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Tag: Phillies Analysis

  • World Baseball Classic: Risky business for Phillies’ rotation?

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    Honoring your country is second to none. Especially in baseball, a game that captivates nations worldwide.

    When players put on their country’s colors with a chance to win it all, the competitive instinct kicks in on a different level.

    Just ask the Phillies’ starting rotation.

    Cristopher Sánchez, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker will all compete in this spring’s World Baseball Classic. Sanchez represents the Dominican Republic, Nola suits up for Italy and Walker returns to Mexico for the second consecutive tournament.

    It’s exciting to see Philadelphia represented on that stage before the season kicks off. There’s also concern. The Phillies send more Major League starters to the Classic than any other club in the league.

    Who will stay back? Jesús Luzardo, Andrew Painter and Zack Wheeler.

    Luzardo, currently on Team Venezuela’s reserve list, called it a “tough” decision via MLB Network, but coming off a career-high 183.2 innings and entering his final year before free agency, he opted out. Venezuela’s ace Pablo López recently tore his UCL, but the club elevated another arm rather than turning to Luzardo.

    If Venezuela makes it beyond the first round, the lefty could be in play, though.

    Jesus Luzardo and Brandon Marsh spoke on how Luzardo looked in his first live batting practice session of spring training.

    Painter is a rookie making a push for a rotation spot. Wheeler will return from thoracic outlet syndrome, likely missing the first month of the season.

    The rotation has been a strength of this club for years. In 2026, the bullpen may carry more weight — mainstay Ranger Suárez signed a five-year deal with the Red Sox this winter, leaving a void in the starting staff.

    How much Sánchez, Nola and Walker actually pitch in the Classic remains to be seen.

    On Sunday, Tarik Skubal announced he’d start just one game for Team USA. On Tuesday, Paul Skenes and Logan Webb told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic they’d start twice each.

    Worth noting: up until the 2023 WBC, no Phillies starter who made more than 10 starts that respective season had ever appeared in the tournament, across four editions in 2006, 2009, 2013 and 2017.

    Nobody wants to speculate about injuries. But the Phillies, champing at a World Series bit, can’t afford one. These pitchers want to win for their countries. The club just needs them healthy in late March.

    Rob Thomson has been clear that he considers representing one’s country an honor, but the length of the leash for each of his starters in the tournament will become clear soon enough.

    He’s also noted that an earlier ramp-up that the WBC provides could benefit a pitcher like Nola. There are positives and negatives to weigh.

    On the bullpen side, the representation is thinner. Brad Keller, who signed to a two-year, $22 million deal this offseason, will pitch for Team USA. José Alvarado had his insurance denied.

    Closer Jhoan Duran will not participate at all. He’s their most important late-inning arm, and there’s no appetite for preseason risk there. Think Edwin Díaz’s knee injury in the WBC four seasons ago.

    Mets closer Edwin Díaz is expected to miss the entire 2023 MLB season after suffering a right knee injury while celebrating Puerto Rico’s WBC win. Here are some other athletes who have injured themselves celebrating.

    NEED DEPTH?

    Before Spring Training opened, Dave Dombrowski said the club would still consider adding starting pitching depth, whether through free agency or a trade.

    The remaining free agent market isn’t appealing. The Phillies are already paying a 110% luxury tax on every dollar over the threshold, which tightens the financial calculus considerably. Nestor Cortes, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Anderson and Tony Gonsolin are affordable options, but none project into a legitimate rotation role.

    Could Dombrowski revisit his own playbook?

    Last December, he sent the Phillies’ No. 4 prospect Starlyn Caba and No. 23 prospect Emaarion Boyd to Miami for Luzardo, carrying two years of team control during the Marlins’ annual rebuild.

    Jul 15, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; American League pitcher Drew Rasmussen (57) of the Tampa Bay Rays in the fifth inning during the 2025 MLB All Star Game at Truist Park (Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images)

    A comparable target this winter could be Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen. The 30-year-old made his first All-Star team in 2025, going 10-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP across 31 starts. Despite reaching that workload, he threw just 150 innings. Tampa Bay’s outlook for 2026 is bleak, which could open the door.

    The financial fit is hard to overlook. Rasmussen is owed $4.25 million this season with a club option for another $4.25 million. With the luxury tax factored in, his total cost lands at $8.925 million — well below what free agent arms like Lucas Giolito or Zack Littell would command once the tax is applied.

    The Phillies want to get through Spring Training clean. But a case can be made that this rotation needs not just depth, but talent. The WBC questions are present, and they may be exactly what pushes the front office to act.

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    Cole Weintraub

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  • All eyes on Bryce: His path back to ‘elite’ and what he needs from Phils

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    Just over a month ago, Dave Dombrowski sat in the media room at Citizens Bank Park across from reporters following the Phillies’ fourth straight postseason exit.

    The president of baseball operations kept things honest — maybe a little too honest.

    Arguably the biggest takeaway from his 54-minute end-of-season press conference was about Bryce Harper. Dombrowski was blunt about the two-time MVP’s 2025 campaign and his outlook moving forward.

    “He’s still an All-Star-caliber player. He didn’t have an elite season like he has had in the past. And I guess we only find out if he becomes elite or he continues to be good,” he said. “Can he rise to the next level again? I don’t really know that answer. He’s the one that will dictate that more than anything else.”

    Dombrowski continued: “I don’t think he’s content with the year that he had. And again, it wasn’t a bad year. But when you think of Bryce Harper, you think of elite, right? You think of one of the top 10 players in baseball, and I don’t think it fit into that category.”

    In 2025, the 32-year-old Harper slashed .261/.357/.487 with 27 home runs and 75 RBIs. His .844 OPS was his lowest in a season since joining the Phillies and his lowest overall since his age-23 year in 2016. He also played through nagging injuries.

    Bryce Harper gave details on his wrist injury and why he’s hitting the 10-day injury list.

    He spent just over three weeks on the injured list in June with right wrist inflammation — an issue he’d felt earlier in the season.

    A week after the press conference, with Harper trade chatter swirling, Dombrowski went on Foul Territory and tried to pull things back.

    “First of all, to me, Bryce Harper is one of the best players in the game of baseball,” Dombrowski said. “Now I’ve been reading that, oh, the Phillies may trade Bryce Harper. That couldn’t be further from the truth. We love him.”

    Still, Harper didn’t take Dombrowski’s initial comments lightly. In an interview with Matt Gelb of The Athletic, he said, “I have given my all to Philly from the start. Now there is trade talk? I made every effort to avoid this … It makes me feel uncomfortable.” He later added, “It’s disappointing to hear me being questioned about my contribution to the team. Just really hurt by that notion because I love Philly so much.”

    Harper, who has no opt-out and a full no-trade clause, pointed out why the whole thing stung. “I wanted these fans to know Philly is my home, so from the start, I made the commitment to stay here for the rest of my career. No opt-out, even though I was advised otherwise,” he expressed. “From changing positions to coming back early from injury, I show total commitment for my team. And yet there is still trade talk.”

    So now that his “elite” status is under the microscope, what can the Phillies expect from Harper in 2026?

    Protect him.

    Credit: Eric Hartline – Imagn Images

    It all begins with lineup help.

    Harper has lived in the 3-hole since arriving in 2019. In 2025, he rarely had consistent protection behind him. The cleanup spot produced a .720 OPS — 20th in MLB — a steep drop from his best years in Philadelphia.

    Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto carried most of those at-bats this past season. Castellanos, 33, posted a .651 OPS in 214 plate appearances out of the four-spot; Realmuto, 34, had a .683 mark in 180 trips there.

    Both of those names have offered real protection for Harper before.

    His best two seasons as a Phillie came in 2021 and 2023.

    In 2021, Harper put up a league-leading 1.044 OPS on his way to a second MVP. As a team, the Phillies had an .819 OPS — fifth-best in the National League. Realmuto did most of the cleanup work that year and hit .287 with an .832 OPS in that role.

    In 2023, Harper slashed .293/.401/.499 (.900 OPS). The Phillies’ overall OPS jumped to .822, helped by Castellanos’ 15 homers and .300/.339/.514 line in the four-hole.

    The pattern is obvious: when the cleanup spot is a threat, Harper’s numbers jump off the page.

    In 2025, that wasn’t the case. The Phillies need a steady right-handed hitter behind him.

    The Alonso question and a first-base pivot

    Sep 3, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New York Mets player Pete Alonso (20) hits an RBI double in the third inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

    Credit: Rick Osentoski – Imagn Images

    One way to get there is the scenario that keeps coming up: Harper moving back to right field.

    Dombrowski has publicly pushed back on that this offseason, saying the front office views Harper as its first baseman. But if Harper returned to the outfield, it would open the door to pursue a true middle-of-the-order bat at first — someone like Pete Alonso.

    Alonso hit 38 homers and drove in 126 runs in 2025, while also leading the league in doubles. Even with some swing-and-miss, that kind of production behind Harper would change how pitchers game-plan entirely.

    His market could be shaped by fellow free-agent first baseman Josh Naylor. On Monday, the 30-year-old signed a five-year, $92.5 million deal after a year in which he hit .295 with 20 homers, 92 RBIs and 30 steals. Naylor is two-and-a-half years younger than Alonso, and his $18.5 million AAV could keep Alonso’s asking price from getting out of control.

    If the Phillies want to push Harper back toward “elite,” adding a legitimate right-handed bat behind him is the clearest path.

    The analytics point up, a tad

    For as much as Dombrowski’s comments have been dissected, Harper’s underlying metrics in 2025 actually trended the right way compared with his 30-homer, .898 OPS season in 2024.

    His barrel rate, hard-hit percentage and bat speed all ticked up. His walk rate improved. His strikeout rate went down. The line on the back of the baseball card may have dipped, but the advanced numbers did not scream decline.

    The lack of pitches to hit was real, too. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com noted that among hitters who saw at least 200 pitches, Harper saw strikes only 43 percent of the time — the lowest rate of any of the 532 qualified players. That’s what happens when there is a lack of protection.

    It’s fair for the Phillies’ front office to ask whether he’ll be “elite” again at 33 and beyond. It’s also fair to point out that a .844 OPS during an injury-riddled season is still star-level production.

    What to expect in 2026

    Regardless of how you interpret the comments, there’s no question about Harper’s dedication — or his importance to the Phillies. He has a no-trade clause, chose no opt-out when he signed and has been vocal about wanting to finish his career in Philadelphia.

    The front office’s responsibility now is straightforward: build a lineup that gives Harper a chance to produce at a higher level. That starts with real protection behind him.

    If Harper is healthy, it’s not hard to envision a return closer to his 2021 and 2023 production than what he posted in 2025.

    The word “elite” is going to hover around Harper all season. Dombrowski and the Phils will expect star-level production from the eight-time All-Star — and Harper has made it clear he’ll do everything he can to make that happen.

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    Cole Weintraub

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  • Scorching Phillies slash NL East magic number to 1 with comeback win 

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    The scorching Phillies are on the verge of cementing the 2025 NL East crown.

    The Phils won their sixth straight game in comeback fashion Saturday night at Citizens Bank Park, earning an 8-6 victory over the Royals. 

    Their NL East magic number sits at one ahead of Sunday afternoon’s series finale. The Mets remained in a dramatic free fall Saturday, blowing a 2-0 eighth-inning lead to the Rangers and losing an eighth consecutive game. 

    Taijuan Walker tallied the win for the Phillies. He threw five innings, allowed seven hits and four runs, struck out three and walked one. 

    Walker looked on his way to a much cleaner start than his four-run first inning last time out against the Marlins, but the first inning’s final out was a struggle. 

    Vinnie Pasquantino doubled with two outs. A Maikel Garcia liner zoomed past Bryson Stott’s dive and into left-center field. Salvador Perez lifted a high full-count cutter 398 feet. All told, Walker wound up conceding three runs and five hits in the first. 

    The Phillies took no time to trim their deficit against Royals righty Ryan Bergert. Brandon Marsh delivered a two-out, two-RBI double to left in the bottom of the first. Over his past seven games, Marsh has eight extra-base hits and eight RBIs. 

    Perez did it again in the third inning. He ripped an 0-2 Walker splitter for his 300th career homer. 

    The Phils pulled to within 4-3 in their half of the third. Harrison Bader led off with a single to post a sixth consecutive game with multiple hits. He’s 15 for 29 over that stretch. After Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto walked, Bader sprinted home on J.T. Realmuto’s sacrifice fly. 

    The Royals brought in lefty reliever Angel Zerpa to begin the fifth inning and Schwarber clubbed his third pitch over the right-field fence. He’s at 51 home runs with 13 games to go. 

    Bryce Harper then walked, Realmuto reached on an infield single, and Marsh chopped a grounder to second that advanced both runners into scoring position. Nick Castellanos pinch-hit for Max Kepler and came through, hitting a fly ball to center that was easily deep enough to score Harper and put the Phils on top. Otto Kemp — yet another Phillie on a hot streak — followed by nailing an RBI double off of the left-field wall. 

    Walker gave the Phillies scoreless fourth and fifth innings. Tanner Banks was flawless in the sixth and Schwarber provided an insurance run in the bottom of the frame with an RBI single.

    Kansas City got a run back against Matt Strahm in the seventh … and Marsh replied by clobbering a leadoff homer. As a team, the Phils have 42 runs and 64 hits across the last five games.

    The Royals stayed in the contest and scored on David Robertson in the eighth, but Jhoan Duran locked down his 14th save in 15 opportunities as a Phillie.

    While there’s bigger games on the horizon, the 89-60 Phillies’ performances of late haven’t lacked focus whatsoever.

    “We’ve got goals beyond just getting in or winning the division,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said pregame. “So we’ve just got to keep going, keep winning series. Including this one, we’ve got five series left. And that’s the goal, to win every series.”

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    Noah Levick

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