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Tag: Mutual Funds

  • Fed could be the Grinch who 'stole' cash earning 5%. What a Powell pivot means for investors.

    Fed could be the Grinch who 'stole' cash earning 5%. What a Powell pivot means for investors.

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    Yields on 3-month
    BX:TMUBMUSD03M
    and 6-month
    BX:TMUBMUSD06M
    Treasury bills have been seeing yields north of 5% since March when Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse ignited fears of a broader instability in the U.S. banking sector from rapid-fire Fed rate hikes.

    Six months later, the Fed, in its final meeting of the year, opted to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%, a 22-year high, but Powell also finally signaled that enough was likely enough, and that a policy pivot to interest rate cuts was likely next year.

    Importantly, the central bank chair also said he doesn’t want to make the mistake of keeping borrowing costs too high for too long. Powell’s comments helped lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    above 37,000 for the first time ever on Wednesday, while the blue-chip index on Friday scored a third record close in a row.

    “People were really shocked by Powell’s comments,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist, at PGIM Fixed Income. Rather than dampen rate-cut exuberance building in markets, Powell instead opened the door to rate cuts by midyear, he said.

    New York Fed President John Williams on Friday tried to temper speculation about rate cuts, but as Tipp argued, Williams also affirmed the central bank’s new “dot plot” reflecting a path to lower rates.

    “Eventually, you end up with a lower fed-funds rate,” Tipp said in an interview. The risk is that cuts come suddenly, and can erase 5% yields on T-bills, money-market funds and other “cash-like” investments in the blink of an eye.

    Swift pace of Fed cuts

    When the Fed cut rates in the past 30 years it has been swift about it, often bringing them down quickly.

    Fed rate-cutting cycles since the ’90s trace the sharp pullback also seen in 3-month T-bill rates, as shown below. They fell to about 1% from 6.5% after the early 2000 dot-com stock bust. They also dropped to almost zero from 5% in the teeth of the global financial crisis in 2008, and raced back down to a bottom during the COVID crisis in 2020.

    Rates on 3-month Treasury bills dropped suddenly in past Fed rate-cutting cycles


    FRED data

    “I don’t think we are moving, in any way, back to a zero interest-rate world,” said Tim Horan, chief investment officer fixed income at Chilton Trust. “We are going to still be in a world where real interest rates matter.”

    Burt Horan also said the market has reacted to Powell’s pivot signal by “partying on,” pointing to stocks that were back to record territory and benchmark 10-year Treasury yield’s
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    that has dropped from a 5% peak in October to 3.927% Friday, the lowest yield in about five months.

    “The question now, in my mind,” Horan said, is how does the Fed orchestrate a pivot to rate cuts if financial conditions continue to loosen meanwhile.

    “When they begin, the are going to continue with rate cuts,” said Horan, a former Fed staffer. With that, he expects the Fed to remain very cautious before pulling the trigger on the first cut of the cycle.

    “What we are witnessing,” he said, “is a repositioning for that.”

    Pivoting on the pivot

    The most recent data for money-market funds shows a shift, even if temporary, out of “cash-like” assets.

    The rush into money-market funds, which continued to attract record levels of assets this year after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, fell in the past week by about $11.6 billion to roughly $5.9 trillion through Dec. 13, according to the Investment Company Institute.

    Investors also pulled about $2.6 billion out of short and intermediate government and Treasury fixed income exchange-traded funds in the past week, according to the latest LSEG Lipper data.

    Tipp at PGIM Fixed Income said he expects to see another “ping pong” year in long-term yields, akin to the volatility of 2023, with the 10-year yield likely to hinge on economic data, and what it means for the Fed as it works on the last leg of getting inflation down to its 2% annual target.

    “The big driver in bonds is going to be the yield,” Tipp said. “If you are extending duration in bonds, you have a lot more assurance of earning an income stream over people who stay in cash.”

    Molly McGown, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities, said that economic data will continue to be a driving force in signaling if the Fed’s first rate cut of this cycle happens sooner or later.

    With that backdrop, she expects next Friday’s reading of the personal-consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, for November to be a focus for markets, especially with Wall Street likely to be more sparsely staffed in the final week before the Christmas holiday.

    The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and it eased to a 3% annual rate in October from 3.4% a month before, but still sits above the Fed’s 2% annual target.

    “Our view is that the Fed will hold rates at these levels in first half of 2024, before starting cutting rates in second half and 2025,” said Sid Vaidya, U.S. Wealth Chief Investment Strategist at TD Wealth.

    U.S. housing data due on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week also will be a focus for investors, particularly with 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling below 7% for the first time since August.

    The major U.S. stock indexes logged a seventh straight week of gains. The Dow advanced 2.9% for the week, while the S&P 500
    SPX
    gained 2.5%, ending 1.6% away from its Jan. 3, 2022 record close, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    The Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    advanced 2.9% for the week and the small-cap Russell 2000 index
    RUT
    outperformed, gaining 5.6% for the week.

    Read: Russell 2000 on pace for best month versus S&P 500 in nearly 3 years

    Year Ahead: The VIX says stocks are ‘reliably in a bull market’ heading into 2024. Here’s how to read it.

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  • 'Smidcap' companies are becoming a big deal. Here's a look at some of the best.

    'Smidcap' companies are becoming a big deal. Here's a look at some of the best.

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    The stocks of long-neglected small companies are finally showing signs of life as the market rally broadens. But these tiny companies still remain vastly undervalued. So, they are one of the best buys in the stock market right now.

    Small- and medium-cap companies, or smidcaps, have not been this cheap since the Great Financial Crisis 15 years ago. “Smidcaps relative to large caps look very attractive,” says says portfolio manager Aram Green, at the ClearBridge Select Fund LBFIX, which specializes in this space.  “Over the long term you will be rewarded.” 

    Green is worth listening to because he is one of the better fund managers in the smidcap arena. ClearBridge Select beats both its midcap growth category and Morningstar U.S. midcap growth index over the past five- and 10 years, says Morningstar Direct. This is no easy feat, in a mutual fund world where so many funds lag their benchmarks. 

    The timing for smidcap outperformance seems about right, since these stocks do well coming out of recessions. Technically, we have not recently had a recession. But there was an economic slowdown in the first half of the year, and the U.S. did have an earnings recession earlier this year. So that may count. 

    To get smidcap exposure, consider the funds of outperforming managers like Green, and if you want to throw in some individual stocks, Green is a great guide on how to find the best names in this space. 

    I recently caught up with him to see what we can learn about analyzing smidcaps. Below are four tactics that contribute to his fund’s outperformance, with nine company examples to consider.  

    1. Look for an entrepreneurial mindset: Green’s background gives him an edge in investing. He’s an entrepreneur who co-founded a software company called iCollege in 1997. It was bought out by BlackBoard in 2001. He knows how to understand innovative trends, identify a good idea, secure capital and quickly ramp up a business. This experience gives him a “private market mindset” that helps him pick stocks to this day. 

    Founder-run companies regularly outperform.

    Green looks for managers with an entrepreneurial mindset. You can glean this from company calls and filings, but it helps a lot to meet management — something most individual investors cannot do. But Green offers a shortcut, one which I regularly use, as well. Look for companies that are run by founders. This will give you exposure to managers with entrepreneurial spirit. 

    Here, Green cites the marketing software company HubSpot
    HUBS,
    +0.79%
    ,
    a 1.9% fund position as of the end of the third quarter. It was founded by Massachusetts Institute of Technology college buddies Brian Halligan and Dharmesh Shah. They’re on the company’s board, and Shah is chief technology officer. 

    Academic studies confirm founder-run companies regularly outperform. My guess is this is because many founders never lose the entrepreneurial spirit, no matter how easy it would be to quit and sip Mai Tai’s on a beach after making a bundle.  

    In the private market, Green cites Databricks, a data management and analytics company with an AI angle. This competitor of Snowflake
    SNOW,
    -0.92%

    is likely to go public in 2024. If you feel like an outsider because you lack access to private market investing, note that Green says he typically buys more exposure to private companies on the initial public offering (IPO), and then in the market.  “We like to spend time with them when they are private so we can pounce when they are public,” Green says.

    2. Look for organic growth: When companies make acquisitions their stocks often decline, and for good reason. Managers make mistakes in acquisitions because they overestimate “synergies.” Or they get wrapped up in ego-enhancing empire building. 

    “We favor entrepreneurial management teams that do not make a lot of acquisitions to grow, but use their resources to develop new products to keep extending the runway,” says Green. 

    Here, he cites ServiceNow
    NOW,
    +2.62%
    ,
    which has grown by “extending the runway” with new offerings developed internally. It started off supporting information technology service desks, and has expanded into operations management of servers and security, onboarding employees, data analytics, and software that powers 911 emergency call systems. Green obviously thinks there is a lot more upside to come, given that this is an overweight position, at 4.6% of the portfolio (the fund’s biggest holding).

    Green also puts the “Amazon.com of Latin America” MercadoLibre
    MELI,
    +0.17%

    in this category, because it continues to expand geographically and in areas such as logistics and payment systems. “They have really morphed into a fintech company,” Green says. He puts HubSpot and the marketing software company Klaviyo
    KVYO,
    -5.73%

    in this category, too. 

    3. Look for differentiated business models: Green likes companies with offerings that are special and different. That means they’ll take market share, and face minimal competition. They’ll also enjoy pricing power. “This leads to high margins. You don’t have someone beating you up on price,” he says. 

    Green cites the decking company Trex
    TREX,
    +0.10%
    ,
    which offers composite decking and railing made from recycled materials. This gives it an eco-friendly allure. Compared to wood, composite material lasts longer and requires less maintenance. It costs more up front but less over the long term. Says Green: “The alternative decking market has taken about 20% of the market and that can get to 50%.”

    Of course, entrepreneurs notice success, and try to imitate it. That’s a risk here. But Trex has an edge in its understanding of how to make the composite material. It has a strong brand. And it is building relationships with big-box retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s. These qualities may keep competitors at bay. 

    4. Put some ballast in your portfolio: Green likes to keep the fund’s portfolio balanced by sector, size, and business dynamic. So the portfolio includes the food distributor Performance Food Group
    PFGC,
    -1.69%
    .
    The company is posting mid-single digit sale growth, expanding market share and paying down debt. Energy drinks company Monster
    MNST,
    -0.85%

    also offers ballast. Monster’s popular product line up helps the company to take share and enjoy pricing power, Green says.

    It’s admittedly unusual to see a food companies in a portfolio loaded with high-growth tech innovators. But for Green, it’s all part of the game plan. “Rapid growth, disrupting businesses are not going to work year in year out. There are times they fall out of favor, like 2022. So, having that balance is important because it keeps you invested in the equity market.” 

    In other words, keeping some ballast means you’re less likely to get shaken out by sharp declines in high-growth and high-beta tech innovators when trouble strikes the market.

    Michael Brush is a columnist for MarketWatch. At the time of publication, he owned AMZN, TSLA and MELI. Brush has suggested AMZN, TSLA, NOW, MELI, HD and LOW in his stock newsletter, Brush Up on Stocks. Follow him on X @mbrushstocks

    More: Nvidia, Disney and Tesla are among 2023’s buzziest stocks. Can they continue to sizzle in 2024?

    Also read: Presidential election years like 2024 are usually winners for U.S. stocks

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  • Many mutual funds are converting to exchange-traded funds. Here's what investors need to know

    Many mutual funds are converting to exchange-traded funds. Here's what investors need to know

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    A growing number of mutual funds are converting to exchange-traded funds, which is a positive trend for investors, experts say.

    Since early 2021, there have been more than 70 mutual fund to ETF conversions, including nearly three dozen in 2023, according to Morningstar Direct, and experts say more conversions are coming.

    “It’s steadily increasing year-over-year,” said Daniel Sotiroff, senior manager research analyst for Morningstar Research Services.

    More from ETF Strategist

    Here’s a look at other stories offering insight on ETFs for investors.

    A 2019 change from the Securities and Exchange Commission provided fund managers with more flexibility, which has helped pave the way for mutual fund to ETF conversions, according to Sotiroff.

    The conversion itself is tax-free to the investor and switches from actively managed mutual funds, which aim to outperform the market. The primary benefit of the new ETF is more tax efficiency.

    “That’s a big selling point,” Sotiroff said.

    Year-end mutual fund capital gains distributions can be a pain point for investors with actively managed mutual funds in brokerage accounts. Those payouts can trigger a sizable tax bill, even when the investor hasn’t sold shares.

    In 2023, many fund managers realized gains to meet investor redemptions, resulting in double-digit projected payouts for some funds.

    The most attractive feature of an ETF is that most don’t distribute capital gains at the end of the year.

    Barry Glassman

    Founder and president of Glassman Wealth Services

    Conversions are still ‘kind of rare’

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  • Markets – MarketWatch

    Markets – MarketWatch

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    Technology-stock gains drive big day, week on Wall Street

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  • Responsible investing is growing in Canada. Which ESG factors matter most? – MoneySense

    Responsible investing is growing in Canada. Which ESG factors matter most? – MoneySense

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    According to the 2023 Canadian Responsible Investment Trends Report, released on Oct. 26 by the Responsible Investment Association (RIA), the answer is yes: investors continue to prioritize responsible investing, and more growth is expected as local and international reporting standards improve. Survey responses are from Canadian institutional asset managers and asset owners who answered questions in mid-2023. The data shared paints a picture of the industry on Dec. 31, 2022. Here are some highlights from the report.

    About half of assets under management are invested responsibly

    With $2.9 trillion of assets under management in responsible investments (RI) in Canada, this is no small industry. And while this number is a slight decrease from the previous year, that’s a product of market conditions: it actually reflects a higher proportion of all Canadian professionally managed assets than in 2021, and RI’s market share has grown from 47% to 49%.

    Responsible investing is a risk management strategy

    You might think the main motivation for anyone choosing responsible investing is what’s in the ESG acronym: environmental, social and governance factors. And while those are definitely important—14% of survey respondents said their organization’s primary reason for choosing RI was to fulfill its mission, purpose or values—there are many other factors at play. One of the big ones? A common goal for any type of investment: minimizing risk and maximizing value.

    In fact, 35% of organizations surveyed said that minimizing risk over time was their primary reason for choosing responsible investing, and a further 41% ranked it second or third. And 61% said that improving returns over time was one of the top three factors influencing their choice to prioritize ESG investments.

    Another issue that mattered to many respondents was fiduciary duty—their obligation to maximize their clients’ returns—which 26% listed as their organization’s primary motivation.

    Which ESG factors do organizations consider? All of them

    The risks facing our society due to climate change are top of mind for Canadians, and the investors here are no exception. This year, 93% of respondents said that greenhouse gas emissions were a factor they considered in their investment decisions, an increase from 85% in 2022. Climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation were the other top environmental factors mentioned by respondents, at 84% and 76% respectively.

    Top social factors mentioned by respondents include equity, diversity and inclusion (81%), human rights (76%), labour practices (76%), and health and safety (71%). The governance factors that respondents deemed significant included board diversity and inclusion (87%), executive pay (71%) and shareholder rights (70%).

    Many strategies make for comprehensive decisions

    Organizations surveyed use a number of tools to help themselves include ESG factors in their decision-making. These three topped the list:

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    Kat Tancock

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  • Interest rates are high. These are the best places to park your cash | CNN Business

    Interest rates are high. These are the best places to park your cash | CNN Business

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    Editor’s Note: This is an update of an article that originally ran on September 20, 2023.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday chose not to raise its key interest rate, the same decision it took following its September meeting, leaving its benchmark lending rate at its highest level in 22 years.

    Given that the Fed influences — directly or indirectly — interest rates on financial accounts and products throughout the US economy, savers and people with surplus cash still have many opportunities to get a far better return on their money than they’ve had in years — and even more importantly, a return that outpaces the latest readings on inflation.

    Here are low-risk options to get the best yield on funds you plan to use within two years, and also on cash you expect to need within the next two to five years.

    The average annual percentage yield on bank savings accounts was just 0.59%, according to an October 31 survey from Bankrate. That average is kept low by a nearly zero APY at the biggest brick-and-mortar banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, which were each offering rates of just 0.01%.

    But many online, FDIC-insured banks are offering well north of 5% on their high-yield savings accounts.

    Those accounts are a great place to deposit money that you will likely deploy within the next two years — to cover anything from a planned vacation or big purchase to an emergency expense or an unexpected change of circumstance like a job loss.

    While bank deposit account yields can change overnight, they have remained high for months and are likely to continue to do so. “In the last few months, the Fed has signaled that it intends to keep rates higher for longer. … Some banks have responded to this new ‘higher for longer’ expectation by offering promotional rate guarantees on their savings or money market accounts. In the guarantee, a competitive rate is guaranteed to last for several months on the savings or money market account,” said Ken Tumin, founder of DepositAccounts.com.

    An online savings account is what certified financial planner Lazetta Rainey Braxton, co-CEO at 2050 Wealth Partners, calls your “cushion” account. She likes the word “cushion” because it describes the flexibility and options such an account gives you to handle both what you want to do in the near term and what you might need to do.

    Another way high-yield accounts can be useful, Braxton said, is to house money you’ll need to pay off a purchase for which you’ve secured a 0% financing deal for a limited period of time. In that case, you won’t owe interest on your purchase so long as you pay it off in full before the end of the promotion period, which can be anywhere from six to 24 months. In the meantime, the money can grow by 4% to 5% a year in your high-yield account.

    For your regular household bills, Braxton recommends keeping just enough cash to cover a month or two in a regular checking account for fastest access. “Not too much, because [those accounts] won’t yield much,” she said.

    You can always link your high-yield account to your checking account to transfer funds when needed — just know it may take up to 24 hours for the transferred money to show up in your checking account, Braxton noted.

    Money market accounts and funds

    If you don’t want to set up an online savings account at another bank, your own bank may offer you a money market deposit account that pays a higher yield than your regular checking or savings accounts.

    Money market accounts may have higher minimum deposit requirements than a regular savings account, but they are more liquid than a fixed-term certificate of deposit or Treasury bill, meaning they give you access to your money more quickly while still potentially giving you some of the highest yields available, said Doug Ornstein, senior manager for integrated solutions at TIAA Wealth Management.

    But don’t confuse money market accounts with money market mutual funds, which invest in short-term, low- risk debt instruments. As of Oct 31, they had an average 7-day yield of 5.19%, according to the Crane Money Fund Index, which tracks the top 100 taxable money market funds.

    Unlike money market deposit accounts, money market mutual funds are not insured by the FDIC. But if you invest in a money market fund through a brokerage, your overall account is likely to be insured through the Securities Investor Protection Corp (SIPC), which offers protection in the event your brokerage ever goes under.

    Another high-return, low-risk investment that is great for money you likely won’t need to tap for a few months or even a couple of years are certificates of deposit.

    You can get the best returns on CDs through a brokerage such as Schwab, E*Trade or Fidelity. That’s because you can comparison shop for CDs from any number of FDIC-insured banks and will not have to set up individual accounts with each institution.

    To get the greatest benefit from a CD, you have to leave the money invested for a fixed period. You can always access your principal sooner if you need to, but if you do you will forfeit at least some interest.

    As of November 1, CDs listed on Schwab.com with durations of three months, six months, nine months, one year and 18 months were all yielding at least 5.5% .

    Say you invest $10,000 in a six-month CD with a 5.5% APY. At the end of that period, you’ll get your principal back plus nearly $274 in interest when the CD matures, according to Bankrate’s CD calculator. If you put it in a one-year CD you’d earn $555 in interest, while an 18-month term will generate $844.

    If you don’t go through a brokerage you may get a reasonable deal from your primary bank. Tumin said. For example, he noted, Citi came out with an 11-month CD Special with a rate of up to 5.65% APY. But he cautions that with any big bank CD you should take your money out at the end of the term, otherwise your bank may automatically renew it and lock you in to a much lower-yielding CD.

    Another option for money you can leave untouched anywhere from several months to a few years are short-term Treasury bills, which are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.

    Three- and six-month bills had yields of 5.46% and 5.54% respectively on November 1, while nine-month and one-year bills were offering 5.46% and 5.43%, according to rates posted on Schwab.com for a $25,000 investment.

    If you’re someone who manages your portfolio like a hawk, you may feel comfortable buying T-bills on your own from TreasuryDirect.gov. But if you don’t, it might be easier just to buy new issues through your brokerage account or invest in a short-term bond index fund or ETF, said Andy Smith, executive director of financial planning at Edelman Financial Engines.

    And if you’re looking at money that will be needed in three to five years, you might consider a diversified fund of highly rated government and corporate bonds, Ornstein said. Yields on four-year, AAA rated corporate bonds, for instance, were yielding 4.97% this week, and three-year AAA-rated municipal bonds (which are issued by local governments) had rates of 4.59%, according to Schwab.com.

    When deciding on the best accounts and investments for your specific goals and peace of mind, it may pay to consult a fee-only fiduciary adviser — meaning someone who doesn’t get paid a commission to sell you a particular investment.

    What you’ll always want to do is build in flexibility for yourself so you can easily access cash, regardless of your timeline for key goals. “What happens if something changes and you need that down payment a lot sooner — or your parents need medical care fast?” Smith said.

    That means balancing your desire for great yield with a need and desire for ease of access without penalty. Translation: Don’t chase yield for yield’s sake.

    Think of it this way, Ornstein said: Unless you have huge sums to invest or are an institutional investor, the difference between getting a 5.1% yield versus 5% is negligible, and in fact it could even cost you more if there are penalties for taking your money out early. “Most of the time convenience is really important. Give up the 0.1%,” he advised.

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  • Worst October for Stocks in Five Years Has Investors Exiting Market

    Worst October for Stocks in Five Years Has Investors Exiting Market

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    (Bloomberg) — The VIX is at 20, stocks are on the brink of their worst October in five years, and every other day the bond market throws a fit.

    Most Read from Bloomberg

    For equity bulls conditioned to dive in at any sign of weakness, it’s getting to be too much. Across investor categories, they’re pulling money out and hardening a posture that is by some measures the most defensive in over a year.

    Surveys of professional managers show big-money allocators have cut their equities to levels last seen at the depths of the 2022 bear market. Hedge funds just pushed up single-stock shorts for an 11th straight week. Models of investor positioning show everyone from mutual funds to systematic quants reducing equity exposure well below long-term averages.

    Among trading sins, few are as unanimously pilloried as market timing, but that doesn’t keep it from happening in times of stress. Whether the latest exodus is the precursor to a rebound or a protracted period of pain is the big question heading into November.

    “It’s troubling that a market setback as internally deep as the current one hasn’t resulted in more improvement” in sentiment, said Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at the Leuthold Group. “The ‘wall of worry’ accompanying much of the 2023 market action has morphed into a ‘slope of hope.”’

    Dip buyers are hard to find, with the S&P 500 falling more than 1% five different times in October and pushing the index into a correction on Friday. A gauge of projected price swings in the Nasdaq 100 Index hovers near the highest level since March. Even after tech finally caught a break Friday on solid earnings from Amazon.com Inc. and Intel Corp., the Nasdaq 100 closed out the worst two-week drop this year and is poised for its steepest October loss since 2018.

    A poll by the National Association of Active Investment Managers shows money managers rolling back in exposures to October 2022 levels. Equity positioning has fallen below long-term averages for most investor categories, particularly hedge funds and mutual funds, according to Barclays Plc analysis of CFTC data. A nearly three-month ramping of short positions by professional speculators is the longest increase in the history of data, says Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage.

    Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” the Cboe Volatility Index, held above 20 for a second consecutive week after staying below the threshold more than 100 days. Bond volatility gave investors more reason to worry as gyrations of more than 10 basis points on Wednesday and Thursday put further pressure on an earnings season where companies that miss estimates are getting whacked.

    “With yields much higher than they were six months ago, the stock market is going to have to fall to valuation levels that are more in line with historical levels,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. “The most important issue is the very large divergence that has developed between the bond market and the stock market.”

    From a contrarian standpoint, all the gloom is a positive, suggesting latent buying power should sentiment ever flip. Several strategists see that happening. Big reversal in equities last year were closely correlated with changes in institutional and retail positioning. Gains came after investors slashed bullish bets, and declines occurred after buying sprees.

    Strategists at Barclays said lower exposure to stocks, bullish technical signals and seasonality are raising the odds of a year-end rally. It’s a message that was echoed earlier at Bank of America Corp. and Deutsche Bank AG.

    “Fear is uncomfortable, but it’s a healthy dynamic in markets,” said Callie Cox at eToro. “If investors are braced for the worst, they’re less likely to sell all at once if bad headlines do pop up.”

    Predicting market inflection points is impossible, of course. With investors digesting the Fed’s higher-for-longer message and key inflation metrics still showing signs of life, negative sentiment may prove justified. With the Fed shrinking its portfolio of government securities at a rapid pace, it puts pressure on investors looking for clues of how high can yields go.

    “The higher-for-longer message and recent inflation signs suggest that bonds will not be stabilizing any time soon,” said Peter van Dooijeweert, head of defensive and tactical alpha at Man Group. “Related equity weakness off the rate rise may persist — especially if earnings don’t deliver.”

    –With assistance from Lu Wang.

    Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

    ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Here’s the real reason the stock market is so horrid. And, yes, it’s rather spooky.

    Here’s the real reason the stock market is so horrid. And, yes, it’s rather spooky.

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    Some say it’s the fear of stagflation.

    Some say it’s chaos on Capitol Hill.

    Some say it’s turmoil in the Middle East.

    But we all know the real reason the stock market is so crummy, right?

    It’s October! Of course stocks are down!

    It is a bizarre, inexplicable, and yet undeniable, fact that, throughout history, Wall Street has produced almost all of its gains during the winter months of the year — from Nov. 1 to April 30. It is an even more bizarre, inexplicable and yet undeniable fact that the rest of the world’s stock markets have done the same thing.

    The so-called summer months, meaning the half of the year from May 1 to Halloween, have generally given you bupkis or worse. 

    Around the world, over the course of centuries of recorded financial history, stock-market returns have averaged four full percentage points higher from November to April than from May to October, report researchers Ben Jacobsen at Tilburg University and Cherry Yi Zhang at Nottingham University’s Business School in China. This so-called Halloween Effect seems “remarkably robust,” they concluded, after studying the financial returns of 114 different countries going back as far as they could find reliable monthly data — starting with the stock market in 1693 London. 

    Even more extreme: In the 65 countries for which they had extensive data both about the stock market and about short-term interest rates, it’s fair to say you would have been better off selling your stocks on May 1, putting the money in the bank, then taking it out again at the end of October and buying back your stocks (ignoring fees and taxes, of course).

    “In none of the 65 countries for which we have total returns and short-term interest rates available — with the exception of Mauritius — can we reject a Sell in May effect based on our new test. Only for Mauritius do we find evidence of significantly positive excess returns during summer.”

    Italics mine. Mauritius? 

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    is now lower than it was at the end of April. So is the Russell 2000
    RUT
    index of small-cap U.S. stocks. The benchmark international stock index, the MSCI EAFE, is down about 6%. Japan’s Nikkei
    NIY00,
    +1.90%

    is slightly up, as the yen has tanked.

    The S&P 500
    SPX
    is hanging on to a small gain, but that is only because of the early summer gains of a few tech titans. The average S&P stock is down about 2.5% since the end of April — while an investment in no-risk Treasury bills is up more than 2%.

    Meanwhile, let the record show that, over the same period, according to the record keepers at MSCI, the stock market in Mauritius is up 12%.

    Booyah!

    Every time I write about this Halloween or “sell in May” effect, I make the same two points, and I make no apologies for repeating them here, because they are unavoidable.

    The first is that, every spring, after looking at this data, I am tempted to sell all my stocks at the end of April, and every year I don’t, because I think it’s absolutely ridiculous. (And someone on Wall Street who is much smarter than me usually persuades me not to.) And most years I end up kicking myself for not doing it.

    The second is to recall the old economists’ joke: “I don’t care if it works in practice! Does it work in theory?” Selling in May — or, sure, the Halloween Effect — has absolutely no reason that anyone can find for working in theory. But apparently, it works in practice — which is pretty much where we are now.

    Does this mean stocks are going to rally? It’s anyone’s guess. It would be crazy if it were that simple. But, then, the whole Halloween Effect is crazy.

    If history is any guide, now is the time to buy stocks, not sell them, because the next six months are likely to be the time when they make you money. And if history isn’t any guide, well, aren’t we all sunk anyway?

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  • Treasury yields are climbing: ‘There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed-income investments’

    Treasury yields are climbing: ‘There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed-income investments’

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    While stocks get clobbered by rising bond yields, financial experts say everyday investors can roll with the punches by increasing their exposure to longer-term Treasurys and other fixed income — so long as they understand what they are doing.

    Yield — and more of it — has been a great-sounding idea for more people ever since the Federal Reserve started increasing its benchmark interest rate in March 2022.

    High-yield savings accounts, certificates of deposit and money market-mutual funds have all become alluring ways to reap rewards for parking cash. It’s easy to find these products with rates in the 4% and 5% range.

    Treasury bills, which come due within a year, have also been a yield-producing place to put cash. Yields on T-bills
    BX:TMUBMUSD06M
    of varying length are over 5%, up from roughly 4.5% around the start of the year.

    High-yield savings accounts, certificates of deposit and money market-mutual funds have all become alluring ways to reap rewards for parking cash.

    Yet yields have been inducing anxiety lately. For well over a month, the speedy ascent of yields for longer-term Treasury debt and a bond market sell-off have been knocking the stock market for a loop.

    Still, some financial experts say there’s nothing wrong with buying longer-term Treasurys for the person who wants to keep putting their cash to work. Of course, they need to understand the risks and rewards for bonds when interest rates rise and fall.

    Also see: As Treasury yields rise, Wall Street wonders what the Fed will do next. Where should you park your extra cash?

    “Moving from cash to fixed income is the right move right now,” said wealth adviser Marisa Bradbury, managing director of the Florida offices for Sigma Investment Counselors. “You can definitely lock in some decent rates we haven’t seen in a long time.”

    “Before, fixed income was so much a principal protection piece of the portfolio. Now you can actually earn a decent income on it too,” she said.

    “The upside to what’s happened is for savers,” said Matt Sommer, head of specialist consulting group at Janus Henderson Investors. “There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed income investments as there is now.”

    To be sure, there was a time when Treasury yields where far above their current mark. In the early to mid-1980s, the yields on the 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond exceeded 10%. Of course, Sommer and other financial planners are focused on the present and the future because that’s what financial planning is all about. Here’s what they are thinking:

    The ‘barbell’ approach

    When clients building their nest egg want to go all in on T-bills, Sommer is instead advising they use a “barbell” approach that adds a mix of longer-term Treasurys and fixed income too.

    “This is exactly the time investors shouldn’t hibernate on the short end of the [yield] curve,” said Richard Steinberg, chief market strategist and a principal at The Colony Group, a wealth advisory firm. He’s also advising clients to extend their duration on their Treasury and fixed income investments.

    Yields climbed again Friday morning after the stronger than expected September jobs report. The yield on the two-year Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
    rose to almost 5.1%, up from 5.023% Thursday afternoon and up from 4.26% a year ago.

    The yield on the ten-year Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    climbed to 4.86%, up from 4.715% Thursday afternoon, and up from 3.82% a year ago. The yield on the 30-year bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    reached 5.01%, up from 4.88% on Thursday and up from 3.78% a year ago – heading Friday morning for the highest level since August 2007.

    Bond yield and price always move in different directions. When interest rates rise, bond prices decrease and bond yields increase. When rates fall, prices increase and yields decrease. That’s where the note of caution comes in.

    Brace for losses if the Fed keeps increasing interest rates, said David Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, the investment research firm.

    For now, it may be a good time for bond portfolios to beef up the long side. “Part of what we are seeing in the stock market is a reallocation out of stocks and into fixed income,” he said.

    Related: Why rising Treasury yields are upsetting financial markets

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  • Stocks end mostly higher Monday despite resumed U.S. debt selloff

    Stocks end mostly higher Monday despite resumed U.S. debt selloff

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    Stocks closed mostly higher to kick off October as a sharp selloff in longer-dated U.S. government debt resumed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.22%

    fell about 74 points, or 0.2%, ending near 33,433, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.01%

    ended flat at 4,288, while the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    +0.67%

    gained 0.7%. Surging long-term borrowing costs remain a key focus in the final quarter of 2023, with the fear being they could derail the U.S. economy and spark more corporate defaults. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was punching higher to about 4.682% on Monday. Evidence of the debt rout could be found in the popular iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF,
    TLT,
    -1.98%

    which cemented its lowest close since since August 2007 and in the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF,
    AGG,
    -0.70%

    which finished at its lowest since October 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investors in short U.S. government T-bills, however, have been mostly insulated from recent volatility, with yields steady in the 5.5% range, according to TradeWeb data.

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  • Blue Apron notches triple-digit percentage gain while Nike rallies after earnings beat and boosts Foot Locker stock

    Blue Apron notches triple-digit percentage gain while Nike rallies after earnings beat and boosts Foot Locker stock

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    Here are the day’s biggest movers:

    Stock gainers:

    Blue Apron Holding Inc.’s stock
    APRN,
    +133.52%

    rocketed by 134% after food-delivery start-up Wonder said it would acquire the company for $13 a share or about $103 million, just a fraction of its $2 billion in 2017 when the company went public.

    Shares of Nike
    NKE,
    +5.96%

    rallied 7% as the apparel maker, which is also part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    reported better-than-expected earnings, news that also lifted shares of European rivals including Adidas
    ADS,
    +6.22%
    .

    Foot Locker
    FL,
    +2.71%
    ,
    which sells athletic apparel, saw its stock rise by 3%.

    Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.‘s stock
    WBA,
    +6.39%

    rose 6.2% as a top gainer among the Nasdaq 100
    NDX
    as stocks reacted with gains to the latest inflation data.

    Stock decliners:

    Bionomics 
    BNOX,
    -11.87%
    ,
    whose shares jumped 242% on Thursday after reporting positive results from a mid-stage trial of a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder, fell 8% in regular trade.

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  • Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) Stock Forecasts

    Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) Stock Forecasts

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    Analyst Report: Nordstrom, Inc.

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  • Block’s stock has been a laggard lately. Will management shakeup provide a needed jolt?

    Block’s stock has been a laggard lately. Will management shakeup provide a needed jolt?

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    Block Inc.’s stock has been a sizable laggard this year, and now it’s losing the leader of a critical business — albeit one that hasn’t necessarily lived up to investor expectations lately.

    Alyssa Henry, the head of Block’s
    SQ,
    -2.99%

    Square merchant business, is stepping down after a long tenure with the company, and Jack Dorsey will assume her role while continuing to lead Block on the whole, the company announced in a Monday filing.

    The announcement comes as Block shares have declined 18% so far this year, while the S&P 500
    SPX
    has risen 16%. Other payment-technology stocks, including Shift4 Payments Inc.,
    FOUR,
    -0.54%

    Toast Inc.
    TOST,
    +1.34%

    and even PayPal Holdings Inc.
    PYPL,
    -1.98%

    have logged better year-to-date performances.

    Block’s stock closed at its lowest level since April 7, 2020 on Monday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It was down about 2% in after-hours trading.

    The stock is also down 82% from its all-time closing high achieved Aug. 5, 2021.

    See also: PayPal’s ‘fresh start’ isn’t enough to help its stock, analyst cautions

    The performance of the Square merchant business, which includes payment processing and other tools for sellers, has been a sore point for investors recently. Wolfe Research analyst Darrin Peller notes that Block’s second-quarter U.S. gross payment volume (GPV) was up 10% from a year earlier, a four-point spread above Visa Inc.’s
    V,
    +1.49%

    domestic growth. Historically, the spread has been in double digits, he said.

    Additionally, while the 12% overall growth in Square’s GPV “continues to imply that Square is a market-share gainer, we note that this growth spread relative to the industry has trended lower and also suggests slightly softer growth trends versus competitors like Clover,” which is part of Fiserv Inc.
    FI,
    +0.12%
    ,
    whose shares are up 20% on the year.

    “While some of Square’s success over the years should be attributed to Alyssa’s execution, the company’s more recent performance remains a concern for investors (and we suspect for management, internally),” Peller wrote.

    He pointed to “mixed” feedback from investors thus far.

    “Bulls argue that this change is positive, indicating that management is taking change seriously,” Peller said. “Further, it’s worth noting that Jack has been more receptive to cost management and other adjustments. Meanwhile, bears are citing that Alyssa was the ‘face’ of Seller and was more receptive to changes in Square’s business model compared to Jack (particularly around outsourced distribution).”

    Block, for its part, said in its filing that Henry “provided significant contributions” to the company during a tenure that spanned more than nine years.

    UBS downgraded Block shares earlier this month, in part due to concerns about the Square business. Analyst Rayna Kumar said she was concerned about a potential slowdown in gross-profit growth owing to a moderation in consumer spending.

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  • Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW) Stock Forecasts

    Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW) Stock Forecasts

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    Summary

    Lowe’s is the world’s second-largest home improvement retailer, with sales of $97 billion in FY23. Based in Mooresville, North Carolina, the company operated over 1,700 home improvement and hardware stores in the U.S. at the end of FY23. Retail selling space was about 200 million square feet. Home Decor, which includes appliances and paint, was the biggest merchandise division at 35% of FY22 sales. Building Products, including lumber, was 32%; Hardlines, including tools, seasonal, and lawn & garden, was 30%; Other categories represented 3% of sales. About 75% of sales are to individuals and 25% are to maintenance, repair, operations and construction professionals. The states with more than 100 stores at the end of FY22 were Texas, Florida, North Carolina and California. Online sales were 5% of the company’s total in FY20 and rose to about 7% at the end of FY21 and 11% in 4Q23.

    The company’s fiscal year ends on the Friday closest to the end of January. Based on the fiscal calendar, FY17 had a 53rd week, which happens about every five years. The FY23 was also 53-week fiscal year. FY24 will end on February 2, 2024.

    Subscribe to Yahoo Finance Plus Essential for full access

    Exclusive reports, detailed company profiles, and best-in-class trade insights to take your portfolio to the next level

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  • ‘San Francisco is not dead’: Not everyone is shunning the city’s reeling office market

    ‘San Francisco is not dead’: Not everyone is shunning the city’s reeling office market

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    Barry DiRaimondo, chief of SteelWave, a West Coast property developer that in the past half-century has partnering with many of the biggest names in commercial real estate, is looking for diamonds in the rough, distressed office properties located in the American city that many have given up on.

    Others may be shunning San Francisco while it’s down on its luck, but DiRaimondo sees better days ahead, despite the city’s threat of a growing deficit, its fentanyl crisis, homelessness and a reluctant return of office workers to its financial core.

    “Not much is coming up right now,” DiRaimondo said of buying opportunities, while speaking from his office in the heart of San Francisco’s financial district. But he was eager to point out several nearby buildings that could be candidates to buy, at the right price.

    “I think over the next 12 to 18 months, you’re going to see a tsunami,” of distressed office properties, DiRaimondo said.

    Like in many big cities, a wave of office buildings bought at peak prices before the pandemic now have a pile of debt coming due, at much higher rates. But San Francisco’s financial core only recently has begun to show flickers of hope in its weak recovery post-COVID.

    “Whether it’s San Francisco, Oakland or anywhere here, and your debt is rolling, you’re having a conversation with your lender,” DiRaimondo said. “There’s either a restructuring going on or a foreclosure going on.”

    A number of high-profile property owners this year surrendered local properties to lenders, including Westfield’s namesake shopping center downtown and a string of well-known hotels, a blow to the city’s comeback efforts.

    Still, DiRaimondo expects the bulk of property ownership transfers in this boom-and-bust cycle to take place quietly, behind the scenes, often through a building’s debt changing hands. It’s a familiar playbook for veteran real-estate developers like SteelWave and its partners, especially when San Francisco office property values tumble and new loans remains expensive and hard to come by.

    “Office is a nasty word, right now. Especially tech office,” he said. “We are doing something that’s a bit different.”

    Booms, busts

    San Francisco’s history as a boom-and-bust town perhaps is best suited for real-estate developers able to take a bunch of lemons and make lemonade.

    That has been SteelWave’s signature move in the notoriously rough-and-tumble commercial real-estate industry, through its ups and downs. It has bought over $17.5 billion in properties and developments in the past five decades, first under the Legacy Partners Commercial brand before it was renamed in 2015.

    It has partnered with some of the biggest names in commercial real estate, including with Angelo Gordon & Co. in 2021 on two Silicon Valley office buildings, but also distressed debt titans that include Rialto Capital, and with Chenco, one of the largest Chinese-owned U.S. real-estate investment firms.

    Its stronghold is the Bay Area and DiRaimondo is now looking to raise a $500 million fund to buy distressed buildings, including in downtown San Francisco, a place major Wall Street lenders have been backing away from for months.

    “It’s hard to raise equity to buy this stuff right now,” he said, but argues his strategy, which includes expanding its reach to potential investors in the U.A.E., Israel and parts of Europe, will pan out.

    SteelWave’s model of buying a property includes a final tally of costs often three to four times the initial purchase price, due to extensive overhauls.

    “Typically, what we do is buy something, tear it apart, put it back together, lease it, sell it,” DiRaimondo said.

    It’s niche in the distressed world that’s already produced overhauls of buildings from Seattle to Colorado to Los Angeles, places the tech industry wants to lease.

    In the southern California town of Costa Mesa, that meant partnering with Invesco to turn an old newsroom and printing press for the Los Angeles Times into a creative work campus. An opinion piece in 2022 from the newspaper described the revamp as turning, “the glum newspaper architecture into something inviting.”

    Forget being a ‘rent bandit’

    “In New York, people rushed back and refilled the apartments, streets, and subways. Restaurants and stores flooded with customers again,” a team from Moody’s analytics wrote in a recent “tale of two cities” report. “San Francisco, on the other end, battled safety concerns, homelessness, and population exodus which existed before but only became more obvious with barren neighborhoods.”

    SteelWave thinks the old days of landlords raking in top-dollar commercial rents in San Francisco, while adding little back to office buildings, are a thing of the past.

    “You have to have owners who want to create cool work environments to attract people back into the city,” DiRaimondo said of downtown San Francisco’s long slog back from the brink.

    That means buying properties at low prices, but also risking putting money down for major improvements. He isn’t a distressed investors looking to become a “rent bandit,” he says, because the strategy will fail to get quality tenants.

    Like the Moody’s team, DiRaimondo thinks San Francisco eventually will bounce back, but he thinks not before reality hits older office properties.

    Take a “commodity” building downtown, often older and midblock with generic features, that previously might have been worth $750 to $800 a square foot. It now looks worth less than $300 a square foot, he said.

    The early stages of fire-sales have begun already, with the 22-story tower at 350 California, nearby to DiRaimondo’s office, reportedly fetching $200 to $225 a square foot.

    “San Francisco is not dead,” DiRaimondo said. “I think there are opportunities in San Francisco.”

    See: San Francisco’s office market erases all gains since 2017 as prices sag nationally

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  • ‘San Francisco is not dead’: Not everyone is shunning the city’s reeling office market

    ‘San Francisco is not dead’: Not everyone is shunning the city’s reeling office market

    [ad_1]

    Barry DiRaimondo, chief of SteelWave, a West Coast property developer that in the past half-century has partnering with many of the biggest names in commercial real estate, is looking for diamonds in the rough, distressed office properties located in the American city that many have given up on.

    Others may be shunning San Francisco while it’s down on its luck, but DiRaimondo sees better days ahead, despite the city’s threat of a growing deficit, its fentanyl crisis, homelessness and a reluctant return of office workers to its financial core.

    “Not much is coming up right now,” DiRaimondo said of buying opportunities, while speaking from his office in the heart of San Francisco’s financial district. But he was eager to point out several nearby buildings that could be candidates to buy, at the right price.

    “I think over the next 12 to 18 months, you’re going to see a tsunami,” of distressed office properties, DiRaimondo said.

    Like in many big cities, a wave of office buildings bought at peak prices before the pandemic now have a pile of debt coming due, at much higher rates. But San Francisco’s financial core only recently has begun to show flickers of hope in its weak recovery post-COVID.

    “Whether it’s San Francisco, Oakland or anywhere here, and your debt is rolling, you’re having a conversation with your lender,” DiRaimondo said. “There’s either a restructuring going on or a foreclosure going on.”

    A number of high-profile property owners this year surrendered local properties to lenders, including Westfield’s namesake shopping center downtown and a string of well-known hotels, a blow to the city’s comeback efforts.

    Still, DiRaimondo expects the bulk of property ownership transfers in this boom-and-bust cycle to take place quietly, behind the scenes, often through a building’s debt changing hands. It’s a familiar playbook for veteran real-estate developers like SteelWave and its partners, especially when San Francisco office property values tumble and new loans remains expensive and hard to come by.

    “Office is a nasty word, right now. Especially tech office,” he said. “We are doing something that’s a bit different.”

    Booms, busts

    San Francisco’s history as a boom-and-bust town perhaps is best suited for real-estate developers able to take a bunch of lemons and make lemonade.

    That has been SteelWave’s signature move in the notoriously rough-and-tumble commercial real-estate industry, through its ups and downs. It has bought over $17.5 billion in properties and developments in the past five decades, first under the Legacy Partners Commercial brand before it was renamed in 2015.

    It has partnered with some of the biggest names in commercial real estate, including with Angelo Gordon & Co. in 2021 on two Silicon Valley office buildings, but also distressed debt titans that include Rialto Capital, and with Chenco, one of the largest Chinese-owned U.S. real-estate investment firms.

    Its stronghold is the Bay Area and DiRaimondo is now looking to raise a $500 million fund to buy distressed buildings, including in downtown San Francisco, a place major Wall Street lenders have been backing away from for months.

    “It’s hard to raise equity to buy this stuff right now,” he said, but argues his strategy, which includes expanding its reach to potential investors in the U.A.E., Israel and parts of Europe, will pan out.

    SteelWave’s model of buying a property includes a final tally of costs often three to four times the initial purchase price, due to extensive overhauls.

    “Typically, what we do is buy something, tear it apart, put it back together, lease it, sell it,” DiRaimondo said.

    It’s niche in the distressed world that’s already produced overhauls of buildings from Seattle to Colorado to Los Angeles, places the tech industry wants to lease.

    In the southern California town of Costa Mesa, that meant partnering with Invesco to turn an old newsroom and printing press for the Los Angeles Times into a creative work campus. An opinion piece in 2022 from the newspaper described the revamp as turning, “the glum newspaper architecture into something inviting.”

    Forget being a ‘rent bandit’

    “In New York, people rushed back and refilled the apartments, streets, and subways. Restaurants and stores flooded with customers again,” a team from Moody’s analytics wrote in a recent “tale of two cities” report. “San Francisco, on the other end, battled safety concerns, homelessness, and population exodus which existed before but only became more obvious with barren neighborhoods.”

    SteelWave thinks the old days of landlords raking in top-dollar commercial rents in San Francisco, while adding little back to office buildings, are a thing of the past.

    “You have to have owners who want to create cool work environments to attract people back into the city,” DiRaimondo said of downtown San Francisco’s long slog back from the brink.

    That means buying properties at low prices, but also risking putting money down for major improvements. He isn’t a distressed investors looking to become a “rent bandit,” he says, because the strategy will fail to get quality tenants.

    Like the Moody’s team, DiRaimondo thinks San Francisco eventually will bounce back, but he thinks not before reality hits older office properties.

    Take a “commodity” building downtown, often older and midblock with generic features, that previously might have been worth $750 to $800 a square foot. It now looks worth less than $300 a square foot, he said.

    The early stages of fire-sales have begun already, with the 22-story tower at 350 California, nearby to DiRaimondo’s office, reportedly fetching $200 to $225 a square foot.

    “San Francisco is not dead,” DiRaimondo said. “I think there are opportunities in San Francisco.”

    See: San Francisco’s office market erases all gains since 2017 as prices sag nationally

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  • You can invest in market winners and still lose big. Here’s how to avoid the hit.

    You can invest in market winners and still lose big. Here’s how to avoid the hit.

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    Investors should think twice before picking an actively managed mutual fund according to its style category. By “style category,” I’m referring to the widely used method of grouping mutual funds according to the market-cap of the stocks they invest in and where those stocks stand on the spectrum of growth-to-value.

    This matrix traces to groundbreaking research in 1992 by University of Chicago professor Eugene Fama and Dartmouth College professor Ken French, and has since been popularized by investment researcher Morningstar in the form of its well-known style box.

    In urging you to think twice before picking a fund based on this matrix, I’m not questioning the existence of important distinctions between the various styles. Fama and French’s research convincingly showed that there are systematic differences between them. My point is that there also are huge differences within each style as well. You can pick a style that outperforms all others on Wall Street and still lose a lot of money, just as you can pick the worst-performing style and turn a huge profit.

    This points to the two types of risk you face when picking an actively managed fund. You have the risk associated with the fund’s style (category risk) and you also have the risk associated with the particular stocks that the fund’s manager selects (so-called idiosyncratic risk). Idiosyncratic risk often overwhelms category risk, especially over shorter periods.

    To illustrate, consider the midcap-growth style. As judged by the Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF
    VOT,
    this style produced a 28.8% loss in 2022. Yet, according to Morningstar Direct, the best-performing actively managed midcap-growth fund last year produced a gain of 39.5%, while the worst performer lost 67.0%.

    This best-versus-worst performance spread of over 100 percentage points is illustrated in the accompanying chart. Notice that the comparable spread was almost as wide for many of the other styles as well. Though I haven’t done the research to compare 2022’s spreads with those of other calendar years, I have no reason to expect that they on average were any lower.

    The only way to eliminate idiosyncratic risk when investing in particular styles is to invest in an index fund.

    The only way to eliminate idiosyncratic risk when investing in particular styles is to invest in an index fund benchmarked to the style in question. If you are enamored of a particular fund manager and willing to bet he will significantly outperform the category average, just know that you also incur the not-significant idiosyncratic risk that the fund will lag by a large amount.

    The bottom line? By investing in an actively managed fund in a style category, you will be incurring the risk not only of that category itself but also the not-insignificant idiosyncratic risk of that particular fund. Fasten your seatbelt if that’s the path you take.

    Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com

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