Southeast Asian foreign ministers have called for a “Myanmar-owned and led solution” to the crisis in Myanmar that began when the military seized power in a coup three years ago, and has left thousands dead.
The call from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) followed a meeting on Monday of the 10-member grouping’s foreign ministers in Laos, which was attended by an official from Myanmar for the first time in two years.
The ministers also gave their backing to efforts by Alounkeo Kittikhoun, Laos’s special envoy on the crisis, in “reaching out to parties concerned”.
Myanmar was plunged into crisis when the generals removed the elected government of civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi on February 1, 2021, and seized power, responding with brutal force to mass protests against its rule and sparking an armed uprising.
More than 4,400 civilians have been killed since and the military is holding nearly 20,000 people in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a local monitoring group.
ASEAN, which Myanmar joined in 1997, has been leading international diplomatic efforts on Myanmar but has made little progress since unveiling the so-called five-point consensus to end the crisis at a summit attended by coup leader Min Aung Hlaing shortly after the power grab.
The generals have ignored the plan and have been banned from attending ASEAN’s summits and ministerial meetings.
Laos, a one-party communist state on Myanmar’s northeastern border, is chairing ASEAN this year.
Kittikhoun travelled to Myanmar earlier this month where he met Min Aung Hlaing and the two discussed “efforts of the government to ensure peace and stability”, according to Myanmar’s state media. Neither ASEAN nor Laos have commented on the trip and it is unclear whether he met any anti-coup groups.
The conflict has deepened since an alliance of anti-coup forces and ethnic armed groups began a major offensive towards the end of last year in northern Shan State and western Rakhine.
The alliance claims to have overrun dozens of military outposts and taken control of key towns.
More than 2.6 million people have been forced from their homes over three years of fighting.
The military government has shown no willingness to open talks with its opponents and describes them as “terrorists”. It has also accused ASEAN of interfering in its internal affairs.
Laos stresses engagement
The ASEAN statement did not elaborate on whether the “Myanmar-owned and led solution” would involve discussions with the National Unity Government, the administration established by elected politicians who were removed in the coup as well as supporters of democracy in the wake of the power grab.
The military sent Marlar Than Htike, the ASEAN’s permanent secretary at the Foreign Ministry, to the meeting in Laos, accepting for the first time ASEAN’s invitation for it to send a “non-political” representative to meetings.
Laos’s Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith welcomed Myanmar’s attendance.
“This time we feel a little bit optimistic that the engagement may work, although we have to admit that the issues that are happening in Myanmar will not resolve overnight,” he said.
“We are sure that the more we engage Myanmar, the more understanding … about the real situation that is happening in Myanmar.”
The crisis has caused friction within ASEAN with some members pushing for a firmer line with the military and engagement with the NUG.
A spokesman from Indonesia, which chaired the grouping last year, insisted Monday’s attendance was not a sign that policy had changed.
“It is true that a Myanmar representative was present at the ASEAN FM meeting in Luang Prabang. The attendance was not by a minister-level or political representative. So, it is still in line with the 2022 agreement of the ASEAN leaders,” Lalu Muhamad Iqbal told the AFP news agency.
Laos’s Foreign Minister Kommasith told reporters that Thailand would provide more humanitarian assistance to Myanmar.
“We think humanitarian assistance is the priority for the immediate period of time when implementing the five-point consensus,” he said, referring to the April 2021 consensus.
The plan calls for the immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar, a dialogue among all concerned parties, mediation by an ASEAN special envoy, provision of humanitarian aid through ASEAN channels and a visit to Myanmar by the special envoy to meet all concerned parties.
Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos have a combined population of nearly 650 million people and a total gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $3 trillion.
Laos is the group’s poorest nation and one of its smallest.
It has close ties to China with which it also shares a border.
While the scale and target of Biden’s promised response is not yet clear, any unilateral move is likely to draw blowback from key allies in the Middle East who worry about sparking a regional war.
Turkey, a key NATO ally, has denounced Israel’s campaign in Gaza, while President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has accused the U.K. and the U.S. of trying to turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood.”
“Turkey does not want to be drawn into this conflict because it shares a border with Iran,” said Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the European Institute of the London School of Economics. “If the U.S. as its main ally in NATO gets involved in this military conflict directly then Turkey has to choose a side, and that will mean it’s harder to maintain a balanced approach — like it has done with the war in Ukraine.”
The challenge for Biden is how to retaliate without risking escalation by Iran and its partners in the region. Conversely, doing nothing — especially after having said he would avenge the deaths of the three U.S. soldiers — would leave him vulnerable to a charge of weakness from Trump.
“Iran’s leadership probably calculates that the United States will be reticent to fulsomely respond in any manner that would risk escalation of tensions in the Middle East and spark the region-wide [conflict] the Biden administration has admirably tried to prevent the past three months,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. deputy national intelligence officer.
But the U.S. may have “to undertake a more fulsome response to restore deterrence,” he added.
Jamie Dettmer, Jeremy Van der Haegen and Laura Kayali contributed reporting.
Second test of weapon in days as North Korea accelerates efforts to modernise its navy.
North Korean state media say the country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, oversaw the launch of two submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCM), the second test of the weapon within days.
The newly-developed Pulhwasal-3-31 missiles “flew in the sky above the East Sea … to hit the island target”, the KCNA news agency reported on Monday, adding that Kim “guided” the launch.
It shared photos of Kim at an undisclosed location pointing at a missile in the sky and laughing with members of the military. In other images, huge clouds of white smoke obscured the actual launch platform.
South Korea’s military announced on Sunday that multiple missiles had been launched from waters near the North Korean port of Sinpo, where Pyongyang operates a shipyard that manufactures naval assets including submarines. It did not go into further detail.
The Pulhwasal-3-31 is a new generation of nuclear-capable cruise missile that Pyongyang first tested last Wednesday, as it seeks to enhance the weapons capability of the country’s navy.
The testing of cruise missiles, which are jet-propelled and fly at lower altitudes, is not banned under United Nations sanctions imposed over North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme that outlaw ballistic missile testing.
KCNA said the SLCMs were in the air for 7,421 seconds and 7,445 seconds – approximately two hours – but did not say how far they flew.
North Korea’s exact sea-based launch capabilities remain unclear, and previous tests have been carried out from older vessels, including from a submerged platform, rather than an actual submarine.
Kim expressed “great satisfaction” over Sunday’s test, according to KCNA, noting North Korea’s determination to build a “powerful naval force”.
The North Korean leader separately inspected “the building of a nuclear submarine” and discussed issues related to the construction of other new warships, the report added without giving details.
“They will focus on improving naval power in the East Sea and test weapons systems that can be mounted on submarines, with the first attempt being this strategic cruise missile,” Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies told the AFP news agency.
“In the future, it will lead to the development of submarine-launched ballistic missiles and nuclear-powered submarines, which will have a much higher impact than SLCMs,” he added.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un chatting with military officials at the submarine-launched cruise missile test [KCNA via Reuters]
Proven SLBM capability would take North Korea’s arsenal to a new level, allowing deployment far beyond the Korean Peninsula and a second-strike capability in the event of an attack.
Choi Il, a retired South Korean Navy submarine captain, said once a nuclear-tipped SLCM becomes operational, it will pose a “new threat” to South Korea.
“North Korea will be equipped with a two-track nuclear attack means, with the capabilities of mass destruction of a SLBM and precision strike of a SLCM,” he said.
In recent months, North Korea has tested a variety of weapons, including ballistic missile systems under development and an underwater drone.
Last September, Kim launched the country’s first nuclear attack submarine, which analysts said was probably designed to carry ballistic and cruise missiles and appeared to be modified from an existing diesel-powered submarine.
KCNA said the submarine marked the beginning of a new chapter for North Korea’s navy.
Ukrainian authorities uncovered a corrupt arms procurement deal worth nearly €36.4 million, the Ukrainian security service announced late Saturday.
Former and current “high-ranking officials” in Kyiv’s defense ministry were involved in the plot, dating to 2022, to steal funds meant for procuring 100,000 mortar rounds, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said in a statement.
The scheme reflects Ukraine’s ongoing struggle to combat corruption as it tries to fight off Moscow’s invasion and apply to join the EU and NATO.
According to the SBU, the defense ministry paid for the weapons order in August 2022, transferring the funds to supplier Lviv Arsenal. Instead of delivering the weapons, however, the company “took the received funds into the shadows, transferring them to the accounts of another affiliated structure in the Balkans,” according to the statement.
The SBU said it seized the stolen funds and notified five people of suspicion, including the former and current heads of the department responsible for military equipment at the defense ministry. One suspect is in custody after being detained while trying to leave Ukraine, the SBU said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has compared corruption to treason. Yet his move to hand graft-fighting authority to the SBU — a unit under his direct control — rather than existing corruption watchdogs has sparked controversy and fears that sensitive cases could be covered up.
Taiwan’s military “monitored the situation and tasked appropriate forces to respond,” the country’s ministry of national defense said.
Tensions between Beijing and Taipei have remained high ever since Lai Ching-te won Taiwan’s presidential election early this month with a political campaign focused on pushing back against China’s threats against the island.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Thailand to discuss ongoing geopolitical insecurity, including attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Middle East.
Sullivan pressed Wang to use China’s influence with Iran to ease tensions in the Mideast. The officials also agreed to work toward arranging a call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“China has influence over Tehran; they have influence in Iran. And they have the ability to have conversations with Iranian leaders that — that we can’t,” John Kirby, White House National Security Council spokesman, told reporters earlier.
Though unsuccessful, the attack marks an intensification in the battle between the Houthis, which control large parts of Yemen, and a U.S.-led naval operation aimed at protecting commercial shipping in one of the most important global trade routes.
In recent weeks, Western navies have repeatedly responded to Houthi attacks against cargo ships traveling along the coast of Yemen that began soon after the October 7 attack by the Hamas militant group against Israel.
The Yemen-based group said it was conducting its attacks in solidarity with the Palestinian group. In response, Western militaries are now increasingly targeting Houthi weapons sites in Yemen.
On Friday, the Houthi rebels also struck an oil tanker with a missile, according to the ship’s operator Trafigura. The company said on Saturday that it was assessing the security risks of further Red Sea voyages after firefighters put out a blaze on the tanker, the Marlin Luanda.
He claimed the Russian army detected two missile launches from Ukraine-controlled areas that hit the plane.
“Most likely, it was American Patriot systems or European, probably French,” Putin said. POLITICO could not independently verify his claims.
Putin refuted theories of “friendly fire” for the downing of the aircraft. “There are friend-or-foe systems, and no matter how many times the operator presses the button, our air defense systems would not have engaged,” Putin said.
“We only regret about our pilots,” he added.
Russia’s Investigative Committee reported collecting the remains and documents of deceased Ukrainian servicemen. Russia has sole access to the crash site.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday called for an international investigation into the crash. Kyiv said it couldn’t confirm the plane carried Ukrainian POWs. Ukrainian media initially reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces downed the plane.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan today signed into law Sweden’s accession to NATO.
“Welcome Türkiye’s approval of the ratification of Sweden’s NATO accession,” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson tweeted. “With this, a key milestone has been reached in Sweden’s path towards NATO membership.”
All NATO members, except Hungary, have ratified Sweden’s application to join the military alliance, prompted by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
Shortly before Erdoğan’s move, U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake said he expected the rapid sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.
At least 18 people have been killed and more than 130 injured after Russia hit Ukraine’s biggest cities with waves of missiles.
Speaking in a sombre evening address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia had launched some 40 missiles of varying types.
More than 200 sites were hit, including 139 homes, with many deaths in “an ordinary high-rise apartment building”, Zelenskyy said. “Ordinary people lived there.”
He promised a strong response.
“The Russian war will inevitably be brought back home, back to where this evil came from, where it must be quelled,” he said.
The northeastern city of Kharkiv suffered three waves of attacks. There were also attacks on the capital Kyiv and in central Ukraine while the southern region of Kherson was subject to constant shelling.
Oleksandra Terekhovich ran into the corridor of her home in Kharkiv when she heard the first explosion. The second blast hit the building next door, shattering her windows and door, she said.
“There are no more tears. Our country has been going through what has been happening for two years now. We live with horror inside of us,” she told the AFP news agency.
Sappers load an unexploded missile warhead onto a truck after the Russian aerial attack on Kyiv [Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo]
The relentless Russian bombardment has kept Ukrainians on edge while the 1,500km (930 mile) front line, where soldiers are engaged in trench and artillery warfare, has barely moved.
Analysts say Russia stockpiled missiles at the end of last year in preparation for the latest campaign that a US official said was an attempt to probe the weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defences.
Kharkiv regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov said more than 100 high-rise apartment blocks had been damaged in the first two attacks on the city, with Russia using S-300, Kh-32 and hypersonic Iskander missiles. An attack later on Tuesday evening also hit a residential building and other infrastructure, causing more injuries.
The city’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said people were trapped in the rubble with temperatures at -7C (19.4F).
‘All these buildings were on fire’
In Kyiv, emergency services said the destruction spread across four districts.
At one site, rescuers tended to dazed and groaning residents as workers swept away debris and broken glass.
“There was a very loud bang, and my mother was already running outside, shouting that we need to leave. We all went to the corridor,” 21-year-old Daniel Boliukh told the Reuters news agency.
“Then, we went on the balcony to have a look and saw all these buildings were on fire.”
Emergency services said apartment buildings as well as medical and educational institutions were damaged in the capital. Some of the damage occurred next to the United Nations office, resident coordinator Denise Brown said in a statement.
Pavlohrad, an industrial city in the eastern Dnipro region, also came under attack. One person was killed and two schools and eight high-rise buildings were damaged, according to the presidential office.
Ukrainian officials said the country was targeted with a variety of Russian missiles including S-300, Kh-32 and hypersonic Iskander missiles [Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters]
Ukraine’s General Staff said the country’s armed forces had destroyed 22 of the missiles with nearly 20 shot down over Kyiv, the city’s military administration said.
The recent Russian attacks represent “an alarming reversal” of a trend last year, which saw a drop in civilian casualties from Kremlin attacks, according to the UN.
More than 10,000 civilians have been killed and nearly 20,000 injured since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the UN said.
The Kremlin denied it targeted civilians in Wednesday’s bombardment.
The Russian defence ministry said the raids had struck companies producing missiles, explosives and ammunition.
Danny Jia was walking down a street outside Taiwan’s Taoyuan city in late December when he suddenly heard automatic gunfire.
Not far from Jia’s location that morning, the 249th mechanised infantry brigade of the Taiwanese armed forces was conducting military drills at Guanyin beach on the island’s northwest coast.
“I was so startled that I almost dropped my phone,” the 46-year-old civil servant told Al Jazeera.
“The exercises are also a scary reminder that a war might actually come to Taiwan in the future,” Jia said.
Guanyin beach is one of Taiwan’s so-called “red beaches” – stretches of the coastline that in the event of a Chinese invasion, offer the most favourable conditions for amphibious landing assaults.
For China’s military planners, Guanyin beach would be particularly suitable as it lies less than 18 kilometres (11 miles) from Taiwan’s primary international airport, and only about 50 kilometres (31 miles) from the outskirts of the Taiwanese capital, Taipei.
Democratic and self-ruled Taiwan has never been part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), but Beijing considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control.
In his new year speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping called Taiwan’s unification with mainland China “inevitable”.
With the ever-present threat of China’s troops spilling onto Taiwan’s shores one day, Jia believes that the military drills on red beaches serve an important purpose in preparing the Taiwanese military for the worst.
Recently, however, Jia has found himself convinced that such a scenario is far from certain due to events in China’s own military ranks.
At the end of December, nine high-ranking military officers were removed from their positions.
Several of those axed were from the Chinese military’s elite “rocket force”, which oversees China’s tactical and nuclear missiles.
Earlier, in August, two leading figures in the rocket force were likewise removed.
That same month, the then-Chinese defence minister, Li Shuangfu, went missing.
Li has since been dismissed and replaced by Dong Jun.
With so many changes among the top brass, Jia said he failed to see how the Chinese armed forces could be prepared for the complex planning involved in a large-scale assault on Taiwan in the near future.
“I think there is too much chaos in China’s military for that,” he said.
A limited Taiwanese respite
People in Taiwan have reasons to feel more secure, according to Christina Chen, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) think tank.
“The removal of senior officers demonstrates that Xi Jinping is clearly not confident in the military, and that reduces the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the near term,” Chen told Al Jazeera.
The relatively large number of Chinese officers expelled in such a short time can also affect the armed forces’ fighting spirit as uncertainty spreads as to who will be targeted next.
“More removals might follow and that could further weaken the morale of the military and its ability to fight,” Chen said.
While the risk of an imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait may have been reduced, Chen sees Beijing’s long-term goal of taking over Taiwan staying firmly in place.
China’s new defence minister, Dong Jun, has experience with military matters regarding Taiwan from his previous roles as commander of the Chinese navy, deputy commander of the Southern Theatre Command and deputy commander of China’s East Sea Fleet.
Although a defence minister serves mostly a diplomatic and public role in China, the appointment of the highly experienced Dong Jun was not arbitrary, according to Chen.
It reflects Beijing’s overall ambition of turning China into a maritime power that can rival the United States and eventually annex Taiwan, she said.
Beijing has in recent years increasingly projected its growing maritime and air power in Taiwan’s direction.
Sabre-rattling rhetoric and large-scale military drills in the waters close to Taiwan have also accompanied times of particular tension.
This was the case in the aftermath of then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in 2022 and after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s stopover in San Francisco last year where she met with Pelosi’s successor, Kevin McCarthy.
Some observers expect a similarly assertive Chinese reaction leading up to President-elect William Lai Ching-te taking office in May following his victory in the Taiwanese presidential election on January 13.
Beijing has branded Lai a separatist and declared that the election result would not change the Chinese government’s stance on Taiwan’s unification with the mainland.
Chen sees Beijing’s pressure campaign directed at Taiwan continuing despite the dismissals in the Chinese military ranks.
“That will not change no matter how many military officers are removed,” she said.
The biggest purge
According to Associate Professor Alfred Wu, a scholar specialising in corruption and governance in China at the National University of Singapore, the removal of Chinese military officials is more than a simple shake-up.
“In addition to the anticorruption effort, it is a purge,” Wu told Al Jazeera.
“Xi Jinping is strengthening his hold over the military and sending a signal to all those that are not completely aligned with him that they might be next and therefore should be afraid,” he said.
Wu described the use of fear as a tool employed to try to secure loyalty in China’s authoritarian state structure where a lack of oversight and transparency can easily result in corruption and poor governance.
Since Xi came to power in 2012, several anticorruption campaigns have resulted in purges throughout the Chinese state apparatus.
The Chinese military has long had a reputation for corruption, but the fact that the army’s elite rocket force has been targeted is unprecedented.
The scale of the crackdown has left observers describing it as one of the biggest in Chinese military history.
Under the rule of Xi, who has called for the military’s absolute loyalty, purges are, in Wu’s words, “a continuous process”.
Purges might even grow in frequency and magnitude, according to Wu, as the legitimacy that the Chinese government enjoyed during the country’s economic boom years comes under strain at a time when the Chinese economy is showing signs of weakness.
“The economic situation might cause insecurity to grow within the Chinese government leading them to take more hawkish steps to secure loyalty within the state and in the military,” he said.
However, continuing purges within the Chinese military may have a lingering impact on its capabilities.
“It’s difficult to fight a war if many of your generals are in jail,” Wu said.
Back on the outskirts of Taoyuan city near one of Taiwan’s “red beaches”, Jia, the civil servant who was startled by the military exercises in December, said that he doesn’t wish ill on anyone.
But he also hopes the purges continue if they protect peace.
“I hope that more Chinese officers will lose their jobs if it means we won’t get a war.”
PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday he plans to sign a bilateral security agreement with Kyiv during a visit to Ukraine next month.
Macron said France would “continue to help Ukraine to hold the front line and protect its skies,” and that the two countries “were finalizing a deal.” Speaking at a Paris press conference, Macron also announced the delivery of 40 Scalp long-range missiles and “several hundred” bombs to Ukraine in the coming weeks.
France has been working on a deal for several months, aiming to shore up Ukraine’s defenses and finances in the long term. Macron’s statement comes in the wake of last week’s visit to Kyiv by British PM Rishi Sunak, during which he signed a bilateral security deal and pledged €3 billion in military aid to Ukraine over the next two years.
European partners are under pressure to up their military support for Ukraine as Russia continues its relentless air strikes and U.S. aid seems stalled in Congress.
Earlier this month, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz issued an unusually stark call to other EU countries to deliver more weapons to Ukraine. The arms deliveries planned so far are “too small,” he said, despite Berlin’s pledge to double its military aid to Kyiv to €8 billion this year.
According to the Kiel Institute, which tallied military aid to Ukraine in the public domain, Germany was the second-highest donor last year after the U.S., with €17.1 billion, followed by the U.K. with €6.6 billion, and then Nordic and Eastern European countries. France, in comparison, has only contributed €0.54 billion, Italy €0.69 billion and Spain €0.34 billion.
Macron also said France and Europe would have to take “new decisions in the weeks and months ahead,” likely a reference to talks in Brussels to resolve a dispute over a €50 billion aid package to Ukraine.
An increasingly belligerent Russian President Vladimir Putin could attack the NATO military alliance in less than a decade, Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned.
“We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day … so we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day,” Pistorius told German outlet Der Tagesspiegel in an interview published Friday.
While a Russian attack is not likely “for now,” the minister added: “Our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible.”
Following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has upped its aggressive rhetoric against some of its neighbors — including the Baltic countries and Poland, which are all members of NATO, and Moldova — prompting top European defense officials to warn of the risk of a major conflict.
On Wednesday, the chair of NATO’s military committee of national chiefs Admiral Rob Bauer said the military alliance faced “the most dangerous world in decades” and called for a “warfighting transformation of NATO.”
Earlier this month, Sweden’s commander-in-chief General Micael Bydén similarly called on Swedes to “prepare themselves mentally” for war.
The same day, Sweden’s Minister for Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin also warned that “war could come to Sweden.”
In his interview with Der Tagesspiegel, Pistorius said the Swedish warnings were “understandable from a Scandinavian perspective,” adding that Sweden faced “an even more serious situation,” given its proximity to Russia. It is also not yet a member of the NATO alliance, waiting for approval from Turkey and Hungary to join.
“But we also have to learn to live with danger again and prepare ourselves — militarily, socially and in terms of civil defense,” Pistorius warned.
Poland, which is spending more than 4 percent of its GDP on defense this year, is also worried about Russia’s unpredictability following the unexpected attack on Ukraine in 2022.
“Russia is defying logic. What happened in 2022 seemed impossible. We must be ready for any scenario,” Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said in a television interview earlier this week.
Late last year, Germany revamped its military and strategic doctrine for the first time since 2011, aiming to turn the Bundeswehr into a war-capable military.
“War has returned to Europe. Germany and its allies once again have to deal with a military threat. The international order is under attack in Europe and around the globe. We are living in a turning point,” said the first paragraph of the new doctrine.
Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, an outspoken Putin critic who has been one of the loudest voices in support of Ukraine in the EU, on Thursday called on Europe to speed up preparations for more Russian aggression.
“There’s a chance that Russia might not be contained in Ukraine,” Landsbergis told French newswire AFP at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “There is no scenario in this that if Ukraine doesn’t win, that could end well for Europe,” he warned.
TEL AVIV — As he tries to cling to power, Benjamin Netanyahu is being buffeted by contradictory demands over the direction of the war in Gaza. His war cabinet is increasingly urging a cease-fire deal to be struck with Hamas — to secure the return of Israeli hostages — while lawmakers in his own Likud party are pushing in the opposite direction and pressing for military operations to remain unrelenting.
Unable to square the circle, the Israeli leader appears to have chosen to postpone decisions about the direction of the war, but it is doubtful they can be delayed for much longer. A public groundswell is starting to build for military operations to be put on hold and for a cease-fire to be reached with Hamas for the release of more than a hundred Israelis still being held in Gaza.
There’s rising alarm about the captives’ treatment and the conditions they are enduring. Thousands of Israelis took to the streets over the weekend calling for the hostages to be prioritized over the military campaign. And in a television interview Thursday, a war cabinet minister, Gadi Eisenkot, a former and highly popular chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), warned the only way to save hostages in the near term is through a deal even if that comes at a high price.
Eisenkot, whose 25-year-old son and 19-year-old nephew died fighting in Gaza in December, also appeared to criticize Netanyahu’s management of the war with Hamas, suggesting the Israeli leadership is not telling the Israeli public the truth about the conflict and that talk of destroying Hamas is over-blown. A complete victory over the militant group is unrealistic, he said.
“Whoever speaks of the absolute defeat [of Hamas in Gaza] and of it no longer having the will or the capability [to harm Israel], is not speaking the truth. That is why we should not tell tall tales,” Eisenkot said.
Eisenkot also said elections should be held soon to restore public trust in the Israeli government following the devastating October 7 attack on southern Israel by Hamas. Eisenkot is seen by some as a future prime minister candidate, favored by some even over Benny Gantz, a former defense minister. The two are leaders of the centrist National Unity Party and agreed to join Netanyahu’s war cabinet after October 7 as a demonstration of national solidarity.
The Eisenkot interview, broadcast by Israel’s Channel 12 News, was especially damaging as it was broadcast hours after Netanyahu rejected in a press conference the idea of holding elections in the middle of a war. Netanyahu said he could continue in power well into 2025. He vowed to “bring about a complete victory” over Hamas.
Netanyahu’s indecision is also infuriating his own lawmakers — they worry there is a lack of defined goals beyond the slogan of “destroying Hamas,” and fear the prime minister will cave to pressure for a cease-fire. And they complain about a throttling back of military operations, which has seen the IDF move away from large-scale ground operations and air strikes to conduct more targeted missions.
Tactical transition
Senior Israeli military officials first confirmed on January 8 the tactical transition, with military spokesman Daniel Hagari saying the IDF would reduce troop numbers in the Palestinian enclave and conduct “one-off raids there instead of maintaining wide-scale maneuvers.”
Described as Phase 3 in the military campaign, officials in briefings cast the transition as necessary to give reservists some rest for the long haul in a war they say will take months, and to return others to their jobs to help the country’s ailing economy. The officials also said some troops needed to be redeployed to Israel’s tense northern border, where Hezbollah attacks have prompted Israel to threaten a ground campaign in Lebanon.
But the reasons given for the adjustment are disputed by some Likud lawmakers, including by Danny Danon, a former U.S. envoy to the U.N. He and others view the shift more than anything as an effort to placate the Biden administration and European governments anxious about the civilian death toll in Gaza. And there’s mounting talk of a possible future party leadership challenge to Netanyahu.
“We hear a lot of declarations both from the prime minister and [Defense Minister] Yoav Gallant almost every day about how we’re going to eradicate and destroy Hamas. But when you look at what’s happening now, I’m not sure it’s going in that direction,” Danon told POLITICO in an exclusive interview. “If he will not win the war, then I’m sure there will be another leader from the right that will step in because that will be the time,” he added.
Danon has twice challenged Netanyahu for the party leadership, in 2007 and 2014, but waves off a question about whether he will again seek the party’s leadership, saying merely that Likud is growing uneasy. “I speak with a lot of people and I hear them. They demand victory,” he said. “He’s being tested. Netanyahu has done a lot for Israel over the years, but he will be remembered by the way he finishes the war.”
Danon said the only acceptable conclusion to the war is “either Hamas surrenders or it is destroyed.” Military pressure is what led to the release of some hostages in December, he said. “What has happened now is that we have changed the way we are conducting the operation because of the pressure coming from the U.S.,” he added.
With opinion polls suggesting Likud has lost a third of its electoral support since October 7, Danon suggested victory could restore the party’s fortunes as well as being necessary for the security of Israel. “We need to hit Hamas so hard they will not be able to come against us anymore,” he said, adding that prime ministers, including Netanyahu have too often pulled up short before and announced Israel has been made safe and its enemies have now been deterred only for attacks to resume. “You cannot play that game anymore,” he said.
Party unease
With Likud members becoming increasingly restless, Netanyahu is more and more focusing on trying to tamp down internal party dissent. “It is all about Likud at the moment,” said a senior Israeli official, who was granted anonymity to talk about a sensitive issue. The official acknowledged that talk of a party rebellion might be premature and that Likud critics would have to calculate that an attempt to oust Netanyahu could ultimately trigger early elections that would see Likud lose badly. Nonetheless, the Israeli leader is agitated about the unease within the ranks of a party that he molded over the years in his own image, stacking it with loyalists and promoting those who share his views.
Likud disapproval partly explains Netanyahu’s strong push back last week on Washington’s readout of a phone conversation between the Israeli leader and U.S. President Joe Biden — their first since December. Israeli officials on Saturday took issue with Biden’s remarks after the call in which he said a two-state solution may still be possible even while Netanyahu is in power. Biden told reporters some “types” of two-state solution may be acceptable to the Israeli premier, even though Netanyahu has frequently ruled out the notion of establishing a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Netanyahu’s office reiterated his rigid opposition in a statement sent to POLITICO following Biden’s take. “In his conversation with President Biden, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated his policy that after Hamas is destroyed Israel must retain security control over Gaza to ensure that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel, a requirement that contradicts the demand for Palestinian sovereignty,” his office said.
A two-state solution is anathema for the right-wing of the Likud party.
Lying along the Kaladar River in Chin State, Paletwa is a strategically important city on a major trade route.
The Arakan Army (AA), an armed ethnic group fighting as part of an alliance against the Myanmar military, has claimed control of a key western town near the border with India and Bangladesh.
The AA, which was in an uneasy truce with the military until late October, said it took full control of Paletwa in Chin State on Sunday afternoon, having overrun multiple military outposts.
“There is not a single military council camp left in the entire Palewa area,” it said in a statement on its media page, which was accompanied by photos showing AA soldiers posing with their weapons outside key administrative buildings adorned with the group’s flag as well as weapons, ammunition and military equipment it had seized.
“The entire Palewa region has been successfully controlled by [the] Rakhine Army,” the statement added.
There was no comment from the military on the situation in Paletwa, or any reports in state-run media.
The capture of Paletwa is another setback to the generals who are facing the biggest challenge since they seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup in February 2021.
#AA 🎉declares #PaletwaVictory! Seizing the last ‘Hnamadar’ & ‘Khan Kha Taung,’ Paletwa is #SAC_free. “Mee Wa” seized after nearly 2 years of attacks. Today, Paletwa is AA-controlled. Salute Arakkha Soldiers for bravery, obedience and seamless cooperation. #3BHA#Operation1027pic.twitter.com/IaCnenjHUa
The AA claims to have about 30,000 troops and is part of the so-called Three Brotherhood Alliance with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’Ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) that launched a major offensive against the military at the end of October.
Known as Operation 1027, the offensive has wrested control of key towns and military outposts near the border with China in the north and given renewed momentum to the anti-coup movement.
Dr Sasa, the minister of international cooperation in the National Unity Government set up by politicians removed in the coup, welcomed the AA capture of Paletwa.
“This is a significant success for the Nationwide Revolution, the Spring Revolution of Myanmar, the fight to free to entire population of Myanmar from the genocidal military dictatorship and to restore Myanmar to the path of an inclusive federal democratic Union for ALL,” he wrote on X.
42nd town to fall
The AA’s advance comes days after China announced it had brokered a ceasefire between the armed groups and the military in northern Shan State. A similar agreement in December quickly collapsed.
The AA has been fighting the military in Rakhine, where a brutal military crackdown on the Rohingya in 2017 is now the subject of a genocide case at the International Court of Justice, in an attempt to secure autonomy for its ethnic population.
Just before Myanmar’s national election in November 2020, the AA agreed to a truce with the military but when the generals seized power the AA’s political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), took the opportunity to extend and entrench its power in Rakhine and fighting resumed amid military concern at the AA’s growing power.
Chin State lies north of Rakhine and Paletwa is situated along the Kaladan River about 20km (12 miles) from the border with Bangladesh.
Nathan Ruser, an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Cyber, Tech and Security programme, who has been mapping the advance of anti-coup forces, said the town was the 42nd nationwide to be captured from the military with 16 still being contested.
In addition, 25 battalion headquarters have been captured since the offensive started three months ago, “clearly marking the decisive shift towards offensive warfare by the resistance”, Ruser wrote on X.
The military coup triggered mass rallies demanding the restoration of civilian rule but when the military responded with brutal force, many protesters took up arms, joining forces with ethnic armed groups on the country’s borders.
The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a Myanmar advocacy group that has been tracking the crisis, says at least 4,363 civilians and pro-democracy activists have been killed by the military in the escalating violence, and nearly 20,000 people have been jailed by the regime.
As per a new law, the Department of Defense will begin tracking overdoses within the United States military in 2024 and begin to provide naloxone to service members beginning in 2025.
Military overdose deaths have historically not been systematically tracked until the release of a report by Rolling Stone in 2022 detailing the steep rise in overdose deaths at Fort Bragg, which has since been renamed to Fort Liberty. The report detailed the shocking increase in deaths from fentanyl, counterfeit prescription pills laced with fentanyl and deaths in otherwise healthy young men from causes typically sustained from long-term drug use that were not labeled as overdoses.
In general, Rolling Stone described shoddy record-keeping and experienced a general lack of transparency from the brass at Fort Liberty regarding drug use, drug-related crimes or overdose by military members. Of the 109 deaths that occurred at Fort Liberty between 2020 and 2021, at least 14 soldiers died directly from overdose, though that number is likely higher if you count deaths from drug-related causes, 21 by Rolling Stone’s count, making accidental overdose the leading cause of death at Fort Liberty behind suicide which claimed the lives of 41 soldiers in the same time period.
After the Rolling Stone report, pressure built on Congress to do something about the issue and Senator Edward Markey (D-Mass.) along with other congressmen began to push the Pentagon for increased transparency. This request led to an admission by the Pentagon that fentanyl-related deaths roughly doubled among military members between 2017 and 2021, much like the rest of the country experienced. According to a Military.com report, 330 service members died from drug overdose between 2017 and 2022, and 15,000 soldiers experienced non-fatal overdoses in the same time frame.
“Real security means guaranteeing that members of the military and their families can get resources and life-saving treatment necessary to stop the overdose crisis in its tracks,” Senator Markey said in a statement to Military.com.
The law requiring overdose tracking and NARCAN distribution was signed by President Biden in December of 2022 and goes into effect in 2024. According to Military.com, the Department of Defense will be required to submit an annual report on overdose deaths, overdose locations, demographics, whether the service member had previously sought mental health treatment, or if they’d previously been prescribed opioids, benzodiazepines or stimulants.
“It’s really just smart public health,” said Professor Alex Bennett to Military.com. Bennett serves as the director of New York University’s Opioid Overdose Prevention Program. “There’s really a lot of drug naivete amongst military personnel,” Bennett said.
Part of the issue, as is the same with the civilian population, is that fentanyl is often used to make “pressed pills” or fake prescription pills designed to look like pharmaceutical painkillers or benzodiazepines which are often poorly dosed, causing people to unwittingly ingest a lethal dose of fentanyl. The Drug Enforcement Administration has estimated that about 70% of fake prescription pills contain a potentially lethal dose of fentanyl.
“We’ve been working with a lot of veterans who use substances while they’re in the military. Transparency with data tracking like the kind the military is set to begin doing is a step in the right direction,” Bennett said. “Closing your eyes to drug problems doesn’t solve anything,” Bennett said. “It just makes things worse.”
Carole De Nola, whose 23-year-old child died of an overdose while stationed at Fort Liberty, told Military.com that drug education is especially needed among military members as the new law does not require the military to educate service members on the dangers of fentanyl.
“We should be dealing with this before a service member’s about to overdose,” De Nola said.
It was not immediately clear how the military would be distributing naloxone, commonly known as NARCAN, which is a life-saving medication that can halt an opioid overdose in its tracks. Many NARCAN distribution programs have been established at the level of local cities and townships but nothing has been established federally, or by military leadership until the new law was passed. The new law requires that naloxone be made available to all troops by the year 2025. The law also requires all the naloxone distributed by tracked, which could discourage some military members from seeking it out.
Legal experts are said to be planning to push back against Donald Trump‘s potential efforts at a broad military takeover in the event that he is reelected in November, according to a new report.
The former president is among the field of candidates seeking the 2024 GOP presidential nomination as part of his bid to retake the White House. National polling averages have consistently suggested that he leads the pack by a wide margin, regularly giving him around or above 50 percent support from likely Republican voters.
In a report published on Sunday, NBC News found that “a loose-knit network of public interest groups and lawmakers is quietly devising plans to try to foil any efforts to expand presidential power,” amid recent comments and moves from Trump indicating his intention to pursue his political agenda if reelected this year.
In November 2023, The Washington Post published a report outlining Trump’s alleged plans to invoke the Insurrection Act on the very first day of his hypothetical second term in the White House, allowing him to use military force to quash protests against his presidency. During the last months of his presidency, Trump was reportedly told by lawyer Jeffrey Clark that the Insurrection Act could be used to shut down protests if he had attempted to remain in office despite losing to Joe Biden in the 2020 election.
Former President Donald Trump attends a military academy graduation in June 2020. A new report has revealed a developing plan among legal experts to combat Trump’s potential military takeover if reelected this year. David Dee Delgado/Getty Images
Meanwhile, during a town hall event hosted by Fox News host Sean Hannity last month, Hannity pressed Trump to pledge that he would never “abuse power as retribution against anybody,” as had been suggested in recent reports, if he’s reelected. In response, Trump suggested that he would only behave in such a way on the first day of his hypothetical second term.
“Except for day one,” Trump said. “No, no, no, other than day one. We’re closing the border and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling. After that, I’m not a dictator.” His drilling comment was a reference to his vow to expand oil drilling in the U.S.
Speaking with NBC News, Mary McCord, executive director of the Institution for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection at Georgetown Law and participant in this initiative, said that they are preparing to bring any number of lawsuits against the former president depending on the actions he might take if reelected.
“We’re already starting to put together a team to think through the most damaging types of things that he [Trump] might do so that we’re ready to bring lawsuits if we have to,” McCord said.
The group’s plan for the moment, according to the report, is to identify and connect like-minded individuals and organizations who will be able to confront Trump’s potential overreach “from day one.”
The report also mentioned participants “combing through policy papers being crafted for a future conservative administration,” likely referring to the Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025,” a plan being crafted in the event of a Republican presidential victory this year to greatly expand the powers afforded to the executive branch of the U.S. government.
Political analyst and historian Julian Zelizer previously told Newsweek that Trump allies could “go very far” with the ideas being put forward by the project, which says that Article II of the U.S. Constitution makes it “abundantly clear” that the executive branch’s powers are solely invested in the president.
Newsweek reached out to Trump’s office via email for comment.
While Trump is heavily favored to once again clinch the GOP presidential nomination, the outlook for the general election remains less clear-cut. While news cycles have been recently dominated by coverage of President Joe Biden’s troubled approval ratings, polls so far have shown that he and Trump are neck-and-neck in a hypothetical November rematch, with some giving Biden the edge and some skewing for Trump.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Europe’s leaders and top officials are descending on Kyiv with pledges of fresh support as Russia continues its relentless air attacks against Ukraine.
Newly appointed French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said on Saturday in Kyiv that Ukraine will remain “France’s priority” despite “the multiplying crises” during his first foreign trip after his appointment last week. Séjourné hailed a “new phase” in joint weapons production with Ukraine during a press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba.
Séjourné’s trip came on the heels of a visit Friday by U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during which he announced a multi-year security pact with Ukraine. The British leader committed £2.5 billion (€2.9 billion) in military aid to Ukraine for 2024/2025, as he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv.
France’s Séjourné pledged to boost joint cooperation with Ukraine and “reinforce Ukraine’s capacity to produce on its territory” with France’s top firms. France has also been negotiating a security pact with Ukraine but the details have yet to be announced.
Poland’s Donald Tusk is expected to visit Kyiv this week, possibly on Monday.
The visits by European leaders come in the wake of weeks of renewed Russian air strikes against Ukraine and amid fears that U.S. help has stalled due to a blocked Congress and this year’s American presidential election. On Saturday, Ukrainian air defenses recorded a total of 40 attacks.
Earlier this month, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz issued an unusually stark call to other EU countries to deliver more weapons to Ukraine. The arms deliveries planned so far were “too small,” he said, despite Berlin’s pledge to double its military aid to Kyiv to €8 billion this year.
According to the Kiel Institute, which tallied up military aid to Ukraine in the public domain, Germany was the second-highest donor last year after the U.S., with €17.1 billion; it was followed by the U.K. with €6.6 billion and by Nordic and eastern EU countries. France, in comparison, has only contributed €0.54 billion, Italy €0.69 billion and Spain €0.34 billion.
It’s that time of year again: Leaders, business titans, philanthropists and celebs descend on the Swiss ski town of Davos to discuss the fate of the world and do deals/shots with the global elite at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.
This year’s theme: “Rebuilding trust.” Prescient, given the dumpster fire the world seems to be turning into lately, both literally (climate change) and figuratively (where to even begin?).
As always, the Davos great and good will be rubbing shoulders with some of the world’s absolute top-drawer dirtbags. While there’s been a distinct dearth of Russian oligarchs in attendance at the WEF since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Donald Trump will be tied up with the Iowa caucus, there are still plenty of would-be autocrats, dictators, thugs, extortionists, misery merchants, spoilers and political pariahs on the Davos guest list.
1. Argentine President Javier Milei
Known as the Donald Trump of Argentina — and also as “The Madman” and “The Wig” — the chainsaw-wielding Javier Milei has it all: a fanatical supporter base, background as a TV shock jock, libertarian anarcho-capitalist policies (except when it comes to abortion), and a … memorable … hairdo.
A long-time Davos devotee (he’s been attending the WEF for years), Milei’s libertarian policies have turned from kooky thought bubbles to concerning reality after he was elected president of South America’s second-largest economy, riding a wave of discontent with the political establishment (sound familiar?). The question now is how far Milei will go in delivering on his campaign promises to hack back public service and state spending, close the Argentine central bank and drop the peso.
If you do get stuck talking to Milei in the congress center or on the slopes, here are some conversation starters …
Rumor has it that Mohammed bin Salman will make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event, accompanied by a giant posse of top Saudi officials.
It’s the ultimate redemption arc for the repressive authoritarian ruler of a country with an appalling human rights record — who, according to United States intelligence, personally ordered the brutal assassination of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.
Rumor has it that Mohammed bin Salman will make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event | Leon Neal/Getty Images
Perhaps MBS would still be a WEF pariah — consigned to rubbing shoulders with mere B-listers at his own Davos in the desert — if it were not for that other one-time Davos-darling-turned-persona-non-grata: Russian President Vladimir Putin. By launching his invasion of Ukraine, which killed thousands of civilians and hundreds of thousands of troops, Putin managed to push the West back into MBS’ embrace. Guess it’s all just oil under the bridge now.
Here’s a piece of free advice: Try to avoid being caught getting a signature MBS fist-bump. Unless, of course, you’re the next person on our list …
3. Jared Kushner, founder of Affinity Partners
Jared Kushner is the closest anyone on the mountain is likely to come to Trump, the former — and possibly future — billionaire baron-cum-anti-elitist president of the United States of America.
On the one hand, a chat with The Donald’s son-in-law in the days just after the Iowa caucus would probably be quite a get for the Davos devotee. On other hand … it’s Jared Kushner.
The 43-year-old, who is married to Ivanka Trump and served as a senior adviser to the former president during his time in office, leveraged his stint in the White House to build up a lucrative consulting career, focused mainly on the Middle East.
Kushner’s private equity firm, Affinity Partners, is largely funded through Gulf countries. That includes a $2 billion investment from the Saudi Public Investment Fund, led by bin Salman — which was, coincidentally, pushed through despite objections by the crown prince’s own advisers.
Kushner struck up a friendship and alliance with MBS during his father-in-law’s term in office, raising major conflict-of-interest suspicions for the Trump administration — especially when the then-U.S. president refused to condemn the Saudi leader in Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, despite the CIA concluding he was directly involved.
Running Azerbaijan is something of a family business for the Aliyevs — Ilham assumed power after the death of his father, Heydar Aliyev, an ex-Soviet KGB officer who ruled the country for decades. And the junior Aliyev changed Azerbaijan’s constitution to pave the path to power for the next generation of his family — and appointed his own wife as vice president to boot.
5. Chinese Premier Li Qiang
Li Qiang is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ultra-loyal right-hand man, and will represent his boss and his country at the World Economic Forum this year.
Li’s claim to infamy: imposing a brutal lockdown on the entirety of Shanghai for weeks during the coronavirus pandemic, which trapped its 25 million-plus inhabitants at home while many struggled to get food, tend to their animals or seek medical help — and tanking the city’s economy in the process.
Li’s also the guy selling (and whitewashing) China’s Uyghur policy in the Islamic world. In case you need a refresher, China has detained Uyghurs, who are mostly Muslim, in internment camps in the northwest region of Xinjiang, where there have been allegations of torture, slavery, forced sterilization, sexual abuse and brainwashing. China’s actions have been branded genocide by the U.S. State Department, and as potential crimes against humanity by the United Nations.
Li Qiang will represent his boss and his country at the World Economic Forum this year | Johannes Simon/Getty Images
Nicknamed “the Napoleon of Africa” in a nod to his campaign to seize power in 1994, Paul Kagame has ruled over the land of a thousand hills since. He’s often praised for overseeing what is probably the greatest development success story of modern Africa; he’s also a dictator.
Forced from office in 2018 by mass protests following the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová, Fico rose from the political ashes to become Slovakian prime minister for the fourth time late last year. His Smer party ran a Putin-friendly campaign, pledging to end all military support for Ukraine.
Slovakian courts are still working through multiple organized crime cases stemming from the last time Smer was in power, involving oligarchs alleged to have profited from state contracts; former top police brass and senior military intelligence officers; and parliamentarians from all three parties in Fico’s new coalition government.
8. President of Hungary Katalin Novák
Katalin Novák, elected Hungarian president in 2022, must’ve pulled the short straw: she’s been sent to Davos to fly the flag for the EU’s pariah state. Luckily, the 46-year-old is used to being the odd one out at a shindig: She’s both the first woman and the youngest-ever Hungarian president.
It’s her thoughts on the gender pay gap, though, that ought to get attention at the famously male-dominated World Economic Forum: In an infamous video posted back in late 2020, Novák told the sisterhood: “Do not believe that women have to constantly compete with men. Do not believe that every waking moment of our lives must be spent with comparing ourselves to men, and that we should work in at least the same position, for at least the same pay they do.” That’s us told.
9. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet
You may be surprised to see Hun Manet on this list: The new, Western-educated Cambodian prime minister has been touted in some circles as a potential modernizer and reformer.
But Hun Manet is less a breath of fresh air and a lot more continuation of the same stale story. Having inherited his position from his father, the longtime autocrat Hun Sen, Hun Manet has shown no signs of wanting to reform or modernize Cambodia. While some say it’s too early to tell where he’ll land (given his dad’s still on the scene, along with his Communist loyalists), the fact is: Many hallmarks of autocracy are still present in Cambodia. Repression of the opposition? Check. Dodgy “elections”? Check. Widespread graft and clientelism? Check and check.
10. Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani
How has a small kingdom of 2.6 million inhabitants in the Persian Gulf managed to play a starring role in so many explosive scandals?
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani is the prime minister of Qatar, a country that’s played a starring role in many explosive scandals | Chris J. Ratcliffe/AFP via Getty Images
You’d think that sort of record would see Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani shunned by the world’s top brass. Nah! Just this month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the Qatari leader and told him the U.S. was “deeply grateful for your ongoing leadership in this effort, for the tireless work which you undertook and that continues, to try to free the remaining hostages.”
See you on the slopes, Mohammed!
11. Polish President Andrzej Duda
When you compare Polish President Andrzej Duda to some of the others on this list, he doesn’t seem to measure up. He’s not a dictator running a violent petro-state, hasn’t invaded any neighbors or even wielded a chainsaw on stage.
But Duda is yesterday’s man. As the last one standing from Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice party that was swept out of office last year, Duda’s holding on for dear life to his own relevance, doing his best to act as a spoiler against the Donald Tusk-led government by wielding his veto powers and harboring convicted lawmakers. All of which is to say: When you catch up with President Duda at Davos, don’t assume he’s speaking for Poland.
12. Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco
The Saudi Arabian state oil and gas company is Aramco — the world’s biggest energy firm — and Amin Nasser is its boss. If you read Aramco’s press releases, you’d be forgiven for assuming it is also the world’s biggest champion of the green energy transition. Spoiler alert: It’s far from it.
Exhibit A: Aramco is reportedly a top corporate polluter, with environment nongovernmental organization ClientEarth reporting that it accounts for more than 4 percent of the globe’s greenhouse gas emissions since 1965. Exhibit B: Bloomberg reported in 2021 that it understated its carbon footprint by as much as 50 percent.
Nasser, meanwhile, has criticized the idea that climate action should mean countries “either shut down or slow down big time” their fossil fuel production. Say that to Al Gore’s face!
This article has been updated to reflect the fact Shou Zi Chew is no longer going to attend the World Economic Forum.
Dionisios Sturis, Peter Snowdon, Suzanne Lynch and Paul de Villepin contributed reporting.
BRUSSELS — One of Europe’s most senior politicians recounted how former U.S. President Donald Trump privately warned that America would not come to the EU’s aid if it was attacked militarily.
“You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you,” Trump told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020, according to French European Commissioner Thierry Breton, who was also present at a meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
“By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO,” Trump also said, according to Breton. “And he added, ‘and by the way, you owe me $400 billion, because you didn’t pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defense,'” Breton said about the tense meeting, where the EU’s then-trade chief Phil Hogan was also present.
Breton told the anecdote at an event in the European Parliament in Brussels on Tuesday, just days before the Republican Party holds its January 15 caucus in Iowa, the opening contest in Trump’s bid to win the Republican nomination for a run at returning to the White House. Party members will cast their votes for candidates including Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who both trail way behind the ex-president in opinion polls.
Brussels is rife with fear about the possibility Trump will return to the U.S. presidency.
As the commissioner in charge of the EU’s industrial policy and defense agenda, Breton has pushed for the EU to boost its own self-defense capabilities amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, and on Tuesday floated a €100 billion fund to ramp up arms production in the bloc.
“That was a big wake-up call and he may come back,” Breton said about Trump. “So now more than ever, we know that we are on our own, of course. We are a member of NATO, almost all of us, of course we have allies, but we have no other options but to increase drastically this pillar in order to be ready [for] whatever happens.”
Western warplanes and guided missiles roared through the skies over Yemen in the early hours of Friday in a dramatic response to the worsening crisis engulfing the region, where the U.S. and its allies are facing a direct confrontation with Iranian-backed militants.
The strikes against Houthi fighters are a response to weeks of fighting in the Red Sea, where the group has attempted to attack or hijack dozens of civilian cargo ships and tankers in what it calls retribution for Israel’s military offensive in Gaza. Washington launched the massive aerial bombardment of the group’s military stores and drone launch sites in partnership with British forces, and with the support of a growing coalition that includes Germany, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, South Korea and Bahrain.
Tensions between Tehran and the West have boiled over in the weeks since its ally, Hamas, launched its October 7 attack on Israel, while Hezbollah, the military group that controls much of southern Lebanon, has stepped up rocket launches across the border. Along with Hamas and Hezbollah, the Houthis form part of the Iranian-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ opposed to both the U.S. and Israel.
Now, the prospect of a full-blown conflict in one of the most politically fragile and strategically important parts of the world is spooking security analysts and energy markets alike.
Escalation fears
Houthi leaders responded to the strikes, which saw American and British forces hit more than 60 targets in 16 locations, with characteristic bravado. They warned the U.S. and U.K. will “have to prepare to pay a heavy price and bear all the dire consequences” for what they called a “blatant aggression.”
“We will confront America, kneel it down, and burn its battleships and all its bases and everyone who cooperates with it, no matter what the cost,” threatened Abdulsalam Jahaf, a member of the group’s security council.
However, following the overnight operation, Camille Lons, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said there may now be “a period of calm because it may take Iran some time to replenish the Houthis stocks” before they are able to resume high-intensity attacks on Red Sea shipping. But, she cautioned, their motivation to continue to target shipping will likely be unaltered.
The Western strikes are “unlikely to immediately halt Houthi aggression,” agreed Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. national intelligence officer for the Near East. “That will almost certainly mean having to continue to respond to Houthi strikes, and potentially with increasing aggression.”
“The Houthis view themselves as having little to lose, emboldened militarily by Iranian provisions of support and confident the U.S. will not entertain a ground war,” he said.
Iran also upped the ante earlier this week by boarding and commandeering a Greek-operated oil tanker that was loaded with Iraqi crude destined for Turkey, intercepting it as it transited the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel, the St. Nikolas, was previously apprehended for violating sanctions on Iranian oil and its cargo was confiscated and sold off by the U.S. Treasury Department. Its Greek captain and crew of 18 Filipino nationals are now in Iranian custody, with the incident marking a sharp escalation in the threats facing maritime traffic.
Israeli connection
Washington and London are striving to distinguish their bid to deter the Houthis in the Red Sea from the war in Gaza, fearful that merging the two will hand Tehran a propaganda advantage in the Middle East. The Houthis and Iran are keen to accomplish the reverse.
The Houthi leadership claims its attacks on maritime traffic are aimed at pressuring Israel to halt its bombing of the Gaza Strip and it insists it is only targeting commercial vessels linked to Israel or destined to dock at the Israeli port of Eilat, a point contested by Western powers.
“The Houthis claim that their attacks on military and civilian vessels are somehow tied to the ongoing conflict in Gaza — that is completely baseless and illegitimate. The Houthis also claim to be targeting specifically Israeli-owned ships or ships bound for Israel. That is simply not true, they are firing indiscriminately on vessels with global ties,” a senior U.S. official briefing reporters in Washington said Friday.
Wider Near East crisis
The Red Sea isn’t the only hotspot where American and European forces and their allies are facing off against Iran and its partners.
In November, U.S. F-15 fighter jets hit a weapons storage facility in eastern Syria that the Pentagon says was used by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Shia militants it supports in the war-torn country. The response came after dozens of American troops were reportedly injured in attacks in Iraq and Syria linked back to Tehran.
Israel’s war with Hamas has also risked spreading, after a blast killed one of the militant group’s commanders in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, earlier in January. Hezbollah vowed a swift response and tensions have soared along the border between the two countries, with Israeli civilians evacuated from their homes in towns and villages close to the frontier.
All of that contributes to an increasingly volatile environment that has neighboring countries worried, said Christian Koch, director at the Saudi Arabia-based Gulf Research Center.
“There’s a lot at stake at the moment and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and others are extremely worried about further escalation and then being subject to retaliation,” he said. “Now, the danger of regional escalation has been heightened further, which could mean that Iran will get further involved in the conflict, and this is a dangerous spiral downwards.”
While long-planned efforts to normalize ties between the Saudis and Israel collapsed in the wake of the October 7 attack and the subsequent military response, Riyadh has pushed forward with a policy of de-escalation with the Houthis after a decade of violent conflict, and sought an almost unprecedented rapprochement with Iran.
“Saudi Arabia has had one objective, which is to prevent this from escalating into a wider regional war,” said Tobias Borck, an expert on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute. “It has attempted over the last few years to bring its intervention in the war in Yemen to a close, including through negotiations with the Houthis and actually from all we know from the outside, [they] are reasonably close to an agreement.”
The Western coalition is therefore a source of anxiety, rather than relief, for Gulf States.
“Saudi Arabia and UAE are staying out of this coalition because mainly they don’t want to have the Houthis attack them as they had been for years and years with cruise missiles,” said retired U.S. General Mark Kimmitt, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs. However, American or European boots on the ground are unlikely to be necessary, he added, because “our capabilities these days to find, fix and attack even mobile missile launchers is pretty well refined.”
Far-reaching consequences
At the intersection of Europe and Asia, the Red Sea is a vital thoroughfare for energy and international trade. Maritime traffic through the region has already dropped by 20 percent, Rear Admiral Emmanuel Slaars, the joint commander of French forces in the region, told reporters on Thursday.
According to data published this week by the German IfW Kiel institute, global trade fell by 1.3 percent from November to December, with the Houthi attacks likely to have been a contributing factor.
The volume of containers in the Red Sea also plummeted and is currently almost 70 percent below usual, the institute said. In December, that caused freight costs and transportation time to rise and imports and exports from the EU to be “significantly lower” than in November.
In one indication of the impact on industrial supply chains, U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla said Friday it would shut its factory in Germany for two weeks.
Around 12 percent of the world’s oil and 8 percent of its gas normally flow through the waterway, as well as hundreds of cargo ships. Oil prices climbed more than 2.5 percent following the strikes, fueling market concerns of the impact a wider conflict could have on oil supplies from the region, especially those being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and the world’s most important oil chokepoint.
The Houthi attacks on the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways, have already caused major shipping companies, including oil giant BP, to halt shipments through the Red Sea, opting for a lengthy detour around the Cape of Good Hope instead.
According to Borck, the impact on energy prices has been limited so far but will depend on what happens next.
“We need to look for two actors’ actions here. One is the Houthis, how they respond, and the other one is, of course, looking at how Iran responds,” he said. While Tehran has the “nuclear option” of closing the Strait of Hormuz altogether, it’s unlikely to do so at this stage.
“I don’t think the Strait of Hormuz is next. I think there would be quite a few steps on the escalation ladder first,” he added.
But Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert at Brussels’ Bruegel think tank, warned that a growing confrontation with Iran could lead to tougher enforcement of sanctions on its oil exports. The West has turned a blind eye to Tehran’s increasing sales to China in the wake of the war in Ukraine, which has relieved some pressure on global energy markets.
A crackdown, he believes, “could see global oil prices rising substantially, pushing inflation higher and further complicating the efforts of central banks to bring it under control.”
However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could help compensate for such a move by ramping up their own production — provided they’re willing to risk the ire of Iran.
Gabriel Gavin reported from Yerevan, Armenia. Antonia Zimmermann from Brussels and Jamie Dettmer from Tel-Aviv.
Laura Kayali contributed reporting from Paris.
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Gabriel Gavin, Antonia Zimmermann and Jamie Dettmer
