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Tag: Nifty outlook

  • Stock Market Today: SGX Nifty, Asian markets, oil, dollar, LTIMindtree listing & more

    Stock Market Today: SGX Nifty, Asian markets, oil, dollar, LTIMindtree listing & more

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    Domestic stocks are likely to see a positive start to Monday’s trade amid optimism over easing Covid restrictions in China. Asian markets were trading largely higher in early trade while dollar was trading a bit lower.  The day would see shares of LTIMindtree getting listed as the merged entity. Here’s what you should know before the Opening Bell: 

    Nifty outlook

    Nifty on Friday settled below the 18,900 level and recorded its first fall in nine sessions. The 50-pack index negated its higher high-low and formed a bearish candle on the daily chart. On the weekly scale, the index formed a bullish candle but with a long wick, suggesting selling at higher levels.

    SGX Nifty signals a positive start 

    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange quoted 47.50 points, or 0.25 per cent, higher at 18,872, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday.

    Asian shares rise, dollar fall

    Asian shares rose on Monday morning amid unwinding of Covid-related restrictions in China. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.07 per cent, China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.81 per cent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 2.70 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi was flat.  The dollar index, which has inverse relation with equities, was trading 0.24 per cent lower at 104.19 level.

    US stocks settle lower

    US stocks settled slightly lower on Friday, although major indices rallied off their worst levels of the day, as the November payrolls report fuelled expectations the Federal Reserve would maintain its path of interest rate hikes to combat inflation. Dow Jones rose 34.87 points, or 0.10 per cent, to 34,429.88. S&P500 index lost 4.87 points, or 0.12 per cent, to end at 4,071.70. Nasdaq Composite fell 20.95 points, or 0.18 per cent, to 11,461.50.

    Oil rises after OPEC+ holds oil output targets

    Oil prices inched up in early trade after OPEC+ nations reaffirmed their oil output targets ahead of a European Union ban and price caps on Russian crude, which kick off on Monday, Reuters reported. At the same time, in a positive sign for fuel demand, more Chinese cities eased Covid curbs over the weekend. Brent crude futures climbed 39 cents, or 0.5 per cent, to $85.96 a barrel, while US WTI crude futures rose 37 cents, or 0.5 per cent, to $80.35 a barrel.

    Corporate actions today

    Monday would see shares of LTIMindtree getting listed as a merged entity. Shares of Panchsheel Organics will go ex-dividend today. The boards of Alfa Transformers and Gujarat Toolroom will meet today to consider proposals of preferential issue of shares. Also, the board of Marg Techno Projects will consider a proposal of stock split.  The Sukhjit Starch & Chemicals board, meanwhile, would consider an interim dividend today.

    Stocks in F&O ban

    Shares of Delta Corp, Indiabulls Housing and Punjab National Bank are banned in the F&O segment today. Derivative contracts in a security are banned when it crosses 95 per cent of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). No new positions can be created in the derivative contracts of said security. This prohibition is lifted when the open interest in the stock drops below 80 per cent of the MWPL across exchanges.

    DIIs buy shares worth Rs 712 crore

    Provisional data available with NSE suggests FPIs were net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 214.76 crore on Friday. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were buyers of equities to the tune of Rs 712.34 crore.

    Rupee falls 7 paise against dollar

    The rupee pared its initial gains to settle 7 paise lower at 81.33 against the US dollar on Friday as the support from weak dollar was negated by weak domestic markets and gains in crude oil prices. Forex traders said foreign fund outflows also weighed on investor sentiments. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 81.11, but pared the gains and ended at 81.33, down 7 paise over its previous close.

    Also read: Sensex, Nifty: Key factors that may influence Dalal Street this week

    Also read: Nifty sees profit booking after 8-day rally; 18,900 a key hurdle, say analysts

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  • SGX Nifty flat: 10 things you should know before the Opening Bell

    SGX Nifty flat: 10 things you should know before the Opening Bell

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    Dalal Street stocks may open on a muted note on Friday amid mixed set of cues from global markets. US treasury yields jumped and Wall Street stocks fell overnight. Asian markets were, however, trading mostly higher. At home, a host of largecap companies are scheduled to report quarterly earnings today. It would also be a busy day for the market, as bidding for three IPOs would be underway. Here’s what you should know before the Opening Bell: 

    Nifty outlook

    Analysts noted that Nifty had formed a Bearish Outside Bar, along with an Beairsh Engulfing on Wednesday, which was followed by a short term consolidation. Gaurav Ratnaparkhi of Sharekhan believes that once the 18,000 level is breached on a closing basis, Nifty will be set to test 17,800 on the downside. On the higher side, 18,200 will be the resistance for the short term, he said.

    SGX Nifty signals a muted start 

    Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange quoted 6 points, or 0.03 per cent, lower at 18,108.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Friday.

    Asian markets rise in early trade

    Asian markets were trading mostly higher in Friday’s trade. China’s Shanghai Composite was up 1.20 per cent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 3.6 per cent. Korea’s Kospi edged 0.3 per cent higher. Markets in Australia and New Zealand rose up to 0.29 per cent higher.

    US stocks fall for 4th day

    Wall Street stocks settled lower for the fourth straight session overnight, amid fears the US Fed Reserve would continue raising interest rates for longer than previously thought. Dow Jones declined 146.51 points, or 0.46 per cent, to 32,001.25. S&P500 fell 39.8 points, or 1.06 per cent, to 3,719.89. Nasdaq Composite declined 181.86 points, or 1.73 per cent, to 10,342.94.

    Q2 results today

    Titan Company, Cipla, Britannia Industries, InterGlobe Aviation, Marico, GAIL, TVS Motor, IDFC First Bank, Gillette India Escorts Kubota are among dozen of companies that are scheduled to report their September quarter results later in the day.
     
    Corporate actions today

    Five stocks namely TCI Express, Allsec Technologies, Crisil, Kewal Kiran Clothing and P&G Hygiene & Heath Care  will go ex-dividend today. Shares of Transwarranty Finance will go ex-rights today.
     
    Stock in F&O ban list

    Shares of Punjab National Bank and LIC Housing Finance are banned in the F&O segment today. Derivative contracts in a security is banned when it crosses 95 per cent of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). No new positions can be created in the derivative contracts of said security. This prohibition is lifted when the open interest in the stock drops below 80 per cent of the MWPL across exchanges.

    Oil prices fall on demand concerns

    Oil prices declined in Friday’s trade amid fears US interest rates will go higher than previously expected and fresh concerns that Covid outbreaks will dent fuel demand in China. Brent crude futures fell 22 cents, or 0.2 per cent, to $94.45 a barrel after dropping 1.5 per cent in the previous session.

    FPIs buy shares worth Rs 678 crore

    Provisional data available with NSE suggests FPIs were net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 677.62 crore. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), on the other hand, were sellers of equities to the tune of Rs 732.11 crore.

    Rupee sheds 21 paise against dollar

    The domestic currency depreciated 8 paise to settle at 82.88 against the greenback on Thursday, as amid hawkish stance. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 82.87 and witnessed a high of 82.74 and a low of 82.92. It finally settled at 82.88 against the American currency, registering a fall of 8 paise over its last close of 82.80.

    Also read: Tech Mahindra, PowerGrid, SBI and Titan among top gainers & losers as market ends lower

    Also read: Guess the Nifty stock with least FPI stake. Cue: It’s an IT major

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  • US Fed & Dalal Street: How will policy decision impact your stocks?

    US Fed & Dalal Street: How will policy decision impact your stocks?

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    A 75 basis points rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the November 1-2 policy review is the consensus view and stock markets globally seem to be baking in the same. What makes the event important is hope among market participants that the Fed could signal a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes in future.

    That optimism partly explains the biggest monthly percentage gain that Dow Jones made in October since January 1976, despite many earnings disappointments in the US. For India too, October ended up with a strong 5.8 per cent gain for Sensex, which was doubled the average return of 2.62 per cent the 30-pack index registered in the previous 10 years. 

    75 bps rate hike a given

    Nomura said markets are pricing over a 90 per cent probability of a 75 bps point hike but “in terms of the December FOMC meeting and beyond, a renewed divide between the hawks and doves is emerging.” 

    From the domestic market perspective, the US inflation (and the Fed’s ultra-hawkish stance) is the elephant in the room, said VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services. 

    Vijayakumar noted that US inflation at 8.2 per cent in September continued to surprise on the upside and that the Fed has no alternative but to continue monetary tightening to tame inflation. 

    Impact of rate hike

    As far as the market impact is concerned, a 75 basis points hike may at most impact the market for a day or two. 

    “If the Fed hikes the rate by 75 bps, I don’t expect a significant negative impact on the Indian market. In fact, after every 75 bps rate hike (June July & September), the Indian market recovered losses easily. I expect a similar trend to play out. A US Fed rate hike could impact Indian market sentiment only for a day or two,” said Viraj Vyas of Ashika Group. 

    But to say Fed rate hike may not pinch Dalal Street going ahead is incorrect. 

    The further US Fed tightening may hurt the world’s largest economy. Just last week, the first advanced for the September quarter suggests a growth for the US  economy after two quarters of contraction. 

    PhillipCapital said the effect of tightening on growth is normally seen with a two-three quarters of lag. A sharper rate hike in the current tightening cycle may tamper growth sooner, it said in a note.

    Since March, Fed has hiked the policy rate by 300 basis points cumulatively. That pushed the Dollar index higher and, as a result, sent the rupee tumbling to a record low.

    A weak rupee increases oil import bill for India and stoke inflation. It also leads to foreign outflows. In 2022 alone, foreign portfolio investors have sold domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,61,881 crore. 

    The policy moves in the US and globally also pushed the RBI to raise the policy rate by 190 basis points since May. Just a day after Fed policy decision, the RBI will hold an additional policy meet on November 3.

    All eyes on Fed commentary

    Nomura said the Fed Committee may begin a more intensive debate about whether and how to downshift to 50 bps hikes. 

    While the Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely repeat that the Fed will eventually slow the pace of rate hikes, Nomura does not expect a commitment to do so even at the December meeting.

    “Additional data, including two more CPI and NFP reports, will likely prompt Powell to keep the Committee’s options open. Moreover, there does not yet appear to be a consensus on the Committee about the preferred size of a December hike, limiting Powell’s ability to offer guidance. Incoming price and wage inflation data suggest the Fed has made little progress on its inflation efforts,” it said. 

    Nomura said committing to slow the pace of rate hikes in December could result in easier financial conditions and work against the Fed’s objectives.

    What if Fed gives a dovish signal?

    A dovish signal could be an exciting moment for equity investors, one they’ve craved all year, said Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA, OANDA. 

    “But that doesn’t mean it’ll be plain sailing from here. There’s still the economic drop-off and potential global recession to contend with, not to mention a highly uncertain winter in Europe,” Erlam said.

    Nifty performance in recessions

    Among past instances, PhillipCapital said, Nifty fell to 900 level by September 2001 from 1,350 level in February 2001 during the dot-com recession. It recovered to 1,350 level by September 2003.

    During the global financial crisis, Nifty fell to 2,550 level in October 2008 from 6,150 level in December 2007, only to recover to 6,150 by October 2010.

    During the Covid-led recession, Nifty plunged to 7,600 by March 2020 from 12,100 in February 2020. It recovered to pre-covid levels by November 2020. 

    “Nifty recovered from the dot-com fall in 24-months; it recovered from the GFC recession in 23 months, and from Covid recession in 8 months,” PhillipCapital noted. 

    Phillip Capital has a neutral stance on Indian equities, as it finds global monetary tightening and earnings slowdown as key risks.

    “In case global slowdown is avoided, India equities will trend higher. However, until that clarity emerges, we expect Nifty to be range-bound. We retain our March 2023-September 2023 target at 17,800-18,800. While we expect India’s outperformance to sustain, near term trends will likely be soft owing to higher interest rates, tight liquidity, weakening rupee, pent-up demand in FY22/23, and slowing global growth,” it said on Monday.

    Also read: Maruti Suzuki, L&T, ITC, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank: Which large-cap stock is a better pick post Q2 result?

    Also read: NTPC, PowerGrid, Axis Bank, Maruti among top gainers & losers as market ends higher

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