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  • Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting

    Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting

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    Data-center stocks buoyed an otherwise down chip sector Thursday as shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. cratered on torn-in-half profits and a hike in capital spending to fuel Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse ambitions, prompting one analyst to ask if server chips can only go up now.

    As shares of Meta dropped as much as 25% Thursday, shares of Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +2.31%

    surged as much as 7%, compared with less than 1% declines on the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    -1.51%

    and S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.69%
    .

    Late Wednesday, Meta reported that quarterly profits fell by more than 50% and added that it expects 2022 capital expenditure of $32 billion to $33 billion, compared with a previous range of $30 billion to $34 billion. In 2023, the company said, it expects capital expenditure in the range of $34 billion to $39 billion, “driven by our investments in data centers, servers, and network infrastructure.”

    Meta
    META,
    -24.64%

    noted that an “increase in AI capacity is driving substantially all of our capital expenditure growth in 2023.”

    Soon after Meta made that announcement, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis said in a note that “positive capex commentary from Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    -2.80%
    ,
    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    -2.03%

    and Meta” was all a positive for data-center equipment providers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.92%
    ,
    Broadcom Inc.
    AVGO,
    -1.26%

    and Marvell Technology Inc.
    MRVL,
    +3.61%
    .
    Lipacis has buy ratings on all four stocks.

    Shares of AMD rallied as much as 5%, Broadcom shares rose as much as 2% and Marvell shares surged as much as 10% Thursday. Intel Corp.
    INTC,
    -3.69%

    shares were up a little more than 1% at one point ahead of its earnings report, scheduled for after the close Thursday.

    Opinion: Facebook and Google grew into tech titans by ignoring Wall Street. Now it could lead to their downfall

    Jefferies noted that Meta’s capital expenditure for 2023 alone charts a 12% year-over-year hike at midpoint, compared with the Wall Street consensus of $29 billion, or a 5% year-over-year decline.

    “We sense investor caution around Nvidia’s datacenter business this quarter, but we expect all four [equipment providers] to discuss positive datacenter trends this earnings season,” Lipacis said, noting he was a buyer of Nvidia stock “in front of its earnings call.”

    From the perspective of the chip industry — which has gone from a two-year global chip shortage to a sudden glut in a matter of months as PC and consumer-electronics demand has dropped sharply, causing chip fabricators to pump the brakes on investments in new capacity — Lipacis questioned whether the glut will ever reach data-center sales, as many have feared.

    “The most common comment we hear from investors on Nvidia is ‘the Datacenter Shoe has to Drop,’” Lipacis said, noting that his data shows that the shoe has already dropped and an uptick is on the horizon.

    Lipacis explained that data-center sales from Nvidia, AMD and Intel combined declined to $10.5 billion in the second quarter from $12 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 and that he is modeling another $10.5 billion quarter in the third.

    “This looks consistent with the pattern since 2017 of 4-to-5 qtrs above trendline, followed by 2-to-3 qtrs of below trendline ‘digestion,’ i.e., it looks like the datacenter shoe has already dropped,” Lipacis said.

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  • Facebook earnings cut in half, Meta stock sinks toward lowest prices in more than 6 years

    Facebook earnings cut in half, Meta stock sinks toward lowest prices in more than 6 years

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    Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. on Wednesday became the latest tech titan tattooed by a precipitous drop in digital advertising, reporting less than half the profit it had in the same quarter a year ago and sending its stock plummeting toward the lowest prices in more than six years.

    Meta 
    META,
    -5.59%

     posted third-quarter earnings of $4.39 billion, or $1.64 a share, down from $9.2 billion, or $3.22 a share last year. Total sales, most of which come from ads, were $27.17 billion, down from $29 billion a year ago. Both results missed the average forecast for profit of $1.90 a share and sales of $27.44 billion, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

    Meta executives issued a fourth-quarter revenue forecast of $30 billion to $32.5 billion, while analysts were forecasting $32.3 billion.

    Daily active users, which edged up 3% to 1.98 billion, were in line with analysts’ projections of 1.98 billion for the quarter.

    “While we face near-term challenges on revenue, the fundamentals are there for a return to stronger revenue growth,” Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said in a statement announcing the results. “We’re approaching 2023 with a focus on prioritization and efficiency that will help us navigate the current environment and emerge an even stronger company.”

    In prepared comments, Meta’s departing chief financial officer David Wehner said it is “making significant changes across the board to operate more efficiently. We are holding some teams flat in terms of headcount, shrinking others and investing headcount growth only in our highest priorities. As a result, we expect headcount at the end of 2023 will be approximately in-line with third-quarter 2022 levels.”

    Shares in Meta plunged nearly 20% in after-hours trading, which would put it at levels the stock has not seen since 2016 if the decline were to last into Thursday’s regular trading session. Meta’s stock has been among the worst in tech this year, crashing and burning 61% so far, while the broader S&P 500 index 
    SPX,
    -0.74%

    has declined 19% in 2022.

    After closing with a 5.6% decline at $129.82, Meta shares cratered to less than $115 in after-hours trading; shares have not traded at that level in a regular session since the end of 2016, and have not closed that low since July 2016.

    “Meta is on shaky legs when it comes to the current state of its business,” Insider Intelligence analyst Debra Aho Williamson said in a note late Wednesday. “Mark Zuckerberg’s decision to focus his company on the future promise of the metaverse took his attention away from the unfortunate realities of today: Meta is under incredible pressure from weakening worldwide economic conditions, challenges with Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency policy, and competition from other companies, including TikTok, for users and revenue.”

    In a conference call outlining the results, Wehner pointed out softness in advertising among buyers in online commerce, gaming and financial services.

    Meta’s mess of a quarter came a day after Alphabet Inc.’s
    GOOGL,
    -9.14%

    GOOG,
    -9.63%

    Google reported disappointing ad sales — it missed FactSet analyst estimates by $2 billion — and warned of a deepening pullback in online ad spending. Last week, Snap Inc.
    SNAP,
    -0.21%

    posted slackening ad revenue that sent its shares tumbling more than 25%.

    Read more: Google ad sales take a hit and widely miss estimates, Alphabet stock drops 6%

    Meta announced the results two days after a hellacious Monday, when a major shareholder chastised its metaverse strategy and called for a 20% reduction in payroll costs, as well as a Bank of America note that downgraded the stock.

    Read more: Scathing Meta shareholder’s letter calls for layoffs, less spending on metaverse

    While acknowledging that some people object to Meta’s multibillion-dollar investment in the metaverse, Zuckerberg believes the investment will ultimately prove to be vitally important to Meta’s — and tech’s — future, he said in the conference call.

    Meta executives have blamed inflation, a decline in ad sales, the war in Ukraine, supply-chain issues, increased competition from services such as TikTok, and — most significantly — wrenching changes Apple Inc.  
    AAPL,
    -1.96%

    made to its mobile operating system that make it more difficult for apps to track consumers in ads.

    “We continue to see strategic diversification away from Meta by many advertisers, largely due to stubbornly high CPMs relative to other social platforms and persistent challenges in performance measurement,” Josh Brisco, group vice president of acquisition media at search-engine marketing company Tinuiti, told MarketWatch.

    One factor is a 13% decline in traffic to the Facebook web page in September, year-over-year, according to new report from Similarweb
    SMWB,
    -0.47%
    .
    “It’s been down all year, which makes you wonder if they’re going in too many directions — social media, the metaverse, Reels — and whether they are no longer the flavor of the month with competition from TikTok,” David Carr, senior insights manager at Similarweb, told MarketWatch.

    “First and foremost, the discussion needs to pivot to how to build an engaged community of users,” Alex Howland, president and founder of Virbela, which builds virtual worlds, told MarketWatch. “And for that, the metaverse must improve or compliment real-world experiences in some way so that people find value and keep coming back.”

    “Brands have to be focused on what is paying the bills now,” Mike Herrick, senior vice president of technology at Airship, an app-experience platform, told MarketWatch. “Metaverse is going to happen, but not during the life of this recession.”

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  • Google ad sales take a hit and widely miss estimates, Alphabet stock drops 6%

    Google ad sales take a hit and widely miss estimates, Alphabet stock drops 6%

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    Alphabet Inc. is feeling the sting of a downturn in digital-ad spending. Google’s parent company reported just 6% sales growth year-over-year Tuesday and missed widely on its advertising revenue, pushing shares down in extended trading.

    Alphabet 
    GOOGL,
    +1.91%

     
    GOOG,
    +1.90%

     reported net income of $13.9 billion, or $1.06 a share, in its fiscal third quarter, compared with net income of $1.40 a share in the same quarter a year ago. Total revenue improved a middling 6% to $69.1 billion from $61.88 billion a year ago, the slowest year-over-year growth since sales declined in June 2020, while revenue after removing traffic-acquisition costs was $57.3 billion, compared with $53.6 billion in the year-ago period.

    Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated net income of $1.26 a share on ex-TAC revenue of $58.2 billion and overall revenue of $71 billion. Alphabet shares slipped more than 6% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 2% increase at $104.48.

    The results, which missed in several key product categories, further rattled investors, already spooked by poor quarterly results last week from Snap Inc. 
    SNAP,
    +15.52%
    .
    Facebook parent company Meta Platforms Inc. 
    META,
    +6.01%

    is scheduled to report its third-quarter results Wednesday.

    Alphabet Chief Executive Sundar Pichai acknowledged the shortfall in ad revenue during a conference call with analysts. He vowed to take several measures, including a sharpened focus on products that improve search through artificial intelligence and to scale back hiring and other operating expenses.

    “There is no question we are operating in an uncertain environment,” Alphabet Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said on the call, noting reductions in ad spending by financial services that deepened during the third quarter.

    Google’s total advertising sales improved to $54.5 billion from $53.13 billion a year ago, but badly missed analysts’ average expectations for $56.58 billion. Search was $39.5 billion, compared with $37.93 billion last year. YouTube ad sales slipped to $7.07 billion from $7.21 billion a year ago.

    “When Google stumbles, it’s a bad omen for digital advertising at large,” Insider Intelligence analyst Evelyn Mitchell said. “Not only did Google miss analyst expectations for topline revenue, YouTube ad revenues shrank for the first time since Google started reporting YouTube earnings separately in Q4 2019, due in large part to persistent competition in streaming and short video.”

    Google’s Cloud revenue did climb to $6.9 billion from $4.99 billion; Google Cloud is believed to be third in cloud sales behind rivals Amazon.com Inc. 
    AMZN,
    +0.65%

    and Microsoft Corp. 
    MSFT,
    +1.38%
    .

    As is its customary practice, Alphabet did not disclose fourth-quarter guidance. But Alphabet Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat cautioned during the analyst call that the company faces “tough comps” in the current fourth quarter. Last year, Alphabet raked in $75.3 billion in Q4 revenue.

    Google’s stock has skidded 28% so far this year. The broader S&P 500 index 
    SPX,
    +1.63%

    is down 19% in 2022.

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  • Stocks are having a stellar October. Why the bear-market rally may have more room to run.

    Stocks are having a stellar October. Why the bear-market rally may have more room to run.

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    An earlier version of this story misstated the date of the U.S. midterm elections. They will be held Nov. 8, not Nov. 9.

    Despite a raft of risky events that investors must face down over the coming weeks, some on Wall Street believe that the latest bear-market rally in stocks has more room to run.

    Although the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.50%
    ,
    Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.97%

    and Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +16.23%

    remain mired in bear markets, stocks have been bouncing back from the “oversold” levels when the major indexes fell to their lowest levels in two years. Bear markets are known for sharp bounces, such as the rebound that took the S&P 500 up more than 17% from its mid-June low before sliding back down to set a new 2022 low on Oct. 12.

    With that said, here are a few things for investors to keep in mind.

    There’s plenty of event risk facing markets

    On top of a deluge of corporate earnings this week, including some of the biggest megacap tech stocks like Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.07%

    and Amazom.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.64%
    ,
    investors will also receive some key economic data reports over the next couple of weeks — including a reading from the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Friday, and the October jobs numbers, set to be released on Nov. 4.

    Beyond that, there’s also the Fed’s next policy meeting that concludes on Nov. 2. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates by another 75 basis points, the fourth “jumbo” hike this year.

    Midterm U.S. elections, which will determine which party controls the House and Senate in the U.S. are slated to take place Nov. 8.

    Investors are still trying to parse the Fed’s latest messaging shift

    Investors cheered what some market watchers described as a coordinated shift in messaging from the Fed last week, conveyed via an Oct. 21 report from The Wall Street Journal that indicated the size of a December Fed rate increase would be up for debate, along with comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

    Still, the Fed isn’t expected to materially pivot any time soon.

    Because the fact remains: there’s plenty of froth that needs to be squeezed out of markets after nearly two years of extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus unleashed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

    “It’s easier to inflate a bubble than to pop it, and I’m not using the term ‘bubble’ facetiously,” he said during a phone interview with MarketWatch.

    Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Merion Capital Group, played down the impact of the Fed’s latest “coordinated” shift in guidance during an interview with MarketWatch, saying the impact on the terminal fed-funds rate is relatively immaterial.

    Fed-funds futures traders anticipate the upper end of the central bank’s key target rate will rise to 5% before the end of the first quarter of next year, and remain there potentially into the fourth quarter, although an earlier cut wouldn’t be a complete surprise, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

    Market technicians believe stocks might move a little higher

    So far, October isn’t shaping up to be anything like September, when stocks fell 9.3% to polish off the worst first nine months of a calendar year in two decades.

    Instead, the S&P 500 has already risen more than 5.5% since the start of October despite briefly crashing to its lowest intraday level in more than two years following the release of the September consumer-price index report earlier this month.

    Read: ‘Bear killers’ and crashes: What investors need to know about October’s complicated stock-market history

    Technical indicators suggest the S&P 500 can continue to build on last week’s gain, said Katie Stockton, a market strategist at Fairlead Strategies, in a note she shared with clients and MarketWatch.

    According to her, the next key level to watch out for on the S&P 500 is north of 3,900, more than 100 points above where the index closed on Monday.

    “Short-term momentum remains to the upside within the context of the year-to-date downtrend. Support near 3,505 was a natural staging ground for a relief rally, and initial resistance is near 3,914,” she said.

    A key bear sees a tradeable opportunity

    Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, has been one of Wall Street’s most outspoken bears for more than a year now.

    But in a note to clients early this week, he reiterated that stocks were looking ripe for a bounce.

    “Last week’s tactical bullish call was met with doubt from clients, which means there is still upside as we transition from Fire to Ice — falling inflation expectations can lead to lower rates and higher stock prices in the absence of capitulation from companies on 2023 EPS guidance,” Wilson said.

    This earnings season is off to an good start

    At this point, it’s safe to say that the third-quarter earnings season has vanquished fears that the Fed’s interest-rate hikes and gnawing inflation had already dramatically eroded profit margins, market strategists said.

    The quality of earnings reported already has surpassed some of the early “whisper numbers” bandied about by traders and strategists, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings 5.4% above expectations, according to data from Refinitiv shared with the media on Monday. This compares to a long-term average — since 1994 — of 4.1%.

    However, when the energy sector is removed from the equation, expectations seem much more grim. The blended year-to-year earnings estimate for the third quarter is -3.6%, according to the Refinitiv data.

    While investors are still waiting on earnings from roughly three-quarters of S&P 500 firms, according to FactSet data, some — like Morgan Stanley’s Wilson — are already looking toward next year as they expect the outlook for profits will darken substantially, possibly leading to an earnings recession — when corporate earnings shrink for two quarters in a row.

    The outlook for the global economy remains dim

    Speaking of energy, crude oil prices are flashing an ominous warning about expectations for the global economy.

    “A lot of the weak oil reflects expectations that the global economy will be in recession and near recession,” said Steve Englander, global head of G-10 currency strategy at Standard Chartered.

    West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures
    CLZ22,
    +0.48%

     settled lower on Monday, as lackluster import data from China and the end of the Communist Party’s leadership conference hinted at softening demand in the world’s second-largest oil consumer. Prices continued to decline early Tuesday.

    Be wary of ‘fighting the Fed’

    Investors remain worried that “something else might break” in markets, as MarketWatch reported over the weekend.

    It’s possible that such fears inspired the Fed’s apparent guidance shift, Sosnick said. But the fact remains: anybody buying stocks while the Fed is aggressively tightening monetary policy should be prepared to tolerate losses, at least in the near term, he said.

    “Simplest thing of all is: ‘don’t fight the Fed.’ If you’re trying to buy stocks now, what are you doing? It doesn’t mean you can’t buy stocks overall. But it means you’re fighting an uphill battle,” he said.

    The VIX is signaling that investors expect a wild ride

    Even as stocks extended their October rebound for another session on Monday, the Cboe Volatility Index
    VIX,
    -4.49%

    remained conspicuously elevated, reflecting the notion that investors don’t anticipate the market’s wild ride will end any time soon.

    The Wall Street “fear gauge” finished Monday’s session up 0.5% at 29.85 and it was trading just shy of the 30 level early Tuesday.

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  • U.S. stock futures give up early gains after Wall Street’s best week since June

    U.S. stock futures give up early gains after Wall Street’s best week since June

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    U.S. stock futures gave up strong early-session gains overnight after Wall Street notched its best week since June.

    After initially surging about 300 points, or 1% on Sunday evening, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
    YM00,
    -0.02%

    were last about flat at midnight Eastern, while S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.05%

    and Nasdaq-100 futures
    NQ00,
    +0.16%

    similarly gave up sharp early gains.

    The U.S. Dollar Index
    DXY,
    +0.19%

    nudged higher, while the British pound
    GBPUSD,
    +0.12%

    surrendered much of an afternoon rally fueled by the possibility that Rishi Sunak will be Britain’s next prime minister, after Boris Johnson bowed out of the running. Crude prices
    CL.1,
    -0.55%

    ticked slightly higher Sunday.

    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +2.47%

     gained 748.97 points, or 2.5%, to close at 31,082.56. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.37%

     climbed 86.97 points, or 2.4%, to finish at 3,752.75, and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -0.81%

     rose 244.87 points, or 2.3%, to end at 10,859.72.

    The three major indexes scored their biggest weekly percentage gains since June last week. For the week, the Dow rose 4.9%, the S&P 500 gained 4.7% and the Nasdaq advanced 5.2%.  Yields on 10-year Treasury notes
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.156%

    ended Friday at 4.228%.

    Investors were heartened by reports that the Fed may back off slightly from its aggressive rate-hiking policy later this year.

    The upcoming week is the busiest of the third-quarter earnings season, with 165 S&P 500 companies, including 12 Dow components reporting. That includes earnings from Big Tech companies Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    +1.16%
    ,
    Amazon
    AMZN,
    +3.53%
    ,
    Apple
    AAPL,
    +2.71%
    ,
    Meta
    META,
    -1.16%

    and Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +2.53%
    .

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  • Snap stock plummets more than 25% as online advertising continues to struggle

    Snap stock plummets more than 25% as online advertising continues to struggle

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    A bruising year for Snap Inc.’s shares worsened Thursday, as the stock plummeted more than 20% in after-hours trading as executives launched the company’s first major share-repurchase program amid revenue issues in a poor environment for online advertising.

    Snap
    SNAP,
    -0.64%

    executives revealed that revenue increased less than 6% year-over-year in the quarter — its slowest quarterly grow ever recorded — and said that the holiday season is shaping up similarly, with sales increasing 9% so far in the quarter. The social-media company, which laid off roughly 20% of its staff this summer in response to the issues, also declined to provide a full forecast for the important fourth quarter.

    “Our revenue growth continued to decelerate in Q3 and continues to be impacted by a number of factors we have noted throughout the past year, including platform policy changes, macroeconomic headwinds, and increased competition,” executives said in a letter to shareholders, outlining the results. “We are finding that our advertising partners across many industries are decreasing their marketing budgets, especially in the face of operating environment headwinds, inflation-driven cost pressures, and rising costs of capital.”

    “Forward-looking revenue visibility remains incredibly challenging, and this is compounded by the fact that revenue in Q4 is typically disproportionately generated in the back half of the quarter, which further reduces our visibility,” executives explained about the lack of guidance in a letter to investors.

    The board did approve a $500 million share repurchase, a first for the young company. In a news release, executives said that the move was meant “to opportunistically offset a portion of the dilution related to the issuance of restricted stock units to employees as part of the overall compensation program designed to foster an ownership culture.”

    Snap’s results — the first among the major tech companies who rely heavily on digital advertising — likely portend even more turbulent times ahead for Alphabet Inc.’s 
    GOOGL,
    +0.34%

     
    GOOG,
    +0.24%

    Google, Facebook parent company Meta Platforms Inc. 
    META,
    -1.28%
    ,
     Twitter Inc. 
    TWTR,
    +1.18%
    ,
     Pinterest Inc. 
    PINS,
    -0.30%

    and others in the grip of inflation, a war in Ukraine, foreign-exchange worries and a widening recession.

    Snap’s desultory news sent shares tumbling in extended trading for Pinterest (-8%), Trade Desk Inc.
    TTD,
    +2.26%

    (-5), Meta (-4%) and Google (-3%).

    Deteriorating macroeconomic conditions have left advertisers with little choice but to delay or cancel buys. At the same time, intensifying competition from the likes of TikTok and others has deepened headwinds.

    “As a smaller player, Snap is more susceptible but no platform is immune,” Insider Intelligence analyst Jasmine Enberg told MarketWatch. “I expect more of the same results next week” when Google and Meta report, she added.

    Snap reported a third-quarter net loss of $359.5 million, or 22 cents a share, compared with a loss of 5 cents a share a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting a loss of 24 cents a share.

    Snap’s sales increased less than 6% to $1.13 billion, barely falling short of Street estimates of $1.14 billion. Daily active users rose 19% to 363 million. FactSet analysts had modeled 358.2 million.

    Snap shares initially fell more than 20% in after-hours trading. They closed the regular trading session down 0.6% to $10.79. Shares of Snap have nosedived 77% this year, while the S&P 500 index 
    SPX,
    -0.80%

    is down 23%.

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  • Meet the 10 biggest megadonors for the 2022 midterm elections

    Meet the 10 biggest megadonors for the 2022 midterm elections

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    With four weeks until Election Day, congressional candidates are on track to break midterm fundraising records, having raised nearly $2.5 billion so far this cycle. That’s already 70% more than what was raised during the 2014 cycle and just $200 million shy of the total raised during the full 2018 cycle.

    This cycle has also seen record-shattering outside spending, topping $1 billion through the beginning of October, according to an OpenSecrets estimate.

    The increase in spending and fundraising is due in large part to the involvement of millionaire and billionaire megadonors who have sought to influence the outcome of an election in which both chambers of Congress are in play.

    “When megadonors pump millions of dollars into super PACs, they get to help call the shots,” said Michael Beckel, research director at Issue One, a nonpartisan political reform organization. “Massive spending from a megadonor can influence what issues are talked about on the campaign trail and in Congress.”

    Super PACs are independent political action committees that can raise unlimited sums of money but are not allowed to coordinate with a candidate or campaign. Due to contribution limits, such as those restricting individuals’ candidate contributions to $2,900 per election per candidate, most megadonor spending goes to super PACs.

    More context: These are the basics of campaign finance in 2020 — in two handy charts

    A MarketWatch analysis of Federal Election Commission data through the end of September shows that these 10 business moguls and philanthropists are the biggest federal-level donors this cycle.

    Read: These 3 races could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate in 2023

    And see: If this seat flips red, Republicans will have ‘probably won a relatively comfortable House majority’

    Top federal-level megadonors this cycle
    Rank

    Contributor

    Total Contributions

    For Republicans

    For Democrats

    Nonpartisan/Bipartisan

    1

    George Soros

    $128,782,000

    $0

    $128,782,000

    $0

    2

    Ken Griffin

    $50,955,800

    $50,955,800

    $0

    $0

    3

    Richard Uihlein

    $49,117,000

    $49,117,000

    $0

    $0

    4

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    $39,931,000

    $201,000

    $37,725,000

    $2,005,000

    5

    Jeff Yass

    $32,754,000

    $32,754,000

    $0

    $0

    6

    Peter Thiel

    $30,189,000

    $30,189,000

    $0

    $0

    7

    Fred Eychaner

    $22,343,000

    $0

    $22,343,000

    $0

    8

    Stephen Schwarzman

    $21,870,000

    $21,865,000

    $0

    $5,000

    9

    Larry Ellison

    $21,003,000

    $21,003,000

    $0

    $0

    10

    Ryan Salame

    $18,932,000

    $17,432,000

    $0

    $1,500,000

    Totals:

    $415,877,000

    $223,517,000

    $188,850,000

    $3,510,000

    Source: MarketWatch analysis of FEC data as of Sept. 30, 2022
    Note: Partisan breakdown includes non-party affiliated PACs with over 95% of their spending benefitting one party, data has been rounded to the nearest thousand

    Big spending by itself doesn’t automatically mean winning. There have been notable instances of the financially strongest candidates losing (such as crypto-backed House candidate Carrick Flynn earlier this year and billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s self-financed presidential bid) — but money can certainly help put a candidate on the right track.

    “Money alone doesn’t guarantee electoral success, but every candidate prefers to be the one with more money to spend,” Beckel said. He added: “Outside spending on behalf of a candidate isn’t a silver bullet that’s going to guarantee electoral success. But it goes a long way to boosting somebody’s name recognition, and to presenting them as a viable candidate — somebody who has the resources to run a competitive campaign.”

    Information about the spending by the top 10 donors this cycle has been compiled from MarketWatch’s analysis of FEC data and filings, super PAC websites and previously reported comments. Read on to find out who are the top 10 biggest donors this cycle.

    10. Ryan Salame — $19 million

    Ryan Salame, the co-CEO of FTX Digital Markets, a subsidiary of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, founded a hybrid PAC earlier this year called American Dream Federal Action. The vast majority ($15 million) of the $19 million Salame has spent this cycle has gone into bankrolling the PAC, which has spent $2.4 million in independent expenditures supporting Illinois Republican Rep. Rodney Davis, $2 million supporting Republican Senate candidate Katie Britt from Alabama, and $1.2 million each supporting Arkansas GOP Sen. John Boozman and Brad Finstad, a GOP congressional candidate in Minnesota.

    On its website, the PAC describes itself as “organization dedicated to electing forward-looking candidates — those who want to protect America’s long term economic and national security by advancing smart policy decisions now.” A representative for Salame didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    9. Lawrence Ellison — $21 million

    The co-founder of Oracle
    ORCL,
    +0.26%

    has similarly bankrolled a PAC this election cycle — giving a total $20 million to Opportunity Matters Fund Inc. The super PAC has largely held onto its funds so far, recent FEC records show, having $17 million cash on hand as of the end of August. Of the independent expenditures it has made this cycle, it spent the most on Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker ($1.3 million), Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson ($1.3 million) and North Carolina Senate candidate and current Republican Rep. Ted Budd ($1.1 million). A representative for Ellison didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    8. Stephen Schwarzman — $22 million

    Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman, the CEO of private-equity giant Blackstone
    BX,
    -2.41%
    ,
    is the eighth biggest donor at the federal level this cycle. In March, Schwarzman gave $10 million to both the Senate Leadership Fund and Congressional Leadership Fund, super PACs aimed at obtaining a Republican majority in the Senate and House, respectively. A representative for Schwarzman didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    7. Fred Eychaner — $22 million

    Fred Eychaner has also contributed $22 million so far this cycle, but unlike most of the spending on this list, his has been directed toward Democratic causes. The chairman of Chicago-based Newsweb Corporation has given $9 million to the House Majority PAC and $8 million to the Senate Majority PAC, as well as just under $1.5 million to the Democratic National Committee and several hundred thousands to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. A representative for Eychaner didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    6. Peter Thiel — $30 million

    Venture capitalist Peter Thiel was heavily involved in backing Ohio Republican J.D. Vance’s primary bid, giving $15 million in the spring to the Vance-aligned Protect Ohio Values PAC.

    The massive primary investment was “historic” and record-setting, according to Beckel, who added that Thiel’s involvement in the Ohio Senate primary could mark “a new chapter of how mega donors are choosing to play in politics.”

    “I think it’s become clear for a lot of megadonors that there are high stakes to a lot of primaries, and by spending in the primary, where there is typically lower turnout than in say, a statewide general election, they can get a lot of bang for their buck by investing in a primary election,” Beckel added.

    Thiel has indicated that he doesn’t intend to put any more money toward Vance’s bid as he reportedly believes the Ohio candidate is on track to win, and instead will focus his funding on Arizona Republican Blake Masters’ bid to oust Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in the final weeks leading up to the midterm election.

    Thiel, known for his roles in PayPal
    PYPL,
    -1.69%
    ,
    Palantir
    PLTR,
    -0.25%

    and Facebook
    META,
    -3.92%
    ,
    has also given a total $15 million to the Masters-aligned PAC, Saving Arizona, with his most recent contribution in July. Both Vance and Masters are venture capitalists, but Masters has worked with Thiel. He served as chief operating officer of Thiel Capital and president of the Thiel Foundation, and he co-authored a book on startups with Thiel in 2014. A representative for Thiel didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    5. Jeff Yass — $33 million

    Options trader Jeff Yass, who founded trading firm Susquehanna International Group, has contributed about $33 million on a federal level this cycle. Yass has given $15 million to the School Freedom Fund, or the equivalent of 97% of the PAC’s total fundraising. The group focuses on the issue of school choice, and its website states that some bureaucrats “hindered the development and education of our youth through school closures, mask mandates, critical race theory, and more.”

    Aside from the School Freedom Fund, Yass’ other biggest contributions are to the conservative Club for Action ($6.5 million), Kentucky Freedom ($5 million), Protect Freedom ($2 million) and Crypto Freedom ($1.9 million). A representative for Yass didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    4. Sam Bankman-Fried — $40 million

    Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of FTX, is the main funder behind Protect Our Future PAC, giving it $27 million of the $28 million it raised this cycle. 

    The organization says on its website that it focuses on promoting Democratic candidates championing pandemic preparedness and prevention “so this is the last time in our lifetime, and our children’s lifetimes, that we will face the devastation that has gripped communities across the U.S. since 2020.”

    The group spent more than $10 million supporting Democrat Carrick Flynn’s House bid in Oregon. Flynn lost his primary in May by 18 points despite his massive outside spending advantage. In addition to Flynn, the group has made over $1 million in independent expenditures each supporting Democratic congressional candidates Lucy McBath, a current representative from Georgia; Jasmine Crockett of Texas, Adam Hollier of Michigan, Valerie Foushee of North Carolina and Shontel Brown, a current representative from Ohio.

    Most of the other $10 million Bankman-Fried spent this cycle has gone to the House Majority PAC ($6 million) and the crypto PAC GMI ($2 million).

    While the vast majority of his spending has supported Democratic candidates and causes, Bankman-Fried does not classify himself as an exclusively Democratic donor — for instance he gave $105,000 to the Alabama Conservatives Fund in June and $45,000 to the NRCC in July. 

    He told Politico in August that he is “legitimately worried about doing things that will make people view me as partisan when it’s not how I feel … because I think it both misses what I’m trying to do and makes it harder for me to act constructively.” A representative for the FTX boss didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    3. Richard Uihlein — $49 million

    Richard Uihlein is the founder of the shipping and business supply company Uline, and is a longtime conservative donor. This cycle has seen nearly $50 million in political spending by him, with just over half of it going to Club for Growth Action. Uihlein has also given about $14 million to Restoration PAC, an organization that says it is “dedicated to strengthening the foundations that made America the greatest nation in the world: God, family, education, and community.”

    Uihlein’s next largest contributions are to the conservative Team PAC ($2.5 million) and the Arkansas Patriots Fund ($2.2 million), which earlier this year made ad buys favoring Republican Sen. John Boozman’s primary opponent. A representative for Uihlein didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    2. Ken Griffin — $51 million

    With $51 million in federal-level political spending, Ken Griffin, CEO of hedge fund Citadel, is the second most prolific donor this cycle.

    The biggest beneficiaries are the Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund with $18.5 million in contributions, the Senate Leadership Fund with $10 million and Honor Pennsylvania, a super PAC that backed Republican Dave McCormick’s Senate bid. McCormick lost in the primary to Mehmet Oz by less than a thousand votes. 

    While Griffin spent about $64 million during the last cycle, his $51 million figure this year marks by far the most he has spent during a midterm cycle. During the 2018 cycle, his contributions totaled less than $8 million.

    A spokesperson for Griffin told MarketWatch that Griffin “supports leaders who are committed to protecting the American Dream and pursuing policies that will create a better future for the United States.”

    “The right policies will focus on creating rewarding jobs, prioritizing public safety, and investing in a strong national defense,” his spokesperson said. “Preserving the American Dream will require that every child is well educated, can access great healthcare, and has the opportunity to succeed.”

    1. George Soros — $129 million

    Not one donor comes close to matching the sum that billionaire philanthropist George Soros has contributed this cycle: $129 million. However, much of that money hasn’t actually been put to work this cycle.

    The majority of those on this list have focused their funding on Republican causes, but Soros’ money has gone to Democratic groups — specifically Democracy PAC II, whose $125 million in contributions comprises 99% of its fundraising. The super PAC spent more than $80 million on Democratic groups and candidates during the 2020 election.

    A representative for Soros pointed MarketWatch to a Politico article from January, in which Soros said the $125 million is aimed at supporting pro-democracy “causes and candidates, regardless of political party” who are invested in “strengthening the infrastructure of American democracy: voting rights and civic participation, civil rights and liberties, and the rule of law” and called his contribution a “long-term investment” that will  support political work beyond this year.

    So far this cycle, Democracy PAC has spent very little and holds $113 million in available cash. Contributions the PAC has made this cycle include $5 million to the Senate Majority PAC, $2.5 million to One Georgia and $1 million to both Care in Action and House Majority PAC.

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  • Dow falls 500 points Friday as stocks book third straight quarterly loss, set new 2022 lows

    Dow falls 500 points Friday as stocks book third straight quarterly loss, set new 2022 lows

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    U.S. stocks dropped sharply Friday, with major indexes posting their lowest finishes since 2020 and logging a third straight quarterly decline as investors grew more fearful that aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will drive the economy into a downturn in an attempt to quell inflation.

    What’s happening
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      -1.71%

      dropped 500.10 points, or 1.7%, to close at 28,725.51.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -1.51%

      dropped 54.85 points, or 1.5%, to end at 3,585.61.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -0.43%

      shed 161.88 points, of 1.5%, finishing at 10,575.61.

    The drop left the Dow and S&P 500 at their lowest since November 2020, while the Nasdaq posted its lowest close since July 29, 2020. The Dow dropped 8.8% in September, while the S&P 500 tumbled 9.3% and the Nasdaq lost 10.5%.

    For the quarter, the Dow dropped 6.7%, the S&P 500 declined 5.3% and the Nasdaq gave up 4.1%.

    What’s driving the market

    In keeping with the historical pattern, U.S. stocks suffered during the month of September as an assertive Federal Reserve helped push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which in turn undermined equity valuations.

    See: It’s the worst September for stocks since 2008. What that means for October.

    Investors on Friday digested a reading from the personal consumption expenditure inflation index for August, which showed that core consumer prices climbed by 0.6% last month, more than Wall Street’s forecast of 0.5%. The core inflation measure excludes volatile food and energy prices.

    See: Cheaper gas holds down inflation, PCE shows, but the cost of everything else is still going up fast

    “That means the Fed will remain hell-bent on killing inflation. And the best way to do that is to increase rates, kill the housing market, and get rental costs down. The PCE doesn’t have housing and rents as a big component as the CPI does, so the fact that it is rising is a warning sign,” said Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates, in emailed comments.

    Read: Will October be another stock-market ‘bear killer’? Why investors need to tread carefully around seasonal trends.

    The reading largely confirmed similar data from the consumer-price index, another closely watched inflation barometer, which sent stocks lower earlier this month. Since that report was released just over two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 10%.

    Helping to underscore this point, data out of the eurozone showed inflation accelerated at a record pace last month.

    See: Eurozone Inflation posts new record high of 10% in September

    In other news, investors also heard from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who reiterated that the central bank would keep interest rates elevated to combat inflation, even if it harms the economy.

    See: Fed won’t pull back from rate hikes prematurely, Brainard says

    Since it will take time for high interest rates to bring inflation down, Brainard said the Fed is “committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely.”

    Investors were also keeping an eye on megacap tech stocks. Apple Inc. AAPL fell 3% on Friday after leading markets lower a day earlier following a downgrade by Bank of America.

    Need to know: Here’s why investors should start betting on Apple and the stock market now

    A final reading on the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index for September showed consumers’ view of the economy improved somewhat during the month due to falling gas prices, even as their outlook remained broadly pessimistic.

    Investors are now facing “what may be one of the most important earning seasons in a very long time, with a major rally in the cards if earnings don’t disappoint, and if the bears are right, lead to a further leg down if earnings disappoint and 4th quarter estimates are cut,” Navellier said.

    See: U.S. consumers remain pessimistic about economy even as inflation fears wane

    Stocks in focus

    — Steve Goldstein and Barbara Kollmeyer contributed to this article

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