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Tag: Natural Gas Extraction

  • Three Oil Stocks Exposed to Natural-Gas Plunge

    Three Oil Stocks Exposed to Natural-Gas Plunge

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    Natural-gas prices have tumbled this year because of warm weather and high levels of gas in storage in Europe and elsewhere. U.S. prices are down 45% to $2.46 per million British thermal units.

    The drop has impacted stocks of some natural-gas producers, though not nearly as much as the price of the commodity itself. As natural-gas prices stay low, however, the impact could widen and pressure a larger group of companies. Stocks of oil producers that also produce significant amounts of gas are vulnerable to the decline, too. Overall, free cash flow for large-cap producers could fall 33% from 2022 levels, according to Citi analyst Scott Gruber. That could keep some oil companies from being able to boost their dividends and buybacks as much as they did last year.

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  • These 20 stocks were the biggest winners of 2022

    These 20 stocks were the biggest winners of 2022

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    Even during a year in which the S&P 500 index declined 19%, with 72% of its stocks in the red, there were plenty of winners.

    Before showing you the list of the best performers in the benchmark index, let’s look at a preview: Here’s how the 11 sectors of the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.25%

    performed for the year:

    Index

    2022 price change

    Forward P/E

    Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021

    Energy

    59.0%

    9.7

    11.1

    Utilities

    -1.4%

    18.9

    20.4

    Consumer Staples

    -3.2%

    21.0

    21.8

    Health Care

    -3.6%

    17.6

    17.2

    Industrials

    -7.1%

    18.3

    20.8

    Financials

    -12.4%

    11.9

    14.6

    Materials

    -14.1%

    15.8

    16.6

    Real Estate

    -28.4%

    16.5

    24.2

    Information Technology

    -28.9%

    20.1

    28.1

    Consumer Discretionary

    -37.6%

    21.3

    33.2

    Communication Services

    -40.4%

    14.3

    20.8

    S&P 500

    -19.4%

    16.8

    21.4

    Source: FactSet

    Maybe you aren’t surprised to see that the energy sector was the only one to increase during 2022. But it might surprise you to see that despite the sector’s weighted price increase of 59%, its forward price-to-earnings ratio declined and remains very low relative to all other sectors.

    It might also surprise you that West Texas Intermediate crude oil
    CL.1,
    +2.69%

    gave up most of its gains from earlier in the year:


    FactSet

    The reason investors are still confident in energy stocks is that oil producers have remained cautious when it comes to capital spending. They don’t want to increase supply enough to cause prices to crash, as they did in the run-up to the summer of 2014, after which prices fell steadily through early 2016, causing bankruptcies and consolidation in the industry.

    Now the oil companies are focusing on maintaining supply, raising dividends and buying back shares, as Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s
    OXY,
    +1.14%

    chief executive explained in a recent interview with Matt Peterson. Click here for more about Occidental and the long-term supply/demand outlook for oil.

    Best-performing S&P 500 stocks of 2022

    Here are the 20 stocks in the benchmark index that rose most during 2022, excluding dividends. Proving that there are always exceptions, not all of them are in the energy sector.

    Company

    Ticker

    Sector

    Industry

    2022 price change

    Occidental Petroleum Corp.

    OXY,
    +1.14%
    Energy

    Oil & Gas Production

    117.3%

    Hess Corp.

    HES,
    +0.68%
    Energy

    Oil & Gas Production

    91.6%

    Marathon Petroleum Corp.

    MPC,
    +0.18%
    Energy

    Oil Refining/ Marketing

    81.9%

    Exxon Mobil Corp.

    XOM,
    +1.01%
    Energy

    Integrated Oil

    80.3%

    Schlumberger Ltd.

    SLB,
    +1.04%
    Energy

    Contract Drilling

    78.5%

    APA Corp.

    APA,
    +1.68%
    Energy

    Integrated Oil

    73.6%

    Halliburton Co.

    HAL,
    +1.23%
    Energy

    Oil & Gas Production

    72.1%

    First Solar Inc.

    FSLR,
    +0.68%
    Information Technology

    Semiconductors

    71.9%

    Valero Energy Corp.

    VLO,
    +0.43%
    Energy

    Oil Refining/ Marketing

    68.9%

    Marathon Oil Corp.

    MRO,
    +1.08%
    Energy

    Oil & Gas Production

    64.9%

    ConocoPhillips

    COP,
    +1.38%
    Energy

    Oil & Gas Production

    63.5%

    Steel Dynamics Inc.

    STLD,
    -0.72%
    Materials

    Steel

    57.4%

    EQT Corp.

    EQT,
    -0.12%
    Energy

    Oil & Gas Production

    55.1%

    Chevron Corp.

    CVX,
    +0.66%
    Energy

    Integrated Oil

    53.0%

    McKesson Corp.

    MCK,
    Health Care

    Medical Distributors

    50.9%

    Cardinal Health Inc.

    CAH,
    -0.46%
    Health Care

    Medical Distributors

    49.3%

    EOG Resources Inc.

    EOG,
    +0.69%
    Energy

    Oil & Gas Production

    45.8%

    Enphase Energy Inc.

    ENPH,
    -0.20%
    Information Technology

    Semiconductors

    44.8%

    Merck & Co. Inc.

    MRK,
    +0.12%
    Health Care

    Pharmaceuticals

    44.8%

    Cigna Corp.

    CI,
    +0.19%
    Health Care

    Managed Health Care

    44.3%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more information about the companies.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Don’t Miss: These 20 stocks were the biggest losers of 2022

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  • These 20 energy stocks are worth a look if you think oil prices will soar in 2023

    These 20 energy stocks are worth a look if you think oil prices will soar in 2023

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    Harris Kupperman, the president of Praetorian Capital, made a couple of interesting calls heading into 2022. He predicted that stocks of the giant tech-oriented companies that led the bull market would be sold off, and that oil prices would continue to rise through the end of 2022.

    The first prediction came true, while the second one for oil prices fizzled. After rising to $130 in March, oil prices have fallen back to where they started the year. Then again, that second prediction still could have made you a lot of money because the share prices of oil companies kept rising anyway.

    That leads to a new prediction for 2023 and a related stock screen below.

    Here’s a chart showing the movement of front-month contract prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil
    CL.1,
    -0.62%

    since the end of 2021:


    FactSet

    Even though Kupperman didn’t get his oil price call right, the energy sector of the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.20%

    was up 60% for 2022 through Dec. 27, excluding dividends. That is the only one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to show a gain in 2022. And the energy sector is also cheapest relative to earnings expectations, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8, compared with 16.7 for the full S&P 500.

    WTI pulled back from its momentary peak at $130.50 in early March, but that didn’t reverse the long-term trend of low capital spending by oil and natural gas producers, which has given investors confidence that supplies will remain tight.

    Vicki Hollub, the CEO of Occidental Petroleum Corp.
    OXY,
    -3.50%

    the best-performing S&P 500 stock of 2022 — said during a recent interview that there was “no pressure to increase production right now,” citing a $40 per barrel break-even point for oil prices.

    Kupperman now expects strong demand and low supplies to push oil as high as $200 a barrel in 2023.

    At the end of November, these 20 oil companies stood out as reasonable plays for 2023 based on expectations for free-cash-flow generation and dividend payments.

    For this next screen, we are only looking at ratings and consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet.

    There are 23 energy stocks in the S&P 500, and you can invest in that group easily by purchasing shares of the Energy Select SPDR ETF
    XLE,
    -2.24%
    .
    We can expand the list of large-cap names by looking at the components of the iShares Global Energy ETF
    IXC,
    -1.91%
    ,
    which holds all the energy stocks in the S&P 500 plus large players based outside the U.S.

    The top five holdings of IXC are:

    Company

    Ticker

    Country

    % of portfolio

    Share “buy” ratings

    Dec. 27 price

    Price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Exxon Mobil Corp.

    XOM,
    -1.64%
    U.S.

    16.4%

    54%

    110.19

    118.89

    7.89%

    Chevron Corp.

    CVX,
    -1.48%
    U.S.

    11.5%

    54%

    179.63

    190.52

    6.06%

    Shell PLC

    SHEL,
    -0.70%
    U.K.

    7.8%

    83%

    23.67

    29.82

    25.99%

    TotalEnergies SE

    TTE,
    -1.40%
    France

    5.6%

    62%

    59.63

    64.40

    8.00%

    ConocoPhillips

    COP,
    -2.67%
    U.K.

    5.4%

    83%

    118.47

    140.84

    18.88%

    Source: FactSet

    Prices on the tables in this article are in local currencies.

    IXC holds 51 stocks. To expand the list for a stock screen, we added the energy stocks in the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
    MID,
    -1.24%

    and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
    SML,
    -1.89%

    to bring the list up to 91 companies, which we then pared to 83 covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.

    Here are the 20 companies in the list with at least 75% “buy” or equivalent ratings that have the most upside potential over the next 12 months, based on consensus price targets:

    Company

    Ticker

    Country

    Share “buy” ratings

    Dec. 27 price

    Price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    EQT Corp.

    EQT,
    -7.82%
    U.S.

    83%

    36.34

    59.14

    63%

    Green Plains Inc.

    GPRE,
    -2.72%
    U.S.

    80%

    29.80

    43.40

    46%

    Cameco Corp.

    CCO,
    +0.33%
    Canada

    100%

    30.48

    44.25

    45%

    Talos Energy Inc.

    TALO,
    -8.40%
    U.S.

    86%

    19.77

    28.67

    45%

    Ranger Oil Corp. Class A

    ROCC,
    -6.22%
    U.S.

    100%

    41.33

    58.00

    40%

    Tourmaline Oil Corp.

    TOU,
    -4.92%
    Canada

    100%

    71.40

    98.83

    38%

    Civitas Resources Inc.

    CIVI,
    -4.06%
    U.S.

    100%

    58.82

    80.83

    37%

    Inpex Corp.

    1605,
    -2.08%
    Japan

    88%

    1,477.00

    1,965.56

    33%

    Diamondback Energy Inc.

    FANG,
    -2.26%
    U.S.

    84%

    137.58

    181.90

    32%

    Santos Limited

    STO,
    -3.12%
    Australia

    100%

    7.20

    9.26

    29%

    Matador Resources Co.

    MTDR,
    -3.98%
    U.S.

    79%

    57.59

    73.75

    28%

    Targa Resources Corp.

    TRGP,
    -2.63%
    U.S.

    95%

    73.89

    94.05

    27%

    Cenovus Energy Inc.

    CVE,
    -2.55%
    Canada

    84%

    26.24

    33.22

    27%

    Shell PLC

    SHEL,
    -0.70%
    U.K.

    83%

    23.67

    29.82

    26%

    Ampol Limited

    ALD,
    -2.89%
    Australia

    85%

    28.29

    35.01

    24%

    EOG Resources Inc.

    EOG,
    -3.54%
    U.S.

    79%

    132.08

    157.52

    19%

    ConocoPhillips

    COP,
    -2.67%
    U.S.

    83%

    118.47

    140.84

    19%

    Repsol SA

    REP,
    -0.66%
    Spain

    75%

    15.05

    17.88

    19%

    Halliburton Co.

    HAL,
    -3.03%
    U.S.

    86%

    39.27

    45.95

    17%

    Marathon Petroleum Corp.

    MPC,
    -1.97%
    U.S.

    76%

    116.82

    132.56

    13%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more information about the companies.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

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  • U.K. fracking stocks slump after Sunak reinstates ban

    U.K. fracking stocks slump after Sunak reinstates ban

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    Shares in London-listed fracking companies slumped on Wednesday after new U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he would stick by his party’s manifesto pledge to ban the shale gas extraction process in Britain.

    IGas Energy stock
    IGAS,
    -27.66%

    dropped 28% and the equity of Egdon Resources
    EDR,
    -18.21%

    slumped 11%. The shares of AJ Lucas
    AJL,
    +2.99%
    ,
    which owns nearly 50% of U.K. fracker Cuadrilla, are quoted on the Australian stock exchange, which was closed.

    The fracking sector is tiny in the U.K. — the two U.K.-quoted companies have a combined valuation of less than £60 million — with few suitable sites for the process to be viable.

    But the industry’s practices are highly controversial, with campaigners arguing it causes small earth tremors, pollutes water tables and is not compatible with lower carbon production targets.

    The shares of IGas Energy had jumped around ninefold since the start of the year, getting an extra recent boost from previous Prime Minister Liz Truss’s decision to go against the Conservative Party’s wishes and allow fracking.

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  • These 27 stocks can give you a more diversified portfolio than the S&P 500 — and that’s a key advantage right now

    These 27 stocks can give you a more diversified portfolio than the S&P 500 — and that’s a key advantage right now

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    You probably already know that because of market-capitalization weighting, a broad index such as the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.67%

    can be concentrated in a handful of stocks. Index funds are popular for good reasons — they tend to have low expenses and it is difficult for active managers to outperform them over the long term.

    For example, look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    -0.71%
    ,
    which tracks the S&P 500 by holding all of its stocks by the same weighting as the index. Five stocks — Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.08%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    -0.85%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -1.11%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    -1.08%

    GOOGL,
    -1.13%

    and Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.84%
    ,
    make up 21.5% of the portfolio.

    But there are other considerations when it comes to diversification — namely, factors. During an interview, Scott Weber of Vaughan Nelson Investment Management in Houston explained how groups of stock and commodities can move together, adding to a lack of diversification in a typical portfolio or index fund.

    Weber co-manages the $293 million Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select Fund
    VNSAX,
    -0.96%
    ,
    which carries a five-star rating (the highest) from investment-researcher Morningstar, and has outperformed its benchmark, the S&P 500.

    Vaughan Nelson is a Houston-based affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, with about $13 billion in assets under management, including $5 billion managed under the same strategy as the fund, including the Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select ETF
    VNSE,
    -0.87%
    .
    The ETF was established in Sept, 2020, so does not yet have a Morningstar rating.

    Factoring-in the factors

    Weber explained how he and colleagues incorporate 35 factors into their portfolio selection process. For example, a fund might hold shares of real-estate investment trusts (REITs), financial companies and energy producers. These companies are in different sectors, as defined by Standard & Poor’s. Yet their performance may be correlated.

    Weber pointed out that REITs, for example, were broken out of the financial sector to become their own sector in 2016. “Did that make REIT’s more sensitive to interest rates? The answer is no,” he said. “The S&P sector buckets are somewhat  better than arbitrary, but they are not perfect.”

    Of course 2022 is something of an exception, with so many assets dropping in price at the same time. But over the long term, factor analysis can identify correlations and lead money managers to limit their investments in companies, sectors or industries whose prices tend to move together. This style has helped the Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select Fund outperform against its benchmark, Weber said.

    Getting back to the five largest components of the S&P 500, they are all tech-oriented, even though only two, Apple and Microsoft, are in the information technology sector, while Alphabet is in the communications sector and Tesla is in the consumer discretionary sector. “Regardless of the sectors,” they tend to move together, Weber said.

    Exposure to commodity prices, timing of revenue streams through economic cycles (which also incorporates currency exposure), inflation and many other items are additional factors that Weber and his colleagues incorporate into their broad allocation strategy and individual stock selections.

    For example, you might ordinarily expect inflation, real estate and gold to move together, Weber said. But as we are seeing this year, with high inflation and rising interest rates, there is downward pressure on real-estate prices, while gold prices
    GC00,
    -0.01%

    have declined 10% this year.

    Digging further, the factors also encompass sensitivity of investments to U.S. and other countries’ government bonds of various maturities, credit spreads between corporate and government bonds in developed countries, exchange rates, and measures of liquidity, price volatility and momentum.

    Stock selection

    The largest holding of the Select fund is NextEra Energy Inc.
    NEE,
    -1.89%
    ,
    which owns FPL, Florida’s largest electric utility. FPL is phasing-out coal plants and replacing power-generating capacity with natural gas as well as wind and solar facilities.

    Weber said: “There’s not a company on the planet that is better at getting alternate (meaning solar and wind) generation deployed. But because they own FPL, some of my investors say it is one of the largest carbon emitters on the planet.”

    He added that “as a consequence of their skill in operating, they re generating amazing returns for investors.” NextEra’s share shave returned 446% over the past 10 years. One practice that has helped to elevate the company’s return on equity, and presumably its stock price, has been “dropping assets down” into NextEra Energy Partners LP
    NEP,
    -2.61%
    ,
    which NEE manages, Weber said. He added that the assets put into the partnership tend to be “great at cash-flow generation, but not on achieving growth.”

    When asked for more examples of stocks in the fund that may provide excellent long-term returns, Weber mentioned Monolithic Power Systems Inc.
    MPWR,
    -0.24%
    ,
    as a way to take advantage of the broad decline in semiconductor stocks this year. (The iShares Semiconductor ETF
    SOXX,
    +0.64%

    has declined 21% this year, while industry stalwarts Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +0.70%

    and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.19%

    are down 59% and 60%, respectively.)

    He said Monolithic Power has been consistently making investments that improve its return on invested capital (ROIC). A company’s ROIC is its profit divided by the sum of the carrying value of stock it has issued over the years and its current debt. It doesn’t reflect the stock price and is considered a good measure of a management team’s success at making investment decisions and managing projects. Monolithic Power’s ROICC for 2021 was 21.8%, according to FactSet, rising from 13.2% five years earlier.

    “We want to see a business generating a return on capital in excess of its cost of capital. In addition, they need to invest their capital at incrementally improving returns,” Weber said.

    Another example Weber gave of a stock held by the fund is Dollar General Corp.
    DG,
    +0.33%
    ,
    which he called a much better operator than rival Dollar Tree Inc.
    DLTR,
    +0.14%
    ,
    which owns Family Dollar. He cited DG’s roll-out of frozen-food and fresh food offerings, as well as its growth runway: “They still have 8,000 or 9,000 stores to build-out” in the U.S., he said.

    Fund holdings

    In order to provide a full current list of stocks held under Weber’s strategy, here are the 27 stocks held by the the Natixis Vaughan Select ETF as of Sept. 30. The largest 10 positions made up 49% of the portfolio:

    Company

    Ticker

    % of portfolio

    NextEra Energy Inc.

    NEE,
    -1.89%
    5.74%

    Dollar General Corp.

    DG,
    +0.33%
    5.51%

    Danaher Corp.

    DHR,
    -2.89%
    4.93%

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    -0.85%
    4.91%

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    -1.11%
    4.90%

    Sherwin-Williams Co.

    SHW,
    -2.53%
    4.80%

    Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

    WPM,
    -2.28%
    4.76%

    Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

    ICE,
    -1.16%
    4.52%

    McCormick & Co.

    MKC,
    +0.11%
    4.48%

    Clorox Co.

    CLX,
    +1.27%
    4.39%

    Aon PLC Class A

    AON,
    +0.21%
    4.33%

    Jack Henry & Associates Inc.

    JKHY,
    -0.97%
    4.08%

    Motorola Solutions Inc.

    MSI,
    -0.64%
    4.08%

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    VRTX,
    -2.72%
    4.01%

    Union Pacific Corp.

    UNP,
    -0.78%
    3.99%

    Alphabet Inc. Class A

    GOOGL,
    -1.13%
    3.03%

    Johnson & Johnson

    JNJ,
    -0.80%
    2.98%

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +0.70%
    2.92%

    Cogent Communications Holdings Inc.

    CCOI,
    -2.10%
    2.81%

    Kosmos Energy Ltd.

    KOS,
    +5.62%
    2.68%

    VeriSign Inc.

    VRSN,
    -0.43%
    2.15%

    Chemed Corp.

    CHE,
    -0.73%
    2.06%

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

    BRK.B,
    -1.18%
    2.00%

    Saia Inc.

    SAIA,
    -4.36%
    1.97%

    Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

    MPWR,
    -0.24%
    1.96%

    Entegris Inc.

    ENTG,
    -0.17%
    1.93%

    Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A

    LAZR,
    -6.90%
    0.96%

    Source: Natixis Funds

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for a detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch.com quote page.

    Fund performance

    The Natixis Vaughan Select Fund was established on June 29, 2012. Here’s a 10-year chart showing the total return of the fund’s Class A shares against that of the S&P 500, with dividends reinvested. Sales charges are excluded from the chart and the performance numbers. In the current environment for mutual-fund distribution, sales charges are often waived for purchases of new shares through investment advisers.


    FactSet

    Here’s a comparison of returns for 2022 and average annual returns for various periods of the fund’s Class A shares to that of the S&P 500 and its Morningstar fund category through Oct. 18:

     

    Total return – 2022 through Oct. 18

    Average return – 3 Years

    Average return – 5 Years

    Average return – 10 years

    Vaughan Nelson Select Find – Class A

    -20.2%

    11.8%

    10.8%

    13.0%

    S&P 500

    -21.0%

    9.4%

    9.7%

    12.0%

    Morningstar Large Blend category

    -20.3%

    8.1%

    8.2%

    10.7%

    Sources: Morningstar, FactSet

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