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Radioactive material shuts down elementary school
Radioactive material shuts down elementary school – CBS News
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Planning for the chaotic post-Putin world
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Vladimir Putin in power has brutalized millions as he careens into tyranny.
Yet Vladimir Putin out of power will bring its own brand of chaos: a Shakespearean knife-fight for power; unleashed regional leaders; a nuclear arsenal up for grabs.
For now, few want to publicly talk about that post-Putin world, wary of the perception of meddling in domestic politics. But privately, western countries and analysts are plotting the scenarios that could unfold when Putin inevitably departs — and how Ukraine’s allies should react.
“I will be careful speculating too much about the domestic political situation in Russia,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said last week when asked how the alliance was preparing for the possibility of the Russian leader leaving office.
“Regardless of what different analyses may indicate, I think what we need to do at NATO is to be prepared for all eventualities and when it comes to Ukraine, be prepared to continue to support them,” he said.
One consensus: It won’t be a clean transition, posing myriad dilemmas that could strain Western allies. How much can — and should — they influence the succession process? What should they do if a Russian republic breaks away? What relationship should they pursue with Putin’s successor?
“We should put aside any illusions that what happens next immediately is democracy,” said Laurie Bristow, a former British ambassador to Russia.
“What I think happens next,” he added, “is probably a time of troubles.”
An explosive succession fight
For now, Putin is in a safe position. He still controls the state apparatus, and the military is executing his murderous orders in Ukraine.
But the Russian leader’s flailing invasion of Ukraine has diminished his position at home and deepened uncertainties over who would take over, and how.
“To manage a stable succession when the time comes — which will in Putin’s mind be a time of his choosing — then you need a high degree of elite consensus,” said Bristow, who served as the United Kingdom’s envoy in Moscow from 2016 until 2020.
“What they’ve done now is break that consensus,” he said, noting there is now more vying for power within the Kremlin.
That fighting could turn bloody once the Kremlin’s top job finally opens up.
“This could get very Shakespearean, think King Lear, or [the] Roman Empire, like I, Claudius, or Games of Thrones, very quickly,” said William Alberque, a former director of NATO’s arms control center.
Alexander Vershbow, a former senior U.S. and NATO official, said the most likely scenario was still a “smooth transition” within Putin’s current inner circle — but he conceded that toppling tyrants can beget turmoil. “There could be internal instability,” he said, “and things become very unpredictable in authoritarian systems, in personalistic dictatorships.”
Bristow, the former British ambassador, warned Western powers to stay out of such succession fights: “I think we have to recognize the limits of our ability to influence these outcomes.”
Although, the ex-envoy conceded, “we certainly have an interest in the outcome.”
Nukes = power
Russia is sitting on the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, featuring thousands of warheads that can each inflict massive destruction, death and trauma on a population.
The arsenal has long been a source of Russian strength on the world stage and a dominant part of its global image — for years, the possibility of a Kremlin nuclear strike dominated the public imagination in the U.S. and elsewhere.
In a period of leadership uncertainty, that arsenal could become a coveted symbol of power. That would put focus on the Russian military’s nuclear protector, the 12th Main Directorate, or GUMO.
“There’s a real possibility,” said Alberque, “that there would be deadly competition — competition to include people trying to rally different parts of the military — particularly the 12th GUMO that controls Russia’s nuclear arsenal.”
Rogue regions
Put simply, Russia is the largest country in the world, stretching across 11 time zones and climbing from the Caucasus to the Arctic.
While Putin may seem to hold a despotic grip on that entire expanse, there are a number of Russian republics with more tenuous connections to Moscow — and some with ambitious political figures. A power vacuum in a faraway capital could present an opening for local leaders to seize more control.
While most analysts believe the Russian Federation would largely hold together through a battle for Kremlin control, they acknowledge the Russian government has long feared fragmentation.
In the event of such factional fighting, all eyes will be on Ramzan Kadyrov, the brutal head of the Chechen Republic.
“Does he throw his weight behind a competing faction? Or does he say, ‘I’m good with a decade of massive Russian subsidies — now let’s break off, and I can probably rule Chechnya and Dagestan; I can have my own empire here’?” said Alberque, now a director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine could also come back to haunt the Kremlin.
Vershbow, a former American ambassador to Russia, said there is a “low probability” of disintegration but noted that “ironically” Putin’s annexation of areas in eastern Ukraine “could be cited as a precedent by separatist leaders inside the Russian Federation, to say ‘borders are now up for grabs’.”
A return of the reset debate
Once a new leadership team is in place, that’s when the most bedeviling policy debates will begin for Western governments.
With Putin off the political stage, some officials — in particular in western Europe — may argue there is an opportunity to forge a fresh relationship with Moscow.
The U.S. infamously offered Russia a symbolic “reset” button at the start of Barack Obama’s presidency, only to see relations deteriorate further. And Germany for years preached the gospel of economic engagement with Russia, only to declare a historic “Zeitenwende,” or turning point, after Moscow’s invasion.
With new leadership in the Kremlin, Germany may say “oh, Zeitenwende, never mind. Let’s push the U.S. to do another reset with the new Russian leader,” Alberque said.
Inevitably, NATO’s eastern wing would deplore such overtures. They’d argue “Russia never changes,” Alberque said, and lean on allies to not recede from the more assertive NATO stance adopted since the war began.
Polish Minister for National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak made exactly that point to POLITICO.
“Russia in a version with Tsar as a leader was the same like Russia in a version with a secretary-general of Communist party as a leader, and now it’s the same as Vladimir Putin as a leader,” he said.
“What is important from our perspective,” he added, “is to isolate Russia.”
For now, there is no expected Putin successor. But officials say they are expecting a regime with a similar ideology — or one even more extreme.
Jānis Garisons, a Latvian state secretary, pointed out that Putin has already jailed critics — and possible future leaders — like Alexei Navalny, and only more hardliners on the outside are ready to step in.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen at the Bocharov Ruchei state residence | Pool photo by Vladimir Smirnov/AFP via Getty Images “The only people who criticize him” and not in prison “are from the right wing,” Garisons said.
“We should not fall victim to a junta or some group of people coming forward saying that they want a reset,” said Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, “if it’s still the same.”
One major difference this time around is that Europe is now less economically dependent on Moscow, reducing a key incentive to re-engage.
“We have gone a long way to stop buying from Russia,” said a senior EU diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “That would leave only the issues of nukes — but that will largely be with the Americans.”
Another signal Western leaders can look for is whether a Putin successor cooperates with international organizations seeking to prosecute Russian war crimes in Ukraine — a possibility, of course, that seems remote.
“Only a Russia determined to cooperate, would not represent a threat to Europe,” said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský.
Yet for all the assumptions that a cooperative Russia is far off, several current and former officials cautioned that western governments must combine deterrence with a longer-term effort to engage Russian civil society.
The Western alliance, said Bristow, must consider “how we reach out to Russian society beyond the Kremlin, to the next generation of Russian politicians, thinkers, intellectuals, teachers, businesspeople, to kind of spell out an alternative vision to the one they’ve got.”
“My sense,” he added, “is that quite a lot of people in Russia would like to do that.”
Paul McLeary contributed reporting
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Radioactive waste found at Missouri elementary school
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FLORISSANT, Mo. (AP) — There is significant radioactive contamination at an elementary school in suburban St. Louis where nuclear weapons were produced during World War II, according to a new report by environmental investigation consultants.
The report by Boston Chemical Data Corp. confirmed fears about contamination at Jana Elementary School in the Hazelwood School District in Florissant raised by a previous Army Corps of Engineers study.
The new report is based on samples taken in August from the school, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Boston Chemical did not say who or what requested and funded the report.
“I was heartbroken,” said Ashley Bernaugh, president of the Jana parent-teacher association who has a son at the school. “It sounds so cliché, but it takes your breath from you.”
The school sits in the flood plain of Coldwater Creek, which was contaminated by nuclear waste from weapons production during World War II. The waste was dumped at sites near the St. Louis Lambert International Airport, next to the creek that flows to the Missouri River. The Corps has been cleaning up the creek for more than 20 years.
The Corps’ report also found contamination in the area but at much at lower levels, and it didn’t take any samples within 300 feet of the school. The most recent report included samples taken from Jana’s library, kitchen, classrooms, fields and playgrounds.
Levels of the radioactive isotope lead-210, polonium, radium and other toxins were “far in excess” of what Boston Chemical had expected. Dust samples taken inside the school were found to be contaminated.
Inhaling or ingesting these radioactive materials can cause significant injury, the report said.
“A significant remedial program will be required to bring conditions at the school in line with expectations,” the report said.
The new report is expected to be a major topic at Tuesday’s Hazelwood school board meeting. The district said in a statement that it will consult with its attorneys and experts to determine the next steps.
“Safety is absolutely our top priority for our staff and students,” board president Betsy Rachel said Saturday.
Christen Commuso with the Missouri Coalition for the Environment presented the results of the Corps’ study to the school board in June after obtaining a copy through a Freedom of Information Act request.
“I wouldn’t want my child in this school,” she said. “The effect of these toxins is cumulative.”
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Radioactive waste found at Missouri elementary school
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FLORISSANT, Mo. — There is significant radioactive contamination at an elementary school in suburban St. Louis where nuclear weapons were produced during World War II, according to a new report by environmental investigation consultants.
The report by Boston Chemical Data Corp. confirmed fears about contamination at Jana Elementary School in the Hazelwood School District in Florissant raised by a previous Army Corps of Engineers study.
The new report is based on samples taken in August from the school, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Boston Chemical did not say who or what requested and funded the report.
“I was heartbroken,” said Ashley Bernaugh, president of the Jana parent-teacher association who has a son at the school. “It sounds so cliché, but it takes your breath from you.”
The school sits in the flood plain of Coldwater Creek, which was contaminated by nuclear waste from weapons production during World War II. The waste was dumped at sites near the St. Louis Lambert International Airport, next to the creek that flows to the Missouri River. The Corps has been cleaning up the creek for more than 20 years.
The Corps’ report also found contamination in the area but at much at lower levels, and it didn’t take any samples within 300 feet of the school. The most recent report included samples taken from Jana’s library, kitchen, classrooms, fields and playgrounds.
Levels of the radioactive isotope lead-210, polonium, radium and other toxins were “far in excess” of what Boston Chemical had expected. Dust samples taken inside the school were found to be contaminated.
Inhaling or ingesting these radioactive materials can cause significant injury, the report said.
“A significant remedial program will be required to bring conditions at the school in line with expectations,” the report said.
The new report is expected to be a major topic at Tuesday’s Hazelwood school board meeting. The district said in a statement that it will consult with its attorneys and experts to determine the next steps.
“Safety is absolutely our top priority for our staff and students,” board president Betsy Rachel said Saturday.
Christen Commuso with the Missouri Coalition for the Environment presented the results of the Corps’ study to the school board in June after obtaining a copy through a Freedom of Information Act request.
“I wouldn’t want my child in this school,” she said. “The effect of these toxins is cumulative.”
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Pakistan summons US ambassador after Biden calls country ‘dangerous’ for having nuclear weapons | CNN Politics
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Pakistani officials said Saturday they had summoned the US ambassador to the country following recent comments made by President Joe Biden that doubted the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
Speaking at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Los Angeles on Thursday, Biden said Pakistan was “one of the most dangerous nations in the world” because it has “nuclear weapons without any cohesion,” according to a transcript of the speech released by the White House.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif shot back Saturday at Biden’s comments. “Pakistan is a responsible nuclear state and we are proud that our nuclear assets have the best safeguards as per IAEA requirements,” Sharif tweeted, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency. “We take these safety measures with the utmost seriousness. Let no one have any doubts.”
Pakistan’s foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, said that he was surprised by Biden’s remarks and that, after speaking with Sharif, they summoned Ambassador Donald Blome to the Foreign Office of Pakistan.
A US official confirmed to CNN that Blome was summoned by Pakistan’s foreign ministry following Biden’s remarks. Those remarks frustrated US diplomats in the region, the US official said.
Speaking to reporters Saturday at a news conference in Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, Bhutto-Zardari echoed Sharif on his country’s atomic safety record. “We meet all, each and every international standard in accordance with the IAEA,” Bhutto-Zardari said.
Bhutto-Zardari blamed Biden’s comments on a misunderstanding: “I believe this is exactly the sort of misunderstanding that is created when there is a lack of engagement and luckily, we have embarked on a journey of engagement,” he said.
CNN has reached out to the US State Department for comment.
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Pakistan hits back at Biden’s ‘dangerous nation’ comment
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ISLAMABAD — Pakistan pushed back Saturday against a comment by President Joe Biden in which he called the South Asian country “one of the most dangerous nations in the world.”
Biden was at an informal fundraising dinner at a private residence in Los Angeles on Thursday sponsored by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee when he made the comment. Speaking about China and its leader Xi Jinping, he pondered the U.S.’s role in relation to China as it grapples with its positions on Russia, India and Pakistan.
“How do we handle that?” he said, according to a transcript on the White House web page. “How do we handle that relative to what’s going on in Russia? And what I think is maybe one of the most dangerous nations in the world: Pakistan. Nuclear weapons without any cohesion.”
Pakistan’s current prime minister and two former prime ministers rejected the statement as baseless, and the country’s acting foreign secretary summoned the U.S. ambassador on Saturday for an explanation of Biden’s remarks.
“Pakistan’s disappointment and concern was conveyed to the US envoy on the unwarranted remarks, which were not based on ground reality or facts,” said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said earlier in Karachi that he believed it was the sort of misunderstanding that was created when there was a lack of engagement, apparently referring to the former government of Imran Khan and its perceived lack of engagement in international diplomacy.
“When Pakistan has nuclear assets we know how to keep them safe and secure, how to protect them as well,” Zardari said.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif in a statement rejected Biden’s remarks calling them factually incorrect and misleading. He said Pakistan over the years has proved itself to be a responsible nuclear state, and its nuclear program is managed through a technically sound command and control system. He pointed to Pakistan’s commitment to global standards including those of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Sharif said Pakistan and the U.S. have a long history of friendly and mutually beneficial relations. “It is our sincere desire to cooperate with the U.S. to promote regional peace and security,” he said.
Zardari, speaking to reporters, said if there is any question about nuclear weapons security in the region, it should be raised with Pakistan’s nuclear-armed neighbor, India. He said India recently fired a missile that landed accidentally in Pakistan.
Pakistan and India have been arch-rivals since their independence from British rule in 1947. They have bitter relations over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, which is divided between them and claimed by both in its entirety. They fought two of their three wars over Kashmir.
Two former prime minsters took to Twitter to respond to Biden’s comments.
Former premier Nawaz Sharif, the current prime minister’s brother, said Pakistan is a responsible nuclear state that is perfectly capable of safeguarding its national interests while respecting international law and practices. Pakistan became a nuclear state in 1998 when Sharif was in power for the second time.
“Our nuclear program is in no way a threat to any country. Like all independent states, Pakistan reserves the right to protect its autonomy, sovereign statehood and territorial integrity,” he said.
Former premier Imran Khan tweeted that Biden is wrong about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, saying he knows for a fact that they are secure. “Unlike US which has been involved in wars across the world, when has Pakistan shown aggression especially post-nuclearization ?”
Khan was ousted in April in a no-confidence vote in parliament and has put forward, without giving evidence, a claim that he was ousted as the result of a U.S.-led plot involving Sharif. The U.S. and Sharif deny the accusation.
Zardari noted that Biden’s statement was not made at any formal platform like a news conference but at an informal fundraising dinner. “I don’t believe it negatively impacts the relations between Pakistan and the U.S.,” he said.
Pakistan and the U.S. have been traditional allies but their relations have been bumpy at times. Pakistan served as a front-line state in the U.S.-led war on terror following the 9/11 attacks. But relations soured after U.S. Navy Seals killed al-Qaeda leader and 9/11 mastermind Osama bin Laden at a compound in the garrison city of Abbottabad, not far from Pakistan’s military academy in May 2011.
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BTS reunite for free concert to support South Korea’s World Expo bid | CNN
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K-pop boy band BTS reunited on Saturday for a concert in Busan in support of South Korea’s bid to host the World Expo 2030 in the southern port city.
The free concert – titled “BTS Yet To Come in Busan” – drew an audience of about 52,000 people to a stadium, according to the Yonhap News Agency.
A total of 100,000 were expected to visit the stadium and other areas, according to Busan Metropolitan City authorities, with some fans watching the event live on large screens set up at several places around Busan.
The concert followed the seven-member band’s announcement of a break in June from group musical activities to pursue solo projects, raising questions about the band’s future.
With BTS’ oldest member, Jin, who is turning 30 next year, facing South Korea’s mandatory military service, the country’s defense minister said in August that BTS might still be able to perform overseas while serving in the military.
Under a 2019 revision of the law, globally recognized K-pop stars were allowed to put off their service until 30. Military service is hugely controversial in South Korea where all able-bodied men aged between 18 and 28 must fulfill their duties as part of efforts to defend against nuclear-armed North Korea.
“If the seven BTS members feel the same way and if you guys have faith in us, we will overcome whatever happens to us in the future and we will perform with you guys and make music. Please have faith in us,” BTS leader RM told fans during the concert, without elaborating further.
Four countries – South Korea, Italy, Ukraine and Saudi Arabia – have submitted competing candidatures to organize World Expo 2030, according to the expo organizing body Bureau International des Expositions (BIE). The host country of the World Expo 2030 is expected to be elected next year.
In July, BTS were made official ambassadors for the World Expo 2030 in Busan, over 300 km (190 miles) southeast of capital Seoul.
BTS made their debut in June 2013 and became a worldwide sensation with its upbeat hits and social campaigns aimed at empowering young people.
Last year, BTS became the first Asian band to win artist of the year at the American Music Awards. The group met US President Joe Biden at the White House in May to discuss hate crimes targeting Asians.
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Upcoming Russian nuclear exercises a challenge for the West
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With Russia expected to soon carry out large-scale drills of its nuclear forces as President Vladimir Putin threatens to use them, the United States and its allies will be challenged to ensure they can spot the difference between exercises and the real thing.
Russia typically holds major annual nuclear exercises around this time of year, and U.S. and Western officials expect them perhaps in just days. They will likely include the test launch of ballistic missiles, U.S. officials say.
But with Putin having openly threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia in its unraveling invasion of Ukraine, some Western officials are worried Moscow could deliberately try to muddy the waters about its intentions.
“This is why you don’t want to have extraordinarily overheated rhetoric at the same time you’re going to do a nuclear exercise,” a Western official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Because then we do have an additional challenge to really be sure that the actions that we see, the things that are occurring, are actually an exercise and not something else.”
Still, the official expressed “high confidence” in the West’s ability to make this distinction.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg assured a news conference in Brussels that the alliance would monitor Russia’s annual nuclear drills very closely, as it has for decades.
At the White House, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Russia’s so-called “Grom” drills would involve large scale maneuvers of its strategic nuclear forces, including live missile launches. He described them as “routine.”
“While Russia probably believes this exercise will help it project power, particularly in light of recent events, we know that Russian nuclear units train extensively at this time of year,” Kirby said, adding the United States would “monitor that accordingly.”
A U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Russian drills were expected to be carried out about the same time as NATO’s own annual nuclear preparedness exercise, which is dubbed “Steadfast Noon” and will begin next week.
“We believe that Russian nuclear rhetoric and its decision to proceed with this exercise while at war with Ukraine is irresponsible,” the official told Reuters.
“Brandishing nuclear weapons to coerce the United States and its allies is irresponsible.”
The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.
Officials have so far said Putin has not yet taken steps to suggest he’s preparing to launch a nuclear strike, but Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric has intensified following a successful counter-offensive by Ukraine’s military over the past month.
In recent weeks Putin has proclaimed the annexation of Ukrainian territories and threatened to defend Russian land with nuclear weapons. A senior NATO official said on Wednesday any use of nuclear weapons by Russia might trigger a “physical response” from the alliance.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday after a meeting of NATO’s nuclear planning group in Brussels that he had not seen any “indications and warnings” that would cause a change to the U.S. nuclear posture.
Russia last exercised its nuclear forces in February, shortly before its invasion of Ukraine, in a move officials at the time believed was meant to discourage the West from supporting Kyiv.
The Western official expected drills meant to test “the Kremlin’s ability to provide control over the forces and to issue direction, and of the forces themselves to respond to that direction.”
The official anticipated that Russia would publicize aspects of the drills, and use them to drive home Moscow’s threats.
“We should expect that there will be nuclear rhetoric during the exercise, so that they can take advantage, strategic communications advantage, of the exercise itself,” the Western official said.
NATO’s own annual nuclear exercise was planned before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials said, adding it has been held regularly at around the same time of the year for over a decade. The bulk of the drills will take place more than 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) from Russia, the U.S. defense official said.
Fourteen NATO nations are expected to be involved in the alliance’s drills, which include fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads — but does not involve live bombs, the U.S. officials said, adding U.S. military B-52 bombers will participate.
“While we will continue routine activities to sustain our (nuclear) deterrent, there will be no special messaging around our exercises,” the U.S. defense official said.
“We think nuclear saber rattling is reckless and irresponsible. Russia may choose to play that game – but we won’t.”
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10/13: CBS News Mornings
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North Korea takes inspiration from Putin’s nuke threats
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TOKYO (AP) — For decades North Korea has threatened to turn enemy cities into a “sea of fire,” even as it doggedly worked on building a nuclear weapons program that could back up its belligerent words.
Now, as North Korea conducts another torrid run of powerful weapons tests — and threatens pre-emptive nuclear strikes on Washington and Seoul — it may be taking inspiration from the fiery rhetoric of the leader of a nuclear-armed member of the U.N. Security Council: Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
With Putin raising the terrifying prospect of using tactical nukes to turn around battleground setbacks in Ukraine, there’s fear that this normalization of nuclear threats is emboldening North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he puts the finishing touches on his still incomplete nuclear program.
“Putin and Kim feed off each other, routinizing the right to nuke a peaceful neighbor by repeating it without repercussion,” said Sung-Yoon Lee, an expert on North Korea at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. “Putin’s threats sound more credible than Kim’s, as there is bloodshed in Ukraine every day. But Kim’s threats must not be dismissed as empty bluster.”
After more than 40 missile launches this year — its most ever — there are a host of fresh signs that North Korea is becoming more aggressive in making its nuclear bombs the centerpiece of its military.
A recent two-week barrage of missile launches was meant, according to North Korean media, to simulate the use of its tactical battlefield nuclear weapons to “hit and wipe out” potential South Korean and U.S. targets. It’s believed to mark the first time that North Korea has performed drills involving army units tasked with the operation of tactical nuclear weapons.
The tests — all supervised by Kim — included a nuclear-capable ballistic missile launched under a reservoir; ballistic missiles designed for nuclear strikes on South Korean airfields, ports and command facilities; and a new-type ground-to-ground ballistic missile that flew over Japan.
State media announced Thursday the tests the previous day of long-range cruise missiles, which Kim described as a successful demonstration of his military’s expanding nuclear strike capabilities and readiness for “actual war.”
There are also indications that North Korea is taking steps to deploy tactical nuclear weapons along its frontline border with South Korea. The North has also adopted a new law that authorizes preemptive nuclear attacks over a broad range of scenarios, including non-war situations, when it perceives a threat to its leadership.
North Korea is still working to perfect its nuclear-tipped missile technology, but each new test pushes it closer to that goal.
“North Korea has been clearly emulating Putin’s approach in his war on Ukraine while using it as a window to accelerate arms development,” according to Park Won Gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Seoul’s Ewha Womans University.
In what’s seen as a reference to his nuclear arsenal, Putin has declared his readiness to use “all means available” to protect Russian territory. With a string of defeats in Ukraine leaving Putin increasingly cornered, observers worry that Putin could be tempted to explode a tactical nuclear weapon to avoid a defeat that may undermine his grip on power.
Battlefield nuclear weapons are intended to crush advancing enemy troops in one designated frontline section, and have a low yield compared to nuclear warheads fitted on strategic weapons. But even these types of nuclear weapons would expose huge numbers of civilians in densely populated Ukraine, and possibly Russia and other places, to radiation risks.
It would also have a devastating political impact, marking the first time nuclear weapons have been used since World War II and prompting rapid escalation that could end in all-out nuclear conflict.
The United States and its allies have said they are taking Putin’s threats seriously but won’t yield to what they described as Putin’s blackmail to force the West to abandon its support for Ukraine. Ukraine said it won’t halt its counteroffensive despite Russian nuclear strike threats.
U.S. officials have said they don’t believe that Kim is going to launch conventional or nuclear attacks because of what the North Korean leader sees happening in Ukraine. Rather, they see Kim as worried that North Korea may be left behind in the international influence battle and therefore escalating because Putin is getting all the attention.
North Korea’s missile launches are seen by many as presaging an eventual test of a nuclear device.
Such tests, besides putting Washington and Seoul on the defensive, may be meant to win talks, on North Korean terms, with Washington that could eventually get the North recognized as a legitimate nuclear power. That, in turn, would force the international community to ease crushing sanctions and, eventually, negotiate the removal of nearly 30,000 U.S. troops in South Korea.
Pyongyang’s ultimate goal, according to Lee, the Tufts professor, is to complete what Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, began in 1950 with the surprise North Korean invasion of South Korea and establish a Korean Peninsula ruled by the Kim family.
Putin’s moves in Ukraine could also help Kim by continuing to distract the United States from focusing on North Korea and deepening a divide on the U.N. Security Council where Russia and China side with North Korea and prevent additional sanctions over the North’s recent tests, said Park, the analyst in Seoul.
“North Korea is paying as much attention to the (Ukraine) situation as anyone,” Park said. If Putin gets away with using nukes without suffering major repercussions, North Korea will see that as boosting its own nuclear doctrine, Park said.
The Korean Peninsula is still technically at war because the 1950-53 conflict ended with an armistice not a peace treaty, and the two Koreas have a history of bloody skirmishes. North Korea fired artillery during South Korean military drills in 2010 that killed two civilians and two South Korean military members on a front-line island. An international panel also blamed the North for sinking a South Korean warship the same year, killing 46.
Similar future clashes could be followed by North Korean threats to use nuclear weapons, said Park. He noted that conventional military clashes between India and Pakistan increased after Pakistan acquired its own deterrent to counter its nuclear-armed rival, mainly because the perceived balance in strength emboldened the countries to carry out more aggressive military action.
Recent North Korean missile tests came despite a U.S. aircraft carrier in nearby waters and during trilateral naval drills between the United States, South Korea and Japan, Park said. “This shows the growing confidence they have in their weapons.”
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AP reporters Kim Tong-hyung in Seoul and Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this story.
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US State Department says Iran nuclear deal ‘not our focus right now’ | CNN Politics
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Washington
CNN
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The Iran nuclear deal is “not our focus right now,” US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Wednesday, noting the administration was instead focusing on supporting the protesters in Iran as efforts to restore the nuclear deal have hit yet another impasse.
“The Iranians have made very clear that this is not a deal that they have been prepared to make, a deal certainly does not appear imminent,” Price said at a department briefing.
“Iran’s demands are unrealistic. They go well beyond the scope of the JCPOA,” he said, using the acronym for the formal name of the deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
“Nothing we’ve heard in recent weeks suggests they have changed their position,” Price added.
The spokesperson said the administration’s current focus “is on the remarkable bravery and courage that the Iranian people are exhibiting through their peaceful demonstrations, through their exercise of their universal right to freedom of assembly and to freedom of expression.”
“And our focus right now is on shining a spotlight on what they’re doing and supporting them in the ways we can,” Price said.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in late September that he did not “see any prospects in the very near term” to bring about a return to the Iran nuclear deal.
In an interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes,” Blinken said that “Iran has continued to try to add extraneous issues to the negotiation that we’re simply not going to say yes to.”
“We will not accept a bad deal, the response that they’ve given to the last proposals put forward by our European partners have been a very significant step backwards,” he said.
A senior State Department official said at that time that “we’ve hit a wall” because of Tehran’s “unreasonable” demands.
Speaking to reporters during the UN General Assembly, the official said the UN nuclear watchdog’s probe into unexplained traces of uranium found at undisclosed Iranian sites remained the key sticking point.
“At the same time as Iran is standing against its people on the street, it’s standing in the way of the kind of economic relief that a nuclear deal would provide. So I think they have to explain that to their own people why, on the verge of the deal, they would choose this issue and jeopardize at this point the possibility of the deal,” the official said in late September.
Amid the standstill on the JCPOA, the Biden administration has unveiled a series of measures aimed at punishing the regime for its repression of the Iranian people and to try to support the protesters.
In late September, the US announced sanctions on Iran’s Morality Police following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in their custody.
In a statement, the US Treasury Department said it was sanctioning the morality police “for abuse and violence against Iranian women and the violation of the rights of peaceful Iranian protestors.”
Shortly thereafter, amid internet shutdowns by the Iranian government in the face of widespread protests over Amini’s death, the US government took a step meant to allow technology firms to help the people of Iran access information online.
Last week, the US issued additional sanctions on seven senior Iranian officials for the government shutdown of internet access and the violence against protesters, targeting Iran’s Minister of the Interior, Ahmad Vahidi, who oversees all Law Enforcement Forces that have been used to suppress protests, as well as its Minister of Communications.
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North Korea test-fires two long-range cruise missiles
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State media says the tests were another successful display of the country’s growing nuclear capability.
North Korea has test-fired a pair of long-range strategic cruise missiles, with leader Kim Jong Un lauding another successful display of the country’s tactical nuclear strike capability.
The test took place on Wednesday and was aimed at “enhancing the combat efficiency and might” of cruise missiles deployed to the Korean People’s Army “for the operation of tactical nukes,” state media KCNA reported on Thursday morning.
It was the latest in a series of weapons launches that have increased tension on the divided Korean peninsula and heightened fears Pyongyang might be about to conduct its first nuclear test in five years.
The cruise missiles travelled 2,000 km (1,240 miles) over the sea, according to KCNA, which said the projectiles hit their intended, but unspecified, targets.
Stressing that the test was another clear warning to its “enemies,” Kim said the country “should continue to expand the operational sphere of the nuclear strategic armed forces to resolutely deter any crucial military crisis and war crisis at any time and completely take the initiative in it”, according to KCNA.
State media has not reported regularly on the country’s missile launches in recent months, but has released a deluge of material in recent days covering various tests overseen by Kim [KCNA via Reuters] On Monday, state media reported that Kim had supervised two weeks of guided nuclear tactical exercises, including the test of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that was launched over Japan as a protest against recent joint naval drills by South Korea and the United States that involved the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan.
Mistake to dismiss tests
North Korean state media once reported routinely on the country’s weapons testing but has stopped doing so in recent months.
Analysts said while the recent “deluge of propaganda” could not be trusted, the tests should not be ignored.
“North Korea’s cruise missiles, air force, and tactical nuclear devices are probably much less capable than propaganda suggests. But it would be a mistake to dismiss North Korea’s recent weapons testing spree as bluster or saber-rattling,” Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, wrote in emailed comments.
“Pyongyang’s military threats are a chronic and worsening problem for peace and stability in Asia that must not be ignored. Policymakers in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington should not allow domestic politics and other challenges such as Russia’s war in Ukraine to prevent them from increasing international coordination on military deterrence and economic sanctions.”
North Korea’s cruise missiles usually generate less interest than ballistic weapons because they are not explicitly banned under United Nations Security Council resolutions.
Kim made acquiring tactical nuclear weapons—- smaller, lighter and designed for battlefield use — a priority at a key party congress in January 2021 and first tested a “strategic” cruise missile in September of that year.
Analysts said it was the country’s first such weapon to have nuclear capability and was a worrying development because, in the event of a conflict, it might not be clear whether it was carrying a conventional or nuclear warhead.
The country revised its nuclear laws last month to allow pre-emptive strikes, with Kim declaring North Korea an “irreversible” nuclear power, effectively ending the possibility of negotiations over its arsenal.
President Joe Biden unveiled the latest update to the United States national security strategy on Wednesday but it contained only a single reference to North Korea.
Daniel Russel, the top US diplomat for East Asia under former President Barack Obama, said this was striking, “not only because it passes so quickly past a persistent and existential threat, but also because it frames the strategy as ‘seeking sustained diplomacy toward denuclearization,’ when North Korea has so convincingly demonstrated its utter rejection of negotiations”.
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North Korea says Kim supervised cruise missile tests
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SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised tests of long-range cruise missiles, which he described as a successful demonstration of his military’s expanding nuclear strike capabilities and readiness for “actual war,” state media said Thursday.
Wednesday’s tests extended a record number of weapons demonstrations this year by North Korea, which has punctuated its testing activity with threats to preemptively use nuclear weapons against South Korea and the United States if it perceives its leadership as under threat.
Analysts say Kim is exploiting the distraction created by Russia’s war on Ukraine, using it as a window to accelerate arms development as he pursues a full-fledged nuclear arsenal that could viably threaten regional U.S. allies and the American homeland.
South Korean officials say Kim may also conduct a nuclear test in the coming weeks or months, escalating a pressure campaign aimed at forcing the United States to accept the idea of North Korea as a nuclear power that can negotiate economic and security concessions from a position of strength.
North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said the two missiles during Wednesday’s tests flew for nearly three hours, drawing oval and figure eight-shaped patterns above its western seas, and showed that they can hit targets 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) away. The tests demonstrated the accuracy and war-fighting efficiency of the weapon system that has already been deployed at army units operating “tactical” battlefield nuclear weapons, the agency said.
Kim after the tests praised the readiness of his nuclear combat forces, which he said were fully prepared for “actual war to bring enemies under their control at a blow” with various weapons systems that are “mobile, precise and powerful,” according to the report.
He said that the tests send “another clear warning to enemies” and vowed to further expand the operational realm of his nuclear armed forces to “resolutely deter any crucial military crisis and war crisis at any time and completely take the initiative in it.”
The missiles’ flight details and characteristics described in state media resembled what North Korea reported in January following the previous demonstration of its long-range cruise missile system, which was first revealed in September last year.
State media photos of Wednesday’s test showed a missile leaving an orange tail of flame as it shot out of a launch vehicle. Kim is seen smiling and clapping from a viewing station established inside an arched structure that appears to be a highway tunnel. Experts say the North may intend to use such structures to conceal its weapons before launch.
South Korea’s military didn’t immediately comment on the latest tests.
The tests were the first known weapons demonstrations by North Korea after it launched 12 ballistic missiles in a span of two weeks through Oct. 9 in what it described as simulated nuclear attacks on South Korean and U.S. targets. Those weapons included a new intermediate range ballistic missile that flew over Japan while demonstrating potential range to reach Guam, a major U.S. military hub in the Pacific, and a short-range missile fired from an unspecified platform inside an inland reservoir.
North Korea said those drills were meant as a warning to Seoul and Washington for staging “dangerous” joint naval exercises involving the nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in recent weeks, which were intended as the allies’ show of strength in the face of growing North Korean threats.
Concerns about Kim’s expanding nuclear arsenal has grown since his rubber-stamp parliament last month passed a new law that authorized preemptive use of nuclear weapons over a broad range of scenarios, including non-war situations, where it may perceive its leadership as under threat. South Korea’s military has since warned North Korea that it would “self-destruct” if it uses its bombs by triggering an “overwhelming” response from the allies.
While Kim’s intercontinental ballistic missiles targeting the American homeland have gathered much international attention, he has also been expanding his arsenal of shorter-range weapons aimed at overwhelming missile defenses in South Korea. The North describes some of those weapons as “tactical,” which experts say communicate a threat to arm them with small battlefield nukes and proactively use them during conflicts to blunt the stronger conventional forces of South Korea and the United States, which stations about 28,500 troops in the South.
North Korea has fired more than 40 ballistic and cruise missiles over more than 20 launch events this year, exploiting a divide in the U.N. Security Council deepened over Russia’s war on Ukraine. The council’s permanent members Moscow and Beijing have rejected U.S.-led proposals to impose tighter sanctions on Pyongyang over its intensified testing activity. Experts say the North’s next nuclear test, which would be its seventh overall since 2006, is likely to be the first that the Security Council fails to meet with new sanctions.
Nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have stalled since early 2019 over disagreements in exchanging the release of crippling U.S.-led sanctions against the North and the North’s denuclearization steps.
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Russia arrests 8 in bridge explosion as missile attacks in Ukraine lead to nuclear plant blackout
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Russia’s main domestic security agency said eight people were arrested over an explosion on a bridge that links Russia to the Crimean Peninsula.
Russia’s Federal Security Service, known by the Russian acronym FSB, said it arrested five Russians and three citizens of Ukraine and Armenia in the attack on the Kerch Bridge. A truck loaded with explosives blew up while driving across the bridge Saturday, killing four people and causing sections of road to collapse.
The span opened four years after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, serving as a symbol of Moscow’s regional dominance as well as a crucial route for getting military supplies to Ukraine and Russian travelers to a popular vacation destination.
The FSB alleged the detained suspects acted on orders of Ukraine’s military intelligence to secretly move the explosives by a convoluted route into Russia and forge accompanying documents.
The Russian security services have pointed the finger at Ukraine’s intelligence directorate and its head, Kyrylo Budanov. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry on Wednesday dismissed accusations of Ukrainian involvement.
“The entire activity of the FSB and the Investigative Committee is nonsense,” Defense Ministry spokesman Andriy Yusov told reporters.
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to the blast by ordering missile strikes across Ukraine, where his forces over the last month lost ground in the east and south as Ukraine’s military waged a counteroffensive.
The Ukrainian president’s office said on Wednesday that strikes Moscow ordered in retaliation for the bridge attack killed at least 14 people and wounded 34 in the last day. On Monday, Ukrainian authorities said Russian missiles killed 19 people, including five in Kyiv, the capital.
Meanwhile, the missile attacks caused a crippled nuclear plant in Ukraine to lose all external power for the second time in five days, increasing the risk of a radiation disaster because critical safety systems need electricity to operate, Ukraine’s state nuclear operator said Wednesday.
Ukrainian nuclear power operator Energoatom said the Zaporizhzhia plant suffered a “blackout” Wednesday morning when a missile damaged an electrical substation, leading to the emergency shutdown of the plant’s last external power source.
On-site monitors from the U.N.’s atomic energy watchdog reported the last remaining outside line to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was restored about eight hours later. The war-related interruption nonetheless highlighted “how precarious the situation is” at Europe’s largest nuclear plant, International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi said.
All six of the reactors were stopped earlier due to the war. But they still require electricity to prevent them from overheating to the point of a meltdown that could cause radiation to pour from Europe’s largest nuclear plant. Energoatom said diesel generators were supplying the plant but Russian troops blocked a convoy carrying additional fuel for the back-up equipment.
“Basically what we’ve got here is the weaponization of civil nuclear, perhaps for the first time,” Paul Dorfman, a nuclear expert at England’s University of Sussex said. “And in an increasingly unstable world, it’s important to understand this and what this implies for nuclear worldwide.”
Ukrainian workers later found a way to repair the line and connected the plant to the Ukrainian power grid, the company said. The chief of Energoatom, Petro Kotin, told The Associated Press last month the plant typically had enough diesel on hand to run the generators — “the station’s last defense before a radiation accident” for 10 days.
The bombardment also hit civilian buildings. Over the past two days, Russian strikes damaged about 1/3 of the country’s energy infrastructure, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko said Wednesday.
Ukraine’s presidential office said in a morning update that eight Ukrainian regions in southeast were affected by Russian shelling and attacks involving drones, heavy artillery and missiles in the previous 24 hours, while strikes on central and western parts of Ukraine had ceased.
More than a dozen missiles were fired at the city of Zaporizhzhia and its suburbs, damaging residential buildings. While part of a larger eponymous region that Moscow has claimed as its own in violation of international law, the city remains in Ukrainian hands. Russian forces control the area about 53 kilometers (33 miles) away by air where the nuclear plant is located.
Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, said Russian shelling left at least 14 people dead in the Zaporizhzhia region and the Donetsk region to the east. At least 34 people were wounded in five regions, he wrote on Telegram.
Ukraine’s southern command said on Wednesday its forces recaptured five settlements in the southern Kherson region, on the western fringe of an arc of Russian-controlled territory in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk are four regions recently annexed by Russia, a move condemned as illegal under international law by many countries and the U.N. secretary-general.
Despite the advance, Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said Ukrainian forces’ counteroffensive in the south was losing pace while regrouping in the east to deliver a “powerful blow” on the front line between the cities of Svatove and Kreminna in Luhansk region.
Western governments, in the wake of the punishing missile and drone strikes Russia carried out across Ukraine this week, were shipping new weapons systems to Ukraine or gearing up to provide more help: The U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group and NATO defense ministers held meetings in Brussels on Wednesday.
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Biden sends a careful but chilling new nuclear message to Putin in CNN interview | CNN Politics
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CNN
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It’s never going to feel normal to hear a president discussing the danger of “Armageddon” – especially now, on camera.
But Joe Biden used an exclusive CNN interview on Tuesday to send another careful, yet clear and chilling message to Russian President Vladimir Putin about the disastrous consequences of using nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine.
The first president since the 1980s to really have to game out calculations about nuclear arsenals and deterrence, Biden was asked by Jake Tapper whether he thought that Putin – who has warned he is prepared to use every option in Russia’s arsenal – might consider detonating one of the world’s most heinous weapons as an act of desperation in a losing war.
Biden replied: “I don’t think he will.”
But the President, who first touched on this subject at an off-camera fundraiser in New York last week, made crystal clear he was sending a public message to Putin about the dangers of thinking that using a lower yield, tactical nuclear bomb would be an isolated event.
“What I am talking about, I am talking to Putin. He, in fact, cannot continue with impunity to talk about the use of a tactical nuclear weapon as if that’s a rational thing to do,” Biden said, before warning of dangerous consequences of such a move.
“The mistakes get made, the miscalculation could occur, no one could be sure what would happen and it could end in Armageddon,” he said, again stressing that a nuclear blast that kills thousands of people could lead to events barreling way out of control.
Biden is stating the fear of some strategists who warn about a ladder of escalation that could occur if a nuclear bomb is used and triggers reprisals by the West – even though any initial US response would certainly go no further than conventional military action.
He also appears to be trying to create a narrative of deterrence around the specific situation in Ukraine. The logic of the US and Russia’s long-range strategic nuclear arsenals is that the use of them is deterred because a conflict would be suicidal for both sides. That equation does not exist in Ukraine, since the country has no nuclear arsenal and it’s hard to conclude that it represents a vital national interest that would lead Washington to respond in kind to Putin going nuclear. By stressing that even a tactical device – which could be small enough to destroy an airbase or large enough to reduce a city to ruins – could lead to something worse, Biden seems to be almost seeking to create a new chain of calculations in Putin’s mind.
Two moments in Tapper’s interview brought home the burden now borne by the man who is followed everywhere he goes by a military officer carrying the nation’s nuclear codes.
First the CNN anchor asked the President to state the US red line for the US and NATO in Ukraine and what Washington would do if Putin bombed a nuclear plant in Ukraine or set off a tactical nuclear weapon.
“It would be irresponsible for me to talk about what we would or wouldn’t do,” Biden said.
Then, Tapper prodded the President over whether the Pentagon had gamed out scenarios. Biden soberly replied: “The Pentagon didn’t have to be asked.”
Watch the full exclusive interview with President Joe Biden
Most experts and strategists estimate that there are many reasons why Putin would stop short of using a nuclear weapon – among them the possible risk of radioactive fallout crossing into Russia or the fact that the use of a tactical nuclear weapon may not actually be a sensible strategic option in the war.
But the fact he’s pushed himself into a corner, along with his obliviousness to civilian loss of life underscored again by his callous assaults on Ukrainian cities this week, suggests that a humanitarian impulse is unlikely to be part of his calculation. And Biden himself said in the interview that while he believed Putin was a “rational actor,” he had made significant miscalculations and his objectives were not rational. That leaves open the possibility of even more decisions that appear irrational to the West but may seem reasonable in Putin’s warped logic.
That is why Biden and experts who have dedicated their careers to staving off a nuclear apocalypse say the possibility that Putin may go nuclear must be taken so seriously – even if the chances remain very low and the US would likely be able to detect well ahead of time if Russia’s atomic devices were on the move.
“It’s not a probable event. It’s not even likely,” said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear non-proliferation expert and former president of the Plowshares Fund, said on CNN’s “Newsroom” on Tuesday.
“But this is a low probability, high consequence event. If he uses even one nuclear weapon, he’s bringing us into a whole new world. He’s causing massive damage. And he’s running the risk of escalation with exchanges from the West that could lead to further exchanges, et cetera.”
Cirincione explained that even if Putin’s saber rattling represented a political threat designed to scare the West, it cannot be discounted.
“He has the means. He has the doctrine that allows him to use it. And he has the motive. He is losing this war. He has to do something to try to turn the tide of battle in desperation. He might turn to a nuclear weapon.”
While some critics have faulted the President for mentioning words like “Armageddon” and comparing his rhetoric to that of Putin, the motivations of the two men are very different. At a minimum, the Russian leader is boasting about nuclear weapons to scare the world. Biden is speaking publicly to stave off the possibility of disaster.
One reason the war in Ukraine is so dangerous is that nearly eight months in, there remains no prospect of any genuine diplomatic process that could defuse it. Ukraine’s forces, using US and allied weapons systems, are making remarkable progress on the battlefield and are determined to repel an unprovoked invasion that has caused carnage and extensive destruction. Putin has thrown so much personal prestige and Russian blood into the war he can hardly afford any outcome he cannot spin as a win, despite his autocratic grip on Russia.
Biden signaled in the Tapper interview that he saw no real rationale to meet Putin when both leaders are expected to be at the G20 summit in Indonesia next month. But he did leave one intriguing door open to the Russian leader, saying he’d sit down with Putin if he were willing to discuss the fate of US basketball star Brittney Griner, who was sentenced in August to nine years in prison after pleading guilty to drugs smuggling. The US says Griner and another American, former US Marine Paul Whelan, have been wrongfully detained. Washington has offered to swap jailed Russian arms trafficker Viktor Bout for the two Americans.
“Look, I have no intention of meeting with him, but look, if he came to me at the G20 and said, ‘I want to talk about the release of Griner,’ I would meet with him, but that would depend,” Biden said.
The President also downplayed the idea that more generally there was anything to talk about.
“He’s acted brutally, I think he’s committed war crimes, and so I don’t… see any rationale to meet with him now.”
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Biden says he thinks Putin won’t use nuclear weapons, but threatening to do so is ‘irresponsible’
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An image showing Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting to discuss the Ukrainian peace process at the German federal Chancellery on October 19, 2016 in Berlin, Germany.
Adam Berry | Getty Images News | Getty Images
U.S. President Joe Biden said he doesn’t think Russian President Vladimir Putin will use nuclear weapons despite repeated threats to do so — even as the Russian leader continues to press on in the war in Ukraine.
“Well, I don’t think he will,” Biden said in an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper that was aired Tuesday. “But I think that it’s irresponsible for him to talk about it.”
Putin has indirectly threatened to use nuclear weapons. In a televised speech in September, he announced a partial military mobilization and said he would “certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people.” He added that he was not bluffing.
The White House has repeatedly said it takes Russia’s threats of nuclear war seriously but does not see indications of a present threat. Biden on Thursday warned of the “prospect of Armageddon” if Russia were to use nuclear weapons.
“The whole point I was making was, it could leader to just a horrible outcome,” Biden said Tuesday referencing his previous comments. “And not because anybody intends to turn it into a world war or anything, but… once you use a nuclear weapon, the mistakes that can be made, the miscalculations. Who knows what would happen?”
Biden said he believed Putin is a “rational actor who’s miscalculated significantly.”
He clarified that he believes Putin is rational but his objectives are not, and added that he believes the Russian leader has committed war crimes in Ukraine.
“He’s acted brutally. I think he’s committed war crimes.”
On Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden said: “I think he thought … he was going to be welcomed with open arms. That this was, this has been, the home of Mother Russia and Kyiv and, therefore, he was going to welcomed.”
“I think he just totally miscalculated it.”
Leaders of the Group of 7 met virtually Tuesday morning with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and agreed they would continue to back the besieged country against Russian aggression for “as long as it takes.”
In a statement released after the meeting G-7 leaders said Russia will face “severe consequences” if it uses chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
Biden told CNN he has no intention of meeting with Putin at the upcoming G-20 summit but would be open to talking if Putin approached him there about releasing imprisoned American Brittney Griner.
Any meeting with Putin regarding Ukraine, as the G-7 agreed to earlier Tuesday, would not happen without Ukrainian officials present, he added.
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A failed truce renewal in Yemen could further complicate US-Saudi relations | CNN
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Editor’s Note: A version of this story first appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a three-times-a-week look inside the region’s biggest stories. Sign up here.
Abu Dhabi, UAE
CNN
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After a rare six months of relative calm, Yemen’s warring sides last week failed to renew a truce deal, with calls from the United Nations for an extension falling on deaf ears.
With one side backed by Iran and the other by Saudi Arabia, it remains to be seen whether the US will support its Middle Eastern ally after last week’s whopping oil cut – seen as a snub from the oil-rich kingdom to the Biden administration ahead of the US midterm elections.
The country’s Iran-backed Houthis and their rival Saudi-led coalition had agreed on a nationwide truce in April, the first since 2016. The two-month truce was renewed twice but came to an end last week over eleventh-hour demands put forward by the Houthis with regards to public sector wages.
At the last minute, the Houthis imposed “maximalist and impossible demands that the parties simply could not reach, certainly in the time that was available,” said US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking in a statement, adding that diplomatic efforts by the US and the UN continue.
“The unannounced reasons [for not renewing the truce] are speculated to be that the Iranians asked the Houthis, directly, to help escalate things in the region,” said Maged Almadhaji, director of the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies.
“Iranians and Houthis are in a difficult political position,” Almadhaji told CNN, adding that Iranians are under immense pressure amid raging protests at home and might be trying to keep Gulf rivals at bay by keeping them occupied with Yemen’s conflict.
The few months of ceasefire were a breath of fresh air for millions of Yemenis who, in the last seven years of conflict, were driven to “acute need,” the UN said. The peace period saw the monthly rate of people displaced internally dip by 76%, and the number of civilians killed or injured by fighting lowered by 54%, said the UN last week.
Yemen has been described by the UN as the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis.
Lenderking said that some aspects of the initial truce are still being upheld, such as relatively low violence, continued fuel shipments that can still offload into the Houthi-held Hodeidah port as well as resumed civilian-commercial flights from Sanaa airport. But the risks are very high.
The Houthis have already warned investors to steer clear of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as they are “fraught with risks” – a message seen as a direct threat that the Iran-backed group is ready to strike once again.
“With the Houthis, it is always risky not to take their threats seriously,” Peter Salisbury, consultant at International Crisis Group, told CNN.
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have previously launched attacks on the oil-rich countries, mainly targeting oil fields and key airports. In March, Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on an Aramco oil storage facility in Jeddah. And in January, they said they were behind a drone strike on fuel trucks near the airport in Abu Dhabi.
Saudi Arabia has previously sounded alarms to its powerful US security ally over these attacks, criticizing the Biden administration over what it perceived as waning US security presence in the volatile Middle East.
Security agitation among Gulf monarchies was exacerbated by US nuclear talks with Iran earlier this year, where the possibility of lifted economic sanctions posed the risk of an emboldened Tehran that, it was feared, would, in turn, further empower and arm its regional proxies – predominantly the Houthis.
But the Houthis are already arguably emboldened, said Gregory Johnsen, a former member of the United Nations’ Panel of Experts on Yemen.
“I think Iran would like nothing better than to leave the Houthis in Sanaa on Saudi’s border as check against future Saudi behavior,” Johnsen told CNN.
Saudi Arabia’s strongest security ally has been the US, and traditionally the two countries’ unwritten agreement has been oil in exchange for security – namely against Iranian hostility.
But now, as Saudi Arabia defies the US with its latest OPEC oil cut, the two countries’ friendship is under increased strain. And with already existing reluctance in congressional politics to increase military support to Saudi Arabia, it remains unclear whether the US will respond with swift support to its Middle Eastern ally should violence flare, said Salisbury.
A number of US Democratic politicians have accused Saudi Arabia of siding with Russia, saying the oil cut should be seen as a “hostile act” against the US.
The threats made by certain US senators against Saudi Arabia after Wednesday’s OPEC oil cut – some of whom have called on US President Joe Biden to “retaliate” – are not credible, said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political science professor in the UAE, adding that the response from the Biden administration “has been more restrained.”
It is in America’s interest to protect Middle Eastern oil producers, Abdulla told CNN, especially as supply tightens amid the Ukraine war and stalled nuclear talks with Iran.
“At this moment in history, America needs Saudi Arabia, needs the UAE, just as much as we need them for security purposes,” Abdulla said.
US policy toward Yemen has in recent years been in disarray, analysts say. The Obama administration first backed the Saudi-led coalition in 2016, but levels of support later changed as evidence emerged of civilian casualties in the Saudi-led air campaign.
Saudi Arabia enjoyed extensive support for its Yemen policy during the Trump administration. In late 2019, Biden promised to make the kingdom a pariah and, a little over a year later, he slashed US support for Saudi Arabia’s offensive operations in Yemen, “including relevant arms sales.”
The US continues, however, to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia through the loophole of “defense.”
The Biden administration last August approved and notified Congress of possible multibillion-dollar weapons sales to both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, citing defense against Houthi attacks as a legitimate cause for concern.
“Now, the US is frustrated with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while it has no leverage with the Houthis,” said Johnsen. “The US has been lost at sea for the past year and a half when it comes to a Yemen policy,” he added, labelling it a situation largely “of its own making.”
While there is pressure within the US to sternly react to Saudi Arabia’s energy policies, it is yet to be seen how the US will respond to the developments in Yemen, where some say Washington would be wise to uphold its security guarantees.
“I don’t think it is in the best interest of America to reduce their military assistance to Saudi Arabia,” said Abdulla. “If they do, it will backfire on America more than many of these senators would imagine.”
At least 185 people, including at least 19 children, have been killed in nationwide protests across Iran since September, said Iran Human Rights (IHR), an Iran-focused human rights group based in Norway, on Saturday.
CNN cannot independently verify death toll claims. Human Rights Watch said that, as of September 30, Iranian state-affiliated media placed the number of deaths at 60.
Now in their third week, protests have swept across Iranian cities following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who died after being arrested by morality police and taken to a “re-education center” for not abiding by the country’s conservative dress code.
Here is the latest on this developing story:
- Iranian police on Sunday dispersed high school girls who gathered to protest in southwestern Tehran. Meanwhile, an eyewitness told CNN that in the southeastern part of the city, girls took to the street shouting “woman, life, freedom” and “death to the dictator.”
- The death toll from the crackdown on Saturday’s protests in Iran’s Kurdish city of Sanandaj has increased to at least four, according to the Iranian human rights group Hengaw on Sunday.
- Iran’s state broadcaster IRINN (Islamic Republic of Iran News Network) was allegedly hacked during its nightly news program on Saturday, according to the pro-reform IranWire outlet, which shared a clip of the hacking. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported on the hacking, saying that IRIB/IRINN’s 9 p.m. newscast was hacked for a few moments by anti-revolutionary elements.
- The internet connectivity monitoring service NetBlocks on Saturday said that Iran had shut off the internet in the Kurdish city of Sanandaj in an attempt to curb a growing protest movement amid reports of new killings.
Violent weekend as four Palestinians killed in West Bank, Israeli soldier killed in Jerusalem shooting
An Israeli soldier has died following a rare shooting at a military checkpoint in East Jerusalem on Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces said. The attack comes after a violent two days in the occupied West Bank where Israeli forces killed four Palestinians, Palestinian authorities said.
- Background: The shooting happened at a checkpoint of the normally quiet area near the Shuafat Refugee Camp in northeast Jerusalem, an area considered occupied territory by most of the international community. Video of the incident shows a man coming up to a group of soldiers and shooting them point blank before running away. Noa Lazar, an 18-year-old female soldier, was killed, and a 30-year-old guard was critically injured. In a statement, Prime Minister Yair Lapid called the attacker a “vile terrorist” and said Israel will “not rest until we bring these heinous murderers to justice.” Prior to the checkpoint attack, Israeli forces killed four Palestinians in the occupied West Bank over two days, according to Palestinian authorities. Two were killed in the Jenin Refugee Camp on Saturday when, the IDF said, clashes broke out as they came to arrest an “Islamic Jihad operative” that the IDF claimed was “involved in terrorist activities, planning and carrying out shooting attacks towards IDF soldiers in the area.” Another two, including a 14-year-old boy, were killed in separate incidents elsewhere in the territories. The occupied West Bank, especially the areas of Jenin and Nablus, is in an increasingly volatile and dangerous situation, as near-daily clashes take place between the Israeli military and increasingly armed Palestinians.
- Why it matters: More than 105 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces so far this year, making it the deadliest year for Palestinians in the occupied territories since 2015, according to Palestinian health authorities. Israel says most Palestinians killed were engaging violently with soldiers during military operations, although dozens of unarmed civilians have been killed as well, human rights groups including B’Tselem have said. Some 21 civilians and soldiers have been killed so far this year in attacks targeting Israelis.
US says a failed rocket attack targeted US and partnered forces in Syria
One rocket was launched at a base housing US and coalition troops in Syria on Saturday night, according to US Central Command. No US or coalition forces were injured in the attack, and no facilities or equipment were damaged, CENTCOM said in a statement.
- Background: The rocket was a 107mm rocket, and additional rockets were found at the launch site, CENTCOM said. The attack is under investigation. On September 18, a similar rocket attack using 107mm rockets was launched against Green Village in Syria, a base housing US troops. Three 107mm rockets were launched and a fourth was found at the launch site.
- Why it matters: The attack comes two days after US forces killed two top ISIS leaders in an airstrike in northern Syria, and three days after a US raid killed an ISIS smuggler. Although there is no attribution for the attack, such rocket launches are frequently used by Iranian-backed militias in Syria.
UAE president to meet with Putin during visit to Russia on Tuesday
UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Russia on Tuesday, UAE state-run news agency WAM said.
- Background: “During his visit, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed will discuss with President Putin the friendly relations between the UAE and Russia along with a number of regional and international issues and developments of common interest,” WAM said.
- Why it matters: The visit comes less than a week after OPEC+, the international cartel of oil producers, announced a significant cut to output in an effort to raise oil prices. The UAE is a member of the organization led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. CNN has reached out to the UAE government for comment.
Before clicking enter on your Google search today, take a minute to check out today’s ‘Google Doodle.’ Standing by a library and a lighthouse is prominent Egyptian historian Mostafa El-Abbadi, who would have turned 94 today.
Hailed as “champion of Alexandria’s Resurrected Library” by the New York Times, he was the key player in resurrecting the Great Library of Alexandria.
The son of the founder of the College of Letters and Arts at the University of Alexandria, El-Abbadi’s love for academia came at a very young age.
The intellectual went on to graduate from the University of Cambridge and returned home as a professor of Greco-Roman studies at the University of Alexandria, where his love for the Library of Alexandria grew.
El-Abbadi sought to restore the glory of the “Great Library” which disappeared between 270 and 250 A.D. – and he succeeded.
Combined efforts by the Egyptian government, UNESCO, and other organizations led to the opening of the Bibliotheca Alexandrina on October 16, 2002.
Despite being the main driver of the project, El-Abbadi was not invited to the ceremony after he became a critic of how the scheme was handled by the authorities.
“It became the project of the presidents, of the people who cut the rope, the people who stood on the front stage, and not of Mostafa El-Abbadi,” said Prof. Mona Haggag, a former student of El-Abbadi and head of the department of Greek and Roman archaeology at the University of Alexandria, according to the New York Times.
By Mohammed Abdelbary
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North Korea says missile tests are practice for ‘tactical nuclear strikes’ on South Korea | CNN
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Seoul, South Korea
CNN
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North Korean state media has broken its silence over the country’s recent spate of missile tests, claiming they were part of a series of simulated procedures intended to demonstrate its readiness to fire tactical nuclear warheads at potential targets in South Korea.
The Kim regime has tested ballistic missiles seven times since September 25, the latest of 25 launch events of ballistic and cruise missiles this year, according to a CNN count, raising tensions to their highest level since 2017.
Quoting leader Kim Jong Un, who oversaw the drills, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said the tests, which coincided with nearby military drills between the United States, South Korea and Japan, showed Pyongyang was ready to respond to regional tensions with by involving its “huge armed forces.”
KCNA said the series of seven drills of North Korea’s “tactical nuclear operation units” showed that its “nuclear combat forces” are “fully ready to hit and wipe out the set objects at the intended places in the set time.”
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said North Korea’s announcements Monday indicated potential progress in its missile program.
“What I find notable is that these launches are not framed as tests of the missiles themselves, but rather of the units that launch them. That suggests these systems are deployed,” Lewis said on Twitter.
KCNA said on September 25, North Korea workers took part in exercises within a silo under a reservoir to practice what it described as loading tactical nuclear warheads to check the swift and safe transportation of nuclear weapons.
Three days later, they simulated the loading of a tactical nuclear warhead on a missile that in the event of war that would be used in “neutralizing airports in South Korea’s operation zones.”
On October 6, North Korea practiced procedures that could initiate a tactical nuclear strike on “the enemies’ main military command facilities” and, on Sunday, enemy ports, Pyongyang’s state media said.
Among the key military installations in South Korea is the US Army’s Camp Humphreys, the largest US military installation outside of the United States with a population of more than 36,000 US servicemembers, civilian workers, contractors and family members.
Experts say that North Korea has likely manufactured some nuclear warheads – “20 to 30 warheads for delivery primarily by medium-range ballistic missiles,” Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda of Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, wrote in September.
But its ability to detonate them accurately on the battlefield is unproven.
Analysts noted that with Monday’s reports, North Korea broke six months of silence on its testing program. Before that, an announcement and images of the tests were usually made available the next day.
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said Pyongyang had “multiple motivations” for making an announcement Monday.
Besides providing a “patriotic headline” for domestic consumption on the 77th anniversary of its ruling party, “it is making explicit the nuclear threat behind its recent missile launches,” Easley said.
“The KCNA report may also be harbinger of a forthcoming nuclear test for the kind of tactical warhead that would arm the units Kim visited in the field,” he said.
South Korean and US officials have been warning since May that North Korea may be preparing for its first nuclear test since 2017, with satellite imagery showing activity at its underground nuclear test site.
The KCNA report said the recent drills, from September 25 to October 9, were designed to send a “strong military reaction warning to the enemies” and to verify and improve the country’s fighting capabilities.
In the report, Kim called South Korea and the United States “the enemies” and said North Korea doesn’t need to hold talks with them.
Kim further emphasized that Pyongyang will thoroughly monitor enemies’ military movements and “strongly take all military countermeasures” if needed, KCNA stated.
The United States, South Korea and Japan have all been active with military exercises during the North’s recent wave of drills.
A US Navy aircraft carrier strike group participated in several days of bilateral and trilateral exercises with South Korean and Japanese units that ended Saturday, a statement from the US Navy’s Task Force 70 said.
“Our commitment to regional security and the defense of our allies and partners is demonstrated by our flexibility and adaptability to move this strike group to where it is needed,” said Rear Adm. Michael Donnelly, commander of Task Force 70/Carrier Strike Group 5.
South Korea’s National Security Council on Sunday “strongly condemned” North Korea’s recent ballistic missile launches, and it said the South Korean military will further bolster its combined defense posture and deterrence through joint military drills with the US and trilateral security cooperation involving Japan.
Japan’s Joint Staff said the security environment around Japan was becoming “increasingly severe” and that drills with the US Navy were strengthening the alliance’s capability to respond to threats.
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N. Korea confirms nuke missiles tests to ‘wipe out’ enemies
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SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s recent barrage of missile launches were tests of its tactical nuclear weapons to “hit and wipe out” potential South Korean and U.S. targets, state media reported Monday, as its leader Kim Jong Un signaled he would conduct more provocative tests.
The North’s statement, released on the 77th birthday of its ruling Workers’ Party, is seen as an attempt to buttress a public unity behind Kim as he faces pandemic-related economic hardships, a security threat posed by the boosted U.S.-South Korean military alliance and other difficulties.
“Through seven times of launching drills of the tactical nuclear operation units, the actual war capabilities … of the nuclear combat forces ready to hit and wipe out the set objects at any location and any time were displayed to the full,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said.
KCNA said the missile tests were in response to recent naval drills between U.S. and South Korean forces, which involved the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan for the first time in five years.
Viewing the drills as a military threat, North Korea decided to stage “the simulation of an actual war” to check and improve its war deterrence and send a warning to its enemies, KCNA said.
North Korea considers U.S.-South Korean military drills as an invasion rehearsal, though the allies have steadfastly said they are defensive in nature. Since the May inauguration of a conservative government in Seoul, the U.S. and South Korean militaries have been expanding their exercises, which had been previously scaled back due to the pandemic and the now-dormant nuclear diplomacy between Pyongyang and Washington.
The launches — all supervised by Kim — included a nuclear-capable ballistic missile launched under a reservoir in the northeast; other ballistic missiles designed to strike South Korean airfields, ports and command facilities; and a new-type ground-to-ground ballistic missile that flew over Japan, KCNA reported.
North Korea has previously test-launched missiles from a submarine off its east coast. But the most recent was its first public test of a weapon from under an inland reservoir.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Seoul’s University of North Korean Studies, said North Korea likely aims to diversify launch sites to make it difficult for its enemies to detect its missile liftoffs in advance and conduct preemptive strikes.
KCNA said when the weapon launched from the reservoir was flying above the sea target, North Korean authorities confirmed the reliability of the explosion of the missile’s warhead, apparently a dummy one, at the set altitude.
Kim, the professor, said the missile’s estimated 600-kilometer (370-mile) flight indicated the launch could be a test of exploding a nuclear weapon above South Korea’s southeastern port city of Busan, where the Reagan previously docked. He said the missile tested appeared to be a new version of North Korea’s highly maneuverable KN-23 missile, which was modeled on Russia’s Iskander missile.
North Korea described the missile that flew over Japan as a new-type intermediate-range weapon that traveled 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles). Some foreign experts earlier said North Korea likely tested its existing nuclear-capable Hwasong-12 missile, which can reach the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam. But Kim, the professor, said the missile appeared to be an improved version of the Hwasong-12 with a faraway target like Alaska or Hawaii.
Worries about North Korea’s nuclear program deepened in recent months as the country adopted a new law authorizing the preemptive use of its bombs in certain cases and took reported steps to deploy tactical nuclear weapons along its frontline border with South Korea.
This year, North Korea has also carried out a record number of weapons tests with more than 40 ballistic and cruise missiles.
Some experts say Kim Jong Un would eventually aim to use his advanced nuclear arsenal to win a U.S. recognition of North Korea as a legitimate nuclear state, which Kim sees as essential in getting crippling U.N. sanctions on his country lifted.
Kim Jong Un said the recent launches were “an obvious warning” to South Korea and the United States, informing them of North Korea’s nuclear response posture and attack capabilities. Kim also repeated that he has no intentions of resuming the disarmament diplomacy with the United States now and would rather focus on expanding his weapons arsenal, according to KCNA.
“The U.S. and the South Korean regime’s steady, intentional and irresponsible acts of escalating the tension will only invite our greater reaction, and we are always and strictly watching the situation crisis,” KCNA said.
Kim also expressed conviction that the nuclear combat forces of his military would maintain “their strongest nuclear response posture and further strengthen it in every way” to perform their duties of defending the North’s dignity and sovereign rights.
South Korean officials recently said North Korea maintains readiness to perform its seventh nuclear test — its first such test in five years — while preparing to test a new liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile as well as a submarine-launched ballistic missile.
“North Korea has multiple motivations for publishing a high-profile missile story now,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. “Kim Jong Un’s public appearance after a month-long absence provides a patriotic headline to mark the founding anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party.”
“Pyongyang has been concerned about military exercises by the U.S., South Korea and Japan, so to strengthen its self-proclaimed deterrent, it is making explicit the nuclear threat behind its recent missile launches. The KCNA report may also be a harbinger of a forthcoming nuclear test for the kind of tactical warhead that would arm the units Kim visited in the field,” Easley said.
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Opinion: Biden’s eye-opening warning | CNN
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Editor’s Note: Sign up to get this weekly column as a newsletter. We’re looking back at the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and other outlets.
CNN
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“Can you tell me where we’re headin’?” Bob Dylan asks in his 1978 song “Señor.”
Is it “Lincoln County Road or Armageddon? Seems like I been down this way before. Is there any truth in that, señor?”
Yes, we’ve been here before, at least if you take President Joe Biden at his word. At a fundraiser in New York City Thursday, Biden said, “First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use (of a) nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going.” Referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to go nuclear in his war with Ukraine, the President observed, “I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”
As historian Julian Zelizer wrote, “Those were unsettling words for a nation to hear from the commander in chief.” Biden referred to “the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962, when the world seemed to teeter on the brink of nuclear war as the US and the Soviet Union faced off over missiles in Cuba.”
“Some planned escape routes from major cities while others stocked up on transistor radios, bottled water and radiation kits for their families. Although nobody knew it at the time, the danger was even greater than most thought as the leaders didn’t have full control of the situation. In the end, diplomacy won out, a deal was reached and disaster was averted.”
Nick Anderson/Tribune Content Agency But the prospect of annihilating humanity in a nuclear exchange is so great that such brinksmanship should never be allowed to happen again. Surely Presidents Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev were right when they agreed in 1985 that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
US national security officials privately said there was no new intelligence to indicate that Putin is moving to carry out his threat and couldn’t explain why Biden made the extraordinary statement. But its implications were clear, Zelizer argued. “This historic moment in the war between Russia and Ukraine is an important reminder that the US has let nuclear arms control fall from the agenda, and the consequences are dangerous.”
Putin’s back is against the wall as Ukraine continues to retake territory from the Russians. Peter Bergen wrote that Putin is “facing growing criticism from Russians on both the left and the right, who are taking considerable risks given the draconian penalties they can face for speaking out against his ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.”
“With even his allies expressing concern, and hundreds of thousands of citizens fleeing partial mobilization, an increasingly isolated Putin has once again taken to making rambling speeches offering his distorted view of history.”
One lesson of history is that military defeat endangers dictatorial leaders. “Putin’s gamble may lead to a third dissolution of the Russian empire, which happened first in 1917 as the First World War wound down, and again in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union,” Bergen noted. “It could unfold once more as Putin’s dream of seizing Ukraine seems to be coming to an inglorious end.”
It’s striking to recall, as Frida Ghitis did, that “seven months ago, some viewed Putin as something of a genius. That myth has turned to dust. The man who helped suppress uprisings, entered wars and tried to manipulate elections across the planet now looks cornered.”
In Ukraine, “Russia’s trajectory looks like a trail of war crimes, with hundreds of bombed hospitals, schools, civilian convoys, and mass graves filled with Ukrainians. And still Ukraine is pushing ahead, is doing very well in fact, and very possibly winning this war,” wrote Ghitis.
Lisa Benson/GoComics.com Biden took heat this summer for deciding to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and walking away with little commitment from the Saudis to expand oil production. And then last week, the Saudi regime was instrumental in OPEC+’s decision to actually cut oil production in a move that benefits it and other oil-producing states including Russia.
“So much for cozying up to the Saudis – President Joe Biden’s much-hyped fist bump with Mohammed bin Salman during a trip to the Middle East back in July has turned into something of a slap across the face from the crown prince,” wrote David A. Andelman.
In the US, gasoline prices have started rising after weeks of declines, adding to the burdens Democrats face in trying to hold onto control of Congress in the midterm elections a month from now.
Clay Jones “The OPEC production cutbacks could – indeed, should – backfire for Saudi Arabia and its complicit partners,” wrote Andelman. “There is growing sentiment in Congress to reevaluate America’s wider relationship with Saudi Arabia and especially the vast arms sales to the kingdom.”
Higher oil prices come on top of Europe’s emerging energy crisis, with Russia sharply reducing its export of natural gas to the continent. As a result, Germany is among the nations that have instituted tough new curbs on energy use, wrote Paul Hockenos.
“Step into my Berlin office today and you’ll find everybody is wearing sweaters – I wear two, with wool socks and occasionally a scarf. … At home, my little family has sworn off baths (swift showers please), and lights are on only in the rooms we’re occupying. We’ve invested in a wool curtain inside our apartment’s front door to keep out the draft.”
“My friend Bill … hasn’t turned his heating on yet this year – no one I know has – and wears a sweater at home. He also has a new method of showering: one minute under warm water, turns it off, lathers up, and then rinses off.”
“Timing is everything,” said Garrett Hedlund in the 2011 song of that name.
“When the stars line up
And you catch a break
People think you’re lucky
But you know it’s grace…”
It works in reverse too. Just ask Linda Stewart, a New Mexico educator in her 60s who decided to retire one year into the pandemic lockdown. “Finances would be a little tight for a while, but some outside projects would supplement my income, so I felt confident I would be able to handle it,” she wrote in a new CNN Opinion series, “America’s Future Starts Now,” which explores the key issues in the midterm campaigns.
But, Stewart added, “by the end of the second year of lockdown, inflation started taking a toll and money was getting uncomfortably tight. Soon I was in the red each month, just trying to keep up. The usual suspects were groceries and gas, which meant cutting back on some of the more expensive food items and cooking meals at home.”
“I stopped driving for anything other than essentials. And with the continuing drought here in the Southwest, utility bills went through the ceiling. I cut back on watering my garden and turned the furnace down a few degrees in the winter and the air conditioning up a few in the summer. I switched to washing clothes mostly in cold water and only running the dishwasher once a week.”
The economy is the issue Americans are most concerned about, and there are no quick, easy solutions to the inflation spike. The second part of CNN Opinion’s new series was a roundup of views on how to help people cope with higher costs.
Scott Stantis/Tribune Content Agency The Federal Reserve Bank is raising interest rates at a rapid pace to conquer inflation. The “tight labor market – and the rapid wage growth it has spurred – is causing inflation to become more entrenched,” wrote economist Gad Levanon for CNN Business Perspectives. To curb the rise in prices, “the Federal Reserve is likely to drive the economy into a recession in 2023, crushing continued job growth.”
Dana Summers/Tribune Content Agency At least 131 people have died due to Hurricane Ian. Why was it so deadly?
The storm’s course veered south as it approached Florida and rapidly intensified, Cara Cuite and Rebecca Morss noted. “Emergency managers typically need at least 48 hours to successfully evacuate areas of southwest Florida. However, voluntary evacuation orders for Lee County were issued less than 48 hours prior to landfall, and for some areas were made mandatory just 24 hours before the storm came ashore. This was less than the amount of time outlined in Lee County’s own emergency management plan.”
“While the lack of sufficient time to evacuate was cited by some as a reason why they stayed behind, there are other factors that may also have suppressed evacuations in some of the hardest hit areas.” Few people are aware of their evacuation zone, and some websites carrying that information crashed in the leadup to the storm’s arrival, Cuite and Morss wrote.
“People need time to decide what to do, pack belongings, find a place to go and arrange how to get there, often in the midst of heavy traffic and other complications and obstacles.” Other factors: “In addition to a false sense of security from prior near-misses among some residents, others who were in the areas of Florida hardest hit by Hurricane Ian may not have had any personal experience with such powerful storms. This is likely true for the millions of people who have moved to Florida over the past few decades…”
For more:
Adam H. Sobel: Where the hurricane risk is growing
Geoff Duncan, a Republican and the current lieutenant governor of Georgia, is unsure about Herschel Walker’s prospects in the upcoming election. The Republican Senate candidate has denied reports alleging he paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009.
“The October surprise,” Duncan wrote, “has upended the political landscape, throwing one of the nation’s closest midterm races into turmoil five weeks before Election Day, but it never had to be this way. Just as there should not be two Democrats representing a center-right state like Georgia in the US Senate, the Republican Party should not have found its chance of regaining a Senate majority hanging on an untested and unproven first-time candidate.”
“Walker won his Senate primary not because of his political chops or policy proposals. He trounced his opponents because of his performance on the football field 40 years ago and his friendship with former President Donald Trump – neither of which are guaranteed tickets to victory anymore.”
Drew Sheneman/Tribune Content Agency For more on politics:
SE Cupp: Herschel Walker’s ‘October Surprise’ won’t matter
Tim Kane: What the Biden administration is getting wrong on immigration
Nicole Hemmer: The Onion is right about the future of democracy
Dean Obeidallah: The single-minded goal of Trump-loving Republicans
Organic chemistry is a famously difficult course and a traditional prerequisite for students who want to go on to medical school. Maitland Jones Jr., a master of the field and textbook author, taught the course at NYU – until 82 of the 350 students taking it “signed a petition because, they said, their low scores demonstrated that his class was too hard,” Jill Filipovic noted.
Then the university fired him.
An NYU spokesman “told the (New York) Times in defense of their decision to terminate Jones’s contract that the professor had been the target of complaints about ‘dismissiveness, unresponsiveness, condescension and opacity about grading.’ It’s worth noting that according to the Times, students expressed surprise that Jones was fired, which their petition did not call for.”
Some of the student complaints may have been valid, noted Filipovic, but she added that the case “raises important questions, chief among them how much power students, who universities seem to increasingly think of as consumers (and some of whom think of themselves that way), should have in the hiring, retention and firing of professors…”
“There are real consequences … to making higher education primarily palatable to those paying tuition bills – particularly when it comes to courses like organic chemistry, which are intended to be difficult. Future medical students do in fact need a rigorous science background in order to be successful doctors someday. Whether or not Jones was an effective teacher for aspiring medical students is up for debate, but in firing him, NYU is effectively dodging questions about the line between academic rigor and student well-being with potentially life-and-death matters at stake.”
Alessandro Garofalo/Reuters The Securities and Exchange Commission fined Kim Kardashian nearly $1.3 million for failing to disclose she was paid to promote a crypto asset, EthereumMax, noted Emily Parker.
“This case reflects a much larger problem in the crypto industry: Celebrities are using their influence to promote cryptocurrencies, a notoriously complex and risky asset class, which can lead people to invest in coins or projects that they may not understand,” Parker observed.
“New coins and projects are constantly popping up, sometimes without sufficient warnings about the risks of investing … In such a fast-changing and confusing market, how do you distinguish winners from losers? It’s easy to imagine how a confident tweet by a celebrity could have a significant impact on a new investor.”
In agreeing to the fine, Kardashian “did a favor for the cryptocurrency industry. Such a high-profile example could cause other celebrities to think twice before shilling a token on social media.”
Bill Bramhall/Tribune Content Agency Alejandro Mayorkas: The security risk Congress needs to take seriously
Danae Wolfe: Stomping alone won’t wipe out the spotted lanternfly
Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza: Inside the prison where sunlight ceases to exist
Jeremi Suri and William Inboden: A generation of the world’s best leaders has died
Sara Stewart: ‘Dahmer’ debate is finally saying the quiet part about true crime out loud
Elisa Massimino: It’s time to shut down Guantanamo
Pete Brown: What ‘fancy a pint?’ really means
AND…
Rich Fury/Getty Images/FILE` Until recently, the late-night television formula ruled, as Bill Carter noted. “On the air after 11 p.m. with a charismatic host, some comedy, a desk, a guest or two, maybe a band and then ‘Good night, everybody!’” Late-night shows seemed to be holding their own despite the rise of cord-cutting and the move to streaming.
But that’s changing, as Trevor Noah’s decision to give up hosting “The Daily Show” suggested. Carter wrote, “What many people watch now is not television: It’s whatever-vision, entertainment by any means on any device. What’s on late night is now often seen on subscriptions – and not late at night.”
Noah is leaving on a high note “after a seven-year run, marked by an impressive body of comedy work and growing acclaim,” Carter observed. In succeeding Jon Stewart as the show’s host, Noah “had a different beat in his head from the start. He wanted to refashion the show with a wider comedy vision, one looking more out at the world, instead of purely in at the United States, all informed by Noah’s South African-born global perspective.”
“It was a wise choice. Following Stewart was always going to be a potentially crippling challenge. Noah took it on and remade the show to his own specifications. One major sign of that was how strikingly diverse the show became.”
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