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Tag: MSFT

  • Dow ends nearly 400 points higher as tech rally leads stocks to highest close since September

    Dow ends nearly 400 points higher as tech rally leads stocks to highest close since September

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    U.S. stocks ended sharply higher Friday, more than shaking off weakness seen the previous session in the aftermath of a poor Treasury bond auction and fresh signs that interest rates may stay higher for longer.

    Technology stocks drove the bounce, with the Nasdaq Composite leading major indexes to the upside as it and the S&P 500 logged their highest finishes since September.

    What happened

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA
      rose 391.16 points, or 1.2%, to close at 34,283.10.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX
      ended with a gain of 67.89 points, or 1.6%, at 4,415.24.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP
      advanced 276.66 points, or 2%, to finish at 13,798.10.

    The rally left the Dow with a weekly gain of 0.7%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.3% and the Nasdaq booked a rise of 2.4%. The Dow saw its highest close since Sept. 20, while the S&P 500 ended at its highest since Sept. 19 and the Nasdaq at its highest since Sept. 14.

    Market drivers

    Tech was in the driver’s seat. Shares of Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +2.49%

    jumped 2.5%, with the Dow component scoring its third record close in four sessions. Intel Corp. shares
    INTC,
    +2.80%

    rose 2.8% to lead Dow gainers.

    Meanwhile, the S&P 500 tested important chart resistance at the 4,400 to 4,415 level, which marks the confluence of previous resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October drop, according to Matthew Weller, global head of research at Forex.com, in a note (see chart below).


    Forex.com

    “From a bigger picture perspective, bulls will need to see the index conclusively break above 4415 before declaring that the post-July streak of lower lows and lower highs is over,” Weller wrote.

    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended their longest winning streaks since November 2021 on Thursday, after a poorly-received $24 billion sale of 30-year Treasury bonds.

    A calmer bond market may have helped set the tone for stocks. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    fell 3.2 basis points to 4.733%, after it nearly notched its biggest one-day jump since June 2022. The yield still saw a weekly decline, its third straight.

    It was unclear whether the Treasury auction had been affected by a reported ransomware attack against the U.S. unit of the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China that apparently disrupted the U.S. Treasury market.

    See: How ransomware attack on ICBC rattled the Treasury market and shook up a 30-year bond auction

    Thursday’s setback was also tied to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who told an International Monetary Fund panel on Thursday that the central bank was wary of “head fakes” from inflation, and the “2% goal was not assured.”

    Much of Powell’s language was nearly identical to remarks he made on Nov. 1, when investors rallied stocks and bonds after the Fed chair didn’t explicitly commit to a further interest rate hike. But the subsequent rally for stocks after the Nov. 1 Fed meeting, with the S&P 500 jumping more than 6% over eight days, and a 50 basis point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield were “overdone and not governed by facts,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note.

    “Meanwhile, if we think about what the Fed said last week, namely that the rise in the 10-year yield was doing the Fed’s work for it and as a result they may not have to hike rates, then the short/sharp decline in the 10-year yield we’ve seen could essentially remove the reason for the Fed not having to hike rates — and that could put a rate hike back on the table!” he wrote. “That’s essentially what Powell reminded us of yesterday and that, along with the poor Treasury auction, pushed yields higher,” setting up pressure on stocks.

    U.S. consumer sentiment fell in November for the fourth month in a row due to worries about higher interest rates as well as war in the Middle East. The preliminary reading of the sentiment survey declined to 60.4 from 63.8 in October, the University of Michigan said Friday. It’s the weakest reading since May.

    Investors were also tuning into more comments by Fed officials Friday, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said she didn’t know if rates were high enough to bring inflation back down to the central bank’s 2% target.

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  • Amazon Stock Jumps on Earnings Beat. Cloud Results Were Good Enough.

    Amazon Stock Jumps on Earnings Beat. Cloud Results Were Good Enough.

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    Amazon shares rose in late trading Thursday after the company posted better-than-expected financial results for the September quarter.

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  • NBT Bank N A NY Has $31.42 Million Stake in Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFT)

    NBT Bank N A NY Has $31.42 Million Stake in Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFT)

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    NBT Bank N A NY lowered its stake in Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFTFree Report) by 2.1% during the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 92,268 shares of the software giant’s stock after selling 2,020 shares during the quarter. Microsoft comprises 4.5% of NBT Bank N A NY’s portfolio, making the stock its 3rd biggest holding. NBT Bank N A NY’s holdings in Microsoft were worth $31,421,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

    A number of other hedge funds also recently made changes to their positions in MSFT. Vanguard Group Inc. grew its position in shares of Microsoft by 1.0% during the third quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 634,238,715 shares of the software giant’s stock worth $147,714,197,000 after purchasing an additional 6,129,708 shares in the last quarter. State Street Corp boosted its stake in Microsoft by 0.7% in the 3rd quarter. State Street Corp now owns 295,509,547 shares of the software giant’s stock worth $68,824,173,000 after purchasing an additional 1,951,554 shares during the period. FMR LLC grew its holdings in Microsoft by 0.8% during the 1st quarter. FMR LLC now owns 200,523,373 shares of the software giant’s stock valued at $57,810,889,000 after buying an additional 1,537,712 shares in the last quarter. Price T Rowe Associates Inc. MD lifted its holdings in shares of Microsoft by 0.3% in the second quarter. Price T Rowe Associates Inc. MD now owns 195,859,819 shares of the software giant’s stock worth $50,302,677,000 after buying an additional 556,020 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Moneta Group Investment Advisors LLC lifted its holdings in shares of Microsoft by 112,158.6% in the fourth quarter. Moneta Group Investment Advisors LLC now owns 150,187,424 shares of the software giant’s stock worth $36,017,948,000 after buying an additional 150,053,637 shares in the last quarter. 69.20% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

    Insider Activity

    In related news, insider Bradford L. Smith sold 50,000 shares of Microsoft stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, August 1st. The stock was sold at an average price of $337.20, for a total transaction of $16,860,000.00. Following the transaction, the insider now owns 588,084 shares in the company, valued at $198,301,924.80. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through this link. In related news, EVP Kathleen T. Hogan sold 26,815 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, September 1st. The shares were sold at an average price of $327.37, for a total transaction of $8,778,426.55. Following the sale, the executive vice president now directly owns 198,373 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $64,941,369.01. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available through this link. Also, insider Bradford L. Smith sold 50,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, August 1st. The shares were sold at an average price of $337.20, for a total transaction of $16,860,000.00. Following the completion of the sale, the insider now directly owns 588,084 shares in the company, valued at approximately $198,301,924.80. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Insiders have sold a total of 115,049 shares of company stock worth $38,195,619 over the last quarter. 0.03% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.

    Microsoft Stock Performance

    Shares of MSFT stock opened at $340.67 on Thursday. Microsoft Co. has a 52-week low of $213.43 and a 52-week high of $366.78. The company’s 50 day moving average is $326.19 and its 200 day moving average is $324.09. The firm has a market cap of $2.53 trillion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.16, a PEG ratio of 2.35 and a beta of 0.91. The company has a quick ratio of 1.75, a current ratio of 1.77 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20.

    Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFTGet Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, October 24th. The software giant reported $2.99 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $2.65 by $0.34. The firm had revenue of $56.52 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $54.52 billion. Microsoft had a net margin of 34.15% and a return on equity of 38.70%. Microsoft’s revenue was up 12.8% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period last year, the firm posted $2.35 EPS. On average, sell-side analysts anticipate that Microsoft Co. will post 10.9 EPS for the current fiscal year.

    Microsoft Increases Dividend

    The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, December 14th. Stockholders of record on Thursday, November 16th will be paid a dividend of $0.75 per share. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Wednesday, November 15th. This represents a $3.00 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.88%. This is a boost from Microsoft’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.68. Microsoft’s payout ratio is currently 30.96%.

    Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

    Several equities analysts recently weighed in on MSFT shares. Bank of America raised their target price on shares of Microsoft from $340.00 to $405.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Wednesday, July 19th. Argus lifted their target price on Microsoft from $371.00 to $390.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Monday, July 31st. Loop Capital assumed coverage on Microsoft in a research note on Tuesday, October 17th. They set a “buy” rating and a $425.00 price target for the company. UBS Group raised Microsoft from a “neutral” rating to a “buy” rating and lifted their price objective for the stock from $345.00 to $400.00 in a research note on Friday, July 14th. Finally, Piper Sandler raised their target price on shares of Microsoft from $400.00 to $425.00 and gave the company an “overweight” rating in a report on Wednesday. Five investment analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and thirty-five have given a buy rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $379.93.

    Check Out Our Latest Stock Report on Microsoft

    Microsoft Profile

    (Free Report)

    Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers office, exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft viva, and Microsoft 365 copilot; and office consumer services, such as Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, Office licensed on-premises, and other office services.

    Recommended Stories

    Want to see what other hedge funds are holding MSFT? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFTFree Report).

    Institutional Ownership by Quarter for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)

    Receive News & Ratings for Microsoft Daily – Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts’ ratings for Microsoft and related companies with MarketBeat.com’s FREE daily email newsletter.

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  • Dow opens higher, lifted by Microsoft’s post-earnings rally

    Dow opens higher, lifted by Microsoft’s post-earnings rally

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    The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened higher on Wednesday as a post-earnings rally in shares of Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +3.71%

    helped lift the blue-chip gauge while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite sunk. The Dow gained 91 points, or 0.3%, at to trade at 33,218, according to FactSet data. Meanwhile, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.02%

    shed 22 points, or 0.5%, to 4,225, and the Nasdaq
    COMP,
    -1.43%

    fell by 135 points, or 1.1%, to 13,000. The Dow had snapped a four-day losing streak on Tuesday as U.S. stocks rebounded following the worst stretch of the year.

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  • Microsoft and Alphabet results show Wall Street only cares about AI

    Microsoft and Alphabet results show Wall Street only cares about AI

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    Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. both reported mostly strong results Tuesday, but the disparate reactions from investors showed that Wall Street only cares about artificial intelligence right now.

    While Microsoft shares
    MSFT,
    +0.37%

    rose 4% in after-hours trading following the company’s latest report, Alphabet shares
    GOOG,
    +1.61%

    GOOGL,
    +1.69%

    dropped 6% as Wall Street got the sense that AI is manifesting differently in the companies’ cloud businesses.

    Microsoft surprised investors with 28% constant-currency growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, above the company’s own forecast and the projection for 25.6% growth that analysts were modeling on average. While Microsoft continues to see “optimization” challenges as customers remain conscious about their spending, the company is also benefiting from AI tailwinds in the cloud.

    Companies looking to beef up their AI offerings are often looking to add AI services for their customers through additional cloud services, so they don’t have to do as much internal development themselves. In addition, AI offerings ranging from chatbots to tools that can streamline the writing of reports require ever more computing power, and both Azure and Google Cloud are starting to offer new software applications to address those needs.

    Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella called AI a “unique and different” factor that was helping Azure trends. “Given our leadership position, we are seeing complete new project starts, which are AI projects,” he said in response to an analyst question about the sustainability of cloud growth rates.

    In addition, Microsoft, which has invested heavily in ChatGPT-creator OpenAI, offers an Azure OpenAI service that more than 18,000 organizations are now using. Some of these customers are new to Azure.

    Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood forecast that Azure revenue growth should be around 26% in constant currency in the fiscal second quarter, driven by new workload trends and with the growing contributions from AI.

    Investors seem less confident that Alphabet is seeing the same tailwinds in its Google Cloud business, especially as that segment showed its slowest quarterly growth since Google began breaking out results that way back in 2019. Cloud revenue of $8.4 billion, with growth of 22%, was $250 million shy of consensus estimates on Wall Street, according to Colin Sebastian, an analyst with Baird. That overshadowed an upbeat performance in the company’s advertising business.

    When one analyst asked Alphabet executives about the deceleration in the revenue growth of its cloud business, Chief Executive Sundar Pichai was vague but said that customers are being selective of where they are spending their IT budgets.

    “On cloud, what I would say is overall, we have definitely started seeing customers looking to optimize spend,” Pichai said. “We leaned into it to help customers, given some other challenges they were facing, and so that was a factor.”

    Alphabet is seeing “a lot of interest in AI,” but it remains to be seen whether that’s contributing materially to its financial performance just yet.

    “Google Cloud missed consensus revenue expectations (although in line with Baird) on slowing growth, and we believe consistent with the view that newer Gen-AI workloads will take time to move the needle,” Sebastian wrote in a note to clients.

    Insider Intelligence senior analyst Max Willens added that Google Cloud is facing tough competition, and while the business seems to have traction with AI startups that “may bear fruit in the long run, it is not currently helping Google Cloud enough to satisfy investors.”

    Wall Street clearly is looking to AI to fuel better growth rates and help offset sluggish macroeconomic trends. The poster child for that dynamic is Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +1.60%
    ,
    which is expected to single-handedly drive earnings growth for the information technology sector thanks to booming demand for its AI hardware.

    Read: Big-tech results will decide ‘where we go from here’ amid investor caution. They would fall if it weren’t for this one company

    Given economic pressures, it’s becoming obvious that companies without much of an AI story to contribute this quarter will continue to fall out of favor with investors.

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  • Microsoft Tops Estimates, Powered by Cloud Business

    Microsoft Tops Estimates, Powered by Cloud Business

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    Microsoft shares were trading higher after the company posted better-than-expected financial results for its September quarter, aided by better performance than expected from the company’s cloud computing business.

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  • Microsoft’s Activision Deal Gets Green Light From UK Regulator

    Microsoft’s Activision Deal Gets Green Light From UK Regulator

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    By Kim Mackrael

    Microsoft’s acquisition of videogame company Activision Blizzard won approval from U.K. competition authorities, clearing a path for the companies to close the $75 billion deal after a lengthy struggle with regulators.

    The U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority said Friday that the proposed deal no longer poses a major threat to competition in cloud gaming. The shift comes after Microsoft offered to restructure the deal by forfeiting cloud-streaming rights for “Call of Duty” and other popular Activision franchises in much of the world.

    -Sarah E. Needleman contributed to this article

    Write to Kim Mackrael at Kim.mackrael@wsj.com

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  • Ford, Microsoft, Delta, Walgreens, Birkenstock, and More Stock Market Movers

    Ford, Microsoft, Delta, Walgreens, Birkenstock, and More Stock Market Movers

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    Stock futures posted modest gains Thursday ahead of a report likely to show that U.S. inflation fell in September as gasoline price growth slowed and used-car costs declined.

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  • Amazon, Microsoft Cloud Services Face UK Competition Probe

    Amazon, Microsoft Cloud Services Face UK Competition Probe

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    By Michael Susin

    The U.K.’s communications regulator has referred the cloud market to the country’s competition watchdog for an investigation, alleging that certain features by market leaders Amazon and Microsoft could limit competition.

    The Office of Communications regulator said Thursday that a market study found that high fees for transferring data, committed spend discounts and technical restrictions could make it difficult for customers to switch cloud provider or to use multiple providers.

    “Some U.K. businesses have told us they’re concerned about it being too difficult to switch or mix and match cloud provider, and it’s not clear that competition is working well. So, we’re referring the market to the [Competition and Markets Authority] for further scrutiny, to make sure business customers continue to benefit from cloud services,” Ofcom’s director responsible for the market study, Fergal Farragher, said.

    The regulator said Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft had a combined market share in the U.K. of 70% to 80% in 2022.

    The CMA will now start an independent investigation to decide whether there is an impact on competition.

    Neither Amazon nor Microsoft were immediately available for comment.

    Write to Michael Susin at michael.susin@wsj.com

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  • Micron sees nine-figure data-center sales in 2024, but another quarter of negative margins

    Micron sees nine-figure data-center sales in 2024, but another quarter of negative margins

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    Micron Technology Inc. is far from out of the woods yet when it comes to profitability as quarterly results came in better than expected Wednesday, but the memory-chip maker’s chief executive was upbeat about data-center sales in 2024 as AI fever rages on.

    While the Boise, Idaho-based chip maker topped expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter, it forecast a loss of $1.14 to $1 a share on revenue of $4.2 billion to $4.6 billion for the fiscal first quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet, however, had forecast, on average, a loss of 88 cents a share on revenue of $4.24 billion.

    Micron also expects negative gross margins for a fourth consecutive quarter in the fiscal first quarter, between a 6% and 2% loss, which Micron Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy said on the call assumed no additional inventory write-down because of memory-chip pricing.

    Following gross margins of 22.9% reported in the first quarter of fiscal 2023, gross margins swung sharply to negative-31.4% as Micron reported its largest quarterly loss on record in March, writing off more than $1.4 billion in inventory. Those margins improved to negative-16.1% in the third quarter. On Wednesday, those continued to improve sequentially, to negative-9.1% in the fourth quarter.

    Additionally, the company said it is still experiencing headwinds from China’s cybersecurity review of the company’s products, which surfaced in March.

    Micron
    MU,
    +0.40%

    shares declined nearly 4% after hours Wednesday following a 0.4% rise to close the regular session at $68.21.

    On a conference call, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra told analysts he expects revenue from high-bandwidth memory chips designed for data centers “to begin in early 2024,” and that the company is “very much still on track for meaningful revenue, several hundred million dollars in our fiscal year 2024.”

    Back in July, Micron and Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +1.33%

    announced that Nvidia was using Micron’s HBM3 Gen2 high-bandwidth memory 1-beta DRAM chips in its AI data-center products. As the AI frenzy has raged on all year, data centers that must handle the enormous amounts of data and throughput required by AI models like Open AI’s ChatGPT, backed by Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +0.21%
    ,
    have boosted demand for hardware.

    Micron specializes in making DRAM and NAND memory chips. DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, is the type of memory commonly used in PCs and data-center servers, while NAND chips are the flash memory chips used in smaller devices like smartphones and USB drives.

    Read: Micron’s stock might be an excellent play for AI investors who want to diversify beyond Nvidia

    In the company’s last earnings report, Mehrotra called the bottom in the memory-chip market, but warned that smartphone and PC weakness could cut into AI gains. This time around, the CEO said smartphone and PC markets were “now at normal levels.”

    Read: AI will accelerate Micron’s recovery, analyst says

    For the fiscal fourth quarter, Micron reported a loss of $1.43 billion, or $1.31 a share, versus net income of $1.49 billion, or $1.35 a share, in the year-ago period.

    The adjusted loss, which excludes stock-based-compensation expenses and other items, was $1.07 a share, versus adjusted earnings of $1.45 a share in the year-ago period. Revenue fell to $4.01 billion from $6.64 billion in the year-ago quarter.

    Analysts had forecast Micron to report a fourth-quarter loss of $1.15 a share on revenue of $3.95 billion.

    Micron shares are up 36.5% year to date, compared with a 32.8% gain by the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    an 11.3% gain by the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    and a 25.1% rise in the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP.

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  • Microsoft’s Revised Activision Deal Addresses Competition Concerns, Says UK Regulator

    Microsoft’s Revised Activision Deal Addresses Competition Concerns, Says UK Regulator

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    By Elena Vardon

    Microsoft’s proposals to modify its $75 billion Activision acquisition address the concerns with the U.K. antitrust authority, the regulator said in a provisional decision Friday.

    The U.K. Competition and Markets Authority said that the new deal submitted by Microsoft should lessen any harm to competition in cloud gaming.

    The CMA said that the restructured transaction–through which Activision would sell its cloud gaming rights to Ubisoft–opens the door to the deal being cleared.

    The regulator is consulting on remedies put forward by Microsoft to address residual concerns it has before making a final decision, it said.

    The CMA opened a consultation on these remedies which will last until Oct. 6, it added.

    Write to Elena Vardon at elena.vardon@wsj.com

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  • Microsoft proposes Ubisoft license to win U.K. approval for Activision Blizzard buyout

    Microsoft proposes Ubisoft license to win U.K. approval for Activision Blizzard buyout

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    Microsoft will change the terms of its Activision Blizzard buyout offer in a new effort to win approval from the U.K. competition regulator.

    The regulator, the Competition and Markets Authority, said Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +1.71%

    will now license Activision’s global cloud streaming to Ubisoft Entertainment, for any game available now or in the next 15 years. Ubisoft, in its own release, highlighted the ability to stream the popular Call of Duty franchise.

    Financial terms were not released, but the regulator said Ubisoft will make a one-off payment and also agree a market-based wholesale pricing mechanism.

    The license will be exclusive except in the European economic area. Ubisoft would have the ability to require Microsoft to provide versions of games on operating systems other than Windows, such as Linux.

    Ubisoft shares
    UBI,
    +5.80%

    jumped nearly 5% in opening Paris trade.

    The regulator now says it’s inviting comments on the structure of the new offer. “This is not a green light. We will carefully and objectively assess the details of the restructured deal and its impact on competition, including in light of third-party comments,” said the regulator’s CEO, Sarah Cardell.

    Microsoft last year agreed to buy Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, or $95 per share. Activision stock
    ATVI,
    +0.28%

    closed Monday at $90.72.

    In a blog post, Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith said it anticipates the CMA review processes can be completed before the 90-day extension in its acquisition agreement with Activision Blizzard expires on Oct.18. He also said the deal with Ubisoft was carefully structured not to interfere with an existing deal struck with European regulators.

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  • Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq post gains as big tech stocks rebound

    Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq post gains as big tech stocks rebound

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    U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Dow flipping positive near the closing bell, as technology stocks bounced back. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA rose about 26 points, or 0.1%, ending near 35,308, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index SPX scored a 0.6% gain and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP closed up 1.1%, booking its best daily percentage climb since July 28, according to FactSet data. The S&P 500’s information technology sector outperformed with a 1.9% gain, while the communication services segment rose 1%. The rally saw shares of Meta Platforms META, Apple Inc. AAPL, Alphabet…

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  • The ‘narrow breadth’ chorus has fallen silent. What broadening participation in stock-market rally means for investors.

    The ‘narrow breadth’ chorus has fallen silent. What broadening participation in stock-market rally means for investors.

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    A wider swath of stocks have joined the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.15%
    ’s
    upswing after the so-called Magnificent Seven — Apple
    AAPL,
    +0.32%
    ,
    Amazon
    AMZN,
    +1.11%
    ,
    Alphabet
    GOOG,
    +0.08%
    ,
    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    -0.72%
    ,
    Meta
    META,
    -2.11%
    ,
    Nvidia
    NVDA,
    -0.04%

    and Tesla
    TSLA,
    +0.37%

    — single-handedly propelled the large-cap index into a bull market in early June, with the gauge now up more than 28% from its low notched last October and rising to new highs since April 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. 

    Hopes that the U.S. economy could pull off a soft landing and avoid a recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes, as well as receding inflation pressures and expectations for the end of the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign, have underpinned a notable expansion in market breadth over the past two months, according Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. 

    The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index
    SP500EW,
    +0.27%
    ,
    which lagged behind the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 index for most of the year, has now kicked back into gear and staged an impressive comeback in July. The equal-weighted index and the S&P 500 each advanced 3.1% this month, according to FactSet data. 

    The equal weighting eliminates the distortion of the megacap components and significantly changes several sector weightings in the S&P 500, including technology, which drops from around 29% on the SPX to only 13% on the equal-weighted index, said Turnquist in a Friday note. Meanwhile, the industrials sector has the biggest increase in weight, jumping from 9% on the SPX to 16% on the equal-weighted index.

    Another way to quantify and compare market breadth is to look at the percentage of stocks on an index trading above their longer-term 200-day moving average (dma), Turnquist said. In general, if a stock is trading above its 200 dma, it is considered to be in an uptrend, and if the price is below the 200 dma, it is considered in a downtrend. Furthermore, a higher percentage of stocks above their 200 dma implies buying pressure is more widespread — suggesting the market’s advance is likely sustainable.

    The chart below shows that 73% of stocks within the S&P 500 are trading above their 200 dma as of July 27, which compares to only 48% at the end of 2022. Moreover, the composition of breadth leadership has turned increasingly bullish. The highest sector readings include technology, industrials, energy, and consumer discretionary.

    “So not only is breadth on the index robust, but cyclical stocks are also leading,” said Turnquist. 

    SOURCE: LPL RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG

    Wall Street often views broadening participation in the stock-market rally as a measure of health and a constructive sign of the sustainability of the bull market. 

    Jimmy Lee, founder and chief executive officer of The Wealth Consulting Group said he is seeing “a lot of money” flowing into areas that are not the Magnificent Seven such as stocks in the industrials, financials, materials, energy and even real-estate sectors.

    The S&P 500’s industrials sector
    SP500.20,
    +0.23%

    climbed 2.9% in July, while the financials sector
    SP500.40,
    +0.44%

    advanced over 4.7% this month. The S&P 500’s energy sector
    SP500.10,
    +2.00%
    ,
    which had been the biggest laggard when the rest of the markets exited the bear market in June, jumped 7.3% month to date after the U.S. oil benchmark
    CL.1,
    -0.20%

    CL00,
    -0.20%

    closed above $80 a barrel for the first time since April. 

    Meanwhile, the tech-heavy S&P 500’s communication-services sector
    SP500.50,
    -0.03%

    rose 6.7% in July, while the consumer-discretionary sector
    SP500.25,
    +0.56%

    gained 2.4% and the information-technology sector
    SP500.45,
    +0.13%

    was up 2.6%, according to FactSet data. 

    See: Stocks are on a seemingly unstoppable hot streak, but this bond-market ‘tipping point’ could see it end in a hurry

    Stephen Hoedt, managing director of equity and fixed income research at Key Private Bank, told MarketWatch in an interview that he doesn’t see “any reason to get bearish here with the fundamentals that are underlying,” which gives investors reason to rotate toward the more cyclical areas such as energy, financials and industrials, while broadening the market away from just being concentrated in the megacap technology names. 

    “The growth has been a surprise this year for everyone, so that’s what the market got wrong coming into this year. When I look at growth, nominal GDP growth translates directly into earnings and we’ve seen earnings continue to surprise on the upside,” Hoedt said. 

    Hoedt pointed to the direction of the 12-month forward earnings estimate for the S&P 500 as an important indicator. “As long as the direction of the 12-month forward earnings number for the S&P 500 is going up, it’s really, really difficult to be bearish on the stock market,” he said. “It seems to me that we may start to see another inflection higher in forward earnings revisions that take into account this stronger growth environment that we’re in.” 

    However, the broadening of the stock-market rally and the bullish sentiment were also driving some on Wall Street to believe stocks are overbought and due for a correction. 

    Lee said there’s still too much pessimism out there and too much concern that some investors haven’t chased the market yet. “In the second half of this year, when the Fed does stop raising rates and if the economy stays out of recession, you can see major money — trillions of dollars moving from the money market into equities and other risk assets,” he told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Friday.

    “When that happens, it’s probably going to push valuations even further. So I would imagine when that happens is when you can expect more of a correction to occur, but I think that we still have more room to go before that happens.” 

    U.S. stocks ended higher on Monday, finishing up July on a positive note. Three major stock indexes rallied this month, with the S&P 500 up 3.1% and booking its fifth monthly gain. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +0.21%

    gained 4.1% month to date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.28%

    advanced 3.4%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. 

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  • Microsoft earnings top estimates, but stock falls as execs detail AI’s costs

    Microsoft earnings top estimates, but stock falls as execs detail AI’s costs

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    Microsoft Corp. easily topped profit and revenue expectations for its latest quarter, though its shares were moving more than 3% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the company discussed the year ahead.

    The technology giant has won favor on Wall Street for its positioning in the artificial-intelligence revolution, though Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said on Tuesday’s earnings call that “even with strong demand and a leadership position,” Microsoft’s
    MSFT,
    +1.70%

    “growth from our AI services will be gradual.” Microsoft’s AI for its Azure cloud-computing business needs to ramp, and the company is working toward the general availability of its Copilot productivity product.

    Microsoft’s AI revenue impacts will thus be weighted toward the second half of the new fiscal year that just began, she continued. Meanwhile, she expects that Microsoft’s capital expenditures will rise sequentially each quarter “as we scale to meet demand signals.”

    Hood’s commentary came as Microsoft posted fiscal fourth-quarter results Tuesday afternoon that showed a 15% jump in revenue for the company’s cloud-computing segment, which it calls Intelligent Cloud. Revenue for the segment came in at $24.0 billion, while analysts had been anticipating $23.8 billion. The growth rate was 17% on a currency-neutral basis.

    The company said revenue for Azure and other cloud services was up 26%, or 27% in constant currency. Microsoft’s forecast had been for 26% to 27% in constant-currency Azure sales growth, while the company posted 31% constant-currency growth on the metric in the March period. The FactSet consensus was for 27% growth in constant currency.

    “While we believe the Street was hoping for Azure growth more in the ~28% range, we believe the consumption part of the business held up well,” Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne said in a note to clients.

    For the September quarter, Microsoft anticipates 25% to 26% in constant-currency Azure growth.

    The cloud migration is still in the “early innings,” Chief Executive Satya Nadella said on the call, while also highlighting a “new world of AI driving a set of new workloads.”

    “We think of that, again, being pretty expansive from a TAM [total addressable market] opportunity and we’ll play it out,” he continued, though the company is also up against the “law of large numbers” given the massive scale of its cloud business.

    The company generated fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $20.1 billion, or $2.69 a share, compared with $16.7 billion, or $2.23 a share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts tracked by FactSet were modeling $2.55 a share.

    Overall revenue for Microsoft climbed to $56.2 billion from $51.9 billion, whereas analysts had been expecting $55.5 billion.

    See also: Microsoft bulls are excited as company reveals pricing for AI offering

    Microsoft logged $18.3 billion in revenue for its productivity and business processes unit, up 10% from a year before, or up 12% in constant currency. That part of the business includes LinkedIn and both commercial and consumer versions of Office. Analysts had been looking for $18.1 billion.

    Revenue for the More Personal Computing segment, which includes Windows and Xbox content and services, dropped 4% to $13.9 billion and was off 3% on a constant-currency basis. The FactSet consensus was for $13.6 billion.

    Nadella, meanwhile, expressed optimism about the eventual opportunities brought upon by Microsoft’s Copilot offerings.

    “I do think people are going to look at how can they complement their [operating-expense] spend with essentially these Copilots in order to drive more efficiency and, quite frankly, even reduce the burden and drudgery of work on their OpEx and their people and so on,” he said.

    Evercore’s Materne called the overall results “solid” amid “a lot of macro headwinds.”  Microsoft’s investment story “gets stronger in [the second half of the calendar year] as some optical headwinds reverse and [comparisons] soften, and Microsoft’s position in the enterprise market continues to get stronger as customers look to consolidate spending,” he wrote.

    Read: Amazon finally is nearing a bottom on this key measure, analyst says

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  • F5, Logitech, Cadence Design, GE, GM, Microsoft, Alphabet, and More Stock Market Movers

    F5, Logitech, Cadence Design, GE, GM, Microsoft, Alphabet, and More Stock Market Movers

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  • Here are 4 of the biggest changes to the Nasdaq 100 from Monday’s special rebalancing

    Here are 4 of the biggest changes to the Nasdaq 100 from Monday’s special rebalancing

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    New weightings for the largest stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are taking effect on Monday following the index’s second “special rebalancing” in 25 years.

    See: Nasdaq rebalancing is coming, and it’s boosting interest in Friday’s $2.3 trillion option expiration

    These new levels were shared ahead of time with Goldman Sachs Group Chief U.S. Equity Analyst David Kostin. Kostin and his team have published a report on the changes that was shared with Goldman clients and the press last week.

    Here are four of the most important shifts highlighted in Kostin’s note:

    • The seven stocks with the heaviest weightings in the Nasdaq 100 are seeing their collective weight reduced to 44% from 56%.

    • At the sector level, information technology will continue to account for roughly half of the index, but the sector’s weight will decline to 49% from 51%.

    • Apple Inc.
      AAPL,
      +0.56%

      and Microsoft Corp.
      MSFT,
      +0.19%

      will remain the index’s largest constituents, but their index weights will be reduced by roughly four percentage points — to 12% and 10%, respectively.

    • Broadcom’s index weight is seeing the biggest increase, and will see its weighting increase by 64 basis points to 3%.

    The Goldman analyst summarized how the new weightings would impact the index’s 25 largest constituents in the chart below.


    GOLDMAN SACHS

    According to Nasdaq representatives, the Nasdaq 100 is the most popular of the exchange’s indexes. So far this year, it has outperformed the Nasdaq Composite, a broader index including every company traded on the exchange. The Nasdaq 100 is up 41.2%, to the Composite’s 34.4%, according to FactSet data.

    EPFR data show $261 billion in mutual fund and exchange-traded fund assets are benchmarked to the Nasdaq 100, including the Invesco QQQ Trust Series
    QQQ,
    +0.11%
    ,
    better known by its ticker QQQ. More than $250 billion of this money is invested in passive benchmark-tracking strategies.

    Nasdaq decided to implement the special rebalancing earlier this month to try and ward off concentration risk after its seven largest components surged earlier this year. According to its official index-management methodology, Nasdaq aims to keep the combined weighting of its largest constituents to 40%.

    Kostin said he doesn’t expect these changes to have much of an impact on markets, arguing that the previous special rebalancing didn’t move the index much, either.

    Both the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite were slightly lower on Monday as big-tech names continued to lag the S&P 500 and suddenly high-flying Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.57%
    ,
    just like they did last week.

    Nasdaq 100-tracking QQQ
    QQQ,
    +0.11%

    was off by 0.2% at $374 per share Monday morning, while the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +0.19%

    was down 0.2% at 14, 013.

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  • U.S. stocks open higher ahead of Big Tech earnings, central-bank decisions

    U.S. stocks open higher ahead of Big Tech earnings, central-bank decisions

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    U.S. stock indexes opened higher on Monday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average looking to extend its 10-session winning streak. Investors are awaiting a batch of earnings reports from megacap growth and technology companies while eying on monetary-policy decisions from the world’s major central banks amid continued signs that inflation is easing. The Dow industrials
    DJIA,
    +0.52%

    rose 88 points, or 0.3%, to 35,319. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.40%

    gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +0.19%

    advanced 0.5%. Corporate results due on Monday include Domino’s Pizza
    DPZ,
    +0.12%
    ,
    Whirlpool
    WHR,
    +0.69%
    ,
    Logitech
    LOGI,
    -0.80%

    and NXP Semiconductors
    NXPI,
    -1.13%
    .
    Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    +1.26%

    and Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +0.39%

    will report their numbers on Tuesday; Meta
    META,
    -0.90%

    on Wednesday; and Intel
    INTC,
    -1.15%

    on Thursday. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points after its policy meeting this week. Policymakers will release a statement announcing their decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m..

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  • AMC, Chevron, Tesla, Domino’s, Microsoft, and More Stock Market Movers

    AMC, Chevron, Tesla, Domino’s, Microsoft, and More Stock Market Movers

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  • With Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet earnings hanging on AI, more investors are asking: ‘How are you going to pay for that?’

    With Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet earnings hanging on AI, more investors are asking: ‘How are you going to pay for that?’

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    Shares of big tech companies have coasted through this year on AI euphoria, but as Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. prepare to report results this week, some investors are starting to ask how much those AI advancements might actually cost.

    Those questions have surfaced after several months during simply saying “AI” on earnings calls appeared to be enough for investors. If the economy sours though — as some expect in the second half of this year or next year — big tech’s AI ambitions could go with it.

    “Given the exorbitant costs associated with the development, hosting and serving of AI products, many investors are concerned about the potential for [fiscal 2024] commentary regarding a material increase,” Jefferies analyst Brent Thill wrote, according to a MarketWatch earnings preview for Microsoft’s
    MSFT,
    -0.89%

    results.

    Microsoft and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +0.69%

    GOOG,
    +0.65%
    ,
    which both report on Tuesday, have been in heated competition in the world of online search and digital advertisements, as Microsoft leans more on its massive investments in research lab OpenAI to muscle up its own search capabilities. But a Deutsche Bank analyst said that so far, Google appears to have the upper hand in that battle.

    Still, for Microsoft, after a broader pullback in IT spending earlier this year, analysts have found more to like about its cloud-computing business — namely market-share gains, generally-sturdy demand, and whatever ways AI can fit into the equation. Wolfe Research analyst Alex Zukin, in a recent note, said he believed “the focus will turn from what is good enough, to how good can it be,” as Microsoft moves deeper into AI.

    “How good can it be?” might also be a question for Meta
    META,
    -2.73%
    ,
    which reports second-quarter results on Wednesday.

    Shares of the social-media company have more than doubled in value so far this year. JMP analyst Andrew Boone, in a recent note, cited likely improvements in Meta’s digital ad segment, better engagement, and a broader advertising backdrop that “appears to be stable” after a slowdown in spending, Still, there are signs that the initial user attraction to Threads, Meta’s answer to Twitter, has fizzled.

    This week in earnings

    For the week ahead, 166 companies in the S&P 500 index report results, including 12 from the Dow, according to FactSet. Among them are Domino’s Pizza Inc.
    DPZ,
    -0.62%
    ,
    which now plans to deliver pizza via Uber Eats after years of chafing at third-party delivery apps. Industrials General Electric Co.
    GE,
    -0.82%

    and 3M Co.
    MMM,
    +0.04%

    also report, after 3M agreed to pay $10.3 billion to settle accusations it was responsible for so-called “forever chemicals” in drinking water.

    Quick-service restaurant chains Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
    CMG,
    +0.20%

    and McDonald’s Corp.
    MCD,
    -0.51%

    also report, with BofA analysts expecting an “almost normal” quarter for the industry, after spending at chain restaurants grew last month and costs for some ingredients started to ease following two years of supply disruptions. Auto makers General Motors Co.
    GM,
    -1.81%

    and Ford Motor Co.
    F,
    -0.71%

    also report, and while parts shortages that have constrained vehicle production have shown signs of fading, so has electric-vehicle “euphoria.”

    The calls to put on your calendar

    Visa, Mastercard: Earlier this month executives from the big banks said U.S. consumers are generally doing OK despite still-rampant inflation, although perhaps less OK than in prior months. This week credit-card giants Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. report results on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. The profit, sales and credit-card volume figures from Visa
    V,
    -0.15%

    and Mastercard
    MA,
    -0.14%

    will offer more specifics on consumer spending, as vacations and concerts compete with more expensive and more pressing needs, like groceries and other bills.

    Shares of Visa and Mastercard are up so far this year, but some analysts said there could be more room investors to step in. SVB MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis recently said shares of both companies were hovering at “unusually attractive” levels.

    The number to watch

    Mattel outlook, and anything ‘Barbie’-related: The “Barbie” movie hit theaters nationwide on Friday. And after an epic marketing campaign, Mattel Inc.’s investors, banking on the film to drive a rebound for the toy maker during the second half of this year, will be zeroed in on the box-office results following the film’s debut on Friday.

    Expectations for the film are huge. And when Mattel
    MAT,
    -0.42%

    reports second-quarter results on Wednesday, executives could offer the first answers to some big questions: Has the film helped revive toy sales? Sales for anything else? Will the “Barbenheimer” effect help or hurt financials?

    The film — directed by Greta Gerwig, written Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, and starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling — brings together two writers with indie bona fides and two actors with mainstream starpower. Reviews so far have been favorable, and Barbie is already Mattel’s most profitable franchise. But the movie isn’t directly geared toward children, movie theaters have struggled to get back on track after pandemic lockdowns, and toy demand through this year has been weak after ballooning during the pandemic. And some analysts don’t expect “Barbie” to do much for Mattel’s stock.

    Emily Bary and Jon Swartz contributed reporting to this story.

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