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Tag: Oil/Natural Gas Midstream Operations

  • These 20 energy stocks are worth a look if you think oil prices will soar in 2023

    These 20 energy stocks are worth a look if you think oil prices will soar in 2023

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    Harris Kupperman, the president of Praetorian Capital, made a couple of interesting calls heading into 2022. He predicted that stocks of the giant tech-oriented companies that led the bull market would be sold off, and that oil prices would continue to rise through the end of 2022.

    The first prediction came true, while the second one for oil prices fizzled. After rising to $130 in March, oil prices have fallen back to where they started the year. Then again, that second prediction still could have made you a lot of money because the share prices of oil companies kept rising anyway.

    That leads to a new prediction for 2023 and a related stock screen below.

    Here’s a chart showing the movement of front-month contract prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil
    CL.1,
    -0.62%

    since the end of 2021:


    FactSet

    Even though Kupperman didn’t get his oil price call right, the energy sector of the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.20%

    was up 60% for 2022 through Dec. 27, excluding dividends. That is the only one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to show a gain in 2022. And the energy sector is also cheapest relative to earnings expectations, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8, compared with 16.7 for the full S&P 500.

    WTI pulled back from its momentary peak at $130.50 in early March, but that didn’t reverse the long-term trend of low capital spending by oil and natural gas producers, which has given investors confidence that supplies will remain tight.

    Vicki Hollub, the CEO of Occidental Petroleum Corp.
    OXY,
    -3.50%

    the best-performing S&P 500 stock of 2022 — said during a recent interview that there was “no pressure to increase production right now,” citing a $40 per barrel break-even point for oil prices.

    Kupperman now expects strong demand and low supplies to push oil as high as $200 a barrel in 2023.

    At the end of November, these 20 oil companies stood out as reasonable plays for 2023 based on expectations for free-cash-flow generation and dividend payments.

    For this next screen, we are only looking at ratings and consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet.

    There are 23 energy stocks in the S&P 500, and you can invest in that group easily by purchasing shares of the Energy Select SPDR ETF
    XLE,
    -2.24%
    .
    We can expand the list of large-cap names by looking at the components of the iShares Global Energy ETF
    IXC,
    -1.91%
    ,
    which holds all the energy stocks in the S&P 500 plus large players based outside the U.S.

    The top five holdings of IXC are:

    Company

    Ticker

    Country

    % of portfolio

    Share “buy” ratings

    Dec. 27 price

    Price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Exxon Mobil Corp.

    XOM,
    -1.64%
    U.S.

    16.4%

    54%

    110.19

    118.89

    7.89%

    Chevron Corp.

    CVX,
    -1.48%
    U.S.

    11.5%

    54%

    179.63

    190.52

    6.06%

    Shell PLC

    SHEL,
    -0.70%
    U.K.

    7.8%

    83%

    23.67

    29.82

    25.99%

    TotalEnergies SE

    TTE,
    -1.40%
    France

    5.6%

    62%

    59.63

    64.40

    8.00%

    ConocoPhillips

    COP,
    -2.67%
    U.K.

    5.4%

    83%

    118.47

    140.84

    18.88%

    Source: FactSet

    Prices on the tables in this article are in local currencies.

    IXC holds 51 stocks. To expand the list for a stock screen, we added the energy stocks in the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
    MID,
    -1.24%

    and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
    SML,
    -1.89%

    to bring the list up to 91 companies, which we then pared to 83 covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.

    Here are the 20 companies in the list with at least 75% “buy” or equivalent ratings that have the most upside potential over the next 12 months, based on consensus price targets:

    Company

    Ticker

    Country

    Share “buy” ratings

    Dec. 27 price

    Price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    EQT Corp.

    EQT,
    -7.82%
    U.S.

    83%

    36.34

    59.14

    63%

    Green Plains Inc.

    GPRE,
    -2.72%
    U.S.

    80%

    29.80

    43.40

    46%

    Cameco Corp.

    CCO,
    +0.33%
    Canada

    100%

    30.48

    44.25

    45%

    Talos Energy Inc.

    TALO,
    -8.40%
    U.S.

    86%

    19.77

    28.67

    45%

    Ranger Oil Corp. Class A

    ROCC,
    -6.22%
    U.S.

    100%

    41.33

    58.00

    40%

    Tourmaline Oil Corp.

    TOU,
    -4.92%
    Canada

    100%

    71.40

    98.83

    38%

    Civitas Resources Inc.

    CIVI,
    -4.06%
    U.S.

    100%

    58.82

    80.83

    37%

    Inpex Corp.

    1605,
    -2.08%
    Japan

    88%

    1,477.00

    1,965.56

    33%

    Diamondback Energy Inc.

    FANG,
    -2.26%
    U.S.

    84%

    137.58

    181.90

    32%

    Santos Limited

    STO,
    -3.12%
    Australia

    100%

    7.20

    9.26

    29%

    Matador Resources Co.

    MTDR,
    -3.98%
    U.S.

    79%

    57.59

    73.75

    28%

    Targa Resources Corp.

    TRGP,
    -2.63%
    U.S.

    95%

    73.89

    94.05

    27%

    Cenovus Energy Inc.

    CVE,
    -2.55%
    Canada

    84%

    26.24

    33.22

    27%

    Shell PLC

    SHEL,
    -0.70%
    U.K.

    83%

    23.67

    29.82

    26%

    Ampol Limited

    ALD,
    -2.89%
    Australia

    85%

    28.29

    35.01

    24%

    EOG Resources Inc.

    EOG,
    -3.54%
    U.S.

    79%

    132.08

    157.52

    19%

    ConocoPhillips

    COP,
    -2.67%
    U.S.

    83%

    118.47

    140.84

    19%

    Repsol SA

    REP,
    -0.66%
    Spain

    75%

    15.05

    17.88

    19%

    Halliburton Co.

    HAL,
    -3.03%
    U.S.

    86%

    39.27

    45.95

    17%

    Marathon Petroleum Corp.

    MPC,
    -1.97%
    U.S.

    76%

    116.82

    132.56

    13%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more information about the companies.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

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  • 11 high-yield dividend stocks that are Wall Street’s favorites for 2023

    11 high-yield dividend stocks that are Wall Street’s favorites for 2023

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    Investors love dividend stocks but there are different ways to look at them, including various “quality” approaches. Today we are focusing on high yields.

    A high dividend yield can be a warning that investors have lost confidence in a company’s ability to maintain its dividend payout. But there are always exceptions, some of which can be brought about by market events — some investors remain skeptical of energy stocks, for example, after so much pain before this year’s outstanding performance for the sector.

    Below is a screen of stocks that have high dividend yields and are favored by analysts. The screen has no financial quality filters.

    For investors who are interested in dividend stocks but wish to focus on quality and total returns, this recent look at the S&P Dividend Aristocrats (companies that have raised dividends consistently for many years) might be of interest. For those looking for income but also worried about dividend cuts, here is a list of stocks with dividend yields of at least 5% whose payouts are expected to be well-covered by free cash flow in 2023.

    If you are looking for higher yields with moderate risk, you should at also learn about funds that use covered-call option strategies to enhance income.

    Removing the filters for a high-yield dividend-stock screen

    For a broad screen of stocks with high dividend yields that are favored by analysts, we began with the S&P Composite 1500 Index
    SP1500,
    +1.42%
    ,
    which is made up of the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.42%
    ,
    the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
    MID,
    +1.48%
    ,
    and the S&P 600 Small Cap Index
    SML,
    +1.49%
    .

    The S&P indexes exclude energy partnerships, so we added the 15 stocks held by the Alerian MLP ETF
    AMLP,
    +1.81%

    to the list. Energy partnerships tend to have high distribution yields, in part because they pass most earnings through to investors. But they also can make tax preparation more complicated. They can also be volatile as oil
    CL00,
    +2.96%

    CL00 and natural-gas
    NG00,
    +1.58%

    prices swing.

    The S&P indexes also exclude business development companies, or BDCs, so we expanded our initial screen to include the 24 stocks held by the VanEck BDC income ETF
    BIZD,
    +0.76%
    .
    BDCs are specialized leveraged lenders that make loans with high interest rates, mainly to middle-market companies. They often take equity stakes in the companies they lend to, for a venture-capital-type of investment style. The BDC space features several stocks with very high dividend yields, but is also known for volatility.

    You have been warned — this particular stock screen focuses only on high yields and favorable ratings among analysts working for brokerage firms. There is no look back at dividend cuts and no cash-flow analysis as featured in other dividend-stock articles. If you see anything of interest resulting from the screen, you need to do your own research to consider whether or not a long-term commitment to one or more of these companies is worth the risk as you seek high income.

    The screen

    Starting with the S&P Composite 1500 and the components of AMLP and BIZD, there are 68 stocks with dividend yields of at least 8%, according to data provided by FactSet.

    Among the 68 companies, 55 made the first screen, because they are covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.

    Among the 55 companies, 11 have “buy” or equivalent ratings among at least 70% of analysts.

    Here they are, ranked by upside potential implied by analysts’ consensus price targets:

    Company

    Ticker

    Dividend yield

    Share “buy” ratings

    Dec. 20 price

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Energy Transfer LP

    ET,
    +2.35%
    9.08%

    95%

    $11.68

    $16.24

    39%

    Enterprise Products Partners LP

    EPD,
    +0.88%
    8.12%

    79%

    $23.39

    $31.69

    35%

    Barings BDC Inc.

    BBDC,
    11.67%

    86%

    $8.14

    $10.75

    32%

    Redwood Trust Inc.

    RWT,
    +2.70%
    13.45%

    80%

    $6.84

    $8.92

    30%

    Crestwood Equity Partners LP

    CEQP,
    +0.78%
    9.75%

    100%

    $26.86

    $35.00

    30%

    KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.

    KREF,
    +1.38%
    11.90%

    71%

    $14.45

    $18.50

    28%

    Owl Rock Capital Corp.

    ORCC,
    +0.38%
    11.21%

    91%

    $11.78

    $14.73

    25%

    Sixth Street Specialty Lending Inc.

    TSLX,
    +1.89%
    10.48%

    82%

    $17.18

    $20.90

    22%

    Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp.

    OCSL,
    -0.37%
    9.97%

    100%

    $6.77

    $7.75

    14%

    Ares Capital Corp.

    ARCC,
    +1.22%
    10.45%

    93%

    $18.38

    $20.87

    14%

    BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.

    TCPC,
    +1.76%
    10.25%

    71.43%

    $12.49

    $14.00

    12%

    Source: FactSet

    One way to begin your own research into any company listed here is to click on the ticker for more information.

    You should also read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.

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