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  • Netflix stock falls after subscriber growth, earnings forecast miss. But it’s bouncing back on ad plans, shared-password crackdown in U.S.

    Netflix stock falls after subscriber growth, earnings forecast miss. But it’s bouncing back on ad plans, shared-password crackdown in U.S.

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    Netflix Inc.’s stock initially plunged in after-hours trading Tuesday, after the streaming giant posted weaker subscriber growth and forecast a smaller profit than Wall Street expected. But shares later recovered and crossed into positive territory on company disclosures that its new ad-supported service is a success and its crackdown on shared accounts in the U.S. is coming this quarter.

    Netflix
    NFLX,
    +0.29%
    reported that subscribers increased by 1.75 million in the first quarter of the year, missing analysts’ average estimate of 2.2 million. Netflix reported fiscal first-quarter net earnings of $1.31 billion, or $2.88 a share, compared with $3.53 a share in the year-ago quarter.

    Revenue improved to $8.16 billion from $7.87 billion a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected on average net earnings of $2.86 a share on revenue of $8.18 billion.

    For the second quarter, Netflix executives guided for earnings of $2.84 a share on $8.24 billion in revenue, while analysts on average were expecting earnings of $3.07 a share on sales of $8.18 billion. Netflix no longer provides guidance on subscriber additions, a sign its years of rapid growth are clearly cooling.

    Shares plunged lower than $300 in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 0.3% increase at $333.70. But shares had crossed into positive territory and were recently above $335 in the extended session.

    Netflix executives have hoped to goose their financial results with cheaper, ad-supported options and a crackdown on password sharing. In a letter to shareholders Tuesday, company executives said the ads plan in the U.S. “already has a total ARM (subscription + ads) greater than our standard plan.”

    At the same time, they disclosed a password crackdown in the U.S. will occur in the second quarter, a bit later from previous expectations.

    “We shifted out the timing of the broad launch from late Q1 to Q2,” Netflix executives wrote. “While this means that some of the expected membership growth and revenue benefit will fall in Q3 rather than Q2, we believe this will result in a
    better outcome for both our members and our business.”

    Additionally, Netflix also announced that it will end the DVD-by-mail business that launched the company into consumers’ homes. Revenue from the DVD business had declined from $911 million in 2013 to $146 million in 2022.

    “This a catch-22 environment for streaming companies as they are pivoting from chasing subscribers to chasing profits while at the same time inflation-weary consumers are reassessing their discretionary spending habits,” KPMG U.S. National Media Leader Scott Purdy said, in assessing the results. “Today’s figures, a bellwether for the industry at large, signal that winter is coming for the consumer. All of the subsidies are ending. Consumers can expect to be hit with ads, higher prices, and password sharing crackdown.”

    Expectations among investors heading into Netflix’s quarterly report were muted. The focus was on Netflix’s switch toward better monetization with an ad-supported service and a rolling crackdown on shared accounts. Analysts in particular were closely watching the performance of Netflix’s new “Basic with Ads” plan ($6.99 a month) and its effectiveness in stanching the defection of subscribers to competing services from Walt Disney Co.
    DIS,
    +0.63%
    and Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.75%    .

    Netflix’s rollout of the ad-supported tier could also have a temporary impact on margins: Netflix reported an operating margin of 21%, compared with about 25% in the year-ago quarter.

    At the same time, Netflix put an end to paid shared accounts in some Latin American countries last year, and expanded plans to do so Canada, New Zealand, Portugal and Spain in February.

    “In our view, the password-sharing crackdown will result in a greater number of subs as well as revenue because the primary account holder will either pay an additional fee for members who have moved out of the household or those sharing accounts become full subscribers,” Bank of America analysts said in a recent note.

    Shares of Netflix have climbed 12% so far this year, while the broader S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.09%
    has advanced 8%.

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  • S&P 500 ekes out gain, stocks drift as earnings pick up

    S&P 500 ekes out gain, stocks drift as earnings pick up

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    U.S. stocks drifted, closing mostly lower on Tuesday, as investors waited for earnings season to gather more steam. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.03%
    ended down 10 points, or less than 0.1%, near 33,976, while the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.09%
    gained 0.1%, according to preliminary figures from FactSet. The Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    -0.04%
    fell less than 0.1%. Bank of America
    BAC,
    +0.63%
    and Goldman Sachs
    GS,
    -1.70%
    were among the major banks to report quarterly results, while streaming giant Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    +0.29%
    was on deck after the bell. It is ending its red-envelope DVD rental service after 25 years. Investors also heard Tuesday from several more staffers at the Federal Reserve, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic telling Reuters that he expects one more rate hike, but for the Fed’s policy rate to stay higher for awhile. Continued gridlock in Washington on the debt-ceiling stalemate also has been coming into focus for markets. BlackRock also sold the first batch of seized assets from Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which fetched about 85 cents to 90 cents on the dollar.

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  • Netflix is sending its DVD-by-mail business to the Blockbuster graveyard

    Netflix is sending its DVD-by-mail business to the Blockbuster graveyard

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    Netflix Inc. is ending the DVD-by-mail business that first made it a household name and took down Blockbuster Video.

    Netflix
    NFLX,
    +0.29%
    executives announced Tuesday afternoon that the company will ship its last red DVD envelopes on Sept. 29, after 25 years. The business has dwindled in the past decade from more than $900 million in revenue in 2013 to less than $150 million last year.

    “Our goal has always been to provide the best service for our members, but as the business continues to shrink that’s going to become increasingly difficult,” co-Chief Executive Ted Sarandos said in a blog post titled “Netflix DVD — The Final Season.”

    Also see: Netflix stock falls after subscriber growth, earnings forecast miss. But it’s bouncing back on ad plans, shared-password crackdown in U.S.

    Netflix launched as a DVD-by-mail service in an era that relied on physical media such as the discs to watch television shows and movies at home. The DVD business at the time was dominated by Blockbuster, which relied on brick-and-mortar stores that rented movies for a few days and charged late fees if they were not returned on time.

    Netflix offered a different approach, allowing consumers to have a certain number of DVDs mailed to their home and return them at their leisure, which eventually led to the demise of Blockbuster. Eventually, the company began focusing on streaming media directly to consumers, and first offered that service for free to DVD subscribers.

    Co-founder and former Chief Executive Reed Hastings — who announced he was stepping down from that position three months ago — decided to pivot from the successful DVD business to focus on streaming, which wasn’t an easy transition. When he announced that Netflix would sever the DVD and streaming businesses in 2011, effectively doubling the monthly price for consumers who wanted both offerings, it became one of the biggest debacles in Netflix history as consumers raged and canceled their subscriptions.

    While the process was not easy — remember Qwikster? — Hastings’ vision for streaming services won out, with Netflix collecting roughly $31.5 billion in streaming subscription revenue last year, as the DVD business racked up $146 million. Some of the biggest names in entertainment and tech — Walt Disney Inc.
    DIS,
    +0.63%    ,
    Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.75%    ,
    Warner Bros. Discovery’s
    WBD,
    -1.79%
    HBO, and many more — have followed Netflix’s path, and established streaming as one of the most dominant forms of media consumption.

    For more: Netflix has changed drastically since its IPO —and is worth thousands of times more

    “Those iconic red envelopes changed the way people watched shows and movies at home — and they paved the way for the shift to streaming,” Sarandos wrote in Tuesday’s announcement.

    Netflix stock has also been a winner, despite a decline in late trading following earnings on Tuesday afternoon. Shares have increased more than 1,300% in the past decade, as the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.09%
    has grown by about 167%.

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  • Tesla, Netflix earnings due: Cheaper cars, cheaper content, more workout videos, as ‘earnings recession’ seems likely

    Tesla, Netflix earnings due: Cheaper cars, cheaper content, more workout videos, as ‘earnings recession’ seems likely

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    For anyone watching Netflix, the streaming services’ recent moves to cut costs could mean fewer films, lower-budget shows and — depending on your subscription — more ads. For anyone buying a Tesla, its moves to cut prices will make it easier on customers, but harder on profit-seeking investors.

    With both companies reporting results this week, Wall Street will get a look at who still wants a Tesla, amid growing competition, and what kind of growth and viewership anyone can expect from Netflix, as it recalibrates its streaming ambitions and focuses more on profitability following years of rapid growth.

    Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    -2.18%    ,
    which reports first-quarter results on Tuesday, is trying to crack down on shared accounts, and analysts polled by FactSet see subscriptions coming in well below the average. However, BofA analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich said that first-quarter results would likely “mark the low point” of the year, “reflecting the initial impact of password sharing efforts in select markets.”

    Netflix will report as shareholders’ growing influence over the streaming universe raises questions over what shows and films get streamed, and for how long, as Wall Street tries to wring more bottom-line gains from an industry that boomed before and during the pandemic but burned cash and got crowded in the process. Netflix, along with Walt Disney Co.
    DIS,
    -0.93%    ,
    have laid off employees, while Warner Brothers Discovery Inc.
    WBD,
    -1.85%
    fuses its streaming holdings together.

    “We expect Netflix to continue reining in spending, particularly by seeking alternatives to its past practices,” Wedbush analysts Alicia Reese and Michael Pachter wrote in a research note on Thursday. “The company appears to us to be producing fewer feature length films, which we have always viewed as a poor investment, and appears focused on lower cost television content.”

    “We are equally encouraged that Netflix is looking at low-cost content like workout videos, which we believe will present a lot of value to subscribers at very low cost,” they added later.

    The analysts said that they felt Netflix was well positioned, as other streamers rethink their approach to expansion and financials. And they said Netflix “should be valued as an immensely profitable, slow-growth company.” They also said that Netflix’s decision to launch a cheaper ad-supported option was a “great decision” after growth stalled in the U.S. and Canada and the company’s business in Europe, the Middle East and Africa reaches the saturation point.

    For Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    -0.48%    ,
    which reports results on Wednesday, the focus for investors will be on price-cutting and its impact on margins. Still, Potter, an analyst at Piper Sandler, has said Tesla is on a “warpath” and “maintaining its aggressive approach to pricing,” and said investors “should expect relentless price cuts to continue.”

    Base prices for Tesla’s Model S and Model X have fallen by around $5,000, MarketWatch has noted, as the electric-vehicle maker tries to stimulate demand. The company is also selling a more affordable Model Y SUV.

    “Tesla concerns on pricing and a race to the bottom persisted as general sentiment on the stock is souring given recent price cuts after a brief period of stabilization,” TD Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne said in a note.

    Tesla will report as the Biden administration tries to take a harder stance on auto pollution. The EPA recently proposed new emissions restrictions intended to hasten electric-vehicle usage, by incrementally curtailing tailpipe emissions each year for vehicle model years 2027 through 2032. However, some analysts said the measures would push prices higher for regular and electric vehicles.

    This week in earnings

    The first-quarter earnings reporting season will pick up steam in the week ahead, with 60 S&P 500 companies, including six from the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.42%    ,
    reporting quarterly results, according to FactSet. Those companies will report as Wall Street analysts remain pessimistic about results for the quarter, and the prospect of another so-called “earnings recession” in which profits contract for at least two straight quarters.

    “As of today, the S&P 500 is reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings of -6.5% for the first quarter, which would mark the largest earnings decline reported by the index since Q2 2020 (-31.6%) and the second straight quarter the index has reported a decline in earnings,” FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters said in a report on Friday.

    After investors cheered JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s
    JPM,
    +7.55%
    quarterly results on Friday — despite Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse and broader recession anxieties — other banking giants, like Bank of America Corp.
    BAC,
    +3.36%    ,
    Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
    GS,
    +1.44%
    and Morgan Stanley
    MS,
    +1.19%
    report during the week ahead. So does Johnson & Johnson
    JNJ,
    -0.16%    ,
    after it agreed to pay as much as $8.9 billion to settle scores of lawsuits alleging that its talc baby powder was linked to cancer. Charles Schwab Corp.
    SCHW,
    -1.40%    ,
    United Airlines Holdings Inc.
    UAL,
    -0.71%
    and AT&T Inc.
    T,
    -0.15%
    also report during the week.

    The calls to put on your calendar

    Supply-chain update, anyone? Shipping rates have fallen. Labor tensions have risen. Railroad safety is under scrutiny. Elsewhere in that industry, hedge funders are applying pressure. Memories of 2021’s supply-chain meltdown are still fresh after it led to shipping delays and put the low-work labor that fuels much of that distribution network under a spotlight.

    At any rate, trucking and logistics company J.B. Hunt Transportation Services Inc.
    JBHT,
    +1.23%
    reports on Monday, while railroad giant CSX Corp.
    CSX,
    +0.13%
    reports on Thursday. Both companies report after a drop-off in demand for goods last year, as inflation remolded consumers’ buying habits. They also report after rail workers threatened to strike over what they said were inadequate sick-time policies. More recently, a group representing the terminal operators at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach alleged that dockworkers were disrupting daily operations at the two massive import gateways, as the workers’ union and the terminal operators try to work out a contract. The quarterly financial reports and earnings calls will offer a look at what the year ahead has in store.

    The number to watch

    Credit-card transactions, charge-offs: Credit-card providers Discover Financial Services
    DFS,
    +0.68%
    and American Express Co.
    AXP,
    +0.57%
    report Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The companies will report after Discover took a hit in January after it forecast credit-card net charge-offs — a measure of debt a company doesn’t think it’ll get back — that were worse than what Wall Street expected. Similar to the results from the big banks, the results from American Express and Discover will tells us how much consumers are still spending, and whether more are falling behind on their bills, as recession anxieties prevail.

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  • Netflix Is About to Kick Off Tech Earnings. There Are Lots of Questions.

    Netflix Is About to Kick Off Tech Earnings. There Are Lots of Questions.

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    The outlook for


    Netflix


    ‘s first-quarter earnings report, due after the close of trading on Tuesday, is a little muddled.

    The company is still the clear leader in the streaming video market. But it is struggling to show meaningful growth given a weak economy, increasingly aggressive competition, and an apparently saturated U.S. market for streaming.

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  • Netflix Surprises With a Subscriber Beat and Hastings Steps Back

    Netflix Surprises With a Subscriber Beat and Hastings Steps Back

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    Netflix


    posted better-than-expected subscriber growth in the fourth quarter, adding 7.66 million net new subscribers, well ahead of the 4.5 million the company had projected.

    The company also announced that founder and co-CEO Reed Hastings was moving to the executive chairman role to “complete our succession process.” Netflix said that Chief operating officer Greg Peters will join Ted Sarandos as co-CEO of the company.

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  • Netflix stock leaps after subscriber success in final quarter with Reed Hastings as CEO

    Netflix stock leaps after subscriber success in final quarter with Reed Hastings as CEO

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    Netflix Inc. added more subscribers than expected in the final quarter of 2022, sending shares higher in after-hours trading Thursday even as founder Reed Hastings prepared to step down from the chief executive role he has held since the company’s inception.

    Netflix
    NFLX,
    -3.23%
    announced that Hastings has moved to an executive chairman role, while Chief Operating Officer Greg Peters moves up to co-CEO, joining Ted Sarandos.

    “Since Reed started to delegate management to us, Greg and I have built a strong operating model based on our shared values and like-minded approach to growth,” Sarandos said in a letter to shareholders. “I am so excited to start this new chapter with Greg as co-CEO.”

    In a separate letter, Hastings said “in the last 2½ years, I’ve increasingly delegated the management of Netflix” to Sarandos and Peters.

    “It was a baptism by fire, given COVID and recent challenges within our business. But they’ve both managed incredibly well, ensuring Netflix continues to improve and developing a clear path to reaccelerate our revenue and earnings growth,” Hastings wrote. “So the board and I believe it’s the right time to complete my succession.”

    “More and more, they’ve been running the company,” Hastings said in a video call late Thursday. He called the move 10 days in the making.

    The company revealed on Thursday fourth-quarter revenue of $7.85 billion, compared with $7.71 billion a year ago. Earnings were $55 million, or 12 cents a share, down from $607 million, or $1.33 a share, last year; the decline was due to a $463 million noncash charge related to debt held in Europe, executives said.

    Wall Street analysts tracked by FactSet had estimated revenue of $7.86 billion on earnings of 55 cents a share. Shares increased more than 6% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 3.2% decrease at $315.78.

    The streaming-video company reported that it added 7.7 million subscribers in the final three months of the year; analysts had expected 4.58 million, according to FactSet. Netflix will no longer offer guidance on that statistic, which has typically moved Netflix shares more than any other metric.

    In October, Netflix executives predicted the company would add a net 4.5 million subscribers in the fourth quarter as it bounces back from a lull in growth. Netflix reported losses in subscribers for the first two quarters of 2022, prompting leaders to unveil an ad-based service in November for customers who want to pay less, and plans to crack down on password sharing.

    “2022 was a tough year, with a bumpy start but a brighter finish,” executives wrote in their letter to shareholders Thursday. “We believe we have a clear path to reaccelerate our revenue growth: continuing to improve all aspects of Netflix, launching paid sharing and building our ads offering. As always, our north stars remain pleasing our members and building even greater profitability over time.”

    Executives guided for 4% revenue growth year-over-year in the first quarter, which would suggest roughly $8.2 billion in sales, while analysts were projecting $8.15 billion on average, according to FactSet. Executives said they “expect constant currency revenue growth to accelerate over the course of the year,” but that the password-sharing crackdown they expect to roll out widely in the first quarter could cause some bumpiness early in the year.

    Don’t miss: Netflix will crack down on password sharing — here’s how it will work

    “From our experience in Latin America, we expect some cancel reaction in each market when we roll out paid sharing, which impacts near-term member growth,” they wrote. “But as borrower households begin to activate their own stand-alone accounts and extra member accounts are added, we expect to see improved overall revenue, which is our goal with all plan and pricing changes.”

    The video-streaming pioneer offered first-quarter earnings guidance of $1.28 billion, or $2.82 a share; FactSet analysts are forecasting $2.98 a share.

    Netflix’s results arrived in the wake of increasingly bullish research notes. At least two analysts this week raised their price targets on Netflix shares, citing a weaker dollar. Truist analyst Matthew Thornton jacked his target to $339 from $210 while maintaining a hold rating, and UBS’s John Hodulik lifted his price to $350 from $250.

    For more: In Netflix’s unpredictable finale, the focus is on financial estimates

    “We view Netflix as one of the most durable businesses in our coverage as subscription low-cost entertainment with little-to-no exposure to advertising (still very small/new in 2023) or other highly cyclical/macro sensitive revenues,” Truist’s Thornton wrote. “While there could be some pressure on churn and gross adds (as households tighten budgets), we think this should be at least partly offset by increased cord-cutting (going 100% streaming from more expensive linear TV bundles).”

    Optimism was not universal, however. Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar expected Netflix to add roughly half the new subscribers executives had forecast, 2.7 million, based on a drop in app downloads.

    Netflix’s stock has plunged 38% over the past 12 months. The broader S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.76%
    has declined 13% over the past year.

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  • Cheap? Maybe. But These Stocks Have Been Dead Money for Decades

    Cheap? Maybe. But These Stocks Have Been Dead Money for Decades

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    Cheesecake Factory appears to be “running the same play,” wrote J.P. Morgan analyst John Ivankoe in a recent restaurant industry outlook. I don’t think he meant it as a compliment—the stock, he noted, trades where it did in 2004, adjusted for splits.

    Why the long stall-out? My first thought was that maybe hitting the mall for a hypercaloric sit-down meal off a menu the size of a Gutenberg Bible has fallen out of favor over the years. But no: Sales have bounced back and then some from the Covid pandemic, with plenty of takeout business and dessert orders. The average


    Cheesecake Factory


    (ticker: CAKE) restaurant does more than $10 million in yearly sales, or twice as much as an Olive Garden.

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  • NFLX Stock Price | Netflix Inc. Stock Quote (U.S.: Nasdaq) | MarketWatch

    NFLX Stock Price | Netflix Inc. Stock Quote (U.S.: Nasdaq) | MarketWatch

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    Netflix is interested in carrying live sports: report

    Netflix Inc. is thinking of getting into the game of offering live sports, much as its rivals Walt Disney Co. , Apple Inc. , Amazon.com Inc. and Comcast Corp. do, according to a Wall Street Journal Tuesday. The video-st…

    Nov. 8, 2022 at 1:54 p.m. ET

    by Jon Swartz

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  • Investors may be whistling past the graveyard of a recession with latest rally in stocks

    Investors may be whistling past the graveyard of a recession with latest rally in stocks

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    Investors feeling giddy about last week’s sharp rally for stocks might want to give a listen to Tom Waits’ song, “Whistlin’ Past the Graveyard” from 1978, to sober up for the dangers that still lurk ahead.

    The surge in stocks catapulted the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.92%
    almost back to the 4,000 mark on Friday, also lifting it to the biggest weekly gain in roughly five months, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Investors showed courage on signs of a slight slowing of inflation, but the fortitude also comes as a drearier backdrop for investors has been unfolding in plain sight. Massive layoffs at big technology companies, the dramatic implosion of crypto-exchange FTX, and the day-to-day pain of high inflation and skyrocketing borrowing on businesses and households are all taking a toll.

    “We are not convinced this is the beginning of a new bull market,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CRFA Research. “We believe that we are headed for recession. That has not been factored into earnings estimates and, therefore, share prices.”

    Stovall also said the stock market has yet to see the “traditional shakeout of confidence capitulation that we typically see that marks the end of the bear markets.”

    From Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.03%
    to Lyft Inc.
    LYFT,
    +12.59%
    to Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    +5.51%
    there is a wave of major technology companies resorting to layoffs this fall, a threat that could sweep other sectors of the economy if a recession materializes.

    Yet, information technology stocks in the S&P 500 jumped 10% for the week, while financials, which stand to benefit from higher interest rates, rose 5.7%, according to FactSet.

    That could reflect optimism about the odds of a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes in the months ahead, after sharp rate rises helped to undermine valuations and pull tech stocks dramatically lower in the past year. However, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, and other Fed officials since the October inflation reading on Thursday have reiterated the need to keep rates high, until 7.7% annual rate finds a clearer path to the central bank’s 2% target.

    The stock-market rally also might suggest that investors view continued mayhem in the crypto sector as contained, despite bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +0.42%
    trading near its lowest level in two years and the shocking collapse in recent days of FTX, once the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency exchange.

    Read: FTX’s fall: ‘This is the worst’ moment for crypto this year. Here’s what you should know.

    What happens to stocks in recessions

    Blows to the American economy rarely have been good for stocks. A look at seven past recessions, starting in 1969, shows declines for the S&P 500 as more typical than gains, with its most violent drop occurring in the 2007-2009 recession.

    The more than 37% drop of the S&P 500 from 2007 to 2009 was the worst of its kind in a recession since the late 1960s.


    Refinitiv data, London Stock Exchange Group

    While a looming U.S. recession isn’t a foregone conclusion, CEOs of America’s biggest banks have been warning about the risks for months. JP Morgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon said in October that a “tough recession” could drag the S&P 500 down another 20%, even though he also said consumers were doing fine, for now.

    Still, the steady stream of warnings about the recession odds have left many Americans confused and wondering if one can even happen without an increase in job losses.

    Big moves lately in stocks also have been hard to decode, given the economy was shocked back to life in the pandemic by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus and easy-money policies from the Fed that are now being reversed.

    “What I think goes unnoticed, certainly by the average person, is that these moves are not normal,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, about stock swings this week.

    “It’s all about who is positioned how — and for what — and how much leverage they’re employing,” Martin told MarketWatch. “You get these outsized moves when people are offside.”

    Here’s a view of the sharp trajectory upward of the S&P 500 since 2010, but also its dramatic drop this year.

    Sharp rise of S&P 500 since 2010, but recent fall


    Refinitiv Datastream

    While Martin isn’t ruling out the potential for a seasonal “Santa Claus” rally heading into year-end, he worries about a potential leg lower for stocks next year, particularly with the Fed likely to keep interest rates high.

    “Certainly what’s being priced in now is either no recession or a very, very mild recession,” he said .

    However, Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist, said the overarching story might be one of stocks sniffing out the first steps in a path to economic recovery, and the Fed potentially stopping its rate hikes at a lower “terminal” rate than expected.

    The Fed increased its benchmark interest rate to a 3.75% to 4% range in November, the highest in 15 years, but also has signaled it could top out near 4.5% to 4.75%.

    “If often happens that you can see stocks do well, in a less-than-good economic environment,” she said.

    The S&P 500 rose 4.2% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.10%
    gained 5.9%, posting its best weekly gain since late June, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Nasdaq Composite Index shot up 8.1% for the week, its best weekly stretch in seven months.

    In U.S. economic data, investors will get an update on household debt on Tuesday, retail sales and homebuilder data on Wednesday, followed by jobless claims and housing starts data Thursday. Friday brings existing home sales.

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  • As subscription prices rise, here’s what’s worth streaming in November 2022: ‘The Crown,’ ‘Willow,’ ‘Mythic Quest’ and more

    As subscription prices rise, here’s what’s worth streaming in November 2022: ‘The Crown,’ ‘Willow,’ ‘Mythic Quest’ and more

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    So here’s some bad news and some, well, slightly less bad news.

    First, the bad-bad: Streaming prices are increasing almost across the board (Hulu and Apple TV+ rose in October, Disney+ will rise in December, while Netflix and Prime Video rose earlier this year), putting even more of a crunch on budget-conscious consumers.

    But now the less bad: If you can put up with commercials, there are cheaper, ad-supported versions coming your way (Netflix on Nov. 3, Disney+ in December).

    Of course, the other money-saving solution is to double down on a churn-and-return strategy and cut down on recurring subscriptions even more.

    Each month, this column offers tips on how to maximize your streaming and your budget, rating the major services as a “play,” “pause” or “stop” — similar to investment analysts’ traditional ratings of buy, hold and sell. We also pick the best content to help you make your monthly decisions.

    Consumers can take full advantage of cord-cutting by churning and returning — adding and dropping streaming services each month. All it takes is good planning. Keep in mind that a billing cycle starts when you sign up, not necessarily at the beginning of the month, and keep an eye out for lower-priced tiers, limited-time discounts, free trials and cost-saving bundles. There are a lot of offers out there, but the deals don’t last forever.

    Here’s a look at what’s coming to the various streaming services in November 2022, and what’s really worth the monthly subscription fee.

    Netflix ($6.99 a month for basic with ads starting Nov. 3, $9.99 basic without ads, $15.49 standard without ads, $19.99 premium without ads)

    Netflix has another really good month coming up.

     “The Crown” (Nov. 9), returns for its fifth season, set this time in the 1990s as scandals involving Charles and Diana plaster London’s tabloids and the role of Britain’s monarchy in modern society is thrown into question. Imelda Staunton takes over the role of Queen Elizabeth, with Dominic West as Prince Charles, Elizabeth Debicki as Princess Diana and Jonathan Pryce as Prince Philip. Controversy has already erupted over the new season, which will include Diana’s tragic death, as some have spoken out about the show’s increasingly blurry line between truth and fiction. Pryce recently told Vanity Fair, ““The vast majority of people know it’s a drama,” not a documentary. And it’s a pretty good drama.

    Netflix
    NFLX,
    -0.41%
    hasn’t had much success developing original sitcoms, but is hoping to finally break through with “Blockbuster” (Nov. 3), a workplace comedy set at the last Blockbuster video store in America, starring network sitcom veterans Randall Park (“Fresh Off the Boat”) and Melissa Fumero (“Brooklyn Nine-Nine”). There’s also “Wednesday” (Nov. 23), a horror-comedy series from Tim Burton starring Jenna Ortega as the terrifyingly snarky teen Wednesday Addams, with Catherine Zeta-Jones and Luis Guzman playing her creepy and kooky parents, Morticia and Gomez; and the third and final season of the dark comedy “Dead to Me” (Nov. 17), starring Christina Applegate and Linda Cardellini, which returns after a two-and-a-half-year layoff.

    On the drama side, there’s “1899” (Nov. 17), a mystery-horror series set aboard a transatlantic steamer ship at the turn of the last century, from the makers of the mind-bending German sci-fi series “Dark” — and if it’s even half as trippy and addictive, it’ll be terrific; Part 1 of the fourth season of the supernatural drama “Manifest” (Nov. 4), which Netflix rescued from NBC’s cancellation; and Season 6 of the soapy Spanish high-school drama “Elite” (Nov 18).

    More: Here’s everything new coming to Netflix in November 2022, and what’s leaving

    There’s also the timely documentary “FIFA Uncovered” (Nov. 9), digging into the scandal-plagued organization behind the World Cup; “Pepsi, Where’s My Jet” (Nov. 17), a documentary about a man who sued Pepsi in the 1980s to get a free Harrier fighter jet; the fifth installment of “The Great British Baking Show: Holidays” (Nov. 18); and the new standup comedy special from the outgoing “Daily Show” host, “Trevor Noah: I Wish You Would” (Nov. 22).

    On the movie front, there’s “Enola Holmes 2” (Nov. 4), a sequel to the hit 2020 movie about Sherlock Holmes’ younger sister, played by Millie Bobby Brown (“Stranger Things”), as young detective Enola sets out to investigate her first case; “Slumberland” (Nov. 18), a comedy adventure about a young girl exploring the dreamworld, starring Mallow Barkley and Jason Mamoa; and Lindsay Lohan is back with a Christmas rom-com, “Falling for Christmas” (Nov. 10).

    Who’s Netflix for? Fans of buzz-worthy original shows and movies.

    Play, pause or stop? Play. When it’s at the top of its game, as it is again this month, Netflix is a must-have, at whatever price tier.

    Disney+ ($7.99 a month)

    The TV world has been abuzz about prequels for the past few months, but it’s all about sequels in November for Disney+.

    The biggest of the bunch is “Willow” (Nov. 30), a follow-up series to the cult-favorite 1988 fantasy movie of the same name. The magical adventure is set 20 years after the events of the film, and Warwick Davis returns as farmer-turned-sorcerer Willow Ufgood, who leads an unlikely group of heroes on a quest to save their world. It should be fun for the whole family.

    Disney
    DIS,
    +1.45%
    also has “Disenchanted” (Nov. 18), a sequel to the 2007 hit movie “Enchanted.” The musical fantasy is set 10 years after the happily-ever-after ending, with Giselle (Amy Adams) questioning her happiness and inadvertently setting her two worlds askew. Patrick Dempsey, James Marsden and Maya Rudolph co-star. And then there’s “The Santa Clauses” (Nov. 16), as Tim Allen reprises his role of Santa Claus, who’s now facing retirement and looking for a replacement, in a new miniseries spinoff of the family-movie trilogy.

    Also of note: “The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special” (Nov. 25), as Star-Lord and the gang kidnap Kevin Bacon; the live performance “Elton John: Live from Dodger Stadium” (Nov. 20), the pop icon’s final show in North America; and weekly episodes of “Dancing With the Stars” (season finale Nov. 21), the “Star Wars” prequel “Andor” (season finale Nov. 23) and “The Mighty Ducks: Game Changers” (season finale Nov. 30).

    And heads up: Prices for the ad-free tier will jump to $10.99 a month in December, after Disney+ launches its ad-supported tier for $7.99 a month.

    Who’s Disney+ for? Families with kids, hardcore “Star Wars” and Marvel fans. For people not in those groups, Disney’s library can be lacking.

    Play, pause or stop? Play. There’s something for everyone in the household — even grumps who aren’t “Star Wars” fans can get into “Andor,” which absolutely works as a dark, gripping, spy thriller. Meanwhile, fans are realizing it just might be the best “Star Wars” series or movie ever made.

    HBO Max ($9.99 a month with ads, or $14.99 without ads)

    HBO Max is bringing back  “The Sex Lives of College Girls” (Nov. 17) for its second season. Created by Mindy Kaling and Justin Noble (who also teamed on Netflix’s “Never Have I Ever”), the ensemble comedy about four college roommates picks up right after Thanksgiving break, with the girls organizing a “sex-positive” male strip show. It’s sharp, funny, and less cringey than its title suggests.

    Then there’s “A Christmas Story Christmas” (Nov. 17), a nostalgic sequel to the 1983 classic, starring Peter Billingsley as a grown-up Ralphie who returns to his hometown to try to give his kids a perfect Christmas. It’s risky reviving such a beloved movie, and this could either be wonderful or terrible, there’s really no middle ground.

    HBO Max also has a slew of documentaries, including “Love, Lizzo” (Nov. 24), about the pop superstar’s inspiring life story; “Shaq” (Nov. 23), a four-part docuseries chronicling the rise to superstardom of NBA Hall of Famer Shaquille O’Neal; “Low Country: The Murdaugh Dynasty” (Nov. 3), a true-crime series about a South Carolina lawyer’s scandalous fall; and “Say Hey, Willie Mays!” (Nov. 8), a film exploring the life, career and social impact of the greatest baseball player who ever played the game.

    See more: Here’s everything new coming to HBO Max in November 2022, and what’s leaving

    And every week brings new episodes of Season 2 of the very dark vacation comedy “The White Lotus,” Season 3 of “Pennyworth: The Origin of Batman’s Butler” and Season 2 of the cult documentary “The Vow.”

    Who’s HBO Max for? HBO fans and movie lovers.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause and think it over. “The White Lotus” and “The Sex Lives of College Girls” are both worth watching, but beyond that it’s kinda “meh” this month. And Max is too pricey for “meh.”

    Amazon Prime Video ($14.99 a month)

    Amazon
    AMZN,
    -6.80%
    is bringing the star power in November, starting with the Western drama series “The English” (Nov. 11), starring Emily Blunt as an aristocratic Englishwoman who teams with a Pawnee scout (Chaske Spencer) on a mission to cross the violent 1890s American frontier. It looks stylish and bloody — and promising.

    Meanwhile, James Corden and Sally Hawkins star in “Mammals” (Nov. 11), a dark comedy series about modern marriage; pop star-turned-actor Harry Styles stars in “My Policeman” (Nov. 4), a drama about forbidden romance that’s getting very “meh” reviews in its theatrical release; and Kristen Bell, Ben Platt and Allison Janney star in “The People We Hate at the Wedding” (Nov. 18), a raunchy comedy set at a dysfunctional family wedding.

    More: Here’s what’s coming to Amazon’s Prime Video in November 2022

    There’s also NFL Thursday Night Football every week, and new episodes of the intriguing sci-fi drama “The Peripheral,” which is giving very “Westworld”-but-slightly-less-confusing vibes.

    Who’s Amazon Prime Video for? Movie lovers, TV-series fans who value quality over quantity.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause. There’s good stuff here, but nothing that feels must-see.

    Paramount+ ($4.99 a month with ads but not live CBS, $9.99 without ads)

    Taylor Sheridan (“Yellowstone,” “1883,” “Mayor of Kingstown”) has another new series: “Tulsa King” (Nov. 13), starring Sylvester Stallone as a former New York mafia capo who gets freed from prison after 25 years and settles in Tulsa, Okla., to build a criminal empire of his own. Showrunner Terence Winter (“The Sopranos,” “Boardwalk Empire”) knows a thing or two about mob shows, and this one could be good.

    Paramount+ also has the spinoff series “Criminal Minds: Evolution” (Nov. 24), about an elite team of FBI profilers unraveling a network of serial killers; the family movie “Fantasy Football” (Nov. 25), about a girl who can magically control how her NFL-player dad performs on the field; and the series finale of “The Good Fight” (Nov. 10), which its creators promise will be “cataclysmic.”

    There’s also the Thanksgiving Day Parade (Nov. 24) and a ton of live sports, including college football on Saturdays, NFL football on Sundays (and Thanksgiving Day), and group-stage matches for UEFA’s Champions and Europe leagues.

    Who’s Paramount+ for? Gen X cord-cutters who miss live sports and familiar Paramount Global 
    PARA,
    +3.37%
     broadcast and cable shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause. Besides its solid live-sports lineup, it’s a good time to catch up and binge “The Good Fight,” and “Tulsa King” could be worth a watch too.

    Hulu ($7.99 a month with ads, or $14.99 with no ads)

    Hulu has a couple of interesting offerings in November, but nothing that screams must-see. Yet, at least.

    FX’s “Fleishman Is in Trouble” (Nov. 17) stars Jesse Eisenberg as a newly divorced dad whose promiscuous dive into app-based dating is disrupted when his ex-wife disappears and leaves him with their kids. Claire Danes, Lizzy Caplan and Adam Brody co-star in the eight-episode drama, which is based on Taffy Brodesser-Akner’s best-selling novel.

    There’s also “Welcome to Chippendales” (Nov. 22), a true-crime series starring Kumail Nanjiani as the immigrant founder of the 1980s male-stripper franchise, which chronicles his business empire’s rise and fall amid a blizzard of sex, drugs and violence.

    Meanwhile, Adam McKay (“The Big Short”) and Billy Corben (“Cocaine Cowboys”) have the documentary  “God Forbid: The Sex Scandal That Brought Down a Dynasty” (Nov. 1), about the private life of Christian televangelist and former Liberty University president Jerry Falwell Jr. and his very public downfall.

    See: Here’s everything new on Hulu in November 2022 — and what’s leaving

    There are also the final two episodes of “Atlanta” (series finale Nov. 10), whose fourth season has returned to brilliance after an underwhelming Season 3 over the summer, and new episodes every week of ABC’s “Abbott Elementary.”

    Who’s Hulu for? TV lovers. There’s a deep library for those who want older TV series and next-day streaming of many current network and cable shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. While you won’t regret paying for Hulu if you already do, there’s not a lot to lure new subscribers this month.

    Apple TV+ ($6.99 a month)

    Apple TV+ is too inconsistent to be worth the $2-a-month price hike that was just announced, so it’s best to strategically plan when to stream — wait until a good series or two are completed, for example, and binge them all in a month, then cancel. Repeat as needed.

    And it actually is a decent month for Apple. Its second-best comedy, “Mythic Quest” Nov. 11), returns for its third season, with Ian (Rob McElhenny) and Poppy (Charlotte Nicdao) gearing up for war against their old videogame company. With a perfect blend of humor and heart, it’s one of the best workplace comedies on TV.

    Meanwhile, Season 2 of “The Mosquito Coast” (Nov. 4) finds the fugitive Fox family finally hiding out in Central America, after a tedious premise-pilot of a first season that wasted good actors (Justin Theroux and Melissa George) and beautiful cinematography with nonsensical plot twists, while the action series “Echo 3” (Nov. 23) stars Luke Evans and Michiel Huisman as former soldiers trying to rescue a kidnapped scientist in the jungles of South America.

    Apple
    AAPL,
    +7.56%
    also has a pair of high-profile original movies: “Causeway” (Nov. 3), starring Jennifer Lawrence as a former soldier struggling to adjust to civilian life in New Orleans, co-starring Brian Tyree Henry, and “Spirited” (Nov. 18), a musical twist on “A Christmas Carol” told from the ghosts’ point of view, starring Ryan Reynolds and Will Ferrell.

    Who’s Apple TV+ for? It offers a little something for everyone, but not necessarily enough for anyone — although it’s getting there.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. There’s just not enough to justify a month-to-month subscription. December is a better bet, with “Mythic Quest” and a new season of “Slow Horses” running concurrently.

    Peacock (free basic level, Premium for $4.99 a month with ads, or $9.99 a month with no ads)

    The World Cup from Qatar (Nov. 20-Dec. 18) will be broadcast on Fox and FS1, so cord-cutters are out of luck, unless you subscribe to a live-streaming service like Hulu Live or YouTube TV. However, Peacock will stream every match in Spanish, which could be a decent Plan B for soccer fans.

    And that “it’ll-do-but-it’s-not-exactly-what-I’m-looking-for” description is the running theme for Peacock. November will bring a handful of originals that are unlikely to move the needle, subscriber-wise: There’s the musical-comedy spinoff series “Pitch Perfect: Bumper in Berlin” (Nov. 23), starring Adam Devine; “The Calling” (Nov. 10), a crime drama about a religious cop, from David E. Kelley and Barry Levinson; the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade (Nov. 24); and the streaming debut of Jordan Poole’s sci-fi/horror hit “Nope” (Nov. 18).

    Sports-wise, Peacock has the National Dog Show (hey, it’s a competition!) on Nov. 24, NFL Sunday Night Football every weekend, a full slate of English Premier League matches through Nov. 13, and a ton of golf and winter sports.

    Who’s Peacock for? If you have a Comcast 
    CMCSA,
    -0.06%
     or Cox cable subscription, you likely have free access to the Premium tier (with ads) — though reportedly not for much longer. The free tier is almost worthless, but the recent addition of next-day streaming of NBC and Bravo shows (like “Saturday Night Live” and “Real Housewives”) bolsters the case for paying for a subscription. Still, Peacock is still not really necessary unless you need it for sports.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. There’s not a lot that’s particularly enticing right now, even on the sports side.

    Discovery+ ($4.99 a month with ads, or $6.99 with no ads)

    More of the same in November for Discovery+, which is a feature, not a bug. Highlights include the vegan cook-and-chat show “Mary McCartney Serves It Up” (Nov. 1); “Tut’s Lost City Revealed” (Nov. 3), about a 3,000-year-old Egyptian city recently discovered by archaeologists; “Vardy vs Rooney: The Wagatha Trial” (Nov. 19), the inside story of the tabloid-fodder “Wagatha” scandal between the wives of English soccer stars; and Season 2 of the excellent CNN food series “Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy” (Nov. 30). Full disclosure: There are also a handful of sappy holiday movies guest-starring some HGTV and Food Network stars, but they look terrible and I expect better from you, a discerning reader/viewer.

    Who’s Discovery+ for? Cord-cutters who miss their unscripted TV or who are really, really into “90 Day Fiancé.”

    Play, pause or stop?  Stop. Discovery+ is still fantastic for background TV, but it’s not worth the cost. Still, it should add value when the reconfigured Warner Bros. Discovery 
    WBD,
    +3.68%
      combines it with HBO Max next summer.

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  • Netflix Adds a Better-Than-Expected 2.4 Million Subscribers

    Netflix Adds a Better-Than-Expected 2.4 Million Subscribers

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    Netflix


    shares were trading sharply higher after the streaming giant posted better-than-expected subscriber growth for the third quarter.

    The company added 2.41 million net new subscribers in the quarter, beating its own forecast of 1 million additions. Netflix (ticker: NFLX) said it expects to add another 4.5 million subscribers in the December quarter.

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  • Netflix snaps streak of subscriber declines and beats on earnings, stock jumps 15%

    Netflix snaps streak of subscriber declines and beats on earnings, stock jumps 15%

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    Netflix Inc. added more than 2 million subscribers in the third quarter after stumbling into 2022 with two consecutive quarterly declines, a rebound that sent shares more than 15% higher in after-hours trading Tuesday.

    Netflix 
    NFLX,
    -1.73%
    reported a net gain of 2.41 million subscribers in the third quarter, while analysts on average were forecasting 1.1 million net additions, according to FactSet. That follows a decline of roughly 200,000 subscribers in the first quarter and nearly a million in the second quarter, which has led the company to plan massive changes, including a cheaper, ad-supported streaming tier set to arrive in the fourth quarter.

    In a letter to shareholders, Netflix executives said they expect 4.5 million new subscribers to join in the fourth quarter, with revenue forecast to grow to $7.78 billion from $7.71 billion a year ago. Analysts on average were estimating revenue of $7.97 billion and a net subscriber gain of 4 million for the fourth quarter, according to FactSet.

    “After a challenging first half, we believe we’re on a path to reaccelerate growth,” executives wrote in the letter.

    The news sent Netflix shares up about 15% in after-hours trading following the release of the results, after closing with a 1.7% drop at $240.86. The stretch of subscriber declines has filleted Netflix shares, which have swooned 60% so far this year while the broader S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.14%
    has declined 22.8%.

    The streaming-video giant’s downturn after a pandemic-boosted surge has only intensified pressure from rival streaming services at Walt Disney Co. 
    DIS,
    +1.18%    ,
     Apple Inc. 
    AAPL,
    +0.94%    ,
    Amazon.com Inc. 
    AMZN,
    +2.26%    ,
    Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. 
    WBD,
    +4.55%    ,
    Comcast Corp. 
    CMCSA,
    -0.23%
    and Paramount Global 
    PARA,
    +1.56%    .

    That didn’t stop Netflix executives from taking a pot shot at streaming rivals over profitability. “Our competitors are investing heavily to drive subscribers and engagement, but building a large, successful streaming business is hard — we estimate they are all losing money, with combined 2022 operating losses well over $10 billion, vs. Netflix’s $5 to $6 billion annual operating profit,” Netflix executives said in the shareholder letter.

    A dramatic shift in the video-streaming climate, one in which Disney surpassed Netflix as market leader in July, has prompted a radical makeover at Netflix. Last week, the company announced its long-awaited advertising-supported tier, which debuts Nov. 3 in the U.S. for $6.99 a month. Another 11 countries, including Canada and Mexico, will get the service by Nov. 10. The company has also vowed a crackdown on shared accounts, and is pushing forward on gaming.

    The advertising-supported tier directly acknowledges competition and the necessity of Netflix “adapting to the streaming landscape’s new normal,” Insider Intelligence analyst Ross Benes said in a note late Tuesday.

    For more: Netflix lost its streaming crown to Disney. Here’s how execs expect to win it back.

    Netflix announced third-quarter earnings of $1.4 billion, or $3.10 a share, down from $3.16 a share a year ago. Netflix revenue improved to $7.93 billion in the quarter from $7.48 billion in the same period a year ago, but missed diminished expectations. Analysts polled by FactSet expected earnings of $2.14 a share on sales of $7.84 billion, estimates that had dipped in recent days.

    Tuesday’s results follow some serious self-reflection among Netflix executives on how to stanch a decline in visits among subscribers that has led to cancellations. Co-CEO Reed Hastings has consulted with staff to find ways to make subscribers visit the platform more frequently, according to reports by The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News.

    One such strategy is cracking down on multiple users sharing the same account. In the shareholder letter, Netflix said it has “landed on a thoughtful approach to monetize account sharing and we’ll begin rolling this out more broadly starting in early 2023.”

    “After listening to consumer feedback, we are going to offer the ability for borrowers to transfer their Netflix profile into their own account, and for sharers to manage their devices more easily and to create sub-accounts (‘extra member’), if they want to pay for family or friends,” the letter said. “In countries with our lower-priced ad-supported plan, we expect the profile transfer option for borrowers to be especially popular.”

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