Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella arrives to court in San Francisco on June 28, 2023. Microsoft and Activision Blizzard CEOs are expected to testify to persuade a federal judge in California to reject the Federal Trade Commission’s effort to block their $69 billion deal.
Shelby Knowles | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A group of roughly 600 software testers at Activision on Friday formed the U.S. video game industry’s largest union so far.
The union is the first to organize under a new labor agreement negotiated as part of Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of Activision in October, the company’s largest takeover yet.
The agreement required Microsoft to remain neutral about employees who express interest in unionizing and provide adequate lines of communication and information for those workers to decide. That labor neutrality agreement took effect after the Microsoft-Activision deal closed in October following months of regulatory pushback.
“We maintained our commitment to remain neutral during the organizing campaign, and following this vote,” Microsoft lawyer Amy Pannoni said in a statement.
Activision Quality Assurance United-CWA, the name of the union, is seeking higher wages and more career opportunities, QA tester Kara Fannon said in a statement.
The employees, who work for Activision’s quality assurance division in California, Texas and Minnesota, joined the Communications Workers of America to form their record-breaking alliance.
“Microsoft continues to keep its commitment to let workers decide for themselves whether they want a union,”said CWA President Claude Cummings Jr. in a statement.
Labor organizing in the tech industry has proliferated over the years as Big Tech firms have grown and come under more scrutiny for worker protections.
QA workers at Activision, who vet games for glitches and bugs, have particularly emphasized the need for labor protections, noticing their roles feeling undervalued compared to software engineers or developers.
Before the Microsoft-Activision deal closed, QA workers at the video game-maker’s Albany branch had also formed a union.
“QA is currently an undervalued discipline in the games and software industries,” the Albany wrote on social media at the time. “We strive to foster work environments where we are respected and compensated for our essential role in the development process.”
Black women are outpacing Black men when it comes homebuying.
Single female homebuyers are most common among Black women, representing 27% of Black homebuyers, according to the 2023 Snapshot of Race and Home Buying in America report by the National Association of Realtors. To compare, single women represent 24% of Asian homebuyers, 17% of white buyers and 7% of Hispanic buyers.
Female buyers represented 32.4% of all Black homebuyers between October 2017 and September 2018, according to a 2022 data analysis by Realtor.com. The share jumped to 35.4% from October 2020 to September 2021.
The share of Black female homebuyers grew at an average annual rate of 7.3% from October 2018 to January 2020. Black male buyers only grew at an annual rate of 3.4% during the same period, Realtor.com found.
But single Black women buyers still face plenty of challenges.
“There are instances where Black people are buying homes, Black women are buying homes. That doesn’t mean that it’s easy for them and that doesn’t mean that it’s not being made unnecessarily difficult by certain societal hurdles that stand in the way, that should not exist,” said Jacob Channel, a senior economist at LendingTree.
“I think it’s demonstrably true if you’re a Black woman in America, you’re probably going to have a harsh time buying a house in many circumstances,” he said.
1. Education debt: While Black women are becoming more educated, it also means they are more likely to have student loans. Compared to other female undergraduate borrowers, Black women carry the most undergraduate student loan debt, averaging $41,466.05 a year after graduation, according to Bankrate.Â
Higher student loan debt can make it harder to save for a down payment and qualify for mortgages. Lenders consider student loan payments when figuring out how much you can afford.
2. Mortgage access: Lending standards in the early 2000s were more relaxed than they are today, said Channel. Single Black women were less likely to be homeowners in 2021 compared to 2007, according to a report by the National Women’s Law Center.
That said, those who got mortgages before the Great Recession often didn’t fare well: Banks were more likely to offer Black women high-cost mortgages and when the housing market crashed, women of color were overrepresented in foreclosures, the report found.
During the Great Recession, Black women were 256% more likely to have a subprime mortgage compared to white male borrowers of similar economic circumstances, said Sarah Hassmer, director of housing justice at the National Women’s Law Center.Â
3. Low-wage jobs: Black women, as well as Latinas, are also disproportionately represented in low-wage jobs such as child care and hospitality work.
“These jobs are vastly undervalued but critical to our economy,” Hassmer said.
The median hourly wage of a child care worker in 2022 was $13.71 per hour, or $28,520 annually, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Â
“That makes it very hard to afford a down payment, which is one of the biggest obstacles to afford a home,” Hassmer said.
As consumers watch their wallets, companies have felt pressure from investors to do the same. Executives have sought to show shareholders that they’re adjusting to consumer demand as it returns to typical patterns or even softens, as well as aggressively countering higher expenses.
Airlines, automakers, media companies and package giant UPS are all digesting new labor contracts that gave raises to tens of thousands of workers and drove costs higher.
Companies in years past could get away with passing on higher costs to customers who were willing to splurge on everything from new appliances to beach vacations. But businesses’ pricing power has waned, so executives are looking for other ways to manage the budget â or squeeze out more profits, said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY.
“You are in an environment where cost fatigue is very much part of the equation for consumers and business leaders,” Daco said. “The cost of most everything is much higher than it was before the pandemic, whether it’s goods, inputs, equipment, labor, even interest rates.”
There are some exceptions to the recent cost-cutting wave: Walmart, for example, said last month that it would build or convert more than 150 stores over the next five years, along with a more than $9 billion investment to modernize many of its current stores.
And some companies, such as banks, already made deep cuts. Five of the largest banks, including Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, together eliminated more than 20,000 jobs in 2023. Now, they’re awaiting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that would free up cash for pent-up mergers and acquisitions.
But cost reductions unveiled in even just the first few weeks of the year amount to tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars. In January, U.S. companies announced 82,307 job cuts, more than double the number in December, while still down 20% from a year ago, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas.
And the tightening of months prior is already showing up in financial reports.
So far this earnings season, results have indicated that companies have focused on driving profits higher without the tailwind of big price increases and sales growth.
As of mid-February, more than three-quarters of the S&P 500 had reported fourth-quarter results, with far more earnings beats than revenue beats. The quarter’s earnings, measured by a composite of S&P 500 companies, are on pace to rise nearly 10%. Revenues, however, are up a more modest 3.4%.
And the layoffs haven’t been contained to tech. UPS said it was axing 12,000 jobs, saving the company $1 billion, CEO Carol Tome said late last month, citing softer demand. Many of the largest retail, media and entertainment companies have also announced workforce reductions, in addition to other cuts.
Warner Bros. Discovery has slashed content spending and headcount as part of $4 billion in total cost savings from the merger of Discovery and WarnerMedia. Disney initially promised $5.5 billion in cost reductions in 2023, fueled by 7,000 layoffs. The company has since increased its savings promise to $7.5 billion, and executives suggested in its Feb. 7 quarterly earnings report that it may exceed that target.
JetBlue Airways, which hasn’t posted an annual profit since before the pandemic, is deferring about $2.5 billion in capital expenditures on new Airbus planes to the end of the decade, culling unprofitable routes and redeploying aircraft in addition to the worker buyouts.
Some cuts are even making their way to the front of the cabin. United Airlines, which also posted a profit in 2023, at the start of this year said it would serve first-class meals only on flights more than 900 miles, up from 800 miles previously. “On flights that are 301 to 900 miles, United First customers can expect an offering from the premium snack basket,” according to an internal post.
Several of the country’s largest automakers, such as General Motors and Ford Motor, have lowered spending by billions of dollars through reduced or delayed investments on all-electric vehicles. The U.S.-based companies as well as others, such as Netherlands-based Stellantis, have recently reduced headcount and payroll through voluntary buyouts or layoffs.
Even Chipotle, which reported more foot traffic and sales at its restaurants in the most recently reported quarter, is chasing higher productivity by testing an avocado-scooping robot called the Autocado that shortens the time it takes to make guacamole. It’s also testing another robot that can put together burrito bowls and salads. The robots, if expanded to other stores, could help cut costs by minimizing food waste or reducing the number of workers needed for those tasks.
Industry experts have chalked up some recent cuts to companies catching their breath â and taking a hard look at how they operate â after an unusual four-year stretch caused by the pandemic and its fallout.
EY’s Daco said the past few years have been marked by a mismatch in supply and demand when it comes to goods, services and even workers.
Customers went on shopping sprees, fueled by government stimulus and less experience-related spending. Airlines saw demand disappear and then skyrocket. Companies furloughed workers in the early pandemic and then struggled to fill jobs.
He said he expects companies this year to “search for an equilibrium.”
“You’re seeing a rebalancing happening in the labor markets, in the capital markets,” he said. “And that rebalancing is still going to play out and gradually lead to a more sustainable environment of lower inflation and lower interest rates, and perhaps a little bit slower growth.”
The auto industry, for example, faced a supply issue during much of the Covid pandemic but is now facing a potential demand problem. Inventories of new vehicles are rising â surpassing 2.5 million units and 71 days’ supply toward the end of 2023, up 57% year over year, according to Cox Automotive â forcing automakers to extend more discounts in an effort to move cars and trucks off dealer lots.
Automakers have also been contending with slower-than-expected adoption of EVs.
David Silverman, a retail analyst at Fitch Ratings, said companies are “feeling a bit heavy as sales growth moderates and maybe even declines.”
Cost cuts at UPS, Hasbro and Levi all followed sales declines in the most recent fiscal quarter. Macy’s, which reports earnings later this month, has said it expects same-store sales to drop, and there’s early evidence that may come to bear: Consumers pulled back on spending in January, with retail sales falling 0.8%, more than economists expected, according to the latest federal data.
Most major retailers, including Walmart, Target and Home Depot, will report earnings in the coming weeks.
Credit ratings agency Fitch said it doesn’t expect the U.S. economy to tip into recession, but it does anticipate a continued pullback in discretionary spending.
“Part of companies’ decision to lower their expense structure is in line with their views that 2024 may not be a fantastic year from a top-line-growth standpoint,” Silverman said.
Plus, he added, companies have had to find cash to fund investments in newer technology such as infrastructure that supports e-commerce, a resilient supply chain or investments in artificial intelligence.
Companies may have another reason to cut costs now, too. As they see other companies shrinking the size of their workforces or budgets, there’s safety in numbers.
Or as Silverman noted, “layoffs beget layoffs.”
“As companies have started to announce them it becomes normalized,” he said. “There’s less of a stigma.”
Even with rolling layoffs, the labor market remains strong, which may help explain why Wall Street has by and large rewarded those companies that have found areas to save and returned profits to shareholders.
Shares of Meta, for example, almost tripled in price in 2023 in that “year of efficiency,” making the stock the second-best gainer in the S&P 500, behind only Nvidia. After laying off more than 20,000 workers in 2023, Meta on Feb. 2 announced its first-ever dividend and said it expanded its share buyback authorization by $50 billion.
UPS, fresh from job cuts, said it would raise its quarterly dividend by a penny.
Overall, dividends paid by companies in the S&P 500 rose 5.05% last year, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, and he estimated they will likely increase nearly 5.3% this year.
â CNBC’s Michael Wayland, Alex Sherman, Robert Hum, Amelia Lucas and Jonathan Vanian contributed to this story.
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.
A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 31, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
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Wall Street retreats U.S. stocks lost ground on Monday and Treasury yields rose amid lingering concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as much as expected. The blue-chip Dow fell over 200 points. The S&P 500 also slumped after hitting a record high last week. The Nasdaq Composite also dropped 0.2%.
Oil’s supply crunch The oil market faces a supply crunch by the end of 2025 as the world is not replacing crude reserves fast enough, according to Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub. About 97% of the oil produced today was discovered in the 20th century, she told CNBC.
Palantir surges Shares of Palantir spiked 19%in extended trading after the company reported revenue that topped analysts’ estimates. In a letter to shareholders, Palantir CEO Alex Karp said demand for large language models in the U.S. “continues to be unrelenting.”
Red Sea tensions Higher shipping costs due to tensions in the Red Sea could hinder the global fight against inflation, said the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Clare Lombardelli, chief economist at the OECD, told CNBC that shipping-driven inflation pressures remain a risk rather than its base case.
[PRO] Banking allure The banking sector offers attractive opportunities despite an increase in volatility, according to fund manager Cole Smead. “It’s the banks that made bad decisions that are making [other] banks look attractive in pricing,” Smead told CNBC, who picked two bank stocks that are in play.
Investors are once again getting ahead of themselves on the Fed’s next move.
Markets were rattled after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank is unlikely to rush to lower interest rates.
Wall Street has been parsing his hawkish comments, yet in essence what Powell said over the weekend was no different than what he shared at Wednesday’s press conference: that he wants to see more evidence that inflation is coming down to a sustainable level.
Still, the debate over the timing of rate cuts unsettled Fed watchers.
This sparked a sell-off spurred by higher bond yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury spiked for a second day, trading around 4.163%. Typically, higher yields tend to indicate investors think the Fed will take longer to cut rates.
Fresh data out Monday also didn’t help. A new survey showed the U.S. services sector expand at a faster-than-expected clip in January.
This on top of the booming jobs report released Friday, fueled investor worries that rates may stay elevated for much longer.
Wall Street will now look ahead to the swath of Fed speakers this week. Perhaps they will shed more light on the path for rate cuts.
A worker delivers Amazon packages in San Francisco on Oct. 5, 2022.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Amazon is laying off some employees in its Buy with Prime unit, the company confirmed, as it continues to look for ways to trim costs.
The cuts affect fewer than 5% of staff in the Buy with Prime division, Amazon said. Buy with Prime is a service that lets online stores offer the same two-day shipping benefits available to Prime subscribers. Amazon has expanded the program since its launch in April 2022, including tie-ups with Shopify and Salesforce.
Amazon didn’t say how many staffers are in its Buy with Prime segment.
“We regularly review the structure of our teams and make adjustments based on the needs of the business and, following a recent review, we’ve made the difficult decision to eliminate a small number of roles on our Buy with Prime team,” an Amazon spokesperson said in a statement.
The spokesperson said Buy with Prime remains “a top priority for Amazon” and the company plans to continue investing “significant resources” in the program.
Some of the affected employees worked in Amazon’s multichannel fulfillment unit, which sits alongside Buy with Prime under the “Project Santos” organization, overseen by Peter Larsen, a longtime vice president at the company, a person with knowledge of the cuts said. Multichannel fulfillment allows merchants to ship and store products using Amazon’s services regardless of whether they’re selling on the home site.
Amazon has cut more than 27,000 jobs across the company as part of rolling layoffs that began in late 2022. Job reductions have continued this year, with Amazon letting go staffers in its Prime Video, MGM, Twitch, Audible and Amazon Pay units last week. Other tech companies including Google, Discord, Xerox and Unity have also announced layoffs since the start of the new year.
Amazon said it’s assisting Buy with Prime employees who were laid off in finding new roles elsewhere within the company. Employees will continue to receive their pay and benefits for at least 60 days, and they will be eligible for a severance package.
Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 17, 2023.
Adam Galica | CNBC
Citigroup said it was cutting 10% of its workforce in a bid to help boost the embattled bank’s results and stock price.
About 20,000 employees will be let go over the “medium term,” New York-based Citigroup said Friday in a slideshow tied to fourth-quarter earnings. While it wasn’t immediately clear how long that is, the bank has previously used that term to denote a three- to five-year period.
Citigroup had roughly 200,000 workers at the end of 2023, excluding Mexican operations that are in the process of being spun out, according to the presentation.
Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser announced a sweeping overhaul of the third-largest U.S. bank by assets in September. The company has been left behind by peers since the 2008 financial crisis as Fraser’s predecessors couldn’t get a handle on expenses and is the lowest valued among the six biggest U.S. banks.
In November, CNBC reported that managers and consultants involved in the effort — known internally by the code name “Project Bora Bora” — discussed job cuts of 10% in several major businesses.
The company has since executed several waves of layoffs, beginning with the top layers of the bank, with another round of cuts set for Jan. 22, according to a person familiar with the matter. A Citigroup spokeswoman declined to comment.
American banks have been trimming jobs all throughout the past year, led by Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, to lower costs amid stagnant revenue. Citigroup had been a notable outlier, maintaining staffing levels at around 240,000 for all of 2023, including its Mexico operations.
Citigroup said Friday it booked a $780 million charge in the fourth quarter tied to Fraser’s restructuring project, and that it may post another $1 billion in severance and other expenses in 2024. The moves could help trim up to $2.5 billion in costs over time, the bank said.
In a footnote to its presentation, Citigroup said the 20,000 job cuts could be “slightly lower” if it chooses to use internal resources rather than outsource functions.
Given the outlook for thousands of more job cuts over the next few years, some Citigroup employees are using vacation time or mental health leave to search for their next position, said the person familiar with the matter, who declined to be identified speaking about personnel matters.
“People are looking aggressively,” the person said. “I know senior VPs who are on vacation now, but they’re never coming back.”
A ‘now hiring’ sign is displayed in a retail store in Manhattan on January 05, 2024 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
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Hot jobs market The U.S. labor market added 216,000 jobs in December. That’s much more than the 170,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, and the downwardly revised 173,000 jobs added in November. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, defying estimates of a 10-basis-point rise. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 4.1% from a year earlier, higher than the 3.9% forecast.
Losing week U.S. stocks inched up slightly Friday, but couldn’t reverse a weekly decline. Treasury yields ticked up for the second day, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.051%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index retreated 0.27%. Retail stocks fell 1.1%, leading sector losses, after data showed German retail sales fell 2.5% for the month, much more than estimates of a 0.1% slide.
Grounded airplanes The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has ordered a temporary grounding of the Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft, which means airlines won’t be able to use those particular Boeing models for flying. The directive comes after a piece of the aircraft blew out in the middle of an Alaska Airlines flight, leaving a gaping hole on the side of the plane.
Potential Apple lawsuit Apple just can’t catch a break. Fresh off a downgrade to its shares by Barclays and Piper Sandler, the technology giant is potentially facing an antitrust lawsuit by the U.S. Department of Justice, according to a report from The New York Times. The lawsuit could target how the Apple Watch works exclusively with the iPhone, as well as the company’s iMessage service, which excludes non-Apple devices.
[PRO] Numbers to watch The U.S. consumer price index report comes out Thursday this week, and will be the major catalyst for markets as investors assess if the U.S. Federal Reserve is edging closer to its goal of keeping inflation at 2%. But don’t neglect Friday, which is jam-packed with earnings reports from big banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America.
The headline number on the U.S. jobs report’s undeniably startling — 216,000 new jobs in December, compared with an expected 170,000. The unemployment rate defied forecasts for it to fall, while average hourly earnings were higher than estimates too.
The data suggests the U.S. labor market’s still running hot despite the 11 interest-rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve.
But the numbers aren’t so drastic that rate hikes could be back on the table. Look more closely and you’ll find pockets of weakness in the report.
The headline number, expectation-busting as it is, probably won’t persuade the Fed to resume hiking.
“While the Dow Jones estimate is for a nonfarm payrolls gain of 170,000, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said the acceptable range is really something like 100,000-250,000,” CNBC’s Jeff Cox noted.
Consider also how October and November’s jobs numbers were downwardly revised, which point to a weaker-than-expected labor market last quarter. And when viewed on an annual basis, 2023 saw job growth of 2.7 million, dramatically lower than 2022’s addition of 4.8 million jobs.
The theme of growth continuing — but slowing — was also seen in December’s ISM services index, which measures business activity, such as price and inventory levels. The reading came in at 50.6%, indicating growth in the service sector, but that’s nearly two percentage points below expectations as well as November’s reading.
That’s probably why stocks managed to eke out small gains Friday, despite the shock of the headline jobs number.
But those marginal increases couldn’t prevent major indexes from registering their first negative week in 10. For the week, the S&P fell 1.52%, the Dow lost 0.59% and the Nasdaq slumped 3.25%, its biggest decline since September.
Investors hoping for a positive catalyst for markets will be keeping their fingers crossed, hoping December’s consumer price index report comes in cooler than expected.
A pedestrian holds an umbrella as they walk along a street in the rain in Times Square, New York, on Sept. 26, 2023.
Ed Jones | AFP | Getty Images
The state of the U.S. economy may be a chief concern among Americans, but 2023 wound up as a pretty good year for the macroenvironment.
Spending remained high, markets posted big gains and the Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation showed signs of cooling — without freezing. Then there’s the almost logic-defying resilience of the job market.
The U.S. labor market ended the year strong, creating more than 200,000 jobs in December, according to figures released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. While previous job creation estimates for October and November were revised downward by a combined 75,000, the unemployment rate remained at a low 3.7%, and December marked the 36th consecutive month of job creation for the U.S. economy.
In total, the U.S. created nearly 2.7 million jobs in 2023, when seasonally adjusted. That figure came despite concerns that the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation through interest rate hikes might cool the labor market and put a chill on consumer spending.
Neither of those concerns came to fruition, however. In fact, consumer spending remained robust throughout the year, with monthly advanced retail sales staying above the $600 million mark for most of 2023, proving that despite many economic headwinds, U.S. consumers could not be deterred.
Here are nine other charts that show how the economy rounded out 2023.
While inflation continues to be top of mind for U.S. consumers, the rate of inflation cooled significantly in 2023. Meanwhile, wages rose throughout the year, eventually outpacing price increases.
U.S. consumers were in a mood to spend, particularly on experiences: 2023 was officially the year that travel rebounded, with the Thanksgiving holiday period breaking U.S. records. Nearly 150 million passengers were screened by the Transportation Security Administration across U.S. airports in November and December.
Americans spent on entertainment, too. With major hits such as “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer” and Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour concert film, the U.S. box office came back in a big way last year from its Covid-19 pandemic lows.
Even assets such as crypto saw a rebound in 2023 after hitting a low in November of the previous year. Bitcoin prices ended the year at almost three times that previous low.
After its historic rate increases in 2022, the Federal Reserve tempered its war on inflation and only raised rates at four of its eight meetings in 2023. While the central bank’s target range for interest rates is the highest it has been since 2006, recent comments from Chair Jerome Powell have Fed watchers optimistic that rate cuts may be coming in 2024.
There were some trouble areas for consumers, however. Mortgage rates continue to be high. The average 30-year fixed rate in October was nearly triple what it was at the end of 2020 — although rates came down significantly by the end of the year — and existing home sales remain low, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Until more housing inventory comes online, those issues are likely to persist into 2024.
Grocery items are offered for sale at a supermarket on August 09, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
When Kyle Connolly looks back at 2023, she sees it as a year defined by changes and challenges.
The newly single parent reentered the workforce, only to be laid off from her job at a custom home-building company in November. At the same time, Connolly has seen prices climb for everything from her Aldi’s grocery basket to her condo’s utility costs.
In turn, she’s cut back on everyday luxuries like eating out or going to the movies. Christmas will look pared down for her three kids compared to years prior.
“I’ve trimmed everything that I possibly can,” said the 41-year-old. “It sucks having to tell my kids no. It sucks when they ask for a little something extra when we’re checking out at the grocery store and having to tell them, ‘No, I’m sorry, we can’t.'”
Economic woes have seemed more apparent within her community in Florida’s panhandle. Connolly has noticed fewer 2022 Chevy Suburbans on the road, replaced by older Toyota Camry models. The waters typically filled with boats have been eerily quiet as owners either sold them or tried to cut back on gas costs. Fellow parents have taken to Facebook groups to discuss ways to better conserve money or rake in extra income.
The struggles among Connolly and her neighbors highlight a key conundrum puzzling economists: Why does the average American feel so bad about an economy that’s otherwise considered strong?
By many accounts, it has been a good year on this front. The annualized rate of price growth is sliding closer to a level preferred by the Federal Reserve, while the labor market has remained strong. There’s rising hope that monetary policymakers have successfully cooled inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.
Yet closely watched survey data from the University of Michigan shows consumer sentiment, while improving, is a far cry from pre-pandemic levels. December’s index reading showed sentiment improved by almost 17% from a year prior, but was still nearly 30% off from where it sat during the same month in 2019.
“The main issue is that high prices really hurt,” said Joanne Hsu, Michigan’s director of consumer surveys. “Americans are still trying to come to grips with the idea that we’re not going back to the extended period of low inflation, low interest rates that we had in the 2010s. And that reality is not the current reality.”
Still, Hsu sees reason for optimism when zooming in. Sentiment has largely improved from its all-time low seen in June 2022 — the same month the consumer price index rose 9.1% from a year earlier — as people started noticing inflationary pressures recede, she said.
One notable caveat was the drop in sentiment this past May, which she tied to the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. The 2024 presidential election has added to feelings of economic uncertainty for some, Hsu said.
Continued strength in the labor market is something economists expected to sweeten everyday Americans’ views of the economy. But because consumers independently decide how they feel, jobs may hold less importance in their mental calculations than inflation.
There are still more job openings than there are unemployed people, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average hourly pay has continued rising — albeit at a slower rate than during the pandemic — and was about 20% higher in November than it was in the same month four years ago, seasonally adjusted Labor Department figures show.
That’s helped boost another widely followed indicator of vibes: the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index. Its preliminary December reading was around 14% lower than the same month in 2019, meaning it has rebounded far more than the Michigan index.
While the Michigan index compiles questions focused on financial conditions and purchasing power, the Conference Board’s more closely gauges one’s feelings about the job market. That puts the latter more in line with data painting a rosier picture of the economy, according to Camelia Kuhnen, a finance professor at the University of North Carolina.
“You think that they’re talking about different countries,” Kuhnen said of the two measures. “They look different because they focus on different aspects of what people would consider as part of their economic reality.”
A hot job market can be a double-edged sword for sentiment, Michigan’s Hsu noted. Yes, it allows workers to clinch better roles or higher pay, she said. But when those same workers put on their consumer hats, a tight market means shorter hours or limited availability at their repair company or veterinarian’s office.
Other reasons why consumers feel positively about the economy this year can only be true for certain — and often wealthier — groups, economists say.
UNC’s Kuhnen said Americans would be pleased if they are homeowners seeing price appreciation. Another reason for optimism: If they had investments during 2023’s stock market rebound.
Without those cushions, people on the lower end of the income spectrum may feel more of a pinch as higher costs bite into any leftover savings from pandemic stimulus, Kuhnen said. Elsewhere, the resumption of student loan payments this year likely also caused discontent for those with outstanding dues, according to Karen Dynan, a Harvard professor and former chief economist for the U.S. Treasury Department.
Marissa Lyda moved with her husband and two kids to Phoenix from Portland earlier this year, in part due to lower housing costs. With profits from the value gained on the property she bought in 2019, her family was able to get a nicer house in the Grand Canyon state.
Yet she’s had to contend with an interest rate that’s more than double what she was paying on her old home. Though Arizona’s lower income tax has fattened her family’s wallet, Lyda has found herself allocating a sizable chunk of that money to her rising grocery bill.
The stay-at-home mom has switched her go-to grocer from Kroger to Walmart as value became increasingly important. She’s also found herself searching harder in the aisles for store-brand food and hunting for recipes with fewer ingredients.
Her family’s financial situation certainly doesn’t feel like it reflects the economy she hears experts talking about, Lyda said. It’s more akin to the videos she sees on TikTok and chatter among friends about how inflation is still pinching pocketbooks.
“I look at the news and see how they’re like, ‘Oh, best earnings, there’s been great growth,'” the 29-year-old said. “And I’m like, ‘Where’s that been?'”
Economists wonder if social media discourse and discussion about a potential recession have made Americans think they should feel worse about the economy than they actually do. That would help explain why consumer spending remains strong, despite the fact that people typically tighten their belts when they foresee financial turmoil.
There’s also a feeling of whiplash from the runaway inflation that snapped a long period of low-to-normal price growth, said Harvard’s Dynan. Now, even as the annual rate of inflation has cooled to more acceptable levels, consumers remain on edge as prices continue to creep higher.
“People are still angry about the inflation we saw in 2021 and, in particular, 2022,” Dynan said. “There’s something about the salience of … the bill for lunch that you see every single day that just maybe resonates in your brain, relative to the pay increase you get once a year.”
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., December 13, 2023.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
Another potential problem: The average person may not completely understand that some inflation is considered normal. In fact, the Federal Reserve, which sets U.S. monetary policy, aims for a 2% increase in prices each year. Deflation, which is when prices decrease, is actually seen as bad for the economy.
Despite these quandaries, economists are optimistic for the new year as it appears increasingly likely that a recession has been avoided and the Fed can lower the cost of borrowing money. For everyday Americans like Connolly and Lyda, inflation and their financial standing will remain top of mind.
Lyda has cut treats like weekly Starbucks lattes out of the budget to ensure her family can afford a memorable first holiday season in their new home. In 2024, she’ll be watching to see if the Fed cuts interest rates, potentially creating an opportunity to refinance the loan on that house.
“You just have to realize that every season of life may not be this huge financial season,” Lyda said. “Sometimes you’re in a season where you’re just trying to hold on. And I feel like that’s what it’s been like for most Americans.”
A 1-year-old girl was found dead Friday morning near Los Angeles International Airport, officials said.
Personnel from the Los Angeles Fire Department responded to the area of South Sepulveda Boulevard and West Century Boulevard, near the entrance to the airport, just before 9:40 a.m. for a reported medical emergency.
Emergency personnel found the infant, who was not breathing, and tried unsuccessfully to resuscitate her.
The 1-year-old was pronounced dead at the scene, according to the Los Angeles Police Department. The incident remains under investigation, but police officials said they had found “nothing nefarious” as of Friday evening.
Police did not say whether the child was with family, caretakers or alone when she was found.
Shortly after the murder of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police in 2020, Google was among many tech companies that set up new programs aimed at supporting Black employees. The goal, CEO Sundar Pichai wrote, was “to build sustainable equity for Google’s Black+ community, and externally, to make our products and programs helpful in the moments that matter most to Black users.”
Google’s vocal commitments included improving representation of underrepresented groups in leadership by 30% by 2025; more than doubling the number of Black workers at nonsenior levels by 2025; addressing representation issues in hiring, retention and promotions; and establishing better support for the mental and physical health for Black employees.
The move was part of a broader trend in the wake of the Floyd killing, which sparked societal unrest and drew attention to the power imbalances in corporate America and the tech industry specifically. Corporations pledged to invest millions of dollars to improve diversity in their ranks and support external groups doing work on diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI.
But in 2023, some of those programs are in retreat.
By mid-2023, DEI-related job postingshad declined 44% from the same time a year prior, according to data provided by job site Indeed. In November 2023, the last full month for which data was available, it dropped 23% year over year.
That’s a sharp contrast with the period from 2020 to 2021, when those postings expanded nearly 30%.
In line with this broader trend, both Google and Meta have cut staffers and downsized programs that fell under DEI investment.
The year’s cuts have also impacted smaller, third-party organizations who counted on big tech clients for work, despite the continued growth of those tech giants.
“Whenever there is an economic downturn in tech, some of the first budgets that are cut are in DEI, but I don’t think we’ve seen such stark contrast as this year,” said Melinda Briana Epler, founder and CEO of Empovia, which advises companies and leaders to use a research-based culture of equality.
“When George Floyd began to become the topic of conversations, companies and executives doubled down on their commitments and here we are only a couple years later, and folks are looking for opportunities to cut those teams,” said Devika Brij, CEO of Brij the Gap Consulting, which works with tech companies’ DEI efforts. Brij said some of her clients had cut their DEI budgets by as much as 90% by midyear.
However, more than just broken promises are at stake, experts told CNBC in a series of interviews.
The cuts come at a time when technology companies are forging ahead on the biggest technology shift in a decade: artificial intelligence. If diverse people are not included in AI development, that may result in even greater power imbalances for both corporate workers, as well as consumers who will use their products.
“Our commitment to DEI remains at the center of who we are as a company,” a Meta spokesperson wrote in a statement to CNBC. “We continue to intentionally design equitable and fair practices to drive progress across our people, product, policy and partnerships pillars.”
“Our workforce reductions and company-wide efforts to sharpen our focus span the breadth of our business,” said a Google spokesperson, saying that the company remains committed to underrepresented communities and DEI work. “To be absolutely clear, our commitment to that work has not changed and we invested in many new programs and partnerships this year.”
The Google spokesperson did not dispute any specifics in this story, but pointed to new investments in partnerships this year, including committing more than $5 million to historically Black colleges and universities to help build a stronger pipeline to the tech industry for underrepresented talent, and launching the Google for Startups Women Founders Fund to help women entrepreneurs.
In 2021,after facing complaints about pay equity in its Engineering Residency program, Google said it would be sunsetting the program and replacing it with a new one called Early Career Immersion, or ECI, which is aimed at helping underrepresented talent develop skills. (Google said sunsetting Engineering Residency was an unrelated business decision.)
But Google decided not to hire a 2023 cohort of ECI software engineers, citing an uncertain hiring outlook, according to correspondence viewed by CNBC. It also laid off some staffers associated with the program.
Participants in a separate Google program called Apprenticeships also lodged complaints about a lack of pathways and pay inequities in the last year, CNBC found.
“Apprentices become part of our mission to build great products for every user, and their different experiences help ensure that our products are as diverse as our users,” Google’s Apprenticeships website states.
But Apprenticeships participants complained they were getting paid less than other engineers during the course of the 20-month program despite doing similar work. They said they were doing “Level 3” work with L3 expectations and contributing significantly to Google’s codebase while earning half of full-time L3 software engineers’ base salary, according to internal correspondence seen by CNBC.
The apprentices even confronted the executive sponsor of the program, Aparna Pappu, vice president of Google Workspace, pointing out the executive’s prior stated goal “to increase representation of underrepresented talent across Google.”
The company said that apprentices are paid a salary for the learning and training they receive as part of the program, and that it reviews compensation annually to ensure alignment with the market.
The Apprenticeships program, which included real-work job training for underrepresented backgrounds, followed other failed efforts to improve diversity. In 2021, for instance, Google said it shut down a long-running program aimed at entry-level engineers from underrepresented backgrounds after participants said it enforced “systemic pay inequities.” That same year, CNBC found the company’s separate program that worked with students from historically Black colleges, suffered extreme disorganization, racism and broken promises to students.
Google and Meta also made cuts to personnel who were in charge of recruiting underrepresented people, according to several sources and documentation.
Nearly every member of Meta’s Sourcer Development Program, more than 60 workers, was let go from the company as part of its layoff of over 11,000 workers, CNBC learned. They claimed to have received inferior severance packages compared with other workers who were laid off in the same time period. Meta’s Sourcer Development Program was intended to help workers from diverse backgrounds obtain careers in corporate technology recruiting.
Google also cut DEI leaders who worked with Chief Diversity Officer Melonie Parker, while Meta made cuts to several DEI managers — some of whom it hired in 2020.
Layoffs at Google and Meta also included employees who held leadership roles in their respective Black employee resource groups, known as ERGs.
“There’s a lowering of physiological safety with layoffs or impending layoffs, and holding ERGs accountable for that is not fair and can lead to even more burnout,” Epler said.
In addition to cutting staff who worked on DEI programs and ERGs, both Meta and Google cut planned learning and development training for underrepresented talent, according to multiple sources who asked not to be named due to fear of retaliation. Meta said that learning and development programs were “merely streamlined to make them more impactful.”
“There’s a consistent amount of folks who have completely failed, mostly because they don’t have the internal teams to keep the mission forward,” said Simone White, who is a senior vice president at Blavity, a media organization that focuses on content for the Black community, and puts on AfroTech, which became a popular tech conference for Black tech talent and companies seeking to hire them.
While internal DEI programs have suffered, the cuts were arguably even harder for external organizations who expected the same amount of corporate sponsorship and support from tech companies in 2023 as they had the prior few years.
In early 2023, big tech leaders, including Google and Meta were among companies that lessened their work with third parties that were counting on projects, according to several organizations and sources who spoke with CNBC.
Brij, CEO of Brijthe Gap Consulting, explained how the steep cuts have affected her firm, which consults with companies on building an effective workforce for underrepresented workers and includes workshops and programs.
“Right now with these budgets being entirely limited or cut, we’re just really backpedaling on so much of the work that we’ve done.”
Brij said some companies have even asked her to provide work for free.
“A lot of companies we worked with started to make progress before the cuts,” Epler said. “Now, it’s like some of them are essentially wiping away that work.”
Stefania Pomponi, founder of Hella Social Impact, said executives have blamed cost-cutting as they’ve canceled contracts with the firm, which consults with companies’ leadership to create more inclusive workplaces through programs and training.
“I’ve been telling them, ‘look, your bottom line is also your people and these types of cuts are going to impact your business'” Pomponi said, pointing to various studies on diverse teams producing higher performance outcomes.
“As I talk to my colleagues across the space, some of the monies that were set aside around the time of George Floyd’s murder have not been fully extended, and that says to me that organizations like ours are needed now more than ever,” said Brenda Wilkerson, CEO of AnitaB.org, which puts on Grace Hopper, the largest women’s tech conference, which took place in September.
Some large tech companies, including Meta, pulled back from sponsorship or attendance for employees to attend Grace Hopper 2023, according to sources who asked to remain anonymous because they are not authorized to speak to the media. Some companies, including Microsoft, ended up sending some leaders to attend virtually so they wouldn’t have to pay for travel, according to two sources who wished to remain anonymous.
Microsoft said it still sent some employees physically, and both Microsoft and Meta told CNBC that Grace Hopper’s virtual option allowed more employees to participate.
Other companies such as Google, which still had a presence at the conference, retracted travel for some employees who had previously been approved to attend, according to several sources who asked to remain anonymous. Google is also among companies to reduce their spending with Blavity, the organization that puts on AfroTech, according to sources who asked not to be named due to being unauthorized to speak.
“We do have a significant amount of our existing corporate partners that are telling us ‘Hey, we can’t participate this year because our DEI team doesn’t even exist anymore,'” said Blavity’s Simone White, who declined to name specific companies. “Week to week, we have new contacts at companies, and folks we worked with for years to organize this work are no longer there.”
“To say our progress is not in peril would not be truthful,” AnitaB.org’s Wilkerson said, although she’s optimistic the tide could turn around in 2024. “We’re working with multiple challenges in our society, so we have made a lot of the progress but some of that was erased in the last year. Then you have this backlash against racial reckoning.”
The backlash she referred to includes things like the Supreme Court’s June decision to end affirmative action at colleges, as well as backlash against DEI programs in conservative circles. “You have this ‘wokeism’ drama.” Wilkerson said, pointing to Florida legislation such as banning books and downplaying Black history, as well as laws impacting the LGBTQIA+ community.
Because of that backlash, 2023 will be the last year the organization will hold Grace Hopper in Florida, Wilkerson said. It will be held in Philadelphia next year.
A Meta spokesperson said that it increased its engagement with some third-party organizations such as The Executive Leadership Council, which aims to increase Black leadership in C-suites.
Wilkerson was among experts who told CNBC that DEI work is more important than ever given the growing work on artificial intelligence, which hit breakneck speed in 2023.
“We’re in a big technology inflection point, and what happens is as AI begins to take off and if organizations are less inclusive, the product is not reflective of the users,” Wilkerson said.
Apple, Google and other tech giants are still grappling with displaying and identifying images accurately. A New York Times investigation this year found Apple and Google’s Android software, which underpins most of the world’s smartphones, turned off the ability to visually search for primates for fear of labeling a person as an animal.
“We know that AI is trained on historic data and that historic data is missing critical segments of the population, and having women and noncentered folks as decision-makers is going to be critical to making sure it doesn’t happen again,” Wilkerson said.
White said companies who made cuts this year may have a difficult time building future relationships with DEI stakeholders, and it may impact their ability to attract and retain talent, should they decide to build up again in the future.
“Younger generations increasingly care who has a seat at the table,” White said. “And they’re going to remember who did what they said they were going to do.”
Shares of Nike Inc. tumbled after hours Thursday after the athletic-gear giant warned of a “softer second-half revenue outlook” on its quarterly earnings call, and said it is targeting up to $2 billion in cost cuts over the next three years as it looks to shed management and focus on women customers and its Jordan brand.
Nike NKE, +0.91%
said that the savings could come from simplifying its product selection and using more automation and technology. But the athletic-gear giant has also reportedly begun to lay workers off, and said it expected to book pre-tax restructuring charges of around $400 million to $450 million, much of it in the company’s fiscal third quarter, “primarily associated with employee-severance costs.”
Nike did not immediately respond to questions about job cuts at the company, or how many staff have been or could be laid off. But on the company’s earnings call, management said its plans included “reducing management layers.”
In Nike’s earnings release, Chief Financial Officer Matthew Friend said the company’s fiscal second quarter — in which per-share profit beat expectations while sales were roughly in line — marked “a turning point in driving more-profitable growth.”
But investors appeared skeptical after hours on Thursday, as shares slid more than 11%.
Nike announced the cost-cutting drive as clothing and shoe brands try to steer through weaker demand overall and a broader price-cutting battle in retail stores for inflation-battered customers. Those customers have had to set aside more money to cover the costs of ever-pricier essential goods, at the expense of things like sportswear and sneakers.
“We are seeing indications of more cautious consumer behavior around the world in an uneven macro environment,” Friend said during the call.
Nike executives said consumer demand was strong through the back-to-school season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but lagged in between. Demand wobbled online, and in China and Europe.
They also said that the money they planned to save would be reinvested into helping Nike become more nimble and more responsive to consumer preferences, after years of shifting away from selling shoes and gear through traditional retail chains in favor of doing business through its own stores and e-commerce channels. They added that those efforts “added complexity and inefficiencies” as competition grew steeper.
Chief Executive John Donahoe said on the call that the Nike-brand women’s segment was already a $9 billion business. But he said new products — like bras, leggings, retro-themed running shoes and other offerings that span both sports and lifestyle — would help draw more women customers.
Within the Jordan category, Donahoe cited opportunities beyond basketball sneakers. Clothing and golf-, soccer- and football-related products, along with offerings targeted toward women and children, would also help drive growth, he said.
But for the rest of its fiscal year, Nike’s expectations were dimmer. The company said it forecasted “slightly negative” sales growth for its fiscal third quarter. For its fourth quarter, executives expect low-single-digits sales gains. And they said they now anticipate Nike’s full-year sales to increase around 1%, compared to an outlook in September for mid-single-digits gains.
In its fiscal second quarter, which ended on Nov. 30, Nike reported net income in the period of $1.58 billion, or $1.03 a share, compared with $1.33 billion, or 85 cents a share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue rose 1% year over year, to $13.4 billion.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected adjusted earnings per share of 84 cents, on sales of $13.39 billion.
Gross margin rose to 44.6%, helped by price increases and lower costs for ocean-freight shipping.
Outlooks this year from athletic-gear retailers like Foot Locker Inc. FL, +1.89%
and Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. DKS, +0.78%
have also been cautious, and Nike has faced competition from the likes of Adidas ADDYY, +1.01%
and On Running ONON, -1.05%.
Nike management also said in their previous earnings call in September that they aimed to do more to attract women and running-shoe customers. However, they noted that demand for the company’s products remained solid and they were “cautiously planning for modest markdown improvements for the balance of the year,” as the company tightens up its supplies of sneakers and clothing in stock.
On Thursday’s call, executives said that demand for higher-priced products had been “resilient,” and that they didn’t have to cut prices as much as their rivals. And they said new releases — like the Sabrina 1 and Luka 2 sneakers — were the best way to stand out in a sea of discounts.
“We know in an environment like this, when the consumer is under pressure and the promotional activity is higher, that it’s newness and innovation which causes the consumer to act,” Friend said.
WASHINGTON — Democratic lawmakers on Thursday praised workers at a New Mexico branch of Wells Fargo for becoming the first branch of the nation’s fourth-largest bank to unionize.
“Your success brings the fight for the Dignity of Work directly to Wall Street’s front door,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.
“I look forward to watching your movement grow from branch to branch across the country,” Brown said in his statement.
Workers at the bank’s Albuquerque branch voted 5 to 3 on Wednesday to unionize under the Communications Workers of America’s Wells Fargo Workers United.
The vote made Wells Fargo the first major U.S. lender with a unionized workforce.
“This is the first union at a big bank in the country! #UnionStrong,” Rep. Melanie Stansbury, a New Mexico Democrat, wrote in a post on the social media site X, formerly known as Twitter.
The organizing move follows successful negotiations by the United Auto Workers, SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild of America after weeks of strikes earlier this year.
But workers at an Alaska Wells Fargo branch last week withdrew a petition to form a union.
Wells Fargo was among the banks eyed in an industry-wide investigation into discriminatory mortgage lending in 2022.
A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 13, 2023.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Asia markets fall U.S. markets mostly rose Friday amid a tumultuous day of trading, giving major indexes their seventh consecutive week of gains. However, Asia-Pacific markets slumped Monday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index falling around 1%. It was dragged down by shares of SenseTime, which plunged as much as 18.25% to its all-time low on news the company’s founder had passed away.
Lowered risk appetite For the first half of the year, family offices in Asia had bet big on risky assets, said Hannes Hofmann of Citi Private Bank. That’s because Asian family offices were anticipating a rebound in China’s economy. But as the country’s economy slows down and Asian stock markets lag behind that of the U.S., that appetite for risk’s dwindling, according a Citi Private Bank global survey.
AI job losses There are signs humans are losing jobs to artificial intelligence. According to a recent report from ResumeBuilder, 37% of respondents say AI has replaced workers this year, while 44% report AI will result in layoffs in 2024. But experts say this trend isn’t a wholesale replacement of humans — but a redefinition of the sort of jobs we can do.
[PRO] ‘Poised to pounce’ Jefferies is “poised to pounce” on several global stocks next year, the investment bank’s analysts wrote. Three stocks, which include companies with strong cash flows and attractive risk-reward ratios, made it to Jefferies’ top choices for 2024. And all of them have at least a 60% potential upside.
The “everything rally” spurred by Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting appears to have lost its legs — not least because the Fed itself seemed slightly spooked by how aggressively markets are pricing in rate cuts for next year.
According to the dot plot, which is a projection of where Fed officials expect interest rates to be in the future, there could be three 25-basis-point cuts next year. But markets think there’s more than a 38% chance rates will plummet to a range of 3.75% to 4% — that’s six 25-basis-point cuts — by December next year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
On Friday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams tried to rein in some of that exuberance.
“I just think it’s just premature to be even thinking about that,” Williams said, when asked about futures pricing for a rate cut in March.
Williams even warned rates might go up.
“One thing we’ve learned even over the past year is that the data can move and in surprising ways, we need to be ready to move to tighten the policy further, if the progress of inflation were to stall or reverse.”
That said, Friday also saw a quarterly event known as “triple witching,” the confluence of expiring stock index futures and options, as well as individual stock options. Furthermore, the S&P and Nasdaq-100 rebalanced their indexes, meaning the weight of some stocks on the index was changed. That could have exaggerated price moves and increased volatility as investors, accordingly, rebalanced their portfolios.
Finally, perhaps investors shouldn’t be surprised or disappointed the rally’s subsiding. “The market doesn’t go up every day, no matter how strong a trend is,” Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade points out. “Pullbacks and pauses are inevitable, regardless of how big they are or how long they last.”
The corollary to that is even a decline won’t last. Barring any shocks, signs are pointing to Santa spreading cheer in markets as the year wraps up.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on December 14, 2023, in New York City.
Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Triple witching U.S. markets mostly rose Friday amid a tumultuous day of trading, which could have been triggered by an event known as “triple witching” — the simultaneous expiration of stock options, and stock index futures and options. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index ended the day flat, giving away earlier gains of around 0.5%. But it rose 0.91% last week, its fifth week of wins.
Cooling the heat Following the euphoria markets experienced after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last meeting, during which it indicated three rate cuts for 2024, Fed officials seem to be dampening the enthusiasm. “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now,” New York Federal Reserve President John Williams told CNBC. “We need to be ready to move to tighten the policy further, if the progress of inflation were to stall.”
Citi works remotely Citigroup employees were told they can work remotely in the final two weeks of December, CNBC has learned, making last week the final in-person experience of this year for many staffers. But this perk comes at a tense moment. Some employees expressed concern over whether their job will still exist next year as CEO Jane Fraser finalizes her sweeping corporate reorganization — one that’s already resulted in layoffs.
AI job losses There are signs humans are losing jobs to artificial intelligence. According to a recent report from ResumeBuilder, 37% of respondents say AI has replaced workers this year, while 44% report AI will result in layoffs in 2024. But experts say this trend isn’t a wholesale replacement of humans — but a redefinition of the sort of jobs we can do.
[PRO] Focus on PCE In comparison to last week, this week’s relatively light on economic data and market-moving events. But investors should keep an eye on the personal consumption expenditure index, out Friday. Economists expect the PCE to show inflation’s receding. But if it surprises to the upside, it’ll throw a wrench into the Fed’s plan to pivot — and possibly halt the ferocious market rally.
The “everything rally” spurred by Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting appears to have lost its legs — not least because the Fed itself seemed slightly spooked by how aggressively markets are pricing in rate cuts for next year.
According to the dot plot, which is a projection of where Fed officials expect interest rates to be in the future, there could be three 25-basis-point cuts next year. But markets think there’s a 34.7% chance rates will plummet to a range of 3.75% to 4% — that’s six 25-basis-point cuts — by December next year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
On Friday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams tried to rein in some of that exuberance.
“I just think it’s just premature to be even thinking about that,” Williams said, when asked about futures pricing for a rate cut in March.
Williams even warned rates might go up.
“One thing we’ve learned even over the past year is that the data can move and in surprising ways, we need to be ready to move to tighten the policy further, if the progress of inflation were to stall or reverse.”
That said, Friday also saw a quarterly event known as “triple witching,” the confluence of expiring stock index futures and options, as well as individual stock options. Furthermore, the S&P and Nasdaq-100 rebalanced their indexes, meaning the weight of some stocks on the index was changed. That could have exaggerated price moves and increased volatility as investors, accordingly, rebalanced their portfolios.
Finally, perhaps investors shouldn’t be surprised or disappointed the rally’s subsiding. “The market doesn’t go up every day, no matter how strong a trend is,” Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade points out. “Pullbacks and pauses are inevitable, regardless of how big they are or how long they last.”
The corollary to that is even a decline won’t last. Barring any shocks, signs are pointing to Santa spreading cheer in markets as the year wraps up.
Videogame maker Activision Blizzard has agreed to pay nearly $55 million to settle a California civil-rights lawsuit brought over complaints of sexual harassment, discrimination and pay disparities by women employees that helped trigger the company’s acquisition by Microsoft.
The agreement, subject to court approval, will see Activision pay nearly $46 million into a settlement fund dedicated to compensating women employees and contract workers at the company, plus more than $9 million in attorneys’ fees and costs. Additionally, Activision will take steps “to help ensure fair pay and promotion practices at the company,” including retaining an independent consultant to evaluate its compensation and promotion policies.
Yet the settlement also sees CRD withdraw its initial claims alleging a culture of widespread, systemic workplace sexual harassment at Activision, according to a copy of the agreement provided to MarketWatch. The document notes that the department is filing an amended complaint that removes the sexual-harassment allegations against the company and focuses on the gender-based pay and promotion claims.
CRD made no note of its prior sexual-harassment claims against Activision in its announcement Friday. A spokesperson for the department said the statement “largely speaks for itself with respect to the historic nature of this more than $50 million settlement agreement, which will bring direct relief and compensation to women who were harmed by the company’s discriminatory practices.
Representatives for Activision declined to comment.
The Wall Street Journal first reported the news of the settlement Friday.
The California agency’s complaint was one of several high-profile investigations by both state and federal regulators in recent years into alleged workplace misconduct at Activision and failures by its leadership to respond appropriately.
The settlement would be the second-largest ever for the California Civil Rights Department, according to the Journal, after its $100 million agreement with another Los Angeles-area videogame developer, Riot Games, to resolve gender-discrimination allegations in 2021. The agency had initially sought a much-larger settlement with Activision, the publication reported, citing how the state had estimated the company’s liability at nearly $1 billion to some 2,500 employees with potential claims.
The U.S. economy continues to grow despite the 5.5% benchmark federal funds interest rate set by the Federal Reserve in 2023.
The Fed’s leaders expect their interest rate decisions to eventually slow that growth.
The increase in borrowing costs that stems from Fed decisions does not affect all consumers immediately. It typically affects people who need to take new loans — first-time homebuyers, for example. Other dynamics, such as the use of contracts in business, can slow the ripple of Fed decisions through an economy.
“It might not all hit at once, but the longer rates stay elevated, the more you’re going to feel those effects,” said Sarah House, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo.
“Consumers did have additional savings that we wouldn’t have expected if they had continued to save at the same pre-Covid rate. And so that’s giving some more insulation in terms of their need to borrow,” said House. “That’s an example of why this cycle might be different in terms of when those lags hit, versus compared to prior cycles.”
A 1% interest rate increase can reduce gross domestic product by 5% for 12 years after an unexpected hike, according to a research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
“It’s bad in the short term because we worry about unemployment, we worry about recessions,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, referring to the paper’s implications for central bank policymakers. “It’s bad in the long term because that’s where increases in your wages come from; we want to be more productive.”
Some economists say that financial markets may be responding to Federal Reserve policy more quickly, if not instantaneously. “Policy tightening occurs with the announcement of policy tightening, not when the rate change actually happens,” said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller in remarks July 13 at an event in New York.
“We’ve seen this cycle where the stock market moved more quickly in some cases, more slowly in other cases,” said Roger Ferguson, former vice chair of the Federal Reserve. “So, you know, this question of variability comes into play, as in how long it’s going to take. We think it’s a long time, but sometimes it can be faster.”
Watch the video above to see why the Fed’s interest rate hikes take time to affect the economy.
Nokia cut its operating margin guidance, with market conditions in its mobile networks business remaining challenging due to falling operator spending and the Indian market normalizing after a period of rapid 5G roll-outs.
The Finnish telecom equipment maker said Tuesday that it now targets a comparable operating margin target of at least 13% by 2026, from at least 14% previously.
November’s sharp pullback in 30-year fixed mortgage rates may not last if the labor market remains strong, said Mark Palim, deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae.
Palim was speaking to the robust jobs report released on Friday, showing the U.S. added 199,000 jobs in November and that wages rose, albeit with the figures somewhat inflated by the return of striking workers from the auto industry and from Hollywood.
Homebuyers can benefit from a robust labor market and the near 80 basis point decline in mortgage rates since the end of October, Palim said. But if the “labor markets remain this strong, we believe the pace of mortgage rate declines will likely not continue in the near term or may partially reverse,” he said in a statement.
The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate was edging down to 7.05% on Friday, after surging to nearly 8% in October, according to Mortgage Daily News.
Optimism around the potential for falling mortgage costs to thaw home sales helped lift shares of Toll Brothers Inc., TOL, +1.86%
and a slew of other homebuilders tracked by the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, XH,
to record highs earlier this week, even while investors in some homebuilder bonds have been sellers in recent weeks.
Yields on 10-year BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
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were up sharply Friday, to about 4.23% and 4.32%, respectively, but still below the highs of about 5% in October. The surge in long-term borrowing costs was stoked by tough talk by Federal Reserve officials about the need to keep rates higher for longer to bring inflation down to a 2% annual target.
U.S. stocks were up Friday afternoon, shaking off earlier weakness following the jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA
was 0.2% higher, further narrowing the gap between its last record close set two years ago, the S&P 500 index SPX
and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP
also were up 0.2%, according to FactSet data.
Spotify Technology SA on Monday said it plans to reduce head count by 17%, which would mark the third time the audio streaming group has announced layoffs cuts this year.
The Wall Street Journal said the cuts would equate to about 1,500 jobs.
The move was announced by Chief Executive Officer Daniel Elk in a letter to employees that was posted on the company’s website.
“Economic growth has slowed dramatically and capital has become more expensive. Spotify is not an exception to these realities,” he said, adding that the “painful” cuts were needed to align the company with “future goals and ensure we are right-sized for the challenges ahead.”
Elk said that he realized the new reductions seem “surprisingly large, given the recent positive earnings report and the company’s performance” — shares have soared 128% in 2023.
Analysts have credited Spotify’s share performance this year to strong growth and improved profitability, but Citi downgraded the stock last week, saying risk-reward is no longer attractive.
“We debated making smaller reductions throughout 2024 and 2025. Yet, considering the gap between our financial goal state and our current operational costs, I decided that a substantial action to rightsize our costs was the best option to accomplish our objectives,” he said.
Elk explained that in 2020 and 2021, Spotify took advantage of lower costs of capital and “invested significantly,” for example in expanding the company’s team and enhancing conent.
“These investments generally worked, contributing to Spotify’s increased output and the platform’s robust growth this past year. However, we now find ourselves in a very different environment. And despite our efforts to reduce costs this past year, our cost structure for where we need to be is still too big,” he said.
