Intel Corp. shares
INTC,
were up 2.8% in afternoon trading Friday and flirting with their highest close in more than 15 months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The stock traded as high as $38.99 earlier in the session and recently changed hands at $38.86. A close above $38.86 and below $39.71 would make for the stock’s highest finish since July 28, 2022. Friday’s rally comes on a day of strength for chip stocks, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
up nearly 4%. Earlier Friday, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.
TSM,
posted a 34.8% sequential increase in revenue for the month of October in a positive signal for the sector.
Tag: PHLX Semiconductor Index
-
Intel’s stock flirts with highest close in 15 months
+2.80% +4.04% +6.35% -
Nvidia’s stock closes marginally higher, but just short of a record
Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
+0.10%
shares failed to close at a record high Thursday after the AI-chip maker’s stellar earnings report initially boosted shares past $500 for the first time. Shares rose 0.1% to close at $471.74, after trading as high as $502.66 intraday, but fell short of the record closing high of $474.94 set on July 18, according to FactSet data. The earnings report took chipmakers on a ride Thursday, falling from an initial show of strength following the report. Nvidia shares are up more than 222% on a year-to-date basis, compared with a 37% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
-3.35% ,
a 14% rise in the S&P 500
SPX,
-1.35%
and a 29% surge in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-1.87%
over the same span. -
Nvidia’s stock drops below key uptrend tracker, snapping longest streak above it in 6 years
Nvidia Corp.’s stock chart now shows that the stunning uptrend investors in the semiconductor maker have enjoyed this year amid all the artificial-intelligence hype may have ended.
But as history suggests, after a long uptrend, rather than a new downtrend, investors may have to endure some whipsaw action within a relatively static trading range over the next several months before the uptrend resumes.
The stock
NVDA,
-0.72%
slumped 4.7% on Wednesday to close at $425.54, which was 10.4% below the July 18 record close of $474.94, following a downbeat earnings report from Super Micro Computer Inc.
SMCI,
+3.47% ,
which counts Nvidia as a key supplier.Many on Wall Street believe a correction is defined by a decline of at least 10% to up to 20% from a significant recent peak. A drop of 20% or more is thought of as a bear market.
But perhaps more important for chart followers, the stock closed below the widely followed 50-day moving average for the first time since Jan. 6, 2023. The 50-DMA had extended to $429.03 on Wednesday.
FactSet, MarketWatch
On Thursday, the stock bounced 0.5% in morning trading but held below the 50-DMA, which extended to $429.68, according to FactSet. Despite the recent correction, the stock was still up 192.6% year to date, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX
has climbed 43.7% and the S&P 500
SPX
has advanced 17.2%.Read: Nvidia is ‘domination’ and could unlock $300 billion in AI revenue by 2027, analyst says.
The 50-DMA is used by many chart watchers as a short-term trend tracker. If the stock is above that line, it is viewed as being in an uptrend. The most time spent above that line, the stronger the uptrend.
Until Wednesday, Nvidia’s stock closed above the 50-DMA for 146 consecutive trading sessions, according to FactSet data, which is the second-longest stretch since it went public in January 1999.
The record stretch above the 50-DMA was 255 sessions, a streak that ended on Feb. 23, 2017, while the second-longest stretch of 143 sessions ended on Oct. 28, 2020.
After the stock snapped the super-50-DMA streak in 2020, it waffled around the line and was little changed for the next several months before resuming the uptrend with a big spike.
As an uptrend takes a several-month pause after the 50-DMA breaks, the 200-DMA becomes strong support.
FactSet, MarketWatch
As the chart above shows, after the 50-DMA broke, investors set their sights on the 200-DMA, which many view as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. In this case, despite a one-day dip below the 200-DMA in mid-March 2021, the line acted as strong support.
And after the record super-50-DMA streak, the stock seesawed around the line, while having a slightly negative bias for the next few months, before the uptrend resumed in force.
After the 50-DMA break, the 200-DMA was never threatened.
FactSet, MarketWatch
This time, the stock never really threatened the 200-DMA.
In the current technical situation, one of the downside levels to keep an eye on is the bear-market threshold of 20% below the July closing high, which comes in at $379.95. Another level to watch is the 200-DMA, which currently extends to $269.63 and has been rising by $1.65 a day over the past 10 days.
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Intel Stock Drops Despite Plan for Cost Savings. This Is Why.
Chip maker
Intel
offered positive news on its foundry business Wednesday as it continues to build out new facilities to expand the custom chip-making service. Investors sold the stock anyway. -
Qualcomm stock drops more than 7% after poor outlook, months-long chip glut
Qualcomm Inc. shares fell in the extended session Wednesday following the chip maker’s poor outlook, and estimates of about two months or more of inventory it needs to clear in its core business.
Qualcomm
QCOM,
-4.12%
shares dropped 7.6% after hours, following a 4.1% decline to close at $112.50 in the regular session. In late July, the San Diego-based chip maker cut its forecast because of weakness in the smartphone market that had yet to creep into the premium handset market.On the call with analysts, Chief Executive Cristiano Amon said the accelerated weak demand was related to “macro economic headwinds and the prolonged COVID in China,” and “the rapid deterioration in demand and easing of supply constraints” across the chip industry.” would take out about 80 cents a share in first-quarter earnings.
“It’s the major factor,” Amon told analysts on the call. “It’s mostly a handset consumer story.” Earnings for the first quarter, as a results, would take a hit of 80 cents a share, the company said.
Another big factor is that companies are just spending less. Amon said “companies across the board had much higher inventory policies, supply chain got resolved, and you got that macro economic uncertainty, you have a drawdown trying to bring inventory to a different level than it was during the situation of demand constraint.”
Qualcomm forecast first-quarter earnings of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion to $10 billion, while the Street estimated $3.43 a share on revenue of $12.02 billion.
Read: Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting
Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala told analysts there is about eight to 10 weeks of elevated in the channel. In the meantime, Qualcomm was instituting a hiring freeze, and looking into cost-saving measures, execs told analysts.
While handset-chip sales surged 40% to a record $6.57 billion from a year ago, topping the Street’s expectation of $6.55 billion, the company’s forecast indicates a big glut in inventory in Qualcomm’s CDMA Technologies unit, the one that includes handset and RF chips as well as chips for autos and Internet of Things.
Qualcomm expects QCT sales of $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion, and sales from Qualcomm’s technology licensing, or QTL, segment of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion. Analysts had forecast forecast $10.42 billion in QCT sales and QTL revenue of $1.71 billion.
Qualcomm reported fourth-quarter QCT revenue of $9.9 billion, a 28% gain from a year ago. Analysts had estimated $9.84 billion, based on the company’s forecast of $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion.
Fourth-quarter auto-chip sales zoomed up 58% to a record $427 million, and Internet of Things, or IoT, sales rose 24% to a record $1.92 billion. The Street was expecting auto sales of $362.4 million, and IoT sales of $1.82 billion.
Revenue from the QTL segment fell 8% to $1.44 billion compared with Wall Street estimates of $1.58 billion, based on a company forecast of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion.
Read about: Intel’s quarterly results, AMD’s quarterly results
The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $2.87 billion, or $2.54 a share, compared with $2.8 billion, or $2.45 a share, in the year-ago period. The chip maker reported adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, of $3.13 a share, compared with $2.55 a share in the year-ago period. Total revenue for the third quarter rose to $11.4 billion from $9.34 billion in the year-ago period.
Analysts had estimated earnings of $3.13 a share on revenue of $11.32 billion, based on Qualcomm’s forecast of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $11 billion to $11.8 billion.
Year to date, Qualcomm shares are down 38%, compared with a 41% decline for the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
-3.09% ,
a 21% decline by the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-2.50%
and a 33% drop by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
-3.36% .Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
-1.73%
outperformed the broader market Wednesday after the chip maker said it would clear excess inventory by the end of the year, and forecast that data-center and embedded product sales would continue to rise. -
Qualcomm stock drops more than 7% after poor outlook, months-long chip glut
Qualcomm Inc. shares fell in the extended session Wednesday following the chip maker’s poor outlook, and estimates of about two months or more of inventory it needs to clear in its core business.
Qualcomm
QCOM,
-4.12%
shares dropped 7.6% after hours, following a 4.1% decline to close at $112.50 in the regular session. In late July, the San Diego-based chip maker cut its forecast because of weakness in the smartphone market that had yet to creep into the premium handset market.On the call with analysts, Chief Executive Cristiano Amon said the accelerated weak demand was related to “macro economic headwinds and the prolonged COVID in China,” and “the rapid deterioration in demand and easing of supply constraints” across the chip industry.” would take out about 80 cents a share in first-quarter earnings.
“It’s the major factor,” Amon told analysts on the call. “It’s mostly a handset consumer story.” Earnings for the first quarter, as a results, would take a hit of 80 cents a share, the company said.
Another big factor is that companies are just spending less. Amon said “companies across the board had much higher inventory policies, supply chain got resolved, and you got that macro economic uncertainty, you have a drawdown trying to bring inventory to a different level than it was during the situation of demand constraint.”
Qualcomm forecast first-quarter earnings of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion to $10 billion, while the Street estimated $3.43 a share on revenue of $12.02 billion.
Read: Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting
Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala told analysts there is about eight to 10 weeks of elevated in the channel. In the meantime, Qualcomm was instituting a hiring freeze, and looking into cost-saving measures, execs told analysts.
While handset-chip sales surged 40% to a record $6.57 billion from a year ago, topping the Street’s expectation of $6.55 billion, the company’s forecast indicates a big glut in inventory in Qualcomm’s CDMA Technologies unit, the one that includes handset and RF chips as well as chips for autos and Internet of Things.
Qualcomm expects QCT sales of $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion, and sales from Qualcomm’s technology licensing, or QTL, segment of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion. Analysts had forecast forecast $10.42 billion in QCT sales and QTL revenue of $1.71 billion.
Qualcomm reported fourth-quarter QCT revenue of $9.9 billion, a 28% gain from a year ago. Analysts had estimated $9.84 billion, based on the company’s forecast of $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion.
Fourth-quarter auto-chip sales zoomed up 58% to a record $427 million, and Internet of Things, or IoT, sales rose 24% to a record $1.92 billion. The Street was expecting auto sales of $362.4 million, and IoT sales of $1.82 billion.
Revenue from the QTL segment fell 8% to $1.44 billion compared with Wall Street estimates of $1.58 billion, based on a company forecast of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion.
Read about: Intel’s quarterly results, AMD’s quarterly results
The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $2.87 billion, or $2.54 a share, compared with $2.8 billion, or $2.45 a share, in the year-ago period. The chip maker reported adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, of $3.13 a share, compared with $2.55 a share in the year-ago period. Total revenue for the third quarter rose to $11.4 billion from $9.34 billion in the year-ago period.
Analysts had estimated earnings of $3.13 a share on revenue of $11.32 billion, based on Qualcomm’s forecast of $3 to $3.30 a share on revenue of $11 billion to $11.8 billion.
Year to date, Qualcomm shares are down 38%, compared with a 41% decline for the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
-3.09% ,
a 21% decline by the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-2.50%
and a 33% drop by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
-3.36% .Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
-1.73%
outperformed the broader market Wednesday after the chip maker said it would clear excess inventory by the end of the year, and forecast that data-center and embedded product sales would continue to rise. -
Dow books 630-point drop after strong jobs data rattles investors, but stocks cement weekly gains
U.S. stocks finished sharply lower Friday, but still booked their best weekly gains in a month, after September jobs data showed an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate that’s anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep tightening monetary policy.
Investors also weighed a profit warning at a leading microchip maker ahead of next week’s increase in quarterly earnings results.
What happened
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-2.11%
fell 630.15 points, or 2.1%, ending at 29,296.79, but off the session low of 29,142.66. -
The S&P 500
SPX,
-2.80%
dropped 104.86 points, or 2.8%, closing at 3,639.66. -
The Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-3.80%
shed 420.91 points, or 3.8%, to finish at 10,652.40.
Stocks posted back-to-back losses, trimming weekly gains, but recorded their best weekly gains since Sept. 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Read: Will the stock market be open on Columbus Day?
What drove markets
Stocks recorded sharp losses Friday after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% from an August reading of 3.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%.
Still, a powerful rally earlier in the week boosted all three major stock indexes to weekly gains, a departure from three straight weekly losses, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
“It’s manic. We are all on edge,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management, of the sharp market swings.
“Any piece of good news is a cause for an explosive rally,” Engelke said by phone. On the flip side, he pegged technology-based trading “in an illiquid and emotional market” as exacerbating Friday’s selloff.
“It’s a reflection that people have re-entered the mind-set that the Fed is going to be raising rates at a rapid clip, probably for longer than what they might have suspected at the start of the week,” said Robert Pavlik, a senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management, by phone.
Pavlik expects the Fed to keep tightening financial conditions to try to head off inflation. “But once we turn the corner, and the economy slows down, the Fed probably will be more aggressive in cutting rates on the way down.”
In addition, the Fed has been “draining liquidity from the system at a remarkable pace,” wrote Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, in a Friday client note, while pointing to an astounding $1.3 trillion decline in the central bank’s balance sheet since the December 2021 peak.
Pavlik at Dakota Wealth said he anticipates the Fed will start slowing interest rate hikes by mid-next year, which likely means continued pressure for the stock market, particularly with a backdrop of big oil-price
CL00,
+5.37%
gains this week after global crude producers voted to cut monthly production and with the U.S. dollar’s
DXY,
+0.44%
surge this year against a basket of rival currencies.U.S. crude oil prices climbed for a fifth day in a row on Friday to settle at $92.64 a barrel, while booking at 16.5% weekly gain.
New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that benchmark interest rates likely need to hit 4.5% over time. The Fed’s policy rate now sits in a 3%-3.25% range, up from a zero-0.25% range a year ago.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.889%
climbed to 3.883% Friday, as the key metric used to gauge the affordability of credit for businesses, household and the economy posted 10 straight weeks of gains, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Read: Bond markets facing historic losses grow anxious of Fed that ‘isn’t blinking yet’
Investors continued to hope for relief on the inflation front and will be monitoring next week’s release of the September consumer-price index, as well as corporate earnings season as it picks up.
Companies in focus
-
Twitter Inc.
TWTR,
-0.43%
shares fell 0.4% Friday after a judge delayed a looming trial between the company and Elon Musk to allow the Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-6.32%
CEO more time to close his $44 billion acquisition of the social media platform. - Besides the jobs report, investors weighed a profit warning from microchip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, which said the PC market weakened significantly during the quarter. AMD shares fell 13.9%, and rivals including Nvidia Corp. NVDA and Intel Corp. INTC also closed lower.
-
U.S. cannabis stocks were choppy Friday, with the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF
MSOS,
-2.80%
ending lower, following steep gains earlier in the week after President Joe Biden said the U.S. would consider de-scheduling cannabis from its current position as a Schedule 1 narcotic under federal law.
—Steven Goldstein contributed reporting to this article
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average
