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Welcome to the latest installment of the Hotline’s Pac-12 men’s basketball power rankings, our weekly assessment of the reconstituted conference using results, analytics and a dash of common sense. The power rankings will be published each Monday through the end of the regular season. Here is last week’s edition, which examined how three Big Ten teams are undermining Gonzaga’s resume.
A brutal week for San Diego State was, consequently, the worst week of the season for the future Pac-12.
The Aztecs dropped two games they should have won and slid onto the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, leaving the conference that doesn’t exist (yet) staring at just two bids for March Madness.
Gonzaga is a lock. The only unknown for the Zags is whether they can claim a No. 2 seed.
And Utah State, despite a loss at Nevada, appears safe for the time being.
San Diego State was the only other member of the rebuilt nine-team Pac-12 with a reasonable chance to qualify for the at-large field.
But after a face plant at home against Grand Canyon and a road loss to Colorado State — both count as Quadrant II defeats — the Aztecs could miss the NCAAs for the first time since 2019.
Their NET ranking (44) is in the danger zone, largely because they have just one Quadrant I victory.
Perhaps more concerning is their position (54) in wins-above-bubble ranking, which measures how each team has performed against its schedule compared to how an average bubble team would fare. (The WAB was added to the selection process last season.)
All of which leaves the Pac-12 reliant upon upsets in the conference tournaments in order to send a third future member into the upcoming NCAAs:
— It needs Washington State or Oregon State to win the West Coast Conference and claim the league’s automatic bid. That seems unlikely: They are 0-6 against the WCC’s powers, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, and only one of the six games was close.
— Or it needs San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State or Boise State to win the Mountain West. Unreasonable? Hardly. The conference is wide open. But that means one of the schools not headed to the Pac-12 could be the last one standing.
— Or it needs Texas State to win the Sun Belt title, an outcome that appears far more plausible today than it did a few weeks ago. The Bobcats have won seven of their past eight and defeated several of the frontrunners during their late-season run.
That would be quite the twist: A school invited to join the Pac-12 entirely because of its football value providing a boost on the basketball side.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Sunday)
1. Gonzaga (27-2)
Results: won at San Francisco 80-59, beat Pacific 71-62
NET ranking: No. 5
Comment: The Zags could not have asked for better results elsewhere in their pursuit of the highest possible seed in the NCAA Tournament. Losses by UConn, Iowa State, Nebraska, Houston, Kansas (and others) all allowed Gonzaga to improve its position relative to the top group. (Previous: 2)
2. Utah State (23-4)
Results: beat Boise State 75-56, lost at Nevada 80-77
NET ranking: No. 24
Comment: Another loss in conference play could nudge the Aggies uncomfortably close to the bubble. In our view, their impressive NET ranking is a false indicator. Drill down on the metrics that matter, and their resume has some flaws. (Previous: 1)
3. Boise State (16-11)
Results: lost at Utah State 75-56, beat San Jose State 84-69
NET ranking: No. 62
Comment: The Broncos don’t have enough quality wins to counteract all their bad losses. The net impact on their NET ranking is decidedly negative. (Previous: 4)
4. San Diego State (18-8)
Results: lost to Grand Canyon 73-63 and at Colorado State 83-74
NET ranking: No. 44
Comment: The Aztecs are stout as ever defensively under coach Brian Dutcher but rank 108th nationally in offensive efficiency, according to the Pomeroy ratings, which measure points-per-possession adjusted for opponents. (Previous: 3)
5. Colorado State (17-10)
Results: won at UNLV 91-86, beat San Diego State 83-74
NET ranking: No. 88
Comment: The Rams have won five in a row and will finish February with Fresno State (home) and San Jose State (road), so they very well could carry a seven-game winning streak into March. And as we noted, the Mountain West tournament is wide open. (Previous: 8)
6. Oregon State (15-14)
Results: beat Pepperdine 83-73
NET ranking: No. 183
Comment: The Beavers will enter the West Coast Conference tournament as one of the most difficult teams to project. Unless they face Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s, any outcome is possible. They have looked surprisingly stout at times and predictably poor at others. (Previous: 5)
7. Washington State (12-17)
Results: beat Pacific 87-70, lost to Saint Mary’s 83-67
NET ranking: No. 130
Comment: Hard to believe but a top-four seed in the WCC tournament is a distinct possibility for the Cougars, who close the regular season at Pepperdine and LMU. (Previous: 6)
8. Texas State (18-12)
Results: won at South Alabama 90-82, lost at Louisiana 67-54
NET ranking: No. 240
Comment: We’ll know far more about the Bobcats at the end of the week. They host first-place Appalachian State on Thursday in the regular-season finale. (Previous: 9)
9. Fresno State (12-15)
Results: lost at Wyoming 92-82 and to New Mexico 80-78
NET ranking: No. 133
Comment: The Bulldogs are last here because of their season-long resume. But if the new Pac-12 existed today, we might pick them to win a game in the conference tournament. (Previous: 7)
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Jon Wilner
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