WARSAW, Poland — Poland’s defense minister said Tuesday that his country will accept a Patriot missile defense system which Germany offered to deploy to Poland last month.
The German offer was made after an errant missile fell in Poland near the border with Ukraine, killing two Polish men.
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak had initially said he accepted the offer with “satisfaction.” But he and other Polish officials later said they felt the Patriot system should be placed in Ukraine, something Germany was unwilling to do.
What appeared to be Poland cold-shouldering Germany’s offer created strains in the relationship between the two neighboring countries, which have a difficult history but today are important trade partners and allies in NATO.
Blaszczak said Tuesday on Twitter he was sorry Germany did not want to place the Patriot system in Ukraine.
“I was disappointed to accept the decision to reject the support of Ukraine,” he wrote. “Placing the Patriots in western Ukraine would increase the security of Poles and Ukrainians.”
Nonetheless, he said the two side were proceeding “with arrangements regarding the placement of the launcher in Poland and connecting them to our command system.”
Germany has said the Patriot system offered to Poland was part of NATO’s integrated air defense and only to be deployed on NATO territory.
———
Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
WARSAW, Poland — Poland’s government says an anti-missile system which Germany offered to send to Poland should instead go to Ukraine, a proposal that is a likely non-starter for Berlin because it would significantly ratchet up NATO involvement in Ukraine.
Poland’s surprising response to Berlin’s offer was welcomed by Ukraine, which is desperate to protect its airspace as barrage upon barrage of Russian missiles have knocked out power across the country.
But Germany’s Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht stressed that use of NATO defense systems outside its territory needs to be agreed by all member states.
“It is important to us that Poland can rely on allies to stand by each other, even in difficult times, and especially Poland in its exposed position,” Lambrecht told reporters in Berlin.
“That’s why we have offered to support air policing and Patriots, but these Patriots are part of an integrated air defense of NATO, that is, they are intended for NATO territory,” the minister said. “If they are used outside the NATO area, then it has to be agreed with NATO and with the allies beforehand.”
In Poland, critics of the populist ruling party accused it of sacrificing the country’s security with a war next door in Ukraine for the sake of a domestic political struggle which exploits anti-German sentiment for short-term gain.
The Rzeczpospolita daily called the new proposal by Poland’s leaders “shocking,” arguing that it would require sending German soldiers operating the system to Ukraine, and “that, in turn, would involve NATO in a direct clash with Russia, something the alliance has been trying to avoid from the beginning.”
“This proposal affects Poland’s credibility and, worst of all, its security. The Germans get a clear signal that we do not want their help, so the defense potential of the Polish sky will be lower,” deputy editor Michal Szuldrzynski wrote. “In the worst war in Europe since 1945, this is an unforgivable mistake.”
Poland’s populist ruling party, facing elections next fall with its popularity dented by 18% inflation, has been ratcheting up its anti-German messaging, long a staple of the party’s campaign rhetoric. Party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski has also been trying to link his domestic opponents, particularly Donald Tusk, a former European Union leader, to Germany, saying Sunday that if Tusk’s party wins next year, Poland would find itself “under the German boot.”
When Germany recently offered Warsaw Eurofighter planes and Patriot air defense missile batteries, Poland’s Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak initially said it was an offer he would accept with “satisfaction.” The offer came after two men were killed when an apparently stray Ukrainian defense projectile fell in Poland near the border with Ukraine on Nov. 15.
But Poland’s tune changed after Kaczynski gave an interview to the state news agency PAP on Wednesday, saying that the offer is “interesting,” but that “it would be best for Poland’s security if Germany handed the equipment to the Ukrainians.”
Since then, both Blaszczak and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki have repeated the position of Kaczynski, the country’s most powerful leader.
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, NATO beefed up its defenses along its eastern flank, including Poland, while Warsaw has worked to strengthen the nation’s own military with massive armaments purchases.
NATO deployed U.S. Patriot batteries to Poland, and German Patriot batteries to Slovakia, as well as a French equivalent system to Romania.
NATO’s policy is to not get directly involved in the war and to deploy the batteries only to protect member countries.
Tapping into anti-German feelings has long been a political strategy to win votes in Poland. Older Poles still carry the trauma of the atrocities inflicted on Poland by Germany during World War II. With the election campaigning underway, Poland has been demanding $1.3 trillion in wartime reparations from Germany — a bill Berlin says it won’t pay.
Kaczynski also blames Germany for supporting EU efforts to defend the rule of law in Poland and reverse changes to the judiciary, by withholding funding.
Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created new strains. Poland was long a critic of Germany’s gas deals with Russia and has also been critical of Berlin’s initial hesitancy to arm Ukraine.
In Poland, some critics pointed out that the government was not only refusing higher military protection but also turning its back on critical EU funding, billions of euros that have been held up by the government’s refusal to follow EU guidelines on safeguarding the independence of judges.
Marcin Kierwinski of the opposition Civic Platform party said Kaczynski “has gone mad” for “rejecting” the Patriot missiles and EU funding “during war and crisis.”
————
Associated Press writers Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin and Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed to this report.
—————
Follow all AP stories about the impact of the war in Ukraine at
WARSAW, Poland — Polish soldiers began laying razor wire Wednesday along Poland’s border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad after the government ordered the construction of a barrier to prevent what it fears could become another migration crisis.
Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said a recent decision by Russia’s aviation authority to launch flights from the Middle East and North Africa to Kaliningrad led him to reinforce Poland’s 210-kilometer (130-mile) border with Kaliningrad.
“Due to the disturbing information regarding the launch of flights from the Middle East and North Africa to Kaliningrad, I have decided to take measures that will strengthen the security on the Polish border with the Kaliningrad oblast by sealing this border,” Blaszczak said.
Blaszczak said the barrier along the border would be made of three rows of razor wire measuring 2½ meters (eight feet) high and 3 meters (10 feet) wide and feature an electronic monitoring system and cameras. The Polish side also will have a fence to keep animals away from the razor wire.
Before now, the sparsely inhabited border area was patrolled but had no physical barrier.
To the south, Poland’s border with Belarus became the site of a major migration crisis last year, with large numbers of people from the Middle East entering illegally. Polish and other EU leaders accused the Belarusian government — an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin — of masterminding the migration to create chaos and division within the 27-nation bloc.
Poland erected similar rolls of razor wire before building a permanent high steel wall on the border with Belarus, which was completed in June.
Blaszczak, the defense minister, said the government was persuaded to install fencing near Kaliningrad because of Poland’s experience at the Belarus border, where a similar action “prevented a hybrid attack from Belarus or significantly slowed down this attack.”
The chief executive of Khrabrovo Airport in Kaliningrad, Alexander Korytnyi, told Russia’s Interfax news agency on Oct. 3 that the facility would seek to “attract airlines from countries in the Persian Gulf and Asia,” including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
In the last month, Poland’s Border Guard agency has not detected anyone attempting to enter the country illegally from Kaliningrad, although a few mushroom pickers wandered into the area by mistake, agency spokeswoman Miroslawa Aleksandrowicz told state news agency PAP.
Some in Poland are criticizing the barrier.
Zuzanna Dabrowska, a commentator writing for the conservative daily newpaper Rzeczpospolita, wrote Wednesday that the barrier would be ineffective and a hazard because razor wire is dangerous for animals and people who try to cross it.
She argued that people from the Middle East and Africa were still trying to illegally enter Poland from Belarus despite the border wall.
“The barrier did not scare them away, because they have no safe retreat, pressured by Belarusian border guards,” Dabrowska wrote.
Poland’s government has strongly criticized critics of the Belarus border wall, depicting them as helping those who seek to harm Poland.
The exclave of Kaliningrad, with a population of about 1 million, is the northern part of what used to be the German territory of East Prussia and became part of the Soviet Union after World War II.
It is home to the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy and also an industrial center. Seaside dunes and resorts, what’s left of the old Prussian architecture in the city of Kaliningrad, and maritime and amber museums are among the tourist attractions.
Soldiers began laying the razor wire in Wisztyniec, the place where the borders of Poland, Russia and Lithuania meet. Lithuania, like Poland, is a member of both NATO and the European Union.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined Wednesday to comment on the Kaliningrad border barrier, describing it as “a Polish matter.”
———
Follow all AP stories on global migration at https://apnews.com/hub/migration
WARSAW, Poland — Poland’s defense minister said Wednesday that he has ordered the construction of a barrier along the border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
The move comes as Warsaw suspects that Russia plans to facilitate illegal border crossings by Asian and African migrants.
Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said the border needs to be sealed in order for Poland to feel secure. He said he had authorized the construction of a temporary barrier along the 210-kilometer (130-mile) border.
The work began on Wednesday with Polish soldiers specialized in demining carrying out preparatory work. It is due to be completed by the end of 2023.
Blaszczak said a recent decision by Russia’s aviation authority to launch flights from the Middle East and North Africa to Kaliningrad led him to take measures that would strengthen security “by sealing this border.”
A spokesman for the Border Guard agency, Konrad Szwed, told The Associated Press that the barrier would consist of an electric fence. There is currently no barrier along the border, but there are frequent patrols by border guards, he said.
Poland’s border with Belarus became the site of a major migration crisis last year, with large numbers of people crossing illegally. Poland erected a steel wall on the border with Belarus that was completed in June.
Polish and other EU leaders accused the Belarusian government — which is allied with Russian President Vladimir Putin — of masterminding the migration in order to create chaos and division within the European Union.
———
Follow all AP stories on global migration at https://apnews.com/hub/migration
Vladimir Putin in power has brutalized millions as he careens into tyranny.
Yet Vladimir Putin out of power will bring its own brand of chaos: a Shakespearean knife-fight for power; unleashed regional leaders; a nuclear arsenal up for grabs.
For now, few want to publicly talk about that post-Putin world, wary of the perception of meddling in domestic politics. But privately, western countries and analysts are plotting the scenarios that could unfold when Putin inevitably departs — and how Ukraine’s allies should react.
“I will be careful speculating too much about the domestic political situation in Russia,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said last week when asked how the alliance was preparing for the possibility of the Russian leader leaving office.
“Regardless of what different analyses may indicate, I think what we need to do at NATO is to be prepared for all eventualities and when it comes to Ukraine, be prepared to continue to support them,” he said.
One consensus: It won’t be a clean transition, posing myriad dilemmas that could strain Western allies. How much can — and should — they influence the succession process? What should they do if a Russian republic breaks away? What relationship should they pursue with Putin’s successor?
“We should put aside any illusions that what happens next immediately is democracy,” said Laurie Bristow, a former British ambassador to Russia.
“What I think happens next,” he added, “is probably a time of troubles.”
An explosive succession fight
For now, Putin is in a safe position. He still controls the state apparatus, and the military is executing his murderous orders in Ukraine.
But the Russian leader’s flailing invasion of Ukraine has diminished his position at home and deepened uncertainties over who would take over, and how.
“To manage a stable succession when the time comes — which will in Putin’s mind be a time of his choosing — then you need a high degree of elite consensus,” said Bristow, who served as the United Kingdom’s envoy in Moscow from 2016 until 2020.
“What they’ve done now is break that consensus,” he said, noting there is now more vying for power within the Kremlin.
That fighting could turn bloody once the Kremlin’s top job finally opens up.
“This could get very Shakespearean, think King Lear, or [the] Roman Empire, like I, Claudius, or Games of Thrones, very quickly,” said William Alberque, a former director of NATO’s arms control center.
Alexander Vershbow, a former senior U.S. and NATO official, said the most likely scenario was still a “smooth transition” within Putin’s current inner circle — but he conceded that toppling tyrants can beget turmoil. “There could be internal instability,” he said, “and things become very unpredictable in authoritarian systems, in personalistic dictatorships.”
Bristow, the former British ambassador, warned Western powers to stay out of such succession fights: “I think we have to recognize the limits of our ability to influence these outcomes.”
Although, the ex-envoy conceded, “we certainly have an interest in the outcome.”
Nukes = power
Russia is sitting on the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, featuring thousands of warheads that can each inflict massive destruction, death and trauma on a population.
The arsenal has long been a source of Russian strength on the world stage and a dominant part of its global image — for years, the possibility of a Kremlin nuclear strike dominated the public imagination in the U.S. and elsewhere.
In a period of leadership uncertainty, that arsenal could become a coveted symbol of power. That would put focus on the Russian military’s nuclear protector, the 12th Main Directorate, or GUMO.
“There’s a real possibility,” said Alberque, “that there would be deadly competition — competition to include people trying to rally different parts of the military — particularly the 12th GUMO that controls Russia’s nuclear arsenal.”
Rogue regions
Put simply, Russia is the largest country in the world, stretching across 11 time zones and climbing from the Caucasus to the Arctic.
While Putin may seem to hold a despotic grip on that entire expanse, there are a number of Russian republics with more tenuous connections to Moscow — and some with ambitious political figures. A power vacuum in a faraway capital could present an opening for local leaders to seize more control.
While most analysts believe the Russian Federation would largely hold together through a battle for Kremlin control, they acknowledge the Russian government has long feared fragmentation.
In the event of such factional fighting, all eyes will be on Ramzan Kadyrov, the brutal head of the Chechen Republic.
“Does he throw his weight behind a competing faction? Or does he say, ‘I’m good with a decade of massive Russian subsidies — now let’s break off, and I can probably rule Chechnya and Dagestan; I can have my own empire here’?” said Alberque, now a director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine could also come back to haunt the Kremlin.
Vershbow, a former American ambassador to Russia, said there is a “low probability” of disintegration but noted that “ironically” Putin’s annexation of areas in eastern Ukraine “could be cited as a precedent by separatist leaders inside the Russian Federation, to say ‘borders are now up for grabs’.”
A return of the reset debate
Once a new leadership team is in place, that’s when the most bedeviling policy debates will begin for Western governments.
With Putin off the political stage, some officials — in particular in western Europe — may argue there is an opportunity to forge a fresh relationship with Moscow.
The U.S. infamously offered Russia a symbolic “reset” button at the start of Barack Obama’s presidency, only to see relations deteriorate further. And Germany for years preached the gospel of economic engagement with Russia, only to declare a historic “Zeitenwende,” or turning point, after Moscow’s invasion.
With new leadership in the Kremlin, Germany may say “oh, Zeitenwende, never mind. Let’s push the U.S. to do another reset with the new Russian leader,” Alberque said.
Inevitably, NATO’s eastern wing would deplore such overtures. They’d argue “Russia never changes,” Alberque said, and lean on allies to not recede from the more assertive NATO stance adopted since the war began.
Polish Minister for National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak made exactly that point to POLITICO.
“Russia in a version with Tsar as a leader was the same like Russia in a version with a secretary-general of Communist party as a leader, and now it’s the same as Vladimir Putin as a leader,” he said.
“What is important from our perspective,” he added, “is to isolate Russia.”
For now, there is no expected Putin successor. But officials say they are expecting a regime with a similar ideology — or one even more extreme.
Jānis Garisons, a Latvian state secretary, pointed out that Putin has already jailed critics — and possible future leaders — like Alexei Navalny, and only more hardliners on the outside are ready to step in.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen at the Bocharov Ruchei state residence | Pool photo by Vladimir Smirnov/AFP via Getty Images
“The only people who criticize him” and not in prison “are from the right wing,” Garisons said.
“We should not fall victim to a junta or some group of people coming forward saying that they want a reset,” said Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, “if it’s still the same.”
One major difference this time around is that Europe is now less economically dependent on Moscow, reducing a key incentive to re-engage.
“We have gone a long way to stop buying from Russia,” said a senior EU diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “That would leave only the issues of nukes — but that will largely be with the Americans.”
Another signal Western leaders can look for is whether a Putin successor cooperates with international organizations seeking to prosecute Russian war crimes in Ukraine — a possibility, of course, that seems remote.
“Only a Russia determined to cooperate, would not represent a threat to Europe,” said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský.
Yet for all the assumptions that a cooperative Russia is far off, several current and former officials cautioned that western governments must combine deterrence with a longer-term effort to engage Russian civil society.
The Western alliance, said Bristow, must consider “how we reach out to Russian society beyond the Kremlin, to the next generation of Russian politicians, thinkers, intellectuals, teachers, businesspeople, to kind of spell out an alternative vision to the one they’ve got.”
“My sense,” he added, “is that quite a lot of people in Russia would like to do that.”
