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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER The 5-day forecast track for Hurricane Kiko as of 5 p.m. today 1 /2 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER The 5-day forecast track for Hurricane Kiko as of 5 p.m. today NOAA Hurricane Kiko is seen heading toward the Central Pacific in this satellite image from this morning.
2 /2 NOAA Hurricane Kiko is seen heading toward the Central Pacific in this satellite image from this morning.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER The 5-day forecast track for Hurricane Kiko as of 5 p.m. today NOAA Hurricane Kiko is seen heading toward the Central Pacific in this satellite image from this morning.
UPDATE : 5 :25 p.m.
Hurricane Kiko remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane this evening far out in the East Pacific as it moves west toward the Hawaii islands.
As of 5 p.m., the hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph about 1, 560 miles east-southeast of Hilo and moving west at 9 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
“This general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night, ” according to the center’s 5 p.m. update. “A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday, with a gradual increase in forward speed expected over the weekend as Kiko approaches the Hawaiian islands from the east.”
Kiko is a compact storm, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extending 80 miles.
On Monday, at the end of the current five-day forecast, forecasters expect the weakening hurricane to have maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, a Category 1 storm, as it churns a few hundred miles east of Hilo.
“By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40 percent. These factors should lead to steady and eventually rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian islands from the east, ” forecasters said.
Forecast models have the storm nearing the Big Island by Tuesday.
The National Weather Service in Honolulu said Kiko “is poised to approach the islands early next week.”
“A flash flood threat may develop over the islands in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame conditional on the exact track of the system, ” the weather service said in its long-range forecast for the state.
11 :15 a.m.
Hurricane Kiko is now a Category 4 hurricane, according to an 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
As of 11 a.m. Kiko was located about 1, 600 miles east of Hilo, moving west at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with a gradual shift towards the west-northwest at a slightly faster speed.
“A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii erodes the western portion of the subtropical ridge, ” forecasters said, “with this general motion then continuing through day 5.”
Kiko will remain over warm water and light vertical wind shear for at least the next three days, forecasters said.
“After that time, cooler (sea-surface temperatures ) and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear should lead to a faster rate of weakening, ” according to the hurricane center.
The latest five-day forecast has Kiko as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, hundreds of miles east of Hilo by Monday.
EARLIER COVERAGE Hurricane Kiko continued to intensify early today as it churned well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, with forecasters expecting it to become a major hurricane later today.
As of 5 a.m., Kiko was about 1, 665 miles east of Hilo, moving west at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds near 110 mph and higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The system is forecast to strengthen further over the next 48 hours and could reach Category 3 strength by tonight.
No coastal watches or warnings are in effect, and forecasters say it is still too early to know if Kiko will have any direct impacts on Hawaii. The storm is expected to continue on a general westward path before making a gradual turn toward the west-northwest later this week.
The National Weather Service in Honolulu said Hawaii’s current weather pattern will remain mostly stable through the weekend, with light to moderate tradewinds delivering overnight and early-morning showers to windward and mauka areas. Most leeward regions are expected to remain dry, except for scattered afternoon showers along the Kona slopes of the Big Island.
Forecasters are monitoring Kiko’s potential to send increased easterly swells toward the islands early next week, which could push surf on east-facing shores near advisory levels. A coastal flood statement remains in effect through Sunday due to peak monthly high tides and elevated water levels along low-lying areas.
The coastal flood statement is in effect for all Hawaiian islands through Sunday afternoon due to peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle. While the flooding is expected to be minor, forecasters warn that low-lying shoreline areas, coastal roads, docks, boat ramps and other infrastructure may see brief inundation during the daily afternoon high tides.
Residents and visitors are urged to avoid driving through flooded roadways, secure boats and canoes, and move electronics, vehicles and other valuables to higher ground. Officials also encourage monitoring vessels to ensure mooring lines don’t get too tight and watch for potential overwash around boat ramps.
The impacts could include flooding of normally dry beaches, minor coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion into some vulnerable areas.
Marine conditions are otherwise expected to remain moderate, with tradewinds producing generally manageable seas and background swells along north-and south-facing shores.
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