Tag: luiz inacio lula da silva

Lula da Silva will return to Brazil’s presidency in stunning comeback | CNN

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Sao Paulo
CNN
—

Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva has been elected the next president of Brazil, in a stunning comeback following a tight run-off race on Sunday. His victory heralds a political about-face for Latin America’s largest country, after four years of Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right administration.

The 76-year-old politician’s win represents the return of the left into power in Brazil, and concludes a triumphant personal comeback for Lula da Silva, after a series of corruption allegations lead to his imprisonment for 580 days. The sentences were later annulled by the Supreme Court, clearing his path to run for reelection.

“They tried to bury me alive and I’m here,” he said in a jubilant speech to supporters and journalists on Sunday evening, describing the win as his political “resurrection.”

“Starting on January 1, 2023, I will govern for the 215 million Brazilians, not just the ones who voted for me. There are not two Brazils. We are one country, one people, one great nation,” Lula da Silva also said.

He will take the reins of a country plagued by gross inequality that is still struggling to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Approximately 9.6 million people fell under the poverty line between 2019 and 2021, and literacy and school attendance rates have fallen. He will also be faced with a deeply fractured nation and urgent environmental issues, including rampant deforestation in the Amazon.

This will be his third term, after previously governing Brazil for two consecutive terms between 2003 and 2010.

The former leader’s victory on Sunday was the latest in a political wave across Latin America, with wins by left-leaning politicians in Argentina, Colombia and Chile. But Lula da Silva – a former union leader with a blue-collar background – has sought to reassure moderates throughout his campaign.

He has built a broad alliance including several politicians from the center and center-right, including historical opponents from the PSDB, Brazil’s Social Democrat Party. Among these politicians is his vice-president, former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin, who has been cited by the Lula camp as a guarantee of moderation in his administration.

On the campaign trail, Lula da Silva has been reluctant to show his cards when it came to outlining an economic strategy – a tendency that earned sharp criticism from his competitors. “Who is the other candidate’s economy minister? There isn’t one, he doesn’t say. What will be his political and economic route? More state? Less state? We don’t know…,” said Bolsonaro during a live transmission on YouTube on October 22.

Lula da Silva has said that he would push Congress to approve a tax reform which would exempt low-earners from paying income tax. And his campaign received a boost from centrist former presidential candidate Simone Tebet, who came third in the first round earlier this month and gave Lula da Silva her support in the run-off. Known for her ties with Brazil’s agricultural industry, Tebet said in an October 7 press conference that Lula da Silva and his economic team had “received and incorporated all the suggestions from our program to his government’s program.”

He has also received the support of several renowned economists highly regarded by investors, including Arminio Fraga, a former president of the Brazilian Central Bank.

Lula da Silva received more than 60 million votes, the most in Brazilian history, breaking his own record from 2006.

But despite the huge turnout from his supporters, his victory was by a narrow margin – Lula da Silva won 50.90% of the vote and Bolsonaro received 49.10%, according to Brazil’s electoral authority.

His biggest challenge now may be unifying a politically fractured country.

Hours after the results were announced, Bolsonaro had yet to concede defeat or make any public statement. Meanwhile, videos on social media showed his supporters had blocked highways in two states to protest against Lula da Silva’s victory.

“We will only leave once the army takes over the country,” one unidentified Bolsonaro supporter said in a video taken in the southern state of Santa Catarina.

Lula da Silva will need to pursue dialogue and rebuild relationships, said Carlos Melo, a political scientist at Insper, a university in São Paulo. “The president can be an important instrument for this as long as he is not only concerned in addressing his base of voters,” he said.

With more than 58 million votes cast for his rival Bolsonaro – who had been endorsed by former US President Donald Trump – Lula da Silva will have to form “pragmatic alliances” with parts of the center and the right that bought into his predecessor’s politics, adds Thiago Amparo, professor of law and human rights at FGV business school in São Paulo.

At the same time, he will have to deliver to match supporters’ expectations, Amparo added. “Many voters went to the ballot expecting that, not just to get rid of Bolsonaro, but with memories of better economic times during Lula’s previous governments.”

Many will be watching for potential change to the 2017 Labor Reform Act, which subjected more workers’ rights and benefits to negotiation with employers, and made union contributions optional. Lula da Silva had said previously that he would revoke the act but recently changed the verb to “review” following criticisms from the private sector.

He may find that enacting his agenda is an uphill battle, Amparo warns, especially with a hostile Congress. Seats that were from the traditional right are now occupied by the far right, who are not open to negotiation and not easy to deal with, underlines Amparo.

In the latest elections, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party increased its representatives in the lower house from 76 to 99, while in the Senate it doubled from seven members to 14. Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party has also increased its number of deputies from 56 to 68 and senators from seven to eight – but overall, conservative-leaning politicians will dominate the next legislature.

That friction will require some compromises, points out Camila Rocha, a political scientist at the Cebrap think tank. “[Bolsonaro’s] Liberal Party will have the highest number of representatives and important allies and will make real opposition to the government, [Lula da Silva’s] Worker’s Party will have to sow a coalition with [traditional rightwing party] União Brasil in order to govern, which means the negotiation of ministries and key positions,” Rocha told to CNN.

Environmentalists meanwhile will be watching Lula da Silva’s administration closely, as it assumes governance not only over the Brazilian nation but over the planet’s largest forest reserves.

With destruction of the vast Amazon rainforest reaching record levels under Bolsonaro’s presidency, Lula da Silva has repeatedly said during his campaign that he would seek to curb deforestation. He has argued that protecting the forest could produce some profit, citing the beauty and pharmaceutical industries as potential beneficiaries of biodiversity.

In an interview with foreign press in August, Lula da Silva called for “a new world governance” to address climate change and stressed that Brazil should take a central role in that governance, given its natural resources.

According to the head of Lula da Silva’s government plan, Aloizio Mercadante, another tactic will be to create a group including Brazil, Indonesia and Congo ahead of the UN-led November 2022 Conference of Parties. The group would aim to pressure richer countries to finance the protection of forests as well as outlining strategies for the global carbon market.

Several experts told CNN they believed his stance on environment and the climate issue could represent a fresh start in Brazil’s international relations.

For Amparo, environmental protection could indeed be springboard for Brazil’s global leadership, a major shift after Bolsonaro warned the world away from intervening in the destruction of the Amazon. “Lula would try to reposition, almost like a rebranding, Brazil in the international arena as a power to be taken into account,” he said.

“We can expect a government that goes back to talking to the world, especially with a new stance in the environmental area,” said Melo, the Insper researcher.

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October 30, 2022
Brazil prepares for another month of political battle as run-off looms | CNN

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São Paulo, Brazil
CNN
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Brazilians woke up to four more weeks of campaigning after a presidential vote on Sunday destined frontrunners Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro to a second round run-off later this month.

Results released Monday by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) showed left-wing candidate and former president da Silva finished with a slight lead over right-wing incumbent Bolsonaro – 48.4% versus 43.2% – not enough to cross the threshold to victory. Either candidate would have needed to surpass 50% to be elected in the first round of voting.

The two will face each other again on October 30, in what is widely seen as the most consequential ballot in the country for decades.

Still, Bolsonaro was celebrating. Brazil’s president, a divisive figure often referred to as the “Trump of the Tropics,” defied expectations from pollsters and analysts, who had suggested for months that his candidacy was losing steam. Polls had predicted he could lose in the first round, ending his presidency after a single term in office.

Bolsonaro’s result Sunday was eight points higher than the latest poll by Datafolha, a respected research group, while da Silva’s was two to three points lower than predicted.

In a jubilant Twitter thread on Monday, Bolsonaro claimed that “against everything and everyone” he was able to get a “more expressive vote” than in the 2018 election.

His conservative Liberal Party also saw a sweep of successful lower races, gaining representatives in Brazil’s House and Senate, as well as governors in several states.

“There were almost 2 million more votes! We also elected the highest number of representatives in the House and Senate, which was our highest priority at the first moment,” the president tweeted, dubbing it: “the greatest victory of patriots in the history of Brazil.”

More than 123 million Brazilians waited in long lines to vote in the world’s fourth largest democracy, while another 32 million abstained. According to TSE President Alexandre de Moraes, the extensive queues were caused by new biometric security checks and higher than expected voter turnout.

Trodden political flyers advertising different candidates still littered sidewalks around voting sites on Monday, as people tried to make sense of the results and contemplated the prospect of another month of anxiety about the country’s future.

Sunday’s “democracy party” — a term in Brazil for elections — followed a bruising campaign season marked with violence and bitter language.

In the months leading up to Sunday’s vote, Bolsonaro had frequently criticized the Brazilian electoral system and accuracy of the country’s electronic ballots system, drawing condemnation for eroding trust in the electoral process. There were several reports of violence breaking out between da Silva and Bolsonaro supporters during the campaign months, with some turning deadly.

On Monday, da Silva supporters chattered on social media about how a potential victory would weigh against the country’s new conservative legislators. For some, excitement has soured into argument about what their candidate must do to maintain his lead over the next four weeks.

During a speech on Monday in Sao Paulo, da Silva previewed a new strategy for the last stretch of his campaign. “Advice to our campaign command: from tomorrow there will be less talk between us and more talks with the voter. We don’t need to talk to people we already know, who have already voted for us or that we know will vote for us. We need to talk to those who don’t seem to like us, who don’t vote for us, who don’t like our parties,” he said.

Bolsonaro on Monday meanwhile urged supporters to “stay focused” on a prospective victory, saying that “profound change” had already taken root.

“Keep the focus! One of the main and most difficult goals was achieved yesterday,” he said.

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October 3, 2022
Brazil Vote Begins As Far-Right Bolsonaro Faces Potential For Resounding Defeat

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SAO PAULO — Standing on the back of a small flatbed truck, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva danced and waved and sang his way through a massive crowd of supporters that had gathered for a parade through the center of Brazil’s largest city on the day before the country’s presidential election.

Brazilians head to the polls Sunday in the first round of voting in a contest that has been marred by outbreaks of political violence and fears that far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who has spent two years trying to undermine the election, will contest the results and refuse to leave power.

But da Silva, a leftist who served as president from 2003 to 2010 and holds substantial leads over Bolsonaro in pre-election polls, finished this stage of the campaign in a jubilant mood seemingly meant to persuade his supporters, his country and the world that the planet’s fourth-largest democracy would survive whatever final threat Bolsonaro may pose to it.

“I have no fear,” da Silva, 76, told reporters during a Saturday afternoon news conference. “If the people elect me, there will be an inauguration and everything else I’ve promised.”

Da Silva, a former trade unionist who became an icon of the Brazilian and global left during his presidency, has led Bolsonaro in nearly every poll conducted over the past year. His optimism received another boost on Saturday, when final pre-election surveys from Brazil’s two largest pollsters showed him leading Bolsonaro 51% to 37% and 50% to 36%, with other candidates lagging far behind.

That put da Silva in range of a resounding victory in Sunday’s first round: If he garners an outright majority of votes, he would end the election without the need for a runoff election against Bolsonaro on Oct. 23.

It would mark a triumphant return for Brazil’s first working-class president, who during his tenure oversaw an economic boom that lifted millions of Brazilians out of poverty and positioned Brazil as an emerging global superpower. He left office with approval ratings above 80%, and the title of “the most popular politician in the world” bestowed on him by U.S. President Barack Obama.

His legacy seemed forever tarnished by a corruption conviction that sent him to prison in 2017. Brazil’s economy, meanwhile, collapsed under da Silva’s chosen successor, President Dilma Rousseff, who was impeached in 2016.

But da Silva’s conviction was annulled in 2019, after The Intercept Brazil exposed judicial and prosecutorial malfeasance that bolstered da Silva’s argument that the investigation had been a politically motivated witch hunt against him and the leftist Workers’ Party all along.

That paved the way for a confrontation with Bolsonaro, a right-wing authoritarian who’d made vanquishing da Silva’s Workers’ Party and many of its favored policies, especially those that benefited poor and marginalized populations, his chief political aim.

For the last two years, Bolsonaro has sought to cast doubt on the election, seemingly convinced that his only path to victory over da Silva was to undermine faith in the contest and the election itself. He has spread conspiracy theories about voter fraud, waged an all-out battle with Brazil’s electoral institutions, and promised to “go to war” if he loses. He has said he will only accept the results if he believes the election is “clean and transparent.”

The threats from a former army captain with close links to the Brazilian military have generated widespread concern of a potential coup attempt, although most experts regard that as unlikely. Others have expressed fears of a Brazilian version of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, an event Bolsonaro — a close ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump — and his allies have studied closely.

The combination of Bolsonaro’s conspiracies and his painting of the race as a battle of “good vs. evil” has contributed to a violent electoral atmosphere, during which multiple da Silva supporters have been attacked and killed by Bolsonaro backers. Da Silva has canceled events amid security concerns and ramped up his own protections. Polls, meanwhile, have shown that as many as a third of Brazilians are fearful of discussing their vote, a number that rises among supporters of da Silva’s Workers’ Party.

Voting is mandatory in Brazil, but there are concerns among some on da Silva’s side that fears of violence or political turbulence could keep some of his supporters away from the polls on Sunday. In recent weeks, da Silva has also sought to ensure turnout among Brazil’s poorest residents and to flip the votes of the roughly 15% of voters whom polls show still favor other candidates in the race.

His public parade Saturday, during which there was little visible security presence around him, seemed aimed at countering worries about violence and convincing his supporters to put an end to Bolsonaro’s presidency at the first available opportunity.

A first-round victory, many experts believe, could blunt any attempt from Bolsonaro to contest the results. Da Silva, meanwhile, argued that a definitive defeat of another far-right leader who has put democracy in his crosshairs would send a message to a global community that has largely rejected and isolated Bolsonaro thanks to the destruction of the Amazon rainforest and democratic erosion that has occurred on his watch.

“Brazil will enter into a moment of great peace, Brazil will return to a moment of great democracy, Brazil will return to a moment of extremely active and proud international relations,” da Silva said. “The message I can tell the world is that Brazil will wake up … with a more beautiful face. … Brazil has its heart and arms open to welcome the world again.”

Da Silva cast his ballot shortly before 9 a.m. in São Paulo, less than an hour after polls opened. Bolsonaro voted in his home state of Rio de Janeiro and will spend the day in Brasilia, the nation’s capital.

Polls will close at 4 p.m. Eastern time, with results expected within hours thanks to an all-electronic voting system that is widely considered one of the world’s most efficient and secure.

Top officials from the U.S. and European Union have expressed confidence in the Brazilian election system amid Bolsonaro’s threats, in an effort to help prevent a dispute. The U.S. Senate this week approved a resolution that called on the Biden administration to “review and reconsider its relationship with any government that comes to power in Brazil through undemocratic means.” EU lawmakers threatened trade sanctions against Brazil if Bolsonaro attempts to remain in power despite losing the election.

Despite da Silva’s optimism, Bolsonaro appears unlikely to simply accept defeat, whether it comes Sunday or in a runoff round three weeks from now. He and his supporters have questioned the legitimacy of the polls, and argued this weekend that Bolsonaro, not da Silva, is on the cusp of a first-round victory.

As many as a quarter of Bolsonaro’s voters do not want him to accept defeat, polls show, and many Brazilian observers consider it unlikely that he would do so after a campaign spent challenging the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system.

If the race does advance to a second round, it would “give Bolsonaro an extra month to cause as much turmoil as he can,” said Guilherme Casarões, a Brazilian political expert at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo.

Da Silva, however, pledged to celebrate the results of Sunday’s election even if he falls short of a first-round victory, especially as polls show that his lead over Bolsonaro would only expand in a head-to-head matchup.

“We’re going to party, because we deserve it,” he said Saturday. “To be reborn from the ashes is a reason to celebrate.”

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October 2, 2022
Brazilians vote in contentious election plagued by violence and fear | CNN

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São Paulo, Brazil
CNN
—

Polls opened in Brazil on Sunday in a presidential election marred by an unprecedented climate of tension and violence.

While there are nearly a dozen candidates on the ballot, the race has been dominated by two frontrunners and polar opposites: right-wing incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, leader of the Workers’ Party.

Both have been seen on the campaign trail flanked by security and police, even wearing bulletproof vests at times. Bolsonaro wore his as he kicked off his re-election bid last month in the city of Juiz de Fora, where he was stabbed in the stomach during his 2018 presidential campaign. Da Silva, who is commonly referred to as Lula, was seen also wearing a vest during an event in Rio de Janeiro, the same city where a homemade stink bomb was launched into a large crowd of his supporters back in July.

After voting alongside his wife Rosangela da Silva at a Sao Paulo school on Sunday, Lula told reporters: “We don’t want more discord, we want a country that lives in peace. This is the most important election. I am really happy.”

He also referenced the 2018 elections, where he had been unable to run – or vote – because of a corruption conviction, which was overturned last year.

“Four years ago I couldn’t vote because I had been the victim of a lie in this country. And four years later, I’m here, voting with the recognition of my total freedom and with the possibility of being president of the republic of this country again, to try to make this country return to normality,” Lula said.

Bolsonaro, who voted at a military facility in Rio de Janeiro told reporters that he had traveled to “practically every state in Brazil” over the 45 days of campaigning.

“The expectation is of victory today,” he said, later adding: “Clean elections, no problem at all.”

Voting began at 8 a.m. in Brasilia (7 a.m. ET) and concludes at 5 p.m. local (4 p.m. ET). More than 156 million Brazilians are eligible to vote.

In the Brazilian electoral system, a winning candidate must gain more than 50% of the vote. If no candidate crosses that threshold, a second round of voting between the two frontrunners will take place on October 30.

Voters are also electing new state governors, senators, federal and state deputies for the country’s 26 states and the federal district.

Bolsonaro, 67, is running for re-election under the conservative Liberal Party. He has campaigned to increase mining, privatize public companies and generate more sustainable energy to bring down energy prices. He has vowed to continue paying a R$ 600 (roughly US$110) monthly benefit known as Auxilio Brasil.

Often referred to as the “Trump of the Tropics,” Bolsonaro, who is supported by important evangelical leaders, is a highly polarizing figure. His government is known for its support for ruthless exploitation of land in the Amazon, leading to record deforestation figures. Environmentalists are warning that the future of the rainforest could be at stake in this election.

Bolsonaro has also been widely criticized for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. More than 686,000 people in Brazil have died from the virus.

Lula, 76, who was president for two consecutive terms, from 2003 to 2011, has focused his campaign on getting Bolsonaro out of office and has highlighted his past achievements throughout his campaign.

He left office with a 90% approval rating in 2011, and is largely credited for lifting millions of Brazilians from extreme poverty through the “Bolsa Familia” welfare program.

His campaign has promised a new tax regime that will allow for higher public spending. He has vowed to end hunger in the country, which has returned during the Bolsonaro government. Lula also promises to work to reduce carbon emissions and deforestation in the Amazon.

Lula, however, is also no stranger to controversy. He was convicted for corruption and money laundering in 2017, on charges stemming from the wide-ranging “Operation Car Wash” investigation into the state-run oil company Petrobras. But after serving less than two years, a Supreme Court Justice annulled Lula’s conviction in March 2021, clearing the way for him to run for president for a sixth time.

Vote counting begins right after ballots, which are mostly electronic, close on Sunday.

Electoral authorities say they expect final results from the first round to be officially announced Sunday evening. In the last few elections, results were officially declared two to three hours after voting finished.

Observers will be watching closely to see if all candidates publicly accept the result.

Bolsonaro, who has been accused of firing up supporters with violent rhetoric, has sought to sow doubts about the result and said that the results should be considered suspicious if he doesn’t gain “at least 60%.”

On Saturday, he repeated claims that he will win in the first round of presidential elections “with a margin higher than 60%,” despite being 14 points behind in the most recent poll that day.

When asked on Sunday if he will accept the results of the election, Bolsonaro said, “If they are clean elections, no problem, may the best win.”

Both Bolsonaro and his conservative Liberal Party have claimed that Brazil’s electronic ballot system is susceptible to fraud – an entirely unfounded allegation that has drawn comparisons to the false election claims of former US President Donald Trump.

There have been no proven instances of voter fraud in the electronic ballot in Brazil.

The Supreme Electoral Court has also rejected claims of flaws in the system, as “false and untruthful, with no base in reality.”

Critics have warned that such talk could lead to outbreaks of violence or even refusal to accept the election result among some Brazilians – pointing to the January 6, 2021, riot incited by Trump after he lost the vote.

There have already been several reports of political discourse turning violent from supporters across the political spectrum.

Last weekend, police registered two fatal incidents in states on opposite ends of the country. In the northeastern state of Ceara, a man was stabbed to death in a bar after identifying himself as a Lula supporter, according to police. And authorities in southern Santa Catarina state say a man wearing a Bolsonaro T-shirt was also fatally stabbed during a violent discussion with a man whom witnesses identified as a Workers’ Party supporter.

Police say they are investigating both incidents, and that arrests have been made.

And in July, a member of Lula’s Worker’s Party, who was celebrating his 50th birthday with a politically-themed party was shot dead.

Just one day before, two explosives were thrown into a crowd at a Lula rally.

According to a Datafolha poll conducted in August, more than 67% of voters in Brazil are afraid of being “physically attacked” due to their political affiliations. And the country’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal has issued a ban on firearms within 100 meters (330 feet) of any polling station on election day.

The fear factor among voters could lead to a number of abstentions on Sunday, however, recent polling shows that there are fewer undecided Brazilians this year than in previous elections.

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October 2, 2022
Bolsonaro or Lula? As Brazil prepares to vote, here’s what to know | CNN

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CNN
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Brazil’s hotly contested presidential election is less than 24 hours away, and for many Brazilians, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Two household names – former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and current leader Jair Bolsonaro – are battling to become the country’s next president. Depending on who ultimately wins, Latin America’s largest economy will likely either continue on Bolsonaro’s conservative, pro-business path, or else take a left turn under Lula.

In recent weeks, both candidates have ramped up efforts to woo voters. But this is an arduous task in a country where 85% of voters say they have already made up their minds, according to a Datafolha poll released Thursday.

For Lula, more votes could mean victory in the first round of voting, with no need for a runoff. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro needs to catch up, after slipping 14 points behind his rival in the same survey.

Brazilians will vote for their next president on Sunday, October 2, in the first round of the elections. On the same date, governors, senators, federal and state deputies for the country’s 26 states plus the federal district will also be chosen.

Voting is scheduled to start at 8 a.m. local time in Brasilia (7 a.m. ET) and concludes at 5 p.m. local (4 p.m. ET).

In the Brazilian electoral system, a winning candidate must gain more than 50% of the vote. If no candidate crosses that threshold, a second round of voting will be organized, in which the options will be narrowed down to the two frontrunners from the first round.

In Brazil, opinion polls always estimate candidates’ potential performance in the first round (competing against with all other candidates) and in the second round (with just two top candidates).

Over 156 million Brazilians are eligible to vote.

Bolsonaro and Lula are by far the candidates to watch. Though other candidates are also in the race, they’re polling with one-digit percentages and are unlikely to pose much competition.

Lula, 76, was Brazil’s President for two terms – from 2003 to 2006 and 2007 to 2011. A household name, he first came into the political scene in the 1970s as a leader of worker strikes which defied the military regime.

In 1980, he was one of the founders of the Workers’ Party (PT), which went on to become Brazil’s main left-wing political force. Lula’s presidential terms were marked by programs aimed at reducing poverty and inequality in the country but also rocked by revelations of a corruption scheme involving the payment of congressional representatives to support government proposals. Due to lack of evidence of his involvement, Lula himself was never included in the investigation of this scheme.

Lula’s campaign for the presidency now promises a new tax regime that will allow for higher public spending. He has vowed to end hunger in the country, which has returned during the Bolsonaro government. Lula also promises to work to reduce carbon emissions and deforestation in the Amazon.

Bolsonaro is a former army captain who was a federal deputy for 27 years before running for President in 2018. A marginal figure in politics during much of this time, he emerged in the mid-2010s as a leading figure of a more radically right-wing movement, which perceived the PT as its main enemy.

As a President, Bolsonaro has pursued a conservative agenda, supported by important evangelical leaders. His government also became known for its support for ruthless exploitation of land in the Amazon, leading to record deforestation figures. Environmentalists have warned that the future of the rainforest could be at stake in this election.

In his program, Bolsonaro promises to increase mining, privatize public companies and generate more sustainable energy to bring down energy prices. He has vowed to continue paying a R$600 (roughly US$110) monthly benefit known as Auxilio Brasil.

Vote counting begins right after ballots (mostly electronic) close on Sunday.

Brazil’s electoral authorities say they expect final results from the first round to be officially announced that evening, on October 2. They will be published on the electoral court’s website.

In the last few elections, results were officially declared two to three hours after voting finished. If the leading candidate does not manage to muster more than half of all valid votes, a second round will take place on October 30.

Observers will be watching closely to see if all candidates accept the vote result publicly. Bolsonaro, who has been accused of firing up supporters with violent rhetoric, has sought to sow doubts about the result and said that the results should be considered suspicious if he doesn’t gain “at least 60%.”

Both he and his conservative Liberal Party claimed that Brazil’s electronic ballot system is susceptible to fraud – an entirely unfounded allegation that has drawn comparisons to the false election claims of former US President Donald Trump.

There have been no proven instances of voter fraud in the electronic ballot in Brazil.

The Supreme Electoral Court has also rejected claims of flaws in the system, as “false and untruthful, with no base in reality.”

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October 1, 2022
Brazil’s election explained: Lula and Bolsonaro face off for a second round in high stakes vote | CNN

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CNN
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Brazil votes for a new president on Sunday, in the final round of a polarizing election that has been described as the most important in the country’s democratic history.

The choice is between two starkly different candidates – the leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, popularly known as Lula, and the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro – while the country struggles with high inflation, limited growth and rising poverty.

Rising anger has overshadowed the poll as both men have used their massive clout, on-and-offline, to attack each other at every turn. Clashes among their supporters have left many voters feeling fearful of what is yet to come.

The race could be a close one. Neither gained over 50% in a first round vote earlier this month, forcing the two leading candidates into this Sunday’s run-off vote.

Lula da Silva was president for two terms, from 2003 to 2006 and 2007 to 2011, where he led the country through a commodities boom that helped fund huge social welfare programs and lifted millions out of poverty.

The charismatic politician is known for his dramatic backstory: He didn’t learn to read until he was 10, left school after fifth grade to work full-time, and went on to lead worker strikes which defied the military regime in 1970s. He co-founded the Workers’ Party (PT), that became Brazil’s main left-wing political force.

Lula da Silva left office with a 90% approval rating – a record tarnished however by Brazil’s largest corruption probe, dubbed “Operation Car Wash,” which led to charges against hundreds of high-ranking politicians and businesspeople across Latin America. He was convicted for corruption and money laundering in 2017, but a court threw out his conviction in March 2021, clearing the way for his political rebound “in a plot twist worthy of one of the Brazilian beloved telenovelas,” Bruna Santos, a senior advisor at the Wilson Institute’s Brazil Center, told CNN.

His rival, Bolsonaro, is a former army captain who was a federal deputy for 27 years. Bolsonaro was considered a marginal figure in politics during much of this time before emerging in the mid-2010s as the figurehead of a more radically right-wing movement, which perceived the PT as its main enemy.

He ran for President in 2018 with the conservative Liberal Party, campaigning as a political outsider and anti-corruption candidate, and gaining the moniker ‘Trump of the Tropics.’ A divisive figure, Bolsonaro has become known for his bombastic statements and conservative agenda, which is supported by important evangelical leaders in the country.

But poverty has grown during his time as President, and his popularity levels took a hit over his handling of the pandemic, which he dismissed as the “little flu,” before the virus killed more than 680,000 people in the country.

Bolsonaro’s government has become known for its support of ruthless exploitation of land in the Amazon, leading to record deforestation figures. Environmentalists have warned that the future of the rainforest could be at stake in this election.

The race is a tight one for the two household names who espouse radically different paths to prosperity.

Bolsonaro’s campaign is a continuation of his conservative, pro-business agenda. Bolsonaro has promised to increase mining, privatize public companies and generate more sustainable energy to bring down energy prices. But he has also has vowed to continue paying a R$600 (roughly US$110) monthly benefit for low-income households known as Auxilio Brasil, without clearly defining how it will be paid for.

Bolsonaro accelerated those financial aid payments this month, a move seen by critics as politically motivated. “As the election loomed, his government has made direct payments to working-class and poor voters – in a classic populist move,” Santos told CNN.

Bolsonaro’s socially conservative messaging, which includes railing against political correctness and promotion of traditional gender roles, has effectively rallied his base of Brazilian conservative voters, she also said.

Lula da Silva’s policy agenda has been light on the details, focusing largely on promises to improve Brazilians fortunes based on past achievements, say analysts.

He wants to put the state back at the heart of economic policy making and government spending, promising a new tax regime that will allow for higher public spending. He has vowed to end hunger in the country, which has returned during the Bolsonaro government. Lula da Silva also promises to work to reduce carbon emissions and deforestation in the Amazon.

But Santos warns that he’ll face an uphill battle: “With a fragile fiscal scenario (in Brazil) and little power over the budget, it won’t be easy.”

Lula da Silva faces a hostile congress if he becomes president. Congressional elections on October 3 gave Bolsonaro’s allies the most seats in both houses: Bolsonaro’s right-wing Liberal Party increased its seats to 99 in the lower house, and parties allied with him now control half the chamber, Reuters reports.

“Lula seems to ignore the necessary search for new engines of growth because the state cannot grow more,” she said.

A Datafolha poll released last Wednesday showed 49% of respondents said they would vote for Lula da Silva and 45% would go for Bolsonaro, who gained a percentage point from a poll by the same institute a week ago.

But Bolsonaro fared better than expected in the October 2 first round vote, denying Lula da Silva the outright majority which polls had predicted. The incumbent’s outperformance of the polls in the first round suggests wider support for Bolsonaro’s populist brand of conservatism, and analysts expect the difference in Sunday’s vote to be much tighter than expected.

There could be any number of other surprises. Fears of violence have haunted this election, with several violent and sometimes fatal clashes between Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva supporters recorded in recent months. From the start of this year until the first round of voting, the US non-profit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded “36 instances of political violence involving party representatives and supporters across the country,” that suggests “even greater tensions and polarization than recorded in the previous general elections.”

Critics also fear Bolsonaro has been laying the groundwork to contest the election. Though he insists he will respect the results if they are “clean and transparent,” Bolsonaro has repeatedly claimed that Brazil’s electronic ballot system is susceptible to fraud – an entirely unfounded allegation that has drawn comparisons to the false election claims of former US President Donald Trump. There is no record of fraud in Brazilian electronic ballots since they began in 1996, and experts are worried the rhetoric will lead to outbreaks of violence if Lula da Silva wins.

“In this consequential election, the confidence we have in the strength of Brazilian democratic institutions is going to be challenged,” Santos said.

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December 31, 1969