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Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is now applying his long-standing Bitcoin framework to Solana — and he’s calling the setup “explosive.”
In an October 29 memo, Hougan says the best trades in crypto are the ones where you get “two ways to win” with one position. For Bitcoin, he defines those two bets as: “1) The global ‘store of value’ market will grow. 2) Bitcoin will take an increasing share of that market.” He says only one of those outcomes has to be true for Bitcoin to work.
Hougan sizes that “store of value” market at roughly $27.5 trillion today, including about $25 trillion in gold and $2.5 trillion in Bitcoin. He argues investors focus too much on Bitcoin replacing gold and not enough on the overall market itself expanding.
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He notes that this market has already grown by roughly 10x in the last 20 years, from under $3 trillion in 2005 to $27.5 trillion today. In his view, if that repeats, Bitcoin can 10x without needing to fully displace gold. If, on top of that, Bitcoin also closes the gap with gold and ends up with half of the total store-of-value market, “every bitcoin would be worth $6.5 million.” He adds, “I’m not saying that will happen,” but he uses the math to show how powerful the dual-bet structure can be.
Solana’s Dual Growth Could Mirror Bitcoin
Hougan now argues Solana fits the same model. “When I invest in Solana, I am also making two bets at once,” he writes. Those two bets are: “1) The stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure market will grow. 2) Solana will win an increasing share of that market.”
He defines that market as the set of blockchains that power stablecoin payments and asset tokenization today. He names Ethereum as “the market leader,” and lists Tron, Solana, and Binance Smart Chain as major challengers in stablecoins. Together, he says, those networks represent $768 billion in market value. Solana’s share of that is $107 billion, or roughly 14%.
For Hougan, that is the opening. He says he has “a lot of confidence that the stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure market will grow,” and argues most people “significantly underestimate how much these technologies will remake markets.”
His long-run claim is blunt: “Over time, I suspect nearly all payments will be in stablecoins and nearly all assets will be tokenized.” If that plays out, “the blockchains that facilitate this growth will be extremely valuable.” He calls it “easy to imagine this market growing by 10x or more.”
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The second part, in his view, is Solana’s ability to capture more of that expansion. He calls Solana “fast” and “user-friendly,” backed by a community with a “ship-fast attitude.” He also notes that Solana is still “playing catch-up” in winning institutional mandates, but says that is starting to change. As an example, he cites Western Union’s announced stablecoin effort this week, and points out that Western Union chose Solana as the underlying blockchain.
Hougan’s argument is that if the overall market for stablecoin settlement and tokenized assets 10xes, and Solana grows its share of that market from 14%, the result is not linear — it compounds. “If I’m right,” he writes, “the combination of a growing market and a growing share of that market will be explosive for Solana. Just as with bitcoin.”
He closes with a note on positioning. Crypto, he says, rewards humility because “even the most seasoned experts don’t know exactly how things will play out.” But he says you can still tilt odds in your favor by owning assets that embed two high-conviction bets at once. In his view, Bitcoin already fits that profile. Solana now does too.
At press time, SOL traded at $186.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Jake Simmons
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