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  • Tech-stock picks that are small and focused: This fund invests in unsung innovators. Here are 2 top choices.

    Tech-stock picks that are small and focused: This fund invests in unsung innovators. Here are 2 top choices.

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    When investors think of technology stocks, they might automatically gravitate toward “the next big thing,” or to the giant companies that dominate the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.40%
    .
    But Robert Stimson, chief investment officer of Oak Associates Funds, makes a case for diversification through exposure to smaller innovators which he believes are “overlooked in this environment.”

    The River Oak Discovery Fund
    RIVSX,
    +0.98%

    invests in tech-oriented companies with market capitalizations of $5 billion or less, with an average of about $2 billion. It has a five-star rating, the highest, from Morningstar, despite having what the investment information firm considers “above average” annual expenses of 1.19% of assets under management. The fund is ranked in the 6th percentile among 546 funds in Morningstar’s “Small Blend” category for five-year performance and in the 13th percentile among 374 funds for 10-year performance. The performance comparisons are net of expenses.

    The Black Oak Emerging Technologies Fund
    BOGSX,
    +1.54%

    has more of a midcap focus, with some small-cap stocks and follows a similar strategy to that of RIVSX. But with no restriction on the size of companies this fund invests in, “we don’t have to sell stocks,” Stimpson said. So long-term holdings of this fund include Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -0.05%

    and Salesforce.com Inc.
    CRM,
    +0.69%
    .
    This fund is rated three stars within Morningstar’s “Technology” category and has a lower expense ratio of 1.03%.

    Both funds are concentrated. The River Oak Discovery Fund held 34 stocks and the Black Oak Emerging Technologies Fund held 35 stocks as of March 31. Lists of both funds’ largest holdings are below.

    During an Interview, Stimpson, who co-manages both funds, said that when investing in the small-cap technology space, he and colleagues identify companies that are “focused on niches.

    “I want a company that knows who they are, what they do and do it well, rather than a small company trying to growing into the next Microsoft, Google or Salesforce,” he said.

    More about giant companies dominating stock indexes: This twist on a traditional S&P 500 stock fund can lower your risk and still beat the market overall

    Stimpson said Oak Associates pays close attention to what corporate management teams say during earnings calls and in presentations, preferring comments related to improving sales and operations with a market niche, rather than expressions of grand visions for exponential growth.

    That type of narrow focus can support higher valuations over time, Stimpson said. “They have better execution, a better ability to fend-off competition and they are quality acquisition candidates.”

    “I caution everyone that until there is revenue, earnings and a product, the hype can be more dangerous than an opportunity.”


    — Robert Stimpson, chief investment officer at Oak Funds, when discussing AI and ChatGPT.

    All of those factors can be important to investors, considering how easily tech giants such as Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.00%

    or Google holding company Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +2.89%

    GOOG,
    +2.88%

    can begin to compete with smaller innovative companies because they can afford to make such large investments, he said.

    Simpson went further, saying that when running screens for “quality” metrics, such as improving free cash flow yields, the Oak Associates team also looks for “shareholder friendly practices.” For example, a company may be repurchasing shares. But are the buybacks lowering the share count significantly (which boosts earnings per share) or are they merely mitigating the dilution caused by the shoveling of new shares to executives as part of their compensation?

    Finally, Simpson cautioned investors not to get caught up in tech-focused hype.

    “When I talk to our clients, I get questions about AI and ChatGPT and how to play it. People get focused on a new great tech innovation,” he said. “You can replace ChatGPT with bitcoin, metaverse or 3-D printing.”

    “I caution everyone that until there is revenue, earnings and a product, the hype can be more dangerous than an opportunity.”

    Two examples

    These companies are held by theRiver Oak Discovery Fund and the Black Oak Emerging Technologies Fund.

    Cirrus Logic Inc.
    CRUS,
    -2.37%

    is the largest holding of the River Oak Discovery Fund. Stimpson calls the company “a derivative play on the success of Apple.”

    “They are focused on the chips that go into mobile and [vehicles],” as well as the needs of their customers, including Apple, “rather than problem areas of the chip sector, such as memory or PCs. They are not talking about chips for AI, for example,” Stimpson said.

    Cirrus focuses on systems and related software used in audio systems..

    Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc.
    KLIC,
    +1.92%

    makes equipment, tools and related software used by a variety of manufacturers of computer chips and integrated electronic devices.

    Stimpson likes the company as a long-term play on the worldwide disruption in semiconductor manufacturing and supply, in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. “All chip companies learned that any supply disruption in Southeast Asia is a problem. Over time, the opportunities for semiconductor equipment makers are very good. There will be more plants in more locations, so more equipment,” he said.

    He said KLICK was in a “protected” position, with returns on equity of about 20% and free cash flow yields of about 10%.

    Top holdings of the funds

    Here are the largest 10 holdings of the River Oak Discovery Fund as of March 31:

    Company

    Ticker

    % of portfolio

    Cirrus Logic Inc.

    CRUS,
    -2.37%
    4.9%

    Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc.

    KLIC,
    +1.92%
    4.6%

    Advanced Energy Industries Inc.

    AEIS,
    +0.30%
    4.5%

    Cohu Inc.

    COHU,
    +1.45%
    3.7%

    Asbury Automotive Group Inc.

    ABG,
    -1.75%
    3.7%

    Korn Ferry

    KFY,
    -0.96%
    3.6%

    Kforce Inc.

    KFRC,
    -2.40%
    3.4%

    Ambarella Inc.

    AMBA,
    -0.50%
    3.3%

    Applied Industrial Technologies Inc.

    AIT,
    -1.71%
    3.3%

    Perficient Inc.

    PRFT,
    +0.72%
    3.2%

    Click on the tickers for more about each company.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Here are the largest 10 holdings of the Black Oak Emerging Technology Fund as of March 31:

    Company

    Ticker

    % of portfolio

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    -0.05%
    5.7%

    KLA Corp.

    KLAC,
    +1.69%
    4.6%

    Advanced Energy Industries Inc.

    AEIS,
    +0.30%
    4.5%

    Cohu Inc.

    COHU,
    +1.45%
    4.1%

    SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

    SEDG,
    -3.76%
    3.9%

    Cirrus Logic Inc.

    CRUS,
    -2.37%
    3.9%

    Cohu Inc.

    COHU,
    +1.45%
    3.9%

    Ambarella Inc.

    AMBA,
    -0.50%
    3.4%

    Applied Industrial Technologies Inc.

    AIT,
    -1.71%
    3.4%

    Salesforce Inc.

    CRM,
    +0.69%
    3.3%

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  • Elon Musk says he’s hired new CEO for Twitter; is it NBCUniversal’s Linda Yaccarino?

    Elon Musk says he’s hired new CEO for Twitter; is it NBCUniversal’s Linda Yaccarino?

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    Twitter Chief Executive Elon Musk says he’s found a new CEO to run Twitter and its parent company, X Corp., and “she” starts soon.

    “Excited to announce that I’ve hired a new CEO for X/Twitter. She will be starting in ~6 weeks!” Musk tweeted Thursday afternoon. “My role will transition to being exec chair & [chief technology officer], overseeing product, software & sysops.”

    Musk did not offer any clues as to the identity of Twitter’s incoming CEO, but late Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported Linda Yaccarino, NBCUniversal’s head of advertising, was in talks to become the CEO.

    Yaccarino has worked at Comcast’s
    CMCSA,
    +1.28%

    NBCU for more than a decade, and has been an industry advocate in finding better ways to measure advertising’s effectiveness, according to the Journal.

    Yaccarino oversees global, national and local ad sales, partnerships, marketing, ad tech, data, measurement and strategic initiatives, according to her bio, which says she and her team have generated more than $100 billion in ad sales.

    “She knows metrics in advertising, and has played in different media,” Timothy Hubbard, assistant professor of management at the University of Notre Dame’s Mendoza College of Business, said in an interview. “I don’t know much about her, but she can balance Musk somewhat with her flexibility in advertising.”

    She and Musk appeared in a keynote conversation at a conference in Miami last month, according to Dateline, before NBCU and Twitter inked a major ad pact for the 2024 Olympics.

    Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the move is good for the stock of Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +2.10%
    ,
    where Musk is also CEO.

    “Musk stepping down as Twitter CEO sooner than thought is clearly good news overall for Tesla investors,” Ives said on Twitter. “Less time focused on Twitter platform and more time around Tesla SpaceX…balancing act too difficult and needed to make this move sooner rather than later.”

    In a note, Ives added: “With the tweet this afternoon, Musk’s reign as CEO of Twitter has finally come to an end and thus will be a positive for Tesla’s stock starting to finally remove this lingering albatross from the story,” and maintained Tesla’s outperform rating.

    Tesla shares advanced 1.6% in after-hours trading.

    After Musk acquired the social media giant for $44 billion, he posted a Twitter poll in December that asked if he should step down as CEO. A majority (57%) said yes, and he responded saying: “I will resign as CEO as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job! After that, I will just run the software & servers teams.”

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  • Elon Musk says he’s hired new CEO for Twitter; is it NBCUniversal’s Linda Yaccarino?

    Elon Musk says he’s hired new CEO for Twitter; is it NBCUniversal’s Linda Yaccarino?

    [ad_1]

    Twitter Chief Executive Elon Musk says he’s found a new CEO to run Twitter and its parent company, X Corp., and “she” starts soon.

    “Excited to announce that I’ve hired a new CEO for X/Twitter. She will be starting in ~6 weeks!” Musk tweeted Thursday afternoon. “My role will transition to being exec chair & [chief technology officer], overseeing product, software & sysops.”

    Musk did not offer any clues as to the identity of Twitter’s incoming CEO, but late Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported Linda Yaccarino, NBCUniversal’s head of advertising, was in talks to become the CEO.

    Yaccarino has worked at Comcast’s
    CMCSA,
    +1.28%

    NBCU for more than a decade, and has been an industry advocate in finding better ways to measure advertising’s effectiveness, according to the Journal.

    “She knows metrics in advertising, and has played in different media,” Timothy Hubbard, assistant professor of management at the University of Notre Dame’s Mendoza College of Business, said in an interview. “I don’t know much about her, but she can balance Musk somewhat with her flexibility in advertising.”

    Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the move is good for the stock of Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +2.10%
    ,
    where Musk is also CEO.

    “Musk stepping down as Twitter CEO sooner than thought is clearly good news overall for Tesla investors,” Ives said on Twitter. “Less time focused on Twitter platform and more time around Tesla SpaceX…balancing act too difficult and needed to make this move sooner rather than later.”

    In a note, Ives added: “With the tweet this afternoon, Musk’s reign as CEO of Twitter has finally come to an end and thus will be a positive for Tesla’s stock starting to finally remove this lingering albatross from the story,” and maintained Tesla’s outperform rating.

    In December, Musk posted a Twitter poll asking if he should step down as CEO. A majority said yes, and he responded saying: “I will resign as CEO as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job! After that, I will just run the software & servers teams.”

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  • Jobs report shows strong 253,000 increase in April. U.S. labor market not cooling much

    Jobs report shows strong 253,000 increase in April. U.S. labor market not cooling much

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    The numbers: The U.S. created a stronger-than-expected 253,000 new jobs in April and wages rose sharply, indicating there’s still lot of demand for labor even as the economy slows.

    The increase surpassed the 180,000 forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

    The unemployment rate, what’s more, fell a tick to 3.4% from 3.5%,…

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  • Jobs report shows strong 253,000 increase in April. U.S. labor market not cooling much

    Jobs report shows strong 253,000 increase in April. U.S. labor market not cooling much

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: The U.S. created a stronger-than-expected 253,000 new jobs in April and wages rose sharply, indicating there’s still lot of demand for labor even as the economy slows.

    The increase surpassed the 180,000 forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

    The unemployment rate, what’s more, fell a tick to 3.4% from 3.5%,…

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  • Lyft stock sinks as forecast falls short of estimates, while new CEO takes aim at Uber

    Lyft stock sinks as forecast falls short of estimates, while new CEO takes aim at Uber

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    Lyft Inc. on Thursday reported first-quarter results that beat expectations, but a forecast that fell just shy of analysts’ estimates weighed on the company’s stock.

    Lyft shares LYFT fell 15% after hours. They had dropped 1.8% in the regular session to close at $10.69 after a six-day positive streak. 

    Lyft forecast second-quarter revenue of…

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  • Roku stock gains after earnings beat, though ad market remains challenging

    Roku stock gains after earnings beat, though ad market remains challenging

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    Roku Inc. shares moved 2% higher in Wednesday’s after-hours action as the streaming-media company cited continued ad-market pressures but topped expectations for its latest quarter.

    The company reported a first-quarter net loss of $193.6 million, or $1.38 a share, compared with a loss of $26.3 million, or 19 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet were expecting a $1.47 loss per share.

    Roku…

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  • Tesla’s Price War Could Hit Its Profits

    Tesla’s Price War Could Hit Its Profits

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    Electric vehicle leader


    Tesla


    is expected to report lower earnings on higher sales Wednesday evening after the electric vehicle maker slashed prices to draw in buyers.

    The EV war, with traditional auto makers spending billions to catch


    Tesla


    (ticker: TSLA), has morphed into a price war. The car maker’s quarterly earnings will help investors figure out who is winning.

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  • Netflix stock falls after subscriber growth, earnings forecast miss. But it’s bouncing back on ad plans, shared-password crackdown in U.S.

    Netflix stock falls after subscriber growth, earnings forecast miss. But it’s bouncing back on ad plans, shared-password crackdown in U.S.

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    Netflix Inc.’s stock initially plunged in after-hours trading Tuesday, after the streaming giant posted weaker subscriber growth and forecast a smaller profit than Wall Street expected. But shares later recovered and crossed into positive territory on company disclosures that its new ad-supported service is a success and its crackdown on shared accounts in the U.S. is coming this quarter.

    Netflix
    NFLX,
    +0.29%

    reported that subscribers increased by 1.75 million in the first quarter of the year, missing analysts’ average estimate of 2.2 million. Netflix reported fiscal first-quarter net earnings of $1.31 billion, or $2.88 a share, compared with $3.53 a share in the year-ago quarter.

    Revenue improved to $8.16 billion from $7.87 billion a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected on average net earnings of $2.86 a share on revenue of $8.18 billion.

    For the second quarter, Netflix executives guided for earnings of $2.84 a share on $8.24 billion in revenue, while analysts on average were expecting earnings of $3.07 a share on sales of $8.18 billion. Netflix no longer provides guidance on subscriber additions, a sign its years of rapid growth are clearly cooling.

    Shares plunged lower than $300 in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 0.3% increase at $333.70. But shares had crossed into positive territory and were recently above $335 in the extended session.

    Netflix executives have hoped to goose their financial results with cheaper, ad-supported options and a crackdown on password sharing. In a letter to shareholders Tuesday, company executives said the ads plan in the U.S. “already has a total ARM (subscription + ads) greater than our standard plan.”

    At the same time, they disclosed a password crackdown in the U.S. will occur in the second quarter, a bit later from previous expectations.

    “We shifted out the timing of the broad launch from late Q1 to Q2,” Netflix executives wrote. “While this means that some of the expected membership growth and revenue benefit will fall in Q3 rather than Q2, we believe this will result in a
    better outcome for both our members and our business.”

    Additionally, Netflix also announced that it will end the DVD-by-mail business that launched the company into consumers’ homes. Revenue from the DVD business had declined from $911 million in 2013 to $146 million in 2022.

    “This a catch-22 environment for streaming companies as they are pivoting from chasing subscribers to chasing profits while at the same time inflation-weary consumers are reassessing their discretionary spending habits,” KPMG U.S. National Media Leader Scott Purdy said, in assessing the results. “Today’s figures, a bellwether for the industry at large, signal that winter is coming for the consumer. All of the subsidies are ending. Consumers can expect to be hit with ads, higher prices, and password sharing crackdown.”

    Expectations among investors heading into Netflix’s quarterly report were muted. The focus was on Netflix’s switch toward better monetization with an ad-supported service and a rolling crackdown on shared accounts. Analysts in particular were closely watching the performance of Netflix’s new “Basic with Ads” plan ($6.99 a month) and its effectiveness in stanching the defection of subscribers to competing services from Walt Disney Co.
    DIS,
    +0.63%

    and Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.75%
    .

    Netflix’s rollout of the ad-supported tier could also have a temporary impact on margins: Netflix reported an operating margin of 21%, compared with about 25% in the year-ago quarter.

    At the same time, Netflix put an end to paid shared accounts in some Latin American countries last year, and expanded plans to do so Canada, New Zealand, Portugal and Spain in February.

    “In our view, the password-sharing crackdown will result in a greater number of subs as well as revenue because the primary account holder will either pay an additional fee for members who have moved out of the household or those sharing accounts become full subscribers,” Bank of America analysts said in a recent note.

    Shares of Netflix have climbed 12% so far this year, while the broader S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.09%

    has advanced 8%.

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  • Are U.S. markets open on Good Friday?

    Are U.S. markets open on Good Friday?

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    The U.S. stock market is closed Friday, April 7, for the Good Friday holiday, but the bond market will be briefly open.

    Friday morning has seen the release of the monthly jobs report for March, a key piece of economic data that households, investors and industry leaders will be following for clues to how much further progress the Federal Reserve has been making in its inflation fight.

    The…

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  • Jobs report shows 236,000 gain in March — lifting 2023 total above 1 million — but U.S. labor market shows hints of cooling

    Jobs report shows 236,000 gain in March — lifting 2023 total above 1 million — but U.S. labor market shows hints of cooling

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    The numbers: The U.S. added a robust 236,000 new jobs in March, defying the Federal Reserve’s hopes for a big slowdown in hiring as the central bank struggles to tame inflation. The consensus economist forecast called for a nonfarm-payrolls expansion of 238,000.

    The solid increase in employment last month followed a revised 326,000 gain in February and a gain of 472,000 in January.

    While the increase in hiring was the smallest monthly rise in more than two years, the number of jobs created last month was much greater than is typical.

    The U.S. economy has shown recent signs of stress.

    The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.5% from 3.6% as more people searched for and found work. That’s another sign of labor-market vigor.

    There was some good news in the report for the Fed, though.

    Wage growth continued to moderate closer to level the Fed would prefer. Hourly wages increased a mild 0.3% last month, the government said Friday.

    The increase in pay over the past year also slowed again to a nearly two-year low of 4.2% from 4.6% in February.

    What’s more, the share of people working or looking for work rose a tick to 62.6%. That’s the highest labor-force participation rate since February 2020, the last month before the pandemic’s onset.

    When more people look for work, companies don’t have to compete as hard for workers via higher pay.

    Emerging evidence of slack in a muscular U.S. labor market could encourage the Fed to take a breather after a rapid series of interest-rate increases.

    Still, the U.S. has added a whopping 1 million–plus new jobs in the first three months of the year. The labor market is not cooling off as much as the Fed would like.

    The Black unemployment rate fell to 5% last month, the lowest level since records began being kept in the early 1970s.

    Stock-index futures rallied after the report, though the stock market itself is officially closed due to the Good Friday holiday.

    See: Why Good Friday complicates how stock-market traders will digest March jobs report

    Key details: About one-third of the new jobs created last month — 72,000 — were at service-sector companies such as bars and restaurants whose employment still has not returned to prepandemic levels.

    Americans are going out to eat a lot and spending relatively more on services than on goods.

    Government employment increased by 47,000. Hiring also rose at professional businesses and in healthcare. Retailers cut 15,000 jobs.

    Employment fell slightly in manufacturing and construction, or goods-producing industries, which are under more pressure from rising interest rates.

    The strong labor market has benefited all groups, but especially Black Americans. The Black unemployment rate fell to 5% last month, the lowest level since records began being kept in the early 1970s.

    Big picture: The ongoing tightness in the labor market could inflame inflation and even push the Fed to raise interest rates more than currently forecast to try to get prices under control.

    Higher borrowing costs reduce inflation by slowing the economy, but most Fed rate-hike cycles since World War II have been followed by recession.

    On the flip side, the U.S. economy is starting to show more signs of deterioration due to the series of rapid Fed interest-rate increases since last year.

    Manufacturers have cut production and are arguably already in recession and the much larger service side of the economy is under more stress lately.

    If these trends continue the economy — and inflation — are bound to slow.

    The U.S. is still growing for now, however, and the labor market remains an oasis of strength.

    Low unemployment and rising wages have allowed Americans to keep spending. And so far they’ve keep the economy out of a widely predicted recession.

    Looking ahead: “The U.S. labor market is losing some momentum, but remains far too vibrant for the Fed to pause [its rate-hike campaign] in May,” said senior economist Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets

    “Although job growth is gradually slowing, it remains too strong for the Federal Reserve,” said Sal Guatieri of PNC Financial Services.

    See: Traders see little chance interest rates will end up where Fed thinks in 2023

    Market reaction:  Futures contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    YM00,
    +0.19%

    rose 64 points, or 0.2%, to 33,723. S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.24%

    gained 9.75 points, or 0.2%, to 4,141.75. Stock trading resumes again on Monday.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.404%

    jumped to 3.36%.

    MarketWatch personal finance: U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in March. Is this your last chance to jump ship?

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  • Jobs report shows 236,000 gain in March — lifting 2023 total above 1 million — but U.S. labor market shows hints of cooling

    Jobs report shows 236,000 gain in March — lifting 2023 total above 1 million — but U.S. labor market shows hints of cooling

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: The U.S. added a robust 236,000 new jobs in March, defying the Federal Reserve’s hopes for a big slowdown in hiring as the central bank struggles to tame inflation. The consensus economist forecast called for a nonfarm-payrolls expansion of 238,000.

    The solid increase in employment last month followed a revised 326,000 gain in February and a gain of 472,000 in January.

    While the increase in hiring was the smallest monthly rise in more than two years, the number of jobs created last month was much greater than is typical.

    The U.S. economy has shown recent signs of stress.

    The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.5% from 3.6% as more people searched for and found work. That’s another sign of labor-market vigor.

    There was some good news in the report for the Fed, though.

    Wage growth continued to moderate closer to level the Fed would prefer. Hourly wages increased a mild 0.3% last month, the government said Friday.

    The increase in pay over the past year also slowed again to a nearly two-year low of 4.2% from 4.6% in February.

    What’s more, the share of people working or looking for work rose a tick to 62.6%. That’s the highest labor-force participation rate since February 2020, the last month before the pandemic’s onset.

    When more people look for work, companies don’t have to compete as hard for workers via higher pay.

    Emerging evidence of slack in a muscular U.S. labor market could encourage the Fed to take a breather after a rapid series of interest-rate increases.

    Still, the U.S. has added a whopping 1 million–plus new jobs in the first three months of the year. The labor market is not cooling off as much as the Fed would like.

    The Black unemployment rate fell to 5% last month, the lowest level since records began being kept in the early 1970s.

    Stock-index futures rallied after the report, though the stock market itself is officially closed due to the Good Friday holiday.

    See: Why Good Friday complicates how stock-market traders will digest March jobs report

    Key details: About one-third of the new jobs created last month — 72,000 — were at service-sector companies such as bars and restaurants whose employment still has not returned to prepandemic levels.

    Americans are going out to eat a lot and spending relatively more on services than on goods.

    Government employment increased by 47,000. Hiring also rose at professional businesses and in healthcare. Retailers cut 15,000 jobs.

    Employment fell slightly in manufacturing and construction, or goods-producing industries, which are under more pressure from rising interest rates.

    The strong labor market has benefited all groups, but especially Black Americans. The Black unemployment rate fell to 5% last month, the lowest level since records began being kept in the early 1970s.

    Big picture: The ongoing tightness in the labor market could inflame inflation and even push the Fed to raise interest rates more than currently forecast to try to get prices under control.

    Higher borrowing costs reduce inflation by slowing the economy, but most Fed rate-hike cycles since World War II have been followed by recession.

    On the flip side, the U.S. economy is starting to show more signs of deterioration due to the series of rapid Fed interest-rate increases since last year.

    Manufacturers have cut production and are arguably already in recession and the much larger service side of the economy is under more stress lately.

    If these trends continue the economy — and inflation — are bound to slow.

    The U.S. is still growing for now, however, and the labor market remains an oasis of strength.

    Low unemployment and rising wages have allowed Americans to keep spending. And so far they’ve keep the economy out of a widely predicted recession.

    Looking ahead: “The U.S. labor market is losing some momentum, but remains far too vibrant for the Fed to pause [its rate-hike campaign] in May,” said senior economist Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets

    “Although job growth is gradually slowing, it remains too strong for the Federal Reserve,” said Sal Guatieri of PNC Financial Services.

    See: Traders see little chance interest rates will end up where Fed thinks in 2023

    Market reaction:  Futures contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    YM00,
    +0.19%

    rose 64 points, or 0.2%, to 33,723. S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.24%

    gained 9.75 points, or 0.2%, to 4,141.75. Stock trading resumes again on Monday.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.404%

    jumped to 3.36%.

    MarketWatch personal finance: U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in March. Is this your last chance to jump ship?

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  • Jobs report shows 236,000 gain in March — lifting 2023 total above 1 million — but U.S. labor market shows hints of cooling

    Jobs report shows 236,000 gain in March — lifting 2023 total above 1 million — but U.S. labor market shows hints of cooling

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: The U.S. added a robust 236,000 new jobs in March, defying the Federal Reserve’s hopes for a big slowdown in hiring as the central bank struggles to tame inflation. The consensus economist forecast called for a nonfarm-payrolls expansion of 238,000.

    The solid increase in employment last month followed a revised 326,000 gain in February and a gain of 472,000 in January.

    While the increase in hiring was the smallest monthly rise in more than two years, the number of jobs created last month was much greater than is typical.

    The U.S. economy has shown recent signs of stress.

    The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.5% from 3.6% as more people searched for and found work. That’s another sign of labor-market vigor.

    There was some good news in the report for the Fed, though.

    Wage growth continued to moderate closer to level the Fed would prefer. Hourly wages increased a mild 0.3% last month, the government said Friday.

    The increase in pay over the past year also slowed again to a nearly two-year low of 4.2% from 4.6% in February.

    What’s more, the share of people working or looking for work rose a tick to 62.6%. That’s the highest labor-force participation rate since February 2020, the last month before the pandemic’s onset.

    When more people look for work, companies don’t have to compete as hard for workers via higher pay.

    Emerging evidence of slack in a muscular U.S. labor market could encourage the Fed to take a breather after a rapid series of interest-rate increases.

    Still, the U.S. has added a whopping 1 million–plus new jobs in the first three months of the year. The labor market is not cooling off as much as the Fed would like.

    The Black unemployment rate fell to 5% last month, the lowest level since records began being kept in the early 1970s.

    Stock-index futures rallied after the report, though the stock market itself is officially closed due to the Good Friday holiday.

    See: Why Good Friday complicates how stock-market traders will digest March jobs report

    Key details: About one-third of the new jobs created last month — 72,000 — were at service-sector companies such as bars and restaurants whose employment still has not returned to prepandemic levels.

    Americans are going out to eat a lot and spending relatively more on services than on goods.

    Government employment increased by 47,000. Hiring also rose at professional businesses and in healthcare. Retailers cut 15,000 jobs.

    Employment fell slightly in manufacturing and construction, or goods-producing industries, which are under more pressure from rising interest rates.

    The strong labor market has benefited all groups, but especially Black Americans. The Black unemployment rate fell to 5% last month, the lowest level since records began being kept in the early 1970s.

    Big picture: The ongoing tightness in the labor market could inflame inflation and even push the Fed to raise interest rates more than currently forecast to try to get prices under control.

    Higher borrowing costs reduce inflation by slowing the economy, but most Fed rate-hike cycles since World War II have been followed by recession.

    On the flip side, the U.S. economy is starting to show more signs of deterioration due to the series of rapid Fed interest-rate increases since last year.

    Manufacturers have cut production and are arguably already in recession and the much larger service side of the economy is under more stress lately.

    If these trends continue the economy — and inflation — are bound to slow.

    The U.S. is still growing for now, however, and the labor market remains an oasis of strength.

    Low unemployment and rising wages have allowed Americans to keep spending. And so far they’ve keep the economy out of a widely predicted recession.

    Looking ahead: “The U.S. labor market is losing some momentum, but remains far too vibrant for the Fed to pause [its rate-hike campaign] in May,” said senior economist Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets

    “Although job growth is gradually slowing, it remains too strong for the Federal Reserve,” said Sal Guatieri of PNC Financial Services.

    See: Traders see little chance interest rates will end up where Fed thinks in 2023

    Market reaction:  Futures contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    YM00,
    +0.19%

    rose 64 points, or 0.2%, to 33,723. S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.24%

    gained 9.75 points, or 0.2%, to 4,141.75. Stock trading resumes again on Monday.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.404%

    jumped to 3.36%.

    MarketWatch personal finance: U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in March. Is this your last chance to jump ship?

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  • U.S. trade deficit hits 4-month high in sign of stress on the economy

    U.S. trade deficit hits 4-month high in sign of stress on the economy

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    The trade deficit widened 2.7% in February to a four-month high of $70.5 billion and pointed to more stress on the U.S. economy.

    The trade gap rose from $68.7 billion in January and was slightly above Wall Street forecasts.

    Both imports and exports fell in February, reflecting weaker growth in the U.S. and abroad.

    Key details: Imports fell 1.5% to $321.7 billion in February to extend a recent string of declines, the government’s trade report showed.

    Part of the drop reflects lower oil prices, but Americans have also trimmed spending in response to rising interest rates and a slower economy

    In February, imports of cell phones, consumer goods, clothing and drugs retreated.

    A further decline in imports would be a potential warning sign of worse to come. They have declined 8% since peaking in March 2021.

    Exports slid a sharper 2.7% to $251.2 billion and also continued a recent downtrend. Just seven months ago they touched a record high.

    A weaker global economy could further sap demand for American goods and services.

    In February, exports of industrial supplies, autos and parts, consumer goods and passenger planes all declined.

    Big picture:  The U.S. is on track to break a string of three straight years of rising and record deficits, but not for reasons conducive to a healthy economy.

    Looking ahead: “The sharp declines in both exports and imports in February add to the signs that economic growth is faltering,” said deputy chief U.S. economist Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics.

    Market reaction:  The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.24%

    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.25%

    were set to open slightly lower in Wednesday trades.

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  • The surprise OPEC+ oil production cuts will increase gas prices — here’s how much

    The surprise OPEC+ oil production cuts will increase gas prices — here’s how much

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    Surprise crude oil production cuts from Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich countries shouldn’t produce worries of skyrocketing gas costs for U.S. drivers still smarting from last year’s pump price shocks, according to fuel industry experts.

    At a time when gas prices are already increasing because of rising seasonal demand, the slashed crude oil output that Saudi Arabia announced Sunday will translate into higher prices, they say. But compared to last year — when energy markets were absorbing the initial impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the altitude on those gas price increases may not feel so steep.

    On Monday, the national average for a gallon of gas was $3.50, according to AAA. That’s around 10 cents more than a month ago, but almost 70 cents less than the $4.19 average cost one year ago.

    The effects of decreased oil production could translate into initial price increases of up to 15 cents per gallon, according to two different energy sector watchers.

    There’s Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

    At OPIS, an outlet focused on energy sector news and analytics, Chief Oil Analyst Denton Cinquegrana said he was previously expecting summer gas prices to average around $3.60.

    “This move probably boosts that by about 10 – 15 cents to about $3.70-3.75/gal.” Cinquegrana told MarketWatch.

    OPIS is owned by Dow Jones, which also owns MarketWatch.

    It’s possible for gas price averages to hit around $3.60 in the next week or so, he said. The other 10 to 15 cents might filter into retail pump prices later this month or in early May, according to Cinquegrana.

    The surprise move came from Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia. In Saudi Arabia, officials were reportedly “irritated” by recent remarks from U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm.

    After the Biden administration tapped the country’s strategic petroleum reserve to combat last year’s high gas costs, Granholm said it will difficult to restock the reserve.

    By May, more than 1 million barrels of oil a day will be slashed from output in the global energy markets. That’s in addition to OPEC+ production cuts announced last fall.

    In cost breakdowns for a gallon of gas, the price of crude oil is responsible for more than half the price tag, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

    In Monday morning trading, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery jumped 6% to just over $80 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    For context, when gas prices were breaking records last year, the costs of West Texas Intermediate crude were in the triple digits. While retail prices surged in early March 2022, West Texas Intermediate crude briefly traded for more than $130 during the trading day on March 7, 2022.

    The national average for a gallon of gas hit a record $5.01 in mid-June, according to AAA. In the current context, Cinquegrana doesn’t see a return to $5 gas averages, he said. Gas prices vary across the nation. California drivers are paying $4.80 on average while Mississippi drivers are paying $3.02 per gallon. 

    Even if price increases are not as sharp as last year, hot inflation is retreating slowly. So any extra costs are unwelcome to millions of American drivers who are living their lives and more frequently commuting to the office.

    Like last year, oil prices are poised to increase, said AAA spokesman Devin Gladden.

    But the economy’s background noise right now could dampen the impact as downturn worries keep sticking around, he added. Furthermore, there can be discrepancies in the announced production reductions and the amounts that are actually reduced, Gladden said.

    “If recessionary concerns persist in the market, oil price increases may be limited due to the market believing lower oil demand will lead to lower prices this year,” he said.

    On Monday, energy sector stocks and related exchange traded funds were climbing after the production cut news. In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.81%

    was up more than 200 points, or 0.7%, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.03%

    is little changed and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -0.98%

    dropped 100 points, or 0.8%.

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  • Inflation softens in February, PCE finds, and takes some pressure off Fed

    Inflation softens in February, PCE finds, and takes some pressure off Fed

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    The numbers: The cost of U.S. goods and services rose by a milder 0.3% in February, perhaps a sign the Federal Reserve’s fight against high inflation is showing grudging progress.

    Prices had risen by a sharp 0.6% in January, based on the so-called PCE index.

    The yearly increase in prices declined to 5% from 5.3% in the prior month, the government said Friday, marking the lowest level in more than a year and a half.

    That’s still about three times the rate of inflation before the pandemic, however.

    Senior Federal Reserve officials have signaled they plan to raise interest rates just once more before pausing to determine how much a sharp increase in borrowing costs brings down inflation. The Fed has jacked up its key short-term U.S. rate to a top end of 5%, a remarkably fast acceleration from nearly zero one year ago.

    Higher interest rates temper inflation by slowing the economy, but the effects can sometimes take up to a year or more to be fully felt. The Fed wants to avoid going too far or cause any more stress on the U.S. financial system after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.

    After the PCE report, Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said the central bank “has more work to do” to get inflation lower in an interview with Bloomberg.

    Key details: The more closely followed core index also increased 0.3% last month, matching Wall Street’s forecast.

    The core rate of inflation in the past 12 months slipped to 4.6% from 4.7%.

    The PCE is viewed by the Fed as the best predictor of future inflation trends. It is formally known as the personal consumption expenditures price index.

    The central bank pays especially close attention to the core gauge that strips out volatile food and energy costs.

    Unlike it’s better-known cousin, the consumer price index, the PCE gauge takes into account how consumers change their buying habits due to rising prices.

    They might substitute cheaper goods such as chicken thighs for more expensive ones like boneless breasts to keep costs down. Or buy generic medicines instead of brand names.

    The CPI showed inflation rising at a 6% yearly rate in February.

    Big picture: The Fed is trying to straddle a fine line: Bring inflation back down to its 2% target, but without causing a severe economic reaction.

    Whether the Fed will be able to hold the line on just one more rate hike is far from certain.

    If inflation stays high, the central bank would have to end its pause on rate hikes and risk a recession. A slim majority of economists, in fact, already believe a downturn is imminent.

    Steadily falling inflation, on the other hand, could allow the Fed to pull a rabbit out of the proverbial hat.

    Looking ahead: “For an economy looking to avoid recession, this was a good report,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

    “For the Fed, it could be one and done in May,” said senior economist Sal Guatieri of BMO Capital Markets.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.50%

    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.57%

    rose in Friday trades. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.535%

    declined several basis points to 3.53%.

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  • Micron Sales Plunge 53%. It Is Cutting More Staff. Better Days Lie Ahead.

    Micron Sales Plunge 53%. It Is Cutting More Staff. Better Days Lie Ahead.

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    Micron


    Technology shares are modestly higher in late trading Tuesday after the memory chip company posted financial results for its fiscal second quarter ended March 2 that were about in line with expectations, as a weak market for PCs and smartphones continued to weigh on the company’s results. Micron also said that as part of its cost-reduction program, it will reduce staff by about 15%—up from a previous plan to cut heads by 10%.

    But there are some promising signs for the memory chip maker.

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  • U.S. economy speeds up in March, S&P finds, but so does inflation

    U.S. economy speeds up in March, S&P finds, but so does inflation

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    The numbers: The U.S. economy accelerated in March, S&P Global surveys showed, but so did inflation as companies raised selling prices.

    The S&P Global Flash U.S. services-sector index rose to an 11-month high of 53.8 from 50.5 in the prior month. Most Americans are employed on the service side of the economy.

    The S&P Global U.S. manufacturing sector index, meanwhile, increased to 49.3 from 47.3. That’s a five-month high.

    Any number above 50 points to expansion. Figures below that signal contraction.

    The S&P Global surveys are among the first indicators each month to assess the health of the economy.

    Key details: New orders, a sign of future sales, rose for the first time since last September at service-oriented companies.

    Booking at manufacturers fell again, but at the slowest pace in six months. More positively, production increased for the first time since last September.

    Employment rose across the economy as both service companies and manufacturers said they added new workers.

    On the downside, the increase in demand allowed companies to raise prices at the fastest pace in five months.

    Business leaders said rising costs, especially labor, contributed to their decision to raise prices.

    That’s not good news for Federal Reserve officials who worry that rising wages could make it harder to get high inflation under control.

    Big picture: The service and industrial sides of the economies are following different trajectories.

    Americans are spending relatively more money on services such as travel and eating out and spending less on goods. As a result, service companies are still hiring and growing at a faster clip.

    Manufacturers are basically treading water due to the shift in consumer spending patterns as well as the depressive effects of higher inflation and interest rates.

    Adding it all up, though, the S&P reports paint the picture of a expanding economy that is not on the doorstep of recession.

    What remains to be seen is how much the recent stress in the banking sector hurts lending and makes it harder for businesses to borrow and invest.

    Looking ahead: “March has so far witnessed an encouraging resurgence of economic growth,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global.

    “There is also some concern regarding inflation,” he said. “The inflationary upturn is now being led by stronger service sector price increases, linked largely to faster wage growth.”

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.17%

    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.13%

    fell in Friday trades.

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  • Ryan Reynolds Sells Mint Mobile for $1.35 Billion to T-Mobile

    Ryan Reynolds Sells Mint Mobile for $1.35 Billion to T-Mobile

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    Ryan Reynolds Sells Mint Mobile for $1.35 Billion to T-Mobile

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  • The 2023 stock market rally looks wobbly. What’s next as investors prepare for longer inflation fight.

    The 2023 stock market rally looks wobbly. What’s next as investors prepare for longer inflation fight.

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    The stock market is ending February on a decidedly wobbly note, raising doubts about the durability of an early 2023 rally.

    Blame stronger-than-expected economic data and hotter-than-expected inflation readings that have forced investors to again rethink their expectations around how high the Federal Reserve will drive interest rates.

    “The idea that equity markets would experience a strong upside surge while the Fed was still hiking and the market was underestimating what Fed was going to do” had looked “untenable,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, in a phone interview.

    Market participants have come round to the Fed’s way of thinking. At the end of January, fed-funds futures reflected expectations the Fed’s benchmark interest rate would peak below 5% despite the central bank’s own forecast for a peak in the 5% to 5.25% range. Moreover, the market was forecasting the Fed would deliver more than one cut by year-end.

    That view began to shift after the release of a January jobs report on Feb. 3 that showed the U.S. economy added a much larger-than-expected 517,000 jobs and showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.4% — its lowest since 1969. Throw in hotter-than-expected January consumer and producer price index readings and Friday’s bounce in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s favored inflation measure, and the market’s outlook on rates looks much different.

    Participants now see the Fed raising rates above 5% and holding them there through at least year end. The question now is whether the Fed will bump up its forecast of where it expects rates to peak at its next policy meeting in March.

    That’s translated in a backup in Treasury yields and a pullback by stocks, with the S&P 500 down around 5% from its 2023 high set on Feb. 2, leaving it up 3.4% in the year to date through Friday.

    It isn’t just that investors are learning to live with the Fed’s expectation for rates, it’s that investors are realizing that bringing down inflation will be a “bumpy” process, said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for the SPDR business at State Street Global Advisors, in a phone interview. After all, he noted, it took former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker two recessions in the early 1980s to finally crush a bout of runaway inflation.

    The run to the S&P 500’s Feb. 2 high was led by what some analysts derisively called a “dash for trash.” Last year’s biggest losers, including highly speculative shares of companies with no earnings, were among the leaders on the way back up. Those stocks suffered particularly last year as the Fed’s aggressive cadence of rate hikes sent Treasury yields up sharply. Higher bond yields make it harder to justify holding stocks whose valuations are based on earnings and cash flow projected far into the future.

    Inflation readings this month have all been hotter than expected, resulting in the “reversal of everything that was working” previously, Arone noted. The 10-year Treasury yield had fallen, the dollar was weakening, which means that highly speculative, volatile stocks are giving back leadership to companies that benefit from rising rates and inflation, he said.

    The energy sector was the sole winner among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors in the past week, while materials and consumer staples outperformed.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.02%

    dropped 3% last week, leaving the blue-chip gauge down 1% so far in 2023, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.05%

    slid 2.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -1.69%

    dropped 1.7%. The Nasdaq trimmed its year-to-date gain to 8.9%.

    Goodwin sees scope for stocks to fall another 10% to 15% as the economy slides toward recession. She said that while earnings results showed bottom line results continue to hold up relatively well for tech and consumer discretionary sectors, top line revenues are decelerating — a troubling mismatch. Outside of the pandemic winners, companies are struggling to maintain profit margins, she noted.

    Indeed, margin trouble could be the next big worry, Arone said.

    Net margins are below the five-year average because businesses have reached a limit when it comes to passing on price increases customers.

    “My view is this will remain a headwind for the outlook for stocks and one that’s a bit under the radar,” he said. That might explain why sectors that still enjoy high margins or are able to increase margins — such as the aforementioned energy and industrials — were outperforming the market at the end of the past week.

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