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Tag: Macy's Inc

  • Companies — profitable or not — make 2024 the year of cost cuts

    Companies — profitable or not — make 2024 the year of cost cuts

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    Mathisworks | Digitalvision Vectors | Getty Images

    Corporate America has a message for Wall Street: It’s serious about cutting costs this year.

    From toy and cosmetics makers to office software sellers, executives across sectors have announced layoffs and other plans to slash expenses — even at some companies that are turning a profit. Barbie maker Mattel, PayPal, Cisco, Nike, Estée Lauder and Levi Strauss are just a few of the firms that have cut jobs in recent weeks.

    Department store retailer Macy’s said it will close five of its namesake department stores and cut more than 2,300 jobs. JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines have offered staff buyouts, while United Airlines cut first-class meals on some of its shortest flights.

    As consumers watch their wallets, companies have felt pressure from investors to do the same. Executives have sought to show shareholders that they’re adjusting to consumer demand as it returns to typical patterns or even softens, as well as aggressively countering higher expenses.

    Airlines, automakers, media companies and package giant UPS are all digesting new labor contracts that gave raises to tens of thousands of workers and drove costs higher.

    Companies in years past could get away with passing on higher costs to customers who were willing to splurge on everything from new appliances to beach vacations. But businesses’ pricing power has waned, so executives are looking for other ways to manage the budget — or squeeze out more profits, said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY.

    “You are in an environment where cost fatigue is very much part of the equation for consumers and business leaders,” Daco said. “The cost of most everything is much higher than it was before the pandemic, whether it’s goods, inputs, equipment, labor, even interest rates.”

    There are some exceptions to the recent cost-cutting wave: Walmart, for example, said last month that it would build or convert more than 150 stores over the next five years, along with a more than $9 billion investment to modernize many of its current stores.

    And some companies, such as banks, already made deep cuts. Five of the largest banks, including Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, together eliminated more than 20,000 jobs in 2023. Now, they’re awaiting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that would free up cash for pent-up mergers and acquisitions.

    But cost reductions unveiled in even just the first few weeks of the year amount to tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars. In January, U.S. companies announced 82,307 job cuts, more than double the number in December, while still down 20% from a year ago, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas.

    And the tightening of months prior is already showing up in financial reports.

    So far this earnings season, results have indicated that companies have focused on driving profits higher without the tailwind of big price increases and sales growth.

    As of mid-February, more than three-quarters of the S&P 500 had reported fourth-quarter results, with far more earnings beats than revenue beats. The quarter’s earnings, measured by a composite of S&P 500 companies, are on pace to rise nearly 10%. Revenues, however, are up a more modest 3.4%.

    Layoffs, flight cuts and store closures

    While companies’ drive for higher profits isn’t new, they have made bolstering the bottom line a priority this year.

    Downsizing has rippled across the tech industry, as companies followed the lead of Meta’s 2023 cuts, which many analysts credited with helping the social media giant rebound from a rough 2022. CEO Mark Zuckerberg had dubbed 2023 the “year of efficiency” for the parent of Facebook and Instagram, as it slashed the size of its workforce and vowed to carry forward its leaner approach.

    In recent weeks, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Cisco, among others, have announced staffing reductions.

    And the layoffs haven’t been contained to tech. UPS said it was axing 12,000 jobs, saving the company $1 billion, CEO Carol Tome said late last month, citing softer demand. Many of the largest retail, media and entertainment companies have also announced workforce reductions, in addition to other cuts.

    Warner Bros. Discovery has slashed content spending and headcount as part of $4 billion in total cost savings from the merger of Discovery and WarnerMedia. Disney initially promised $5.5 billion in cost reductions in 2023, fueled by 7,000 layoffs. The company has since increased its savings promise to $7.5 billion, and executives suggested in its Feb. 7 quarterly earnings report that it may exceed that target.

    Last week, Paramount Global announced hundreds of layoffs in an effort to “operate as a leaner company and spend less,” according to CEO Bob Bakish. Comcast’s NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC, has also recently eliminated jobs.

    JetBlue Airways, which hasn’t posted an annual profit since before the pandemic, is deferring about $2.5 billion in capital expenditures on new Airbus planes to the end of the decade, culling unprofitable routes and redeploying aircraft in addition to the worker buyouts.

    Delta Air Lines, which is profitable, in November said it was cutting some office jobs, calling it a “small adjustment.”

    Some cuts are even making their way to the front of the cabin. United Airlines, which also posted a profit in 2023, at the start of this year said it would serve first-class meals only on flights more than 900 miles, up from 800 miles previously. “On flights that are 301 to 900 miles, United First customers can expect an offering from the premium snack basket,” according to an internal post.

    Several of the country’s largest automakers, such as General Motors and Ford Motor, have lowered spending by billions of dollars through reduced or delayed investments on all-electric vehicles. The U.S.-based companies as well as others, such as Netherlands-based Stellantis, have recently reduced headcount and payroll through voluntary buyouts or layoffs.

    Even Chipotle, which reported more foot traffic and sales at its restaurants in the most recently reported quarter, is chasing higher productivity by testing an avocado-scooping robot called the Autocado that shortens the time it takes to make guacamole. It’s also testing another robot that can put together burrito bowls and salads. The robots, if expanded to other stores, could help cut costs by minimizing food waste or reducing the number of workers needed for those tasks.

    Shifting patterns

    Industry experts have chalked up some recent cuts to companies catching their breath — and taking a hard look at how they operate — after an unusual four-year stretch caused by the pandemic and its fallout.

    EY’s Daco said the past few years have been marked by a mismatch in supply and demand when it comes to goods, services and even workers.

    Customers went on shopping sprees, fueled by government stimulus and less experience-related spending. Airlines saw demand disappear and then skyrocket. Companies furloughed workers in the early pandemic and then struggled to fill jobs.

    He said he expects companies this year to “search for an equilibrium.”

    “You’re seeing a rebalancing happening in the labor markets, in the capital markets,” he said. “And that rebalancing is still going to play out and gradually lead to a more sustainable environment of lower inflation and lower interest rates, and perhaps a little bit slower growth.”

    The auto industry, for example, faced a supply issue during much of the Covid pandemic but is now facing a potential demand problem. Inventories of new vehicles are rising — surpassing 2.5 million units and 71 days’ supply toward the end of 2023, up 57% year over year, according to Cox Automotive — forcing automakers to extend more discounts in an effort to move cars and trucks off dealer lots.

    Automakers have also been contending with slower-than-expected adoption of EVs.

    David Silverman, a retail analyst at Fitch Ratings, said companies are “feeling a bit heavy as sales growth moderates and maybe even declines.”

    Cost cuts at UPS, Hasbro and Levi all followed sales declines in the most recent fiscal quarter. Macy’s, which reports earnings later this month, has said it expects same-store sales to drop, and there’s early evidence that may come to bear: Consumers pulled back on spending in January, with retail sales falling 0.8%, more than economists expected, according to the latest federal data.

    Most major retailers, including Walmart, Target and Home Depot, will report earnings in the coming weeks.

    Credit ratings agency Fitch said it doesn’t expect the U.S. economy to tip into recession, but it does anticipate a continued pullback in discretionary spending.

    “Part of companies’ decision to lower their expense structure is in line with their views that 2024 may not be a fantastic year from a top-line-growth standpoint,” Silverman said.

    Plus, he added, companies have had to find cash to fund investments in newer technology such as infrastructure that supports e-commerce, a resilient supply chain or investments in artificial intelligence.

    Forward momentum

    Companies may have another reason to cut costs now, too. As they see other companies shrinking the size of their workforces or budgets, there’s safety in numbers.

    Or as Silverman noted, “layoffs beget layoffs.”

    “As companies have started to announce them it becomes normalized,” he said. “There’s less of a stigma.”

    Even with rolling layoffs, the labor market remains strong, which may help explain why Wall Street has by and large rewarded those companies that have found areas to save and returned profits to shareholders.

    Shares of Meta, for example, almost tripled in price in 2023 in that “year of efficiency,” making the stock the second-best gainer in the S&P 500, behind only Nvidia. After laying off more than 20,000 workers in 2023, Meta on Feb. 2 announced its first-ever dividend and said it expanded its share buyback authorization by $50 billion.

    UPS, fresh from job cuts, said it would raise its quarterly dividend by a penny.

    Overall, dividends paid by companies in the S&P 500 rose 5.05% last year, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, and he estimated they will likely increase nearly 5.3% this year.

    — CNBC’s Michael Wayland, Alex Sherman, Robert Hum, Amelia Lucas and Jonathan Vanian contributed to this story.

    Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.

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  • Ulta Beauty shares pop as sales climb 6%

    Ulta Beauty shares pop as sales climb 6%

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    Shoppers arrive at an Ulta Beauty store in Las Vegas, Nevada, US, on Monday, May 22, 2023. Ulta Beauty Inc. is scheduled to release earnings figures on May 25.

    Bridget Bennett | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Shares of Ulta Beauty rose in after-hours trading on Thursday, as the company said its third-quarter sales rose while shoppers showed once again they’re willing to spend on makeup, face masks and more even when the budget is tight.

    The specialty beauty retailer raised the bottom end of its range for full-year sales and earning expectations. It said it expects net sales for the fiscal year to be between $11.10 billion and $11.15 billion, and comparable sales to range from 5.0% to 5.5%. It said adjusted earnings per share for the year will range from $25.20 to $25.60

    In a news release, CEO Dave Kimbell said the retailer saw healthy sales trends and added customers to its loyalty program. He said it’s ready for the holidays and believes “the outlook for the Beauty category is bright.”

    Here’s what Ulta reported for the three-month period that ended Oct. 28:

    • Earnings per share: $5.07
    • Revenue: $2.49 billion

    It was not immediately clear if those numbers were comparable to consensus estimates from LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv.

    The company’s shares rose as much as 10% in extended trading.

    Ulta also announced a leadership change on Thursday. Chief Financial Officer Scott Settersten is retiring in April after nearly two decades at the beauty retailer. The company said he will be replaced by Paula Oyibo, Ulta’s senior vice president of finance.

    In the fiscal third quarter, net income rose to $249.5 million, or $5.07 per share, from $274.6 million, or $5.34 per share, in the year-ago period. Revenue increased from $2.34 billion in the year-ago period.

    Comparable sales, a metric that tracks Ulta stores open at least 14 months along with online sales, increased 4.5% year over year.

    During the quarter, customers made more trips to Ulta’s stores and website, but spent slightly less. Transactions went up by nearly 6% and average ticket declined by 1.4% compared with the year-ago period.

    Beauty has been one of the hottest categories for retailers over the past year. Even as consumers pull back on other types of discretionary purchases, they have continued to spend on makeup, face masks, fragrances and more.

    That’s inspired retailers, including Macy’s, Target and Kohl’s to lean into the category by adding new brands, products and square footage. Target, for example, has a growing number of Ulta shops in its stores.

    As of Thursday’s close, Ulta shares had fallen about 9% so far this year. That compares to the S&P 500, which is up about 19% year to date.

    Shares of the company closed at $425.99 on Thursday, bringing the company’s market value to about $20.97 billion.

    This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Sonos, Cisco Systems, Alibaba, Walmart and more

    Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Sonos, Cisco Systems, Alibaba, Walmart and more

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  • Nike misses revenue expectations for the first time in two years, beats on earnings and gross margin

    Nike misses revenue expectations for the first time in two years, beats on earnings and gross margin

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    A shopper leaves a Nike store along the Magnificent Mile shopping district with a purchase in Chicago, Dec. 21, 2022.

    Scott Olson | Getty Images

    Nike reported revenue Thursday that fell short of Wall Street’s revenue expectations for the first time in two years, but it beat on earnings and gross margin estimates.

    Here’s how the sneaker giant performed during its fiscal first quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

    • Earnings per share: 94 cents vs. 75 cents expected
    • Revenue: $12.94 billion vs. $12.98 billion expected

    The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended August 31 was $1.45 billion, or 94 cents per share, compared with $1.47 billion, or 93 cents per share, a year earlier.

    Sales rose to $12.94 billion, up about 2% from $12.69 billion a year earlier.

    Nike shares rose by about 1% in extended trading Thursday.

    Investors have been laser focused on Nike’s recovery in China, its relationship with its wholesale partners and how the resumption of student loan payments will impact sales. 

    They’re also keen to see Nike’s margins recover after bloated inventories, high promotions and supply chain woes contributed to lower profits over the last few quarters. 

    During the quarter, Nike’s gross margin fell about 1 percentage point to 44.2%, but it was higher than the 43.7% analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount.

    Sales in China grew by 5% compared to the year-ago period to $1.74 billion, which fell short of the $1.84 billion analysts had expected, according to StreetAccount.

    During the previous quarter ended May 31, Nike saw China sales jump 16% compared to the year-ago period. But the numbers were against easy comparisons because the region was still under Covid-related lockdown orders during the prior year. 

    While Nike remains bullish on China, the region’s economic recovery has so far been a mixed bag. Following a sluggish July, retail sales picked up during the month of August to rise 4.6% compared to the prior year, beating expectations of a 3% growth forecast by Reuters. 

    When it comes to its wholesale revenues, Nike’s relationship with those partners have been rocky. As the company has pivoted to a direct-to-consumer model, it has focused on driving sales online and in its stores at the expense of its wholesale accounts. 

    However, as Nike grappled with excess inventories throughout 2023, it relied on those partners to move through that merchandise. It has now restored its relationship with both Macy’s and DSW – accounts that it previously cut in favor of its DTC strategy. 

    Some analysts expected Nike’s wholesale revenue to be sluggish during the quarter because excess inventories have been a problem throughout the retail industry – and some wholesalers are being more particular in what they order to avoid another backlog. 

    Wholesale revenue during the quarter was flat compared to the year-ago period at $7 billion.

    Amid decades-high inflation rates, consumers have been pulling back on apparel and footwear. With the resumption of student loan payments looming ahead, some analysts expect those sectors to take an even greater hit. 

    Jefferies conducted a survey on U.S. consumer spending and found 54% of respondents plan to spend less on apparel and accessories. Meanwhile, 46% plan to spend less on footwear, which doesn’t bode well for Nike. 

    It may still be too early to gauge the impact of student loan payments on Nike. Its first quarter ended in late August, and payments aren’t set to resume until October.

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  • Four reasons why the consumer is so confusing — and what that may mean for retail earnings

    Four reasons why the consumer is so confusing — and what that may mean for retail earnings

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    People walk through a nearly empty shopping mall in Waterbury, Connecticut.

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    High food prices. Low unemployment. And eye-popping spending on concert tickets and European trips.

    Retailers are chasing shoppers as they navigate contradictory dynamics like cooling inflation, rising interest rates and pandemic-induced jolts to the way people live, work and shop.

    That has made it tricky to predict consumer spending.

    “We’ve been dealing with massive imbalances in the economy and big shifts in spending patterns, investment patterns, supply disruptions, all of that stuff. And then the reversal of all of those shocks,” said Aditya Bhave, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America. “So that’s been the big challenge.”

    The swirl of confusing trends tees up a closely watched retail earnings season that could offer more clarity about consumers and the economy. Home Depot, Target and Walmart will kick it off this week, followed by other major retailers like Lowe’s, Best Buy and Macy’s.

    The reports come as opinions about the economy have grown more optimistic. Economists at Bank of America and JPMorgan recently scrapped calls for a recession this year. Wall Street investors have rallied behind calls for a “soft landing,” or a successful effort by the Federal Reserve to slow down the economy and higher prices by raising rates — but without tipping the country into a sharp economic downturn.

    Yet concerns linger. Andrew Garthwaite, global equity strategist at Credit Suisse, predicted in a note to clients last week that the U.S. economy will head into a recession next year and drag down stocks.

    As the biggest U.S. retailers gear up to report earnings, here are four reasons why consumer spending and those companies’ sales have become harder to predict:

    Inflation is cooling, but necessities are still pricey

    Americans got some good news recently: prices aren’t going up as much as they used to be. That trend may make shoppers go to stores for more wants rather than needs.

    The consumer price index, which tracks the prices consumers pay for a key basket of goods and services, rose 3.2% in July compared with a year ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. That’s a much more modest increase than the 40-year inflation highs that consumers dealt with about a year ago.

    Some brands have even spoken about cutting prices. For example, denim maker Levi Strauss‘ CEO, Chip Bergh, said in a CNBC interview last month that the company will reduce the cost of about a half dozen items, including 502 and 512 jeans, by $10. More price-sensitive shoppers typically buy those items, he said.

    Yet Americans are still spending more on just about everything, even as wages start to rise at a higher rate than prices. Those more expensive items include necessities like groceries, housing and cars. For example, prices for food at home have shot up 25% compared with before the pandemic in January 2019, according to an analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor data.

    Even Levi’s reflects that. The jeans that it plans to price lower will be sold at $69.50 after the reduction — more than the $59.50 they went for pre-pandemic.

    Questions about cooling inflation and price changes, and how they will affect consumer spending, will likely come up during the analyst question-and-answer session on every retailer’s earnings call, said Michael Baker, a retail analyst at D.A. Davidson. Slower inflation, while good for consumers, will make retailers’ sales numbers look weaker in the coming quarters, even if a company sells the same number of units.

    The silver lining? If prices rise by smaller amounts or even fall, consumers may spend more freely. Target, Walmart and Macy’s have spoken for the past few quarters about customers who have skipped big-ticket purchases, such as clothing and electronics, as they spend more on necessities.

    Consumers could decide to splurge again just in time for the crucial holiday season, Baker said.

    Credit card balances have shot up, but so have wages

    Many consumers may have pinched pennies — but shoppers are still racking up some big bills.

    Americans’ credit card balances topped $1 trillion for the first time ever, according to new data released last week by the New York Federal Reserve. That raises fresh questions about whether consumers can afford to keep up their spending habits at retailers’ stores and websites — or will have to cut back.

    High debt could get people into trouble, if they can’t afford to pay down their balances and rack up interest charges each month. The average interest rate for U.S. credit cards has spiked to nearly 21%, according to the Federal Reserve Board. That’s a more than 6 percentage point jump in the past 18 months, driven by the rate hikes the Fed has used to tame inflation.

    On top of credit card balances, millions of Americans will resume student loan payments this fall. Those installments were frozen for more than three years because of the pandemic.

    Bhave, the Bank of America economist, said there’s no need to panic. Americans have bigger bills because inflation has driven up prices. But many people also make more money than they used to.

    Thanks to a tight labor market, Americans’ wages have risen significantly over the past two years. As inflation cools, the growth of average hourly earnings has begun to outpace the rise in the consumer price index.

    People may grumble a lot about higher prices, but they still have jobs, Baker said. He called low unemployment “the big offset that’s helped consumer spending hang in.”

    Spending on experiences is up, but it may spark new purchases of goods

    From splashing out on Taylor Swift concert tickets to taking two-week trips to Italy, Americans are shelling out on experiences after years cooped up at home.

    Just ask the airlines.

    But what does that mean for specific retailers? U.S. consumers are now spending more of their personal income on services and less on goods — a reversal of the trends during the Covid pandemic.

    Yet retail sales, while decelerating, have been stronger than some feared.

    “There’s no denying that sales are slowing, which in and of itself one might think is not great, but I actually think it’s pretty healthy,” D.A. Davidson’s Baker said. “Nothing seems to be slowing such that it’s falling off the table.”

    He said softening retail sales could signal the U.S. is on track to avoid a recession because it may stop the Fed from raising interest rates further. Ultimately, that would be good for both retailers and consumers, he said.

    Nikki Baird, vice president of strategy at retail-focused software company Aptos, said she’s been surprised by consumers’ resilience. Even as Americans juggle expenses like dining out and going on vacation, they are still shopping.

    “I thought with all of the revenge travel that’s been happening, that would impact consumer spending on goods,” she said. “But I guess they were [in a] ‘If I’m gonna go on that cruise, I need a new dress’ kind of mentality.”

    The pandemic shocked buying patterns, but more big-ticket purchases could be coming

    A new iPhone, a trendy outfit, or a broken dishwasher.

    Retailers often get a bump when seasons change, new products debut and old items break. Yet the pandemic disrupted the typical cadence of purchases – and is still messing with retailers’ sales patterns.

    For example, many Americans bought pricier and longer-lasting items like kitchen appliances, furniture and laptops when they had stimulus dollars in their bank accounts and faced long stays at home. Now, consumers may be closer to refreshing pricier items bought during the pandemic, and it could be a boon for many major retailers.

    Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said in late May that she anticipates lower demand this year for the company’s big-ticket electronics. But she is hopeful the replacement cycle will pick up again next year.

    In the nearer term, two seasonal factors could help. Retailers, including Walmart and Target, may get a bump from early back-to-school spending – especially from college students getting headboards, coffeemakers and more. Home Depot and Lowe’s just got through the springtime, the holiday season of home improvement when homeowners spruce up yards and contractors take advantage of better weather.

    The ripple effects of the pandemic will still affect retailers’ outlooks for the rest of the year. The government stimulus dollars that served as a lifeline for many and fueled discretionary purchases for others have dwindled. The personal savings rate in the U.S. is less than half what it was before Covid, after Americans socked away money early in the pandemic and then felt more financially secure because of a tight labor market.

    The pause on student loan payments likely supported higher levels of discretionary spending for the last three years, too, said Baird of Aptos. Since those payments resume this fall, that could factor into retailers’ forecasts for the back half of the year.

    — CNBC’s Leslie Josephs, Jeff Cox and Gabrielle Fonrouge contributed to this report.

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  • Nike beats sales expectations, misses on earnings as margins drop

    Nike beats sales expectations, misses on earnings as margins drop

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    A customer enters a Nike store along the Magnificent Mile shopping district on December 21, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. 

    Scott Olson | Getty Images

    Nike reported mixed fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, as lower margins weighed on profits.

    Here’s how the sneaker giant performed during the quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:

    • Earnings per share: 66 cents vs. 67 cents expected
    • Revenue: $12.83 billion vs. $12.59 billion expected

    The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended May 31 was $1.03 billion, or 66 cents per share, compared with $1.44 billion, or 90 cents a share, a year earlier. 

    Sales rose to $12.83 billion, up about 5% from $12.23 billion a year earlier.

    Investors have been eager to see if Nike managed to improve its bloated inventory levels, which have weighed on its margins. 

    Nike’s margins fell again this quarter, this time by 1.4 percentage points to 43.6%. The company attributed the drop to higher product input costs, elevated freight and logistics costs, an uptick in promotions and unfavorable currency exchange rates.

    Other retailers that reported earnings recently noted freight and logistics costs had gone done for them and proved to be a boon for their margins.

    Inventories came in at $8.5 billion, flat compared with the prior-year period.

    In March, executives said on a call with analysts they were “increasingly confident” the company would be able to exit the fiscal year with healthy inventory levels. They noted sales momentum could lead to “even leaner inventory” than anticipated. 

    Nike has been relying on its wholesale partners to reduce inventory levels. The push boosted its wholesale revenue over the past few quarters, but didn’t help its margins much.

    The company said in March that it expects revenue from that segment to moderate moving forward. Still, Nike recently restored some of the wholesale relationships that it cut when it first began focusing on its direct-to-consumer strategy in 2020.

    Both DSW and Macy’s will start selling a range of Nike merchandise again in October, the retailers both announced in June. 

    Macy’s hasn’t received a shipment from Nike since December 2021, but will now resume selling its apparel, including plus size women’s, big and tall men’s, kid’s, bags and other gear, the department store told analysts during an earnings call. Nike’s more premium offerings appear to be off the table for sale at Macy’s.

    The decision to bring Macy’s and DSW back under the Nike fold has left some investors wondering if the company is moving away from its direct-to-consumer strategy. 

    Investors have also been curious to see how sales have rebounded in China following Covid lockdowns. During Nike’s holiday quarter, China sales came in below estimates. The country overall has since seen an uneven path of economic recovery.

    In April, retail sales in China rose 18.4% but came in lower than economists’ forecast of 21%.

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  • Cramer: This is my game plan for the week ahead after Friday’s surprise rally

    Cramer: This is my game plan for the week ahead after Friday’s surprise rally

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    US President Joe Biden, accompanied by Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California, arrives for the annual Friends of Ireland luncheon on St. Patrick’s Day at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on March 17, 2023.

    Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images

          

    What the heck really did happen on Friday, when the Dow jumped 700 points on a strong jobs reading? Why such a viscerally positive reaction to an employment number that was hotter than expected? Was it because wages didn’t spike? Was it all that perfect — a Goldilocks report?

    Here’s my take on Friday’s rally. Going into the debt ceiling crisis, there was a belief that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy couldn’t control his own Republican party. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer wasn’t much better off with the Democrats. Both had lost control of their parties to the extremists. That meant the United States would default on its debt. It seemed pretty logical.

    I truly believe the extremists never believed a default would mean more than a few weeks of setbacks and more brinkmanship. Who can blame them? President Joe Biden lamely floated that he could invoke the 14th Amendment to avoid this and any future debt limit fights; the amendment includes a clause that some legal scholars say overrides the statutory borrowing limit set by Congress.

    No matter what, it was pretty clear that chaos was our destiny. But when McCarthy and Biden agreed to temporarily suspend the debt ceiling and cap some federal spending in order to prevent a default, we got a deal that was even less contentious than the 2011 bargain. (The coming together brought to mind the legendary coalition of President Ronald Reagan and House Speaker Tip O’Neil in the 1980s, memorialized in Chris Matthews’ “Tip and the Gipper: When Politics Worked.”)

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  • Final Trades: M, JPM, DHI & KO

    Final Trades: M, JPM, DHI & KO

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    The final trades of the week. With CNBC's Sara Eisen and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Jeff Mills and Steve Grasso

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Stocks rebound from their worst week this year — but analysts aren’t optimistic

    CNBC Daily Open: Stocks rebound from their worst week this year — but analysts aren’t optimistic

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    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 27, 2023 in New York City.

    Spencer Platt | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    Stocks rebounded from last week’s lows but are still on track to end February in the red.

    What you need to know today

    • The U.K. and the EU signed a new trade deal. Known as the Windsor Framework, it remedies problems caused by the Northern Ireland Protocol, which mandates checks on goods that travel from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. Sterling jumped on the news.
    • Culture clashes may have contributed to China’s decision not to pick up the phone when the U.S. Department of Defense called after shooting down an alleged Chinese spy balloon, according to a researcher at a China-backed think tank.
    • Meta will create a new team that focuses on generative artificial intelligence models, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on Monday. The team will build “creative and expressive” tools for the company’s products like Messenger and Instagram.
    • PRO The S&P 500 might fall back to a bear market in March, warned Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist. “With the equity market showing signs of exhaustion after the last Fed meeting, the S&P 500 is at critical technical support,” Wilson wrote.

    The bottom line

    Markets pulled back from their lows of last week and managed to stage a rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.22%, the S&P increased 0.31% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.63%.

    Investors felt they had slightly more breathing room after Treasury yields eased from their peaks on Friday, with the interest-rate-sensitive 2-year yield dipping from a 16-year high. As Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, wrote, “the rapid shift in Fed funds expectations and the spike in short-term yields has been risk-off in the stock market, so some reprieve on rates today will likely boost equities.”

    Additionally, a decline in orders placed with manufacturers may have given investors a sign of slowing inflation — such signs are increasingly rare. Data released Monday showed that sales of durable goods like appliances, TVs and autos dropped 4.5% in January, worse than analysts’ expectations of a 3.6% fall. By contrast, orders increased 5.1% in December. Though a plunge in airplane orders contributed to much of the decline, orders were still down 5.1% when excluding defense.

    Earnings reports from major retailers like Target, Costco and Macy’s will be released this week and give an indication whether consumer spending will remain strong or start faltering. Regardless of what happens, analysts from JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson aren’t too optimistic. It might be best to brace for a bumpy landing for the time being.

    Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

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  • Walmart outlook disappoints Wall Street after strong holiday quarter

    Walmart outlook disappoints Wall Street after strong holiday quarter

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    Customers exit a Walmart store on January 24, 2023 in Miami, Florida. Walmart announced that it is raising its minimum wage for store employees in early March, store employees will make between $14 and $19 an hour. 

    Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Walmart on Tuesday topped holiday-quarter earnings expectations, as the discounter said it drew budget-conscious shoppers searching for food, gifts and household items at a lower price.

    But shares sunk in premarket trading, after the big-box retailer gave a weaker-than-expected outlook for the year ahead.

    The company said it expects same-store sales for Walmart U.S. to rise between 2% and 2.5% excluding fuel, in the fiscal year ahead. That’s below analysts’ expectations for 3% growth, according to StreetAccount. It anticipates adjusted earnings per share to range from $5.90 to $6.05, excluding fuel.

    Walmart’s CFO John David Rainey told CNBC shoppers are still buying fewer discretionary items, as grocery prices remain elevated. He said that factored into Walmart’s predictions for the year ahead.

    “The consumer is still very pressured,” he said. “And if you look at economic indicators, balance sheets are running thinner and savings rates are declining relative to previous periods. And so that’s why we take a pretty cautious outlook on the rest of the year.”

    Home Depot, which also reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning, also shared a softer outlook. It said it expects same-store sales to be approximately flat in the coming fiscal year.

    Here’s what Walmart reported for the fiscal fourth quarter that ended Jan. 31, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates:

    • Earnings per share: $1.71, adjusted, vs. $1.51 expected
    • Revenue: $164.05 billion vs. $159.72 billion expected

    Walmart reported a net income of $6.28 billion, or $2.32, up from $3.56 billion, or $1.28, a year earlier. 

    Revenue of $164 billion marked a 7.3% year-over-year increase.

    Same-store sales for Walmart U.S. rose 8.3%, excluding fuel. The key industry metric that includes sales from stores and clubs open for at least a year. E-commerce sales jumped by 17% year over year for Walmart U.S.

    The company is not only the nation’s largest retailer. It’s also a grocery powerhouse, a factor that has steadied sales and driven foot traffic as Americans watch the budget because of high inflation. 

    Walmart’s reputation for value has helped the retailer – as has its large grocery business. It is the largest grocer in the country by revenue. 

    At Sam’s Club, same-store sales rose 12.2%, excluding fuel.

    Shares of Walmart closed on Friday at $146.44, bringing the company’s market cap to nearly $395 billion. The company’s shares are up about 3% so far this year, underperforming the S&P 500’s approximately 6% gain during the same period.

    This is breaking news. Check back for updates.

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  • Cramer: This market is split in two and only one part is worth owning right now

    Cramer: This market is split in two and only one part is worth owning right now

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    Jim Cramer at the NYSE, June 30, 2022.

    Virginia Sherwood | CNBC

    Hardly a day goes by without someone asking me, “Why do you like Jay Powell so much?” He will question whether I am somehow buddies with the Federal Reserve chair, or assume I knew him before he got the job.

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  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday

    5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday

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    Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., November 11, 2022. 

    Andrew Kelly | Reuters

    Here are the most important news items that investors need to start their trading day:

    1. A little fall sunshine

    2. Dems hold the Senate

    U.S. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) speaks at a U.S. midterm election night party for New York Governor Kathy Hochul in New York, New York, U.S. November 8, 2022.

    Brendan McDermid | Reuters

    The U.S. Senate will remain in Democrats’ hands after their incumbents in Arizona and Nevada – Mark Kelly and Catherine Cortez Masto, respectively – were projected to win their races over the weekend. Those victories once again give Democrats 50 votes in the chamber, good enough for a majority, with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as the tie-breaker. The party could boost its leverage a bit more with a win in December’s runoff between Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker. That would take some power away from centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., and conservative West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, but they would remain pivotal on tight votes. Even if the House flips Republican, Democratic control of the Senate will make it easier for Biden to appoint judges and new Cabinet members.

    3. The FTX collapse

    Sam Bankman-Fried, founder and chief executive officer of FTX Cryptocurrency Derivatives Exchange, speaks during a Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022.

    Sarah Silbiger/ | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    There’s been a whilrwind of revelations and developments since fallen investor Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto company FTX filed for bankruptcy Friday. The company, now under the control of new CEO and restructuring chief John Ray, clamped down on trading and withdrawals after a series of “unauthorized transactions” took place soon after it declared bankruptcy. Meanwhile, new CNBC reporting says Alameda, a trading firm that Bankman-Fried founded, quietly used billions of dollars in customer funds from FTX in a manner that evaded the attention of investors, employees and auditors. Bankman-Fried, who had donated millions to Democratic political causes, also came under fire from Washington, signaling a major shift for the crypto industry. His downfall has prompted calls for stronger scrutiny from the right and left alike.

    4. Big retailers report this week

    Signage at a Walmart store in Secaucus, New Jersey.

    Lucas Jackson | Reuters

    5. Biden meets with Xi

    U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met Monday in Bali on Nov. 14, 2022.

    Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

    President Joe Biden on Monday met face-to-face with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, for the first time since he moved into the White House in January 2021. While the two presidents have spoken through multiple video conferences and calls, the in-person meeting ahead of the G-20 summit comes at a particularly tense time, between concerns over Taiwan and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, among other things. “We need to find the right direction for the bilateral relationship going forward and elevate the relationship,” Xi said, while Biden stressed that the two countries can compete without it turning into a conflict.

    In case you missed it …

    Bob Chapek, Disney CEO at the Boston College Chief Executives Club, November 15, 2021.

    Charles Krupa | AP

    “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” might have had a huge opening weekend, but cost cuts are coming to Disney. In a memo obtained by CNBC on Friday, CEO Bob Chapek told his division leaders that Disney, which is coming off a rough earnings report, would seek to trim spending across the company. That means a targeted hiring freeze, limits on travel and eventual staff cuts, Chapek wrote in the memo, which you can read here.

    – CNBC’s Yun Li, Kevin Breuninger, Jacob Pramuk, Kate Rooney, MacKenzie Sigalos, Paige Tortorelli, Brian Schwartz, Melissa Repko, Evelyn Cheng and Alex Sherman contributed to this report.

    Sign up now for the CNBC Investing Club to follow Jim Cramer’s every stock move. Follow the broader market action like a pro on CNBC Pro.

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  • Stock market rally will be put to test in week ahead, after yields fall and tech surges

    Stock market rally will be put to test in week ahead, after yields fall and tech surges

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