[ad_1]
11) 49ers (6-11 in 2024): The Niners’ 2025 opponents had a combined record of 120-169 (0.415) and a combined point differential of -845 in 2024. They very well could land back in the playoffs after a miserable 2024 season.
If they do sneak into the tourney because of their impossibly easy schedule, they’re going to be an ideal first-round opponent and a quick out.
10) Falcons (8-9 in 2024): The Falcons haven’t had a player notch 10 sacks in a season since 2016, when Vic Beasley had 15.5. They also haven’t had anyone with at least 7 sacks in the last five seasons. Their sack leaders, by season:
No wonder they made an asinine trade for an edge rusher during the 2025 draft. As a reminder, the Falcons traded their second-round pick (46th overall), their first-round pick in 2026, and a seventh-round pick in 2025 to the Rams for the 26th overall pick, and a third-round comp pick (101st overall).
If the Falcons are awful in 2025 and that 2026 first-round pick ends up in the top 10, then the Rams may have gotten more valuable draft capital from the Falcons for James Pearce than the Cowboys got for Micah Parsons.
9) Seahawks (10-7 in 2024): Sam Darnold folded faster than Superman on laundry day when faced with pressure in the playoffs last season. Now he’ll play behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
8) Cardinals (8-9 in 2024): Ohhhhh, OK, I see why Gannon has the third-best odds of winning NFL Coach of the Year. Nine of the Cardinals’ first 11 opponents had losing records in 2024, and a combined record of 75-112 (0.401), with a combined point differential of -643.
| Week |
Opponent |
2024 record |
2024 Point differential |
| 1 |
At Saints |
5-12 |
-60 |
| 2 |
Panthers |
5-12 |
-193 |
| 3 |
At 49ers |
6-11 |
-47 |
| 4 |
Seahawks |
10-7 |
+7 |
| 5 |
Titans |
3-14 |
-149 |
| 6 |
At Colts |
8-9 |
-50 |
| 7 |
Packers |
11-6 |
+122 |
| 8 |
BYE |
|
|
| 9 |
At Cowboys |
7-10 |
-118 |
| 10 |
At Seahawks |
10-7 |
+7 |
| 11 |
49ers |
6-11 |
-47 |
| 12 |
Jaguars |
4-13 |
-115 |
It does get a little harder after that, but man if this team isn’t at least 6-5 at that point in the season just fire him in-season.
7) Commanders (11-6 in 2024): On the evening of NFL 53-man cutdowns, we published our yearly age rankings, and the Commanders were the oldest team in the NFL, by far. In fact, they were the oldest team since we started calculating age at 53-man cutdowns in 2012, again, by far.
Commanders fans’ collective reaction to these facts was something like this:
I’ll give their most common rebuttals, and react to each of them.
• Rebuttal No. 1: Their QB3 (Josh Johnson, 39), punter (Tress Way, 35), and long snapper (Tyler Ott, 33) heavily skew their average age.
#JimmySays: They skew the average age, but not that heavily.
To begin, 21 of the NFL’s 32 teams have long snappers who are 30 years of age or older. From a comparative perspective, taking Ott out doesn’t skew much if you take out every long snapper, league wide.
If you take out Johnson and Way, it drops their average age from 28.09 to 27.75, which still makes them the oldest team we’ve ever calculated by a comfortable margin.
If you take out Johnson, Way, Ott, and another three backups in Eddie Goldman (31), Nick Bellore (36), and George Fant (33) — and don’t do age gymnastics for any other team — they’re still the second-oldest team in the NFL, barely behind the Steelers.
There’s no getting around it. It’s a crazy old roster.
• Rebuttal No. 2: The Commanders drafted poorly during the Ron Rivera era, so the Commanders had no choice but to load up with old players to fill out the roster.
#JimmySays: You know what’s a good way to further deplete the young player pipeline? Trading a slew of picks for three older vets on the downsides of their careers, in Laremy Tunsil, Deebo Samuel, and Marshon Lattimore.
Lattimore looked cooked last season, Deebo hasn’t been good in like four years, and Tunsil led the league in penalties in 2024.
And they didn’t have to almost exclusively load up on old players. They had a lot of cap space, and could have absolutely been more selective about adding players in the 25-28 range who could’ve potentially grown with the team.
Rebuttal No. 3: The Commanders’ window to win is right now, while Jayden Daniels is on his rookie contract.
#JimmySays: I do agree that the team’s brass may very well be thinking this way, which is a failure to understand that they lucked into an NFC Championship Game appearance last season, when the shellacking they took in Philly should’ve revealed a more realistic outlook on where they are as a franchise.
But also, the last time a team won a Super Bowl with a quarterback on his rookie contract was in 2013, when the Seahawks did it with Russell Wilson. Is it an advantage to have a good quarterback on a rookie contract? Sure! Should you build your roster on the premise that it’s an unclearable hurdle if you don’t? Of course not!
Daniels is likely going to be a great player for the next decade-plus. The more good young players they can surround him with long-term, the better chance they’ll have for sustained success. Instead, they brought in double-digit mercenaries in their 30’s, the majority of whom will be gone in a year. And then what? They do it again because Daniels will still have one year left before he is eligible for a second contract?
Rebuttal No. 4: Yeah, they’re old. So what?
#JimmySays: Seriously? As players age into their 30’s, they often decline. And it’s not just a handful of guys. They have 25 (!) players who are 29 years of age or older. The next closest team has 17. How many of those guys are going to worse players than they were a year ago? Spoiler: It’s not going to be like 2 or 3.
But then also, obviously, as players age they become more prone to injury.
Strategically, the Commanders had an odd offseason.
6) Vikings (14-3 in 2024): The Vikings have a good offensive line; passing game targets that include Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Adam Thielen, and T.J. Hockenson; a smart veteran running back in Aaron Jones; and a defense that finished second in takeaways in 2024. J.J. McCarthy is in a pretty great situation for his first year as a starting quarterback.
5) Rams (10-7 in 2024): Per ESPN’s Dan Graziano, Matthew Stafford’s back injury is going to have to be managed all season.
The Rams believe starting QB Matthew Stafford is on track to be healthy and start Week 1 after struggling throughout camp with a back injury that stubbornly refused to follow his or the team’s recovery timetable. But Stafford is 37 years old and has dealt with back issues in the past. (To his credit, he has found ways to play through them.) My understanding is that this isn’t something the Rams expect to sideline Stafford for a long period of time or affect his play early in the season, but that it is something that will need to be monitored and managed throughout the season.
As noted above, as players age, they accumulate injuries over time, and it affects their play. Stafford is now 37. Back issues at that age are tough, as I’m sure many of my readers can corroborate.
4) Packers (11-6 in 2024): The Packers now have four really good defenders in Micah Parsons, Rashan Gary, Edgerrin Cooper, and Xavier McKinney. My NFC top foursome of defenders power rankings:
- Eagles: Jalen Carter, Zack Baun, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean
- Packers: Parsons, Gary, Cooper, McKinney
- Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, Alim McNeil
Unfortunately for the Packers, they led the charge to ban a play they don’t want to have to stop, and the football gods will never allow them to immediately then win a Super Bowl.
2) Lions (15-2 in 2024): The Lions lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs this offseason. That doesn’t happen very often. Recent occurrences:
• In 2023, the Eagles lost Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon. Brian Johnson replaced Steichen. Sean Desai replaced Gannon, and was then replaced himself in-season by Matt Patricia. They all got fired after a brutal collapse to close the season.
• In 2014, the Bengals lost Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer. They were replaced by Hue Jackson and Paul Guenther. The 2013 Bengals went 10-6, the 2014 Bengals went 10-5-1. Both teams got knocked out in the first round of the playoffs.
• In 2007, the Chargers lost Cam Cameron and Wade Phillips. They were replaced by Clarence Shelmon and Ted Cottrell. The 2006 Chargers went 14-2, the 2007 Chargers went 11-5. The 2006 Chargers got knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. The 2007 Chargers actually made it to the AFCCG, but lost to the Patriots.
• In 2005, the Patriots lost Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. They didn’t hire an offensive coordinator to replace Weis. They promoted Eric Mangini to DC. The 2004 Patriots went 14-2 and won the Super Bowl. The 2005 Pats went 10-6 and got knocked out in the divisional round.
• In 1995, the 49ers lost Mike Shanahan and Ray Rhodes. They were replaced by Marc Trestman and Pete Carroll. The 1994 49ers went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl. The 1995 49ers went 10-6 and got knocked out in the first playoff game (in the divisional round).
Anyway, the moral of the story here is that when you lose your offensive and defensive coordinators in the same offseason, it’s more likely — but not a lock — that the next season won’t go as well.
1) Eagles (Super Bowl champions in 2024): The Eagles lost six starters (five to free agency and one to injury), they hardly spent any money in free agency, and yet they still pretty clearly in my opinion have the best roster in the NFL.
Follow Jimmy & PhillyVoice on Twitter: @JimmyKempski | thePhillyVoice
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
Add Jimmy’s RSS feed to your feed reader
[ad_2]
Jimmy Kempski
Source link