Tag: NCAR

The Trump administration is moving to dismantle one of the world’s leading climate and weather research institutions, the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., in a decision experts say will undermine U.S. scientific competitiveness and leave millions vulnerable to worsening climate hazards.

Russell Vought, director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, made the surprise announcement in a Tuesday evening post on X.

“This facility is one of the largest sources of climate alarmism in the country,” Vought wrote. “A comprehensive review is underway & any vital activities such as weather research will be moved to another entity or location.”

The news sent shock waves through the scientific community. The center’s work is used by governments, universities, emergency planners and the private sector for forecasts and disaster response planning. Its sophisticated Community Earth System Model underpins international climate assessments and much of U.S. policy. The federally funded research center employs about 830 staff members, making it one of the largest consortia of scientists who study weather, climate and Earth systems using advanced models and supercomputers in the world.

“The Trump administration has put a bull’s-eye on one of the United States’ premier weather and climate research and modeling centers, threatening to destroy decades of public investment,” said Carlos Martinez, a former researcher at the center, now a senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “Deliberately dismantling an institution so central to weather forecasting and climate change prediction would not only undermine scientific research, it would leave people across the nation less prepared for the dangers of a warming world.”

A senior White House official confirmed the plan to The Times, saying the National Science Foundation, which funds the center, will be breaking up the facility to “eliminate Green New Scam research activities.” As the largest federal research program on climate change, the center serves as the “premier research stronghold for left-wing climate lunacy,” the official said.

Officials with the National Science Foundation on Wednesday said the agency is “reviewing the structure of the research and observational capabilities” at the center, and is exploring options to transfer stewardship of its Wyoming Supercomputing Center to “an appropriate operator.” The agency also is looking to divest two aircraft managed by the center and to “redefine the scope” of modeling and forecasting research and operations.

“NSF remains committed to providing world-class infrastructure for weather modeling, space weather research and forecasting and other critical functions,” the agency said. “To do so, NSF will be engaging with partner agencies, the research community, and other interested parties to solicit feedback for rescoping the functions of the work currently performed by NCAR.”

Although the White House official characterized the center’s work as “climate lunacy,” changes in the climate are coming faster than many scientists predicted. The basic science of climate change has been well-established through decades of research.

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, said it is hard to overstate the importance of the center. “There is no other institution like NCAR — not just in this country but really anywhere else in the world,” Swain said during a briefing Wednesday morning. He feared that no other global institution can absorb the entirety of its expertise.

Swain also described the administration’s decision as “nakedly politically partisan” in a manner that does not align with public interest. The center’s predictions “aren’t just helpful or convenient — they are life-saving and economy-saving,” he said, adding that shuttering the facility would be “an unbelievable, really genuinely shocking self-inflicted wound to American competitiveness.”

Indeed, the loss of the facility would leave millions of people vulnerable to worsening climate hazards such as wildfires, hurricanes, tropical cyclones and winter storms, Swain and other experts said. Its Wyoming Supercomputing Center provides massive computational resources to national and international scientists for running complex weather and climate models and simulations.

In California, many universities and state agencies use data and modeling from the center for air pollution monitoring, managing water, emergency planning and wildfire risk assessment, among many other uses.

Data and tools from the center also are used directly and indirectly by the private sector.

For instance, the center provides large amounts of atmospheric data, via the Climate Data Guide and Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Numerical Simulation, that researchers, insurance companies and even AI data scientists can access and use to train models, gauge risk and make forecasts.

The aviation, energy and private weather forecasting industries all rely on data and tools developed by the center, including a technology product known as BoltAlert, which is used to predict lightning strikes, and the Maintenance Decision Support System, which alerts snowplow and truck fleets about road conditions.

The $700-billion reinsurance industry also relies on the center’s data, tools and climate models to create financial instruments, such as catastrophe bonds, that are directly tied to weather or natural disaster risks. Such vehicles are dependent upon thorough and precise past data, as well as climate models for forecasting potential risk.

For instance, the reinsurance giant SwissRe credits the work of the center in the development of its proprietary forecasting tool known as the CatNet. In a press statement about the product, the company said its catastrophe experts partnered with the center to create globally validated hail predictions.

Franklin Nutter, spokesman and former president of the Reinsurance Assn. of America — a reinsurance trade group — said his understanding is that NCAR will be broken up and directed to focus on “weather.”

“It is unclear what this means for climate research,” Nutter said in an email. “NCAR has been the world’s leading research hub” in part because of its super computing capabilities, which allow it to analyze weather over time, i.e. the climate.

He said a recent study of 40 years of Midwest hail patterns show that patterns have changed — in frequency, severity and geography. The insurance sector and local and state governments use this information to assess changing risk patterns. He said the center also has “studied the dynamics of wildfires to understand development patterns and intensity.”

The center also provides real time weather data which the insurance, reinsurance and investment sector uses to determine whether a catastrophe bond gets paid out.

“Perhaps most importantly, NCAR is needed to bring together the critical resources [super computing and talent] to provide research and weather-related innovation that provides federal, state and local governments with insights about preparedness and response,” he said, noting that the center’s funding comes from not just the National Science Foundation but also the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy and the Federal Aviation Administration.

“Maintaining the U.S. leadership role, developing talent in the natural sciences and innovation has been a hallmark of NCAR,” he said. His trade group “believes it should be maintained and additional resources provided to it.”

The decision to close the facility follows other efforts from the Trump administration to shut down scientific research and change the public view of climate change. That includes laying off hundreds of staffers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric administration and slashing funding for its scientific research arm. The Trump administration also fired hundreds of scientists working to prepare the congressionally mandated National Climate Assessment and removed the website that housed previous assessments.

The announcement came as a surprise to Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, who said in a statement shortly after Vought’s announcement that the state had “yet to receive information” about the plan.

“If true, public safety is at risk and science is being attacked,” Polis said. “Climate change is real, but the work of NCAR goes far beyond climate science. NCAR delivers data around severe weather events like fires and floods that help our country save lives and property, and prevent devastation for families. If these cuts move forward, we will lose our competitive advantage against foreign powers and adversaries in the pursuit of scientific discovery.”

When asked why the administration is closing the facility, White House officials pointed to so-called “woke” programs at the center that they said “waste taxpayer funds” and “veer from strong or useful science,” such as its Rising Voices Center aimed at joining Indigenous knowledge and Earth science, and an art series that explored the human relationship with water.

They also cited the center’s research into wind turbines that sought to better understand the impact of weather conditions on offshore wind production. Trump has been vocal about his opposition to offshore wind and other forms of renewable energy.