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Tag: Mortgage affordability

  • Toronto housing bubble: Is it ready to pop? – MoneySense

    Toronto housing bubble: Is it ready to pop? – MoneySense

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    As an example, someone who considered themselves fortunate to secure a 5-year variable rate mortgage at 0.9% in early 2022 may have seen their interest rate soar to 5.4%, leading to a significantly higher required payment. For some, this situation is painful, and for others, it becomes unmanageable. In extreme cases, selling the home they purchased just a few years ago, because they can no longer afford it, may be their only recourse. 

    Source: Michael Pe, CFA

    Furthermore, demand from foreign buyers has also been curtailed by the Canadian government’s recent ban on non-Canadians purchasing property. Resident investors, who have significantly contributed to home price inflation, are also likely to be affected by higher interest rates and diminishing cash flow. 

    When will the Toronto real estate bubble burst? While pinpointing the exact timing of Toronto’s potential real estate correction remains challenging, signs of deflation may already be underway. The TRREB has its benchmark prices, designed to estimate the value of a typical home in the area without distortion from outliers. In October, the real estate board reported the benchmark at $1,103,600, indicating a 2.1% dip from September’s $1,127,000. 

    The prospect of a prolonged period of increased interest rates, driven by the Bank of Canada’s cautious stance amid inflation concerns, alongside reduced affordability, restrictions on foreign buyers, and decreased local investor activity due to higher interest rates, suggests the potential for further market deflation.

    When will housing prices hit bottom?

    Prices are dropping in Toronto, and in Canada as a whole. However, it’s uncertain whether prices will continue to decline or not. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) forecasted home prices to increase in 2024. And according to recent stats from real estate firm Wahl’s 2023 GTA Housing Snapshot Report, underbidding has been rising over the past five months (81% in October). To me, the growth underbidding indicates there are less buyers and lower prices.

    Optimists may argue we’ve seen this environment before, with affordability as the ongoing issue. They may contend that the lack of housing supply and the resilience of the housing market will continue to drive up home values. However, certain conditions such as astronomical inflation and rapid interest rate increases have not been seen in decades. This present landscape contains a new set of headlines, setting the stage for potential falling home prices.

    While it’s impossible to definitively predict if and when the Toronto real estate market will experience a downturn, it’s evident that skyrocketing prices have created an affordability problem for many. 

    Simultaneously, though, it disproportionately benefited others, such as property investors. Despite current conditions suggesting diminishing housing demand, including that of investors, policy makers in Canada, including Toronto, must address and moderate this type of demand in the future. Even after interest rates come down. 

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    Michael Pe, CFA

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  • Mortgage affordability calculator – MoneySense

    Mortgage affordability calculator – MoneySense

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    Mortgage affordability is an essential part of setting up your home-buying budget, and it’s based on a many factors—more on those later. If you’re looking to buy a home, one of the first things you’ll want to know is your mortgage affordability. And for that, you should start by consulting an online calculator.

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    What is mortgage affordability?

    When people say “mortgage affordability” they’re referring to the maximum mortgage amount someone can afford to borrow, based on their gross income, debt payments and living costs. In short, the higher your mortgage affordability amount, the more money you could borrow to buy your new home. 

    What factors help to determine mortgage affordability? These include your gross household income, the monthly expenses associated with the property you want to buy (think: mortgage payments, property taxes, heating costs and condo fees), as well as your debt obligations (credit card payments and car loans). When you complete a mortgage application, the lender may also take your credit history into account.

    Watch: What is mortgage affordability?

    Why should you use a mortgage affordability calculator? 

    Using a mortgage affordability calculator is an important first step towards determining how much you can spend on a home. These calculators take your gross income, debts and other living expenses to calculate the maximum amount you can borrow as a mortgage. Together, your down payment and mortgage amount will give you an estimate of the maximum you can spend on a home. This, in turn, can help you decide if buying real estate makes sense for you financially. It can also help to narrow the search for your dream home.

    With a mortgage affordability calculator, you can play with the inputs to see the impact they have on your maximum affordability. For example, by paying down debt (which reduces your overall debt load), you should be able to obtain a larger mortgage. Similarly, a jump in household income will allow you to borrow more money, too.

    Since these calculations are based on averages, it’s good practice to confirm what you can afford on a mortgage with a mortgage lender, who will take the nuances of your financial situation into account. For example, if you have a credit score that’s under 600, you may have difficulty qualifying for a mortgage from a top-tier lender and may need to consult alternative lenders, which a mortgage broker can help with.

    How does it work?

    To use the mortgage affordability calculator, you’ll need to gather the following information:

    • Your income
    • Your co-applicant’s income (if applicable)
    • Your monthly debt payments, including credit cards, car payments and other loan expenses
    • Your expected monthly living costs in your new home, including property tax, condo fees and heating costs, as applicable

    These factors are used by lenders to calculate two ratios that serve as guidelines in determining how much you can afford. They are called the gross debt service (GDS) ratio and the total debt service (TDS) ratio. 

    Gross debt service ratio

    Your GDS ratio is based on your monthly housing costs (mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and heating expenses and condo fees, if applicable), divided by your gross household income (calculated on a per-month basis). For example, let’s say you have a gross household income of $100,000 per year. If your new home costs you $3,000 per month, you would have a GDS ratio of 36%. Your GDS ratio cannot exceed 39%, according to the Canada Housing and Mortgage Corporation (CMHC).

    Total debt service ratio

    The other ratio used to calculate affordability is your TDS ratio. This ratio takes the above housing expenses and adds your credit card interest, car payments and other loan expenses, then divides it by your gross household income (calculated on a per-month basis). For example, if your household brings in $100,000 per year, your housing costs amount to $3,000 per month and you spend $500 per month on other debts, you would have a TDS ratio of 42%. For the home to be affordable according to CMHC, your TDS ratio cannot exceed 44%.

    Mortgage affordability versus your maximum purchase price

    There’s a difference between how much you can afford to borrow for your mortgage and the maximum you can (or should) spend on a home. 

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    Jordann Brown

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  • Housing affordability is so strained that 1 in 5 couples ask for down payment cash on their wedding registry. Your friends and family would rather give you cash to go to Mexico

    Housing affordability is so strained that 1 in 5 couples ask for down payment cash on their wedding registry. Your friends and family would rather give you cash to go to Mexico

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    For millennials and Gen Z, the American Dream milestone of buying a home can feel hopelessly out of reach as mortgage rates hover around 8% and home prices continue to rise. 

    As a result, one in 5 engaged couples are rejecting the linens and dishes of traditional wedding registries and asking friends and family for down payment cash instead, according to an October report by Zillow and The Knot, a wedding planning site. 

    With an average of $70,000 needed for a 20% down payment on a starter home, it’s understandable that couples would search for creative ways to get cash. 

    “I think we can be optimistic that instead of throwing in the towel, young couples are willing to give up tangible gifts or even honeymoon funds in order to get closer to achieving the American Dream of homeownership,”  Amanda Pendleton, a personal finance expert at Zillow Home Loans, tells Fortune. “They see the value of saving for an appreciating asset, as opposed to the immediate gratification of new bedding or silverware.”   

    But there’s a slight problem: It seems wedding guests are put off by this request, as data shows friends and family are less enthusiastic about the new breed of  honeymoon registry. 

    The typical couple receives 32% more for a honeymoon fund, with an average of $767, compared with a new home fund average of $556, Esther Lee, deputy editor of The Knot, tells Fortune

    With mortgage rates hitting 23-year highs this fall and home prices on the rise, why would wedding guests be more willing to give to a honeymoon, than something more practical like a first-home fund? It’s time for a small lesson in what experts call behavioral economics.

    The power of choice 

    Morgan Ward, a marketing professor at top-ranked Emory University’s Goizueta Business School says it could be because people like to give more “hedonic” products as gifts—or things that the recipient wouldn’t otherwise purchase for themselves. Ward earned her Ph.D. in marketing from the University of Texas at Austin’s McCombs School of Business and her primary research focus is consumer behavior. A gift-giver knows that whether or not they give to a first-home fund, the recipient will purchase it themselves, she says.

    “A honeymoon fund is probably something that’s perceived by givers as elective—and certainly hedonic—and thus by giving a higher dollar gift, the giver can offer something the recipient wouldn’t otherwise have access to,” she tells Fortune. “On the other hand, I would guess that givers think of a new home as more utilitarian and thus, less fun to give and probably something that the recipients will purchase themselves irrespective of whether they receive money for it as a gift.”

    Ward also conducted research in 2016 that shows how wedding gift-giving differs from other types of gift-giving. For one, she found that when givers were faced with purchasing from a gift registry versus making their own choices of a gift, they often rejected the gift registry.

    “It turns out that givers say they want to please the recipient as their highest priority, but often they’re using gift-giving opportunities as a way to signal their sentiments or the meaning of the relationship,” Ward adds.

    Guests may also be more generous toward a honeymoon fund because they can give to specific experiences—whether it’s sunset cocktails, a tasting menu at dinner, a glass-bottomed kayak, snorkeling, or a ski lift pass in the Alps, Lee says—instead of donating to one giant fund where they may not understand the impact of their gift. 

    “This allows couples to piecemeal their honeymoon fund even further, thus helping guests participate in each chosen experience,” Lee says. “The overall home fund is seemingly a more sizable amount that may seem daunting up front to guests. But with each contribution, a new home fund can become more approachable, with more guests potentially feeling more open to contributing.”

    Soaring home prices fuel trend

    While the trend of adding first-home funds to wedding registries isn’t completely new, “they’ve really picked up steam” in the past few years, Cathryn Haight, editor of gifting and stationery at The Knot, previously told Fortune. Since 2018, the share of couples including “home funds” as part of their wedding registry has increased 55%, according to Zillow and The Knot.

    While any money is helpful when it comes to purchasing a home, hundreds of dollars could really just be a drop in the bucket for newlywed couples. 

    The value of the typical home in the U.S. right now is about $350,000, Pendleton says, which means a couple would need to come up with $70,000 if they plan on putting down 20% on the home purchase. By comparison, the average cost of a wedding in the U.S. is $30,000 which includes the ceremony and reception, according to The Knot 2022 Real Weddings Study.

    “This is a lot of cash and can be very intimidating for young couples looking to buy their first home,” Pendleton says. “Oftentimes, putting less than 20% down is totally doable, and your loan officer can talk you through your options. Keep in mind though, that the less money you put down, the higher your monthly mortgage payment will be.” 

    Fortune was early to report on this trend earlier this summer, sharing the love story of Oliver and Cassie Nilsson who first met in 2012 at an Outback Steakhouse. When it came time for them to wed and buy a house, they hadn’t realized exactly how bad the market had gotten and how much cash they’d need. 

    “Our expectation was as soon as I graduated college we would buy a house,” Oliver told Fortune. “We wanted to get a townhouse because we want a little yard for dogs. But we quickly realized that was not on the table for us, especially with the interest rate being so high.”

    The couple ended up living with Oliver’s parents for eight months to save up enough money to afford to buy a condo. To help with the down payment on their home, the couple added a “first-home fund”—their one and only request on their wedding registry. 

    “Honest to God, it was this [the first-home fund] and his parents letting us stay there,” Cassie told Fortune. “We would have never been able [to buy]. We would have rented our whole life.”

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    Sydney Lake

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  • Tools to calculate your mortgage payments and costs in Canada – MoneySense

    Tools to calculate your mortgage payments and costs in Canada – MoneySense

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    Mortgage payment calculator

    Understanding the long-term financial implications of a home mortgage, particularly the cumulative impact of interest, can be complicated. A mortgage payment calculator is an essential tool to help you make informed home buying decisions. It helps you estimate your regular mortgage payments based on the home’s purchase price, down payment size, loan interest rate and amortization.

    A reliable mortgage payment calculator provides a comprehensive overview of your expected payments, including the total interest you’ll pay over the mortgage term. Additionally, many other housing expenses, such as property taxes, land transfer taxes, and the need for mortgage default insurance, are directly linked to the size of your mortgage and the home’s value. 

    The mortgage payment calculator on MoneySense helps you understand your mortgage payments, including the required closing cash and monthly carrying expenses you will need to buy the home you want. 

    Mortgage insurance calculator

    If you buy a home with less than a 20% down payment in Canada, you must get mortgage default insurance (sometimes, referred to as mortgage insurance). Unlike home insurance, which covers property damage, mortgage default insurance protects the lender if something happens and you can no longer make your mortgage payments. In Canada, this type of insurance is provided by three institutions: CMHC, Sagen and Canada Guaranty.

    The mortgage insurance calculator on MoneySense calculates how much you will pay for mortgage default insurance. Your premium is based on the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of your home.

    Based on this ratio, the insurance premium falls between 2.8% and 4% for down payments below 20%. While a down payment higher than this may exempt you from purchasing mortgage insurance, the lender might still require it in certain situations. To use the tool, enter the asking price and down payment amount, and it will provide an estimate of your mortgage insurance premium. 

    Land transfer tax calculator

    A one-time fee called a land transfer tax (or land transfer fee) must be paid whenever a property changes hands. The charge is levied by the provincial and territorial governments and/or local municipalities. 

    Land transfer tax—which must be paid in cash—is in effect across all regions except Alberta, Saskatchewan and the three territories. In these areas, a much smaller land transfer fee is imposed instead. If you’re purchasing in Toronto or Montreal, you’ll pay municipal land transfer tax in addition to provincial land transfer tax. 

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    Angela Serednicki

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