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  • Obamacare enrollment dips in Bay Area after extra subsidy expires

    Enrollment in Obamacare is slowing down in California after Republicans in Congress opted not to extend a policy that beefed up financial assistance for patients, a move that led to the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history.

    About 175,000 people statewide have newly enrolled in Covered California, the state’s Affordable Care Act marketplace, so far for 2026. That’s a 31% decrease from this time last year, data shows. Health experts expect bigger declines in the coming months, as more enrollees receive notice of price hikes and cancel their plans. Meanwhile, more people are opting for bronze-level plans with high deductibles and limited coverage.

    “These early numbers don’t even show the extent of what’s likely to happen as people have to pay their premium bills and find they can’t afford them with all their other household expenses,” said Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF.

    Bay Area counties are already clocking declines in new enrollees: 27% in Contra Costa County, 24% in Alameda County and 23% in Santa Clara County, according to Covered California’s data.

    Health officials and advocates gathered in downtown Oakland Tuesday to urge residents to sign up for a Covered California insurance plan before the Jan. 31 deadline, or see if they’re eligible.

    Jessica Altman, third from left, executive director of Covered California speaks with panel members after a press conference on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026, in Oakland, Calif. Officials held the press conference to talk about the open enrollment period for the state’s healthcare marketplace. (Aric Crabb/Bay Area News Group) 

    Even though the enhanced assistance expired at the end of 2025, spiking costs for many, Covered California plans are still more affordable than private insurance, they said. About half of Covered California enrollees are eligible for health plans that cost about $10 a month, and the vast majority qualify for reduced-price insurance, said the marketplace’s Executive Director Jessica Altman.

    “If you’re on the fence — get off the fence,” said Rose Wilkerson, a caregiver and Covered California enrollee who lives in Kensington near the Berkeley Hills. Wilkerson said she pays about $150 a month for a Covered California plan, the same cost as last year.

    That bucks the trend in California, after President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress last year declined to extend tax credits used by millions nationwide to afford health insurance.

    Rose Wilkerson a self-employed health care worker talks about her use of Covered California on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026, in Oakland, Calif. Officials held a press conference to talk about the open enrollment period for the state's healthcare marketplace. (Aric Crabb/Bay Area News Group)
    Rose Wilkerson a self-employed health care worker talks about her use of Covered California on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026, in Oakland, Calif. Officials held a press conference to talk about the open enrollment period for the state’s healthcare marketplace. (Aric Crabb/Bay Area News Group) 

    With the extra help eliminated, the average Covered California plan doubled in cost for 2026, state officials said. The biggest increases were expected for middle-income households and adults in their 50s or 60s, close to Medicare eligibility, whose monthly premiums would rise from $186 to $365, officials said.

    Democrats passed the increased assistance during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. When Republicans opted not to extend the tax credits in the fall, Democrats in the Senate withheld their votes from a budget agreement, kicking off the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history. That strategy proved unsuccessful when a group of moderate Democrats broke ranks.

    Then, earlier this month, a group of Republicans, including Central Valley Rep. David Valadao, broke with their party’s leadership to pass a bill extending the subsidies. That move may ultimately be unsuccessful. The legislation was not included in a major health policy compromise announced Tuesday between Republicans and Democrats in Congress, Politico reported. Levitt, of KFF, said negotiations to extend the subsidies are now “hanging by a thread.”

    Rose Wilkerson a self-employed health care worker talks about her use of Covered California on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026, in Oakland, Calif. Officials held a press conference to talk about the open enrollment period for the state's healthcare marketplace. (Aric Crabb/Bay Area News Group)
    Rose Wilkerson a self-employed health care worker talks about her use of Covered California on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026, in Oakland, Calif. Officials held a press conference to talk about the open enrollment period for the state’s healthcare marketplace. (Aric Crabb/Bay Area News Group) 

    Health advocates in Oakland said they still hope politicians in Washington, D.C., revive the enhanced subsidies. If members of Congress did reach an agreement, Covered California would extend its enrollment period or reopen it, Altman said, so more patients could access financial assistance.

    “We’re hoping that someone, somewhere, can save the day,” said Njeri McGee-Tyner, director of healthcare access for the Alameda Health Consortium.

    In the meantime, McGee-Tyner said her organization’s health navigators are helping customers weigh their options if they’re priced out of the Covered California marketplace. Bigger monthly premiums for some families mean hard choices between medical care, rent and putting food on the table, she said.

    One such option? Paying for a bronze plan, she said. Many in California are taking that route. According to Covered California’s data, more than a third of new customers are enrolling in bronze plans, compared with one-fifth at this time last year, a spokesperson said.

    Customers who can’t afford even the lowest-level Covered California plans may lose their insurance. If their income drops, they may qualify for Medi-Cal, the state’s health plan for low-income residents that is also seeing cuts. Seniors may age into Medicare eligibility, and others will hunt for a job that offers health insurance. However, employer-sponsored health plans also rose in cost this year.

    Grant Stringer

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  • Trump Repackages Random Ideas Into ‘Great Healthcare Plan’

    Out of the blue.
    Photo: X/@WhiteHouse

    For many years, dating all the way back to 2015, Donald Trump has promised he’d someday offer a health-care plan to replace Obamacare. For months Republicans have fretted over allegations that they are clueless or heartless about rising health-care costs, exacerbated by their refusal to extend expiring Obamacare-premium subsidies received by around 22 million Americans. They’ve tossed out a bunch of random conservative health-care panaceas, as has Trump, mostly revolving around health savings accounts and other individualistic measures for undermining Obamacare-style regulated insurance markets.

    Today, without any warning, Trump released a video claiming a bunch of these well-worn ideas represent the “Great Healthcare Plan” he’s been talking about for so long.

    It’s significantly less vague than most of his past maunderings on health care but hardly anything you could call a blueprint, as the New York Times observed:

    The plan was short on specific details and left much of the direction for how to finalize it up to Congress. It amounted to a few paragraphs on a webpage, released with a video of Mr. Trump promoting what he called “the great health care plan.”

    Trump’s video unveiling this “proposal” was an odd pastiche of boasts about what he’s already done in the health-care arena (particularly his jawboning of pharmaceutical companies to lower prices for some drugs), denunciations of the “Unaffordable Care Act” (a term he clearly considers a bon mot), and wild claims about how incredibly good and cheap health care will soon become. He talked of lowering prices by far more than 100 percent, which is a mathematical impossibility. He failed even to mention the biggest problem Obamacare was created to address: the refusal of insurers to provide coverage for people with preexisting conditions or inherently expensive treatments. And once again, Trump’s impulses led him in contradictory directions; despite his denunciations of Obamacare, one of his big ideas is to build on an Obamacare discount feature called “cost-sharing reductions.”

    It’s unclear what Congress is expected to do with this plate of spaghetti thrown against the wall. Not a single Democrat will support this “plan,” which whatever it is, clearly aims to blow up Obamacare, just as Trump and the GOP unsuccessfully tried to do in 2017. That means the only path forward is via the party-line budget-reconciliation procedure, like the one that produced last year’s One Bill Beautiful Bill Act. Going in that direction in an election year with a topic as complex and controversial as health care may please conservative hard-liners who have been longing to destroy Obamacare for many years. But it hardly seems doable in a Congress where Republicans have such tiny margins of control.

    More likely than not, the president is just engaging in some high-visibility pre-midterm “messaging” to show concern over a set of problems that have stumped him and his party for eons. Maybe it will eventually turn into a proposal that more or less hangs together, even if its enactment by Congress is the longest stretch imaginable. Unfortunately, Trump’s claim that he has a “plan” will almost certainly kill off the already languishing efforts to come up with a bipartisan fix for the Obamacare-premium spike that is just now beginning to be felt in pocketbooks everywhere. He should have kept his rambling thoughts to himself.


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    Ed Kilgore

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  • ObamaCare Is a Money Pit for Taxpayers | RealClearPolitics

    ObamaCare Is a Money Pit for Taxpayers

    Bai & Plummer, Wall Street Journal

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  • These small-business owners will become uninsured after key ACA subsidies expire

    (CNN) — When patients come to Eric Frankenfeld’s chiropractic practice with insurance woes, his wife, Lisa, the office manager, tells them not to worry because she’ll work with them to keep care affordable.

    But starting in January, the Frankenfelds might need to ask for the same treatment from their own doctors, since they will become uninsured. The Point Pleasant, New Jersey, couple will no longer be able to afford their Obamacare plan after the enhanced premiums subsidies lapse at year’s end. They decided to forgo coverage after learning that their plan’s premium will skyrocket to $1,928 a month, up from $340 this year.

    Though they are both healthy, the idea of losing coverage keeps Lisa Frankenfeld, 62, up at night — worrying one of them might be diagnosed with cancer, suffer a stroke or heart attack or get into a serious accident.

    “We are health care providers who cannot afford benefits. Oh, the irony,” she told CNN. “Purchasing a plan doesn’t make financial sense. We’re just going to cross our fingers and hope for the best.”

    The Frankenfelds are among the millions of Affordable Care Act enrollees who are facing tough decisions this open enrollment season, which ends January 15 in most states. More than 90% of ACA policyholders — or about 22 million people — receive the enhanced subsidies, which spurred record sign-ups for Obamacare coverage this year.

    A sizeable share of those enrollees are self-employed or own or work at small businesses. Nearly half of adults in the individual health insurance market — the vast majority of which is purchased through Obamacare exchanges — are affiliated with a small business, according to KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group.

    Employer policies are often too pricey for small businesses and for those who work for themselves, leading many to turn to the Affordable Care Act exchanges. And even though several told CNN their Obamacare coverage requires they spend a lot out of pocket for care, they say it’s still better than being uninsured.

    However, without the enhanced subsidies, which were enacted by the Biden administration as part of a 2021 Covid-19 relief package, enrollees’ premium payments are expected to jump 114%, on average, next year. The provision’s lapse also means that consumers who make more than 400% of the federal poverty level — about $62,600 for an individual and $84,600 for a couple — will no longer qualify for any federal aid.

    The House is set to vote in January on extending the beefed-up assistance for three years after four Republicans bucked their caucus and supported a Democratic proposal. But the measure faces a difficult path in the Senate, which voted down a similar Democratic bill earlier this month.

    The potential to lose everything

    Increasingly squeezed by the rising cost of electricity, groceries, personal and business insurance and supplies for their garage door installation and repair company, Kathy and Jeffrey Many of Brandon, Vermont, decided not to renew their Affordable Care Act coverage for 2026. The premium for their plan is shooting up to nearly $2,670 a month, from $625 this year. The cheapest one they could find is nearly $1,870 a month.

    Although the couple had high out-of-pocket costs for care, their Obamacare policy gave them peace of mind in case one of them had to deal with a major illness or accident, Kathy Many told CNN. Being uninsured next year will be “very nerve-wracking,” she said.

    “Every time Jeffrey leaves to go out on a job, I’m going to be like ‘Jesus Christ, I hope nothing happens to him today,’” said Many, 61, her voice breaking, “because everything that I’ve worked my whole life for could be lost to bankruptcy.”

    Instead of having health insurance, Many plans to sock away the $625 a month they were paying this year and “pray” that it will cover their health care expenses until her husband enrolls in Medicare in the fall and she qualifies in 2029.

    A lot of enrollees have been waiting to explore their Obamacare options because they didn’t want to learn how much they would have to pay for coverage come January.

    Jeff , a freelance musician from New York City who earns so little that he did not have to pay a premium this year and last year, waited until mid-December to sign onto his state’s exchange. When he saw the cheapest plan for 2026 would cost him $275 a month, he closed his laptop since he knew he couldn’t afford it and would become uninsured. Instead, he went back to searching for a gig to replace one he just lost.

    The fact that Republicans in Congress are not renewing the enhanced subsidies infuriates Jeff, 50, a registered Democrat who asked that his last name not be used to protect his privacy.

    “We can find money to build an arch and a ballroom that are completely unnecessary and tax cuts for billionaires,” he said, referencing President Donald Trump’s construction plans and the GOP domestic agenda package that passed this summer. “But we can’t insure people medically in this country. It’s unconscionable.”

    Some small-business owners, however, can’t afford to go without health insurance because they have medical conditions and need care. The spike in premiums is forcing them to consider big decisions.

    Sonja, who owns several real estate businesses with her husband, said they are looking into joining with another company in the hope that they can obtain group health insurance with lower premiums if they have a larger workforce. She asked not to include her last name to protect her and her business’ privacy.

    The Minnesota couple will have to shell out more than $2,150 a month next year to cover themselves and their daughter, up from roughly $1,000 this year. Sonja, 49, is not willing to go without insurance, especially after her husband had to have surgery this year, though the higher premiums might force them to sell part of their holdings or stop saving for retirement.

    “In the event that we would have a major health issue, paying for insurance would be a much better spend than being uncovered and opening ourselves to the potential of losing way more,” she said.

    Tami Luhby and CNN

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  • Obamacare is not key driver of health care consolidation

    In a recent “Meet the Press” appearance, Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) joined a growing number of Republicans who are speaking out against Obamacare. One of his lines of attack: that the Affordable Care Act fueled health care consolidation.

    “What Democrats did 15 years ago was they radically changed all health care in America. They moved all physicians under hospitals. They changed all the reimbursement programs. They shifted everything in,” Lankford said Nov. 9.

    This is one of a collection of Republican talking points related to the ACA that’s been regularly reprised, and there’s a reason for it.

    Democrats have been promised a Senate vote this month on whether to extend the ACA’s enhanced subsidies, set to expire at year’s end. The debate, however, has given Republicans an opportunity to resurface old criticisms and reignite efforts to overhaul or even undo the ACA. One GOP argument is that the sweeping health law fueled industry consolidation, which has led to higher prices and pushed more doctors to sell their practices to hospitals or insurers.

    But industry experts disagree about how much this market trend can be tied to the law known as Obamacare.

    Like everything in health policy, it’s complicated.

    “Most of us live in a different reality,” said Chip Kahn, president and CEO of the Federation of American Hospitals, which supports extending the enhanced tax credits. “Our health system has many challenges, and I can’t say the cost to individuals, to taxpayers, is not an issue. But to say having better coverage for more people made all these problems worse is really a stretch.”

    What’s happened to doctors and hospitals?

    First, some context. The ACA was passed by Congress in 2010, and most of its major provisions became effective in 2014.

    Many health care mergers took place both before and after Obamacare became law, so it’s hard to quantify its effect.

    From 1998 to 2017 — a nearly two-decade period that included the first three years of full ACA implementation — 1,573 hospital mergers took place. An additional 428 hospital and health system mergers were announced from 2018 to 2023, according to a 2024 brief by KFF, a health information nonprofit that includes KFF Health News.

    “The consolidation trend was in place before the ACA and just continued” as hospitals and other entities sought to improve their negotiating power, said Glenn Melnick, who studies hospital economics and is a professor at the University of Southern California’s Price School of Public Policy.

    The KFF brief did not directly address what role the ACA might have played in such mergers, although others have suggested its focus on coordinating care may have led to some of the activity.

    Hospital groups contend that mergers are needed to bolster finances and counter increasing insurer consolidation, and that they can result in cost savings. Others disagree, arguing that many studies show price increases following mergers.

    Even with that trend — and despite what Lankford said — not all doctors now work for hospitals.

    The percentage of physicians who have sold their practices to hospitals or private equity groups continues to rise, with only 42% currently working in private practices, according to the American Medical Association. That’s down from about 60% in 2012, before the ACA’s main provisions took effect.

    Those who sold practices during the past 10 years, according to the AMA, most often cited inadequate payment rates as the reason.

    Others note that many doctors want to be part of a larger group, with more scheduling flexibility and fewer paperwork hassles. Other changes, including the 2009 law known as the HITECH Act, which required hospitals and doctors to boost their use of electronic medical records, added to physicians’ desire to sell, Kahn said.

    “Physicians today, with their heavy debt load, are not looking to go into the old individual practice anymore,” Kahn said. “That didn’t happen because of the ACA.”

    Another key dynamic driving this market trend is market leverage, which was happening anyway, say some policy experts.

    Hospitals “got control of the physician groups for contracting purposes,” Melnick said.

    When hospitals meet to negotiate with insurers, “they’ll say, ‘We’ll drop out of your network, and we control 30% of the doctors, so they’ll drop out, too.’ It was a leverage play, and it worked,” Melnick said.

    How do insurers fit in?

    Like hospitals, some insurers have been on a buying spree, snapping up doctor practices, for example. Optum, a division of UnitedHealth Group, owns or is affiliated with nearly 10% of the nation’s physicians.

    The health law “triggered an arms race among insurers and hospitals to grow larger and more expensive, leaving patients and small businesses with rising premiums and shrinking options,” said Joel White, president of the Council for Affordable Health Coverage, in testimony before a Senate subcommittee in November. The council touts among its priorities right-leaning issues such as opposing government-run health care and supporting expanded market competition and health savings accounts.

    Again, the insurance question is complex.

    The number of insurers filing annual reports with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners has fluctuated: for example, 949 in 2015 and 1,155 last year.

    But aggregate numbers are only one measure. Several big insurers control large market shares. In one recent analysis that looked across a variety of types of insurance — not just ACA plans — the American Medical Association concluded that most areas are highly concentrated, with about 47% of those markets having one insurer with a commercial market share of 50% or more.

    The AMA says such market power leads to higher premiums and results in reduced payments to doctors.

    As for the marketplaces that offer ACA coverage, the number of insurers has also fluctuated over time, usually because of variations in anticipated premiums and the regulatory landscape, with a national average of nearly eight at the law’s inception, falling to 5.4 in 2018, but rising to nearly 10 nationally in 2025, according to KFF. Because that’s an average, some states, such as Texas, have 15 insurers, while seven states — Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia — and the District of Columbia have only two.

    Premium increases aren’t new either, nor are they hitting only ACA plans.

    In fact, premiums for people buying their own coverage and those for workers who get insurance through an employer have almost always risen yearly — often above inflation levels —a trend that predates the ACA.

    Critics of the ACA note that premiums in the individual market were lower before the law kicked in. However, critics often don’t note how different pre-ACA coverage was for people in the individual market, which could make it less expensive. Before the law, for example, insurers could reject people with preexisting health conditions, charge women more than men, and set annual or lifetime dollar limits on coverage. After 2014, that wasn’t allowed in ACA plans.

    Average premiums for the benchmark “silver” ACA plans have gone from $481 nationally in 2018 to $497 in 2025, according to KFF. The average monthly premium jumps to $625 next year, partly because of insurers’ expectations of higher costs and a decline in enrollment if Congress does not extend the more generous tax subsidies. Those are averages, and prices will vary across the country depending on such things as age, location, and household income.

    The conservative Paragon Health Institute notes that rising premiums mean larger taxpayer-supported subsidies. Deductibles, too, have gone up, with people on “bronze” plans, which have the lowest premiums, facing an average $7,476 deductible next year, compared with $5,113 in 2014.

    The cost-consolidation link

    A 2025 Health and Human Services report, issued during the last days of the Biden administration, found the trend of highly concentrated hospital services in most metropolitan statistical areas had started before and continued after the ACA. Prices also rose. The report, which noted the role of private equity firms in consolidation efforts, also cited studies showing physicians increasingly merged — with one another, hospitals, or private equity-backed firms.

    That’s important because the largest share of health care spending in the U.S. goes to hospital care, with physician services not far behind.

    For Kahn, at the hospital federation, the real reason behind the mergers is financial: Many hospitals, he says, had to expand their reach or risk going under.

    “Many health economists are my best friends,” Kahn said, “but they have tunnel vision when they look at the health system.” Hospitals must have sufficient revenue streams to cover the cost of patient care, he said, and consolidation is their way to respond “to all of the burdens and requirements and demands” they face.

    While there is no question that health care consolidation has happened, much of it predated the ACA, Melnick said.

    “At the end of the day, the ACA market never became that big to drive the overall restructuring of the industry,” he said. “A lot of what they are attributing to the ACA would have happened anyway.”

    KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

    Subscribe to KFF Health News’ free Morning Briefing.

    This article first appeared on KFF Health News and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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  • Fact-checking Democratic ACA subsidies talking points

    The government shutdown failed to resolve differences between Republicans and Democrats over policies related to Obamacare’s affordability.

    Republicans refused to go along with Democrats’ proposal to extend expiring COVID-19-era subsidies for people who buy their insurance on the Affordable Care Act marketplace. The Senate voted Nov. 10 to fund the government through January without voting on the subsidies. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said the Senate would vote later this year on extending them. 

    Most people who use Affordable Care Act marketplaces obtain subsidies. 

    In 2021, then-President Joe Biden signed legislation that made the subsidies more generous. The legislation reduced the maximum amount purchasers would have to pay for coverage and enabled households with incomes higher than 400% of the federal poverty level to receive subsidies. Previously, the subsidies were capped at 400% of the poverty limit for a household, which in 2024 was $60,240 for a one-person household. 

    Congress renewed these enhanced subsidies in 2022 through the end of 2025.

    The subsidies proved popular; the number of people receiving them increased from about 11 million to more than 24 million people, the vast majority of whom receive an enhanced premium tax credit.

    If enhanced tax credits expire, many enrollees will continue to qualify for smaller tax credits, while others will lose eligibility altogether.

    President Donald Trump, who unsuccessfully pledged to repeal and replace Obamacare, said he wants to give people money to buy their own health insurance, without providing details. 

    Democrats will likely campaign on Obamacare costs through the midterms, particularly if Republicans vote against extending the subsidies in the coming weeks. We fact-checked some recent Democratic talking points. 

    “The five states that are most impacted by a failure to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits are West Virginia, Wyoming, Alaska, Mississippi and Tennessee.”  — Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., at a Nov. 10 press conference

    This is accurate, according to one analysis of premium payment increases for consumers choosing plans in the same tier, without the enhanced subsidies. Jeffries was citing the liberal Center for American Progress Action Fund.

    “Most impacted” can mean many things, not just premium spike size. Florida has 4.7 million people enrolled in Affordable Care Act plans in 2025, more than any other state. About 97% of enrollees receive a discount that makes their plans cheaper.

    One analysis puts Texas ahead of Florida for the overall number of people who will not enroll in ACA plans in 2026 if the subsidies expire. Texas has a larger state population.

    “Forty-five percent of the people, of the Americans, who are going to lose health care or be at risk of losing health care if they don’t on the other side of the aisle extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits, 45% of them are registered Republicans.” — Jeffries at a Nov. 10 press conference

    Jeffries’ statistic for Republican voters affected by the ACA subsidies comes from a May poll by KFF, a leading health policy think tank.

    The poll found Republicans make up 45% of adults who purchase their own health insurance, most of whom do so through the ACA marketplaces. That included 31% who defined themselves as MAGA Republicans and 14% called themselves non-MAGA Republicans. (The survey defined MAGA Republicans as Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who support Trump’s Make America Great Again movement.) About 35% enrolled through the marketplace were Democrats and 20% were independents.

    The rates were lower for Medicaid enrollees, KFF found: 27% self-identified as MAGA or non-MAGA Republicans.

    Jeffries predicted that this group is at risk of losing health care entirely, but we don’t yet know exactly how many would drop their insurance because of rising costs.

    The Congressional Budget Office expects 2 million more people would be uninsured in 2026, increasing to 3.8 million in 2034 and 2025. More people are likely to drop ACA coverage but not become uninsured, for example changing to a job that offers health insurance.

    “If this is the so-called ‘deal,’ then I will be a no. That’s not a deal. It’s an unconditional surrender that abandons the 24 million Americans whose health care premiums are about to double.” — Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., Nov. 9 X post

    This is largely accurate.

    Torres told us he was referring to a Sept. 30 analysis by KFF that found that the expiration of the credits “is estimated to more than double what subsidized enrollees currently pay annually for premiums — a 114% increase from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026.” About 24 million people are on the marketplace, and most receive subsidies.

    Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., went further Nov. 9 when he said ending the subsidies “raises health care premiums for over 20 million Americans by doubling, and in some cases tripling and quadrupling” the cost. 

    Many low-income people would see their out-of-pocket premiums increase from zero to hundreds of dollars, said Larry Levitt, KFF’s executive vice president for health policy.

    “It would cost $38 billion to extend ACA credits next year and prevent millions of people from losing their healthcare. Reminder: Trump sent $40 billion to Argentina for no reason.” — Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., Nov. 7 on Bluesky 

    Lofgren’s statement about the cost of ACA enhanced subsidies is in the ballpark, but she exaggerated what the federal government sent to Argentina.

    Extending the enhanced subsidies would cost about $350 billion over a decade including about $38 billion next year, the center-right American Action Forum found.

    Other estimates are lower or higher. Levitt told us the net effect on the federal budget in 2027, which is a more complete year, is $31.9 billion.

    Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the libertarian Cato Institute, said factoring in direct costs, interest payments and spending in other programs averages around $48.8 billion more each year. 

    Regarding Argentina, Lofgren was referring to the Trump administration’s announcement in October that it agreed to a $20 billion currency swap and facilitated $20 billion in private financing. 

    The funds to support Argentina couldn’t be shifted to health care credits. The U.S. Treasury dedicates a pool of funds  for onetime U.S. intervention in foreign exchange markets.

    Chief Correspondent Louis Jacobson contributed to this article.

    RELATED: Government shutdown fact-checks about SNAP, WIC, Obamacare and immigration

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  • Orlando Rep. Maxwell Frost slams Senate funding deal offering ‘empty promises’



    U.S. House Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL) advocates for the extension of subsidies to make healthcare more affordable. (Nov. 3, 2025) Credit: McKenna Schueler

    After seven weeks of a federal government shutdown that has led to flight cancellations and delays in food assistance to families, the U.S. Senate approved a funding agreement Monday that could reopen the government if approved by the House and signed into law by President Trump. 

    Democratic U.S. Congressman Maxwell Frost of Orlando, however, sharply rebuked the controversial deal for offering “empty promises.”

    “This funding fight was supposed to be about addressing the urgency of rising health care costs for 20 million Americans brought on by this administration’s failed policies and Republican inaction. Instead, the Senate gave up in exchange for an empty promise for a vote on extending current health care subsidies, ” Frost said in a statement, echoing the concerns of other Democrats who have described the deal as “lousy” and “complete BS.”

    “Americans don’t need empty promises,” Frost added. “They need to be able to afford their health care premiums.”

    Seven Democrats and one independent U.S. Senator joined Republicans (including Florida’s two U.S. Senators) in voting 60-40 to approve the funding agreement Monday, which would effectively reopen the federal government. Just one Republican, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, voted against the deal, according to the Washington Post. It’s expected to head to the U.S House for a vote later this week.

    Rep. Frost, a progressive Democrat from Orlando, says he’s a firm “no” on the deal, noting it fails to directly address the expiration of Affordable Care Act tax credits at the end of the year. The expiration of the COVID-era tax credits could cause the monthly healthcare premiums of roughly 22 million Americans, including nearly 200,000 people in Frost’s district, to more than double. Locals who rely on their health insurance for life-saving medication are already sounding the alarm.

    “This deal fails our communities who elected us to stand up for them, but the fight isn’t over,” Frost shared Monday. “I believe that in the richest country on the face of the Earth, families deserve to get the care they need when they need it — and I will fight like hell to make that a reality,” he said.

    The sort-of bipartisan deal reached between U.S. senators over the weekend offers no guaranteed extension of the enhanced ACA tax subsidies, which have helped make healthcare more affordable for millions of low- and middle-income Americans who don’t receive health insurance through an employer, including small business owners and the self-employed.

    The deal approved Monday would reverse the layoffs of thousands of federal workers during the early days of the shutdown, fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) through September, and offer stopgap funding for most of the federal government’s operations through Jan. 30, according to the Post. 

    Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has also reportedly promised a vote by mid-December on whether to extend the ACA tax subsidies. But that promise falls short of the guaranteed extension that Democrats have been holding the line for over the last 42 days.

    “People need healthcare, damn it,” U.S. Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT) told Axios. “Not some lame promise about a mythical future vote.”

    The shutdown is now the longest in U.S. history. It’s left hundreds of thousands of federal employees either furloughed or working without pay, including TSA officers and air traffic controllers who are considered essential to government operations. 

    The air traffic control system already faced a staffing shortage of roughly 3,000 controllers prior to the government shutdown. Now, the lack of pay afforded to controllers working 10-hour shifts during the shutdown has caused even greater staffing shortages, leading to flight delays and cancellations at airports across the U.S., including Orlando International Airport.

    “For decades, air traffic controllers have held the line through staffing shortages, outdated equipment, hiring freezes, terrorist attacks on September 11th, pandemics and every crisis that this country has lived through,” said Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, a union that represents nearly 20,000 aviation safety professionals. 

    “They have kept their focus, their composure and their commitment to safety, but now they must focus on childcare instead of traffic flows, food for their families instead of runway separation,” Daniels noted during a press conference Monday. “This is not politics,” he added. “This is not ideology. This is the erosion of the safety margin the flying public never sees, but [that] America relies on every single day.”

    This strain of the government shutdown on air travel, as Thanksgiving and the winter holidays approach, has added significant pressure to Congress to reach a deal to reopen the government. So has the unprecedented delay of SNAP benefits that help 42 million Americans, including nearly three million Floridians, buy groceries for themselves and their families. 

    Although the Trump administration has said they have the money to fund SNAP for November, the administration has appealed court orders to do so, agreeing only to fund partial benefits.

    “The record here shows that the government sat on its hands for nearly a month, unprepared to make partial payments, while people who rely on SNAP received no benefits a week into November and counting,” an appeals court said Sunday.

    The seven Democrats who caved and joined Republicans in voting through the funding agreement Monday are all years away from re-election. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (who voted against the deal, despite playing a key role in negotiations) is consequently facing calls to resign from some fellow Democrats and progressive groups like MoveOn and Our Revolution over his handling of the shutdown. 

    “Senator Schumer is no longer effective and should be replaced. If you can’t lead the fight to stop healthcare premiums from skyrocketing for Americans, what will you fight for?” progressive Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA) wrote in a post on X.

    The Florida Democratic Party also blasted the Senate’s funding deal, opting to blame Republicans rather than any of the Democrats (or Schumer) who were complicit in its passage.

    “A temporary deal to end the shutdown without healthcare is not a real solution,” said FDP chair Nikki Fried in a statement.

    “Republicans have once again betrayed the American people,” she argued. “This deal will force millions of Americans to choose between medicine or groceries. It doesn’t have to be this way. A deal without health care is unacceptable — plain and simple.”

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    Expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits have been central to the funding fight behind the federal government shutdown

    Florida has the fourth largest SNAP enrollment nationwide with 2.94 million relying on the assistance for food security

    The court agreed with the Department of Homeland Security that the case should be paused until government attorneys can work again.





    McKenna Schueler
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  • 3 ways healthcare is changing in Miami: cancer hub, vaccines, Obamacare

    The healthcare landscape in Miami is shifting.

    One major development: the opening of the new cancer hub in Miami Beach announced by Mount Sinai Medical Center, which aims to integrate various aspects of cancer care under one roof.

    Another significant change is happening in public health policy, as Florida considers removing vaccine mandates.

    On the policy front, changes to Obamacare tax credits could influence Medicaid coverage gaps in Florida. As the credits risk expiration, nearly 4.5 million Floridians face threats to their current health insurance plans, partly due to the state’s reluctance to expand Medicaid.

    Catch up with our recent coverage below.

    View of the Irma and Norman Braman Comprehensive Cancer Center, building that is under construction, at the Mount Sinai’s, Miami Beach Campus, in Miami, on Friday August 29, 2025. By Pedro Portal

    NO. 1: A NEW CANCER HUB IS OPENING IN MIAMI BEACH SOON. HERE’S WHAT PATIENTS CAN EXPECT

    Mount Sinai’s new Miami Beach cancer hub is nearly ready. | Published August 30, 2025 | Read Full Story by Michelle Marchante



    State Surgeon General of Florida, Joseph A. Ladapo, speaks during the Miami-Dade County Commission meeting on Tuesday, April 1, 2025, at the Stephen P. Clark Government Center in downtown Miami, Fla. While considered helpful in preventing tooth decay by dentists, the practice has come under fire by some for alleged health risks. The bill passed to take the fluoride out of drinking water even though federal agencies like the American Dental Association says it could be harmful. By Alie Skowronski

    NO. 2: FLORIDA WANTS TO REMOVE VACCINE MANDATES. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR MIAMI-DADE SCHOOLS?

    Just weeks into the new school year, Florida’s surgeon general Joseph Ladapo announced the state is going to be working to eliminate all vaccine mandates. | Published September 3, 2025 | Read Full Story by Clara-Sophia Daly, Michelle Marchante



    A general view of the Florida Capitol on Monday, March 3, 2025, in Tallahassee, Fla. By Photo by Matias J. Ocner

    NO. 3: WHEN OBAMACARE TAX CREDITS EXPIRE, DON’T EXPECT MEDICAID TO FILL THE GAP IN FLORIDA

    As Congress fights over the future of Affordable Care Act subsidies, the healthcare of millions of Floridians is on the line. | Published October 17, 2025 | Read Full Story by Romy Ellenbogen

    The summary above was drafted with the help of AI tools and edited by journalists in our News division. All stories listed were reported, written and edited by McClatchy journalists.

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  • Sen. Durbin hopeful deal can be reached amid shutdown, insurance premium increases

    CHICAGO (WLS) — Open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act begins Saturday for residents in Illinois and most states. Increases in premiums are expected to be the biggest since the ACA, known as ObamaCare, became law more than a decade ago.

    A trip to the hospital may become unaffordable for millions of people who may become priced out of their health insurance. Half a million Illinoisans rely on health insurance through the Affordable Care Act, including Jessica Kazaniwskyj and her husband, who are small business owners. Currently, their insurance costs them $2,000 a month.

    ABC7 Chicago is now streaming 24/7. Click here to watch

    “We just got a letter saying it would be $4,000, yeah, would be our new premium,” Kazaniwskyj said. “So that’s double, yeah, double. That’s not sustainable. That’s not sustainable for anybody.”

    Inflation and the elimination of ACA subsidies and tax credits by the Trump administration are causing premiums to double and triple.

    According to state of Illinois statistics gathered by Sen. Dick Durbin’s office, the monthly average increase for families in Cook County is $215. That is $2,580 annually, appearing to hit rural counties harder. Effingham County premiums may jump by an average of $844 monthly, or $10,128 annually.

    “We believe that we need to act on this and do it now. It’s an emergency situation for many families,” Durbin said.

    For the past month, the ACA has been at the center of the government shutdown. Democrats are willing to open the government if Republicans agree to negotiate a deal on extending the ACA subsidies. Republicans say, open the government first and they’ll negotiate later.

    “All the Democrats have to do is say, ‘Let’s go.’ I mean they don’t have to do anything,” President Donald Trump said.

    But, Durbin says Democrats don’t trust Republicans to keep their word. Durbin says both parties are talking, and he is hopeful something may break soon, especially since Americans are starting to learn about their premium increases.

    “Republicans who are honest about it privately say this is a mess we’ve got to solve. And I agree with them,” Durbin said.

    Kazaniwskyj says if something is not done, she may be forced to drop her insurance

    “This is a human issue. This is not a partisan issue. This is not a political issue. You are messing with people’s lives; you’re messing with people’s health,” Kazaniwskyj said.

    If subsidies are not extended, Durbin and other health experts say there is a chance between 30-40% of people enrolled in the ACA will drop their health insurance because they can no longer afford it.

    Copyright © 2025 WLS-TV. All Rights Reserved.

    Sarah Schulte

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  • Florida is one of ‘hardest hit’ states if ACA credits expire

    As the government shutdown entered its third week, Democrats continued to withhold their support for a government funding bill unless Republicans agree to extend expiring Affordable Care Act marketplace subsidies. 

    A Democratic lawmaker said Florida will be affected by the expiring subsidies more than any other state after the Nov. 1 ACA enrollment start.

    “FL will be HARDEST HIT by Obamacare cuts in the nation on Nov 1st,” U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, D-Fla., wrote Oct. 13 on X. “4.6 Million Floridians will see HUGE healthcare hikes of 75% or more unless Congress fixes it. The clock is ticking!” 

    Soto, who represents Florida’s 9th Congressional District, which includes eastern Orlando and the cities of Kissimmee and St. Cloud, expanded on his point in an Oct. 12 Orlando Sentinel opinion editorial. “The top 10 Obamacare congressional districts are all in the state,” Soto wrote. “Our district has the second-most enrollment in the nation, with 271,000 people receiving the Premium Tax Credits.”

    Without congressional action, the pandemic-era enhanced ACA credits will expire Dec. 31, and researchers estimate premiums around the U.S. will rise by more than 114% on average for enrollees who use the credits, leading to an estimated 3.8 million more people becoming uninsured over the next decade.

    Health care experts said Soto’s Florida warning is on point.

    “Florida might be tied with Texas in the percentage of enrollment increase since the credits have been in place, but it has always had a lot of people signing up for the ACA,” said Cynthia Cox, vice president of the ACA program at KFF, a health care research think tank. “This might be due to demographics and the kinds of jobs residents have, but Florida would definitely be the top, or tied as the top state affected by these cuts.”

    Soto’s office pointed PolitiFact to Congressional Budget Office and KFF estimates for coverage loss and premium increases if the credits expire.

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    What will happen in Florida if the enhanced ACA tax credits expire?

    Florida has more people enrolled in Affordable Care Act plans than any state — around 4.7 million in 2025. About 97% of enrollees receive a discount that makes their plans cheaper.

    In 2021, then-President Joe Biden signed legislation that made ACA subsidies more generous, by reducing the maximum amount enrollees would have to pay for coverage and enabling households whose incomes were higher than 400% of the federal poverty level to receive the subsidies. Congress renewed these enhanced subsidies in 2022 through the end of 2025, so they are now poised to expire.

    Determining whether Florida would be the “hardest-hit” state if the enhanced credits expire depends on how that is measured. Data shows Florida as one of the top states, if not the top, for the number of people affected.

    “There are different ways to measure the effects,” Cox said. “For instance, if it’s the steepest premium increases for a smaller number of people, that might be West Virginia or Wyoming.”

    An Oct. 14 Washington Post analysis found that Florida has the highest number of people receiving the enhanced credits, which could result in the state bearing the biggest blow, relative to its population, of residents becoming uninsured or experiencing steep premium increases. The analysis puts Texas second. 

    About 8% of ACA enrollees under 65 nationwide use the enhanced credit; but in Florida, the same share is 24% — the highest in the country, The Washington Post found. 

    That disparity is largely because Florida did not expand Medicaid eligibility, making the ACA the main pathway for people with lower incomes to obtain affordable coverage. Many people with ACA coverage are self-employed or work for a small business.

    About 2.4 million Floridians with ACA Marketplace plans in 2025 earn under 138% of the federal poverty limit. 

    “When states expand Medicaid, anyone who makes below 138% of the federal poverty level is eligible for the program, so they’re not on the ACA marketplaces,” Cox said. “In states that didn’t expand Medicaid, like Florida, Texas and Georgia, residents can get ACA coverage and qualify for the enhanced credits.”

    Another study, by the nonpartisan Urban Institute think tank and the Commonwealth Fund health care research organization, put Texas ahead of Florida for the overall number of people who will not enroll in ACA plans in 2026.

    “In terms of absolute numbers of people becoming uninsured, our tables show Texas being hit harder,” said Jessica Banthin, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute’s health policy division and one of the report’s authors. “But in terms of population share, it’s very likely the case that Florida is being hit harder.”

    A KFF analysis found that, in every Florida congressional district, enrollees over age 60 who make just over 400% of the federal poverty level — about $84,600 for two people — will face premiums in 2026 quadruple what they pay now, on average.

    Overall, lower- and middle-income Floridians will feel the brunt of expired subsidies.

    “Especially an older couple who are early retirees who may still have a moderate income,” Cox said. “They won’t have any other option and may see a premium increase of $20,000 because they aren’t eligible for Medicare yet.”

    Floridians with private employer-based insurance may also see indirect effects.

    “If many more people in Florida become uninsured, then hospitals and other providers will face an increase in patients who can no longer pay their medical bills,” said Sabrina Corlette, a research professor at Georgetown University’s Health Policy Institute. “These costs are projected to result in service cutbacks, hospital closures and mergers, particularly in rural areas, which affect everyone.”

    Our ruling

    Soto said Florida will be the “hardest hit” state if ACA enhanced subsidies expire.

    Florida has 4.7 million people enrolled in ACA plans in 2025, more than in any other state. One analysis found that 24% of Florida’s enrollees under age 65 use enhanced subsidies, the highest in the country, compared with 8% of enrollees nationally.

    “Hardest hit” can mean many things. In terms of the share of enrollees relative to a state’s population, Florida is safely one of the most affected states, if not the most affected for people who will see premium increases or become uninsured as a result of higher prices. By raw numbers in another analysis, Texas might be first, because it has a bigger population.

    Experts said other states such as West Virginia may face steeper premium hikes, but for a smaller number of people. 

    Soto’s statement is accurate but needs additional information. We rate it Mostly True.

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  • Shutdown Shows GOP Is Still Obsessed With Obamacare Repeal

    John McCain killing the GOP’s Obamacare repeal bill in 2017.
    Photo: C-SPAN/Youtube

    From the very beginning of the current federal government shutdown, the big question has been whether Democrats can convince Republicans to give them the trophy of an extension of soon-to-expire Obamacare premium subsidies that were enacted in 2021. Democratic optimism on this subject has been based on the belief that Republicans up for reelection next year really don’t want to get blamed for the huge spike in health-insurance premiums that would hit upward of 20 million mostly middle-class Americans if the subsidies expire (with the first flare-up occurring when open enrollment for Obamacare plans begins on November 1). And indeed, Punchbowl News’s soundings of the U.S. House indicate there are “somewhere between 20% and 30% of GOP lawmakers” who are “open to extending” the subsidies.

    But Punchbowl’s reporting also shows why bringing along the the rest of the GOP caucus (which aside from the ever-erratic Marjorie Taylor Greene aren’t going to split the party wide open over this issue) will be extremely difficult. An interview with the No. 2 House Republican, Steve Scalise, served as a reminder that the majority of Republicans don’t just hate the expanded subsidies enacted in 2021, but Obamacare itself, and will be loathe to lift a finger to make it work better:

    I know they’re [Democrats] trying to dump the problems of Obamacare off on everybody, other than the people that actually passed and voted for Obamacare. Those high premiums are a result of Democrat policies. If they really wanted to work with us on lower premiums, there are a lot of bipartisan ideas that you could come to the table and bring and do, and they’ve got to stop fighting the things that have been proven to work, as well.”

    Those bipartisan ideas that Scalise is referring to include association health plans, which allow employers to join together to buy insurance plans, plus health savings accounts.

    Long story short, the “bipartisan ideas” Scalise is touting are the same old tired proposals Republicans have been pushing for more than a decade that would make it easier for insurance companies to cherrypick young and healthy people while leaving older and sicker people a few ways to get really crappy insurance at terrible rates. Yes, Obamacare has gone from being a risky experiment that people happy with their health insurance feared to becoming a generally accepted and even popular way for government to make health care widely available and affordable. But many, perhaps most, Republicans haven’t changed their minds at all. Given half a chance, they’d try again to repeal Obamacare whether or not they had any workable replacement (pro tip: they still don’t!) to offer.

    So very much has happened in the past decade that it’s easy to forget that most middle-aged Republican lawmakers cut their political teeth in the Tea Party era when Obamacare was the Great White Whale for conservatives wrathful about big and intrusive government. The big federal government shutdown of that period, in 2013, was precisely over GOP efforts to blow up Obamacare by defunding its operations. It failed. So when Donald Trump took office with a Republican trifecta in 2017, the very first order of business was Trump 1.0’s version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a budget package whose central feature was repealing Obamacare. That too, failed, which probably made a deep impression on Trump. He quickly turned his attentions to a tax cut and hasn’t tried to do a whole lot on the health-care-policy front since then, other than this year’s Medicaid cuts, which Republicans have denied are cuts at all.

    Trump’s bad experience with Obamacare repeal efforts is the big reason why Democrats think the president himself may impose an Obamacare subsidy deal that enables everyone to reopen the federal government. Nobody doubts his power to do so if he chooses. But no one should doubt that the bulk of Republicans will hate this like sin and won’t accommodate it on their own.


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    Ed Kilgore

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  • Central Florida Dems among lawmakers warning about looming health care crisis



    Credit: via Shutterstock

    Florida has more to lose than any other state if Congress doesn’t extend enhanced premium tax credits for so-called Obamacare coverage.

    That was the message a trio of Democratic members of Congress delivered Tuesday on Day 14 of the government shutdown. At the center of the shutdown is a partisan battle over extending the tax credits to lower the costs of health care coverage. 

    The credits expire at the end of the year. Democrats are holding up government funding to pressure Republicans into extending them. While Republicans have said they are open to talks, they insist Democrats vote to continue government operations until late November.

    “If Trump and Republicans continue to refuse to negotiate our way out of this health care coverage crisis, it’s going to be absolutely brutal, disproportionately for Florida,” said U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Democrat from Weston.

    Florida leads the nation in the number of people who purchase insurance through the federal exchange (healthcare.gov), which was established under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), sometimes called Obamacare. 

    U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data from March show that of the 4.7 million Florida residents with an Obamacare plan in 2025, 4.6 million receive the tax credits.

    Obamacare enrollment for 2026, meanwhile, is set to begin next month.

    “If these credits expire, millions of people will — and thousands of people that we represent,  really, hundreds of  thousands — will face double, triple, or quadruple price hikes in their [health insurance] premiums. That’s not exaggeration or hyperbole. We’ve seen the notices,” said Wasserman Schultz, whose district includes 209,000 Obamacare enrollees, 203,000 of whom receive the tax credits. 

    “We’ve talked to insurance companies and we know that that’s what’s coming,” she added. “And you all know what that really means. Families will be forced to drop coverage, chronic diseases will go undiagnosed, ERs will be flooded.”

    Joining Wasserman Schultz in a Zoom meeting were U.S. Reps. Darren Soto and Maxwell Frost, who said the loss of the enhanced premiums plus Florida’s decision to not expand Medicaid to low-income childless adults will prove devastating.

    Soto said his congressional district has the second highest Obamacare enrollment (271,000) in the nation.

    “And there’s a good reason for that. We have a lot of folks working for small businesses. We have a lot of folks who are independent contractors, and they don’t have access to affordable, employer-based health care, so they’ve gone on the exchange, and the fact that Florida didn’t expand Medicaid only made it more desperate for folks to have to use the ACA exchange,” Soto said.

    He added: “Remember when Donald Trump ran on lowering costs? Well, now he’s running away from lowering costs with this key negotiation.”

    Advanced premium tax credits have been available since passage of the Affordable Care Act. During COVID, Congress agreed to make the premium tax credits more generous. Those enhanced credits lower out-of-pocket costs for the coverage and allow people who earn more money to qualify for the subsidies.

    Only Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas (all of which have lower Obamacare enrollment) have lower average monthly premiums.

    While the battle over the tax credits has been partisan, conservatives including Associated Industries of Florida President and CEO Brewster Bevis, Florida Hospital Association President and CEO Mary Mayhew, President and CEO of Florida Association of Community Health Centers Jonathan Chapman, and President and CEO of the Florida Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Julio Fuentes aligned under the Florida Conservatives for Affordable Health Care moniker and came out in support of their continuation over the summer.

    “I have been around this debate over health care coverage for decades and, while the politics of the ACA have been heated over the years, there should be a unified political voice in support of the federal marketplace and the premiums assistance in Florida,”  Mayhew said during a press conference this summer.

    U.S. Sens. Rick Scott and Ashley Moody both oppose extending the tax credits. Moody’s position could hurt her election bid next year, a public opinion survey conducted by the Tyson Group shows.

    Scott, the multimillionaire former health care executive who launched his political career opposing Obamacare, doubled down on his opposition to the longstanding federal health care law last week on Fox News’ The Sunday Briefing.

    ‘Heartbreaking’

    For his part, Frost said the argument is an extension of the battle this summer over the GOP’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and that he was “proud” that Democrats are “standing strong” on the issue.

    “We are the party of the working class, we’re the party of working people, and we don’t want people’s health care costs to go up anywhere from 50% to 300%. We don’t want millions of people in this country losing their health care, because we believe health care is a human right for every single person in this country, and that’s what we’re fighting for,” he said.

    Frost said his office has asked constituents to share videos of themselves talking about the looming health insurance premium increases they face. His office, he said, has been posting them online.

    One “heartbreaking” story he described involved a woman who said her monthly premiums were about to double.

    “She’s having to cut from her grocery trips. She had to cancel a trip to go see her parents that she hasn’t seen in a long, long time. And a lot of people are considering having to change their housing situation because the rent is too damn high,” Frost said.

    “We have to remember that Donald Trump is throwing us into this healthcare crisis while he’s also thrown us into a grocery store crisis, while he’s also thrown us into a housing crisis, even worse than it ever was before. Everything is so much more expensive.”

    With wages stagnant and costs of living increasing, Frost said, “working people just need a break, and taking away their health care — it’s one of the most inhumane things a person can do.”

    Silence

    Meanwhile, state political leaders to date have been silent on the issue.

    The three Democrats were critical of Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworski and Gov. Ron DeSantis for not warning state residents about the increases.

    “Absolutely,” Soto said when asked whether the governor and insurance commissioner should be making people aware.

    “They can’t hide these numbers. Obviously, people want to know, and they should know, and there’s a duty to tell them ahead of time.”

    Frost said DeSantis and Yaworski are motivated by political considerations.

    “The governor knows that in about a year, he’s going to become pretty irrelevant on the national stage, and he’s trying to find relevancy. He doesn’t want to rub Trump the wrong way. And so instead of looking out for Floridians and what’s best for the people he’s supposed to lead and represent, he’s going to keep his mouth shut and continue to play partisan games,” Frost said.

    OIR presentation

    Meanwhile, OIR Deputy Commissioner for Life and Health Alexis Bakofsy updated the House Health Health Care Facilities & Systems Subcommittee Tuesday afternoon, including news that a statewide average 34% increase in premiums will take effect Jan. 1.

    An OIR slide presentation shows the state expects Obamacare enrollment to “drop significantly during 2026 Open Enrollment with the expiration of enhanced subsidies & Federal Rule implementation.” OIR has a demographic breakout but Bakofsy said she didn’t have the information available with her.

    She did tell committee members that 95% of Obamacare enrollees live in a county with at least four carriers. Monroe County is the only area in the state with only one health insurer offering a Obamacare plan through the exchange, the result of Aetna exiting the market (in Florida and nationally.)

    Bakofsy repeatedly said Florida consumers should shop, given the changes that are occurring.

    “When I say ‘shop’ I mean understand how you’re going to be impacted both on the exchange but also what are your options off exchange. Every consumer is going to be different to the extent that we can provide you with resources so that they can go. I would hate for someone to come to Dec. 15 and realize that the plan that they had, the plan they want to keep, is no longer available.”

    Bakofsy also told members that the OIR plans to collect data on enrollment and claims starting next year to ensure the office can effectively track participation in the market.

    The OIR had not publicized the steep rate increases, a fact that Bakofsy acknowledged and which irked committee member and state Rep. Robin Bartleman, a Democrat from Weston.

    Bartleman said many residents haven’t even received notice from insurance companies warning them of the rate increases (Florida law requires the notice to go out 45 day in advance. Bakofsy said that gives the carriers until mid-November to send the notices).

    “So, what? What is your plan? Because everyone this committee, we’re going to be left holding that ball, and we had nothing to do with this. But you work for the state. You work for the governor. What are you going to do, because it’s not just low-income people or minority people. I can give you the numbers of every person in this community and how many people in your district aren’t going to be able to afford health care insurance. What can you do to help us, help Floridians get this information out?”

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    Florida has more to lose than any other state if Congress doesn’t extend enhanced premium tax credits for Obamacare coverage, Democrats argue

    Disney argued a strike by any of its employees would violate a contract the company has with the union covering its workers

    Alex Kelly discussed what he said was a ‘huge challenge’ in getting young people interested in working in a skilled labor environment





    Christine Sexton, Florida Phoenix
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  • What’s Really Behind the Government Shutdown: The Same Reason Employer Health Costs Could Soar

    As the government shutdown nears its first full week and enters week two, lawmakers have made little headway in reaching an agreement that addresses Democrats’ public, frequently aired concerns over skyrocketing healthcare premiums hurtling towards the entire electorate.

    The shutdown is largely a fight over healthcare, because the enhanced subsidies that help people obtain coverage under plans approved by Obamacare are set to expire at the end of the year. That will cause health premiums for millions of Americans to soar. These subsidies, created as part of the original 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA), were extended during the pandemic, cutting healthcare coverage costs for qualifying plan purchasers among the more than 24 million Americans insured through the ACA marketplace this year. 

    While these subsidies were a temporary fix, they’ve since become embedded in how the individual marketplace functions, according to Mariam Eatedali, a vice president at Edelman’s public and government affairs team. And if they disappear, the ripple effects are unlikely to be contained.

    “Employer health plans often feel indirect pressure when individual market costs rise,” Eatedali says.  “The marketplace is recalibrating and waiting just ahead of enrollments beginning on November 1 to see what long-term direction Congress takes.”

    But Congress still lacks direction, since bitterly divided lawmakers have failed to ink a plan on the subsidies, plus cuts made to Medicaid over the summer. For those taking bets, the consensus appears to be that a longer shutdown may be in store. Odds on Kalshi, a popular online betting platform, crept to 64 percent for those believing the shutdown would last more than 15 days as of late Tuesday afternoon.

    At the same time, millions of Americans are expected to get a costly surprise in the next few weeks as letters are mailed out telling them how much more their health premiums will be in 2026. Analysis from KFF, a nonprofit specializing in health policy research, shows that the average monthly premium paid by Americans could climb to $1,904, up from the average of $888 paid this year. That’s a 114 percent increase that will hit people overnight.

    About 20 percent of small businesses have relied on the ACA to offer health insurance to their workforce, according to a 2024 report from the Treasury Department. And roughly 164 million receive their health insurance through employer-sponsored plans, according to KFF. 

    If Congress fails to to extend these subsidies, it’s likely a chain reaction would impact prices for employer-sponsored plans, according to Virgil Bretz, co-founder and CEO of MacroHealth, a Seattle-based health analytics and technology company.

    “[P]ayers have to be ready to accept higher reimbursement demands and renegotiate contracts and implement tighter cost control strategies for their employees, and then for the providers themselves, they are going to start having to make decisions on their own viability,” he says.

    Time is the obvious pressure cooker element. Not only are letters about premiums going out soon, but the federal shutdown is already stalling paychecks for 750,000 federal workers — and the Trump administration on Tuesday suggested those who are furloughed may not be eligible for the back pay they typically receive when a shutdown ends. 

    So what’s usually a partisan issue is starting to garner support across the political aisle. Even those who are seldom sympathetic to Democratic interests are starting to speak out about the rising premiums. 

    “I’m going to go against everyone on this issue because when the tax credits expire this year my own adult children’s insurance premiums for 2026 are going to DOUBLE, along with all the wonderful families and hard-working people in my district,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) wrote Tuesday in a post published on X. 

    President Donald Trump signaled on Monday that he’s open to negotiating with Democrats on the subsidies.

    Melissa Angell

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  • Fact-check: GOP, Dem government shutdown talking points

    In 2013, then-businessman and reality TV star Donald Trump shared his vision on Fox News about the role a president should play in a shutdown: “You have to be nice and be angry and be wild and cajole and do all sorts of things, but you have to get a deal.”

    Now as president, Trump has taken a different approach. After failing to reach a bipartisan agreement, he mocked Democrats by posting an expletive-laced video generated by artificial intelligence and set to mariachi music falsely showing U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries wearing a sombrero and U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer saying that “nobody likes Democrats anymore,” so the party is seeking favor with “illegal aliens.”

    Welcome to the 2025 government shutdown. 

    At PolitiFact, we have fact-checked lawmakers’ and pundits’ statements about government shutdowns for more than a decade. When Congress can’t reach a funding agreement, both sides of the political aisle whip up talking points about what a shutdown means for the economy, immigration, worker paychecks, disaster response and services for low-income families. The blame is nearly always placed on the other party.

    PolitiFact is here to help you cut through the spin.

    Sign up for PolitiFact texts

    A reminder: Republicans control the presidency and both chambers of Congress. But passing legislation to extend government funding at current levels would require, under longstanding rules, more than a half dozen Democrats to side with Republicans in order to reach the 60-vote threshold to advance to a vote. This gives Democrats some negotiating leverage, which they are seeking to use in the spending fight.

    It’s Day 1 of the shutdown, and here’s our round-up of fact-checks. Spot a statement about the shutdown you want fact-checked? Email [email protected].

    Social services

    Women, Infant and Children program will “not be funded.”— House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said in Sept. 29 remarks to reporters.

    Johnson omits that enrollees will still likely get services, at least initially. But much depends on how long the shutdown lasts.

    The Agriculture Department’s shutdown plan said its Women, Infants and Children program, which provides food to low-income families, shall continue operations “subject to the availability of funding.”  WIC has 6.9 million participants. 

    WIC should be able to continue for at least one week, said Alison Hard, National WIC Association policy director. After that, operations will vary by state, depending on their funds.

    During a shutdown, state WIC programs have options to temporarily fill the funding gap including various USDA sources, state money and requesting early rebate payments from their contracted infant formula manufacturers.

    Past shutdowns

    “Back in 2013, Trump said it was the President’s job to negotiate and avoid a shutdown.” — Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., in a Sept. 29 X post

    That’s an accurate paraphrase of Trump’s remarks. 

    In an Oct. 7, 2013, interview with then-Fox News host Greta Van Susteren, Trump criticized then-President Barack Obama for not being a dealmaker during the shutdown. In full, he said:

    “You have to get everybody in a room. You have to be a leader. The president has to lead. He has to get (the Speaker of the House) and everybody else in a room, and they have to make a deal. You have to be nice and be angry and be wild and cajole and do all sorts of things, but you have to get a deal.”

    Trump made similar remarks in a September 2013 “Fox & Friends” phone interview: “Problems start from the top, and they have to get solved from the top, and the president’s the leader, and he’s got to get everybody in a room, and he’s got to lead.”

    A tourist photographs a sign announcing that the Library of Congress is closed, on the first day of a partial government shutdown, Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025, in Washington. (AP)

    Health care

    “Republicans are spiking health insurance premiums by 75% for everyday Americans” if they don’t extend enhanced ACA subsidies. — Rep Katherine Clark, D-Mass., in a Sept. 12 X post.

    Mostly True.

    If the Republican-controlled Congress does not extend Affordable Care Act enhanced subsidies before they expire at the end of this year, enrollees will have to pay more.

    A KFF analysis of federal data found that the average increase in out-of-pocket coverage cost for enrollees would be 79%, with state-by-state average increases ranging from 49% to 195%.

    This cost increase would come from a combination of insurance premium increases and the disappearance of subsidies, rather than from “spiking health insurance premiums” alone.

    More than two weeks after Clark’s statement — and after we published the fact check — KFF produced a revised figure for average increases based on new data: 114%.

    “Democrats so-called proposal is a partisan wish list with a $1.5 trillion spending increase tacked onto a four-week funding bill.” — Johnson, in a Sept. 29 press release. 

    The Republican talking point misses context about the Democrats’ proposal.

    The Sept. 17 Democratic proposal latches government funding through Oct. 31, known as a continuing resolution, to some Democratic priorities, including health care assistance and limiting Trump’s ability to claw back funds previously approved by Congress.

    The bill calls for permanently extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that were passed in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic and extended in 2022. Those are set to expire Dec. 31. The Democratic bill would also reverse cuts to Medicaid and other health programs that Republicans enacted in their signature tax and spending legislation.

    The Democrats’ measure would restore funding for public broadcasting that Republicans nixed in July and includes over $320 million for security for lawmakers, the executive branch and the Supreme Court. (Republicans have proposed $88 million in security funding in their resolution bill.)

    The bill also contains mandates for how the Trump administration can spend money and would hinder the White House’s recent attempt to cancel almost $5 billion in foreign aid.

    The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a group that’s hawkish on the deficit, said in a Sept. 18 press release that Democrats’ proposal in its entirety would add $1.5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.

    “The (continuing resolution) itself — the part that funds the government — would not add $1.5 trillion to the debt, but the bill that Democrats have proposed includes other provisions that would,” Chris Towner, the group’s policy director, wrote in an email. “The bill repeals the health spending cuts that were included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which would cost about $1.1 trillion over a decade to repeal.” 

    Towner also said the Democrats’ provision to make the enhanced ACA subsidies permanent would cost about $350 billion over a decade.

    People take photos with a sign announcing that the Library of Congress is closed, on the first day of a partial government shutdown, Oct. 1, 2025, in Washington. (AP)

    If enhanced subsidies are not extended, people with insurance through the Affordable Care Act will see their premiums rise “twice as much in the rural areas.” — Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., in a Sept. 28 interview on CBS “Face the Nation.” 

    Mostly True. 

    There are at least two ways to interpret Klobuchar’s statement: that she was comparing rural enrollees’ costs with people living elsewhere, or comparing their costs with what they paid before.

    Klobuchar’s office told PolitiFact that the senator was referring to rural enrollees seeing increases that were double what they had paid before, and that interpretation aligns with what Klobuchar has said in other settings.

    An analysis by the Century Foundation, a progressive think tank, found that out-of-pocket insurance costs would increase on average in rural counties from $713 to $1,473 — a 107% increase, or slightly more than a doubling.

    Comparing rural enrollees’ cost increases with people elsewhere, amounts to a disproportionately large increase for rural areas, but it’s not twice as much.

    Enrollees in rural counties would see average out-of-pocket losses of $760 from expiring enhanced subsidies, compared with $624 for all counties and $593 for urban counties. That’s 22% more for rural enrollees compared to all others, and 28% more compared with urban enrollees. 

    Government workers

    “If the government shuts down, members of Congress still get paid. The janitors never get paid.” — Daniel Koh on The People’s Cabinet podcast episode Sept. 29. 

    Mostly True.

    Members of the House and Senate continue to get paid during a shutdown. Federal law says that federal employees get back pay, but the law does not extend that to contractors, a group that includes many janitors. Some private employers with federal contracts may find ways to pay their employees, but there is nothing in federal law that requires it.

    The U.S. Capitol dome and a traffic turn signal are seen from Pennsylvania Avenue, Oct. 1, 2025, in Washington. (AP)

    “FEMA won’t be funded” during hurricane season because of the shutdown. — Johnson in Sept. 29 remarks to reporters.

    Johnson was correct that Congress had not agreed on FEMA funding, but a Department of Homeland Security shutdown procedures plan estimates that 84% of FEMA employees will continue working. (DHS oversees FEMA.)

    “Bottom line: hurricanes don’t care about politics. FEMA will still respond. But recovery will stall if Congress can’t do its job,” said Craig Fugate, who led FEMA during President Barack Obama’s administration after leading Florida’s emergency management under then-Republican Gov. Jeb Bush. “This isn’t new — both parties own the blame.”

    The agency’s recovery efforts are most at risk, Fugate said, because they depend on how much money remains in the Disaster Relief Fund. “Those dollars aren’t tied to the shutdown, but they usually run low this time of year. Normally Congress passes a continuing resolution to add money. A shutdown means that doesn’t happen. That slows recovery projects, not the immediate response.”

    The fund had about $2.3 billion at the end of August, which is considered low. 

    RELATED: Trump has defied norms on executive power. What actions could he take amid a government shutdown?

    RELATED: Fact-check: Past government shutdowns cost the U.S. economy billions

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  • US government shuts down with funding deal out of reach on Capitol Hill

    (CNN) — The federal government has officially shut down after a deadlocked Congress failed to pass a funding measure to keep the lights on – and no one inside the Capitol knows what will happen next.

    A weekslong stalemate between Republicans and Democrats over enhanced Obamacare subsidies has turned into the first government shutdown since 2019. Leaders of both parties are privately and publicly adamant that they will not be blamed for the funding lapse. Republicans insist Democrats need to simply agree to extend current funding for another seven weeks. But Democrats refuse to do so without major concessions for lending their votes to pass any funding measure in the Senate.

    Senators left the Capitol on Tuesday night in a state of deep uncertainty about how long the shutdown could last. The Senate is on track to vote again late Wednesday morning on the same GOP funding plan — which Republican leaders have vowed to put on the floor day after day until enough Democrats yield and agree to reopen the government. But many Democrats have declared publicly they will not relent, even as President Donald Trump and his budget office have ramped up threats to use the shutdown to further shrink the size of government — in some cases permanently.

    “It’s going to be very harmful for working people,” a visibly exasperated GOP Sen. Josh Hawley told CNN moments after Democrats blocked the bill. “I don’t know how it ends. They don’t know how it ends,” he said. “You’re asking millions of people to pay a really high price.”

    In the Democratic party, the pressure is now on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to keep more of his members from yielding to the GOP pressure campaign to support their seven-week funding bill and agree to negotiate later on the Obamacare subsidies. That task will become tougher with every day of a shutdown, particularly as Trump has threatened to cancel programs favored by Democrats. Inside the party, there’s growing concern about the damage that the White House budget office could cause across the country that can’t be easily reversed by Congress.

    Asked if he’s concerned that the White House could do permanent damage to the government, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse told CNN: “Of course, who wouldn’t be? We have a madman in charge.”

    He said Democrats now need to “make sure that Trump is held responsible for all of that, pays the price for it.”

    Some cracks have begun to show: Two more members flipped their positions to back the GOP bill on Tuesday night in the final vote before a shutdown: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and Sen. Angus King of Maine, who caucuses with Democrats. Democratic Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania also backed the GOP bill and has criticized his party’s strategy during the shutdown fight.

    At least two other Democrats appeared to be seriously contemplating their vote on the floor Tuesday — which Republicans took as another sign of weakening in the Democratic party’s stance.

    Senior Democrats had long conversations with Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan, both of New Hampshire, on the floor before they ultimately voted with Schumer and the rest of their party. After Shaheen cast her vote, she went straight to Senate Republican Leader John Thune and spoke with him privately for several minutes.

    Asked later about what appeared to be extensive lobbying ahead of her vote: Shaheen told reporters: “No, I was just having conversations with other people who are thinking long and hard about how we move forward.”

    She added that she ultimately decided to vote against the bill to force Republicans into talks on ACA subsidies: “I thought getting this done so that we can now hopefully get back to the negotiating table was the best approach.”

    The beefed up premium subsidies, which were first approved as part of a Biden administration Covid-19 rescue package in 2021 and later extended, make Obamacare coverage more affordable for lower-income Americans and enable more middle class households to qualify for assistance.

    They spurred a record 24 million people to sign up for policies for 2025. If the enhanced subsidies are allowed to lapse at year’s end, premiums are expected to skyrocket by 75%, on average, for 2026, according to KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group.

    Meanwhile, GOP leaders insisted there are other Democrats who are anxious about a shutdown and want to find an off-ramp to the looming crisis.

    “There are Democrats who are very unhappy,” Thune told reporters Tuesday night, adding that he is “having conversations” with some Democrats that he declined to name. “There are others out there I think who don’t want to shut down the government but are being put in a position by their leadership that ought to make all of them very uncomfortable. Tonight is evidence, there is some movement there.”

    Schumer, however, was adamant that the American people would see Republicans as causing the shutdown — not his own party — because of the looming health care cliff: “At midnight, the American people will blame them for bringing the government to a halt.”

    But asked by CNN whether he can guarantee that nine of his Democrats would not cross over and vote with Republicans, the New York Democrat did not answer.

    “Our guarantee is to the American people. We’re going to fight as hard as we can for their health care, plain and simple,” Schumer said, when pressed about the GOP’s plan to put up the same funding plan again and again until enough Democrats yield.

    Democratic Sen. Mazie Hirono of Hawaii was hopeful but also doubtful pressure to cut a deal will build on Republicans from their own constituents who will face higher health care costs when their enhanced subsidies expire at the end of this year.

    “Let’s hope that they come around to the fact that they’re hurting a lot of their own constituents by not negotiating on the health care issue,” she said. “But you never know, because they apparently don’t care.”

    GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — who is seen as a potential dealmaker on any ACA subsidies deal — told reporters that she believes there still is room to negotiate on health care.

    “I think we do have to talk about the impending cliff that we’re looking at with the premium tax credits. What that’s going to look like, I think, is absolutely a subject of discussion,” Murkowski said.

    “I hope that people who are interested in seeing this shutdown come to a quick end are willing to talk about ways that we might be able to accomplish that,” Murkowski said.

    Shutdown impact

    The shuttering of the federal government means that hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be furloughed, while others who are considered essential will have to keep reporting for work – though many won’t get paid until the impasse ends. Still others, however, will continue collecting paychecks since their jobs are not funded through annual appropriations from Congress.

    About 750,000 federal staffers – who earn a total of roughly $400 million each day – could be furloughed, according to the Congressional Budget Office. It noted that the figure could change if the shutdown is prolonged.

    Americans will also feel the shutdown in a variety of ways. While some essential activities will continue, other services will shut down. While air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration employees will remain on the job, staffing shortages have led to snarled flights and longer security lines during past shutdowns.

    It remains unclear whether visitors will be able to go to the more than 400 national park sites during the shutdown, but the Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo will be open at least until October 6 using budget funds from previous years. In the past, some states have said they will use their own funds to keep their national parks open during the impasses.

    Senior citizens, people with disabilities and others will continue to receive their monthly Social Security payments, while jobless Americans will keep getting unemployment benefits as long as their state agencies have enough administrative funds to process them. Medicare and Medicaid payments will also continue to be distributed.

    Medical care and critical services for veterans will not be interrupted during a government shutdown. This includes suicide prevention programs, homelessness programs, the Veterans Crisis Line, benefit payments and burials in national cemeteries. However, the GI Bill Hotline will be suspended, as would assistance programs to help service members shift to civilian life. Also, the permanent installation of headstone and cemetery grounds maintenance will not occur until the shutdown is over.

    Sarah Ferris, Morgan Rimmer, Manu Raju, Tami Luhby and CNN

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  • Health care at the heart of Capitol Hill standoff as shutdown looms – WTOP News

    With a government shutdown just hours away, one of the sticking points between Republicans and Democrats involves health care, specifically whether to extend premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act.

    With a government shutdown just hours away, one of the key sticking points between Republicans and Democrats involves health care, specifically whether to extend premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act.

    The debate centers on enhanced tax credits that help millions of Americans afford insurance through ACA marketplaces. These subsidies are currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, but Democrats are pushing for action now to avoid disruptions during the upcoming open enrollment period.

    “Twenty-two million people across the country get their coverage through the Affordable Care Act marketplaces,” said Anne Reid, policy director of the Funders Forum on Accountable Health at the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University.

    “The vast majority of those folks have some level of subsidization of their coverage, which is tied to their income.”

    Reid warns that without an extension, millions could lose coverage or face unaffordable premiums.

    The credits were expanded in recent years to raise income thresholds, allowing more Americans to qualify for help.

    “The credits were enhanced in the sense that a higher minimum income was set so more people could qualify to receive some relief toward these premiums,” Reid said.

    Reid previously served as a senior congressional staffer, where she contributed to health workforce policy during the development of the Affordable Care Act.

    Democrats want the extension included in the continuing resolution needed to keep the government open. Reid said they view it as a must-pass provision.

    “Democrats are arguing that we need to handle this in must-pass legislation, which at the moment is the appropriations bill.”

    They also want to reverse earlier Medicaid cuts that could result in more than 10 million people losing coverage.

    But Republicans argue the funding bill should be a “clean” continuing resolution, focused solely on keeping the government running.

    “Let’s just keep the government going on current fiscal year levels through the middle of November, to give us some time to work things out and negotiate a longer-term package,” Reid said, summarizing the GOP position.

    University of Maryland finance professor David Kass said Democrats are pushing to extend the expanded benefits into 2026, but Republicans want to debate the issue separately from the stopgap funding measure.

    “Fewer Americans would be able to purchase health insurance” if the premium help isn’t available as open enrollment begins, Kass said.

    Reid said the timing is critical, not just for consumers, but for insurers who need clarity to set rates.

    “Days and weeks matter in terms of being able to rightsize the premium levels.”

    The potential shutdown could also hit the D.C. region particularly hard, given its large federal workforce.

    “Job security and financial security would very acutely be felt in the D.C. region, given our demographics and who all comprises the federal workforce,” Reid said.

    With open enrollment approaching and budget negotiations stalled, Reid said the lack of clarity could leave consumers in limbo and millions of Americans at risk of losing affordable health coverage.

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    © 2025 WTOP. All Rights Reserved. This website is not intended for users located within the European Economic Area.

    Mike Murillo

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  • The Clock Is Ticking on a Lose-Lose Government Shutdown

    Republicans have advertised, or perhaps threatened, that they will seize more power if there is a shutdown: Last Wednesday, Russell Vought, the head of the Office of Management and Budget, released a memo in which, according to Politico the office “told agencies to identify programs, projects and activities where discretionary funding will lapse Oct. 1 and no alternative funding source is available.” The memo also revealed that OMB was instructing agencies to begin planning so-called reduction-in-force plans “that would go beyond standard furloughs, permanently eliminating jobs in programs not consistent with President Donald Trump’s priorities in the event of a shutdown.”

    Lest you think Vought is making an idle threat, he is not. He is one of the architects of Project 2025. Vought believes that the federal government is “costly, inefficient, and deeply in debt.”

    “If I were a Democrat and Russ Vought was in charge of OMB, I would have nightmares about what Russ could do that you couldn’t undo when government reopens,” Erick Erickson, a conservative talk show host who’s reportedly known the OMB director for decades, told The Boston Globe’s Tal Kopan. “Russ has waited for this moment his whole life.”

    This is the threat Republicans used when government funding was running out earlier in the year, and ultimately Schumer and the Democrats ended up supporting an extension. But a lot has happened since March; the Big Beautiful Bill has expanded ICE to the tune of billions of dollars, and Republicans have continued to DOGE the federal government. And the ruling party’s popularity has been in decline.

    If the government shuts down, Vought and Trump “will have enormous latitude to determine which services, programs, and employees can be sidelined, decisions that could go far beyond what has occurred during past shutdowns,” writes Max Stier, chief executive of the Partnership for Public Service. This is a real worry; Democrats have a much lower pain threshold than Republicans. Republicans want to shrink the government because it’s part of their larger gestalt, whereas Democrats worry that if thousands of Americans lose access to health care it might be hard for them to get it again.

    When I talked to Democrats, it really felt like they wanted a deal and thought maybe they could push the administration into some kind of agreement. Probably all that was squashed last night when Trump posted a vulgar AI-generated deepfake video with mariachi music and Jeffries in a sombrero. Ultimately Democrats are going to have the same problem everyone else does when they’re negotiating with Trump: He’s Trump.

    Molly Jong-Fast

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  • From Mass Firings to the Fed—Why This Government Shutdown Could Be Different

    A federal shutdown is looming over Washington once again—and this one could get ugly if lawmakers fail to ink yet another eleventh-hour deal to keep the government funded.

    President Donald Trump met with top lawmakers on Monday, but deliberations between Democrats and Republicans failed to reach much progress that’d alleviate shutdown concerns. If they don’t reach a deal, a shutdown will kick in Wednesday after the clock strikes midnight.

    Much of the debate falls on healthcare, specifically expiring funds established under the Affordable Care Act that will cause insurance premiums to soar, in addition to reversing cuts to Medicaid. Democratic lawmakers want to extend funding to keep health care costs lower, while Republican lawmakers are seeking to cut medical funding to help pay for tax cuts instead.

    Trump acknowledged the possibility of a shutdown in an interview with NBC. He also directed federal agencies to provide a list of permanent staff cuts in the event of the government does shut down. This strays from the usual furloughs that transpire when the government shuts down.

    But it’s not entirely offbeat for an administration that plans to cut more than 300,000 federal jobs by the end of the year. The workforce restructuring plan was largely outlined by the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which is seen as a blueprint for many of the administration’s policies including the mass-consolidation of the federal government.

    “The Democrats response to Trump’s threat [is …] we’re not taking that seriously because you’ve been doing this all along,” says Thom Hartmann, a political commentator and host of The Thom Hartmann program, a radio show. “And anybody that you’re going to fire as a result of this threat is probably somebody you’re going to fire anyway once you get around to it.”

    The economic impacts of a shutdown largely depend on how long one transpires. In usual shutdowns, federal employees are furloughed, but they receive back pay—for that reason, the economic impact is relatively muted, according to Wafa Hakim Orman, an economist and professor at the University of Alabama Huntsville’s College of Business.

    “There was a lot of inconvenience to people who couldn’t access any federal services during the shutdown, but past that inconvenience, it wasn’t a major lasting economic impact of any kind,” Hakim Orman says. But Hakim Orman explains the potential for permanent layoffs may have more lasting consequences, depending on size.

    The shutdown may also impact the publication of a much anticipated jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics set to be published on Friday, as most federal services that are considered non-essential get put on ice. In August, Trump fired the previous BLS commissioner accusing them of producing a “rigged” report to make the administration look bad.

    The jobs report is one key indicator that the Federal Reserve—which stays open during a shutdown since it operates independently—turns to when orchestrating monetary policy. If the shutdown stretches out more than two weeks, the reports delay could complicate the upcoming Fed meeting which starts on Oct. 28, says George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer at Key Private Bank. Mateyo adds a delay in the jobs report could push the Federal Reserve to pause rather that cut interest rates in October.

    “That said, there are other data points that the Fed considers in its interest rate policy decisions,” Mateyo adds. “If they suggest a significantly weaker outlook for employment, the Fed may be inclined to move forward with its cutting cycle.”

    Melissa Angell

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  • How a government shutdown would give Trump more power

    A fight between Republicans and Democrats could lead to an Oct. 1 federal government shutdown. 

    Democrats are trying to leverage the must-pass bill to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies; the Trump administration is tying a shutdown to potential mass federal worker layoffs.

    The current battle focuses on expiring subsidies for the Affordable Care Act that Democrats say will hurt the ability of millions of enrollees to afford insurance. Democrats have also said they want to reverse Medicaid cuts that Trump signed into law this summer.

    Republicans are seeking a bill to temporarily extend federal spending at current levels without any add-ons.

    If the government shuts down, President Donald Trump and his administration — which has already defied norms on executive power — likely will seek to exert more power. 

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    Trump’s Office of Management and Budget under Russell Vought has moved with more executive authority over spending, which is typically left to Congress. The administration took steps to cancel foreign aid and asserted power to withhold billions of domestic spending.  

    “I would expect this shutdown to look different than any other shutdown,” said Joshua Sewell, Taxpayers for Common Sense director of research and policy. He said he expects that the Trump team’s actions would be guided by what they believe achieves the most for them politically.

    Trump could use a shutdown to dismantle government functions, wrote Max Stier, chief executive of the Partnership for Public Service, a nonprofit focused on improving the federal government.

    If lawmakers can’t reach a deal, Stier wrote, Trump and Vought “will have enormous latitude to determine which services, programs, and employees can be sidelined, decisions that could go far beyond what has occurred during past shutdowns.”

    Beyond the Antideficiency Act, which says the government cannot spend money or incur debts without Congress’ authority, the shutdown process has historically been guided by traditions, not laws.

    In recent past shutdowns, hundreds of thousands of employees were furloughed, but the shutdowns did not result in mass permanent layoffs or significant reorganizations. Under federal law, federal workers also receive back pay for their time on furlough.

    Trump and his congressional allies would be in charge of the government amid a shutdown. What can Trump do on his own?

    OMB told agencies to “consider” layoff notices

    A sign posted Oct. 1, 2013, on a barricade in front of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C.,  tells visitors it’s closed because of a government shutdown. (AP)

    The Trump administration has already reduced the workforce by about 200,000, a number that could grow to 300,000 by the end of the year, Stier wrote. The administration gutted some agencies and programs including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Voice of America.

    OMB provided an email, first published by Politico, that it sent to agency heads that said agencies should consider sending “reduction in force” notices to employees whose programs are “not consistent with the President’s priorities” or lack mandatory funding or another source of funding, such as the tax and spending legislation H.R. 1, which became law in July.

    Rachel Greszler, a workforce expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said the administration hasn’t mandated layoffs, but directed agencies to “consider” issuing such notices “as a way to let federal employees know which of their jobs could be on the line if Congress reduces their agency’s funding.” 

    This signals to Democrats that health care funding demands could backfire, she said, potentially causing further reductions in the size of the federal government.

    Several questions remain, including how many employees could face layoffs and when. The memo says once fiscal year 2026 appropriations are enacted, agencies should revise their plans to reduce staff.

    “I believe this memo indicates OMB will pursue a dual path of shutdown-related furloughs and a separate process of mass layoffs,” Sewell said. Whether the layoffs happen before or after funding is restored “is an open question,” Sewell said. “This certainly indicates the administration wants to cut these agencies and programs at any opportunity either now or in the future.”

    Experts offered mixed opinions about whether layoffs would hold up in court. Any such process must follow the rules, such as a 60-day written notice. 

    “A shutdown provides no new legal authority to engage in widespread firings,” said Sam Berger, who works for the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and who worked at OMB during the Biden and Obama administrations. 

    Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate minority leader from New York, said the memo is an “attempt at intimidation” and predicted such firings would be reversed. 

    Social Security checks and other mandatory spending will continue

    Mandatory spending — ongoing spending that does not require periodic extensions from Congress — generally continues during a shutdown. This means Americans would still receive Social Security checks and be able to use Medicare and Medicaid.

    In previous shutdowns, border protection, medical care in hospitals, air traffic control, law enforcement and power grid maintenance were deemed essential and remained active during the shutdown.

    Even continued services can be disrupted. During the 2018-19 shutdown, holiday travelers faced delays as many unpaid TSA staff and air traffic controllers didn’t come to work.

    Administrations have a lot of leeway to define “essential” workers. During the 2013 shutdown, the Obama administration closed national parks. In 2018, the Trump administration kept many national parks open with limited services using previously paid park entrance fees to cover personnel costs; the Government Accountability Office concluded that this violated federal law.

    The second-term Trump administration is expected to continue priorities such as immigration enforcement and might try to focus cuts on areas that have already been slashed. Trump campaigned on a promise to abolish the Education Department, and his administration has shrunk the Environmental Protection Agency. 

    There have been four shutdowns in recent decades that lasted more than one business day, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 

    RELATED: Yes, ACA subsidies cut and premium rise could mean your health insurance bill goes up 75%

    RELATED: Fact-check: Past government shutdowns cost the U.S. economy billions

    RELATED: MAGA-Meter: Trump’s second term

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