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  • ‘We definitely are eyeing the public markets’: eToro CEO considers IPO after scrapped SPAC deal

    ‘We definitely are eyeing the public markets’: eToro CEO considers IPO after scrapped SPAC deal

    The eToro logo is seen during the 2021 Web Summit in Lisbon, Portugal.

    Pedro Fiúza | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Stock brokerage platform eToro is getting interest from bankers and investors about a public market listing after its scrapped plans to go public via merger with a blank-check company, CEO Yoni Assia told CNBC.

    “We definitely are eyeing the public markets,” Assia told CNBC in an exclusive interview last week. “I definitely see us becoming eventually a public company.”

    “When is the ideal time to do that? We’re always evaluating the right opportunity at the right time and the right market,” he added.

    Assia said that his brokerage company has built good relationships with exchanges, including the Nasdaq stock exchange.

    EToro has already put the work in toward becoming a public company, he suggested, and the question of listing is more a matter of when, not if.

    “It’s our business, right? Retail investors come to eToro to buy shares of a public company. So we’re happy to engage and build those relationships over time as we scale more.”

    Figures shared by eToro with CNBC exclusively show that the firm recorded $630 million in revenue in 2023, more or less matching the $631 million in revenue it attracted in 2022.

    But the company reported more than $100 million in EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization), an impressive margin for a retail brokerage business.

    The company did not provide a comparable profit figure for 2022.

    EToro relies mainly on fees related to trading, like spreads on buy and sell orders, as well as fees for non-trading activities like money withdrawals and currency conversion.

    EToro now has 35.5 million registered users, and over 3 million funded accounts. The company crossed $10 billion in total customer assets under administration in 2023, according to its financials.

    Assia also disclosed that eToro has purchased a company called Deep, which focuses on content automation.

    This is an area the company plans to focus on heavily in 2024.

    Assia said eToro has been using AI heavily in its business, particularly in content and marketing. Around 80% of all of eToro’s marketing context, graphics, content, and localization integrates AI, he added.

    AI is also serving a use case in investing and trading, according to Assia, with the company focusing heavily on integrating this into the product experience.

    AI-related stocks, meanwhile, have generated a great deal of buzz among eToro’s userbase.

    “If we think about AI, and what is the holy grail of AI for our customers, it’s obviously generating alpha in the markets,” Assia told CNBC.

    AI has become a buzzy area for investors following the explosion of interest surrounding ChatGPT, the AI chatbot developed by Microsoft-backed company OpenAI.

    Learnings from the SPAC process

    EToro, which lets users buy and sell stocks via an online platform, was originally meant to go public through a combination with the special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, FinTech Acquisition Corp — which belonged to Bancorp founder Betsy Cohen.

    A SPAC is effectively a listed shell company that’s set up with the aim of taking another target company public. The trend was immensely popular during a boom in such listings in 2020 and 2021 that saw companies from Virgin Orbit to Cazoo go public in much-hyped deals. The hype has since faded.

    But eToro shelved these plans, which would have given the company a valuation of $8.8 billion.

    Assia, who claims to have begun his trading journey from an early age, said eToro has learned a lot from the experience, which saw FinTech Acquisition Corp plummet and eventually dissolve and liquidate.

    “We’ve learned a lot from the experience, looking at public markets in the U.S. and seeing sort of the bubble burst,” Assia told CNBC.

    “We said 2022 is the year of education for customers to understand that the markets don’t always go up,” Assia said. “And I think 2023 is probably an educational year around the globe.”

    “When everybody’s pessimistic is when markets actually do go up.”

    Since its shelved listing plans, eToro in March 2023 raised $250 million at a $3.5 billion valuation in a deal backed by SoftBank Vision Fund 2, ION Investment Group, and Velvet Sea Ventures.

    Then, in a deal reported exclusively by CNBC, eToro let early employees and investors sell $120 million worth of stock to existing shareholders in a secondary share sale.

    That deal valued it slightly below $3.5 billion.

    Financial technology companies have had a tough time over the last couple of years following a spike in interest rates, which have clobbered some risk assets. More recently, companies have seen a better time in the public markets, with shares of Affirm and Coinbase up 172% and 165%, respectively.

    That hasn’t yet translated into private markets which, on the whole, remain depressed from levels reached during the height of the 2020 and 2021 fintech boom.

    Assia noted that retail investors aren’t quite yet back in full in the stock market, and are still facing challenges given the higher cost of living.

    However, he expects things to improve in 2024 with the expectation that interest rates will be lowered by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

    Assia said eToro was focused heavily on product in 2023, prioritizing things like a better advanced trading experience and technical analysis features for its more hardcore user base.

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  • Nvidia posts record revenue up 265% on booming AI business

    Nvidia posts record revenue up 265% on booming AI business

    Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang attends a media roundtable meeting in Singapore on Dec. 6, 2023.

    Edgar Su | Reuters

    Nvidia reported fourth fiscal quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s forecast for earnings and sales, and said that revenue during the current quarter would be better than expected, even against elevated expectations for massive growth.

    Nvidia shares rose about 6% in extended trading.

    Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting for the quarter ending in January, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    • Earnings: $5.15 per share, adjusted, versus $4.64 per share expected.
    • Revenue: $22.10 billion, versus $20.62 billion expected.

    Nvidia said it expected $24.0 billion in sales in the current quarter. Analysts polled by LSEG were looking for $5.00 per share on $22.17 billion in sales. 

    Nvidia reported $12.29 billion in net income during the quarter, or $4.93 per share, up 769% versus last year’s $1.41 billion or 57 cents per share. 

    Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of the recent technology industry obsession with large artificial intelligence models, which are developed on the company’s pricey graphics processors for servers.

    Nvidia’s total revenue rose 265% from a year ago, based on strong sales for AI chips for servers, particularly the company’s “Hopper” chips like the H100, it said.

    “Strong demand was driven by enterprise software and consumer internet applications, and multiple industry verticals including automotive, financial services, and healthcare,” the company said in commentary provided to investors.

    Those sales are reported in the company’s Data Center business, which now comprises the majority of Nvidia’s revenue. Data center sales were up 409% to $18.40 billion. Over half of the company’s data center sales went to large cloud providers.

    Nvidia said its data center revenue was hurt by recent U.S. restrictions on exporting advanced AI semiconductors to China.

    The company’s gaming business, which includes graphics cards for laptops and PCs, was merely up 56% year-over-year to $2.87 billion. Graphics cards for gaming used to be Nvidia’s primary business before its AI chips started taking off, and some of Nvidia’s graphics cards can be used for AI.

    Nvidia’s smaller businesses did not show the same meteoric growth. Its automotive business declined 4% to $281 million in sales, and its OEM and other business, which includes crypto chips, rose 7% to $90 million. Nvidia’s business making graphics hardware for professional applications rose 105% to $463 million.

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  • Magnificent 7 profits now exceed almost every country in the world. Should we be worried?

    Magnificent 7 profits now exceed almost every country in the world. Should we be worried?

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on January 31, 2024 in New York City.

    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

    The so-called “Magnificent 7” now wields greater financial might than almost every other major country in the world, according to new Deutsche Bank research.

    The meteoric rise in the profits and market capitalizations of the Magnificent 7 U.S. tech behemoths — Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — outstrip those of all listed companies in almost every G20 country, the bank said in a research note Tuesday. Of the non-U.S. G20 countries, only China and Japan (and the latter, only just) have greater profits when their listed companies are combined.

    Deutsche Bank analysts highlighted that the Magnificent 7’s combined market cap alone would make it the second-largest country stock exchange in the world, double that of Japan in fourth. Microsoft and Apple, individually, have similar market caps to all combined listed companies in each of France, Saudi Arabia and the U.K, they added.

    However, this level of concentration has led some analysts to voice concerns over related risks in the U.S. and global stock market.

    Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s head of global economics and thematic research, cautioned in a follow-up note last week that the U.S. stock market is “rivalling 2000 and 1929 in terms of being its most concentrated in history.”

    Deutsche analyzed the trajectories of all 36 companies that have been in the top five most valuable in the S&P 500 since the mid-1960s.

    Reid noted that while big companies eventually tended to drop out of the top five as investment trends and profit outlooks evolved, 20 of the 36 that have populated that upper bracket are still in the top 50 today.

    “Of the Mag 7 in the current top 5, Microsoft has been there for all but 4 months since 1997. Apple ever present since December 2009, Alphabet for all but two months since August 2012 and Amazon since January 2017. The newest entrant has been Nvidia which has been there since H1 last year,” he said.

    Tesla had a run of 13 months in the top five most valuable companies in 2021/22 but is now down to 10th, with the share price having fallen by around 20% since the start of 2024. By contrast, Nvidia’s stock has continued to surge, adding almost 47% since the turn of the year.

    “So, at the edges the Mag 7 have some volatility around the position of its members, and you can question their overall valuations, but the core of the group have been the largest and most successful companies in the US and with it the world for many years now,” Reid added.

    Could the gains broaden out?

    Despite a muted global economic outlook at the start of 2023, stock market returns on Wall Street were impressive, but heavily concentrated among the Magnificent Seven, which benefitted strongly from the AI hype and rate cut expectations.

    In a research note last week, wealth manager Evelyn Partners highlighted that the Magnificent 7 returned an incredible 107% over 2023, far outpacing the broader MSCI USA index, which delivered a still healthy but relatively paltry 27% to investors.

    Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at Evelyn Partners, suggested that signs are emerging that opportunities in U.S. stocks could broaden out beyond the 7 megacaps this year for two reasons, the first of which is the resilience of the U.S. economy.

    “Despite rising interest rates, company sales and earnings have been resilient. This can be attributed to businesses being more disciplined on managing their costs and households having higher levels of savings built up during the pandemic. In addition, the U.S. labour market is healthy with nearly three million jobs added during 2023,” Casali said.

    Nvidia has an 'iron grip' on the market, says RSE Ventures' Matt Higgins

    The second factor is improving margins, which Casali said indicates that companies have adeptly raised prices and passed the impact of higher inflation onto customers.

    “Although wages have risen, they haven’t kept pace with those price rises, leading to a decline in employment costs as a proportion of the price of goods and services,” Casali said.

    “Factors, including China joining the World Trade Organisation and technological advances, have enabled an increased supply of labour and accessibility to overseas job markets. This has contributed to improving profit margins, supporting earnings growth. We see this trend continuing.”

    When the market is so heavily weighted toward a small number of stocks and one particular theme — notably AI — there is a risk of missed investment opportunities, Casali said.

    Many of the 493 other S&P 500 stocks have struggled over the past year, but he suggested that some could start to participate in the rally if the two aforementioned factors continue to fuel the economy.

    “Given AI-led stocks’ stellar performance in 2023 and the beginning of this year, investors may feel inclined to continue to back them,” he said.

    “But, if the rally starts to widen, investors could miss out on other opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven stocks.”

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  • Companies — profitable or not — make 2024 the year of cost cuts

    Companies — profitable or not — make 2024 the year of cost cuts

    Mathisworks | Digitalvision Vectors | Getty Images

    Corporate America has a message for Wall Street: It’s serious about cutting costs this year.

    From toy and cosmetics makers to office software sellers, executives across sectors have announced layoffs and other plans to slash expenses — even at some companies that are turning a profit. Barbie maker Mattel, PayPal, Cisco, Nike, Estée Lauder and Levi Strauss are just a few of the firms that have cut jobs in recent weeks.

    Department store retailer Macy’s said it will close five of its namesake department stores and cut more than 2,300 jobs. JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines have offered staff buyouts, while United Airlines cut first-class meals on some of its shortest flights.

    As consumers watch their wallets, companies have felt pressure from investors to do the same. Executives have sought to show shareholders that they’re adjusting to consumer demand as it returns to typical patterns or even softens, as well as aggressively countering higher expenses.

    Airlines, automakers, media companies and package giant UPS are all digesting new labor contracts that gave raises to tens of thousands of workers and drove costs higher.

    Companies in years past could get away with passing on higher costs to customers who were willing to splurge on everything from new appliances to beach vacations. But businesses’ pricing power has waned, so executives are looking for other ways to manage the budget — or squeeze out more profits, said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY.

    “You are in an environment where cost fatigue is very much part of the equation for consumers and business leaders,” Daco said. “The cost of most everything is much higher than it was before the pandemic, whether it’s goods, inputs, equipment, labor, even interest rates.”

    There are some exceptions to the recent cost-cutting wave: Walmart, for example, said last month that it would build or convert more than 150 stores over the next five years, along with a more than $9 billion investment to modernize many of its current stores.

    And some companies, such as banks, already made deep cuts. Five of the largest banks, including Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, together eliminated more than 20,000 jobs in 2023. Now, they’re awaiting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that would free up cash for pent-up mergers and acquisitions.

    But cost reductions unveiled in even just the first few weeks of the year amount to tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars. In January, U.S. companies announced 82,307 job cuts, more than double the number in December, while still down 20% from a year ago, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas.

    And the tightening of months prior is already showing up in financial reports.

    So far this earnings season, results have indicated that companies have focused on driving profits higher without the tailwind of big price increases and sales growth.

    As of mid-February, more than three-quarters of the S&P 500 had reported fourth-quarter results, with far more earnings beats than revenue beats. The quarter’s earnings, measured by a composite of S&P 500 companies, are on pace to rise nearly 10%. Revenues, however, are up a more modest 3.4%.

    Layoffs, flight cuts and store closures

    While companies’ drive for higher profits isn’t new, they have made bolstering the bottom line a priority this year.

    Downsizing has rippled across the tech industry, as companies followed the lead of Meta’s 2023 cuts, which many analysts credited with helping the social media giant rebound from a rough 2022. CEO Mark Zuckerberg had dubbed 2023 the “year of efficiency” for the parent of Facebook and Instagram, as it slashed the size of its workforce and vowed to carry forward its leaner approach.

    In recent weeks, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Cisco, among others, have announced staffing reductions.

    And the layoffs haven’t been contained to tech. UPS said it was axing 12,000 jobs, saving the company $1 billion, CEO Carol Tome said late last month, citing softer demand. Many of the largest retail, media and entertainment companies have also announced workforce reductions, in addition to other cuts.

    Warner Bros. Discovery has slashed content spending and headcount as part of $4 billion in total cost savings from the merger of Discovery and WarnerMedia. Disney initially promised $5.5 billion in cost reductions in 2023, fueled by 7,000 layoffs. The company has since increased its savings promise to $7.5 billion, and executives suggested in its Feb. 7 quarterly earnings report that it may exceed that target.

    Last week, Paramount Global announced hundreds of layoffs in an effort to “operate as a leaner company and spend less,” according to CEO Bob Bakish. Comcast’s NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC, has also recently eliminated jobs.

    JetBlue Airways, which hasn’t posted an annual profit since before the pandemic, is deferring about $2.5 billion in capital expenditures on new Airbus planes to the end of the decade, culling unprofitable routes and redeploying aircraft in addition to the worker buyouts.

    Delta Air Lines, which is profitable, in November said it was cutting some office jobs, calling it a “small adjustment.”

    Some cuts are even making their way to the front of the cabin. United Airlines, which also posted a profit in 2023, at the start of this year said it would serve first-class meals only on flights more than 900 miles, up from 800 miles previously. “On flights that are 301 to 900 miles, United First customers can expect an offering from the premium snack basket,” according to an internal post.

    Several of the country’s largest automakers, such as General Motors and Ford Motor, have lowered spending by billions of dollars through reduced or delayed investments on all-electric vehicles. The U.S.-based companies as well as others, such as Netherlands-based Stellantis, have recently reduced headcount and payroll through voluntary buyouts or layoffs.

    Even Chipotle, which reported more foot traffic and sales at its restaurants in the most recently reported quarter, is chasing higher productivity by testing an avocado-scooping robot called the Autocado that shortens the time it takes to make guacamole. It’s also testing another robot that can put together burrito bowls and salads. The robots, if expanded to other stores, could help cut costs by minimizing food waste or reducing the number of workers needed for those tasks.

    Shifting patterns

    Industry experts have chalked up some recent cuts to companies catching their breath — and taking a hard look at how they operate — after an unusual four-year stretch caused by the pandemic and its fallout.

    EY’s Daco said the past few years have been marked by a mismatch in supply and demand when it comes to goods, services and even workers.

    Customers went on shopping sprees, fueled by government stimulus and less experience-related spending. Airlines saw demand disappear and then skyrocket. Companies furloughed workers in the early pandemic and then struggled to fill jobs.

    He said he expects companies this year to “search for an equilibrium.”

    “You’re seeing a rebalancing happening in the labor markets, in the capital markets,” he said. “And that rebalancing is still going to play out and gradually lead to a more sustainable environment of lower inflation and lower interest rates, and perhaps a little bit slower growth.”

    The auto industry, for example, faced a supply issue during much of the Covid pandemic but is now facing a potential demand problem. Inventories of new vehicles are rising — surpassing 2.5 million units and 71 days’ supply toward the end of 2023, up 57% year over year, according to Cox Automotive — forcing automakers to extend more discounts in an effort to move cars and trucks off dealer lots.

    Automakers have also been contending with slower-than-expected adoption of EVs.

    David Silverman, a retail analyst at Fitch Ratings, said companies are “feeling a bit heavy as sales growth moderates and maybe even declines.”

    Cost cuts at UPS, Hasbro and Levi all followed sales declines in the most recent fiscal quarter. Macy’s, which reports earnings later this month, has said it expects same-store sales to drop, and there’s early evidence that may come to bear: Consumers pulled back on spending in January, with retail sales falling 0.8%, more than economists expected, according to the latest federal data.

    Most major retailers, including Walmart, Target and Home Depot, will report earnings in the coming weeks.

    Credit ratings agency Fitch said it doesn’t expect the U.S. economy to tip into recession, but it does anticipate a continued pullback in discretionary spending.

    “Part of companies’ decision to lower their expense structure is in line with their views that 2024 may not be a fantastic year from a top-line-growth standpoint,” Silverman said.

    Plus, he added, companies have had to find cash to fund investments in newer technology such as infrastructure that supports e-commerce, a resilient supply chain or investments in artificial intelligence.

    Forward momentum

    Companies may have another reason to cut costs now, too. As they see other companies shrinking the size of their workforces or budgets, there’s safety in numbers.

    Or as Silverman noted, “layoffs beget layoffs.”

    “As companies have started to announce them it becomes normalized,” he said. “There’s less of a stigma.”

    Even with rolling layoffs, the labor market remains strong, which may help explain why Wall Street has by and large rewarded those companies that have found areas to save and returned profits to shareholders.

    Shares of Meta, for example, almost tripled in price in 2023 in that “year of efficiency,” making the stock the second-best gainer in the S&P 500, behind only Nvidia. After laying off more than 20,000 workers in 2023, Meta on Feb. 2 announced its first-ever dividend and said it expanded its share buyback authorization by $50 billion.

    UPS, fresh from job cuts, said it would raise its quarterly dividend by a penny.

    Overall, dividends paid by companies in the S&P 500 rose 5.05% last year, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, and he estimated they will likely increase nearly 5.3% this year.

    — CNBC’s Michael Wayland, Alex Sherman, Robert Hum, Amelia Lucas and Jonathan Vanian contributed to this story.

    Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.

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  • Here are 10 undervalued stocks in our portfolio despite some of them around record highs

    Here are 10 undervalued stocks in our portfolio despite some of them around record highs

    A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

    Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    With the S&P 500 on Friday closing above 5,000 for the first time ever, recognizing the winners this year has not been difficult. But what about the ones that are still cheap — or less expensive — on a valuation basis? Those are not as easy to spot.

    We screened the 32 stocks in our portfolio late Monday and identified 10 that are undervalued based on traditional market metrics following their latest quarterly earnings reports. (The market was under heavy pressure Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected consumer price index.)

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street rattled over Fed worries

    CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street rattled over Fed worries


    A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 31, 2024. 

    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Wall Street retreats
    U.S. stocks
    lost ground on Monday and Treasury yields rose amid lingering concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as much as expected. The blue-chip Dow fell over 200 points. The S&P 500 also slumped after hitting a record high last week. The Nasdaq Composite also dropped 0.2%. 

    Oil’s supply crunch
    The oil market faces a supply crunch by the end of 2025 as the world is not replacing crude reserves fast enough, according to Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub. About 97% of the oil produced today was discovered in the 20th century, she told CNBC. 

    Palantir surges
    Shares of Palantir spiked 19% in extended trading after the company reported revenue that topped analysts’ estimates. In a letter to shareholders, Palantir CEO Alex Karp said demand for large language models in the U.S. “continues to be unrelenting.”

    Red Sea tensions
    Higher shipping costs due to tensions in the Red Sea could hinder the global fight against inflation, said the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Clare Lombardelli, chief economist at the OECD, told CNBC that shipping-driven inflation pressures remain a risk rather than its base case.

    [PRO] Banking allure
    The banking sector offers attractive opportunities despite an increase in volatility, according to fund manager Cole Smead. “It’s the banks that made bad decisions that are making [other] banks look attractive in pricing,” Smead told CNBC, who picked two bank stocks that are in play. 

    The bottom line

    Investors are once again getting ahead of themselves on the Fed’s next move.

    Markets were rattled after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank is unlikely to rush to lower interest rates. 

    Wall Street has been parsing his hawkish comments, yet in essence what Powell said over the weekend was no different than what he shared at Wednesday’s press conference: that he wants to see more evidence that inflation is coming down to a sustainable level.

    Still, the debate over the timing of rate cuts unsettled Fed watchers.  

    This sparked a sell-off spurred by higher bond yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury spiked for a second day, trading around 4.163%. Typically, higher yields tend to indicate investors think the Fed will take longer to cut rates. 

    Fresh data out Monday also didn’t help.  A new survey showed the U.S. services sector expand at a faster-than-expected clip in January. 

    This on top of the booming jobs report released Friday, fueled investor worries that rates may stay elevated for much longer.

    Wall Street will now look ahead to the swath of Fed speakers this week. Perhaps they will shed more light on the path for rate cuts.



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  • Stock investors fear ‘no-landing’ economy could spell trouble. What’s next?.

    Stock investors fear ‘no-landing’ economy could spell trouble. What’s next?.


    While the U.S. stock market has been pricing in a “soft-landing” scenario for the economy, a blowout January jobs report, relatively strong corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s comments during the past week could point to the possibility of “no landing,” where the economy is resilient while inflation stays on target.  

    Such a scenario could still be positive for U.S. stocks, as long as inflation remains steady, according to Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm. However, if inflation reaccelerates, the Fed may be hesitant to cut its policy interest rate much, which could spell trouble, Flax said in a call. 

    What the past week tells us

    Investors have just gone through the busiest week so far this year for economic data and corporate earnings reports, with stocks ending at or near their record highs.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    finished the week with its nineth record close of 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 index
    SPX
    scored its seventh record close this year on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    is about 2.7% lower from its peak.

    The Fed kept its policy interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% at its Wednesday meeting, as expected. However, in the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw cold water on market expectations that the central bank may start cutting its key interest rate in March, and underscored that they want “greater confidence” in disinflation. 

    Roger Ferguson, former Fed vice chairman, said Powell introduced “a new kind of risk, the risk of no landing.” 

    In that scenario, inflation will stop falling, while the economy is strong, Ferguson said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. However, Ferguson said he doesn’t think it is the likely outcome.   

    Traders were pricing in a 20.5% likelihood on Friday that the Fed will cut its interest rates in its March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool and that’s down from over 46% chance a week ago. The likelihood that the Fed will kick off its rate cutting program in May stood at 58.6% on Friday.  

    The stronger-than-expected January jobs data released on Friday further eliminates the chance of a rate cut in March, said Flax. 

    The U.S. economy added a whopping 353,000 new jobs in January while economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 185,000 increase in new jobs. Hourly wages rose a sharp 0.6% in January, the biggest increase in almost two years.

    The past week has also been heavy with earnings reports, as several tech giants including Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +1.84%
    ,
    Apple
    AAPL,
    -0.54%
    ,
    Meta
    META,
    +20.32%
    ,
    and Amazon
    AMZN,
    +7.87%

    reported their financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023. 

    Among the 220 S&P 500 companies that have reported their earnings so far, 68% have beaten estimates, with their earnings exceeding the expectation by a median of 7%, analysts at Fundstrat wrote in a Friday note.  

    While the reported earnings by big tech companies have been “okay,” the guidance was not, said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

    What has been driving the tech stocks’ rally since last year was mostly the prospect of sales from artificial intelligence products, but tech companies are not able to monetize the trend yet, Torres said in a phone interview. 

    Adding to the headwinds is a comeback of concerns around regional banks. 

    On Thursday, New York Community Bancorp Inc.’s stock triggered the steepest drop in regional-bank stocks since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023. New York Community Bancorp on Wednesday posted a surprise loss and signaled challenges in the commercial real estate sector with troubled loans.

    Meanwhile, the Fed’s bank term funding program, which was launched in March last year to bolster the capacity of the banking system, will expire on March 11. 

    If the Fed could start cutting its key interest rate in March, it would be “sort of like the ambulance that was going to pick regional banks up and save them,” said Torres. “Now the ambulance is coming in May at the earliest, I think that we’re in a particularly risky period from now to May,” Torres said. 

    What should investors do 

    Investors should go risk-off before May, according to Torres. “Last year, goods and commodities helped a lot on the disinflationary front. This year for disinflation to continue, we’re going to need services to start contributing to that. Then we’re going to need to see an increase in the unemployment rate,” Torres said. 

    He said he prefers U.S. Treasurys with a tenor of four years or shorter, as the long-dated ones may be susceptible to risks around the fiscal deficit and government borrowing. For stocks, he prefers the healthcare, utilities, consumer staples and energy sectors, he said. 

    Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, is more optimistic. The slowdown in inflation and the relatively strong economic data and earnings “don’t really paint a picture for a risk-off scenario,” he said. “The setup for risk assets still leans towards the bullish expectation,” Buchanan added. 

    In the week ahead, investors will be watching the ISM services sector data on Monday, the U.S. trade deficit on Wednesday and weekly initial jobless benefit claims numbers on Thursday. Several Fed officials will speak as well, potentially providing more clues on the possible trajectory of rate cuts.



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  • Algorithms, bias and hallucinations: 20 important AI terms investors should know

    Algorithms, bias and hallucinations: 20 important AI terms investors should know




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  • Tech’s longtime highfliers are growing up by getting smaller

    Tech’s longtime highfliers are growing up by getting smaller


    Visitors take photos in front of the Meta sign at its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, December 29, 2022.

    Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

    Technology companies are learning an old lesson from Wall Street: maturing means shrinking.

    Meta and Amazon saw their shares spike on Friday following their fourth-quarter earnings reports. While revenue for both topped estimates, the story for investors is that they’re showing their ability to do more with less, an alluring equation for shareholders.

    There’s also a recognition that investors value cash, in many cases, above all else. The tech industry has long preferred to reinvest excess cash back into growth, ramping up hiring and experimenting with the next big thing. But following a year of hefty layoffs and capital preservation, Meta on Thursday announced that, for the first time, it will pay a quarterly dividend of 50 cents per share, while also authorizing an additional $50 billion stock repurchase plan.

    “The key with these companies is really that they’re able to reinvent themselves,” said Daniel Flax, an analyst at Neuberger Berman, in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday. They “continue to invest for the future and play offense while at the same time manage expenses in this tough environment,” he said.

    Amazon is less aggressively moving to send cash to shareholders, but the topic is certainly being discussed. The company instituted a $10 billion buyback program in 2022 and hasn’t announced anything since. On Thursday’s earnings call, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak asked about plans for additional capital returns.

    “Just really excited to actually have that question,” finance chief Brian Olsavsky said in response. “No one has asked me that in three years.”

    Olsavsky added that “we do debate and discuss capital structure policies annually or more often,” but said the company doesn’t have anything to announce. “We’re glad to have the better liquidity at the end of 2023 and we’re going to try to continue to build that,” he said.

    After years of seemingly unfettered growth, the biggest internet companies in the world are firmly into a new era. They’re still out hunting for the best technical talent, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, but headcount growth is measured. Staffing up in certain parts of the business likely means scaling back elsewhere.

    ‘Playing to win’

    For example, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg told investors that when it comes to AI, “We’re playing to win here and I expect us to continue investing aggressively in this area in order to build the most advanced clusters.”

    Later on the call, when asked about expanding headcount, Zuckerberg said new hiring will be “relatively minimal compared to what we would have done historically,” adding that, “I kind of want to keep things lean.” 

    Olsavsky said most teams at Amazon are “looking to hold the line on headcount, perhaps go down as we can drive efficiencies in the size of our business.”

    The story is playing out across Silicon Valley. January was the busiest month for tech job cuts since March, according to the website Layoffs.fyi, with almost 31,000 layoffs at 118 companies. Amazon and Alphabet added to their 2023 job cuts with more layoffs last month, as did Microsoft, which eliminated 1,900 roles in its gaming unit shortly after closing the acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

    SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 23: XBOX CEO Phil Spencer arrives at federal court on June 23, 2023 in San Francisco, California. Top executives from Microsoft and Activision/Blizzard will be testifying during a five day hearing against the FTC to determine the fate of a $68.7B merger of the two companies. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Downsizing this week hit the cloud software market, where Okta announced it was cutting about 400 jobs, or 7% of its staff, and Zoom confirmed it was eliminating less than 2% of its workforce, amounting to close to 150 positions. Zuora announced a plan to cut 8% of jobs, or almost 125 positions based on the most recent headcount figures.

    Evan Sohn, chairman of Recruiter.com, called it a “very confusing job market.” Last year, tech companies were responding to dramatically changing market conditions — soaring inflation, rising interest rates, rotation out of risk — after an extended bull market. Meta slashed over 20,000 jobs in 2023, Amazon laid off more than 27,000 people, And Alphabet cut over 12,000 positions.

    The economy is in a very different place today. Growth is back at a healthy clip, inflation appears under control and the Federal Reserve is indicating rate cuts are on the horizon this year. Unemployment held at 3.7% in January, down from 6.4% three years earlier, when the economy was just opening up from pandemic lockdowns. And nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. 

    Tech stocks are booming, with Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft all at or near record levels.

    But the downsizing in the industry continues.

    “Companies are still in the cleanup from ’23,” Sohn told CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange” this week. “There could be a flipping of skills, different skills necessary to really handle the new world of 2024.”

    Recent layoffs are fueled by changing skills and push for AI, says Recruiter.com's Evan Sohn

    Wall Street is rewarding tech companies for improved discipline and cash distribution, but it raises the question about where they can turn for significant growth. Other than Nvidia, which had a banner 2023 due to soaring demand for its AI chips, none of the other mega-cap tech companies have been growing at their historic averages.

    Even Meta’s better-than-expected 25% growth for the fourth quarter is a bit misleading, because the comparable number a year ago was depressed due to a slowing digital advertising market and Apple’s iOS update, which made it harder to target ads. Finance chief Susan Li reminded analysts on Thursday that as 2024 progresses, the company will be “lapping periods of increasingly strong demand.”

    By late this year, analysts are projecting growth at Meta will be back down to the low teens at best. Growth estimates for Amazon and Alphabet are even lower, a good indication that calls for capital allocation measures may only get louder.

    Ben Barringer, technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot, told CNBC that Meta’s decision to pay a dividend was a “symbolic moment” in that regard.

    “Mark Zuckerberg is showing that he wants to bring shareholders along with him and is highlighting that Meta is now a mature, grown-up business,” Barringer said.

    — CNBC’s Annie Palmer contributed to this report

    WATCH: Meta’s Q4 report suggests it’s putting Nvidia’s chips to great use

    Here's why Rosenblatt raised its price target on Meta



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  • Wall Street punishes Alphabet and Microsoft despite earnings beats after stocks hit record

    Wall Street punishes Alphabet and Microsoft despite earnings beats after stocks hit record


    Google CEO Sundar Pichai speaks at a panel at the CEO Summit of the Americas hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Los Angeles on June 9, 2022.

    Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

    Results were good, but not good enough.

    That’s Wall Street’s reaction to quarterly results on Tuesday from Alphabet and Microsoft. Both companies reported revenue and earnings that exceeded estimates, yet the stocks sold off after hours, a drop that carried over into Wednesday’s trading session.

    In investor speak, the stocks were priced for perfection. Prior to earnings, Alphabet was up 56% for the year and climbed to a fresh high last week, exceeding the prior record from late 2021, the peak of the tech boom. Microsoft was up 70% over the past 12 months, also reaching a fresh high recently and surpassing Apple as the most valuable publicly traded company.

    The companies generated excitement last year by riding the artificial intelligence wave, and were also lauded by shareholders for their dramatic cost-cutting efforts, which included eliminating thousands of jobs.

    In the weeks heading into their earnings reports, investors were buying as if they expected positive surprises. They were left disappointed and nitpicked the numbers.

    Alphabet on Tuesday reported 13% revenue growth, the fastest rate of expansion since early 2022. Sales of $86.31 billion topped the average estimate of $85.33 billion, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Earnings per share of $1.64 beat estimates by 5 cents.

    Revenue at Microsoft increased 18% to $62.02 billion, topping the $61.12 billion average analyst estimate. EPS of $2.93 was 15 cents above consensus.

    Both companies also beat expectations in their cloud businesses, with Google Cloud reporting 25% growth and Microsoft’s larger Azure and other cloud services expanding 30%.

    The one disappointment from Alphabet was in Google’s ad business, which delivered revenue of $65.52 billion, trailing analysts’ estimates of $65.94 billion, according to StreetAccount. Within ads, YouTube came in just shy of expectations.

    Stifel analysts, who recommend buying the stock, said in a quick-take report on Tuesday that Alphabet produced “healthy advertising results, but not enough.”

    Brian Wieser, an analyst at media and advertising consultancy Madison and Wall, said the market has unrealistic expectations for Google given its size and dominance.

    “In my general conversations with public market investors and sell-side analysts, few have a correct view of the advertising market,” Wieser said. “Many think that growth can continue at double-digit levels for the fastest-growing companies for much longer a period of time than is realistic to expect.”

    Is the bubble bursting for tech workers?

    Alphabet shares dropped more than 6% Wednesday. Microsoft’s decline was less severe, with the stock falling less than 2%.

    Microsoft’s outlook was a bit light, overshadowing the earnings and revenue beat. The company called for fiscal third-quarter sales between $60 billion and $61 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG had expected $60.93 billion.

    Shares of chipmaker AMD also dropped despite better-than-expected revenue numbers and profit that met estimates. The stock, which is up 137% in the past year on excitement about its artificial intelligence processors, fell almost 6% after the announcement.

    Attention now turns to Thursday, when Amazon, Apple and Meta all report quarterly results. Similar to Alphabet and Microsoft, Meta shares have climbed to a record this month. Apple hit its all-time high in December, while Amazon remains about 6% below its record from 2022.

    — CNBC’s Jonathan Vanian, Jordan Novet and Kif Leswing contributed to this report.

    WATCH: This was a ‘high expectation’ quarter for Alphabet

    This was a 'high expectation' quarter for Alphabet, says Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney

    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:



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  • Wall Street issues a bullish call on big banks. Here’s what it says about our financial stocks

    Wall Street issues a bullish call on big banks. Here’s what it says about our financial stocks




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  • These 6 stocks will be non-AI winners of an AI boom, says Scotiabank

    These 6 stocks will be non-AI winners of an AI boom, says Scotiabank




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  • How the Apple iPhone became one of the best-selling products of all time

    How the Apple iPhone became one of the best-selling products of all time


    When Apple announced the iPhone in 2007, Steve Jobs called it a “revolutionary product” in a handset category that he said needed to be reinvented. 

    Now, nearly two decades and 42 models later, the iPhone is one of the world’s most popular phones. Apple has sold over 2.3 billion units of the iPhone and has over 1.5 billion active users, according to research from Demand Sage.

    The original iPhone was released in June 2007 and exclusively sold with AT&T for $499. 

    The late Apple CEO Steve Jobs unveiling the first iPhone in 2007.

    David Paul Morris | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    “Investors were optimistic about the impact that it could have with Apple,” said Deepwater Asset’s Gene Munster. “The initial data that came out from AT&T was a disappointment from that first few days of sales. I remember talking to investors after that first weekend, and the general sense was that this product, in one investor’s words, was dead on arrival.”

    Apple sold 1.4 million iPhones in 2007 with 80% of the sales coming in Q4. In the same year Nokia, the maker of the iconic Nokia 3310, sold 7.4 million mobile phones in Q4 alone. 

    “Nokia was seen as unstoppable, unbeatable,” said CNBC technology reporter Kif Leswing.

    JAPAN – FEBRUARY 15: The Nokia 3310 Launched on the 1st September 2000

    Science & Society Picture Library | SSPL| Getty Images

    “The investing community largely took this as something that is going to be a much more difficult market for Apple to really crack,” said Munster. 

    Things started to shift for Apple in 2008 when it launched the App Store. This helped spur a new wave of modern tech companies like Uber and put Apple ahead of its competitors. 

    “The App Store allowed your phone to become a lot more,” said Munster. “That was the piece, that insight, other phone manufacturers didn’t see that coming.”

    Apple saw increased iPhone unit sales in the years following the App Store. The company hit a major milestone — more than 50 million units sold — in 2011, with the help of the iPhone 4s. The company sold 72 million units that year. By 2015, Apple was selling over 200 million iPhone units yearly. 

    “I don’t think there’s any question the iPhone set the standard that really almost all phones have followed since then,” said Computer History Museum’s Marc Weber. “The App Store was a huge thing and Android basically followed that model with the Play Store.”

    A decade after the iPhone’s release, Apple was the first publicly traded U.S. company to hit a $1 trillion market cap and it’s now one of the most profitable companies in the world. 

    Apple recently surpassed Samsung, one of its biggest competitors, as the world’s smartphone leader for the first time. According to data from the International Data Corp., Apple holds just over 20% of the global market share, a spot that Samsung held since 2010. 

    “There was a period from 2008 to 2015 where Apple needed to worry about what Samsung was going to do with Android. Their market share was actually declining globally,” said Munster. “But, what Apple has been the master at is building the ecosystem. I can’t imagine a scenario where Samsung can build a suite of products that is going to disrupt the Apple ecosystem.”

    Recently, Apple has been dabbling in machine learning and AI for the iPhone, but companies such as Microsoft, Google and Open AI have more openly embraced the technology.

    “AI is going to be critical to humanity, and it’s going to be a critical feature inside of iPhones,” said Munster. “Apple uses AI to make the products work better with organizing photos, with helping organize emails, and potentially doing things around text organization. But for the most part is that the iPhone doesn’t capture, doesn’t really capture the full opportunity. Far from it when it comes to AI.”

    Watch the video to learn more about how the iPhone shaped Apple.



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  • As the S&P 500 enters bull market territory, here's what to consider before you invest

    As the S&P 500 enters bull market territory, here's what to consider before you invest

    People walk through the Financial District by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on the last day of trading for the year on December 29, 2023 in New York City.

    Spencer Platt | Getty Images

    The S&P 500 stock index climbed to a new all-time high on Monday.

    A bull market — by two definitions — is here. Last year, the S&P 500 rose more than 20% from its most recent low. As of Friday, it crossed another bull market threshold when it surpassed its previous high.

    For investors who want to get in on the action, the good news investing in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 index is an easily accessible strategy.

    But experts say it also deserves a word of caution: Past performance is not indicative of future returns. And while the S&P 500 was a clear winner in 2023 — finishing the year up 26% — it may not be the strategy that comes out ahead at the close of 2024.

    What is the S&P 500 index?

    How can you invest in the S&P 500?

    Today, investors may choose from mutual funds or exchange-traded funds that track the index. Among the biggest ETFs are: SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustiShares Core S&P 500 ETF, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.

    Vanguard in 1975 created the first index mutual fund that tracked the S&P 500. Vanguard founder John Bogle was famously a proponent of investing in a broad index fund.

    “Simply buy a Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fund or a total stock market index fund,” Bogle wrote in his book, “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing.”

    “Then, once you have bought your stocks, get out of the casino — and stay out,” he wrote. “Just hold the market portfolio forever.”

    More from Personal Finance:
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    Here’s where prices fell in December 2023, in one chart

    For stock investors who want to keep their strategies simple, experts say the approach can work.

    “Among the better decisions people can make is starting with an index-based fund tracking the S&P 500 because it works,” Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, recently told CNBC.com.

    Over time, passive strategies have shown better returns than actively managed funds. Moreover, the cost of those funds is much lower compared to active strategies. Together, that combination is hard to beat.

    “I don’t think individual investors or money managers can generally outperform the S&P 500,” said Ted Jenkin, a certified financial planner and the CEO and founder of oXYGen Financial, a financial advisory and wealth management firm based in Atlanta. Jenkin is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

    When does it pay to diversify?

    The greater a portfolio’s exposure to the S&P 500 index, the more the ups and downs of that index will affect its balance.

    That is why experts generally recommend a 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. That may be extended to 70/30 or even 80/20 if an investor’s time horizon allows for more risk.

    Moreover, exclusively investing in the S&P 500 on the stock side of a portfolio may be limiting if other areas of the market prove more successful in 2024.

    In 2023, the S&P 500 was up around 26% for the year, besting other strategies like a U.S. small cap index fund or an international stock index fund, noted Brian Spinelli, a certified financial planner and co-chief investment officer at Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors in Long Beach, California, which was No. 8 on CNBC’s FA 100 list in 2023.

    It may be tempting to throw out those other strategies and just go with the one that did really well last year, Spinelli noted.

    “But I wouldn’t go overboard,” Spinelli said. “You shouldn’t be 100% U.S. large cap and let it sit there and expect the same level of returns we’ve seen over the last five years.”

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  • Microsoft executive emails hacked by Russian intelligence group, company says

    Microsoft executive emails hacked by Russian intelligence group, company says

    Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft.

    CNBC

    Microsoft said in a Friday regulatory filing that a Russian intelligence group accessed some of the software maker’s top executives’ email accounts. Nobelium, the same group that breached government supplier SolarWinds in 2020, carried out the attack, which Microsoft detected last week, according to the company.

    It isn’t the first time Russian hackers have gained entry into Microsoft’s systems. State-sponsored attacks that can result in the dissemination of sensitive data becomes a greater risk during periods of armed conflict, and Russia’s war against Ukraine has been going on for almost two years now. On Thursday, Russia said Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes in multiple Russian locations.

    Microsoft’s announcement comes after new U.S. requirements for disclosing cybersecurity incidents went into effect. A Microsoft spokesperson said that while the company does not believe the attack had a material effect, it still wanted to honor the spirit of the rules.

    The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is “closely coordinating with Microsoft to gain additional insights into this incident and understand impacts so we can help protect other potential victims,” CISA executive assistant director for cybersecurity Eric Goldstein said in a statement to CNBC. “As noted in Microsoft’s announcement, at this time we are not aware of impacts to Microsoft customer environments or products.” 

    In late November, the group accessed “a legacy non-production test tenant account,” Microsoft’s Security Response Center wrote in the blog post. After gaining access, the group “then used the account’s permissions to access a very small percentage of Microsoft corporate email accounts, including members of our senior leadership team and employees in our cybersecurity, legal, and other functions, and exfiltrated some emails and attached documents,” the corporate unit wrote.

    The company’s senior leadership team, including Chief Financial Offer Amy Hood and President Brad Smith, regularly meets with CEO Satya Nadella.

    Microsoft said it has not found signs that Nobelium had accessed customer data, production systems or proprietary source code.

    The U.S. government and Microsoft consider Nobelium to be part of the Russian foreign intelligence service SVR. The hacking group was responsible for one of the most prolific breaches in U.S. history when it added malicious code to updates to SolarWinds’ Orion software, which some U.S. government agencies were using. Microsoft itself was ensnared in the hack.

    Nobelium, also known as APT29 or Cozy Bear, is a sophisticated hacking group that has attempted to breach the systems of U.S. allies and the Department of Defense. Microsoft also uses the name Midnight Blizzard to identify Nobelium.

    It was also implicated alongside another Russian hacking group in the 2016 breach of the Democratic National Committee’s systems.

    Last year, a vulnerability in Microsoft software allowed China-aligned hackers to access the email accounts of senior government officials, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, ahead of a critical U.S.-China meeting. The company’s “negligent cybersecurity practices” led to the attack, Sen. Ron Wyden, a Democrat from Oregon, wrote in a letter to CISA director Jen Easterly, and other federal officials.

    “We are continuing our investigation and will take additional actions based on the outcomes of this investigation and will continue working with law enforcement and appropriate regulators,” the Microsoft blog post said.

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation told CNBC that it knows about the attack and is working with federal partners to help.

    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:

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  • Russian hacking group accessed Microsoft executive emails, company says

    Russian hacking group accessed Microsoft executive emails, company says

    Microsoft Corp. said Friday a Russian hacking group illegally gained access to some of its top executives’ email accounts.

    In a regulatory filing, the software giant
    MSFT,
    +1.22%

    said a group called Nobelium was responsible for the attack.

    In late November, the group accessed “a legacy non-production test tenant account and [gained] a foothold, and then used the account’s permissions to access a very small percentage of Microsoft corporate email accounts, including members of our senior leadership team and employees in our cybersecurity, legal, and other functions, and exfiltrated some emails and attached documents,” Microsoft’s Security Response Center wrote in a blog post.

    Microsoft’s senior leadership team, which includes Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood and President Brad Smith, routinely meets with Chief Executive Satya Nadella.

    The company reported that there were no signs Nobelium had obtained customer data, production systems or proprietary source code.

    A Microsoft spokesperson provided this comment late Friday: “Our security team recently detected an attack on our corporate systems attributed to the Russian state-sponsored actor Midnight Blizzard. We immediately activated our response process to investigate, disrupt malicious activity, mitigate the attack, and deny the threat actor further access. The attack was not the result of a vulnerability in Microsoft products or services. To date, there is no evidence that the threat actor had any access to customer environments, production systems, source code, or AI systems. More information is available in our blog.”

    Nobelium, also known as APT29 or Cozy Bear, is a shadowy hacking group that attempted to crack the systems of the U.S. Defense Department and did breach the Democratic National Committee’s systems in 2016.

    Netskope Threat Labs, which tracks Nobelium, said the hacking group uses a variety of techniques to compromise accounts, including compromised Azure AD accounts to collect victim emails. “This hack underscores the importance of securing corporate email accounts, even those in non-production and test environments,” a Netskope spokesperson said. “Even if the email account isn’t regularly used or doesn’t contain anything sensitive, it can still be used to launch additional attacks.”

    Microsoft’s disclosure comes amid new U.S. requirements to report cybersecurity incidents.

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  • Microsoft tops Apple as world's most valuable public company

    Microsoft tops Apple as world's most valuable public company

    Apple CEO Tim Cook, left, and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.

    Reuters

    Microsoft ended Friday’s U.S. trading session as the most valuable publicly traded company, surpassing Apple after briefly topping the iPhone maker during intraday trading Thursday.

    Shares of Microsoft climbed more than 3% for the week, bringing the company’s market cap to $2.89 trillion, while Apple’s stock dropped by over 3%, lowering its valuation to $2.87 trillion.

    Redburn Atlantic Equities analyst James Cordwell downgraded Apple to neutral from buy on Wednesday, citing “little room for upside over the next few years” in iPhone growth and an “anticipated underwhelming March quarter.”

    Apple said Thursday that former Vice President Al Gore will retire from the company’s board next month after serving as a director since 2003.

    Microsoft, meanwhile, got a vote of confidence Thursday after discussing its artificial intelligence capabilities to developers at an event in San Francisco. Piper Sandler analysts told clients in a note that they were “encouraged by the momentum around the most mature AI products” and mentioned that GitHub website traffic has accelerated year over year for three months in a row. The analysts have the equivalent of a buy rating on Microsoft shares.

    Apple had been the most valuable public company for over a year, following brief periods when that distinction was held by Saudi Aramco and Microsoft.

    WATCH: The AI dark horse

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  • Top money managers pick the stocks they like for 2024 that aren't the Magnificent Seven

    Top money managers pick the stocks they like for 2024 that aren't the Magnificent Seven

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  • China and cybercriminals are targeting American AI companies, FBI Director Wray says

    China and cybercriminals are targeting American AI companies, FBI Director Wray says

    FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies during a Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on October 31, 2023.

    Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty Images

    American companies like Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI are currently driving the cutting edge of generative artificial intelligence development across the globe. However two of U.S.’s top national security leaders said that AI lead is under attack from foreign cybercriminals and nation-states like China.

    “Eighteen of the 20 most successful AI companies in the world are American,” FBI Director Christopher Wray told CNBC’s Morgan Brennan during a CNBC CEO Council virtual roundtable on Tuesday. “You can bet your bottom dollar that foreign adversaries, especially the Chinese, are actively targeting that innovation, that intellectual property.”

    Wray, who was joined at the virtual roundtable by General Paul Nakasone, commander of U.S. Cyber Command, said that generative AI is a “significant amplifier, both in terms of quantity and sophistication, of the threats that are already out there,” adding that AI tools are helping criminals “make their attacks more sophisticated, more credible, more pernicious.”

    “Generative AI, in the world of cyberattacks, is what I would describe as taking kind of junior varsity athletes and making them varsity,” Wray said. “But we are rapidly approaching a stage where the varsity adversaries are going to be able to find enough value from generative AI to take their game to the next level.”

    But while much of the discussion around AI in the cybersecurity space has centered on how AI is enhancing both attackers and defenders, Wray said the FBI is also focused on “defending American AI [research and development], American innovation in AI.”

    Nakasone, who also serves as the director of the National Security Agency and chief of the Central Security Service, said adversaries of the U.S. are using AI capabilities developed by American companies, making protecting that intellectual property crucial.

    “That tells me we have the lead in artificial intelligence; we want to maintain that lead,” Nakasone said. “This is our future; this is where we’re going to have a marked impact in terms of our economy, our national security, and other things.”

    The FBI and the U.S. Cyber Command, a command in the Department of Defense focused on cyberspace, are working closely on operations against a variety of adversaries, whether that’s nation-states like China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea, as well as criminal groups and other foreign actors.

    AI is set to play a key role in that defense, Nakasone said. In September 2023, the National Security Agency created a new entity called the AI Security Center to oversee the development and integration of AI capabilities within U.S. national security systems.

    “We knew that we had to be able to do this, in terms of being able to provide insights to understand what tradecraft or what techniques [adversaries] are going to try to steal your intellectual property,” said Nakasone, adding that similar efforts across cybersecurity have been successful.

    Both Nakasone and Wray stressed that as attackers and adversaries utilize these AI tools more, the best defense will be formed through partnerships, whether that is between government agencies like their own, the public and private sectors, and allies across the globe.

    “That kind of partnership will beat what the Chinese bring to the table every day of the week,” Wray said.

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  • Tech stocks just wrapped up one of their best years in past two decades after 2022 slump

    Tech stocks just wrapped up one of their best years in past two decades after 2022 slump

    The Nasdaq MarketSite in the Times Square neighborhood of New York, on Tuesday, May 31, 2022.

    Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Tech stocks rebounded from a disastrous 2022 and lifted the Nasdaq to one of its strongest years in the past two decades.

    After last year’s 33% plunge, the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished 2023 up 43%, its best year since 2020, which was narrowly higher. The gain was also just shy of the index’s performance in 2009. Those are the only two years with bigger gains dating back to 2003, when stocks were coming out of the dot-com crash.

    The Nasdaq is now just 6.5% below its record high it reached in November 2021.

    Across the industry, the big story this year was a return to risk, driven by the Federal Reserve halting its interest rate hikes and a more stable outlook on inflation. Companies also benefited from the cost-cutting measures they put in place starting late last year to focus on efficiency and bolstering profit margins.

    “Once you have a Fed that’s backing off, no mas, in terms of rate hikes, you can get back to the business of pricing companies properly — how much money do they make, what kind of multiple do you put on it,” Kevin Simpson, founder of Capital Wealth Planning, told CNBC’s “Halftime Report” on Tuesday. “It can continue into 2024.”

    While the tech industry got a big boost from the macro environment and the prospect of lower borrowing costs, the emergence of generative artificial intelligence drove excitement in the sector and pushed companies to invest in what’s viewed as the next big thing.

    Nvidia was the big winner in the AI rush. The chipmaker’s stock price soared 239% in 2023, as large cloud vendors and heavily funded startups snapped up the company’s graphics processing units (GPUs), which are needed to train and run advanced AI models. In the first three quarters of 2023, Nvidia generated $17.5 billion in net income, up more than sixfold from the prior year. Revenue in the latest quarter tripled.

    Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, said in March that AI’s “iPhone moment” has begun.

    “Startups are racing to build disruptive products and business models, while incumbents are looking to respond,” Huang said at Nvidia’s developers conference. “Generative AI has triggered a sense of urgency in enterprises worldwide to develop AI strategies.”

    ‘Relatively early stages’

    Consumers got to know about generative AI thanks to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which the Microsoft-backed company released in late 2022. The chatbot allowed users to type in a few words of text and start a conversation that could produce sophisticated responses in an instant.

    Developers started using generative AI to create tools for booking travel, creating marketing materials, enhancing customer service and even coding software. Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon touted their hefty investments in generative AI as they embedded the tech across product suites.

    Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said on his company’s earnings call in October that generative AI will likely produce tens of billions of dollars in revenue for Amazon Web Services in the next few years, adding that Amazon is using the models to forecast inventory, establish transportation routes for drivers, help third-party sellers create product pages and help advertisers generate images.

    “We have been surprised at the pace of growth in generative AI,” Jassy said. “Our generative AI business is growing very, very quickly. Almost by any measure it’s a pretty significant business for us already. And yet I would also say that companies are still in the relatively early stages.”

    Amazon shares climbed 81% in 2023, their best year since 2015.

    Microsoft investors enjoyed a rally this year unlike anything they’d seen since 2009, with shares of the software company climbing 58%.

    In addition to its investment in OpenAI, Microsoft integrated the technology into products like Bing, Office and Windows. Copilot became the brand for its broad generative AI service, and CEO Satya Nadella described Microsoft last month as “the Copilot company.”

    “Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI and subsequent product innovation through 2023 has resulted in a market dynamic shift,” Michael Turrin, a Wells Fargo analyst who recommends buying the stock, wrote in a Dec. 20 note to clients. “Many now view MSFT as the outright leader in the early AI wars (even ahead of market share leader AWS).”

    Meanwhile, Microsoft has been cranking out profits at a historic rate. In its latest earnings report, Microsoft said its gross margin exceeded 71% for the first time since 2013, when Steve Ballmer ran the company. Microsoft has found ways to more efficiently run its data centers and has lowered reliance on hardware, resulting in higher margins for the segment containing Windows, Xbox and search.

    Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (R) speaks as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (L) looks on during the OpenAI DevDay event on November 06, 2023 in San Francisco, California. Altman delivered the keynote address at the first ever Open AI DevDay conference. 

    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

    After Nvidia, the biggest stock pop among mega-cap tech companies was in shares of Meta, which jumped almost 200%. Nvidia and Meta were by far the two top performers in the S&P 500.

    Meta’s rally was sparked in February, when CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who founded the company in 2004, said 2023 would be the company’s “year of efficiency” after the stock plummeted 64% in 2022 due largely to three straight quarters of declining revenue.

    The company cut more than 20,000 jobs, proving to Wall Street it was serious about streamlining its expenses. Then growth returned as Facebook picked up market share in digital advertising. For the third quarter, Meta recorded expansion of 23%, its sharpest increase in two years. 

    Where are the IPOs?

    Like Meta, Uber wasn’t around during the dot-com crash. The ride-hailing company was founded in 2009, during the depths of the financial crisis, and became a tech darling in the ensuing years, when investors favored innovation and growth over profit.

    Uber went public in 2019, but for a long time battled the notion that it could never be profitable because so much of its revenue went to paying drivers. But the economic model finally began to work late last year, for both its rideshare and food delivery businesses.

    That all allowed Uber to achieve a major investor milestone earlier this month, when the stock was added to the S&P 500. Members of the index must have positive earnings in the most recent quarter and over the prior four quarters in total, according to S&P’s rules. Uber reported net income of $221 million on $9.29 billion in revenue for its third quarter, and in the past four quarters altogether, it generated more than $1 billion in profit.

    Uber shares climbed to a record this week and jumped 149% for the year. The stock, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, finished the year as the sixth-biggest gainer in the S&P 500.

    Despite the tech rally in 2023, there was a dearth of new opportunities for public investors during the year. After a dismal 2022 for tech IPOs, very few names came to market in 2023. The three most notable IPOs — Instacart, Arm and Klaviyo — all took place during a one-week stretch in September.

    For most late-stage companies in the IPO pipeline, more work needs to be done. The public market remains unwelcoming for cash-burning companies that have yet to show they can be sustainably profitable, which is a problem for the many startups that raised mountains of cash during the zero-interest days of 2020 and 2021.

    Even for profitable software and internet companies, multiples have contracted, meaning the valuation startups achieved in the private market will require many of them to take a haircut when going public.

    Byron Lichtenstein, a managing director at venture firm Insight Partners, called 2023 “the great reset.” He said the companies best positioned for IPOs are unlikely to debut until the back half of 2024 at the earliest. In the meantime, they’ll be making necessary preparations, such as hiring independent board members and spending on IT and accounting to make sure they’re ready.

    “You have this dynamic of where expectations were in ’21 and the prices that were paid then,” Lichtenstein said in an interview. “We’re still dealing with a little bit of that hangover.”

    —CNBC’s Jonathan Vanian contributed to this report

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