Mark Zuckerberg posing with UFC president Dana White during a UFC Fight Night event.
Jeff Bottari | Ufc | Getty Images
Mark Zuckerberg’s preference for mixed martial arts and water sports is not only a personal hazard, it’s also a risk to investors.
In its annual financial report for 2023 filed Friday, Meta disclosed a new risk factor that pertains to Zuckerberg and any other executives engaged in potentially dangerous hobbies.
“Mr. Zuckerberg and certain other members of management participate in various high-risk activities, such as combat sports, extreme sports, and recreational aviation, which carry the risk of serious injury and death,” Meta said. “If Mr. Zuckerberg were to become unavailable for any reason, there could be a material adverse impact on our operations.”
Zuckerberg — Meta’s founder, CEO and biggest shareholder — has a well-documented interest in MMA and extreme sports such as hydrofoiling, a pastime he showed off in patriotic fashion.
His fighting hobby also made headlines last year as part of an online spat with Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The tech executives, two of the world’s four richest people, have long butted heads on matters related to artificial intelligence and are direct rivals now that Musk owns social media platform X.
Zuckerberg and Musk had agreed to take their rivalry into the cage for an MMA match. For various reasons, the fight was eventually called off. Each accused the other of bailing.
In response to a Morning Brew post on Threads about the new risk factors, Zuckerberg posted a GIF stating, “High risk = high reward.”
Meta shares soared Friday after the company reported a tripling of fourth-quarter profit and issued its first-ever dividend.
Check out the companies making headlines after the bell . Amazon — Shares gained nearly 10% after the e-commerce giant reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ expectations . Amazon reported earnings of $1 per share on revenue of $169.96 billion, higher than the 80 cents per share on $166.21 billion expected by analysts, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Meta — The technology stock soared more than 14% after posting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings of $5.33 per share on revenue of $40.11 billion. That exceeded the earnings of $4.96 per share on $39.18 billion in revenue LSEG had expected. The company also declared its first-ever dividend payment , pegged at 50 cents. Deckers Outdoor — The footwear stock popped 4.7% after posting fiscal third-quarter earnings of $15.11 per share, exceeding the $11.48 expected by FactSet. Deckers’ revenue of $1.56 billion also surpassed the $1.45 billion LSEG had forecast. Meanwhile, the company announced that CEO Dave Powers will be retiring on Aug. 1, with its Chief Commercial Officer Stefano Caroti stepping into the role. Skechers — The sneaker manufacturer tumbled 10% after reporting mixed fourth-quarter results and issuing light guidance for the full year. Skechers is calling for 2024 revenue of $8.6 billion to $8.8 billion and earnings of $3.65 to $3.85 per share. Analysts polled by LSEG called for $8.9 billion in revenue and earnings of $4.18 per share this year. Clorox — The consumer products manufacturer jumped 7.4% after revenue for the fiscal second quarter surpassed expectations. Clorox posted $1.99 billion, topping the $1.8 billion consensus revenue estimate from analysts polled by LSEG. Coursera — Shares of the online course provider added as much as 4.5% after reporting earnings of 6 cents per share. Analysts had expected the company to break even on per share basis, according to LSEG. Meanwhile, Coursera reported revenue of $168.9 million, higher than the $164.1 million consensus. The company also guided for full-year revenue above analysts’ estimates. Microchip Technology — Shares fell 2.2% after the semiconductor product manufacturer posted a weak outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter. Microchip also reported revenue of $1.77 billion for the fiscal third quarter, in line with analysts’ expectations, per LSEG. Columbia Sportswear — The sportswear manufacturer lost 6% after posting fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that disappointed analysts’ expectations. Columbia also forecast first-quarter and full-year guidance below what FactSet had anticipated. Apple — The tech titan slipped 2% despite a fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue beat . Apple posted earnings of $2.18 per share versus the $2.10 estimated by LSEG, while its revenue of $119.58 billion also exceeded the $117.91 billion analysts had forecast. But a 13% decline in China sales may have sent shares sliding lower. — CNBC’s Alexander Harring and Darla Mercado contributed reporting.
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO, Meta Platforms, in July 2021.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Meta beat on earnings and revenue in its fourth-quarter report on Thursday and announced its first-ever dividend payment. The stock jumped more than 10% in extended trading.
Earnings: $5.33 per share. That may not compare with the $4.96 per share expected by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv.
Revenue: $40.1 billion. That may not compare with the $39.18 billion expected by LSEG
Wall Street will also be looking at these key user numbers:
Daily active users (DAUs): $2.11 billion vs. 2.08 billion expected, according to StreetAccount
Monthly active users (MAUs): $3.07 billion vs. 3.06 billion expected, according to StreetAccount
Average revenue per user (ARPU): $13.12 vs. $12.81 expected, according to StreetAccount
Meta said it has declared its first dividend, which is pegged at 50 cents. The company also announced a $50 billion share buyback.
Revenue jumped 25% in the quarter from $32.2 billion a year earlier, the fastest rate of growth for any period since mid-2021. Meanwhile, the company’s cost and expenses decreased 8% year-over-year to $23.73 billion.
The company’s operating margin more than doubled from a year earlier to 41%, a clear sign that the company’s cost-cutting measures are bolstering profitability.
Net income more than tripled to $14 billion, or $5.33 per share, from $4.65 billion, or $1.76 per share, a year earlier.
The company said that sales in its Reality Labs unit passed $1 billion in the first quarter, and recorded $4.65 billion in losses.
“We had a good quarter as our community and business continue to grow,” Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a statement. “We’ve made a lot of progress on our vision for advancing AI and the metaverse.”
Meta said it expects first-quarter sales to be in the range of $34.5 billion to $37 billion. The company said that its expects its 2024 expenses to be in the range of of $94 billion to $99 billion.
(L-R) Shou Zi Chew, CEO of TikTok, Linda Yaccarino, CEO of X, and Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee at the Dirksen Senate Office Building on January 31, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Alex Wong | Getty Images
“We could regulate you out of business if we wanted to,” a frustrated Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C. told Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, X CEO Linda Yaccarino and other top social media company leaders Wednesday during a Senate hearing.
Tillis and other lawmakers accused the tech executives of failing to protect children from sexual exploitation on their respective social media platforms. The hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee was tense and frequently emotional, held in a committee room filled to capacity with guests, many of them the parents of children targeted by online predators.
In one memorable exchange, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., compelled Zuckerberg to stand up and apologize directly to parents who believed that Meta’s Facebook and Instagram apps had contributed to the death of their children.
“No one should have to go through the things that your families have suffered,” Zuckerberg told the parents.
Yet overall, the hearing featured more raw emotion than it did imminent regulation. This reality was visible in the fact that both Meta and Snap shares were relatively flat in after-hours trading on Wednesday, at $391 and $15.94, respectively.
It appears Wall Street doesn’t expect the tech firms to take any significant financial hits to their businesses from Congress, at least not yet.
To be sure, both Republican and Democratic senators were united in their conviction that social media firms are failing the American public and directly harming young people.
Still, it takes time for bills to get passed, and all of these social media firms are still getting slammed for child-safety related issues, which could keep the topic fresh in the minds of politicians.
Child-safety and anti-big tech advocates are optimistic that the senate hearing will help kickstart efforts to regulate social media firms via proposed bills like the Stop CSAM Act and the Kids Online Safety Act, or KOSA.
But lawmakers have grilled tech CEOs in the past over issues related to antitrust and data privacy blunders, and they haven’t been able to pass legislation that would change the way the companies operate.
“I think we have to understand that there should be an inherent motivation for you to get this right,” Tillis said. “Or Congress will make a decision that could potentially put you out of business.”
But shortly after Tillis mentioned the idea of tough regulation, he pivoted to a commonly held belief by the pro-business community that over regulation will benefit foreign companies.
“If we ultimately destroy your ability to create value, and drive you out of business, that evil people will find another way to get to these children,” Tillis said.
Lawmakers largely focused on Meta during the hearing, given the company’s enormous user base, high-profile data privacy blunders, and recent lawsuits, including the one recently filed by New Mexico’s attorney general that alleged the profitable company isn’t adequately safeguarding its young users from sexual predators.
The penalties for these lawsuits could be high for the company, depending on their outcome. Indeed, the social networking giant paid $725 million in 2022 to settle a class action lawsuit stemming from its Cambridge Analytica scandal. That same year, its shares were in free-fall, due in part to a weak economy and the effects of the Apple iOS privacy update that made it more difficult for companies to track users across the web.
For now, Meta’s business continues to rebound after its disastrous 2022, with its advertising business partially lifted by what the company’s finance chief has previously said are unnamed “Chinese retailers.”
Advertising experts and analysts believe these retailers include the fast-rising startups Temu and Shein, two companies that U.S. lawmakers have previously complained are unfairly benefiting from certain trade rules because of their connections to China.
Lawmakers have increasingly sounded alarms over Chinese companies, and during this hearing, peppered TikTok’s Chew with questions about the social network’s Chinese owner, ByteDance.
Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., in particular, interrogated Chew about China, even asking the executive whether he has “ever been a member of the Chinese Communist Party.”
Google CEO Sundar Pichai speaks at a panel at the CEO Summit of the Americas hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Los Angeles on June 9, 2022.
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images
Results were good, but not good enough.
That’s Wall Street’s reaction to quarterly results on Tuesday from Alphabet and Microsoft. Both companies reported revenue and earnings that exceeded estimates, yet the stocks sold off after hours, a drop that carried over into Wednesday’s trading session.
In investor speak, the stocks were priced for perfection. Prior to earnings, Alphabet was up 56% for the year and climbed to a fresh high last week, exceeding the prior record from late 2021, the peak of the tech boom. Microsoft was up 70% over the past 12 months, also reaching a fresh high recently and surpassing Apple as the most valuable publicly traded company.
The companies generated excitement last year by riding the artificial intelligence wave, and were also lauded by shareholders for their dramatic cost-cutting efforts, which included eliminating thousands of jobs.
In the weeks heading into their earnings reports, investors were buying as if they expected positive surprises. They were left disappointed and nitpicked the numbers.
Alphabet on Tuesday reported 13% revenue growth, the fastest rate of expansion since early 2022. Sales of $86.31 billion topped the average estimate of $85.33 billion, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Earnings per share of $1.64 beat estimates by 5 cents.
Revenue at Microsoft increased 18% to $62.02 billion, topping the $61.12 billion average analyst estimate. EPS of $2.93 was 15 cents above consensus.
Both companies also beat expectations in their cloud businesses, with Google Cloud reporting 25% growth and Microsoft’s larger Azure and other cloud services expanding 30%.
The one disappointment from Alphabet was in Google’s ad business, which delivered revenue of $65.52 billion, trailing analysts’ estimates of $65.94 billion, according to StreetAccount. Within ads, YouTube came in just shy of expectations.
Stifel analysts, who recommend buying the stock, said in a quick-take report on Tuesday that Alphabet produced “healthy advertising results, but not enough.”
Brian Wieser, an analyst at media and advertising consultancy Madison and Wall, said the market has unrealistic expectations for Google given its size and dominance.
“In my general conversations with public market investors and sell-side analysts, few have a correct view of the advertising market,” Wieser said. “Many think that growth can continue at double-digit levels for the fastest-growing companies for much longer a period of time than is realistic to expect.”
Alphabet shares dropped more than 6% Wednesday. Microsoft’s decline was less severe, with the stock falling less than 2%.
Microsoft’s outlook was a bit light, overshadowing the earnings and revenue beat. The company called for fiscal third-quarter sales between $60 billion and $61 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG had expected $60.93 billion.
Shares of chipmaker AMD also dropped despite better-than-expected revenue numbers and profit that met estimates. The stock, which is up 137% in the past year on excitement about its artificial intelligence processors, fell almost 6% after the announcement.
Attention now turns to Thursday, when Amazon, Apple and Meta all report quarterly results. Similar to Alphabet and Microsoft, Meta shares have climbed to a record this month. Apple hit its all-time high in December, while Amazon remains about 6% below its record from 2022.
— CNBC’s Jonathan Vanian, Jordan Novet and Kif Leswing contributed to this report.
People walk through the Financial District by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on the last day of trading for the year on December 29, 2023 in New York City.
A bull market — by two definitions — is here. Last year, the S&P 500 rose more than 20% from its most recent low. As of Friday, it crossed another bull market threshold when it surpassed its previous high.
For investors who want to get in on the action, the good news investing in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 index is an easily accessible strategy.
But experts say it also deserves a word of caution: Past performance is not indicative of future returns. And while the S&P 500 was a clear winner in 2023 — finishing the year up 26% — it may not be the strategy that comes out ahead at the close of 2024.
The S&P 500 includes around 500 large cap equity stocks. The index is a market-cap weighted index, which means each company’s weighting is based on its market capitalization, or the total value of all outstanding shares.
Information technology represents the largest sector, with 28.9% of the index. A recent rally of big tech names has helped push the index to its recent highs.
Vanguard in 1975 created the first index mutual fund that tracked the S&P 500. Vanguard founder John Bogle was famously a proponent of investing in a broad index fund.
“Simply buy a Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fund or a total stock market index fund,” Bogle wrote in his book, “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing.”
“Then, once you have bought your stocks, get out of the casino — and stay out,” he wrote. “Just hold the market portfolio forever.”
For stock investors who want to keep their strategies simple, experts say the approach can work.
“Among the better decisions people can make is starting with an index-based fund tracking the S&P 500 because it works,” Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, recently told CNBC.com.
Over time, passive strategies have shown better returns than actively managed funds. Moreover, the cost of those funds is much lower compared to active strategies. Together, that combination is hard to beat.
“I don’t think individual investors or money managers can generally outperform the S&P 500,” said Ted Jenkin, a certified financial planner and the CEO and founder of oXYGen Financial, a financial advisory and wealth management firm based in Atlanta. Jenkin is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.
The greater a portfolio’s exposure to the S&P 500 index, the more the ups and downs of that index will affect its balance.
That is why experts generally recommend a 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. That may be extended to 70/30 or even 80/20 if an investor’s time horizon allows for more risk.
Moreover, exclusively investing in the S&P 500 on the stock side of a portfolio may be limiting if other areas of the market prove more successful in 2024.
In 2023, the S&P 500 was up around 26% for the year, besting other strategies like a U.S. small cap index fund or an international stock index fund, noted Brian Spinelli, a certified financial planner and co-chief investment officer at Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors in Long Beach, California, which was No. 8 on CNBC’s FA 100 list in 2023.
It may be tempting to throw out those other strategies and just go with the one that did really well last year, Spinelli noted.
“But I wouldn’t go overboard,” Spinelli said. “You shouldn’t be 100% U.S. large cap and let it sit there and expect the same level of returns we’ve seen over the last five years.”
Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook Inc.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Former Meta operating chief Sheryl Sandberg is leaving the company’s board of directors.
“With a heart filled with gratitude and a mind filled with memories, I let the Meta board know that I will not stand for reelection this May,” Sandberg wrote in a Facebook post on Wednesday.
Sandberg, 54, joined Facebook in 2008 as Mark Zuckerberg’s top deputy after spending about seven years at Google. In 2012, she became a board member at the company. During her tenure, Facebook rose from a highflying startup to become one of the most valuable companies in the world, topping a $1 trillion market cap at its peak in 2021.
Sandberg announced her departure from Meta in mid-2022, following multiple controversies that dogged the company and sullied its reputation among users, lawmakers and investors. Most notably, Facebook was central to the spread of disinformation ahead of the 2016 election and during the early days of the Covid pandemic in 2020. The company has also been in the subject of antitrust investigations and was scrutinized in Sandberg’s waning days for its insufficient efforts to combat hate on its platform.
When Sandberg stepped down as Meta COO in June 2022, she was replaced by Javier Olivan, who had been serving as Meta’s chief growth officer.
Since leaving Meta, Sandberg has dedicated much of her time on her LeanIn.org nonprofit, which focuses on empowering women tin the workplace, and related projects.
“I wanted my new chapter to be able to really make a difference,” Sandberg told CNBC Make It in August. “We’ve been in development on this since I was at Meta, but being able to have the time to put into [this launch] and to really be … a bigger part of this has meant a lot to me.”
Shortly after Sandberg’s post, Zuckerberg responded with a short reply.
“Thank you Sheryl for the extraordinary contributions you have made to our company and community over the years,” Zuckerberg wrote. “Your dedication and guidance have been instrumental in driving our success and I am grateful for your unwavering commitment to me and Meta over the years. I look forward to this next chapter together!”
Meta technology chief Adam Bosworth wrote, “Amazing run Sheryl, thank you so much for everything you did for all of us and also for me personally.”
Meta’s board consists of Zuckerberg, who serves as chairman, as well as former PayPal Executive Vice President Peggy Alford, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, Dropbox CEO Drew Houston, former McKinsey & Company senior partner Nancy Killefer, former U.S. deputy secretary of the treasury Robert M. Kimmitt, DoorDash CEO Tony Xu and Tracey T. Travis, a former CFO at Estée Lauder.
Here’s the full text of Sandberg’s post:
With a heart filled with gratitude and a mind filled with memories, I let the Meta board know that I will not stand for reelection this May. After I left my role as COO, I remained on the board to help ensure a successful transition. Under Mark’s leadership, Javi Olivan, Justin Osofsky, Nicola Mendelsohn, and their teams have proven beyond a doubt that the Meta business is strong and well-positioned for the future, so this feels like the right time to step away. Going forward, I will serve as an advisor to the company, and I will always be there to help the Meta teams.
Serving as Facebook’s – and then Meta’s – COO for 14 ½ years and a board member for 12 years has been the opportunity of a lifetime. I will always be grateful to Mark for believing in me and for his partnership and friendship; he is that truly once-in-a-generation visionary leader and he is equally amazing as a friend who stays by your side through the good times and the bad. I will always be grateful to my colleagues and teammates at Meta for all the years of working side by side and all they taught me. And I am particularly grateful to my fellow Meta board members for their lasting friendships, the guidance they provided me for so many years, and their stewardship of products that mean so much to people all over the world.
There are plenty of stocks other than the so-called “Magnificent Seven” that are appealing right now, top money managers told CNBC on Thursday. The mega-cap tech stocks that make up the ” Magnificent Seven ” — Apple , Alphabet , Meta , Microsoft , Amazon , Nvidia and Tesla — each gained at least 48% last year. They make up about a quarter of the S & P 500’s total market share. While you can still have high growth in those stocks, there should be a broadening out of the rally and other stocks that should do well, said Bryn Talkington, managing partner at Requisite Capital Management, in a CNBC Pro Talks interview with Bob Pisani. For one, software stocks such as Salesforce are adjacent to the Magnificent Seven, have done well and have a “very long trajectory,” she said. Outside of that, she likes the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) to get that broad access. “We bought it this year, because we’re saying, ‘Hey, these are cheap stocks. We’re going to own 500 large-cap stocks, we just treat them equally,’” Talkington said. Meanwhile, Kevin Simpson, founder and chief investment officer at Capital Wealth Planning, likes “old school” technology names such as Broadcom , Cisco and IBM . “They have made acquisitions that bring them into the 21st century,” he said. “While you’re waiting for things to have that breadth, getting a very solid, consistent and increasing dividend is something that makes us very comfortable as shareholders.” Talkington also likes dividend names, such as energy stocks. One name on her list is Diamondback Energy . “This company is a juggernaut of … free cash flow yield,” she said. The energy names Simpson owns are Chevron and ConocoPhillips .
Mark Zuckerberg cashed in on his company’s 2023 stock rally in a big way — selling nearly $428 million worth of shares in Meta Platforms Inc. over the final two months of the year.
The sales were in accordance with a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by Zuckerberg in July and saw him capitalize on Meta’s rebounding stock price, which soared 194.1% in 2023 — and nearly threefold since it hit a seven-year low in November 2022. By comparison, the S&P 500 SPX
and the Nasdaq Composite COMP
indexes gained 24.2% and 43.4%, respectively, in 2023.
The moves also broke a two-year hiatus, dating back to November 2021, during which Zuckerberg did not sell any of his stock in the Facebook parent company, according to Bloomberg, which first reported the news. Zuckerberg, who owns roughly 13% of Meta, is ranked the seventh-richest person in the world with a net worth of $125 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Nasdaq-listed Meta shares, which fell 0.5% on Wednesday to $344.47, are now roughly 11% off their all-time closing high of $382.18 from September 2021.
Representatives for Meta could not immediately be reached for comment.
Two centuries ago one of the first economists, David Ricardo coined the still famous investment adage “Let your profits run (on).” Makes sense. All else equal, one would prefer to own or buy stocks in uptrends, and there have been some exceptional uptrends this year. Thirty-six Russell 1000 stocks are up more than 100%. What would Ricardo have done with his winners if he had options to trade? Here’s my take. Let ’em ride: Several of 2023’s best-performing stocks were grossly undervalued at the beginning of the year. In some cases for reasons that were easily identifiable both then and now. Arguably the best example is Meta . At its November 2022 low Meta traded down to $90 a share, less than 7 times the $13.71 in adjusted eps the company earned in FY2021. Although revenue growth paused in 2022 the company had a very strong balance sheet and had historically been a free cash flow generating powerhouse. The problem was that Mark Zuckerberg was losing billions, throwing money at his vision for the metaverse, and investors were concerned it had become an obsession taking precedence over the best course for the business. Many investors were quite vocal about their displeasure, but voicing their concerns was all they could do because Zuckerberg controls more than 50% of the voting rights through a special class of shares. So while investors recognized the company could deliver massive earnings and free cash flow, they were afraid Zuckerberg had gone off the reservation. Eventually, though he did elect to moderate his spending on his ambitious visions. The company has returned to record profitability and free cash flow generation and the stock has responded in kind, up 140% since the November 2022 low. While certainly not as cheap as it was a year ago, Meta remains cheap at not because it is trading at 20 times FY2024 EPS estimates of $18 a share, but because that represents 20% annual EPS growth. The stock sports topline growth, substantial margins, a strong balance sheet, substantial free cash flow, and a moat around its business. META’s biggest threat is itself, and as long as management doesn’t go back down the rabbit hole, it is a poster child for growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Other big winners for 2023 that remain well positioned for 2024 as long-term rates have dropped while unemployment has remained low include Vertiv Holding , Builders Firstsource , Topbuild Corp , and PulteHome . Nvidia and Uber are too, even despite the huge runs they’ve had at reasonable valuation given their respective growth rates, but bear in mind that some investors may have deferred taking gains in these and other large winners for tax reasons. Due to this and their high betas, any market choppiness in the market generally will affect these names more severely. It’s time to hedge some of those gains (or take profits): The second best-performing stock in the Russell 1000 for 2023 is Coinbase (COIN) . As of year-end 2022, COIN was down more than 90% from its November 2021 peak. Investors shunned the stock as cryptocurrencies had plummeted. Bitcoin, the most well-known cryptocurrency, had fallen more than 76% from peak to trough, and it would be reasonable to assume that if cryptocurrencies continued to perform badly, speculators would trade them less often which would hurt the business of a crypto exchange. It did. Revenues fell nearly 60% year-over-year between FY2021 and FY2022. The company, which had made $21 in adjusted EPS in 2021, swung to a $6.63 a share loss. Unsurprisingly, as cryptocurrencies rebounded in 2023, so did COIN. What’s surprising though is the degree to which it rebounded. Where bitcoin rose > 150%, COIN is up over 400%. Some businesses are indeed highly leveraged to prices for other goods or assets. Gold miners’ prices are levered to the price of gold, oil companies to the price of oil, chip makers like MU to the price of NAND and DRAM and cryptocurrency miners and exchanges to the prices of the cryptocurrency. The issue I have with Coinbase is that despite the sharp increase in cryptocurrency prices, revenues and earnings have not rebounded in quite the same way. FY2024 revenue expectations of 2.9 billion are more than 60% below the company’s zenith in 2021 of $7.8 billion. The company is expected to report FY2023 losses of 89 cents share. Street estimates are not forecasting a return to profitability until 2027. Why not? How is it that cryptocurrency prices can rebound so sharply and the company cannot return to the same level of profitability they saw in 2020 when the price of bitcoin for example was far lower than it is today? If I believed that Coinbase could reliably generate $4.7 billion in net income as it did in 2021 this thing would be ludicrously cheap, but it feels as if the landscape is shifting beneath the company’s feet. Other companies I place in this category include Roku and SoFi . The single best-performing stock in the Russell 1000 for 2023 is Affirm , up nearly 420% year-to-date. Affirm Holdings is a popular buy now, pay later fintech company. How popular? It’s growing topline at greater than 20%. Its popularity is understandable. In some cases, it offers purchases at zero interest, considerably more attractive than using a high-interest credit card. Additionally, these loans aren’t currently reported to TransUnion or Equifax, so the impact of taking the loan on the borrower’s credit score may be reduced, and in any case, borrowers may wish to preserve available credit lines for other uses. Likely, the company’s partnerships with big online outlets such as Amazon and Walmart are going to show substantial gains during this holiday shopping season. The market opportunity is also substantial relative to the company’s size. At $15 billion in market capitalization, Affirm is still tiny. To put things in perspective, the combined market capitalization of Visa and Mastercard is nearly $1 trillion. Paypal is nearly $70 billion. The problem here is that the idea of buy-now-pay-later isn’t proprietary. Affirm is likely to face competition from other payment players. Charge-offs remain low, but we know that consumer credit balances have been rising steadily and are now at all-time highs. Auto loan delinquencies have also been rising. If the other large credit agencies TransUnion or Equifax eventually join Experian and begin tracking these loans, that would eliminate a perceived benefit by consumers. Ultimately though it comes down to a question of whether I would prefer to own money-losing Affirm based on their topline growth, or profitable Paypal for 1/10th the multiple betting they’ll catch on to the portions of Affirm’s business that are growing. If you own, but don’t want to sell, consider purchasing the March $45/$35 put spread as a particle hedge, as illustrated below. The answer is simple, I’d much rather own PayPal (or the major credit card companies). Other names I place in this category include Palantir Technologies . Here too is a company that is growing, but it’s unclear whether the growth targets may be a bit ambitious. Palantir relies heavily on government contracts, greater than 56% by revenue. Government business can be great, but it does introduce concentration risk as that segment of their revenue share indicates. One final thing: hedge when you can, not when you have to. As I write this the VIX Index closed at 12.45, only narrowly higher than the 12.07 low for the year on December 12th while the S & P 500 is just slightly below its record high set on January 3, 2022. DISCLOSURES: THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
A flag outside the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission headquarters in Washington, Feb. 23, 2022.
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Regulators around the world from Europe to Asia ramped up efforts to bring about formal laws for digital currencies in 2023 — but it was the U.S. that took some of the harshest legal actions against major players in the industry.
In a year that saw crypto heavyweight Binance ordered to pay more than $4 billion to U.S. authorities and its former CEO’s guilty plea, along with high-profile lawsuits against five crypto companies by the Securities and Exchange Commission, regulators overseas have been equally busy both adopting new legislation — and pushing for more — to rein in the sector’s bad actors.
Here’s the state of play globally for crypto regulation and enforcement in 2023 — and a look at what to expect in 2024.
The U.S. has proven to be one of the most active enforcers of penalties and legal action against crypto companies this year, as authorities looked to counter bad practices in the industry following the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire — including his FTX exchange and sister firm Alameda Research.
“To be clear, in some cases — like FTX — enforcement was necessary,” said Renato Mariotti, a former prosecutor in the U.S. Justice Department’s Securities and Commodities Fraud Section. “But U.S. enforcement actions against market participants that are more focused on compliance are questionable and the result of the U.S. ‘regulation by enforcement’ approach.”
While many regions have passed laws with potentially tough penalties, the U.S. is still the only country that has actively taken action against large-scale crypto companies and projects. Thus far, the U.S. has led that campaign against crypto firms by enforcement and has, by far, been the most punishing of regulators when it comes to penalties and fines.
“Other countries have a comprehensive regulatory framework in place. We don’t,” Mariotti told CNBC. “As a result, issues that should be determined by legislation or regulation are instead litigated.”
Indeed, in the absence of hard-and-fast rules from Capitol Hill, the SEC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Department of Justice, and Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCen), have worked in parallel to police the space, in a sort of patch-quilt version of regulation-by-enforcement.
Richard Levin, a partner at Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough who has represented clients before the SEC, CFTC, and Congress, tells CNBC that these agencies have been some of the most active enforcers around the world concerning the regulation of digital assets and cryptocurrencies.
“These agencies have provided guidance to the industry on how digital assets and cryptocurrencies must be offered and sold, traded, and held by custodians,” said Levin, who has been involved in the fintech sector for 30 years.
“However, much of their work has involved providing guidance to the industry through enforcement actions,” continued Levin.
Since 2019, Justice’s Market Integrity and Major Frauds Unit has charged cryptocurrency fraud cases involving over $2 billion in intended financial losses to investors worldwide.
In its annual report summing up enforcement actions, the CFTC noted that nearly half of all cases in 2023 involved conduct related to digital asset commodities. Meanwhile, the SEC highlighted that 2023 was notable for its enforcement of “crypto-related misconduct, including fraud schemes, unregistered crypto assets and platforms, and illegal celebrity touting.” Since 2014, the SEC has brought more than 200 actions related to crypto asset and cyber enforcement.
The most stringent cases played out in the first half of the year when the SEC accused Binance and Coinbase of engaging in illegal securities dealing in a pair of lawsuits.
Most notably, the SEC alleges that at least 13 crypto assets available to Coinbase customers — including Solana’s sol, Cardano’s ada, and Protocol Labs’ filecoin — should be considered securities, meaning they’d need to be subject to strict transparency and disclosure requirements.
In Binance’s case, the SEC went a step further. In addition to securities law violations, the company and its co-founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao were also accused of commingling customer assets with company funds.
Concerning criminal enforcement, Damian Williams, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, has been leading some of Justice’s highest-profile crypto prosecutions, including the monthlong trial of Bankman-Fried, the disgraced FTX founder. In November, a jury found the former FTX chief executive guilty of all seven criminal counts against him following a few hours of deliberation.
But crypto companies have begun to push back, with some threatening to decamp from the U.S. entirely should this dynamic of policing by enforcement continue.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong condemned the SEC’s actions against the exchange and suggested the company may be forced to move its headquarters overseas. Armstrong later walked back the threat of relocating abroad, but Coinbase and other major crypto firms have still begun to invest more heavily in their international operations.
Crypto market participants nevertheless hope that the spate of legal challenges brought to crypto companies in 2023 will bring clarity in the form of new regulations.
“Clearer regulatory frameworks and stance from regulators globally have provided a sense of legitimacy and security, encouraging more widespread participation in the bitcoin market,” Alyse Killeen, managing partner of Stillmark Capital, told CNBC.
The crypto industry saw the most legislative progress on crypto laws in the U.S. this year, with one of the competing digital asset bills making it past multiple House committees for the first time.
Even as U.S. lawmakers take steps toward crypto legislation, there remains no law in the U.S. tailored specifically for the industry. Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough’s Levin tells CNBC it’s unlikely that we’ll see much progress in a presidential election year and with a divided federal government.
He argues that even without rules on crypto from lawmakers, routine complaints that U.S. regulators are not providing guidance to the industry are without merit.
According to Levin, “The SEC, the CFTC and FinCEN routinely provide informal guidance on the regulation of digital assets and cryptocurrencies.”
“The SEC even went so far as to provide a framework for the analysis of digital assets and cryptocurrencies. The SEC also created a fake digital asset (Hosey Coin) that gave advice to the FinTech community on how not to launch a digital asset,” Levin added.
“Some members of the industry forget the SEC is relying on laws that were written when American football players wore leather helmets, and the SEC must apply those laws to the FinTech industry,” he said.
Despite crypto’s recent fading buzz, Killeen of Stillmark Capital doesn’t expect regulators to become fatigued by crypto in 2024. In the same time year that two of crypto’s leading figures were sent to jail, shares of Coinbase — and prices of digital currencies like bitcoin and ether — have rallied sharply.
Since the start of this year, Coinbase’s stock price has surged more than 400%. Bitcoin and ether, meanwhile, have both roughly doubled in price. That’s as investors anticipate that approval for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund by the SEC may be around the corner.
The European Union looks set to apply its Markets in Crypto-Assets legislation, which is aimed at taming the “Wild West” of the crypto industry, in full force starting next year.
The law, initially proposed in 2019 as a response to Meta’s digital currency project Diem, formerly known as Libra, aimed to clean up fraud, money laundering and other illicit financing in the crypto space, and stamp out the sector’s bad actors more broadly.
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It also sought to tackle a perceived threat from so-called stablecoins, or blockchain-based tokens that serve as a representation of government money but are backed by private companies. Stablecoins are effectively digital currencies that are pegged to the value of fiat currencies like the dollar.
While tether and Circle’s USDC aren’t perceived as “systemic” assets capable of disrupting financial stability, a private stablecoin from a massive company like Meta, Visa or Mastercard could pose a bigger threat and potentially undermine sovereign currencies, in several EU central bankers’ eyes.
The U.S.’s dominant role in global finance and its focus on consumer protection plays a crucial role in its leading position in crypto regulation enforcement. However, the landscape is evolving, and other jurisdictions are steadily enhancing their regulatory and enforcement frameworks in crypto.
Braden Perry
Former federal enforcement attorney and current partner at
Part of the EU’s framework for crypto is aimed at tackling threats — particularly that of the euro being undermined — by making it impossible for issuers to mint stablecoins backed by currencies other than the euro, like the U.S. dollar, once they meet the threshold of more than 1 million transactions per day.
Meanwhile, the European Union is moving towards a unified regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies with its Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).
This year, the three main political institutions of the EU-approved MiCA, paving the way for the regulation to become law. MiCA came into force in June 2023, but it’s not expected to apply fully until December 2024.
Companies are already getting ready to take advantage of the new rules, with Coinbase submitting an application for a universal MiCA license in Ireland. If and when it is approved, this would allow Coinbase to “passport” its services into other countries like Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands.
Braden Perry, former federal enforcement attorney and current partner at law firm Kennyhertz Perry, said that while the U.S. remains a top enforcer for the crypto industry, its perception as a regulator “may be diminishing,” as other jurisdictions have stepped in with clearer rules.
“This perception stems from the proactive measures taken by U.S. regulatory bodies like the SEC, CFTC, and IRS, especially in addressing fraud and security issues in the crypto market. High-profile legal actions in the U.S. further cement its image as a strict enforcer,” he said.
“However, other regions, including Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, and the European Union, are also developing robust regulatory frameworks,” Perry added. “While these regions may not be as visible in international media for enforcement actions, they possess significant and sometimes stringent regulatory mechanisms.”
But while the broader EU has been racing to implement new crypto laws, individual European countries haven’t been resting on their laurels.
France has been tempting crypto companies and traders alike to its shores with the promise of tax cuts on crypto profits and a smoother registration process for digital asset firms.
Starting from Jan 1, 2024, France’s Financial Markets Authority, or AMF, is set to amend its registration requirements for crypto firms to better align with MiCA, according to an August statement from the regulator.
At the same time, French authorities have kept a skeptical eye on fraudulent activity among various crypto players. In September, French regulators added 22 fraudulent websites — including some that market trading in crypto and crypto-linked derivatives — to a blacklist of unauthorized foreign exchange providers.
In Germany, meanwhile, the financial regulator Bafin has said it wants to accelerate its approach to licensing crypto custody services, as part of a broader effort to instill trust and transparency in the crypto market.
The U.K., a non-member of the EU, passed a law in June that gives regulators the ability to oversee stablecoins. But there are no concrete rules for crypto just yet.
The U.K.’s Treasury department released its response to a consultation on new crypto rules earlier this year, confirming that it plans to bring a range of crypto activities, including crypto custody and lending, within existing laws governing financial services firms in the country.
Earlier this year, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which is recognized for clear fintech and crypto regulations that do not rely heavily on enforcement actions, finalized rules for stablecoins, making it one of the world’s first jurisdictions to do so.
Singapore was notably bruised by the collapse of TerraUSD, a controversial algorithmic stablecoin, in 2022, as well as the fall of Three Arrows Capital, or 3AC. Both Terra Labs, the company behind Terra, and 3AC were headquartered in Singapore.
Singapore’s new framework requires stablecoin issuers to back them with low-risk and highly-liquid assets, which must equal or exceed the value of tokens in circulation at all times, return the par value of the digital currency to holders within five business days of a redemption request, and disclose audit results of reserves to users.
The region has been increasingly warming to crypto assets, despite a broader anti-crypto push from China, which banned bitcoin trading and mining in 2021.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, or SFC, launched a registration regime for digital asset businesses earlier this year, with clear regulations for crypto exchanges and funds.
So far, only two firms, OSL Digital and Hash Blockchain, have been handed licenses.
The United Arab Emirates has emerged as a popular base for the fintech sector more broadly, given its lack of personal income tax, flexible visa policies, and competitive incentives for international businesses and workers.
In 2022, in a bid to lead the virtual assets sector in the Middle East and Africa, Dubai — the UAE’s most populous city — launched VARA, or the Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority.
“Dubai and the UAE have created favorable conditions for cryptocurrency businesses, offering specific zones and guidelines for crypto trading,” said Perry.
Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis notes that regulators in the UAE were early to cryptocurrency, with Dubai leading the charge when it launched a blockchain strategy in 2016.
“Since then, UAE regulators have remained at the forefront of the industry,” according to a Chainalysis report.
Two years later, in 2018, Abu Dhabi Global Market created the world’s first regulatory framework for cryptocurrency to foster innovation while safeguarding consumers.
Earlier this year, the UAE passed further crypto regulations at the federal level to make it easier for regulators like VARA to police the sector and run economic-free zones.
The Nasdaq MarketSite in the Times Square neighborhood of New York, on Tuesday, May 31, 2022.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Tech stocks rebounded from a disastrous 2022 and lifted the Nasdaq to one of its strongest years in the past two decades.
After last year’s 33% plunge, the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished 2023 up 43%, its best year since 2020, which was narrowly higher. The gain was also just shy of the index’s performance in 2009. Those are the only two years with bigger gains dating back to 2003, when stocks were coming out of the dot-com crash.
The Nasdaq is now just 6.5% below its record high it reached in November 2021.
Across the industry, the big story this year was a return to risk, driven by the Federal Reserve halting its interest rate hikes and a more stable outlook on inflation. Companies also benefited from the cost-cutting measures they put in place starting late last year to focus on efficiency and bolstering profit margins.
“Once you have a Fed that’s backing off, no mas, in terms of rate hikes, you can get back to the business of pricing companies properly — how much money do they make, what kind of multiple do you put on it,” Kevin Simpson, founder of Capital Wealth Planning, told CNBC’s “Halftime Report” on Tuesday. “It can continue into 2024.”
While the tech industry got a big boost from the macro environment and the prospect of lower borrowing costs, the emergence of generative artificial intelligence drove excitement in the sector and pushed companies to invest in what’s viewed as the next big thing.
Nvidia was the big winner in the AI rush. The chipmaker’s stock price soared 239% in 2023, as large cloud vendors and heavily funded startups snapped up the company’s graphics processing units (GPUs), which are needed to train and run advanced AI models. In the first three quarters of 2023, Nvidia generated $17.5 billion in net income, up more than sixfold from the prior year. Revenue in the latest quarter tripled.
Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, said in March that AI’s “iPhone moment” has begun.
“Startups are racing to build disruptive products and business models, while incumbents are looking to respond,” Huang said at Nvidia’s developers conference. “Generative AI has triggered a sense of urgency in enterprises worldwide to develop AI strategies.”
Consumers got to know about generative AI thanks to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which the Microsoft-backed company released in late 2022. The chatbot allowed users to type in a few words of text and start a conversation that could produce sophisticated responses in an instant.
Developers started using generative AI to create tools for booking travel, creating marketing materials, enhancing customer service and even coding software. Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon touted their hefty investments in generative AI as they embedded the tech across product suites.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said on his company’s earnings call in October that generative AI will likely produce tens of billions of dollars in revenue for Amazon Web Services in the next few years, adding that Amazon is using the models to forecast inventory, establish transportation routes for drivers, help third-party sellers create product pages and help advertisers generate images.
“We have been surprised at the pace of growth in generative AI,” Jassy said. “Our generative AI business is growing very, very quickly. Almost by any measure it’s a pretty significant business for us already. And yet I would also say that companies are still in the relatively early stages.”
Amazon shares climbed 81% in 2023, their best year since 2015.
Microsoft investors enjoyed a rally this year unlike anything they’d seen since 2009, with shares of the software company climbing 58%.
In addition to its investment in OpenAI, Microsoft integrated the technology into products like Bing, Office and Windows. Copilot became the brand for its broad generative AI service, and CEO Satya Nadella described Microsoft last month as “the Copilot company.”
“Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI and subsequent product innovation through 2023 has resulted in a market dynamic shift,” Michael Turrin, a Wells Fargo analyst who recommends buying the stock, wrote in a Dec. 20 note to clients. “Many now view MSFT as the outright leader in the early AI wars (even ahead of market share leader AWS).”
Meanwhile, Microsoft has been cranking out profits at a historic rate. In its latest earnings report, Microsoft said its gross margin exceeded 71% for the first time since 2013, when Steve Ballmer ran the company. Microsoft has found ways to more efficiently run its data centers and has lowered reliance on hardware, resulting in higher margins for the segment containing Windows, Xbox and search.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (R) speaks as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (L) looks on during the OpenAI DevDay event on November 06, 2023 in San Francisco, California. Altman delivered the keynote address at the first ever Open AI DevDay conference.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
After Nvidia, the biggest stock pop among mega-cap tech companies was in shares of Meta, which jumped almost 200%. Nvidia and Meta were by far the two top performers in the S&P 500.
Meta’s rally was sparked in February, when CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who founded the company in 2004, said 2023 would be the company’s “year of efficiency” after the stock plummeted 64% in 2022 due largely to three straight quarters of declining revenue.
The company cut more than 20,000 jobs, proving to Wall Street it was serious about streamlining its expenses. Then growth returned as Facebook picked up market share in digital advertising. For the third quarter, Meta recorded expansion of 23%, its sharpest increase in two years.
Like Meta, Uber wasn’t around during the dot-com crash. The ride-hailing company was founded in 2009, during the depths of the financial crisis, and became a tech darling in the ensuing years, when investors favored innovation and growth over profit.
Uber went public in 2019, but for a long time battled the notion that it could never be profitable because so much of its revenue went to paying drivers. But the economic model finally began to work late last year, for both its rideshare and food delivery businesses.
That all allowed Uber to achieve a major investor milestone earlier this month, when the stock was added to the S&P 500. Members of the index must have positive earnings in the most recent quarter and over the prior four quarters in total, according to S&P’s rules. Uber reported net income of $221 million on $9.29 billion in revenue for its third quarter, and in the past four quarters altogether, it generated more than $1 billion in profit.
Uber shares climbed to a record this week and jumped 149% for the year. The stock, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, finished the year as the sixth-biggest gainer in the S&P 500.
Despite the tech rally in 2023, there was a dearth of new opportunities for public investors during the year. After a dismal 2022 for tech IPOs, very few names came to market in 2023. The three most notable IPOs — Instacart, Arm and Klaviyo — all took place during a one-week stretch in September.
For most late-stage companies in the IPO pipeline, more work needs to be done. The public market remains unwelcoming for cash-burning companies that have yet to show they can be sustainably profitable, which is a problem for the many startups that raised mountains of cash during the zero-interest days of 2020 and 2021.
Even for profitable software and internet companies, multiples have contracted, meaning the valuation startups achieved in the private market will require many of them to take a haircut when going public.
Byron Lichtenstein, a managing director at venture firm Insight Partners, called 2023 “the great reset.” He said the companies best positioned for IPOs are unlikely to debut until the back half of 2024 at the earliest. In the meantime, they’ll be making necessary preparations, such as hiring independent board members and spending on IT and accounting to make sure they’re ready.
“You have this dynamic of where expectations were in ’21 and the prices that were paid then,” Lichtenstein said in an interview. “We’re still dealing with a little bit of that hangover.”
—CNBC’s Jonathan Vanian contributed to this report
Apple CEO Tim Cook stands next to a new Apple Vision Pro headset displayed during the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference in Cupertino, California, June 5, 2023.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Apple’s stock rallied in 2023, but its performance was outshined by all of its mega-cap tech peers, as the company suffered four straight quarters of declining revenue. It’s the longest such slide for Apple since the dot-com bust of 2001.
But Apple also dealt with some company-specific issues. Apple didn’t release new iPad models in 2023, the first time that’s happened in a calendar year since the product was launched in 2010. Without new models, Apple has less to promote, and older versions of the product don’t see official price cuts that boost sales.
Earlier this month, all current model iPads were shipping from Apple’s website in a day, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. That’s a sign of weak demand because with the hottest products, Apple doesn’t have enough supply to ship that quickly.
In fiscal 2023, which ended in September, Apple’s iPad revenue dropped 3.4% to $28.3 billion. On a unit basis, iPad sales were even worse, falling 15%, according to a recent estimate from Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan. Apple doesn’t report unit sales.
To make matters worse, new Apple Watch models were removed from Apple stores in the U.S. days before Christmas over an intellectual property dispute. After a late December appeal, the devices have been returned to store shelves, but Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Apple lost about $135 million in sales per day during the brief ban.
Even for Apple’s new products, like Mac computers, consumers showed less interest in opening their wallets for devices with minor upgrades. Sales of Mac PCs and laptops fell nearly 27% to $10.2 billion in fiscal 2023. Unit sales declined 11%, according to Bank of America’s estimate.
Apple shares still managed to jump 49% for the year as of Thursday’s close, topping the Nasdaq’s 44% gain. However, investors were better off betting on any of the other most-valuable tech companies. Nvidia shares more than tripled this year, and Meta climbed almost 200%. Tesla’s stock more than doubled, Amazon rose 83%, Alphabet jumped 59% and Microsoft gained 57%.
In order to return to revenue growth and support its $3 trillion market cap, Apple needs some new products to hit and global demand for smartphones and laptops to recover.
A big test will come early next year, when Apple’s first mixed-reality headset — the $3,499 Vision Pro — hits the market.
“We believe success with the Vision Pro is less about 2024 and more about its longer-term potential,” Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a note this month.
Assuming Apple ships 400,000 headsets, Vision Pro revenue could be about $1.4 billion next year, according to an estimate from UBS analyst David Vogt. He called the sum “relatively immaterial.”
Enthusiasm will be the key. The Vision Pro is Apple’s first completely new device since it announced the Apple Watch, and it will be sold through Apple stores. The headset could generate foot traffic and buzz for Apple’s existing products. And there’s a chance that it catches on enough to show that Apple has the lead when it comes to the future of computing.
Looking overseas, Apple would like to see an easing of tensions between the U.S. and China.
In 2023, Apple made significant progress diversifying its centers of production away from mainland China and into countries like Vietnam and India. But its moves to expand its supply chain appear to have awakened an impulse in the Chinese government to classify Apple as a foreign company. The White House called reports that Chinese government agencies told their employees not to bring iPhones to work “retaliation.”
The Chinese government has denied them. Yet analysts are starting to worry that Chinese demand for iPhones, especially in the current quarter, is flagging. The iPhone remains Apple’s most important hardware product, accounting for about half of total company revenue.
“Heading into the holiday season, iPhone unit demand remains the key near-term debate amidst macro woes and concerns around potential share loss in China on the resurgence of Huawei,” Citi analyst Atif Malik wrote in a note this month.
Despite its struggles, Apple remains a juggernaut. The company recorded $383 billion in total revenue in fiscal 2023 and earned nearly $97 billion in net income.
Because the smartphone and PC markets were in retreat, Apple gained market share in some countries, where rivals saw steeper declines. In February, Apple said it had 2 billion devices in use, a closely watched metric that investors see as a predictor of future sales from software and services.
Apple is preparing new iPads for next year, which could boost demand, according to Bloomberg. The company has submitted a software update for its watches to the U.S. government that it hopes will clear up the intellectual property dispute that briefly banned sales. IPhones still have a speed advantage over Huawei’s new devices, partially thanks to import restrictions on chips and chip equipment.
In November, Apple CFO Luca Maestri said the company’s December quarter — its biggest of the year — will be flat compared with last year. He warned that Macs, Wearables and iPads would see a sales drop.
But according to analyst estimates, the total sales declines are in the rearview mirror, with mild growth expected in the first half of the year and acceleration after that.
“Overall, the downturn appears to be over, and we believe it is time to see mild growth,” Bank of America analyst Simon Woo wrote in a report this month.
Shortly after the murder of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police in 2020, Google was among many tech companies that set up new programs aimed at supporting Black employees. The goal, CEO Sundar Pichai wrote, was “to build sustainable equity for Google’s Black+ community, and externally, to make our products and programs helpful in the moments that matter most to Black users.”
Google’s vocal commitments included improving representation of underrepresented groups in leadership by 30% by 2025; more than doubling the number of Black workers at nonsenior levels by 2025; addressing representation issues in hiring, retention and promotions; and establishing better support for the mental and physical health for Black employees.
The move was part of a broader trend in the wake of the Floyd killing, which sparked societal unrest and drew attention to the power imbalances in corporate America and the tech industry specifically. Corporations pledged to invest millions of dollars to improve diversity in their ranks and support external groups doing work on diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI.
But in 2023, some of those programs are in retreat.
By mid-2023, DEI-related job postingshad declined 44% from the same time a year prior, according to data provided by job site Indeed. In November 2023, the last full month for which data was available, it dropped 23% year over year.
That’s a sharp contrast with the period from 2020 to 2021, when those postings expanded nearly 30%.
In line with this broader trend, both Google and Meta have cut staffers and downsized programs that fell under DEI investment.
The year’s cuts have also impacted smaller, third-party organizations who counted on big tech clients for work, despite the continued growth of those tech giants.
“Whenever there is an economic downturn in tech, some of the first budgets that are cut are in DEI, but I don’t think we’ve seen such stark contrast as this year,” said Melinda Briana Epler, founder and CEO of Empovia, which advises companies and leaders to use a research-based culture of equality.
“When George Floyd began to become the topic of conversations, companies and executives doubled down on their commitments and here we are only a couple years later, and folks are looking for opportunities to cut those teams,” said Devika Brij, CEO of Brij the Gap Consulting, which works with tech companies’ DEI efforts. Brij said some of her clients had cut their DEI budgets by as much as 90% by midyear.
However, more than just broken promises are at stake, experts told CNBC in a series of interviews.
The cuts come at a time when technology companies are forging ahead on the biggest technology shift in a decade: artificial intelligence. If diverse people are not included in AI development, that may result in even greater power imbalances for both corporate workers, as well as consumers who will use their products.
“Our commitment to DEI remains at the center of who we are as a company,” a Meta spokesperson wrote in a statement to CNBC. “We continue to intentionally design equitable and fair practices to drive progress across our people, product, policy and partnerships pillars.”
“Our workforce reductions and company-wide efforts to sharpen our focus span the breadth of our business,” said a Google spokesperson, saying that the company remains committed to underrepresented communities and DEI work. “To be absolutely clear, our commitment to that work has not changed and we invested in many new programs and partnerships this year.”
The Google spokesperson did not dispute any specifics in this story, but pointed to new investments in partnerships this year, including committing more than $5 million to historically Black colleges and universities to help build a stronger pipeline to the tech industry for underrepresented talent, and launching the Google for Startups Women Founders Fund to help women entrepreneurs.
In 2021,after facing complaints about pay equity in its Engineering Residency program, Google said it would be sunsetting the program and replacing it with a new one called Early Career Immersion, or ECI, which is aimed at helping underrepresented talent develop skills. (Google said sunsetting Engineering Residency was an unrelated business decision.)
But Google decided not to hire a 2023 cohort of ECI software engineers, citing an uncertain hiring outlook, according to correspondence viewed by CNBC. It also laid off some staffers associated with the program.
Participants in a separate Google program called Apprenticeships also lodged complaints about a lack of pathways and pay inequities in the last year, CNBC found.
“Apprentices become part of our mission to build great products for every user, and their different experiences help ensure that our products are as diverse as our users,” Google’s Apprenticeships website states.
But Apprenticeships participants complained they were getting paid less than other engineers during the course of the 20-month program despite doing similar work. They said they were doing “Level 3” work with L3 expectations and contributing significantly to Google’s codebase while earning half of full-time L3 software engineers’ base salary, according to internal correspondence seen by CNBC.
The apprentices even confronted the executive sponsor of the program, Aparna Pappu, vice president of Google Workspace, pointing out the executive’s prior stated goal “to increase representation of underrepresented talent across Google.”
The company said that apprentices are paid a salary for the learning and training they receive as part of the program, and that it reviews compensation annually to ensure alignment with the market.
The Apprenticeships program, which included real-work job training for underrepresented backgrounds, followed other failed efforts to improve diversity. In 2021, for instance, Google said it shut down a long-running program aimed at entry-level engineers from underrepresented backgrounds after participants said it enforced “systemic pay inequities.” That same year, CNBC found the company’s separate program that worked with students from historically Black colleges, suffered extreme disorganization, racism and broken promises to students.
Google and Meta also made cuts to personnel who were in charge of recruiting underrepresented people, according to several sources and documentation.
Nearly every member of Meta’s Sourcer Development Program, more than 60 workers, was let go from the company as part of its layoff of over 11,000 workers, CNBC learned. They claimed to have received inferior severance packages compared with other workers who were laid off in the same time period. Meta’s Sourcer Development Program was intended to help workers from diverse backgrounds obtain careers in corporate technology recruiting.
Google also cut DEI leaders who worked with Chief Diversity Officer Melonie Parker, while Meta made cuts to several DEI managers — some of whom it hired in 2020.
Layoffs at Google and Meta also included employees who held leadership roles in their respective Black employee resource groups, known as ERGs.
“There’s a lowering of physiological safety with layoffs or impending layoffs, and holding ERGs accountable for that is not fair and can lead to even more burnout,” Epler said.
In addition to cutting staff who worked on DEI programs and ERGs, both Meta and Google cut planned learning and development training for underrepresented talent, according to multiple sources who asked not to be named due to fear of retaliation. Meta said that learning and development programs were “merely streamlined to make them more impactful.”
“There’s a consistent amount of folks who have completely failed, mostly because they don’t have the internal teams to keep the mission forward,” said Simone White, who is a senior vice president at Blavity, a media organization that focuses on content for the Black community, and puts on AfroTech, which became a popular tech conference for Black tech talent and companies seeking to hire them.
While internal DEI programs have suffered, the cuts were arguably even harder for external organizations who expected the same amount of corporate sponsorship and support from tech companies in 2023 as they had the prior few years.
In early 2023, big tech leaders, including Google and Meta were among companies that lessened their work with third parties that were counting on projects, according to several organizations and sources who spoke with CNBC.
Brij, CEO of Brijthe Gap Consulting, explained how the steep cuts have affected her firm, which consults with companies on building an effective workforce for underrepresented workers and includes workshops and programs.
“Right now with these budgets being entirely limited or cut, we’re just really backpedaling on so much of the work that we’ve done.”
Brij said some companies have even asked her to provide work for free.
“A lot of companies we worked with started to make progress before the cuts,” Epler said. “Now, it’s like some of them are essentially wiping away that work.”
Stefania Pomponi, founder of Hella Social Impact, said executives have blamed cost-cutting as they’ve canceled contracts with the firm, which consults with companies’ leadership to create more inclusive workplaces through programs and training.
“I’ve been telling them, ‘look, your bottom line is also your people and these types of cuts are going to impact your business’” Pomponi said, pointing to various studies on diverse teams producing higher performance outcomes.
“As I talk to my colleagues across the space, some of the monies that were set aside around the time of George Floyd’s murder have not been fully extended, and that says to me that organizations like ours are needed now more than ever,” said Brenda Wilkerson, CEO of AnitaB.org, which puts on Grace Hopper, the largest women’s tech conference, which took place in September.
Some large tech companies, including Meta, pulled back from sponsorship or attendance for employees to attend Grace Hopper 2023, according to sources who asked to remain anonymous because they are not authorized to speak to the media. Some companies, including Microsoft, ended up sending some leaders to attend virtually so they wouldn’t have to pay for travel, according to two sources who wished to remain anonymous.
Microsoft said it still sent some employees physically, and both Microsoft and Meta told CNBC that Grace Hopper’s virtual option allowed more employees to participate.
Other companies such as Google, which still had a presence at the conference, retracted travel for some employees who had previously been approved to attend, according to several sources who asked to remain anonymous. Google is also among companies to reduce their spending with Blavity, the organization that puts on AfroTech, according to sources who asked not to be named due to being unauthorized to speak.
“We do have a significant amount of our existing corporate partners that are telling us ‘Hey, we can’t participate this year because our DEI team doesn’t even exist anymore,’” said Blavity’s Simone White, who declined to name specific companies. “Week to week, we have new contacts at companies, and folks we worked with for years to organize this work are no longer there.”
“To say our progress is not in peril would not be truthful,” AnitaB.org’s Wilkerson said, although she’s optimistic the tide could turn around in 2024. “We’re working with multiple challenges in our society, so we have made a lot of the progress but some of that was erased in the last year. Then you have this backlash against racial reckoning.”
The backlash she referred to includes things like the Supreme Court’s June decision to end affirmative action at colleges, as well as backlash against DEI programs in conservative circles. “You have this ‘wokeism’ drama.” Wilkerson said, pointing to Florida legislation such as banning books and downplaying Black history, as well as laws impacting the LGBTQIA+ community.
Because of that backlash, 2023 will be the last year the organization will hold Grace Hopper in Florida, Wilkerson said. It will be held in Philadelphia next year.
A Meta spokesperson said that it increased its engagement with some third-party organizations such as The Executive Leadership Council, which aims to increase Black leadership in C-suites.
Wilkerson was among experts who told CNBC that DEI work is more important than ever given the growing work on artificial intelligence, which hit breakneck speed in 2023.
“We’re in a big technology inflection point, and what happens is as AI begins to take off and if organizations are less inclusive, the product is not reflective of the users,” Wilkerson said.
Apple, Google and other tech giants are still grappling with displaying and identifying images accurately. A New York Times investigation this year found Apple and Google’s Android software, which underpins most of the world’s smartphones, turned off the ability to visually search for primates for fear of labeling a person as an animal.
“We know that AI is trained on historic data and that historic data is missing critical segments of the population, and having women and noncentered folks as decision-makers is going to be critical to making sure it doesn’t happen again,” Wilkerson said.
White said companies who made cuts this year may have a difficult time building future relationships with DEI stakeholders, and it may impact their ability to attract and retain talent, should they decide to build up again in the future.
“Younger generations increasingly care who has a seat at the table,” White said. “And they’re going to remember who did what they said they were going to do.”
Tech stocks may have been the play for 2023, but for next year Bank of America Securities likes their debt. The bank called investment-grade corporate bonds of technology companies one of its top 10 trades for 2024. “Own tech balance sheets, but not tech EPS in ’24,” investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a Nov. 19 note. The “Magnificent 7” tech stocks — Apple , Alphabet , Amazon , Microsoft , Meta Platforms , Nvidia and Tesla — led the market higher this year. Nvidia, for instance, has skyrocketed a staggering 229% year to date, while Meta is up 190% so far this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has gained 39% year to date. Hartnett said his call on the bonds of big U.S. tech companies is a “great, underappreciated contrarian hedge” in a year that will likely see rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and either a “hard landing” or “soft landing” for the economy. “How do you position for unexpected events next year? A decent hedge would be the bonds of companies that have a lot of cash,” he added. “The Magnificent 7 have a lot of cash.” That unexpected event would be a hard landing, according to Harnett. He says the consensus view is a soft landing, or a gradual easing of inflation and the labor market in response to the Fed’s rate hikes. But Harnett expects there is a greater risk than expected that the economy will slow down abruptly. If a hard landing is underpriced by investors, then this outcome unquestionably will be negative for equities, Harnett explained. With the biggest positions in equities in the Magnificent 7, a hard landing would lead to deleveraging of those stocks, he added. It would also be positive for bonds. “You would get some rotation into high quality corporate bonds — and there is nothing more high quality in the corporate bond market than large-cap U.S. tech,” Hartnett said. Overall, he expects money to flow into bonds next year. Buying investment-grade tech corporate bonds is just one side of the firm’s barbell strategy in the asset class, he said. “You certainly want exposure to what we would call the diamonds in the rough — the best house in the worst neighborhood, like banks,” Hartnett said. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
Single-stock ETFs were first introduced in Europe in 2018. There are now nearly four dozen single-stock ETFs in the U.S., many of which track the so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla and Meta. Other names on Morningstar’s list of single-stock ETFs include Coinbase and Alibaba.
Collectively, single-stock ETFs have about $3.3 billion of net assets, according to Morningstar.
The growth of these single-stock ETFs, which are leveraged, is not particularly surprising, given that the Nasdaq is up more than 40% this year and big-tech stocks in particular are soaring. But they’ve likely earned a long-term spot in the market.
Single-stock ETFs “are here to stay,” said Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar. The strategy “taps into some of the gambling mindset that exists in markets,” he said.
More from ETF Strategist
Here’s a look at other stories offering insight on ETFs for investors.
Here’s what investors need to know about the growth of the single-stock ETF market and where it could be heading.
There are 45 single-stock ETFs in total, according to Morningstar, from a handful of providers including Direxion, AXS, GraniteShares and YieldMax. These ETFs follow bull, bear or option income strategies.
The largest by asset size is the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 1.5X Shares, which tracks Tesla. In July, it became the first of its kind in the U.S. to surpass the $1 billion asset mark.
The second-largest single-stock ETF by asset size is the YieldMax TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF, which had around $841 million of assets at the end of November, according to Morningstar.
In third place by asset size is the GraniteShares 1.5x Long NVDA Daily ETF, which tracks Nvidia and has soared in a year dominated by artificial intelligence optimism and the gains for chipmakers. It had about $245 million in assets at the end of November, Morningstar data shows.
To achieve their stated returns, leveraged and inverse ETPs often use a range of investment strategies. This can include swaps, futures and other derivatives as well as long or short positions, according to a FINRA explainer.
Rich Lee, head of program and ETF trading at Robert W. Baird & Co., expects to see more single-stock ETFs with an options overlay strategy and income component. YieldMax offers several of these ETFs that seek to generate monthly income by selling/writing call options on single company stock exposures.
There is continuous appetite for single-stock ETFs, and there will continue to be innovation, combining themes and exposures under the ETF wrapper, Lee said. “It’s a way to get quick exposure with leverage.”
While the number and assets within these ETFs has mushroomed, there have been duds. Single-stock ETFs tracking Nike and Pfizer — the former whose shares are close to flat this year and the latter whose shares are down 45% — among a few others, closed down. Some stocks are too bland to get investors riled up one way or another, Armour said. If an ETF can’t get enough traction, investment managers have to decide where to focus their resources, he said. It’s something for investors to keep in mind: What’s on the market today may not be in a few months.
Performance is all over the map. The Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 1.5X, for instance, had a total one-year return of about 12% through November, but it’s up about 148% year to date through Dec. 15, according to Morningstar. The GraniteShares 1.5x Long COIN Daily ETF, which tracks Coinbase, had a one-year return through November of about 206% and returned about 488% year to date through Dec. 15, according to Morningstar.
Not surprisingly, single-stock ETFs that take a bear strategy have seen negative returns of late.
But performance over time isn’t really the point.
The market for these vehicles is mostly traders and individual investors with an extremely high risk tolerance. There are other ways to gain leverage, without needing to pay fees in the 1% range, but for some more sophisticated retail investors who don’t have experience with leverage, a single-stock ETF can be a safer option, Armour said. “It’s just not a smart long-term strategy. It’s a very costly way to gamble in the stock market.”
These vehicles are appropriate for sophisticated retail investors and professionals that are willing to take a short-term view and are willing to monitor their positions daily, said Ed Egilinsky, head of sales and distribution and alternatives at Direxion.
“These are not buy-and-hold products,” he said. “If someone is looking to buy something and not pay attention to it, this is not the vehicle.”
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued an investor warning in August, reiterating the extra risks inherent to single-stock ETFs. “Because leveraged single-stock ETFs in particular amplify the effect of price movements of the underlying individual stocks, investors holding these funds will experience even greater volatility and risk than investors who hold the underlying stock itself,” the SEC said.
“You definitely have to understand what investing or hedging investment you’re trying to achieve with these products,” Lee said. “For a lot of these leveraged products, people are using it to get intraday exposure or use it for some sort of hedging.”
Which stocks could be targeted for the next hotly traded single-stock ETF?
Success is determined in part by assets, daily volume and scale, said Egilinsky. While he declined to be specific about where Direxion is next looking to add to its single-stock ETF lineup, he did say AI is a hot area. “We’re going to let this play out over time. It’s still in its infancy stages and we’ll continue to look for single stocks that make sense for us to bring to the market.”
Financial conditions are now looser than in September, says economist
Financial conditions in the U.S. are looser than in September, says economist.
Getty Images
The feel-good tone gripping markets in the home stretch of 2023 may not be what the Federal Reserve had penciled in for the holidays.
The stock market in December, once again, has been knocking on the door of record levels, driven by optimism about easing inflation and potential Fed rate cuts next year.
But while the prospect of double-digit equity gains this year would be a reprieve for investors after a brutal 2022, the latest rally also points to looser financial conditions.
Ultimately, the risk of looser financial conditions is that they could backfire, particularly if they rub against the Fed’s own goal of keeping credit restrictive until inflation has been decisively tamed.
Specifically, the November rally for the S&P 500 index SPX
can be traced to the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
dropping to 4.1% on Thursday from a 16-year peak of 5% in October.
Falling 10-year Treasury yields from a 5% peak in October coincides with a sharp rally in the S&P 500 at the tail end of 2023.
Oxford Economics
The Fed only exerts direct control over short-term rates, but 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
are important because they are a peg for pricing auto loans, corporate debt and mortgages.
That makes long-term rates matter a lot to investors in stocks, bonds and other assets, since higher rates can lead to rising defaults, but also can crimp corporate earnings, growth and the U.S. economy.
Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, thinks the November rally may put Fed officials in a difficult spot ahead of next week’s Dec. 12 to 13 Federal Open Market Committee meeting — the eighth and final policy gathering of 2023.
“The decline in yields and surge in equity prices more than fully unwinds the tightening in conditions seen since the September FOMC meeting,” Pearce said in a Thursday client note.
The Fed next week isn’t expected to raise rates, but instead opt to keep its benchmark rate steady at a 22-year high in a 5.25% to 5.5% range, which was set in July. The hope is that higher rates will keep bringing inflation down to the central bank’s 2% annual target.
Ahead of the Fed’s July meeting, stocks were extending a spring rally into summer, largely driven by shares of six meg-cap technology companies and AI optimism.
Rates in September were kept unchanged, but central bankers also drove home a “higher for longer” message at that meeting, by penciling in only two rate cuts in 2024, instead of four earlier. That spooked markets and triggered a string of monthly losses in stocks.
Pearce said he expects the Fed next week to “push back against the idea that rate cuts could come onto the agenda anytime soon,” but also to “err on the side of leaving rates high for too long.”
That might mean the first rate cut comes in September, he said, later than market odds of a 52.8% chance of the first cut in March, as reflected by Thursday by the CME FedWatch Tool.
Stocks were higher Thursday, poised to snap a three-session drop. A day earlier, the S&P 500 closed 5.2% off its record high set nearly two years ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA
was 2% away from its record close and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP
was almost 12% below its November 2021 record, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Lisa Su displays an AMD Instinct MI300 chip as she delivers a keynote address at CES 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada, Jan. 4, 2023
David Becker | Getty Images
Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft said at an AMD investor event on Wednesday they will use AMD’s newest AI chip, the Instinct MI300X. It’s the biggest sign so far that technology companies are searching for alternatives to the expensive Nvidia graphics processors which have been essential for creating and deploying artificial intelligence programs like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
If AMD’s latest high-end chip is good enough for the technology companies and cloud service providers building and serving AI models when it starts shipping early next year, it could lower costs for developing AI models, and put competitive pressure on Nvidia’s surging AI chip sales growth.
“All of the interest is in big iron and big GPUs for the cloud,” AMD CEO Lisa Su said on Wednesday.
AMD says the MI300X is based on a new architecture, which often leads to significant performance gains. Its most distinctive feature is that it has 192GB of a cutting-edge, high-performance type of memory known as HBM3, which transfers data faster and can fit larger AI models.
At an event for analysts on Wednesday, CEO Lisa Su directly compared its Instinct MI300X and the systems built with it to Nvidia’s main AI GPU, the H100.
“What this performance does is it just directly translates into a better user experience,” Su said. “When you ask a model something, you’d like it to come back faster, especially as responses get more complicated.”
The main question facing AMD is whether companies that have been building on Nvidia will invest the time and money to add another GPU supplier. “It takes work to adopt AMD,” Su said.
AMD on Wednesday told investors and partners that it had improved its software suite called ROCm to compete with Nvidia’s industry standard CUDA software, addressing a key shortcoming that had been one of the primary reasons why AI developers currently prefer Nvidia.
Price will also be important — AMD didn’t reveal pricing for the MI300X on Wednesday, but Nvidia’s can cost around $40,000 for one chip, and Su told reporters that AMD’s chip would have to cost less to purchase and operate than Nvidia in order to convince customers to buy it.
AMD MI300X accelerator for artificial intelligence.
On Wednesday, AMD said it had already signed up some of of the companies most hungry for GPUs to use the chip. Meta and Microsoft were the two largest purchasers of Nvidia H100 GPUs in 2023, according to a recent report from research firm Omidia.
Meta said that it will use Instinct MI300X GPUs for AI inference workloads like processing AI stickers, image editing, and operating its assistant. Microsoft’s CTO Kevin Scott said it would offer access to MI300X chips through its Azure web service. Oracle‘s cloud will also use the chips.
OpenAI said it would support AMD GPUs in one of its software products called Triton, which isn’t a big large language model like GPT, but is used in AI research to access chip features.
AMD isn’t yet forecasting massive sales for the chip yet, only projecting about $2 billion in total data center GPU revenue in 2024. Nvidia reported over $14 billion in data center sales in the most recent quarter alone, although that metric includes other chips beside GPUs.
However, AMD says that the total market for AI GPUs could climb to $400 billion over the next four years, doubling the company’s previous projection, showing how high expectations and how coveted high-end AI chips have become — and why the company is now focusing investor attention on the product line. Su also suggested to reporters that AMD doesn’t think that it needs to beat Nvidia to do well in the market.
“I think it’s clear to say that Nvidia has to be the vast majority of that right now,” Su told reporters, referring to the AI chip market. “We believe it could be $400-billion-plus in 2027. And we could get a nice piece of that.”
Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks during Meta Connect event at Meta headquarters in Menlo Park, California on September 27, 2023.
Josh Edelson | AFP | Getty Images
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg may not have been directly involved with the drama surrounding Sam Altman’s tumultuous departure from, then return to, OpenAI, but the social networking executive and his company could benefit from the drama.
There’s been much debate over the “winners” of the OpenAI executive saga, with some experts believing Microsoft and its CEO Satya Nadella proved victorious while the OpenAI board members who kicked off the debacle by firing Altman last Friday were the losers.
Microsoft, OpenAI’s largest financial backer, has been positioning the high-profile startup as a cornerstone cloud computing partner, promoting Altman and his team throughout the year at numerous events. It created a public association between itself and the high-flying maker of ChatGPT. But that backfired somewhat when critics questioned how the boardroom shenanigans could have escaped Nadella and his company’s watch.
Meanwhile, Meta and Zuckerberg had the luxury of watching the corporate circus from the sidelines. It could help Meta boost its open-source Llama AI initiatives, as some companies look to diversify away from relying on a single company’s large language model. And it may even help with recruiting.
Meta continues to invest heavily in the kinds of generative AI and related large language models that helped spawn OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Its AI research team is considered, with Alphabet’s DeepMind, one of the most esteemed groups in the tech industry.
Technologists looking to work in the private sector may find comfort in stability at Meta and its AI research lab following the seemingly near collapse of one of the industry’s leading AI startups.
As one user on Meta’s Twitter-like Threads service posted on Wednesday: “Everyone is saying MSFT is the big winner of [the] OpenAI fiasco. But I can easily see META being the big winner in the end.”
“If you’re an AI researcher and you’re going to work at big tech, it might as well be the company with the largest open source and public research presence,” the user said in the Threads post.
Yann LeCun, Meta’s AI chief, responded to the post with a curt “Yup.”
Then there are the potential business opportunities.
The OpenAI fiasco raised concerns among the startup’s customers and other corporate leaders about whether they should only rely on one kind of LLM as part of their AI business strategies. Multiple technologists told CNBC that the OpenAI ordeal jumpstarted a push from businesses to lessen their reliance on OpenAI’s GPT family of LLMs to incorporate others from startups like Anthropic and Cohere.
Meta could benefit if companies continue to seek multiple AI vendors, much like firms now rely on multiple cloud providers. The company has heavily touted its Llama-branded family of generative AI software, which is available for free via an open-source model. Llama is attractive because developers can access and customize the LLM to their specific needs without being tethered to a particular vendor.
The more developers access and improve Llama, the more Meta can potentially lower its overall operating and technology research costs, among other benefits.
Finally, despite Llama’s licensing concerns and other potential issues, more companies and developers may choose to build apps with Meta’s AI software without fear that the social networking giant could collapse in a matter of days.
When there was a companywide protest at OpenAI after its CEO Sam Altman was ousted, software startup CEO Arjun Bansal began fielding increased calls from customers asking for help to lessen their use of OpenAI’s GPT large language models.
At his startup Log10, Bansal oversees the production of tools that third-party developers can use to build LLM-powered applications. Since the OpenAI drama unfolded, Bansal told CNBC the startup’s instability was a reason customers cited.
“People have been reaching out on how they would go through that process of being able to fine-tune different models or try out different providers with minimal disruption to how their code is set up,” Bansal told CNBC. “It is a very unprecedented situation, that a company of this size with this very unusual governance structure has gone through so much change in just over a weekend.”
A spokesperson for OpenAI declined to comment but said the startup’s services are working again following three hours of issues.
OpenAI’s board of directors fired Altman Friday after determining he was “not consistently candid in his communications” with them, according to a statement.
After a long weekend of negotiations that appeared to result in reinstating Altman at the company, ex-Twitch CEO Emmett Shear announced he had been appointed interim head, and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said the software maker would hire Altman, along with fellow OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman and their colleagues.
However, more than 90% of OpenAI employees signed a letter to the company’s board demanding that they resign, or staffers might choose to leave. Now, Shear is reportedly considering leaving if the board doesn’t provide evidence of their reasoning for firing Altman in the first place.
Bansal is one of several startup entrepreneurs who told CNBC they or their customers are considering relying less on OpenAI’s GPT family of LLMs in the days since the board pushed out Altman.
“There’s definitely people taking it quite seriously,” Bansal said.
One founder of an AI startup, who asked not to be named in order to discuss internal matters, said he uses multiple application program interfaces from OpenAI and has considered switching to offerings from Anthropic, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI executives with backing from Amazon and Google.
The startup founder said he considered alternatives over the weekend after Altman was ousted, and their concerns grew stronger once OpenAI announced it had selected Shear as Altman’s successor.
Shear is a Silicon Valley veteran, having founded livestreaming platform Justin.tv in 2007 that eventually evolved into Twitch, a popular streaming site for gamers. Amazon acquired Twitch for almost $1 billion in 2014. The source, who previously worked alongside Shear, said Shear is “very smart” and admires his integrity.
But he’s not sure if Shear is the right person to lead a company like OpenAI that’s at the forefront of the world’s AI boom.
Martin Kon, president and chief operating officer of Cohere, which also provides LLMs for use in applications, said in a Tuesday statement that he’s seen an increase in inquiries since OpenAI’s drama unfolded.
“Enterprises value certainty, as the significant increase of inbound inquiries we’ve seen this week demonstrates we are still early in enterprise AI adoption, and companies are taking a hard look at how much they value cloud flexibility and independence from big tech,” Kon said.
But some startups are struggling to incorporate multiple LLMs into their applications.
One founder CNBC spoke with said Anthropic has a waiting list, so that even if people are clamoring to use its services, they might not be able to do so right away.
While there are a variety of LLMs available to use, including open-source options such as Meta’s Llama 2 AI software, the consensus is that the GPT-4 model is the most capable of performing complicated tasks at an affordable price. OpenAI lowered its fees earlier this month.
Although the tech industry has credited OpenAI for popularizing the use of AI software that analyzes written text and produces human-like copy, the company now finds itself in a defensive position.
OpenAI employees are trying to assure customers that they are committed to them.
“We are still fully committed to our incredible community of developers and users,” Srinivas Narayanan, whose profile lists him as an OpenAI vice president, wrote on X Tuesday.
“The API team is here. The ChatGPT team is here,” wrote Steven Heidel, a member of OpenAI’s technical staff, in a post Tuesday. “We are all still fully committed to our developers and users.”
Nadella attempted to quell concerns during an interview with CNBC’s Jon Fortt Monday evening.
“Quite frankly, Microsoft has all the capability to just do that on our own but we chose to explicitly partner with OpenAI and we want to continue to do so,” the CEO said.
Some of OpenAI’s customers, however, see more upside in sticking with OpenAI.
Michael Buckley, CEO of a company called Be My Eyes, which makes a mobile app that uses image recognition to help describe objects to the visually impaired, told CNBC that one of its products has been using the GPT-4V model with support for analyzing images since February. He’s decided to stick with OpenAI despite an influx of calls asking him to do otherwise.
“I’ve been bombarded by sales calls from rival LLM companies seeking some opportunistic business wins,” Buckley said. “That’s fair game and business is a contact sport so I get it. And we were already evaluating backup providers as a hedge before the drama.”
Buckley added that he believes OpenAI’s models are “excellent” and that he’s appreciated the company’s loyalty to him since its early days.
Alexander Kvamme, co-founder and CEO of startup Pathlight, said that while his company draws on multiple LLMs in its customer support and sales software product, OpenAI’s GPT models can outperform on more complex tasks — such as analyzing thousands of sales calls, so that companies can ask questions about customer churn and related trends that the AI software can presumably answer.
Kvamme said his team hasn’t experienced any major GPT-related issues yet and members of OpenAI’s customer support team have been answering technical questions despite the corporate drama.
“To Sam’s credit and Satya’s credit, they are finding ways to keep the lights on and kind of keep things working through all this turmoil given the kind of OpenAI and Microsoft relationship,” Kvamme said, referring to OpenAI’s use of Microsoft’s Azure infrastructure. “At the end of the day so far, our customers and developers have not been impacted.”
Other technologists told CNBC that while they haven’t experienced significant problems with GPT-enabled services in the past few days, they are concerned it’s only a matter of time before they do.
“I do know quite a few companies that are basically trashing their current product roadmap and saying, like, you know, we need new infrastructure,” Kvamme said.
On Wednesday, Brockman wrote on X (formerly known as Twitter) that a voice-activated version of OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT app is now available for everyone to use for free.
“Give it a try — totally changes the ChatGPT experience,” Brockman said.
— CNBC’s Jordan Novet and Annie Palmer contributed to this report.