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Tag: obamacare premiumns

  • Only Trump Can Reopen the Government. But He’s Not in the Mood.

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    Deal-making overseas is so much more interesting than deal-making at home.
    Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

    Before last night’s off-year elections, there was quiet momentum in Washington toward an end to the government shutdown, which has officially become the longest one in U.S. history. Among Senate Democrats, there was angst over the damage being done to public employees and SNAP beneficiaries and some confidence that public reaction to Obamacare-premium spikes would lead Republicans to agree to a subsidy extension after the government reopened. Among congressional Republicans, there was a realization that the public was blaming them for the shutdown and a recognition that Democrats needed some sort of moral victory in order to give up the fight. And among appropriators of both parties, there was a desperate desire to return to bipartisan spending decisions instead of lurching from shutdown threats to stopgap spending bills and back again. So a deal seemed likely.

    But only one person could make a deal possible: President Donald Trump. Without his personal involvement, no Democrat could trust that a deal would be honored. And without his personal pressure, too many House Republicans would refuse to make any concessions to Democrats at all, particularly if it involved the hated Obamacare program. Yes, Trump was too distracted by his recent world travels to cut deals and lobby for peace prizes. But he’d eventually focus, particularly after Senate Republicans made it clear they wouldn’t just cut to the chase by killing the filibuster and crushing Democrats without negotiations.

    Then last night happened, and suddenly it’s not at all clear if the government is reopening soon. Trump publicly blamed Republican losses on the shutdown and accurately pointed out the quickest solution to that problem was for Republicans to follow his earlier instructions: Kill the filibuster, and impose a reopening on Democrats by a simple majority vote in the Senate. During what Axios described as an “uncomfortable breakfast” with Republican senators who were sorting through the ashes of the off-year elections, Trump stamped his foot:

    The room was “eerily silent” and “uncomfortable” Wednesday morning as President Trump cajoled Republican senators to end the filibuster, multiple attendees told Axios …

    Trump warned the party would “get killed” and be viewed as “do-nothing Republicans” if they don’t change Senate rules requiring 60 votes for most legislation.

    “If you don’t terminate the filibuster, you’ll be in bad shape,” the president told GOP senators during the televised portion of the breakfast remarks.

    He went even further after the press was instructed to leave.

    So much for the prior Republican self-assurance that if they just held their ground, Democrats would either cave or crawl to them for a face-saving deal that wouldn’t require real concessions. But as John Thune made clear after the “uncomfortable breakfast,” the Republican votes aren’t there to do what Trump wants. So it will require some very serious presidential arm-twisting (making Senate GOP lives “a living hell,” one Trump adviser warned) to bring them around.

    Meanwhile, as Punchbowl News reports, Democratic spines were stiffened by the same election returns that enraged Trump:

    Senate Democrats who want to keep up the fight are pointing to Tuesday’s election results as evidence that the public is with them — and that they shouldn’t cave now.

    Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said their victories should “give Democrats confidence that the American people have our back as we engage in the fight to protect people’s health care and save our democracy …”

    Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) are leading 25 fellow Senate Democrats in a new letter to the Trump administration that slams the GOP for refusing to negotiate a deal to reopen the government that concretely addresses health care. It lists rising health care costs, including spiking Obamacare premiums, and says voters want Congress and the president to act.

    So what, or who, is going to give? Trump, most Democrats, and the more sensible Republicans all want the government to reopen. But it’s not happening unless Trump okays concessions he is in no mood to consider or, alternatively, unless Senate Republicans stop thinking ahead to a future in the minority and make Congress a totally party-run operation. It does not seem to have occurred to Trump that another authoritarian power grab might be as unpopular as the shutdown it would end. And it must really suck to be John Thune right now and bear the burden of talking either his president or his colleagues into abandoning their positions.


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    Ed Kilgore

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  • The Other Demand Democrats Should Make During the Shutdown Fight

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    Here’s the real battleground.
    Photo: Matt McClain/The Washington Post/Getty Images

    As congressional Democrats sort through their strategic options for managing the current government shutdown, they should keep in mind the unavailability of some prize they might otherwise seek and the variable rewards associated with others. In the real world, Donald Trump isn’t going to reverse the Medicaid cuts enacted in the Republican megabill or permanently eschew Russ Vought’s claims of executive-branch power over spending authority. Now that he’s hailed Vought as the Grim Reaper and labeled Democrats as “the party of Satan,” about the most the opposition can realistically expect is a suspension of mass federal-employee layoffs if the government reopens, and even that’s a stretch. Yes, the most realizable goal is some sort of extension (probably partial) of Obamacare premium subsidies, and that’s a pretty big deal. But that would mean giving up a portion of the Democratic case that Trump is ravaging health-care coverage, so the prize would be shared.

    The limited public concessions Democrats can claim have led some observers to suggest they focus on issues that the public may not perceive as vital but that really would restrict Trump’s ability to act like a dictator while providing relief to his victims. Jonathan V. Last suggests a few at the Bulwark:

    A legislative end to “Kavanaugh stops.”

    Ending qualified immunity for federal law enforcement officers.

    Mandating that federal law enforcement officers cannot wear masks and must display identifying badges/markings at all times.

    Closing the “emergency” loopholes that the administration has claimed for everything from tariffs to acts of war.

    Removing the secretary of state’s discretionary power to revoke visas.

    If, as is entirely possible, it’s exactly these sort of obscure but crucial legal and institutional issues where the White House will be most obstinate, then different calculations might come into play. Ultimately, if Congress or the courts won’t do their part to restrain Trump’s power grabs, the only recourse is a decision by voters to take away his governing trifecta in November 2026, most likely by flipping the House to Democratic control.

    Democrats understand that unique opportunity, which is why they are putting so much emphasis on health-care policy, an area of historic weakness for Republicans and a particular vulnerability for Trump. In focusing their demands for reopening the government on health care, they are in effect rehearsing their midterm message. But there is perhaps one other thing they can do to boost their chances of winning in 2026 that could become a key demand in negotiations to end the shutdown: limiting the administration’s assault on the election system. It’s far too late for Democrats to do much (other than retaliate, as California is doing) about Trump’s unprecedented campaign to convince red states to redraw their congressional maps to shake loose a few more Republican-leaning districts, reducing the number of seats they’d need in order to hang onto the House. But there are other election-rigging measures they should try to prevent.

    Specifically, Democrats could demand a hold on any steps to implement Trump’s dangerous and probably unconstitutional executive order of March 26, which aimed at instituting a national voter-ID system, restricting or even banning voting by mail, and getting rid of voting machines. As election-law wizard Rick Hasen noted immediately: “The aim here is voter suppression pure and simple.” Because of the legal obstacles Trump’s “reforms” face, and since the administration hasn’t done much to put them in place, quietly shelving them might be doable, and would prevent a lot of havoc next year. While they are at it, Democrats should definitely secure a personal pledge from Speaker Mike Johnson that he will not refuse to seat Democratic House candidates whose elections are state-certified on specious grounds that “voter fraud” occurred or that the results are too close to implement. This is the 2027 version of the attempted 2021 Trump election coup I fear most.

    The bigger point here is that all the great messaging and tactical victories Democrats can devise won’t amount to a hill of beans if Trump once again denies the adverse result of an election and this time manages to hang onto total power. Nothing matters more than keeping that from happening.

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    Ed Kilgore

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