Tag: nfl picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 10 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Raiders at Broncos (-9): The Broncos and Patri*ts have the longest winning streaks in the NFL, at 6 games each. Denver has a point differential on the season of +68; the Raiders have a point differential of -78. Easy survivor pool pick here, as we’ll get to momentarily.

Falcons at Colts (-6.5): If the Falcons lose this game, they’re heading to the graveyard in our NFC Hierarchy/Obituary. The Colts played their first truly bad game of the season Week 9. It’ll be interesting to see if they can bounce back. (Also, this will be Sauce Gardner’s first game in Indy after the Colts swung a blockbuster deal for him.)

Browns (-2.5) at Jets: The Jets made two blockbuster trades at the deadline:

1. They traded CB Sauce Gardner to the Colts for a first-round pick in 2026, a first-round pick in 2027, and WR Adonai Mitchell.
2. They traded DT Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys (lol) for a first-round pick in 2027, a second-round pick in 2026, and DT Mazi Smith.

Obviously, that’s a whole lot of draft capital, but also losing two of their best players will aid in efforts to tank for the No. 1 overall pick.

If the season ended today, the Jets would have the No. 3 overall pick, though they have played one fewer game than the Titans and Saints.

Saints at Panthers (-5.5): It’s pretty incredible that the Panthers have a winning record in November with the roster they have. They have a chance to be 6-4! For those of you still alive in survivor pools… got the stones to take them? (I don’t.)

Bills (-9.5) at Dolphins: The Bills swept the Dolphins in 2023 and 2024, and coming soon, 2025.

Jaguars (-1.5) at Texans: The Texans haven’t been that bad this season, despite their 3-5 record. They just haven’t been able to win close games. They have a +47 point differential at 3-5, while the Jags have a -8 point differential at 5-3. The Texans have also played a harder schedule so far, in my opinion. I think they’re the better team.

But, C.J. Stroud has a concussion and won’t play. I’d really love to take the Texans at home with points but I just can’t make that one of my spread picks this week.

Ravens (-4) at Vikings: The Ravens feel primed to go on a run with Lamar Jackson back at quarterback, and their defense has been better in recent weeks after a putrid start to the season.

Patriots at Buccaneers (-2.5): As noted above, the Patri*ts have a six-game winning streak, tied for the best in the NFL. Credit them for taking care of business, but they have also played the weakest schedule in the NFL, per Inpredictable. That streak ends Week 10 in Tampa against a good Bucs team coming off their bye.

Giants at Bears (-4.5): The Bears are a “bad 5-3 team,” but the Giants are a “bad 2-7 team.” This line was Bears (-2.5) earlier in the week, and I was ready to jump all over that, but it’s not quite as tasty at 4.5. 

Cardinals at Seahawks (-6.5): The Seahawks have won eight straight in this rivalry, including a matchup earlier this season. But also, the Seahawks look like they might be a pretty good football team.

Lions (-7.5) at Commanders: The Commanders are dead. Jayden Daniels’ season is very likely over, and their defense sucks. Meanwhile, the Lions probably can’t wait to light up the Commanders in their building after the Commanders ended their season in the playoffs last year. I don’t normally like laying more than 7 points, but I’ll make an exception here.

Rams (-4.5) at 49ers: The 49ers are now without Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and rookie 11th overall pick Mykel Williams for the season. Meanwhile, the Rams are extremely healthy for a Week 10 game. It doesn’t matter to me whether Brock Purdy or Mac Jones starts. The Rams are a much better team either way.

Steelers at Chargers (-3): The Steelers have lost six straight playoff games, while Justin Herbert is 0-2 in the playoffs. So I guess that makes this matchup the One And Done Bowl. I don’t like this Steelers team even a little bit, but they have a huge matchup advantage with their edge rushers against a Chargers offensive line that is without Rashawn Slater and now also Joe Alt.

Eagles at Packers (-2.5): The Eagles should be rested and spry coming out of the bye, and they probably played their best football of the season in the two games preceding it.

• Passing game starting to come together while keeping opposing defenses guessing… ✔️

• Rushing attack showing signs of life… ✔️

• Interior defensive line beginning to make some noise… ✔️

• Edge rusher reinforcements on the way… ✔️

Meanwhile, the Packers lost an ugly game at home to the Panthers Week 9. They will be without their best weapon in the passing game in TE Tucker Kraft, and likely also without their best wide receiver, Jayden Reed. Those guys do a lot of damage in the intermediate areas of the field as well as after the catch in ways that their other receivers do not.

The Packers have talent, and their defense has been very good so far this season. They are stout against the run, and then obviously Micah Parsons has given their pass rush a big jolt. However, they have only forced five turnovers this season, second-worst in the NFL, and they’re playing an Eagles team that has only turned it over three times this season, least in the NFL.

I like the Eagles’ chances of winning the turnover battle, and in turn, the game.

BYE: Cowboys, Chiefs, Bengals, Titans.

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 6 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Eagles (-7) at Giants: Of the players available to play in this matchup, there is one player on the Giants’ starting offense who is better than the player at the corresponding spot on the Eagles’ offense:

Obviously, the offenses don’t face each other, but it underscores the point that the Giants have very little to work with on offense.

Defensively, while the Giants have a bunch of talented pass rushers, their defense gives up a lot of points and yards: 

 
I believe the Eagles can get their run game going against this team, which will in turn open up the rest of the offense.

On the intangible front, as we reported earlier in the week, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and Saquon Barkley had an hours-long conversation about the offense on Monday. On the one hand, it’s probably not great that such a meeting was necessary. On the other hand, it does feel like an acknowledgement from the team’s star players that they need to put aside whatever is going between them personally and work toward the common goal. I think they smoke this “get right” Giants team.

Broncos (-7.5) at Jets: This matchup is in London. The Broncos played their game in Philly, and then went directly to England thereafter. They could be a little travel weary, but the Jets have proven to be little more than a speed bump for their opponents this season.

Cowboys (-3) at Panthers: The Cowboys aren’t bad! At a minimum, they can score. I mean, they’re not really good either, but being “not bad” is good enough against this improving but still bad Panthers team.

A site that I love for making picks is Inpredictable, because it ranks teams based on betting market information. If I see a team that I think is rated too low, then I also think that they are being undervalued by Vegas. Conversely, if I see a team that is being rated too high, then they are being overvalued. The Cowboys are traditionally overrated by Vegas, but I think that has actually swung hard in the opposite direction this year, given their extremely visible trade of Micah Parsons and the general lack of confidence of them as a winning franchise.

But they’re ranked 22 at Inpredictable! That is WAY too low. They’re behind teams like the Cardinals, for example. They are a bargain bet right now. 

Browns at Steelers (-6.5): I like that the Browns just went ahead and traded Joe Flacco, their safety net quarterback, and are going to roll with their rookies the rest of the way. I also like their defense, and they have begun to find a run game with Quinshon Judkins. 

The Steelers just don’t have much offensively. Sandy Hook conspiracist Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field anymore, and the Steelers can’t run it. I don’t like their chances of beating many teams by two scores. By that logic, I love getting 6.5 points with the Browns, though I’ll take the Steelers to win.

Cardinals at Colts (-7): The Cardinals are through the super easy part of their schedule, and it’s only going to get harder from here on out.

I don’t think Jonathan Gannon is going to make it through the season.

Rams (-7.5) at Ravens: The Ravens’ inactives last week:

They also put DT Nnamdi Madubuike on IR. Teams that play the Ravens while they’re going through their injury issues have a major advantage over the teams that have to face them later in the season.

Seahawks at Jaguars (-1.5): The Jaguars have pulled out some wild games this season and are a fun story at 4-1. But overall, Sam Darnold is playing really well, and the up until last week Seattle’s defense was balling. I like the Seahawks to win outright as road dogs.

Chargers (-4) at Dolphins: Every freaking year I put some trust this stupid Chargers team, and every year they burn me. A (-4) spread against a horrid Dolphins team looks so tempting, but I’m done being fooled by these losers.

Patri*ts (-3.5) at Saints: The Patri*ts are an up and coming team, with Drake Maye playing well and Mike Vrabel “uglying up” games and leveling the playing field against more talented opponents. In this case, they’re the better team. 

Titans at Raiders (-4.5): The NFL’s INT leaders through five games:

1. Geno Smith, Raiders: 9
2. Jake Browning, Bengals: 8
3. Joe Flacco, Browns/Bengals: 6
4. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: 5

The “Geno Smith is a god” wannabe quarterback gurus are awfully quiet. And you know what? What the hell, give me the Titans with no conviction whatsoever.

49ers at Buccaneers (-2.5): A 2.5-point spread indicates that these two teams are similarly matched. They are not. The Buccaneers are a much better football team than the 49ers, in my opinion, with a better quarterback, a better offensive line, and healthier skill position players (even though they themselves are missing a bunch of guys). I’ve been awful against the spread this season, but the one thing so far that I have identified correctly is that the sportsbooks are wildly underrating this Bucs team. I’ll gladly lay 2.5 points.

Bengals at Packers (-14): The Bengals traded for Joe Flacco on Wednesday, and he is expected to start in Green Bay on Sunday against the Packers, a team he already beat earlier this year when he played for the Browns. I actually think Flacco improves the Bengals’ chances of winning this game substantially, which is more of an indictment of how badly Jake Browning played in relief of Joe Burrow.

Still, the Packers are the very obvious survivor pool pick this week, if you haven’t used them yet. Unfortunately, it’ll probably be everyone else’s pick, too, so if they win there’s unlikely to be many survivor participants dropping out.

Lions at Chiefs (-2.5): Am I missing something? Again, a 2.5-point spread indicates that these two teams are similarly matched. They are not. The Lions are clearly the better team, and it’s not as if playing at Arrowhead is some hopeless endeavor, seeing as the Chiefs already have two losses there this season. The Lions do have some important players on their injury report, and the Chiefs are getting healthier, but the Lions have four emphatic wins in a row, and and they have more than enough firepower to compensate for a handful of banged-up players. They’re the best team in the league right now, and if you’re going to give me the best team in the league, plus points, I’ll bite.

Bills (-4) at Falcons: The Bills are coming off a bad, three turnover home loss to the Patri*ts. I haven’t lost faith that more often than not the Bills are going to put 30+ on the scoreboard, and I don’t think the Falcons can match them. For a team with the firepower to win a lot of games by multiple scores, only laying 4 feels like a decent bargain.

Bears at Commanders (-4.5): This was the matchup in 2024 that ended with Tyrique Stevenson taunting Commanders fans while the Commanders were running a Hail Mary, and the guy Stevenson was supposed to be covering caught the game-winning TD. 

This is also a matchup between the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.

I do have serious concerns with the Commanders’ secondary, and the Bears have receivers to take advantage, but it just feels like the Bears are behind the Commanders in their development as hopeful contender. Interesting matchup, though!

BYE: Vikings, Texans

Colts (-4) at Titans: I mean…

Jones leads the NFL in YPA (9.3), he’s sixth both in QBR and QB rating, and the Colts are 2-0.

Jets at Buccaneers (-7): Each week in our preview of the Eagles’ next matchup, we try to take a look at their opponent’s offensive line. I’m going to get a little bit of a head start on the Bucs’ offensive line here, since it is a major issue for them at the moment. If everyone were healthy, Tampa’s offensive line would look like this:

Wirfs started the season on the PUP list after having surgery on his right knee. Rather than have swing tackle Charlie Heck fill in directly for Wirfs, they moved Barton from C to LT, and Bredeson from LG to C. At LG, they inserted Michael Jordan, a guy they had originally signed to their practice squad after 53-man cutdowns.

During their Week 2 win over the Texans, Goedeke injured his foot, and Heck filled in at RT. Goedeke is expected to miss “multiple weeks.”

It was reported on Wednesday that Mauch’s season is over with a knee injury. It is unknown who would fill in for Mauch at RG.

In other words, there are likely to be zero spots along the Bucs’ offensive line that will be manned by the player they intended when forming their roster.

I’m still picking them to win because the Jets stink, but I will take the Jets plus the 7 points, even with Tyrod Taylor replacing Justin Fields at quarterback.

Falcons (-5.5) at Panthers: The Falcons held the Bucs to 260 yards Week 1, and the Vikings to 198 yards Week 2. They have my attention.

Raiders at Commanders (-3): The wannabe QB gurus were awfully quiet after Geno Smith’s three-INT Monday Night Football performance against the Chargers.Marcus Mariota could start for the Commanders in this game in place of Jayden Daniels, and while I don’t love this Commanders roster, I certainly like it better than the Raiders’.

Packers (-7.5) at Browns: The Packers have probably been the most impressive team in the NFC to begin the season. I don’t like Joe Flacco’s chances of ducking the Green Bay pass rush.

Bengals at Vikings (-3): This will be a battle of backup quarterbacks. The Bengals will start Jake Browning, while the Vikings will start old friend Carson Wentz. I don’t like either backup, but at least Browning is in his fifth season in Cincy and knows the offense, while Wentz is starting a game for the sixth different team in six seasons, and he hasn’t even been a Viking for a month.

Steelers (-2) at Patriots: These are two bad teams. The Pats are at least maybe on the way up with Drake Maye at quarterback, while the Steelers are trying to hang onto mediocrity with Aaron Rodgers for some reason. Give me the team with some hope for the future.

Texans at Jaguars (-2): It just occurred to me that the AFC South has the highest drafted quarterbacks on average in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence and Cam Ward both went 1st overall, C.J. Stroud went 2nd, and Daniel Jones 6th. 

I don’t have any actual analysis of this game, because really, who cares?

Broncos at Chargers (-3): The Chargers defense has been what people thought the Broncos defense would be this season.

Saints at Seahawks (-7.5): The Seahawks aren’t legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but they’ll win 8 or 9 games. This will be one of them.

Cowboys at Bears (-1.5): In their last five quarters the Bears have allowed 73 points.

Cardinals at 49ers (-2.5): Brock Purdy may or may not play in this game, so picking this game on Thursday feels kind of pointless. I think I’m just rooting for Mac Jones to play again, and play well, so that I can watch 49ers fans fight over whether or not they should have given Purdy a $265 million contract.

Barring a tie, one of these very average teams will be 3-0 after this matchup.

Chiefs (-6.5) at Giants: Wait, the Giants got a Week 3 Sunday Night Football game? And last week we got Falcons-Vikings? Who at NBC isn’t fighting hard enough for better games?

Anyway, are we sure the Chiefs are still good? I kinda feel like they might not be, and will miss the playoffs? But for one week they’ll look better. The Giants have a way of making opponents feel good about themselves.

Lions at Ravens (-5): This is the game of the week. The Ravens have put up 40+ points in both of their games so far. They scored 30 or more points in 11 games last year. The Lions 50-burgered the Bears last week, but looked terrible Week 1 against the Packers. I guess I just trust the Ravens’ ability to consistently score a lot of points, especially when the stakes aren’t really that high yet. 

Survivor pick ☠️

The Bills are the chalk pick this week, and, well, I’m going chalk, just like I did Week 1 and Week 2. 🤷‍♂️

1. Week 1: Eagles
2. Week 2: Ravens
3. Week 3: Bills

Call me a coward if you will, but I’m still alive.

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 2 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Commanders at Packers (-3.5): My “NFL fanbases that are smelling themselves” power rankings:

1. Commanders: They had their first encouraging season in a long time in 2024, and are (understandably) overrating how good their team is.
2. Packers: Now that they have Micah Parsons, they think they’re winning a Super Bowl.

One of these fan bases is going to get a dose of reality on Thursday night. My guess is that it will be the Commanders.

One matchup that I think could be particularly troublesome for the Commanders is rookie RT Josh Conerly against Parsons. Conerly, the Commanders’ first-round pick this year, had never played RT until this season, so he is tasked with rewiring his brain and learning how to pass set on the other side. That can be easier said than done. Some guys can do it, piece of cake. Others, like Eagles fans saw with Andre Dillard, for example, could not. But I imagine the Packers are going to line up Parsons against Conerly all night on obvious passing downs.

Giants at Cowboys (-5.5): The Cowboys have won 15 of the last 16 matchups between these two teams, including sweeps each of the last four years.

It doesn’t even matter if Dak Prescott is available to play against the Giants, as Cooper Rush won two of those games.

Entering the season, it felt like the Cowboys were on a steep downward trajectory, while the Giants were maybe going to show signs of improvement. But the Cowboys played hard and were competitive against the Eagles Week 1, while the Giants looked like the same old trash in a non-competitive loss to the Commanders.

It would be silly to pick the Giants in this rivalry, especially as long as Brian Daboll and the Giants organization keep trotting out a cooked Russell Wilson.

Patriots at Dolphins (-1.5): Early in the season, the Dolphins have a built-in advantage at home, where their sideline at Hard Rock Stadium is covered, and thus is substantially cooler than the opposing sideline, which is out in the sun.

Unfortunately, Miami looked like hot burning trash Week 1, as they got wrecked by the Daniel Jones-led Colts. I won’t be picking them to win many games this season.

The Patriots didn’t look much better, as they lost at home to the Raiders. I do believe in Drake Maye to some degree, so give me the Pats, I guess, with little confidence. 

Jaguars at Bengals (-3.5): It was ugly, but the Bengals got a divisional road win against the Browns on Sunday, when they have traditionally started slowly. The Jags are also 1-0, after easily handling the Panthers.

I don’t love the Bengals’ defense or their offensive line, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ skill players should be enough to take down the Jags. I do think this game has sneaky upset potential, so beware in your survivor pools.

Browns at Ravens (-12.5): Obviously, the Ravens have a lot more talent than the Browns, but these two teams have actually split each of the last four seasons. I was impressed with the Browns when they came to Philly for joint practices this summer, and they nearly beat the Bengals Week 1. I’m picking the Ravens in my survivor pool, but I also think that 12.5 points is way too big of a spread. I’ll take the Ravens to win, obviously, but give me the Browns and the points.

For the gambling degenerates, I kind of like the idea of hedging this game. Take the Ravens in your survivor pool, and take the Browns money line for a big payout if things go very wrong.

Rams (-5.5) at Titans: Cam Ward showed glimpses of talent, but the Titans offense did not look very capable of putting points on the board. I do think they have some nice pieces on defense, and will win some rock fights this year, but not this week against a Rams team that can score points.

Bills (-6.5) at Jets: With a little luck, the Bills knocked off the Ravens Week 1, and are clearly Super Bowl contenders. But this line scares me. The Jets looked like a team capable of competing with good teams, and yet I still can’t trust them, because, you know, they’re the Jets. I’m just staying away.

Bears at Lions (-6.5): This is a matchup between new Bears HC Ben Johnson and Jared Goff, the quarterback for whom Johnson formerly called plays. The Bears choked away a two-score lead Week 1 to the Vikings, but at least looked competitive. The Lions showed very little juice Week 1 against the Packers. I expect the Lions to get back to .500 with a win, but 6.5 points is a pretty big spread. 

Seahawks at Steelers (-2.5): The 49ers tried their hardest to give the Seahawks a Week 1 win last Sunday, but the Seahawks were adamant that they didn’t want it. Meanwhile, the Steelers scratched and clawed their way to a tough road win over a surprisingly frisky Jets team. The Seahawks have very little to get excited about, and will probably lose a lot of games, while the Steelers once again look like a team capable of yet another winning record, followed by a quick exit in the playoffs.

49ers (-3) at Saints: This line was originally 49ers (-7), but Brock Purdy is unlikely to play with a toe injury. He also has a left shoulder injury, but that is less serious. Mac Jones will start on Sunday if indeed Purdy can’t go. The 49ers will also be without George Kittle for at least the next four games, as he was placed on IR. The Niners can probably weather those losses against what might be the worst team in the NFL, but what looked like a “money in the bank” win in New Orleans could be more of a struggle.

Panthers at Cardinals (-6.5): It doesn’t get much easier than the Saints Week 1, and Panthers Week 2. The Cardinals are poised to start 2-0 for the first time since 2021. 

Broncos (-1.5) at Colts: Bo Nix had some ugly moments in the Broncos’ Week 1 win over the Titans, but ultimately it’s the Denver defense that has people thinking they can be Super Bowl contenders. That side of the ball didn’t disappoint, as they held Tennessee to 133 total yards and 2/14 efficiency on third down. Daniel Jones and the Colts offense looked surprisingly good Week 1 against a bad Dolphins defense, but the Broncos D is an entirely different animal, and I do expect Nix to play better. 

Eagles (-1) at Chiefs: In their Week 1 game against the Chargers, the Chiefs’ offense looked sluggish in a way that I haven’t seen since Patrick Mahomes has been their starting quarterback. Well, the Super Bowls against the Eagles and Bucs excluded, I guess. Every first down seemed like a struggle, and often necessitated some kind of unsustainable Houdini play by Mahomes. And for good reason. Mahomes aside, they don’t have good players.

• The starting receivers are currently Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton. You can find the NFL’s starting receivers by team here. How many wide receiver trios would you take over the Chiefs’? Like.. 29? 30? All of them?

• The top two running backs are Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco. They combined to average 3.7 yards per carry in 2024. They got a combined 10 carries Week 1.

• The offensive line has shaky starters at RT (Jawaan Taylor) and LG (Kingsley Suamataia); and a rookie coming off a major knee injury at LT (Josh Simmons).

• Travis Kelce is still a good tight end, but no longer the elite player he once was.

This is a below-average offense, in my opinion, even with Mahomes running the show.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ defense lost a couple of good starters in free agency in DT Travelle Wharton and S Justin Reid. They were replaced by lesser players in DT Jerry Tillery and second-year S Jaden Hicks.

It was funny to me to see the Chiefs open as favorites in this game (although the line has since shifted to the Eagles). Why would this team be favored? Because the Chiefs have Mahomes and Reid? Didn’t we already learn that lesson seven months ago? The Eagles are simply a much better team, and they’re going to win comfortably on Sunday. The Chiefs get a late garbage-time TD and two-point conversion to make the score look closer than it is, and the Eagles recover an onsides kick to seal the win. 28-25.

Falcons at Vikings (-3.5): It took a little while, but J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings offense eventually found their sea legs Week 1 on the road against the Bears. I like their chances of taking care of business against this overrated Falcons team.

Buccaneers at Texans (-2.5): The Texans are going to be a frustrating team to pick and pick against this season. One the one hand, they have an elite pass rushing duo in Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, to go along with one of the best defensive secondaries in the NFL. On the other hand, that offensive line still sucks. They’re capable of beating the best teams, and losing to worst ones.

With the Bucs, on the other hand, you kind of know what you’re getting. They’re going to play good defense, they have a decent enough O-line even with Tristin Wirfs out, Baker Mayfield has become a top 10-ish type of quarterback, and they have good skill position players. I just trust them to win games, and sure, I’ll also take 2.5 points. 

Chargers (-3.5) at Raiders: This game is scheduled to kick off at 10 p.m. EST, which means my old ass won’t see it. I like regular season stud Justin Herbert’s chances of keeping his momentum going against a Raiders defense with a suspect secondary.

Survivor pick ☠️

I had a bad Week 1 picking games straight up (9-7) and against the spread (3-4), but for the first time in a couple years I advanced to Week 2 in my survivor pool. 🎉

So I have that going for me, which is nice. I’m not going to try to be a hero Week 2. Just take the Ravens and keep that momentum going.

1. Week 1: Eagles
2. Week 2: Ravens

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 1 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Cowboys at Eagles (-8.5): The Eagles have advantages in the run game and the passing game on both sides of the ball, which we outlined in our game preview.

• Eagles run game vs. Cowboys run defense: This one is easy. The Cowboys’ run defense was abysmal in 2024, and they didn’t do much to fix it this offseason. The Eagles have an elite rushing offense.

• Eagles passing attack vs. Cowboys pass defense: The Cowboys traded their best pass rusher (and best overall player) in Micah Parsons, and although their cornerback position might not be bad when fully healthy, they’re banged up there to start the season. The Eagles have one of the best WR duos in the NFL in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith; and a very good tight end in Dallas Goedert.

• Cowboys run game vs. Eagles run defense: The Cowboys rushed for 100.3 yards per game last season, 27th in the NFL. This year they’re rolling with Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and rookie Jaydon Blue in their backfield. The Eagles finished 10th in run defense in 2024, but only gave up 6 runs of 20+ yards (3rd best in the NFL), 0 runs of 40+ yards (tied for best), and 9 rushing TDs (second best).

• Cowboys passing attack vs. Eagles pass defense: The Cowboys boast a talented trio of receivers in CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Kavontae Turpin, who will test an Eagles secondary consisting of two budding stars in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, but also a potential weak spot in whoever starts at CB2 (likely Adoree’ Jackson). However, whatever weak spot the Eagles have at CB2 is offset — and then some — by the Cowboys’ offensive tackle duo of Tyler Guyton and Terrence Steele, arguably the worst tackle tandem in the NFC.

The Eagles tend to start the season slowly, even if they have a 4-0 record Week 1 under Nick Sirianni. But they are just a far better team, and I can’t imagine morale is super high at the moment in that Dallas locker room.

Chiefs (-3) at Chargers: I imagine that when the Chargers were getting their first look at the 2025 schedule, they were thinking, “No Week 1 against the Chiefs🤞 , no Week 1 against the Chiefs 🤞. Crap.”

The Chiefs would be the last team I’d want to face after they were humiliated in the Super Bowl, and super eager to have a good feeling on the football field again.

Giants at Commanders (-6.5): In Week 2 last season, the Giants lost their kicker on the opening kickoff against the Commanders, forcing them to go for two after all three of their touchdowns. They failed on all three attempts, because, you know, they’re the Giants. The Giants were also forced to go for it on 4th and 4 at the Commanders’ 22 yard line with two minutes to go and the score tied 18-18, a very clear field goal situation. They didn’t get it, again, because they’re the Giants. The Commanders then kicked a game winning field goal, winning 21-18, on seven field goals. That was one of many lucky Commanders wins last year.

In Week 9, it wasn’t quite as close a game, but the Giants kept the final score to within 5 points. In recent years, the Commanders have been the only team the Giants could consistently beat, and even last year they played them tough. I’m not dumb enough to pick the Giants to win a Week 1 road game, but I do think it’ll be a competitive game. Commanders to win, but against the spread give me the Giants and the points.

Steelers (-2.5) at Jets: I’ve finally come around to the conclusion that Justin Fields is just a bad quarterback, and always will be. And yet, if I were given the choice between him or Aaron Rodgers for one season at this stage of their respective careers, I’m not so sure I’d take Rodgers.

This will be a defensive struggle between two teams with bad starting quarterbacks, and I like the Steelers’ defensive big play potential more than the Jets’.

Dolphins at Colts (-1.5): I don’t like this Dolphins team even a little bit, and generally think Mike McDaniel is a fraud, but it’s hard to get past that the Colts are starting Daniel Jones.

Panthers at Jaguars (-3.5): It’s only Week 1 and I already couldn’t care less about either of these teams.

Bengals (-5.5) at Browns: The Bengals have been habitually slow starters, so head coach Zac Taylor had Joe Burrow start two preseason games, and let him attempt 24 passes. Maybe that will help. I dunno. The Bengals are better, obviously, and I’m picking them to win, but I was actually kind of impressed by the Browns during joint practices with the Eagles this summer and will take the 5.5 points.

Raiders at Patriots (-2.5): From The Ringer: 

Geno Smith, 35 years old, 95 games played, 84 starts, career losing record, no playoff wins, “still has plenty to learn.” 9th best quarterback in the NFL, lol.

Cardinals (-6.5) at Saints: The Saints are probably the worst team in the NFL, hence their 6.5-point home underdog status against the mediocre Cardinals.

Buccaneers (-1.5) at Falcons: Despite the Bucs winning their fourth consecutive NFC South title in 2024, the Falcons actually swept them last year. Still, this Bucs roster is very clearly the class of the NFC South, and in my opinion the second-best team in the NFC. They’re just a lot better than the perennially overrated Falcons, so I’ll gladly lay the 1.5 points.

Titans at Broncos (-8): I’m curious to see Bo Nix in Year 2, and Cam Ward in Year 1. This is a “feeling out” game for me.

49ers (-2.5) at Seahawks: The Seahawks have no chance of contending for a Super Bowl with Sam Darnold at quarterback, though I suppose Darnold did win his share of regular season games last season with the Vikings. The 49ers had a nightmare season in 2024, but enter 2025 with an over/under win total of 10.5. I just don’t see that, even with an extraordinarily soft schedule. Give me the Seahawks, with no conviction whatsoever.

Lions at Packers (-2.5): This line jumped a full point after the Packers’ acquisition of Micah Parsons, who will probably play a limited number of snaps after missing all of training camp. The Lions are still the better team, in my opinion, so give me them to win outright, and sure, I’ll take the 2.5 points on top of that.

Texans at Rams (-3.5): This opinion goes against the norm a bit, but I just don’t think the Rams are going to be a strong contender in the NFC this season. I have them at 9 wins. The Texans will be a fascinating team to watch. They’re hoping for a bounce-back season from C.J. Stroud in front of a very suspect offensive line, but what they do have is two outstanding edge rushers in Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, coupled with one of the best secondaries in the NFL, led by Derek Stingley. I like the Texans’ defense’s chances of stealing this game on the road.

Ravens at Bills (-1.5): I do think the Bills will ultimately earn the 1 seed in the AFC because they play in such an awful division, but the Ravens always seem to start the season strongly. The Ravens earn a statement win to begin their 2025 campaign in a battle of the last two NFL MVPs.

Vikings (-1.5) at Bears: The Vikings are one of my sleepers this season, which feels like a weird thing to say about a team that went 14-3 last season. The Bears feel like a Falcons-like team that gets overhyped for no good reason.

Survivor pick ☠️

1. Week 1: Eagles 🦅