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Tag: NVDA

  • Stocks finish at highest level in a month as Nasdaq leads with 2% gain

    Stocks finish at highest level in a month as Nasdaq leads with 2% gain

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    U.S. stocks finished at their highest level in a month on Monday as strong performances by consumer-technology giant Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +2.35%

    and chipmaker NVIDIA Inc.
    NVDA,
    +7.59%

    pushed the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +2.01%

    further into the lead. The Nasdaq gained roughly 223 points, or 2%, to finish at around 11,364, bringing the tech-heavy index’s year-to-date gain to 8.6%, according to FactSet data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.76%

    gained 254 points, or 0.8%, to close at roughly 33,630. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.19%

    gained 47 points, or 1.2%, to 4,020. The Dow is up approximately 1.5% since the start of the year, while the S&P 500 is up roughly 4.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has outperformed the other major U.S. indexes since the start of 2023, a reversal of the trend from 2022, when the value-heavy Dow outperformed the Nasdaq by the widest margin since 2000, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investors await a batch of earnings from megacap technology stocks this week, including Microsoft Corp
    MSFT,
    +0.98%
    .

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  • Tesla stock wipes out three-day bounce, falls to lowest price in more than 2 years

    Tesla stock wipes out three-day bounce, falls to lowest price in more than 2 years

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    It has taken just one day for Tesla Inc.’s stock to erase the entire bounce it enjoyed over the last three days trading sessions of 2022, as disappointing deliveries data helped trigger the biggest selloff in more than two years.

    The stock’s
    TSLA,
    -12.24%

    Tuesday drop knocked the electric vehicle maker’s market capitalization to 15th on the list of most valuation S&P 500 index companies.

    On Tuesday, Tesla’s market cap fell below that of consumer products company Procter & Gamble Co.
    PG,
    +0.01%
    ,
    with a current market cap of $359.18 billion, and was just below Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    -2.05%

    at $352.15 billion, according to FactSet data. Tesla sat just above Chevron Corp.
    CVX,
    -3.06%
    ,
    which was at $336.43 billion. (See list of S&P 500’s 20 most valuable companies as of Tuesday’s closing prices below.)

    Tesla’s stock took a $15.08, or 12.2% dive, to $108.10 on Tuesday, to lead the S&P 500’s
    SPX,
    -0.40%

    decliners, after the company reported over the weekend that fourth-quarter deliveries that came up short of expectations for the third quarter in a row. It suffered the biggest one-day decline since it plummeted 21.1% on Sept. 8, 2020, and closed at the lowest price since Aug. 13, 2020.

    Don’t miss: Tesla delivery-target miss shows ‘demand cracks clearly happening’ that mean ‘numbers could be materially reset’ for coming years, analysts write.

    With about 3.16 billion shares outstanding as of Oct. 18, the stock’s decline shaved about $47.62 billion off Tesla’s market cap, to bring it down to $341.35 billion. That’s a far cry from the peak market cap of $1.24 trillion reached exactly one-year ago.

    After the stock hit the deepest oversold reading in its history based on the widely followed Relative Strength Index momentum indicator on Dec. 27, following the longest losing streak in more than four years, it ran up $14.08, or 12.9%, over the past three days.

    If there’s a bright side to Tuesday’s stock selloff, it’s that even though the price fell below the Dec. 27 closing price, the RSI ended the day at 24.86, which is up from the Dec. 27 record low of 16.56.

    That could be a preliminary sign of what chart watchers call “bullish technical divergence,” which is when prices make lower lows while the RSI makes a higher low. It’s still rather early to make that determination, however, as the stock needs to start bouncing again to see if RSI bottoms above the previous low.

    Market caps of the Top 20 most valuable S&P 500 companies:

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  • These 20 stocks were the biggest losers of 2022

    These 20 stocks were the biggest losers of 2022

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    This has been the year of reckoning for Big Tech stocks — even those of companies that have continued to grow sales by double digits.

    Below is a list of the 20 stocks in the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.72%

    that have declined the most in 2022.

    First, here’s how the 11 sectors of the benchmark index have performed this year:

    S&P 500 sector

    2022 price change

    Forward P/E

    Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021

    Energy

    57.8%

    9.6

    11.1

    Utilities

    -0.5%

    18.8

    20.4

    Consumer Staples

    -2.7%

    20.9

    21.8

    Healthcare

    -3.2%

    17.4

    17.2

    Industrials

    -6.7%

    18.0

    20.8

    Financials

    -12.1%

    11.7

    14.6

    Materials

    -13.4%

    15.6

    16.6

    Real Estate

    -27.7%

    16.2

    24.2

    Information Technology

    -28.8%

    19.6

    28.1

    Consumer Discretionary

    -37.4%

    20.7

    33.2

    Communication Services

    -40.4%

    14.0

    20.8

    S&P 500

    -19.2%

    16.5

    21.4

    Source: FactSet

    The energy sector has been the only one to show a gain in 2022, and it has been a whopper, even as West Texas Intermediate crude oil
    CL.1,
    +0.41%

    has given up most of its gains from earlier in the year. Here’s why investors are still confident in the supply/demand setup for oil and energy stocks.

    Looking at the worst-performing sectors, you might wonder why the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors have fared worse than information-technology, the core tech sector. One reason is that S&P Dow Jones Indices can surprise investors with its sector choices. The consumer discretionary sector includes Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.70%

    and Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -1.17%
    ,
    which has fallen nearly 50% this year. The communications sector includes Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    -1.21%
    ,
    along with Match Group Inc.
    MTCH,
    +0.50%
    ,
    which is down 69% for 2022, and Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    -0.44%
    ,
    which is down 52% this year.

    There have been many reasons easy to cite for Big Tech’s decline, such as a questionable change in strategy for Facebook’s holding company, Meta, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg has put so much of the company’s resources into developing a new world that most people don’t wish to enter, at least yet. Meta’s shares were down 64% for 2022 through Dec. 29.

    You might also blame the Twitter-related antics and sales of Tesla shares by CEO Elon Musk for the 65% decline in the electric-vehicle maker’s stock this year. But Tesla had a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 120.3 at the end of 2021, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.72%

    traded for 21.4 times its weighted forward earnings estimate, according to FactSet. Those P/E ratios have now declined to 21.7 and 16.4, respectively. So Tesla no longer appears to be a very expensive stock, especially for a company that increased its vehicle deliveries by 42% in the third quarter from a year earlier.

    Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla’s stock to double during 2023. It nearly made this list of 20 EV stocks expected to rebound the most in 2023.

    The worst-performing S&P 500 stocks of 2022

    Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 that fell the most for 2022 through the close on Dec. 29.

    Company

    Ticker

    2022 price change

    Forward P/E

    Forward P/E as of Dec. 32, 2021

    Generac Holdings Inc.

    GNRC,
    -0.84%
    -71.4%

    13.7

    30.2

    Match Group Inc.

    MTCH,
    +0.50%
    -68.9%

    20.1

    48.5

    Align Technology Inc.

    ALGN,
    -0.52%
    -67.7%

    27.4

    48.7

    Tesla Inc.

    TSLA,
    +0.70%
    -65.4%

    21.7

    120.3

    SVB Financial Group

    SIVB,
    -0.38%
    -65.4%

    10.8

    23.0

    Catalent Inc.

    CTLT,
    -0.40%
    -64.6%

    13.0

    32.5

    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    META,
    -1.21%
    -64.2%

    14.7

    23.5

    Signature Bank

    SBNY,
    -0.34%
    -64.1%

    6.2

    18.6

    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    PYPL,
    -0.01%
    -62.6%

    14.8

    36.0

    V.F. Corp.

    VFC,
    +0.15%
    -62.5%

    11.9

    20.4

    Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A

    WBD,
    -1.64%
    -59.9%

    N/A

    7.5

    Carnival Corp.

    CCL,
    -0.23%
    -59.8%

    38.1

    N/A

    Stanley Black & Decker Inc.

    SWK,
    -0.42%
    -59.8%

    17.0

    15.9

    Lumen Technologies Inc.

    LUMN,
    -1.79%
    -57.8%

    7.7

    7.8

    Zebra Technologies Corp. Class A

    ZBRA,
    -0.44%
    -56.7%

    14.5

    30.1

    Dish Network Corp. Class A

    DISH,
    -0.96%
    -56.5%

    8.6

    10.9

    Caesars Entertainment Inc.

    CZR,
    +0.24%
    -55.7%

    51.4

    144.5

    Lincoln National Corp.

    LNC,
    +0.26%
    -55.1%

    3.4

    6.2

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD,
    -0.97%
    -55.0%

    17.8

    43.1

    Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

    STX,
    -0.55%
    -53.1%

    15.0

    12.4

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more information about the companies.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Another way of measuring the biggest stock-market losers of 2022

    It is one thing to have a large decline based on the share price, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. How much of a decline have investors seen in the holdings of their shares during the year? The S&P 500’s total market capitalization declined to $31.66 trillion as of Dec. 28 (the most recent figure available) from $40.36 trillion at the end of 2021, according to FactSet.

    Shareholders of these companies have suffered the largest declines in market cap during 2022.

    Company

    Ticker

    2022 market capitalization change ($bil)

    2022 price change

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    -0.63%
    -$851

    -27.0%

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    -1.17%
    -$832

    -49.5%

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    -1.15%
    -$728

    -28.3%

    Tesla Inc.

    TSLA,
    +0.70%
    -$677

    -65.4%

    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    META,
    -1.21%
    -$465

    -64.2%

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    -1.37%
    -$376

    -50.3%

    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    PYPL,
    -0.01%
    -$141

    -62.6%

    Netflix Inc.

    NFLX,
    -0.44%
    -$138

    -51.7%

    Walt Disney Co.

    DIS,
    -1.62%
    -$123

    -43.7%

    Salesforce Inc.

    CRM,
    -0.96%
    -$118

    -47.8%

    Source: FactSet

    So there is your surprise for today: Apple is this year’s biggest stock-market loser.

    Don’t miss: Best stock picks for 2023: Here are Wall Street analysts’ most heavily favored choices

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  • This company has wiped out more investor wealth in 2022 than Tesla

    This company has wiped out more investor wealth in 2022 than Tesla

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    Elon Musk has been trying this week to defend Tesla’s abysmal stock performance in 2022. The electric vehicle giant has seen its stock plummet by 61% this year, making it the 11th-worst performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2022.

    “As bank savings account interest rates, which are guaranteed, start to approach stock market returns, which are *not* guaranteed, people will increasingly move their money out of stocks into cash, thus causing stocks to drop,” Musk tweeted.

    You might expect that Tesla’s stock drop has wiped out more investor wealth than any other stock in the world this year. But you would be wrong.

    If we look at declines in market capitalization — the value of companies’ common-shares outstanding — Tesla
    TSLA,
    -1.76%

    has been the fourth worst-performing stock in the benchmark S&P 500 this year, as of 1 p.m. ET on Dec. 21:

    Company

    Ticker

    2022 market cap change ($bil)

    Intraday market cap on Dec. 21 ($bil)

    Dec. 31, 2021 market cap ($bil)

    2022 price change

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +1.74%
    -$805

    $886

    $1,691

    -48%

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    -0.28%
    -$753

    $2,160

    $2,913

    -24%

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    +0.23%
    -$700

    $1,825

    $2,525

    -27%

    Tesla Inc.

    TSLA,
    -1.76%
    -$622

    $439

    $1,061

    -61%

    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    META,
    +0.79%
    -$466

    $318

    $784

    -64%

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    -0.87%
    -$329

    $406

    $735

    -44%

    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    PYPL,
    +0.67%
    -$143

    $79

    $222

    -63%

    Netflix Inc.

    NFLX,
    -0.94%
    -$134

    $133

    $267

    -51%

    Walt Disney Co.

    DIS,
    +1.55%
    -$122

    $160

    $282

    -44%

    Salesforce Inc.

    CRM,
    +0.19%
    -$119

    $131

    $250

    -49%

    Source: FactSet

    On a percentage basis, all these stocks have performed worse than the full S&P 500, which has fallen 19%, excluding dividends.

    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +1.74%

    has erased more shareholder wealth than any other publicly traded company in 2022. In total, investors in Amazon have lost $804.6 billion this year. The stock is down 48% in 2022.

    Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -0.28%

    and Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +0.23%

    have also suffered larger market-cap declines than Tesla, by virtue of their sheer size.

    The companies have different fiscal and annual period ends, but if we look at data for the past three reported quarters and compare to the same period a year earlier, here’s how the four stack up:

    Company

    Ticker

    Change in sales for three quarters from year-earlier period

    Change in EPS for three quarters from year-earlier period

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +1.74%

     

    10%

    N/A

    Apple Inc.

     
    AAPL,
    -0.28%
    6%

    2%

    Microsoft Corp.

     
    MSFT,
    +0.23%
    14%

    -2%

    Tesla Inc.

     
    TSLA,
    -1.76%
    58%

    169%

    Source: FactSet

    Amazon showed a net loss of $3 billion for the first three quarters of 2022 as the company neared the end of its extraordinary multiyear effort to build out its warehouse and fulfillment infrastructure. For the first three quarters of 2021, the company booked $19 billion in profits. When announcing Amazon’s third-quarter results CEO Andy Jassy said the company was working methodically toward “a stronger cost structure for the business moving forward.”

    The incredible growth of Amazon’s cloud business has stalled and disappointed the expectations the company had nurtured on Wall Street. The Amazon Web Services business is facing increasing competition from the likes of Microsoft and its customers are pulling back. Meanwhile, retail sales have also come in weak going into the Christmas and holiday season. 

    Amazon’s stock has declined 22% since it closed at $110.96 on Oct. 27, right before it disappointed investors not only with its third-quarter results, but with its outlook: It expects to break even during the holiday quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet had previously expected a profit of more than $5 billion.

    Tesla stands in contrast to Amazon, as you can see on the table above. Its sales grew by 58% during the first three quarters of 2022 from the year-earlier period and its earnings per share rose nearly threefold.

    This has been a year of significant declines for shares of giant tech-oriented companies, especially those that had traded at lofty price-to-earnings valuations — that group includes Amazon and Tesla. In fact, these companies have given up all their pandemic era gains int he stock market.

    But with Tesla’s results so outstanding through the first three quarters of 2022, it raises the question: How much of the drop in the electric car makers share price was tied to Musk’s actions as CEO of Twitter, which he acquired on Oct. 27 after a monthslong saga? And how much of a relief rally, if any, might there be for Tesla if Musk, as expected, steps down as Twitter CEO?

    How about some bottom-feeding?

    Here’s the same list of 10 stocks in the S&P 500 that have seen the largest declines in market cap this year, with a summary of analysts’ ratings, consensus price targets and declines in their forward price-to-earnings ratios:

    Company

    Ticker

    Share “buy” ratings

    Dec. 21 closing price

    Cons. price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Forward P/E as of Dec. 20

    Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +1.74%
    91%

    $85.19

    $134.85

    58%

    49.3

    64.9

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    -0.28%
    74%

    $132.30

    $173.44

    31%

    21.4

    30.2

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    +0.23%
    91%

    $241.80

    $293.06

    21%

    23.7

    34.0

    Tesla Inc.

    TSLA,
    -1.76%
    63%

    $137.80

    $272.64

    98%

    24.6

    120.3

    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    META,
    +0.79%
    63%

    $117.09

    $145.45

    24%

    14.5

    23.5

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    -0.87%
    68%

    $160.85

    $195.72

    22%

    39.2

    58.0

    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    PYPL,
    +0.67%
    71%

    $68.76

    $104.32

    52%

    14.5

    36.0

    Netflix Inc.

    NFLX,
    -0.94%
    47%

    $288.19

    $302.89

    5%

    28.4

    45.6

    Walt Disney Co.

    DIS,
    +1.55%
    82%

    $87.02

    $119.60

    37%

    19.8

    34.2

    Salesforce Inc.

    CRM,
    +0.19%
    78%

    $128.45

    $195.18

    52%

    23.4

    53.5

    Source: FactSet

    A majority of analysts see a golden path ahead for 2023 for all of these stocks except for Netflix.

    For more information about any of these companies, click the tickers.

    Click here for a detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Don’t miss: 11 high-yield dividend stocks that are Wall Street’s favorites for 2023

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  • Nvidia, AMD, and Lam Research Slide After Micron Disappoints

    Nvidia, AMD, and Lam Research Slide After Micron Disappoints

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    Nvidia, AMD, and Lam Research Slide After Micron Disappoints

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  • This record number in Nvidia earnings is a scary sight

    This record number in Nvidia earnings is a scary sight

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    Nvidia Corp.’s financial results had a bit of a surprise for investors, and not on the good side — product inventories doubled to a record high as the chip company gears up for a questionable holiday season.

    Nvidia reported fiscal third-quarter revenue that was slightly better than analysts’ reduced expectations Wednesday, but the numbers weren’t that great. Revenue fell 17% to $5.9 billion, while earnings were cut in half thanks to a $702 million inventory charge, largely relating to slower data-center demand in China.

    Gaming revenue in the quarter fell 51% to $1.57 billion. Nvidia said it is working with its retail partners to help move the currently high-channel inventories.

    While the company was writing off the inventory for China, its own new product inventory was growing. Nvidia
    NVDA,
    -4.54%

    reported that its overall product inventory nearly doubled to $4.45 billion in the fiscal third quarter, compared with $2.23 billion a year ago and $3.89 billion in the prior quarter. Executives cited its coming product launches, designed around its new Ada and Hopper architectures, when asked about the inventory gains.

    In the semiconductor industry, high inventories can make investors nervous, especially after the industry had so many supply constraints in recent years that quickly swung to a glut of chips in 2022. With doubts about demand for gaming cards and consumers’ willingness to spend amid sky-high inflation this holiday season, having all that product on hand just amps up the nerves.

    Full earnings coverage: Nvidia profit chopped in half, but tweaked servers to China offset earlier $400 million warning

    Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress told MarketWatch in a telephone interview Wednesday that the company’s high level of inventories were commensurate with its high levels of revenue.

    “I do believe….it is our highest level of inventory,” she said. “They go hand in hand.” Kress said she was confident in the success of Nvidia’s upcoming product launches.

    Nvidia’s revenue reached a peak in the April 2022 quarter with $8.3 billion, and in the past two quarters revenue has slowed, with gaming demand sluggish amid a transition to a new cycle, and a decline in China data-center demand due to COVID-19 lockdowns and U.S. government restrictions.

    For its data-center customers, the new architectures promise major advances in computing power and artificial-intelligence features, with Nvidia planning to ship the equivalent of a supercomputer in a box with its new products over the next year. Those types of advanced products weigh on inventory totals even more, Kress said, because of the price of the total package.

    “It’s about the complexity of the system we are building, that is what drives the inventory, the pieces of that together,” Kress said.

    Bernstein Research analyst Stacy Rasgon believes that products based on Hopper will begin shipping over the next several quarters, “at materially higher price points.” He said in a recent note that he believes Nvidia’s numbers were likely hitting a bottom in this quarter.

    “We remain positive on the Hopper ramp into next year, and believe numbers have at this point likely reached close to bottom, with new cycles brewing and an attractive secular story even without China potential,” Rasgon said in an earnings preview note Tuesday.

    Read also: Warren Buffett’s chip-stock purchase is a classic example of why you want to be ‘greedy only when others are fearful’

    Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang reminded investors on a conference call that the company’s inventories are “never zero,” and said everyone is enthusiastic about the upcoming launches. But it doesn’t take too long of a memory to conjure up a time when Nvidia went into a holiday with an inventory backlog that included new architecture and greatly disappointed investors: Four years ago, Huang had to cut his forecast for holiday earnings twice amid a “crypto hangover” with similar dynamics to the current moment

    Investors need faith that this holiday season will not be the same, even as demand for some videogame products declines after a pandemic boom just as the market for cryptocurrency — some of which has been mined with Nvidia products — hits a rough patch. Huang said that Nvidia’s RTX 4080 and 4090 graphics cards based on the Ada Lovelace architecture had an “exceptional launch,” and sold out.

    Nvidia shares gained more than 2% in after-hours trading Wednesday, suggesting that some are betting that this time will be different. That enthusiasm needs to translate into revenue for Nvidia so that this big gain in inventories does not end up being part of another write-down at some point in the future.

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  • Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting

    Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting

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    Data-center stocks buoyed an otherwise down chip sector Thursday as shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. cratered on torn-in-half profits and a hike in capital spending to fuel Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse ambitions, prompting one analyst to ask if server chips can only go up now.

    As shares of Meta dropped as much as 25% Thursday, shares of Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +2.31%

    surged as much as 7%, compared with less than 1% declines on the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    -1.51%

    and S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.69%
    .

    Late Wednesday, Meta reported that quarterly profits fell by more than 50% and added that it expects 2022 capital expenditure of $32 billion to $33 billion, compared with a previous range of $30 billion to $34 billion. In 2023, the company said, it expects capital expenditure in the range of $34 billion to $39 billion, “driven by our investments in data centers, servers, and network infrastructure.”

    Meta
    META,
    -24.64%

    noted that an “increase in AI capacity is driving substantially all of our capital expenditure growth in 2023.”

    Soon after Meta made that announcement, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis said in a note that “positive capex commentary from Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    -2.80%
    ,
    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    -2.03%

    and Meta” was all a positive for data-center equipment providers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.92%
    ,
    Broadcom Inc.
    AVGO,
    -1.26%

    and Marvell Technology Inc.
    MRVL,
    +3.61%
    .
    Lipacis has buy ratings on all four stocks.

    Shares of AMD rallied as much as 5%, Broadcom shares rose as much as 2% and Marvell shares surged as much as 10% Thursday. Intel Corp.
    INTC,
    -3.69%

    shares were up a little more than 1% at one point ahead of its earnings report, scheduled for after the close Thursday.

    Opinion: Facebook and Google grew into tech titans by ignoring Wall Street. Now it could lead to their downfall

    Jefferies noted that Meta’s capital expenditure for 2023 alone charts a 12% year-over-year hike at midpoint, compared with the Wall Street consensus of $29 billion, or a 5% year-over-year decline.

    “We sense investor caution around Nvidia’s datacenter business this quarter, but we expect all four [equipment providers] to discuss positive datacenter trends this earnings season,” Lipacis said, noting he was a buyer of Nvidia stock “in front of its earnings call.”

    From the perspective of the chip industry — which has gone from a two-year global chip shortage to a sudden glut in a matter of months as PC and consumer-electronics demand has dropped sharply, causing chip fabricators to pump the brakes on investments in new capacity — Lipacis questioned whether the glut will ever reach data-center sales, as many have feared.

    “The most common comment we hear from investors on Nvidia is ‘the Datacenter Shoe has to Drop,’” Lipacis said, noting that his data shows that the shoe has already dropped and an uptick is on the horizon.

    Lipacis explained that data-center sales from Nvidia, AMD and Intel combined declined to $10.5 billion in the second quarter from $12 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 and that he is modeling another $10.5 billion quarter in the third.

    “This looks consistent with the pattern since 2017 of 4-to-5 qtrs above trendline, followed by 2-to-3 qtrs of below trendline ‘digestion,’ i.e., it looks like the datacenter shoe has already dropped,” Lipacis said.

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  • Apple Earnings Are on Deck as Consumer Demand Softens

    Apple Earnings Are on Deck as Consumer Demand Softens

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    Apple


    shares have been remarkably resilient in the face of this year’s tech stock selloff, falling less than 15% since the end of December, and sharply outperforming rivals


    Microsoft



    Alphabet


    and


    Amazon


    which are all down from 26% to 28%.

    Apple (ticker: AAPL) sits with a $2.4 trillion market valuation—$500 billion more than Microsoft, $1 trillion more than Alphabet, and nearly double the size of Amazon.

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  • These 27 stocks can give you a more diversified portfolio than the S&P 500 — and that’s a key advantage right now

    These 27 stocks can give you a more diversified portfolio than the S&P 500 — and that’s a key advantage right now

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    You probably already know that because of market-capitalization weighting, a broad index such as the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.67%

    can be concentrated in a handful of stocks. Index funds are popular for good reasons — they tend to have low expenses and it is difficult for active managers to outperform them over the long term.

    For example, look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    -0.71%
    ,
    which tracks the S&P 500 by holding all of its stocks by the same weighting as the index. Five stocks — Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.08%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    -0.85%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -1.11%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    -1.08%

    GOOGL,
    -1.13%

    and Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.84%
    ,
    make up 21.5% of the portfolio.

    But there are other considerations when it comes to diversification — namely, factors. During an interview, Scott Weber of Vaughan Nelson Investment Management in Houston explained how groups of stock and commodities can move together, adding to a lack of diversification in a typical portfolio or index fund.

    Weber co-manages the $293 million Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select Fund
    VNSAX,
    -0.96%
    ,
    which carries a five-star rating (the highest) from investment-researcher Morningstar, and has outperformed its benchmark, the S&P 500.

    Vaughan Nelson is a Houston-based affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, with about $13 billion in assets under management, including $5 billion managed under the same strategy as the fund, including the Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select ETF
    VNSE,
    -0.87%
    .
    The ETF was established in Sept, 2020, so does not yet have a Morningstar rating.

    Factoring-in the factors

    Weber explained how he and colleagues incorporate 35 factors into their portfolio selection process. For example, a fund might hold shares of real-estate investment trusts (REITs), financial companies and energy producers. These companies are in different sectors, as defined by Standard & Poor’s. Yet their performance may be correlated.

    Weber pointed out that REITs, for example, were broken out of the financial sector to become their own sector in 2016. “Did that make REIT’s more sensitive to interest rates? The answer is no,” he said. “The S&P sector buckets are somewhat  better than arbitrary, but they are not perfect.”

    Of course 2022 is something of an exception, with so many assets dropping in price at the same time. But over the long term, factor analysis can identify correlations and lead money managers to limit their investments in companies, sectors or industries whose prices tend to move together. This style has helped the Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select Fund outperform against its benchmark, Weber said.

    Getting back to the five largest components of the S&P 500, they are all tech-oriented, even though only two, Apple and Microsoft, are in the information technology sector, while Alphabet is in the communications sector and Tesla is in the consumer discretionary sector. “Regardless of the sectors,” they tend to move together, Weber said.

    Exposure to commodity prices, timing of revenue streams through economic cycles (which also incorporates currency exposure), inflation and many other items are additional factors that Weber and his colleagues incorporate into their broad allocation strategy and individual stock selections.

    For example, you might ordinarily expect inflation, real estate and gold to move together, Weber said. But as we are seeing this year, with high inflation and rising interest rates, there is downward pressure on real-estate prices, while gold prices
    GC00,
    -0.01%

    have declined 10% this year.

    Digging further, the factors also encompass sensitivity of investments to U.S. and other countries’ government bonds of various maturities, credit spreads between corporate and government bonds in developed countries, exchange rates, and measures of liquidity, price volatility and momentum.

    Stock selection

    The largest holding of the Select fund is NextEra Energy Inc.
    NEE,
    -1.89%
    ,
    which owns FPL, Florida’s largest electric utility. FPL is phasing-out coal plants and replacing power-generating capacity with natural gas as well as wind and solar facilities.

    Weber said: “There’s not a company on the planet that is better at getting alternate (meaning solar and wind) generation deployed. But because they own FPL, some of my investors say it is one of the largest carbon emitters on the planet.”

    He added that “as a consequence of their skill in operating, they re generating amazing returns for investors.” NextEra’s share shave returned 446% over the past 10 years. One practice that has helped to elevate the company’s return on equity, and presumably its stock price, has been “dropping assets down” into NextEra Energy Partners LP
    NEP,
    -2.61%
    ,
    which NEE manages, Weber said. He added that the assets put into the partnership tend to be “great at cash-flow generation, but not on achieving growth.”

    When asked for more examples of stocks in the fund that may provide excellent long-term returns, Weber mentioned Monolithic Power Systems Inc.
    MPWR,
    -0.24%
    ,
    as a way to take advantage of the broad decline in semiconductor stocks this year. (The iShares Semiconductor ETF
    SOXX,
    +0.64%

    has declined 21% this year, while industry stalwarts Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +0.70%

    and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.19%

    are down 59% and 60%, respectively.)

    He said Monolithic Power has been consistently making investments that improve its return on invested capital (ROIC). A company’s ROIC is its profit divided by the sum of the carrying value of stock it has issued over the years and its current debt. It doesn’t reflect the stock price and is considered a good measure of a management team’s success at making investment decisions and managing projects. Monolithic Power’s ROICC for 2021 was 21.8%, according to FactSet, rising from 13.2% five years earlier.

    “We want to see a business generating a return on capital in excess of its cost of capital. In addition, they need to invest their capital at incrementally improving returns,” Weber said.

    Another example Weber gave of a stock held by the fund is Dollar General Corp.
    DG,
    +0.33%
    ,
    which he called a much better operator than rival Dollar Tree Inc.
    DLTR,
    +0.14%
    ,
    which owns Family Dollar. He cited DG’s roll-out of frozen-food and fresh food offerings, as well as its growth runway: “They still have 8,000 or 9,000 stores to build-out” in the U.S., he said.

    Fund holdings

    In order to provide a full current list of stocks held under Weber’s strategy, here are the 27 stocks held by the the Natixis Vaughan Select ETF as of Sept. 30. The largest 10 positions made up 49% of the portfolio:

    Company

    Ticker

    % of portfolio

    NextEra Energy Inc.

    NEE,
    -1.89%
    5.74%

    Dollar General Corp.

    DG,
    +0.33%
    5.51%

    Danaher Corp.

    DHR,
    -2.89%
    4.93%

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    -0.85%
    4.91%

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    -1.11%
    4.90%

    Sherwin-Williams Co.

    SHW,
    -2.53%
    4.80%

    Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

    WPM,
    -2.28%
    4.76%

    Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

    ICE,
    -1.16%
    4.52%

    McCormick & Co.

    MKC,
    +0.11%
    4.48%

    Clorox Co.

    CLX,
    +1.27%
    4.39%

    Aon PLC Class A

    AON,
    +0.21%
    4.33%

    Jack Henry & Associates Inc.

    JKHY,
    -0.97%
    4.08%

    Motorola Solutions Inc.

    MSI,
    -0.64%
    4.08%

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    VRTX,
    -2.72%
    4.01%

    Union Pacific Corp.

    UNP,
    -0.78%
    3.99%

    Alphabet Inc. Class A

    GOOGL,
    -1.13%
    3.03%

    Johnson & Johnson

    JNJ,
    -0.80%
    2.98%

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +0.70%
    2.92%

    Cogent Communications Holdings Inc.

    CCOI,
    -2.10%
    2.81%

    Kosmos Energy Ltd.

    KOS,
    +5.62%
    2.68%

    VeriSign Inc.

    VRSN,
    -0.43%
    2.15%

    Chemed Corp.

    CHE,
    -0.73%
    2.06%

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

    BRK.B,
    -1.18%
    2.00%

    Saia Inc.

    SAIA,
    -4.36%
    1.97%

    Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

    MPWR,
    -0.24%
    1.96%

    Entegris Inc.

    ENTG,
    -0.17%
    1.93%

    Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A

    LAZR,
    -6.90%
    0.96%

    Source: Natixis Funds

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for a detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch.com quote page.

    Fund performance

    The Natixis Vaughan Select Fund was established on June 29, 2012. Here’s a 10-year chart showing the total return of the fund’s Class A shares against that of the S&P 500, with dividends reinvested. Sales charges are excluded from the chart and the performance numbers. In the current environment for mutual-fund distribution, sales charges are often waived for purchases of new shares through investment advisers.


    FactSet

    Here’s a comparison of returns for 2022 and average annual returns for various periods of the fund’s Class A shares to that of the S&P 500 and its Morningstar fund category through Oct. 18:

     

    Total return – 2022 through Oct. 18

    Average return – 3 Years

    Average return – 5 Years

    Average return – 10 years

    Vaughan Nelson Select Find – Class A

    -20.2%

    11.8%

    10.8%

    13.0%

    S&P 500

    -21.0%

    9.4%

    9.7%

    12.0%

    Morningstar Large Blend category

    -20.3%

    8.1%

    8.2%

    10.7%

    Sources: Morningstar, FactSet

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  • These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

    These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

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    This may surprise you: Wall Street analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 8% during 2023, despite all the buzz about a possible recession as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to quell inflation.

    Ken Laudan, a portfolio manager at Kornitzer Capital Management in Mission, Kan., isn’t buying it. He expects an “earnings recession” for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.78%

    — that is, a decline in profits of around 10%. But he also expects that decline to set up a bottom for the stock market.

    Laudan’s predictions for the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and bottom

    Laudan, who manages the $83 million Buffalo Large Cap Fund
    BUFEX,
    -2.86%

    and co-manages the $905 million Buffalo Discovery Fund
    BUFTX,
    -2.82%
    ,
    said during an interview: “It is not unusual to see a 20% hit [to earnings] in a modest recession. Margins have peaked.”

    The consensus among analysts polled by FactSet is for weighted aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 to total $238.23 a share in 2023, which would be an 8% increase from the current 2022 EPS estimate of $220.63.

    Laudan said his base case for 2023 is for earnings of about $195 to $200 a share and for that decline in earnings (about 9% to 12% from the current consensus estimate for 2022) to be “coupled with an economic recession of some sort.”

    He expects the Wall Street estimates to come down, and said that “once Street estimates get to $205 or $210, I think stocks will take off.”

    He went further, saying “things get really interesting at 3200 or 3300 on the S&P.” The S&P 500 closed at 3583.07 on Oct. 14, a decline of 24.8% for 2022, excluding dividends.

    Laudan said the Buffalo Large Cap Fund was about 7% in cash, as he was keeping some powder dry for stock purchases at lower prices, adding that he has been “fairly defensive” since October 2021 and was continuing to focus on “steady dividend-paying companies with strong balance sheets.”

    Leaders for the stock market’s recovery

    After the market hits bottom, Laudan expects a recovery for stocks to begin next year, as “valuations will discount and respond more quickly than the earnings will.”

    He expects “long-duration technology growth stocks” to lead the rally, because “they got hit first.” When asked if Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +6.14%

    and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    +3.69%

    were good examples, in light of the broad decline for semiconductor stocks and because both are held by the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, Laudan said: “They led us down and they will bounce first.”

    Laudan said his “largest tech holding” is ASML Holding N.V.
    ASML,
    +3.79%
    ,
    which provides equipment and systems used to fabricate computer chips.

    Among the largest tech-oriented companies, the Buffalo Large Cap fund also holds shares of Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +3.09%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +3.88%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +6.63%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    +3.91%

    GOOGL,
    +3.73%
    .

    Laudan also said he had been “overweight’ in UnitedHealth Group Inc.
    UNH,
    +1.77%
    ,
    Danaher Corp.
    DHR,
    +2.64%

    and Linde PLC
    LIN,
    +2.25%

    recently and had taken advantage of the decline in Adobe Inc.’s
    ADBE,
    +2.32%

    price following the announcement of its $20 billion acquisition of Figma, by scooping up more shares.

    Summarizing the declines

    To illustrate what a brutal year it has been for semiconductor stocks, the iShares Semiconductor ETF
    SOXX,
    +2.12%
    ,
    which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    +2.29%

    of 30 U.S.-listed chip makers and related equipment manufacturers, has dropped 44% this year. Then again, SOXX had risen 38% over the past three years and 81% for five years, underlining the importance of long-term thinking for stock investors, even during this terrible bear market for this particular tech space.

    Here’s a summary of changes in stock prices (again, excluding dividends) and forward price-to-forward-earnings valuations during 2022 through Oct. 14 for every stock mentioned in this article. The stocks are sorted alphabetically:

    Company

    Ticker

    2022 price change

    Forward P/E

    Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    +3.09%
    -22%

    22.2

    30.2

    Adobe Inc.

    ADBE,
    +2.32%
    -49%

    19.4

    40.5

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +6.63%
    -36%

    62.1

    64.9

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD,
    +3.69%
    -61%

    14.7

    43.1

    ASML Holding N.V. ADR

    ASML,
    +3.79%
    -52%

    22.7

    41.2

    Danaher Corp.

    DHR,
    +2.64%
    -23%

    24.3

    32.1

    Alphabet Inc. Class C

    GOOG,
    +3.91%
    -33%

    17.5

    25.3

    Linde PLC

    LIN,
    +2.25%
    -21%

    22.2

    29.6

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    +3.88%
    -32%

    22.5

    34.0

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +6.14%
    -62%

    28.9

    58.0

    UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    UNH,
    +1.77%
    2%

    21.5

    23.2

    Source: FactSet

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 declined to 16.9 as of the close on Oct. 14 from 24.5 at the end of 2021, while the forward P/E for SOXX declined to 13.2 from 27.1.

    Don’t miss: This is how high interest rates might rise, and what could scare the Federal Reserve into a policy pivot

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  • Dow books 630-point drop after strong jobs data rattles investors, but stocks cement weekly gains

    Dow books 630-point drop after strong jobs data rattles investors, but stocks cement weekly gains

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    U.S. stocks finished sharply lower Friday, but still booked their best weekly gains in a month, after September jobs data showed an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate that’s anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep tightening monetary policy.

    Investors also weighed a profit warning at a leading microchip maker ahead of next week’s increase in quarterly earnings results.

    What happened
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      -2.11%

      fell 630.15 points, or 2.1%, ending at 29,296.79, but off the session low of 29,142.66.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -2.80%

      dropped 104.86 points, or 2.8%, closing at 3,639.66.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -3.80%

      shed 420.91 points, or 3.8%, to finish at 10,652.40.

    Stocks posted back-to-back losses, trimming weekly gains, but recorded their best weekly gains since Sept. 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Read: Will the stock market be open on Columbus Day?

    What drove markets

    Stocks recorded sharp losses Friday after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% from an August reading of 3.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%.

    Still, a powerful rally earlier in the week boosted all three major stock indexes to weekly gains, a departure from three straight weekly losses, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    “It’s manic. We are all on edge,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management, of the sharp market swings.

    “Any piece of good news is a cause for an explosive rally,” Engelke said by phone. On the flip side, he pegged technology-based trading “in an illiquid and emotional market” as exacerbating Friday’s selloff.

    “It’s a reflection that people have re-entered the mind-set that the Fed is going to be raising rates at a rapid clip, probably for longer than what they might have suspected at the start of the week,” said Robert Pavlik, a senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management, by phone.

    Pavlik expects the Fed to keep tightening financial conditions to try to head off inflation. “But once we turn the corner, and the economy slows down, the Fed probably will be more aggressive in cutting rates on the way down.”

    In addition, the Fed has been “draining liquidity from the system at a remarkable pace,” wrote Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, in a Friday client note, while pointing to an astounding $1.3 trillion decline in the central bank’s balance sheet since the December 2021 peak.

    Pavlik at Dakota Wealth said he anticipates the Fed will start slowing interest rate hikes by mid-next year, which likely means continued pressure for the stock market, particularly with a backdrop of big oil-price
    CL00,
    +5.37%

    gains this week after global crude producers voted to cut monthly production and with the U.S. dollar’s
    DXY,
    +0.44%

    surge this year against a basket of rival currencies.

    U.S. crude oil prices climbed for a fifth day in a row on Friday to settle at $92.64 a barrel, while booking at 16.5% weekly gain.

    New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that benchmark interest rates likely need to hit 4.5% over time. The Fed’s policy rate now sits in a 3%-3.25% range, up from a zero-0.25% range a year ago.

    The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.889%

    climbed to 3.883% Friday, as the key metric used to gauge the affordability of credit for businesses, household and the economy posted 10 straight weeks of gains, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Read: Bond markets facing historic losses grow anxious of Fed that ‘isn’t blinking yet’

    Investors continued to hope for relief on the inflation front and will be monitoring next week’s release of the September consumer-price index, as well as corporate earnings season as it picks up.

    Companies in focus
    • Twitter Inc.
      TWTR,
      -0.43%

      shares fell 0.4% Friday after a judge delayed a looming trial between the company and Elon Musk to allow the Tesla Inc.
      TSLA,
      -6.32%

      CEO more time to close his $44 billion acquisition of the social media platform.

    • Besides the jobs report, investors weighed a profit warning from microchip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, which said the PC market weakened significantly during the quarter. AMD shares fell 13.9%, and rivals including Nvidia Corp. NVDA and Intel Corp. INTC also closed lower.

    • U.S. cannabis stocks were choppy Friday, with the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF
      MSOS,
      -2.80%

      ending lower, following steep gains earlier in the week after President Joe Biden said the U.S. would consider de-scheduling cannabis from its current position as a Schedule 1 narcotic under federal law.

    —Steven Goldstein contributed reporting to this article

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