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  • Sen. Alex Padilla says he won’t run for California governor

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    WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla announced Tuesday that he will not run for California governor next year, ending months of speculation about the possibility of the Democrat vying to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom.

    “It is with a full heart and even more commitment than ever that I am choosing to not run for governor of California next year,” Padilla told reporters outside his Senate office in Washington.

    Padilla instead said he will focus on countering President Trump’s agenda in Congress, where Democrats are currently in the minority in both the House and Senate, but hope to regain some political clout after the 2026 midterm elections.

    “I choose not just to stay in the Senate. I choose to stay in this fight because the Constitution is worth fighting for. Our fundamental rights are worth fighting for. Our core values are worth fighting for. The American dream is worth fighting for,” he said.

    Padilla said his decision was influenced by his belief that under President Trump, “these are not normal times.”

    “We deserve better than this,” he said.

    Many contenders, no clear favorite

    Padilla’s decision to bow out of the 2026 governor’s race will leave a prominent name out of an already crowded contest with many contenders but not a clear favorite.

    For much of the year, the field was essentially frozen in place as former Vice President Kamala Harris pondered whether she would run, with many donors and major endorsers staying out of the game. Harris said at the end of July that she wouldn’t run. But another potential candidate — billionaire developer Rick Caruso — remains a question mark.

    Caruso said Monday night that he was still considering running for either governor or Los Angeles mayor, and will decide in the next few weeks.

    “It’s a really tough decision,” Caruso said. “Within a few weeks or so, or something like that, I’ll probably have a decision made. It’s a big topic of discussion in the house with my kids and my wife.”

    Major Democratic candidates include former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, current California Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee and wealthy businessman Stephen Cloobeck. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton are the most prominent Republicans running.

    Amid fire recovery aftermath, immigration raids and a high-octane redistricting battle, California voters have yet to turn their attention to next year’s gubernatorial matchup, despite the vast power that Newsom’s successor will wield. California is now the world’s fourth-largest economy, and policy decisions in the Golden State often have global repercussions. Newsom is nearing the end of his second and final term.

    Recent polling shows the contest as wide open, with nearly 4 in 10 voters surveyed saying they are undecided, though Porter had a slight edge as the top choice in the poll. She and Bianco were the only candidates whose support cracked the double digits.

    Candidates still have months to file their paperwork before the June 2 primary to replace Newsom.

    June incident brought attention

    Known for soft-spoken confidence and a lack of bombast, Padilla’s public profile soared in June after he found himself cuffed by federal agents, at the center of a staggering viral moment during a news conference by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

    Despite identifying himself, Padilla was tackled after trying to interrupt Noem with a question. The manhandling of California’s senior senator was filmed by a staffer and broadcast around the world, provoking searing and widespread condemnation.

    Days later, Vice President JD Vance joked about the incident and referred to Padilla — his former Senate colleague — as “Jose Padilla,” a misnaming that Padilla suggested was intentional and others characterized as racist.

    The event put Padilla on the national spotlight and rumors of Padilla’s interest in the gubernatorial race ignited in late August.

    Padilla told reporters Tuesday that he received an “outpouring of encouragement and offers of support for the idea” of his candidacy and that he had “taken it to heart”

    Alongside his wife, Angela, the senator said he also heard from many people urging him to keep his fight going in Washington.

    “Countless Californians have urged me to do everything I could to protect California and the American Dream from a vindictive president who seems hell-bent on raising costs for working families, rolling back environmental protections, cutting access to healthcare, jeopardizing reproductive rights and more,” he said.

    Padilla said he had listened.

    “I will continue to thank them and honor their support by continuing to work together for a better future,” he said.

    Ceballos reported from Washington and Wick from Los Angeles. Times staff writer Noah Goldberg in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

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    Ana Ceballos, Julia Wick

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  • Commentary: They cuffed and tackled Sen. Alex Padilla. But he sees a bigger crisis ahead

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    California Sen. Alex Padilla is among the highest-ranking Latinos in U.S. politics today, but it took a pair of handcuffs to make him famous.

    How’s that for a comment on America 2025?

    Padilla, you may remember, was tackled and cuffed by federal officers after attempting to ask a question of Homeland Security Czarina Kristi Noem at an L.A. news conference in June, when the National Guard first made its appearance on our streets. Noem later claimed Padilla “lunged” at her — which he did not — using the classic Trumpian technique of erasing reality with blame, especially when it comes to brown people.

    Padilla told me that “from day one of this administration, I have tried to speak truth to power,” and if getting tackled forced people to “have no choice but to now start paying attention … that could be helpful, because the general public knows it’s wrong.”

    U.S. Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi recycled the incident on Tuesday when Padilla attempted to question her during a congressional hearing, voicing concern about the weaponization of the Department of Justice. Bondi refused to answer multiple questions, instead invoking the Noem defense.

    “I find it interesting that you want order … in this proceeding now,” Bondi said. “You sure didn’t have order when you stormed Secretary Noem at a press conference in California, did you?”

    Again, no storming, no lunging, not even a feint. Really, if anything can be said of Padilla, it’s that he’s a guy who likes order. An MIT-trained engineer, he’s known for being calm to the point of boring — in the best of ways. Who wouldn’t want a bit of boring in their politics today, if it’s seasoned with compassion and common sense?

    Calm, of course, does not mean a lack of conviction. As the government shutdown limps to the end of its first full week, Padilla took a few minutes to fill me in on why Democrats shouldn’t back down, and why he won’t — whether the issue is healthcare, immigration or the collision of the two, which is at the heart of this shutdown.

    Republicans would like voters to believe that undocumented immigrants are throwing parties in our emergency rooms, racking up free services while shoving U.S. citizens out to the sidewalk. In reality, there’s not a lot of good data on how many ER visits involve undocumented folks because doctors are more focused on saving lives than checking immigration status. But one Texas study found that about 2% of all hospital visits in a three-month period involved people without documentation. That’s in a state with a high number of undocumented folks, so take it for what it’s worth — hardly a scourge.

    Padilla and Democrats would like to stay focused on an actual crisis — healthcare premiums for low- and middle-income folks are about to skyrocket in coming weeks if Congress doesn’t keep the Obama-era subsidies that make the premiums affordable. Padilla wants voters to understand how dire this is.

    “This is not a what-might-happen-next-year concern … this is a now concern,” Padilla told me.

    “Open enrollment is opening,” he said. “People are setting their premiums and have to make choices of where to sign up for healthcare and at the cost right now, and so it does need to be immediately addressed.”

    In case you think this is partisan show, far-right MAGA cheerleader Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) agrees with Padilla. That’s when you know things are getting weird.

    “Not a single Republican in leadership talked to us about this or has given us a plan to help Americans deal with their health insurance premiums DOUBLING!!!” Greene wrote on social media, breaking with her party on the issue.

    That’s about the only thing that Padilla and Greene may ever agree on. Padilla is the son of immigrants who met in L.A. and later obtained legal status. He was born in Southern California, making birthright citizenship core to his identity at a moment when Trump is asking the Supreme Court to end it. His isn’t just an immigrant story, it’s a California story, and it’s never far from his mind.

    He was recently asked if he regretted fighting with the Biden administration over proposed immigration reform that lacked pathways for immigrants, especially Dreamers and others who have been in the United States for years if not decades, to become citizens. Would it have been better to sell them out, leave them in limbo, but fix the border before Trump could exploit it?

    “Of course not,” Padilla told me. Rather than shrink under attack, Padilla said he’s holding his ground.

    California is one of a handful of states that does in fact offer healthcare to undocumented people, though budget shortfalls forced Gov. Gavin Newsom to scale back that plan.

    No federal dollars are used for that undocumented healthcare — it’s solely state money. And Padilla supports it.

    “There are some states that choose to use state funding to provide that care, and I agree with that, because it’s much smarter, from a public health standpoint, to help prevent people from getting sick or treat people early on, not administer healthcare, certainly not primary care, through emergency rooms,” he said.

    Padilla said it’s rich that the very workers deemed essential during the coronavirus pandemic, the workers who kept food on tables, deliveries going, and cared for our young and our elderly, are now “the primary target of Trump’s massive deportation agenda. So whether it’s in the vein of the healthcare question, whether it’s in the vein of the indiscriminate raids by ICE and other federal agencies, that’s the cruel irony.”

    The Trump administration raised Padilla’s profile inadvertently, but the newfound fame has had a somewhat unexpected consequence: Frequent speculation that he may run for governor when Newsom terms out in 2026.

    Padilla said he hasn’t “made a decision on that and not making any announcements right now.”

    Instead, he’s focusing on helping to pass California’s Proposition 50, which would rig election maps to potentially create five more Democratic seats in the midterm elections, with the hopes of taking control of at least one house of Congress, an effort he says is “critical to reining in this out-of-control administration.”

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    Anita Chabria

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  • Padilla, Schiff request detailed breakdown of National Guard, Marine deployments in L.A.

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    U.S. Sens. Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff have sent a letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth requesting a detailed breakdown of military deployments to Los Angeles amid recent immigration enforcement protests in the city.

    The two California Democrats wrote Monday that they wanted to know how thousands of National Guard troops and U.S. Marines were specifically used, whether and how they engaged in any law enforcement activity and how much the deployments have cost taxpayers to date.

    The deployments were made over the objections of Gov. Gavin Newsom, L.A. Mayor Karen Bass and other local officials, and sparked a lawsuit by the state alleging they were illegal. The letter came just hours before a federal judge agreed with the state in a ruling Tuesday that Padilla and Schiff both cheered.

    Padilla and Schiff wrote that the deployments were unnecessary and that greater detail was needed in light of similar operations now being launched or threatened in other American cities.

    “The use of the U.S. military to assist in or otherwise support immigration operations remains inappropriate, potentially a violation of the law, and harmful to the relationship between the U.S. public and the U.S. military,” they wrote.

    The Department of Defense declined to comment on the letter to The Times, saying it would “respond directly” to Padilla and Schiff.

    President Trump ordered the federalization of some 4,100 National Guard troops in California in June, as L.A. protests erupted over his administration’s immigration policies. Some 700 Marines were also deployed to the city. Most of those forces have since departed, but Padilla and Schiff said 300 Guard troops remain activated.

    Trump, Hegseth and other administration leaders have previously defended the deployments as necessary to restore law and order in L.A., defend federal buildings and protect federal immigration agents as they conduct immigration raids in local communities opposed to such enforcement efforts.

    Under questioning from members of Congress at the start of the deployments in June, Hegseth and other Defense officials estimated that the mission would last 60 days and that basic necessities such as travel, housing and food for the troops would cost about $134 million. However, the administration has not provided updated details as the operation has continued.

    Padilla and Schiff asked for specific totals on the number of California Guard troops and Marines deployed to L.A., and details as to which units they were drawn from and whether any out-of-state Guard personnel were brought in. They also asked whether any other military personnel were deployed to L.A., and how many civilian employees from the Department of Defense were assigned to the L.A. operation.

    The senators asked for a description of the “specific missions” carried out by the different units deployed to the city, and for a breakdown of military personnel who directly supported Department of Homeland Security teams, which would include Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. They also asked which units were assigned to provide security at federal sites or were “placed on stand-by status outside of the immediate protest or immigration enforcement areas.”

    They asked for “the number of times and relevant detail for any cases in which [Defense] personnel made arrests, detained any individuals, otherwise exercised law enforcement authorities, or exercised use of lethal force during the operation.”

    They also asked for the total cost of all of the work to the Department of Defense and for a breakdown of costs by operation, maintenance, personnel or other accounts, and asked whether any funding used in the operation was diverted from other programs.

    Padilla and Schiff requested that the Department of Defense provide the information by Sept. 12.

    Unless it is “expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress,” the use of military personnel for civilian law enforcement on U.S. soil is barred by law under the Posse Comitatus Act. The 1878 law applies to U.S. Marines and to Guard troops who, like those in L.A., have been federalized.

    In its lawsuit, California argued the deployments were a violation of the Posse Comitatus Act. In response, the Trump administration argued that the president has the legal authority to deploy federal troops to protect federal property and personnel, such as ICE agents.

    On Tuesday, a federal judge ruled for the state, finding that the deployments did violate the Posse Comitatus Act. The judge placed his injunction on hold for 10 days, and the Trump administration is expected to appeal.

    Schiff said Trump’s “goal was not to ensure safety, but to create a spectacle,” and that the ruling affirmed those actions were “unlawful and unjustified.”

    Padilla said the ruling “confirmed what we knew all along: Trump broke the law in his effort to turn service members into his own national police force.”

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    Kevin Rector

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  • Padilla sidesteps questions about a possible run for governor, says he is focused on redistricting

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    SACRAMENTO — U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) on Wednesday brushed aside questions about whether he might jump into California’s 2026 governor’s race but declined to rule out the idea.

    Padilla instead said he was wholly focused on promoting the special election in November when voters will be asked to redraw California’s congressional districts to counter efforts by President Trump and other GOP leaders to keep Republicans in control of Congress.

    “I’m focused and I’d encourage everybody to focus on this Nov. 4 special election,” Padilla said during an interview at a political summit in Sacramento sponsored by Politico.

    The 52-year-old added that the effort to redraw congressional districts, championed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in response to similar efforts in GOP-led states, is not solely about the arcane process known as redistricting.

    “My Republican colleagues and especially the White House know how unpopular and damaging what they’re doing is, from gutting Medicare, nutrition assistance programs, really all these other areas of budget cuts to underwrite tax breaks for billionaires,” Padilla said. “So their only hope of staying in power beyond next November is to rig the system.”

    In recent days, Padilla’s name has emerged as a possible candidate to replace Newsom, who cannot run for another term. The field is unsettled, with independent polling conducted after former Vice President Kamala Harris opted not to run for governor showing large numbers of voters are undecided and with no clear front-runner.

    Padilla pointed to his more than quarter-century history of serving Californians at every level of government when asked what might be appealing about the job.

    “I love California, right?” he said. “And I’ve had the privilege and the honor of serving in so many different capacities.”

    In 1999, the then-26-year-old was elected to the Los Angeles City Council. At the time, the MIT grad still lived with his parents — a Mexican-born housekeeper and a short-order cook — in Pacoima.

    Padilla continued his steady climb through the state’s political ranks in the decades that followed, serving in the state Senate and as California secretary of state. Newsom appointed him to fill Harris’ Senate seat in 2020, making him the first Latino to represent California in the Senate, and Padilla was elected to fill a full term in 2022. His current Senate term doesn’t end until 2029, meaning he wouldn’t have to risk his seat to run for governor.

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    Seema Mehta, Julia Wick

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  • City Council OKs $3.8 million to clean up and secure graffitied downtown L.A. skyscraper

    City Council OKs $3.8 million to clean up and secure graffitied downtown L.A. skyscraper

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    The Los Angeles City Council voted Friday to allot nearly $4 million to remove graffiti and secure an unfinished downtown Los Angeles skyscraper, which has been heavily tagged in recent weeks.

    Councilmember Kevin de León introduced a motion this week to allocate the funds to secure the property and restore the public right of way, which is obstructed by plastic barriers, scaffolding and debris.

    “I’m not holding my breath waiting for the developer to clean up their property,” De León said Wednesday. “The purpose of my motion is clear: to prepare our city to take decisive action if the Oceanwide Plaza developer ignores their responsibility and to put them on the hook for costs incurred by the city.”

    The motion will move $1.1 million into a fund to fence and secure the ground floors of the building and place an additional $2.7 million into a fund for security services, fire safety upgrades and graffiti abatement.

    The motion also calls on the city attorney and city administrative officer to report back to the council within 30 days with a legal strategy to recoup all of the city’s related expenses from the property owners.

    The Oceanwide Plaza project, located across Figueroa street from Crypto.com Arena, has become a site for graffiti tagging and even paragliding in recent weeks and posed a headache for city officials and authorities alike. Ahead of the Grammy Awards held at Crypto.com Arena, dozens of floors of the skyscraper were tagged with colorful spray paint.

    More than two dozen floors of the skyscraper were tagged with graffiti ahead of the Grammy Awards that were held at Crypto.com Arena held across Figueroa Street.

    (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times)

    The owner, Oceanwide Holdings, is a publicly traded Beijing-based company that halted the project in 2019 when it ran out of money.

    At least 18 people have been arrested, including 12 on Sunday, on suspicion of trespassing at the site, according to the Los Angeles Police Department.

    The City Council adopted a motion earlier this month, also introduced by De León, that ordered the owners of the property to fence and clean up the area by Saturday. If they miss the deadline, the city will secure the property and charge the owners for the cost, the motion said.

    Just one day before the deadline, the owners have not indicated whether they will comply with the city’s orders.

    The increase of activity at the site has also stretched resources at the Los Angeles Police Department, LAPD Chief Michel Moore said during Tuesday’s Los Angeles Police Commission meeting.

    Officers have spent “more than 3,000 hours” to secure the complex, Moore said.

    “We have called in some officers on an overtime basis, so that we can provide for these added patrols or station them at that site to deter vandals and others from gaining access to it while also ensuring that we meet the minimum deployment requirements for stations across the city,” Moore said.

    During a City Council meeting last week, Councilmember Imelda Padilla said she was surprised at how much attention the skyscraper was getting and attributed it to its large size.

    Padilla mentioned that at least four “mini versions” of the unfinished skyscraper exist across Los Angeles. The buildings include abandoned commercial, manufacturing and family business structures.

    Padilla was referring to abandoned buildings on Sepulveda Boulevard and Kester Avenue, as well as a Denny’s restaurant at Vineland Avenue and Sunland Boulevard, according to a spokesperson for Padilla’s office.

    The fourth building, a Roscoe hardware store, is located at Sunland Boulevard and San Fernando Road, according to her spokesperson. Padilla is currently working on getting it demolished.

    “It’s upsetting that blight gets more attention when it affects wealthier parts of the city,” Padilla said in a statement Thursday. “Yet, working-class neighborhoods like the ones I represent struggle with this issue every day. Blight is unacceptable no matter the ZIP Code, and we deserve to have the same sense of urgency.”

    The Oceanwide Plaza development sits among shops and restaurants near the LA Live complex.

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    Summer Lin, Caroline Petrow-Cohen

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  • California's Padilla personally warned Biden not to fold to GOP on immigration to aid Ukraine

    California's Padilla personally warned Biden not to fold to GOP on immigration to aid Ukraine

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    WASHINGTON — 

    Sen. Alex Padilla approached President Biden at a campaign fundraiser at a sprawling, multilevel mansion in the Pacific Palisades last weekend to offer a warning.

    Biden was at the palatial home of investors José Feliciano and Kwanza Jones to court donors and talk about his administration’s record, but Padilla pulled the president aside to discuss negotiations playing out behind the scenes in the Senate.

    Padilla was worried that Biden was about to set a harmful precedent. The White House, he knew, was considering agreeing to permanent immigration policy changes to win Senate Republicans’ support for roughly $110 billion in one-time aid to Ukraine, Israel and other U.S. allies.

    Oct. 2022 photo of President Biden greeting, from front right, Rep. Karen Bass, D-Calif., Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif., and his wife Angela Padilla, after arriving on Air Force One at LAX.

    (Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press)

    “The primary message I was seeking to convey is warning [Biden] that Republican senators were dragging him into territory that was harmful policy,” Padilla told The Times in a Thursday interview. Biden “was listening intently” and asked when Padilla was last in contact with staffers in the West Wing, the senator said.

    Padilla would not comment further on Biden’s response but said that since Thanksgiving, he has on “at least a daily basis” been in contact with the aides in the West Wing, including White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and Steve Ricchetti, counselor to the president.

    “I wish we were having a conversation and making sure we get [the change] right,” Padilla said. “I think right now we’re in the conversation of making sure we don’t get it wrong.”

    Padilla’s concerns — and his fierce lobbying of the White House — signal that the Ukraine, Israel and border policy deal Biden and Senate leaders are hoping to strike may have trouble winning widespread Democratic support.

    Congress must pass a supplemental funding bill soon in order to get Ukraine the help it needs to fend off Russia’s invasion, argue Biden, Senate leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who visited Washington this week.

    White House officials and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas intervened this week after it became clear that a bipartisan group of senators had failed to reach a deal. Zients, White House chief of staff, met with Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and dropped by negotiations on Capitol Hill on Thursday to emphasize that Biden supports more funding for border security and is open to immigration policy changes, according to a White House official.

    “The president actually does really think we need to do something on the border,” said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks.

    Republicans have pushed for provisions that would allow border officials to expel migrants without screening them for asylum; expand the detention of immigrants, including families; expand the use of fast-tracked deportations from the border to the interior of the U.S.; and limit who can seek asylum. Republicans also sought to end the president’s authority to fast-track humanitarian entry to the U.S., which Biden has turned to repeatedly to welcome tens of thousands of migrants from Afghanistan, Ukraine, Venezuela and Cuba.

    The White House is seriously considering two of the GOP’s proposals: Allowing border officials to swiftly expel migrants if the number of arrivals at the border exceeds a certain level and raising the standard used to initially determine whether a migrant might qualify for asylum.

    “There is not yet an agreement on principles,” a congressional staffer familiar with negotiations told The Times. “Legislative text is a long way off. Negotiators are continuing to make progress towards a deal.”

    Though Republicans insist a deal is out of reach, Democratic negotiators and White House officials have signaled they were open to moving closer to GOP demands on border policy in order to reach a deal before the year’s end. “We’re making progress,” a White House aide said Thursday. “We’re not there yet. But the conversation is going in the right direction.”

    Late Thursday, Schumer cut senators’ holiday short, requiring them to stay in Washington next week for votes. It is unclear when or whether legislative text will emerge or a floor vote be scheduled. And even if the White House and Senate come through with a Christmas miracle, they would still need support from Democrats, who like Padilla have expressed deep concern, and the Republican-controlled House, which is in recess until January.

    House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) signaled Thursday he would not recall his chamber back to Washington.

    “For some reason, the Biden Administration waited until this week to even begin negotiations with Congress on the border issue,” he wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. “While that work should continue, the House will not wait around to receive and debate a rushed product.”

    House Republicans earlier this month approved a $14-billion package to bolster Israel’s efforts in the Gaza Strip. The bill, though, slashed funding approved by Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act, making it dead on arrival in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

    Under Johnson, the House has not approved additional funding for Ukraine or American allies in the Pacific. House Republicans, though, are pushing the Senate negotiators to include their May immigration bill in any deal with the White House.

    That legislation, which amounts to a wish list of GOP immigration priorities, would crack down on unlawful immigration by limiting asylum, codifying former President Trump-championed border policies, extending the border wall, criminalizing visa overstays and mandating that companies verify employees’ legal eligibility to work.

    Much of what is being considered in negotiations would hamstring U.S. Customs and Border Protection while failing to deal with the root cause of migration, said Jason Houser, who was chief of staff at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement until March.

    Houser also worried that negotiations could revive a version of the pandemic-era Title 42 policy, which allowed border officials to quickly expel migrants without considering their requests for asylum. Under the Trump-era policy, arrivals of migrants at the border actually increased, in part because many migrants re-crossed the border immediately after being expelled. Expulsion is not the same as formal deportation, a process that can come with consequences such as criminal prosecution and a five-year ban from the U.S.

    Making it easier for border officials to expel migrants won’t lower the number of people trying to cross the border because some countries will not readmit citizens that the U.S. turns away, Houser said. Expelled migrants — and the human traffickers who move them across borders — would simply try again.

    Kerri Talbot, executive director of the advocacy group Immigration Hub, hopes the negotiations will ultimately fail. Resurrecting an expulsion authority not linked to national public health would be a “blunt tool” that would fail to consider the circumstances of each case, she said.

    Talbot also worries that the White House is weighing raising the legal bar migrants have to clear in their first interview with a border agent to avoid being fast-tracked for deportation.

    “Almost no one has an attorney at that stage,” said Talbot, a veteran immigrant advocate who helped write the 2013 comprehensive immigration reform bill that passed the Senate. “So some people with valid cases will get blocked.”

    The White House would be making a political mistake by conceding to Republicans’ demands, Talbot and Beatriz Lopez, also of Immigration Hub, wrote in a Tuesday letter to White House staff.

    “The majority of voters in America are pro-immigrant and pro-orderliness — not for separating families, deporting long-settled immigrants or ending our asylum system,” they wrote. “Accepting GOP demands is accepting a deficit in support for President Biden in 2024.”

    Other experts, though, say that come next November, a border policy deal might not harm Biden’s reelection chances.

    Much of the reported White House concessions “is a signal that the Biden administration is trying to court the middle if not the right wing on immigration,” said Tom Wong, a political science professor and the founding director of the U.S. Immigration Policy Center at UC San Diego. Although the move could alienate people on the left, voters in the middle “are most consequential” in presidential elections, Wong said.

    “The Biden administration is taking a political risk by moving to the right on immigration,” Wong said. But for people on the left, a second Trump term “would be far more dangerous to our immigration system than a second Biden administration giving in on some Republican policy proposals,” he added.

    Padilla would not say how he would vote on any bill. He, like other senators, is still waiting to see what negotiators produce. But he said he would be hard-pressed “to concede bad policy to Republicans and have nothing to show for helping Dreamers, agriculture workers, essential workers and other long term residents of the United States working, paying taxes, contributing to the strength of our economy.”

    “That would be a horrible place to be in going into [the next election],” Padilla said. “When [Biden] ran for president, he talked about restoring the soul of the nation, staying true to our democratic values and speaking on behalf of asylum seekers and refugees.”

    “When you hear of a lot of ideas that are being entertained, it is absolutely concerning,” Padilla said.

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    Erin B. Logan, Courtney Subramanian, Andrea Castillo

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