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Tag: mortgage loans

  • Robinhood enters the mortgage space with discounted rates and money toward closing costs

    The brand that brought stock trading to the masses is now providing mortgage loans at a deep discount. Following a beta test this summer, the new home loan offering is now rolling out to Robinhood Gold subscribers.

    Robinhood is not entering the mortgage market quietly. Teaming with Sage Home Loans, Robinhood users can access Sage mortgage rates “at least 0.75% below the national average,” according to a press release from Robinhood. On top of that, Sage borrowers can qualify for a $500 credit toward closing costs for purchase or refinance loans.

    Sage is a leading home loan lender, underwriting over $750 million in mortgages in 2024, according to government data.

    “This work reflects Sage’s commitment to leading the future of home lending,” Mike Malloy, CEO of Sage Home Loans, said in the release. “We’ve built a mortgage experience that’s simple, digital, and transparent — and collaborating with Robinhood shows what’s possible when technology meets accessibility.”

    Disclaimer: Sage Home Loans is owned by Red Ventures, which supplies affiliate links to Yahoo Finance.

    Robinhood (HOOD) was founded in 2013 and reportedly garnered a waitlist of 1 million potential users before launching a mobile app, offering commission-free stock and ETF transactions. Since then, it has expanded its menu to include cryptocurrency trading.

    In 2019, it launched fractional share trading, allowing users to buy slices of expensive stocks, such as Amazon and Google, for as little as $1.

    Now, the company is expanding into mortgage lending with its Sage Home Loans partnership.

    “Robinhood’s mission is to democratize finance for all, and this new benefit for annual Gold subscribers underscores that commitment,” said Sakhi Gandhi, director of partnerships at Robinhood, in a statement.

    Sage features a mobile-friendly website as well as an online mortgage application, and promises a “four-minute” mortgage preapproval letter, allowing you to begin house hunting and serious shopping sooner.

    According to Yahoo Finance analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data, Sage charged median loan costs of $4,642 and below-median interest rates near 6.245% to borrowers in 2024.

    The mortgage offering is available to Robinhood Gold members who pay a $5 monthly fee or a $50 annual subscription. Free 30-day trials are available; however, you must have an annual Gold subscription to qualify for the discounts offered through Sage.

    Laura Grace Tarpley edited this article.

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  • Home mortgage lending rebounds in the wake of a rough 2023 | Long Island Business News

    Home mortgage lending rebounds in the wake of a rough 2023 | Long Island Business News

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    After suffering through a steep drop in applications last year, home mortgage lending rebounded in the second quarter of this year, according to a new report. 

    There were 1.62 million mortgages secured by residential property in the United States in the second quarter, a 23.2 percent bump from the previous quarter, according to the 2024 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report from ATTOM, which tracks real estate data. 

    The increase in overall lending resulted from spikes in all categories of residential loans. Purchase-loan activity rose 32.7 percent in Q2, compared with the previous quarter. Refinance loans climbed 10.3 percent and home-equity credit lines increased by 26.5 percent in the second quarter as compared with the first quarter, according to the report. 

    However, residential lending activity in the second quarter of this year was still down 1.6 percent from the second quarter of 2023 and down 61.2 percent from the high reached hit in 2021. Still, this year’s second quarter activity marked the first gain in a year and brought the number of residential loans near the level from a year earlier. The report credits the rebound to a strong spring home-buying season and mortgage interest rates began to fall.

    Those in the mortgage industry here on Long Island are seeing similar boosts in business. 

    “We were probably up about 35 percent in applications in the second quarter,” said Tom Pescuma, a sales manager at Nationwide Mortgage Bankers in Melville. “The beginning of the current quarter is also looking up with an increase in refinancing volume, as well as home-purchasing loans. And we expect continued improvement through the rest of 2024.”  

    Nationally, lenders issued nearly $533 billion worth of residential mortgages in the second quarter, up 27.6 percent from the first quarter and a 1.1 percent increase from Q2 2023. The report found that purchase loans remained the most common form of mortgages nationally so far in 2024, comprising almost half of all mortgages, followed by refinance packages and home-equity lending. 

    “The mortgage industry got one of its biggest boosts in years during the second quarter, supported by a combination of the usual springtime home-buyer demand coupled with more attractive mortgage rates,” Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM, said in a company statement. “However, a cautionary note is warranted, as we shouldn’t read too much into one great quarter. A similar trend occurred last spring, with lending dropping off significantly later in the year. But with interest rates settling down and projections for more cuts from the Federal Reserve over the coming months, it wouldn’t be surprising if business increased even more for lenders over the rest of 2024, or at least didn’t drop significantly.” 

    Mortgage interest rates in New York have dropped in recent weeks. As of Friday, the average rate for a 30-year fixed loan is 6.2 percent, according to Bankrate.com, that’s significantly lower than last fall, when mortgage rates approached 8 percent.

    Still many prospective homebuyers are waiting to see the rates fall further before pulling the trigger on a purchase. 

    “Rates have been on a very slow decline, not enough to move the needle for most homebuyers or sellers,” said Vittorio Scafidi, vice president of lending at Westbury-based Jovia Financial Credit Union. “There’s chatter that the federal government may begin to cut interest rates even more, and while no one can predict what’s to happen, there are a lot of cautious people out there that are waiting it out on the sideline to see if the rates will actually drop.”  

    David Winzelberg

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  • US new home sales surged in September | CNN Business

    US new home sales surged in September | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    New home sales in the United States surged higher in September from the month before, even as mortgage rates remained over 7%, making financing a home costlier and pushing people out of the market.

    Sales of newly constructed homes jumped 12.3% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000, from a revised rate of 676,000 in August, according to a joint report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau. Sales were up 33.9% from a year ago.

    This represents the fastest pace of sales since February 2022 and easily exceeds analysts’ expectations of a sales pace of 680,000.

    Sales of existing homes have been trending down since February and are down 20% year to date in September from a year ago. There is an ongoing inventory and affordability crunch that has homeowners with mortgage rates of 3% or 4% reluctant to sell and buy another home at a much higher rate. In August, rates topped 7% and have lingered there as the Federal Reserve continues to address inflation.

    The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 7.63% last week, according to Freddie Mac, and there are indications it could continue to climb.

    “With one more Fed interest rate hike expected for the year, interest rates are not anticipated to drop any time soon,” said Kelly Mangold of RCLCO Real Estate Consulting.

    New construction has been an appealing alternative, attracting determined buyers frustrated by the historically low supply of existing homes. Still, affordability concerns remain.

    “The constraints in the housing market have created a significant amount of pent-up demand, as more and more households are living in homes they may have outgrown and are deciding to buy despite current market conditions,” said Mangold.

    According to the report, new home sales activity increased the most in the south, “a region that continues to outperform due to availability of land, population and job growth, and a relatively lower cost of living,” said Mangold.

    While new home sales are a much smaller share of the overall sales market than existing home sales, the inventory picture is rosier for new construction homes.

    The seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of September was 435,000. This represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales pace.

    By comparison, there were 1.13 million existing homes for sale at the end of September, or the equivalent of 3.4 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.

    Typically, the ratio of existing homes to new homes has been closer to 5 to 1, but lately it has been closer to 2 to 1, according to the National Association of Realtors.

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  • Why you should care about the global rout in government bonds | CNN Business

    Why you should care about the global rout in government bonds | CNN Business


    London
    CNN
     — 

    A slump in government bonds around the world has pushed up the cost of some nations’ debt to levels not seen in more than a decade. That’s bad news for governments in the red but also for the wallets of millions of mortgage borrowers, stock investors and businesses.

    The sell-off has been fueled by expectations among investors that the world’s major central banks will keep interest rates “higher for longer” to bring inflation down to their targets.

    It works like this: Governments looking to raise cash for public services and investments issue bonds. A bond provides a way to borrow money from investors for a set length of time, with the obligation to make regular interest payments.

    When official interest rates rise, so do investors’ expectations for returns on bonds, known as yields. This creates an incentive for investors to sell the bonds they currently hold and buy newly issued ones that offer higher interest payments. Selling bonds reduces prices. So, in short, when yields rise, bond prices fall.

    And yields have most definitely been rising: The yield on 30-year US government bonds, also known as Treasuries, hit 5% on Tuesday for the first time since 2007. In the United Kingdom, the yield on 30-year bonds also reached 5% this week, the highest level in more than two decades.

    Yields on German long-dated bonds are back to levels last seen on the eve of the eurozone debt crisis in 2011. Yields on Italy’s 10-year bonds hit 5% on Wednesday, the highest level since 2012, when that crisis was in full swing.

    Here’s why you should care.

    The yields on local government bonds are usually used by banks to price mortgages.

    The disastrous “mini” budget unveiled by former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss in September last year provided a stark illustration of that relationship. Her plan to borrow tens of billions of pounds to fund tax cuts spooked bond investors who feared that the country’s finances were on an unsustainable path.

    The resulting sell-off in UK government bonds — called “gilts” — caused yields to shoot up, taking mortgage costs higher with them.

    The average interest on a two-year fixed-rate mortgage soared to 6.47% at the start of November 2022, according to data from product comparison website Moneyfacts, the highest level since the depths of the global financial crisis in August 2008.

    Early morning sun illuminates streets of residential terraced houses, on September 17, 2023 in Bath, England. Soaring interest rates and falling prices has meant the end of the UK's 13-year housing market boom potentially leading to a wider house price crash.

    That meant hundreds of pounds more a month in mortgage payments. Before higher mortgage rates kicked in, some panicked homeowners rushed to refinance their fixed-rate loans earlier than planned, accepting a financial penalty for doing so.

    Mortgage rates had been falling back since the drama last fall but are now back to 6.47%, this month’s data from Moneyfacts shows.

    In the United States, mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year Treasuries, and that yield has risen 0.27 percentage points since late September.

    On Thursday, government-backed mortgage provider Freddie Mac announced that the average interest on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had hit 7.31% in the week ending September 28 — its highest level since 2000.

    “Higher mortgage rates create a standoff between potential buyers, who face some of the highest borrowing rates since 2000, and sellers, who may already enjoy a low fixed-rate mortgage and thus are less incentivized to sell,” Andrew Sheets, global head of corporate credit research at Morgan Stanley, told CNN.

    Surging government bond yields are probably coming for your stock portfolios too.

    Shares typically lose value when the yields on government debt rise, as investors can now get high returns — and a steady income — from less risky assets.

    Take the yield on 10-year Treasuries: at 4.78%, it is more than twice as high as the average yearly dividend paid out by the companies making up the S&P 500 index (SPX).

    “The higher the gilt yield goes, the less inclined, or obliged, investors will feel to take risk and pay up for other asset classes, such as shares,” Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, told CNN.

    Stock indexes have tumbled on both sides of the Atlantic in recent weeks. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (NDX) have shed 4% and 2.3% respectively since the Federal Reserve said late last month that it could hike rates once more this year and expected to make fewer rate cuts in 2024.

    The STOXX Europe 600 has sunk 4.5% and London’s FTSE 100 4.3% in that time.

    “Income is back,” analysts at BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, wrote in a note Monday, recommending investments in short-dates US Treasuries.

    Stocks have also taken a hit in recent weeks as rising oil prices, an ailing Chinese economy and the prospect of another government shutdown in the United Stated have unnerved investors.

    High official interest rates in America and Europe have also raised the cost of borrowing for businesses.

    “Higher interest rates make borrowing less attractive, and we’ve already seen a sharp slowing of bank lending that we think is consistent with this idea,” said Sheets at Morgan Stanley.

    “It’s important to note that slower credit growth, which generally means a cooler economy, is precisely what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve through its large recent rate hikes,” he added.

    Higher yields also mean that the government must pay more to service its debt — with less money available to spend elsewhere.

    The US government is currently sitting on a $33 trillion debt pile and is expected to incur more than $1 trillion in average annual interest costs over the next decade.

    In March, when gilt yields were much lower than now, the UK’s public spending watchdog said it expected the annual interest paid on the government’s pile of debt to peak at £115 billion ($140 billion) this year. That’s almost three times as much as the UK government plans to spend in 2023 on a key benefit for children and people with disabilities.

    Rising bond yields mean that “for any given level of borrowing, more must be spent on debt interest, leaving less scope to finance other priorities,” the Office for Budget Responsibility said in its March forecast.

    Higher gilt yields give politicians “less wiggle room to ease [the] cost-of-living pain through tax cuts or public sector pay offers,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote in a note Wednesday.

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  • The fate of this consumer watchdog is in the hands of the Supreme Court | CNN Business

    The fate of this consumer watchdog is in the hands of the Supreme Court | CNN Business


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    On Tuesday, the Supreme Court began hearing oral arguments in a case that will determine the fate of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

    The case was brought on by the Community Financial Services Association of America, a trade group representing payday lenders.

    The group scored a victory last year in a case it brought before the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, in New Orleans. The three-judge panel ruled the CFPB’s funding violates the Constitution’s Appropriations Clause and separation of powers. The Supreme Court will have the final say on that, however.

    The consumer watchdog agency was created after the 2008 financial crisis by way of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. The agency was the brainchild of Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren. She began advocating for it in 2007 when she was a Harvard Law School professor.

    The broad purpose of the CFPB is to protect consumers from financial abuses and to serve as the central agency for consumer financial protection authorities.

    Prior to the CFPB’s formation, “[c]onsumer financial protection had not been the primary focus of any federal agency, and no agency had effective tools to set the rules for and oversee the whole market,” the agency said on its site.

    The CFPB is funded by the Federal Reserve in an effort to keep the agency independent from political pressure. It also means that the agency doesn’t depend on Congressional appropriations funds.

    While there are critics of the agency’s current structure and funding, it has saved consumers money, made it easier for them to seek redress and to get better clarity and more tailored responses from companies when they have a problem with their accounts, loans or credit reports.

    “Today virtually all financial transactions for residential real estate in the United States depend upon compliance with the CFPB’s rules, and consumers rely on the rights and protections provided by those rules,” the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors said in an amicus brief to the Supreme Court.

    For instance, the CFPB recently ordered Bank of America to pay $100 million to customers and $90 million in penalties saying that the nation’s second-largest bank harmed consumers by double-dipping on fees, withholding credit card rewards and opening fake accounts.

    The CFPB also took action against Wells Fargo after the agency found the bank had been engaging in multiple abusive and unlawful consumer practices across several financial products between 2011 and 2022 — from auto loans to mortgage loans to bank accounts.

    The agency ordered the bank to pay a $1.7 billion civil penalty in addition to more than $2 billion to compensate consumers.

    The Supreme Court’s decision, which likely won’t be announced until the spring of 2024, has far-reaching implications.

    If the Supreme Court finds the CFPB’s funding structure unconstitutional, it could shutter the agency and invalidate all of its prior rulings.

    “Without those rules substantial uncertainty would arise as to how to undertake mortgage transactions in accordance with federal law,” the associations said in their joint brief. “The housing market could descend into chaos, to the detriment of all mortgage borrowers,” they added.

    It could also call into question the constitutionality of other government agencies like the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that also aren’t funded by Congressional appropriations.

    “We are confident in the constitutionality of the statute that created the CFPB within the Federal Reserve System and provides its funding,” Sam Gilford, a spokesperson for the CFPB, told CNN in a statement. “We will continue to carry out the vital work Congress has charged us to perform.”

    There’s also a way for the Supreme Court to change the CFPB’s funding structure in a way that wouldn’t invalidate prior rulings, said Joseph Lynyak III, a partner at the law firm of Dorsey & Whitney and a regulatory reform expert.

    “This result would be far more probable rather than voiding the last decade of the CFPB’s activity,” he added.

    From listening to the case on Tuesday, though, Lynyak believes the Supreme Court will rule that the CFPB’s funding structure is constitutional.

    “As we have argued from the outset, the CFPB’s unique funding mechanism lacks any contemporary or historical precedent,” said Noel Francisco, a lawyer arguing on behalf of those challenging the constitutionality of the CFPB’s funding structure.

    He added that it “improperly shields the agency from congressional oversight and accountability, and unconstitutionally strips Congress of its power of the purse under the Appropriations Clause of the Constitution.

    But both Republican and Democratic-appointed justices told Francisco on Tuesday they could not understand the crux of his argument.

    “I’m at a total loss,” said Justice Sonia Sotomayor. Echoing her remarks, Justice Amy Coney Barrett said, “we’re all struggling to figure out what’s the standard that you would use.”

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  • US mortgage rates climb to 7.31%, hitting their highest level in nearly 23 years | CNN Business

    US mortgage rates climb to 7.31%, hitting their highest level in nearly 23 years | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    US mortgage rates surged to their highest level in nearly 23 years this week as inflation pressures persisted.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.31% in the week ending September 28, up from 7.19% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 6.70%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has hit the highest level since the year 2000,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a statement. “However, unlike the turn of the millennium, house prices today are rising alongside mortgage rates, primarily due to low inventory. These headwinds are causing both buyers and sellers to hold out for better circumstances.”

    The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.

    Mortgage rates have spiked during the Federal Reserve’s historic inflation-curbing campaign — and while a good deal of progress has been made since June 2022, when inflation hit 9.1%, Fed officials say there is still a ways to go.

    The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is currently 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s target of 2%. Economists expect it to drop to 3.9% when the latest reading is released on Friday.

    This week’s mortgage rate surge followed last week’s small move higher, as investors settled in for “higher-for-longer” interest rates after last week’s Fed policy meeting, said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

    Hale said the takeaway from the meeting was that the upward adjustments from the Fed haven’t ended.

    “Revised economic projections show that another rate hike this year is definitely on the table, and the expected policy rate in 2024 and 2025 was also higher than previously forecast,” she said. “Market participants are still playing catchup.”

    While the Fed does not set the interest rates that borrowers pay on mortgages directly, its actions influence them.

    Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, which move based on a combination of anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed actually does and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

    The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose from 4.3% on September 20 to 4.6% as of September 27.

    Mortgage applications continued to drop last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, as mortgage rates went higher.

    “Rates over 7% and low for-sale inventory continue to create affordability challenges for prospective buyers,” said Bob Broeksmit, MBA president and CEO. “Until rates start to come back down, we anticipate housing market activity will remain slow.”

    Markets are experiencing an extraordinarily low number of homes for sale as homeowners stay put with ultra-low mortgage rates that are several percentage points lower than the current rate.

    There has been a small uptick in newly listed homes coming to market over the past few weeks, according to Realtor.com, which is seasonally atypical, said Hale.

    The first week in October tends to be an ideal week to buy a home, she said, since home prices tend to fall relative to summer highs, and fewer buyers contend for homes. Yet housing inventory remains higher than a typical week, Hale said.

    But, she added, mortgage rates will continue to be a wild card, which could make it impossible for some buyers to get in the market now.

    Even as demand is dropping, with so few homeowners selling, the market is pushing up prices as those few buyers who remain tussle over the handful of available houses, Hale said.

    This combination of higher prices and higher mortgage rates contrasts with easing rents over the past few months. This may cause would-be first-time buyers to wait for home prices and mortgage rates to stabilize and rent instead.

    “Buying a starter home is more expensive than renting in all but three major US markets [Realtor.com] studied,” said Hale, “which explains why buyer demand is likely to remain relatively low.”

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  • More remote workers are willing to move in order to find affordable housing | CNN Business

    More remote workers are willing to move in order to find affordable housing | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Housing is less affordable than it has been in about four decades. But buying or renting a home might be even less affordable now if it weren’t for the continuing impact of remote and hybrid workers that resulted from the pandemic, according to a recent study by Fannie Mae.

    The study, which was an analysis of Fannie Mae’s monthly National Housing Survey, with questions asked among more than 3,000 mortgage holders, owners, and renters between January and March this year, looked at how remote and hybrid work has changed over the past few years and its impact on housing.

    More people are willing to move to less expensive areas further away from offices in city centers than a few years ago, according to the report. Continuing remote and hybrid work, at levels remarkably unchanged from two years ago, is enabling people to move toward housing affordability, the study found.

    The report also revealed that “affordability” is the most important factor in finding a place to live, both for renters and homeowners.

    At the beginning of the year, 22% of remote and hybrid workers said they would be willing to relocate to a different region or increase their commute. Only 14% such workers were willing to do so in the third quarter of 2021, which is used as a comparison throughout the study and was when many workplaces attempted a “return to work” until the Omicron variant of Covid-19 pushed many employers’ plans back that winter.

    Workers who are able to break their ties to living in an area because of its proximity to work are able to spread out, reducing the competition for a historically low number of homes for sale that could push prices even higher.

    The research showed that among remote workers, all age and income groups have grown more willing to relocate or live farther away from their workplace since 2021. But younger workers — those between 18 and 34 — are significantly more willing than those older than them to live or commute a further distance from their work, with the share willing to do so jumping from 18% in 2021, to 30% in 2023.

    “We believe this greater willingness to live farther from the … workplace may be an indication that some workers are feeling more secure about their remote work situation … or their ability to find another job if their current employer were to change its policies,” wrote the researchers, in a summary.

    This is good news for remote workers during a time of crushingly low levels of home affordability.

    Remote and hybrid work may be here to stay. Or, it’s here long enough for people to buy or rent a new home because of it, the researchers found.

    Despite the demands by leaders of some prominent companies that workers need to head into the office or head out the door, the share of fully remote and hybrid workers has remained surprisingly constant in the post-pandemic era, according to the study.

    In the first part of the year, 35% of respondents worked fully remote or worked a hybrid mix of some time at a workplace and some time at home. That was only slightly down from 36% in 2021.

    While the share of workers going to a work site or office every day was unchanged at 49% in both 2021 and in 2023, the share of people working fully remote ticked up to 14% this year from 13% in 2021.

    Homeowners continue to be slightly more likely to work from home than renters. And those with more education and higher incomes are also more likely to have a work-from-home situation, which is consistent with 2021, the study found.

    Only 30% of lower-income people, earning 80% of the area median income, could work remotely or hybrid in 2021, and that dropped to 27% by this year. Meanwhile 42% of upper-income people, those making 120% of the area median income, were able to work from home in 2021 and that number did not change in 2023.

    Lower-income people — who are in most need of access to lower-cost housing, found further away from a city’s core — are also those least likely to work remotely, according to the survey.

    With housing affordability taking a hit over the past few years as rents rose, home prices stayed elevated and mortgage rates soared to a 22-year high, it is not surprising that “affordability” was the top factor for people when picking a new home, at 36%. This was a big jump from 2014, the last time the question was asked, when the top consideration was “neighborhood” at 49%.

    Homeowners and renters both showed growth in prioritizing “affordability,” but the increase was greatest among renters, shooting up from 21% in 2014 to 46% in 2023.

    “The change in preference for renters is truly remarkable, since not only did it more than double, but it represented a complete reversal of the relative importance of neighborhood cited by consumers as the top consideration in 2014,” wrote the researchers.

    In addition, despite the talk about moving for more space, “home size” as a factor for picking a next home was unchanged and still outweighed by “affordability.”

    “The striking shift toward affordability as the top consideration among overall survey respondents for their next move substantiates the need of households to find ways to manage around the significant rise in mortgage rates, home prices, and rents of the past few years,” the researchers wrote.

    And this is impacting where people look for a home and what they prioritize when they are searching.

    “Home affordability may also be a reason why we saw an increase in remote workers’ willingness to relocate or live farther away from their workplace, particularly given that, historically, a shorter commute to denser job markets was considered a premium amenity,” the researchers wrote.

    The suburbs are increasingly where people want to be, the report found, which is part of an ongoing trend since 2010. And that share has grown between 2021 and 2023.

    The researchers say the change to the housing market brought about by remote workers holds broader implications for the link between housing and the labor market.

    The growing share of remote-working renters and homeowners willing to live farther from their work location gives employers access to a wider labor market, which could be useful if a downturn in economic activity led to greater rates of job loss.

    “Having access to a larger labor market may also reduce the adverse effect on local home prices when a major employer or industry contracts,” the researchers wrote.

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  • China relaxes mortgage rules to help homebuyers in latest stimulus push | CNN Business

    China relaxes mortgage rules to help homebuyers in latest stimulus push | CNN Business


    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    China just made it easier for people to buy homes, in a move that could affect $3.5 trillion in mortgage loans as Beijing seeks to bail out a property market mired in a record slump and worsening cash crunch.

    Down payments will be set at a minimum of 20% for first-time buyers and a minimum of 30% for second-time buyers nationwide, according to a joint statement by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR) released late Thursday.

    That’s a big cut from the existing requirements of minimums of 30% and 40% for first-time and second-time buyers in cities that implement home-buying restrictions, such as Beijing and Shanghai.

    In addition, minimum mortgage rates for buyers of second homes should be no less than 20 basis points over the loan prime rate (LPR), the statement said. Currently, minimum mortgage rates for second-time buyers are no less than 60 basis points over the LPR.

    The LPR is the benchmark for most household and corporate loans in China and is set by the central bank each month.

    The regulators also indicated in a separate statement that rates on existing mortgages for first-home purchases can be renegotiated between banks and customers starting September 25. The regulators have encouraged banks to offer lower rates.

    “The drop in the interest rates of existing housing loans can save interest expenses for borrowers, which is conducive to expanding consumption and investment,” the regulators said.

    “For banks, it can effectively reduce the phenomenon of early loan repayment and mitigate the impact on banks’ interest income,” they added.

    The new policy measures could affect 40 million home buyers and impact 25 trillion yuan ($3.5 trillion) in mortgages, which is about two thirds of the country’s housing loans, state-owned Yicai reported on Thursday, citing people close to the regulators.

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  • Mortgage rates rise to just short of 7% | CNN Business

    Mortgage rates rise to just short of 7% | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    US mortgage rates remained elevated this week, rising for the third week in a row, but stayed just under the market’s 7% threshold.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.96% in the week ending August 10, up from 6.90% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 5.22%.

    “There is no doubt continued high rates will prolong affordability challenges longer than expected,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “However, upward pressure on rates is the product of a resilient economy with low unemployment and strong wage growth, which historically has kept purchase demand solid.”

    The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.

    The rate stayed elevated this week after the Federal Reserve highlighted its reliance on data on jobs and inflation in its July monetary policy meeting and in recent comments.

    Markets had been waiting for July’s inflation report, released Thursday morning, which showed consumer price hikes rose 3.2% annually, the first increase in 12 months. The data also showed that shelter costs contributed 90% of total inflation last month.

    “July’s Consumer Price Index holds significant importance for the Fed’s upcoming decisions,” said Jiayi Xu, an economist at Realtor.com.

    Since inflation rose, it could support the Fed’s concern that the battle is not over, Xu said. The Fed also will consider the forthcoming August employment and inflation data prior to the next policy meeting, in September.

    In addition, the most recent jobs report offered some mixed signals about the labor market, Xu said, including a smaller number of net new jobs added and a dipping unemployment rate.

    “While July’s jobs report itself is very unlikely to have a direct impact on the Fed’s upcoming decision, the decline to a 3.5% unemployment rate may imply that more significant slowing is needed to align with the Fed’s projected year-end rate of 4.1%,” she said.

    This story is developing and will be updated.

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  • What the banking crisis means for mortgage rates | CNN Business

    What the banking crisis means for mortgage rates | CNN Business


    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    Mortgage rates have taken would-be buyers on a ride this year — and it’s only March.

    Generally, home buyers can anticipate mortgage rates to move down through the rest of this year as the banking crisis drags on, which could cool down inflation.

    But there are bound to be some bumps along the way. Here’s why rates have been bouncing around and where they could end up.

    After steadily rising last year as a result of the Federal Reserve’s historic campaign to rein in inflation, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage topped out at 7.08% in November, according to Freddie Mac. Then, with economic data suggesting inflation was retreating, the average rate drifted down through January.

    But a raft of robust economic reports in February brought concerns that inflation was not cooling as quickly or as much as many had hoped. As a result, after falling to 6.09%, average mortgage rates climbed back up, rising half a percentage point over the month.

    Then in March banks began collapsing. That sent rates falling again.

    Neither the actions of the Federal Reserve nor the bank failures directly impact mortgage rates. But rates are indirectly impacted by actions that the Fed takes or is expected to take, as well as the health of the broader financial system and any uncertainty that may be percolating.

    On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise interest rates by a quarter point as it attempts to fight stubbornly high inflation while taking into account recent risks to financial stability.

    While the bank failures made the Fed’s work more complicated, analysts have said that, if contained, the banking meltdown may have actually done some work for the Fed, by bringing down prices without raising interest rates. To that point, the Fed suggested on Wednesday that it may be at the end of its rate hike cycle.

    Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which move based on a combination of anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed actually does and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

    Following the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday, bond yields — and the mortgage rates that usually follow them — fell.

    But the relationship between mortgage rates and Treasurys has weakened slightly in recent weeks, said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow.

    “The secondary mortgage market may react to speculation that more financial entities may need to sell their long-term investments, like mortgage backed securities, to get more liquidity today,” he said.

    Even as Treasurys decline, he said, tighter credit conditions as a result of bank failures will likely limit any dramatic plunging of mortgage rates.

    “This could restrict mortgage lenders’ access to funding sources, resulting in higher rates than Treasuries would otherwise indicate,” Divounguy said. “For borrowers, lending standards were already quite strict, and tighter conditions may make it more difficult for some home shoppers to secure funding. In turn, for home sellers, the time it takes to sell could increase as buyers hesitate.”

    Inflation is still quite high, but it is slowing and analysts are anticipating a much slower economy over the next few quarters — which should further bring down inflation. This is good for mortgage borrowers, who can expect to see rates retreating through this year, said Mike Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association senior vice president and chief economist.

    “Homebuyers in 2023 have shown themselves to be quite sensitive to any changes in mortgage rates,” Fratantoni said.

    The MBA forecasts that mortgage rates are likely to trend down over the course of this year, with the 30-year fixed rate falling to around 5.3% by the end of the year.

    “The housing market was the first sector to slow as the result of tighter monetary policy and should be the first to benefit as policymakers slow — and ultimately stop — hiking rates,” said Fratantoni.

    In second half of the year, the inflation picture is expected to improve, leading to mortgage rates that are more stable.

    “Expectations for slower economic growth or even a recession should bring inflation down and help mortgage rates decline,” said Divounguy.

    That’s good news for home buyers since it improves affordability, bringing down the cost to finance a home. It also benefits sellers, since it reduces the intensity of an interest-rate lock-in.

    Lower rates could also convince more homeowners to list their home for sale. With the inventory of homes for sale near historic lows, this would add badly needed inventory to an extremely limited pool.

    “Mortgage rates are steering both supply and demand in today’s costly environment,” said Divounguy. “Home sales picked up in January when rates were relatively low, then slacked off as they ramped back up.”

    But with cooling inflation comes a higher risk of job losses, which is typically bad for the housing market.

    “Of course, much uncertainty surrounding the state of inflation and this still-evolving banking turmoil remains,” said Divounguy.

    In his remarks on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said estimates of how much the recent banking developments could slow the economy amounted to “guesswork, almost, at this point.”

    But regardless of the tack the economy and banking concerns take, their impact will quickly be seen in mortgage rates.

    “Evidence — in either direction — of spillovers into the broader economy or accelerating inflation would likely cause another policy shift, which would materialize in mortgage rates,” said Divounguy.

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  • CFPB: What it does and why its future is in question | CNN Business

    CFPB: What it does and why its future is in question | CNN Business


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The US Supreme Court decided this week to hear a case that will consider the constitutionality of funding for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and, in doing so, test the constraints of US regulators’ power. The case would be heard in the fall, with a decision likely by summer 2024.

    But what is the CFPB? How does its work affect your wallet? And why is its future potentially at risk?

    The agency was created after the 2008 financial meltdown, as part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. That law was passed in the wake of the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession that followed.

    The broad purpose of the CFPB is to protect consumers from financial abuses and to serve as the central agency for consumer financial protection authorities.

    Prior to its creation, as the agency notes on its site, “[c]onsumer financial protection had not been the primary focus of any federal agency, and no agency had effective tools to set the rules for and oversee the whole market.”

    The CFPB has regulatory authority over providers of many types of financial products and services, including credit cards, banking accounts, loan servicing, credit reporting and consumer debt collection.

    It is charged with implementing and enforcing consumer protection laws, making rules and issuing guidance for consumer financial institutions. And it is the place consumers can go to lodge complaints about financial products and services.

    Importantly, Dodd-Frank also gave the agency new authority to determine whether any given consumer financial product or service is unfair, deceptive or abusive and therefore unlawful.

    While there are critics of the agency’s current structure and funding, it has saved consumers money, made it easier for them to seek redress and to get better clarity and more tailored responses from companies when they have a problem with their accounts, loans or credit reports.

    “It has completely changed the consumer financial marketplace. Overall it has had a tremendous impact on making it more fair and transparent,” said Lauren Saunders, associate director of the National Consumer Law Center.

    For instance, the CFPB has taken action against bank overdraft policies. “Arguably, the focus on overdraft practices has led some banks to eliminate or reduce their overdraft fees,” said Christine Hines, legislative director of the National Association of Consumer Advocates.

    And it has gone after institutions for saddling consumers with pointless products, excessive fees and punitive terms.

    Both Hines and Saunders made a special note of CFPB’s actions against Wells Fargo, after the agency found the bank had been engaging in multiple abusive and unlawful consumer practices across several financial products between 2011 and 2022 — from auto loans to mortgage loans to bank accounts.

    Last month, the agency required the bank to pay more than $2 billion to customers who were harmed by such practices, plus a $1.7 billion fine that will go into a relief fund for victims.

    “More than 16 million accounts at Wells Fargo were subject to their illegal practices, including misapplied payments, wrongful foreclosures, and incorrect fees and interest charges,” the agency said in a blog post.

    In the area of mortgages, “CFPB has written rules to implement new protections so that mortgage lenders don’t make loans with tricks and traps that lead people to lose their homes,” Saunders said.

    It also has created other safeguards, including rules on how service providers should communicate with borrowers who want to find alternatives to foreclosure, Hines noted.

    Currently, the agency is in the midst of an effort to curb excessive or “junk” fees on a range of consumer financial products, such as credit card late fees.

    Critics of the CFPB have been trying for years to limit its power and independence, attacking the way the agency is structured and funded. Like federal banking regulators, its funding is not determined by lawmakers in Congress as part of the annual appropriations process. Rather, it gets its money from the Federal Reserve System’s earnings.

    “This nontraditional funding source limits congressional oversight of the agency and is the subject of legal challenges,” according to the Congressional Research Service.

    The latest challenge — arising from a federal appeals court ruling that CFPB’s funding violates the Constitution’s Appropriations Clause and separation of powers — is what the Supreme Court will take up in its October term.

    While it’s impossible to predict how the justices will rule, should they decide to uphold the appeals court ruling, that will put in doubt how the agency will be funded going forward, and whether it can continue to function effectively.

    It’s also unclear whether the agency’s actions and rule-making over the past 11 years would be invalidated, nor what impact it would have on banks and other financial institutions that have set up systems to be in compliance with CFPB rules and safe harbors.

    “The agency would be unable to do anything if the funding is invalidated. And prior rules could be challenged as the agency did not have a legal funding source that it could use to write those rules,” Cowen Washington Research Group analyst Jaret Seiberg said in a note to clients.

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  • UK house prices post sharpest fall since 2012 as high mortgage rates hurt | CNN Business

    UK house prices post sharpest fall since 2012 as high mortgage rates hurt | CNN Business


    London
    CNN
     — 

    UK house prices last month saw their biggest annual decline since November 2012, in the latest indication of the lasting pain that former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s ill-fated “mini” budget inflicted on Britain’s property market.

    The average price of a house fell 1.1% to £257,406 ($310,000) in February compared with a year earlier, taking UK house price growth into negative territory for the first time since June 2020, lender Nationwide said Wednesday.

    House prices have now declined for six months in a row and are 3.7% below their August 2022 peak, according to Nationwide’s index based on purchases involving a mortgage.

    “The recent run of weak house price data began with the financial market turbulence in response to the mini budget at the end of September last year,” Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner said in a statement.

    “While financial market conditions normalized some time ago, housing market activity has remained subdued,” reflecting “the lingering impact on confidence, as well as the cumulative impact of the financial pressures that have been weighing on households for some time,” he added.

    The “mini” budget unveiled in September by Truss and then-finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng collapsed UK bond prices, sent borrowing costs soaring and sparked chaos in the mortgage market, as lenders withdrew hundreds of products, and deals fell through.

    “The economy has largely moved on from the mini budget, but the hangover for the UK housing market is more prolonged. We’re still seeing the effects of higher mortgage rates in the last three months of last year,” said Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at broker Knight Frank.

    Surging food and energy costs alongside feeble pay growth have also taken a bite out of household budgets, weighing on consumer confidence and housing market activity.

    “Inflation has continued to outpace wage growth, and mortgage rates remain significantly higher than the lows recorded in 2021,” said Gardner at Nationwide. “Even though consumer sentiment has improved in recent months, it is still languishing at levels prevailing during the depths of the financial crisis.”

    According to Bill, activity since Christmas has been “solid” but prices still have further to fall. He expects a decline of 5% this year.

    “House prices are 20% higher than they were before the pandemic and we expect around half of this to unwind over the next two years as buyers revise down their budgets,” Bill said.

    Mortgage rates have started to fall but recent stronger-than-expected UK economic data could lead the Bank of England to keep interest rates higher for longer, causing the downward drift in mortgage rates to “stall,” he told CNN. “That’s something we’re keeping an eye on.”

    — This is a developing story and will be updated.

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  • Pending home sales blew past expectations last month as buyers pounced on lower rates | CNN Business

    Pending home sales blew past expectations last month as buyers pounced on lower rates | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Pending home sales crushed expectations in January, when mortgage rates dropped from recent highs of more than 7% and home buyers jumped at the opportunity.

    According to data released Monday from the National Association of Realtors, it was the largest monthly sales increase since June 2020.

    The pending sales index, based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, rose by 8.1% from December to January, beating economists’ predictions for a rise of 1%. January’s jump followed a downwardly revised 1.1% rise in December.

    “Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR.

    But since then, mortgage rates have risen again, climbing almost half a percentage point since the beginning of February, according to Freddie Mac.

    “Mortgage rates took a breath in December and January before resuming their climb in February, reaching 6.5%, the highest level of the new year,” said Hannah Jones, an economic data analyst at Realtor.com.

    At the current mortgage rate, the monthly payment on a median-priced home is about 45% higher — or $630 more — than it was at the same time last year, she said. “Many buyers are still holding off, waiting to see if prices or rates give a bit before getting into the market.”

    Last year’s persistent increase in both mortgage rates and home prices pushed many would-be home purchasers out of the market, said Jones. This resulted in a slowing of new homes in the building pipeline and fewer sellers listing their homes, which limited options for buyers still in the market.

    “New listings were at the lowest level in the last six years in January as sellers stayed on the sidelines, waiting to see buyers return, before placing their homes for sale,” said Jones. “However, the first month of the year brought glimmers of hope as year-over-year declines in both existing and new home sales slowed, and buyer sentiment improved slightly.”

    While home sales were down by 24.1% from the still-hot market of a year ago, activity appears to be bottoming out in the first quarter of this year, before incremental improvements will occur, Yun said.

    “An annual gain in home sales will not occur until 2024,” said Yun. “Meanwhile, home prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”

    All regions saw a month-to-month increase in pending home sales, with the Northeast up 6%, the Midwest up 7.9%, the South up 8.3% and the West up 10.1%.

    “An extra bump occurred in the West region because of lower home prices, while gains in the South were due to stronger job growth in that region,” Yun said.

    Home prices are dropping fastest in areas where prices ran up the most in the frenzied market of the past few years.

    But overall, the number of home sales are expected to drop this year, according to NAR’s forecast.

    NAR anticipates the economy will continue to add jobs throughout this year and next, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate steadily dropping to an average of 6.1% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2024.

    Even with an improving interest rate environment and job gains, Yun still expects annual existing-home sales to drop about 11% this year from last year, before jumping up about 18% in 2024. NAR projects new-home sales will fall about 4% this year compared with last year before surging nearly 20% in 2024.

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  • Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling | CNN Business

    Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Home prices are going up across the country — in aggregate. Looking at individual markets, however, some are showing prices have fallen from a year ago.

    Single-family median home prices increased 4% in the fourth quarter from a year ago to $378,700. Prices were strongest in the Northeast in the last quarter, up 5.3%; followed by the South, up 4.9%; the Midwest, up 4% and the West, up 2.6%, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    But drill down to the market level and it’s clear that prices in some areas are declining from the prior year. The positive regional numbers mask that about 11% of individual housing markets tracked by NAR — 20 of 186 cities — experienced home price declines in the fourth quarter of last year.

    “A few markets may see double-digit price drops, especially some of the more expensive parts of the country, which have also seen weaker employment and higher instances of residents moving to other areas,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

    Nearly all of the most expensive places to buy are in the West and half of the 10 most expensive cities are in California. Several of those places are seeing prices fall the most.

    San Jose, California, was the most expensive place to purchase a home in the United States in the fourth quarter. But that median price of $1,577,500 is actually down 5.8% from a year ago — and prices there have already dropped 17% from the peak $1,900,000 median price in the second quarter of last year, according to NAR.

    San Francisco had the biggest price drop in the country, year over year, last quarter, with the median price of $1,230,000 — down 6.1% from a year ago. Prices for San Francisco homes are already down 21% in the fourth quarter from the peak median price of $1,550,000 in the second quarter.

    Among the most expensive cities that saw prices falling are Anaheim, California, with the median price of $1,132,000, down 1.6% from a year ago; Los Angeles, with the median price of $829,100, down 1.3%; and Boulder, Colorado, with the median price of $759,500, down 2.0%.

    Other places with falling prices saw the big price increases during the frenzied home buying market of the past few years. They also tend to be appealing lifestyle destinations where people moved to as remote work provided more flexibility. These include Boise, Idaho, where prices fell 3.4% from a year ago and Austin, Texas, where prices are down 1.3%.

    The good news for buyers looking for price relief is that the 4% median price hike in the fourth quarter is less than the 8.6% increase in the third quarter. In addition, the price increases are smaller, with far fewer markets experiencing double-digit price gains in the fourth quarter.

    “A slowdown in home prices is underway and welcomed, particularly as the typical home price has risen 42% in the past three years,” said Yun, noting these cost increases have far surpassed wage increases and consumer price inflation since 2019.

    Throughout much of the pandemic, home prices across the country moved in a single direction: up. Some hotspots like Austin and Boise saw prices skyrocket. Other areas — particularly in the Midwest — saw prices go up more moderately. Yet, because mortgage rates were near historic lows, buyers came out in droves.

    That story changed last year, when mortgage rates spiked as a result of the Federal Reserve’s historic campaign to rein in inflation. Homebuying fell off a cliff. By the end of 2022, sales of existing homes were down nearly 18% from 2021 as would-be homebuyers left the market, according to NAR.

    Typically, a drop in demand to buy would mean excess supply and ultimately lead to prices coming down. But that’s not happening, broadly speaking, in the housing market.

    Instead, prices for single-family homes climbed in nearly 90% of metro areas tracked by NAR in the fourth quarter: 166 markets out of 186 saw prices still going up. The national median price of a single-family home increased 4% last quarter from one year ago to $378,700.

    How can this be?

    One main driver of this phenomenon is that there is a shortage of inventory due to chronic underbuilding of affordable homes in the United States, along with homeowners who don’t want to part with the ultra-low mortgage rate they secured over the past few years.

    “Even with a projected reduction in home sales this year, prices are expected to remain stable in the vast majority of the markets due to extremely limited supply,” said Yun.

    There are still places where home prices continue to climb at double-digit rates. The top 10 cities with the largest year-over-year price increases all recorded gains of at least 14.5%, with seven of those markets in Florida and the Carolinas, according to NAR.

    Farmington, New Mexico, saw the biggest price increase in the fourth quarter, up 20.3% from a year ago. It was followed by Sarasota, Florida, up 19.5%; Naples, Florida, up 17.2%; Greensboro, North Carolina, up 17.0%; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, up 16.2%; Oshkosh, Wisconsin, up 16.0%; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, up 15.7%; El Paso, Texas, up 15.2%; Punta Gorda, Florida, up 15.2%; and Daytona Beach, Florida, up 14.5%.

    In the last quarter of 2022 a family needed a qualifying income of at least $100,000 to afford a 10% down payment mortgage in 71 markets, up from 59 in the prior quarter, according to NAR.

    Yet there were 16 markets where a family needed a qualifying income of less than $50,000 to afford a home, although that was down from 17 the previous quarter. Some of those included Peoria, Illinois, where a family can qualify for a loan with an income of $33,660; Waterloo, Iowa, with an income of $40,639; and Montgomery, Alabama, with an income of $48,172.

    Nationally, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,969 in the fourth quarter according to NAR. That’s a 7% increase from the third quarter of last year, when the monthly payment was $1,838, but a major surge of 58% — or a $720 monthly increase — from one year ago.

    This made the affordability picture even harder for many home buyers. Families typically spent 26.2% of their income on mortgage payments, which was up from 25% in the prior quarter and 17.5% one year ago.

    First-time buyers were evidently pushed to a breaking point on affordability. They typically spent 39.5% of their family income on mortgage payments, up from 37.8% in the previous quarter. A mortgage is considered unaffordable if the monthly payment, including principal and interest, amounts to more than 25% of the family’s income. Generally, a common financial rule of thumb is to not spend more than 30% of your income on housing costs.

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  • China’s property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds | CNN Business

    China’s property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds | CNN Business


    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    The property market in China is so depressed that some banks are resorting to drastic measures, including allowing people to pay off mortgages until they are 95 years old.

    Some banks in the cities of Nanning, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Beijing have extended the upper age limit on mortgages to between 80 and 95, according to a number of state media reports. That means people aged 70 can now take out loans with maturities of between 10 and 25 years.

    China’s property market is in the midst of a historic downturn. New home prices had fallen for 16 straight months through December. Sales by the country’s top 100 developers last year were only 60% of 2021 levels.

    Analysts say the new age limits, which aren’t yet official national policy, aim to breathe life into the country’s moribund property market while taking into consideration China’s rapidly aging population, said Yan Yuejin, a property analyst at E-House China Holdings, a real estate services firm, in a recent research note.

    “Basically, it’s a policy tool to stimulate housing demand, as it can alleviate the debt payment burden and encourage home buying,” he added.

    The new mortgage terms are like a “relay loan.” If the elderly borrower isn’t able to repay, his or her children must carry on with the mortgage, he said.

    Last month, China reported that its population shrank in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years, a new milestone in the country’s deepening demographic crisis with significant implications for its slowing economy. The number of people aged 60 or above increased to 280 million by the end of last year, or 19.8% of the population.

    The mortgage borrower’s age plus mortgage length should not usually exceed 70 years, according to previous rules published by the banking regulator. China’s average life expectancy is around 78.

    The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission hasn’t commented publicly about the new terms.

    But bank branches across the country are setting their own terms on these multi-generational loans.

    According to the Beijing News, a branch of Bank of Communications in the city said borrowers as old as 70 can take out home loans lasting 25 years, which means the upper age limit on its mortgages has been lifted to 95.

    But there are also prerequisites: The mortgage needs to be guaranteed by the borrower’s children, and their combined monthly income must be at least twice the monthly mortgage payment.

    Separately, a branch of Citic Bank has extended the upper age limit on its mortgages to 80, the paper said, citing a bank client manager.

    Calls to the Beijing branches of Citic Bank and Bank of Communications were not answered.

    Hong Hao, chief economist at Grow Investment Group, said this was a “drastic” measure and “could be a marketing gimmick to attract the elderly to pay [mortgages] for the younger generation.”

    Yan from E-House said the main beneficiary of the move might not be the elderly, but middle-aged borrowers between 40 and 59. Under the extended payment cutoff age, those people could get a mortgage for 30 years — the maximum length allowed in China.

    Compared with previous terms, it means those borrowers could pay less each month.

    “It is obviously a way to alleviate the debt payment burden,” said Hong.

    According to calculations by E-House, if a bank extends the upper age limit to 80, borrowers aged from 40 to 59 can get 10 additional years on their mortgages. Assuming their mortgage is one million yuan ($145,416), then their monthly payment can be reduced by 1,281 yuan ($186), or 21%.

    Chinese households have grown reluctant to purchase new homes in the past year, as the now-defunct Covid curbs, falling home prices and rising unemployment have discouraged would-be buyers. Last summer, protests that erupted in dozens of cities were staged by people refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished homes, dealing a further blow to market sentiment.

    Authorities have rolled out a flurry of stimulus measures to try to revive the housing market, including several cuts to lending rates and measures to ease the liquidity crisis for developers — so that they can resume stalled construction and deliver pre-sold homes to buyers as quickly as possible.

    Other than Beijing, some banks in Nanning, the provincial capital of Guangxi province, have raised the upper age limit on mortgages to 80, according to the city’s official newspaper Nanguo Zaobao.

    In the eastern cities of Ningbo and Hangzhou, several local lenders are advertising age limits of 75 or 80, a relaxation from previous rules, according to reports by government-owned Ningbo Daily and Hangzhou Daily.

    “If the applicant is too old to meet the loan requirement, they can have their children as the guarantor,” a lender was quoted as saying.

    But Wang Yuchen, a real estate lawyer at Beijing Jinsu Law Firm, warned such mortgages were “risky.”

    It’s understandable that many cities are trying to revive their housing markets by reducing the monthly debt payment and enlisting more elderly people into the pool of home buyers, he said in a written commentary on his WeChat account.

    “But the elderly have relatively poor repayment ability. On the one hand, it could affect their quality of life in old age, as they continue carrying the mortgage debt mountain and work for the bank until the last moment of their lives,” he said. “On the other hand, the associated risks may be transferred to their children, increasing their financial pressure.”

    “For some home buyers, choosing this way to purchase a house is probably because of their lack of funds. But it’s risky to do so at this time,” he said, adding that the property market is in a structural downturn and the government is still working to curb speculation.

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  • Inflation pushes up mortgage rates for second week in a row | CNN Business

    Inflation pushes up mortgage rates for second week in a row | CNN Business


    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Mortgage rates climbed higher for the second consecutive week, following four weeks of declines. Inflation is running hotter, making rates more volatile, with the expectation that they will move in the 6% to 7% range over the next few weeks.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% in the week ending February 16, up from 6.12% the week before, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 3.92%.

    After climbing for most of 2022, mortgage rates had been trending downward since November, as various economic indicators indicated inflation may have peaked. But a stronger-than-expected jobs report and a Consumer Price Index report that showed inflation is only moderately easing suggest the Federal Reserve could continue hiking its benchmark lending rate in its battle against inflation.

    Inflation is keeping mortgage rates volatile, said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

    “The economy is showing signs of resilience, mainly due to consumer spending, and rates are increasing,” said Khater. “Overall housing costs are also increasing and therefore impacting inflation, which continues to persist.”

    The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit. Many buyers who put down less money upfront or have less than ideal credit will pay more than the average rate.

    Investors are digesting the latest economic data, said George Ratiu, Realtor.com manager of economic research.

    The Fed does not set the interest rates that borrowers pay on mortgages directly, but its actions influence them. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which move based on a combination of anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed actually does and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow.

    “While the Fed signaled that it will continue to raise rates this year, the moves are expected to come in 25 basis point increments, a less aggressive tightening than what we saw in 2022,” said Ratiu. “The central bank is acknowledging that it sees its monetary actions having a tangible effect on inflation. The CPI data out this week seems to confirm the bank’s views.”

    At the same time, he said, many companies expect the economy will enter a recession as a result of the Fed’s rate hikes, even in the face of data pointing to continued resilience.

    “This expectation is becoming more visible in the growing number of companies resorting to layoffs as a hedge against a potential economic slowdown,” he said. “People who are laid off pull back on spending, and even those who are still employed may begin to do the same due to worries about losing their job, thus potentially sending consumer spending into a downward spiral.”

    For home buyers, the cost of financing a home is expected to go up.

    Already, rates have been climbing in recent weeks, leading to a drop in mortgage applications. Last week, applications fell 7.7% from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    Buyers are proving to be interest rate sensitive, according to MBA.

    “Purchase applications dropped to their lowest level since the beginning of this year and were more than 40% lower than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “Potential buyers remain quite sensitive to the current level of mortgage rates, which are more than two percentage points above last year’s levels and have significantly reduced buyers’ purchasing power.”

    Mortgage rates are expected to move in the 6% to 7% range over the next few weeks, said Ratiu.

    For housing markets, he said, “the rebound in rates translates into higher mortgage payments, adding pressure on homebuyers.”

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  • One news publication had an AI tool write articles. It didn’t go well | CNN Business

    One news publication had an AI tool write articles. It didn’t go well | CNN Business


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    News outlet CNET said Wednesday it has issued corrections on a number of articles, including some that it described as “substantial,” after using an artificial intelligence-powered tool to help write dozens of stories.

    The outlet has since hit pause on using the AI tool to generate stories, CNET’s editor-in-chief Connie Guglielmo said in an editorial on Wednesday.

    The disclosure comes after CNET was previously called out publicly for quietly using AI to write articles and later for errors. While using AI to automate news stories is not new – the Associated Press began doing so nearly a decade ago – the issue has gained new attention amid the rise of ChatGPT, a viral new AI chatbot tool that can quickly generate essays, stories and song lyrics in response to user prompts.

    Guglielmo said CNET used an “internally designed AI engine,” not ChatGPT, to help write 77 published stories since November. She said this amounted to about 1% of the total content published on CNET during the same period, and was done as part of a “test” project for the CNET Money team “to help editors create a set of basic explainers around financial services topics.”

    Some headlines from stories written using the AI tool include, “Does a Home Equity Loan Affect Private Mortgage Insurance?” and “How to Close A Bank Account.”

    “Editors generated the outlines for the stories first, then expanded, added to and edited the AI drafts before publishing,” Guglielmo wrote. “After one of the AI-assisted stories was cited, rightly, for factual errors, the CNET Money editorial team did a full audit.”

    The result of the audit, she said, was that CNET identified additional stories that required correction, “with a small number requiring substantial correction.” CNET also identified several other stories with “minor issues such as incomplete company names, transposed numbers, or language that our senior editors viewed as vague.”

    One correction, which was added to the end of an article titled “What Is Compound Interest?” states that the story initially gave some wildly inaccurate personal finance advice. “An earlier version of this article suggested a saver would earn $10,300 after a year by depositing $10,000 into a savings account that earns 3% interest compounding annually. The article has been corrected to clarify that the saver would earn $300 on top of their $10,000 principal amount,” the correction states.

    Another correction suggests the AI tool plagiarized. “We’ve replaced phrases that were not entirely original,” according to the correction added to an article on how to close a bank account.

    Guglielmo did not state how many of the 77 published stories required corrections, nor did she break down how many required “substantial” fixes versus more “minor issues.” Guglielmo said the stories that have been corrected include an editors’ note explaining what was changed.

    CNET did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for comment.

    Despite the issues, Guglielmo left the door open to resuming use of the AI tool. “We’ve paused and will restart using the AI tool when we feel confident the tool and our editorial processes will prevent both human and AI errors,” she said.

    Guglielmo also said that CNET has more clearly disclosed to readers which stories were compiled using the AI engine. The outlet took some heat from critics on social media for not making overtly clear to its audience that “By CNET Money Staff” meant it was written using AI tools. The new byline is just: “By CNET Money.”

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  • ‘We’re trapped’: Britons in homes with unsafe cladding see no way out as living costs soar | CNN

    ‘We’re trapped’: Britons in homes with unsafe cladding see no way out as living costs soar | CNN


    London
    CNN
     — 

    In May 2017, Sophie Bichener did what many in their twenties are unable to do: buy a home. She paid around £230,000 (around $295,000 at the time) for her two-bedroom apartment in a high-rise building in a town north of London, where a train could get her to work in the capital in less than half an hour. She had her foot on the first rung of Britain’s housing ladder, an increasingly difficult feat, and it felt like the only way was up.

    A month later, Bichener woke up to news that would change her life. A fire had broken out at a similar block to hers: the 24-story Grenfell Tower in west London, which was encased in flammable cladding. The material meant to keep out the wind and rain went up like a matchstick. The fire killed 72 people and left an entire community homeless and heartbroken. The ordeal sent Bichener into a panic. Was her building also at risk, she wondered?

    The burned remains of Grenfell stood uncovered for months, looming over one of London’s richest boroughs. It became a monument that to many symbolized the disastrous effects of austerity – the decade-long policy of cost-cutting embarked on by the Conservatives in response to the financial crisis of 2008. The tragedy was made all the more stark by its surroundings: the public housing block is just a five-minute walk from Kensington properties worth tens of millions of pounds. Look one way: scarcely imaginable wealth. The other: a hulking symbol of a broken and divided Britain.

    In the wake of the fire, there was a wave of promises from politicians that things would change – that building safety would be improved, social housing reformed, and that responsibility would be taken for the government agenda of public spending cuts, deregulation and privatization that acted as kindling for the tragedy that unfolded.

    But in the five years since, Britons living in tower blocks with unsafe cladding have found themselves stuck in a perpetual state of limbo. CNN spoke with 10 people, who all say they are paralyzed by fear that their buildings could catch fire at any moment, and crippled by costs thrust upon them to fix safety defects that were not their fault – despite the government promising they would not have to “pay a penny.”

    Now, their problems are compounded by a fresh disaster: a spiraling cost-of-living crisis. As energy prices and inflation soar, residents like Bichener are facing an impossible situation, burdened not only by sky-high bills but also the eye-watering expense of remediating properties that now feel more like prisons than homes.

    Residents told CNN they were living in a perpetual state of anxiety, inundated by text alerts informing them of mounting bills and waiting on tenterhooks for the next buzz of their phone. Some said their building insurance had quadrupled since they moved in, while others were burdened by ballooning service charges – hundreds of pounds a month for safety fixes that hadn’t been started.

    Many said they had left their mortgages on variable rates in the hopes they could eventually sell their apartments, but after the Bank of England hiked interest rates this fall their repayments had become untenable, with monthly payments almost doubling in some cases. Paired with the rising costs of living – more expensive energy, fuel and food – the residents CNN spoke with said they are finding themselves several thousand pounds a year poorer.

    When Bichener bought her flat in Vista Tower in Stevenage, a 16-story office block built in 1965 and converted into residential housing in 2016, there was “no mention” of fire hazards, she said. “When Grenfell happened we spoke to our local council just to double-check all the buildings in the town. We asked the management agent and freeholder [the owner of the apartment building and land] if they have any concerns. At that point, everyone was saying no, all these buildings are good,” Bichener told CNN.

    Vista Tower, right, in Stevenage. Britons living in unsafe buildings remain haunted by the memory of Grenfell.

    But there were soon signs of trouble. The developer that built the block put itself into liquidation – the first “red flag,” Bichener said. Emails to the freeholder went unanswered – the second. Then confirmation: In 2019, two years after Grenfell, the management agent reported that the building was unsafe. An inspection had found an array of hazards not previously listed.

    After the revelations, a group of former Grenfell residents came to visit Vista Tower to raise awareness about the nationwide cladding crisis. Bichener said that one man who had lost a family member in the Grenfell fire told her he was struck by the similarities: “He said he went cold.”

    In November 2020, she was hit with a life-changing bill from the freeholder. “The whole project, all of the remediation, came to about £15 million.” Split between the leaseholders, it worked out to be about £208,000 per flat.

    That bill – almost the same price she initially paid for the flat – has hung over Bichener’s head since. The government has offered little help and the political chaos in Britain has made matters worse. There have been seven housing secretaries in the five years since Grenfell, as the governing Conservative Party remains embroiled in internal strife. Some have begun to make progress – including threatening legal action to get the company that owns Vista Tower to pay up rather than passing the cost on to the residents – only to find themselves out of the job weeks later.

    “I can’t afford to live in this building anymore. I don’t want to pay the service charge, I don’t want to pay all of the horrific leaseholder costs. I just don’t want it. But I can’t get out.”

    Sophie Bichener

    Meanwhile, Bichener is still waiting for her life to get back on track. She is unable to sell, because banks are unwilling to lend against the property, and, in recent months, her mortgage, insurance and service charge have all shot up. The crippling costs meant she delayed getting married and has put off having children.

    “I can’t afford to live in this building anymore. I don’t want to pay the service charge, I don’t want to pay all of the horrific leaseholder costs. I just don’t want it. But I can’t get out,” Bichener, now 30 years old, said. “I’m trapped.”

    And she’s not alone. Hundreds of thousands of people are believed to be in the same boat, but the UK government has failed to commission a full audit, which means the scale of the impact is unclear. Peter Apps, deputy editor at Inside Housing, who has covered the story meticulously over the past five years, estimates there are likely more than 600,000 people in affected tall buildings and millions more in medium-rise towers – those between five and 10 stories. CNN has been unable to verify the precise number.

    The problems playing out now are the result of decades of poor policy choices, according to Apps. His new book detailing the Grenfell tragedy and subsequent inquiry, “Show Me the Bodies,” claims the UK “let Grenfell happen” through a combination of “deregulation, corporate greed and institutional indifference.”

    Evidence presented to the Grenfell Tower Inquiry found that the local council, which managed the building, had made a £300,000 ($389,400) saving by switching higher quality zinc cladding to a cheaper aluminum composite material (ACM). This meant for an additional £2,300 ($3,000) per flat, the fire might have been prevented.

    Any regulations demanding developers use better quality materials were seen as being “anti-business,” Apps told CNN. Developers did not even have to use qualified fire safety inspectors to carry out checks on their buildings – just individuals the developers themselves deemed to be “competent.”

    Five years on, the Grenfell victims' families are still waiting for answers -- and thousands are waiting for their buildings to be made safe.

    So extensive was the deregulation that the problems were not confined just to high-rise tower blocks – or even to cladding. Instead, many low-rise buildings suffer from problems ranging from poor fire cavities to flammable insulation.

    “The cladding wasn’t the issue at all,” said Jennifer Frame, a 44-year-old travel industry analyst, who lived in Richmond House in south-west London. “It was the fact that it was a timber frame building, with a cavity between that and the cladding,” she added, a safety defect that was confirmed by an inspection report.

    One night in September 2019, a fire broke out in a flat in Richmond House. Rather than being contained in one room, the cavity acted “like a chimney,” Frame said. An independent report commissioned by the building owner, Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing Association, and included in written evidence submitted to the UK parliament by residents, revealed that the cavity barriers were either “defective” or “entirely missing” at Richmond House, allowing the fire to spread “almost unhindered” through the 23-flat block.

    “The use of materials such as ACM within cladding systems has rightly attracted a lot of attention since Grenfell. It is now clear that there is a much wider failure by construction companies,” the residents said in their submission.

    Cladding is meant to keep buildings dry and warm, but lax regulations have resulted in flammable materials being used in many cases.

    Sixty residents lost their homes that night. Three years later, Frame is still living in temporary accommodation in the same borough of London, while paying the mortgage for her property which no longer exists. Perversely, she said she feels lucky that it’s only the mortgage – and not the monumental cost of remediations – that she’s on the hook for.

    “I do consider myself – for lack of a better word – one of the lucky ones, as we don’t have the threat of bankruptcy hanging over our head any more,” she said.

    CNN reached out for comment to the developer of Richmond House, Berkeley Group, but did not receive a reply. Berkeley Group has previously denied liability.

    Years of delay and disputes over who should cover the cost, combined with the sheer stress of living in unsafe buildings, have weighed heavily on residents.

    Bichener moved back to her parents’ house in 2020. “I just couldn’t face being there,” she said. “I ended up on anti-anxiety and anti-depression medication just from being in those four walls in a pandemic, in a dangerous home, with a life-changing sum of money that would potentially bankrupt me over my head.”

    At a rally for the End Our Cladding Scandal campaign, she recalled being with a group of people her age and how they all broke down in tears. “They’re the only people who understand the situation you’re in. Everyone’s having huge crises over this.”

    Their options are limited. Most can’t sell their properties, since banks won’t offer mortgages against them. Even if banks were to reverse this policy, it is unclear whether there would be a demand for them, given the spiraling costs of borrowing. According to the residents CNN spoke with, a scant few have been able to sell to cash buyers – but often at a 60-80% loss.

    Some have become “resentful landlords,” a term used by residents who are unable to sell their properties, but are so desperate to move out that they rent it out cheaply to others. Lilli Houghton, 30, rents out her flat in Leeds, a city in the north of England, at a loss to a new tenant. She still pays the service charge for her flat, while also renting a new place elsewhere.

    Most have no choice but to wait – but five years has felt like an eternity. When Zoe Bartley, a 29-year-old lawyer, bought her one-bedroom apartment in Chelmsford, a city in Essex, she thought she’d sell it within a few years to move into a family home.

    But she hasn’t been able to sell. She found a buyer in January 2020 – but their mortgage was declined after an inspection of the building found a number of fire safety defects.

    Bartley’s 15-month-old son still sleeps in her bedroom. When her two stepchildren come to stay, “they have to sleep in the living room,” she said. “When they were four and five and I’d just started dating their dad,” they were excited to have sleepovers in the living room. Now they’re nine and 10, “it’s just pathetic,” Bartley said.

    Bartley said she struggles to sleep knowing that a fire could break out at night. Others who spoke to CNN say they have trained their children on what to do when the alarms go off.

    Earlier this year, residents in unsafe buildings began to see some fledgling signs of progress. In a letter to developers, the then-housing secretary, Michael Gove, said it was “neither fair nor decent that innocent leaseholders … should be landed with bills they cannot afford to fix problems they did not cause.” He set out a plan to work with the industry to find a solution.

    First, he gave developers two months “to agree to a plan of action to fund remediation costs,” estimated at £4 billion (around $5.4 billion). That deadline passed with no agreement reached.

    To force developers’ hands, the Building Safety Act was passed into law in April, which requires the fire safety defects in all buildings above 11 meters to be fixed and created a fund to help cover the costs. The act implemented a “waterfall” system: Developers would be expected to pay first, but, if they are unable to, then the cost would fall to the building owners. If they are also unable to pay, only then would the cost fall to the leaseholders. Leaseholders’ costs were capped at £10,000 ($11,400), or £15,000 ($17,000) in London, for those who met certain criteria. The government asked 53 companies to sign this pledge; many did.

    For many residents, this came as a relief. They had faced life-changing bills for years, but the cap meant they wouldn’t be totally wiped out. It seemed the worst of their worries were over.

    But there was a problem: The pledge made by developers wasn’t legally binding. Even though the government has made money available for remediation, no mechanism has yet forced any developers to make use of it.

    Bichener still doesn't know when remediation work on Vista Tower will begin, how long it will take, or who will pay for it.

    One resident explained to CNN: “Prior to Michael Gove, your building owner could give you a bill to replace the cladding. They’re now not able to do that anymore, but that doesn’t mean your building gets fixed.”

    The government tried again. In July it published contracts to turn the “pledge into legally binding undertakings.” If developers signed the contract, this would commit them to remediating their buildings. Still, there was nothing obliging the developers to sign these contracts – and so none did.

    In October, Vista Tower – where Bichener lives – came under scrutiny. Then-Housing Secretary Simon Clarke set a 21-day deadline for Grey GR, the owner of the building, to commit to fixing it. “The lives of over 100 people living in Vista Tower have been put on hold,” Clarke said. “Enough is enough.” Bichener stressed her building was just one among thousands in need of remediation, but welcomed this as a “step in the right direction.”

    But when that deadline came, Clarke was already out of the job. He had been appointed by former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, but after her six-week premiership came to an end, Clarke was replaced in the subsequent reshuffle. The deadline passed without Grey GR making any commitment.

    Gove was reappointed by new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as Clarke’s successor in October. In response to questions from CNN, the UK’s Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) confirmed that the government has started formal proceedings against Grey GR.

    “We are finalizing the legally binding contracts that developers will sign to fix their unsafe buildings, and expect them to do so very soon,” a DLUHC spokesperson said in a statement.

    “I think the ‘who’s paying’ question will drag on for many years. That might be through court cases and tribunals. But I don’t see how it will be resolved.”

    Sophie Bichener

    Grey GR told CNN that it was “absolutely committed to carrying out the remediation works required,” but that they had not started yet due to obstacles in receiving government funds.

    “Issues with gaining access to [the Building Safety Fund], created by Government, have been, and remain, the fundamental roadblock to progress,” Grey GR said in a statement, adding that the security of residents was of the “utmost priority” and that it was taking steps to make buildings safer.

    But, according to Bichener, residents are no safer than they were five years ago. All that has changed is that, legally, they will no longer have to pay tens or hundreds of thousands of pounds to fix their buildings.

    That hasn’t stopped building owners from seeking funds from residents though. “The amount of £208,430.04 is outstanding in connection with [your] property,” read a letter sent to a resident of Vista Tower by the building owner in November. “We would appreciate your remittance within the next seven days.”

    In the meantime, life for the residents of these buildings goes on. Since speaking to CNN, Bichener got married. She and her husband are both paying off their own mortgages until she is able to sell her flat. For years they had been “stressed,” she said, asking “do we tie ourselves together and have these two properties?” But they decided they couldn’t put their lives on pause forever because of her Vista Tower nightmare.

    “I want to have left,” Bichener said of where she wants to be, a year from now. “The dream is that I no longer own that property and I am long gone and I never have to see it or visit it again.

    “But if I’m realistic, I think we’ll be in the same situation. I think the ‘who’s paying’ question will drag on for many years. That might be through court cases and tribunals. But I don’t see how it will be resolved.”

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  • Housing slump likely to continue but some see hopeful signs ahead | CNN Business

    Housing slump likely to continue but some see hopeful signs ahead | CNN Business

    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Mortgage rates have ticked down recently, but are still up dramatically from a year ago thanks to the surge in long-term bond yields as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates.

    While that’s already had a negative impact on the housing market, we’ll get more details this week about how much worse the damage has become.

    A long list of housing data is on tap. On Tuesday the US Census Bureau will report housing starts and building permits figures for November, followed by Friday’s release of new home sales data for the same month. In between that will be the November existing home sales numbers from the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday, as well as weekly data on mortgage rates and applications on Thursday.

    For the past few months, existing and new home sales have been steadily declining because of the spike in rates and the fact that home prices remain stubbornly high for first-time buyers. Housing starts and building permits have been choppier on a month-to-month basis, but those figures are both down from a year ago.

    Still, there are some promising signs that the worst could soon be over. Shares of Lennar

    (LEN)
    , one of the largest homebuilders in the US, rallied after reporting earnings last week. Revenue topped forecasts and the company’s guidance for the number of homes it expected to deliver next year was a little higher than analysts’ estimates as well.

    Lennar investors “may be looking ahead to 2023, perhaps crossing the valley from recession to potential recovery,” according to CFRA Research analyst Kenneth Leon.

    Others in the industry are cautiously optimistic as well.

    According to data from Amherst Group, an investment firm that buys single-family homes to rent out, it’s important to put the recent slide in prices in context.

    Amherst said home prices are still up about 40% from pre-pandemic levels. So even a further drop of about 15% would merely bring them to mid-2021 levels. In other words, this isn’t like the mid-2000s real estate bubble bursting.

    It’s also worth noting that the job market is still strong and wages are growing. What’s more, many consumers still have decent levels of excess savings thanks to pandemic era government stimulus.

    That all amounts to a few good reasons why the housing market could avoid a severe and prolonged slump.

    “The U.S. housing market is still supported by a tight labor market, the lock-in effect of low fixed mortgage rates for existing homeowners, tight mortgage underwriting, low leverage in the mortgage sector, and low housing supply,” said Brandywine fixed-income analyst Tracy Chen in a report this month.

    “We believe we can avoid a severe housing downturn like the one in the Global Financial Crisis,” Chen added.

    Others point out that even though housing sales may remain weak due to high home prices and still elevated mortgage rates, the good news is that most existing homeowners are still paying their monthly mortgage on time.

    Again, that’s a stark contrast from 2008 when many people with subprime loans or borrowers with poor credit histories were unable to keep up with their mortgage payments.

    “Housing is not bringing down the economy. Yes, the housing market has been impacted. But mortgage delinquencies are still low,” said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.

    There aren’t a ton of companies reporting their latest earnings this week. But the few that are could give more clues about the financial health of consumers and the state of corporate spending.

    Cereal giant General Mills

    (GIS)
    will release earnings on Tuesday. Analysts are expecting a slight increase in both sales and profit. Consumers may be growing increasingly wary about inflation and the broader economy, but they’re still eating their Wheaties. Shares of General Mills

    (GIS)
    have soared nearly 30% this year.

    Analysts are less optimistic about the outlooks for sneaker king and Dow component Nike

    (NKE)
    , used car retailer CarMax

    (KMX)
    and memory chip maker Micron

    (MU)
    , whose semiconductors are used in devices ranging from cell phones and computers to cars.

    Earnings are expected to decline for these three companies. They won’t be the only leaders of Corporate America to report weak results.

    According to data from FactSet, fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to decline 2.8% from a year ago. Analysts have been busy cutting their forecasts too. John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet, noted in a report that fourth-quarter profits were expected to rise 3.7% as recently as September 30.

    Investors are also going to be paying very close attention to what companies say in their earnings reports about their outlooks for 2023. Analysts currently are anticipating earnings growth of 5.3% for 2023. That could be too optimistic… especially if companies start cutting their own forecasts due to worries about the broader economy.

    “Odds of a recession are pretty high,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus & Mellon. “That will have a knock-on effect for corporate earnings. Higher rates and weaker earnings suggest more pain for stocks.”

    Monday: Germany Ifo business climate index

    Tuesday: US housing starts and building permits; China sets loan prime rate; Bank of Japan interest rate decision; earnings from General Mills, Nike, FedEx

    (FDX)
    and Blackberry

    (BB)

    Wednesday: US existing home sales; Germany consumer confidence; earnings from Rite Aid

    (RAD)
    , Carnival

    (CCL)
    , Cintas

    (CTAS)
    , Toro

    (TTC)
    and Micron

    Thursday: US weekly jobless claims; US Q3 GDP (third estimate); earnings from CarMax

    (KMX)
    and Paychex

    Friday: US personal income and spending; US PCE inflation; US new home sales; US durable goods orders; US U. of Michigan consumer sentiment; Japan inflation; UK markets close early

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  • The Grinch comes for retailers | CNN Business

    The Grinch comes for retailers | CNN Business

    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Weaker-than-expected retail sales in November pummeled market sentiment on Thursday and raised the odds that the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting interest rate hikes would push the economy into recession.

    What’s happening: US retail sales, which measure the total amount of money that stores make from selling goods to customers, fell 0.6% in November, the weakest performance in nearly a year. The drop concerned economists who had expected monthly sales to shrink by just 0.1%. It’s also a sharp reversal from October’s sales increase of 1.3%.

    That’s a bad sign for the economy. Just last month Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told CNN that the continued strength of the US consumer is nearly single-handedly staving off recession. Consumer spending is a major driver of the economy, and the last two months of the year can account for about 20% of total retail sales — even more for some retailers, according to National Retail Federation data.

    Market mania: The weak report means that spending faltered just as the holiday season started, a critical time for retailers to ramp up profits and get rid of excess inventory. Investors weren’t too happy about that.

    Shares of Costco

    (COST)
    closed Thursday 4.1% lower, Target

    (CBDY)
    fell by 3.2%, Macy’s

    (M)
    dropped 3.5% and Abercrombie & Fitch

    (ANF)
    was down 6.2%.

    The entire sector took a blow — the VanEck Retail ETF, with Amazon

    (AMZN)
    , Home Depot

    (HD)
    and Walmart

    (WMT)
    as its top three holdings, fell by 2.2%. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF, which follows all S&P retail stocks, was down 2.9%.

    Weak sales are likely to continue, say analysts, and if they do, then retailers’ bottom lines and fourth-quarter earnings will suffer.

    “The headwinds of the past year are catching up to consumers and forcing them to be more conservative in their holiday shopping this winter,” warned Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner in a note.

    The Fed factor: November’s report could indicate that consumers are feeling the double-punch of sky-high inflation and painful interest rate hikes from the central bank. This retail sales data adds to recessionary concerns, as it suggests that consumers may be becoming more cautious with their spending.

    “Households are increasingly relying on their savings to sustain their spending, and many families are resorting to credit to offset the burden of high prices. These trends are unsustainable, and the current credit splurge is a true risk, especially for families at the lower end of the income spectrum,” said Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour, economists at EY Parthenon.

    While American bank accounts are still fairly robust, they’re beginning to dwindle. In the third quarter of 2022, credit card balances jumped 15% year over year. That’s the largest annual jump since the New York Fed began keeping track of the data in 2004.

    “Against this backdrop, we expect consumers will rein in their spending further in coming months,” said Daco and Boussour. “Real consumer spending should see modest growth in the final quarter of the year, but we expect it will barely grow in 2023.”

    Bottom line: If Bank of America’s Moynihan was right, the US economy is in trouble.

    US mortgage rates came in lower once again this week, marking the fifth consecutive drop in a row.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.31% in the week ending December 15, down from 6.33% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. A year ago, the 30-year fixed rate was 3.12%, reports my colleague Anna Bahney.

    That’s a sharp reversal from the upward trend in rates we’ve seen for most of 2022. Those increases were spurred by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of harsh interest rate hikes to tame soaring inflation. But mortgage rates have tumbled in the last several weeks, following data that showed inflation may have finally reached its peak.

    The Fed announced on Wednesday that it will continue to raise interest rates — albeit by a smaller amount than it has been.

    “Mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory this week, as softer inflation data and a modest shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy reverberated through the economy,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

    “The good news for the housing market is that recent declines in rates have led to a stabilization in purchase demand,” he added. “The bad news is that demand remains very weak in the face of affordability hurdles that are still quite high.”

    American regulators have been granted unprecedented access to the full audits of Chinese companies like Alibaba

    (BABA)
    and JD.com

    (JD)
    after threatening to kick the tech giants off US stock exchanges if they did not receive the data.

    The announcement marks a major breakthrough in a yearslong standoff over how Chinese companies listed on Wall Street should be regulated. It will come as a huge relief for these firms and investors who have invested billions of dollars in them, reports my colleague Laura He.

    “For the first time in history, we are able to perform full and thorough inspections and investigations to root out potential problems and hold firms accountable to fix them,” Erica Williams, chair of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, said in a statement Thursday, adding that such access was “historic and unprecedented.”

    More than 100 Chinese companies had been identified by the US securities regulator as facing delisting in 2024 if they did not hand over the audits of their financial statements.

    On Friday, China’s securities regulator said it’s looking forward to working with US officials to continue promoting future audit supervision of companies listed in the United States.

    There are more than 260 Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges, with a combined market capitalization of more than $770 billion, according to recent calculations posted by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

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