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  • Trump’s tax returns are now public after long fight with Congress

    Trump’s tax returns are now public after long fight with Congress

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    The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee released six years of former President Donald Trump’s tax returns on Friday.

    Experts will be looking closely at large business losses reported by Trump that significantly reduced his tax liability. For instance, he paid no federal taxes in 2020.

    “Trump paid miniscule income taxes in 2015-2020, and almost no income taxes for the prior three decades,” said Steve Rosenthal, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center in Washington, in an email.

    “We also have learned that, in the 1990s and 2000s, Trump claimed business losses of tens and sometimes hundreds of millions annually. I studied these a few years ago and found some real, and some fake,” he added.

    “It is still early to determine how much of Trump’s most recent losses were real or fake,” Rosenthal said.

    Read: Trump paid $0 taxes in 2020. He’s not alone

    Analysts are also going to pore over the documents for any details of Trump’s foreign business dealings.

    Some certified public accountants who looked at the documents say the returns show that the U.S. tax system has been written to “incentivize” real estate investing.

    Bottom line: In order to generate these kinds of losses, you need to be super rich. It’s not a poor man’s game,” said Jonathan Medows, managing member of Medows CPA PLLC in New York.

    Read: CPAs have questions about Trump’s tax returns

    David Cay Johnston, a Pulitzer Prize winning author and longtime Trump critic, in a post on his non-profit news organization DC Report, called the former president’s tax returns “a rich environment in which questionable conduct is found throughout the filings and needs only seasoned auditors to uncover fictional expenditures.”

    He said that Trump was warned by two New York state judges in trials about his 1984 taxes not to deduct huge expenses in businesses with no revenue.

    “That Trump persisted in using the same fraudulent technique in six years of recent tax returns is powerful evidence of criminal intent,” Johnston wrote.

    In a statement, Trump said his returns show “how I have been able to use depreciation and various other tax deductions as an incentive for creating thousands of jobs.”

    Key words: Trump on release of his tax returns

    Some experts said they were going to look at the returns for details about Trump’s foreign sources of income. The documents show that Trump had foreign bank accounts while he was president.

    See: What could be learned from Trump’s tax returns

    Democrats on the Ways and Means Committee said they voted to release the Trump tax returns to help improve the tax laws. Republicans warned that the release would set a precedent where political parties routinely release the tax returns of their opponents.

    Another question is why the Internal Revenue Service failed to audit Trump’s tax returns as it routinely does for U.S. presidents.

    See: Trump taxes could rev up fight over IRS funding

    On Jan. 3, Republicans will take control of the House along with the tax-writing committee.

    Rep. Don Beyer, a Democrat from Virginia who is a member of the Ways and Means Committee, said the Trump tax returns “underscore the fact that our tax laws are often inequitable and that enforcement of them is often unjust.”

    Rep. Kevin Brady, the Republican from Texas who was the minority leader of the Ways and Means panel and is leaving Congress in January, said Democrats did not release the Trump tax records for any legislative purpose but wanted to “unleash a dangerous new political weapon” at the former president.

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  • U.S. stocks close sharply higher in year-end rally after jobless claims data deemed ‘welcome news for the Fed’

    U.S. stocks close sharply higher in year-end rally after jobless claims data deemed ‘welcome news for the Fed’

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    U.S. stock indexes finished sharply higher on Thursday, the second-to-last trading session of the year, with the Nasdaq Composite jumping 2.6%, erasing losses from earlier in the week.

    The three main indexes built on premarket gains after U.S. weekly jobless claims data showed the number of workers receiving benefits has climbed to the highest level since February, a tentative sign that the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes might be slowing economic growth and inflation.

    How stocks traded
    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      +1.75%

      rose 66.06 points, or 1.8%, to end at 3,849.28.

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      +1.05%

      added 345.09 points, or 1.1%, finishing at 33,220.80.

    • Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      +2.59%

      climbed 264.80 points, or 2.6%, to finish at 10,478.09.

    On Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.4% to 10,213, its lowest closing level of the year. The S&P 500 is up more than 6% from its 2022 low from mid-October, but the large-cap index remains down 19.2% year-to-date, FactSet data show.

    What drove markets

    The penultimate session of 2022 showed tentative signs of delivering some much needed festive cheer for the stock market as a hope for “Santa Claus rally” had earlier failed to materialize.

    MarketWatch Live: Is that you, Santa Claus?

    Stocks advanced on Thursday as data showed the number of Americans receiving more than a single week of unemployment benefits had climbed by 41,000 last week to 1.71 million, the highest level in 10 months.

    The jobless-claims data “points to a loosening in the labor market, which is welcome news for the Fed,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, in a tweet.

    However, analysts at Citi still think the claims data indicates a still-very-tight labor markets compared to historical levels.

    “While both initial and continuing claims increased this week, they remain within the levels of late 2019,” wrote Gisela Hoxha, U.S. economics research analyst at Citi. “Anecdotes of company layoffs have increased in recent months, particularly in the tech sector. While it could be hard to disentangle the seasonal effects from the announced layoffs, in our view there is no significant evidence of them showing up in the claims data yet.”

    Some of those layoffs could be taking effect a couple months later as employees might be kept on payroll for some time after the announcement, which will become significant signs of weakness in the labor market in 2023, Hoxha added.

    See: Did 2022 break Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’? Why the VIX no longer reflects the sorry state of the stock market

    Stocks were on track to finish what’s set to be the worst year since 2008 not far from 2022 lows. The S&P 500’s 52-week closing low at 3,577.03 was hit on Oct. 12.

    Still, the three indexes managed to erase losses from earlier in the week on Thursday. Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2% this week, while the S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the Dow was nearly flat as of Thursday’s close. If the S&P 500 can hold on to weekly gains through Friday, it would mark the end of a three-week losing streak that has been the index’s longest since September, FactSet data show.

    Companies in focus
    • Tesla Inc.
      TSLA,
      +8.08%

      shares finished 8.1% higher on Thursday after posting its first rise in eight sessions Wednesday. The electric-vehicle maker’s shares had declined in seven consecutive sessions, their worst losing streak since a seven-session run that ended on Sept. 15, 2018.

    • Southwest Airlines 
      LUV,
      +3.70%

      remains in focus as the airline tries to recover from logistical issues that caused thousands of flight cancellations over the past week. The stock fell 11% over the past two days, but rose 3.7% in Thursday session.

    • General Electric’s 
      GE,
      +2.17%

      spinoff of GE HealthCare Technologies will join the S&P 500 index when it begins trading as a separate public company on Jan. 4. GE HealthCare will replace Vornado Realty Trust 
      VNO,
      +1.63%
      ,
      which will move to the S&P MidCap 400. Vornado will replace logistics company RXO
      RXO,
      +8.39%
      ,
      which will move to the S&P SmallCap 600. GE HealthCare — trading on a when-issued basis — rose 0.9%, while Vornado gained 1.6% and RXO jumped 8.4%.

    • Cal-Maine 
      CALM,
      -14.50%

      shares ended 14.5% lower after its quarterly earnings came in below Wall Street forecasts. Cal-Maine reported record sales for the quarter as an avian flu outbreak continued to limit the supply of eggs, driving prices sharply higher. The company also said there were no positive tests for avian flu at any of its production facilities, as of Wednesday.

    — Jamie Chisholm contributed to this article

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  • Did 2022 break Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’? Why the VIX no longer reflects the sorry state of the stock market

    Did 2022 break Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’? Why the VIX no longer reflects the sorry state of the stock market

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    U.S. stocks are about to cap off their worst year since 2008. But investors wouldn’t know it by glancing at what’s often referred to as Wall Street’s favorite fear gauge, which has recently failed to reach new heights as stocks tumbled to fresh lows.

    The Cboe Volatility Index
    VIX,
    -3.16%
    ,
    better known as the VIX, is on track to finish 2022 not far off its long-term average despite widespread pain across markets. The VIX, based on trading in S&P 500 index options, serves as an indicator of expected volatility in the index over the coming 30-day period.

    After topping out at 36.45 on March 7, it repeatedly failed to make new highs for the year, according to data from FactSet, even as stocks tumbled to their lowest levels in years in June and again in September and October.

    Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, highlighted the phenomenon in several research notes to his clients this year.

    Not only is the S&P 500 on track to finish the year down roughly 20%, 2022 has also been the most consistently choppy year for stocks in more than a decade by at least one measure.

    The index has recorded 46 moves of 2% in either direction since the start of the year, the most since 2009, according to Dow Jones Market Data — narrowly surpassing the number from 2020. That’s roughly four times the 10-year average of 11.3 per year.

    The VIX fell 3% on Thursday to 21.46 in afternoon trading as the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.75%
    ,
    Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and Nasdaq Composite COMP all headed for daily gains after the Nasdaq booked its lowest closing level of the year on Wednesday.

    A ‘really terrible year’

    Perhaps counterintuitively, Colas and others see the subdued VIX as a potential cause for concern. This is because a spike in the fear gauge has typically preceded stock-market bottoms in recent decades.

    Colas and others refer to the phenomenon as “capitulation,” meaning that a surge in the VIX means that sentiment in the market has grown so dire that the beginning of a market turnaround is likely at hand.

    The VIX surged above 80 before stocks bottomed out in March 2009, and again in March 2020. Colas has said in the past that levels above 40 are needed to signal that capitulation is at hand. Volatility typically rises fastest when stocks are falling, market strategists said.

    The lack of a clear signal that bears are reaching a point of exhaustion has made some analysts wonder if the market’s lows might still lie ahead.

    See: Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ still not signaling stock-market bottom is near, analysts say

    “Volatility seems too low,” said Danny Kirsch, head of the options desk at Piper Sandler, during a phone interview with MarketWatch this week. “I’d say the VIX should be in its mid-to-high 20s, as opposed to barely 20.”

    “We had a really terrible year. There was massive wealth destruction, and yet the cost to hedge going forward hasn’t really changed,” Kirsch added.  

    Is the VIX ‘broken’?

    Comparing the VIX’s 2022 performance to 2008 recently led Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital, to conclude that the gauge may be “broken” in a tweet published on Wednesday.

    Others have pushed back against this notion, arguing that while the VIX has been “somewhat low,” it’s still elevated compared with recent market history.

    To wit, the VIX’s current level is still more than twice its record low from Nov. 3, 2017, when the volatility gauge closed at 9.14, according to data from FactSet. This occurred at a time when U.S. stocks were drifting consistently higher. The S&P 500 went on to finish 2017 with a gain of more than 20%.

    “It’s been a high VIX year, just not as high as some people think it should have been, given volatility elsewhere in markets,” said Rocky Fishman, the head of index volatility research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

    The VIX has also maintained its strong inverse correlation to the S&P 500, as Callie Cox, a U.S. equity analyst at eToro, pointed out. Data shared by Cox showed that the VIX has moved inversely with the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.75%

    roughly 80% of the time since its inception in 1990.

    Why so low?

    So, why has the VIX been so subdued? Cox, Kirsch and others rattled off several factors that might be contributing to its malaise.

    One popular explanation is that as institutional investors dumped stocks and shifted more of their portfolios to cash this year, they were left with smaller levels of long-equity exposure in need of hedging.

    “VIX is basically a measure of demand for hedges by the biggest investors in the market. But when institutional investors are liquidating their equity positions, they no longer have a need for the associated hedges, so they unwind those positions in the derivatives markets and ultimately that pressures” the VIX, said analysts at Sevens Report Research in a note entitled “Is the VIX broken?” published earlier this month.

    Also, a generally bearish outlook for markets means that institutional investors are “fairly well hedged,” Kirsch said, which helps keep a lid on the VIX when large selloffs materialize.

    Others cited traders’ increasing reliance on short-term options for tactical trades.

    While the VIX is designed to interpret increased options buying as a sign that investors are growing more anxious, it specifically incorporates only options with roughly one month left until expiration.

    This has become an issue as trading in shorter-dated options, including contracts with less than one day left until they expire, has surged in popularity this year, according to data from Goldman Sachs.

    Trading in zero-day to expiration S&P 500 options has surged in the fourth quarter to more than four times its average level from 2021, according to data shared by Goldman in a research note dated Dec. 15.

    “The VIX doesn’t accurately measure fear these days because there’s so much trading in short-dated options,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

    Is a blowup looming?

    The question for investors now is whether a subdued VIX might lead to a volatility-inspired reckoning for markets, like what happened in February 2018, when a popular short-volatility trade rapidly unwound, contributing to the death of short-volatility products like the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN.

    It’s possible that markets could undergo a volatility-driven “washout” as some of the trades helping to suppress the VIX are unwound, Kirsch said. Although he doesn’t expect the impact on markets to be as severe as it was in 2018 or 2020, he told MarketWatch.

    But whatever happens, it’s possible analysts who rely on the VIX to inform their trading might need to adjust their expectations around what constitutes a capitulation signal, Cox told MarketWatch. Still, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the VIX is “broken.”

    “It’s still measuring what it’s intended to measure,” she said. “This is more a story of how much the options market has evolved over the past few years.”

    “People just aren’t using classic one-month options to hedge or speculate as much. Investors are choosing to get more precise with their options strategies, which makes a lot of sense — it’s cheaper and more adaptable,” Cox added.

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  • Trump subpoena withdrawn by Jan. 6 select committee

    Trump subpoena withdrawn by Jan. 6 select committee

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The House Jan. 6 committee has dropped its subpoena against former President Donald Trump as it wraps up work and prepares to dissolve next week.

    Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson, the committee’s Democratic chairman, wrote in a letter to Trump lawyer David Warrington on Wednesday that he is formally withdrawing the subpoena. “As you may know, the Select Committee has concluded its hearings, released its final report and will very soon reach its end,” Thompson wrote. “In light of the imminent end of our investigation, the Select Committee can no longer pursue the specific information covered by the subpoena.”

    The committee had voted to subpoena Trump during its final televised hearing before the midterm elections in October, demanding testimony and documents from the former president as it has investigated his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection and efforts to overturn his 2020 defeat.

    Lawmakers on the panel have acknowledged the subpoena would be difficult to enforce, especially as Republicans are poised to take over the House in January. But the move had political and symbolic value.

    “We are obligated to seek answers directly from the man who set this all in motion,” Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, the panel’s vice chair and one of two Republicans on the nine-member committee, said at the time. “And every American is entitled to those answers.”

    Trump then sued the panel in November to avoid cooperating. The lawsuit contended that while former presidents have voluntarily agreed to provide testimony or documents in response to congressional subpoenas in the past, “no president or former president has ever been compelled to do so.”

    The committee’s request for documents was sweeping, including personal communications between Trump and members of Congress as well as extremist groups. Trump’s attorneys said it was overly broad and framed it as an infringement of his First Amendment rights.

    While the panel never gained Trump’s testimony, the committee interviewed more than 1,000 witnesses, including most of his closest White House aides and allies.

    Many of those witnesses provided substantive detail about his efforts to sway state legislators, federal officials and lawmakers to help him overturn his defeat. And White House aides who were with him on Jan. 6 told the panel about his resistance to tell the violent mob of his supporters to leave the Capitol after they had broken in and interrupted the certification of President Joe Biden’s victory.

    In its final report issued last week, the committee concluded that Trump engaged in a “multipart conspiracy” to upend the 2020 election and failed to act on the violence. The panel also recommended that the Justice Department investigate the former president for four separate crimes, including aiding an insurrection.

    On social media Wednesday evening, Trump and his lawyers construed the move as a victory. “They probably did so because they knew I did nothing wrong, or they were about to lose in Court,” Trump wrote on his social-media site. He called the panel “political Thugs.”

    On Twitter, Trump lawyer Harmeet Dhillon said the panel had “waved the white flag.”

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  • U.S. stocks close sharply higher in year-end rally after jobless claims data deemed ‘welcome news for the Fed’

    U.S. stocks close sharply higher in year-end rally after jobless claims data deemed ‘welcome news for the Fed’

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    U.S. stock indexes finished sharply higher on Thursday, the second-to-last trading session of the year, with the Nasdaq Composite jumping 2.6%, erasing losses from earlier in the week.

    The three main indexes built on premarket gains after U.S. weekly jobless claims data showed the number of workers receiving benefits has climbed to the highest level since February, a tentative sign that the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes might be slowing economic growth and inflation.

    How stocks traded
    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      +1.75%

      rose 66.06 points, or 1.8%, to end at 3,849.28.

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      +1.05%

      added 345.09 points, or 1.1%, finishing at 33,220.80.

    • Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      +2.59%

      climbed 264.80 points, or 2.6%, to finish at 10,478.09.

    On Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.4% to 10,213, its lowest closing level of the year. The S&P 500 is up more than 6% from its 2022 low from mid-October, but the large-cap index remains down 19.2% year-to-date, FactSet data show.

    What drove markets

    The penultimate session of 2022 showed tentative signs of delivering some much needed festive cheer for the stock market as a hope for “Santa Claus rally” had earlier failed to materialize.

    MarketWatch Live: Is that you, Santa Claus?

    Stocks advanced on Thursday as data showed the number of Americans receiving more than a single week of unemployment benefits had climbed by 41,000 last week to 1.71 million, the highest level in 10 months.

    The jobless-claims data “points to a loosening in the labor market, which is welcome news for the Fed,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, in a tweet.

    However, analysts at Citi still think the claims data indicates a still-very-tight labor markets compared to historical levels.

    “While both initial and continuing claims increased this week, they remain within the levels of late 2019,” wrote Gisela Hoxha, U.S. economics research analyst at Citi. “Anecdotes of company layoffs have increased in recent months, particularly in the tech sector. While it could be hard to disentangle the seasonal effects from the announced layoffs, in our view there is no significant evidence of them showing up in the claims data yet.”

    Some of those layoffs could be taking effect a couple months later as employees might be kept on payroll for some time after the announcement, which will become significant signs of weakness in the labor market in 2023, Hoxha added.

    See: Did 2022 break Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’? Why the VIX no longer reflects the sorry state of the stock market

    Stocks were on track to finish what’s set to be the worst year since 2008 not far from 2022 lows. The S&P 500’s 52-week closing low at 3,577.03 was hit on Oct. 12.

    Still, the three indexes managed to erase losses from earlier in the week on Thursday. Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2% this week, while the S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the Dow was nearly flat as of Thursday’s close. If the S&P 500 can hold on to weekly gains through Friday, it would mark the end of a three-week losing streak that has been the index’s longest since September, FactSet data show.

    Companies in focus
    • Tesla Inc.
      TSLA,
      +8.08%

      shares finished 8.1% higher on Thursday after posting its first rise in eight sessions Wednesday. The electric-vehicle maker’s shares had declined in seven consecutive sessions, their worst losing streak since a seven-session run that ended on Sept. 15, 2018.

    • Southwest Airlines 
      LUV,
      +3.70%

      remains in focus as the airline tries to recover from logistical issues that caused thousands of flight cancellations over the past week. The stock fell 11% over the past two days, but rose 3.7% in Thursday session.

    • General Electric’s 
      GE,
      +2.17%

      spinoff of GE HealthCare Technologies will join the S&P 500 index when it begins trading as a separate public company on Jan. 4. GE HealthCare will replace Vornado Realty Trust 
      VNO,
      +1.63%
      ,
      which will move to the S&P MidCap 400. Vornado will replace logistics company RXO
      RXO,
      +8.39%
      ,
      which will move to the S&P SmallCap 600. GE HealthCare — trading on a when-issued basis — rose 0.9%, while Vornado gained 1.6% and RXO jumped 8.4%.

    • Cal-Maine 
      CALM,
      -14.50%

      shares ended 14.5% lower after its quarterly earnings came in below Wall Street forecasts. Cal-Maine reported record sales for the quarter as an avian flu outbreak continued to limit the supply of eggs, driving prices sharply higher. The company also said there were no positive tests for avian flu at any of its production facilities, as of Wednesday.

    — Jamie Chisholm contributed to this article

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  • ‘Five days that killed the year’: These trading sessions accounted for 95% of the S&P 500’s losses in 2022

    ‘Five days that killed the year’: These trading sessions accounted for 95% of the S&P 500’s losses in 2022

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    Just five trading sessions accounted for more than 95% of S&P 500 index losses in 2022, according to an analysis by Datatrek co-founder Nicholas Colas in a note published Wednesday, as stocks headed for their worst year since 2008.

    He described them in the note as the “five days that killed the year”: Two were caused by disappointing inflation data, while the others were triggered by weak corporate earnings and commentary from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

    September 13 (-4.3%)

    On the worst day for stocks since 2020, the release of the August U.S. consumer price index report sent traders into a panic when the data showed annual headline and core inflation running hotter than expected.

    The headline number came in at 8.3% for the 12 months through August, while core inflation — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — accelerated at 6.3%.

    Economists and analysts were particularly rattled by the monthly core inflation number, which came in at 0.6%, double the expected rate of 0.3%, stoking concerns about stubbornly high housing costs as energy prices began to decline after earlier being the biggest driver of this year’s inflation.

    May 18th (-4.0%). 

    Retail giant Target Corp.
    TGT,
    +0.04%

    missed first quarter earnings expectations by a wide margin, elevating worries about the U.S. consumer’s ability to cope with inflation into a full-blown panic one day after Walmart Inc.
    WMT,
    -1.64%

    highlighted similar concerns.

    Adding to the pressure on the market, during an event hosted by the Wall Street Journal Powell acknowledged that “there could be some pain involved” as the FOMC raised interest rates.

    June 13 (-3.9%)

    This day’s punishing selloff was also triggered by the release of CPI data, as the numbers for the month of May came in higher than expectations. The S&P 500 finished the session in bear-market territory for the first time in 2022, down 21.8% from the record highs reached in early January.

    April 29 (-3.6%)

    The market’s decline on this day was also triggered by a corporate earnings disappointment. However, this time, the focus was on e-commerce, and the ripple effects sent many of the megacap technology stocks reeling.

    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -1.16%

    — which like both Target and Walmart is a member of the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500 — missed earnings expectations for the first quarter while reducing its guidance. The stock ended the day down 14%, its biggest single-session decline since 2006. Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -2.94%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    -0.68%

    and Google owner Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    -1.48%

    were also down sharply.

    May 5 (-3.6%)

    Markets tumbled one day after Powell assured investors during a post-meeting press conference that the Fed wasn’t considering interest-rate hikes of greater than 50 basis points. Of course, this statement didn’t age well, as the central bank went on to hike interest rates by 75 basis points at the following four consecutive meetings.

    According to Colas, investors can glean some helpful insights about the root causes of this year’s market misery from these five sessions.

    To wit, investors had clearly realized by the spring that stubbornly high inflation would force the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate more aggressively than it was letting on. Also, inflated expectations for corporate earnings helped contribute to the pain as U.S. consumer spending waned.

    U.S. stocks sold off far more often than they traded higher this year, a deviation from the historic pattern since World War II whereby stocks typically climb far more often than they fall. Through Tuesday’s session,  the index fell during 141 trading days (including Tuesday), while finishing higher during 107 up days.

    The S&P 500 was on track to finish 2022 down more than 20% as of midday on Wednesday as all three of the main indexes were trading in the red, with the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.03%
    ,
    Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -1.20%

    and Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.88%

    adding to their losses with just two more trading days left in the year.

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  • Dig-out begins after deadly winter storm claims 27 lives in western New York alone

    Dig-out begins after deadly winter storm claims 27 lives in western New York alone

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    BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) —  The death toll from a pre-Christmas blizzard that paralyzed the Buffalo area and much of the country has risen to 27 in western New York, authorities said Monday, as the region dug out from one of the worst weather-related disasters in its history.

    The dead have been found in cars, in their homes and in snowbanks. Some died while shoveling. The storm that walloped much of the country is now blamed for at least 48 deaths nationwide, with rescue and recovery efforts continuing Monday.

    Living With Climate Change: Climate change and the polar vortex: Winter storms are normal, but this string of severe Christmas weather isn’t typical

    The blizzard roared through the western New York state on Friday and Saturday, stranding motorists, knocking out power and preventing emergency crews from reaching residents in frigid homes and idled vehicles.

    Buffalo, N.Y., was experiencing its longest sustained blizzard conditions ever, said New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a native Buffalonian.

    Huge snowdrifts nearly covered cars Monday, and there were thousands of houses, some adorned in unlit holiday displays, darkened by lack of power.

    The massive storm is expected to claim more lives because it trapped some residents inside houses and knocked out power to tens of thousands of homes and businesses.

    Extreme weather stretched from the Great Lakes near Canada to the Rio Grande along the border with Mexico. About 60% of the U.S. population faced some sort of winter weather advisory or warning, and temperatures plummeted dramatically below normal from east of the Rocky Mountains to the Appalachians.

    The National Weather Service said Sunday that the frigid arctic air “enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S.” would move away slowly.

    Hurricane-force winds and snow causing whiteout conditions paralyzed emergency response efforts in Buffalo.

    New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Buffalo native, said almost every fire truck in the city was stranded Saturday and implored people Sunday to respect an ongoing driving ban in the region. The National Weather Service said the snow total at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport stood at 43 inches (1.1 meters) at 7 a.m. Sunday. Officials said the airport would be shut through Tuesday morning.

    With snow swirling down impassable streets, forecasters warned an additional 1 to 2 feet (30 to 60 centimeters) of snow was possible in some areas through early Monday morning amid wind gusts of 40 mph (64 kph). Police said Sunday evening that there were two “isolated” instances of looting during the storm.

    Two people died in their suburban Cheektowaga, N.Y., homes Friday when emergency crews could not reach them in time to treat medical conditions. Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said 10 more people died there during the storm, including six in Buffalo, and warned there may be more dead.

    “Some were found in cars. Some were found on the street in snowbanks,” Poloncarz said. “We know there are people who have been stuck in cars for more than two days.”

    The Margin: Why you should always keep cat litter in your car — and other winter storm tips

    Freezing conditions and power outages had Buffalonians scrambling to get to anywhere with heat amid what Hochul described as the longest sustained blizzard conditions ever in the city.

    Ditjak Ilunga of Gaithersburg, Md., was on his way to visit relatives in Hamilton, Ontario, for Christmas with his daughters Friday when their SUV was trapped in Buffalo. Unable to get help, they spent hours with the engine running, buffeted by wind and nearly buried in snow.

    By 4 a.m. Saturday, their fuel nearly gone, Ilunga made a desperate choice to risk the howling storm to reach a nearby shelter. He carried 6-year-old Destiny on his back while 16-year-old Cindy clutched their Pomeranian puppy, following his footprints through drifts.

    “If I stay in this car I’m going to die here with my kids,” Ilunga recalled thinking. He cried when the family walked through the shelter’s doors. “It’s something I will never forget in my life.”

    Travelers’ weather woes continued, with hundreds of flight cancellations already and more expected after a bomb cyclone — when atmospheric pressure drops very quickly in a strong storm — developed near the Great Lakes, stirring up blizzard conditions, including heavy winds and snow.

    The storm knocked out power in communities from Maine to Seattle. But heat and lights were steadily being restored across the U.S. According to the website poweroutage.us, fewer than 200,000 customers were without power Sunday at 3 p.m. Eastern time — down from a maximum of 1.7 million.

    The Margin: Five tips for staying safe and warm during a power outage

    The mid-Atlantic grid operator had called for its 65 million consumers to conserve energy amid the freeze Saturday.

    Storm-related deaths were reported all over the country, from six motorists killed in crashes in Missouri, Kansas and Kentucky to a woman who fell through Wisconsin river ice.

    In Jackson, Miss., city officials on Christmas Day announced residents must now boil their drinking water due to water lines bursting in the frigid temperatures.

    MarketWatch contributed.

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  • Asian shares rise in thin holiday trading, with U.S., European markets closed

    Asian shares rise in thin holiday trading, with U.S., European markets closed

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    BANGKOK (AP) — Shares rose Monday in Asia in thin post-Christmas holiday trading, with markets in Hong Kong, Sydney and several other places closed.

    Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index
    NIK,
    +0.65%

    gained 0.6% to 26,393.32 and the Kospi
    180721,
    +0.15%

    in Seoul added 0.2% to 2,318.54. The Shanghai Composite index
    SHCOMP,
    +0.65%

    rose 0.5% to 3,061.93 and the SET
    SET,
    +0.47%

    in Bangkok added 0.6%.

    Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda indicated in a widely watched speech Monday that the central bank does not intend to alter its longstanding policy of monetary easing to cope with pressures from inflation on the world’s third-largest economy.

    Last week, markets were jolted by a slight adjustment in the target range for the yield of long-term Japanese government bonds, viewing it as a sign the Bank of Japan might finally unwind its massive support for the economy through ultra-low interest rates and purchases of bonds and other assets.

    A widening gap between interest rates in Japan and other countries has pulled the Japanese yen sharply lower against the U.S. dollar and other currencies and accentuated the impact of higher costs for many imported products and commodities.

    But the BOJ has kept its key lending rate at minus 0.1%, cautious over risks of recession.

    Kuroda told the Keidanren, the country’s most powerful business group, that with economies facing likely downward pressure, and with Japan’s economy not fully recovered from the impacts of the pandemic, the BOJ “deems it necessary to conduct monetary easing and thereby firmly support the economy. …”

    On Friday, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.59%

    reversed a 0.7% loss to close 0.6% higher, at 3,844.82. With one week left of trading in 2022, the benchmark index is down 19.3% for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.53%

    rose 0.5% to 33,203.93, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq
    COMP,
    +0.21%

    edged 0.2% higher, to 10,497.86.

    Small company stocks also rose. The Russell 2000 index
    RUT,
    +0.39%

    picked up 0.4% to 1,760.93.

    Mixed economic news weighed on stocks early on, but the indexes rebounded by late afternoon amid relatively light trading ahead of the long holiday weekend. U.S. and European markets will be closed Monday.

    Markets are in a tricky situation where relatively solid consumer spending and a strong employment market reduce the risk of a recession but also raise the threat of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve as it presses its campaign to crush inflation.

    The government reported Friday that a key measure of inflation is continuing to slow, though the inflation gauge in the consumer spending report was still far higher than anyone wants to see. Also, growth in consumer spending weakened last month by more than expected, but incomes were a bit stronger than expected.

    Last week’s reports were the last big U.S. economic updates of the year. Investors will soon turn their focus to the next round of corporate earnings.

    The Fed has said it will keep raising interest rates to tame inflation, even though the pace of price increases has continued to ease. The Fed’s key overnight rate is at its highest level in 15 years, after beginning the year at a record low of roughly zero.

    The key lending rate, the federal funds rate, stands at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, and Fed policymakers have forecast that the rate will reach a range of 5% to 5.25% by the end of 2023.

    Given the persistence of high inflation, “many are starting to believe the main story is that there will be no scope for Fed cuts in the year ahead and that central banks will maintain these relatively high rates until underlying inflation is truly cracked — and that process will take time,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

    The Fed’s forecast doesn’t call for a rate cut before 2024, and the higher rates have raised concerns the economy could stall and slip into a recession in 2023. High rates have also been weighing heavily on prices for stocks and other investments.

    In currency dealings, the U.S. dollar
    DXY,
    -0.10%

    slipped to 132.62 Japanese yen from 132.82 yen late Friday. The euro rose to $1.0629 from $1.0614.

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  • Leading indicators point to slowing U.S. economy and recession in 2023

    Leading indicators point to slowing U.S. economy and recession in 2023

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    The numbers: The U.S. leading index fell a sharp 1% in November, extending a downturn that began last spring and points to a weakening economy.

    Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.5% decline.

    The LEI is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse. The report is published by the nonprofit Conference Board.

    The index also fell 0.9% in October.

    Big picture: The economy is still expanding as the year winds down, but rising interest rates orchestrated by the Federal Reserve to tame high inflation could choke off growth in 2023. Many economists even predict a recession.

    Key details: The leading economic index fell last month largely because of higher jobless claims, a sagging housing market and a slowdown in manufacturing.

    A measure of current economic condition rose 0.1% in November.

    The so-called lagging index — a look of sorts in the rearview mirror — increased by 0.2%.

    Looking ahead: “The U.S. LEI suggests the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is curtailing aspects of economic activity, especially housing,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the board.

    “As a result, we project a U.S. recession is likely to start around the beginning of 2023 and last through mid-year.”

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.40%

    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.83%

    fell in Thursday trades.

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  • Franco Harris, Hall of Fame running back, dies aged 72

    Franco Harris, Hall of Fame running back, dies aged 72

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    PITTSBURGH (AP) — Franco Harris, the Hall of Fame running back whose heads-up thinking authored “The Immaculate Reception,” considered the most iconic play in NFL history, has died. He was 72.

    Harris’ son Dok told The Associated Press his father passed away overnight. No cause of death was given.

    His death comes two days before the 50th anniversary of the play that provided the jolt that helped transform the Steelers from also-rans into the NFL’s elite and three days before Pittsburgh is scheduled to retire his No. 32 during a ceremony at halftime of its game against the Las Vegas Raiders.

    Harris ran for 12,120 yards and won four Super Bowl rings with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 1970s, a dynasty that began in earnest when Harris decided to keep running during a last-second heave by Steelers quarterback Terry Bradshaw in a playoff game against Oakland in 1972.

    With Pittsburgh trailing 7-6 and facing fourth-and-10 from their own 40 yard line and 22 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, Bradshaw drifted back and threw deep to running back French Fuqua. Fuqua and Oakland defensive back Jack Tatum collided, sending the ball careening back toward midfield in the direction of Harris.

    While nearly everyone else on the field stopped, Harris kept his legs churning, snatching the ball just inches above the Three Rivers Stadium turf near the Oakland 45 then outracing several stunned Raider defenders to give the Steelers their first playoff victory in the franchise’s four-decade history.

    “That play really represents our teams of the ’70s,” Harris said after the ”Immaculate Reception” was voted the greatest play in NFL history during the league’s 100th anniversary season in 2020.

    While the Steelers fell the next week to Miami in the AFC Championship, Pittsburgh was on its way to becoming the dominant team of the 1970s, twice winning back-to-back Super Bowls, first after the 1974 and 1975 seasons and again after the 1978 and 1979 seasons.

    Harris, the 6-foot-2, 230-pound workhorse from Penn State, found himself in the center of it all. He churned for a then-record 158 yards rushing and a touchdown in Pittsburgh’s 16-6 victory over Minnesota in Super Bowl IX on his way to winning the game’s Most Valuable Player award. He scored at least once in three of the four Super Bowls he played in, and his 354 career yards rushing on the NFL’s biggest stage remains a record nearly four decades after his retirement.

    Born in Fort Dix, New Jersey, on March 7, 1950, Harris played collegiately at Penn State, where his primary job was to open holes for backfield mate Lydell Mitchell. The Steelers, in the final stages of a rebuild led by Hall of Fame coach Chuck Noll, saw enough in Harris to make him the 13th overall pick in the 1972 draft.

    “When (Noll) drafted Franco Harris, he gave the offense heart, he gave it discipline, he gave it desire, he gave it the ability to win a championship in Pittsburgh,” Steelers Hall of Fame wide receiver Lynn Swann said of his frequent roommate on team road trips.

    Harris’ impact was immediate. He won the NFL’s Rookie to the Year award in 1972 after rushing for a then-team-rookie record 1,055 yards and 10 touchdowns as the Steelers reached the postseason for just the second time in franchise history.

    The city’s large Italian-American population embraced Harris immediately, led by two local businessmen who founded what became known as “Franco’s Italian Army,” a nod to Harris’ roots as the son of an African-American father and an Italian mother.

    The “Immaculate Reception” made Harris a star, though he typically preferred to let his play and not his mouth do the talking. On a team that featured big personalities in Bradshaw, defensive tackle Joe Greene, linebacker Jack Lambert among others, the intensely quiet Harris spent 12 seasons as the engine that helped Pittsburgh’s offense go.

    Eight times he topped 1,000 yards rushing in a season, including five times while playing a 14-game schedule. He piled up another 1,556 yards rushing and 16 rushing touchdowns in the playoffs, both second all-time behind Smith.

    Despite his gaudy numbers, Harris stressed he was just one cog in an extraordinary machine that redefined greatness.

    “You see, during that era, each player brought their own little piece with them to make that wonderful decade happen,” Harris said during his Hall of Fame speech in 1990. “Each player had their strengths and weaknesses, each their own thinking, each their own method, just each, each had their own. But then it was amazing, it all came together, and it stayed together to forge the greatest team of all times.”

    Harris also made it a habit to stick up for his teammates. When Bradshaw took what Harris felt was an illegal late hit from Dallas linebacker Thomas “Hollywood” Henderson in the second half of their meeting in the 1978 Super Bowl, Harris basically demanded Bradshaw give him the ball on the next play. All Harris did was sprint up the middle 22 yards — right by Henderson — for a touchdown that gave the Steelers an 11-point lead they would not relinquish on their way to their third championship in six years.

    Despite all of his success, his time in Pittsburgh ended acrimoniously when the Steelers cut him after he held out during training camp before the 1984 season. Noll, who leaned on Harris so heavily for so long, famously answered “Franco who?” when asked about Harris’ absence from the team’s camp at Saint Vincent College.

    Harris signed with Seattle, running for just 170 yards in eight games before being released in midseason. He retired as the NFL’s third all-time leading rusher behind Walter Payton and Jim Brown.

    “I don’t even think about that (anymore),” Harris said in 2006. “I’m still black and gold.”

    Harris remained in Pittsburgh following his retirement, opening a bakery and becoming heavily involved in several charities, including serving as the chairman of “Pittsburgh Promise,” which provides college scholarship opportunities for Pittsburgh Public School students.

    Harris is survived by his wife Dana Dokmanovich and his son, Dok.

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  • House panel will make Trump’s long-sought tax returns public

    House panel will make Trump’s long-sought tax returns public

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    WASHINGTON — The Democratic-controlled House Ways and Means Committee voted along party lines on Tuesday to make parts of Donald Trump’s tax returns public, a move that could provide new insight into the finances of a former president who broke political norms by refusing to release the information on his own.

    The level of detail that will be revealed is uncertain, but lawmakers said they expect it to include six years of Trump’s tax returns and eight affiliated companies. Some sensitive personal information would be redacted. While an initial report on the committee’s work was issued later Tuesday night, the tax returns themselves may not be released for several more days.

    The release is the culmination of a yearslong fight between Trump and Democrats that has played out everywhere from the campaign trail to the halls of Congress and the Supreme Court. Democrats on the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee argued that transparency and the rule of law were at stake by voting to issue a report that legally rests on questions about how the IRS audits the wealthy. Republicans countered that the release would set a dangerous precedent with regard to the loss of privacy protections.

    “This is about the presidency, not the president,” committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., told reporters.

    Texas Rep. Kevin Brady, the panel’s top GOP member, said, “Regrettably, the deed is done.”

    “Over our objections in opposition, Democrats in the Ways and Means Committee have unleashed a dangerous new political weapon that overturns decades of privacy protections,” he told reporters.

    Trump has long had a complicated relationship with his personal income taxes.

    As a presidential candidate in 2016, he broke decades of precedent by refusing to release his tax forms to the public. He bragged during a presidential debate that year that he was “smart” because he paid no federal taxes and later claimed he wouldn’t personally benefit from the 2017 tax cuts he signed into law that favored people with extreme wealth, asking Americans to simply take him at his word.

    Tax records would have been a useful metric for judging his success in business. The image of a savvy businessman was key to a political brand honed during his years as a tabloid magnet and star of “The Apprentice” television show. They also could reveal any financial obligations — including foreign debts — that could influence how he governed.

    But Americans were largely in the dark about Trump’s relationship with the IRS until October 2018 and September 2020, when The New York Times published two separate series based on leaked tax records.

    The Pulitzer Prize-winning 2018 articles showed how Trump received a modern equivalent of at least $413 million from his father’s real estate holdings, with much of that money coming from what the Times called “tax dodges” in the 1990s. Trump sued the Times and his niece, Mary Trump, in 2021 for providing the records to the newspaper. In November, Mary Trump asked an appeals court to overturn a judge’s decision to reject her claims that her uncle and two of his siblings defrauded her of millions of dollars in a 2001 family settlement.

    The 2020 articles showed that Trump paid just $750 in federal income taxes in 2017 and 2018. Trump paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the past 15 years because he generally lost more money than he made.

    The articles exposed deep inequities in the U.S. tax code as Trump, a reputed multi-billionaire, paid little in federal income taxes. IRS figures indicate that the average tax filer paid roughly $12,200 in 2017, about 16 times more than the former president paid.

    Details about Trump’s income from foreign operations and debt levels were also contained in the tax filings, which the former president derided as “fake news.”

    At the time of the 2020 articles, Neal said he saw an ethical problem in Trump overseeing a federal agency that he has also battled with legal filings.

    “Now, Donald Trump is the boss of the agency he considers an adversary,” Neal said in 2020. “It is essential that the IRS’s presidential audit program remain free of interference.”

    The Manhattan district attorney’s office also obtained copies of Trump’s tax records in February 2021 after a protracted legal fight that included two trips to the Supreme Court.

    The office, then led by District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr., had subpoenaed Trump’s accounting firm in 2019, seeking access to eight years of Trump’s tax returns and related documents.

    The DA’s office issued the subpoena after Trump’s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen told Congress that Trump had misled tax officials, insurers and business associates about the value of his assets. Those allegations are the subject of a fraud lawsuit that New York Attorney General Letitia James filed against Trump and his company in September.

    Trump’s longtime accountant, Donald Bender, testified at the Trump Organization’s recent criminal trial that Trump reported losses on his tax returns every year for a decade, including nearly $700 million in 2009 and $200 million in 2010.

    Bender, a partner at Mazars USA LLP who spent years preparing Trump’s personal tax returns, said Trump’s reported losses from 2009 to 2018 included net operating losses from some of the many businesses he owns through his Trump Organization.

    The Trump Organization was convicted earlier this month on tax fraud charges for helping some executives dodge taxes on company-paid perks such as apartments and luxury cars.

    The current Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, told The Associated Press in an interview last week that his office’s investigation into Trump and his businesses continues.

    “We’re going to follow the facts and continue to do our job,” Bragg said.

    Trump, who refused to release his returns during his 2016 presidential campaign and his four years in the White House while claiming that he was under IRS audit, has argued there is little to be gleaned from the tax returns even as he has fought to keep them private.

    “You can’t learn much from tax returns, but it is illegal to release them if they are not yours!” he complained on his social media network last weekend.

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  • Ukraine’s Zelensky set to visit Washington on Wednesday, meet with Biden

    Ukraine’s Zelensky set to visit Washington on Wednesday, meet with Biden

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    WASHINGTON — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing to visit Washington on Wednesday, according to three AP sources, in his first known trip outside the country since Russia’s invasion began in February.

    Two congressional sources and one person familiar with the matter confirmed plans for the visit. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the highly sensitive nature of the trip. They said Zelensky’s visit, while expected, could still be called off at the last minute due to security concerns.

    The visit to Washington is set to include an address to Congress on Capitol Hill and a meeting with President Joe Biden. It comes as lawmakers are set to vote on a year-end spending package that includes about $45 billion in emergency assistance to Ukraine and as the U.S. prepares to send Patriot surface-to-air missiles to the country to help stave off Russia’s invasion.

    The latest tranche of U.S. funding would be the biggest American infusion of assistance yet to Ukraine, above even President Joe Biden’s $37 billion emergency request, and ensure that funding flows to the war effort for months to come.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi encouraged lawmakers to be on hand for Wednesday evening’s session.

    “We are ending a very special session of the 117th Congress with legislation that makes progress for the American people as well as support for our Democracy,” Pelosi wrote Tuesday in a letter to colleagues. “Please be present for a very special focus on Democracy Wednesday night.”

    Zelensky has — almost daily — addressed various parliaments and international organizations by video and he has sent his wife to foreign capitals to drum up assitance against the Russian invasion. The visit comes a day after he made a daring and dangerous trip to what he called the hottest spot on the 1300-km (808-mile) front line, the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s contested Donetsk province.

    In a video released by his office from the Bakhmut visit, Zelensky was handed a Ukrainian flag and alluded to delivering it to U.S. leaders.

    “The guys handed over our beautiful Ukrainian flag with their signatures for us to pass on,” Zelensky said in the video. “We are not in an easy situation. The enemy is increasing its army, and our people are braver and need more powerful weapons. We will pass it on from the boys to the Congress, to the President of the United States. We are grateful for their support, but it is not enough. It is a hint — it is not enough.”

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  • U.S. stocks edge higher, aiming to end four-day skid as Bank of Japan policy surprise adds to jitters

    U.S. stocks edge higher, aiming to end four-day skid as Bank of Japan policy surprise adds to jitters

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    U.S. stocks turned higher at midday Tuesday, as investors gauged whether the recent losing streak in equities has been overdone. Traders also weighed the potential rippled effects of the Bank of Japan’s surprise announcement to put a higher ceiling on government bond yields.

    How are stocks are trading
    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      +0.45%

      rose 9 points, or 0.2%, to 3,814.

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      +0.63%

      was up 114 points, or 0.3%, at 32,866.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -1.76%

      was up 26 points, or 0.2%, to 10,578.

    Stocks fell for a fourth straight session on Monday. The Nasdaq Composite was down 6.3% over that stretch, and has retreated 32.6% so far this year.

    What’s driving markets

    Wall Street is looking to avoid a fifth straight losing session, while investors weighed the implications of a surprise monetary policy shift by the Bank of Japan.

    The S&P 500 closed the previous day near a six-week low as concerns intensify that central banks’ hiking of borrowing costs to combat inflation will push economies into recession and cause corporate earnings to fall.

    The Bank of Japan had been an outlier among major central banks by having maintained rates at the zero lower bound, while others embarked on their biggest tightening cycle in a generation, noted Henry Allen, strategist at Deutsche Bank.

    But on Tuesday the BoJ doubled the cap on the country’s 10-year bond, from 0.25% to 0.5%, causing the yen to jump more than 3%, while whacking equities in the region and giving U.S. stock investors more to consider.

    See: Why the Bank of Japan’s surprise policy twist is rattling global markets

    The BoJ kept its short-term interest rate at minus 0.1%, but the raising of the yield at which it will allow bonds to trade was seen as a step towards the ending of its era of ultra-loose monetary policy. The Nikkei 225
    NIK,
    -2.46%

    fell 2.5%.

    “It’s important not to underestimate the impact this could have, because tighter BoJ policy would remove one of the last global anchors that’s helped to keep borrowing costs at low levels more broadly,” Allen added.

    The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.692%

    stood at 3.685% as the equivalent maturity Japanese government bond
    TMBMKJP-10Y,
    0.417%

    climbed to 0.418%.

    However, some analysts argued that recent drops in U.S. stocks were starting to go too far.

    “I think we’ve been oversold the last couple weeks,” Joe Saluzzi, partner at Themis Trading, said in a phone interview. There’s the macroeconomic pressures weighing on stocks, but Saluzzi said the recent run of heavy selling may also be partly attributable to year-end tax loss harvesting in order to reap tax benefits from the year’s losses.

    The Bank of Japan announcement may have unsettled some early trading, he said. But ultimately, there’s just one central bank in the mind of U.S. equity investors, Saluzzi noted.

    Until the Federal Reserve is clear that its own interest rate hikes are complete, markets will be choppy, Saluzzi said. “The economy is weakening. No matter what the Fed said, they are not going to be doing much more,” he said.

    “U.S. equity markets remain trending lower in the short run, but are close to near-term support which should materialize between 12/21-12/23 at marginally lower levels,” wrote Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat, in a note to clients.

    “The percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving average is nearing single-digit territory, which normally provides relief for longs. Overall, I don’t expect markets to go down much further in December, and risk/reward for trading shorts looks sub-par with SPX not far above targets at 3,725.

    “This might materialize at 3775-3800 before allowing for a minor bounce, and then retest into Wednesday-Friday. However, I’m fully expecting a bounce next week into year-end, regardless if it proves temporary,” Newton concluded.

    Tuesday morning data gave another window to a slowing economy. Building permits and housing starts were both down in November.

    Companies in focus
    • 3M Co. 
      MMM,
      -0.34%

      is phasing out the manufacturing of so-called “forever chemicals” like fluoropolymers, fluorinated fluids, and PFAS-based additive products by the end of 2025. The phase-out process will include taking mostly non-cash charges of $1.3 billion to $2.3 billion to exit the line of business. Shares are down 0.5% in mid-morning trading.

    • Wells Fargo & Co. 
      WFC,
      -1.06%

      is being ordered to pay a civil penalty of $1.7 billion and return more than $2 billion to consumers, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The regulator said the fines and consumer redress are connected to “widespread mismanagement” of auto loans, mortgages and deposit accounts, the CFPB said. Shares were off 1.1% in mid-morning trading.

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  • Stocks could face another explosion of volatility Friday as $4 trillion of options expire in ‘quadruple witching’

    Stocks could face another explosion of volatility Friday as $4 trillion of options expire in ‘quadruple witching’

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    Stocks have been on a wild ride this week, and conditions could still get weirder as traders brace for “quadruple witching” on Friday, when a flurry of equity options and futures contracts expire.

    In particular, options contracts tied to $4 trillion in stocks, stock-index futures and exchange-traded funds are set to expire, making Friday potentially the busiest day for options traders this year, according to data compiled by Rocky Fishman, the head of index volatility research at Goldman Sachs.

    The…

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  • Jobless claims drop to 11-week low of 211,000 in early December

    Jobless claims drop to 11-week low of 211,000 in early December

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    The numbers: The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in early December fell to a nearly three-month low of 211,000, indicating layoffs around the holiday season remain low even as the economy softens.

    New unemployment filings declined by 20,000 from 231,000 in the prior week, the government said Thursday.

    Economists…

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  • Bank of England slows rate hike pace to a half point

    Bank of England slows rate hike pace to a half point

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    The Bank of England on Thursday slowed the pace of interest-rate hikes down to a half point, as the U.K. central bank balances a need to fight inflation with signs the economy is decelerating.

    The Bank of England increased its main interest rate to 3.5% from 3%. There were two votes for no change and one for a 75 basis point hike.

    U.K. inflation…

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  • Landmark bill protecting same-sex and interracial marriages passes House

    Landmark bill protecting same-sex and interracial marriages passes House

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The House gave final approval Thursday to legislation protecting same-sex marriages, a monumental step in a decadeslong battle for nationwide recognition of such unions that reflects a stunning turnaround in societal attitudes.

    President Joe Biden is expected to promptly sign the measure, which requires all states to recognize same-sex marriages, a relief for hundreds of thousands of couples who have married since the Supreme Court’s 2015 decision that legalized those marriages nationwide.

    The bipartisan legislation, which passed 258-169, would also protect interracial unions by requiring states to recognize legal marriages regardless of “sex, race, ethnicity, or national origin.”

    In debate ahead of the vote, several gay members of Congress talked about what it would mean for them and their families. Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., said he was set to marry “the love of my life” next year and that it is “unthinkable” that his marriage might not be recognized in some states.

    Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Wis., said he and his husband should be able to visit each other in the hospital just like any other married couple and receive spousal benefits “regardless of if your spouse’s name Samuel or Samantha.”

    Rep. David Cicilline, D-R.I., said that the idea of marriage equality used to be a “far-fetched idea; now it’s the law of the land and supported by the vast majority of Americans.”

    While the bill received GOP votes, most Republicans opposed the legislation and some conservative advocacy groups lobbied aggressively against it, arguing that it doesn’t do enough to protect those who want to refuse services for same-sex couples.

    “God’s perfect design is indeed marriage between one man and one woman for life,” said Rep. Bob Good, R-Va. “And it doesn’t matter what you think or what I think, that’s what the Bible says.”

    Rep. Vicky Hartzler, R-Mo., choked up as she begged colleagues to vote against the bill, which she said undermines “natural marriage” between a man and a woman.

    “I’ll tell you my priorities,” Hartzler said. “Protect religious liberty, protect people of faith and protect Americans who believe in the true meaning of marriage.”

    Democrats moved the bill quickly through the House and Senate after the Supreme Court’s June decision that overturned the federal right to an abortion. That ruling included a concurring opinion from Justice Clarence Thomas that suggested same-sex marriage should also be reconsidered.

    The House passed a bill to protect the same-sex unions in July with the support of 47 Republicans, a robust and unexpected show of support that kick-started serious negotiations in the Senate. After months of talks, the Senate passed the legislation last week with 12 Republican votes.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., presided over the vote as one of her last acts in leadership before stepping aside in January. She said the legislation “will ensure that “the federal government will never again stand in the way of marrying the person you love.”

    The legislation would not require states to allow same-sex couples to marry, as the Supreme Court’s 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges decision now does. But it would require states to recognize all marriages that were legal where they were performed and it would protect current same-sex unions if the Obergefell decision were overturned.

    While it’s not everything advocates may have wanted, passage of the legislation represents a watershed moment. Just a decade ago, many Republicans openly campaigned on blocking same-sex marriages; today more than two-thirds of the public support them.

    Democrats in the Senate, led by Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin and Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema, slowly won over key Republican votes by negotiating an amendment that would clarify that the legislation does not affect the rights of private individuals or businesses that are already enshrined in current law. The amended bill would also make clear that a marriage is between two people, an effort to ward off some far-right criticism that the legislation could endorse polygamy.

    In the end, several religious groups, including The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, came out in support of the bill. The Mormon church said it would support rights for same-sex couples as long as they didn’t infringe upon religious groups’ right to believe as they choose.

    Conservative groups that opposed the bill pushed the almost four dozen Republicans who previously backed the legislation to switch their position. The Republicans who supported the bill in July represented a wide range of the GOP caucus — from more moderate members to Pennsylvania Rep. Scott Perry, the chair of the conservative hard-right House Freedom Caucus, and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, the No. 3 House Republican. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy voted against the measure.

    Thursday’s vote came as the LGBTQ community has faced violent attacks, such as the shooting earlier this month at a gay nightclub in Colorado that killed five people and injured at least 17.

    “We have been through a lot,” said Kelley Robinson, the incoming president of the advocacy group Human Rights Campaign. But Robinson says the votes show “in such an important way” that the country values LBGTQ people.

    “We are part of the full story of what it means to be an American,” said Robinson, who was inside the Senate chamber for last week’s vote with her wife and young son. “It really speaks to them validating our love.”

    The vote was personal for many senators, too. The day the bill passed their chamber, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was wearing the tie he wore at his daughter’s wedding to another woman. He recalled that day as “one of the happiest moments of my life.”

    Baldwin, the first openly gay senator who has been working on gay rights issues for almost four decades, tearfully hugged Schumer as the final vote was underway. She tweeted thanks to the same-sex and interracial couples who she said made the moment possible.

    “By living as your true selves, you changed the hearts and minds of people around you,” she wrote.

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  • U.S. jobless claims climb to 230,000 in sign labor market is slowly cooling off

    U.S. jobless claims climb to 230,000 in sign labor market is slowly cooling off

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    The numbers: The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in early December rose slightly to 230,000, pointing to a slow but steady increase in layoffs as the U.S. economy slows.

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast new claims to total 230,000 in the seven days ended Dec 3. The figures are seasonally adjusted.

    The number of people applying for jobless benefits is one of the best barometers of whether the economy is getting better or worse. New unemployment filings have gradually risen from a 54-year low of 166,000 last spring , but they are still extremely low.

    Economists predict layoffs will rise, however, as rising interest rates orchestrated by the Federal Reserve choke off U.S. growth. The tech sector has already suffered a wave of layoffs and manufacturers are also scaling back.

    Big picture: The strongest U.S labor market in decades has now become a double-edged sword.

    Rising wages and low unemployment have allowed Americans to meet their needs and spend enough to keep the economy growing.

    Yet the fastest wage growth in four decades is now adding to high U.S. inflation and putting more pressure on the Fed to get prices back under control.

    The Fed could tip the economy into recession if it raises rates high enough to cool off a hot labor market.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
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    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.19%

    were set to rise in Thursday trades.

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  • Volodymyr Zelensky and ‘the spirit of Ukraine’ named Time’s Person of the Year

    Volodymyr Zelensky and ‘the spirit of Ukraine’ named Time’s Person of the Year

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    ‘For proving that courage can be as contagious as fear, for stirring people and nations to come together in defense of freedom, for reminding the world of the fragility of democracy — and of peace — Volodymyr Zelensky and the spirit of Ukraine are TIME’s 2022 Person of the Year.’

    That was Time editor in chief Edward Felsenthal explaining why the publication has named the Ukrainian leader and his people as 2022’s “Person of the Year,” an annual honorific that Time gives to the person or group of people who “most influenced the events of the past 12 months, for good or for ill.” 

    This year’s 10 finalists also included Tesla
    TSLA,
    -3.21%

    CEO Elon Musk (who took the title last year, and has remained a news driver with this Twitter takeover this year), U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (whom the U.S. has “leaned on” to interpret the telltale signs of a recession) and Florida governor (and possible 2024 GOP presidential candidate) Ron DeSantis.

    In fact, some of these finalists were also recently featured in the inaugural MarketWatch 50 list of the investors, CEOs, policy makers, crypto players and influencers who are impacting markets and your money this year.

    But Felsenthal wrote that Zelensky was “the most clear-cut” choice for “Person of the Year” in recent memory, because he “galvanized the world in a way we haven’t seen in decades” following the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine led by President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 25.

    The Time editor notes how Zelensky became a household name and international icon this year for staying in his country throughout the invasion, and rallying support on social media by giving daily speeches remotely. Some 141 countries in the United Nations condemned the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. And almost 1,000 companies, including giants like McDonald’s
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    and Starbucks
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    ,
    pulled out of Russia in response. The blue and gold Ukrainian flag became a familiar site on social media, as well, as users and accounts showed their support for Ukraine. 

    The “Person of the Year” report notes that Zelensky has also drawn his share of criticism, however — including from his fellow Ukrainians —for downplaying the threat of invasion before the Russian bombs first fell. And some critics have called his charm offensive via fashion photo shoots and virtual Grammy Awards appearances and the like somewhat out-of-touch with the human casualties of the war in Ukraine.

    “Later we will be judged,” Zelensky told Time reporter Simon Shuster in an accompanying interview. But in the meantime, he says, “I have not finished this great, important action for our country. Not yet.”

    Apart from Musk, DeSantis and Yellen, the other “Person of the Year” finalists included Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney for her work on the Jan. 6 committee and her vow to do “whatever it takes” to keep former President Donald Trump out of the Oval Office in the next election.

    Amazon
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    +0.24%

    founder Jeff Bezos’ ex MacKenzie Scott also made the list for her historic philanthropy, donating almost $2 billion to 343 organizations focused on the support of underserved communities in this year alone.

    And the U.S. Supreme Court was given a nod for its historic decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and end almost 50 years of constitutional precedent that protected abortion rights for American women, along with swearing in its first Black female justice, Ketanji Brown Jackson, to the bench.

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  • U.S. stocks waver in choppy trade, S&P 500 on pace for 5-day losing streak as economic growth worries linger

    U.S. stocks waver in choppy trade, S&P 500 on pace for 5-day losing streak as economic growth worries linger

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    U.S. stock indexes are wavering between small gains and losses on Wall Street Wednesday, struggling to gain ground after a four-day losing streak amid worries about the chances of an economic downturn in coming months.

    How are stock-index futures trading
    • S&P 500
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      -0.16%

      dropped 14 points, or 0.3%, to 3,927

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average
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      shed 70 points, or 0.2%, to 33,528, after rallying over 145 points earlier in the session

    • Nasdaq Composite
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      fell 83 points, or 0.8% to 10,931

    On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 351 points, or 1.03%, to 33596, the S&P 500 declined 58 points, or 1.44%, to 3,941, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 225 points, or 2%, to 11,015.

    What’s driving markets

    A four-day losing streak, during which the S&P 500 index has lost 3.4%, showed little sign of being snapped Wednesday as investors continued to assess the potential economic damage inflicted by high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s campaign to damp it by raising interest rates. U.S. stock indexes extended losses in midday trade despite regaining some ground in the morning session.

    MarketWatch Live: S&P 500 on pace for 5-day losing streak as stocks turn negative heading into midday

    “The recent run of macro data points in the U.S. continues to underscore relatively solid economic trends. And combined with the recent easing in financial conditions, it may trigger a need for the Fed to push back in December. Put another way, the dove camp is feeling some pain,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

    Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank , noted that the S&P 500 had now lost ground in the last seven out of eight sessions. “In fact, the latest moves for the S&P mean it’s now unwound the entirety of the rally following Fed Chair Powell’s [supposedly dovish] speech last week, which makes sense on one level given he didn’t actually say anything particularly new.”

    The S&P 500 has fallen 17.2% in 2022 as the Federal Reserve has driven borrowing costs sharply higher in an effort to tame inflation that has been running at the fastest pace in 40 years.

    See: BNP Paribas studied 100 years of market crashes — here’s what it says is coming next

    The Fed’s monetary tightening alongside stubborn inflation may deliver a marked economic slowdown, senior bankers such as JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs’s David Solomon warned this week.

    “Fears are growing that economies are in for a rough time ahead as feverish inflation and the bitter interest rate medicine being used to bring it down take effect,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

    “Worries deepened amid warnings from U.S. banking and media sectors that navigating through the storm would not be easy, while the latest data has shown China’s trade has been sideswiped by a drop in global demand and zero-COVID policies. Despite today’s easing of restrictions it’s clear China’s COVID nightmare is not at an end,” Streeter added.

    China on Wednesday announced a series of measures rolling back some of its most draconian anti-COVID-19 restrictions. People who test positive for the virus will be able to isolate at home rather than in overcrowded and unsanitary field hospitals, and schools where there have been no outbreaks must return to in-class teaching, according to the National Health Commission.

    The Hang Seng index
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    -3.22%

    in Hong Kong fell 3.2%, while the CSI 300
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    -0.25%

    dropped 0.2%, suggesting investors had already discounted Beijing’s more relaxed COVID stance.

    See: A speedy reversal of China COVID-19 restrictions could cause 1 million winter deaths: report

    However, long time bull Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, reckons equities will benefit in coming weeks as investors start to get greater clarity on when the Fed may stop tightening policy.

    “We don’t think the end of the inflation war in 2022 is the Fed cutting rates. It is when Fed and markets see sufficient progress in inflation to remove the upside risks to higher rates. We think this could happen as early as the November CPI report. This will be released on 12/13,” Lee wrote in a note.

    “And if November CPI is soft, we think this will support a strong year-end rally. Admittedly, a 10% move between now and [year end] seems a stretch given the S&P 500 is around 4,000 but… the broader point is we see stocks having positive skew given the cautious positioning of investors and the possibility of very favorable incoming inflation reports,” Lee added.

    On the U.S. economic front, nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output change per worker, rose at a 0.8% annualized rate last quarter, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Unit labor costs, the price of labor per single unit of output, climbed by a smaller 2.4% annual pace in the third quarter, compared to the preliminary 3.5% increase.

    What companies are in focus

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