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Tag: National/Presidential Elections

  • Trump is backed further into a financial corner after losing control of his company

    Trump is backed further into a financial corner after losing control of his company

    With Donald Trump’s legal liabilities growing and a presidential campaign to run, losing control of his company couldn’t have come at a worse time.

    After a New York judge ordered the Trump Organization to pay $364 million in penalties and barred the former president from any role in running a business in New York state for three years, Trump now finds himself backed further into a financial corner with fewer options for how to maneuver.

    “It will have such an enormous impact on the operation of his business,” said Randy Zelin, a professor of law at Cornell University and a veteran criminal defense attorney with experience in complex financial matters. “But it will also provide a strong basis for an appeal.”  

    New York Attorney General Letitia James had asked New York State Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron to levy a $370 million financial penalty against the Trump Organization and also to ban Trump and his children Ivanka, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump from running any company in the state of New York, where his real-estate empire has long been based.

    Engoron’s ruling barred Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump from being involved in running any business in the state for two years. The judge also ordered that former U.S. District Court Judge Barbara Jones, who has been serving as an independent monitor of the Trump Organization since 2022, continue in that role with expanded powers for the next three years. The ruling also ordered that an independent compliance officer be appointed within 30 days.

    “The Trump Organization shall be required to obtain prior approval — not, as things are now, subsequent review — from Judge Jones before submitting any financial disclosure to a third party, so that such disclosure may be reviewed beforehand for material misrepresentations,” the ruling read. 

    The outcome of the civil trial sat solely in Engoron’s hands, and in September, he issued a summary judgment essentially ruling in favor of James’s arguments that the Trump Organization had engaged in fraud for years by repeatedly misstating the value of assets to lenders and insurance companies. 

    The judgment is the latest in a string of legal and financial blows that the former president has faced and that have already had an impact on his presidential campaign.

    Trump has incurred $76 million in legal costs over the past two years stemming from the wide array of criminal and civil prosecutions he faces. More than $27 million of the money raised in the last six months of 2023 to support his presidential campaign has instead been used to cover his legal costs, according to campaign-finance filings.

    A report by Bloomberg earlier this week suggested that Trump may face a cash crunch caused by his ballooning legal costs as early as this summer, just as the presidential race will be heating up.

    Last month, a federal jury ordered Trump to pay $83.3 million in damages for defaming the writer E. Jean Carroll, whom he had attacked online after she had accused him of raping her in a department-store dressing room in the 1990s. He had earlier been hit with a $5 million verdict in a state case on similar charges.

    Trump has vowed to appeal the verdicts and denied raping Carroll, but in order to appeal, he will be required to put up bonds for the full award amounts. That means he would need to either get a bank to back him or to pledge collateral — like a real estate asset — to secure the bond.

    But without full control of his real-estate empire, Trump will likely find it harder to line up financing or use his assets as freely as before. 

    Under the terms of Engoron’s ruling, Trump will no longer be able to make any moves involving assets held by the Trump Organization without the approval of the court-appointed monitor.

    Even pledging his assets as collateral for the bond that he would be required to post in order to file an appeal would be complicated by the imposition of a monitor. 

     “When you lose control of your company, you lose control of who is going to be paid and how much they will be paid. All the money will, first and foremost, be used to operate the business, and how much goes to Trump and his children becomes a secondary concern,” Zelin said.

    Add to that the mounting legal costs for multiple criminal cases being brought against him — on charges related to Jan. 6 as well as charges of mishandling classified documents, election fraud, racketeering and illegally paying hush money to women who claimed they’d had affairs with him — and Trump finds himself in a worsening financial bind.

    So far, the former president has managed to cover many of his legal costs through donations from his political supporters, but that means that money won’t be available to fund his campaign for president. At the end of the year, President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign had about $46 million cash on hand, while Trump’s campaign had $33 million, Federal Election Commission filings show. Some $50 million held by Trump’s political action committees has already been used to cover his legal bills. 

    Regarding the properties held by the Trump Organization, while Trump has been able to refinance many of the loans underlying his bigger real-estate holdings, pushing their maturity dates back several years, he still has a stake in some high-profile buildings that have debt coming due in the next few years.

    With the court-appointed monitor part of the equation, it might now be more difficult for Trump to secure new debt in order to refinance those buildings, and that could even technically trigger defaults, depending on how the loan covenants were written.

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  • Supreme Court to decide if Trump can be kept off 2024 election ballots

    Supreme Court to decide if Trump can be kept off 2024 election ballots

    WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court said Friday it will decide whether former President Donald Trump can be kept off the ballot because of his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, inserting the court squarely in the 2024 presidential campaign.

    The justices acknowledged the need to reach a decision quickly, as voters will soon begin casting presidential-primary ballots across the country. The court agreed to take up a case from Colorado stemming from Trump’s role in the events that culminated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

    Arguments will be held in early February.

    The court will be considering for the first time the meaning and reach of a provision of the 14th Amendment barring some people who “engaged in insurrection” from holding public office. The amendment was adopted in 1868, following the Civil War. It has been so rarely used that the nation’s highest court had no previous occasion to interpret it.

    Colorado’s Supreme Court, by a 4-3 vote, ruled last month that Trump should not be on the Republican primary ballot. The decision was the first time the 14th Amendment was used to bar a presidential contender from the ballot.

    Trump is separately appealing to state court a ruling by Maine’s Democratic secretary of state, Shenna Bellows, that he was ineligible to appear on that state’s ballot over his role in the Capitol attack. Both the Colorado Supreme Court and the Maine secretary of state’s rulings are on hold until the appeals play out.

    Three of the nine Supreme Court justices were appointed by Trump, though they have repeatedly ruled against him in 2020 election-related lawsuits, as well as his efforts to keep documents related to Jan. 6 and prevent his tax returns from being turned over to congressional committees.

    At the same time, Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh have been in the majority of conservative-driven decisions that overturned the five-decade-old constitutional right to abortion, expanded gun rights and struck down affirmative action in college admissions.

    Some Democratic lawmakers have called on another conservative justice, Clarence Thomas, to step aside from the case because of his wife’s support for Trump’s effort to overturn the results of the election, which he lost to Democrat Joe Biden. Thomas is unlikely to agree. He has recused himself from only one other case related to the 2020 election, involving former law clerk John Eastman, and so far the people trying to disqualify Trump haven’t asked Thomas to recuse.

    The 4-3 Colorado decision cites a ruling by Gorsuch when he was a federal judge in that state. That Gorsuch decision upheld Colorado’s move to strike a naturalized citizen from the state’s presidential ballot because he was born in Guyana and didn’t meet the constitutional requirements to run for office. The court found that Trump likewise doesn’t meet the qualifications due to his role in the U.S. Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021. That day, the Republican president had held a rally outside the White House and exhorted his supporters to “fight like hell” before they walked to the Capitol.

    The two-sentence provision in Section 3 of the 14th Amendment states that anyone who swore an oath to uphold the constitution and then “engaged in insurrection” against it is no longer eligible for state or federal office. After Congress passed an amnesty for most of the former confederates the measure targeted in 1872, the provision fell into disuse until dozens of suits were filed to keep Trump off the ballot this year. Only the one in Colorado was successful.

    Trump had asked the court to overturn the Colorado ruling without even hearing arguments. “The Colorado Supreme Court decision would unconstitutionally disenfranchise millions of voters in Colorado and likely be used as a template to disenfranchise tens of millions of voters nationwide,” Trump’s lawyers wrote.

    They argue that Trump should win on many grounds, including that the events of Jan. 6 did not constitute an insurrection. Even if it did, they wrote, Trump himself had not engaged in insurrection. They also contend that the insurrection clause does not apply to the president and that Congress must act, not individual states.

    Critics of the former president who sued in Colorado agreed that the justices should step in now and resolve the issue, as do many election law experts.

    “This case is of utmost national importance. And given the upcoming presidential-primary schedule, there is no time to wait for the issues to percolate further. The Court should resolve this case on an expedited timetable, so that voters in Colorado and elsewhere will know whether Trump is indeed constitutionally ineligible when they cast their primary ballots,” lawyers for the Colorado plaintiffs told the Supreme Court.

    The issue of whether Trump can be on the ballot is not the only matter related to the former president or Jan. 6 that has reached the high court. The justices last month declined a request from special counsel Jack Smith to swiftly take up and rule on Trump’s claims that he is immune from prosecution in a case charging him with plotting to overturn the 2020 presidential election, though the issue could be back before the court soon depending on the ruling of a Washington-based appeals court.

    And the court has said that it intends to hear an appeal that could upend hundreds of charges stemming from the Capitol riot, including against Trump.

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  • When Colorado removed Trump from the ballot, a Supreme Court showdown looked likely. Maine removed all doubt.

    When Colorado removed Trump from the ballot, a Supreme Court showdown looked likely. Maine removed all doubt.

    DENVER (AP) — First, Colorado’s Supreme Court ruled that former President Donald Trump wasn’t eligible to run for his old job in that state. Then, Maine’s secretary of state ruled the same for her state.

    Both decisions are historic. The Colorado court was the first court to apply to a presidential candidate a rarely used constitutional ban against those who “engaged in insurrection.” Maine’s secretary of state was the first top election official to unilaterally strike a presidential candidate from the ballot under that provision.

    What’s next? Can Trump be put back on the ballot?

    Both decisions are on hold while the legal process plays out. That means that Trump remains on the ballot in Colorado and Maine and that his political fate is now in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court.

    The Maine ruling will likely never take effect on its own. Its central impact is increasing pressure on the nation’s highest court to state clearly whether Trump remains eligible to run for president after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

    What’s the legal issue that could keep Trump off the ballot?

    After the Civil War, the U.S. ratified the 14th Amendment to guarantee rights to former slaves and more. It also included a two-sentence clause called Section 3, designed to keep former Confederates from regaining government power after the war.

    “Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution doesn’t require a criminal conviction to take effect.”

    The measure reads: “No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”

    Congress did remove that disability from most Confederates in 1872, and the provision fell into disuse. But it was rediscovered after Jan. 6.

    See: Nikki Haley was asked by N.H. voter to name Civil War cause. Slavery was absent from her answer.

    How does this apply to former president Trump exactly?

    Trump is already being prosecuted for the attempt to overturn his 2020 loss that culminated with Jan. 6, but Section 3 doesn’t require a criminal conviction to take effect. Dozens of lawsuits have been filed to disqualify Trump, claiming he engaged in insurrection on Jan. 6 and is no longer qualified to run for office.

    All the suits failed until the Colorado ruling. And dozens of secretaries of state have been asked to remove him from the ballot. All said they didn’t have the authority to do so without a court order — until Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows’s decision.

    See: As Colorado court bars Trump from ballot, poll finds 62% of GOP voters would want him as nominee even with more legal woes

    Also: Police investigating ‘incidents’ against Colorado justices after Trump removed from state’s ballot

    The Supreme Court has never ruled on Section 3. It’s likely to do so in considering appeals of the Colorado decision — the state Republican Party has already appealed, and Trump is expected to file his own shortly.

    Bellows’s ruling cannot be appealed straight to the U.S. Supreme Court — it has to be appealed up the judicial chain first, starting with a trial court in Maine.

    The Maine decision does force the high court’s hand, though. It was already highly likely the justices would hear the Colorado case, but Maine removes any doubt.

    Trump lost Colorado in 2020, and he doesn’t need to win it again to garner an Electoral College majority next year. But he won one of Maine’s four Electoral College votes in 2020 by winning the state’s 2nd Congressional District, so Bellows’s decision would have a direct impact on his odds next November.

    Until the high court rules, any state could adopt its own standard on whether Trump, or anyone else, can be on the ballot. That’s the sort of legal chaos the court is supposed to prevent.

    What is Trump’s argument?

    Trump’s lawyers have several arguments against the push to disqualify him. First, it’s not clear Section 3 applies to the president — an early draft mentioned the office, but it was taken out, and the language “an officer of the United States” elsewhere in the Constitution doesn’t mean the president, they contend.

    Second, even if it does apply to the presidency, they say, this is a “political” question best decided by voters, not unelected judges. Third, if judges do want to get involved, the lawyers assert, they’re violating Trump’s rights to a fair legal procedure by flatly ruling he’s ineligible without some sort of fact-finding process like a lengthy criminal trial. Fourth, they argue, Jan. 6 wasn’t an insurrection under the meaning of Section 3 — it was more like a riot. Finally, even if it was an insurrection, they say, Trump wasn’t involved in it — he was merely using his free speech rights.

    Of course, the lawyers who want to disqualify Trump have arguments, too.

    The main one is that the case is actually very simple: Jan. 6 was an insurrection, Trump incited it, and he’s disqualified.

    Why has this process taken so long?

    The attack of Jan. 6, 2021, occurred nearly three years ago, but the challenges weren’t “ripe,” to use the legal term, until Trump petitioned to get onto state ballots this fall.

    But the length of time also gets at another issue — no one has really wanted to rule on the merits of the case. Most judges have dismissed the lawsuits because of technical issues, including that courts don’t have the authority to tell parties whom to put on their primary ballots. Secretaries of state have dodged, too, usually telling those who ask them to ban Trump that they don’t have the authority to do so unless ordered by a court.

    No one can dodge anymore. Legal experts have cautioned that, if the Supreme Court doesn’t clearly resolve the issue, it could lead to chaos in November — or in January 2025, if Trump wins the election. Imagine, they say, if the high court ducks the issue or says it’s not a decision for the courts to make, and Democrats win a narrow majority in Congress. Would they seat Trump or declare he’s ineligible under Section 3?

    Why was this action taken in Maine?

    Maine has an unusual process in which a secretary of state is required to hold a public hearing on challenges to politicians’ spots on the ballot and then issue a ruling. Multiple groups of Maine voters, including a bipartisan clutch of former state lawmakers, filed such a challenge, triggering Bellows’s decision.

    Bellows is a Democrat and the former head of the Maine chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union. Trump’s attorneys asked her to recuse herself from the case, citing social-media posts calling Jan. 6 an “insurrection” and bemoaning Trump’s acquittal in his impeachment trial over the attack.

    She refused, saying she wasn’t ruling based on personal opinions. But the precedent she sets is notable, critics say. In theory, election officials in every state could decide a candidate is ineligible based on a novel legal theory about Section 3 and end their candidacies.

    Conservatives argue that Section 3 could apply to Vice President Kamala Harris, for example — it was used to block from office even those who donated small sums to individual Confederates. Couldn’t it be used against Harris, they say, because she raised money for those arrested in the unrest after the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in 2020?

    Is this a partisan issue?

    Bellows is a Democrat, and all the justices on the Colorado Supreme Court were appointed by Democrats. Six of the 9 U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Republicans, three by Trump himself.

    But courts don’t always split on predictable partisan lines. The Colorado ruling was 4-3 — so three Democratic appointees disagreed with barring Trump. Several prominent legal conservatives have championed the use of Section 3 against the former president.

    Now we’ll see how the high court handles it.

    Read on:

    Trump’s name can appear on ballot in Michigan, says state’s top court

    Georgia election workers sue Rudy Giuliani again, seek to bar him from repeating lies about them

    Trump’s Republican rivals rally to his defense after Colorado ballot ruling

    Supreme Court to hear case that could undermine obstruction charges against hundreds of Jan. 6 defendants

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  • Maine bars Trump from presidential primary ballot, citing insurrection clause

    Maine bars Trump from presidential primary ballot, citing insurrection clause

    PORTLAND, Maine — Maine’s Democratic secretary of state on Thursday removed former President Donald Trump from the state’s presidential primary ballot under the Constitution’s insurrection clause, becoming the first election official to take action unilaterally as the U.S. Supreme Court is poised to decide whether Trump remains eligible to return to the White House.

    The decision by Secretary of State Shenna Bellows follows a ruling earlier this month by the Colorado Supreme Court that booted Trump from the ballot there under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. That decision has been stayed until the U.S. Supreme Court decides whether Trump is barred by the Civil War-era provision, which prohibits those who “engaged in insurrection” from holding office.

    The Trump campaign said it would appeal Bellows’ decision to Maine’s state courts, and Bellows suspended her ruling until that court system rules on the case. In the end, it is likely that the nation’s highest court will have the final say on whether Trump appears on the ballot in Maine and in the other states.

    Bellows found that Trump could no longer run for his prior job because his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol violated Section 3, which bans from office those who “engaged in insurrection.” Bellows made the ruling after some state residents, including a bipartisan group of former lawmakers, challenged Trump’s position on the ballot.

    “I do not reach this conclusion lightly,” Bellows wrote in her 34-page decision. “I am mindful that no Secretary of State has ever deprived a presidential candidate of ballot access based on Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment. I am also mindful, however, that no presidential candidate has ever before engaged in insurrection.”

    The Trump campaign immediately slammed the ruling. “We are witnessing, in real-time, the attempted theft of an election and the disenfranchisement of the American voter,” campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement.

    Legal experts said that Thursday’s ruling demonstrates the need for the nation’s highest court, which has never ruled on Section 3, to clarify what states can do.

    “It is clear that these decisions are going to keep popping up, and inconsistent decisions reached (like the many states keeping Trump on the ballot over challenges) until there is final and decisive guidance from the U.S. Supreme Court,” Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California-Los Angeles, wrote in response to the Maine decision. “It seems a certainty that SCOTUS will have to address the merits sooner or later.”

    While Maine has just four electoral votes, it’s one of two states to split them. Trump won one of Maine’s electors in 2020, so having him off the ballot there, should he emerge as the Republican general election candidate, could have outsized implications in a race that is expected to be narrowly decided.

    That’s in contrast to Colorado, which Trump lost by 13 percentage points in 2020 and where he wasn’t expected to compete in November if he wins the Republican presidential nomination.

    In her decision, Bellows acknowledged that the U.S. Supreme Court will probably have the final word but said it was important she did her official duty.

    That won her praise from the former state lawmakers who filed one of the petitions forcing her to consider the case.

    “Secretary Bellows showed great courage in her ruling, and we look forward to helping her defend her judicious and correct decision in court. No elected official is above the law or our constitution, and today’s ruling reaffirms this most important of American principles,” Republican Kimberly Rosen, independent Thomas Saviello and Democrat Ethan Strimling said in a statement.

    But other Republicans in the state were outraged.

    “This is a sham decision that mimics Third World dictatorships,” Maine’s House Republican leader, Billy Bob Faulkingham, said in a statement. “It will not stand legal scrutiny. People have a right to choose their leaders devoid of mindless decisions by partisan hacks.”

    The Trump campaign on Tuesday requested that Bellows disqualify herself from the case because she’d previously tweeted that Jan. 6 was an “insurrection” and bemoaned that Trump was acquitted in his impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate after the capitol attack. She refused to step aside.

    “My decision was based exclusively on the record presented to me at the hearing and was in no way influenced by my political affiliation or personal views about the events of Jan. 6, 2021,” Bellows told the Associated Press Thursday night.

    Bellows is a former head of the Maine chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union. All seven of the justices of the Colorado Supreme Court, which split 4-3 on whether to become the first court in history to declare a presidential candidate ineligible under Section 3, were appointed by Democrats. Two Washington, D.C.-based liberal groups have launched the most serious prior challenges to Trump, in Colorado and a handful of other states.

    That’s led Trump to contend the dozens of lawsuits nationwide seeking to remove him from the ballot under Section 3 are a Democratic plot to end his campaign. But some of the most prominent advocates have been conservative legal theorists who argue that the text of the Constitution makes the former president ineligible to run again, just as if he failed to clear the document’s age threshold — 35 years old — for the office.

    Likewise, until Bellows’ decision, every top state election official, whether Democrat or Republican, had rejected requests to bar Trump from the ballot, saying they didn’t have the power to remove him unless ordered to do so by a court.

    The timing on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision is unclear, but both sides want it fast. Colorado’s Republican Party appealed the Colorado high court decision on Wednesday, urging an expedited schedule, and Trump is also expected to file an appeal within the week. The petitioners in the Colorado case on Thursday urged the nation’s highest court to adopt an even faster schedule so it could rule before March 5, known as Super Tuesday, when 16 states, including Colorado and Maine, are scheduled to vote in the Republican presidential nominating process.

    The high court needs to formally accept the case first, but legal experts consider that a certainty. The Section 3 cases seem tailor-made for the Supreme Court, addressing an area of U.S. governance where there’s scant judicial guidance.

    The clause was added in 1868 to keep defeated Confederates from returning to their former positions of power in local and federal government. It prohibits anyone who broke an oath to “support” the Constitution from holding office. The provision was used to bar a wide range of ex-Confederates from positions ranging from local sheriff to Congress, but fell into disuse after an 1872 congressional amnesty for most former Confederates.

    Legal historians believe the only time the provision was used in the 20th Century was in 1919, when it was cited to deny a House seat to a socialist who had opposed U.S. involvement in World War I. But since the Jan. 6 attack, it has been revived.

    Last year, it was cited by a court to remove a rural New Mexico County Commissioner who had entered the Capitol on Jan. 6. One liberal group tried to remove Republican Reps. Madison Cawthorn and Marjorie Taylor Greene from the 2022 ballot under the provision, but Cawthorn lost his primary so his case was thrown out, and a judge ruled for Greene.

    Some critics of the movement to bar Trump warn that the provision could be weaponized in unexpected ways.

    They note that conservatives could argue, for example, that Vice President Kamala Harris is likewise barred from office because she raised bail funds for people arrested during the unrest following George Floyd’s 2020 murder at the hands of Minneapolis police.

    The plaintiffs in Colorado presented historical evidence that even the donation of small sums to money to those seeking to join the Confederacy was grounds for being barred by Section 3. Why, critics have asked, wouldn’t that apply to Democrats like Harris today?

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  • Hunter Biden indicted on 9 tax charges, adding to gun charges in special counsel probe

    Hunter Biden indicted on 9 tax charges, adding to gun charges in special counsel probe

    WASHINGTON — Hunter Biden was indicted on nine tax charges in California on Thursday as a special counsel investigation into the business dealings of President Joe Biden’s son intensifies against the backdrop of the looming 2024 election.

    The new charges — three felonies and six misdemeanors — are in addition to federal firearms charges in Delaware alleging Hunter Biden broke laws against drug users having guns in 2018. They come after the implosion of a plea deal over the summer that would have spared him jail time.

    Hunter Biden “spent millions of dollars on an extravagant lifestyle rather than paying his tax bills,” special counsel David Weiss said in a statement. The charges are centered on at least $1.4 million in taxes Hunter Biden owed during between 2016 and 2019, a period where he has acknowledged struggling with addiction. The back taxes have since been paid.

    If convicted, Hunter Biden could face up to 17 years in prison. The special counsel probe remains open, Weiss said.

    In a fiery response, defense attorney Abbe Lowell accused Weiss of “bowing to Republican pressure” in the case.

    “Based on the facts and the law, if Hunter’s last name was anything other than Biden, the charges in Delaware, and now California, would not have been brought,” Lowell said in a statement.

    The White House declined to comment on Thursday’s indictment, referring questions to the Justice Department or Hunter Biden’s personal representatives.

    The charging documents filed in California, where he lives, details spending on everything from drugs and girlfriends to luxury hotels and exotic cars, “in short, everything but his taxes,” prosecutor Leo Wise wrote.

    The indictment comes as congressional Republicans pursue an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, claiming he was engaged in an influence-peddling scheme with his son. The House is expected to vote next week on formally authorizing the inquiry.

    No evidence has emerged so far to prove that Joe Biden, in his current or previous office, abused his role or accepted bribes, though questions have arisen about the ethics surrounding the Biden family’s international business.

    The criminal investigation led by Weiss has been open since 2018, and was expected to wind down with the plea deal that Hunter Biden had planned to strike with prosecutors over the summer. He would have pleaded guilty to two misdemeanor tax evasion charges and would have entered a separate agreement on the gun charge, getting two years of probation rather than jail time.

    It was pilloried as a “sweetheart deal” by Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, who is facing criminal charges in multiple cases.

    The agreement also contained immunity provisions, and defense attorneys have argued that they remain in force since that part of the agreement was signed by a prosecutor before the deal was scrapped.

    Prosecutors disagree, pointing out the documents weren’t signed by a judge and are invalid.

    After the deal fell apart, prosecutors filed three federal gun charges alleging that Hunter Biden had lied about his drug use to buy a gun that he kept for 11 days in 2018. Federal law bans gun possession by “habitual drug users,” though the measure is seldom seen as a stand-alone charge and has been called into question by a federal appeals court.

    The defense is planning to push next week for dismissal of the “unprecedented and unconstitutional” gun charges, Lowell said.

    Hunter Biden’s longstanding struggle with substance abuse had worsened during that period after the death of his brother Beau Biden in 2015, prosecutors wrote in a draft plea agreement filed in court in Delaware.

    He still made “substantial income” in 2017 and 2018, including $2.6 million in business and consulting fees from a company he formed with the CEOs of a Chinese business conglomerate and the Ukrainian energy company Burisma, but did not pay his taxes on a total of about $4 million in personal income during that period, prosecutors said in the scuttled Delaware plea agreement.

    He did eventually file his taxes in 2020 and the back taxes were paid by a “third party” the following year, prosecutors said.

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  • Nikki Haley says GOP rivals are 'just jealous' about her corporate supporters

    Nikki Haley says GOP rivals are 'just jealous' about her corporate supporters

    Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley pushed back when pressed at Wednesday’s primary debate on whether she’s too tight with billionaires and corporate interests, saying those supporters won’t affect her stances on key issues.

    “When it comes to these corporate people that want to suddenly support us, we’ll take it, but I don’t ask them what their policies are. They ask me what my policies are, and I tell them,” said Haley, a former ambassador to the U.N. and former South Carolina governor.

    “Sometimes they agree with me, sometimes they don’t,” she added. “Some don’t like how tough I am on China. Some don’t like the fact that I’ve signed pro-life bills. Some don’t like the fact that I may oppose corporate bailouts.”

    Also see: Republican debate: Chris Christie says Trump’s China tariffs helped drive inflation

    GOP rival Vivek Ramaswamy attacked Haley over her time on Boeing’s
    BA,
    +1.17%
    board of directors and the money she’s received from Silicon Valley billionaire Reid Hoffman.

    “Nikki, you were bankrupt when you left the U.N.,” the entrepreneur said. “Now you’re a multimillionaire. That math does not add up. It adds up to the fact that you are corrupt.”

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criticized her as well, saying: “These Wall Street liberal donors, they make money in China. They are not going to let her be tough on China, and she will cave to the donors.”

    Presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy holds up a sign that accuses rival Nikki Haley of being corrupt as he speaks during the fourth Republican presidential primary debate at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa.


    AFP via Getty Images

    Haley, meanwhile, said she wasn’t bankrupt after her stint as ambassador, but rather she and her husband had been in public service. She also spoke highly of Boeing, but noted she left the airplane maker’s board because she didn’t support its efforts to get a bailout during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    “In terms of these donors that are supporting me, they’re just jealous,” Haley added, referring to DeSantis and Ramaswamy. “They wish that they were supporting them.”

    The comments came Wednesday night at the 2024 Republican presidential primary’s fourth debate, held at the University of Alabama. Besides DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also took part in the clash.

    The primary’s frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, skipped the debate, just as he steered clear of the previous three.

    Related: Nikki Haley has ‘all of the momentum’ as the latest Republican debate hits but faces uphill battle to topple Trump

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  • New York Gov. Hochul picks February date for special election to Santos seat in House

    New York Gov. Hochul picks February date for special election to Santos seat in House

    ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — A special election to pick a successor to George Santos, the New York Republican who was expelled from the U.S. House last week, will be held on Feb. 13, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced Tuesday.

    The race for a seat representing some Long Island suburbs and a small part of the New York City borough of Queens is expected to be a high-profile contest that will mark the start of a year of consequential congressional elections in the state.

    For Democrats, the election will be a test of the party’s ability to flip districts around New York City that are seen as vital to their plans to retake control of the House. Republicans enter the contest with heavy momentum on Long Island and will fight to hold on to the district as they look to maintain their narrow House majority.

    From the archives (December 2022): Yes, top House Republicans knew of George Santos’s lies before his election in November

    Candidates in the special election will be picked by party leaders, not voters.

    Former U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi has emerged as the potential frontrunner nominee for Democrats. Suozzi, 61, represented the district for six years before launching an unsuccessful campaign for governor last year, and previously held political posts as a county executive and mayor on Long Island.

    The centrist Democrat’s deep ties in Long Island politics may provide name recognition and the ability to quickly stand up a campaign — vital attributes in an narrowly focused election where voters will have a limited amount of time to pick their representative.

    From the archives (January 2023): George Santos has ‘disgraced’ U.S. House and should resign, say fellow Long Island Republicans

    Suozzi had announced his campaign for the seat before Santos was expelled, and has been promoting a series of endorsements from local politicians and labor groups after the district became vacant.

    Also vying for the Democratic nomination is former state senator Anna Kaplan, who has in recent days taken potshots at Suozzi’s record and sought to center the special election on passing federal legislation guaranteeing abortion rights.

    On the Republican side, potential names include retired police detective Mike Sapraicone, Air Force veteran Kellen Curry and Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip, an Ethiopian-born Jewish woman who served in the Israeli military.

    Sapraicone, who is also the founder of a private security company, said he has been interviewed by county Republicans who will select the nominee, with the panel quizzing him on his political stances, his ability to fundraise and quickly launch a campaign.

    Like Suozzi, Sapraicone launched his campaign before Santos was expelled and has already begun to fundraise, with his campaign coffers including $300,000 of his own money, he said.

    “For us to maintain the House and retain the majority is so important,” Sapraicone said. “It’s so important that New York sets the tone here in February.”

    Democrats want to flip at least five House seats in New York next year, with the Santos seat being a potential early indicator of their chances in November.

    The party has dedicated significant financial and organizational resources to the state, after a series of losses last year in the New York City suburbs helped Republicans take control of the House and brought down heavy criticism on state Democrats.

    President Joe Biden won the district in 2020, but Republicans have notched electoral gains on Long Island in recent years as moderate suburban voters there, in contrast to urban areas in much of the country, have shown signs of gravitating toward the GOP.

    In the latest sign of Republican strength on Long Island, the GOP won several local elections last month, including races in the now-vacant district.

    Santos was expelled from the House last week following a scandal-plagued tenure in Congress and a looming criminal trial. He is only the sixth member in the chamber’s history to be ousted by colleagues.

    He had survived an expulsion vote just a month earlier.

    Read on:

    Will George Santos still qualify for a pension and strolling around the House floor?

    There’s a George Santos bobblehead with a Pinocchio-style nose — and that’s no lie

    John Fetterman buys a George Santos Cameo for ‘ethically challenged colleague’ Bob Menendez

    House Republicans scuttle Democrats’ effort to expel George Santos

    Why Republicans are opposing a Senate bid to tighten up Supreme Court ethics amid Clarence Thomas questions

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  • How a second set of Trump tax cuts could jack up the national debt

    How a second set of Trump tax cuts could jack up the national debt

    If Donald Trump were to be elected president in 2024, what would it mean for U.S. tax policy and the national debt?

    There are growing expectations that he could deliver another round of big tax cuts, with the reductions coming right as those enacted in 2017’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act are due to expire in 2025.

    “If Republicans hold their House…

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  • Sen. Tim Scott drops out of the 2024 Republican presidential race

    Sen. Tim Scott drops out of the 2024 Republican presidential race

    COLUMBIA, S.C. — Republican presidential candidate Tim Scott announced late Sunday that he was dropping out of the 2024 race, about two months before the start of voting in Iowa’s leadoff caucuses.

    The South Carolina senator, who entered the race in May with high hopes, made the surprise announcement on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Night in America” with Trey Gowdy. The news was so abrupt that one campaign worker told The Associated Press that campaign staff found out Scott was dropping out by watching the show. The worker was not authorized to discuss the internal deliberations publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

    “I love America more today than I did on May 22,” Scott said Sunday. “But when I go back to Iowa, it will not be as a presidential candidate. I am suspending my campaign. I think the voters who are the most remarkable people on the planet have been really clear that they’re telling me, ‘Not now, Tim.’”

    Scott’s impending departure comes as he and the rest of the GOP field have struggled in a race that has been dominated by former President Donald Trump. Despite four criminal indictments and a slew of other legal challenges, Trump continues to poll far ahead of his rivals, leading many in the party to conclude the race is effectively over, barring some stunning change of fortune.

    Scott, in particular, has had trouble gaining traction in the polls, despite millions spent on his behalf by high-profile donors. In his efforts to run a positive campaign, he was often overshadowed by other candidates — particularly on the debate stage, where he seemed to disappear as others sparred. It was unclear whether Scott would qualify for the fourth debate, which will require higher polling numbers and more unique donors.

    He was the second high-profile Republican to depart from the race in the last couple of weeks, coming after former Vice President Mike Pence, who was still dealing with fallout from his decision to reject a scheme by Trump to overturn the results of the 2020 election, which was won by Democrat Joe Biden, and avoid a constitutional crisis.

    Scott said he wouldn’t be making an endorsement of his remaining Republican rivals.

    “The voters are really smart,” Scott said. “The best way for me to be helpful is to not weigh in on who they should endorse.”

    He also appeared to rule out serving as vice president, saying the No. 2 slot “has never been on my to-do list for this campaign, and it’s certainly not there now.”

    Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to news of Scott’s exit. But Trump has been careful not to criticize the senator, leading some in his orbit to consider Scott a potential vice presidential pick.

    The former president and his team had welcomed a large field of rivals, believing they would splinter the anti-Trump vote and prevent a clear challenger from emerging.

    Scott, a deeply religious former insurance broker, made his grandfather’s work in the cotton fields of the Deep South a bedrock of his political identity and of his presidential campaign. But he also refused to frame his own life story around the country’s racial inequities, insisting that those who disagree with his views on the issue are trying to “weaponize race to divide us,” and that “the truth of my life disproves their lies.”

    He sought to focus on hopeful themes and avoid divisive language to distinguish himself from the grievance-based politics favored by rivals including Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

    DeSantis responded to Scott’s announced departure by commending him as a “strong conservative with bold ideas about how to get our country back on track.

    “I respect his courage to run this campaign and thank him for his service to America and the U.S. Senate,” he wrote on social media.

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  • Former Vice President Mike Pence ends campaign for the White House after struggling to gain traction

    Former Vice President Mike Pence ends campaign for the White House after struggling to gain traction

    Former Vice President Mike Pence is dropping his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, ending his campaign for the White House after struggling to raise money and gain traction in the polls.

    “After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to suspend my campaign for president effective today,” Pence said at the Republican Jewish Coalition gathering in Las Vegas. “We always knew this would be an uphill battle, but I have no regrets,” he said.

    Pence becomes the first major candidate to leave a race that has been dominated by his former boss-turned-rival, Donald Trump.

    The decision, more than two months before the Iowa caucuses that he had staked his campaign on, saves Pence from the embarrassment of failing to qualify for the third Republican primary debate, Nov. 8 in Miami.

    But the withdrawal is a huge blow for a politician who spent years biding his time as Trump’s most loyal lieutenant, only to be scapegoated during their final days in office when Trump became convinced that Pence somehow had the power to overturn the results of the 2020 election and keep both men in office — not something a vice president could do.

    While Pence averted a constitutional crisis by rejecting the scheme, he drew Trump’s fury, as well as the wrath of many of Trump’s supporters who believed his lies and still see Pence as a traitor.

    Among Trump critics, meanwhile, Pence was seen as an enabler who defended the former president at every turn and refused to criticize even Trump’s most indefensible actions time and again.

    As a result, an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research from August found that the majority of U.S. adults, 57%, viewed Pence negatively, with only 28% having a positive view.

    Throughout his campaign, the former Indiana governor and congressman had insisted that while he was well-known by voters, he was not “known well” and set out to change that with an aggressive schedule that included numerous stops at diners and Pizza Ranch restaurants.

    Pence had been betting on Iowa, a state with a large white Evangelical population that has a long history of elevating religious and socially conservative candidates such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Rick Santorum.

    Pence often campaigned with his wife, Karen, a Christian school teacher, and emphasized his hard-line views on issues such as abortion, which he opposes even in cases when a pregnancy is unviable.

    He repeatedly called on his fellow candidates to support a minimum 15-week national ban and he pushed to ban drugs used as alternatives to surgical procedures.

    He tried to confront head-on his actions on Jan. 6, 2021 , explaining to voters over and over that he had done his constitutional duty that day, knowing full well the political consequences. It was a strategy that aides believed would help defuse the issue and earn Pence the respect of a majority of Republicans, whom they were were convinced did not agree with Trump’s actions.

    But even in Iowa, Pence struggled to gain traction.

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  • Biden will face a primary bid from Rep. Dean Phillips, who says Democrats need to focus on future

    Biden will face a primary bid from Rep. Dean Phillips, who says Democrats need to focus on future

    CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — For months, Dean Phillips has been calling for a Democratic primary challenge to President Joe Biden. He’s drawn no public interest from governors, lawmakers, and other would-be alternatives.

    The Minnesota congressman is finally entering the race himself.

    The 54-year-old Phillips has scheduled a campaign announcement Friday at the New Hampshire statehouse in Concord. Asked during an interview by CBS if he was running for president, Phillips responded: “I am. I have to.”

    “I think President Biden has done a spectacular job for our country,” he said. “But it’s not about the past. This is an election about the future.”

    While Phillips is highly unlikely to beat Biden, a run would offer a symbolic challenge to national Democrats trying to project the idea that there is no reason to doubt the president’s electability — even as many Americans question whether the 80-year-old Biden should serve another term.

    Phillips may also benefit from New Hampshire Democrats angry at Biden for diluting their state’s influence on the 2024 Democratic primary calendar, a change that state party chairman Ray Buckley has warned could create a “potential embarrassment” by “an insurgent candidate, serious or not.”

    Biden’s reelection campaign and the Democratic National Committee have declined to address Phillips’ possible run. But White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre noted Phillips’ voting record and said, “We appreciate the congressman’s almost 100% support of this president.”

    Buckley was far more upbeat about Biden this week, saying the president would easily clinch his state’s primary even though he won’t officially run in it, requiring a write-in campaign. And Biden is planning to head next week to Phillips’ home state for an official event and fundraiser.

    The president has long cast himself as uniquely qualified to beat Donald Trump again after his 2020 win, and top Democrats have lined up behind him while also positioning themselves for a future primary run.

    Phillips has already missed the deadline to enter Nevada’s primary and is little known nationally. But he argues Biden may not be able to beat Trump again, telling CBS News that polling suggests “we’re going to be facing an emergency next November.”

    “I think it’s time for a new generation,” he told the network. “I think it’s time to pass the torch.”

    New Hampshire primary challenges have a history of wounding incumbent presidents.

    In 1968, another Minnesotan, Democratic Sen. Eugene McCarthy, built his campaign around opposing the Vietnam War and finished second in New Hampshire’s primary, helping push President Lyndon Johnson into forgoing a second term. Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy’s challenge of President Jimmy Carter and Pat Buchanan’s run against President George H.W. Bush both failed, but Carter and Bush ultimately lost their reelection bids.

    The state’s influence on Democrats was curtailed this year by changes engineered by the DNC at Biden’s behest.

    A new Democratic calendar has South Carolina leading off presidential primary voting on Feb. 3 and Nevada going three days later. New Hampshire has refused to comply, citing state laws saying its primary must go first, and plans a primary before South Carolina’s. The DNC could, in turn, strip the state of its nominating delegates.

    Steve Shurtleff, a former speaker of the New Hampshire House who has distanced himself from Biden, said he has spoken twice with Phillips and believed the congressman might appeal to some Democrats and independents who can choose to vote in the primary.

    “I like Biden and have a lot of respect for him. But I’m disappointed that he and the DNC have tried to take away our primary,” Shurtleff said. “It’s not that I want to see Joe lose. It’s that I want to see our primary win.”

    But Terry Shumaker, a former DNC member from New Hampshire and longtime Biden supporter, said he expects the president to easily clinch the state as a write-in option. Shumaker recalled going door to door for McCarthy in 1968, but doesn’t see Phillips gaining similar traction.

    “I’m not aware of what his message is,” he said. “To do well in the New Hampshire primary, you have to have a message.”

    There are no primary debates scheduled, according to the DNC. The only other Democrat running in the 2024 primary is self-help author Marianne Williamson. Anti-vaccine activist Robert Kennedy Jr. announced this month that he’s running as an independent.

    Phillips is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and heir to his stepfather’s Phillips Distilling Company empire, which holds major vodka and schnapps brands. He once served as that company’s president but also ran the gelato maker Talenti. His grandmother was the late Pauline Phillips, better known as the advice columnist “Dear Abby.”

    Driving a gelato truck was a centerpiece of his first House campaign in 2018, when Phillips unseated five-term Republican Erik Paulsen. While his district in mostly affluent greater Minneapolis has become more Democratic-leaning, Phillips has stressed that he is a moderate focused on his suburban constituents. He is a member of the centrist Problem Solvers Caucus in Congress.

    Phillips has been suggesting since the summer that top Democrats challenge Biden for their party’s nomination but has been ignored by governors and other top elected officials. He told CBS in the interview on Friday that he hoped his announcing would encourage other primary challengers saying of competition “we need it.”

    Challenging his party’s leadership isn’t new for Phillips. When he first got to Congress, he spoke of the need for a “new generation” of Democrats to replace then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and was frustrated when no one emerged. He later praised Pelosi as “one of the most successful speakers of all time.”

    Still, he’s not the only one voicing concerns now. An AP-NORC poll released in August found that the top words associated with Biden were “old” and “confused.” Nearly 70% of Democrats and 77% of U.S. adults said they thought Biden was too old to be effective for four more years. The same poll found that respondents most frequently described Trump as “corrupt” and “dishonest.”

    Leslie Blanding, a retired teacher and Democrat from Bow, New Hampshire, said she did not know Phillips but was “thoroughly conflicted” over whether Biden should face a primary challenger.

    “I think Biden is too old. I think from the outset, he should’ve been looking to groom someone to succeed him, and he didn’t do that,” said Blanding, 75. “But I think he seems to be the only one positioned to have a strong chance of defeating Trump or whomever.”

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  • Jim Jordan dropped as speaker nominee by House Republicans, who plan for new pick next week

    Jim Jordan dropped as speaker nominee by House Republicans, who plan for new pick next week

    House Republicans voted Friday in a secret ballot against keeping Rep. Jim Jordan as their nominee for speaker, and they planned to determine a new nominee next week.

    The Ohio congressman had been facing resistance in his bid to become speaker, with the number of fellow Republicans voting against him rising to 25 in a third round of voting Friday on the House floor, up from 22 in a prior ballot. 

    House GOP lawmakers were expected to meet Monday evening for a new forum for speaker candidates. Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma said in a post on X that he was running for the job, and Rep. Jack Bergman of Michigan has indicated he’ll seek the post as well.

    The GOP opposition to Jordan stemmed from a range of concerns, including that his speakership could lead to cuts in defense
    ITA
    spending, as well as the view that he didn’t provide enough support for the speaker bid of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a Louisiana Republican. Jordan’s Republican opponents also said they’ve faced death threats for their stance, with Rep. Drew Ferguson of Georgia saying Thursday that the House GOP “does not need a bully as the Speaker.”

    Analysts have been warning that the process of picking a new speaker is preventing the Republican-run House from addressing crucial matters, such as supporting Israel and passing a budget to avoid a government shutdown next month that could rattle markets. It has been 17 days since the historic ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican.

    Related: Israel, Ukraine aid could run up against House dysfunction, making for ‘tragedy,’ analyst says

    And see: Biden seeks $14 billion for Israel, $61 billion for Ukraine in request to Congress

    With the House looking rudderless for more than two weeks, the chamber’s temporary speaker, GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, has faced calls to take on the job more permanently. But a measure that would have McHenry serve in the post until January stalled on Thursday afternoon due to objections from a number of Republicans, even as Jordan offered his support for it.

    U.S. stocks
    SPX

    DJIA

    COMP
    were losing ground Friday, as rising bond yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    and geopolitical tensions continue to take a toll. 

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  • Jim Jordan dropped as speaker nominee by House Republicans, who plan for new pick next week

    Jim Jordan dropped as speaker nominee by House Republicans, who plan for new pick next week

    House Republicans voted Friday in a secret ballot against keeping Rep. Jim Jordan as their nominee for speaker, and they planned to determine a new nominee next week.

    The Ohio congressman had been facing resistance in his bid to become speaker, with the number of fellow Republicans voting against him rising to 25 in a third round of voting Friday on the House floor, up from 22 in a prior ballot. 

    House…

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  • Jim Jordan nominated for speaker by House GOP amid worries over government shutdown and support for Israel

    Jim Jordan nominated for speaker by House GOP amid worries over government shutdown and support for Israel

    Rep. Jim Jordan won the nomination Friday to be speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives after launching a fresh bid for the position, as analysts warned that the process of finding a replacement for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was preventing the Republican-run chamber from addressing crucial matters.

    Jordan, an Ohio Republican who chairs the House Judiciary Committee, said “yup” on Friday morning when he was asked if he was running again for speaker after House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, ended his bid late Thursday.

    House Republicans voted in favor of Jordan in the afternoon, with 124 supporting him and 81 backing another candidate for speaker, GOP Rep. Austin Scott of Georgia, according to multiple reports. Republican lawmakers then left for the weekend and were expected to reconvene Monday.

    Rep. Austin Scott, a Georgia Republican, also spoke to reporters about the House speaker position on Friday.


    Getty Images

    Scott, who has been in office since 2011, said in a post on X that he wanted to “lead a House that functions in the best interest of the American people.”

    To become speaker of the GOP-led chamber, a candidate must earn the support of a majority of House Republicans. Jordan has crossed that hurdle but now must prevail in a vote on the House floor. Scalise bowed out of the running after it appeared he did not have sufficient support for a floor vote.

    See: House speaker election — how it works

    “[W]e need to be unified and get to the floor, and we want that to happen as soon as possible,” Jordan told Cleveland.com before the GOP vote on Friday.

    Scalise’s decision to drop his bid “delays the resumption of meaningful legislative
    business at least well into next week,” Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, said in a note on Friday.

    A similar warning came from Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments. The House has had a temporary speaker — GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina — since Oct. 3, when McCarthy was ousted in a historic vote.

    “This paralysis in the House is becoming a serious issue, as major legislation has stalled,” Valliere said in a note. “A government shutdown can’t be ruled out as the next deadline approaches on Nov. 17. More aid to Israel and Ukraine is widely supported in both parties and in both houses, but can this funding overcome procedural hurdles in the House?”

    Related: Kevin McCarthy’s ouster means chance of government shutdown next month ‘just went up to 80%,’ analyst says

    One betting market, Smarkets, was giving Jordan, a co-founder of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, a 42% chance of becoming speaker. The Ohio congressman “faces difficult math,” as at least five Republican lawmakers are expected to vote against him on the House floor, and their ranks “may balloon by the time a floor vote is called,” Height’s Salisbury said.

    Other options that have gotten attention include giving more power to McHenry, the temporary speaker, or making a bipartisan deal on a speaker.

    U.S. stocks
    SPX

    DJIA

    COMP
    closed mostly lower Friday, with the selling blamed in part on the Israel-Hamas war.

    Now read: What U.S. political dysfunction means for the stock market and investors

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  • Betting markets now see a Trump 2024 win as likelier than a Biden victory — and give Newsom better chances than Trump’s GOP rivals

    Betting markets now see a Trump 2024 win as likelier than a Biden victory — and give Newsom better chances than Trump’s GOP rivals

    Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election appear to be improving this week, as betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics put them just ahead of President Joe Biden’s for the first time this year — at 32%, compared with 30%.

    That’s illustrated in the below chart, which also shows Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California with an 8% chance of getting elected president, even though he has ruled out a White House run repeatedly. Newsom’s chances are ahead of those for Trump’s rivals for the Republican nomination, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.

    To be sure, betting markets got last year’s midterm elections wrong and can be poor predictors for several reasons. The clientele for political gambling tends to be right-leaning and male, and betting markets can get caught up in narratives as well as skewed by unreliable polls, one expert in political gambling and prediction markets told MarketWatch last year.

    Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have hit a new high for the year, as Biden seems to fade a bit, DeSantis has seen a big drop, and some bettors like Michelle Obama.


    RealClearPolitics

    Trump’s improved chances come as he skipped a GOP primary debate for a second time, instead giving a speech Wednesday night directed at Michigan auto workers in which he suggested that none of the debaters deserved to become his vice president.

    The former president has 56.6% support in national primary polls, according to a RealClearPolitics moving average of surveys. He has been indicted this year in two separate election-interference cases, a hush-money case and a classified-documents case, but many Republican voters have rallied around him.

    DeSantis is a distant second in those polls with 14.4% support, followed by Haley at 5.8%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 5.1% and former Trump VP Mike Pence at 4.2%. In aggregate, the non-Trump GOP candidates get 35.9% support in RCP’s average of national polls, compared with Trump’s 56.6%. In RCP’s average of surveys for Iowa, which holds the first major contest in the GOP primary, they get 46.4% support vs. his 49.2%.

    Now read: DeSantis says at debate that Trump’s spending ‘set the stage for the inflation that we have now’

    See also: Gas tax a target at Republican debate. Here’s what you’re paying now.

    Plus: Instagram, other social media should be banned for anyone 16 and under, Ramaswamy says at GOP debate

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  • Here’s how the Republican presidential candidates say they’ll whip inflation

    Here’s how the Republican presidential candidates say they’ll whip inflation

    Inflation remains a top concern among Americans, so what do the Republicans seeking President Joe Biden’s job say they’ll do about it?

    MarketWatch asked the 2024 GOP White House hopefuls to give at least three ways that they would address the elevated prices that have blown up many household budgets.

    Most campaigns provided responses, while some didn’t but have offered proposals in other venues. See what they’re all planning below.

    The economy is the No. 1 issue for Republican voters, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll, which found 36% citing the economy generally and an additional 10% citing inflation.

    MarketWatch contacted the eight contenders who took part in their primary’s first debate, along with former President Donald Trump, who skipped the debate, and two relatively well-known contenders who failed to qualify for the first debate, Larry Elder and former Congressman Will Hurd. They are listed below in order of their ranking in the latest polls, based on a RealClearPolitics moving average.

    Inflation was low when Trump became president, with prices rising less than 2% a year. That was even considered a problem before the COVID-19 pandemic, with inflation often characterized as stubbornly or persistently low. Inflation began to spike in 2021, shortly after Biden took office, due to a global shortage of goods and a huge rebound in consumer demand following the pandemic’s early stages. Economists say massive stimulus by both the Trump and Biden administrations as well as low interest rates fostered by the Federal Reserve helped to push inflation to a 40-year high.

    Biden has stressed that inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index, has “fallen by around two-thirds,” and he and his team have talked up their efforts to lower costs for prescription drugs and insulin, to crack down on junk fees for a range of services, and to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to lower gasoline prices. Biden’s re-election campaign didn’t respond to MarketWatch’s request for comment.

    Donald Trump

    “I would get inflation down,” Trump said in a recent interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press,” while saying that “we did a great job with inflation.” His campaign pointed MarketWatch to a number of policy proposals in which Trump himself is quoted.

    Former President Donald Trump walks over to speak with reporters before departing from Atlanta’s airport last month.


    AP

    • The former president says he’ll rein in what he calls Biden’s “wasteful spending,” which Trump says is key to stopping inflation. Trump is proposing to use what’s known as impoundment authority to reduce federal spending. That term refers to the ability of a president to withhold congressionally appropriated funds from their intended use, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

    • Trump also calls for boosting energy output. “When I’m back in the White House, I will immediately unleash energy production, slash regulations, like I did just three years ago, and repeal Biden’s tax hikes to get inflation down as fast as possible, and it will go quickly, so that interest rates can get back under control,” Trump says on his campaign website. “I would get inflation down, because drill we must,” he told “Meet the Press.”

    • A Trump spokesman did not respond when asked for specifics about which Biden-approved tax increases Trump would repeal. The former president and his advisers, meanwhile, have reportedly discussed deeper cuts to both individual and corporate rates that would build on the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

    Ron DeSantis

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, says a spokesman, “will reduce inflation by, among other measures, tackling government spending, unleashing domestic energy and removing burdensome Biden administration regulations.”

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks in July during a press conference in West Columbia, S.C.


    AP Photo/Sean Rayford

    • In his economic plan, DeSantis leans heavily into energy policy for addressing inflation. “DeSantis will unleash our domestic energy sector, modernize and protect our grid and advance American energy independence. This will not only increase our economic and national security while reducing inflation, [but] it will also help fuel a manufacturing renaissance that will create jobs, revitalize our communities and improve our standard of living,” says his plan.

    • He told “CBS Evening News with Norah O’Donnell” that, as president, he would “stop spending so much money. We need a president that’s going to be a force for spending restraint, because that’s one of the root causes, with Congress spending so much.” He criticized both Democrats and Republicans for government spending.

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks in April at an event in Iowa.


    AP

    “This isn’t complicated,” entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy said in a recent post on X. “Fight inflation, unleash growth by taking the handcuffs [off] the U.S. energy sector & dismantling the regulatory state.” His campaign didn’t respond to MarketWatch’s request for comment, but his campaign website offers the following proposals:

    • “Drill, frack & burn coal : abandon the climate cult & unshackle nuclear energy.”

    • “Launch deregulatory ‘Reagan 2.0’ revolution: cut > 75% headcount amongst U.S. regulators.”

    • Ramaswamy is also calling for dramatically changing the Federal Reserve, by ending the central bank’s dual mandate of keeping inflation low and maintaining full employment. “Limit the U.S. Fed’s scope: stabilize the dollar
      DXY
      & nothing more,” his campaign site says.

    Nikki Haley

    A spokesman for Nikki Haley’s campaign pointed to a Fox Business interview on Wednesday in which she called for ending the federal gas tax and cutting spending, as well as to her speech Friday in New Hampshire on her economic plan.

    Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor.


    Getty Images

    • “We want to eliminate the federal gas tax completely,” Haley told Fox Business. “We have to get more money in our taxpayers’ pockets.” That tax helps pay for highways, but she said the system isn’t working, echoing a point that some policy analysts have previously made. Biden pushed for temporarily suspending the federal gas tax in 2022, but Congress didn’t provide sufficient support for his proposal. In her economic speech, Haley also promised to cut income taxes for working families and make permanent the tax cuts that small businesses scored in 2017’s GOP tax overhaul.

    • The former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said members of Congress are “spending like drunken sailors,” as she promised to reduce the federal government’s outlays. “I will veto any spending bill that doesn’t take us back to pre-COVID levels,” she told Fox Business, referring to budgets that date to before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020.

    • Haley in her speech Friday pledged to support the U.S. energy industry, as she suggested that Washington has been “stifling it.” She said: “We’ll drill so much oil and gas, families will save big on their utility bills.”

    Mike Pence

    A spokesman for Pence’s campaign pointed to the former vice president’s plan for “ending inflation,” which calls for actions such as reducing the federal government’s spending and changing the Federal Reserve’s job description.

    Former Vice President Mike Pence served as governor of Indiana and as a congressman before becoming Donald Trump’s running mate in 2016.


    AP

    • A Pence administration would “end runaway deficits by freezing non-defense spending, eliminating unnecessary government programs, repealing over $3 trillion in new spending under Biden, and reforming mandatory programs that drive our debt,” the plan says. Earlier this year, he urged “commonsense and compassionate” reforms for programs such as Social Security and Medicaid.

    • Pence wants to end the Fed’s dual mandate, which calls for the U.S. central bank to focus on full employment and stable prices. “Trying to serve two, often contradictory goals has led to wild fluctuation in rates,” his plan says, adding that it’s better to “leave employment policy to the president and Congress.”

    • The former vice president’s plan said he aims to bring supply chains and production “back home,” and that would happen by “removing regulatory burdens, enacting pro-growth tax policies, and ensuring access to abundant American energy.” In other words: “We will fight inflation by making America the best place to do business again.”

    • Similar to his 2024 GOP rivals, Pence blasts Biden’s energy policies, though some of the Democratic incumbent’s stances, such as his approval of the Willow drilling project in Alaska, have also been criticized by environmental groups. Pence’s plan says: “It is time to reverse Biden’s attack on American energy by restarting oil and gas leasing on federal lands, opening the Arctic and offshore regions for exploration
      XOP,
      approving safe transportation of oil and gas, mining rare earth minerals, and rejecting climate change hysteria that is causing U.S. energy
      XLE
      production to fall.”

    Chris Christie

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie addresses a New Hampshire audience in April.


    AP Photo/Charles Krupa

    Chris Christie’s White House campaign didn’t respond to MarketWatch’s requests for comment, but the former New Jersey governor has emphasized that reducing government spending will help tame inflation.

    “The out-of-control government spending has created this inflation,” Christie said in June during a CNN town hall. “I mean, even Larry Summers, who I don’t agree with much on, former Democratic Treasury secretary, warned Joe Biden, ‘Don’t do this spending. It’s going to cause the inflation.’ So, first, we need to bring spending down, and we’ve talked about that before.”

    Related: Larry Summers has a new inflation warning

    Tim Scott

    U.S. Sen. Tim Scott pointed to reducing the federal government’s spending and repealing one of Biden’s signature legislative packages, when asked about how he would address inflation.

    Tim Scott, a U.S. senator from South Carolina, speaks last month during the presidential debate in Milwaukee.


    Getty Images

    • Scott, from South Carolina, said in a statement that he would aim to “snap non-defense discretionary spending back to the pre-COVID 2019 baseline.” He described that as stopping Democrats from “turning the temporary pandemic into permanent socialism.”

    • Scott said he would rescind the Inflation Reduction Act, which is Democrats’ big economic package aimed at addressing climate change, capping drug costs and raising hundreds of billions of dollars through taxes on corporations. “The Inflation Reduction Act actually increased inflation and the only thing it reduced was money in our pockets,” he said in his statement. “Cutting that off and restoring tax cuts and eliminating the tax increases would go a long way to having the kind of stimulative impact in our economy and controlling spending.”

    • Scott called for stronger economic growth. “We have to also grow our economy somewhere near 5% consistently,” he said, adding that could create 10 million jobs. The U.S. economy grew by nearly 6% in 2021 after contracting in 2020 as COVID hit, then it expanded by about 2% in 2022.

    Related: Republican presidential candidate Tim Scott says he wants to put the focus on tax cuts

    Asa Hutchinson

    Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson blames “excessive federal spending” for leading to inflation when giving speeches, and outlines a plan for “fiscal responsibility” on his campaign site.

    Asa Hutchinson, governor of Arkansas from 2015 until this year, speaks at an Iowa event in April.


    Scott Olson/Getty Images

    • “Restore discipline by reducing federal government size, cutting spending, balancing the budget, and lowering the deficit to tame inflation,” it states.

    • When Hutchinson was governor, he signed a $500 million tax-cut package, saying “it could not come at a better time with the continued challenge of high food and gas prices.” That was in August 2022. On his campaign website, he repeats a call to cut taxes and “reduce regulations to boost the private sector and enhance wages for American workers.”

    Hutchinson’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment from MarketWatch.  

    Doug Burgum

    North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a GOP presidential hopeful, speaks at the Iowa State Fair in August.


    Brandon Bell/Getty Images

    North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s website says that as president he would “get inflation under control, cut taxes, lower gas prices
    RB00,
    +0.31%    ,
    reduce the cost of living and help people realize their fullest potential.” It doesn’t provide specifics.

    A spokesman for Burgum’s White House campaign didn’t respond to MarketWatch’s requests for comment. A spokesman reportedly told the New York Times that the campaign will roll out its vision and plans on its own timeline.

    Larry Elder

    Larry Elder, a conservative radio host and a gubernatorial candidate in California in the failed 2021 recall of Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom, said he views energy and tax policy and a constitutional amendment as ways to whip inflation.

    Larry Elder is a conservative radio host and former gubernatorial candidate in California.


    AP

    • “Reverse the war on oil
      CL00,
      +0.93%
      and gas
      NG00,
      -2.65%
      ; permit drilling in Anwar [Arctic National Wildlife Refuge]; authorize the Keystone Pipeline; reverse the Biden restrictions on drilling on federal lands; and encourage nuclear energy
      NLR,
      ” Elder said in a statement.

    • “Encourage an amendment to the Constitution to set spending to a fixed percent of the GDP,” he also said.

    • Elder said the reduction in spending forced by that constitutional amendment would “coincide with a steep reduction in personal and corporate income taxes,” offering further help to Americans with stretched budgets.

    Will Hurd

    2024 Republican presidential hopeful Will Hurd, a former Texas congressman, speaks in Iowa in July.


    AFP via Getty Images

    Former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd of Texas announced his candidacy in June but so far hasn’t made it to the debate stage. In his campaign-launch video, he labeled inflation “still out of control.”

    • In a post on X in June, Hurd called for reining in spending. “You cannot be putting government funds into, at a time where you’re seeing the rising inflation,” he said.

    • And he said tax hikes are a nonstarter when inflation is high. “The worst time to talk about increasing taxes is when everybody’s hurting from inflation.”

    • Hurd also said the deficit should be addressed, to “start bending the curve back on the debt.”

    Hurd’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment from MarketWatch.

    Now read: Republican presidential debate: Candidates could win with a clear economic message about the ‘crisis among working people’

    And see: As Biden joins UAW picket line, poll shows Democrats’ edge over GOP on ‘caring about people like me’ has vanished

    Jeffry Bartash contributed.

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  • Chris Christie fires back at Donald Trump as the Republican race heats up in New Hampshire

    Chris Christie fires back at Donald Trump as the Republican race heats up in New Hampshire

    “‘Keep it coming, Donald.’”

    That’s Republican presidential candidate and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie responding to recent attacks against him by former President Donald Trump, the leading Republican contender in the 2024 race.

    In an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Thursday, Christie faulted Trump for not agreeing to appear at the Republican presidential debates, where Christie said Trump would have the opportunity to confront his fellow candidates in person.

    “If he had any guts, he’d get on the debate stage,” Christie said, adding that the former president was hiding behind his “failed” Truth Social site.

    In a series of Truth Social posts that went up late Wednesday, Trump accused Christie of being a “grifter” and pointed to issues with his tenure as New Jersey governor, noting Christie’s low approval rating at the end of his two terms. Trump’s posts also included the now-infamous pictures of Christie sitting at a New Jersey beach in 2017 during a time when such spaces were closed due to the state’s government shutdown.

    Christie has generally trailed in the 2024 presidential polling, but has been making a strong effort to establish himself in New Hampshire, a key early state.

    According to a recent CNN/University of New Hampshire poll, Trump still leads in the state by a wide margin (39%), but Christie (11%) is essentially in a four-way tie with tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (13%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (12%) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (10%) for second place. DeSantis had been considered Trump’s closest rival in the state, but he’s seen his poll numbers drop considerably of late.

    Christie said on CNN that his rise in New Hampshire has likely prompted Trump’s recent accusations.

    “He has stopped attacking Ron DeSantis and he started attacking me,” Christie said.

    Christie also jokingly questioned if Trump’s late-Wednesday Truth Social posts were a result of indigestion.

    “Maybe he had some bad Chinese food or something,” Christie said.

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  • Biden surveys hurricane’s toll from the sky and on the ground in Florida. DeSantis opts out of meeting.

    Biden surveys hurricane’s toll from the sky and on the ground in Florida. DeSantis opts out of meeting.

    President Joe Biden got a look Saturday from the sky at Hurricane Idalia’s impact across a swath of Florida before setting out on a walking tour of a city recovering from the storm.

    Notably absent from his schedule was any time with Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican presidential candidate who suggested a meeting could hinder disaster-response efforts.

    “Our teams worked collectively to find this area. This was a mutually agreed upon area because of the limited impact,” Deanne Criswell, the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, told reporters as the president flew from Washington. She said her teams “have heard no concerns over any impact to the communities that we’re going to visit today.”

    “ On Friday, hours after President Biden indicated he would be meeting with Gov. DeSantis, the Republican’s office issued a statement saying there were no plans for such a get-together. ”

    Air Force One landed at the airport in Gainesville, where the president and first lady Jill Biden boarded Marine One for a helicopter flight to Live Oak, about 80 miles east of Tallahassee, the capital. He awaited a briefing on response and recovery efforts and a session with federal and local officials and first responders before his walk.

    On Friday, hours after Biden said he would be meeting with DeSantis, the governor’s office issued a statement saying there were no plans for such a get-together.

    “In these rural communities, and so soon after impact, the security preparations alone that would go into setting up such a meeting would shut down ongoing recovery efforts,” DeSantis spokesman Jeremy Redfern said in a statement.

    Criswell said aboard the flight that power is being restored and the road are all open in the area where Biden was going. “Access is not being hindered,” she said, adding that her team had been in “close coordination” with the governor’s staff.

    Idalia made landfall Wednesday morning along Florida’s sparsely populated Big Bend region as a Category 3 storm, causing widespread flooding and damage before moving north to drench Georgia and the Carolinas.

    As Biden left Washington on Saturday morning, he was asked by reporters what happened with that meeting. “I don’t know. He’s not going to be there,” the president said. He later said the federal government would “take care of Florida.”

    Previously: Idalia: Biden tells DeSantis Florida will have ‘full support’

    Gov. Ron DeSantis looks on in 2021 as President Joe Biden speaks during a Miami Beach briefing on the partial condominium collapse in Surfside, Fla.


    AP/Susan Walsh

    The political disconnect between both sides is a break from the recent past, since Biden and DeSantis met when the president toured Florida after Hurricane Ian hit the state last year, and following the Surfside condo collapse in Miami Beach in summer 2021. But DeSantis is now running to unseat Biden, and he only left the Republican presidential primary trail with Idalia barreling toward his state.

    Putting aside political rivalries following natural disasters can be tricky, meanwhile.

    Another 2024 presidential candidate, former Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, has long been widely criticized in GOP circles for embracing then-President Barack Obama during a tour of damage 2012’s Hurricane Sandy did to his state. Christie was even asked about the incident last month, during the first Republican presidential debate.

    Both Biden and DeSantis at first suggested that helping storm victims would outweigh partisan differences. But the governor began suggesting that a presidential trip would complicate response logistics as the week wore on.

    “There’s a time and a place to have political season,” the governor said before Idalia made landfall. “But then there’s a time and a place to say that this is something that’s life threatening, this is something that could potentially cost somebody their life, it could cost them their livelihood.”

    By Friday, the governor was telling reporters of Biden, “one thing I did mention to him on the phone” was “it would be very disruptive to have the whole security apparatus that goes” with the president “because there are only so many ways to get into” many of the hardest hit areas.

    “What we want to do is make sure that the power restoration continues and the relief efforts continue and we don’t have any interruption in that,” DeSantis said.

    Biden joked while delivering pizzas to workers at FEMA’s Washington headquarters on Thursday that he’d spoken to DeSantis so frequently about Idalia that “there should be a direct dial” between the pair.

    Homeland Security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall pointed to the experiences after Ian and Surfside collapse in saying earlier this week that Biden and DeSantis “are very collegial when we have the work to do together of helping Americans in need, citizens of Florida in need.”

    The post-Idalia political consequences are high for both men.

    As Biden seeks re-election, the White House has asked for an additional $4 billion to address natural disasters as part of its supplemental funding request to Congress. That would bring the total to $16 billion and highlight that wildfires, flooding and hurricanes have intensified during a period of climate change, imposing ever higher costs on U.S. taxpayers.

    DeSantis has built his White House bid around dismantling what he calls Democrats’ “woke” policies. The governor also frequently draws applause at GOP rallies by declaring that it’s time to send “Joe Biden back to his basement,” a reference to the Democrat’s Delaware home, where he spent much of his time during the early lockdowns of the coronavirus pandemic.

    From the archives (January 2022): Critics accuse DeSantis of base pandering as he pushes bill to shield white people in Florida from ‘discomfort’ at school or in job training

    Also see (May 2023): Florida school library limits access to Amanda Gorman’s poem for Biden inauguration after parent complaint

    But four months before the first ballots are to be cast in Iowa’s caucuses, DeSantis still lags far behind former President Donald Trump, the Republican primary’s dominant early frontrunner. And he has cycled through repeated campaign leadership shakeups and reboots of his image in an attempt to refocus his message.

    The super PAC supporting DeSantis’s candidacy also has halted its door-knocking operations in Nevada, which votes third on the Republican presidential primary calendar, and several states holding Super Tuesday primaries in March — a further sign of trouble.

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  • How the stock market’s performance under Biden is worse than under Obama or Trump — in one chart

    How the stock market’s performance under Biden is worse than under Obama or Trump — in one chart

    U.S. stocks so far haven’t fared as well under President Joe Biden as they did in Donald Trump’s single term or in either of Barack Obama’s two terms.

    The research team at Wilshire Indexes is pointing that out this month with the chart below, which features the FT Wilshire 5000
    XX:W5000FLT,
    an index that aims to reflect the performance of the total U.S. stock market.

    U.S. stocks haven’t performed as well in Biden’s current term as they did under Obama or Trump.


    Wilshire Indexes

    Biden and his allies could be worried about how stocks
    SPX
    are doing, and it’s possible his administration will try to help the market somehow in 2024, according to Philip Lawlor, managing director of market research at Wilshire Indexes.

    “With the 2024 election in sight, the disparity in cumulative equity return generated so far under the Biden administration compared to the superior return trajectory delivered by the Trump and Obama presidencies could cause some concern,” Lawlor wrote. “Electoral cycle logic points to the Biden administration doing its utmost to ensure that the gap closes next year.”

    Biden officially launched his re-election campaign in April, and the Democratic incumbent and his cabinet officials have traveled around the U.S. in recent months to talk up their economic policies, including measures such as the Inflation Reduction Act. 

    When asked about the stock market’s struggles earlier this year, one White House official told MarketWatch that the administration wants to see “strong performance,” but he also noted that roughly half of Americans don’t hold stocks and highlighted other economic indicators.

    “The markets are going to go up and down. The main measure that the president has about the state of the economy is, how are middle-class families doing?” said Bharat Ramamurti, deputy director of the White House’s National Economic Council.

    “Do they have good-paying jobs that allow them to support themselves and their families? Are they seeing their wages go up? Do they feel like they have good opportunities to advance in their career, good opportunities to switch jobs and make more money? Or live in a better neighborhood, or whatever the case may be? By those metrics, we think that the economy is doing very, very well.”

    Republican presidential hopefuls made their economic pitches at a debate on Wednesday night in Milwaukee, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is currently running second in GOP primary polls, saying the country “must reverse ‘Bidenomics’ so that middle-class families have a chance to succeed again.” Trump, the current frontrunner in the 2024 primary, skipped the debate and instead released an interview just before the event kicked off.

    Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics give Biden a 35% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, while Trump is at 27% and DeSantis is at 6%.

    Stocks
    DJIA

    COMP
    were higher in choppy trading Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the central bank may need to raise interest rates even higher to temper a strong U.S. economy and quell inflation, while assuring investors that the Fed would proceed cautiously.

    From MarketWatch’s archives (Dec. 31, 2022): U.S. stocks log their worst year since 2008, crushed by Fed’s rate hikes

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  • Donald Trump’s mug shot, the new face of American political scandal

    Donald Trump’s mug shot, the new face of American political scandal

    Former President Donald Trump has been charged with a litany of crimes over the past several months, but his status as defendant-in-chief has now been immortalized by a mug shot. 

    For those who believe Trump broke the law by arranging hush-money payments to a porn star, stealing classified documents, instigating a riot and trying to steal the 2020 election, the photo serves as a symbol of his criminal behavior. To the people who see Trump as the victim of politically-motivated prosecutions, the image signals that the nation’s legal system has been compromised by partisanship. 

    Either way, Trump’s mug shot marks a new era for American political scandal.   

    Read more: Trump surrenders, is booked in Georgia election-interference case

    Of course, Trump joins a long list of American politicians who have found themselves facing prosecution.

    From the founding of the republic to the current day, politicians being accused of wrongdoing has been an American tradition. The scope of cases runs across the political spectrum and the charges have ranged from sex scandals to bribery.

    Trump’s summer of scandal began in New York, where Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg charged him with campaign-finance violations, claiming the former president made hush-money payments to a porn star and Playboy bunny to bury their stories of having had affairs with him. He was then hit with federal charges of illegally withholding classified documents at his Florida mansion after leaving office and for illegally working to disrupt the formal counting of the votes in Congress that confirmed his loss in the 2020 election.

    But it took until Trump’s fourth indictment on state charges in Georgia, alleging that he and 18 others conspired to illegally overturn the 2020 election in which he narrowly lost the state to Biden, for a mugshot to formally appear.

    Here’s a list of some recent, well-known politicians who have been arrested:

    Rod Blagojevich 

    (U.S. Marshals Service)

    Blagojevich served as the Democratic governor of Illinois from 2003 until 2009 when he was arrested, impeached and eventually sentenced to 14 years in prison for corruption.

    The case revolved around a “pay-for-play” scandal in which Blagojevich solicited a bribe in return for appointing someone to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama after he’d been elected president.

    Blagojevich was released in 2020 after Trump commuted his sentence.

    John Edwards

    (U.S. Marshals Service)

    The former Democratic vice presidential and presidential candidate was indicted in 2011 on charges that he used campaign money to cover up an extramarital affair and to pay to support a child that was born as a result. Edwards wasn’t convicted but the revelation that he had an affair while his wife was dying of cancer ended his political career.

    Tom DeLay

    (Harris County Sheriff’s Office)

    The onetime Republican House majority leader was indicted in 2005 by a Texas grand jury on campaign-finance and money-laundering charges. He stepped down as House speaker and opted not to seek reelection the following year. He was eventually convicted and sentenced to three years in prison but had the case overturned on appeal.

    John Mitchell

    (U.S. Marshals Service)

    The U.S. attorney general under President Richard Nixon served 19 months in prison for his role in helping plan and orchestrate the break-in of the Democratic Party’s national headquarters at the Watergate Hotel. The scandal would lead to Nixon’s resignation in 1974.

    Dennis Hastert

    (Lake County Sheriff’s Office)

    The Republican speaker of the House of Representatives from 1999 until 2007 was later sentenced to 15 months in prison for sexually abusing young boys while working as a high school teacher and coach in his home state of Illinois. At the time of his conviction in 2015, Hastert was the highest-ranking U.S. politician to ever be sentenced to prison time.

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