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Tag: Meta Platforms Inc

  • Meta loses $200 billion in value as Zuckerberg focuses earnings call on all the ways company bleeds cash

    Meta loses $200 billion in value as Zuckerberg focuses earnings call on all the ways company bleeds cash

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    Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee at the Dirksen Senate Office Building on January 31, 2024 in Washington, DC.

    Alex Wong | Getty Images

    Mark Zuckerberg started Meta‘s earnings call by talking about artificial intelligence. Then he moved onto the metaverse, touting his company’s headsets, glasses and operating system. He spent almost the entirety of his opening remarks focused on the many ways Meta loses money.

    Investors weren’t into it. Meta shares tumbled as much as 19% in extended trading on Wednesday, wiping out more than $200 billion in market cap. The drop came despite Meta reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue for the first quarter.

    Zuckerberg appeared ready for the sell-off.

    “I think it’s worth calling that out, that we’ve historically seen a lot of volatility in our stock during this phase of our product playbook where we’re investing in scaling a new product but aren’t yet monetizing it,” Zuckerberg said. He cited past efforts like short-video service Reels, Stories and the transition to mobile.

    Meta generates 98% of its revenue from digital advertising. But to the extent Zuckerberg talked about ads, he was looking to the future and the ways the company could potentially turn its current investments into ad dollars. In discussing Meta’s effort to build a “leading AI,” Zuckerberg said, “There are several ways to build a massive business here including scaling business messaging, introducing ads or paid content into AI interactions.”

    He spent more time talking about Meta Llama 3, the company’s newest large language model, and the recent rollout of Meta AI, the company’s answer to OpenAI’s ChatGPT. 

    Zuckerberg then moved onto potential opportunities for expansion within the mixed-reality headset market, like a headset for work or fitness. Meta opened up access to the operating system that powers its Quest headsets on Monday, which Zuckerberg said will help the mixed-reality ecosystem grow faster.

    He also talked up Meta’s AR glasses, which he called “the ideal device for an AI assistant because you can let them see what you see and hear what you hear.”

    The Ray-Ban Meta Headliner smart glasses. 

    Jake Piazza | CNBC

    In the meantime, Meta’s Reality Labs unit, which houses the company’s hardware and software for development of the nascent metaverse, continues to bleed cash. Reality Labs reported sales of $440 million for the first quarter and $3.85 billion in losses. The division’s cumulative losses since the end of 2020 topped $45 billion.

    Zuckerberg has bought himself some time.

    Meta’s stock price almost tripled last year and, as of Wednesday’s close, was up 40% in 2024. It reached a record $527.34 in early April.

    After a brutal 2022, during which the company lost about two-thirds of its value, Zuckerberg appears to have regained the confidence of Wall Street.

    The driver for the rally has been a cost-cutting plan that Zuckerberg put in place early last year, when he told investors that 2023 would be the “year of efficiency.” The company slashed headcount and eliminated unnecessary projects in an effort to become a “stronger and more nimble organization.”

    Zuckerberg said Wednesday that the company will continue to operate efficiently, but that shifting existing resources to investments in AI will “grow our investment envelope meaningfully.”

    Capital expenditures for 2024 are anticipated to be in the $35 billion to $40 billion range, an increase from a prior forecast of $30 billion to $37 billion “as we continue to accelerate our infrastructure investments to support our artificial intelligence (AI) roadmap,” Meta said.

    Zuckerberg said he expects to see a “multiyear investment cycle” before Meta’s AI products will scale into profitable services, but noted that the company has a “strong track record” in that department.

    Meta CFO Susan Li echoed Zuckerberg’s remarks and said the company needs to develop advanced models and scale products before they will drive meaningful revenue.

    “While there is tremendous long-term potential, we’re just much earlier on the return curve,” Li said.

    Even before the call began, investors were trimming their holdings. That’s because Meta issued a light revenue forecast for the second quarter, overshadowing the first-quarter beat.

    As the stock plunge intensified, Zuckerberg told investors that if they’re willing to come along for the ride, they may well be rewarded.

    “Historically, investing to build these new scaled experiences in our apps has been a very good long-term investment for us and for investors who stuck with us and the initial signs are quite positive here too,” Zuckerberg said. “But building a leading AI will also be a larger undertaking than the other experiences we’ve added to our apps and this is likely going to take several years.”

    WATCH: AI not yet the ‘lift’ for Meta that Wall Street was expecting

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  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday

    5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday

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    Here are the most important news items that investors need to start their trading day:

    1. On edge

    2. New Netflix focus

    In an aerial view, the Netflix logo is displayed above its corporate offices on January 24, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.

    Mario Tama | Getty Images

    Netflix is making a big change to its earnings routine. The company announced Thursday that it would no longer provide quarterly membership numbers or average revenue per user starting next year, saying it’s focused on revenue and operating margin. That came the same day it reported that memberships rose 16% in the first quarter, to 269.6 million, well above the 264.2 million Wall Street had expected. Netflix also beat earnings and revenue estimates for the quarter. Shares of the company fell about 6% in premarket trading Friday.

    3. Big price tags

    This aerial picture shows homes near the Chesapeake Bay in Centreville, Maryland, on March 4, 2024. 

    Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images

    Mortgage rates are at their highest level of the year, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate now sitting around 7.5% according to Mortgage News Daily. Though mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index, affordability is weakening. Meanwhile, despite a surge in supply, March home sales dropped, largely due to rising mortgage rates. The spring housing market is moving faster and becoming more competitive, with an average home sitting on the market for just 33 days, compared with 38 days in February.

    4. Ticking clock

    A view shows the office of TikTok after the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bill that would give TikTok’s Chinese owner ByteDance about six months to divest the U.S. assets of the short-video app or face a ban, in Culver City, California, March 13, 2024. 

    Mike Blake | Reuters

    TikTok more than doubled its spending on advertisements to over $4.5 million to combat a potential U.S. ban. The increase comes as Congress considers legislation that could push parent company ByteDance to divest from the social media app. TikTok has spent over $2.5 million on television ads alone since March, according to data from AdImpact. With the bill appearing to have key support in the Senate, TikTok’s boosted ad spending could be a last-ditch effort to shut down the discourse, as U.S. lawmakers say they’re concerned about whether ByteDance could protect U.S. users’ personal data from the Chinese government.

    5. A new assistant

    A smart phone is displaying Facebook with the Meta icon visible in the background in this photo illustration. Facebook, which was founded 20 years ago, is seen here in Brussels, Belgium, on February 4, 2024.

    Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    Meta started rolling out its free artificial intelligence assistant, Meta AI, across WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook and Messenger on Thursday, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in a video. The social media company also announced the launch of its newest large language model, called Meta Llama 3, which was used to build the AI assistant. Meta AI can answer questions, create animations and generate images, and it’s partnered with Google and Microsoft to provide answers from both companies’ search engines. “We believe that Meta AI is now the most intelligent AI assistant that you can freely use,” Zuckerberg said in the video.

    And one more thing…

    Taylor Swift attends the 66th GRAMMY Awards at Crypto.com Arena on February 04, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. 

    Neilson Barnard | Getty Images

    Taylor Swift released her 11th studio album, “The Tortured Poets Department,” Friday at midnight ET. She then surprised fans at 2 a.m. ET with news of 15 extra songs. The album features collaborations with Post Malone and Florence + the Machine.

    — CNBC’s Yun Li, Natasha Turak, Sarah Whitten, Diana Olick, Brian Schwartz, Ashley Capoot and NBC News contributed to this report.

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  • Generative AI ‘FOMO’ is driving tech heavyweights to invest billions of dollars in startups

    Generative AI ‘FOMO’ is driving tech heavyweights to invest billions of dollars in startups

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    Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, right, greets OpenAI CEO Sam Altman during the OpenAI DevDay event in San Francisco on Nov. 6, 2023.

    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Tech giants aren’t doing much acquiring these days, due mostly to an unfavorable regulatory environment. But they’re finding other ways to spend billions of dollars on the next big thing.

    Amazon’s $2.75 billion investment in artificial intelligence startup Anthropic, announced this week, was its largest venture deal and the latest example of the AI gold rush that’s prompting the biggest tech companies to fling open their wallets.

    Anthropic is the developer behind the AI model Claude, which competes with GPT from Microsoft-backed OpenAI, and Google’s Gemini. Along with Meta and Apple, they’re all racing to integrate generative AI into their vast portfolios of products and features to ensure they don’t fall behind in a market that’s predicted to top $1 billion in revenue within a decade.

    In 2023, investors pumped $29.1 billion combined into nearly 700 generative AI deals, an increase of more than 260% in value from the prior year, according to PitchBook.

    A significant chunk of that money was strategic, in that it came from tech companies rather than venture capitalists or other institutions. Fred Havemeyer, head of U.S. AI and software research at Macquarie, said a fear of missing out is one factor driving their decisions.

    “They definitely don’t want to miss out on being part of the AI ecosystem,” Havemeyer said. “I definitely think that there’s FOMO in this marketplace.”

    The hefty investments are necessary because AI models are notoriously expensive to build and train, requiring thousands of specialized chips that, to date, have largely come from Nvidia. Meta, which is developing its own model called Llama, has said it’s spending billions on Nvidia’s graphics processing units, one of the many companies that’s helped the chipmaker bolster year-over-year revenue by more than 250%.

    Whether going the building or investing route, there are a finite number of companies that can afford to play in the market. In addition to developing the chips, Nvidia has emerged as one of Silicon Valley’s top investors, taking stakes in a number of emerging AI companies, partly as a way to make sure its technology gets widely deployed. Similarly, Microsoft, Google and Amazon sometimes offer cloud credits as part of their investments.

    In the Amazon-Anthropic deal announced on Wednesday, the two companies said they’ll work closely together in a variety of ways. Anthropic will be using Amazon Web Services for its computing needs as well as Amazon’s chips. Anthropic’s models will be distributed by Amazon to AWS customers.

    Earlier this month, Anthropic launched Claude 3, its most powerful model and one that it says lets users upload photos, charts, documents and other types of unstructured data for analysis and answers.

    Microsoft got into the business of generative AI investing earlier, putting $1 billion into OpenAI in 2019. The size of its investment has since swelled to about $13 billion. Microsoft heavily uses OpenAI’s model and offers open source models on its Azure cloud.

    Alphabet is playing the part of builder and investor. The company has refocused much of its product development on generative AI, and its newly rebranded Gemini model, adding features into search, documents, maps and elsewhere. Last year, Google committed to invest $2 billion in Anthropic, after previously confirming it had taken a 10% stake in the startup alongside a large cloud contract between the two companies.

    In this photo illustration, Gemini Ai is seen on a phone on March 18, 2024 in New York City. 

    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

    Havemeyer said tech giants aren’t just throwing money into the “hype cycle,” as these investments in AI startups align with their product road maps.

    “I don’t think it’s frivolous,” he said.

    Havemeyer said that alliances with big cloud providers not only bring much-needed cash to startups but also help them sign up customers.

    The cloud companies are saying, “Come to us, work on our platform, have native access to the latest and greatest AI models, and also use our infrastructure,” Havemeyer said. “It’s also part of a much larger ecosystem play.”

    “We’re seeing a lot of alliances appearing among those hyperscalers that have substantial scale, infrastructure and very deep pockets,” he added.

    ‘Shape the next decade’

    In recent earnings calls, tech execs reiterated their focus on generative AI, making it clear to investors that they have to spend money to make money, whether it’s on internal development or through investing in startups.

    Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said last year the company was adjusting its “workforce toward the AI-first work we’re doing without adding material number of people to the workforce.” She said Microsoft will continue to prioritize investing in AI as “the thing that’s going to shape the next decade.”

    Leaders of Google, Apple and Amazon have also suggested to investors that they’re willing to cut costs broadly across departments in order to redirect more funding toward their AI efforts.

    Startups are among the beneficiaries.

    Microsoft has taken stakes in Mistral, Figure and Humane, in addition to OpenAI. The company invested in Inflection AI before the startup essentially dissolved and joined Microsoft this month. Mistral is an open source-focused company that uses Azure’s cloud and offers its service to Azure clients.

    Startup Figure AI is developing general-purpose humanoid robots.

    Figure AI

    Figure, a startup seeking to build a robot that walks like a human, has raised money from Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia and was valued last month at $2.6 billion.

    Amazon’s biggest bet is Anthropic, pouring in a total of $4 billion so far. The company has also invested in open source AI platform developer Hugging Face.

    Google’s investments include Essential AI, which is developing consumer AI programs and is backed by AMD and Nvidia. Alphabet and Nvidia are also investors in Runway ML, a generative AI company known for its video-editing and visual effects tools. Others in Nvidia’s portfolio include Mistral, Perplexity and Cohere.

    Meanwhile, many of the Big Tech companies continue to spend internally on developing their own models.

    Microsoft has invested in many of the techniques underpinning generative AI through its Microsoft Research division. Amazon reportedly has plans to train a bigger, more data-hungry model than even OpenAI’s GPT-4.

    Apple researchers recently published details of their work on MM1, a family of small AI models that can take both text and visual input. Apple is in a different position that its peers in that it doesn’t sell a cloud service. Still, the tech giant is reportedly looking for AI partners, including potentially Google in the U.S. and Baidu in China. An Apple representative declined to comment on AI partners.

    Creativity in dealmaking

    Daniel Newman, CEO of technology analysis firm Futurum Group, said tech companies are having to get clever when it comes to investing in AI.

    For example, OpenAI’s investment from Microsoft included profit sharing in a nonprofit wing, as well as credits to use Microsoft’s cloud service. Microsoft’s deal for Inflection AI amounted to an expensive acquihire, with some reports putting the total outlay at $1 billion. As part of the transaction, Microsoft hired Inflection AI founder Mustafa Suleyman to lead Copilot AI initiatives.

    “I think we’re starting to see some some creativity and dealmaking,” said Newman. With respect to Amazon’s agreement with Anthropic, he said an acquisition would be “a lot harder than investing.”

    That’s because regulators across the globe are cracking down on Big Tech, making it more difficult to do sizable acquisitions. Even the investments are attracting scrutiny.

    In January, the Federal Trade Commission announced it will conduct an extensive inquiry into the field’s biggest players in AI, including AmazonAlphabetMicrosoft, Anthropic and OpenAI.

    FTC Chair Lina Khan described the probe as a “market inquiry into the investments and partnerships being formed between AI developers and major cloud service providers.” The regulator has the authority to order companies to file specific reports or answer questions in writing about their businesses.

    “We know regulators are becoming increasingly focused on the traditional path of closing an acquisition,” Newman said. “Right now, the game is having access to the most fundamental IP.”

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    AI hype drives valuations higher as Anthropic looks to raise funding

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  • Reddit pops as much as 70% in NYSE debut after selling shares at top of range

    Reddit pops as much as 70% in NYSE debut after selling shares at top of range

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    Reddit shares jumped as much as 70% in their debut on Thursday in the first initial public offering for a major social media company since Pinterest hit the market in 2019.

    The 19-year-old website that hosts millions of online forums priced its IPO on Wednesday at $34 a share, the top of the expected range. Reddit and selling shareholders raised about $750 million from the offering, with the company collecting about $519 million.

    The stock opened at $47 and reached a high of $57.80. At that price, the company had a market cap of about $10.9 billion. Reddit shares then dropped to $48.64 roughly a half hour after they began trading, giving the company a market cap of about $7.9 billion.

    Trading under the ticker symbol “RDDT,” Reddit is testing investor appetite for new tech stocks after an extended dry spell for IPOs. Since the peak of the technology boom in late 2021, hardly any venture-backed tech companies have gone public and those that have — like Instacart and Klaviyo last year — have underwhelmed. On Wednesday, data center hardware company Astera Labs made its public market debut on Nasdaq and saw its shares soar 72%, underscoring investor excitement over businesses tied to the surge in artificial intelligence.

    At its IPO price, Reddit was valued at about $6.5 billion, a haircut from the company’s private market valuation of $10 billion in 2021, which was a boom year for the tech industry. The mood changed in 2022, as rising interest rates and soaring inflation pushed investors out of high-risk assets. Startups responded by conducting layoffs, trimming their valuations and shifting their focus to profit over growth.

    Reddit’s annual sales for 2023 rose 20% to $804 million from $666.7 million a year earlier, the company detailed in its prospectus. The company recorded a net loss of $90.8 million last year, narrower than its loss of $158.6 million in 2022.

    Based on its revenue over the past four quarters, Reddit’s market cap at IPO gave it a price-to-sales ratio of about 8. Alphabet trades for 6.1 times revenue, Meta has a multiple of 9.7, Pinterest’s sits at 7.5 and Snap trades for 3.9 times sales, according to FactSet.

    In addition to those companies, Reddit also counts X, Discord, Wikipedia and Amazon’s Twitch streaming service as competitors in its prospectus.

    Reddit is betting that data licensing could become a major source of revenue, and said in its filing that it’s entered “certain data licensing arrangements with an aggregate contract value of $203.0 million and terms ranging from two to three years.” This year, Reddit said it plans to recognize roughly $66.4 million in revenue as part of its data licensing deals.

    Google has also entered into an expanded partnership with Reddit, allowing the search giant to obtain more access to Reddit data to train AI models and improve its products.

    Reddit revealed on March 15 that the Federal Trade Commission is conducting a nonpublic inquiry “focused on our sale, licensing, or sharing of user-generated content with third parties to train AI models.” Reddit said it was “not surprised that the FTC has expressed interest” in the company’s data licensing practices related to AI, and that it doesn’t believe that it has “engaged in any unfair or deceptive trade practice.”

    Reddit was founded in 2005 by technology entrepreneurs Alexis Ohanian and Steve Huffman, the company’s CEO. Existing stakeholders, including Huffman, sold a combined 6.7 million shares in the IPO.

    As part of the IPO, Reddit gave some of its top moderators and users, known as Redditors, a chance to buy stock through a directed-share program. Companies like Airbnb, Doximity and Rivian have used similar programs to reward their power users and customers.

    “I hope they believe in Reddit and support Reddit,” Huffman told CNBC in an interview on Thursday. “But the goal is just to get them in the deal. Just like any professional investor.”

    Redditors have expressed skepticism about the IPO, both because of the company’s financials and its often troubled relationship with moderators. Huffman said he recognizes that reality and acknowledged the controversial subreddit Wallstreetbets, which helped spawn the surge in meme stocks like GameStop.

    “That’s the beautiful thing about Reddit, is that they tell it like it is,” Huffman said. “But you have to remember they’re doing that on Reddit. It’s a platform they love, it’s their home on the internet.”

    OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is one of Reddit’s major shareholders along with Tencent and Advance Magazine Publishers, the parent company of publishing giant Condé Nast. Altman’s stake in the company was worth over $400 million before the stock began trading. Altman led a $50 million funding round into Reddit in 2014 and was a member of its board from 2015 through 2022.

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  • Reddit prices IPO at $34 per share in first major social media offering since 2019

    Reddit prices IPO at $34 per share in first major social media offering since 2019

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    In this photo illustration a Reddit logo is seen displayed on a smartphone.

    Mateusz Slodkowski | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Reddit, the 19-year-old website that hosts millions of online forums, priced its IPO on Wednesday at $34 a share, the top of the expected range.

    The offering brought in $519 million, according to a press release, and values the company at close to $6.5 billion. Reddit had planned to price the deal at $31 to $34 a share.

    Reddit’s public market debut on Thursday, under ticker symbol “RDDT,” will be the first for a major social media company since Pinterest’s debut in 2019 and one of the very few venture-backed tech deals of the past two years. Reddit sold 15.28 million shares in the offering, while existing shareholders sold another 6.72 million.

    The company is taking a haircut from its private market valuation of $10 billion in 2021 at the peak of the tech boom. Soaring inflation and rising interest rates pushed investors out of risky assets in 2022, eventually forcing startups to downsize, slash their valuations and focus on profit over growth.

    On Wednesday, data center hardware company Astera Labs went public, and saw its shares skyrocket 72%, as investors flock to anything involving artificial intelligence. However, the IPO market has been in an extended dry spell for more than two years, with Instacart, Klaviyo and Arm Holdings among the few tech companies to hold offerings over that stretch.

    Reddit’s core business of online advertising faces competition from industry giants like Alphabet and Meta. The company also counts Snap, X, Pinterest, Discord, Wikipedia and Amazon’s Twitch streaming service as competitors, according to its prospectus.

    Revenue increased 20% last year to $804 from $666.7 million in 2022. Its net loss in 2023 was $90.8 million, marking an improvement from the $158.6 million net loss it recorded the previous year.

    The company has said in filings that data licensing could become a big money maker, and that it plans to recognize about $66.4 million in such deals in 2024. The company recently entered an expanded partnership with Google, allowing the search giant more access to Reddit data to train AI models and other tasks.

    Last week, Reddit said the Federal Trade Commission sent a letter to the company inquiring about its data-licensing practices.

    As part of the initial public offering, Reddit gave some of its leading moderators and users, known as Redditors, a chance to buy stock through a directed-share program. It’s a model that was previously used by Airbnb, Doximity and Rivian to reward their power users and customers.

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  • Time to sell Nvidia? How to trade stocks that have ‘gone parabolic’

    Time to sell Nvidia? How to trade stocks that have ‘gone parabolic’

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  • Nvidia posts record revenue up 265% on booming AI business

    Nvidia posts record revenue up 265% on booming AI business

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    Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang attends a media roundtable meeting in Singapore on Dec. 6, 2023.

    Edgar Su | Reuters

    Nvidia reported fourth fiscal quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s forecast for earnings and sales, and said that revenue during the current quarter would be better than expected, even against elevated expectations for massive growth.

    Nvidia shares rose about 6% in extended trading.

    Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting for the quarter ending in January, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    • Earnings: $5.15 per share, adjusted, versus $4.64 per share expected.
    • Revenue: $22.10 billion, versus $20.62 billion expected.

    Nvidia said it expected $24.0 billion in sales in the current quarter. Analysts polled by LSEG were looking for $5.00 per share on $22.17 billion in sales. 

    Nvidia reported $12.29 billion in net income during the quarter, or $4.93 per share, up 769% versus last year’s $1.41 billion or 57 cents per share. 

    Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of the recent technology industry obsession with large artificial intelligence models, which are developed on the company’s pricey graphics processors for servers.

    Nvidia’s total revenue rose 265% from a year ago, based on strong sales for AI chips for servers, particularly the company’s “Hopper” chips like the H100, it said.

    “Strong demand was driven by enterprise software and consumer internet applications, and multiple industry verticals including automotive, financial services, and healthcare,” the company said in commentary provided to investors.

    Those sales are reported in the company’s Data Center business, which now comprises the majority of Nvidia’s revenue. Data center sales were up 409% to $18.40 billion. Over half of the company’s data center sales went to large cloud providers.

    Nvidia said its data center revenue was hurt by recent U.S. restrictions on exporting advanced AI semiconductors to China.

    The company’s gaming business, which includes graphics cards for laptops and PCs, was merely up 56% year-over-year to $2.87 billion. Graphics cards for gaming used to be Nvidia’s primary business before its AI chips started taking off, and some of Nvidia’s graphics cards can be used for AI.

    Nvidia’s smaller businesses did not show the same meteoric growth. Its automotive business declined 4% to $281 million in sales, and its OEM and other business, which includes crypto chips, rose 7% to $90 million. Nvidia’s business making graphics hardware for professional applications rose 105% to $463 million.

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  • Palo Alto Networks will see further upside as hacking threats intensify from overseas

    Palo Alto Networks will see further upside as hacking threats intensify from overseas

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  • Magnificent 7 profits now exceed almost every country in the world. Should we be worried?

    Magnificent 7 profits now exceed almost every country in the world. Should we be worried?

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    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on January 31, 2024 in New York City.

    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

    The so-called “Magnificent 7” now wields greater financial might than almost every other major country in the world, according to new Deutsche Bank research.

    The meteoric rise in the profits and market capitalizations of the Magnificent 7 U.S. tech behemoths — Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — outstrip those of all listed companies in almost every G20 country, the bank said in a research note Tuesday. Of the non-U.S. G20 countries, only China and Japan (and the latter, only just) have greater profits when their listed companies are combined.

    Deutsche Bank analysts highlighted that the Magnificent 7’s combined market cap alone would make it the second-largest country stock exchange in the world, double that of Japan in fourth. Microsoft and Apple, individually, have similar market caps to all combined listed companies in each of France, Saudi Arabia and the U.K, they added.

    However, this level of concentration has led some analysts to voice concerns over related risks in the U.S. and global stock market.

    Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s head of global economics and thematic research, cautioned in a follow-up note last week that the U.S. stock market is “rivalling 2000 and 1929 in terms of being its most concentrated in history.”

    Deutsche analyzed the trajectories of all 36 companies that have been in the top five most valuable in the S&P 500 since the mid-1960s.

    Reid noted that while big companies eventually tended to drop out of the top five as investment trends and profit outlooks evolved, 20 of the 36 that have populated that upper bracket are still in the top 50 today.

    “Of the Mag 7 in the current top 5, Microsoft has been there for all but 4 months since 1997. Apple ever present since December 2009, Alphabet for all but two months since August 2012 and Amazon since January 2017. The newest entrant has been Nvidia which has been there since H1 last year,” he said.

    Tesla had a run of 13 months in the top five most valuable companies in 2021/22 but is now down to 10th, with the share price having fallen by around 20% since the start of 2024. By contrast, Nvidia’s stock has continued to surge, adding almost 47% since the turn of the year.

    “So, at the edges the Mag 7 have some volatility around the position of its members, and you can question their overall valuations, but the core of the group have been the largest and most successful companies in the US and with it the world for many years now,” Reid added.

    Could the gains broaden out?

    Despite a muted global economic outlook at the start of 2023, stock market returns on Wall Street were impressive, but heavily concentrated among the Magnificent Seven, which benefitted strongly from the AI hype and rate cut expectations.

    In a research note last week, wealth manager Evelyn Partners highlighted that the Magnificent 7 returned an incredible 107% over 2023, far outpacing the broader MSCI USA index, which delivered a still healthy but relatively paltry 27% to investors.

    Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at Evelyn Partners, suggested that signs are emerging that opportunities in U.S. stocks could broaden out beyond the 7 megacaps this year for two reasons, the first of which is the resilience of the U.S. economy.

    “Despite rising interest rates, company sales and earnings have been resilient. This can be attributed to businesses being more disciplined on managing their costs and households having higher levels of savings built up during the pandemic. In addition, the U.S. labour market is healthy with nearly three million jobs added during 2023,” Casali said.

    Nvidia has an 'iron grip' on the market, says RSE Ventures' Matt Higgins

    The second factor is improving margins, which Casali said indicates that companies have adeptly raised prices and passed the impact of higher inflation onto customers.

    “Although wages have risen, they haven’t kept pace with those price rises, leading to a decline in employment costs as a proportion of the price of goods and services,” Casali said.

    “Factors, including China joining the World Trade Organisation and technological advances, have enabled an increased supply of labour and accessibility to overseas job markets. This has contributed to improving profit margins, supporting earnings growth. We see this trend continuing.”

    When the market is so heavily weighted toward a small number of stocks and one particular theme — notably AI — there is a risk of missed investment opportunities, Casali said.

    Many of the 493 other S&P 500 stocks have struggled over the past year, but he suggested that some could start to participate in the rally if the two aforementioned factors continue to fuel the economy.

    “Given AI-led stocks’ stellar performance in 2023 and the beginning of this year, investors may feel inclined to continue to back them,” he said.

    “But, if the rally starts to widen, investors could miss out on other opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven stocks.”

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  • Companies — profitable or not — make 2024 the year of cost cuts

    Companies — profitable or not — make 2024 the year of cost cuts

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    Mathisworks | Digitalvision Vectors | Getty Images

    Corporate America has a message for Wall Street: It’s serious about cutting costs this year.

    From toy and cosmetics makers to office software sellers, executives across sectors have announced layoffs and other plans to slash expenses — even at some companies that are turning a profit. Barbie maker Mattel, PayPal, Cisco, Nike, Estée Lauder and Levi Strauss are just a few of the firms that have cut jobs in recent weeks.

    Department store retailer Macy’s said it will close five of its namesake department stores and cut more than 2,300 jobs. JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines have offered staff buyouts, while United Airlines cut first-class meals on some of its shortest flights.

    As consumers watch their wallets, companies have felt pressure from investors to do the same. Executives have sought to show shareholders that they’re adjusting to consumer demand as it returns to typical patterns or even softens, as well as aggressively countering higher expenses.

    Airlines, automakers, media companies and package giant UPS are all digesting new labor contracts that gave raises to tens of thousands of workers and drove costs higher.

    Companies in years past could get away with passing on higher costs to customers who were willing to splurge on everything from new appliances to beach vacations. But businesses’ pricing power has waned, so executives are looking for other ways to manage the budget — or squeeze out more profits, said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY.

    “You are in an environment where cost fatigue is very much part of the equation for consumers and business leaders,” Daco said. “The cost of most everything is much higher than it was before the pandemic, whether it’s goods, inputs, equipment, labor, even interest rates.”

    There are some exceptions to the recent cost-cutting wave: Walmart, for example, said last month that it would build or convert more than 150 stores over the next five years, along with a more than $9 billion investment to modernize many of its current stores.

    And some companies, such as banks, already made deep cuts. Five of the largest banks, including Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, together eliminated more than 20,000 jobs in 2023. Now, they’re awaiting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that would free up cash for pent-up mergers and acquisitions.

    But cost reductions unveiled in even just the first few weeks of the year amount to tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars. In January, U.S. companies announced 82,307 job cuts, more than double the number in December, while still down 20% from a year ago, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas.

    And the tightening of months prior is already showing up in financial reports.

    So far this earnings season, results have indicated that companies have focused on driving profits higher without the tailwind of big price increases and sales growth.

    As of mid-February, more than three-quarters of the S&P 500 had reported fourth-quarter results, with far more earnings beats than revenue beats. The quarter’s earnings, measured by a composite of S&P 500 companies, are on pace to rise nearly 10%. Revenues, however, are up a more modest 3.4%.

    Layoffs, flight cuts and store closures

    While companies’ drive for higher profits isn’t new, they have made bolstering the bottom line a priority this year.

    Downsizing has rippled across the tech industry, as companies followed the lead of Meta’s 2023 cuts, which many analysts credited with helping the social media giant rebound from a rough 2022. CEO Mark Zuckerberg had dubbed 2023 the “year of efficiency” for the parent of Facebook and Instagram, as it slashed the size of its workforce and vowed to carry forward its leaner approach.

    In recent weeks, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Cisco, among others, have announced staffing reductions.

    And the layoffs haven’t been contained to tech. UPS said it was axing 12,000 jobs, saving the company $1 billion, CEO Carol Tome said late last month, citing softer demand. Many of the largest retail, media and entertainment companies have also announced workforce reductions, in addition to other cuts.

    Warner Bros. Discovery has slashed content spending and headcount as part of $4 billion in total cost savings from the merger of Discovery and WarnerMedia. Disney initially promised $5.5 billion in cost reductions in 2023, fueled by 7,000 layoffs. The company has since increased its savings promise to $7.5 billion, and executives suggested in its Feb. 7 quarterly earnings report that it may exceed that target.

    Last week, Paramount Global announced hundreds of layoffs in an effort to “operate as a leaner company and spend less,” according to CEO Bob Bakish. Comcast’s NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC, has also recently eliminated jobs.

    JetBlue Airways, which hasn’t posted an annual profit since before the pandemic, is deferring about $2.5 billion in capital expenditures on new Airbus planes to the end of the decade, culling unprofitable routes and redeploying aircraft in addition to the worker buyouts.

    Delta Air Lines, which is profitable, in November said it was cutting some office jobs, calling it a “small adjustment.”

    Some cuts are even making their way to the front of the cabin. United Airlines, which also posted a profit in 2023, at the start of this year said it would serve first-class meals only on flights more than 900 miles, up from 800 miles previously. “On flights that are 301 to 900 miles, United First customers can expect an offering from the premium snack basket,” according to an internal post.

    Several of the country’s largest automakers, such as General Motors and Ford Motor, have lowered spending by billions of dollars through reduced or delayed investments on all-electric vehicles. The U.S.-based companies as well as others, such as Netherlands-based Stellantis, have recently reduced headcount and payroll through voluntary buyouts or layoffs.

    Even Chipotle, which reported more foot traffic and sales at its restaurants in the most recently reported quarter, is chasing higher productivity by testing an avocado-scooping robot called the Autocado that shortens the time it takes to make guacamole. It’s also testing another robot that can put together burrito bowls and salads. The robots, if expanded to other stores, could help cut costs by minimizing food waste or reducing the number of workers needed for those tasks.

    Shifting patterns

    Industry experts have chalked up some recent cuts to companies catching their breath — and taking a hard look at how they operate — after an unusual four-year stretch caused by the pandemic and its fallout.

    EY’s Daco said the past few years have been marked by a mismatch in supply and demand when it comes to goods, services and even workers.

    Customers went on shopping sprees, fueled by government stimulus and less experience-related spending. Airlines saw demand disappear and then skyrocket. Companies furloughed workers in the early pandemic and then struggled to fill jobs.

    He said he expects companies this year to “search for an equilibrium.”

    “You’re seeing a rebalancing happening in the labor markets, in the capital markets,” he said. “And that rebalancing is still going to play out and gradually lead to a more sustainable environment of lower inflation and lower interest rates, and perhaps a little bit slower growth.”

    The auto industry, for example, faced a supply issue during much of the Covid pandemic but is now facing a potential demand problem. Inventories of new vehicles are rising — surpassing 2.5 million units and 71 days’ supply toward the end of 2023, up 57% year over year, according to Cox Automotive — forcing automakers to extend more discounts in an effort to move cars and trucks off dealer lots.

    Automakers have also been contending with slower-than-expected adoption of EVs.

    David Silverman, a retail analyst at Fitch Ratings, said companies are “feeling a bit heavy as sales growth moderates and maybe even declines.”

    Cost cuts at UPS, Hasbro and Levi all followed sales declines in the most recent fiscal quarter. Macy’s, which reports earnings later this month, has said it expects same-store sales to drop, and there’s early evidence that may come to bear: Consumers pulled back on spending in January, with retail sales falling 0.8%, more than economists expected, according to the latest federal data.

    Most major retailers, including Walmart, Target and Home Depot, will report earnings in the coming weeks.

    Credit ratings agency Fitch said it doesn’t expect the U.S. economy to tip into recession, but it does anticipate a continued pullback in discretionary spending.

    “Part of companies’ decision to lower their expense structure is in line with their views that 2024 may not be a fantastic year from a top-line-growth standpoint,” Silverman said.

    Plus, he added, companies have had to find cash to fund investments in newer technology such as infrastructure that supports e-commerce, a resilient supply chain or investments in artificial intelligence.

    Forward momentum

    Companies may have another reason to cut costs now, too. As they see other companies shrinking the size of their workforces or budgets, there’s safety in numbers.

    Or as Silverman noted, “layoffs beget layoffs.”

    “As companies have started to announce them it becomes normalized,” he said. “There’s less of a stigma.”

    Even with rolling layoffs, the labor market remains strong, which may help explain why Wall Street has by and large rewarded those companies that have found areas to save and returned profits to shareholders.

    Shares of Meta, for example, almost tripled in price in 2023 in that “year of efficiency,” making the stock the second-best gainer in the S&P 500, behind only Nvidia. After laying off more than 20,000 workers in 2023, Meta on Feb. 2 announced its first-ever dividend and said it expanded its share buyback authorization by $50 billion.

    UPS, fresh from job cuts, said it would raise its quarterly dividend by a penny.

    Overall, dividends paid by companies in the S&P 500 rose 5.05% last year, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, and he estimated they will likely increase nearly 5.3% this year.

    — CNBC’s Michael Wayland, Alex Sherman, Robert Hum, Amelia Lucas and Jonathan Vanian contributed to this story.

    Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.

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  • Here are 10 undervalued stocks in our portfolio despite some of them around record highs

    Here are 10 undervalued stocks in our portfolio despite some of them around record highs

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    A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

    Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    With the S&P 500 on Friday closing above 5,000 for the first time ever, recognizing the winners this year has not been difficult. But what about the ones that are still cheap — or less expensive — on a valuation basis? Those are not as easy to spot.

    We screened the 32 stocks in our portfolio late Monday and identified 10 that are undervalued based on traditional market metrics following their latest quarterly earnings reports. (The market was under heavy pressure Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected consumer price index.)

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  • Biden campaign debuts official TikTok account, but app is still banned on most government devices

    Biden campaign debuts official TikTok account, but app is still banned on most government devices

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    U.S. President Joe Biden arrives at John F. Kennedy International Airport, in New York City, U.S., February 7, 2024. 

    Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

    President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign launched an official TikTok account Sunday evening. The account is noteworthy because TikTok is currently banned on most U.S. government-issued devices.

    The TikTok account, with the handle “@bidenhq,” debuted Sunday during Lunar New Year celebrations in China and Super Bowl 58 in the U.S.

    In late 2022, Biden signed legislation that barred most federal government-owned devices from using TikTok. The provision was part of a massive omnibus spending bill and, at the time, it represented a major win for China hawks in Congress.

    Several states and New York City also followed suit, banning TikTok on government-owned devices last year, pointing to a wide range of security concerns.

    TikTok’s parent company is China-based ByteDance. The company’s CEO Shou Zi Chew is Singaporean and a graduate of Harvard Business School.

    One of TikTok’s biggest outside investors is Susquehanna International Group. Billionaire co-founder of the firm, Jeffrey Yass, has donated millions to lawmakers who want to block an outright ban of the app in the states.

    Several U.S. lawmakers have accused TikTok, and other social media platforms, of spreading content online that has been harmful to children’s mental health and failing to protect kids online.

    Biden campaign advisors told NBC News the TikTok account is part of an effort to meet voters where they are.

    The app remains essential to younger people, including of those of voting age in the U.S. According to Pew Research data released in late 2023, about a third of 18-29 year olds in the U.S. said they regularly get news on TikTok, a higher share than ever before.

    Tighter regulation of social media companies including TikTok, Meta, Snap, Discord and X (formerly Twitter) represented a rare issue of bipartisan agreement during a Senate hearing on child safety last month.

    The Biden White House has carried on a love-hate relationship with TikTok since Biden took office. On one hand, the administration openly courted TikTok stars and content producers to help spread public service messages and engage young people with civic events.

    But as China-skeptical lawmakers ratcheted up their campaign against the company in recent years, the Biden White House tacitly agreed with them, going so far as to reportedly pressure ByteDance to sell TikTok.

    CNBC’s Jonathan Vanian contributed reporting.

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  • Pinterest shares plunge on weak revenue and forecast

    Pinterest shares plunge on weak revenue and forecast

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    A display for image sharing and social media service Pinterest is seen at the Collision conference in Toronto, Ontario, Canada June 23, 2022.

    Chris Helgren | Reuters

    Pinterest shares plummeted in extended trading on Thursday after the company issued a weaker-than-expected forecast and missed on revenue.

    • Revenue: $981 million vs. $991 million expected, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv.
    • Earnings: 53 cents per share, adjusted, vs. 51 cents per share expected, according to LSEG.

    Revenue rose 12% year-over-year from $877.2 million a year earlier, while net income was $201 million, or 29 cents a share, up from the $17.49 million, or 3 cents a share, it brought in the previous year.

    Monthly active users in the fourth quarter rose 11% to 498 million, topping analyst estimates of 487 million. The company said its global average revenue per user was $2, lower than analyst estimates of $2.05.

    Pinterest said first-quarter revenue will be between $690 million and $705 million, which equates to year-over-year growth of 15% to 17%. The middle of that range, $697.5 million, is below the average analyst estimate of $703 million.

    The stock initially sank as much as 28% to an after-hours low of $29.40. It then pared some of its losses, climbing back to $35.19, representing a 14% decline.

    The company’s report comes as the broader digital advertising market is showing recovery, with Meta, Alphabet and Amazon all picking up steam and growing their ad business by double digits in the fourth quarter. The data suggests that businesses are boosting spending on online promotions after cutting back in 2022 and part of 2023 over concerns about the Ukraine-Russian war and high interest rates.

    But not all online ad companies are seeing the benefits. Snap shares cratered 35% on Wednesday after the company reported fourth-quarter sales growth of 5%, trailing expectations, and the company also issued weak guidance.

    Prior to Thursday’s report, Pinterest shares were up 9.5% this year after surging 53% in 2023.

    Costs dropped about 10% from a year ago to $785 million, largely due to a decline in sales and marketing expenses. A year ago Pinterest slashed about 5% of its workforce, part of an industrywide downsizing.

    WATCH: CNBC’s full interview with Snap CEP Evan Spiegel

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  • Snap plunges 30% on revenue miss and light guidance, as company says Middle East war creates ‘headwind’

    Snap plunges 30% on revenue miss and light guidance, as company says Middle East war creates ‘headwind’

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    Snap Inc. co-founder and CEO Evan Spiegel speaks during the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups, at the Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris, June 17, 2022.

    Benoit Tessier | Reuters

    Snap on Tuesday reported revenue that trailed analysts’ estimates and issued a forecast that came in a bit below Wall Street expectations. The stock plunged 30% in extended trading.

    Here’s how the company did:

    • Earnings per share: 8 cents adjusted vs. 6 cents expected by analysts, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv
    • Revenue: $1.36 billion vs. $1.38 billion expected, according to LSEG
    • Global daily active users: 414 million vs. 412 million expected, according to StreetAccount
    • Average revenue per user: $3.29 vs. $3.33 expected, according to StreetAccount

    Snap has struggled to rebound from the downturn in the digital ad market and has now reported six straight quarters of single-digit growth or sales declines. For the fourth quarter, revenue rose about 5% year over year to $1.36 billion from $1.3 billion a year earlier.

    The company attributed some of the weakness to the war in the Middle East, which erupted in October, beginning with Hamas’ attack on Israel.

    “While we are encouraged by the progress we are making with our ad platform and the improved results we are delivering for many of our advertising partners, we estimate that the onset of the conflict in the Middle East was a headwind to year-over-year growth of approximately 2 percentage points in Q4,” Snap said in a letter to investors.

    Growth is expected to accelerate in the first quarter, but not quite as fast as analysts were expecting. Snap forecast sales for the quarter of $1.095 billion to $1.135 billion, representing about 11% growth at the midpoint of the range, which was $1.115 billion. Analysts were looking for revenue of $1.117 billion.

    Daily active users for the first quarter will be 420 million, Snap said, slightly topping analyst estimates of 419.3 million.

    Snap shares sank below $12 after Tuesday’s report. They closed at $17.45 and were up 3% for the year prior to the earnings announcement after soaring 89% in 2023.

    Earlier this week, Snap said it would cut 10% of its global workforce, which equates to about 500 employees. A company spokesperson told CNBC in a statement that the cuts were intended to reorganize staff and “reduce hierarchy and promote in-person collaboration.” In mid-2022, Snap eliminated about 1,000 employees, or 20% of its full-time workforce.

    Snap’s net loss for the quarter narrowed to $248.2 million, or 15 cents a share, which represents a 14% year-over-year decrease from $288.5 million, or 18 cents a share.

    The company said it expects an adjusted EBITDA loss between $55 million and $95 million in the first quarter, higher than analyst projections of $21.9 million. Last quarter, Snap issued an “internal forecast” for the fourth quarter instead of providing official guidance because of “the unpredictable nature of war,” it said, referring to the Israel-Hamas war.

    Snap on Tuesday disclosed sales in its Snapchat+ subscription service for the first time and said it had an annualized revenue run rate of $249 million in 2023. The service now has 7 million subscribers, up from 5 million in the previous quarter. Snap introduced the product in 2022, pitching it as a way for users to access early features. It debuted that summer for $3.99 a month.

    The social messaging company’s growth in the fourth quarter lagged larger digital ad rivals such as Meta, Amazon and Alphabet, which all reported double-digit expansion in their advertising units.

    Snap and Pinterest are “much smaller companies that have struggled to build substantial ad businesses,” Debra Aho Williamson, an industry analyst, told CNBC. “In this environment, the big are getting bigger.”

    Last week, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel attended a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on child safety and technology alongside Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, X CEO Linda Yaccarino, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew and Discord CEO Jason Citron. Lawmakers grilled the executives, accusing them of failing to properly safeguard their respective social media platforms from child predators, among other concerns.

    Pinterest will report fourth-quarter earnings Thursday.

    WATCH: Social media apps such as Facebook ‘are doing great harm,’ says Project Liberty founder

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street rattled over Fed worries

    CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street rattled over Fed worries

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    A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 31, 2024. 

    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Wall Street retreats
    U.S. stocks
    lost ground on Monday and Treasury yields rose amid lingering concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as much as expected. The blue-chip Dow fell over 200 points. The S&P 500 also slumped after hitting a record high last week. The Nasdaq Composite also dropped 0.2%. 

    Oil’s supply crunch
    The oil market faces a supply crunch by the end of 2025 as the world is not replacing crude reserves fast enough, according to Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub. About 97% of the oil produced today was discovered in the 20th century, she told CNBC. 

    Palantir surges
    Shares of Palantir spiked 19% in extended trading after the company reported revenue that topped analysts’ estimates. In a letter to shareholders, Palantir CEO Alex Karp said demand for large language models in the U.S. “continues to be unrelenting.”

    Red Sea tensions
    Higher shipping costs due to tensions in the Red Sea could hinder the global fight against inflation, said the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Clare Lombardelli, chief economist at the OECD, told CNBC that shipping-driven inflation pressures remain a risk rather than its base case.

    [PRO] Banking allure
    The banking sector offers attractive opportunities despite an increase in volatility, according to fund manager Cole Smead. “It’s the banks that made bad decisions that are making [other] banks look attractive in pricing,” Smead told CNBC, who picked two bank stocks that are in play. 

    The bottom line

    Investors are once again getting ahead of themselves on the Fed’s next move.

    Markets were rattled after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank is unlikely to rush to lower interest rates. 

    Wall Street has been parsing his hawkish comments, yet in essence what Powell said over the weekend was no different than what he shared at Wednesday’s press conference: that he wants to see more evidence that inflation is coming down to a sustainable level.

    Still, the debate over the timing of rate cuts unsettled Fed watchers.  

    This sparked a sell-off spurred by higher bond yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury spiked for a second day, trading around 4.163%. Typically, higher yields tend to indicate investors think the Fed will take longer to cut rates. 

    Fresh data out Monday also didn’t help.  A new survey showed the U.S. services sector expand at a faster-than-expected clip in January. 

    This on top of the booming jobs report released Friday, fueled investor worries that rates may stay elevated for much longer.

    Wall Street will now look ahead to the swath of Fed speakers this week. Perhaps they will shed more light on the path for rate cuts.

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  • Stock investors fear ‘no-landing’ economy could spell trouble. What’s next?.

    Stock investors fear ‘no-landing’ economy could spell trouble. What’s next?.

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    While the U.S. stock market has been pricing in a “soft-landing” scenario for the economy, a blowout January jobs report, relatively strong corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s comments during the past week could point to the possibility of “no landing,” where the economy is resilient while inflation stays on target.  

    Such a scenario could still be positive for U.S. stocks, as long as inflation remains steady, according to Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm. However, if inflation reaccelerates, the Fed may be hesitant to cut its policy interest rate much, which could spell trouble, Flax said in a call. 

    What the past week tells us

    Investors have just gone through the busiest week so far this year for economic data and corporate earnings reports, with stocks ending at or near their record highs.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    finished the week with its nineth record close of 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 index
    SPX
    scored its seventh record close this year on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    is about 2.7% lower from its peak.

    The Fed kept its policy interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% at its Wednesday meeting, as expected. However, in the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw cold water on market expectations that the central bank may start cutting its key interest rate in March, and underscored that they want “greater confidence” in disinflation. 

    Roger Ferguson, former Fed vice chairman, said Powell introduced “a new kind of risk, the risk of no landing.” 

    In that scenario, inflation will stop falling, while the economy is strong, Ferguson said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. However, Ferguson said he doesn’t think it is the likely outcome.   

    Traders were pricing in a 20.5% likelihood on Friday that the Fed will cut its interest rates in its March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool and that’s down from over 46% chance a week ago. The likelihood that the Fed will kick off its rate cutting program in May stood at 58.6% on Friday.  

    The stronger-than-expected January jobs data released on Friday further eliminates the chance of a rate cut in March, said Flax. 

    The U.S. economy added a whopping 353,000 new jobs in January while economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 185,000 increase in new jobs. Hourly wages rose a sharp 0.6% in January, the biggest increase in almost two years.

    The past week has also been heavy with earnings reports, as several tech giants including Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +1.84%
    ,
    Apple
    AAPL,
    -0.54%
    ,
    Meta
    META,
    +20.32%
    ,
    and Amazon
    AMZN,
    +7.87%

    reported their financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023. 

    Among the 220 S&P 500 companies that have reported their earnings so far, 68% have beaten estimates, with their earnings exceeding the expectation by a median of 7%, analysts at Fundstrat wrote in a Friday note.  

    While the reported earnings by big tech companies have been “okay,” the guidance was not, said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

    What has been driving the tech stocks’ rally since last year was mostly the prospect of sales from artificial intelligence products, but tech companies are not able to monetize the trend yet, Torres said in a phone interview. 

    Adding to the headwinds is a comeback of concerns around regional banks. 

    On Thursday, New York Community Bancorp Inc.’s stock triggered the steepest drop in regional-bank stocks since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023. New York Community Bancorp on Wednesday posted a surprise loss and signaled challenges in the commercial real estate sector with troubled loans.

    Meanwhile, the Fed’s bank term funding program, which was launched in March last year to bolster the capacity of the banking system, will expire on March 11. 

    If the Fed could start cutting its key interest rate in March, it would be “sort of like the ambulance that was going to pick regional banks up and save them,” said Torres. “Now the ambulance is coming in May at the earliest, I think that we’re in a particularly risky period from now to May,” Torres said. 

    What should investors do 

    Investors should go risk-off before May, according to Torres. “Last year, goods and commodities helped a lot on the disinflationary front. This year for disinflation to continue, we’re going to need services to start contributing to that. Then we’re going to need to see an increase in the unemployment rate,” Torres said. 

    He said he prefers U.S. Treasurys with a tenor of four years or shorter, as the long-dated ones may be susceptible to risks around the fiscal deficit and government borrowing. For stocks, he prefers the healthcare, utilities, consumer staples and energy sectors, he said. 

    Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, is more optimistic. The slowdown in inflation and the relatively strong economic data and earnings “don’t really paint a picture for a risk-off scenario,” he said. “The setup for risk assets still leans towards the bullish expectation,” Buchanan added. 

    In the week ahead, investors will be watching the ISM services sector data on Monday, the U.S. trade deficit on Wednesday and weekly initial jobless benefit claims numbers on Thursday. Several Fed officials will speak as well, potentially providing more clues on the possible trajectory of rate cuts.

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  • Algorithms, bias and hallucinations: 20 important AI terms investors should know

    Algorithms, bias and hallucinations: 20 important AI terms investors should know

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  • Mark Zuckerberg could pay millions to the IRS on Meta dividends. He still might be getting ‘a major break’.

    Mark Zuckerberg could pay millions to the IRS on Meta dividends. He still might be getting ‘a major break’.

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    Mark Zuckerberg delighted Meta shareholders and Wall Street this week with news of the social media giant’s first-ever dividend.

    The IRS may also be happy, now that it’s staring at millions in taxes on the Meta stock dividends bound for Zuckerberg’s portfolio.

    Zuckerberg, the CEO of Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +20.32%
    ,
    is poised to make $700 million in dividends yearly. He owns nearly 350 million shares, according to FactSet, and the company will start paying a quarterly dividend of 50 cents a share.

    That would yield nearly $167 million in federal taxes yearly, after a qualified-dividend tax of 20% and another 3.8% tax on the investment returns of rich households, two accounting experts said.

    California income taxes of 13.3% on the dividends could cost Zuckerberg another $93.1 million, said Andrew Belnap, an accounting professor at the University of Texas at Austin’s McCombs School of Business.

    All in, that’s a combined $259.7 million in federal and state taxes annually on the Meta dividends, Belnap estimated.

    For context, U.S. taxpayers reported over $285 billion in qualified-dividend income to the IRS though mid-November 2023, according to agency statistics. Nearly 30 million tax returns reported qualified dividends through that time.

    Meta said it plans a quarterly cash dividend going forward, with the first such payment in March.

    Meta shares soared 20.5% on Friday, ending with a record-high close of $474.99. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    S&P 500
    SPX
    and Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    all closed higher Friday.

    ‘Zuck is getting a major break’

    Meta announced the dividend payment in its earnings results Thursday, on the same week that Americans began filing their income taxes.

    A look at Zuckerberg’s dividends and their tax implications offer a peek at the debate about the varying ways wages and wealth are taxed.

    “Zuck is getting a major break,” said Andrew Schmidt, an accounting professor at North Carolina State University’s Poole School of Management who also crunched the numbers for MarketWatch.

    Approximately $167 million “seems like a high tax bill,” he said. But if Zuckerberg received the $700 million as a straight salary, Schmidt estimated he’d be looking at a roughly $259 million tax bill on the wages after they were taxed at the top marginal rate of 37%.

    Federal income tax brackets run from 10% to 37%.

    Meanwhile, the IRS taxes qualified dividends and capital gains at 0%, 15% and 20%, depending on income and household status. The net investment income tax adds another 3.8% for individuals making at least $200,000 or married couples worth $250,000.

    For federal and state taxes on the Meta dividends, Zuckerberg would face a combined rate of 37.1%, Belnap noted. “His tax rate on this is actually fairly high,” he said.

    The gap in tax rates on income derived from wages and investments “has been a big criticism with U.S. tax policy,” Schmidt said, especially as lawmakers look for ways to come up with more tax revenue.

    Regular retail investors enjoy the same preferential rates on capital gains and dividends as the top 1% of taxpayers, Schmidt added. The issue is that those dividends and stock profits are a smaller part of their income while salaries, taxed at higher rates, are a bigger proportion.

    Belnap noted that California’s state tax rules don’t provide special treatment to dividends.

    Read also: Where Trump, Biden and Haley stand on capital gains, the child tax credit and other key tax questions

    Zuckerberg received a $1 base salary in 2022, a figure that hasn’t changed in several years. He is now worth $142 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, making him the fifth-richest person in the world.

    Meta did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Taxes on the Meta dividends will not be something Zuckerberg, or any Meta shareholders big or small, need to deal with until next year’s tax season, Belnap and Schmidt observed.

    But as taxpayers amass their 1099-DIV forms on dividend income, IRS figures show that it’s mostly upper-echelon taxpayers reaping the rewards on the preferential rates for qualified dividends.

    Households worth at least $1 million accounted for 40% of the approximate $285.3 billion in qualified dividends reported through mid-November, according to agency figures.

    For less affluent investors, “it’s usually a nice supplement, but I’d say very few people are living off dividends,” Belnap said.

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  • Tech’s longtime highfliers are growing up by getting smaller

    Tech’s longtime highfliers are growing up by getting smaller

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    Visitors take photos in front of the Meta sign at its headquarters in Menlo Park, California, December 29, 2022.

    Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

    Technology companies are learning an old lesson from Wall Street: maturing means shrinking.

    Meta and Amazon saw their shares spike on Friday following their fourth-quarter earnings reports. While revenue for both topped estimates, the story for investors is that they’re showing their ability to do more with less, an alluring equation for shareholders.

    There’s also a recognition that investors value cash, in many cases, above all else. The tech industry has long preferred to reinvest excess cash back into growth, ramping up hiring and experimenting with the next big thing. But following a year of hefty layoffs and capital preservation, Meta on Thursday announced that, for the first time, it will pay a quarterly dividend of 50 cents per share, while also authorizing an additional $50 billion stock repurchase plan.

    “The key with these companies is really that they’re able to reinvent themselves,” said Daniel Flax, an analyst at Neuberger Berman, in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday. They “continue to invest for the future and play offense while at the same time manage expenses in this tough environment,” he said.

    Amazon is less aggressively moving to send cash to shareholders, but the topic is certainly being discussed. The company instituted a $10 billion buyback program in 2022 and hasn’t announced anything since. On Thursday’s earnings call, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak asked about plans for additional capital returns.

    “Just really excited to actually have that question,” finance chief Brian Olsavsky said in response. “No one has asked me that in three years.”

    Olsavsky added that “we do debate and discuss capital structure policies annually or more often,” but said the company doesn’t have anything to announce. “We’re glad to have the better liquidity at the end of 2023 and we’re going to try to continue to build that,” he said.

    After years of seemingly unfettered growth, the biggest internet companies in the world are firmly into a new era. They’re still out hunting for the best technical talent, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, but headcount growth is measured. Staffing up in certain parts of the business likely means scaling back elsewhere.

    ‘Playing to win’

    For example, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg told investors that when it comes to AI, “We’re playing to win here and I expect us to continue investing aggressively in this area in order to build the most advanced clusters.”

    Later on the call, when asked about expanding headcount, Zuckerberg said new hiring will be “relatively minimal compared to what we would have done historically,” adding that, “I kind of want to keep things lean.” 

    Olsavsky said most teams at Amazon are “looking to hold the line on headcount, perhaps go down as we can drive efficiencies in the size of our business.”

    The story is playing out across Silicon Valley. January was the busiest month for tech job cuts since March, according to the website Layoffs.fyi, with almost 31,000 layoffs at 118 companies. Amazon and Alphabet added to their 2023 job cuts with more layoffs last month, as did Microsoft, which eliminated 1,900 roles in its gaming unit shortly after closing the acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

    SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 23: XBOX CEO Phil Spencer arrives at federal court on June 23, 2023 in San Francisco, California. Top executives from Microsoft and Activision/Blizzard will be testifying during a five day hearing against the FTC to determine the fate of a $68.7B merger of the two companies. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Downsizing this week hit the cloud software market, where Okta announced it was cutting about 400 jobs, or 7% of its staff, and Zoom confirmed it was eliminating less than 2% of its workforce, amounting to close to 150 positions. Zuora announced a plan to cut 8% of jobs, or almost 125 positions based on the most recent headcount figures.

    Evan Sohn, chairman of Recruiter.com, called it a “very confusing job market.” Last year, tech companies were responding to dramatically changing market conditions — soaring inflation, rising interest rates, rotation out of risk — after an extended bull market. Meta slashed over 20,000 jobs in 2023, Amazon laid off more than 27,000 people, And Alphabet cut over 12,000 positions.

    The economy is in a very different place today. Growth is back at a healthy clip, inflation appears under control and the Federal Reserve is indicating rate cuts are on the horizon this year. Unemployment held at 3.7% in January, down from 6.4% three years earlier, when the economy was just opening up from pandemic lockdowns. And nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. 

    Tech stocks are booming, with Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft all at or near record levels.

    But the downsizing in the industry continues.

    “Companies are still in the cleanup from ’23,” Sohn told CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange” this week. “There could be a flipping of skills, different skills necessary to really handle the new world of 2024.”

    Recent layoffs are fueled by changing skills and push for AI, says Recruiter.com's Evan Sohn

    Wall Street is rewarding tech companies for improved discipline and cash distribution, but it raises the question about where they can turn for significant growth. Other than Nvidia, which had a banner 2023 due to soaring demand for its AI chips, none of the other mega-cap tech companies have been growing at their historic averages.

    Even Meta’s better-than-expected 25% growth for the fourth quarter is a bit misleading, because the comparable number a year ago was depressed due to a slowing digital advertising market and Apple’s iOS update, which made it harder to target ads. Finance chief Susan Li reminded analysts on Thursday that as 2024 progresses, the company will be “lapping periods of increasingly strong demand.”

    By late this year, analysts are projecting growth at Meta will be back down to the low teens at best. Growth estimates for Amazon and Alphabet are even lower, a good indication that calls for capital allocation measures may only get louder.

    Ben Barringer, technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot, told CNBC that Meta’s decision to pay a dividend was a “symbolic moment” in that regard.

    “Mark Zuckerberg is showing that he wants to bring shareholders along with him and is highlighting that Meta is now a mature, grown-up business,” Barringer said.

    — CNBC’s Annie Palmer contributed to this report

    WATCH: Meta’s Q4 report suggests it’s putting Nvidia’s chips to great use

    Here's why Rosenblatt raised its price target on Meta

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  • Meta’s stock is the most overbought in 11 years, but that could be a good thing

    Meta’s stock is the most overbought in 11 years, but that could be a good thing

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    There’s a common belief that “overbought” is a technical condition for a stock, but in practice it seems to be more of an ability.

    Meta Platforms Inc.’s stock
    META,
    +20.32%

    soared so much Friday after a blowout earnings report, that some technical readings have reached levels not seen in 11 years.

    The stock rocketed 20.9% to close at a record $474.99, to book the third-biggest gain since going public in May 2012. The only bigger rallies were 23.3% on Feb. 2, 2023 and 29.6% on July 25, 2013, which were also after earnings reports.

    The stock’s Relative Strength Index, which is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitudes of recent gains and losses, climbed to 86.48. That’s the highest level seen since it closed at a record 89.39 on July 30, 2013.

    But that shouldn’t scare off Meta bulls.

    Many chart watchers believe RSI readings above 70 are signs of “overbought” conditions, which suggests bulls need a breather after running faster and farther than they are used to.

    There are also many who believe the ability to become overbought is a sign of underlying strength, since a stock tends to be trending higher when RSI hurdles 70. (Read Constance Brown’s “Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional.”)

    For example, the record RSI reading came three days after the record stock-price rally of 29.6% on July 25, 2013. Even though RSI closed at what was then a record of 88.27 after a record price gain on the 25th, the stock continued to rally and become even more overbought.

    It was that spike that snapped the stock out of the year-long doldrum that followed the initial public offering, and flipped the long-term narrative on the stock to bullish. (Read “Facebook’s ‘breakaway gap’ is a bullish game changer,” from The Wall Street Journal.)


    FactSet, MarketWatch

    And while the record RSI readings in July 2013 did lead to a minor short-term pullback, it didn’t stop the stock from embarking on a long-term uptrend, in which RSI made multiple forays above 70.


    FactSet, MarketWatch

    And the last time RSI closed above 85 was Feb. 2, 2023, when it closed at 86.07, also after a blowout earnings report.

    And similar to 10 years earlier, that historically high overbought reading helped launch another long-term rally.


    FactSet, MarketWatch

    So yes, Meta’s stock is now facing historically high overbought conditions. But as many chart watchers like to say, overbought doesn’t mean over.

    One thing to consider, however, is that the two prior times RSI spiked above 85 were while the long-term fates of the stock were still in question — the stocks were working on short-term bounces following long-term downtrends.


    FactSet, MarketWatch

    But Friday’s blast off happened just days after the stock closed at a record high. There was no resistance to hurdle, so rather than a bullish “breakaway gap,” Friday’s jump could be considered more a bullish leap of faith.

    Also read:

    Meta’s killer stock rally could add $200 billion in market cap — a historic haul.

    Nvidia’s stock could rise above $600 — despite signs it’s already overbought.

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