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Tag: money-market funds

  • Why I’m not doing anything to cope with lower interest rates

    Why I’m not doing anything to cope with lower interest rates

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    How should a retail investor deal with Wednesday’s interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and with the future rate cuts that seem to be on the horizon?

    What I plan to do is nothing. Which may be what you should do too.

    How can I say “do nothing” when the airwaves, print media, and the internet are filled with advice and suggestions — and warnings — about how to handle the Fed’s rate cut?

    Let me show you why my wife and I aren’t planning to do anything about the rate cuts, which will reduce our interest income but not threaten our overall financial well-being. And why you may not want to do anything, either.

    Here’s the deal. The Fed has cut the federal funds rate to between 4.5% and 4.75% from the former 5% to 5.25%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that the Fed is planning at least one more rate cut this year.

    8/29/24

    The Fed controls only this short-term rate, but lowering it puts downward pressure on longer-term rates as well. That’s great, of course, for many of us, making it easier and cheaper to borrow. But it’s not great for savers. That’s because the income they get on their savings is going to decline.

    Read more: The Fed rate cut: What it means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

    We have significant cash holdings, which we keep in low-cost, high-quality money market funds. Our income from those funds, which has risen nicely over the past few years, is going to decline. But such is life.

    Some people advise you to lock up yields by switching cash into long-term bonds or long-term certificates of deposit, whose interest rates are fixed and won’t fall because of the Fed’s rate cuts.

    However, there’s a problem with doing that.

    Locking up yields by buying long-term bonds or CDs makes your money illiquid. This exposes you to some long-term risks, such as having to sell at a loss if rates rise — which they will sooner or later, trust me —or if you need the cash that you’ve locked up long-term.

    WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 01: Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell announces that interest rates will remain unchanged during a news conference at the bank's William McChesney Martin building  on May 01, 2024 in Washington, DC. Following the regular two-day Federal Open Markets Committee meeting, Powell said the U.S. economy continues to show momentum and inflation has remained high in recent months, informing the Fed's decision to keep their current 5.33 percent rate setting. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    Money market man? Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell (Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) (Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images)

    By contrast, if you’ve done what we have done — put our surplus cash into well-regarded, low-cost money market funds — your income will go down when the Fed’s rate cuts work their way through the financial system. But you’ve still got liquidity, the ability to access your cash on demand, which is very important.

    The one thing that I won’t do — and that you shouldn’t do, either — is to put my money into a bank savings account, which typically pays yields approaching zero. The rates on those accounts aren’t likely to fall much, if at all, because they’re already so low.

    So if you’ve got $3,000 or more of cash sitting in a bank savings account but don’t have a money fund account, you’ll probably do well to open an account in a low-cost, high-quality fund.

    To be sure, unlike bank accounts, money funds aren’t backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. But there are plenty of high-quality, conservatively run low-cost funds. It’s a very competitive business, with $6.68 trillion in assets, according to Crane Data. They are highly unlikely to fail.

    The most important thing for you to do now is to stay calm and remember that if you end up doing nothing to cope with lower interest rates, you’ll have plenty of company. Including me.

    Warren Buffett, presidente y director general de Berkshire Hathaway, habla durante una partida de bridge tras la reunión anual de accionistas de Berkshire Hathaway el 5 de mayo de 2019, en Omaha, Nebraska. (Foto AP/Nati Harnik, Archivo)Warren Buffett, presidente y director general de Berkshire Hathaway, habla durante una partida de bridge tras la reunión anual de accionistas de Berkshire Hathaway el 5 de mayo de 2019, en Omaha, Nebraska. (Foto AP/Nati Harnik, Archivo)

    Don’t doubt WB: Warren Buffett in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo: AP/Nati Harnik, Archivo) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

    Last July, I wrote a Yahoo Finance column with the headline, Warren Buffett is turning 94 next month. Should Berkshire investors start to worry? I said that Berkshire Hathaway stock had underperformed Admiral shares of Vanguard’s S&P 500 index fund since my wife and I bought Berkshire shares in January 2016.

    Berkshire has since rallied and outperformed the S&P 500.

    At Thursday’s market close, Berkshire was up 253% (15.6% a year) since we bought it. During that same period, the index fund has returned 242% (15.2% a year), according to Jeff DeMaso of the Independent Vanguard Adviser.

    Score one for the Oracle of Omaha.

    Allan Sloan, a contributor to Yahoo Finance, is a seven-time winner of the Loeb Award, business journalism’s highest honor.

    Click here for the latest personal finance news to help you with investing, paying off debt, buying a home, retirement, and more

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  • ETFs are on pace to break record annual inflows, but this wild card could change it all

    ETFs are on pace to break record annual inflows, but this wild card could change it all

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    Exchange-traded fund inflows have already topped monthly records in 2024, and managers think inflows could see an impact from the money market fund boom before year-end.

    “With that $6 trillion plus parked in money market funds, I do think that is really the biggest wild card for the remainder of the year,” Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Whether it be flows into REIT ETFs or just the broader ETF market, that’s going to be a real potential catalyst here to watch.”

    Total assets in money market funds set a new high of $6.24 trillion this past week, according to the Investment Company Institute. Assets have hit peak levels this year as investors wait for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

    “If that yield comes down, the return on money market funds should come down as well,” said State Street Global Advisors’ Matt Bartolini in the same interview. “So as rates fall, we should expect to see some of that capital that has been on the sidelines in cash when cash was sort of cool again, start to go back into the marketplace.”

    Bartolini, the firm’s head of SPDR Americas Research, sees that money moving into stocks, other higher-yielding areas of the fixed income marketplace and parts of the ETF market.

    “I think one of the areas that I think is probably going to pick up a little bit more is around gold ETFs,” Bartolini added. “They’ve had about 2.2 billion of inflows the last three months, really strong close last year. So I think the future is still bright for the overall industry.”

    Meanwhile, Geraci expects large, megacap ETFs to benefit. He also thinks the transition could be promising for ETF inflow levels as they approach 2021 records of $909 billion.

    “Assuming stocks don’t experience a massive pullback, I think investors will continue to allocate here, and ETF inflows can break that record,” he said.

    Disclaimer

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  • Wall Street says buy stocks that pay dividends with $6 trillion of cash ready to be deployed

    Wall Street says buy stocks that pay dividends with $6 trillion of cash ready to be deployed

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    Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BI

    • Dividend stocks are set to surge as investors deploy $6 trillion from money-market funds, Bank of America says.

    • Investors could be looking to invest their cash as the Fed gets ready to cut interest rates in September.

    • BMO agrees, and recommends high-yielding stocks including Abbvie, Chevron, and Gilead Sciences.

    Dividend-paying stocks are poised to surge in the second half of the year as investors start to deploy the $6 trillion sitting in money market funds, according to Bank of America.

    Strategist Savita Subramanian called the dividend trade a “pain trade,” meaning the bulk of investors are not properly positioned for the potential upside gains in dividend-paying stocks.

    “Over $6 trillion sits in US money market funds as the Fed is poised to start cutting rates,” Subramanian said in a note this week. “Bond funds have seen record flows YTD, but we see more opportunities within equities for investors searching for yield.”

    There are more than 200 S&P 500 stocks that offer a higher real return potential than the 2% offered by the 10-year Treasury yield, according to the note, and about 75% of those stocks are under-owned by professional investors.

    Some of the highest-yielding S&P 500 companies include Walgreens Boot Alliance, Altria, Verizon, Ford, and AT&T. And while the S&P 500 as a whole offers a dividend yield of about 1.25%, there are nearly 300 S&P 500 stocks that offer a higher yield.

    “Overall, we expect dividends to make up a larger proportion of returns than the outsized price returns and multiple expansion of the past decade,” Subramanian said.

    BMO’s Brian Belski is another Wall Street strategist who expects big gains to be had from dividend paying stocks, especially after their lackluster performance since the October 2022 stock market bottom.

    “We believe these stocks have turned the corner and recent relative strength is likely to persist in the coming months,” Belski said in a note on Tuesday. “With the Fed now likely to cut rates sooner than previously anticipated, the likely drop in longer-term yields in response should provide a boost.”

    Some of the high-paying dividend stocks recommended by Belski include Abbvie, Chevron, Duke Energy, Gilead Sciences, and Pfizer.

    As investors hunt for yield at a time when interest rates are about to fall, dividend-paying stocks could be the underloved area of the stock market that is set to boom.

    The Fed is expected to make its first interest rate cut of the current cycle at its September FOMC meeting.

    Read the original article on Business Insider

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