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Tag: maritime

  • Middle East braces for chaos as Iran and West square up

    Middle East braces for chaos as Iran and West square up

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    Western warplanes and guided missiles roared through the skies over Yemen in the early hours of Friday in a dramatic response to the worsening crisis engulfing the region, where the U.S. and its allies are facing a direct confrontation with Iranian-backed militants.

    The strikes against Houthi fighters are a response to weeks of fighting in the Red Sea, where the group has attempted to attack or hijack dozens of civilian cargo ships and tankers in what it calls retribution for Israel’s military offensive in Gaza. Washington launched the massive aerial bombardment of the group’s military stores and drone launch sites in partnership with British forces, and with the support of a growing coalition that includes Germany, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, South Korea and Bahrain.

    Tensions between Tehran and the West have boiled over in the weeks since its ally, Hamas, launched its October 7 attack on Israel, while Hezbollah, the military group that controls much of southern Lebanon, has stepped up rocket launches across the border. Along with Hamas and Hezbollah, the Houthis form part of the Iranian-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ opposed to both the U.S. and Israel.

    Now, the prospect of a full-blown conflict in one of the most politically fragile and strategically important parts of the world is spooking security analysts and energy markets alike.

    Escalation fears

    Houthi leaders responded to the strikes, which saw American and British forces hit more than 60 targets in 16 locations, with characteristic bravado. They warned the U.S. and U.K. will “have to prepare to pay a heavy price and bear all the dire consequences” for what they called a “blatant aggression.”

    “We will confront America, kneel it down, and burn its battleships and all its bases and everyone who cooperates with it, no matter what the cost,” threatened Abdulsalam Jahaf, a member of the group’s security council.

    However, following the overnight operation, Camille Lons, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said there may now be “a period of calm because it may take Iran some time to replenish the Houthis stocks” before they are able to resume high-intensity attacks on Red Sea shipping. But, she cautioned, their motivation to continue to target shipping will likely be unaltered.

    The Western strikes are “unlikely to immediately halt Houthi aggression,” agreed Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. national intelligence officer for the Near East. “That will almost certainly mean having to continue to respond to Houthi strikes, and potentially with increasing aggression.”

    “The Houthis view themselves as having little to lose, emboldened militarily by Iranian provisions of support and confident the U.S. will not entertain a ground war,” he said.

    Iran also upped the ante earlier this week by boarding and commandeering a Greek-operated oil tanker that was loaded with Iraqi crude destined for Turkey, intercepting it as it transited the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel, the St. Nikolas, was previously apprehended for violating sanctions on Iranian oil and its cargo was confiscated and sold off by the U.S. Treasury Department. Its Greek captain and crew of 18 Filipino nationals are now in Iranian custody, with the incident marking a sharp escalation in the threats facing maritime traffic.

    Israeli connection

    Washington and London are striving to distinguish their bid to deter the Houthis in the Red Sea from the war in Gaza, fearful that merging the two will hand Tehran a propaganda advantage in the Middle East. The Houthis and Iran are keen to accomplish the reverse.

    The Houthi leadership claims its attacks on maritime traffic are aimed at pressuring Israel to halt its bombing of the Gaza Strip and it insists it is only targeting commercial vessels linked to Israel or destined to dock at the Israeli port of Eilat, a point contested by Western powers.

    “The Houthis claim that their attacks on military and civilian vessels are somehow tied to the ongoing conflict in Gaza — that is completely baseless and illegitimate. The Houthis also claim to be targeting specifically Israeli-owned ships or ships bound for Israel. That is simply not true, they are firing indiscriminately on vessels with global ties,” a senior U.S. official briefing reporters in Washington said Friday.

    Wider Near East crisis

    The Red Sea isn’t the only hotspot where American and European forces and their allies are facing off against Iran and its partners.

    In November, U.S. F-15 fighter jets hit a weapons storage facility in eastern Syria that the Pentagon says was used by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Shia militants it supports in the war-torn country. The response came after dozens of American troops were reportedly injured in attacks in Iraq and Syria linked back to Tehran.

    Israel’s war with Hamas has also risked spreading, after a blast killed one of the militant group’s commanders in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, earlier in January. Hezbollah vowed a swift response and tensions have soared along the border between the two countries, with Israeli civilians evacuated from their homes in towns and villages close to the frontier.

    All of that contributes to an increasingly volatile environment that has neighboring countries worried, said Christian Koch, director at the Saudi Arabia-based Gulf Research Center.

    “There’s a lot at stake at the moment and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and others are extremely worried about further escalation and then being subject to retaliation,” he said. “Now, the danger of regional escalation has been heightened further, which could mean that Iran will get further involved in the conflict, and this is a dangerous spiral downwards.”

    While long-planned efforts to normalize ties between the Saudis and Israel collapsed in the wake of the October 7 attack and the subsequent military response, Riyadh has pushed forward with a policy of de-escalation with the Houthis after a decade of violent conflict, and sought an almost unprecedented rapprochement with Iran.

    “Saudi Arabia has had one objective, which is to prevent this from escalating into a wider regional war,” said Tobias Borck, an expert on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute. “It has attempted over the last few years to bring its intervention in the war in Yemen to a close, including through negotiations with the Houthis and actually from all we know from the outside, [they] are reasonably close to an agreement.”

    The Western coalition is therefore a source of anxiety, rather than relief, for Gulf States.

    “Saudi Arabia and UAE are staying out of this coalition because mainly they don’t want to have the Houthis attack them as they had been for years and years with cruise missiles,” said retired U.S. General Mark Kimmitt, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs. However, American or European boots on the ground are unlikely to be necessary, he added, because “our capabilities these days to find, fix and attack even mobile missile launchers is pretty well refined.”

    Far-reaching consequences

    At the intersection of Europe and Asia, the Red Sea is a vital thoroughfare for energy and international trade. Maritime traffic through the region has already dropped by 20 percent, Rear Admiral Emmanuel Slaars, the joint commander of French forces in the region, told reporters on Thursday.

    According to data published this week by the German IfW Kiel institute, global trade fell by 1.3 percent from November to December, with the Houthi attacks likely to have been a contributing factor. 

    The volume of containers in the Red Sea also plummeted and is currently almost 70 percent below usual, the institute said. In December, that caused freight costs and transportation time to rise and imports and exports from the EU to be “significantly lower” than in November.

    In one indication of the impact on industrial supply chains, U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla said Friday it would shut its factory in Germany for two weeks.

    Around 12 percent of the world’s oil and 8 percent of its gas normally flow through the waterway, as well as hundreds of cargo ships. Oil prices climbed more than 2.5 percent following the strikes, fueling market concerns of the impact a wider conflict could have on oil supplies from the region, especially those being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and the world’s most important oil chokepoint. 

    The Houthi attacks on the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways, have already caused major shipping companies, including oil giant BP, to halt shipments through the Red Sea, opting for a lengthy detour around the Cape of Good Hope instead. 

    According to Borck, the impact on energy prices has been limited so far but will depend on what happens next.

    “We need to look for two actors’ actions here. One is the Houthis, how they respond, and the other one is, of course, looking at how Iran responds,” he said. While Tehran has the “nuclear option” of closing the Strait of Hormuz altogether, it’s unlikely to do so at this stage. 

    “I don’t think the Strait of Hormuz is next. I think there would be quite a few steps on the escalation ladder first,” he added.  

    But Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert at Brussels’ Bruegel think tank, warned that a growing confrontation with Iran could lead to tougher enforcement of sanctions on its oil exports. The West has turned a blind eye to Tehran’s increasing sales to China in the wake of the war in Ukraine, which has relieved some pressure on global energy markets. 

    A crackdown, he believes, “could see global oil prices rising substantially, pushing inflation higher and further complicating the efforts of central banks to bring it under control.”

    However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could help compensate for such a move by ramping up their own production — provided they’re willing to risk the ire of Iran.

    Gabriel Gavin reported from Yerevan, Armenia. Antonia Zimmermann from Brussels and Jamie Dettmer from Tel-Aviv.

    Laura Kayali contributed reporting from Paris.

    Gabriel Gavin, Antonia Zimmermann and Jamie Dettmer

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  • US Navy sinks Houthi rebel boats after Red Sea attack on container ship

    US Navy sinks Houthi rebel boats after Red Sea attack on container ship

    The U.S. Navy destroyed three boats carrying Houthi rebels in the Red Sea on Sunday after fighters attempted to board a container ship in the second attack against the vessel this weekend.

    Helicopters from two destroyers, the USS Eisenhower and USS Gravely, were dispatched after the Maersk Hangzhou issued a distress call at 6:30 a.m. Sunday morning, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on X, the ship’s second request for help in 24 hours.

    Four small boats arriving from Yemen had got to within 20 meters of the Danish-owned vessel and attempted to board it, according to CENTCOM, and fired on U.S. helicopters as they approached. “The U.S. Navy helicopters returned fire in self-defense, sinking three of the four small boats, and killing the crews,” it said, adding that there was “no damage to U.S. personnel or equipment.”

    On Saturday, Washington said it had shot down two anti-ship ballistic missiles after the Maersk Hangzhou issued its first distress call and reported being struck by a Houthi missile.

    The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations organization said there were no casualties in the shipping vessel’s crew.

    Maersk said on Sunday that it has paused all sailing through the Red Sea for 48 hours.

    Since November, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have launched over 20 attacks against ships in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial shipping lane between Europe and Asia where an estimated 15 percent of global trade passes. Several shipping lines and oil major BP have suspended operations in the area as a result.

    U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron said he spoke with his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, on Sunday and stressed Tehran’s responsibility regarding the Houthi rebels.

    “I made clear that Iran shares responsibility for preventing these attacks given their long-standing support to the Houthis,” Cameron said in a statement. The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea “threaten innocent lives and the global economy,” he added.

    The Houthis have said the strikes are in support of Palestinians in Gaza, where Israel is carrying out large-scale bombardments with U.S. backing in response to Hamas militants’ deadly attack against civilians in early October. In response, the U.S. set up a multinational naval taskforce to protect the route, which has been joined by countries including Denmark, Greece, the Netherlands and the U.K.

    Victor Jack

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  • Bulgarian millions, fake paperwork and the ‘cockroach strategy’: How Europe failed to sap Russia’s energy profits

    Bulgarian millions, fake paperwork and the ‘cockroach strategy’: How Europe failed to sap Russia’s energy profits

    BRUSSELS — In early August, Bulgarian officials spotted something they weren’t sure was legal.

    Barrels of Russian oil were arriving in the country priced above a $60 limit allies had adopted to sap Moscow of critical revenue for its war in Ukraine.

    Bulgaria was in an unusual position among its partners. It had been given an exemption to European Union sanctions barring most imports of Russian oil, ostensibly to ensure the country wouldn’t face acute energy shortages even though the EU’s broader policy aimed to crush Russia’s main cash artery following its full-scale assault on Kyiv.

    But could Bulgaria still import Russian oil if it was above the price cap? Customs officials in Sofia wanted to know for sure, so they reached out to EU officials asking for “clarification,” according to a private email exchange dated August 4 and seen by POLITICO. 

    The answer: Let it in. 

    “Crude oil imported based on these derogations does not need to be at or below $60 per barrel,” came the EU’s reply. 

    Green light in hand, Bulgaria proceeded to import Russian crude exclusively above the price cap from August until October, according to confidential customs data seen by POLITICO. The shipments were worth an estimated €640 million, according to calculations by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) think tank. The cash went to Russian energy firms, which pay the taxes helping fill the Kremlin’s war chest. 

    The sanctions gap is emblematic of the broader flaws that have corroded the EU’s attempt to stymie the billions Russia earns from energy exports. Roughly a year after adopting the initial penalties, legal loopholes have combined with poor enforcement and a mushrooming parallel trade to keep Moscow’s fossil fuel revenues flowing, and feeding almost half of Vladimir Putin’s war-hungry budget.

    Russian oil is likely winding up as fuel in Europe via new routes. Enforcement across the Continent is scattered and reliant on inconsistent data. And a whole new black market has sprung up to insure, ship and hide Russia’s fuel as it travels the world.

    The sanctions, in other words, have come up short. Russia’s oil export earnings have dropped just 14 percent since the restrictions were imposed. And in October, Russia’s fossil fuel revenues hit an 18-month high.

    It also appears the EU has run out of steam to do much about it. The latest EU sanctions package, set to be finalized at a leaders’ summit this week, is mostly focused on administrative tweaks that experts say will do little to curb widespread evasion. Absent are any efforts to drop the level of the oil price cap further.

    “The whole sanction mechanism works only if you keep adopting on a regular basis decisions that close loopholes and impose new sanctions,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told POLITICO. “Every actor in the world has the capacity to adapt.”

    The Bulgarian oversight

    The reason behind Bulgaria’s price cap loophole is arguably a clerical oversight.

    When the EU wrote the G7 nations’ price cap into law, officials expressly forbade EU shipping firms and insurance companies from trafficking Russian oil above the $60 threshold to non-EU countries. The aim was to squeeze the Kremlin’s revenues while keeping global oil flows steady.

    But officials never thought to impose similar rules on shipments to EU countries, partly because Brussels had banned Russian seaborne crude oil imports that same day.

    Except for Bulgaria.

    The backdoor has meant millions in extra revenue for Moscow. According to CREA, Russian oil export earnings from Bulgarian sales between August to October — a third of which came from sales above the price cap — raised around €430 million in direct taxes for the Kremlin. All Russian-origin shipments delivered during this time — priced between $69 and $89 per barrel — relied on Western help, including from Greek ship operators and British and Norwegian insurers.

    And it was all technically legal.

    The situation “reveals that Bulgaria has aided Russia to exploit this glaring loophole to maximize the Kremlin’s budget revenues from these oil sales without any apparent benefits for Bulgarian consumers,” said Martin Vladimirov, a senior analyst at the Sofia-based Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) think tank, which has studied the issue.

    More broadly, Bulgaria’s exemption from the Russian oil ban has been lining the pockets of both Russia’s largest private oil firm, Lukoil, which dominates Bulgaria’s fuel production with its sprawling Black Sea refinery, and the Kremlin itself. 

    More broadly, Lukoil’s crude oil imports to Bulgaria raked in over €2 billion in export revenues for Russia since the sanctions went into effect in February, according to a new CREA and CSD analysis. And the Kremlin has made €1 billion in direct taxes from the sales, POLITICO revealed last month

    There is now mounting pressure to mend these money-making fissures.

    Bulgaria has vowed to cut short its opt-out from the Russian oil ban by six months, provisionally moving the deadline up to March.

    And Kiril Petkov, the former prime minister who leads one of two parties controlling Bulgaria’s current governing coalition, told POLITICO the price cap workaround should “absolutely” be closed too. He vowed to pressure the government and ask the European Commission, the EU’s executive in Brussels, to do so, while insisting that Bulgaria is accelerating its efforts to shake off its Russian energy ties, unlike nearby countries like Slovakia

    Bulgaria proceeded to import Russian crude exclusively above the price cap from August until October, according to confidential customs data seen by POLITICO | Robert Ghement/EPA-EFE

    “We do not like the $60 loophole that was created by the EU Commission derogation,” Petkov said. “We don’t want Putin to receive any euro that he doesn’t have to.”

    The Bulgarian case “highlights one of the many loopholes that make sanctions less effective at lowering Russian export earnings used to finance the Kremlin’s war chest,” according to Isaac Levi, who leads CREA’s Russia-Europe team.

    Bulgaria’s finance ministry and Lukoil didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    ‘Not all rainbows and unicorns’ 

    A major challenge is poor monitoring and enforcement. 

    In October, a report commissioned by the European Parliament found EU sanctions enforcement is “scattered” across over 160 local authorities, while capitals have “dissimilar implementation systems” that include “wide discrepancies” in penalties for violations.

    That assumes you can find a breach to begin with. Even those involved in shipping oil get only limited access to information on trades, according to Viktor Katona, chief crude analyst at the Kpler market intelligence firm.

    Insurers, for example, rely on a single document from firms buying and selling oil cargoes pledging the sale is not above $60 per barrel, which amounts to a “declaration of faith,” he said. 

    The EU’s upcoming 12th package of sanctions is trying to crack down on this problem with new rules forcing traders to actually itemize specific costs. The goal is to prevent buyers from purchasing Russian oil above the limit and then hiding the extra costs as insurance or transport fees. But few in the industry have high hopes the added paperwork will stop the workaround. 

    Several EU countries with large shipping industries are also reluctant to tighten the price cap, making things even trickier. During the latest round of sanctions, Cyprus, Malta and Greece once again raised concerns over calls to strengthen the restrictions, according to two EU diplomats, who like others in the story were granted anonymity to speak freely.

    A diplomat from a major maritime EU nation said stricter sanctions would only push Russia to use more non-Western operators to ship oil. Instead, the diplomat argued, the focus should be on broadening the countries adhering to the price cap. Currently, the G7, the EU and Australia are on board.

    “It would be stupid to push for price caps, and then other shipping registers do not abide by it because they are not EU members,” the diplomat said, adding that “all that will be achieved is the total destruction of the shipping industry.”

    Meanwhile, EU countries are still allowing Russian oil cargoes to cross their waters on their way elsewhere.

    CREA research on behalf of POLITICO found that 822 ships transporting Moscow’s crude transferred their cargo to another ship in EU territorial waters — the majority in Greek, but also Maltese, Spanish, Romanian and Italian waters — since the oil sanctions kicked off last December. The volumes were equivalent to 400,000 barrels per day.

    A Commission spokesperson defended the EU sanctions, noting Russia has been forced to spend “billions of dollars” to adapt to the new reality, including on new tankers, and its oil extraction and export infrastructure as Western demand shriveled.

    That has caused “serious and ongoing economic and policy consequences,” the Commission spokesperson said. And CREA did find that the oil price limit has stripped the Kremlin of €34 billion in export revenues, equivalent to roughly two months of earnings this year.

    Others point out that teething issues are normal — it’s the first time the EU has deployed sanctions at such a scale.

    “Let’s be fair … all of the sanctions measures are unprecedented, so there’s an element of learning by doing it, as well,” said one of the EU diplomats. “We don’t live in a perfect world: it’s not all rainbows and unicorns.”

    Deep dark waters 

    Instead of accepting the tough rules designed to drain its finances, Moscow has sparked a sanctions circumvention arms race, looking for loopholes as part of what one senior Ukrainian official has described as a “cockroach strategy.”

    To ensure it can sell its fossil fuels at whatever price it can get, in violation of the oil price cap and other restrictions, Russia has presided over the creation of a parallel shipping market that, through a mixture of law-breaking and law-bending, is lining the pockets of its state energy firms and oligarchs.

    A “shadow fleet” of aging tankers has emerged, mysteriously managed through a network of companies that obscure their ownership, frequently trading their cargo of fuel with other ships at sea. To help them escape the jurisdiction of Western sanctions while meeting basic maritime requirements, a cottage industry of murky insurance firms has sprung up in countries like India.

    “When they were introduced, the sanctions seemed to be having an effect for a very short time. But now the state of play is most of the sanctions that have been in place have not really worked — or they’ve been very limited in terms of what they’ve been able to do,” said Byron McKinney, a director at trade and commodity firm S&P.

    As Russian trades move increasingly away from Western operators and traders, that makes tracking them even more difficult, said Katona, the Kpler oil analyst.

    “Every single” Russian type of oil now trades above the price cap, he said, while CREA estimates only 48 percent of Russian oil cargoes were carried on tankers owned or insured in G7 and EU countries in October. 

    “It’s like coming to a party and telling everyone not to drink alcohol, but not coming to the party yourself,” Katona said. “How do you make sure that no one’s drinking?”

    At the same time, countries like India have increased their imports of cheap Russian crude by 134 percent, CREA found, processing it and then selling it everywhere. That means European consumers could unknowingly be filling up their cars with fuel produced from Russian crude, bankrolling Moscow’s armed forces at the same time.

    The waning West?

    The EU is well aware of the problem. 

    “Unless you have big players like India and China as part of it, effectiveness sooner or later fades away,” conceded one senior Commission official. 

    “It shows us the limits of what the tools of Western players can achieve at a global level,” the official added, noting it’s “a lesson in how much the [global] power balance has changed compared to 10 or 20 years ago.”

    Expectations are low, however, that India or China — or Turkey, another critical shipping country — will come around to the price cap any time soon.

    And back in Brussels, political leaders seem to be throwing up their hands. When EU leaders gather for their summit on Thursday, the sanctions package they’re expected to endorse will do little to stanch the flow of Russia’s energy cash, omitting any measures targeting Russian oil or lowering the price cap.

    Until such steps are taken, Russia’s finances won’t truly wither, said Alexandra Prokopenko, an economist and nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

    “The oil price is now the only real channel of transmission for external risk,” she said. “Russia will feel extremely bad if the average price on its oil is $40 or $50 per barrel — that would be painful for its budget and for Putin’s ability to finance expenditures.”

    Getting to that point, however, was never going to be easy.

    “The Russian economy was quite a big animal,” Prokopenko said, “that makes it hard to shoot it with a single shot.”

    Victor Jack and Giovanna Coi reported from Brussels. Gabriel Gavin reported from Yerevan.

    Claudia Chiappa contributed reporting from Brussels.

    Victor Jack, Gabriel Gavin and Giovanna Coi

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  • Ukraine declares war on Russia’s Black Sea shipping

    Ukraine declares war on Russia’s Black Sea shipping

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    Russian ports and ships on the Black Sea — including tankers carrying millions of barrels of oil to Europe — could justifiably be attacked by the Ukrainian military as part of efforts to weaken Moscow’s war machine, a senior Kyiv official warned Monday in the wake of two recent attacks on Russian vessels.

    “Everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea are our valid military targets,” Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told POLITICO, saying the move was retaliation for Russia withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal and unleashing a series of missile attacks on agricultural stores and ports.

    “This story started with Russia blocking the grain corridor, threatening to attack our vessels, destroying our ports,” Ustenko said. “Our maritime infrastructure is under constant attack.”

    Over the weekend, Ukraine declared the waters around Russia’s Black Sea ports a “war risk area” from August 23 “until further notice.” The zone includes major Russian ports like Novorossiysk, Anapa, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman.

    That’s causing insurance rates for ships to skyrocket and could imperil one of Russia’s main export routes for oil and oil products — key in ensuring the Kremlin has enough cash to keep waging war against Ukraine.

    “This story started with Russia blocking the grain corridor, threatening to attack our vessels, destroying our ports,” Ustenko said | Yasin Akgul/AFP via Getty Images

    “After this weekend, the Black Sea feels like a more dangerous place for international shipping, and it was already very dangerous,” said Byron McKinney, director with S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Many vessels simply don’t go to the area. Insurance is pretty much nonexistent. Where there are insurance rates they’re very high and that’s only going to increase.”

    On Saturday, Russia’s federal maritime agency, Rosmorrechflot, reported that a Russian tanker, the Sig, had been hit in an apparent strike by Ukrainian forces while sailing close to Ukraine’s occupied Crimean peninsula.

    “The tanker received a hit on its engine room, close to the waterline on the starboard side, presumably as a result of an attack by a sea drone,” officials said.

    Ukraine’s defense ministry said that as long as Russians “terrorize peaceful Ukrainian cities and destroy grain condemning hundreds of millions to starvation,” there would be “no more safe waters or peaceful harbors for you in the Black and Azov Seas.”

    Crude crisis

    Last month, Russia shipped almost 59 million barrels of crude oil, a third of its overall exports, from the strategic Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, according to intelligence firm Kpler. Of that, 32 million barrels went to EU countries. The port also handles other fuels like diesel, gasoil and naphtha in addition to grain destined for the global market.

    Novorossiysk is also where the Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil conduit terminates, bringing up to 1.3 million barrels a day of oil from Kazakhstan — from where it is shipped on to world markets.

    Last month, Russia shipped almost 59 million barrels of crude oil | Francois Lo Presti/AFP via Getty Images

    Novorossiysk is also home to a major naval base of the Black Sea Fleet. Last week, a Ukrainian sea drone hit and damaged a Russian military landing vessel, the Olenegorsky Gornyak.

    The proximity of Moscow’s military to trade ports could increase the risk to civilian vessels, warned Alexis Ellender, a commodities analyst with Kpler.

    “Those operating on the shipping markets are saying they obviously don’t expect Ukraine to attack commercial shipping, but there’s a risk that installations or ships get caught in the crossfire and there’s a lot of trade that moves through Russia’s Black Sea ports,” he said. “There’s a lot of Greek ships working on these trades and while some owners are reluctant to carry Russian cargo, there’s a whole international mix there.”

    Shipping forecast

    The growing risk the conflict poses to busy international waterways will mean tough decisions for the shipping industry, and for traders tempted to keep buying cheap Russian oil under the terms of a $60 per barrel price cap set last year by the G7.

    “You’ve still got Greek and Turkish tankers operating around that zone though, working with Russian oil within the price cap restrictions, and there were quite a few foreign-owned vessels in and around the vicinity of the drone attack in Novorossiysk,” said McKinney. “The most interesting question to come out of this is whether they will be deterred in the future if their multimillion dollar assets are now at risk from a stray missile or whatever it may be.”

    The International Chamber of Shipping, which represents shipowners and operators, declined to comment on whether the latest flareups in the Black Sea would deter its members from doing business there.

    But, for Ustenko, Western companies should already be realizing there can be no more business as usual with Russia.

    “From a legal and moral perspective, it’s completely unjustifiable for these vessels to continue to deliver Russian oil,” he said. “Now that’s supported from the economic point of view as well since the risk is extremely high. Under these circumstances, the prices of insurance are going to jump significantly, making these deliveries unprofitable. Your vessel and your crew is going to be under huge risk.”

    “The big companies selling insurance, doing financing, are they prepared to continue this kind of work when they see these pictures coming from the Black Sea?” Ustenko asked. “This is the right moment for even those still trying to close their eyes and pretend nothing has really happened for them to realize — no way.”

    Hanne Cokelaere contributed reporting.

    Gabriel Gavin

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  • Drone attack on tanker shows Kyiv’s intent to hit Russian energy shipments

    Drone attack on tanker shows Kyiv’s intent to hit Russian energy shipments

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    KYIV — An overnight naval drone attack against a Russian tanker in the Black Sea signals a potential new front in the Ukraine war, with Kyiv delivering its strongest message to date that it is willing to target Moscow’s all-important shipments of oil and fuel.

    The battle for supremacy in the Black Sea is ramping up fast, with massive implications for global energy and food security. The attack on the tanker off Crimea came only a day after another Ukrainian marine drone — a flat, arrowhead-shaped vessel packed with explosives — targeted a Russian naval base near the port of Novorossiysk, badly damaging a warship.

    “The tanker was damaged in the Kerch Strait during an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” Russia’s state-run TASS news agency reported on Saturday. “The crew is safe, the Maritime Rescue Center informed us. The engine room was damaged. Two tugboats arrived at the scene of an emergency with a tanker in the Kerch Strait, the question of the towing vessel is being resolved,” it said.

    Russia’s Federal Marine and River Transport Agency reported it was a SIG oil and chemical tanker — a ship whose owner, St. Petersburg-based company Transpetrochart, was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2019 for supplying jet fuel for Russian forces in Syria.

    Tensions are rising in the Black Sea after Russia last month announced it was withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative and started attacking Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea coast and on the Danube River with missiles, destroying tens of thousands of tons of Ukrainian grain.  

    After those attacks and the blockade, Ukrainian officials issued a statement in July that Russian vessels will be no longer safe in the Black Sea. Kyiv’s defense ministry said in a statement that such vessels “may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the corresponding risks” from midnight Friday.

    On Saturday, Kyiv announced a “war risk area” around Russian ports on the Black Sea, specifically citing the ports of Novorossiysk, Anapa, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman. The declaration will be in effect from August 23 “until further notice,” it said.

    ‘Completely legal’

    Marine Traffic, an online maritime tracking site, has the latest position of the SIG tanker fixed near the Kerch Strait “at anchor.”  

    Russia’s Marine and River Transport Agency reported all 11 crew members on board were safe and that the tanker was struck in the engine room near the waterline on the starboard side, presumably as a result of an attack by a marine drone. By morning, the water pouring to the engine room has been staunched, and the vessel was afloat, Russian official said.

    Ukraine almost never directly takes responsibility for these kinds of attacks. However, Vasyl Malyuk, head of the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, has previously claimed responsibility for the attacks on the Crimean bridge and hinted that there will be more similar attacks soon.

    “Anything that happens with the ships of the Russian Federation or the Crimean Bridge is an absolutely logical and effective step in relation to the enemy. Moreover, such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal,” Malyuk said in a statement on Saturday.

    “So, if the Russians want that to stop, they should leave the territorial waters of Ukraine and our land. And the sooner they do it, the better it will be for them. Because we will one hundred percent defeat the enemy in this war.”

    Waters near Russian-occupied Crimea and the Kerch Strait are Ukrainian territorial waters, according to international maritime law.

    “Since 1991, Russia has systematically used the territorial waters of Ukraine to organize armed aggressions: against the Georgian people and against the people of Syria,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a social media post on Saturday.

    “Today, they terrorize peaceful Ukrainian cities and destroy grain, condemning hundreds of millions to starvation. It’s time to say to the Russian killers, ‘It’s enough.’ There are no more safe waters or peaceful harbors for you in the Black and Azov Seas,” the ministry said.

    Veronika Melkozerova

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  • Scouring the seas for Putin’s pipeline saboteurs

    Scouring the seas for Putin’s pipeline saboteurs

    It’s an hour before dawn breaks over the North Sea. Aboard the KV Bergen, the officer of the watch is wide awake. 

    The 93-meter long Norwegian Navy Coast Guard vessel is on patrol, 50 miles out to sea. The sky is dark, the sea darker. But off the starboard bow, bright lights gleam through the rain and mist. Something huge and incongruous is looming out of the water, lit like a Christmas display.  

    “Troll A,” says Torgeir Standal, 49, the ship’s second in command, who is taking the watch on this bleak March morning. 

    It’s a gas platform — a big one.  

    When it was transported out to this desolate spot nearly 30 years ago, Troll A — stretching 472 meters from its seabed foundations to the tip of its drilling rig — became the tallest structure ever moved by people across the surface of the Earth. Last year, Troll, the gas field it taps into, provided 10 percent of the EU’s total supply of natural gas — heating homes, lighting streets, fueling industry. 

    “There are many platforms here,” says Standal, standing on the dark bridge of the Bergen, his face illuminated by the glow from the radar and satellite screens on his control panel. “And thousands of miles of pipeline underneath.” 

    And that’s why the Bergen has come to this spot today. 

    In September 2022, an explosion on another undersea gas pipeline nearly 600 miles away shook the world. Despite three ongoing investigations, there is still no official answer to the question of who blew up the Nord Stream pipe. But the fact that it could happen at all triggered a Europe-wide alert.

    The Norwegian Navy’s KV Bergen, seen in the background, after departing from the port of Bergen

    Against a backdrop of growing confrontation with Moscow over its brutal invasion of Ukraine and its willingness to use energy as a weapon, the vulnerability of the undersea pipes and cables that deliver gas, electricity and data to the Continent — the vital arteries of comfortable, modern European life — has been starkly exposed. 

    In response, Norway, alongside NATO allies, increased naval patrols in the North Sea — an area vital for Europe’s energy security. The presence of the Bergen, day and night, in these unforgiving waters, is part of the effort to remain vigilant. The task of the men and women on board is to keep watch on behalf of Europe — and to stop the next Nord Stream attack before it happens. 

    The officers of the watch 

    But what are they looking for? 

    In recent weeks the Bergen has tracked the movements of a Russian military frigate through the North Sea — something that it has to do “several times every year,” says Kenneth Dyb, 47, the skippsjef, or commander of the ship. 

    The Russians have a right to sail through these seas out to the Atlantic, and it is very unlikely Moscow would be so brazen as to openly attack a gas platform or a pipeline. But, says Dyb, as his ship steams west to another gas and oil field, Oseberg, “it’s important to show that we are present. That we are watching.” 

    Recent reports that Russian naval ships — with their trackers turned off — were present near the site of the Nord Stream blasts in the months running up to the incident have reinforced the importance of having extra eyes on the water itself. 

    The Oseberg oil and gas field, 130 kilometers north-west of Bergen

    Of course, the gas didn’t come for free. Norway has profited hugely from the spike in gas and oil prices that followed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The state-owned energy giant Equinor made a record $75 billion profit in 2022. Oslo is sensitive to accusations of war profiteering — and keen to show Europe that it cares about its neighbors’ energy security as much as it cares about their cash. 

    But the threat to the pipelines could also be more low-key. One of the many theories about the Nord Stream attack is that it was carried out by a small group of divers, operating from an ordinary yacht. In such a scenario, something as seemingly innocent as a ship suddenly going stationary, or following an unaccustomed course through the water, could be suspicious. The Bergen’s crew have the authority to board and inspect vessels that its crew consider a cause for concern.  

    Russia’s covert presence in these waters has been acknowledged by Norway’s intelligence services in recent weeks. A joint investigation by the public broadcasters in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland uncovered evidence of civilian vessels, such as fishing ships, being used for surveillance activities. This is something that has been “going on forever,” according to Ståle Ulriksen, a researcher at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, but it has increased in intensity in recent years. 

    “We always look for oddities, anything that is unusual, like new ships in the area that have not been here before,” says Magne Storebø, 26, senior petty officer, as he takes the afternoon watch on the bridge later that day. 

    The sky is leaden and the horizon lost in cloud. Coffee in hand, Storebø casts his eye over the radar and satellite screens as giant windscreen wipers whip North Sea spray from the floor-to-ceiling windows. There are few ships around, all of them familiar to the crew; service vessels plying back and forth from the gas and oil platforms. 

    The Nord Stream incident and the new security situation has changed the way Storebø thinks about his work, he says. 

    He is “more aware of the consequences suspicious vessels could have,” he says. “More awake, you could say.”   

    Senior Petty Officer Magne Storebø keeps watch from the bridge

    Soft-spoken and calm beyond his years, Storebø is philosophical about the potential dangers of his work. He has been in the Navy for four years, in which time war has broken out on the European continent and the threat to his home waters has come into sharp focus. 

     “If you are going to put a rainy cloud over your head and bury yourself down, I don’t think the Navy or the coastguard is the right place to work in,” he says in conversation with two shipmates later that day. “You need to adjust and to look in a positive direction — and to be ready in case things don’t go that way.” 

    Energy war round two 

    As Europe emerges from the first winter of its energy war with Russia, its gas supplies have held up better than almost anyone expected. 

    But as the Continent braces for next winter, the risk of another Nord Stream-style attack to a key pipeline is taken seriously at the highest levels of leadership. 

    “Things look OK for gas security now,” said one senior European Commission official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters of energy security. “But if Norway has a pipeline that blows up, we are in a different situation.” 

    EU policymakers see four key risks to gas security going into next winter, the senior official added: exceptionally cold weather; a stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery hoovering up global gas supply; Russia cutting off the remaining gas it sends to Europe; and last but not least, an “incident” affecting energy infrastructure. 

    Such an event might not only threaten supply but could potentially spark panic in the gas market, as seen in 2022, driving up prices and hitting European citizens and industries in the wallet. And nowhere is the potential for harm greater than in the North Sea. 

    Norway is now Europe’s biggest single supplier of gas. After Russian President Vladimir Putin and the energy giant Gazprom shut off supply via Nord Stream and other pipelines, Norway stepped up its own production in the North Sea, delivering well over 100 billion cubic meters to the EU and the U.K. in 2022. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Troll A herself in March this year — the first visit of a Commission president to Norway since 2011 — to personally thank the country’s president, Jonas Gahr Støre, for supplies that “helped us through the winter.” 

    “We have a huge responsibility, supplying the rest of Europe with energy,” Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram told POLITICO. “To be a stable, reliable producer of energy, of gas, is an important role for us and we take that very seriously. That is why we are also doing so much to protect this infrastructure.” 

    The vast majority of that gas is transported into northwest Europe via a complex network of seabed pipes — more than 5,000 miles of them in Norway’s jurisdiction alone. The North Sea has an average depth of just 95 meters. That’s not much deeper than the Nord Stream pipes at the location they were attacked.  

    “It actually doesn’t take a particularly sophisticated capability to attack a pipeline in relatively shallow waters,” says Sidharth Kaushal, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in the U.K. A small vessel, “some divers and an [explosive] charge” are all it could take, Kaushal says. 

    The navy chief 

    After the Nord Stream incident in September, suspicion instantly fell on Russia. Moscow has a record of operating in the so-called gray zone — committing hostile acts short of warfare, often covertly.  

    To date, the three investigations looking into the incident have yet to confirm that suspicion. But European governments — and their militaries — are not taking any chances. 

    In the days immediately following the explosions, NATO navy chiefs started calling each other to try to coordinate efforts to protect energy infrastructure, says Rune Andersen, the chief of Norway’s navy, speaking to POLITICO at Haakonsvern naval base, before the KV Bergen’s voyage. 

    Everyone had the same thought, he says. “If that happens in the North Sea, we will have a problem.”  

    Andersen joined the Navy as a young man in 1988, in the last days of the Cold War. Now 54, he is used to the Russian threat overshadowing Norway’s and Europe’s security. 

    “After decades of attempts to integrate or cooperate with Russia, we now have war in Europe. We see that our neighbor is brutal and willing to use military force,” he says grimly. “I worked in the Navy in the ’90s when it was enduring peace and partnership on the agenda. We are back to a situation where our job feels more meaningful — and necessary.” 

    Kenneth Dyb, the skippsjef, or commander of the ship

    However, he points out, his own forces have so far not seen any Russian movements or operations “that are different to what they were before” the Nord Stream attacks. “The job we are doing is precautionary, rather than tailored to any specific threat,” he adds. 

    Even so, those early discussions with NATO allies have now formalized into daily coordination via the Allied Maritime Command headquarters in the U.K., to ensure there are always NATO ships on hand that can act as “first responders” to potential incidents. British, German and French ships have joined their Norwegian counterparts in the monitoring and surveillance effort. 

    It is “by nature challenging” to protect every inch of pipeline, all of the time, Andersen says. 

    The role of the Bergen and ships like it, he adds, is just “one bit of the puzzle.” Simply by their presence at sea, these ships increase the chances of catching would-be saboteurs in the act, and hopefully deter them from trying in the first place.  

    The goal, in other words, is to reduce the size of the “gray zone” — or to “increase the resolution” of the navy’s picture of the activity out on the North Sea, as Andersen puts it. 

    In collaboration with the energy companies and pipeline operators, unmanned underwater vehicles — drones — using cameras and high-resolution sonar have been used, Andersen says, to “map the micro-terrain” around pipelines. These are sensitive enough to spot an explosive charge or other signs of foul play. 

    Equinor, alongside the pipeline operator Gassco, has carried out a “large inspection survey” of its undersea pipeline infrastructure, a company spokesperson says. The survey revealed “no identified signs of malicious activities” but pipeline inspections are ongoing “continuously.” 

    Senior Petty Officer Simen Strand speaks to the crew. “We haven’t had much to fear in the past. We are probably less naïve nowadays,” he says.

    Perhaps understandably, the heightened level of alert has led to the occasional false alarm. A spate of aerial drone sightings near Norwegian energy infrastructure around the time of the Nord Stream attacks last year included a report of a suspicious craft circling above Haakonsvern naval base itself. 

    “After a while, we concluded it was a seagull,” says Andersen, with the shadow of a grin.  

    Europe on alert 

    The navy chief is nonetheless deadly serious about the potential threat. A Nord Stream-style attack in the North Sea is possible. Anderson will not be drawn on the most vulnerable points in the network, saying only that “easy to access” places and “key hubs” are “two things in the back of mind when we think [about] risk.” 

    Throughout Europe, the alert has been raised. This month, NATO warned of a “significant risk” that Russia could target undersea pipelines or internet cables as part of its confrontation with the West. 

    Several countries are increasing patrols and underwater surveillance capabilities. The British Royal Navy accelerated the purchase of two specialist ocean surveillance ships, the first of which will be operational this summer. The EU and NATO have established a new joint task force focusing on critical infrastructure protection, and a “coordination cell” has been established at NATO headquarters in Brussels to improve “engagement with industry and bring key military and civilian stakeholders together” to keep the cables and pipelines secure. 

    Norway — and Europe — are in this struggle for the long haul, Andersen believes.  

    Indeed, even as Europe transitions from fossil fuels to green energy, the North Sea will remain a vital powerhouse of offshore wind energy, with plans for a huge expansion over the next 25 years. Earlier this year, the Netherlands’ intelligence services reported a Russian ship seeking to map wind farm infrastructure in the Dutch sector of the North Sea. “We think the Russians wanted to investigate the possibilities for potential future sabotage,” Jan Swillens, head of the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service tells POLITICO in an emailed statement. “This incident makes clear that these kinds of Russian operations are performed closer than one might think.” 

    At the same time in the Baltic, countries are shoring up security around their infrastructure, at sea and on land. Late last year, Estonia carried out an underwater inspection of the two Estlink power cables and the Baltic Connector gas pipeline linking it to Finland, the Estonian navy says. Lithuania, meanwhile, is paying “special attention” to security around its LNG terminal at Klaipėda and the gas cargoes that arrive there, a defense ministry spokesperson says. 

    Torgeir Standal, left, the KV Bergen’s second in command

    It was in Lithuania that Europe had its first major false alarm since the Nord Stream incident, when a gas pipeline on land exploded on a Friday evening in January. Foul play was briefly considered a possibility in the immediate aftermath but was quickly ruled out. The pipe was 40 years old, and had been subject to a technical fault. 

    The danger posed by Russia to infrastructure throughout Europe should not be underestimated, says Vilmantas Vitkauskas, director of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre and a former NATO intelligence official. 

    “We know their way of thinking, [the way] they send signals or apply pressure,” Vitkauskas says. “We understand Russia quite well, and we are quite worried by what we see — and how vulnerable our infrastructure is in Europe.” 

    The watchers on the water 

    Back aboard the Bergen, life for the sailors carries on as normal. It’s a young crew, with an average age of around 30. Some are conscripts. It’s still compulsory in Norway for 19-year-olds to present themselves for national service, but only around one in four are actually recruited for the mandated 19-month stint.   

    The days are long. Surveillance, maintenance and exercises in search and rescue are all part of the crew’s regular routine. A helicopter from one of the Oseberg oil and gas platforms soars overhead, and the crew are drafted into an exercise winching people on and off the deck of the Bergen in the dead of night, simulating a rescue operation. 

    The ship needs to be ready to respond to an incident should the call come in from naval headquarters that help is required, or a suspicious vessel has been identified in their patch of the North Sea. But in their downtime, the sailors head to the gym on the lower deck, or play FIFA on the X-box in the sparse games room. Three hearty meals a day are served in the galley kitchen. There is even a ship’s band, cheekily named “Dyb Purple” after their commander. Dyb “takes it well,” says Senior Petty Officer Storebø. 

    In the daily whirl of activity, most of the young sailors don’t think of their work in the grand strategic sense of protecting the energy security — the warmth, the light, the industry — of an entire continent. 

    But the context of the Ukraine war — and the precedent set by the Nord Stream attack — has added a note of solemnity just below the surface of the comradeship and bonhomie. 

    “We are probably less naïve nowadays,” says 33-year-old Senior Petty Officer Simen Strand, who has a wife and two children, a boy and a girl, back home in Bergen. “We haven’t had much to fear in the past, there hasn’t been a concrete threat.” 

    Storebø agrees but is characteristically sanguine. “Russia has always been there … I’ve not personally felt any more unease than before.” 

    The next day, Storebø has the night watch, from midnight to four in the morning, as the Bergen travels back to base for a short stop before heading out to sea again.  

    It’s dark up on the bridge, with the glow of the control panel screens the only light inside. Twenty miles away, little lights can be seen on the Norwegian coast. A lighthouse flares to the south, at Slåtterøy, not far from Storebø’s home island of Austevoll. Beneath the waves, unseen, gas flows from the Troll field back to the mainland, where it is processed. From there, it continues its journey south to light the dark of European nights.  

    All is quiet but Storebø can’t afford to lose focus. “Coffee and music help,” he says. “I like the night shifts.”  

    As the officer of the watch, he has to be ready, should the radar, the satellites, or his own eyes see something out of the ordinary — ready to call the captain and raise the alarm. 

    That’s the job, he says. “You always have it in the back of your mind.” 

    Charlie Cooper

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  • NATO on the precipice

    NATO on the precipice

    Press play to listen to this article

    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    WASHINGTON/BRUSSELS — The images tell the story.

    In the packed meeting rooms and hallways of Munich’s Hotel Bayerischer Hof last weekend, back-slapping allies pushed an agenda with the kind of forward-looking determination NATO had long sought to portray but just as often struggled to achieve. They pledged more aid for Ukraine. They revamped plans for their own collective defense.  

    Two days later in Moscow, Vladimir Putin stood alone, rigidly ticking through another speech full of resentment and lonely nationalism, pausing only to allow his audience of grim-faced government functionaries to struggle to their feet in a series of mandatory ovations in a cold, cavernous hall.

    With the war in Ukraine now one year old, and no clear path to peace at hand, a newly unified NATO is on the verge of making a series of seismic decisions beginning this summer to revolutionize how it defends itself while forcing slower members of the alliance into action. 

    The decisions in front of NATO will place the alliance — which protects 1 billion people — on a path to one the most sweeping transformations in its 74-year history. Plans set to be solidified at a summit in Lithuania this summer promise to revamp everything from allies’ annual budgets to new troop deployments to integrating defense industries across Europe.

    The goal: Build an alliance that Putin wouldn’t dare directly challenge.

    Yet the biggest obstacle could be the alliance itself, a lumbering collection of squabbling nations with parochial interests and a bureaucracy that has often promised way more than it has delivered. Now it has to seize the momentum of the past year to cut through red tape and crank up peacetime procurement strategies to meet an unpredictable, and likely increasingly belligerent Russia. 

    It’s “a massive undertaking,” said Benedetta Berti, head of policy planning at the NATO secretary-general’s office. The group has spent “decades of focusing our attention elsewhere,” she said. Terrorism, immigration — all took priority over Russia.

    “It’s really a quite significant historic shift for the alliance,” she said.

    For now, individual nations are making the right noises. But the proof will come later this year when they’re asked to open up their wallets, and defense firms are approached with plans to partner with rivals. 

    To hear alliance leaders and heads of state tell it, they’re ready to do it. 

    “Ukraine has to win this,” Adm. Rob Bauer, the head of NATO’s military committee, said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. “We cannot allow Russia to win, and for a good reason — because the ambitions of Russia are much larger than Ukraine.”

    All eyes on Vilnius

    The big change will come In July, when NATO allies gather in Vilnius, Lithuania, for their big annual summit. 

    Gen. Chris Cavoli will reveal how personnel across the alliance will be called to help on short notice | Henrik Montgomery/TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images

    NATO’s top military leader will lay out a new plan for how the alliance will put more troops and equipment along the eastern front. And Gen. Chris Cavoli, supreme allied commander for Europe, will also reveal how personnel across the alliance will be called to help on short notice.

    The changes will amount to a “reengineering” of how Europe is defended, one senior NATO official said. 

    The plans will be based on geographic regions, with NATO asking countries to take responsibility for different security areas, from space to ground and maritime forces. 

    “Allies will know even more clearly what their jobs will be in the defense of Europe,” the official said. 

    NATO leaders have also pledged to reinforce the alliance’s eastern defenses and make 300,000 troops ready to rush to help allies on short notice, should the need arise. Under the current NATO Response Force, the alliance can make available 40,000 troops in less than 15 days. Under the new force model, 100,000 troops could be activated in up to 10 days, with a further 200,000 ready to go in up to 30 days. 

    But a good plan can only get allies so far. 

    NATO’s aspirations represent a departure from the alliance’s previous focus on short-term crisis management. Essentially, the alliance is “going in the other direction and focusing more on collective security and deterrence and defense,” said a second NATO official, who like the first, requested anonymity to discuss ongoing planning.

    Chief among NATO’s challenges: Getting everyone’s armed forces to cooperate. Countries such as Germany, which has underfunded its military modernization programs for years, will likely struggle to get up to speed. And Sweden and Finland — on the cusp of joining NATO — are working to integrate their forces into the alliance.

    Others simply have to expand their ranks for NATO to meet its stated quotas.

    “NATO needs the ability to add speed, put large formations in the field — much larger than they used to,” said Bastian Giegerich, director of defense and military analysis and the International Institute for Strategic Studies.  

    East vs. West

    An east-west ideological fissure is also simmering within NATO. 

    Countries on the alliance’s eastern front have long been frustrated, at times publicly, with the slower pace of change many in Western Europe and the United States are advocating — even after Russia’s invasion. 

    Joe Biden traveled to Warsaw for a major speech last week that helped alleviate some of the tensions and perceived slights | Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

    “We started to change and for western partners, it’s been kind of a delay,” Polish Armed Forces Gen. Rajmund Andrzejczak said during a visit to Washington this month. 

    Those concerns on the eastern front are being heard, tentatively. 

    Last summer, NATO branded Russia as its most direct threat — a significant shift from post-Cold War efforts to build a partnership with Moscow. U.S. President Joe Biden has also conducted his own charm offensive, traveling to Warsaw for a major speech last week that helped alleviate some of the tensions and perceived slights. 

    Still, NATO’s eastern front, which is within striking distance of Russia, is imploring its western neighbors to move faster to help fill in the gaps along the alliance’s edges and to buttress reinforcement plans.

    It is important to “fix the slots — which countries are going to deliver which units,” said Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu, adding that he hopes the U.S. “will take a significant part.” 

    Officials and experts agree that these changes are needed for the long haul. 

    “If Ukraine manages to win, then Ukraine and Europe and NATO are going to have a very disgruntled Russia on its doorstep, rearming, mobilizing, ready to go again,” said Sean Monaghan, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

    “If Ukraine loses and Russia wins,” he noted, the West would have “an emboldened Russia on our doorstep — so either way, NATO has a big Russia problem.” 

    Wakeup call from Russia

    The rush across the Continent to rearm as weapons and equipment flows from long-dormant stockpiles into Ukraine has been as sudden as the invasion itself. 

    After years of flat defense budgets and Soviet-era equipment lingering in the motor pools across the eastern front, calls for more money and more Western equipment threaten to overwhelm defense firms without the capacity to fill those orders in the near term. That could create a readiness crisis in ammunition, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and anti-armor weapons. 

    A damaged Russian tank near Kyiv on February 14, 2023 | Sergei Dolzhenko/EPA-EFE

    NATO actually recognized this problem a decade ago but lacked the ability to do much about it. The first attempt to nudge member states into shaking off the post-Cold War doldrums started slowly in the years before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year. 

    After Moscow took Crimea and parts of the Donbas in 2014, the alliance signed the “Wales pledge” to spend 2 percent of economic output on defense by 2024.

    The vast majority of countries politely ignored the vow, giving then-President Donald Trump a major talking point as he demanded Europe step up and stop relying on Washington to provide a security umbrella.

    But nothing focuses attention like danger, and the sight of Russian tanks rumbling toward Kyiv as Putin ranted about Western depravity and Russian destiny jolted Europe into action. One year on, the bills from those early promises to do more are coming due.

    “We are in this for the long haul” in Ukraine, said Bauer, the head of NATO’s Military Committee, a body comprising allies’ uniformed defense chiefs. But sustaining the pipeline funneling weapons and ammunition to Ukraine will take not only the will of individual governments but also a deep collaboration between the defense industries in Europe and North America. Those commitments are still a work in progress.

    Part of that effort, Bauer said, is working to get countries to collaborate on building equipment that partners can use. It’s a job he thinks the European Union countries are well-suited to lead. 

    That’s a touchy subject for the EU, a self-proclaimed peace project that by definition can’t use its budget to buy weapons. But it can serve as a convener. And it agreed to do just that last week, pledging with NATO and Ukraine to jointly establish a more effective arms procurement system for Kyiv.

    Talk, of course, is one thing. Traditionally NATO and the EU have been great at promising change, and forming committees and working groups to make that change, only to watch it get bogged down in domestic politics and big alliance in-fighting. And many countries have long fretted about the EU encroaching on NATO’s military turf.

    But this time, there is a sense that things have to move, that western countries can’t let Putin win his big bet — that history would repeat itself, and that Europe and the U.S. would be frozen by an inability to agree.

    “People need to be aware that this is a long fight. They also need to be brutally aware that this is a war,” the second NATO official said. “This is not a crisis. This is not some small incident somewhere that can be managed. This is an all-out war. And it’s treated that way now by politicians all across Europe and across the alliance, and that’s absolutely appropriate.”

    Paul McLeary and Lili Bayer also contributed reporting from Munich.

    Paul McLeary and Lili Bayer

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  • Tritan Software Expands With New Office in Cyprus

    Tritan Software Expands With New Office in Cyprus

    Press Release


    Aug 1, 2022

    Tritan Software, the leading provider of maritime health and safety software platforms, has officially opened a new office location in Limassol, Cyprus, to further expand its operations within the commercial maritime segment. 

    The new office will serve as a primary service and business development location for the shipping industry and the greater Mediterranean region. “Given its strategic location and presence to some of the world’s most prominent ship management companies, it was a natural choice to be closer to our clients and provide the best support for their needs,” stated Nedko Panayotov, Head of Strategic Partnerships. 

    The office is located at the recently constructed new port building directly in front of the Port of Limassol with the Tritan logo prominently on display. Tritan Software has expanded rapidly into the commercial segment and is currently servicing some of the industry’s largest ship management companies, along with over 97% of the cruise industry. “We’re bringing much-needed innovation and new services into a segment of the industry that has been largely underserved for many years,” stated Andrew L. Carricarte, President and CEO. “We’re genuinely excited to grow our success with more vessel operators and to improve the safety and wellbeing of seafarers worldwide.” 

    About Tritan Software

    Tritan Software is the industry’s #1 provider of Health and Safety software and services currently supporting more than 97% of cruise lines and some of the world’s largest ship management companies. Tritan’s extensive experience and specialized product suites specifically address the unique needs of the industry while achieving the highest value for our Clients with a proven return on investment. Our focus on technology innovation and 24/7 service excellence has been the catalyst for our global success.

    To learn more about Tritan Software, please visit www.tritansoft.com

    Contact: Mr. Nedko Panayotov, Ext. 8102

    Phone: +1-877-299-1000

    Email: info@tritansoft.com

    Source: Tritan Software Corporation

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  • Assuring the Quality of Maritime Learning: Seably is the First Training Platform Provider Certified by DNV

    Assuring the Quality of Maritime Learning: Seably is the First Training Platform Provider Certified by DNV

    Seably the Swedish maritime training platform has been awarded a new DNV competence certification for its digital services.

    Press Release


    May 24, 2022

    The DNV SeaSkill™ standard ST-0595 is the first of its kind and addresses an emerging trend in the maritime training market: the emergence of training platform providers.

    The standard’s certification framework aims to ensure the quality of the training platforms, as well as their learning products and operation. It was developed in cooperation with Seably as a pilot customer.

    Rapid digitalization, a move to offer more learning experiences on board and two years of operating during a global pandemic have transformed the maritime training market. Greater digital portfolios and local providers seeking access to learners from around the world have led to the emergence of digital training platforms. They offer local providers the opportunity to elevate their courses beyond their regional market and gain access to customers worldwide.

    Andrea Lodolo, CEO of Seably, says: “I am delighted that we have been able to work with DNV on the ST-0595 standard, which is open and will be available for any organisation in the maritime sector to achieve. It was of great importance to us that we pioneered this for the benefit of the whole sector and not just the select few. There has been tremendous progress in technology and learning skills, and Seably has been at the forefront, driving innovation through our unique marketplace. This standard recognises this progress while setting the bar to maintain the quality and robustness that seafarers rightly expect from their training and development. We look forward to seeing many more companies attain the standard in the future.”

    “Making learning experiences widely accessible to seafarers is a very positive development for an industry that is becoming increasingly demanding as it heads into a digitalized, decarbonized future. However, while we welcome this trend, it is equally important to ensure that training platform providers have a robust management system in place which accounts for the challenges of their unique operational environment,” says Ulrich Bernhardt, Head of Competence & Learning and SeaSkill™ at DNV.

    He added: “This is why we were so pleased to work with Seably as a pilot customer to develop the DNV SeaSkill™ certification standard ST-0595. It defines the necessary criteria for digital training platforms, for example, including requirements for how to ensure the quality of the training organisations which use the platform as well as their products and covers information security.”

    In addition, DNV’s certification criteria also include other service areas that the training platform may offer to their own customers. This covers services such as provision of training simulators, assessments, and the certification of learners on behalf of the onboarded training organisations, as well as content development and learning consultancy.
    Press Contact: Sue Terpilowski sue@imageline.co.uk +44 207 689 9009

    Source: Seably

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  • SPI Cruise Group Issues Initial Report on South Padre Island’s Suitability as a Port of Call

    SPI Cruise Group Issues Initial Report on South Padre Island’s Suitability as a Port of Call

    Analysis finds SPI well-positioned to be the first new U.S. port of call in a half-century

    SPI Cruise Group, a consortium of cruise industry experts retained by South Padre Island, Texas, to evaluate the popular vacation destination’s suitability to become a cruise port of call, has issued its initial findings. Based on a site inspection in December 2017, the group has completed a matrix analysis to evaluate SPI’s fitness on maritime viability, uniqueness and branding, consumer demand and revenue possibilities.

    Maritime Viability

    An initial desktop study of available meteorological and oceanographic data indicated safe harbor conditions protected from predominant wind and waves due to the location on the eastern shore of the bayside of the world’s largest barrier island. Three potential berthing locations were identified, each requiring a different level of dredging.

    Assessment of potential landside cruise guest reception facilities led to the conclusion that they should be limited and temporary, with minimal environmental impact. Considering the plans for the redevelopment of Isla Blanca Park, cruise guest services structures can be limited in scope (and cost). The group ascertained that the greater park area on the south end of the island is one of the best natural cruise ship arrival zones in the Caribbean, as almost no other berth in the region is immediately adjacent to a natural white sand beach.

    The preferred berthing site would lend itself to several pier configurations with relatively small environmental footprints and the least amount of dredging required. A Phase 1 stationary pier could be expanded later with a floating structure or additional gangway elements connecting to shore.

    Uniqueness and Branding

    The group has identified three predominant brand destination themes that would serve South Padre Island well in attracting cruise industry attention:

    ·      Tropical Adventures — National Geographic listed South Padre Island among the world’s top 13 beaches for kiteboarding, and Canadian Traveller says it’s a great place to learn to surf or paddleboard. With 34 miles of enticing beach, SPI offers a wealth of watersports and pastimes that are well-suited to today’s more active cruise guests. Whether it’s deep-sea fishing or a dolphin-watching tour, there is an array of tropical adventures — from horseback riding on the beach to scuba diving, jet skiing, and deep-sea fishing —  all available within 4 to 5 miles of the ship.

    ·      Eco-Tourism — As the world’s largest barrier island, SPI is a world-class destination in terms of biodiversity. With existing attractions such as the South Padre Island Birding and Nature Center, Sea Turtle Inc. or dolphin-watching tours, there are plenty of sustainable and eco-friendly facilities and activities to entice cruise passengers. And for those interested in “voluntourism,” there are even organized dune-planting outings. Given the emphasis on sustainability and eco-awareness among travelers, this theme would provide a dynamic mix of attractions and messaging.

    ·      Historical Destination — Padre Island has a long and rich history dating from the early 16th century and has been owned by Spain, Mexico, the Republic of Texas and, most recently, the United States. Heritage tours could be created starting with the Native American story through the colonial era, including shipwreck maps and trips to the 1830s-era lighthouse at Port Isabel.

    Consumer Demand

    South Padre Island receives 4.5 million visitors per year, so there already is significant consumer demand for the product as a vacation destination.

    While consumers in Texas and the lower Midwest have long known about the charm of South Padre Island, consumer interest in the destination is actually national in scope. The group considered SPI’s “Distribution of Interest” map of the U.S. and found that requests for information about SPI through online and magazine advertising have come in from across the entire country, with significant concentrations in the Northeast, the Great Lakes region, California and even Florida.

    Overlaying that map with a map of cruise guest feeder markets showed significant overlap, indicating that interest in SPI as a vacation destination could relatively easily be developed into interest in the island as a cruise port of call.

    Revenue Possibilities

    A major attractant for cruise lines is the availability of shore excursion opportunities in proximity to a port of call. In this respect, SPI has a diversified and mature tourism infrastructure with a variety of potential shore tours well within distances that could be accommodated on a daylong ship call.

    SPI Cruise Group identified several one-of-a-kind attractions:

    ·      A white sand beach within walking distance of the ship. 

    ·      Three exciting and different day tours to world-class, unusual and attractive venues: King Ranch, the Gladys Porter Zoo and Nuevo Progreso, Mexico. 

    ·      A Schlitterbahn waterpark within walking distance of the ship.

    ·      Two nationally recognized ecological attractions, the SPI Birding & Nature Center and Sea Turtle Inc.

    After studying their findings, SPI Cruise Group concluded that South Padre Island has all the attributes necessary to support cruise tourism as a port of call.

    “There hasn’t been a new U.S. cruise port of call since Key West hosted its first cruise ship in 1969, and there’s a reason for that,” said Jay Lewis, managing director of MarketScope Global and project leader for the SPI Cruise group. “It takes a very specific combination of attributes for a place to qualify as a cruise port of call. Like Key West, South Padre Island has history, culture, an inviting climate and both waterside and landside attractions in a compact package as well as a safe, navigable harbor and a berthing location just steps from the beach. I can’t think of another American destination that offers a similar combination.”

    # # #

    About South Padre Island

    With 34 miles of white sand and clear emerald water, South Padre Island is Texas’ only tropical island paradise. Calm weather and water and more than 300 days of sunshine make South Padre Island a year-round destination offering a variety of nature tourism attractions, watersports and activities for the entire family. www.sopadre.com

    About SPI Cruise Group

    The SPI Cruise Group consultancy is composed of experts in marketing, port and destination development, cruise, maritime and hotel operations and communications from MarketScope Global, IDEA, Cruise and Port Advisors, and NewmanPR. The group was formed to develop a strategic vision and action plan to turn South Padre Island into the western Caribbean’s newest cruise ship port of call.

    MEDIA CONTACT

    Buck Banks
    NewmanPR
    305-461-3300
    buck@newmanpr.com

    Source: SPI Cruise Group

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