Monero (XMR) has witnessed a sharp rally to a new record during the last few days, but social media suggests FOMO could be brewing in the market.
Monero Has Shot Up To A New All-Time High
Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies have been locked in consolidation recently, but Monero has been an outlier, with its price breaking away with a strong surge.
Below is a chart that showcases how the asset’s recent performance has looked.
The sharp rally has led to new all-time highs (ATHs) for the privacy-focused token, with the latest one coming earlier in the past day around $695. XMR has retraced a bit since this new high, but it’s still in a weekly profit of 51%, which is significantly higher than the returns of other top assets.
For perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen returns of +1% and -2% in this period, respectively. Fellow privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) was flying earlier, but the asset has faced a steep 23% drop during the same window.
Generally, rallies of the order that Monero has seen attract attention from traders, and data would confirm that the same has been true for the latest one as well.
XMR Has Seen A Peak In Social Dominance Recently
According to data from analytics firm Santiment, the Monero Social Dominance witnessed a spike recently. This indicator keeps track of the percentage of the Social Volume associated with the top 100 tokens that a given cryptocurrency is responsible for.
The Social Volume here refers to a measure of the total number of posts/comments/threads on the major social media platforms that contain mentions of a given asset. In other words, it tells us about the amount of discussion that a particular coin is receiving from social media users.
As such, the Social Dominance contains information about how the degree of talk surrounding a cryptocurrency compares against that of the top 100 coins combined.
Here is a chart that shows the trend in this metric for Monero since the start of 2026:
As displayed in the above graph, the Monero Social Dominance saw a huge spike on Sunday as the asset’s rally took off, suggesting social media interest in the asset shot up.
Historically, a rapid surge in the Social Dominance has often corresponded to Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) developing among traders, which is something that tends to not end well for rallies.
Despite the crowd excitement, however, XMR has only continued to go up since the spike, setting new ATHs. Given the past pattern with digital asset markets, though, it only remains to be seen how long the coin can sustain its move.
Monero (XMR) is back under heavy pressure as the market-wide correction deepens, with the privacy-focused cryptocurrency dropping 8% in the past 24 hours to trade at $375.
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This decline marks the fourth consecutive day of losses, erasing last week’s recovery and signaling a shift in sentiment as traders increasingly position for a deeper pullback.
Fresh derivatives data reflect rising bearish conviction. According to CoinGlass, Monero’s futures Open Interest has fallen over the last 24 hours, while short positions now account for more than 55% of all trades.
The drop in OI, now hovering around $78 million, suggests traders are withdrawing capital as fear of further downside builds.
Technical indicators support this shift. The RSI has slipped below the midline, showing weakening momentum, while the MACD indicator has flashed a fresh sell signal. Together, these point toward deteriorating buying interest and a growing risk that XMR may not hold its current support levels.
Support Threatened as Analysts Eye Breakdown Toward $350
Despite XMR maintaining an overall bullish structure on higher timeframes in recent months, the short-term outlook has flipped decisively bearish. The price is now testing key support zones, with the 50-day EMA at $348 emerging as the next major level to watch.
A close below $358, which aligns with the neckline of a double-top pattern, would confirm a bearish breakdown, potentially accelerating losses toward the low-$300 region.
Analysts warn that this scenario becomes more likely if market demand continues to weaken, particularly as retail traders rotate into alternative opportunities and risk sentiment remains fragile.
Still, not all indicators point south. Analysts note that as long as XMR holds above $373, there remains potential for an intraday rebound toward the $400–$410 resistance range. But with the price already slipping below that threshold, bulls may face an uphill battle to reassert control.
Privacy Narrative Remains Strong, but Momentum Falters
Despite the near-term weakness, Monero continues to benefit from growing interest in privacy-preserving technologies.
Recent upgrades, such as the Fluorine Fermi hard fork, have strengthened network security and improved resistance against surveillance-based threats. Long-term forecasts remain cautiously optimistic, with projections suggesting steady, though moderate, growth through 2030 and beyond.
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For now, however, XMR remains vulnerable. Unless buyers step in to defend the $350–$360 support zone, analysts warn that the correction could deepen further before any meaningful recovery takes shape.
Cover image from ChatGPT, XMRUSD chart from Tradingview
Justin Bons, the founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin’s (BTC) future, predicting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could collapse in the coming years. The crypto founder has cited Bitcoin’s declining security model and shrinking block rewards as some of the indicators of this seemingly inevitable crash.
Bitcoin Forecasted To Collapse Within 7-11 Years
This week, the crypto community was shaken by a striking prediction from Bons, who warned that Bitcoin could face a catastrophic collapse within the next decade. According to an X social media post released by the Cyber Capital founder, the foundations of Bitcoin’s security model are fundamentally broken, and the decline of mining revenue will eventually leave the network increasingly vulnerable to attacks.
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Bons projected that Bitcoin’s downfall could occur precisely between 7 and 11 years, when the block rewards diminish to levels that can no longer sustain miner incentives. His reasoning is rooted in the economics of the Bitcoin protocol, which relies on a declining block subsidy over time. By 11 years from now, the reward is expected to fall to just 0.39 BTC per block, translating to roughly $2.3 billion annually at current prices. This figure, the crypto founder argues, is nowhere near enough to protect Bitcoin’s multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization.
Bons also shared two charts to reinforce his claims. The first shows mining revenue in sharp decline relative to previous years, demonstrating Bitcoin’s reliance on subsidy rather than transaction fees. The second chart reveals how the annual security budget as a percentage of market cap has fallen consistently over the years, shrinking from over 8% in 2015 to barely above 1% in 2025.
The Cyber Capital CIO also pointed out that while other chains like Ethereum have successfully transitioned toward greater fee-based security, Bitcoin has failed to adapt, leaving its miners increasingly dependent on dwindling rewards. According to his post, the consequences of this are dire. As mining becomes unprofitable, he predicts that the network’s security could simultaneously decline, opening the door to censorship, 51% attacks, and eventual chain splits.
If core developers respond by raising the supply cap beyond 21 million, Bons forecasts that this could fracture the community and destroy Bitcoin’s narrative of digital scarcity. He warned that relying on a system that demands perpetual price doubling to maintain its security forever is nothing short of “madness.”
Community Pushes Back Against BTC Crash Claims
Unsurprisingly, Bon’s foreboding forecast has sparked intense debate and contrasting views throughout the crypto community. Many members pushed back, acknowledging the concerns about a shrinking security budget but challenging the inevitability of a Bitcoin collapse.
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Some argued that BTC has historically adapted to challenges and that transaction fees, along with scaling solutions, could still provide sustainable long-term security. Others suggested alternative mechanisms, such as MEV capture, sidechain fees, or even institutional miners operating at a loss to keep the network alive.
One community member raised the possibility of emergency measures like tail emissions or block size increases, citing Monero’s ongoing debate about similar solutions. Bons conceded that a tail emission might keep the chain alive but insisted it would come at the cost of Bitcoin’s core value proposition, which is fixed scarcity. In his view, such a compromise would leave BTC unable to compete against more adaptive blockchains.
BTC trading at $115,318 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The blockchain focused on user privacy saw one of its mining pools take over the network’s hash rate.
No damage has been reported yet, but history suggests that extensive losses could occur once the harm has been done.
Taking Over Control
The cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has temporarily stopped Monero deposits to the platform due to the ongoing 51% attack against the privacy-focused blockchain.
This attack is made possible when a single mining entity controls over 50% of the network’s hash rate (the computational power needed to validate transactions), allowing them to double-spend (i.e., unauthorized production and spending of money) and reorder transactions on the blockchain ledger.
This was flagged by the exchange on Friday, and as of the time of writing, there has been a new update posted:
“Monero (XMR) deposits have been re-enabled and now require 720 confirmations before crediting. Given the current uncertainty around the security of the Monero network due to significant consolidation of hash rate under a single entity, Kraken may halt deposits at any time and delay crediting at its discretion.”
The mining pool responsible for the disruption is Qubic, a blockchain that hosts an AI model called AIGarth. According to a post on their blog, this was an experiment they conducted earlier last week, and they claimed this was possible via unique consensus models available on their chain. This was aimed at proving that Monero’s network is not secure enough and that Qubic’s validators should be responsible for securing it going forward.
They further stated that the “Monero network’s core functionality remains intact. Its privacy, speed, and usability have not been compromised.”
The team behind the blockchain network has not yet confirmed or denied any aftereffects of the attack. At press time, the native token, XMR, trades at around $276, even up 4% on the day, unaffected by the event.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Previous Examples Of Such Attacks
While it’s still early to determine if this controversial attack will have any effects on the blockchain, there have been past scenarios where the consequences have been quite detrimental.
Ethereum Classic (ETC), a split from the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain we know today, is the “classic” version of the chain that was initially launched in 2015. Between 2019 and 2020, the network suffered two 51% attacks involving double-spending, resulting in over $6 million in losses.
Another spin-off, Bitcoin Gold (BTG), the “user-friendly” alternative to Bitcoin (BTC), underwent a double-spend attack in 2018, resulting in a loss of around $18 million.
The majority of this type of attack has subsided in recent years, primarily due to technological advancements, blockchain upgrades, and improvements in consensus models. As noted above, we have yet to see the impact of this most recent network security breach.
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In a first for Japanese law enforcement, authorities have tracked and analyzed Monero (XMR) transactions to arrest 18 alleged scammers.
Yuta Kobayashi, the 26-year-old suspected leader of the group, has been charged with laundering funds through Monero and engaging in computer fraud by exploiting stolen credit card details.
Money Laundering Activities Through Monero
According to a recent report by the local media outlet Nikkei, Kobayashi led a group that illicitly profited by using credit cards under other people’s names. They allegedly laundered money using the privacy-focused cryptocurrency Monero.
The Cyber Special Investigation Unit of the National Police Agency and the Saitama Prefectural Police, along with other authorities, were able to trace the transactions and identify Kobayashi. The group’s operations involved listing fake products on the marketplace “Mercari” and completing 42 fraudulent transactions using stolen credit card information in June and July 2021, defrauding the platform of over 2.75 million yen, worth approximately $18,400.
During the same period, they conducted around 900 money laundering transactions using Monero, worth around 100 million yen or $670,000.
Investigators believe the stolen credit card details were likely obtained through phishing scams via fake websites or emails. They also discovered that the group used anonymous communication apps and recruited members through illegal job listings on various social media platforms.
Monero Faces Growing Restrictions
Monero has faced increasing scrutiny from regulators worldwide due to its strong privacy features, which make it difficult to trace transactions and identify users. This has raised concerns about its potential use in illegal activities, such as money laundering and tax evasion.
As a result, various countries have implemented measures to restrict or ban the use of Monero. For instance, Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) prohibited all activities involving privacy coins.
Exchanges like Kraken have delisted Monero for users in certain regions, reflecting a growing trend of regulatory ire aimed at these cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Europol recently revealed in its report that Monero is being increasingly used by ransomware groups as an alternative to Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin has remained the most used cryptocurrency by criminals, even with the rise of privacy coins like Monero.
According to the recent Europol Internet Organized Crime Threat Assessment report, financial crimes are also still the main illicit crypto use.
Bitcoin’s Popularity with Criminals Sparks Concerns
Bitcoin has been the preferred asset for ransomware groups due to its accessibility for non-savvy users compared to alternatives like Monero (XMR). Despite this, criminals often convert Bitcoin to stablecoins to avoid market volatility, particularly when obtained through investment fraud.
According to the report, the increasing prices of cryptos and media attention have led to a surge in fraudulent investment schemes. Cryptocurrencies, particularly the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin Tether (USDT) on the Tron (TRX) network, are frequently reported in such schemes, likely due to the network’s low transaction fees.
In addition, altcoin use in illicit activities has surged, with underground banking and crypto debit cards gaining popularity for quick conversion to cash at automated teller machines (ATMs).
There’s also a growing trend of using encrypted messaging apps for cash-to-crypto exchanges, allowing criminals to bypass compliance checks and conceal their identities.
Meanwhile, Europol expressed concerns about the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, saying they could open new avenues for scammers. Moreover, companies issuing these ETFs hold significant crypto reserves, making them attractive targets for fraudsters.
Monero is Gaining Traction Among Criminals
While Bitcoin remains the preferred crypto for ransomware groups, Europol’s report highlights the rising use of Monero (XMR) as an alternative. Monero’s privacy features make it an optimal choice for criminals looking to conceal their funds.
In January 2024, a significant crypto-jacking operation was uncovered in Ukraine. The operation had covertly mined over €1.8 million ($1.95 million) worth of cryptos. While the scheme primarily focused on mining Monero, it also included Ethereum (ETH) and Toncoin (TON).
The report emphasized that the decentralization inherent in Web3, blockchain technology, and peer-to-peer (P2P) networks creates environments conducive to cybercrime. These technologies enable transactions to be conducted anonymously and beyond the reach of authorities. Europol warned that as these decentralized systems continue to evolve, they will increasingly facilitate cybercriminal activities.
Europol noted law enforcement’s challenges in tracking and prosecuting such activities, especially when virtual asset service providers are non-compliant and offshore-based. This is due to privacy laws, especially concerning end-to-end encryption (E2EE) communication platforms, which prevent law enforcement agencies from accessing any criminal communications.
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A new report by Kaiko reveals that the liquidity for privacy tokens has plummeted to an all-time low of just $5 million.
This drop follows the delisting of several trading pairs by OKX for not meeting certain criteria.
Regulatory Challenges Behind Delisting
Regulatory pressures have particularly impacted tokens like Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC), pushing them to the brink of being delisted from platforms like Binance due to low liquidity.
Despite the market turmoil, the end of 2023 witnessed several notable developments. During last week’s sell-off, the trade volume on Korean exchanges reached a multi-year high. Bitcoin’s share rose to 32%, a level not seen since 2020, amid a general drop in altcoin trading volumes.
This shift in trading dynamics came despite increasing regulatory efforts in South Korea, including proposed rules for crypto exchanges and a ban on crypto purchases with credit cards.
The market for SOL (Solana) also saw positive trends. At times, SOL’s trading volume surpassed the combined volume of Bitcoin and Ether on several exchanges, a rare event in the crypto world. This surge in SOL’s market share, particularly against Ether, signals a shifting landscape in the altcoin domain.
Meanwhile, PYUSD has had a slow start in the crypto trading sphere. Despite being listed on several centralized exchanges, its trading volume remains significantly low compared to established stablecoins like Tether (USDT).
Bitcoin Braces for Volatility as SEC Decides on Spot ETFs
January 10 marks a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency world, with the SEC set to decide on Ark’s spot Bitcoin ETF. Irrespective of the outcome, the market is bracing for more volatility.
This comes after Bitcoin ended the week on a positive note, following a price crash that led to hundreds of millions in liquidations. Initially attributed to an analyst’s speculation about the spot Bitcoin ETF decision, further reports indicate deeper underlying issues.
Before the crash, market indicators such as price slippage signaled trouble. Slippage rates on major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken rose above 0.02% on January 2, indicating deteriorating liquidity even as Bitcoin prices hovered around $45,000.
Futures markets also painted a picture of an overheated market. Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest in USD hit a peak of $10 billion in early December, the highest since November 2021.
This spike in open interest pointed to increased leverage in the market. Additionally, high volumes in options markets, particularly Bitcoin options on Deribit, indicated traders’ anticipation of volatility in light of the spot ETF decision.
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As commerce becomes increasingly global, the financial system grows and digital assets become more ingrained in our lives than ever before, governments and regulators are pushing back with even more restrictions to maintain control over the industry. Some would argue that they have gone too far, or are fighting the wrong battles. In light of the pace of innovation, especially in the cryptocurrency space, where privacy is often mandatory, these distractions are likely to keep them playing catch up and perhaps on the wrong side of history.
Key Background
In May 2021, the Treasury Department released the Biden administration’s revenue proposals for fiscal year 2022. They include a key requirement that would apply stringent reporting requirements to all business and personal accounts from financial institutions. Specifically the proposal covers, “bank, loan, and investment accounts, with the exception of accounts below a low de minimis gross flow threshold of $600 or fair market value of $600.” In other words, financial institutions will report any flows in and out of business and personal accounts of more than $600 regardless of whether they are based in fiat or cryptocurrency. Then in late October the Treasury offered an additional threshold of more than $10,000 in transfers in a given year.
All of this adds to a restrictive climate towards crypto, especially for ‘privacy coins’, a part of the industry that promotes privacy as its key value proposition. This sentiment has put them under the regulatory microscope and led several exchanges to de-list certain tokens to avoid regulatory ire.
Things are not stopping at US shores either. Internationally, in late October 2021 the global AML agency, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) released its updated guidance for firms that handle cryptocurrency and virtual assets. The guidance increased transactional reporting requirements for virtual asset service providers (VASPs), which are defined to include a lot more companies than just centralized exchanges.
However, rather than lying down, as governments continue to encroach on financial privacy, the cryptocurrency community is pushing forward with privacy initiatives to safeguard this basic human right. The most recent example came last week when Findora, a privacy-centric blockchain developed by Discreet Labs announced a $100 million ecosystem fund to be used for research, development of new applications, infrastructure such as staking, and liquidity so these platforms and ‘privacy coins’ offer similar levels of utility to more prominent blockchains such as Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Investors are noticing. Many privacy coins have proven to be solid investments in 2021, as several have quietly outperformed bitcoin during this bull market, which bodes well for the industry moving forward.
Key Actors
Treasury Department & Internal Revenue Service (IRS)
Financial Action Task Force (FATF)
New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) – Jon Blattmachr (Deputy GC of INX, former Virtual Currency Chief of NYDFS)
Zcash – Zooko Wilco and Josh Swihart
Monero – Riccardo Spagni
Cake Wallet – Vik Sharma
Findora/Discreet Labs – Warren Paul Anderson
Secret Foundation – Tor Bair
Broader Context
Contrary to the popular narrative, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies do not provide a high degree of anonymity or privacy. Bitcoin is pseudonymous, meaning transactions are linked to your wallet address rather than your name. Bitcoin’s transactional records are stored on the public blockchain in plain view; so as a result, Bitcoin is one of the more transparent ways to send money. While someone’s full name would likely not be connected directly to a Bitcoin transaction, the network can see everyone’s public address and it doesn’t take much to pair an identity to a public key. This means transaction amounts, frequency, and balances are all open for the entire public to see. Many cryptocurrency exchanges also require their users to go through their anti-money laundering/customer due diligence (AML/KYC) to define customers’ identities before using the platform. Additionally, the growing cottage industry of crypto forensic and analytic companies led by Chainalsyis, Elliptic, and CipherTrace have proven adept at attaching identities to illicit transactions. In this sense, legal tender today is much more private than bitcoin.
According to Warren Anderson, VP of Product at Discreet Labs, the team behind Findora, “[w]hen someone exchanges coins or banknotes for a good or service, that transaction is only known to the two parties involved. . .Further, if you hand a $10 bill to the woman at the local farmer’s market, she can’t look up how much you have left in your bank account.”
Privacy coins are specifically designed to add a much needed layer of privacy to the benefits and functionality of cryptocurrency. A privacy coin can keep information about its users hidden, including identity, size of cryptocurrency transactions, or the amount of cryptocurrency a person holds. Most projects have some sort of “view key” in which a user, exchange or regulator can pierce through the privacy layer and access the encrypted information.
Examples of Privacy Coins
There are a variety of privacy coins that function in different ways. A few are listed below:
Zcash — Zcash was launched in October 2016 as a fork of Bitcoin and uses zero-knowledge proofs to provide a means for nodes on the network to verify that a transaction is valid. It accomplishes this feat without giving them any information about the transaction, including sender, receiver, or transaction amount. One unique characteristic about Zcash is that it not only facilitates fully private transactions, but it also offers public transactions similar to Bitcoin or the ability to make certain aspects of a transaction public or private. Zcash’s transparent setting is its default, not shielded and exchanges can reveal information to law enforcement. This makes it arguably more friendly to regulators than other options.
Monero – Monero launched in 2014 as a Bytecoin fork, a privacy focused cryptocurrency based on CryptoNote technology and launched in July 2012. Monero relies on stealth addresses and ring signatures to hide everything from the addresses of the sender and recipient to the full transaction amount. Privacy coins that use stealth addresses create new addresses for every single cryptocurrency transaction while Ring signatures group many public keys together in a transaction so that outside observers cannot determine the exact participants. Monero also offers optionality for users to reveal their transaction but it cannot be forced by law enforcement or an exchange. Only the key holder can reveal their transactions.
Findora — Findora is a public blockchain with programmable privacy. Findora utilizes zero-knowledge proofs and multi-party computation to allow users transactional privacy with selective auditability. Whereas some privacy protocols, namely Zcash and Monero, offer simple reveal keys to allow transaction auditability, Findora takes it a step further with selective disclosure agreements by supporting a variety of other compliance proofs to allow for more enhanced auditability without compromising privacy. Findora began as a research project in 2017, but mainnet beta launched March 2021 after a fund raise in late December 2020.
Secret Network – Secret Network is said to be the first blockchain to integrate privacy by default for Ethereum smart contracts. Smart contracts are self-executing pieces of code that are managed on a blockchain like Ethereum. Secret Network improves upon traditional smart contracts by supporting encrypted information within the contract.
“Regulators inherently dislike privacy. But that’s only because when they hear privacy, they think secrecy. These concepts are not one in the same.” – Warren Anderson, VP of Product at Discreet Labs
Financial Privacy – A Historical Review
The desire and need for privacy is a generally accepted concept that started long before crypto. Most people are very familiar with the Fourth Amendment, which originally enforced the notion that “each man’s home is his castle” that is secure from unreasonable searches and seizures of property by the government. The Fourth Amendment protects against arbitrary arrests, and is the basis of the law regarding search warrants, stop-and-frisk, safety inspections, wiretaps, and other forms of surveillance.
The Fourth Amendment’s protections apply to financial privacy as well. The Right to Financial Privacy Act of 1978 protects the confidentiality of personal financial records by creating a statutory Fourth Amendment protection for bank records. Generally, the Act requires that federal government agencies provide individuals with a notice and an opportunity to object before a bank or other specified institution can disclose personal financial information to a federal government agency, often for law enforcement purposes. The Act was in response to the U.S. Supreme Court’s 1976 ruling in United States v. Miller, where the Court found that bank customers had no legal right to privacy in their financial information held by financial institutions.
The United States also understands the importance of privacy and encryption of transactions and payments on the internet. Once commerce became a large use-case for the internet, thieves made efforts to steal credit card numbers printed in clear text in the unencrypted HTTP traffic. According to Zooko Wilcox, founder of Zcash, the solution turned out to be encryption, though this was initially controversial. In the early days of the Internet, the National Security Agency (NSA) and others were concerned about the potential use of cryptography by terrorists and criminals. Today, HTTPS is a requirement for transmitting data on the internet and is mandatory for all US government agencies, including those which were initially against public access to encryption.
Privacy is fundamental to security and usability, and users deserve and expect strong privacy protections no matter where they’re active online.” – Tor Bair, Founder of Secret Foundation
Regulatory Mistrust of the Desire for Privacy
Like the days of the internet and the introduction of HTTPS, regulators are still uncomfortable with the concept of financial privacy and privacy coins. The Right to Financial Privacy Act of 1978 offers clear classes of exceptions in which certain financial records are not protected by the Act, for example as it relates to tax reporting, pursuant to other federal statutes or rules, administrative or judicial proceedings, and legitimate functions of supervisory agencies or if the subject of a suspicious activity report (see 12 U.S.C. §3403(c)). In these situations, disclosure by a financial institution is permitted, and no subpoena or warrant is required. In many ways, regulators seem to equate the desire for privacy with someone who has something to hide. This can be especially true when it comes to cryptocurrency, and was a key point of contention when the IRS submitted a John Doe summons to Coinbase in 2016 in hopes of identifying crypto tax evaders.
A primary concern of regulators is preventing money laundering and terrorist financing. Bank Secrecy Act (/BSA) Requirements require companies to implement KYC and transaction monitoring. Further, BSA rule 31 CFR 103.33(g) — often called the ”Travel Rule” — requires all financial institutions to pass on certain information to the next financial institution, in certain funds transmittals involving more than one financial institution.
Under the Travel Rule, all transmittor’s financial institutions must include and send the following in the transmittal order to the recipient financial institution:
The name of the transmitter,
The account number of the transmitter, if used,
The address of the transmitter,
The identity of the transmitter’s financial institution, The amount of the transmittal order,
The execution date of the transmittal order, and
The identity of the recipient’s financial institution;
and, if received:
The name of the recipient,
The address of the recipient,
The account number of the recipient, and Any other specific identifier of the recipient.
FATF recently released its updated guidance to include firms that handle cryptocurrency and virtual assets. Since 2018, FATF has issued a series of draft papers that sought to define VASPs and virtual assets, and also recommend how countries implement the Travel Rule for cryptocurrency transfers.
Comparison of requirements under BSA and Travel Rule
CipherTrace
More recently, FATF has tried to account for transactions to and from “unhosted wallets,” decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs).
The above requirements appear to stand in conflict with the goal of privacy coins which can shield potentially identifying information about transferors, transferees, and holders. Regulators are worried that these features can enable money laundering and terrorist financing by preventing their ability to track the movement of the coins.
Privacy coin laws vary by country, as with any other cryptocurrency. Some ban them outright, while others leave them in a legal gray area. South Korea and Japan, for example, have decided to make the use and possession of privacy coins illegal.
Josh Swihart of Zcash noted to me, “The categorization of some coins as ‘privacy coins’ is going to lead to brittle regulations with regulators trying to play privacy whack-a-mole. Policy makers should be pushing for privacy rather than fighting against it in order to protect civil liberties as well as national security.”
New York Department of Finance Services As a Microcosm Of Privacy Coin Scrutiny
Perhaps the competing priorities of privacy and regulation are no better exemplified than what is happening in New York. Privacy coins are especially limited for New York residents as a result of the New York Bitlicense. Section 200.10 states that any Bitlicensee “must obtain the superintendent’s prior written approval for any plan or proposal to introduce or offer a materially new product, service, or activity, or to make a material change to an existing product, service, or activity, involving New York or New York residents.” In New York, for many years this meant that exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini who have the Bitlicense still needed to obtain approval from New York on a coin-by-coin basis.
“At NYDFS, we had presentations that helped folks understand that there are many existing methods by which most cryptocurrencies, even BTC and ETH, can have their transactions masked. This masking can lead to transactions that make them as private as the privacy coins we’re discussing. This engagement didn’t lead to DFS’s backing down from its position on privacy coins, but the more regulators know, the more they can make rational, informed decisions about policy.” – Jon Blattmachr
As Bair told me, “Regulators are often nervous about centralized exchanges listing privacy coins because it breaks the link between fiat onramps and Web3 activity. Control and oversight of onramps and offramps is critical to extending the control and surveillance regulators already exert over the traditional financial system.”
In 2019, NYDFS responded to years of complaints that the Bitlicense slowed adoption of new products and services in New York by proposing a token approval procedure. The new procedure allows exchanges to bring their token listing policy to New York and, once approved, there is an automatic approval of tokens that the exchange puts through their process. This removed NYDFS involvement in approving coin by coin basis.
NYDFS Coin-Listing Process
NYDFS
There is just one problem. NYDFS explicitly stated, “Consistent with the intent and purpose of 23 NYCRR 200.15(g), a VC Entity cannot self-certify any coin that may facilitate the obfuscation or concealment of the identity of a customer or counterparty. Thus, for example, no privacy coin can be self-certified. A VC Entity also cannot self-certify any coin that is designed or substantially used to circumvent laws and regulations (for example, gambling coins).” (emphasis added).
NYDFS also offers a green list of tokens for New York but no privacy coins are included.
No privacy coins appear on the NYDFS pre-approval list
NYDFS
As Vik Sharma, founder of Cake Wallet, a noncustodial wallet for Monero, told me, “As NYDFS slightly opened the door for Bitlicense holders to more quickly list additional assets, they kept the door closed for ‘privacy coins.’ The issues with this decision remain: 1) ‘privacy coin’ is ill-defined, meaning it is applied based on optics instead of actual money laundering and terrorist financing risks, and 2) the vast majority of money laundering and terrorist financing risks remain on the Bitcoin network.”
“If a regulator were to allow the coins to be listed on its regulated exchanges, the regulator is endorsing the use of these coins and opening them up to many more users. Ironically, of course, if people are using privacy coins on an exchange, they’re far more traceable than between unhosted wallets.” – Jon Blattmachr, Deputy General Counsel of INX and former Virtual Currency Chief of NYDFS
Privacy Coins Outperform As Investments
While over the last two years the outlook for privacy coins appeared bleak from a regulatory perspective, and some such as Monero and Zcash were delisted from certain exchanges such as Bittrex and ShapeShift, privacy coins have still turned out to largely be strong investments. Especially so when compared to bitcoin.
Privacy coins are holding their own against bitcoin
TradingView
There are a couple of reasons for this. First, like most cryptocurrencies, privacy coins tend to move in the same direction as bitcoin. Second, many of these platforms have loyal followings that see these assets as more than just a transactional opportunity, but as a higher calling for a basic human right.
That said, because of their thinner trading volumes, and smaller usage rates, privacy coins may be more volatile than the base asset. Privacy coins are arguably an important tool of asset diversification in any portfolio provided that the regulatory climate does not tighten due to increased concerns about ransomware or other factors.
Outlook
What does the future of privacy coins look like in the US and internationally? Many would argue it will be similar to HTTPS and how the government eventually agreed with the need for privacy and encryption.
Industry groups and companies must continue to engage with regulators to discuss privacy coins, eliminate misconceptions, and responsibly articulate the value of financial privacy. These issues are unlikely to be solved anytime soon.
In Jon Blattmachr’s words, “Engagement with the regulators is paramount. Regulators are always going to be behind the curve when it comes to new technologies and iterations using those technologies. Regulators are understaffed and are not focused on what’s next, but what’s in front of them right now.”
That’s why industry engagement with regulators is so important. It allows the industry to show regulators that privacy coins are not as detrimental to AML efforts as perceived and alo explain how regulators can oversee in the space while still allowing for innovation.
TALLIN, Estonia, April 23, 2019 (Newswire.com)
– CoinLoan crypto-backed lending platform presents a dynamic risk-management system that is capable of resisting market fluctuations. In numbers, this translates into raising the LTV limit to 70 percent and liquidation threshold to more than 90 percent. In practice, it allows borrowers to get more fiat against their crypto and not care too much about margin calls.
The Necessary Evil of Crypto-Lending
Crypto-backed lending services help hodlers to access the liquidity of their coins by borrowing against them rather than selling them. No wonder that such services gained wide popularity during the last couple of years. The high liquidity and boundless nature turn cryptocurrencies into almost perfect collateral.
But “almost” is the key word here; obstacles come from extreme volatility. Giving $700 against cryptoasset valued at $1,000 today, no one can be sure that collateral price won’t drop below $700 tomorrow.
Problems of Low LTVs and Liquidation Risk
There’s a proven model to cope with crypto market fluctuations. It operates perfectly for lenders, but mainly at the cost of borrowers. To be on the safe side, lending platforms put Loan-to-Value limit down, so our users can usually take no more than $500 for cryptoasset worth $1,000.
Liquidation point is set way too low as well. If the collateral value drops, increasing the LTV (no higher than 80 percent usually), the system will alert the borrower and ask him to add more fiat or crypto to maintain a healthy LTV ratio. Otherwise, cryptocollateral will be liquidated automatically to secure the lender’s funds.
How to Handle Volatility
Alex Faliushin, co-founder and CEO at CoinLoan, explained how his team found a solution to the crypto-lending issues:
“It was obvious that liquidation approaches are far from perfect. Over the past year, we’ve been testing new risk-management ideas. Today we have a solution that makes things as convenient as possible for borrowers.”
In short, CoinLoan’s dynamic liquidation system allows cryptocollateral to become resistant to market movements. Liquidation point is estimated for each loan individually and depends on the interest rate. For loans with an interest rate of up to 12 percent, the threshold is expected to be 92 percent, for those between 13 percent to 24 percent it will be 91 percent and so on. In all cases, liquidation may only occur when LTV is over 90 percent.
“Such a high liquidation threshold enables us to increase the LTV limit as well. In other words, a borrower gets more money for his crypto. Today, CoinLoan platform is open to 70 percent LTV loans; it’s one of the best conditions on the market,” adds Alex Faliushin.