A Russian and Chinese naval patrol consisting of several vessels operated off the coast of Alaska last week, defense officials and lawmakers said over the weekend – a show of force that prompted a US military response but did not pose a threat to the US or Canada, a US Northern Command spokesperson told CNN.
NORTHCOM and the North American Aerospace Defense Command deployed planes and ships to monitor the Russian and Chinese patrol, which stayed in international waters, the spokesperson said.
Alaska’s Republican Sens. Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski said in a statement Saturday that a total of 11 Russian and Chinese vessels had been operating near the Aleutian Islands, and were met in response by four US Navy destroyers. Murkowski said that she and Sullivan had been in “close contact with leadership from Alaska Command for several days now and received detailed classified briefings about the foreign vessels that are transiting U.S. waters in the Aleutians.”
Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu told CNN in a statement that “according to the annual cooperation plan between the Chinese and Russian militaries, naval vessels of the two countries have recently conducted joint maritime patrols in relevant waters in the western and northern Pacific Ocean. This action is not targeted at any third party and has nothing to do with the current international and regional situation.”
Sullivan said that Chinese and Russian vessels came similarly close to Alaska last summer and were encountered by a US Coast Guard ship on a routine patrol at the time – a “tepid” response, the senator added, that led him to press senior military leaders to be ready with a more robust response in the future.
“For that reason, I was heartened to see that this latest incursion was met with four U.S. Navy destroyers, which sends a strong message to (Chinese President) Xi Jinping and (Russian President Vladimir) Putin that the United States will not hesitate to protect and defend our vital national interests in Alaska,” Sullivan said.
Blake Herzinger, a research fellow at the United States Studies Center in Australia, echoed the NORTHCOM repsonse that the Chinese and Russian warships were not a threat and acted according to international law just as US Navy vessels do when operating off the Chinese or Russian coasts.
But he said the US statement affirming the navigation rights of the foreign warships was in contrast to reactions from Beijing to similar US Navy sailings.
“Chinese responses to similar operations in the Indo-Pacific … hype up imagined threats and broadcast their military response as efforts to eject invaders from their waters,” Herzinger said.
Russia and China have intensified their defense and economic partnership considerably since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, according to a July US intelligence report, and the countries have repeatedly pledged to strengthen their military ties.
Russian fighter aircraft approached US F-35 fighter jets and other Coalition aircraft over Syria on seven occasions during the month of August and in several instances flew within 1,000 feet, the Pentagon said Friday.
Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, said the Russian jets’ actions were “unsafe and unprofessional,” adding that the Russian fighters flew in “aggressive maneuvers, several of which were inside 1,000 feet.”
The unsafe maneuvers, Ryder said, “increase the risk of miscalculation and are not reflective of the behavior we’d expect from a professional air force.” The most recent unsafe maneuvers took place on August 25, according to the Pentagon.
Over the last several years, the US and Russia have used a deconfliction line between the two militaries in Syria to avoid unintentional mistakes or encounters that can inadvertently lead to escalation. Still, Russian pilots have a history of interacting with US and Coalition aircraft in unsafe manners.
In April, US Central Command said Russian pilots tried to “dogfight” US jets over Syria – adding at the time to a pattern of more aggressive behavior. In military aviation, dogfighting is engaging in aerial combat, often at relatively close ranges.
A video released by US Central Command from April 2 showed a Russian SU-35 fighter jet conducting an “unsafe and unprofessional” intercept of a US F-16 fighter jet. A second video from April 18 showed a Russian fighter that violated coalition airspace and came within 2,000 feet of a US aircraft, a distance a fighter jet can cover in a matter of seconds.
A US official previously told CNN that the Russian pilots did not appear in those cases to be trying to shoot down American jets, but they may have been trying to “provoke” the US and “draw us into an international incident.”
Ryder on Friday called on Russia “to cease this reckless activity.”
“We call on the Russian Air Force to cease this reckless activity, but regardless will continue to remain focused on our mission to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS,” he said.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Sunday that the Defense Department appropriations bill that was paused last week before it even made it to the floor for debate will come up for a vote this week “win or lose.”
“We will do that this week,” McCarthy said on Fox News, adding “unfortunately I had a handful of members last week that literally stopped the Department of Defense appropriations coming forward,” referring to members of his right flank who have stymied two appropriations bills thus far.
“I gave them an opportunity this weekend to try to work through this, and we’ll bring it to the floor win or lose,” McCarthy told Maria Bartiromo.
House Republican leadership was hoping to put a series of standalone spending bills on the floor to try to build consensus and unite the conference, but it’s been a gamble. Leadership was left scrambling over the defense spending bill after one member of the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina, voted against the bill in the Rules Committee and another, Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina, told CNN he would vote against the rule on the floor.
Both the debate and the scheduled votes were pulled minutes before the chamber was due to gavel in Wednesday.
McCarthy on Sunday pointed a finger at the Senate, saying not only does the House have to work with the upper chamber, but that the Senate “blew up last week too. They couldn’t pass anything.”
“And unfortunately on the Senate side, the Republicans and Democrats over there are writing bills to spend more money. Ours are the most conservative, but if we don’t ask them, we’re weaker in the negotiations. So anytime a Republican wants to hold back and stop the floor from working when Republicans have the majority, that puts us in a weaker position to win in the end of the day,” he said.
But McCarthy said a government shutdown “would only give strength to the Democrats. It would give the power to Biden.”
With no serious progress on Capitol Hill as Congress stares down a spending deadline at the end of the month, lawmakers are acknowledging that at this point a government shutdown is not only possible, but may soon be inevitable.
That’s particularly true if the political dynamics at play among McCarthy, the hardliners in his conference and the US Senate don’t change fast.
“I want to make sure we don’t shut down. I don’t think that is a win for the American public and I definitely believe that will make (Republicans’) hand weaker,” McCarthy said.
A US warship that intercepted drones and missiles near the coast of Yemen on Thursday encountered a larger and more sustained barrage than was previously known, shooting down 4 cruise missiles and 15 drones over a period of 9 hours, according to a US official familiar with the situation.
The USS Carney, an Arleigh-Burke class destroyer that traversed the Suez Canal heading south on Wednesday, intercepted the missiles and drones as they were heading north along the Red Sea. Their trajectory left little doubt that the projectiles were headed for Israel, the official said, a clearer assessment than the Pentagon’s initial take.
A sustained barrage of drones and missiles targeting Israel from far outside the Gaza conflict is one of a series of worrying signs that the war risks escalating beyond the borders of the coastal enclave.
In addition to protests at US embassies across the Middle East, US and coalition forces in Syria and Iraq have come under repeated attack over the past several days.
On Thursday, Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said the missiles were fired by Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen and were launched “potentially towards targets in Israel.” At the briefing, Ryder said three land-attack cruise missiles and “several” drones.
Some of the projectiles were traveling at altitudes that made them a potential risk to commercial aviation when they were intercepted, the US official said. The drones and missiles were intercepted with SM-2 surface-to-air missiles launched from the USS Carney.
US interceptions of Houthi launches are exceedingly rare, making the timing of this incident, as tensions rise in Israel, more significant. In October 2016, the USS Mason deployed countermeasures to stop an attempted attack in the Red Sea targeting the Navy destroyer and other ships nearby. In response, the US fired sea-launched cruise missiles at Houthi radar facilities in Yemen.
On Wednesday, one-way attack drones targeted two different US positions in Iraq, according to US Central Command. One of the attacks resulted in minor injuries. One day later, the At-Tanf garrison in Syria, which houses US and coalition forces, was targeted by two drones, which also caused minor injuries.
Early Friday morning in Iraq, two rockets targeted the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center near the airport, which houses US military, diplomatic and civilian personnel, according to another US defense official. One rocket was intercepted by a counter-rocket system, while the second hit an empty storage facility, the official said. No one was injured as a result of the rocket attack.
The US has not assigned attribution for any of the recent attacks in Iraq and Syria, though Iranian proxies have carried out similar drone and rocket attacks against US forces in both countries in the past.
The US military has carried out strikes on Iranian-backed militias as a response to previous such attacks against US forces, but the Pentagon would not say anything yet about its intentions.
“While I’m not going to forecast any potential response to these attacks, I will say that we will take all necessary actions to defend US and coalition forces against any threat,” said Ryder. “Any response, should one occur, will come at a time and a manner of our choosing.”
Russia’s Wagner Group might carry out “sabotage actions” and their threat should not be underestimated, said Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on Thursday, warning that the mercenary group’s provocations are an attempt to destabilize NATO.
Morawiecki and Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda met at the Suwałki Gap to discuss the threat posed by the Wagner forces, some of whom have relocated to Belarus following the aborted mutiny in June against the Kremlin.
“Our borders have been stopping various hybrid attacks for years,” Morawiecki said. “Russia and Belarus are increasing their numerous provocations and intrigues in order to destabilize the border of NATO’s eastern flank.”
Nausėda echoed the sentiment, saying the presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus is a security risk for Lithuania, Poland and other NATO allies.
“We stay vigilant and prepared for any possible scenario,” Nausėda wrote on social media. Morawiecki said that the number of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus could exceed 4,000.
The Polish prime minister also thanked Lithuania for “military cooperation and for the joint promise that we will defend every piece of land of NATO countries.”
“Today, the borders of Poland and Lithuania are the borders of the free world that stops the pressure from the despotism from the East,” he said, about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing war on Ukraine.
Nausėda said that any closing of the border with Belarus is a decision that should be taken “in a coordinated way between Poland, Lithuania and Latvia,” national broadcaster LRT reported.
Some Wagner troops have moved to Belarus from Russia under a deal to end the group’s 24-hour rebellion against Moscow led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. The move immediately sparked tension with Belarusian neighbors, prompting Poland to re-station military units to the east of the country, closer to the frontier with Belarus.
Tensions escalated Tuesday when Poland moved troops to its border after accusing two Belarusian helicopters of breaching its airspace. Belarus denied the accusation, but Poland notified NATO and summoned Belarusian representatives to discuss the incident.
KYIV — An overnight naval drone attack against a Russian tanker in the Black Sea signals a potential new front in the Ukraine war, with Kyiv delivering its strongest message to date that it is willing to target Moscow’s all-important shipments of oil and fuel.
The battle for supremacy in the Black Sea is ramping up fast, with massive implications for global energy and food security. The attack on the tanker off Crimea came only a day after another Ukrainian marine drone — a flat, arrowhead-shaped vessel packed with explosives — targeted a Russian naval base near the port of Novorossiysk, badly damaging a warship.
“The tanker was damaged in the Kerch Strait during an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” Russia’s state-run TASS news agency reported on Saturday. “The crew is safe, the Maritime Rescue Center informed us. The engine room was damaged. Two tugboats arrived at the scene of an emergency with a tanker in the Kerch Strait, the question of the towing vessel is being resolved,” it said.
Russia’s Federal Marine and River Transport Agency reported it was a SIG oil and chemical tanker — a ship whose owner, St. Petersburg-based company Transpetrochart, was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2019 for supplying jet fuel for Russian forces in Syria.
Tensions are rising in the Black Sea after Russia last month announced it was withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative and started attacking Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea coast and on the Danube River with missiles, destroying tens of thousands of tons of Ukrainian grain.
After those attacks and the blockade, Ukrainian officials issued a statement in July that Russian vessels will be no longer safe in the Black Sea. Kyiv’s defense ministry said in a statement that such vessels “may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the corresponding risks” from midnight Friday.
On Saturday, Kyiv announced a “war risk area” around Russian ports on the Black Sea, specifically citing the ports of Novorossiysk, Anapa, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman. The declaration will be in effect from August 23 “until further notice,” it said.
‘Completely legal’
Marine Traffic, an online maritime tracking site, has the latest position of the SIG tanker fixed near the Kerch Strait “at anchor.”
Russia’s Marine and River Transport Agency reported all 11 crew members on board were safe and that the tanker was struck in the engine room near the waterline on the starboard side, presumably as a result of an attack by a marine drone. By morning, the water pouring to the engine room has been staunched, and the vessel was afloat, Russian official said.
Ukraine almost never directly takes responsibility for these kinds of attacks. However, Vasyl Malyuk, head of the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, has previously claimed responsibility for the attacks on the Crimean bridge and hinted that there will be more similar attacks soon.
“Anything that happens with the ships of the Russian Federation or the Crimean Bridge is an absolutely logical and effective step in relation to the enemy. Moreover, such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal,” Malyuk said in a statement on Saturday.
“So, if the Russians want that to stop, they should leave the territorial waters of Ukraine and our land. And the sooner they do it, the better it will be for them. Because we will one hundred percent defeat the enemy in this war.”
Waters near Russian-occupied Crimea and the Kerch Strait are Ukrainian territorial waters, according to international maritime law.
“Since 1991, Russia has systematically used the territorial waters of Ukraine to organize armed aggressions: against the Georgian people and against the people of Syria,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a social media post on Saturday.
“Today, they terrorize peaceful Ukrainian cities and destroy grain, condemning hundreds of millions to starvation. It’s time to say to the Russian killers, ‘It’s enough.’ There are no more safe waters or peaceful harbors for you in the Black and Azov Seas,” the ministry said.
The National Park Service and US National Archives and Records Administration are calling on Americans to help reveal the untold stories of the United States’ first veterans to commemorate the upcoming 250th anniversary of American independence.
The Revolutionary War Pension Files Transcription Project aims to transcribe approximately 2.3 million original documents that correspond with more than 83,000 individual soldiers. The information spans 150 years, from wartime records to 20th century inquiries made by veterans’ descendants.
The goal of the project is to unearth personal stories from the battlefield and home front, using information included in federal pension applications from Revolutionary War veterans and their widows, according to the National Park Service. And they need the public’s help to do it.
“We’re asking the public in the next three years, as we lead up to the 250th anniversary of the United States, to help us transcribe the pension files to be able to unlock these stories of our first veterans,” Suzanne Isaacs, community manager for the National Archives Catalog, said.
While the Continental Army issued signed discharge papers, veterans who served in the militia had to give oral testimonies and provide witnesses to corroborate their stories. As a result, thousands of court records have yet to be digitally transcribed in the National Archives Catalog.
These verbal attestations were an opportunity for veterans to tell their stories in vivid detail. When pension acts were put in place in the early 19th century, many veterans were elderly and illiterate, so they gave detailed accounts in hopes of recording their life stories.
However, relying on oral testimonies also allowed for embellished tales that were difficult to disprove.
For example, William Shoemaker testified that he spent 18 months as a prisoner of war to receive pension pay. Historian Todd Braisted discovered, more than two centuries later, that Shoemaker joined a loyalist unit and was captive for only two months.
When requirements for pension pay loosened in the 1830s, widows who were married before the conclusion of the war became eligible to apply. To receive funds, widows had to give oral testimonies about their husbands’ service and provide proof of their marriage.
Judith Lines applied for widow’s pension in 1837 using one of the rarest kinds of documents – a correspondence from her husband written during his service under Gen. George Washington. John Lines’ 1781 note is the only known preserved letter penned by a Black Continental soldier.
With the help of volunteer archivists, these rare, firsthand stories from the Revolutionary War will be more accessible to the public and archived in the National Archives. Volunteers can register for a free account with the National Archives Catalog. No prior experience is required.
“This project is a way to help make accessible the records of our first veterans, the veterans of the Revolutionary War,” Isaacs said.
The veterans and their families might never have imagined that their accounts of the war and its effects on their lives could be so readily available to the nation. The documents included in this project offer a personal perspective that, before now, was largely unknown.
Three drones were intercepted on Sunday in an attempted attack on “Moscow City” – a business and shopping development in the west of the city, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said.
“One Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was destroyed in the air by air defense forces over the territory of the Odintsovo district of Moscow region,” a statement said.
“Two more drones were jammed using electronic warfare capabilities and after losing control, they crashed on the territory of a complex of non-residential buildings in Moscow City.”
CNN has not been able to verify the origin of the drones that few over Moscow on Sunday.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) were first deployed by Ukraine to help artillery locate Russian targets on the battlefield, and now many believe they are being used to hit targets well inside Russian territory.
Russian state news agency TASS reported the attack, attributing it to security sources. “There was a strike in the building of the “IQ-Quarter” located in “Moscow City” (shopping center),” TASS said.
In subsequent reporting, it added that a “temporary no fly zone had been introduced for the Moscow flight zone… reported by emergency services.”
“As a result of the strike, glass broke on the fifth and sixth floors of the 50-story building. There are no casualties. It did not result in a fire.”
Videos showed debris as well as emergency services at the scene.
A witness told Reuters that there were explosions and fire. “My friends and I rented an apartment to come here and unwind, and at some point, we heard an explosion – it was like a wave, everyone jumped,” she said. “There was a lot of smoke, and you couldn’t see anything. From above, you could see fire.”
It also came after a Russian missile attack on the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy late on Saturday, which left at least one civilian dead and five others wounded, according to Ukraine’s Interior Ministry.
Response teams were on site and continuing firefighting effects, the ministry added.
Sunday’s drone attack was the second reported in Moscow in the past week.
Ukrainian forces carried out drone strikes on July 24, Ukrainian officials confirmed with CNN, addingthat security forces were responsible for the strike. Russian officials said it was a “terrorist attack of the Kiev regime.”
Ukrainian Minister Mykhailo Fedorov whose Digital Transformation Ministry oversees the country’s “Army of Drones” procurement plan, said there would be more strikes to come.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Russian Africa forum in St. Petersburg on Saturday, President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow had never rejected peace negotiations with Ukraine and a ceasefire was hard to implement when the Ukrainian army was on the offensive.
To start the process an agreement is needed from both sides, Putin added.
US officials are searching for Chinese malware hidden in various defense systems that could disrupt military communications and resupply operations, The New York Times reported Saturday.
The administration believes malicious computer code has been hidden inside “networks controlling power grids, communications systems and water supplies that feed military bases,” officials told the Times. The discovery has heightened concerns that hackers could “disrupt US military operations in the event of a conflict,” according to the Times. The two nations have been increasingly at odds over Taiwan as well as over China’s actions in the Indo-Pacific.
One congressional official told the newspaper that the malware was “a ticking time bomb” that could allow China to cut off power, water and communications to military bases, slowing deployments and resupply operations. Because military bases often share the same supply infrastructure as civilian homes and businesses, many other Americans could also be affected, officials told the Times.
The malware revelations echo a pattern of recent breaches by China-based hackers previously reported by CNN.
Last week, the email account of US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns was hacked, three US officials familiar with the matter told CNN.
Earlier this month, Microsoft and the White House confirmed that China-based hackers breached email accounts at two dozen organizations, including some federal agencies. The Biden administration believes the hacking operation – which Microsoft said was launched in mid-May – gave the Chinese government insights about US thinking heading into Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to Beijing in June.
Among the agencies targeted were the State Department and the Department of Commerce, which has sanctioned Chinese telecom firms. US officials and Microsoft analysts initially had trouble identifying how the hackers got into the email accounts, which made clear that they were dealing with a sophisticated hacking team, a US official told CNN.
US officials have consistently labeled China as the most advanced of US adversaries in cyberspace, a domain that has repeatedly been a source of bilateral tension in recent years. The FBI has said Beijing has a larger hacking program than all other governments combined.
Blinken raised the hacking incidents in a meeting with a top Chinese diplomat in Indonesia earlier this month, a senior State Department official told CNN, but the official would not “get into the specifics” of the extent to which the hack was raised.
“We have consistently made clear that any action that targets US government, US companies, American citizens, is a deep concern to us and that we will take appropriate action to hold those responsible accountable and the secretary made that clear again,” the official said.
The Ukrainian military is doubling down on efforts to break through thick Russian defenses in its counteroffensive in the south, which has struggled to gain momentum since being launched at the beginning of June.
Ukrainian officials have said little about what fresh units are being committed to the offensive, but the military has clearly added recently-minted units equipped with western armor in at least one important segment of the southern front.
The challenges faced by the Ukrainians are perhaps less to do with numbers and more to do with capabilities, training and coordination, factors that are critical when an attacking force is faced with such an array of defenses.
Fragments of geolocated video show that western armor such as Bradley fighting vehicles have been part of the renewed assault and that experienced units have been brought into the fray. But tight operational security on the part of the Ukrainians precludes a full assessment of what is being done to reboot the counteroffensive – and where.
There’s still debate about the size of the additional effort.
George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War – a Washington-based group – told CNN: “We had not seen any evidence of a battalion-level attack and certainly no brigade-level attacks. If the Ukrainians are indeed committing full battalions and brigades now as reported, that would mark a clear new phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.”
A Ukrainian brigade is roughly 3,000 troops.
For weeks Ukrainian forces have struggled to break through Russian lines because of layers of defenses: tank traps, other obstacles and dense minefields. According to some Ukrainian accounts, they have resorted to using small groups of military engineers working through forested areas to cut a path through or evade these minefields.
But navigating them will not break the back of Russian defenses. Satellite imagery shows multiple layers of Russian fortifications, sometimes 20 kilometers deep: breach one and another awaits.
Despite hurried training, some of it in western Europe, Ukrainian forces appear to be struggling to carry out combined arms operations: the use of multiple different assets to suppress and degrade Russian defenses both in the air and on the ground.
“Russian attack helicopters and fighter-bombers are exploiting weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defenses, enabling the Russians to strike Ukrainian ground forces. Conducting a mechanized penetration of this magnitude while the adversary has air superiority is extremely difficult,” says Barros at the ISW.
“Operations are more sequential than synchronized,” says analyst Franz-Stefan Gady after a visit to the front lines and extensive conversations with the Ukrainian military.
“Ukraine will have to better synchronize and adapt current tactics, without which western equipment will not prove tac[tically] decisive in the long run. This is happening but it is slow work in progress.”
Gady says that in addition, Ukrainian troops he spoke with “are all too aware that lack of progress is often more due to force employment, poor tactics, lack of coordination (between) units, bureaucratic red tape/infighting, Soviet style thinking etc.”
He says that makes the Ukrainians more vulnerable as they try to advance, and there is some evidence of that in the few videos that have emerged on social media.
“It’s not just about equipment. There’s simply no systematic pulling apart of the Russian defensive system that I could observe,” Gady tweeted. “Weakening Russian defenses to a degree that enables maneuver,” which will include the use of cluster munitions, is a critical task in the weeks ahead.
The commitment of new units this week does appear to have enabled the Ukrainians make modest advances south of the town of Orikhiv, edging closer to the important Russian hub of Tokmak some 20 kilometers to the south of the current frontline.
There are other modest successes further east, but the few frontline accounts to have emerged speak of unceasing Russian aviation and artillery strikes.
Kostyantyn Denysov, a member of the Freedom Legion, said the fighting was relentless.
“In a word, it’s hell,” he told RFE/Radio Liberty this week. “There are small arms battles along the entire contact line, counter-battery fighting.”
“Their helicopters are flying here in pairs and shelling our positions, Su-25 assault aircraft are working, dropping bombs on our guys’ heads. Many units have been brought here to try not only to stop our movement, but also to recapture lost positions in certain areas.”
The Ukrainian military’s critical need is to gain momentum – and force Russian commanders to make painful choices about where and how to deploy their units.
It is far too early to tell whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive has entered a more dynamic phase. The ISW cautions that “this kind of penetration battle will be one of the most difficult things for Ukrainian forces to accomplish.”
Nor can the Ukrainians focus their entire effort on the south. The Russians still hope to make tactical advances of their own in the north and eastern fronts, so the Ukrainians have to retain substantial and capable forces along the straggling northern front.
As former Australian general Mick Ryan writes: “General Gerasimov, who we assume retains overall command of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, is implementing a defensive strategy. But concurrently he is conducting offensive activities at the tactical and operation levels,” especially along the front that leads north from Kreminna to Kupyansk.
The Kremlin has seized upon the slow progress of the Ukrainian counter-offensive: a rare opportunity to go beyond damage limitation.
President Vladimir Putin said on July 21 that it was “clear today that the Western curators of the Kiev regime are certainly disappointed with the results of the counteroffensive that the current Ukrainian authorities announced in previous months.”
But this conflict has been a graveyard of premature declarations.
There are factors that may work in Ukraine’s favor.
George Barros at the ISW says the Ukrainians may be able to exploit geographical advantages.
“Russian defensive lines are not all contiguous or uniformly suited for strong defence. Some lines are bisected by water features or difficult terrain. Some lines are arrayed in such a manner that it could make a controlled withdrawal from one prepared defensive line to the other difficult.”
Pointing to successful Ukrainian attacks along the Mokri Yaly river, Barros says that “many such exploitable terrain intricacies exist along the southern frontline.”
Russian units are suffering battle fatigue, with insufficient rotation or relief even as reinforcements are brought forward. Elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army have been fighting in Zaporizhzhia non-stop for nearly two months.
Its commander, Major General Ivan Popov, was dismissed earlier this month for complaining to the Russian Defense Ministry about the situation.
Most observers say that in contrast, Ukrainian morale remains robust.
Even so, Gady contends that “Russian forces, even if severely degraded and lacking ammo, are likely capable of delaying, containing or repulsing individual platoon- or company-sized Ukrainian advances unless these attacks are better coordinated & synchronized along the broader frontline.”
Some Ukrainian officials have complained that allied expectations have been unreasonable given the depth of Russian defenses and Russian air superiority – and the speed with which they have had to stand up new brigades.
While grateful for Western equipment such as mine engineering vehicles and cluster munitions, they say much more is needed. F16s would neutralize Russia’s air superiority; longer-range artillery would accelerate the damage to the Russian military’s logistics.
Absent an unexpected collapse of Russian lines, Ukrainian gains “are likely to occur over a long period of time and interspersed with lulls and periods of slower and more grinding efforts as the Ukrainians come to successive Russian defensive lines and themselves require relief and rotation,” says the ISW.
Gady concurs. “I suspect this will remain a bloody attritional fight with reserve units being fed in incrementally in the coming weeks and months,” he tweeted.
If that is the case, and this conflict begins to resemble the static frontlines that began to solidify in Donbas in 2015-16, when Russian-backed forces captured Ukrainian territory, other questions arise.
Will western governments begin to exert pressure on Ukraine to seek a settlement? And given the losses suffered thus far, Russia’s ability to generate reinforcements and the uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election – will the Ukrainian government’s own calculations shift?
‘Victory Day’ parade in Pyongyang features Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missiles and attack drones.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has showcased nuclear-capable missiles and new attack drones with a large military parade in the capital Pyongyang.
Kim oversaw the parade to mark “Victory Day”, North Korea’s name for the end of hostilities in the 1950-53 Korean War, on Thursday night while accompanied by visiting delegations from China and Russia.
The parade featured North Korea’s Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missiles and a flyover by new attack and spy drones, the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Friday.
“Strategic unmanned reconnaissance aircraft and multipurpose attack drones newly developed and produced … flew in demonstrations while circling in the sky over [Kim Il Sung Square], doubling the joy of the people celebrating,” the KCNA said.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chinese ruling party official Li Hongzhong, the first foreign dignitaries to visit Pyongyang since the COVID-19 pandemic, watched the parade with Kim from a balcony overlooking the capital.
“China’s representation at North Korea’s parading of nuclear-capable missiles raises serious questions about Beijing enabling Pyongyang’s threats to global security,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul.
“Given Russia’s need for ammunition for its illegal war in Ukraine and Kim Jong Un’s willingness to personally give the Russian defence minister a tour of North Korea’s arms exhibition, UN member states should increase vigilance for observing and penalising sanctions violations.”
Kim’s latest showcase of military power comes at a time of elevated tensions on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea has carried out repeated weapons tests this year, including several launches of the Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile, which Pyongyang has described as its most powerful weapon yet.
Russia and China are among the few countries to maintain friendly relations with the North, which has been heavily sanctioned and censured over its development of nuclear weapons and missiles.
Moscow and Beijing have stymied United States-led efforts at the United Nations Security Council to ramp up sanctions targeting Pyongyang’s weapons programmes.
The North has backed Russia’s view of the war in Ukraine, blaming Western hegemony for forcing Moscow to take military action to protect its security.
US President Joe Biden’s administration has accused the Kim regime of providing weapons to Russian forces in Ukraine, which Pyongyang has denied.
The army said the decision was necessary to avoid fighting within the armed forces, it said.
Niger’s army has declared allegiance to the defense and security forces that overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum on Wednesday, according to a statement on Thursday signed by Abdou Sidikou Issa, the army chief of staff.
The statement, posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, said the decision was necessary to avoid fighting within the armed forces.
— Forces Armées Nigériennes (@ArmeesNiger) July 27, 2023
Members of the Presidential Guard had detained President Mohamed Bazoum inside his palace in the capital Niamey.
In a statement broadcast on national television, Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane, spokesperson for a group calling itself the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Country said “the defence and security forces … have decided to put an end to the regime you are familiar with”.
“This follows the continuous deterioration of the security situation, the bad social and economic management,” he added.
The soldier said the country’s borders were closed and a nationwide curfew was in place. All institutions of the country were also suspended, he added.
Abdramane was seated and flanked by nine other officers wearing fatigues as he read out his statement.
Wednesday’s incident has sparked global condemnation.
Vladimir Putin said he does not reject the idea of peace talks over Ukraine, but the Russian president added that there could be no cease-fire while Ukrainian forces are “on the offensive.”
Speaking after meeting with African leaders in St. Petersburg, Putin told a press conference that African and Chinese peace initiatives could serve as a basis for ending the war in Ukraine, but are “impossible to implement” at the moment.
“The Ukrainian army is on the offensive, they are attacking, they are implementing a large-scale strategic offensive operation,” Putin said, according to media reports. “We cannot cease fire when we are under attack,” he said.
“We did not reject them,” Putin said, referring to the peace initiatives. “In order for this process to begin, there needs to be agreement on both sides,” the Russian leader said of the possibility of peace talks.
African leaders meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg last week issued a direct appeal for Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, which Russia invaded in February 2022.
“This war must end. And it can only end on the basis of justice and reason,” Moussa Faki Mahamat, foreign minister of Chad and current African Union Commission chairman, told Putin at the Russia-Africa summit.
Congolese President Denis Sassou Nguesso said an African peace plan “deserves the closest attention.”
“It mustn’t be underestimated,” Nguesso said. “We once again urgently call for the restoration of peace in Europe.”
Senegal’s President Macky Sall also called for “a de-escalation to help create calm,” while South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said he hoped that “constructive engagement and negotiation” could end the conflict.
Several drones attacked the center of Moscow in the early hours of Sunday morning, in the latest assault on Russian territory that the city’s mayor blamed on Kyiv.
The drones hit two high-rise buildings in an area called Moscow City, a posh business district in the center of the Russian capital, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a Telegram statement on Sunday.
“Ukrainian drones attacked tonight. The facades of two city office towers were slightly damaged. There are no victims or injured,” Sobyanin said.
Russian media reported that a 50-story building in Moscow City was evacuated. And Russian social media users posted videos of blasts.
Russian media channel Astra reported that one of the drones damaged the 10th floor of an office building in Moscow City, where at least three Russian ministries have their offices — the Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Trade and Ministry of Digital Development.
Ukraine did not officially take responsibility for the attack. “We can neither confirm nor deny,” Andriy Yusov, representative of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence, told POLITICO. Ukrainian officials almost never admit responsibility for military operations in Russian territory.
The Russian Defense Ministry said a third drone was shot down in the Moscow region.
The attack on Moscow happened the night after Ukrainian Armed Forces hit a key bridge in Chonhar. The Friday night bombing severely damaged one of the strategic supply routes for the Russian army occupying the south of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Strategic Communications Center said in a statement on Saturday.
Vladimir Saldo, a Russian-installed official in the occupied part of the Kherson region, had said earlier Saturday that Ukrainian forces launched 12 Storm Shadow missiles at the bridge in Chonhar. He said that all missiles were shot down by Russian air defense, providing no evidence for his claim.
This is not the first attack on the Chonhar bridge. On June 22, Ukrainians attacked the bridge with a Storm Shadow missile, Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov, chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said in a July 5 interview with the Ukrainian state news agency Ukrinform.
The attack on the Chonhar bridge came the day after a missile damaged the city center of Taganrog in the Rostov region of Russia. Vasily Golubev, the governor of the Rostov region, said a missile fell near Chekhov Sad cafe in the city center. Sixteen people were wounded, but no one died, he said in a statement.
Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the Taganrog attack. The Russian Defense Ministry accused Kyiv of using a Soviet-made S200 missile to attack Taganrog. It said air defense shot down the weapon but falling debris caused damage and injuries.
Russian independent media Istories reported that a missile hit 10 kilometers away from Russian strategic bombers at an airfield used to bomb Ukraine.
PARIS — An ongoing military coup in Niger is threatening to destabilize one of the last Western allies in Africa’s Sahel region.
On Wednesday night, Niger’s top military brass announced on national television they had overthrown the country’s president Mohamed Bazoum, who was democratically elected in 2021.
“We, the Defense and Security Forces, united within the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, have decided to put an end to the regime you know,” Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane said, according to Agence France-Presse. “This follows the continuing deterioration of the security situation, and poor economic and social governance,” he added.
A change of regime in Niger could be a blow to the West — and more specifically to France and the United States, who have strong ties to the West African nation.
For both Paris and Washington, Niger is a strategic country in the fight against Islamist terrorism. Viewed as “one of the most reliable U.S. allies” against al Qaeda, Islamic State and Boko Haram, it’s also one of the last Sahel nations that hasn’t deepened cooperation with Russia to the West’s detriment.
According to Le Monde, there are no obvious signs of Moscow’s footprint in the Niger coup, which is mostly driven by internal matters.
However the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary outfit led by Yevgeny Prigozhin that is active in Africa, claimed credit for the coup Thursday.
“What happened is the struggle of the people of Niger against the colonialists,” Prigozhin said in a voice message posted in a Wagner-branded Telegram channel. “This is actually gaining independence and getting rid of the colonialists.” ㅤ “This shows the effectiveness of Wagner,” Prigozhin continued. “A thousand Wagner fighters are able to restore order and destroy terrorists, preventing them from harming the civilian population of states.”
The same channel also posted a photo of Prigozhin shaking hands with an unidentified man on the sidelines of a Russia-Africa summit being hosted in St Petersburg by President Vladimir Putin. The posts appeared intended as a demonstration of strength by Prigozhin, who led a mutiny last month in which his troops marched to within 200 km of Moscow before standing down.
For France, Bazoum’s forced departure would mark yet another setback in the region, only months after French troops had to withdraw from neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, effectively ending the Barkhane operation.
Paris, whose influence in West Africa has been significantly waning in recent years, has reportedly deployed about 1,500 French soldiers in Niger. The government in Niger has expressed satisfaction at the bilateral military agreement. The country was supposed to be a “laboratory” for a new type of military relationship based on equal-footing cooperation between France — a former colonial power — and African governments.
The French foreign affairs ministry issued a statement overnight expressing “concerns” about the events, adding it “firmly condemns any attempt to seize power by force.” The ministry also released a warning message for French citizens living in Niger, urging them to limit movements and follow safety instructions.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Bazoum overnight and expressed the U.S.’s “unwavering” support. “The strong U.S. economic and security partnership with Niger depends on the continuation of democratic governance and respect for the rule of law and human rights,” according to a statement.
For France, the coup’s timing is challenging, as French President Emmanuel Macron is on a five-day visit to the Indo-Pacific region with his Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu and most of his staff. Blinken is currently also in the region.
Douglas Busvine contributed to this report. This story has been updated with comments by Prigozhin.
Russia will not rejoin a U.N.-brokered pact designed to prevent famines across the developing world as a result of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday.
Speaking at the Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum in St. Petersburg, Putin again said his government would “refuse to extend” the Black Sea grain deal, which has allowed 32.9 million tons of agricultural products to leave Ukraine’s blockaded ports and reach the global market.
Putin, who accused Western nations of receiving the bulk of the deliveries and refusing to lift sanctions on Russia, insisted Moscow would instead move toward “a more just system of resource distribution.”
“In the coming three or four months we would be ready to provide to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic and Eritrea up to 50,000 tons of grain each. We will ensure free shipping of these cargo,” he went on.
Investigations have shown Russia has systematically stolen Ukrainian grain during its occupation of the south of the country and, following Moscow’s withdrawal from the deal, the country’s forces launched strikes against agricultural stores. Kyiv says as much as 60,000 tons of grain were destroyed.
The African Union earlier Thursday urged Moscow to reinstate the Black Sea grain deal, designed to ensure Ukrainian and Russian agricultural products can reach the global market, despite the raging war affecting Black Sea shipping routes, and avoid shortages.
“The problem of grains and fertilizers concerns everyone,” Comoros President Azali Assoumani, who heads the 55-member African Union, told Russian state media. “We will talk about this in St. Petersburg, we will discuss it with Putin to see how we can restart this agreement.”
Putin last week announced his country would unilaterally pull out of the arrangement and, shortly afterward, his forces launched strikes against Ukraine’s export infrastructure.
Analysts have previously warned that a continued refusal to renew the deal could mean African nations are dependent on one-off deals with Moscow to secure supplies, with price volatility and insecurity of supply as a result.
Billed as an effort to foster closer relations between Russia and the Global South, the summit has been overshadowed by strict security and COVID-19 testing requirements, and the Kremlin has complained that “pressure” from the the U.S. and EU countries has meant only 17 heads of state out of a total of more than 50 African countries confirmed they would attend.
British authorities have launched an investigation after officials mistakenly sent emails meant for U.S. military intelligence to the government in Mali, a Russian ally.
Officials from the U.K. Ministry of Defense were supposed to be sending emails to the Pentagon, but accidentally sent them to Mali’s government instead, the Times reported Thursday. The mistake was the result of a typo, as the Pentagon’s domain name is “.mil,” while Mali’s is “.ml.”
The Ministry of Defense said Friday they were investigating the incident.
“We have opened an investigation after a small number of emails were mistakenly forwarded to an incorrect email domain,” a spokesperson for the ministry said, Reuters reported.
According to the Times, while most emails sent to Mali were innocuous — containing information such as dates when the employees from the foreign ministry were on holiday — others contained “detailed descriptions” of British research into hypersonic missiles.
However, the Ministry of Defense said the Times’ claims were misleading.
“This report misleadingly claims state secrets were sent to Mali’s email domain. We assess fewer than 20 routine emails were sent to an incorrect domain & are confident there was no breach of operational security or disclosure of technical data,” the ministry said Friday. “An investigation is ongoing. Emails of this kind are not classified at secret or above.”
According to Reuters, the spokesperson said all sensitive information is shared “on systems designed to minimize the risk of misdirection.”
“The MOD constantly reviews its processes and is currently undertaking a program of work to improve information management, data loss prevention, and the control of sensitive information,” they said.
Earlier this month, an investigation by the Financial Times found that millions of emails meant for the Pentagon have been sent to Mali as a result of the same typo. Some of these emails included sensitive information, such as diplomatic documents, tax returns, passwords and officers’ travel details, the investigation found
Men in military fatigues claimed to have taken power in Niger hours after President Mohamed Bazoum was reportedly seized by members of the presidential guard on Wednesday, sparking international condemnation and renewed uncertainty in a volatile part of Africa beset by coups and militant extremism.
In a video communique, a man identified as Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane and flanked by several apparent soldiers, announced, “We have decided to put an end to the regime that you know,” citing a deteriorating security situation in the country and “poor economic and social governance.”
National institutions have been suspended and the country’s land borders are temporarily closed, he also said, appearing to read from a text on the table before him.
Niger has a long history of military coups since its independence from France in 1960 however in recent years it had been less political unstable. When Bazoum came to office in 2021, it was the country’s first democratic transfer of power.
Much of Africa’s Sahel region has found itself confronting Islamist insurgencies, including Niger which has received support from the United States and France in tackling extremists.
But the region has also seen multiple coups in recent years, including in Niger’s neighbors Mali and Burkina Faso.
While events inside Niger remained murky, including the precise whereabouts of Bazoum, international criticism of the attempted coup grew overnight.
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he “strongly condemns… the unconstitutional change of government in Niger” and called for “an immediate end to all actions undermining democratic principles in Niger.”
Guterres was “deeply disturbed by the detention of President Mohamed Bazoum and is concerned for his safety and well-being,” he said in a statement.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) said that there had been an “attempt to seize power by force” in the West African country.
“ECOWAS condemns in the strongest terms the attempt to seize power by force and calls on the coup plotters to free the democratically-elected President of the Republic immediately and without any condition,” the bloc added.
White House officials said they “strongly condemn any effort to detain or subvert the functioning of Niger’s democratically elected government.”
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the partnership between Washington and the West African country is contingent on its “continued commitment to democratic standards.”
France also described the unfolding events as an attempted power grab.
“(France) strongly condemns any attempt to seize power by force and joins the calls of the African Union and ECOWAS to restore the integrity of Nigerien democratic institutions,” Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said on X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday.
Cameron Hudson, a senior associate at the Center for the Strategic and International Studies, said there had been indications that Niger’s military leadership were not pleased with the level of support they were given to fight militants and that a coup could impact that campaign.
“It’s a very fragile state and a very fluid situation right now and until we hear more from the coup plotters themselves it’s hard to know exactly what their motivations are right now,” he told CNN.
“If the military is more concerned with domestic politics, then there is a risk that they are no longer going to be fighting the fight against these terrorist groups that are now encroaching on Niger and on the capital,” he added.
Niger, he said, is “one of the poorest countries in the world with one of the highest birth rates”.
“It has endemic problems, poverty, and terrorism, so there are many factors contributing to instability in the country,” he added.
In 2017, four US special forces soldiers were killed in an ambush by more than 100 ISIS fighters in Niger.
Wednesday’s fast moving events in Niger prompted intense discussions between the country’s Presidential Guard and government authorities, a source close to the president told CNN. The source did not reveal what exactly was being discussed.
Niger’s presidential complex was sealed off Wednesday, with heavily armed members of the Presidential Guard assembling outside the Presidential Palace early that morning. Roughly twenty members of the Presidential Guard could be seen outside the palace complex later in the day.
A statement on the presidency’s social media channels said President Mohamed Bazoum is “doing well” and the army and national guard were “ready to attack the elements of the GP [Presidential Guard] involved in this fit of anger if they do not return to their better senses.” CNN cannot verify the statement.
The country’s interior minister, Hamadou Souley, was also arrested by the presidential guard on Wednesday morning local time and is being held in the presidential palace in the capital Niamey along with Bazoum.
Hundreds of protesters later gathered in the capital Niamey in support of Bazoum. Presidential guards to fired “warning shots” to block their advance when protesters were about 300 meters (984 feet) from the presidential palace, but CNN saw no injuries.
Up to 400 protesters were seen later on Wednesday, some holding photos of Bazoum and signs saying: “No to the destabilization of the republic’s institutions.”
Niger’s presidential office said in a tweet on Wednesday that “spontaneous protests by democracy advocates broke out all over the (capital) city of Niamey, (around) the country and in front of Niger’s embassies abroad after the announcement this morning that President (Mohamed) Bazoum is being held in his palace by his guard.”
The presidential guards are holding Bazoum inside the palace, which has been blocked off by military vehicles since Wednesday morning, Reuters and the Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported Wednesday. Reuters cited security sources and AFP referenced sources close to Bazoum.
CNN has so far been unable to reach the country’s Ministry of Defence and Interior Ministry for comment.
A member of the National Guard guarding the building for both ministries told CNN that there are currently no officials inside.
The US Embassy in Niger said it had received reports of political instability within the capital Niamey.
“At this time the city is calm. We advise everyone to limit unnecessary movements, and avoid all travel along Rue de la Republique until further notice,” the embassy said.
Agency footage from the capital Niamey shows the rest of the cityappearing calm.
Nigerian president Bola Tinubu – the current chair of ECOWAS – issued a statement condemning “unpleasant developments” in Niger.
Tinubu said they were “closely monitoring the situation and developments.”
“It should be quite clear to all players in the Republic of Niger that the leadership of the ECOWAS Region and all lovers of democracy around the world will not tolerate any situation that incapacitates the democratically-elected government of the country.
“The ECOWAS leadership will not accept any action that impedes the smooth functioning of legitimate authority in Niger or any part of West Africa,” the statement said.
Delegations from Russia and China, North Korea’s key allies in the Korean War, gathered in Pyongyang this week to celebrate North Korea’s “Victory Day” in the war that ravaged the Korean Peninsula seven decades ago as they alignover another very contemporary conflict – Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un gave Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu – an architect of Moscow’s assault on Ukraine – a tour of a defense exposition in Pyongyang on Wednesday, with images from North Korean media showing them walking past an array of weaponry, from Pyongyang’s nuclear-capable ballistic missiles to its newest drones.
At a state reception for Shoigu and the Russian delegation, in a reference to the war in Ukraine, North Korean Defense Minister Kang Sun Nam expressed Pyongyang’s full support “for the just struggle of the Russian army and people to defend the sovereignty and security of the country,” according to a report from the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
In remarks of his own, Shoigu then said the Korean People’s Army (KPA) has “become the strongest army in the world” and pledged continued cooperation to keep it that way.
Also Wednesday, at a reception for the Chinese delegation led by Politburo member Li Hongzhong, senior North Korean official Kim Song Nam thanked Chinese forces for joining in the Korean War, saying North Korea “would not forget forever the heroic feats and merits of the bravery soldiers who recorded a brilliant page in the history.”
Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said the presence of the Chinese and Russian delegations at the armistice anniversary “underscores the importance Pyongyang attaches to its relationships with both countries.”
“Shoigu’s presence is particularly notable: a sign of just how close Pyongyang and Moscow have become since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year,” Panda said.
Thursday is the 70th anniversary of the end of the 1950-1953 Korean War, one of the first international conflicts of the Cold War era.
In the fall of 1950, China sent a quarter million troops into the Korean Peninsula, supporting its North Korean ally and pushing back the combined forces of South Korea, the United States and other countries under the United Nations Command.
More than 180,000 Chinese troops died in the Korean War, or what Beijing calls the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea.
Russia’s predecessor, the Soviet Union, also supported North Korea during the war, with combat support like Soviet aircraft engaging US jets and with supplies of heavy weaponry like tanks.
Despite Pyongyang’s claims of a victory, the war it launched in 1950 ended in a stalemate, with the current demilitarized zone along the 38th parallel in much the same location as it was before the war.
The Korean War armistice was signed on July 27, 1953, ending hostilities although a true peace deal has never been signed.
After the war, the US, which anchored the UN Command that supported South Korea, kept a large contingent of troops in the South at a range of Army and air bases. The US’ Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, south of Seoul, is the largest overseas US military base.
Meanwhile, Moscow over the decades has been a staunch ally for North Korea, especially as the two share a joint animosity toward the West. The same can be said for the Chinese Communist Party, especially under China’s current leader Xi Jinping.
Panda noted how both Moscow and Beijing, permanent members of the UN Security Council, have defended Pyongyang’s interests before the world body as Western powers led by the US have tried to put further sanctions on North Korea.
Now the three authoritarian nuclear powers are putting up a united front over Ukraine, a former Soviet state which Russia invaded in February 2022 after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared it was historically Russian territory.
That invasion soon stumbled as Ukrainians put up a fierce defense of their homeland and as Western powers scrambled to send weapons and ammunition to Kyiv while Moscow burned through its own stocks and looked to allies like Iran and North Korea to resupply.
And while China has not supplied Russia with weaponry, it has remained steadfastly in Moscow’s corner as the war in Ukraine drags into its 18th month,with Xi deepening his relationship with Putin and echoing the Kremlin’s rhetoric over the conflict.
After the brief mutiny in Russia by the Wagner mercenary group last month, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed support for the Putin regime.
“As Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity,” an online statement said.
Meanwhile, the Russian and Chinese militaries have been active in the waters off the Korean Peninsula, with their latest joint exercise, Northern/Interaction-2023, bringing together naval and air forces from both countries in drills aiming to “strengthen both sides’ capabilities of jointly safeguarding regional peace and stability and responding to various security challenges,” according to the People’s Liberation Army’s English website.
Those exercises in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan occurred as South Korea and the US were conducting military displays of their own, including a US Navy nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine making a port call in South Korea for the first time in four decades.
Pyongyang’s armistice commemorations were expected to continue Thursday with a military parade in the capital. North Korea typically marks key moments in its history with displays of its newest weaponry.
One such weapon that may be on display is the Hwasong-18 ICBM, a solid-fueled, nuclear-capable missile that North Korea claims could hit anywhere in the United States. It has tested that missile twice this year, most recently earlier this month.
The pictures posted on the Chinese company’s website show a tall, Caucasian man with a crew cut and flattened nose inspecting body armor at its factory.
“This spring, one of our customers came to our company to confirm the style and quantity of bulletproof vests, and carefully tested the quality of our vests,” Shanghai H Win, a manufacturer of military-grade protective gear, proudly reported on its website in March. The customer “immediately directly confirmed the order quantity of bulletproof vests and subsequent purchase intention.”
The identity of the smiling customer isn’t clear, but there’s a fair chance he was Russian: According to customs records obtained by POLITICO, Russian buyers have declared orders for hundreds of thousands of bulletproof vests and helmets made by Shanghai H Win — the items listed in the documents match those in the company’s online catalog.
Evidence of this kind shows that China, despite Beijing’s calls for peace, is pushing right up to a red line in delivering enough nonlethal, but militarily useful, equipment to Russia to have a material impact on President Vladimir Putin’s 17-month-old war on Ukraine. The protective gear would be sufficient to equip many of the men mobilized by Russia since the invasion. Then there are drones that can be used to direct artillery fire or drop grenades, and thermal optical sights to target the enemy at night.
These shipments point to a China-sized loophole in the West’s attempts to hobble Putin’s war machine. The sale of so-called dual-use technology that can have both civilian and military uses leaves just enough deniability for Western authorities looking for reasons not to confront a huge economic power like Beijing.
The wartime strength of China’s exports of dual-use products to Russia is confirmed by customs data. And, while Ukraine is a customer of China too, its imports of most of the equipment covered in this story have fallen sharply, the figures show.
Russia has imported more than $100 million-worth of drones from China so far this year — 30 times more than Ukraine. And Chinese exports of ceramics, a component used in body armor, increased by 69 percent to Russia to more than $225 million, while dropping by 61 percent to Ukraine to a mere $5 million, Chinese and Ukrainian customs data show.
“What is very clear is that China, for all its claims that it is a neutral actor, is in fact supporting Russia’s positions in this war,” said Helena Legarda, a lead analyst specializing in Chinese defense and foreign policy at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a Berlin think tank.
Were China to cross the red line and sell weapons or military equipment to Russia, Legarda said she would expect the EU to enforce secondary sanctions targeting enablers of Putin’s war of aggression.
But, she added, equipment like body armor, thermal imaging, and even commercial drones that can be used in offensive frontline operations are unlikely to trigger a response.
“Then there’s this situation that we’re in at the moment — all these dual-use components or equipment and how you handle those,” Legarda explained. “I would not expect the EU to be able to agree to sanctions on that.”
Disappearing customer
Shanghai H Win, like other Chinese companies producing dual-use equipment, has enjoyed a surge in business since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
According to customs records obtained by POLITICO, Russia has ordered hundreds of thousands of bulletproof vests and helmets made by Shanghai H Win | Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images
“Because of the war, a lot of trading companies are looking for us and ask: ‘Are you making this kind of vest?’ We received a lot of inquiries,” a sales representative told POLITICO over the phone.
At first, the representative said Shanghai H Win wasn’t allowed to export directly to Russia unless the Chinese military issues a certificate and it can provide documentary proof of its final customer.
Yet when asked who the man in the pictures was, and where he was from, the representative denied that he was even a customer — even though the website said so.
“He is our customer’s customer. We cannot ask him directly, ‘Where are you from?’ But I guess maybe he is from Europe — maybe Ukraine, maybe Poland, even maybe from Russia. I’m not sure.”
Shortly after the call, Shanghai H Win took down the post featuring the mystery shopper from its website.
Who are the buyers?
So, who exactly are those customers? Evidence of deals — importers, suppliers, and product descriptions — can be found in a registry of declarations of conformity by anyone with access to the Russian internet who is familiar with international customs classifications.
In an earlier story, POLITICO searched these filings and found evidence that sniper bullets made in the United States were reaching Russia, where they were freely available on the black market.
The declarations enable the final buyer to certify that the products are genuine and, in effect, make it possible to import goods without the express consent of the maker. If goods are traded through an intermediary, the maker may not even be aware that its goods are going to Russia. The registry is, however, searchable so it’s still easy to find the ultimate buyers of the Chinese kit.
One is Silva, a company headquartered in the remote Eastern Siberian region of Buryatia. It filed declarations in January of this year detailing orders for 100,000 bulletproof vests and 100,000 helmets. The manufacturer? Shanghai H Win.
Such importers often bear the hallmarks of “one-day” firms, as shell companies are known in Russia, set up by actors who want to conceal their dealings. They tend to be new, listed at obscure residential addresses, and have few staff or assets. Their financial statements often don’t report the levels of turnover that the filings would imply.
According to public records, Silva was registered only last September. It reported zero revenues for 2022. A Google Street View search of its address in Ulan-Ude, the capital of Buryatia, takes visitors to a dilapidated apartment block.
POLITICO tried to contact Silva but the phone number given on its filings rang off the hook and a message sent to its email address bounced.
The sale of so-called dual-use technology that can have both civilian and military uses leaves enough deniability for Western authorities looking for reasons not to confront China | STR/AFP via Getty Images
Another Russian company called Rika declared a smaller shipment of body armor from Shanghai H Win in March. Before that, in January, Rika declared a consignment of helmets from a company called Deekon Shanghai, which shares an address with Shanghai H Win. The two companies are affiliated, another Shanghai H Win representative said.
A woman who answered the phone at Rika said: “We buy in Russia, not in China.” The company didn’t reply to a follow-up email from POLITICO.
The denial is hardly plausible: In addition to the protective gear, a search of declarations by Rika threw up hits for deals for thermal optical equipment from China. That was corroborated by customs data accessed by POLITICO, which revealed more than 220 shipments, worth $11 million, for thermal optics and protective equipment since the outbreak of the war. Rika advertises Chinese-made night sights right at the top of its website.
Another Russian company called Legittelekom, whose homepage reveals it to be a Moscow freight forwarding company, also appears as a buyer of 100,000 items of headgear and 100,000 suits of outerwear from Deekon Shanghai, according to filings dated last November 24.
A man who answered a call to Legittelekom declined to comment on POLITICO’s findings and would not say whether the company supplied the Russian military.
“This is a commercial activity and we do not disclose our commercial activities,” the man said in response to both questions.
Bigger deal
Then there’s Pozitron, a company based in Rostov-on-Don, the southern city briefly captured by warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries in their failed uprising last month. It imported more than $60 million-worth of “airsoft helmets,” “miscellaneous ceramics,” and other items from Chinese firm Beijing KRNatural in November and December 2022, according to customs data shared by ImportGenius.
These flows check out with Pozitron’s own declarations of conformity between late October and December 2022, for a total of 100,000 helmets. The declarations also reveal that Pozitron acquired a range of drones from Chinese multinational SZ DJI Technology Co., Ltd last December.
Although the quantity is unclear, the models specified include ones known to have been used in the Ukrainian theater of war, like DJI’s Mavic 2 Enterprise Advanced quadcopter or the Mini 2 lightweight drone.
At first sight, the product descriptions in the declarations and customs records appear harmless enough — the “airsoft helmets,” for example, are said to be for use in paintball games and “not for military use, not for dual use.”
Sanctions and defense experts say, however, that it’s common practice to mislabel dual-use goods as being for civilian purposes when they’re in fact destined for the battlefield.
At any rate, Pozitron, which was only founded in March 2021, is having a very good war: Its revenues exploded from 31 million rubles — around $400,000 — in 2021 to 20 billion rubles — almost $300 million — in 2022, according to its financial statement.
Reached by email, Pozitron’s general director, Andrey Vitkovsky, said that his company has “never imported drones and similar products” from the People’s Republic of China.
“The main activity of Pozitron LLC is the purchase and sale of consumer goods, sporting goods, and fabrics, both produced in the Russian Federation and imported from China,” Vitkovsky added, saying that his company’s activities were “exclusively peaceful in nature, in compliance with all rules and restrictions.”
The denial is typical — Russian companies have good reason to fear Western sanctions if they are implicated in trade that supports the Kremlin’s war effort. After POLITICO reported in March that a company called Tekhkrim was importing Chinese assault weapons, and declaring them as “hunting rifles,” the firm was sanctioned by the United States.
Pozitron is on the West’s radar, said one sanctions expert, who was granted anonymity as they are not authorized to speak publicly.
As for Beijing KRNatural, POLITICO was able to trace a company with a similar name at the address given in the Pozitron filings. The company, Beijing Natural Hanhua International Trade Co., Ltd, is listed as a “small and micro enterprise.” It was founded in April 2022, a few months before the Pozitron deals. Nobody answered when POLITICO called.
Heavenly mechanics
In contrast to the bulk consignments of protective gear that appear intended to equip a large fighting force, the orders for drones found by POLITICO are more dispersed among different buyers — both companies and individuals.
In addition to Pozitron, buyers of drones from DJI and its subsidiaries include firms called Gigantshina and Vozdukh — neither of which responded to emailed requests for comment. Another is Nebesnaya Mekhanika (“Heavenly Mechanics”), which before the war was the Chinese company’s official distributor in Russia.
A DJI spokesperson said that the company and its subsidiaries had voluntarily stopped all shipments to, and operations in, Russia and Ukraine on April 26, 2022 — two months after the war broke out.
“We stand alone as the only drone company to clearly denounce and actively discourage use of products in combat,” the spokesperson said in comments emailed to POLITICO.
DJI said it had also broken off its relationship with Nebesnaya Mekhanika, although the Russian company filed further declarations for shipments of the Chinese company’s drones last September 15 and on March 27 of this year.
The spokesperson said that DJI was not in any way involved in the drafting of the declarations of conformity found by POLITICO: “These documents would have been filled out by Russian parties, and they do not indicate in any shape or form who ex- or imported the products that are being declared conform.”
“We have seen media reports and other documents that appear to show how our products are being transported to Russia and Ukraine from other countries where they can be bought off-the-shelf,” the spokesperson added. “However, it is not in our power to influence how our products are being used once they leave our control.”
Still, a search of ImportGenius shows that a Chinese company called Iflight has continued to ship DJI drones to Nebesnaya Mechnika via Hong Kong, care of a local company called Lotos. The most recent consignment was delivered last October 10. In an apparent anomaly, Russia is stated as the country of origin for the shipments.
Nebesnaya Mekhanika, which still advertises DJI drones on its website, did not respond to a request for comment.
Political will
The trafficking of low-tech body armor to high-tech drones and thermal optics highlights a vulnerability in the Western sanctions regime. The ambiguity surrounding the dual-use status of this equipment, coupled with the fact that a significant portion of it is manufactured in China, seems, at least for now, to have placed the possibility of the West taking meaningful action beyond reach.
Then there is the flow of technology through China that may include components made in the West that could be of direct military use.
Russia is fully aware of the China loophole and is using it to buy Western technology to fight its war against Ukraine, according to a recent analysis by the KSE Institute, a think tank affiliated to the Kyiv School of Economics. More than 60 percent of imported critical components in Russian weapons found on the battlefield came from U.S. companies, the researchers found.
It’s an issue that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought up on a visit to Beijing last month — the first by Washington’s top diplomat in five years. He told reporters that China had given assurances that “it is not and will not provide lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine.” Blinken, however, expressed “ongoing concerns” that Chinese firms may be providing technology that Russia can use to advance its aggression in Ukraine. “And we have asked the Chinese government to be very vigilant about that.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that China had given assurances that “it is not and will not provide lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine” during a visit to Beijing last month | Pool photo by Leah Millis/AFP via Getty Images
France is also concerned that China is delivering dual-use equipment to Russia. “There are indications that they are doing things we would prefer them not to do,” Emmanuel Bonne, President Emmanuel Macron’s top diplomatic adviser, told the recent Aspen Security Forum. Pressed on whether China was supplying weapons, Bonne said: “Well, kind of military equipment … as far as we know they are not delivering massively military capacities to Russia but (we need there to be) no delivery.”
Yet there’s little the West can do to twist Beijing’s arm into halting flows of dual-use products into Russia. Only the United States would have the real power to impose an outright ban on dollar-denominated transactions — as Washington did when it sanctioned Iran over its secret nuclear program.
The EU, however, lacks such a strong sanctions weapon because the euro is far less ubiquitous on global markets. It’s also been hesitant to act. In its latest package of Russia sanctions last month, the EU compiled a list of seven Chinese companies that shouldn’t be allowed to trade with the bloc. But, after lobbying by Beijing, Brussels dropped four companies from the blacklist.
Elina Ribakova, one of the authors of the KSE Institute report, said indirect shipments via China pose challenges in terms of both the scope and enforcement of Western sanctions. Secondary sanctions may not be sufficient, she said. She called for manufacturers to be forced to take responsibility for where their products end up — just as banks were required by regulators to step up customer oversight and anti-money laundering operations in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
“What we can do differently is to create the same infrastructure for the corporates,” explained Ribakova, who is director of the international program at the Kyiv School of Economics. “We have to threaten them with serious fines.”
Maxim Mironov, a sanctions expert and assistant professor of finance at the IE Business School in Madrid, reckons that the West, despite expanding sanctions to punish Putin’s helpers, lacks the political conviction to enforce them against Beijing.
“Do politicians have enough will to put sanctions on China? Basically, the answer is no,” said Mironov.
“China signals: You can try, but I don’t care what you are trying to do,” Mironov added. “And the European Union is like: If you don’t like it, we are not going to do it. And if the Chinese see that, they are just going to continue doing what they think is in their best interest.”
The European Commission, the U.S. National Security Council and the Chinese Mission to the EU did not respond to requests for comment.
Stuart Lau contributed reporting.
[ad_2]
Sarah Anne Aarup, Sergey Panov and Douglas Busvine
