ReportWire

Tag: Opinion

  • UN Confronts Existential Challenge After Russias Invasion of Ukraine

    UN Confronts Existential Challenge After Russias Invasion of Ukraine

    [ad_1]

    • Opinion by Arul Louis (united nations)
    • Inter Press Service

    UNITED NATIONS, Feb 20 (IPS) – Paralysed by its own Charter and structure, the world organisation that is charged with preventing wars confronts an existential challenge from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    When Security Council Permanent member Russia sent its troops into a smaller neighbour defying the UN Charter and all norms of international relations a year ago next Friday, Antonio Guterres, “This is the saddest moment in my tenure as Secretary-General of the United Nations”.

    Beyond sadness from the betrayal and the pain inflicted on nations around the world, especially the poorest, the war drives into the very foundation of the UN built nearly 78 years ago.

    Guterres warned this month, “I fear the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war, I fear it is doing so with its eyes wide open”.

    And the invasion has raised questions about the UN’s resolve “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war,” as the first sentence of its Charter declares.

    Yet the Charter itself has paralysed the UN by conferring veto powers for permanent members at the Security Council, which alone can act,.Russia’s vetoes have mired the Council in the morass of inaction renewing calls for its reform.

    Describing the situation, General Assembly President Csaba Korosi said, “The Security Council — the main guarantor of international peace and security – has remained blocked, unable to fully carry out its mandate”.

    “Growing numbers are now demanding its reform,” he said noting that at the Assembly’s High-Level Week in September, “one-third of world leaders underscored the urgent need to reform the Council — more than double the number in 2021.”

    While the reform process — in which India has a special interest as an aspirant for a permanent seat –that has itself been stymied for nearly two decades has come to the fore, it is not likely to happen any time soon.

    But the General Assembly, which does not have the enforcement powers of the Council, has used the imbroglio to set a precedent forcing permanent members when they wield their veto to face it and explain their action.

    Russia appeared before the Assembly to answer for its vetoes while facing a barrage of criticism.

    The Assembly also revived a seldom-used action under the 1950 Uniting for Peace Resolution of calling for an emergency special session when the Council fails in its primary duty of maintaining peace and security.

    It passed a resolution in March demanding that Russia “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders”.

    It received 141 votes – getting more than two-thirds of the votes 193 required for it – while India was among the 35 countries that abstained. This, as well as the subsequent three passed last year ultimately were but an exercise in moral authority with no means to enforce it.

    A proposal made by Mexico and France in 2015 calling on permanent members to refrain from using their vetoes on issues involving them also has been getting a re-airing– but to no avail.

    India, which was a member of the Council last year was caught in the middle of the polarisation at the UN, both at the Council and the Assembly, because of its dependence on Russian arms and the support it had received at crucial times in the Security Council from its predecessor the Soviet Union.

    India abstained at least 11 times on substantive resolutions relating to Ukraine in both chambers of the UN, including resolutions at the Council sponsored by Moscow.

    India faced tremendous pressure from the West to join in voting on resolutions against Russia and openly take a definitive stand condemning Moscow.

    External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told the Security Council in September, “As the Ukraine conflict continues to rage, we are often asked whose side we are on. And our answer, each time, is straight and honest. India is on the side of peace and will remain firmly there”.

    And while keeping the semblance of neutrality while voting, India came closest to taking a stand in support of Ukraine — and by inference against Russia — when he said, “We are on the side that respects the UN Charter and its founding principles”.

    Now out of the Council, New Delhi’s profile has been lowered and it also does not have to publicly display its tight-rope walk as often, although it may yet have to do it again this week when the Assembly is likely to have a resolution around the invasion’s anniversary.

    The pain of the invasion is felt far beyond the borders of Ukraine.

    Guterres said, “The Russian invasion of Ukraine is inflicting untold suffering on the Ukrainian people, with profound global implications”.

    The fallout of the war has set back the UN’s omnibus development goals.

    More immediately, several countries came to the brink of famine and the spectre of hunger still stalks the world because of shortages of agricultural input, while many countries, including many developed nations, face severe energy and financial problems.

    The war shut off exports of food grains from Ukraine and limited exports from Russia, the two countries that have become the world’s food baskets.

    Besides depriving many countries of food grains, the shortages raised global prices.

    The one victory for the UN has been the Black Sea agreement forged with Russia, Ukraine and Turkey in July to allow safe passage for ships carrying foodgrains from Ukrainian ports.

    Guteress’ Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said that in about 1,500 trips by ships so far, “more than 21.3 million tonnes of grain and food products have been moved so far during the initiative, helping to bring down global food prices and stabilising markets”.

    A UN outfit, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has also made an impact during the war, working to protect nuclear facilities in Ukraine that were occupied by Russia’s forces while shelling around them.

    It said that it has managed to station teams of safety and security experts at Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and at Chernobyl, the site of the 1986 disaster “to help reduce the risk of a severe nuclear accident during the ongoing conflict in the country”.

    Arul Louis is a New York-based nonresident senior fellow with the New Delhi-based think tank, Society for Policy Studies.

    IPS UN Bureau


    Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • My fiancé and I are 60. His adult daughter is opposed to our marriage — and insists on inheriting her father’s $3.2 million estate. How should we handle her?

    My fiancé and I are 60. His adult daughter is opposed to our marriage — and insists on inheriting her father’s $3.2 million estate. How should we handle her?

    [ad_1]

    What advice would you give to a widow and widower considering marriage on how to manage finances — and deal with adult children?

    We are both 60 years old and plan to work a few more years, mostly for health insurance. We both have about $1.5 million in retirement savings accounts. Our spouses’ 401(k)s and IRAs rolled into our accounts.

    I have another $500,000 in a brokerage and he has almost another $1 million. We both own homes with $300,000 mortgages. Mine is worth $500,000, Paul’s (not his real name) home is worth $1 million. We have no other debt.

    We both have one married, and one unmarried child that we help. We both have two grandchildren.

    We should be set up very well. Here’s the concern: His married, well-off daughter is very aggressive about inheritance. She wants the family home retitled in a trust. She wants all life insurance and brokerage beneficiaries in her name. Her brother has had drug-addiction problems, so she’s cutting him out even though it seems he’s the one who will need help.

    “‘She wants the family home retitled in a trust. She wants all life insurance and brokerage beneficiaries in her name.’”

    The daughter isn’t thrilled about our relationship and suggests we just live together. For religious reasons, I would never do this. Grandma shacking up? What example would I set for my grandchildren?

    As a widowed couple, we are realistic enough to plan for the time one of us is left alone. Paul has diabetes, high blood pressure and already sees a cardiologist. What if he has a heart attack? Stroke? Or if he dies?

    What’s a fair way to mingle finances and allow security for me should he predecease me while allowing Paul’s daughter to ultimately inherit?

    By the way, my children have never raised money as an issue. After we both cared for spouses through cancer, they know life is short and just want us to be happy.

    Happy to Have Found Love Again

    Dear Happy,

    She is overstepping the line, and overplaying her hand.

    The first rule of inheritance is that it’s not yours until the decedent’s money is sitting in your bank account. Your fiancé’s daughter can make all the demands she likes, but the only thing your fiancé has to do is say, “You don’t need to be concerned. My affairs are all in order. I’ve always taken care of my own affairs, and I am not changing now.”

    How your fiancé decides to split his estate is entirely up to him, and can be done in consultation with a financial adviser and attorney, taking into account each of his children’s individual needs. For instance, if you move in together, he could give you a life estate, allowing you to live in the home for the rest of your life, and dividing the property between his two children thereafter. 

    Given that you have your own home, however, you may decide to rent it out, and move back there in the event that he predeceases you. There are so many ways to split an inheritance. You could look at the intestate laws of your state, and follow them. In New York, the spouse inherits the first $50,000 of intestate property, plus half of the balance, and the kids inherit the rest.

    “Paul” may decide to set up a trust for his son, so he can provide an income for him over the course of his life. If he has or had issues with addiction, this will help him while not putting temptation in his way with a lump sum of money. The best kind of trust is the one that deals with any recurring issues directly, and takes into account the person’s circumstances.

    Martin Hagan, a Pennsylvania-based estate-planning attorney who has practiced for four decades, writes: “First, it would authorize distributions only if the beneficiary is actively pursuing treatment and recovery.  Second, it would limit distributions to paying only for the expenses incurred in carrying out the treatment plan that will have been developed for the beneficiary.”

    You have $2 million collectively in a retirement and brokerage account and $200,000 equity in his home, and you can use these next seven years or so to pay off your mortgage, while your fiancé has $2.5 million and $700,000 in equity on his home. You are both well set up for retirement, and let’s hope you have many years to spend together.

    The financial services industry has many opinions. You should, advisers say, have 10 times your salary saved by the time you’re 65 years old. You don’t mention your salary, but I would be surprised if many people in America had that much money saved, especially given all of the unexpected events — divorce, illness, job loss — that can occur in the intervening years.

    You also have other priorities than dealing with an aggressive daughter/daughter-in-law. AARP suggests that most people should look into long-term care insurance between the ages of 60 and 65, around the time most people are eligible to qualify for Medicare. If you do it earlier, it can serve as a savings account in the event that you never need long-term care, AARP says.

    As retirement columnist Richard Quinn recently wrote on MarketWatch, everybody’s circumstances are different. “Living in retirement isn’t about averages. It isn’t about what other people do or the opinions of experts, especially online instant experts who don’t know anything about you and have yet to experience many years of retirement themselves.”

    Don’t give too much oxygen or power to your future daughter-in-law. Her father should give her a stock answer, and be firm. If she persists, he can say, “The subject is closed. I need you to respect the decisions I make about my own life, respect my privacy on these matters, and it would be nice if you would be happy for us, and support us in our marriage together.”

    You can’t change people. But you can change wills.  

    You can email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions related to coronavirus at qfottrell@marketwatch.com, and follow Quentin Fottrell on Twitter.

    Check out the Moneyist private Facebook group, where we look for answers to life’s thorniest money issues. Readers write in to me with all sorts of dilemmas. Post your questions, tell me what you want to know more about, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.

    The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.

    More from Quentin Fottrell:

    My boyfriend wants me to move into his home and pay rent. I suggested only paying for utilities and groceries. What should I do?

    My dinner date ‘forgot’ his wallet and took the receipt for his taxes. Should I have called him out for being cheapskate?

    My boyfriend lives in my house with my 2 kids, but refuses to pay rent or contribute to food and utility bills. What’s my next move?

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • When Two Elephants Fight: How the Global South Uses Non-Alignment To Avoid Great Power Rivalries

    When Two Elephants Fight: How the Global South Uses Non-Alignment To Avoid Great Power Rivalries

    [ad_1]

    A return of non-alignment was evident at the March 2022 UN General Assembly special session on Ukraine. Fifty-two governments from the global south did not support western sanctions against Russia. CREDIT: Manuel Elias/UN
    • Opinion
    • Inter Press Service

    Feb 17 (IPS) – An African proverb notes that “when two elephants fight, it is the grass underneath that suffers”. Many states in the global south are, therefore, seeking to avoid getting caught in the middle of any future battles between the US and China. Instead, they are calling for a renewal of the concept of non-alignment. This was an approach employed in the 1950s by newly independent countries to balance between the two ideological power blocs of east and west during the era of the Cold War 

    The new non-alignment stance is based on a perceived need to maintain southern sovereignty, pursue socio-economic development, and benefit from powerful external partners without having to choose sides. It also comes from historical grievances during the era of slavery, colonialism and Cold War interventionism.

    These grievances include unilateral American military interventions in Grenada (1983), Panama (1989) and Iraq (2003) as well as support by the US and France for autocracies in countries like Egypt, Morocco, Chad and Saudi Arabia, when it suits their interests.

    Many southern governments are particularly irked by America’s Manichaean division of the world into “good” democracies and “bad” autocracies. More recently, countries in the global south have highlighted north-south trade disputes and western hoarding of COVID-19 vaccines as reinforcing the unequal international system of “global apartheid”.

    A return of non-alignment was evident at the March 2022 UN General Assembly special session on Ukraine. Fifty-two governments from the global south did not support western sanctions against Russia. This, despite Russia’s clear violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, which southern states have historically condemned.

    A month later, 82 southern states refused to back western efforts to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council.

    These included powerful southern states such as India, Indonesia, South Africa, Ethiopia, Brazil, Argentina and Mexico.

    The origins of non-alignment

    In 1955, a conference was held in the Indonesian city of Bandung to regain the sovereignty of Africa and Asia from western imperial rule. The summit also sought to foster global peace, promote economic and cultural cooperation, and end racial domination. Governments attending were urged to abstain from collective defence arrangements with great powers.

    Six years later, in 1961, the 120-strong Non-Aligned Movement emerged. Members were required to shun military alliances such as NATO and the Warsaw Pact, as well as bilateral security treaties with great powers.

    Non-alignment advocated “positive” – not passive – neutrality. States were encouraged to contribute actively to strengthening and reforming institutions such as the UN and the World Bank.

    India’s patrician prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, is widely regarded to have been the intellectual “father of non-alignment”. He regarded the concept as an insurance policy against world domination by either superpower bloc or China. He also advocated nuclear disarmament.

    Indonesia’s military strongman, Suharto, championed non-alignment through “regional resilience”. South-east Asian states were urged to seek autonomy and prevent external powers from intervening in the region.

    Egypt’s charismatic prophet of Arab unity, Gamal Abdel Nasser, strongly backed the use of force in conducting wars of liberation in Algeria and southern Africa, buying arms and receiving aid from both east and west.
    For his part, Ghana’s prophet of African unity, Kwame Nkrumah, promoted the idea of an African High Command as a common army to ward off external intervention and support Africa’s liberation.

    The Non-Aligned Movement, however, suffered from the problems of trying to maintain cohesion among a large, diverse group. Many countries were clearly aligned to one or other power bloc.

    By the early 1980s, the group had switched its focus from east-west geo-politics to north–south geo-economics. The Non-Aligned Movement started advocating a “new international economic order”. This envisaged technology and resources being transferred from the rich north to the global south in order to promote industrialisation.

    The north, however, simply refused to support these efforts.

    Latin America and south-east Asia

    Most of the recent thinking and debates on non-alignment have occurred in Latin America and south-east Asia.

    Most Latin American countries have refused to align with any major power. They have also ignored Washington’s warnings to avoid doing business with China. Many have embraced Chinese infrastructure, 5G technology and digital connectivity.

    Bolivia, Cuba, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Many of the region’s states declined western requests to impose sanctions on Moscow. The return of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as president of Brazil – the largest and wealthiest country in the region – heralds the “second coming” (following his first presidency between 2003 and 2011) of a champion of global south solidarity.

    For its part, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has shown that non-alignment has as much to do with geography as strategy. Singapore sanctioned Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. Indonesia condemned the intervention but rejected sanctions. Myanmar backed the invasion while Laos and Vietnam refused to condemn Moscow’s aggression.

    Many ASEAN states have historically championed “declaratory non-alignment”. They have used the concept largely rhetorically while, in reality, practising a promiscuous “multi-alignment”. Singapore and the Philippines forged close military ties with the US; Myanmar with India; Vietnam with Russia, India, and the US; and Malaysia with Britain, Australia, and New Zealand.

    This is also a region in which states simultaneously embrace and fear Chinese economic assistance and military cooperation. This, while seeking to avoid any external powers dominating the region or forming exclusionary military alliances.

    Strong African voices are largely absent from these non-alignment debates, and are urgently needed.

    Pursuing non-alignment in Africa

    Africa is the world’s most insecure continent, hosting 84% of UN peacekeepers. This points to a need for a cohesive southern bloc that can produce a self-sustaining security system – Pax Africana – while promoting socio-economic development.

    Uganda aims to champion this approach when it takes over the three-year rotating chair of the Non-Aligned Movement in December 2023. Strengthening the organisation into a more cohesive bloc, while fostering unity within the global south, is a major goal of its tenure.

    Uganda has strong potential allies. For example, South Africa has championed “strategic non-alignment” in the Ukraine conflict, advocating a UN-negotiated solution, while refusing to sanction its BRICS ally, Russia. It has also relentlessly courted its largest bilateral trading partner, China, whose Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS bank are building infrastructure across the global south.

    Beijing is Africa’s largest trading partner at US$254 billion, and builds a third of the continent’s infrastructure.

    If a new non-alignment is to be achieved in Africa, the foreign military bases of the US, France and China – and the Russian military presence – must, however, be dismantled.

    At the same time the continent should continue to support the UN-led rules-based international order, condemning unilateral interventions in both Ukraine and Iraq. Pax Africana would best be served by:

    • building local security capacity in close cooperation with the UN;
    • promoting effective regional integration; and
    • fencing off the continent from meddling external powers, while continuing to welcome trade and investment from both east and west.The Conversation

    Adekeye Adebajo, Professor and Senior research fellow, Centre for the Advancement of Scholarship, University of Pretoria

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Taking a Stance on Feminists Prejudice Against Religious Minority Women

    Taking a Stance on Feminists Prejudice Against Religious Minority Women

    [ad_1]

    • Opinion by Mariz Tadros (brighton, uk)
    • Inter Press Service

    BRIGHTON, UK, Feb 17 (IPS) – Since researching the experiences of gender discrimination against women in poverty who belong to religious minorities, many fellow feminists have turned their back on me.

    The inherent assumption among some of my feminist critics is that by defending women who are targeted on account of their religious affiliation, I am defending their religions. Yet defending the rights of a Hindu woman in Pakistan or Muslim woman in India do not constitute defending Hinduism or Islam.

    Defending a woman’s right not to be discriminated against because of her identity and challenging religious bigotry both go hand in hand. We need to challenge all political projects that seek to homogenize people while simultaneously defending women, minorities, artists and others whose positioning accentuates their experiences of inequality.

    Feminist reluctance to address injustices experienced by women who belong to religious minorities is also driven by concern that we end up empowering religious movements whose ethos is against women’s equality.

    Again, we need to distinguish between women who are the targets of hate because they do not share the same faith as the majority, and anti-feminist movements who often are from the majority. We need to show solidarity with the former while challenging the latter.

    Well-meaning progressive, feminists based in the West are reluctant to openly advocate for the rights of religious minority women living in Muslim majority contexts because of legitimate concerns that this would feed into orientalist (racist) representations of radical militant Islamist groups or by intolerant sections of society.

    Yet can we be inadvertently reproduce a colonialist mindset when we decide to omit the experiences of minority women out of fear of misappropriation in the west?

    Why should women who have experienced genocide be denied transnational feminist solidarities because it would be more progressive to focus on the Muslims who were against the genocide.

    Research undertaken by the Coalition for Religious Equality and Inclusive Development, shows that in countries including Iraq, Pakistan and Nigeria, experiences for women are made worse where their experiences of gender inequality, religious marginality and socio-economic exclusion intersect.

    For example, women belonging to religious minorities become easy targets of vilification and assault because of the visible manifestation of difference through what they wear. Yazidi, Sabean or Christian women are exposed to harassment in disproportionate levels in Iraq because they do not cover their hair while in Pakistan, Hindu women dressed in Sari are subject to ridicule and targeting because their middle bodies are said to be ‘exposed’.

    Even if you belong to the majority religion, and you cover up more than the others, this still means exposure to harassment for being seen to practice the religion differently, as experienced by Ahmediyya women in Pakistan and the Izala Sufi women in Nigeria.

    Women from religious minorities can also be at significant risk of sexual assault. While all women in patriarchal societies are exposed to sexual harassment independently of their religious affiliation, women affiliated to religiously marginalized communities are targeted because of the circulation of stereotypes that they are more available or ‘fair game’ or that men are not obligated to respect them the same respect as those from the majority religion.

    While all women living in poverty suffer the impact of gender, caste and socio-economic exclusion combined, the experiences of discrimination become more acute and severe when shaped by ideological prejudice.

    In our research in the aftermath of covid, Muslim women spoke about being denied health care because of the scapegoating of Muslims for the spread of the pandemic, while in Iraq Yazidi women spoke of how despicable stereotypes of Yazidi women not washing meant doctors denied them treatment.

    The feminist movement cannot continue to represent itself as committed to inclusivity through intersectionality (the recognition of and redress to- interface of gender, race, class, ableism and so forth in shaping and influencing power dynamics) while turning its back on women who come from a religious minority background where their rights are denied.

    A review by doctoral researcher Amy Quinn-Graham of UN Women’s website and publications related to intersectionality and/or ‘minorities’ from 2014 – 2019, showed that compared to indigenous women, migrant women, women with disabilities, women and girls living in rural localities, older women, and women and girls of African descent, all of which were accounted for in the UN’s Commission on the Status of Women agreed conclusions from 2017 onwards, concerns for the vulnerabilities facing “ethnic, religious and linguistic minorities” were raised only once and for the first time in 2019, by the EU.

    Certainly, there are feminist movements, scholars and those engaged in policymaking who recognize and seek redress for discrimination on grounds of religion experienced by socio-economically excluded women, but it seems they are the exception, rather than the norm.

    It is not too late for us to be inclusive, and this International Women’s Day we should recognize and show solidarity with women who belong to religious minorities living on the margins. We just have to start by not making excuses for their omission from our “intersectional lens”.

    Professor Mariz Tadros is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Development Studies; a professor of politics and development and an IDS Research Fellow specialising in the politics and human development of the Middle East. Areas of specialisation include democratisation, Islamist politics, gender, sectarianism, human security and religion and development. Prof Tadros has convened the Coalition for Religious Equality and Inclusive Development (CREID) since November 2018.

    IPS UN Bureau


    Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • How the Privatization of Eletrobras May Lead To an Uncertain Future in Brazils Energy Transition and Favor Price Increase to the End-Consumer

    How the Privatization of Eletrobras May Lead To an Uncertain Future in Brazils Energy Transition and Favor Price Increase to the End-Consumer

    [ad_1]

    Brazil’s then-President Jair Bolsonaro launched the sale of shares of Eletrobras, the largest company in the electricity sector in Brazil, which will be privatized through its capitalization. CREDIT: Alan Santos/PR-Public Photos
    • Opinion by Victoria Barreto Vieira do Prado (new york)
    • Inter Press Service

    NEW YORK, Feb 15 (IPS) – Eletrobras is Latin America’s biggest electricity company, responsible for around 30% of Brazil’s power capacity and 50% of all its transmission lines. In 2021, the Brazilian government announced it would reduce its controlling shares in this state-owned company from 72% to 10%.  Given Eletrobras’ dominant role in Brazil’s power sector, this divestment in the government’s controlling shares merits a more complete understanding of the implications for Brazil’s energy transition and energy security.

    This is because the law that was passed to make this happen raises important risks to the decarbonization of the country’s power sector and has the potential to increase electricity tariffs.

    How the legal process that open the door for the government’s controlling stake on Eletrobras raised questions about the energy transition

    The government’s dilution of its participation as Eletrobras’ major shareholder required legal approval in congress, consolidated through a law now commonly known as Eletrobras’ privatization law (Law 14.182/2021).

    Given how politically charged this law is and the electoral dynamics due to looming presidential elections in the following year (2022), the government decided to fast-track this bill in congress under a mechanism known as a provisional measure (medida provisória), thus expediting its approval process. The deadline for approval of bills using this fast-track provision is of 120 days.

    While an effective legislative tool, the use of this fast-track provision in this law was criticized by some institutions in Brazil as not “conducive to the timeframe required to conduct a comprehensive study” that the privatization of a company like Eletrobras would have merited.

    The bill was approved on the eve of the fast-track deadline for its approval. However, it contained over 500 amendments, many of which were unrelated to the company’s privatization.

    This strategy is known as jabuti, where legislators take advantage of the provisional measure’s fast-paced characteristics to include amendments which may favor their own political interests. By adding amendments to key clauses of the bill, as was done in Eletrobras’ privatization, the likelihood of vetoing the added amendments is close to null.

    Of all the amendments to the Eletrobras’ privatization law, the mandatory installation of 8 GW of additional thermal gas power capacity to be deployed between 2026 and 2030 was perhaps the most troublesome. To understand how massive this is, this provision in theory forces Brazil to expand natural gas installed capacity by 56% per cent from around 14.3 GW in 2021.

    While this measure gave no responsibility to Eletrobras for the deployment of this thermal capacity, it signals the government’s direction and ambition for the power sector. In addition, this amendment included a provision that the new thermal power plants had to function constantly for 70% of the time throughout the next 15 years.

    Such mandatory use for thermal in the future, would result if followed through, in an expected 33% increase of greenhouse gas emissions and redraw the country’s electricity matrix which is currently one of the cleanest globally with 82.9% renewables (world average being 28.6%).

    The law, as approved today, also disfavors renewable sources, currently the cheapest form of energy in Brazil, which have no additional variable costs of operation to fuel the power grid.

    The new law requirements may increase installation costs by up to R$ 6.6 billon (roughly USD 1.3 billion) when compared to the prior Brazilian national energy expansion strategy and thus reflect in price increases for the end-consumer. A requirement to operate the thermal powerplants for 70% of the time has negative implications for the future development of non-hydropower renewables given that it reduces wind and solar power capacity expansion in up to 12 GW and 3.5 GW until 2030, respectively.

    The law does not significantly affect hydropower capacity expansion (already projected to slow down), which would increase modestly in about 0.2 GW in the same time frame and remain responsible for one of the largest shares of the Brazilian power mix.

    The impact of this build up in thermal power in Brazil

    The inclusion of gas-powered plants is supposed to address energy security and support the company’s efficiency in providing reliable energy nationwide as frequent droughts threaten hydropower capacity. While understandable as an objective, as it stands, the current provisions are problematic in many fronts, not only in terms of the GHG emission implications.

    According to the law’s provisions, the mandatory regions where these thermal powerplants are to be installed are mostly in water-abundant regions. Second the natural gas infrastructure is lacking. Third, additional infrastructure investments may lead to higher energy prices for the end-consumer.

    Gas feeding these power plants will mostly come from Brazil’s southeast region to be transported across the country, which adds to transportation costs and emissions. Through this lens, the government-issued Ten-Year Energy Plan (PDE 2031) acknowledges the difficulty and costs of implementation due to the necessary added infrastructure requirements. The report implies that meeting the mandated targets may be challenging. This was reflected in October 2022 auctions in which 1.17 GW of additional capacity for gas-powered power plants were contracted at a price seven times higher than those bided at similar auctions in previous years.

    In addition, the implementation of new powerplants would require decades of on-going operation to ensure full amortization of costs. This may lead to stranded assets as demand for cleaner sources of energies outpace fossil fuels. Although the government has claimed that part of the additional installed capacity will be used to replace existing thermal power plants (to be switched off by 2024), emissions from additional infrastructure and the 70% intermittency requirement outpace the efficiency gains from the new installations.

    This is reinforced when added to the additional requirement of developing 721 kilometers of transmission lines in the Amazon Rainforest region, 125 kilometers of which are located in indigenous land. This implies additional infrastructure costs and more emissions (linked to deforestation). Equally difficult is that such buildup of infrastructure in the Amazon Rainforest and disregard to social and environmental licenses infringes on Brazil’s Sustainable Development Goals, thus also going against national energy planning.

    Even if it is in the law, will Brazil’s be able to attract capital for natural gas power plants?

    While technically enforceable by the Eletrobras’ law, many questions remain on whether companies will be willing to invest in capital-intensive projects which may soon become stranded – especially when penalties for doing otherwise remain unclear.

    In addition, it is unlikely that Eletrobras’ new shareholders would be on board with such a massive of buildout in thermal power plants. Singapore’s sovereign fund, GIC; Canadian pension fund, CPPIB; and, Brazilian Investment Management company, 3G Radar, each hold around 11% of Eletrobras.

    All of these financial actors have shown considerable interests towards investing in the energy transition and decarbonizing their portfolios. It is thus believed that this could hinder their willingness in investing in high-cost gas power plants which require additional infrastructure investments in order to become profitable, not to mention that Brazil does not produce enough natural gas and thus might need to be imported via very expensive LNG.

    Regardless, if the additional capacity of 8 GW of thermal gas power does go through, one should expect these power plants to be running for a considerably long time in order to fully amortize the investments. This could lead to a 33% emission increase which will slow down the Brazilian government’s energy transition strategy.

    Lula, Brazil’s new president, has indicated that its government will revise this 8 GW mandate, an attempt to remove the 70% inflexibility requirement. Instead, the new government might make the additional power as back-up for renewable energy intermittence, diminishing the potential environmental hinderance foreseen in the law. In order to do so, a new motion would have to be approved in congress – a usually time-intensive measure. This regulatory uncertainty may in the meantime decrease energy investments and impact the pace of the energy transition.

    The Eletrobras law also pushed for renewables

    The Eletrobras law did promote measures which favor the energy transition. However, if all these requirements are fulfilled, they may also increase electricity prices for the end consumers.

    The law dictated new concessions for hydropower generation for the next 30 years, ensuring dispatchable renewable energy, which contributes to the country’s energy transition. However, it favors hydropower plants which fall under the price quota regime, allowing them to sell the generated electricity under market prices rather than through imposed limits by the national electricity agency (ANEEL). This may lead to higher tariff prices, which could reach R$ 167/MWh in 2051 (compared to R$ 93/MWh today). The government tried to curtail this by mandating that half of the revenue generated through Eletrobras’ privatization shall be directed to diminishing the tariff increase. Despite this measure, this could still represent up to eight times less than the required investment needed to keep prices low.

    An additional measure promotes the development of small hydropower plants, to be developed over the next 20 years. While this promotes dispatchable renewable energy and addresses the need to replace existing old hydro powerplants which would soon cease operations, it also favors the most expensive form of renewable energy available, again creating possible cost impacts for the end-consumer. The government addressed this by creating a price cap according to 2019 auction prices adjusted to inflation (R$ 314.55 / MWh). These prices remain 7.7% higher than those found in 2021 auctions.

    The government also included the extension of PROINFA by 20 years. PROINFA is a governmental program established between 2002 and 2022 which created subsidies for biomass and small hydro power plants, wind, and solar farm owners in order to incentivize the production of renewable energy sources in the country.

    While positive in theory, such extension would only favor previous contracts as opposed to a structural revision of the Brazilian power grid and costs of renewable technologies. Most of these investments have already been amortized and cost of technology has decreased significantly.

    Its impact in promoting the energy transition therefore, can be questioned, as it is not necessarily deploying new renewable technologies, but rather favoring outdated contracts at higher costs. A more interesting alternative instead would have been to promote the expansion of new low-cost renewable energy projects through new auctions.

    Final thoughts: The Mixed Outcome of Electrobras’ privatization Law

    In conclusion, it is unclear what impact will Eletrobras’ privatization truly incur for the country’s energy transition. It is argued that through its privatization, the company will now be freed from bureaucracy, allowing it to speed up investments and increase its ability to invest in new (riskier) clean technologies.

    Eletrobras’ CEO, has been known for his inclination towards green technologies and has advocated for green hydrogen investments in several occasions. The same is expected from the new shareholders, who have been seen to adopt decarbonization investment strategies. Eletrobras’ net zero strategies across scope 1, 2, and 3 are also contradictory to exactly the amendments of the law, claiming to decarbonize through the sales of thermal-powered power plants and I-REC purchases.

    However, it is important to note that the law does push for thermal gas expansion, which, if occurs, may shift and delay Brazil’s energy transition. The absence of clear penalizations and accountability makes it unclear on whether the additional capacity of 8 GW of thermal gas powerplants will indeed be adopted.

    While it is unclear how much the privatization will truly impact the energy transition, increase in tariff prices may be likely. The law and the subsequent auctions since its approval, seem to favor costly renewable contracts, which will likely increase tariffs for the end-consumer. Tariff increases may also happen due to the expansion of PROINFA, promotion of small hydro power plants, and implied cost of necessary added infrastructure for thermal gas-powered plants.

    Victoria Barreto Vieira do Prado is a MSc. Sustainability Management student at Columbia University. Prior to her studies, she has worked in the development of the Brazilian Voluntary Carbon Market via her work at Carbonext, and in the decarbonization strategies of major players in the Brazilian hard-to-abate sectors as a consultant

    References

    ANEEEL. (2022)(A). Três usinas a gás natural são licitadas em Leilão de Reserva de Capacidade. Gov.br. Retrieved October 30th.

    ANEEEL. (2022)(B). Resultados do Leilão – LEILÃO DE GERAÇÃO ANEEL Nº 008/2022 – Resumo Vendedor 02° LEILÃO DE RESERVA DE CAPACIDADE – ENERGIA. Epe.br. Retrieved Janyary 7th

    CCEE. (2022). Resultados Leilão ANEEL Outubro 2022. CCEE. Retrieved from November 1st

    Eletrobras (2022)(A). Apresentação de resultados 2T22. RI Eletrobras. Retrieved October 24th, 2022

    Eletrobras (2022)(B). Estretatégica Climática. Portal Eletrobras. Retrieved January 7th, 2023

    Empresa de Pesquisa Energética; Ministério de Minas e Energia. (2022). Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia. Gov.br. Retrieved October 25th

    Epbr. (2022). Primeiro leilão de térmicas da MP da Eletrobras não interioriza o gás. PSE Unicamp. Retrieved October, 30th, 2022

    Instituto Escolhas; Escopo Energia. (August 2021). Relatório desestatização da Eletrobras: Impactos no planejamento do setor elétrico. Escolhas.org. Retrieved October 24th, 2022

    Ministério de Minas e Energia. (2022). Visão do MME sobre os impactos da capitalização da Eletrobras. Gov.br. Retrieved October, 30th, 2022

    Pamplona, Nicola. (2022). Eletrobras decide sair de carvão e desmobilizar térmicas mais poluentes.Folha de S. Paulo. Retrieved January, 7th, 2023

    Ramalho, André. (2022). Tolmasquim defende térmicas flexíveis e vê renováveis como soft power para o Brasil. Epbr. Retrieved January 7th, 2023

    República Federativa do Brasil. (2021). Lei Nº 14.182, de 12 de julho de 2021. Diário Oficial da União. Retrieved October 25th, 2022

    Tomalsquim, Mauricio. (2022). Proposta de Privatizac?a?o da Eletrobras e seus desdobramentos para o Setor Ele?trico Brasileiro. PSE Unicamp. Retrieved October, 30th, 2022

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Outlook for 2023: Children in Polycrisis

    Outlook for 2023: Children in Polycrisis

    [ad_1]

    • Opinion by Jasmina Byrne (united nations)
    • Inter Press Service

    UNITED NATIONS, Feb 14 (IPS) – The year 2022 was incredibly difficult for people around the world. We were confronted by a series of major crises, including a continuing pandemic, a major war in Europe, an energy crisis, rising inflation and food insecurity.

    These events hit children particularly hard, compounding the already severe impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Millions of children had to flee their homes because of conflict or extreme weather events. At the same time, child malnutrition and the number of children in need of humanitarian assistance rose.

    The war in Ukraine, for example, has led to higher food and energy prices, which in turn has contributed to rising global hunger and inflation. Efforts to address inflation through rising interest rates in the US have driven up the value of the dollar against other currencies, making developing countries’ imports, debt repayments and their ability to access external financing more difficult.

    As we explain in our new report, ‘Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook’, these realities have added up to what has been termed a ‘polycrisis’ – multiple, simultaneous crises that are strongly interdependent.

    As we look to 2023, it’s clear that the polycrisis is likely to continue shaping children’s lives. The effects of these intertwined and far-reaching trends will be difficult to untangle, and solutions will be difficult to find as policymakers struggle to keep up with multiple urgent needs.

    The situation is particularly dire in economically developing countries. Higher food and energy prices have contributed to a rise in global hunger and malnourishment, with children among the most affected.

    The polycrisis is also limiting access to healthcare for many children, making it harder for them to receive treatment and routine vaccinations. Recovery from learning losses caused by the closure of schools will be slow and felt for years to come, while the shift to remote learning has left children from low-income families facing the greatest challenges in catching up.

    At the same time, the combination of higher financing needs, soaring inflation and a tighter fiscal outlook will widen the education financing gap needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

    Climate change, too, is also a part of this polycrisis, with visible effects, including devastating floods in Pakistan and droughts in East Africa, making it harder for children to access education, food and healthcare, and causing widespread displacement of populations.

    All these factors have led UNICEF to estimate that 300 million children will be in need of humanitarian assistance this year. This staggering number highlights the urgency for international organizations and governments to step in and provide assistance.

    But the polycrisis doesn’t have to lead to further instability or, ultimately, systemic breakdown. Some of the stresses we saw in 2022 have already weakened, and new opportunities may arise to alleviate the situation.

    For example, food and oil prices have dropped from their peaks, and good harvests in some countries may help to lower global food prices. Fortunately, we know there are solutions and strategies that work.

    One potential solution is to increase investment in social protection programmes, such as cash transfers and food assistance, which can help alleviate the immediate economic impacts of the polycrisis on families. These programmes can also help to build resilience and reduce vulnerabilities.

    The establishment of learning recovery programmes will help tackle the learning losses and prevent children from falling further behind. And early prevention, detection and treatment plans for severe child malnutrition have been effective in reducing child wasting.

    Ultimately, a coordinated and collective effort is needed to protect the rights and well-being of children. This includes not only providing immediate assistance but also addressing the underlying causes of the polycrisis and building resilience for the future.

    This cannot be achieved without a more coordinated and collective effort from international organizations and governments to help mitigate the effects of the polycrisis and protect children’s futures.

    And, crucially, we must listen to children and young people themselves so that we can understand the future they want to build and live in. In fact, we followed this approach when we were assessing trends for ‘Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis’, asking young people from across the world age 16 to 29 to give us their views on some of the challenges their generation faces.

    It’s critical that we take action to protect the most vulnerable among us. The future may be uncertain, but by working together we can help to build a better future for our children.

    Jasmina Byrne is Chief of Foresight and Policy, UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight.

    ‘Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook’, produced by UNICEF Innocenti – Office of Global Research and Foresight, unpacks the trends that will impact children over the next 12 months.

    Source: UNICEF

    IPS UN Bureau


    Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Lets Eat Plastics!

    Lets Eat Plastics!

    [ad_1]

    Source: Our World in Data.
    • Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
    • Inter Press Service

    PORTLAND, USA, Feb 13 (IPS) – With one in ten people in the world going hungry, food prices hitting record highs, and the worsening conditions of the environment and climate, it’s time for the world’s population of 8 billion to eat something that is available, abundant and inexpensive: plastics.

    Their introduction at the start of the 20th century began the rapid start of the Age of Plastics. Today plastics are ubiquitous, easily transported and stored, and readily available even in the most remote corners of the world.

    Plastics have become such an integral part of human daily life from birth to death, completely infiltrating the environment of planet Earth. Plastics can be found anywhere, including in water, on land and even in the atmosphere

    Every year the world produces approximately 400 million metric tons of plastics. That amounts to about 50 kilograms of plastics, or 110 pounds, for each person on the planet.

    Today’s annual amount of plastics produced could certainly be increased. With the proper political commitment, private investments and improved technologies, the annual production of plastics could be greatly expanded.

    A tenfold increase in the annual production of plastics would yield no less than 500 kilograms, or 1,100 pounds, of a variety of plastics for every man, woman and child on the planet. That would provide an individual daily consumption of 1.4 kilograms, or 3 pounds, from a broad diversity of plastics, which is approximately the amount of food people eat each day.

    In addition, the cumulative amount of plastics that has already been produced worldwide is estimated at approximately 10 billion metric tons. That vast valuable global resource yields about 1,250 kilograms, or 2,756 pounds, for each man, woman and child now inhabiting planet Earth. Moreover, the world’s cumulative amount of plastics is projected to nearly triple by midcentury to about 27 billion metric tons (Figure 1).

    Eat Plastics - With one in ten people in the world going hungry, food prices hitting record highs, and the worsening conditions of the environment and climate, it’s time for the world’s population of 8 billion to eat something that is available, abundant and inexpensive: plastics
    Source: Our World in Data.

    Eating plastics would solve the world’s hunger problem for hundreds of millions of people as well as offer numerous other advantages. Plastics could be used as a feed supplement for farm animals, especially for pigs but also for cattle, sheep, goats, chickens, etc., as well as a supplemental food for fish and other aquatic wildlife, many of which are already eating plastics.

    It’s highly unlikely that people will voluntarily agree to cutbacks in their current use of plastics. Eating plastics would also largely eliminate the costly, ineffective and bothersome process of asking people to recycle their plastics.

    Cost is the primary reason why less than a tenth of plastics produced annually are recycled. For the plastics industries the costs of recycling are far greater than the costs of producing new plastics.

    Instead of today’s problematic plastic throw-away culture, eating plastics would foster a “keep-consume” culture. Such a cultural transformation to keep-consume plastics would certainly be welcomed by people around the world.

    A keep-consume plastics culture would be environmentally sound, cost effective and economically sustainable. Rather than having more than 10 million metric tons of plastics dumped in the oceans annually, humans could simply eat their plastics in the comfort of their homes. Human and livestock consumption of plastics would keep the oceans clean and reduce pollution. Plastics that accidently enter the oceans can be consumed by fish and other wildlife.

    In 2021 about one third of the global plastic materials was produced by China. It was then followed by North America, the rest of Asia and Europe 18, 17 and 15 percent, respectively. Substantially lower in the production of plastics with each less than 10 percent were the rest of the regions (Figure 2).

    Eat Plastics - With one in ten people in the world going hungry, food prices hitting record highs, and the worsening conditions of the environment and climate, it’s time for the world’s population of 8 billion to eat something that is available, abundant and inexpensive: plastics
    Source: Statista.

    Attempting to eliminate the production of plastics is clearly impractical and costly. The elimination or even the serious reduction in the production of plastics would undermine national economies, increase unemployment, reduce wages, raise poverty rates and fuel political instability. Consequently, eating plastics at every meal should be promoted in schools, workplaces, places of worship, recreation facilities, retirement centers, homes, etc.

    Most plastics are generally not biodegradable. They will not spoil and are not perishable like traditional foods and therefore have a long shelf life, taking anywhere from 20 to 500 years to breakdown, if at all.

    Plastics breakdown depends on the material’s composition, structure and environmental factors, such as exposure to sunlight. In the oceans, for example, plastics straws and plastic water bottles are estimated to breakdown in 200 and 450 years, respectively.

    The plastics remaining in the environment often break down into microplastics, which are small pieces of plastics including fibers, microbeads, fragments, nurdles, and foam. Those microplastics are already found in water, food and some animals. Given their diversity of shape, texture and color, microplastics can be readily consumed by men, women and even older children, but in small amounts initially.

    Plastics could enhance traditional dishes, such as chicken plastic masala, microplastics pizza, kung plastic pao chicken, plastic burger, croque plastic-monsieur and shepherds’ plastic pie. Microplastics could also be used as a spice, food additive or culinary enrichment to enhance daily meals, similar to the current practice of adding salt and pepper to meals.

    Without knowing it, people are already consuming microplastics. The largest source of microplastics in people’s diet is drinking water. Microplastics can also be found in vegetables, fruits, meats, fish, tea, beer, wine, etc.

    Some have estimated that on average a person might be consuming 5 grams of microplastics per week, amounting to approximately 18 kilograms, or 40 pounds, of plastic over a lifetime. Human autopsies have also found microplastics in major human organs, such as lungs, liver, spleen, and kidney tissue.

    On the plus side, people eating plastics reduces the feeling of hunger, cuts down on calories and helps with weight loss. Also, it fills the stomach of birds, fish and other small animals.

    Human consumption of plastics also addresses concerns of countries regarding the problems resulting from plastics. Rather than banning the use of plastic bags for bagging groceries, governments could encourage their citizens to eat their plastic bags at their daily meals.

    People eating plastics also helps to eliminate the plastics trash problem, reduces pollution in waterways, landfills and atmosphere, and contributes to the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals adopted by United Nations Member States. Eating plastics will also improve the world’s environment, atmosphere and wildlife, reduce the consumption of unhealthy junk food and help reduce inflation due to the rising costs of traditional foods (Table 1).

    Eat Plastics - With one in ten people in the world going hungry, food prices hitting record highs, and the worsening conditions of the environment and climate, it’s time for the world’s population of 8 billion to eat something that is available, abundant and inexpensive: plastics
    Source: Author’s compilation.

    As is case with innovation, it will take some time for people to become accustomed to eating plastics. This will especially be the case among older cohorts of people who are less willing than younger cohorts to accept innovation, new technologies and new cultural behavior.

    Admittedly, some concerns have been expressed by health professionals and scientists about eating of plastics, given that they are being made mostly from fossil fuels, i.e., oil and natural gas, through a process that is energy intensive and emits greenhouse gases. Those health concerns include endocrine disrupting chemicals, which are linked to infertility, obesity, diabetes, prostate or breast cancer, and cognitive impairment and neurodevelopmental disorders.

    However, such health concerns and exaggerated warnings are limited to scientific research and not from the producers of plastics. The technical research findings are understood largely by scientists, but mainstream media as usual has publicized the warnings about eating plastics.

    People’s bodies will evolve to the consumption of plastics. That evolutionary process will be similar to people eating processed junk foods. But like junk foods, infants should not consume microplastics and young children should limit their consumption.

    Eating plastics will require more mindful chewing of most plastics. Some may be tempted to simply swallow plastics. However, except for microplastics, it is not recommended for proper digestion.

    Those with existing health problems may encounter reactions to eating plastics. Such reactions can be addressed by eating small amounts of plastics initially and drinking plenty of fluids, especially alcoholic beverages. Those fluids will aid in digestion and permit the body’s vital organs to evolve.

    In sum, to address widespread hunger in the world, the high and rising costs of food, and the consequences of plastics on the environment, flora, fauna and climate, the solution is clear. Let’s eat plastics!

    Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Expanding E-bus Networks in Latin America Can Further Decarbonization Goals

    Expanding E-bus Networks in Latin America Can Further Decarbonization Goals

    [ad_1]

    An electric bus in downtown Montevideo, Uruguay. Credit: Inés Acosta/IPS
    • Opinion by Brianne Watts (new york)
    • Inter Press Service

    NEW YORK, Feb 10 (IPS) – Latin America’s (LATAM) transportation sector produces the largest share of regional emissions and is a large source of air pollution, making transforming transportation technology systems key to energy transition and decarbonization. In particular, electrifying public transportation systems across the region through a transition to electric bus (e-bus) fleets will reduce fossil fuel demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

    While there are obstacles in the transition to e-buses, Latin America is well-positioned to address these challenges and take the lead in switching to zero-emissions public transit through innovative financing models, incentives, and public policy, which will contribute to reducing emissions while supporting more sustainable economic growth. Several countries and cities in Latin America are already leaders on this front and the region has innate advantages to expanding these networks.

    Why Latin America Is Uniquely Poised to Benefit from Public Transit Electrification

    Transforming transportation in LATAM will reduce fossil fuel use, contributing to decarbonization in the region. Unlike most of the world, the majority of Latin America’s electricity comes from renewable energy, while more than 95% of the energy used in its transport sector comes from oil and petroleum products.

    The LATAM transport sector accounts for 15% of the region’s GHG emissions and was responsible for 8% of total global emissions in 2019. Furthermore, a 2018 UN report estimated that air pollution causes 64,000 premature deaths in the region every year, a figure it predicts could increase by 75% by 2050. These deaths were mainly caused by transportation emissions.

    Recognizing the need to change, governments across the region have taken steps to clean up the transportation sector. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 27 of the region’s countries prioritized transport, though only a handful specified renewables-based transport.

    There has been a lot of focus on private electric vehicles (EVs) and raising emissions standards, but electrifying municipal bus fleets allows for less extensive infrastructure development—focusing charging infrastructure in centralized bus depots—and does not rely on consumer demand for cleaner private vehicles.

    Latin America already claims the second highest e-bus fleet globally, with estimates of over 3,700 units across at least 10 countries, up from 2,000 e-buses in operation in 2020. While China dominates the electric bus market, several qualities unique to Latin America offer opportunities to expand its fleet.

    The region is home to a highly urban population, with 80% of residents living in cities—a figure that is on the rise. These demographics have contributed to LATAM boasting the highest global per capita public transportation use.

    Global bus rapid transit system data shows that systems in Latin America carry, on average, 600% more passengers per day than European systems and nearly twice the number of Asian systems.

    LATAM also has a history of embracing transit innovation. One report pointed to the early adoption of electric trams, cable cars to serve dense, hard to reach settlements, propane taxis, and other new transportation technology. The region has “relatively sophisticated transit authorities” and some of the developing world’s best transit systems, suggesting data collected from existing networks “can support the efficient deployment of new electric buses.”

    Cities Leading the Transition

    The significant portion of emissions and pollution generated by transport is strong motivation for national and municipal governments in Latin America to invest heavily in electric buses. Colombia and Chile have committed to making 100% of public transportation system vehicle purchases zero emission by 2035. The capitals of these countries are emerging as leaders in the race to electrify city buses.

    Bogotá has a fleet of nearly 1,500 e-buses, the largest outside of China, accounting for over 16% of the city’s entire public bus fleet. Santiago has the second largest e-bus fleet in LATAM. One 2019 analysis forecast that by 2025, over 5,000 electric buses will be delivered to Latin American cities annually.

    The region is receiving support from international partnerships to expand electric bus networks. In 2019, the Zero Emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) Partnership was launched, financed by P4G – Partnering for Green Growth and the Global Goals 2030, and co-led by C40 and the International Council on Clean Transportation.

    ZEBRA’s mission is to work with cities in the region to secure political commitments, develop zero-emission bus fleet deployment strategies and business models, and secure financing for bus projects in order to “accelerate the deployment of zero-emission buses in major Latin American cities.”

    Falling Costs, Innovative Financing, and International Support Can Drive Investment

    One of the biggest obstacles to scaling up the deployment of e-buses is the high up-front costs of units. As U.S. interest rates continue to rise and the U.S. dollar appreciates, public financing of the units will pose a risk in countries that already have large amounts of U.S. dollar-denominated debt. However, lifetime costs of units are dropping and potential economic slowdowns could increase demand for public transport, while innovative financing solutions can enable LATAM countries to transform their bus systems.

    E-buses are quickly becoming a cost-effective alternative to diesel counterparts, as acquisition, operation, and maintenance costs drop, and fossil fuel prices rise. A 2021 report estimated e-buses and associated charging infrastructure have up to two- to three-times, higher up-front costs compared to diesel alternatives. However, lower-cost battery technology, efficiency improvements, and low maintenance costs have already caused the purchase price to plunge.

    One estimate found that “‘total cost of ownership’ over a vehicle’s lifetime should soon approach parity with internal combustion engine alternatives.” Santiago’s electric buses cost about one-fourth the cost per kilometer to operate compared to diesel buses. The falling costs and emission reduction benefits these buses bring make them economically advantageous in the long run.

    In the meantime, cities throughout the region are using innovative models and public-private financing arrangements to expand e-buses fleets. One popular method is “unbundling” ownership and operation.

    This model allows private firms to buy, own, and maintain the fleets and related equipment, while municipalities sign long-term contracts to operate the fleets. The advantage of this model is that it allows each party to perform the task for which it has a comparative advantage, allowing the owners to collateralize their assets and local governments to avoid extensive financing risks and the accumulation of debt. ZEBRA is financing this model of e-bus projects and related infrastructure throughout the region through a commitment of more than $1 billion.

    Policies to Promote Change

    To spur the inclusion of e-buses in Latin America’s energy transition, local and national governments need to develop and implement cross-cutting policies that incentivize this technology and enable it to thrive.

    First, governments should codify goals of switching to 100% zero-emission bus fleets, following the examples of Chile and Colombia. These goals should include clear and ambitious target dates for purchasing and operating e-buses and for infrastructure improvements needed to support this transition.

    Second, it is important to specify zero-emission technology (such as electric buses) in these goals, as ambiguous language like “low carbon” and “clean transport” creates loopholes allowing for fuel-efficient combustion technology. Transportation authorities also need to partner with utilities to expand charging infrastructure, ensure the grid can handle the additional load, and ensure that clean sources of electricity are used to charge the e-buses.

    At the same time, governments should craft financial incentives for private bus owners and operators to switch to electric buses. The current average age of both public and private transport fleets in many LATAM countries is relatively low, increasing the risk of stranded assets. This cost, along with the upfront costs of a new electric bus, could inhibit the switch away from combustion-engine buses.

    When São Paulo adopted a law to make all privately owned buses (which comprise the city’s entire bus fleet) zero-emission by 2037, many operators complained that they did not have the financial and technical resources needed to comply. They feared raising fares to pay for electric buses could hurt ridership.

    Targeted subsidies, tax incentives, and insurance schemes that reduce the costs and risk of replacing higher emitting buses with e-buses will not only speed up the transition and contribute to meeting NDC targets, but will also signal the governments’ commitment to this technology.

    New Opportunities for Growth

    Because LATAM already leads in renewable energy use for electricity generation, transportation sector electrification is key to the energy transition. In a region known for extensive bus use, a switch to e-buses in public transportation will signal that LATAM governments are committed to furthering meaningful decarbonization.

    LATAM is already home to several bus-manufacturing powerhouses, including Mexico and Brazil. Chile and Argentina are home to large lithium reserves. The region has the skills and resources to develop production capacity in electric bus manufacturing and battery manufacturing, which could create green jobs, support technological development, and strengthen regional value chains.

    While cost and financing present challenges, targeted policies, public-private financing, and financial incentives can turn Latin America into a leader in public transportation electrification, reduce fossil fuel use, and present opportunities for sustainable economic development.

    Brianne Watts is a Foreign Service Officer at the U.S. Department of State, currently pursuing a Master of Public Administration in Economic Policy Management at Columbia University.

    The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Government.

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Eswatini: Democracy a Matter of Life and Death

    Eswatini: Democracy a Matter of Life and Death

    [ad_1]

    • Opinion by Andrew Firmin (london)
    • Inter Press Service

    LONDON, Feb 10 (IPS) – Thulani Maseko knew speaking out in Eswatini was a risky business. An activist and well-known human rights lawyer, he’d previously spent 14 months in jail for criticising the country’s lack of judicial independence. Now he’s dead, shot in his home by unknown assailants.

    Among those Maseko litigated against was the country’s tyrannical ruler, King Mswati III. Mswati, in power since 1986, is Africa’s last remaining absolute monarch. In 2018, in one indication of his unchecked power, he changed the country’s name to Eswatini from Swaziland, unilaterally and without warning. Maseko was planning to take Mswati to court to challenge the renaming on constitutional grounds.

    Maseko was chair of the Multi-Party Forum, a network bringing together civil society groups, political parties, businesses and others to urge a peaceful transition to multiparty democracy. He was also the lawyer of two members of parliament – Bacede Mabuza and Mthandeni Dube – arrested and detained in 2021 on terrorism charges for calling for constitutional democracy.

    It isn’t yet clear why Maseko was killed or whether those who did the deed were acting on their own initiative or following someone else’s orders. But for many in the country’s democracy movement, it’s more than a little suspicious that just before the killing Mswati is reported to have said the state would ‘deal with’ people calling for democratic reforms. Maseko had reportedly received death threats.

    Civil society is calling for Maseko’s killing to be properly investigated. Those carrying out the investigation should be independent and ensure whoever is behind it is held to account, however high the trail goes. But there seems little hope of that.

    Blood on the king’s hands

    If Maseko’s killing was a reaction to his human rights work, it’s an extreme form of reprisal, but it’s not the only recent mysterious death. In May 2021, law student Thabani Nkomonye disappeared. When his body was discovered a few days later, it bore signs of torture. The police did little to investigate; many believed they were responsible for the killing.

    When news of Nkomonye’s killing broke, students protested to demand justice – and multiparty democracy, because only under democracy can state institutions be held accountable. This was the trigger for months of protests that swept Eswatini in 2021.

    As protests went on some people started to target businesses owned by the monarchy. When protesters started fires, the state’s response was lethal. Dozens were killed and around a thousand injured as security forces fired indiscriminately at protesters, in a shoot-to-kill policy evidently ordered by Mswati. Even if Mswati doesn’t turn out to have Maseko’s blood on his hands, there are plenty of other killings he’s likely responsible for.

    Part of a pattern?

    Amid continued repression, people have little hope that the killing of Maseko will be the last, and if anything the fear is that it could mark an escalation. If the state is behind the attack, it suggests an increased boldness to its repression: it may be targeting high-profile figures in confident expectation of impunity.

    There are other indications this may be the case: Penuel and Xolile Malinga of the People’s United Democratic Movement, the major political party, have twice had their home fired upon in the last few months. In December 2022, human rights lawyer Maxwell Nkambule survived an apparent assassination attempt when his car was fired on.

    The state signalled it had more interest in repression than investigating Maseko’s killing when two protesters were shot in a march demanding justice. The danger is of growing lawlessness and further waves of state lethality in response to any protest violence.

    Genuine dialogue needed

    What the democracy movement is asking for is commonplace elsewhere: the right for people to have a say in the decisions that affect their lives. People want to pick the prime minister themselves, instead of the king doing it. They want to be able to vote for political parties, which are banned from elections. They want the king to be subject to the law, which requires a constitutional rather than absolute monarchy. And they want an economy that works for everyone: currently Mswati lives a life of rockstar luxury, funded through his family’s direct control of key state assets, while most people live in dire poverty.

    An agreement to hold a national dialogue – struck with South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) following the 2021 protests – hasn’t been honoured. Even if it happened, many doubt such dialogue would be genuine.

    South Africa has a special responsibility to urge democracy, as the country that’s home to Eswatini’s many civil society and political exiles. It’s time for South Africa and SADC to stand up to Mswati, demand genuine accountability over the killing of Maseko and push harder for real dialogue, constitutional reform and a path towards democracy.

    Andrew Firmin is CIVICUS Editor-in-Chief, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.


    Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • The Opioid Addiction Crisis & U.S. National Security

    The Opioid Addiction Crisis & U.S. National Security

    [ad_1]

    • Opinion by Purnaka de Silva, Geetika Chandwani (new york)
    • Inter Press Service

    NEW YORK, Feb 10 (IPS) – The opioid addiction crisis in the United States is an acute public health emergency and a profound threat to national security – which is caused by the over-prescription, misuse, illegal production, and criminal trafficking and sale of opioid pharmaceutical drugs to Americans. It is estimated that over 130 people die every day from opioid overdoses in the U.S.

    The crisis has been linked to the dramatic increase in the prescription of opioid pain relievers since the late 1990s, as well as the rise of the use of heroin and powerful, highly-addictive synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl.

    The opioid addiction crisis has had a horrific impact at the individual, family, and community levels across the country, as well as on the U.S. healthcare system at the federal, state, and local level.

    Opioid addiction in the U.S. has become a prolonged epidemic, threatening public health, economic output, and national security. Hundreds of people die every week from opioid-related overdoses, a toll that spiked across the country during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    As communities, healthcare providers, and government agencies join forces in combating the epidemic of opioid overdose deaths and solving the opioid addiction crisis, it is not enough to focus all available resources on treating people already addicted to opioids.

    The million-dollar question is how to prevent people that do not have opioid addiction disorders, from becoming addicted. In this equation, it is crucial to examine pain and its relationship with deficiencies for example as in the case of Vitamin D deficiency and its relationship to musculoskeletal health, and thereby address specific factors that may trigger the need for long-term opioid use.

    Opioids are recognized as a legitimate medical therapy for selected patients with severe, chronic pain that does not respond to other treatments. However, there can be unintended consequences. According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports, nearly 500,000 people died from an overdose involving any type of opioid, including prescription and illicit opioids, from 1999-2019.

    These overdose deaths are a direct cause of significant damage to the U.S. economy from lost spending, wages, and productivity, and indirectly from lower employment and other trickle-down effects.

    Once seen as mainly affecting white people of Caucasian descent, the opioid crisis disproportionately harms people of color now. Unequally distributed insurance coverage, limited access to medical services, and serious racial disparities exist in the U.S. healthcare system.

    According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, African American and Hispanic and Latino American people receive worse pain care. And alarmingly, the number and proportion of Americans 65-years and older with Substance Use Disorders (SUDs) are increasing.

    Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs) are the leading source of pain and disability globally but are especially prevalent in industrialized nations, including the United States. Pain associated with MSDs is prevalent among construction workers, which is followed by increased prescription opioid use.

    Musculoskeletal injuries are also a severe problem in sports medicine. Chronic pain is more common among combat veterans than non-veterans and their injuries are often more catastrophic. According to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, military veterans suffer long years of musculoskeletal injury-related limitations.

    MSDs, such as degenerative spine, arthritic conditions, and osteoporosis, are the most common causes of chronic pain among the elderly. Approximately 10 million Americans have osteoporosis, and another 44 million have low bone density, placing them at increased risk. By 2050, the incidence of hip fracture is expected to increase by 240% and 310% in women and men, respectively.

    Vitamin D affects muscle strength, muscle size and neuromuscular performance. Since Vitamin D is a crucial nutrient for bone health, it is critical to question whether Vitamin D deficiency contributes to chronic pain-related opioid addiction. Vitamin D deficiency is commonly seen in patients with chronic pain, and an even higher percentage of patients with musculoskeletal pain are found to be Vitamin D deficient.

    The latest study by Massachusetts General Hospital proves that Vitamin D deficiency enormously exaggerates the craving for opioids, potentially increasing the risk of dependence and addiction. Vitamin D deficiency occurs when the body does not get enough Vitamin D from sunlight or diet.

    About 42% of the U.S. population is Vitamin D deficient, with some people even having higher deficiency levels. This includes premenopausal women, those with poor nutritional habits, people over 65, and individuals who avoid even minimal sun exposure.

    There are also concerns related to Vitamin D deficiency due to regular sunscreen usage. And many youngsters spend more time on computers, mobile phones and video games, and lack a regular exercise regime. National data shows that most American children over the age of eight do not get enough calcium, a deficiency that increases their risk of developing osteoporosis in adulthood.

    Vitamin D is naturally present in some foods and available as a dietary supplement. Regardless of fortification, the amount of Vitamin D a person gets from food depends on the person’s choice of food or drinks. The skin’s ability to produce Vitamin D decreases with age. At over 65 years of age, a person generates only one-fourth as much Vitamin D compared to when they were in their 20s.

    And people with darker skin typically have lower Vitamin D levels than lighter-skinned individuals. On average, African Americans have about half as much Vitamin D in their blood compared to white Americans of Caucasian descent. While vitamin supplements have surged in popularity, some people are overdoing it, which can be toxic.

    The American case study can present a learning model on a global scale, since the opioid crisis in the U.S. displays an extraordinary heterogeneity in society, with large pockets of poverty, and the absence of comprehensive health care for every citizen.

    According to the World Health Organization (WHO), an estimated 40 million people need palliative care each year and 78% live in middle and low-income countries. Regularized pain treatment is limited or non-existent in most parts of the world. Such suffering can be alleviated with access to pain relief treatment. Poorly managed pain and inadequate palliative therapy can lead people to turn to illicitly obtained prescriptions or street drugs.

    Consumer appetite is what drives demand. MSDs are the most common cause of disability worldwide, and according to the World Health Organization (WHO), approximately 1.71 billion people have musculoskeletal conditions globally.

    Changes in worldwide populations, global migration patterns, increase in communicable and non-communicable diseases, and environments where people tend to live and work indoors, impact upon nutrition and Vitamin D levels, with adverse knock-on effects on musculoskeletal health.

    As populations age, chronic pain and diseases tend to increase, along with the need for pain relief medications. Vitamin D is crucial for bone health, a fact that probably half the world’s population may understand but does not consider such information to be crucial. A relatively simple step, such as paying attention to Vitamin D deficiency screening and treatment can lead to improved health, which in turn may decrease the need for and abuse of opioids.

    For that reason alone, there should be a compulsory policy implemented nationwide in the U.S. for everyone to be screened for Vitamin D deficiency, starting from 10-years-old (middle school) to 60-years to identify and treat at-risk populations.

    The opioid addiction crisis in the U.S. is undoubtedly a national security emergency. It has resulted in a manifold increase in opioid-related deaths, decline in national public safety, and given rise to transcontinental organized criminal enterprises that are involved in the production and trafficking of illegal prescription drugs, such as fentanyl.

    The current opioid addiction epidemic has also had a profound economic impact, costing the U.S. economy an estimated $78.5 billion in 2015. The precise total financial burden of the opioid addiction crisis to the U.S. economy is not easy to quantify.

    Some estimates indicate that the total economic costs of the opioid addiction crisis in the U.S. could be as high as $504 billion per annum – i.e., including costs associated with healthcare provision, lost productivity, addiction treatment, criminal justice funding, and other associated expenditures.

    The opioid addiction crisis has created the perfect storm – i.e., public health emergency and a significant national security threat – where transnational drug cartels and associated national criminal organizations are profiteering from the situation, boosting their profits, and expanding and deepening their illegal operations and networks.

    The U.S. government’s measures to rise to this challenge and combat the opioid addiction crisis, include increased resources and powers for law enforcement investigation and interdiction, as well as access to treatment, funding for research, public health awareness initiatives, education etc., all part and parcel of a national security strategy aimed at protecting the American public.

    The U.S. government has also taken steps to strengthen border security, and combat the trafficking of opioids, including from China where the most amount of fentanyl is manufactured and smuggled into America. However, these measures alone are not enough to address the opioid addiction crisis in the U.S.

    The opioid crisis is a complex dilemma that requires wide-ranging, concerted national health and security policies, strategies, and tactics – i.e., that must focus on prevention, treatment, public awareness, and education, together with more effective and robust law enforcement with teeth.

    It requires a coordinated multistakeholder effort involving federal, state, and local governments working together with law enforcement, public health providers, the private sector, and not-for profit organizations, faith-based nongovernmental organizations and religious orders that are engaged in generating public health awareness.

    The U.S. government and lawmakers on Capitol Hill must continue to take bipartisan steps to address the opioid addiction crisis in America and fully ensure that the national security of the United States is sacrosanct and not compromised in any way, shape, or form.

    Geetika Chandwani recently graduated with a Master’s in International Relations and Diplomacy and is an alumnus of the School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University. She works as Program Officer at Religions for Peace. Dr. Purnaka L. de Silva is Faculty and University Adjunct Professor of the Year 2022 at the School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University.

    IPS UN Bureau


    Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Mental Health Must Be Addressed in Medical Facilities and in Communities

    Mental Health Must Be Addressed in Medical Facilities and in Communities

    [ad_1]

    It is imperative to identify symptoms when they are present and provide timely care. Asking routine questions at primary care visits is an effective way to achieve this. Credit: Unsplash /Melanie Wasser.
    • Opinion by Ifeanyi Nsofor (abuja)
    • Inter Press Service

    ABUJA, Feb 09 (IPS) – Patients who visit public clinics in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, are asked mental health questions to detect signs of stress and depression early. The process starts with a basic checklist, with patients referred to a nurse, doctor, or specialist. Asking these questions at primary care not only can identify issues early on, but it also helps decrease the stigma often associated with mental health while maintaining anonymity.

    This initiative is praiseworthy and should be replicated in all health facilities – both public and private. To ensure continuum of care, mental health services should also be provided in communities.

    Globally, there are millions of unmet needs for mental health care. Globally, more than 970 million people are living with a mental disorder, with anxiety and depressive disorders the most common. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, more than 50% of Americans will be diagnosed with a mental disorder at some point in their lifetime.

    Without a doubt mental health is important. However, just like physical health, it fluctuates. In an episode of my public health advocacy project, ‘Public Health for Everyone’, Victor Ugo – global mental health advocate and founder of Nigeria’s leading mental health not-for-profit, Mentally Aware Initiative said, “mental health is a continuum – sometimes we experience good mental health and other times, bad mental health”.

    Therefore, it is imperative to identify symptoms when they are present and provide timely care. Asking routine questions at primary care visits is an effective way to achieve this.

    Sadly, poor perception and stigma associated with mental health vary. For instance, the 2018 mental health in Nigeria survey, which I co-led, revealed shocking results. More than 5,300 respondents were interviewed in all 774 local councils across the country.

    Seventy percent of Nigerians believe mental health disease is, “When someone starts running around naked”; and 54% said “possession by evil spirits as a cause of mental health disease”.

    Furthermore, 18% said they will take someone with mental health disease to a prayer house for deliverance; traditional medicine healer (8%); locking up the person (4%) and beating the disease out of the person (2%). These shocking results underpin how difficult it can be to change behaviors to improve mental health.

    As mental health is a continuum, so should mental health care. It is important to provide care not just at medical facilities but at community levels too. Community members may not be aware that primary care facilities provide mental health care but people they know in the community reach out to them.

    Other reasons that community efforts are important include the reality that in many regions, health facilities may be far away from where people live or there may be unattainable costs associated with accessing care at health facilities. These are two examples of successful community-based mental health care services.

    First is the Fellowship Bench, which began in Zimbabwe and was founded by Psychiatrist and Aspen Institute Senior New Voices Fellow Dixon Chibanda. Dixon lost a 26 year old patient to suicide because her family could not afford the $15 bus fare from her village to his clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe, for a follow-up visit.

    It was a turning point for him, and this sad experience birthed The Friendship Bench. The Fellowship Bench deploys grandmothers, an ever-present human resource in communities, to provide mental healthcare. Grandmothers are trained on evidence-based talk therapy delivered on a park bench. In 2006, the first group of grandmothers went to work.

    Chibanda believes that depression is treatable and suicide preventable. However, in low- and middle-income countries, there are not enough psychiatrists. Consequently, 90% of those needing mental health care do not get it, he said in his TED Talk. Therefore, innovative solutions such as The Friendship Bench are necessary to bridge the mental health care gap by providing care right in communities where people live.

    Another effort is Mentally Aware Nigeria Initiative (MANI). It provides virtual mental health care to a large community by disseminating mental health information to its more than 180,000 followers on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok and LinkedIn.

    MANI reaches more than 3 million people (mostly young people) monthly through these social media platforms. MANI’s services are needed in a country of more than 200 million people with less than 250 psychiatrists. This translates to one psychiatrist servicing one million Nigerians. MANI provided mental health care during Nigeria’s 2020 EndSARS campaign against police brutality. Young people protested police brutality but were still brutalized and killed during the protest. Many people needed mental health care and MANI was there to provide it by offering calls.

    One of the major challenges to providing mental health is the cost. More funding is required to support and scale more community-based mental health interventions. In 2022, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced nearly $35 million in funding opportunities to strengthen and expand community mental health services and suicide prevention programs for America’s children and young adults.

    In Europe, there is a €3,355,000 grant for large-scale implementation of community-based mental health care for people with severe and enduring mental ill health. In Nigeria, the TY Danjuma Foundation recently awarded a grant to Jela’s Development Initiatives to train 200 teachers about basic mental healthcare and create awareness for effective curriculum delivery.

    Jela’s Development Initiatives also hosts ‘unburden’ – a group therapy session supervised by a mental health expert, which enables participants to speak about issues affecting their mental health within a safe and confidential space. These kinds of funds are important and need to continue regularly.

    Providing mental health services at primary care and community levels can help millions of people. Supporting these efforts is the equitable thing to do.

    Dr. Ifeanyi M. Nsofor, MBBS, MCommH (Liverpool) is Senior New Voices Fellow at the Aspen Institute, Senior Atlantic Fellow for Health Equity at George Washington University, 2006 Ford Foundation International Fellow

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Making the Energy Transition a Reality in the Pacific

    Making the Energy Transition a Reality in the Pacific

    [ad_1]

    Figure 1: Proportion of population with access to clean cooking fuels and technologies (Data source: World Health Organization, via the Asia Pacific Energy Portal. Data was unavailable for New Caledonia, Northern Mariana Is., American Samoa, French Polynesia and Guam.)
    • Opinion by David Ferrari – Sudip Ranjan Basu – Kimberly Roseberry (bangkok, thailand)
    • Inter Press Service

    BANGKOK, Thailand, Feb 09 (IPS) – The last three years have seen the Pacific impacted negatively due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The tourism industry, a key source of national revenue and jobs creation, received a severe blow due to closure of borders and reduced travel.

    In April 2020, a major cyclone caused widespread destruction in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga. In early 2022, a volcanic eruption in Tonga further caused significant damage to domestic physical infrastructure.

    Adding to these existing pressures, the food, fuel and finance crises have had a crippling impact on national economies throughout the Pacific. The vulnerabilities to both manmade and natural disasters are all but obvious. There is a need for an acceleration of transformative energy policy actions and ambitions.

    Growing costs of fuel imports

    A glance at the data shows that most Pacific countries – particularly the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) – remain highly dependent on imported petroleum fuels and are expected to do so for many years.

    Outside of Australia and New Zealand, oil makes up about 80 per cent of the Pacific’s total energy supply, of which 52 per cent is used for transport, 37 per cent for electricity generation and 12 per cent for other applications such as process heating. Renewable energy accounts for only 17 per cent of the total energy supply.

    Fuel imports cost the region US$6 billion annually, or around 5 to 15 per cent of GDP for each economy. This is an enormous economic burden. With its vast natural resources, a history and culture of independence and subsistence together with its low energy intensity, the Pacific subregion offers great advantages for energy transition leadership. So, there are solutions to alleviate this cost.

    ESCAP’s new report – Pacific Perspectives 2022: Accelerating Climate Action – makes the case for a rapid transition of the Pacific’s energy sector away from fossil fuel imports and to increase access to modern energy services to deliver Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) in harmony with global climate goals.

    This strengthens the case for alleviating reliance on imported fossil fuels. A move to locally generated renewable energy sources is supported by both the economic gains and the energy security benefits.

    Advancing the implementation of SDG 7

    It is widely recognized that the Pacific is not on track to deliver universal access to clean cooking fuels and technology by 2030. In fact, this target may present one of the largest hurdles to achieving SDG 7.

    However, experts have recognized that energy access is best achieved through utilization of solar energy, and for many of those who remain without electricity across the Pacific, the best access solution will be the installation of stand-alone solar home systems.

    Experts now suggest moving beyond minimum levels of electricity access and employing metrics such as multi-tier frameworks or the “modern energy minimum” of consumption of at least 1,000 kWh per year as a better indicator of access.

    On the other hand, the rates of access to clean cooking fuels and technologies are amongst the lowest in the world as depicted in the chart below. In 2020, almost 10 million people across the Pacific lacked access to clean cooking, the bulk of whom (8.1 million people) were in Papua New Guinea. Furthermore, the rate of access to clean cooking in many countries is stagnating and, in some cases, even declining.

    Figure 1: Proportion of population with access to clean cooking fuels and technologies (Data source: World Health Organization, via the Asia Pacific Energy Portal. Data was unavailable for New Caledonia, Northern Mariana Is., American Samoa, French Polynesia and Guam.)

    Focusing on solution-oriented energy transition policies

    A wide range of policy interventions and intergovernmental mechanisms are available to support policymakers to address the issues of over-reliance on fossil fuels and the lack of access to modern energy.

    Firstly, renewable energy offers some very low hanging fruit. As imported petroleum accounts for about 72 per cent of the electricity supply and almost 100 per cent of transport energy; renewable sources can in many situations deliver clean energy at a lower cost. Developing infrastructure to support the shift to electric vehicles offers an opportunity to channel renewable energy into the transport sector.

    Secondly, the business case for energy efficiency is strong and brings with it the potential to reduce energy demand across multiple sectors. However, a large proportion of these opportunities remain unfulfilled.

    Finally, policymakers should collaborate through existing Pacific regional initiatives to support the scaling-up of local capability and capacity through coordinated training and knowledge transfer in the area of energy transition.

    Readers will find further details and policy recommendations in the report which is now available on the ESCAP website.

    By putting people at the center of policymaking, the ESCAP Commission remains the most agile and vibrant anchor to accelerate energy transition and promote regional solidarity.

    While it raises some complex questions, researchers have analysed the relationship between energy efficiency and demand response in various situations and determined that a high degree of complementarity is possible.

    David Ferrari is ESCAP Consultant, Sudip Ranjan Basu is Deputy Head and Senior Economic Affairs Officer and Kimberly Roseberry is Economic Affairs Officer

    IPS UN Bureau


    Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Work in Teams and Win the Race: A Hub-centered Strategy to Unleash Latin America’s Hydrogen Potential

    Work in Teams and Win the Race: A Hub-centered Strategy to Unleash Latin America’s Hydrogen Potential

    [ad_1]

    Hydrogen (H2) is an essential component of today’s energy and industrial systems. Credit: Shutterstock.
    • Opinion by Adalberto Castaneda Vidal (new york)
    • Inter Press Service

    The region is definitely taking this opportunity seriously. Over the past years, 11 countries in the region have published national hydrogen strategies. While this is an excellent policy signal, it might not be enough to win the race against other regions.

    For the region to realize its hydrogen exporting potential, I would argue that governments should move from broad national roadmaps to a more tailored and assertive hub development strategy.

    This is because the first movers are going to be the ones securing the offtake contracts and attracting investments. Following are some considerations and proposals to promote low-hydrogen hubs across the region to turn Latin America into a hydrogen success story.

    Hydrogen’s potential in Latin America

    Hydrogen (H2) is an essential component of today’s energy and industrial systems. Around 90 million tons (Mt) of H2 are produced and used yearly from natural gas and coal, emitting 9-23 kg CO2/kg H2.

    Chemicals, refineries, and steel production dominate today’s demand. Recent technological developments that allow the production of low-carbon hydrogen, position it as an alternative to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. In optimistic scenarios, hydrogen’s global demand can reach 115 Mt by 2030 and 528 Mt by 2050.

    The two most prominent low-carbon hydrogen types are:

    1. Green hydrogen, produced through water electrolysis paired with 100% renewable electricity, emits (0 CO2/kg H2).
    2. Blue hydrogen, produced from fossil fuels combined with carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCS), emits 1-3 kg CO2/ kg H2.

    The global hydrogen generation market was valued at USD 129.85 billion in 2021 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 6.4% from 2022 to 2030. New value chains will be needed to support this upscaling, including installing electrolyzer manufacturing plants in the region, which could create thousands of high-quality jobs.

    Latin America has a competitive advantage in the global hydrogen race as it has one of the most abundant endowments of solar and wind resources which are key for the production of green hydrogen.

    From 2014 to 2023, it was the most competitive region in terms of cost of production for both solar and wind. Furthermore, fossil fuel producers in the region can build on their existing knowledge and infrastructure to develop the value chains to capture and store CO2 from existing hydrogen production facilities.

    Reasons for a hydrogen-hub strategy for Latin America

    Some examples of planned hydrogen hubs already exist in Chile and Brazil. However, most hydrogen strategies in the region present broad national targets that lack demarcation and definition of particular incentives directed at the most strategic locations.

    A hub is a specific geographic location with resources that provide a competitive advantage for developing the hydrogen supply chain. This pathway could facilitate cooperation between public and private stakeholders and community engagement. It also may provide increased visibility to attract first movers.

    In this regard, hydrogen hubs are industrial areas with a competitive advantage in developing multiple projects for hydrogen production, distribution, utilization, and export. These hubs also have the presence of potential off-takers and existing infrastructure, which could be repurposed as the base for the hydrogen supply chain.

    Hydrogen hubs can also be defined in opposition to its alternative, which is developing stand-alone individual projects. The lack of success of CCS projects over the past decade provide a good example of how stand-alone models face significant technical and commercial risks that can lead to inconsistent policy support and investments.

    According to a study by the University of California, 80 percent of CCS projects ended in failure in the US. The projects failed due to a lack of off-takers, poor plant siting, and little support from local coalitions. These conditions impacted the project’s credibility of revenues and continued incentives support, which weakened their financial footing.

    It is crucial to learn from these examples to mitigate such risks, considering particular vulnerabilities in Latin America that are hard to control, such as higher capital costs and exchange rate risks.

    A hydrogen hub approach as a way to mitigate investments risks

    While hydrogen’s potential is huge in the energy transition, as of the end of 2021, investments were still $863 billion short. This is when competition with other regions comes into play. Latin American economies must show more ambitious strategies to generate new opportunities and attract that capital. The key to facilitating the allocation of capital is to mitigate risks with strong market signals and the development of key infrastructure.

    The benefits of a more focused hydrogen hubs promotion strategy can be divided into three parts: risk reductions, optimization of resource allocation, and securing policy and social support.

    First, hubs can help mitigate market risks by building redundancy of supply and demand. This prevents risks associated with allocating production and demand to individual projects. Furthermore, it can help distribute technical risks among more players for the construction of key infrastructure projects, such as transmission lines, pipelines, and geological storage.

    Second, according to experiences obtained from other clean energy projects, hubs are more efficient for optimizing planning and operation. Sole point-to-point projects run the risk of tailoring the technical decisions to the specific needs of one producer and one off-taker. However, with a hub approach, big market players cooperate and can involve smaller players, hence providing more opportunities to take advantage of economies of scale.

    Lastly, stakeholders need to generate community acceptance and ensure the support of local authorities. Research from the Inter-American Development Bank found that of 200 conflict-affected infrastructure projects, 36 were canceled, 162 faced delays, and 116 faced cost overruns.

    Therefore, community engagement cannot be regarded as a secondary requirement. A transparent hub proposal regarding its benefits, costs, and transition plans for communities and workers could help garner local support and, therefore, ensure consistent policy and social backing.

    While clean hydrogen hubs can help reduce risks, optimize resource allocation, and garner local support, key decisions must be made by several actors with different goals. This creates a risk of delaying the projects or failing to reach agreements to get to final investment decisions. In this regard, it is important to consider lessons learned from failures and successes in other regions.

    For instance, Europe is at the forefront of clean hydrogen development with a top-down and stakeholder-based approach. Lessons on the role of both national and local authorities in the pioneer hubs in Teesside and Rotterdam need to be taken into consideration.

    On the other hand, while the US started following the source-to-sink model for CCUS, in 2021, it experienced a shift towards developing hydrogen hubs, which were revitalized with the recently approved Inflation Reduction Act.

    Lessons from Chile’s hydrogen hub experience

    In Latin America, Chile provides an excellent example of how to map and market hydrogen hubs at a global scale. In 2020, the Ministry of Energy published its National Green Hydrogen Strategy, outlining national priorities and targets. While the national strategy provided insights for three regions, in 2022, the government published a new report that identified two potential hydrogen hubs in Antofagasta (Atacama desert) and Magallanes. Both regions have well-defined projects and are working to attract investments and secure long-term offtake contracts with international partners.

    To reproduce this strategy, the first hypothesis governments need to prove is the availability of natural resources, renewable resources for the development of green hydrogen or suitable geological storage, for blue hydrogen. The regions must ideally have the presence of relevant industries with experience in similar sectors, such as natural gas producers or renewable developers, as well as potential off-takers.

    Then the government needs to devise a plan for incentives, such as tax deductions, accelerated depreciation, and customs exemptions, among others. On top of that, policy accelerators need to be implemented to allow faster deployment of technology, such as specialized land tenders and fast-track licensing and permitting.

    Companies with international experience can work closely with local governments and federal agencies to ensure regulations do not hinder projects’ development.

    Parallelly, hub participants need to engage with local communities. Plans must be outlined diligently to conduct consultations and provide attractive compensation when needed. A poor implementation of this requirement can create a bad reputation for key stakeholders and the industry as a whole.

    These efforts can be conducted with international organizations and development banks, which could later provide initial investments to make projects bankable. Governments can also help further mitigate risks through grants, availability-based payments, and credit enhancement tools. Government support is also crucial to secure offtake contracts through signing Memorandums of Understanding or dedicating offices to deploy what some call “hydrogen diplomacy.”

    While some international and regional examples show the benefits of following a hub-centered strategy, Latin American countries must face crucial challenges to make it work. First, the recent leftist turn in the region may pose some uncertainties about market-aligned policies.

    With so much risk and lower margins, governments must prove they can attract and lay appropriate foundations for private investments.

    On the other hand, with the broader land requirements for hydrogen projects, companies must show their commitment to building local support and respecting communities and regulations. A clean energy business cannot be developed with old dirty tactics. The potential for the region is evident. Will Latin America be able to work in teams and win this race?

    Adalberto Castañeda Vidal is a second-year student of the Master of Public Administration at Columbia University – School of International and Public Affairs concentrating in Energy. He worked as a research assistant for the Center on Global and Energy Policy, where he participated in research projects about hydrogen and natural gas. He is originally from Tabasco, Mexico, and holds a bachelor’s in International Relations from the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Bhutans Civil Servants are Building a Digital Government System — Heres How

    Bhutans Civil Servants are Building a Digital Government System — Heres How

    [ad_1]

    • Opinion by Ian Richards, Amy Shelver (geneva, switzerland)
    • Inter Press Service

    GENEVA, Switzerland, Feb 07 (IPS) – New UNCTAD software does to digital government what IKEA did to furniture, allowing Bhutan’s government employees to create their own user-friendly services for citizens online.

    Tedious government procedures aren’t just a pain for users, they’re a bore for the civil servants who administer them. Sitting behind a counter and stamping forms isn’t exactly a dream job.

    This is where technology can help. In 2021, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bhutanese government launched the G2B digital government portal. It’s a ground-breaking piece of software that earned the country recognition as the fastest place in the world to start a new business.

    Entrepreneurs simply fill out a form on their mobile phones, and receive all registration documents at no cost, in less than a minute. In 2022, 5,500 Bhutanese, almost 1% of the population, used the service to register a business – 52% of them were women. It’s also a turning point for Bhutan’s public administration and for the world of digital government in general.

    The fastest business registration service on Earth wasn’t designed by consultants in India or California but by the very civil servants who had previously administered the time-consuming, paper-only process that required citizens to go from one government office queue to another.

    How did this happen?

    Keep it simple

    It’s all down to the low-code simplicity of the UNCTAD digital government platform, which after some basic training, Bhutan’s civil servants were able to customize themselves to create online services. The coverage of these services is now vast and includes permits to run bus services, authorizations to fly drones and leases for industrial parks.

    Over the next two years, the government plans to include all permits, authorizations and procedures related to the country’s economy in the platform. With time it could stretch across all government departments.

    “The goal of our technology is to ease friction,” says Frank Grozel, who heads UNCTAD’s digital government platform programme. “Everyone wins from having effective, uncomplicated technology at their fingertips. But this is especially important for civil servants, because it allows them to focus on why they do their job and not necessarily how they do it.”

    Better service delivery

    Each service is built from the bottom up. Government teams, including civil servants working on the procedure, developers and trainers came together to simplify existing steps, creating shortcuts that help accelerate service delivery.

    Employees are guided to understand the process from the user’s point of view, generating empathy and understanding of where the bottlenecks and frustrations can be.

    “Whole teams have started to see how the system could be changed, and why elements of the original process could have felt so painful to the end user,” said Bita Mortazavi, UNCTAD’s project manager for the Bhutan initiative.

    The impact on staff has been transformative. “We can now focus on service development and select simple services, with large impact, to change entire systems,” said Sonam Lhamo, project lead at Bhutan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs.

    Tshering Dorji, a developer, said it changed his perspective in software development. “My imagination improved a lot. I learned how to simplify without coding,” he said.

    Another developer, Pema Gyalpo, was pleasantly surprised.

    “We can further simplify even the simple things,” he said. “The experience of building this easier system was not about work, but how we’re going to work . I’ll be privileged to send ideas which will serve other countries.”

    Innovate first, regulate later

    Most Bhutanese businesses are small. About 95% of them are cottage enterprises. This reality drove the country’s government to seek ways to help the mountain nation’s micro-enterprises succeed in the quickest, simplest way.

    “Our approach is to innovate first, regulate later, so as to reduce entry barriers for new businesses, embrace innovation and allow creativity to flourish,” said Bhutan’s minister of economic affairs, Tengye Lyonpo.

    This ethos has delivered results for the country whose unconventional approaches are working for it and its citizens in novel ways.

    While Bhutan has been pioneering the flatpack approach to digital government, making services modular and easier to create, thanks to funding from the Netherlands, other countries are set to follow. Colombia, Estonia, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan, Togo and Tunisia will join the club this year.

    Countries already benefiting from the platform include Argentina, Benin, Burundi, Cameroon, Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Iraq, Lesotho and Mali.

    Amy Shelver is an expert on digitalization and the creative economy and Ian Richards is an economist at UNCTAD specializing in digital business environments.

    IPS UN Bureau


    Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Look for stocks to lose 30% from here, says strategist David Rosenberg. And don’t even think about turning bullish until 2024.

    Look for stocks to lose 30% from here, says strategist David Rosenberg. And don’t even think about turning bullish until 2024.

    [ad_1]

    David Rosenberg, the former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, has been saying for almost a year that the Fed means business and investors should take the U.S. central bank’s effort to fight inflation both seriously and literally.

    Rosenberg, now president of Toronto-based Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., expects investors will face more pain in financial markets in the months to come.

    “The recession’s just starting,” Rosenberg said in an interview with MarketWatch. “The market bottoms typically in the sixth or seventh inning of the recession, deep into the Fed easing cycle.” Investors can expect to endure more uncertainty leading up to the time — and it will come — when the Fed first pauses its current run of interest rate hikes and then begins to cut.

    Fortunately for investors, the Fed’s pause and perhaps even cuts will come in 2023, Rosenberg predicts. Unfortunately, he added, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.61%
    could drop 30% from its current level before that happens. Said Rosenberg: “You’re left with the S&P 500 bottoming out somewhere close to 2,900.”

    At that point, Rosenberg added, stocks will look attractive again. But that’s a story for 2024.

    In this recent interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Rosenberg offered a playbook for investors to follow this year and to prepare for a more bullish 2024. Meanwhile, he said, as they wait for the much-anticipated Fed pivot, investors should make their own pivot to defensive sectors of the financial markets — including bonds, gold and dividend-paying stocks.

    MarketWatch: So many people out there are expecting a recession. But stocks have performed well to start the year. Are investors and Wall Street out of touch?

    Rosenberg: Investor sentiment is out of line; the household sector is still enormously overweight equities. There is a disconnect between how investors feel about the outlook and how they’re actually positioned. They feel bearish but they’re still positioned bullishly, and that is a classic case of cognitive dissonance. We also have a situation where there is a lot of talk about recession and about how this is the most widely expected recession of all time, and yet the analyst community is still expecting corporate earnings growth to be positive in 2023.

    In a plain-vanilla recession, earnings go down 20%. We’ve never had a recession where earnings were up at all. The consensus is that we are going to see corporate earnings expand in 2023. So there’s another glaring anomaly. We are being told this is a widely expected recession, and yet it’s not reflected in earnings estimates – at least not yet.

    There’s nothing right now in my collection of metrics telling me that we’re anywhere close to a bottom. 2022 was the year where the Fed tightened policy aggressively and that showed up in the marketplace in a compression in the price-earnings multiple from roughly 22 to around 17. The story in 2022 was about what the rate hikes did to the market multiple; 2023 will be about what those rate hikes do to corporate earnings.

    “ You’re left with the S&P 500 bottoming out somewhere close to 2,900. ”

    When you’re attempting to be reasonable and come up with a sensible multiple for this market, given where the risk-free interest rate is now, and we can generously assume a roughly 15 price-earnings multiple. Then you slap that on a recession earning environment, and you’re left with the S&P 500 bottoming out somewhere close to 2900.

    The closer we get to that, the more I will be recommending allocations to the stock market. If I was saying 3200 before, there is a reasonable outcome that can lead you to something below 3000. At 3200 to tell you the truth I would plan on getting a little more positive.

    This is just pure mathematics. All the stock market is at any point is earnings multiplied by the multiple you want to apply to that earnings stream. That multiple is sensitive to interest rates. All we’ve seen is Act I — multiple compression. We haven’t yet seen the market multiple dip below the long-run mean, which is closer to 16. You’ve never had a bear market bottom with the multiple above the long-run average. That just doesn’t happen.

    David Rosenberg: ‘You want to be in defensive areas with strong balance sheets, earnings visibility, solid dividend yields and dividend payout ratios.’


    Rosenberg Research

    MarketWatch: The market wants a “Powell put” to rescue stocks, but may have to settle for a “Powell pause.” When the Fed finally pauses its rate hikes, is that a signal to turn bullish?

    Rosenberg: The stock market bottoms 70% of the way into a recession and 70% of the way into the easing cycle. What’s more important is that the Fed will pause, and then will pivot. That is going to be a 2023 story.

    The Fed will shift its views as circumstances change. The S&P 500 low will be south of 3000 and then it’s a matter of time. The Fed will pause, the markets will have a knee-jerk positive reaction you can trade. Then the Fed will start to cut interest rates, and that usually takes place six months after the pause. Then there will be a lot of giddiness in the market for a short time. When the market bottoms, it’s the mirror image of when it peaks. The market peaks when it starts to see the recession coming. The next bull market will start once investors begin to see the recovery.

    But the recession’s just starting. The market bottoms typically in the sixth or seventh inning of the recession, deep into the Fed easing cycle when the central bank has cut interest rates enough to push the yield curve back to a positive slope. That is many months away. We have to wait for the pause, the pivot, and for rate cuts to steepen the yield curve. That will be a late 2023, early 2024 story.

    MarketWatch: How concerned are you about corporate and household debt? Are there echoes of the 2008-09 Great Recession?

    Rosenberg: There’s not going to be a replay of 2008-09. It doesn’t mean there won’t be a major financial spasm. That always happens after a Fed tightening cycle. The excesses are exposed, and expunged. I look at it more as it could be a replay of what happened with nonbank financials in the 1980s, early 1990s, that engulfed the savings and loan industry. I am concerned about the banks in the sense that they have a tremendous amount of commercial real estate exposure on their balance sheets. I do think the banks will be compelled to bolster their loan-loss reserves, and that will come out of their earnings performance. That’s not the same as incurring capitalization problems, so I don’t see any major banks defaulting or being at risk of default.

    But I’m concerned about other pockets of the financial sector. The banks are actually less important to the overall credit market than they’ve been in the past. This is not a repeat of 2008-09 but we do have to focus on where the extreme leverage is centered.

    Read: The stock market is wishing and hoping the Fed will pivot — but the pain won’t end until investors panic

    It’s not necessarily in the banks this time; it is in other sources such as private equity, private debt, and they have yet to fully mark-to-market their assets. That’s an area of concern. The parts of the market that cater directly to the consumer, like credit cards, we’re already starting to see signs of stress in terms of the rise in 30-day late-payment rates. Early stage arrears are surfacing in credit cards, auto loans and even some elements of the mortgage market. The big risk to me is not so much the banks, but the nonbank financials that cater to credit cards, auto loans, and private equity and private debt.

    MarketWatch: Why should individuals care about trouble in private equity and private debt? That’s for the wealthy and the big institutions.

    Rosenberg: Unless private investment firms gate their assets, you’re going to end up getting a flood of redemptions and asset sales, and that affects all markets. Markets are intertwined. Redemptions and forced asset sales will affect market valuations in general. We’re seeing deflation in the equity market and now in a much more important market for individuals, which is residential real estate. One of the reasons why so many people have delayed their return to the labor market is they looked at their wealth, principally equities and real estate, and thought they could retire early based on this massive wealth creation that took place through 2020 and 2021.

    Now people are having to recalculate their ability to retire early and fund a comfortable retirement lifestyle. They will be forced back into the labor market. And the problem with a recession of course is that there are going to be fewer job openings, which means the unemployment rate is going to rise. The Fed is already telling us we’re going to 4.6%, which itself is a recession call; we’re going to blow through that number. All this plays out in the labor market not necessarily through job loss, but it’s going to force people to go back and look for a job. The unemployment rate goes up — that has a lag impact on nominal wages and that is going to be another factor that will curtail consumer spending, which is 70% of the economy.

    “ My strongest conviction is the 30-year Treasury bond. ”

    At some point, we’re going to have to have some sort of positive shock that will arrest the decline. The cycle is the cycle and what dominates the cycle are interest rates. At some point we get the recessionary pressures, inflation melts, the Fed will have successfully reset asset values to more normal levels, and we will be in a different monetary policy cycle by the second half of 2024 that will breathe life into the economy and we’ll be off to a recovery phase, which the market will start to discount later in 2023. Nothing here is permanent. It’s about interest rates, liquidity and the yield curve that has played out before.

    MarketWatch: Where do you advise investors to put their money now, and why?

    Rosenberg: My strongest conviction is the 30-year Treasury bond
    TMUBMUSD30Y,
    3.674%    .
    The Fed will cut rates and you’ll get the biggest decline in yields at the short end. But in terms of bond prices and the total return potential, it’s at the long end of the curve. Bond yields always go down in a recession. Inflation is going to fall more quickly than is generally anticipated. Recession and disinflation are powerful forces for the long end of the Treasury curve.

    As the Fed pauses and then pivots — and this Volcker-like tightening is not permanent — other central banks around the world are going to play catch up, and that is going to undercut the U.S. dollar
    DXY,
    +0.70%    .
    There are few better hedges against a U.S. dollar reversal than gold. On top of that, cryptocurrency has been exposed as being far too volatile to be part of any asset mix. It’s fun to trade, but crypto is not an investment. The crypto craze — fund flows directed to bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +0.35%
    and the like — drained the gold price by more than $200 an ounce.

    “ Buy companies that provide the goods and services that people need – not what they want. ”

    I’m bullish on gold
    GC00,
    +0.22%
    – physical gold — bullish on bonds, and within the stock market, under the proviso that we have a recession, you want to ensure you are invested in sectors with the lowest possible correlation to GDP growth.

    Invest in 2023 the same way you’re going to be living life — in a period of frugality. Buy companies that provide the goods and services that people need – not what they want. Consumer staples, not consumer cyclicals. Utilities. Health care. I look at Apple as a cyclical consumer products company, but Microsoft is a defensive growth technology company.

    You want to be buying essentials, staples, things you need. When I look at Microsoft
    MSFT,
    -0.61%    ,
    Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    -1.79%    ,
    Amazon
    AMZN,
    -1.17%    ,
    they are what I would consider to be defensive growth stocks and at some point this year, they will deserve to be garnering a very strong look for the next cycle.

    You also want to invest in areas with a secular growth tailwind. For example, military budgets are rising in every part of the world and that plays right into defense/aerospace stocks. Food security, whether it’s food producers, anything related to agriculture, is an area you ought to be invested in.

    You want to be in defensive areas with strong balance sheets, earnings visibility, solid dividend yields and dividend payout ratios. If you follow that you’ll do just fine. I just think you’ll do far better if you have a healthy allocation to long-term bonds and gold. Gold finished 2022 unchanged, in a year when flat was the new up.

    In terms of the relative weighting, that’s a personal choice but I would say to focus on defensive sectors with zero or low correlation to GDP, a laddered bond portfolio if you want to play it safe, or just the long bond, and physical gold. Also, the Dogs of the Dow fits the screening for strong balance sheets, strong dividend payout ratios and a nice starting yield. The Dogs outperformed in 2022, and 2023 will be much the same. That’s the strategy for 2023.

    More: ‘It’s payback time.’ U.S. stocks have been a no-brainer moneymaker for years — but those days are over.

    Plus: ‘The Nasdaq is our favorite short.’ This market strategist sees recession and a credit crunch slamming stocks in 2023.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Sleepwalking into Escalation

    Sleepwalking into Escalation

    [ad_1]

    Nuclear experts warn that ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons could have devastating death toll and destruction. This photo shows the war damage in Borodianka, Kyiv Oblast. Credit: Oleksandr Ratushniak / UNDP Ukraine
    • Opinion by Helmut W. Ganser (hamburg, germany)
    • Inter Press Service

    HAMBURG, Germany, Feb 06 (IPS) – The decision of Germany and other NATO states to supply modern battle tanks and other armoured infantry vehicles to Ukraine takes the West’s involvement in the war to a new level.

    Presumably, in the further course of the war, the numbers mentioned so far will not be enough; the decision to provide tanks immediately sparked an international debate on delivering fighter planes as well.

    We are also hearing initial calls for NATO troops to be deployed to Ukraine as a ‘deterrent’, which would mean NATO becoming embroiled in the war. However, the discussion about the objectives in the Ukraine war mustn’t be muddied, even if clarifying these leads to a fierce dispute both within and amongst the NATO states. There is just too much at stake.

    The American and German governments indicate that they want to enable Ukraine to hold the frontline which it has fought for so far and liberate more areas wherever possible. All occupied territories, including Crimea, would probably be regained through a strategic approach of lengthy negotiations under the pressure of overwhelming Western sanction packages.

    This objective comes with the broader demand that Ukraine be enabled to reconquer its entire territory through military counterattacks, something also put forward by the Ukrainian leadership. The serious risks of escalation associated with this must be thoroughly analysed, which has largely been skirted around in the discussions so far.

    The fog of war prevents us from predicting how things will play out. All professional military policy experts are aware that their analyses, evaluations and forecasts are clouded by this; there are always bound to be frictions and surprises. However, looking at various scenarios can help us refine our assessments of what might be on the horizon.

    We will attempt to assess the potential effects of the new tank deliveries to Ukraine, using two scenarios that look ahead to the early summer of 2023. In both scenarios, it is assumed that the Ukrainian army will gradually receive about 100 Western battle tanks, most of the Leopard model, and around 100 largely German and American infantry vehicles by early summer 2023.

    The 31 M1 Abrams tanks previously promised are unlikely to be delivered by this point. Two tank battalions and two tank grenadier battalions – roughly equivalent to a brigade – will be equipped with the new heavy weapons systems by the early summer under both scenarios.

    Another assumption is that the widely anticipated Russian spring offensive, targeting the Luhansk or Donetsk area, will begin around the end of February or March. Very few Western battle and infantry vehicles, if any, are likely to be used, in what are expected to be highly intense battles with severe casualties.

    It is assumed with some uncertainty that the more professional and mobile Ukrainian defence can ward off larger operational gains from the major Russian units. These two scenarios look to the early summer after the Ukrainian army has taken delivery of the tanks from the West.

    By the late spring, it becomes clear that the Ukrainian military intends to push hard towards the south from the area east and southeast of Zaporizhzhia. The goal is to advance over about 100 km to the Sea of Azov and cut the Russian troops off south of the river Dnieper and, more than anything, to stop Crimea from being supplied via the land bridge.

    The terrain in this area is mostly open and flat – highly beneficial to tanks – and, with the exception of the town of Melitopol, is only dotted with small villages. In the early summer of 2023, Ukraine makes bold advances south under favourable weather conditions, targeting the Sea of Azov coast.

    This results in the first major tank battle of the war, which sees German Leopards and Marders deployed at the front, as well as the American Bradleys and Strikers. With their better armour, agility and weapon effect, they clearly come out on top in a head-to-head battle.

    Ukrainian commanders, however, struggle to master the complexity of mixed-weapons combat, in which battle tanks, armoured infantry vehicles with tank grenadiers, artillery, sappers and air support must work together in close coordination to achieve the full force of impact. Heavy Russian tank and infantry forces withstand the advancing units.

    The Ukrainian counterattack progresses for about 30 km but then gets bogged down in the huge defensive firing, after Russian mechanised units succeed in pushing into the flank of the Ukrainian tank formations, jeopardising their supply. Soldier and material losses are severely high again on both sides.

    Pictures of destroyed Leopard tanks are plastered across the internet. German television channels and online media increasingly draw parallels with historical footage of German tanks during the Second World War in the same region.

    From a political and strategic perspective, attrition warfare has been consolidated in this scenario, despite tactical gains on both sides. Russia still has about 10 to 12 per cent of the Ukrainian territory under its control.

    The extensive exhaustion of weapons systems, spare parts and ammunition from the German and American armies is increasingly running down the operational capability and perseverance of the NATO forces on both sides of the Atlantic.

    As production capacity remains limited, there is increasing support for an agreement between the US, Ukraine and Russia to bring an end to the war. In Ukraine, the devastating losses are affecting more and more families, leading to political demands for a ceasefire. Opposition politicians demand that their president publish the actual losses incurred since the war began.

    Scenario 2 is identical to scenario 1 up to the Ukrainian army’s counterattack from the area east of Zaporizhzhia. But in this scenario, operations are proceeding as planned by the Ukrainian General Staff. Kyiv has deployed forces equipped with Western tanks and infantry vehicles to the heart of the battlefield.

    With the superior firepower, armour and agility of the Leopard 2 tanks, they advance towards intermediate targets northeast of Melitopol after a few days. Leadership, fighting strength and motivation are once again proving weak amongst Russian ranks, while the Ukrainian troops’ command of mixed-weapons combat is better than initially expected by Western military experts.

    Leopard spearheads reach villages just off the coast, opposite Crimea. As Ukrainians advance, American-made HIMARS rockets destroy the new Russian bridge near Kerch in some places, rendering it unusable for supplying Crimea. Russia responds with the most intense air raid ever launched on Kyiv, with numerous casualties reported and electricity supply destroyed.

    The Russian president makes a brief statement following a stage-managed press conference with his General Staff. Putin first states that the Russian Federation now considers the NATO states that supplied heavy weapons to Ukraine as direct opponents in the war, regardless of any fine details in international law.

    The ongoing attack on Russian-occupied Crimea could only have come about through the massive involvement of Western states. The war has now created an existential dimension for the Russian Federation. As far as Russia is concerned, the entire war zone now extends to the territory of the Western states supporting Ukraine.

    He refrains from verbal warnings of nuclear war because his earlier threats were not taken seriously. Putin says he has ordered his Defence Minister and General Staff to supply some of the nuclear-capable missile troops with the nuclear warheads stored in depots.

    If the blockade of supplies to Crimea via the land bridge is not removed, Russia must use force through its tactical nuclear weapons. Russian bloggers report that the course of the war has brought unity to Kremlin leaders and only made them more determined to see it through, but this cannot be verified.

    A few hours later, American satellites pick up Russian convoys beginning their journey from the nuclear weapons storage facilities to the nuclear missile battalion deployment areas. This secret intelligence becomes public across the world.

    In a widely unexpected twist, China announces the largest mobilisation of its naval forces ever in the Strait of Taiwan. Its first fleet of warships has already set sail. The US and its NATO partners are now on the verge of a nuclear face-off that has escalated faster than many had believed, with consequences unimaginable for the whole of Europe.

    Western governments, the NATO Council and Military Committee, as well as the UN Security Council, meet day after day. Commentators can’t help but compare it to the height of the Cuban crisis. But NATO leaders clash on their assessments of the situation and their approach. In Berlin, huge demonstrations are held calling for an immediate end to the war, with the slogan ‘Stop the madness’.

    Of course, more optimistic scenarios can also be envisaged in which the Kremlin hands back Crimea without nuclear escalation. The powers that be, including those in Berlin, Washington and Paris, have so far held firm on their objective of not stepping into the grey area of getting directly involved in the war.

    But the danger of slowly and unintentionally sleepwalking into what would be the biggest catastrophe for the whole of Europe is growing and growing. Unexpected twists and turns (sometimes referred to as black swans or wild cards) can also create dynamic developments that are likely to be extremely difficult to control and contain.

    As more German tanks are sent to Ukraine, Germany’s share of responsibility for the course that the war takes – and the consequences thereof – increases and ultimately so does its right and need to influence the leadership in Kyiv.

    Helmut W. Ganser, Brigadier General (retd), is a graduate psychologist and political scientist, who acted as Deputy Head of the Military Policy Department at the Ministry of Defence in Berlin, lecturer on strategy at the German Armed Forces Command and Staff College and military policy advisor to the German Permanent Representatives to NATO and to the UN.

    Source: International Politics and Society (IPS)-Journal published by the International Political Analysis Unit of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Hiroshimastrasse 28, D-10785 Berlin

    IPS UN Bureau


    Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Democracy on the Blink

    Democracy on the Blink

    [ad_1]

    • Opinion by Neville de Silva (london)
    • Inter Press Service

    LONDON, Feb 03 (IPS) – On February 4, Sri Lanka commemorates 75 years of Independence. But it will not be the extravaganza of the past years, the minaturised imitations of the grand displays on Moscow’s Red Square or China’s Tiananmen Square.

    Still, a critical question has been reverberating in the community ever since the government announced a scaled down celebration to commemorate 75 years since Britain relinquished power in 1948.

    After defaulting on the country’s debt servicing last April for the first time in its post-independence history and being forced to resort to massive printing of money to meet state expenditure, does Sri Lanka need to celebrate independence day this year however downsized it would be?

    Particularly so, when President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government itself claims Sri Lanka is struggling economically and it would take years to recover from its current chaos created by leaders who inexorably pushed it to the tip of the abyss with stupid economic policies, wasteful expenditure and wide- scale corruption and fraud.

    While imposing unbearable new taxes and other restrictions on the daily lives of the people, driving them further into penury with school children going without meals, fainting in their classrooms and in need of medical treatment which itself is becoming scarce, the country’s leaders don’t seem short of resources for celebrations.

    Even the country’s diplomatic missions will be holding their annual independence day celebrations as the invitation I received indicated, feasting their countrymen as best as they could.

    Yet over the last couple of months the government has been selling the story that it has no funds to pay for the Local Government elections due in March. A strange enough claim after President Ranil Wickremesinghe, in one of his other roles as finance minister, presenting the budget for 2023 last November allocated funds for the election and parliament, which oversees public expenditure, approved it.

    Now, the very persons who allocated money just three months ago claim to lack funds for a constitutionally required election. Punning on the old Harry Belafonte calypso, there is a hole in the budget, said some wag on social media.

    It is this contradiction in government conduct that an already enraged people find inexcusable. Having got rid of one elected president– Gotabaya Rajapaksa– who surreptitiously fled the country last July when mounting peoples’ protests demanded the Rajapaksa clan quit the government, they find themselves confronted with what Sri Lankans have come to see as a Rajapaksa clone– and now derisively call him Ranil Rajapaksa– thrust into the presidency to keep the family’s political fires alight.

    The Roman poet Juvenal dismissively called the delusionary performances staged by the Roman emperors of the time to distract their discontented citizenry, “panem et circensus”- bread and circuses.

    Bread, like some other essentials, might be scarce or priced beyond the reach of many of its 22 million people. A few months back, the UN agency UNICEF reported that 5.7 million Sri Lankans including 2.3 million children, are in need of humanitarian assistance and the numbers are likely to rise in the coming days.

    But the country’s leaders are not beyond performing their own circus acts. A few days back President Wickremesinghe appointed two more cabinet ministers bringing the total to 22.

    Within hours Sri Lankans with their innate sense of humour were on social media branding the new cabinet “Ali Baba and the 22” with the doors to the cabinet still open for more acolytes chosen not for integrity and competence but loyalty.

    Before the two new ministers fattened the cabinet, splicing off the portfolios of two existing ministers, President Wickremesinghe a couple of months ago appointed 37 state ministers leaving room for three more.

    Sri Lanka’s bloated ministerial ranks would surely be one of the largest in today’s parliamentary democracies. Not only is it large in numbers but the perks offered to ministers and state ministers is stunningly staggering–salaries, free housing, several expensive vehicles with fuel, free utilities such as electricity, water, telephones up to a point, several personal staff with paid salaries, armed personal security with escort vehicles, a special allowance for each day they attend parliament, state pension after five years and other facilities not generally known.

    While the government is prepared to splash state funds on bolstering party cadres and lickspittle who have creamed off state assets, in the last couple of months it has been using every ruse in the books-and some which are not in them- trying to deprive the people of their constitutional right to the franchise, by blocking the Local Government elections due shortly.

    This election, last held in 2018, is for 340 municipal councils, urban councils and village bodies is scheduled for March 9—the date set by the independent Election Commission last month.

    But as the day for the election, as constitutionally required, neared, the attempts to stymie it began with grandees of President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP) and the Rajapaksa clan-run Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) that is propping up Wickremesinghe with its parliamentary majority, asserting that economic recovery must precede elections.

    Ministers and even state officials were trotting out excuses that there was no money to fund elections, expecting the populace to have forgotten the budgetary allocation passed by parliament a few months back.

    As this was being written, internationally-known legal academic and former foreign minister Prof GL Peiris was telling the media the government had made seven attempts to try and stop the election including an affidavit to the Supreme Court filed by the secretary to the finance ministry claiming the state of the economy precluded holding elections right now.

    The latest ruse was a law called the Election Expenses Bill to control spending for elections hurriedly passed by parliament. If, as Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapaksa said, this proposal has been hanging fire for years, why the rush now, the opposition and anxious voters asked.

    Like the opposition, the public too smelled a rotten rat. It was seen as another attempt to derail the elections by calling for the provisions of the bill be incorporated which would call for more time.

    Despite all the public bravura, both the Rajapaksa-controlled SLPP and Wickremesinghe-led UNP which was swept into oblivion at the 2020 general elections, fear that given the mood of the country which rose in mass protests for some seven months last year leading to the resignation of President Rajapaksa and three of his brothers from the cabinet, they would suffer ignominious defeat.

    Especially so the UNP which lost every single seat including that of party leader Wickremesinghe who managed to creep back into parliament one year later through a clause in the electoral law.

    Not only would a poor electoral performance by the SLPP and UNP which have now joined hands make governance difficult and troublesome, it would also strengthen public opposition both to the Rajapaksas and President Wickremesinghe who many argue-and rightly so-as a leader rejected by the country two years ago and lacking a popular mandate to rule the country.

    So what one sees now is a symbiotic relationship between the executive headed by Wickremesinghe and the legislature controlled by the Rajapaksas, running the country and using outdated laws- some dating back to British times- to beat back public dissent, employing the security forces to trample on the constitutionally guaranteed freedoms of the people- free speech and expression, of association and assembly and peaceful protest.

    It also raises issues about the independence of the Attorney-General and some of the independent institutions set up under the constitution which are believed to have come under pressure during the Wickremesinghe presidency.

    With two arms of the state- the executive and legislature under the control of the Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa- led cabal and backed by the security forces as recent event have shown, Sri Lanka’s increasingly beleaguered populace can only rely for justice on the third arm of the state- an independent judiciary.

    Over the years the judiciary has, now and then, been under pressure from dictatorial leaders who have not been averse to tamper with justice and the judicial process, sometimes denying impartial, independent judges their rightful place as chief justice or appointing friends or those amenable to the judiciary.

    But two recent judgements by the Supreme Court have resurrected public faith that the judiciary could be relied on to safeguard the constitution and the peoples’ constitutional and human rights against state abuse of the law and the battering and brutality by the security forces.

    A few months back the government tried to push through a “Bureau of Rehabilitation Bill” ostensibly to help treat and rehabilitate drug addicts and other drug users. Under cover of that it hoped to incarcerate political dissidents, activists and others which state security would identify those they do not like as ‘trouble makers’.

    So, it included among those to be included under the law “ex-combatants, members of violent groups, violent extremist person and any other person or group of persons”.

    The Supreme Court saw through this as an attempt to round up any person the authorities considered a political nuisance and hold them without recourse to the law. The court struck down the clause.

    Holding that the Bill as a whole violated the constitution, it said it could be acceptable if certain clauses were amended. One of the clauses it found repugnant was the one cited above which the court wanted deleted, leaving rehabilitation open only to drug dependent persons and those identified by law as in need of rehabilitation.

    In mid-January the Supreme Court delivered a landmark verdict which held former president Maithripala Sirisena, secretary of the defence ministry, police chief and top- ranking intelligence officers, of dereliction of duty and “failure to act” when valid and clear intelligence was passed on by foreign sources of an impending terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists on churches on Easter Sunday in 2019.

    Some 270 persons including foreigners were killed and several hundred wounded in these attacks on churches and Colombo hotels.

    Since these were civil cases, President Sirisena was fined 100 million rupees and the others lesser amounts. Sirisena as a former president was no longer entitled to immunity, a lesson for other former and future presidents that they too are liable to civil and criminal action such as corruption and human rights violations once they cease to hold office.

    These judicial judgments bring some hope to the people that the citadels of power are vulnerable and could be breached by a strong and upright judiciary, the only institution now left to protect and uphold the country’s democratic traditions and norms.

    If the judiciary is badgered, the last resort is too bloody to contemplate.

    Neville de Silva is a veteran Sri Lankan journalist who held senior roles in Hong Kong at The Standard and worked in London for Gemini News Service. He has been a correspondent for the foreign media including the New York Times and Le Monde. More recently he was Sri Lanka’s Deputy High Commissioner in London.

    Source: Asian Affairs, London

    IPS UN Bureau


    Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • It’s Time to Move Away from Public-Private Partnerships & Build a Future That is Public

    It’s Time to Move Away from Public-Private Partnerships & Build a Future That is Public

    [ad_1]

    Protesters in Mulhouse, France warn of the dangers of privatisation. The sign reads ‘when everything is privatised, we will be deprived of everything. Credit: NeydtStock / Shutterstock.com
    • Opinion by Oceane Blavot – Rodolfo Bejarano – Mae Buenaventura (brussels / lima / manila)
    • Inter Press Service

    BRUSSELS / LIMA / MANILA, Feb 02 (IPS) – Last month, we joined more than 1000 representatives from all sectors of civil society who came together in Santiago de Chile to debate the future of – and threats to – public services the world over.

    Participants discussed the chronic underfunding which continues to drive economic inequality, injustice and austerity, and the neocolonial policies that maintain the status quo.

    Today those debates have resulted in the launch of “Our Future is Public: The Santiago Declaration for Public Services” – a momentous agreement signed by more than 200 organisations vowing to work to “transform our systems, valuing human rights and ecological sustainability over GDP growth and narrowly defined economic gains.”

    One of the most damaging initiatives that has deeply affected the delivery of public services and infrastructure projects on all continents is the rise of public-private partnerships, or PPPs.

    They have long been promoted by institutions such as the World Bank as a silver bullet to close the so-called gap to finance investments in services and infrastructure. The premise is that the private sector can deliver these services more efficiently and to a higher standard than the public sector, despite extensive evidence to the contrary.

    We lay the pitfalls of PPPs bare in our new report History RePPPeated II: Why public-private partnerships are not the solution – the second in a series of investigations documenting the impacts of PPPs across Africa, Asia, Latin America and Europe.

    Launched at the Santiago conference with some of the partners responsible for investigating and authoring the case studies, the report not only highlights negative impacts of PPPs, but sets out recommendations for how to better finance infrastructure and public services in the face of false solutions that have been proposed given the context of the current polycrisis.

    These narratives wholly reflect red flags that are raised in the Santiago Declaration.

    Through these investigations, we discovered failures on multiple levels in PPPs covering infrastructure such as roads and water supplies, as well as vital public services like healthcare and education.

    From escalating costs for the stretched public sector to environmental and social impacts, we found time and again that communities had been ignored, displaced, and had their basic rights violated by thoughtless projects designed and implemented in the pursuit of profit.

    A prime example is that of the the Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in Nepal. First announced nearly a quarter of a century ago, the project’s aim was to deliver clean, reliable and affordable water to 1.5 million people in Kathmandu.

    And yet, 24 years later, residents are still waiting, while communities at the Melamchi water source are facing scarcity of water and eroded livelihoods. Instead of safe, clean drinking water – an internationally recognised human right – they have witnessed an extraordinary revolving door of private companies and institutional funders, including the World Bank, who have each failed to deliver.

    To add to the MWSP’s colossal failure, 80 hectares of farmland have been lost to the project, a heavy blow to local residents, and up to 80 households have been forcibly displaced due to construction.

    Who owns and controls our resources and public services became even more vitally important with the outbreak of the Covid pandemic in March 2020. Market-based models cannot be relied upon to deliver on human rights or the fight against inequalities as they are accountable only to their shareholders and not to their users.

    This resulting focus on profit is overwhelmingly apparent in our case study from Liberia. Here, US firm Bridge International Academies (now NewGlobe) ‘abandoned’ its students and teachers during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, shutting down schools and cutting teachers’ salaries by 80-90 per cent, despite being paid by the government.

    And yet, in 2021 the Liberian government indefinitely extended the project, effectively subsidising a US for-profit firm at a cost that is at least double government spending on public schools.

    In Peru, the Expressway Yellow Line has emerged as one of the most controversial projects ever carried out. This toll road was supposed to ease congestion issues in the capital city Lima, but instead toll rates have been unreasonably increased on at least eight occasions.

    This generated almost $23 million for the private company involved and transpired with the complicity of public officials. Meanwhile, the Peruvian state suffered economic damages of US$1.2 million due to under the table negotiations between public officials and the private company, which led to the incorrect implementation and improper modifications of the contract years after it was initially signed.

    Today, questions regarding the project and conflicts surrounding its implementation remain, while Lima residents’ expectations of quality road infrastructure to improve living conditions for those who have been most affected, continue to go unmet.

    The human cost of the PPP projects showcased by History RePPPeated II is self-evident, but they are far from the exception. Rather they serve to illustrate common failures with the PPP model that risk compromising fundamental human rights and that undermine the fight against climate change and inequalities.

    Their continuing promotion is one of the many reasons why we support the Santiago Declaration. Together with all its signatories, we will strengthen resistance to PPPs with their focus on private-led interests and promote public-public or public-common partnerships for a future that is public.

    Océane Blavot is Senior Campaign and Outreach Coordinator, Development Finance, European Network on Debt and Development; Rodolfo Bejarano is Economist and Analyst – New Financial Architecture, Latin American Network for Economic and Social Justice; Mae Buenaventura is Debt Justice Programme, Team Manager, Asian People’s Movement on Debt and Development

    The Santiago Declaration on Public Services, is a global manifesto signed by more than 300 organisations from around the world, and which was launched at the end of last week. The Declaration signals the start of an international movement to move away from the privatisation of public services and towards a future that is publicly funded and controlled. It is also the outcome of a 4-day conference during which several CSOs from around the world launched a report containing a series of investigations highlighting the failures of the PPP model in projects around the world, titled History RePPPeated II.

    This OpEd is authored by three of the report’s authors.

    IPS UN Bureau


    Follow IPS News UN Bureau on Instagram

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link

  • Wall Street to Jerome Powell: We don’t believe you

    Wall Street to Jerome Powell: We don’t believe you

    [ad_1]

    Do you want the good news about the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jerome Powell, the other good news…or the bad news?

    Let’s start with the first bit of good news. Powell and his fellow Fed committee members just hiked short-term interest rates another 0.25 percentage points to 4.75%, which means retirees and other savers are getting the best savings rates in a generation. You can even lock in that 4.75% interest rate for as long as five years through some bank CDs. Maybe even better, you can lock in interest rates of inflation (whatever it works out to be) plus 1.6% a year for three years, and inflation (ditto) plus nearly 1.5% a year for 25 years, through inflation-protected Treasury bonds. (Your correspondent owns some of these long-term TIPS bonds—more on that below.)

    The second bit of good news is that, according to Wall Street, Powell has just announced that happy days are here again.

    The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.05%
    jumped 1% due to the Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference. The more volatile Russell 2000
    RUT,
    +1.49%
    small cap index and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +2.00%
    both jumped 2%. Even bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +1.00%
    rose 2%. Traders started penciling in an end to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and even cuts. The money markets now give a 60% chance that by the fall Fed rates will be lower than they are now.

    It feels like it’s 2019 all over again.

    Now the slightly less good news. None of this Wall Street euphoria seemed to reflect what Powell actually said during his press conference.

    Powell predicted more pain ahead, warned that he would rather raise interest rates too high for too long than risk cutting them too quickly, and said it was very unlikely interest rates would be cut any time this year. He made it very clear that he was going to err on the side of being too hawkish than risk being too dovish.

    Actual quote, in response to a press question: “I continue to think that it is very difficult to manage the risk of doing too little and finding out in 6 or 12 months that we actually were close but didn’t get the job done, inflation springs back, and we have to go back in and now you really do have to worry about expectations getting unanchored and that kind of thing. This is a very difficult risk to manage. Whereas…of course, we have no incentive and no desire to overtighten, but if we feel that we’ve gone too far and inflation is coming down faster than we expect we have tools that would work on that.” (My italics.)

    If that isn’t “I would much rather raise too much for too long than risk cutting too early,” it sure sounded like it.

    Powell added: “Restoring price stability is essential…it is our job to restore price stability and achieve 2% inflation for the benefit of the American public…and we are strongly resolved that we will complete this task.”

    Meanwhile, Powell said that so far inflation had really only started to come down in the goods sector. It had not even begun in the area of “non-housing services,” and these made up about half of the entire basket of consumer prices he’s watching. He predicts “ongoing increases” of interest rates even from current levels.

    And so long as the economy performs in line with current forecasts for the rest of the year, he said, “it will not be appropriate to cut rates this year, to loosen policy this year.”

    Watching the Wall Street reaction to Powell’s comments, I was left scratching my head and thinking of the Marx Brothers. With my apologies to Chico: Who you gonna believe, me or your own ears?

    Meanwhile, on long-term TIPS: Those of us who buy 20 or 30 year inflation-protected Treasury bonds are currently securing a guaranteed long-term interest rate of 1.4% to 1.5% a year plus inflation, whatever that works out to be. At times in the past you could have locked in a much better long-term return, even from TIPS bonds. But by the standards of the past decade these rates are a gimme. Up until a year ago these rates were actually negative.

    Using data from New York University’s Stern business school I ran some numbers. In a nutshell: Based on average Treasury bond rates and inflation since the World War II, current TIPS yields look reasonable if not spectacular. TIPS bonds themselves have only existed since the late 1990s, but regular (non-inflation-adjusted) Treasury bonds of course go back much further. Since 1945, someone owning regular 10 Year Treasurys has ended up earning, on average, about inflation plus 1.5% to 1.6% a year.

    But Joachim Klement, a trustee of the CFA Institute Research Foundation and strategist at investment company Liberum, says the world is changing. Long-term interest rates are falling, he argues. This isn’t a recent thing: According to Bank of England research it’s been going on for eight centuries.

    “Real yields of 1.5% today are very attractive,” he tells me. “We know that real yields are in a centuries’ long secular decline because markets become more efficient and real growth is declining due to demographics and other factors. That means that every year real yields drop a little bit more and the average over the next 10 or 30 years is likely to be lower than 1.5%. Looking ahead, TIPS are priced as a bargain right now and they provide secure income, 100% protected against inflation and backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.”

    Meanwhile the bond markets are simultaneously betting that Jerome Powell will win his fight against inflation, while refusing to believe him when he says he will do whatever it takes.

    Make of that what you will. Not having to care too much about what the bond market says is yet another reason why I generally prefer inflation-protected Treasury bonds to the regular kind.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Population Decline Hysteria & More Ponzi Demography

    Population Decline Hysteria & More Ponzi Demography

    [ad_1]

    With China’s population at 1.4126 billion, the reported decrease of 850,000 amounts to 0.06 percent. Credit: Shutterstock.
    • Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, usa)
    • Inter Press Service

    PORTLAND, USA, Feb 01 (IPS) – China’s announcement on 17 January 2023 that its population had declined for the first time in 60 years has fostered population decline hysteria and promoted more Ponzi demography in many parts of the world.

    Pro-population growth advocates, including many policy makers, traditional economists, business leaders, conservative writers and media commentators, are advancing the hysteria of demographic gloom and doom following the Chinese government’s announcement of a decline in the world’s largest population.

    China’s population decline was reported to be 850,000, which is the difference between 9.56 million births in 2022 against 10.41 million deaths. With China’s population at 1.4126 billion, the reported decrease of 850,000 amounts to 0.06 percent.

    Much of the media has described China’s population decline with various hysteria phrases, including “demographic time bomb”, “disappearing population” and “demographic collapse” (Chart 1).

    Source: Author’s compilation from news media.

    The population decline hysteria has in turn facilitated the promotion of Ponzi demography, which calls for sustained robust rates of population growth. Ponzi demography is basically a pyramid scheme that generates more money, power and influence for some by adding on more and more people through natural increase and in some cases immigration.

    Its underlying strategy is relatively straightforward: privatize benefits and profits and socialize burdens and costs incurred from increased population growth. Ponzi demography, however, is clearly unsustainable. Populations cannot continue to grow indefinitely without having serious social, economic, environmental and climatic consequences.

    The unsustainability of Ponzi demography, however, doesn’t seem to be a concern of those calling for continuing, robust population growth with no endpoint in sight. The unsustainability and critical consequences of long-term population growth are typically ignored, dismissed or trivialized.

    Instead of getting caught up with population decline hysteria and Ponzi demography, it’s prudent, instructive and advisable to review the past growth of China’s population, examine its likely future growth, and consider some of the major challenges posed by those expected demographic changes.

    China’s population of 1.4126 billion people in 2022, which represents 18 percent of the world’s total, grew rapidly during the recent past. In 1950 the Chinese population was slightly more than a half a billion. China’s one billion population milestone was reached in 1981. By the close of the 20th century, China’s population had grown to approximately 1.3 billion by (Figure 1).

    Source: United Nations.

    China’s future population over the coming decades depends largely on the course of the country’s fertility rate. If its fertility rate of 1.18 births per woman were to remain constant at its current level, the Chinese population at midcentury is projected to decline to 1.28 billion, a decrease of about 10 percent.

    The often-cited United Nations medium variant population projection assumes China’s fertility rate will increase slightly over the coming several decades, reaching 1.39 births per woman by 2050. If that were to occur, China’s population in 2050 is again projected to decline, reaching 1.31 billion.

    Under the UN high variant population projection, China’s fertility rate is a half child higher than medium variant, i.e., 1.89 births per woman by 2050. The high variant projection results in China’s population in 2050 remaining essentially unchanged at its current size of 1.41 billion.

    Alternatively, fertility in the UN low variant population projection is a half child lower than the medium variant, i.e., 0.89 births per woman by 2050. The expected 2050 population of China in the low variant projection is 1.22 billion, a decrease of 15 percent from its current population.

    China is not alone in its low fertility rate. Approximately 100 countries worldwide have a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.

    Moreover, the fertility rates of some thirty countries in 2022 were less than 1.5 births per woman. Several of those countries had fertility rates that were roughly half or less than the replacement level, including China, Italy and South Korea, and consequently are confronting population decline (Figure 2).

    Source: United Nations.

    The low fertility rates of today, including China’s, are expected to increase somewhat in the coming decades. However, despite the desires, policies, and programs of governments to raise fertility levels, expectations of a return to replacement level fertility in the foreseeable future can be simply described as future fertility fantasies. Consequently, the current populations of some 50 countries, including China’s, are projected to be smaller by midcentury.

    In addition to population decline, China as well as many other low fertility countries are experiencing demographic ageing. The median age of China’s population is expected to continue rising during the 21st century. China’s median age increased from 18 years in 1970 to nearly 39 years today. By 2070 the median age of China’s population is expected to be 55 years, or three times the median age of the population in 1970.

    Besides its expected population decline, demography ageing presents a major challenge for China. The consequences of the demographic realities of older population age structures with declining numbers of young workers supporting growing numbers of the elderly are likely unavoidable.

    Consequently, careful rethinking, comprehensive evaluations and major adjustments, some likely to be unpopular with the public such as raising the official retirement age, will be needed.

    In addition to China, many countries with below replacement fertility are expected to face declining populations and older age structures over the coming decades. In contrast, many other countries, especially in Africa, with fertility levels of more than four births per woman are expected to have rapidly increasing populations and relatively young age structures throughout the century.

    The net result of these substantial country differences in future population growth rates is that the world’s current population of 8 billion is projected to continue increasing. Over the next forty years, the world’s population is expected to add another 2 billion people, reaching 10 billion around 2058.

    So, in conclusion, it’s time to stop fostering population decline hysteria with its doom and gloom and promoting Ponzi demography of unsustainable, continued robust population growth. It’s time to recognize, understand and analyze today’s demographics and their likely trends over the coming decades. And also importantly, it’s time for countries to prepare for the formidable challenges of their respective expected demographic realities in the 21st century.

    Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

    © Inter Press Service (2023) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service

    [ad_2]

    Global Issues

    Source link