The National Association of REALTORS® has launched a new Influencer Program to engage and amplify the voices of high-profile industry members. The Influencer Program replaces NAR’s former Surrogate Program.
“Through member feedback, we heard a call for a program title that better reflects what our influencers do day in and day out,” Bennett Richardson, NAR’s chief marketing and communications officer, said in a press release. “The NAR Influencer Program more clearly describes the roles and responsibilities of being an influencer — being a trusted voice to elevate Realtors, share timely, consumer-friendly information and help shape conversations about real estate in communities nationwide.”
Through the Influencer Program, NAR supports influencers with weekly newsletters, curated social media content, industry talking points and quarterly conference calls.
“The name is new, but the mission is the same: make it easy for members to stay informed and engage with confidence,” Richardson added.
Despite a 5.5 million increase in the number of potential buyers who would qualify for a mortgage compared to a year ago, pending home sales in January were roughly flat month over month and year over year, the National Association of REALTORS® said, citing its Pending Home Sales Report.
Sales were down 0.8% month over month and 0.4% year over year. The increase in newly qualifying borrowers comes from the slow but steady decrease in mortgage rates over the last year, which are approaching 6%, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said.
“Most newly qualifying households do not act immediately, but based on past experience, about 10% could enter the market — potentially adding roughly 550,000 new homebuyers this year compared with last year,” Yun said. “Unless housing supply increases, these additional potential buyers becoming active in the market could simply push up home prices. This will put increasing pressure on affordability, which is why it is critical to increase supply by building more homes.”
By region, month-over-month pending home sales rose in the Midwest and West and declined in the Northeast and South. Year-over-year pending home sales rose in the South and West and declined in the Northeast and Midwest.
While the topline national numbers were down slightly, several metro areas saw healthy annual gains, including Phoenix (up 11.8%), Boston (10.7%) and Miami (6.8%).
Hale retired on Jan. 31 after 37 years as president and CEO. He first joined HAR leadership in 1996 and was a founder of HAR.com alongside Galvan, who has served as executive vice president of the organization since 1998.
Galvan is a certified public accountant with a degree from the University of Texas at Austin. He was named on the Swanepoel 200 Watchlist and serves on boards including the American Society of Association Executives, the Finance Committee of the National Association of REALTORS® and the Public Policy Committee of Texas REALTORS®.
“As president and CEO, my priority is to continue strengthening our services, tools and support that our 50,000 members rely on in this rapidly changing real estate environment,” Galvan said in a press release.
Hale was named CEO Emeritus, an honorary title that recognizes exceptional service for former officers.
“This organization has been my life’s work,” Hale said. “I am proud of what we’ve built together and confident that HAR is in excellent hands with René Galvan as president and CEO.”
After a year of big moves for Compass, Chairman and CEO Robert Reffkin retained his position as the No. 1 most powerful person in real estate, according to the annual Swanepoel Power 200 from T3 Sixty.
Jeremy Wacksman, CEO of Zillow Group, ranked No. 2, following a profitable year for the real estate portal. T3 Sixty also noted Wacksman’s ongoing battle with Compass over exclusive listings.
No. 3 on the list was Rocket Companies CEO Varun Krishna, who oversaw the group’s acquisition of Redfin in July; followed by eXp World Holdings Founder and CEO Glenn Sanford at No. 4 and Anywhere Real Estate President and CEO Ryan Schneider at No. 5.
Also in the top 10 were Andy Florance, founder and CEO of CoStar Group at No. 6; Chris Kelly, president and CEO of HomeServices of America at No. 7; Howard “Hoby” Hanna IV, CEO of Hanna Holdings at No. 8; Nykia Wright, CEO of the National Association of REALTORS® at No. 9; and Leo Pareja, CEO of eXp Realty at No. 10.
Anne Hartnett Hi, I’m Anne Hartnett with Agent Publishing. Today we’re taking a closer look at what the 2026 housing market may actually look like based on the latest forecasts coming from across the industry. I’m joined today by Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Gardner Economics, to break down where those predictions align, where they differ, and what they really mean to real estate professionals heading into 2026. Thanks for joining me today, Matthew.
Matthew Gardner You are welcome, and good to see you again.
Hartnett Almost every forecast agrees more homes will sell in 2026. The disagreement isn’t if — it’s how fast. What’s driving that range of optimism and what ultimately determines how quickly transaction volumes will actually return?
Gardner That’s a great question, and to be honest with you, it couldn’t really get any worse. The last couple of years, sales have been really remarkably, remarkably low. So why are we going to see a change in that? Well, there’s a couple of reasons, one of which is I expect to see inventory levels rise a bit more. Therefore, there’s going to be more choice in the marketplace. That obviously is a good thing. But more importantly, I think, is that I expect that home sellers, they’re going to start becoming a little bit more, shall we say, realistic when it comes to the value of their homes. So if you start seeing some lower asking prices, well, naturally you can have home buyers or potential buyers watching, and I think we’re going to see increased sales because of that. But I also see there’s one other driver that no one’s really talking about. And that is going to come in the form of who I call “fence sitters.” Now, these are would-be buyers, and they’ve been waiting on the sidelines. And quite frankly, they’ve been waiting for one thing to happen, and that’s a housing market that’s going to collapse, and therefore they could pick up a home remarkably cheaply. Well, I think they’re now saying, well, maybe they know that’s not going to happen and the market’s not going to implode. And because of that I think they’re going to start getting more active in the marketplace as well. So when you combine greater inventory but more importantly greater demand, that means I expect to see a decent but not huge jump in the number of sales in 2026 over 2025 levels.
Hartnett The industry agrees prices will hold, not surge, signaling balance, not distress. Is 2026 the year we finally stop talking about price acceleration and start talking about price normalization?
Gardner I’m not sure that 2026 will be best described as balanced. Because I think there’s going to be plenty of markets where affordability is still going to be a very significant issue. And there are also others where we haven’t seen price drops, quite frankly, bottom out. That said, I certainly see prices being able to rise nationally a little bit more. Yes, it’ll be somewhat modest growth, and the reasons for that are going to be somewhat similar for the reasons that I expect sales to increase. Greater confidence in the marketplace will be one. We’re also seeing modestly lower borrowing costs and improving affordability in certain markets, but mainly it’ll be improving affordability because asking prices are quite likely to pull back a little bit further. And price growth also, it will go up a bit nationally, but it’s going to vary fairly significantly by region. And I expect that home prices in the Midwest, which is classically more affordable than the rest of the country, I think they can raise quite nicely, but they’ll be very modest gains in the northeast and in the south, while out west, where prices actually declined in 2025, I see them turning modestly positive in 2026. So the bottom line here, as far as I see it, is that incomes will be rising, likely a little bit faster than home prices. That’s good for affordability, but I think it’s going to take several years of this trend of very low price growth and far higher wage growth. Before we can say that the market is even close to being normal. I just don’t see that happening for quite some time. And because of that, I think it’s still going to be a fairly hard environment for all those would-be first-time buyers out there.
Hartnett Most organizations are predicting rates in the low- to mid-6% range. Matthew, you predict the lowest rate of 5.9% by Q4 2026. What’s driving that outlook and what would need to happen for rates to move meaningfully lower or higher?
Gardner Well, the primary reason that I think the rates can drop from where they are today is that although I don’t see bond yields moving much, and as we all know, mortgage rates are based on the yield on ten-year treasuries. But what we have seen is the spread between ten-year paper and mortgage rates tighten and really kind of start heading back closer to the historic average the spread was between them — that 1.8%, 1.9%. So what that means is we could actually see bond yields not move very much at all. But mortgage rates can come down if that spread continues to narrow. So yes, I think that we could likely — not guaranteed — possibly getting just marginally below 6% by the end of 2026. Now, what it would take to move significantly below that? Well, I mean, I’d be careful what I wish for. And the reason I say that is that if rates are going to drop down or could drop down into, let’s say, the mid- or low-fives, well, it would likely mean we are already in a very significant economic contraction, AKA a recession. So be careful what you wish for. On the other side of the equation, rates moving palpably higher — I really don’t see any reason for that to happen. It certainly could, and it would have to be because yields on treasuries have jumped, and that would only come from one reason and one reason alone. And that is a lack of belief in U.S. debt. I’m hopeful that that will not be the case. So because of all these factors, yes, I think modestly lower rates. Yes, I think we can get into the high fives. But I certainly do not expect rates to move significantly higher from where they are today.
Hartnett NAR stands out with a forecast of 14% sales growth, roughly double what many portals and economists are predicting. Why is NAR so much more optimistic on transaction volume, and do you think that optimism is warranted?
Hartnett Oh, I do like Laurence [Yun], however, and I say that chief economist, a nice guy. But, I really, quite frankly, don’t share his optimism. Now, it is interesting, though. I mean, most of us are looking in that 2% to 4% growth. I’m a bit more bullish than that, but no one’s in double digits. Now reading what he has put out, what NAR’s published, is that he’s looking at, quite frankly, the same reasons that I see sales able to rise in 2026: falling mortgage rates and higher inventory levels unlocking, in his opinion, pent-up buyer demand. But I mean, a 14% increase means to me that — rough math — we’d have to see sales transactions jump by close to 600,000 units. I admire his enthusiasm and his optimism, but I quite frankly don’t see any reason that would happen other than a very, very significant downturn in overall prices or in mortgage rates. And because I don’t expect to see that occurring, I think he’s a bit optimistic. But you know what — and as always — time will tell.
Hartnett Most forecasters offer fairly tight ranges for mortgage rates, but Compass predicted a wide band, from roughly 5.9% to 6.9%. Does that reflect increased caution, or simply a more realistic view of volatility?
Garder Well, I mean that obviously a very significant range that they’ve put out there, and I think that their position, and certainly I don’t want to talk for them, is that they’re offering really two scenarios: a bullish scenario, whereby we could see, mortgage rates drop down below 6%, or a bearish one, meaning that we could say rates jump up to, I think they said 6.9%. And they did the same thing with sales, which they forecast being somewhere from sales falling by 3.6% or rising by 4.6%. I think that what they’re looking at as far as mortgage rates go is that they’re looking at ten year treasuries, which is appropriate. They’re saying that could range from 4% to 4.8%. Therefore that means that mortgage rates will come in at that 5.9% to 6.9%. But they do give a single number, which is in essence the average of the two, so really they’re saying 6.4%, but at a very wide average. Now, if the economy slows as we talked about, are we heading to a recession? Certainly. Rates can drop because we will see a big move out of people moving money out of equities and into fixed income, into bonds. That means the bond price goes up and the yield comes down. So that could happen, but if rates are rising under that scenario that he’s suggesting, is that we could see potentially if the market is going to be better, or the economy is going to be better, meaning we’re seeing more robust employment growth but also we’re seeing inflation moving potentially back up from where it is today. Well, that means likely the Fed would start to jump in. They would possibly look to increase the Fed funds rate. And as much as the Federal Reserve do not control interest rates, they can certainly have a — they can form a direction for them. They can impact them to a degree. So I think that that is a big range, certainly, but I’m looking at it on both sides of the coin, right? Good market or a bad market. But I wouldn’t say that it is more realistic, because I do not expect to see a lot of volatility in rates in 2026. In fact, in 2025, we saw the lowest volatility levels, as in, the annual high and low of rates, we’ve seen in many years. So less volatile. I think they’re just looking at, it could be this, but it could be that.
Hartnett Matthew, your optimistic forecast combines three things we don’t often see together: rising sales, improving affordability and moderate price growth. What makes that combination possible in 2026, and what would need to go wrong for that outlook to change?
Gardner Well, yes, I certainly, when it comes to the U.S. housing market I am, for want of a better word, a glass-half-full economist. Well, I mean, as we discussed, my forecasts, other than for rates to fall a bit more than others expect, I’m not really far adrift from the consensus. Sales in 2023 and 2024 weren’t only disappointing, but they were well below the average levels we’ve seen from, you know, a 20 year period from 1989 to 2019. Sales over the last two years were below the number that we saw during the financial crisis. So can we get better? Well, it’s very hard to get worse. But the biggest thing is that the big numbers, the huge levels of sales we saw in 2020, certainly in 2021, that pulled a lot of demand forward. And of course, rates jumped in 2022, which, when you think about it, if you’ve got less demand because people had already bought, you’ve also seen mortgage rates doubling, that’s going to slow the market down even further. That caused a drag on sales. I think we’re over that now and we’re starting or continuing to create new households again. I think we’ve got a market out there that is now saying, well, I was hoping for rates to drop back down to 5 or 4% again. I know that’s not going to happen. Therefore, I’m going to buy now because for a lot of people, quite frankly, even if we see a very modest increase in sale prices, there’s going to be a share of people that if they don’t buy now, they won’t be able to afford to buy later on. So I think there’s going to be better demand. So we can see rising sales because of better demand. Moderate price growth — well, we can see modest price growth even though there are some issues with affordability, because the affordability concern comes very much — and it’s very much centered around — first-time buyers. You see, for us that have owned our homes for a reasonable length of time, we’ve made a bunch of money on it and affordability is less of an issue. But the affordability improving can come from lower asking prices. So I think you can actually see sales rising, modest price growth and affordability improving. But again, it’s going to be very much geographically defined. But those things can happen, and I believe that they will.
What would need to go wrong for my outlook to change? Yes, it would have to be rates for some reason or other jumping up. I find that remarkably unlikely. I don’t think that would happen. Price growth jumping to a point whereby affordability declines further? I don’t see that happening either. So I think all in all, modest improvement across the board is one that is the most likely scenario. But of course, who knows what might come around the corner. Certainly, I think that comments being made by the administration could have an impact on the equity markets and on the global markets as well, so not sure about that. We’ve obviously got a new fed chair coming in. We don’t know who it is, although I’ve got a pretty good guess. And so there’s going to be some concerns there as to whether the Fed will continue to be independent. That can have an issue on financial markets as well. So there are some geopolitical potential hiccups out there, but but in general, I believe that as long as we do not head into any form of major economic downturn, slow and steady is the way.
Hartnett All right Matthew, to wrap this up, if you had to describe the 2026 housing market in one word, what would it be and why?
Gardner I would say clarity. Yes, clarity. And why would I say that? I think that there’s a lot of uncertainty, really, quite frankly, going through Covid, coming out of Covid. We weren’t sure what was going to be happening. We saw rates plummet. Wonderful. But then they skyrocketed. Not good. People out there saying, isn’t this 2008 all over again? So I think that, yeah, I think that the market will be less opaque, in 2026. We’ll see some more clarity. And again, for people understanding the fact that for 98% of us, buying a home is the most expensive thing we ever buy in our lives, but if we’re making that decision, we want to be sure about it. So I think we’ll see more clarity and clarity will allow, I believe, prices to rise, transactions to rise. Not to the levels that I’m sure brokers would like, but they will be better in 2026 than 2025 because there will be, from a buyer’s perspective and indeed from a seller’s perspective, more clarity in the U.S. housing market.
Hartnett All right, Matthew, thanks for breaking this down. And for all our sakes, fingers crossed that your predictions, your optimistic predictions, come true.
Gardner I’m always helpful — hopeful, as well as helpful. But I appreciate that, Anne, and everyone out there have a great new year. Take care.
Michael Nourmand isn’t tossing and turning over new rules stemming from the National Association of Realtors’ lawsuit settlement.
Still, the president of the family-owned Beverly Hills brokerage Nourmand & Associates made a big move last week in what he thinks will keep the business ahead of the August rules implementation: displaying buyer agent compensation for all listings on his firm’s website.
“I want to make it easy for buyers’ agents to see what they’re getting paid,” Nourmand said. “They don’t have to ask the question. It will save my agents time because they don’t have to answer that question.”
He also sees the website update as a potential traffic driver. He explained that “we’re in an attention economy” where more clicks can translate to web monetization for the nearly 50-year-old firm, which also counts offices in Brentwood and Hollywood.
As of Aug. 17, brokers will no longer be able to negotiate buyer agent commissions through the MLS. Buyers will also be required to sign agreements with their agents before they begin working together.
The new rules are the result of the $418 million settlement reached in a class action lawsuit against NAR that’s led to uncertainty for some. For Nourmand, he doesn’t see much changing. Instead, he thinks talk of an industry shakeup around commissions has been driven by a one-sided view.
He cited a recent hotsheet of single-family homes running from roughly Echo Park to Pacific Palisades as an example. Out of 112 listings, one did not offer buyer compensation. Nourmand sees this trend continuing post-Aug. 17.
“All of the [settlement headlines] were ‘This is the end of real estate agents,’ ‘They’re all going to be out of the business,’ ‘The compression is going to be unbearable,’ ‘The fee structure in all these other countries is so low,’” he said. “And my whole thing was like, wait, wait, wait, hold on. You’re telling me people in L.A. didn’t know that they could negotiate their fees?”
Negotiations have been part of the homebuying process in the past and will continue post-rule implementation in a market where Nourmand argued many buyers in the higher price segment have long had access to financial advisors, business managers, lawyers and other resources to know their options about commission negotiations.
He went on to add the mushrooming of reality TV shows focused on residential real estate agents can be partly to blame for some of the negative perceptions or misconceptions placed on the profession.
“America sees four agents that are getting a lot of promotion on TV and eating at fancy restaurants, driving expensive cars and it’s truncating the process,” he said. “I’m trying to get a listing right now. I’ve been talking to this lady for over a year. They don’t show that on reality TV.”
Nourmand would agree the industry appearance of glamor on reality shows isn’t necessarily a bad effect. However, these shows offer the experiences of the 1 percent, he said.
“The flip side of it is that [viewers] think we’re a bunch of overcompensated [people], living the life, eating at expensive restaurants, flying on private jets with clients,” he said. “The truth is most agents are grinding it out in the U.S. making $50,000 or $60,000 a year trying to make ends meet.”
If anything, networks and streaming services will at least have a new villain to cast in future seasons, Nourmand suggested.
“This NAR settlement has primetime TV written all over it,” he said. The consumer is dying to hear all of the rough conversations that are going to happen over the NAR settlement. They’re already filming, I’m sure, sellers saying, ‘I’m not paying an agent,’ ‘I’m not doing this,’ ‘I’m not doing that.’ And I think Bravo is going to give exactly what the consumer wants on TV.”
Read more
“A lot of unanswered questions”: Texas agents on the NAR settlement
NAR settlement changes could challenge newer buyer agents in Chicago
The winners and losers in NAR’s historic settlement
Ohio just became the 24th recreational legal state and over 50% of the country live where you can got to a dispensary and buy a pre-roll, gummies, etc. States with legal weed benefit greatly from tax revenue, usually more than alcohol review and crime doesn’t increase. But what about legal marijuana and property values?
On average, in states where recreational marijuana is legal, cities with retail dispensaries saw home values increase $22,888 more than cities where marijuana is illegal from 2014 to 2019 according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
In general, states with full legalization are also states with a younger population and a larger industry bases, attracting a more broadminded population. Also, a Gallup poll suggested household with over $100,000 income are most likely to support legalization.
Photo by Kindel Media from Pexels
There are downsides in the home real estate market for cannabis users. Like tobacco, weed can leave an oder in a home which can directly affect selling/leasing a property. A survey by NAR released in April of 2023 discovered in states where medical marijuana is legal and roughly two-fifths of members in states where both medical and recreational marijuana are legal had no issues leasing a property after the use of marijuana in a property (similar to 2021). When there were issues, the most common issue was the smell, which 30 to 35 percent of these members had encountered.
With commercial real estate, there is also interesting data. States where medical and recreational marijuana use is legal, there has been an increased demand in warehouses and storefronts. There is also an increase in property purchasing over leasing in the past year, the majority have seen the increases with warehouses, followed by land, and storefronts.
Another study shows residential property values in legal states outpaced those which still ban marijuana by $48,983 over the past decade. This recently released research is from Real Estate Witch, an online publication owned by Clever Real Estate.
A series of court challenges seek to upend longstanding real estate industry practices that determine the commissions agents receive on the sale of a home — and who foots the bill.
A federal jury in one of those cases on Tuesday ordered the National Association of Realtors along with some of the nation’s biggest real estate brokerages to pay almost $1.8 billion in damages, after finding they artificially inflated commissions paid to real estate agents.
The class-action lawsuit was filed in 2019 on behalf of 500,000 home sellers in Missouri and some border towns. The verdict stated that the defendants “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
If treble damages — which allows plaintiffs to potentially receive up to three times actual or compensatory damages — are awarded, then the defendants may have to pay more than $5 billion.
“This matter is not close to being final as we will appeal the jury’s verdict,” Mantill Williams, a spokesman for the NAR, said in a statement. “In the interim, we will ask the court to reduce the damages awarded by the jury.”
Williams said it will likely be several years before the case is resolved.
But already the NAR and several real estate brokerages are facing another lawsuit over agent commission rules. Fresh off winning the verdict in the 2019 case, the lawyers filed a new class-action lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Missouri that seeks class-action status covering anyone in the U.S. who sold a home in the last five years. It names the trade association and seven brokerage companies, including Redfin Corp., Weichert Realtors and Compass Inc.
“What’s at issue nationwide is costing Americans about $60 billion in extra real estate commissions,” said Michael Ketchmark, one of the attorneys representing the plaintiffs in the lawsuits.
The focus of the lawsuits is an NAR rule that requires that home sellers offer to pay the commission for the agent representing the homebuyer when they advertise their property on a local Multiple Listings Service, where a majority of U.S. homes are listed for sale. This is in addition to also having to cover the commission for their listing agent or broker.
The NAR’s rules also prohibit a buyer’s agent from making home purchase offers contingent on the reduction of their commission, according to the complaint.
“Defendants’ conspiracy forces home sellers to pay a cost that, in a competitive market and were it not for defendants’ anticompetitive restraint, would be paid by the buyer,” the plaintiffs argued in the lawsuit filed Tuesday.
Plaintiffs also claim that the NAR requirement effectively keeps commissions for a homebuyer’s agent artificially high.
If NAR’s “Mandatory Offer of Compensation Rule” were not in place, then homebuyers would foot the bill for their agent’s commission, which would open the door for competition — and lower commissions — among agents vying to represent a homebuyer, the plaintiffs contend.
The NAR argues that the practice of listing brokers making offers of compensation to buyer brokers is best for consumers.
“It gives the greatest number of buyers a chance to afford a home and professional representation, while also giving sellers access to the greatest number of buyers,” Williams said.
The NAR spokesman also noted that the trade association’s policies have always required that an offer of agent compensation be made without specifying an amount, adding that it could be as little as $1 or even a penny.
In July, the independent Bright MLS, which covers some states in the eastern part of the country, changed the rules so that it’s OK for a home listed in that region’s MLS to not include an offer of agent compensation at all. That still falls within NAR’s guidelines.
“In addition, regardless of the offer, those offers are always negotiable,” Williams said.
As home prices have soared in recent years, pushing the national median sales price to $394,300 as of September, so have agents’ commissions.
“Today, what effectively happens is the buyer agent’s commissions are added to the sale price of the house, inflating the sale price,” said Stephen Brobeck, senior fellow at the Consumer Federation of America. “If sellers no longer had to pay the buyer agents, there wouldn’t be that inflation and buyers could negotiate the commission down and they would end up paying less money.”
Typically, the home seller pays their listing agent, who then splits the commission with the buyer’s agent according to the NAR rules. Traditionally, that works out to a 5% to 6% commission split roughly evenly between the buyer’s and seller’s agents.
Such commissions are justified, given the professionalism agents offer their clients and the hefty expenses they often incur in preparing to sell a home, including costs for staging, marketing, photography, lock boxes and even cleaning, said Matthew Shelton, a Kansas City area real estate agent.
“Never have I had a seller even bat an eye or question a commission,” he said. “If somebody takes control and limits what commissions can be charged that would be more concerning, you know, if they put a cap on anything. I don’t think that that’s accurate or correct.”
The 2019 lawsuit originally also included Anywhere Real Estate Inc. and Re/Max, but the two companies reached a settlement agreement, which included Anywhere paying $83.5 million, Re/Max paying $55 million, and the pair agreeing to pull back on their relationships with NAR.
Homebuyers and sellers aren’t likely to see any immediate change in the way agent commissions for homes listed on the MLS are typically handled, as the NAR has vowed to appeal Tuesday’s verdict.
However, the industry will be watching for what the court will do next now that the jury has spoken.
“What’s critical is how far the court orders the industry to restructure their compensation and offers,” Brobeck said. “The real solution is for buyers to be able to finance the buyer-agent commissions as part of their mortgages …. But there are regulatory barriers to that occurring right now — regulatory barriers that are strongly supported by the industry.”
In a blog post Tuesday, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman noted that it may take days or weeks for the judge to decide what structural changes the jury’s verdict will entail, and possibly years of court appeals.
“For now, the initial size of the damages alone will ensure major change,” he wrote.
Last month, Redfin announced it would mandate that its brokers and agents withdraw from NAR membership, citing partly the trade association’s requirement of a fee for the buyer’s agent on all listings.
The agent commission lawsuits aren’t the first time that the residential real estate industry has drawn scrutiny about the impact its rules have on competition.
The Justice Department filed a complaint in 2020 against the NAR, alleging it established and enforced rules and policies that illegally restrained competition in residential real estate services. The government withdrew a proposed settlement agreement in 2021, saying the move would allow it to conduct a broader investigation of NAR’s rules and conduct.
The numbers: U.S. pending home sales rebounded in September but remain near a record low as high mortgage rates and low inventory continue to hurt the real-estate sector.
Pending home sales rose 1.1% in September from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors.
But pending home sales were still depressed on an annual basis due to the dearth of home listings. The September figure was the second-lowest reading since the NAR began tracking the data in 2001.
Transactions were down 11% from last year.
Nonetheless, the sales pace exceeded expectations on Wall Street. Economists were expecting pending home sales to fall 1.5% in September.
Pending home sales reflect transactions where the contract has been signed for the sale of an existing home, but the sale has not yet closed. Economists view it as an indicator of the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.
The NAR also released an updated forecast for existing-home sales on Thursday. The group expects sales to fall 17.5% in 2023 to a pace of 4.15 million, which will be the slowest pace since 2008. Yet due to low inventory, the median home price will increase by 0.1% in 2023, the NAR said, to $386,700.
The group expects home sales to rebound in 2024, rising 13.5% to a rate of 4.71 million. Home prices are expected to rise 0.7% next year, to $389,500.
The NAR also expects the 30-year mortgage rate to fall to 6.9% in 2023 and 6.3% in 2024. The 30-year was averaging 7.98% as of Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
Big picture: The U.S. housing market is dealing with problems on both the demand and supply sides, but the NAR seems confident that the sector will recover in the new year.
At present, not only are rates high enough to discourage home buyers, the lack of inventory is also making homes more expensive, which further spooks buyers. The NAR expects the pace of existing-home sales to fall to the slowest in 15 years, when the U.S. was in the midst of a recession caused by the subprime-lending crisis.
What the realtors said: “Because of home builders’ ability to create more inventory, new-home sales could be higher this year despite increasing mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. “This underscores the importance of increased inventory in helping to get the overall housing market moving.”
With mortgage rates firmly above 7%, homeownership has become much more expensive. But will rates go even higher?
Three experts told MarketWatch that if the economy continues to show signs of strength, and the U.S. Federal Reserve hikes its benchmark interest rate once again, rates could go up to 8%.
High rates have already taken a toll on the U.S. housing market. Even home builders, who have in recent months experienced strong demand from homebuyers, are reporting a drop in buyer traffic as those rising rates rattle their customers.
But experts also stressed that the U.S. economy is showing early signs of cooling, and that the rate of inflation is easing. That could lead to a slowdown — or even a drop — in mortgage rates. But such forecasts are not a guarantee, as Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales figures suggested.
How high can rates go?
Even though the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was averaging 7.26% as of Tuesday evening, the highest level since November 2022, economists say rates could go up further.
The 30-year is “at a critical stage,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, told MarketWatch.
“If the 30-year-fixed mortgage rate can hold at a high mark of 7.2% — and the 10-year yield holds at 4.2% — then this would be the high for mortgage rates before retreating,” Yun said. “If it breaks this line and easily goes above 7.2%, then the mortgage rate reaches 8%.”
As of Tuesday afternoon, the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
was above 4.2%.
“Mortgage rates could rise significantly if global investors demand higher yields for fixed-income assets,” Cris deRitis, deputy chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told MarketWatch.
Currently, the spread between the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and a 10-year Treasury bond is around 300 basis points, which is “elevated and highly unusual,” he said.
“‘Historically, the mortgage-rate spread has only been around this level only during periods of financial crisis such as the Great Recession or the early 1980s recession.’”
— Cris deRitis, deputy chief economist at Moody’s Analytics
“Historically, the mortgage-rate spread has only been around this level only during periods of financial crisis such as the Great Recession or the early 1980s recession,” deRitis added. “The historical average is closer to 175 basis points.”
If the 10-year continues to rise — and the U.S. Federal Reserve chooses to interest rates once again — it could go beyond 5%. If the spread stays elevated at 300 basis points, deRitis added, “a mortgage rate of 8% or more is a distinct possibility in the near term.”
Consumers seem to be prepared for 8% rates. In February, households surveyed by the New York Federal Reserve as part of its Survey of Consumer Expectations, found that they expect mortgage rates to rise to 8.4% by the following year, and 8.8% in three years’ time. Yet few saw the moment as an opportunity to buy.
To be clear, rates have been far higher in the past. In 1981, the 30-year mortgage rate went up to 18%, according to Freddie Mac FMCC, +31.97%.
That year, the rate of inflation was 10.3%, according to the Minneapolis Fed.
“So in theory, mortgage rates can go up as much,” Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic, told MarketWatch. “But I don’t think they’re gonna go much beyond where they are right now.”
If the 30-year mortgage interest rate reached 8%, there would be serious consequences for the housing market, Yun said. “At 8%, the housing market will re-freeze, with fewer buyers and far fewer sellers,” he added.
But don’t expect high rates to hurt home prices just yet, Yun added: “As long as the job market doesn’t turn negative, then home prices will be stable — though home sales will take another step downward. If there is a job-cutting recession, then home prices will fall as some will be forced to sell while there are few buyers.”
Other experts said that high rates have already taken a toll on the U.S. housing sector. “A mortgage rate in excess of 6% has already sidelined a large number of potential homebuyers, especially first-time home buyers,” deRitis said.
He noted that the monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home at the prevailing 30-year mortgage rate has risen from close to $1,100 per month in January 2019 to over $2,100 today. “At 8%, the monthly payment would rise to over $2,300, excluding an even larger number of potential buyers with above-average incomes,” deRitis added.
High rates also discourage homeowners from selling, since they may have to surrender an ultra-low mortgage with a low monthly payment for a high rate. They may end up with a smaller budget to purchase a home, or worse, not find any listings at all, given an ongoing inventory crunch.
With high rates, many home buyers may be priced out of the market. Yet some buyers — particularly baby boomers — who have the means to put in all-cash offers on homes are keeping home prices elevated, Hepp said.
So who would be able to buy and sell? Cash buyers. “They tend to be older people like baby boomers who own their homes free and clear,” she added. “If they live in more expensive areas, like anywhere in California, they can sell their home and walk away with in excess of $500,000. And that in some markets buys them two homes.”
deRitis said that the ultimate fate of home prices falls on the strength of the job market. Even though rates are high for now, home prices may not fall significantly, as some buyers can still purchase homes with cash, he added.
But “if the labor market should weaken and unemployment rise, home foreclosures would rise,” deRitis added, “placing downward pressure on home prices.”
“So the housing market is definitely suffering from high rates,” Hepp said. “But I think even higher rates would be pretty devastating for the housing market.”
The numbers: Home sales inched up for the first time in four months, even as the U.S. housing market continues to deal with a dearth of listings.
Pending home sales rose by 0.3% in June from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors.
The figure exceeded expectations on Wall Street. Economists were expecting pending home sales to fall 0.5% in June.
Transactions were still down 15.6% from last year.
Pending home sales reflect transactions where a contract has been signed for the sale of an existing home but the sale has not yet closed. Economists view it as an indicator of the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.
Big picture: Home sales rose as the housing market contends with excess buyer demand and a shortfall in the supply of homes for sale.
What the real-estate experts said: “The recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said. “The presence of multiple offers implies that housing demand is not being satisfied due to lack of supply.”
The NAR also said it expects rates for 30-year mortgages to average 6.4% this year and to fall to 6% in 2024.
The NAR also expects existing-home sales to fall 12.9% in 2023 from the previous year, to 4.38 million, before recovering in 2024 to a rate of 5.06 million.
The group also expects home prices to hold steady this year, falling only slightly by 0.4% to $384,900, before rising 2.6% next year to $395,000.
“The West — the country’s most expensive region — will see reduced prices, while the more affordable Midwest region is likely to see a small positive increase,” Yun added.
The numbers: U.S. pending-home sales rose 2.5% in December, reversing a six-month losing streak, according to the monthly index released Friday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Pending home sales were down for six months in a row, as the U.S. Federal Reserve increased interest rates and mortgage rates took off.
Pending-home sales beat analyst expectations. Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the pending home sales index to drop by 1%.
Contract signings rose in the South and the West.
Pending home sales reflect transactions where the contract has been signed for an existing-home sale, but the sale has not yet closed.
Economists view it as an indicator for the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.
Mortgage application activity hints at the housing market’s further recovery. Mortgage demand rose in the latest week.
Key details: Compared with a year earlier, transactions were down by 33.8%.
On a monthly basis, pending sales rose in the South and the West. Sales dropped in the Northeast and Midwest.
Pending home sales fell the most since last December in the West, by 37.5%.
Big picture: A dip in rates has boosted demand for mortgages. Buyers are coming back to the market, and the housing market is slowly recovering. But inventory remains low, as sellers hold out. Many are looking to the spring to see if sellers are motivated to list their homes.
What the realtors said: “This recent low point in home sales activity is likely over,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. “Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales, and recent declines in rates are clearly helping to stabilize the market.”
Yun expects mortgage rates to hover between the 5.5% and 6.5% range.
He also expects the South to outperform in terms of sales, since the job market is stronger in the region.
What they’re saying: “Home sales have now largely adjusted to the collapse in demand since late 2021. … [but] a sustained recovery likely remains a long way off,” Kieran Clancy, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note.
“The downturn in sales is coming to an end, but the decline in home prices is only just getting underway,” he added. He expects home prices to fall 15% over the next year.
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.08%
and the S&P 500 SPX, +0.25%
were mixed in early trading on Friday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.511%
rose above 3.5%.
New York, USA, October 31, 2016 (Newswire.com)
– According to Punctuated Publishing, if your real estate agent won’t meet you at a property before conducting an initial in-office consultation, or won’t lead the way down to a house’s basement, don’t take it personally. Recent violence against real estate agents is changing the ways REALTORS® do business, and two new murder mystery novels, actually written by REALTOR®/authors, are underscoring the industry’s inherent dangers in a more subtle and entertaining fashion than recent horrific newspaper headlines.
Much of the focus on dangers facing real estate agents was instigated by the murder of Arkansas-based REALTOR® Beverly Carter back in 2014. That’s what inspired Bernice Gottlieb, an associate broker with William Raveis Legends Realty Group in Irvington, NY, to pen her somber murder mystery, Havoc-on-Hudson. In her author’s note, citing the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics, Gottlieb says an average of 70 to 80 reported incidents of rape, robbery and homicide take place each year with real estate professionals. Moreover, since 2008, the number of real estate homicides nationwide exceeded those of police officers killed in the line of duty in that same period, she said.
“An average of 70 to 80 reported incidents of rape, robbery and homicide take place each year with real estate professionals,”
Bernice Gottlieb, Associate Broker, William Raveis Legends Realty Group
Expired Listings, a second, more satiric and kinky real estate murder mystery, was published this past September. Its author, Dawn M. Barclay, an associate broker for Keller Williams Hudson Valley Realty writing as D.M. Barr, says she completed the book’s outline long before Carter was murdered, specifically “as a warning to my fellow agents because I realized the risks inherent in this industry when I first become a REALTOR® back in 1999.” She voices those concerns in the following quote between a fictional agency owner and the detective investigating the ‘Realtor Retaliator’ serial killer in her novel: “Most agents are women, usually very attractive women. We post glamour shots on our signs and business cards and then list every possible way to reach us. Then, how’s this for brilliant, we advertise that we’re going to be alone in an empty house for hours on a Sunday afternoon. We have strangers join us in our cars, or we ride in theirs. We eat food at open houses supplied by God knows who. If we’re not asking for trouble, then I don’t know who is.”
With both actual and fictional dangers highlighting the vulnerabilities of real estate agents, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has published a number of safety guidelines for its 1,500,000+ members. In addition, in an award-winning, consumer-based video titled, “Real Estate Safety and You,” NAR explains to property buyers how agents might interact differently with them than they have in the past. Such precautions include:
· Agents initially meeting new clients at their office, not at properties for sale
· Agents requesting to see identification (Driver’s License) and mortgage prequalification letters at first meet
· Agents driving separately from buyers to see properties (which is also more convenient if one or both parties have appointments directly afterwards.)
· Agent walking behind buyers at showings, and allowing buyers to inspect attics, basements and garages on their own
· Agents only showing vacant houses during daylight hours
· Buyers required to sign in and show identification at Open Houses, which may be staffed by more than one agent. (In fact, Barclay indicates that instead of traditional Open Houses, she hosts ‘Traveling Home Shows,’ where buyers meet several vendors, such as interior decorators, lawyers, contractors, etc., ensuring her safety along with a one-stop shopping experience for buyers.)
As both Gottlieb and Barclay are well aware, real estate violence is far more palatable in thriller novels than in their day-to-day business routines. By educating the public as to why new safety precautions have been put in place, both real estate agents and their clients can enjoy a more pleasurable and safe buying and selling experience.
Havoc-on-Hudson is available at Amazon or other fine book retailers.
