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Tag: Louisville Cardinals

  • AP Top 25 poll preview: ACC playoff picture gets messier with Georgia Tech loss and SMU win

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    Eight of the top 10 teams in the AP Top 25 poll either had the day off or were given the gift of a late-season cupcake game in Week 13. No. 6 Oregon and No. 8 Oklahoma were exceptions, with ranked conference matchups against Southern California and Missouri.

    The Ducks and Sooners both maintained positioning for at-large College Football Playoff bids. Oregon beat No. 16 USC 42-27 in the teams’ first meeting as members of the Big Ten. Oklahoma improved to 9-2 with a 17-6 win over No. 23 Missouri.

    Oregon is tied with Texas Tech at No. 6 in the AP poll and is No. 7 in the CFP rankings. Oklahoma ranks No. 8 in both.

    Chaos unfolded in the Atlantic Coast Conference as No. 15 Georgia Tech was upset at home by Pittsburgh on Saturday night. The Yellow Jackets’ chances of making the conference championship plummeted, while SMU’s odds increased with a win over Louisville. No. 19 Virginia also has a good chance to make the ACC title game.

    Holding steady

    Oklahoma took care of business, knocking off Missouri and inching closer to an at-large CFP bid. John Mateer threw for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Oklahoma’s defense had two interceptions of Missouri’s Beau Pribula, who was playing for the first time since dislocating his ankle in late October, and held standout running back Ahmad Hardy to 57 rushing yards.

    — Among the Week 13 cupcakes, No. 3 Texas A&M defeated Samford 48-0 and No. 4 Georgia rolled past Charlotte 35-3. Both teams are still favorites for a first-round bye in the playoff, a position Georgia began occupying after last week’s 35-10 rout of Texas.

    — No. 1 Ohio State overcame a slow start and remained unbeaten with a 42-9 victory over Rutgers. The Buckeyes outscored the Scarlet Knights 28-6 in the second half.

    — Oregon knocked off USC 42-27. The Ducks pulled ahead with a pair of touchdowns before halftime and maintained their lead throughout the second half.

    — No. 13 Utah narrowly dodged an upset loss to Kansas State, scoring two touchdowns in the final 2:47 to overcome a 47-37 deficit and sealing the deal with a late interception.

    — No. 11 BYU beat Cincinnati 26-14 in the Big 12’s game of the week. LJ Martin rushed for 222 yards and two touchdowns to carry the Cougars.

    Falling out of the picture

    — The slide continued for a Louisville team once thought to be on its way to the ACC championship game. The Cardinals lost their third straight, 38-6 to an SMU team on the rise.

    — Missouri is at risk of falling out of the rankings after losing to Oklahoma, the Tigers’ fourth defeat this season.

    — USC’s playoff chances plummeted after a loss to Oregon that was largely viewed as an elimination game. The Trojans fell to 8-3 on the season and 6-2 in conference play.

    — In a game where a win would’ve clinched a spot in the ACC championship game, the worst-case scenario unfolded for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets lost 42-28 to Pitt.

    On the rise

    — No. 24 Tulane has three straight wins and a 9-2 record after beating Temple 37-13. Tulane is a strong contender for a CFP spot, earning the No. 12 seed in the most recent bracket as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.

    — SMU’s 38-6 rout of Louisville put the Mustangs one win away from their second ACC championship game appearance in two years.

    — Pitt’s win against Georgia Tech strengthened its playoff chances, but a lot still needs to happen for the Panthers to make their first ACC title game since 2021. Pitt needs to beat Miami next week, along with a loss by either SMU or Virginia.

    ___

    Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here and here (AP News mobile app). AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

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  • Rick Pitino says he reached out to Terry Rozier to ‘be of any help’ after gambling indictment

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    Terry Rozier’s college coach, Rick Pitino, reached out to his former player after Rozier was indicted in an illegal gambling case.

    Pitino, who coached Rozier at Louisville, said he was “shocked” at the news of Rozier’s alleged involvement and arrest “because Terry makes $22 million a year.”

    “It’s not like him,” Pitino told OutKick’s Dan Dakich.

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    Louisville Cardinals guard Terry Rozier (left) and coach Rick Pitino celebrate against the Northern Iowa Panthers in the third round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at KeyArena. (Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports)

    Rozier is facing charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering.

    “I love Terry. I texted him, ‘Terry, if I can be of any help. I love you, son. If there’s anything I can do to help you, please get a hold of me.’ I don’t know what’s going on with him there. It doesn’t sound like a person making $22 million is worried about a prop bet. That doesn’t make any sense to me at all.” 

    Rozier’s charges stem from a game in which he played less than 10 minutes, citing a foot injury. Multiple bettors placed high-stakes wagers on Rozier to perform poorly before the game, all of which won.

    Rozier’s attorney, Jim Trusty, admitted Rozier “told a friend” he would take himself out of a game early, which is “not a crime.”

    Terry Rozier playing for the Heat

    Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier  during the second half against the Washington Wizards March 31, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nick Wass, File)

    EX-KNICKS STAR CHARLES OAKLEY MUST PAY MSG $642K IN ATTORNEY FEES AMID ONGOING COURT BATTLE OVER 2017 EJECTION

    Neither Hornets officials nor betting companies were made aware of Rozier’s plan, according to the indictment, and Rozier was not listed on the team’s injury report.

    After Rozier played just nine minutes and never returned, the bets won. Rozier and his friend, Deniro Laster, counted cash winnings at Rozier’s home in Charlotte roughly a week later, the indictment says.

    When asked if Rozier gave inside information for the purpose of illegal betting, Trusty said the answer was an “absolute not. Never happened.”

    Rozier was placed on immediate leave from the Miami Heat, the NBA announced shortly after the arrest, “and we will continue to cooperate with the relevant authorities.”

    Terry Rozier

    Charlotte Hornets guard Terry Rozier looks to pass against the Boston Celtics during the second half at Spectrum Center. (Nell Redmond/USA Today Sports)

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    “The integrity of our game remains our top priority,” the NBA said.

    Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

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  • No. 11 Clemson tries to stay perfect in ACC play and against Louisville on Saturday night

    No. 11 Clemson tries to stay perfect in ACC play and against Louisville on Saturday night

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    Louisville (5-3, 3-2 ACC) at No. 11 Clemson (6-1, 5-0), Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

    BetMGM College Football Odds: Clemson by 10 by 2 1/2.

    Series record: Clemson leads 8-0.

    What’s at stake?

    Clemson has been on a tear since losing its opener to then-No. 1 Georgia, winning six in a row by lopsided margins. The Tigers must keep winning as one of four ACC teams still undefeated in league play to stay on track for a return to the championship game. Louisville had hoped to be in the mix, too, but has lost to ranked opponents in Miami and SMU to fall off the pace.

    Key matchup

    Louisville QB Tyler Shough vs. Clemson’s defensive line. The Tigers have taken advantage of opponents not nearly as offensively skilled as them to open big leads. That’s unlikely to happen with the Cardinals, who are averaging 460 yards and 36 points a game. Clemson needs to get pressure on Shough, the Texas Tech transfer who’s has four 300-yard passing games this season.

    Players to watch

    Louisville: RB Isaac Brown is a freshman who’s run for 649 yards, second only to Heisman Trophy winner and NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, who ran for 960 yards as a freshman in 2015. Brown’s yards are the most nationally among freshmen and his six TDs on the ground are tied for second.

    Clemson: LB Wade Woodaz leads the Tigers with 53 tackles and eight quarterback pressures. He’s also forced three fumbles and is tied for the top with freshman Sammy Brown with 6.5 tackles for loss this season.

    Facts & figures

    Clemson is looking to go 9-0 all-time against the Cardinals. … Louisville has about as balanced an offense as possible this season, running 244 times with 14 TDs and throwing it 246 times for 18 scores. … The Tigers have rushed for at least one touchdown in 57 straight home games, the longest such current streak in the country. … Shough, who is in his seventh year after stops at Oregon and the Red Raiders, has so far thrown for a career-high 2,348 yards and 20 touchdowns. … Clemson passer Cade Klubnik has also had a stellar year this season with a career-high 20 TD throws. … The Tigers have won their past 22 home games played at night. Their last loss was a 51-14 defeat at Death Valley to Florida State in 2013.

    ___

    Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

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  • Ranking 134 college football teams after Week 8: BYU can no longer be ignored

    Ranking 134 college football teams after Week 8: BYU can no longer be ignored

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    Editor’s note: The Athletic 134 is a weekly ranking of all FBS college football teams.

    It’s time to take notice of BYU.

    The Cougars are undefeated and have delivered Kansas State and SMU their only losses of the season. Yet BYU remains outside the top 10 in both the AP and Coaches polls. But not here. BYU is up to No. 7 in this week’s edition of The Athletic 134.

    I’m surprised the Cougars haven’t gotten more love. They’re undefeated at 7-0 and have two really good wins, both of which are better than the best wins of Iowa State (Iowa) and several other teams around their place in the polls. They’ve actually been in my top 10 for weeks.

    Perhaps it’s because BYU has twice played on Friday nights, or because its 38-9 win against Kansas State was a 10:30 p.m. kickoff on a Saturday. Yes, the Cougars have played some close games and needed a late touchdown to beat Oklahoma State, but this team and especially this defense looks legit, now 13th in yards per play allowed.

    You should also take notice because the second half of the schedule is manageable. BYU and Iowa State don’t play each other in the regular season. The Cougars already beat K-State and won’t play 5-2 Colorado. If the Big 12 wants to get two teams into the College Football Playoff, BYU would likely be one of them.

    GO DEEPER

    AP Top 25: Oregon new No. 1; Vandy ends poll drought

    We’re more than halfway through the season, and we’re still getting surprise results that shake up the rankings. Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 134.

    1-10

    Rank Team Record Prev

    1

    7-0

    1

    2

    6-1

    3

    3

    6-0

    4

    4

    7-0

    6

    5

    5-1

    5

    6

    6-1

    2

    7

    7-0

    8

    8

    6-1

    12

    9

    6-1

    11

    10

    6-1

    9

    Georgia slides up to No. 2 after its win at Texas, while the Longhorns fall to No. 6 because their best win at this point is a sliding Michigan team or a sliding Oklahoma. The Bulldogs’ loss to Alabama keeps them from the top spot, especially after the Tide lost again and are now ranked next to Boise State, which Oregon beat.

    Miami jumps Ohio State after its win at Louisville, but the Ohio State-Penn State game in two weeks will be another shakeup game.

    Tennessee and LSU jump into the top 10 after the Vols beat Alabama and the Tigers beat Arkansas 34-10. Tennessee and LSU’s resumes are incredibly even, but Tennessee has the better Best Win, so the Vols get the slight edge.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Tennessee proved against Alabama it’s not a one-hit wonder under Josh Heupel

    11-25

    I’d been a little skeptical of Indiana’s ceiling after beating up on bad teams, but Saturday’s 56-7 demotion of Nebraska has turned me into a believer, moving the Hoosiers to No. 11. The bad news: Quarterback Kurtis Rourke is out indefinitely with a thumb injury. But the path to 10 or even 11 wins is there. Iowa State slips two spots mostly due to the performances turned in by Tennessee, LSU and Indiana on the same day that the Cyclones needed to rally late to survive UCF.

    Illinois is the only newcomer to the top 25, back after a 21-7 win against Michigan to move to 6-1.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Stewart Mandel’s 12-team Playoff projections after Week 8

    26-50

    Teams just outside the top 25 took all kind of losses this week. As a result, Syracuse, UNLV, South Carolina, Memphis, Army, Duke and Cincinnati make big jumps into the top 35. Michigan State also jumps to No. 39 after a 32-20 win against Iowa. Next up is a Michigan-MSU game that could have major bowl implications for both.

    Is it weird that we’ve stopped talking about Colorado right as the Buffs became a solid team? Colorado is 5-2 and No. 38 after a 34-7 win against Arizona, which comes after a last-minute loss to Kansas State and a win against UCF. It’d be a shocker if Colorado didn’t go bowling, which is another improvement for coach Deion Sanders.

    No. 46 Florida and No. 47 Virginia Tech also move into the top 50 after handling Kentucky and Boston College, respectively. Utah continues to slide and is now just hanging onto No. 50 after losing to TCU.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Georgia’s defensive havoc takes down Texas and more from Week 8

    51-75

    USC has tumbled to No. 52 after blowing another 14-point lead and losing at Maryland to drop to 1-4 in Big Ten play. No. 53 Rutgers lost a shocker to UCLA and dropped out of the top 50.

    Louisiana continues to sneak around the top of the Sun Belt, now No. 60 after beating Coastal Carolina to move to 6-1 overall, while Georgia Southern took control of the Sun Belt East in beating James Madison and moves up to No. 63 from No. 82. Toledo is up to No. 68 after beating Northern Illinois.

    No. 65 NC State and No. 66 Cal are the toughest teams to rank. NC State recently lost to Wake Forest but turned around and beat Cal, which is 0-4 in ACC play by a total of nine points. If the Golden Bears could make a field goal, their record would be completely different.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Morales: USC has invested heavily in Lincoln Riley and his staff. Where are the results?

    76-100

    Baylor jumps to No. 76 after a surprising 59-35 win against Texas Tech. Texas State drops to No. 77 after a loss to Old Dominion. Auburn blew a double-digit lead against Missouri, dropping to 2-5, and slips to No. 80.

    No. 82 Western Michigan is actually atop the MAC at 3-0 after beating Buffalo, which has defeated Toledo and NIU. Marshall jumps up to No. 81 because the Herd have a win against WMU and beat Georgia State last week.

    The bottom of the Power 4 is bunching together. Purdue is the lowest of the group at No. 95, but Florida State is just ahead at No. 94 after losing to Duke for the first time ever. No. 93 Mississippi State has played Georgia and Texas A&M competitively in recent weeks, while Houston slides back down to No. 89 after a 42-14 loss to Kansas.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Big 12, ACC should relish multiple bids if they get them: College Football Playoff Bubble Watch

    101-134

    New Mexico has won three games in a row after a 50-45 barnburner against Utah State to move up to No. 106 in Bronco Mendenhall’s first year. UTSA’s win against Florida Atlantic bounces the Roadrunners back up to No. 110.

    UTEP got its first win of the season, beating FIU, to move up to No. 129. That leaves the FBS with just two winless teams: Kennesaw State and Kent State.

    The Athletic 134 series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Chris Gardner / Getty Images)

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  • Week 8’s top 10 college football games: Georgia-Texas, Alabama-Tennessee and much more

    Week 8’s top 10 college football games: Georgia-Texas, Alabama-Tennessee and much more

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    On the heels of two of the more riveting weeks of college football in recent memory comes a jam-packed Saturday that features a trio of SEC headliners, including a top-five clash between blue bloods. There’s also multiple rivalry games that feature boots (sort of), and a potential College Football Playoff showcase in Bloomington, Indiana, of all places.

    Bless this sport.

    Let’s rank the top 10 games of Week 8, starting with honorable mentions and counting down.

    Honorable Mention: Oklahoma State at No. 13 BYU, Ohio at Miami (Ohio), Virginia at No. 10 Clemson, Auburn vs No. 19 Missouri, Louisiana at Coastal Carolina, Toledo at NIU, Colorado at Arizona, James Madison at Georgia Southern, UCF at No. 9 Iowa State.

    (All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. Stream college football on fubo.  All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)

    Let’s give flowers to two teams that have exceeded expectations in the Big 12. Both were projected to finish near the bottom of the conference, but the winner on Saturday will have played its way into the conference title conversation. Arizona State and wrecking-ball running back Cam Skattebo have been proving the doubters wrong for weeks. But the Sun Devils will be without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt due to a rib injury; fifth-year journeyman Jeff Sims will start in his place. The Bearcats and gunslinging transfer QB Brendan Sorsby will try to take advantage of a depleted ASU crossing two time zones for an early kickoff.

    Line: Cincinnati -4.5

    9. UNLV (5-1) at Oregon State (4-2), 10 p.m., Fubo, The CW

    The Rebels rebounded from an overtime loss to Syracuse by hanging a 50-burger on Utah State last week, keeping pace with Boise State in the Mountain West standings. It sets up a massive game in Las Vegas next week against the Broncos that will have huge implications on the conference race and battle for the Group of 5’s spot in the CFP. But a win this Saturday in Corvallis would add a nice bullet point to UNLV’s resume in the meantime. Oregon State, looking to recover from a surprising loss to Nevada, should eventually make for an instructive common opponent between the two. The Beavs play at Boise State next month.

    Line: UNLV -7

    8. No. 17 Kansas State (5-1) at West Virginia (3-3), 7:30 p.m., Fubo, Fox

    There are intriguing matchups involving the Big 12’s three ranked teams this week, including Oklahoma State at No. 13 BYU and UCF at No. 9 Iowa State. But K-State has the most at stake. It is the only of those three ranked squads going on the road, and the only one with a loss. Of the teams in the top five of the Big 12’s preseason poll, the Wildcats are also the only one that hasn’t been a disappointment thus far. A second defeat, however, would quickly put their conference title and CFP hopes on life support, even in the ever-chaotic Big 12. Kansas State can’t afford to stumble in Morgantown against a streaky but resilient West Virginia, in a face-off of two proficient rushing attacks.

    Line: Kansas State -3

    7. No. 24 Michigan (4-2) at No. 22 Illinois (5-1), 3:30 p.m., Fubo, CBS

    A bit surprising for a ranked matchup to be this low on the list — except for the fact that Michigan has one of the worst offenses in college football (and maybe shouldn’t be ranked?). Illinois just needed overtime to beat a terrible Purdue team that scored 40 points second-half points. Still, hat tip to the Illini, who are 5-1 and playing the first ranked matchup at Memorial Stadium since 2000. Illinois will also honor legendary halfback Red Grange — the Galloping Ghost — a century after his epic 402-yard, six-touchdown game against the Wolverines. The Illini will sport throwback uniforms and hand-painted helmets that took 18 months to create.

    Line: Michigan -3.5

    GO DEEPER

    What does Michigan-Illinois mean? Previewing a sneaky big game for Wolverines, Illini

    Expect this one to play out differently than the 55-0 shutout that Notre Dame pitched when these teams last met in 2021. Unfortunately, injuries will be a storyline. The Irish lost All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison to a season-ending hip injury, and Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King will be a game-time decision after suffering a knock in last week’s win over North Carolina. If King can’t go, the job will fall to sophomore backup Zach Pyron, who has completed 5 of 7 passes and rushed for four touchdowns in limited action. Either way, the Irish can’t take this one lightly, with a remaining schedule that looks a lot tougher than we all expected, including ranked games against Navy and Army ahead of the regular-season finale at USC.

    Line: Notre Dame -12.5

    5. Nebraska (5-1) at No. 16 Indiana (6-0), Noon, Fubo, Fox

    I have thoroughly enjoyed the Indiana and Curt Cignetti media blitz this week, including this stellar profile of Cignetti by Joe Rexrode. The Hoosiers are basking in the glow of their first 6-0 start since 1967, and rightfully so. They’ve been one of the biggest surprises this season in Year 1 under Cignetti, and have yet to trail through six games. Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff is headed to Bloomington as IU faces Nebraska and freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who is acting wise beyond his years. Big-time game featuring a pair of top-10 defenses (and a top-five offense for Indiana). The Huskers, who have lost 25 straight to ranked opponents, will get two cracks in a row at Indiana and then at Ohio State. On the other side, another win for the Hoosiers will shift the chatter from fast start to legit Playoff contender.

    Line: Indiana -6.5

    4. No. 8 LSU (5-1) at Arkansas (4-2), 7 p.m., Fubo, ESPN

    It’s the Battle for the Golden Boot, one of the more underappreciated rivalry names and trophies in college football. LSU has won seven of the last eight matchups, but both teams are coming off mammoth victories.

    The Tigers won a classic in overtime against Ole Miss despite never leading until the game’s final play, and Arkansas popped the first leak in Tennessee’s balloon a couple of weeks ago. The Razorbacks are better than anticipated — and Sam Pittman may have saved his job — while LSU has clawed back into the top 10 and CFP picture after the season-opening loss to USC. The Tigers will need more consistency out of Garrett Nussmeier to make some noise in the SEC, but his performance at the end of the Ole Miss victory showed how high his ceiling can be.

    Line: LSU -2.5

    3. No. 6 Miami (6-0) at Louisville (4-2), Noon, Fubo, ABC

    More top-notch rivalry hardware — and footwear: The Schnellenberger Trophy, which was introduced last season and currently resides with the Cardinals. Battle for the Golden Boots???

    This game is flying under the radar thanks to a loaded SEC slate, but it should be a fun, high-scoring barnburner. Miami desperately needed a bye after a pair of close calls against Virginia Tech and Cal, but Heisman hopeful Cam Ward and the Hurricanes remain one of 11 unbeaten teams in college football. Louisville ended a two-game skid last Saturday with a win at Virginia, with a top-15 offense (7.2 yards per play) led by quarterback Tyler Shough. Miami has the top offense in FBS at 8.2 yards per play, and Ward leads all FBS quarterbacks in passing yards per game (369.8).

    Line: Miami -5

    2. No. 7 Alabama (5-1) at No. 11 Tennessee (5-1), 3:30 p.m., Fubo, ABC

    An almost top-10 matchup between two teams that are either national title contenders or complete frauds, depending on which message board thread you read. Either way, the Third Saturday in October should provide some insight, and it’s a critical one as both teams try to avoid a second loss and spiraling fan bases. This is a tough game to handicap: Alabama has a top-10 offense, Tennessee has a top-two defense, but both teams have been mercurial on the field. David Ubben did a nice job digging in on that variability for an anonymous coaching confidential on the game, and Kennington Smith III examined how first-year Alabama head coaches have fared in the Tennessee rivalry.

    Line: Alabama -3

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    What’s going on with Alabama and Tennessee? Coaches who faced them weigh in

    1. No. 5 Georgia (5-1) at No. 1 Texas (6-0), 7:30 p.m., Fubo, ABC

    Praise be: It’s our third top-five showdown of the season. The first two — Georgia vs Alabama and Ohio State vs Oregon — resulted in two of the best games of the year to this point. This is the sixth all-time meeting between Georgia and Texas and first since the 2019 Sugar Bowl.

    The Dawgs are underdogs for the first time in the last 50 games (!), and might need a road win over the top-ranked team in the country to preserve their CFP hopes. Texas, meanwhile, has been stellar on both sides of the ball and is arguably in a class of its own right now, though it has yet to face an opponent as good as Georgia. Quinn Ewers did look a tad rusty in his return from injury against Oklahoma last week, so we’ll see if that lingers. But coaches we spoke with for our coaching confidential on the game see Texas having the upper hand.

    Another win for the Longhorns would cement them as the clear national title favorite. But if the chaos timeline of this college football season continues, we’ll see a slightly diminished Georgia take down the Horns in Austin, and the top of the sport will officially look as vulnerable as it has in years.

    Line: Texas -4.5

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Coaching confidential: Texas has the edge against Georgia in SEC showdown

    Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images

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    The New York Times

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  • Ranking Week 4’s top 10 college football games: From NC State-Clemson to Tennessee-Oklahoma

    Ranking Week 4’s top 10 college football games: From NC State-Clemson to Tennessee-Oklahoma

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    College football conference play is (mostly) underway and the stakes will be raised accordingly. The sport dips its toes this weekend with ranked matchups in the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC featuring College Football Playoff favorites and some remaining question marks.

    Let’s rank the top 10 games of Week 4, starting with a few honorable mentions and counting down.

    Honorable Mention: JMU at North Carolina, Rutgers at Virginia Tech, Memphis at Navy, TCU at SMU, Iowa at Minnesota

    (All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)

    10. San Jose State (3-0) at Washington State (3-0), Friday, 10 p.m., The CW

    What a win for Wazzu last week. It upset Washington in a new, strange rendition of the Apple Cup rivalry, secured by a dramatic goal-line stand by the Cougars. Quarterback John Mateer is a dual-threat firecracker, head coach Jake Dickert brought a celebratory cigar to the postgame news conference, and Washington State is one of the early feel-good teams. Now the Cougars have a different type of grudge match against San Jose State, which might feel scorned by WSU for helping lead the Pac-12’s poaching of the Mountain West. The Spartans haven’t faced anyone as good as Wazzu yet, but former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo abandoned the triple option and has SJSU airing it out to an undefeated start, including a road win over Air Force.

    Line: Washington State -11.5

    Rough start for NC State. Following the 51-10 blowout loss to Tennessee, the Wolfpack lost starting quarterback Grayson McCall to injury in a 30-20 win over Louisiana Tech. True freshman backup CJ Bailey will start against Clemson and led the comeback over Lousiana Tech, but NC State hasn’t looked at all like a team deserving of its preseason Top 25 ranking. This will be an interesting test for Clemson, as well, coming off a bye following the blowout loss to Georgia and blowout win over App State. Are the Tigers still a legit threat in the ACC and Playoff race? The spread in this one suggests as much. Either way, Saturday’s result should get us a little closer to those answers.

    Line: Clemson -20.5


    Clemson QB Cade Klubnik threw for a career-high 378 yards on a 92.3 percent completion rate against App State. (Alex Hicks Jr. / USA Today Sports via Imagn Images)

    8. Arkansas (2-1) at Auburn (2-1), 3:30 pm, ESPN

    It’s tough to properly articulate in text, but this game just feels like leaf-changing college football in the fall. The game is on ESPN now instead of CBS, neither team is expected to be in the mix for the SEC title or CFP, Arkansas’ Sam Pittman is on the hot seat — but there’s an ineffable nostalgia hit with this matchup. It should be an interesting quarterback matchup between Arkansas’ dual-threat Taylen Green and Auburn redshirt freshman Hank Brown, who threw four touchdowns in his first start against New Mexico last week. Both teams have gantlet schedules ahead and could really use a win to keep fans from getting restless.

    Line: Auburn -3

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    College football Week 4 oddly specific predictions: Rolling with road favorites

    How about Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils? The second-year head coach has ASU — picked dead last in the Big 12 preseason poll — off to an undefeated start with three solid wins, including a barnburner over Texas State last Thursday. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has been workmanlike, running back Cam Skattebo is a wrecking ball, and Dillingham’s commitment to recruiting Texas is already paying dividends. Whether ASU can make any noise in the Big 12 race remains to be seen, but it could start against a puzzling Texas Tech team that escaped in overtime against Abilene Christian, got smoked by Wazzu and then hung 66 on North Texas.

    Line: Texas Tech -3

    6. Georgia Tech (3-1) at No. 19 Louisville (2-0), 3:30 pm, ESPN2

    Georgia Tech got right with a blowout over VMI following the close loss to Syracuse, and with a brief stay in the Top 25, it’s clear the Yellow Jackets are better than most anticipated this season. But Louisville is the team I’m more curious about. The Cardinals have climbed into the top 20 almost by default on the strength of easy wins over Austin Peay and Jacksonville State. Transfer quarterback Tyler Shough has impressed against inferior competition, but with a road trip to Notre Dame next week, this game should provide a much better sense of how viable an ACC and Playoff contender Louisville can be this season.

    Line: Louisville -10.5

    5. No. 8 Miami (3-0) at South Florida (2-1), 7 p.m., ESPN

    Mario Cristobal’s year-three warpath makes an intriguing stop in Tampa. Quarterback Cam Ward has been spectacular for the Hurricanes, ranking second in FBS in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns, third in yards per attempt and fourth in QB rating, lifting Miami into the top 10. But now it has to face a USF squad that gave Alabama fits for 3 1/2 quarters. Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown has run the ball effectively but struggled through the air, and USF’s defense fissured late against the Tide, allowing 21 points over the final six minutes. A decisive road win, in prime time on ESPN, would shift the Miami hype train into high gear.

    Line: Miami -16.5


    Cam Ward transferred to Miami from Washington State in the offseason and is leading the Hurricanes toward their CFP hopes. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)

    4. No. 24 Illinois (3-0) at No. 22 Nebraska (3-0), 8 p.m. Friday, Fox

    The ranked Big Ten matchup you didn’t know you needed in your life. Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola and his Patrick Mahomes cosplay will get another turn in the spotlight Friday night against the undefeated Illini. Raiola has been impressive for a true freshman with heavy expectations and a fan base that is desperate to return to winning football. The Cornhuskers haven’t been to a bowl game in seven seasons, haven’t beaten a ranked team since 2016 and haven’t done so at home since 2011. Enter an Illinois team that is second in FBS with a plus-8 turnover margin. The Illini haven’t been elite in other areas thus far but are stout enough to keep the optimism in Lincoln on high alert.

    Line: Nebraska -8.5

    3. No. 11 USC (2-0) at No. 18 Michigan (2-1), 3:30 p.m., CBS

    It’s Alex Orji time for Michigan. The speedy junior takes over at quarterback for Davis Warren, who threw six interceptions in three games at the helm of a dismal offense. Can Orji provide enough of a spark to turn things around? The Wolverines are a home underdog for the second time in three weeks. They got clobbered by Texas in Week 2 and now get USC coming off an idle week. The Trojans are surging in The Athletic’s Playoff projector after the opening-week win over LSU and with what looks to be a much improved defense under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn. A road victory over Michigan would further boost those CFP hopes, especially with a favorable schedule the rest of the way: no Ohio State, no Oregon, and Penn State, Nebraska and Notre Dame all at home.

    Line: USC -6

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    USC superfans adjusting to travel in the new Big Ten: ‘It feels like a grind this year’

    2. No. 12 Utah (3-0) at No. 14 Oklahoma State (3-0), 4 p.m., Fox

    Utah quarterback Cam Rising is expected to play after suffering an injury to his throwing hand in the Week 2 win over Baylor. The Utes have been predictably strong on defense and remain the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 but are traveling into the thunderdome of Stillwater. The Pokes have been somewhat of an enigma. Doak Walker-winning running back Ollie Gordon II has been mostly held in check, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, but seventh-year quarterback Alan Bowman has picked up the slack. Bowman is sixth in FBS in passing yards along with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. This is a crucial stretch for Oklahoma State, which travels to Kansas State next week and is still without star linebacker Collin Oliver. With Utah headed to Arizona next week, we should have a better handle on the top of the Big 12 by the end of the month.

    Line: Utah -2.5

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    After 7 years, one devastating knee injury, Cam Rising knows there’s beauty in struggle

    1. No. 6 Tennessee (3-0) at No. 15 Oklahoma (3-0), 7:30 p.m., ABC

    The big storyline is Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel returning to Oklahoma, where he quarterbacked the program to a national championship and was later fired as offensive coordinator. Joe Rexrode penned a great retrospective on how the reunion has unfolded for all involved (worked out for Tennessee!), as well as the stakes for a game Joe describes as an “early College Football Playoff clarifier.” The Vols look like a wagon, leading the FBS in points per game at 63.7. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s 10.4 yards per attempt ranks eighth among all quarterbacks and the offense is averaging 8.1 yards per play. The Sooners are on the other end of the spectrum, averaging just 4.9 yards per play under quarterback Jackson Arnold, who is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt and still trying to find his groove. (Potentially getting wide receivers Nic Anderson and Andrel Anthony back from injury could help on that front.) Brent Venables’ defense has been solid, but it’s Tennessee that is allowing 3.1 yards per play and 4.3 points per game, both in the top three in FBS. ESPN’s “College GameDay” heads to Norman to see if the Sooners can slow down Tennessee in the first SEC showdown for Oklahoma.

    Line: Tennessee -7

    (Top photo of Jackson Arnold: Aaron M. Sprecher / Getty Images)

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  • Ranking CFB teams better off (Texas), worse off (USC), or same (Nebraska) in new era

    Ranking CFB teams better off (Texas), worse off (USC), or same (Nebraska) in new era

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    There has been much discourse since the latest round of realignment and media deals that every team in the ACC and the Big 12 should want to be in the Big Ten or SEC, because those conferences make the most money. But the fans themselves aren’t seeing a dime of it. Their lone concern is whether their team wins on Saturday — and more money hardly guarantees more victories.

    With college football undergoing a massive facelift in 2024 — bigger conferences, an expanded College Football Playoff — every fan base in the country should be asking just one question: Is any of this going to help us win games?

    For example: Oklahoma will make a lot more money in the SEC than it would have in the Big 12. But it also faces a much tougher path to a national championship, whereas Kansas State’s chances of reaching the CFP have increased due to the Big 12’s bigger field and the loss of Oklahoma and Texas.

    So what about your school? Does its chances of success increase, decrease or remain the same in the sport’s new world order?

    To assess, I’ve given all 67 power-conference schools a score between minus-5 and positive-5. The score is solely about a team’s ability to win, and does not take into account the team’s current coaching staff or roster. Scoring a 0 means the school is neither better nor worse off. A score from 1 to 5 ranges from mildly better to far better, and -1 to -5 ranges from mildly worse to … uh oh.

    ACC

    SMU: +5

    Has there been a bigger realignment winner in the last 30 years? SMU had not finished in the Top 25 in four decades at the time it got the call up to the big leagues last September. Now it comes in with momentum after finishing last season No. 22.

    Clemson: +3

    Dabo Swinney’s 2015-2020 teams had to be near-perfect to reach the four-team CFP; his 11-2 ACC title squad in 2022 would have earned a top-4 seed. His aloof portal approach doesn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t factor into this score.

    Florida State: +3

    The irony of FSU trying to sue its way out of the ACC is that the new system works in its favor. Would it rather be the best team in the ACC and earn a top-4 seed and a first-round bye, or the fourth-best team in the SEC and live on the bubble?

    Louisville: +2

    Louisville has upside. The school has the resources and recruiting footprint to be a regular ACC and CFP contender, and it helps that Louisville is no longer trapped in a division with Florida State (which it does not play this season) and Clemson.

    Miami: +2

    The U has been stuck in the mud for two decades, but it began flexing its muscle as soon as NIL went into effect in 2021. The program has most of the elements needed to be a 12-team CFP regular, provided the right coach is in place.

    Virginia Tech: +2

    The Hokies would have made a 12-team CFP nine times in a 16-year span (1995-2010) under Frank Beamer. They may never replicate that level of consistency, but there’s no reason they can’t become a semi-regular contender again.

    NC State: +1

    The Wolfpack have not won a conference title since 1979. That might be a tad more attainable now that they’re no longer in the same division as Florida State and Clemson. (At least elsewhere, Wolfpack vibes are high.)

    Georgia Tech: 0

    Recruiting has always been challenging for the Yellow Jackets, made even more so now by NIL. But based on its history, Georgia Tech could make an occasional CFP appearance. It would have gone in 1990, 1998 and 2009, and would have been the first team out in 2014.

    North Carolina: 0

    This unquestioned basketball school has been long considered a sleeping giant in football but has yet to wake up. If it finally does, it will more likely be due to an inspired head-coaching hire than the various changes to the sport.

    Pittsburgh: -2

    Pitt is nearly 50 years removed from its national heyday, but it did win the ACC in 2021, which would have garnered a 12-team berth. But star receiver Jordan Addison’s jump to USC the following spring was a window into new NIL reality.

    Syracuse: -2

    It’s early, but new coach Fran Brown has discovered there’s money in the banana stand. Landing Ohio State QB Kyle McCord raised eyebrows. More broadly, though, it’s hard to argue the new landscape does much to benefit the Orange.

    Virginia: -2

    Arguably the one thing UVA had going for it was the mediocrity of the ACC Coastal Division, which it won in 2019 while going 9-3. Now, the Cavaliers — who last finished in the Top 25 back two decades ago — risk falling into deep irrelevance moving forward.

    Wake Forest: -2

    The tiniest school in Power 4 has more donor support than one might assume, and it’s not a championship-or-bust fan base. But reaching a 12-team CFP could be largely unattainable. Will programs like this be able to sustain interest?

    Boston College: -3

    BC is the type of school that suffers in a world of roster-poaching and NIL deals. Success will also be increasingly defined by Playoff appearances, and the Eagles have finished in the top 12 only twice since World War II.

    Duke: -3

    Duke just lived through the downside of its new reality. It lost coach Mike Elko to an SEC school after just two seasons and quarterback Riley Leonard went to Notre Dame, likely for a seven-figure NIL deal.

    Stanford: -4

    The Cardinal will always attract recruits that covet that degree. But the school’s admissions process limits it to taking only a few transfers a year, which creates a big disadvantage in the new landscape. And like Cal, the ACC is not ideal.

    Cal: -5

    Serious question: Would Cal have been better off getting Washington State/Oregon State’d? An already lagging program must now compete in a far-away Power 4 conference while receiving 30 percent of its money (and without SMU’s boosters).

    GO DEEPER

    Feldman’s CFP 12-team projection: Why I like Miami, PSU and Texas

    Big Ten

    Ohio State: +4

    Only once in the past 19 seasons have the Buckeyes lost more than two regular-season games. That means they would have made a 12-team Playoff all but once in the past 19 seasons. And probably pulled off an extra national title or two.

    Michigan: +3

    For the most part, Michigan will still be Michigan. The Big House will still pack in 110,000. The season will still be defined by whether it beats Ohio State. But a 12-team Playoff field certainly doesn’t hurt.

    Penn State: +3

    Had the 12-team Playoff been in place all along, James Franklin would have made five appearances in his first 10 seasons. The format is ideal for programs like PSU: not quite “elite,” but has the resources to compete nationally.

    Michigan State: +2

    While the Spartans only made the four-team CFP once, they could have made a 12-team field as many as five times from 2011-21. They also get Ohio State off the books in 2025 and 2026 after having played the Buckeyes in 14 consecutive seasons.

    Oregon: +2

    The Ducks are the best-positioned of the four West Coast schools joining the Big Ten. They recruit nationally and have Phil Knight’s war chest. While national titles have remained elusive, regular CFP appearances are realistic.

    Maryland: +1

    The Terps are free! They are no longer stuck in the Big Ten East, where their ceiling would forever be 7-5 and fourth place out of seven. But the upside may be limited until the school’s donors make a bigger splash in the NIL world.

    Rutgers: +1

    Like “rival” Maryland, Rutgers is finally out from under the Big Ten East. It’s also doing surprisingly well in NIL. The program’s ceiling may still be limited to 8-4 or so, but that would still be much better than its first decade in the conference.

    Nebraska: 0

    It may be tougher for the Cornhuskers to contend for Big Ten championships in a bigger league. But right now, that’s not even the target, given they haven’t even reached a bowl game in eight years. How much worse can it get?

    Wisconsin: -1

    The program has long churned out double-digit wins by “holding serve” against most of the conference while occasionally punching up against Ohio State or Michigan. That could become harder with the arrival of USC, Oregon and Washington.

    Illinois: -2

    This program has struggled to find its footing for more than two decades, and nothing about this new world helps it. If anything, it will be tougher. Right out of the gate, the Illini face Penn State, Michigan and Oregon this season.

    Indiana: -2

    The good news: no more getting clobbered by Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the Big Ten East. The bad news: Indiana, long known for apathy in football, is not likely to be as flush in NIL money as most of its competitors.

    USC: -2

    While it didn’t play like one for most of the past 15 years, USC was the most prestigious program in its former conference. In the Big Ten, it will be, at best, the third banana to Ohio State and Michigan, and possibly fifth behind Penn State and Oregon.

    Washington: -2

    The Huskies were the class of the Pac-12 the last two seasons, but it helped not to have an Ohio State or Michigan in their league. Now they have both, plus USC, Oregon and Penn State. Will the brief Kalen DeBoer era go down as an outlier?

    Minnesota: -3

    It’s unfortunate for the Golden Gophers that they have yet to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, because now it may never happen. A Playoff berth is not impossible, but Minnesota has had one top-10 season in the past 60 years.

    Northwestern: -3

    The new world may not be kind to overachiever programs like Northwestern. While it regularly makes bowl games and posts occasional Top 25 seasons, it has not finished high enough to make a 12-team CFP since 1996.

    Purdue: -3

    Not likely to contend for Playoff berths whether the field is four or 12. Purdue’s goal is to get to bowl games, and reaching six wins becomes harder without the benefit of a Big Ten West schedule.

    Iowa: -4

    The Hawkeyes have made a living out of grinding out mediocre Big Ten West foes while losing 42-3 to Michigan or 54-10 to Ohio State. In an 18-team league with no more unbalanced divisions and three incoming Top-25 recruiting schools, Iowa could be in for a reckoning.

    UCLA: -4

    Almost nothing about the new world does the Bruins any favors. UCLA is a basketball school whose donors have done little to support football’s NIL efforts. It is joining a conference full of big brands and football-first fan bases. Not a recipe for success.

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    Maryland in the Big Ten: From ‘what are we doing?’ to ‘amazing decision’

    Big 12

    BYU: +5

    The Cougars have finally climbed the mountaintop after spending their entire history either in a non-power conference or as an independent. They now have direct access to the CFP, and won’t finish ranked 16th with just one loss, as happened in 2020.

    Cincinnati: +4

    The Bearcats’ dream season in 2021 does not have to be an aberration going forward, as they won’t have to go undefeated to make the Playoff. And power-conference status should help them land more recruits in their fertile city and state.

    Houston: +4

    After nearly 30 years in the post-Southwest Conference wilderness, the Cougars are back in a major conference alongside old rivals Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU. But achieving consistent success in the Big 12 is hardly a given after up-and-downs in the AAC.

    UCF: +4

    Like BYU, Cincinnati and Houston, UCF got its Power 4 life raft, and it’s not like the Knights were struggling beforehand. They’ve reached three BCS/CFP bowl games since 2013. The only question is how they’ll fare as a geographic outlier in the new Big 12.

    Baylor: +2

    Since 2013, the Bears have won three Big 12 titles and reached four BCS bowls but have fallen short of reaching the CFP. In a 12-team field, all of those teams would make it. And that was with Texas and Oklahoma in the conference.

    Kansas State: +2

    K-State could thrive in the new world. It would have made the 12-team CFP four times since 2011. It has sneaky-good NIL support. The biggest challenge will be revenue-sharing. Only three public Power 5 schools made less in 2022.

    Oklahoma State: +2

    Mike Gundy has fielded eight double-digit win teams, all of which would have been 12-team CFP contenders. Most of those teams lost to Oklahoma, against which Gundy is 4-15. The Cowboys no longer have to deal with the Sooners.

    TCU: +2

    The Frogs would have made a 12-team field three times since 2014, and, thanks to the Metroplex, they have the highest recruiting ceiling among the holdovers.

    Colorado: +1

    Anything would be better than the Buffs’ abysmal 13-year tenure in the Pac-12. The Buffs get back into the Texas footprint, which they benefitted from in the old Big 12. But the school still faces an uphill climb in the NIL world, with or without Deion Sanders.

    Texas Tech: +1

    The Red Raiders have largely flailed since the late Mike Leach’s 2009 ouster, but it’s not for lack of resources and fan support. Getting out from under Texas could help, and while CFP berths might be infrequent, they’re attainable.

    Iowa State: 0

    The Cyclones, who have not won a conference championship since 1912, will still have all the same evergreen challenges. They could benefit from a more level version of the Big 12, but they’ll still have to perpetually overachieve.

    Kansas: 0

    The same Iowa State blurb can be applied to Kansas, which has finished ranked roughly once per decade. An expanded Playoff gives the Jayhawks slightly more hope for glory, but 2007 seasons may remain incredibly rare.

    Utah: -1

    Utah enters its new league as strong as any of its programs, but man, did the Utes have a good thing going in the Pac-12. Not only did they reach four league title games in five years, but they could lord their Power 5 membership over rival BYU. No more.

    West Virginia: -1

    The Mountaineers have lost a great deal of their identity since leaving the old Big East for the Big 12 in 2012, and the further dilution of the conference won’t help. But they did at least gain their first geographic partner when Cincinnati joined.

    Arizona: -2

    Joining the Big 12 was great for Arizona basketball. Probably not so much for football, where it has little in common with schools in football-crazed Texas. History suggests the Wildcats will rarely contend for a spot in the Playoff.

    Arizona State: -3

    ASU president Michael Crow had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the Big 12. The pro-market school has little in common with the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, which, unlike the Sun Devils, have rabid fan bases.

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    SEC

    Alabama: +4

    I don’t expect post-Nick Saban Alabama to make a 12-team CFP nearly every single year, like I do Ohio State, simply because of the depth of the SEC. But it’s still one of a small handful of programs built to succeed in any era.

    Georgia: +4

    Now, even Georgia’s “down” seasons might still end in CFP berths. Kirby Smart would currently have seven straight, up from three in eight seasons. Between Smart and Mark Richt, the Bulldogs would have 13 since 2001.

    LSU: +3

    The Tigers have won three national championships this century, but they might have played for even more were there a 12-team field. They would have made nine by now. Of course, they may also fire coaches more frequently for missing the Playoff.

    Texas: +3

    Unlike rival Oklahoma, Texas has won just three conference titles this century, so that shouldn’t be the measuring stick. But Mack Brown showed what the ceiling can be. He would have reached eight 12-team CFPs in a decade.

    Florida: +2

    Florida must play Georgia every year while mixing in Texas and Oklahoma. But a 12-team Playoff could prove a godsend; the Gators would have made the postseason three consecutive times under Dan Mullen and 10 times since 2000.

    Ole Miss: +2

    Ole Miss has not won the SEC since 1963. Oklahoma and Texas won’t make it any easier. But the program can make the 12-team CFP, and its NIL collective has become one of the models in the sport.

    Tennessee: 0

    The Vols are still playing rivals Alabama, Florida and Georgia for the next two seasons while adding Oklahoma. That’s rough. But Tennessee’s collective is strong, and it has the resources and recruiting cachet to reach occasional CFPs.

    Auburn: -1

    A drawing of the history of Auburn football arcs like a roller coaster, with brief spurs of national supremacy mixed in between long stretches of middle-of-the-pack. And the league just added two more above-the-middle historical programs.

    Missouri: -1

    Missouri would have reached 12-team fields in 2007, 2013 and 2023. That development is good. But the Tigers have benefitted at times from being in the SEC’s easier division, which is now gone, and they are .250 all-time against Oklahoma and Texas.

    Arkansas: -2

    On the bright side, Arkansas gets old rival Texas back. On the downside, the Razorbacks have yet to win the SEC in its 32 years of membership, and it’s not getting easier. They would have reached a 12-team CFP three times in those 32 years.

    Texas A&M: -2

    The best thing the Aggies had going for them in the SEC was that Texas wasn’t in it. Alas. The return of annual matchups with the Longhorns should be fantastic for entertainment purposes but could make for a tougher schedule.

    Kentucky: -3

    Mark Stoops is on track to have a statue sculpted for taking the Wildcats to eight straight bowl games, but those Gator and Music City bowls might not feel as significant in the new world. They also may become harder to reach with no SEC East.

    Mississippi State: -3

    The Bulldogs have finished above .500 in SEC play this century just once, in 2014 with Dak Prescott. The SEC getting bigger, and possibly moving to nine conference games, is likely to be unkind for State.

    Oklahoma: -3

    From 1938-2021, the Sooners claimed a Big 8/Big 12 championship in 47 of those 83 seasons. No major program in the country has more league titles. Realistically, OU will not come close to enjoying that level of dominance in the SEC.

    South Carolina: -3

    Save for that one three-year peak under Steve Spurrier from 2011-13, the Gamecocks have rarely lived in the top half of the SEC. Now they’re losing the SEC East. It will become even more difficult to maintain relevance.

    Vanderbilt: -4

    Vanderbilt was already stuck playing the worst cards in the SEC deck. Now there’s a whole new set of challenges stacked against their deck: the bigger SEC, the importance of NIL and roster poaching from the portal.

    The rest

    Notre Dame: +2

    Some might fixate on the fact that the independent Fighting Irish can never get a first-round bye in the new system, but that misses the larger point: They could reach many more CFPs. They would have made five in Brian Kelly’s 12 seasons.

    Oregon State and Washington State: -5

    There’s no sugarcoating it: Two historic Power 5 programs have been relegated to de facto Group of 5 status, playing de facto Mountain West schedules. And unlike actual G5 schools, they have no guaranteed access to the Playoff.

    All Group of 5 programs: -3

    For the first time in history, one of these schools is guaranteed to compete for a national championship every year. But that does not offset the further irrelevance — nor the pain of Power 4 schools poaching all of their best players.

    Bigger takeaways

    1. As usual, the biggest changes to the sport almost always mostly benefit the “big boys” the most. Outside of the former G5 programs moving up, the biggest beneficiaries are the Alabamas, Georgias and Ohio States of the sport. There are, however, a few exceptions: Oklahoma and USC fall into the “be careful what you wish for” category.
    2. And while the Big 12 is currently scrounging for any additional penny it can raise, no conference had a higher percentage of on-field gainers. That’s because Playoff berths are now attainable for the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas State and TCU.
    3. Only two of the former Pac-12 schools (Oregon and Colorado) got a positive score, as most are entering their new conferences begrudgingly. It will never not be stupefying to think about how Pac-12 leadership screwed it up so badly.

    (Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Sam Wasson, Kevin C. Cox, Scott Taetsch, Brett Deering / Getty)

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  • Men’s college basketball Top 25: Alabama, Gonzaga, Houston lead updated rankings

    Men’s college basketball Top 25: Alabama, Gonzaga, Houston lead updated rankings

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    After the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline passed on Wednesday night, we finally have a clearer picture of what rosters will look like when the season starts in November.

    This transfer portal season has been as crazy as ever, and a lot has changed since we last did this exercise on championship night. It’s possible that a few of these teams will make some late portal additions or sign an overseas prospect or two, but today marks the first day when putting out a super-early Top 25 actually makes sense. So here it is, starting with a No. 1 team that is very much there because of the last-second withdrawal decision by a star player.

    Previous rank: 6

    Projected starters: Mark Sears, Chris Youngblood (transfer), Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Grant Nelson, Clifford Omoruyi (transfer)

    Top reserves: Aden Holloway (transfer), Derrion Reid (freshman), Jarin Stevenson, Houston Mallette (transfer), Aiden Sherrill (freshman), Mouhamed Dioubate, Naas Cunningham (freshman), Labaron Philon (freshman)

    Nate Oats has assembled the best 3-point shooting team in the country. In addition to Sears and Wrightsell, he signed three transfer guards who all made 50-plus 3s last season, and two of the three (Youngblood and Mallette) shot 40-plus percent from 3. Oats also improved his defense with former Rutgers center Omoruyi, who anchored the fifth-ranked defense in college hoops, and he signed four top-40 freshmen. This is a ridiculously deep roster with arguably the best offensive weapon in the country (Sears) and enviable athleticism and positional size. Alabama’s defense has teeter-tottered between elite and mediocre the last four years with adjusted defensive ranks of third, 92nd, third and 111th. So the Crimson Tide are due to be good on that end again. That’s the only real question mark here, because we know this team will have no problem scoring.

    2. Gonzaga

    Previous: 2

    Projected starters: Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, Steele Venters, Ben Gregg, Graham Ike

    Top reserves: Braden Huff, Michael Ajayi (transfer), Khalif Battle (transfer), Dusty Stromer

    Gonzaga returns four of five starters and gets back Venters, the 2022-23 Big Sky Player of the Year who missed last season with a torn ACL. Last year, the Zags took off when Mark Few moved Gregg into the starting lineup at the three. Few has the lineup versatility to go big again if that’s what’s best. Huff would start for most high-major programs. Gonzaga’s bench might just be good enough to form a top-25 team by itself. Battle averaged 26.7 points over his last nine games at Arkansas; Stromer shot 36.6 percent from 3 as a freshman and started 14 games; Ajayi averaged 17.2 points and shot 47 percent from 3 at Pepperdine; and Braeden Smith, who is redshirting, was the Patriot League player of the year at Colgate. Like Alabama, the Zags need to improve on defense, but this is another team that should score easily. Few has smartly surrounded Ike with floor spacers to give him room to feast in the post.

    Previous: 3

    Projected starters: Milos Uzan (transfer), LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, J’Wan Roberts, Ja’Vier Francis

    Top reserves: Joseph Tugler, Terrance Arceneaux, Ramon Walker, Mercy Miller (freshman), Chase McCarty (freshman)

    When Tugler suffered a season-ending foot injury on Feb. 27, Houston was the best team in college hoops, according to metrics, and clearly the best defensive team. Houston’s adjusted defensive efficiency was 84.6; the next best was Iowa State at 89.9. The Cougars lost their most important player in Jamal Shead, but the rest of the rotation is back. Uzan has already proven to be a quality Big 12 guard at Oklahoma, and Houston’s only real issue late in the year was depth. Tugler and Arceneaux give a huge boost there. They’re the best two pro prospects on the team. Kelvin Sampson would probably tell you he has seven starters. Also worth noting: Houston has won 30-plus games three straight seasons, and that followed a Final Four run. Always bet on Sampson.

    Previous: 7

    Projected starters: Dajuan Harris Jr., Rylan Griffen (transfer), AJ Storr (transfer), KJ Adams, Hunter Dickinson

    Top reserves: Zeke Mayo (transfer), Elmarko Jackson, Flory Bidunga (freshman), Zach Clemence, Rakease Passmore (freshman), Jamari McDowell

    The Jayhawks looked like a team from another era last season. When they were playing well, their ball movement was exquisite, and they ran beautiful offense. But it was hard to sustain without enough shooting and a perimeter scorer who could create his own. It was only the third time in Bill Self’s tenure that KU ranked outside the top 40 in adjusted offense. That’s where the transfers come in. Self addressed the playmaking and shooting problem with Griffen, Storr and Mayo. Self also has more lineup versatility with big wings like Griffen and Storr who can man the four in smaller lineups, and then a more athletic backup five in Bidunga to take over when Dickinson is struggling guarding ball screens. This is still somewhat of a throwback startling lineup with a non-shooter like Adams at the four, but the roster construction makes more sense on paper.


    Tamin Lipsey leads an Iowa State team with high expectations. (Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)

    5. Iowa State

    Previous: 4

    Projected starters: Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson (transfer), Dishon Jackson (transfer)

    Top reserves: Curtis Jones, Nate Heise (transfer), Demarion Watson, Brandton Chatfield, Nojus Indrusaitis (freshman), Dwayne Pierce (freshman)

    The best defense in college basketball last season should be back near the top, as three starters return and T.J. Otzelberger replaces the other two with strong defenders in Jefferson and Jackson. Saint Mary’s had the No. 7 defense last season with Jefferson in the lineup, per Bart Torvik. And Otzelberger has proven he can build elite defenses, finishing top 10 in adjusted defense in his first three years in Ames. The Cyclones are going to guard. Otzelberger also has been nails at finding underrated transfers who thrive in his system. Last year it was Gilbert and Jones. We can probably expect that Jackson, Heise and Chatfield will surpass expectations. This will be the first time Otzelberger’s Cyclones will have to deal with lofty preseason expectations, but it seems like he has the type of culture that will not let that poison their egos.

    6. Duke

    Previous: 1

    Projected starters: Caleb Foster, Tyrese Proctor, Mason Gillis (transfer), Cooper Flagg (freshman), Khaman Maluach (freshman)

    Top reserves: Maliq Brown (transfer), Kon Knueppel (freshman), Isaiah Evans (freshman), Darren Harris (freshman), Patrick Ngongba II (freshman), Sion James (transfer)

    Jon Scheyer seemed to be trying to bring in complementary players out of the portal, building around the talents of Flagg with low-usage, high-efficiency guys like Gillis, Brown and James. It wouldn’t be shocking if this is the best team in college basketball based on the talent level. With so much youth, I want to see it first. But Scheyer will likely bring two five-stars off the bench in Evans and Knueppel while starting two projected lottery picks in the frontcourt. This team could be elite defensively, as Proctor found his calling on that end last year and both Flagg and Maluach project as high-level shot blockers. Duke has great positional size, with everyone in the rotation at 6-foot-5 or taller. Flagg is the key to the offense. He needs to be able to score and allow Duke to play through him to set up others, similar to how Scheyer used Kyle Filipowski. Leaning on freshmen only works when those are top-end lottery picks. Scheyer is banking on Flagg living up to the hype.

    7. Connecticut

    Previous: 5

    Projected starters: Hassan Diarra, Aidan Mahaney (transfer), Solomon Ball, Alex Karaban, Samson Johnson

    Top reserves: Tarris Reed Jr. (transfer), Liam McNeeley (freshman), Jaylin Stewart, Jayden Ross, Ahmad Nowell (freshman), Isaiah Abraham (freshman)

    We’re at the point now where you just assume Dan Hurley’s plan will work. He has nailed roster construction the last few years and built offensive and defensive schemes ideal for his talent. Adding shooting this spring with Mahaney and McNeeley was huge, and Karaban decided to return for a run at a three-peat. Hurley’s offense hums when the Huskies can hunt early 3s and they have optimal floor spacing. That’s not the specialty of sophomores Ball, Stewart and Ross. For UConn to hit its ceiling, Mahaney needs to play to his potential. Diarra is more of a complementary guard, and Mahaney basically replicated his freshman season this past year when it was expected he’d make a star’s leap. He replaces the off-the-dribble playmaking from Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer, and that’s why his success is so important. Hurley has again set it up so his centers can split time and give opponents two different looks. This roster doesn’t appear as talented as the last two, but underrating UConn early has also become a yearly tradition.

    Previous: 8

    Projected starters: Zakai Zeigler, Jahmai Mashack, Chaz Lanier (transfer), Igor Milicic Jr. (transfer), Felix Okpara (transfer)

    Top reserves: Jordan Gainey, Darlinstone Dubar (transfer), JP Estrella, Cameron Carr, Cade Phillips, Bishop Boswell (freshman)

    Tennessee has been a top-five seed for six straight NCAA Tournaments and plugged any potential holes in the portal. We know this team is going to be elite defensively, because Rick Barnes constructs rosters with defense in mind. The question mark is on the offensive end and replacing Dalton Knecht. That’s likely by committee, but the hope is that North Florida transfer Lanier can step into the go-to guy role. Lanier is coming off a season in which he averaged 19.7 points and shot 44 percent from 3. Zeigler was one of the best two-way point guards in the country the second half of the season and is one of the best setup men in the country, so the ball will likely be in his hands a lot. And this roster has even more shooting than it did a year ago with guys like Lanier, Darlingstone and Gainey all considered knockdown shooters. The wildcard on this roster is Carr. His body wasn’t quite ready as a freshman, but he’s got the tools to be a star. The Vols are so deep on the perimeter that he doesn’t need to be that yet, but a breakout sophomore season could be in the works.

    Previous: 11

    Projected starters: Jaden Bradley, Caleb Love, KJ Lewis, Trey Townsend (transfer), Motiejus Krivas

    Top reserves: Tobe Awaka (transfer), Anthony Dell’Orso (transfer), Carter Bryant (freshman), Emmanuel Stephen (freshman)

    Arizona had the 10th-best defense in college basketball last season and could be even better this year. The Wildcats upgrade on the defensive end with Krivas and Bradley in for the departed Oumar Ballo and Kylan Boswell. Arizona was 20 points per 100 possessions better with Bradley on the floor without Boswell compared to when Boswell played without Bradley, per CBB Analytics. The return of Love is the big story here. He was much more efficient in an Arizona uniform than he was at UNC, and Tommy Lloyd has enough around him that he doesn’t have to go into hero mode. The addition of Trey Townsend gives Arizona more offensive punch from the four spot. Lloyd loves to play fast, and this roster is built to do so.

    Previous: 10

    Projected starters: JP Pegues (transfer), Miles Kelly (transfer), Denver Jones, Johni Broome, Dylan Cardwell

    Top reserves: Chad Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford (freshman), Jahki Howard (freshman), Chaney Johnson, Chris Moore, Ja’Heim Hudson (transfer)

    Auburn returns three of its top four leading scorers from a team that finished fourth at KenPom. The big returner here is Broome, who was one of the most effective big men in the country. Bruce Pearl leaned heavily on his depth last season and will likely do so again, but the one guy who may log heavy minutes is Broome, who will play at both the four and five with Jaylin Williams no longer around. Broome and Cardwell logged only 12 minutes together last season, per CBB Analytics, but they’ll likely start alongside each other this season. Kelly, Georgia Tech’s leading scorer last season, gives the Tigers another consistent scorer on the perimeter. Auburn could elevate into a top-five team if the point guard play is better and not as inconsistent as it has been in recent years. The Tigers addressed that in recruiting by landing Pegues, who averaged 18.4 points and 4.8 assists at Furman, and Pettiford, the second-ranked point guard in the 2024 class.

    11. Texas A&M

    Previous: 21

    Projected starters: Wade Taylor IV, Zhuric Phelps (transfer), Manny Obaseki, Solomon Washington, Pharrel Payne (transfer)

    Top reserves: Andersson Garcia, Jace Carter, C.J. Wilcher (transfer), Henry Coleman III, Hayden Hefner, Andre Mills (freshman)

    When Buzz Williams moved Obaseki into the starting lineup with eight games to go, the Aggies became one of the best teams in the country. They won six of eight and ranked as the fifth-best team over that timespan, per Torvik, and ended up losing to top-seeded Houston in overtime. Tyrece Radford, a big part of that run, is gone, but Williams brought in another athletic attacking guard to replace him in Phelps. Payne, who will likely start at center, is an upgrade from what A&M had at that position, and he fits perfectly with this group. He was Minnesota’s best offensive rebounder — ranking 67th nationally — and with Garcia, Washington and Coleman back, the Aggies will likely once again lead the country in offensive rebounding rate. That allowed A&M to still have a good offense during a horrible shooting year, but the shooting should get better. Taylor is bound to shoot it better, and A&M added some shooting off the bench with Wilcher, who made 50 3s and shot 39.4 percent for Nebraska last season.


    RJ Davis is back after earning first-team All-America honors. (Greg Fiume / Getty Images)

    12. North Carolina

    Previous: 9

    Projected starters: Elliot Cadeau, RJ Davis, Ian Jackson (freshman), Cade Tyson (transfer), Jalen Washington

    Top reserves: Seth Trimble, Ven-Allen Lubin (transfer), Drake Powell (freshman), Jae’Lyn Withers, Zayden High

    North Carolina is going to be different without a low-post threat like Armando Bacot on the blocks, but the loss that stings is Harrison Ingram staying in the NBA Draft. Ingram was a Swiss Army knife for the Tar Heels and played a big role in the massive defensive leap they made last season. The offense should still be pretty good, especially if RJ Davis can duplicate or come close to repeating last season. I’m also intrigued to see Cadeau as a sophomore. He struggled shooting the ball as a freshman but he also played a facilitating role at a pretty high level considering his age. If the shot ever comes around, that’s a high-level college point guard. Tyson, a career 44.6 percent 3-point shooter at 6-7, was a smart addition. Lubin gives them some low-post scoring either off the bench or starting at the four. There’s enough talent and experience that it’s an ideal situation for two five-stars to come into. If either Jackson or Powell plays at a one-and-done level and Cadeau makes a sophomore leap, this could be a top-five team.

    13. Purdue

    Previous: 12

    Projected starters: Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Camden Heide, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Caleb Furst

    Top reserves: Myles Colvin, Daniel Jacobsen (freshman), Will Berg, Kanon Catchings (freshman), Gicarri Harris (freshman), Raleigh Burgess (freshman), Brian Waddell

    Purdue’s KenPom finishes in the five years that proceeded the Zach Edey era: 9, 19, 5, 9, 24. It’s going to be difficult to replace Edey, but Matt Painter won a lot of basketball games before Edey showed up and he’ll continue to do so. Painter has a really good core returning, led by Smith, who became a killer in pick-and-roll last season as both a scorer and distributor. If you asked college coaches to rank the best point guards in the country, he’d be near the top. Purdue got a head start on what life without Edey would be like last summer when it went on a foreign tour without him and Kaufman-Renn led the team in scoring. Painter also has three centers on the bench who could be next in line as dominant low-post scorers. The 7-foot-2 Berg has been learning behind Edey the last two years, and then Painter signed two centers in Jacobsen and Burgess. Jacobsen was a standout last weekend at the tryouts for the U.S. U-18 team. When I asked two coaches there who stood out, both mentioned Jacobsen, with one saying he’ll eventually be a star. He’s 7-3, skilled and playing at Purdue, so odds are in his favor.

    14. Marquette

    Previous: 14

    Projected starters: Kam Jones, Stevie Mitchell, Chase Ross, David Joplin, Ben Gold

    Top reserves: Sean Jones, Tre Norman, Zaide Lowery, Al Amadou, Caedin Hamilton (redshirt freshman), Damarius Owens (freshman), Royce Parham (freshman)

    In the six games that Tyler Kolek missed late in the season, Jones averaged 20.8 points and 4.5 assists. So we’ve seen Marquette operate when it’s the Kam Jones Show, and he cooked. I’m not a big sports betting guy, but if there are futures for the 2024-25 All-America team and you can get good odds on Jones, I’d make that gamble. It’s going to be a different look without Kolek and Oso Ighodaro, but Shaka Smart keeps betting on development and it’s made him look really, well, smart. Gold started to show more as a passer his sophomore season in the Ighodaro role, and he adds shooting to the mix. Joplin should be highly motivated after a somewhat disappointing junior season that included a bad finish when he went 2-of-10 against NC State in the Sweet 16. Ross has had flashes that suggest he can be a really good college guard. The Golden Eagles will need him to take on more of an offensive role. These next two years should really show if Smart’s philosophy of staying out of the portal can work long-term, but he’s earned the benefit of the doubt so far.

    Previous: 15

    Projected starters: Jeremy Roach, Jayden Nunn, Langston Love, VJ Edgecombe (freshman), Norchad Omier (transfer)

    Top reserves: Josh Ojianwuna, Jalen Celestine (transfer), Rob Wright (freshman), Jason Asemota (freshman)

    That projected starting lineup is tiny — basically four guards and the 6-7 Omier — but it should be able to score pretty easily. Baylor has leaned heavily on the pick-and-roll game in recent years, and Roach and Omier should be a strong combination. Edgecombe is the swing guy on this team. If he’s a high-level producer right away, then the Bears have a chance to be elite offensively. The worry is whether they’ll be able to stop anyone. Omier is skilled enough to play the four, and Baylor does have a lot of size on the bench. Scott Drew could also start the 6-foot-10 Ojianwuna next to Omier and slide the 6-foot-5 Edgecombe to the three, but he’d lose some scoring. It could take some time to figure out the combinations that work, but it helps that Drew has size on the wing off the bench in Celestine (6-6) and Asemota (6-8).


    Walter Clayton Jr. pulled out of the NBA Draft and is returning to Florida. (Alan Youngblood / AP)

    16. Florida

    Previous: 19

    Projected starters: Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin (transfer), Will Richard, Sam Alexis (transfer), Alex Condon

    Top reserves: Rueben Chinyelu (transfer), Thomas Haugh, Denzel Aberdeen, Isaiah Brown (freshman)

    Florida has one of the best guard trios in the country in Clayton, Martin and Richard. All three made at least 70 3s last season and are good enough to carry an offense when they’re hot. The Gators’ issue last season was on the defensive end, and Todd Golden strengthened that by landing two shot blockers out of the portal in Alexis and Chinyelu. One of those two will likely start alongside Condon, the Aussie big man who is poised for a breakout sophomore season. Golden had his best season at San Francisco in his third year. This will be Year 3 at Florida, and I’d bet on it being his best year yet.

    Previous: Not ranked

    Projected starters: Tre Donaldson (transfer), Rubin Jones (transfer), Roddy Gayle Jr. (transfer), Danny Wolf (transfer), Vladislav Goldin (transfer)

    Top reserves: Nimari Burnett, Sam Walters (transfer), Will Tschetter, Justin Pippen (freshman), Durral Brooks (freshman)

    It’s hard to completely turn over a roster and have a cohesive group in Year 1, but this is a bet on Dusty May pulling it off. May is really good at role definition and getting his guys to buy in. The Wolverines are going to be huge, starting the 7-foot twin towers and then bringing shooters off the bench in the 6-foot-10 Walters and 6-foot-8 Tschetter. Walters can play the three, Gayle (6-4) could play the two and Jones (6-5) can play the point, so May could conceivably play one of the biggest lineups in college basketball. And you could make an argument that has the potential to be Michigan’s best lineup. May just coached the team that ranked No. 1 in minutes continuity and 276th in average height, so this will be a different challenge. But out of the total portal rebuilds, this is the one I’m betting on that the pieces fit best.

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Elijah Hawkins (transfer), Chance McMillian, Darrion Williams, JT Toppin (transfer), Fede Federiko (transfer)

    Top reserves: Kevin Overton (transfer), Kerwin Walton, Devan Cambridge, Eemeli Yalaho, Christian Anderson (freshman)

    Grant McCasland has landed the Mountain West Freshman on the Year in back-to-back portal classes, with Toppin following Williams. Both are future NBA players, and Texas Tech has one of the best 2-3-4 combinations in the country. Williams was fantastic the last two months of the season. He had a 10-game stretch when he averaged 17.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists and shot 64.2 percent from 3. Toppin gives the Red Raiders another interior scorer and should help the defense. And you could argue McMillian is an upgrade from Pop Isaacs. Isaacs could carry the Red Raiders for stretches, but his efficiency didn’t justify his usage. McMillian is a low-usage, high-efficiency player who is more athletic, a better shooter and a better defender. Hawkins slides into the Joe Toussaint role and Federiko for Warren Washington. Cambridge got a medical redshirt and provides energy off the bench, while both Overton and Walton provide shooting and scoring off the bench.

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Myles Rice (transfer), Trey Galloway, Mackenzie Mgbako, Malik Reneau, Oumar Ballo (transfer)

    Top reserves: Kanaan Carlyle (transfer), Luke Goode (transfer), Bryson Tucker (freshman), Gabe Cupps, Anthony Leal, Langdon Hatton (transfer), Rob Dockery (redshirt freshman), George Turkson (freshman)

    If going by portal rankings and name recognition, no one had a better offseason than Indiana. Mike Woodson has shown a preference for playing through the post, and he has two of the best low-post scorers in the Big Ten now in Reneau and Ballo.  Indiana had spacing issues last year, but Rice, Carlyle and Goode should help. Rice (27.5 percent) and Carlyle (32 percent) did not shoot the ball well from 3 as freshmen, but both are good foul shooters and it’s within reason to expect progression from deep based on their mechanics and skill. Both should also help in the shot creation department, which was an issue for the Hoosiers last year. Overall, Indiana is just way more talented and deep. Cupps, who started last year, might be sixth in line on IU’s depth chart at guard. All that guard depth also will allow IU some lineup versatility. When one of the bigs goes to the bench, Mgbako can slide to the four and get more shooting and skill on the floor. It’s a huge year for Woodson. Based on this class, Indiana’s donors are coming through financially, but that could quickly change if results don’t follow.

    20. Illinois

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Kylan Boswell (transfer), Kasparas Jakucionis (freshman), Ty Rodgers, Carey Booth (transfer), Tomislav Ivisic (freshman)

    Top reserves: Tre White (transfer), Ben Humrichous (transfer), Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, Jake Davis (transfer), Morez Johnson (freshman)

    This could look like a reach to put Illinois this high, but Brad Underwood has earned the trust. Underwood has prioritized size and skill, and this roster is oozing with upside. Underwood got busy in the portal early and then topped off his class with two international signings whom I’m projecting will both start. Jakucionis, a 6-5 guard, is one of the best young prospects overseas. An NBA scouting contact mentioned Kirk Hinrich as a comp. If Jakucionis were an American, he’d likely be one of the five-stars in this class. Ivisic, a 7-footer, is the twin brother of current Arkansas and ex-Kentucky big man Zvonimir Ivisic. Illinois also added four transfers who play the three or four and stand between 6-6 and 6-10, all of whom can shoot. And the other two freshmen, Johnson and Jason Jakstys, are 6-9 and 6-10 power forwards. Jakucionis, Boswell and Rodgers will be the keys to making it work, as Underwood has gone to a strategy of spreading the floor and leaning on his guards to create advantages. Look for all three to get a shot at continuing the booty ball offense that the Illini adopted for Marcus Domask.

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Isaiah Swope (transfer), Josiah Dotzler (transfer), Gibson Jimerson, Kalu Anya (transfer), Robbie Avila (transfer)

    Top reserves: Kobe Johnson (transfer), Larry Hughes II, A.J. Casey (transfer), Kellen Thames

    Indiana State led the nation in effective field-goal percentage last season and ranked fourth the year before; Josh Schertz was in Terre Haute for just three seasons. The man knows how to build an elite offense quickly, and he’s got a head start here with both Avila and Swope following him. Avila is, as Schertz calls him, the hub of his offense. He’s one of the most skilled, unique bigs in college basketball, and if you put just a little bit of shooting and speed around him, it’s probably going to work. Swope was Indiana State’s best scorer before knee problems slowed him midseason, and the offseason will allow him to finally get healthy. Schertz was able to convince Jimerson to take his name out of the portal, keeping one of the best shooters in the country at SLU. He’s a perfect fit for Schertz’s system. Dotzler is a player Schertz loved in high school and gets him on the rebound after struggling to crack the rotation at Creighton. Johnson gives SLU a defensive stopper on the perimeter and was a starter last season for West Virginia. He’ll likely battle Dotzler for that final starting spot on the perimeter. It’s a really good roster in the Atlantic 10, and based on Schertz and Avila’s history together, the offense should sing. The Billikens should be the preseason favorite to win the league.

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Jizzle James, Dan Skillings Jr., Simas Lukosius, Dillon Mitchell (transfer), Aziz Bandaogo

    Top reserves: Day Day Thomas, Connor Hickman (transfer), CJ Fredrick, Tyler Betsey (freshman), Tyler McKinley (freshman), Arrinten Page (transfer), Josh Reed

    Wes Miller had the 19th-best defense last season and quietly landed one of the most athletic fours in the country in Mitchell, who should make Cincy’s defense even better. It’s not going to be easy scoring in the paint against the length of Mitchell and Bandaogo, who are both pogo sticks. Mitchell was once thought to be a one-and-done, lottery-pick talent. He still has the measurables and athleticism to eventually turn into a pro, and maybe a new system and coach will help him reach his potential. The Bearcats were also in need of shooting, as Lukosius was the only real threat from deep last season once Fredrick was injured. They will benefit from Fredrick receiving a sixth year of eligibility and from Hickman, who averaged 14.5 points and shot 40.2 percent from 3 on a good Bradley team. James and Skillings both played their best ball late in the year; if they both make a leap, don’t be shocked if the Bearcats sneak into the top tier of a very deep Big 12.


    Zach Freemantle, shown here way back in 2020, should be healthy again for Xavier. (Joe Robbins / Getty Images)

    23. Xavier

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Dayvion McKnight, Dante Maddox Jr. (transfer), Ryan Conwell (transfer), Zach Freemantle, John Hugley IV (transfer)

    Top reserves: Trey Green, Dailyn Swain, Jerome Hunter, Marcus Foster (transfer), Lassina Traore (transfer), Cam’Ron Fletcher (transfer)

    Remember Freemantle? He averaged 15.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game on a team that was 17-5 and 9-2 in the Big East before he injured his foot two years ago. After two surgeries, Freemantle is healthy, and Sean Miller has surrounded him with one of the best portal classes in the country. Conwell, who averaged 16.6 points and shot 40.7 percent from 3 for Indiana State, is the up-transfer guard I have the most faith in translating to the high-major level. He has the athleticism and playmaking chops to make an impact. Miller has a good mix of playmakers and shooters on the perimeter and depth at every position.

    Previous: 25

    Projected starters: Lamont Butler (transfer), Kerr Kriisa (transfer), Koby Brea (transfer), Andrew Carr (transfer), Amari Willams (transfer)

    Top reserves: Otega Oweh (transfer), Collin Chandler (freshman), Brandon Garrison (transfer), Ansley Almonor (transfer), Travis Perry (freshman)

    It feels like Kentucky is a team full of really good complementary players without a star. But you could have said the same about BYU a year ago, and that team spent most of the year in the Top 25 and had one of the best offenses in college basketball. Mark Pope made it clear he loves shooting and landed two of the best shooters in the portal in Kriisa and Brea. Butler and Oweh give him some athleticism and defensive chops on the perimeter, and Williams and Garrison should do the same on the interior. The one guy who could end up turning into a star is Chandler, a four-star prospect in the 2022 class who spent the last two years on a mission trip. He could change the calculus. But Pope has proven himself as a strong X’s-and-O’s coach, and this is the deepest and most talented roster he’s ever had. Star or no star, this team is probably going to score the ball efficiently and win a lot of games.

    25. St. John’s

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Deivon Smith (transfer), Kadary Richmond (transfer), Aaron Scott (transfer), R.J. Luis, Vincent Iwuchukwu (transfer)

    Top reserves: Lefteris Liotopoulos (freshman), Zuby Ejiofor, Jaiden Glover (freshman), Simeon Wilcher, Brady Dunlap

    Rick Pitino landed two of the best point guards in the portal in Smith and Richmond. Both are ball-dominant guards, and it’s justified to question their fit together, but it’s also justified to bank on Pitino getting the absolute best out of them. Outside of Luis, who averaged 10.9 points after transferring from UMass last season, and Scott (11.0 points per game at North Texas) the roster is mostly unproven. But give Pitino an elite backcourt and a former highly-ranked center in Iwuchukwu, and I’m betting one of the best coaches in the history of the game will figure out a way to win. Those two guards would have been the best players on his team last season, and that group just barely missed the NCAA Tournament.

    Next up: Arkansas, UCLA, Louisville, Rutgers, Memphis, Creighton, Maryland, Saint Mary’s, Michigan State, Ohio State, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Georgia, Princeton, Texas, Providence

    (Top photos of Ryan Nembhard, Grant Nelson and Dajuan Harris Jr.: Mitchell Layton, Andy Lyons and Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

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  • Mitchell’s dunk, ex-walk-on’s 3-pointer make even a Louisville blowout worth watching

    Mitchell’s dunk, ex-walk-on’s 3-pointer make even a Louisville blowout worth watching

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    Maybe he was just angry. Only a few moments earlier, Mark Mitchell had tried to throw down a furious tomahawk dunk, taking off from a great distance after breaking the press by himself, only to run into traffic and bounce it off the back of the rim.

    When he got the ball again, under the basket this time, he didn’t mess around, even with his back to the bucket. He jumped, lifted the ball over his head and dunked it backward, the rare reverse overhead slam, a staple of practices and layup lines and dunk contests, but rarely spotted in the wild in its full plumage.

    Mitchell shrugged it off.

    “That’s not really something that’s hard for me,” Mitchell said. “I’m 6-9. I was kind of in that position and I went up with it and it worked out.”

    His teammates did not.

    “I was surprised. I didn’t think he was actually going to do that,” Duke guard Jared McCain said. “Mark, he’s such a kind-of-go-with-the-flow kind of guy, and when he brings some aggression, it’s like, ‘Oh, OK, Mark.’ It’s good to see him bring some aggression, some tenacity, to the team.”

    Duke’s Mark Mitchell (25) slams in two during Duke’s 84-59 victory over Louisville at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024.
    Duke’s Mark Mitchell (25) slams in two during Duke’s 84-59 victory over Louisville at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. Ethan Hyman ehyman@newsobserver.com

    On a night when Duke posted a workmanlike win over woeful, underachieving Louisville, the kind of game that might have made James Naismith consider a better use for those peach baskets if he knew where it was going to lead, there were a few moments of transcendent basketball beauty buried in the 84-59 muck, reminders of how beautiful the game can be even in otherwise unremarkable circumstances.

    Mitchell’s dunk was, unquestionably, one — an uncommon display of athletic ability, explosiveness and imagination. For a player who does so much for Duke, rebounding and defending and all but ensuring victory if he can get to double digits (31-3), but is often overlooked on a team with Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor and McCain, that was a moment when the spotlight was almost blinding.

    “He’s a complete player,” Duke coach Jon Scheyer said. “He does so much. I don’t know that he gets the credit that he probably should, nationally, or even in our league. When you talk about key guys I think anybody would love to have Mark Mitchell on their team.”

    Duke’s Jeremy Roach (3) and the bench celebrate after Spencer Hubbard (55) made a three-pointer during the second half of Duke’s 84-59 victory over Louisville at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024.
    Duke’s Jeremy Roach (3) and the bench celebrate after Spencer Hubbard (55) made a three-pointer during the second half of Duke’s 84-59 victory over Louisville at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. Ethan Hyman ehyman@newsobserver.com

    That moment was bookended by its basketball opposite: A late 3-pointer by 5-foot-8 former walk-on Spencer Hubbard for the third, fourth and fifth points of his career, plunging Cameron into frenzy and prompting the starters on the Duke bench to jump up and wave towels in acclimation.

    “Greatest vibe in the universe, man,” McCain said.

    That kind of moment is more common, almost a staple of these kinds of blowouts, but that made it no less appreciated, and certainly worth sticking around to the otherwise forgettable end.

    In a long season, when not every game is a rivalry or a meeting of top-25 teams, there are games that you don’t so much play as endure. Coming off Saturday’s emotional, dramatic loss at Wake Forest and everything that went with it — Duke trapped on the floor as the Wake students rushed onto the court and Filipowski helped off injured, although he emerged unscathed and played 29 of the first 34 minutes Wednesday — this game against the ACC’s worst team didn’t come imbued with a lot of sizzle.

    There are inevitably a lot of games like that, the nature of a 20-game schedule in a conference that isn’t anchored by mutual dislike the way it once was. (Maryland, we hardly knew ye.) Avoiding a letdown over the course of three months is a skill that has to be practiced and honed, just like free throws or breaking the press.

    Duke’s Mark Mitchell (25) slams in two during the second half of Duke’s 84-59 victory over Louisville at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024.
    Duke’s Mark Mitchell (25) slams in two during the second half of Duke’s 84-59 victory over Louisville at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. Ethan Hyman ehyman@newsobserver.com

    Duke’s road to D.C. is brutal: Virginia, at N.C. State, North Carolina. This was the last game of anything less than great consequence Duke will play this season. The long and difficult march to … March is finally over.

    It helps when there are moments along the way, buried like sea glass in the sand, that suddenly catch the light and dazzle. Mitchell’s dunk was that Wednesday. So was Hubbard’s first career 3-pointer. Maybe even more so. They lead you on to the next game like breadcrumbs. They lead you to the ACC tournament, and the NCAA tournament, and everything that makes the long season worthwhile.

    Never miss a Luke DeCock column. Sign up at tinyurl.com/lukeslatest to have them delivered directly to your email inbox as soon as they post.

    Luke DeCock’s Latest: Never miss a column on the Canes, ACC or other Triangle sports

    This story was originally published February 28, 2024, 10:26 PM.

    Related stories from Raleigh News & Observer

    Sports columnist Luke DeCock joined The News & Observer in 2000 and has covered seven Final Fours, the Summer Olympics, the Super Bowl and the Carolina Hurricanes’ Stanley Cup. He is a past president of the U.S. Basketball Writers Association, was the 2020 winner of the National Headliner Award as the country’s top sports columnist and has twice been named North Carolina Sportswriter of the Year.

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  • Kenny Payne returned to save Louisville. Now a school and a city wonder what's next

    Kenny Payne returned to save Louisville. Now a school and a city wonder what's next

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    LOUISVILLE — Kenny Payne sounded like a man looking for hope in a hard reality. His Louisville basketball team came close, so painstakingly close, to finally doing it — winning one of those games upon which corners are turned. Instead, No. 19 Texas pulled away late, handing Payne his 30th loss in 36 games as coach of the Cardinals. This was four weeks ago, what, in hindsight, feels like four years ago.

    Payne settled in for a postgame news conference at Madison Square Garden. There was a certain optimism to him that Sunday afternoon. He nodded and offered a knowing gaze. “It’s only going to get better,” he said. “It’s not going to get worse.”

    It was difficult to imagine then how wrong he was.

    The Cards lost to Indiana the next day. Then, uncomfortable home wins over New Mexico State and Bellarmine in a near-empty KFC Yum! Center. A loss at Virginia Tech. Another at DePaul, one of the few programs supposedly worse off than Louisville. Then, a home loss to Arkansas State. (Not Arkansas. Arkansas State.) Last weekend, a three-game skid was snapped with a win over Pepperdine.

    That’s been the story on the court. Off the court, the place has come to feel like some cruel thought experiment on the long-term effects of fatalism. Fans are apoplectic. Program alumni are mortified. New embarrassments seem to come by the week. Most recently, fans went from talking about why freshman guard Ty-Laur Johnson sat out to start a game because he didn’t have his leggings to wondering what led to junior guard Koron Davis’ dismissal.

    Louisville, as one proud former player puts it, is “utterly unrecognizable.”

    It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Payne returned to Louisville in March 2022 as a beloved alum. Beowulf, reclaiming his land to slay the dragons of this program’s recent past — the NCAA, the messy end of Chris Mack’s tenure, the cloud of Rick Pitino, the sordid headlines, the vacated wins, the dark days. All that would recede into memory as Louisville returned to glory.

    But Payne, who wasn’t made available to The Athletic during a recent visit, went 4-28 in Year 1. Now he’s 5-6 in Year 2. The negativity surrounding the program is unmatched in college basketball. Most of it’s warranted. Some of it’s hyperbolic. Such toxicity turns every missed shot into a manifesto on the program’s future.

    What’s most uncomfortable, though, is the seeming universal acceptance that sweeping changes are a foregone conclusion. That Louisville, operating as a bastardized version of a program with 10 Final Fours and three national titles (no matter what the NCAA record book says), is already past a point of no return with Kenny Payne.

    At no time might that be clearer than this Thursday. Everyone knows what’s coming. The Yum! is about to turn blue as thousands of Kentucky fans take over the building for the annual rivalry game. It will be a sight no one can ignore, and the ultimate question again will be asked.

    Where do the Cards go from here?


    Touching down on one of the two runways at Bowman Field, the small airport southeast of downtown Louisville, Kenny Payne stepped out of a private plane and into an American dream. It was March 17, 2022. Denny Crum, his former coach, had lived long enough to see one of his own inherit his program. The 85-year-old waited on the tarmac alongside Wade Houston, another Cardinal legend and Payne mentor, both men smiling. Lowering his head, Payne ducked his 6-foot-8 frame through the plane door, inhaled a familiar air, hugged them both and waved to fans along a perimeter fence line.

    This is what so many wanted. Louisville’s post-Pitino world was one of lost identity. Program alum David Padgett admirably navigated the tumult of 2017-18 as interim coach but wasn’t trendy enough to be the school’s long-term option. Chris Mack was the hottest name on the market, so Louisville went and got him. The marriage was hailed nationally as a can’t-miss hire in March 2018. Twenty-one months later, Mack coached the No. 1-ranked Cards to a home win over No. 4 Michigan in front of 21,674 packed shoulder-to-shoulder in December 2019.

    This was a new era.

    Until it wasn’t.

    Mack didn’t make it to the end of Year 4 in his seven-year contract, getting pushed out 14 games into the 2021-22 season amid another NCAA investigation and player discontent. Another ugly ending. Another round of preposterous headlines. (Seriously, what other program has had two head coaches entangled in extortion cases?)

    Many around Louisville say that then-interim athletic director Josh Heird had little choice in the 2022 coaching search. Trustees, ex-players, boosters — most wanted Payne. Louisville is a place where the streets go backward, where some loyalists and ex-players are still upset Crum was forced into retirement in 2001, and others still regularly relitigate Pitino’s various cause célèbres. The school needed someone to tie its binds.

    Payne, 57, was born and raised in southeast Mississippi but is a son of Louisville. He was a freshman on Crum’s 1986 national championship team. He played with legends Billy Thompson, Milt Wagner and Pervis Ellison. He led the program to the Sweet 16 in 1988 and ’89. He carried all imaginable Card credentials and had a coaching résumé to go with them. Payne honed his recruiting chops for years as an assistant coach at Oregon and Kentucky, then sharpened his coaching prowess with a few seasons in the NBA.

    This was the right man at the right time for Louisville. More impactfully, Payne stood as the first Black head coach for a program with a long history of racial barrier-breaking. The size and scale of his hiring wasn’t lost on him.

    “It’s bigger than me,” Payne told The Athletic in October 2022. “That’s the best way to say it: It’s bigger than me. It’s a lot.”

    That was only 14 months ago.


    Today’s version of college basketball, with its transfer portal and its Name, Image and Likeness jockeying, comes with an inherent stress of assembling talent as fast as possible and winning games now, not later. Louisville saw Payne as a tap to a keg of all readily available talent. His 10-year tenure at Kentucky turned him into a near-mythic figure. He was critical in landing and developing Anthony Davis and other five-star future NBA lottery picks. He coached nine big men who were drafted in the lottery, including two No. 1 overall picks. He was best friends with basketball’s ultimate power broker — William “Worldwide” Wesley. NBA All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns once called Payne “the horse beneath the jockey driving Kentucky basketball.”

    The math was easy. If Payne did that at Kentucky, imagine what he’d do on his own horse in Louisville.

    Immediately after the hiring, several top-rated recruits were suddenly rumored to be heavily interested in Louisville. In May 2022, Payne hired Milt Wagner, his former teammate and U of L luminary, as the program’s director of player development and alumni relations. Wagner’s grandson, D.J., happened to be the No. 1 recruit in the country at the time.

    The flood of talent to Louisville felt all but imminent.

    But things aren’t so simple.

    Payne’s first recruiting class, cobbled together late, ranked a respectable 26th in the 247Sports Composite rankings but lacked a top-50 prospect. He mined the portal for two pieces, notably Tennessee transfer Brandon Huntley-Hatfield. But it wasn’t enough. The Cards’ 2022-23 roster, with a handful of returnees, had 10 scholarship players. They won four games. Losses included an exhibition to Division II Lenoir-Rhyne and regular-season upsets by Bellarmine, Wright State, Appalachian State and Lipscomb. They went 2-18 in the ACC and finished 290th in KenPom’s ratings. The next closest high-major was California at 270.

    On top of the losses, things soured through Year 1 as, one by one, all that rumored incoming five-star talent went elsewhere. D.J. Wagner not only declined Louisville’s scholarship but also committed to Kentucky.

    What’s gone wrong? Theories abound among those in grassroots basketball. About Payne spending his entire coaching career at Nike schools (Oregon and Kentucky) and now being under the Adidas umbrella. About Payne and assistant coaches Danny Manning, Nolan Smith and Josh Jamieson not pounding the pavement. Whatever the reason, the flood hasn’t come.

    Seven scholarship players entered the transfer portal in Payne’s first offseason, including three captains. Then came a more significant loss. Trentyn Flowers, a five-star recruit who reclassified to enroll early at Louisville and headlined the Cards’ five-player 2023 recruiting class, opted out of his commitment. He did so after practicing with the team for weeks last summer. A potential starter, Flowers left the program on Aug. 14 and signed with the Adelaide 36ers of the National Basketball League in Australia.

    The 2023-24 Louisville roster would feature nine new players, including key sophomore transfers Skyy Clark (Illinois) and Tre White (USC) and a freshman class that, despite Flowers’ departure, ranked No. 6 by 247Sports. Most agreed the roster was upgraded.

    Eight current Louisville players entered college as top-100 players in 247Sports Composite recruiting rankings. Four of them — Huntley-Hatfield, Dennis Evans, Clark and White — ranked in the top 50. The Cards are exceedingly young, though. The roster includes nine freshmen and sophomores. Payne’s team ranks 301st in the country in DI experience, averaging 1.19 years. The only other high-major programs with less experience are UCLA and Notre Dame.

    It was a year late, but, even without an influx of five-stars, this is what Louisville theoretically signed up for with Payne. Accumulate young talent, go through some growing pains, rebuild the program and climb back to the top of the ACC in a few years.

    Luke Hancock, the hero of Louisville’s 2013 national title and now an analyst for ACC Network, says he sees “some pieces of what could be a good team” and wonders, if this group stayed mostly intact, grew a year older, added a top recruit or two and a couple veteran transfers, what might that look like?

    “It’s not that I’m grasping at straws here,” Hancock says. “There are real positives. It ​​could be dramatically better going into Year 3. But are Louisville fans going to give them enough time for all that to really come to fruition? It doesn’t seem like it.”

    Therein lies the rub. In only 14 months, things went so bad, so fast, that few are willing to see where this will go. If this were Year 1, maybe some would be willing to ride things out.

    But it is not Year 1.

    Losing is one thing. Being embarrassed is another.


    Koron Davis could be seen right out in the open. Some fans recognized the 6-foot-7 guard from the program’s annual preseason scrimmage. Now he was sitting in the Yum! stands.

    Nothing made sense. Davis was recruited to bolster the Louisville backcourt. He played junior college ball at Paris (Texas) Community College and Los Angeles Southwest College, and committed to the Cards in January 2023 after Payne visited him in LA. He was considered a nice pickup and a potential contributor.

    But Davis has never suited up for a game. Payne delivered cryptic explanations. He said Davis was not in trouble, and was still part of the team, but was told not to come to games. Rumors swirled that he’d been involved in a practice confrontation with Payne.

    Things turned more bizarre on Dec. 13. Louisville issued a statement announcing Davis was transferring, marking an abrupt end to the saga. Except then Davis, who posted a picture of his first-semester report card on social media that same morning, refuted the tweet, saying, “I never asked to transfer.”

    Louisville issued a second release, this time saying Davis was dismissed from the program.

    So what went wrong? In an interview with The Athletic, Davis says the practice at the root of the matter occurred in mid-November. That day, in a post-practice huddle, Payne told the group Davis bad-mouthed the team. “He told my teammates: ‘Koron said f— all y’all.’” Davis says. “Things escalated from there, but never turned physical.”

    In a separate interview with The Athletic, a current Louisville player, granted anonymity so as to corroborate events without facing repercussions from the program, confirmed Davis’ retelling of the event.

    Davis’ status with the team was limited after that day, but he was still part of the program. He maintained access to facilities, remained enrolled, and conducted occasional individual workouts with coaches. Program sources push back on the idea of a single incident being at the root of Davis’ quasi-suspension, but what’s clear is no one understood the terms.

    Teammates were confused. So were fans and media. And athletic department officials. In an already combustible equation of a coach on the hot seat and a team losing games, now came controversy.

    “It was so weird how they handled it,” the current player says.

    Davis requested a meeting with Heird and spoke to the Louisville AD on Dec. 6. Heird, who confirms this meeting, asked Davis if he wanted to remain at the school. Davis responded yes. Heird told Davis he would speak to Payne.

    Soon after, according to the current Louisville team member, some players met with Payne and the coaching staff. They advocated for Davis to rejoin the team, saying he could be a valuable player. Moreover, they said the drama surrounding the situation was distracting and could be avoided if Davis was allowed to sit on the bench. According to the current player, coaches responded by again claiming that Davis had told them he didn’t care about the team and wanted to transfer.

    Nothing was any clearer by the end of Dec. 13. Following the loss to Arkansas State, Payne offered no further explanation. Two Louisville players, Huntley-Hatfield and Clark, said they still speak to Davis and support him.

    Associate athletic director Zach Greenwell said in a statement to The Athletic on Wednesday that the university would honor Davis’ scholarship.

    “All of our head coaches are empowered to make decisions related to their rosters that they believe are in the best interest of their programs as a whole,” he said. “If Koron Davis wishes to transition from being a student-athlete to a student at the University of Louisville, he is welcome to do so and his scholarship will be honored. Should he choose to continue his basketball career elsewhere, we will support his decision and wish him nothing but the best.”

    Davis says he plans to remain enrolled at Louisville next semester, then decide where to play in 2024-25.

    The handling of the situation — from Payne’s puzzling news conferences, to the poor messaging, to the confusion of Dec. 13 — was, according to an athletic department source, roundly seen as an unnecessary debacle. While some say Payne felt Davis’ long-term future wasn’t at Louisville and wanted to help him land somewhere as a transfer, they simultaneously acknowledge the ordeal could have been dealt with more deftly.

    Some felt it marked the first time Payne’s tenure actually embarrassed the school. That this, in the big picture, was an exemplar of a program with broader issues.


    It’s another game on another night in this very uncomfortable time to be a Louisville Cardinal. Attendance is announced at over 10,000, but fewer than 5,000 dour faces dot the 22,090-seat arena. That’s inside. Outside? You know it’s bad when barstools are empty in a city built on bourbon.

    “We need a better team,” says the general manager of one neighboring establishment. “We have to get all the (bar) owners on the whole street together to start recruiting some guys.”

    The GM doesn’t want his bar named here. Might be bad for business, he says, and business is bad enough. Real estate and operating costs near the downtown arena are priced to include 18 nights of 15,000-plus crowds coming downtown for Louisville men’s basketball. Right now, the numbers are off.

    After years spent ranked among the most highly attended teams in college basketball, Louisville slipped to 22nd in average attendance last season. Average ticket sales were announced at 12,497 per game, per NCAA records. In 2019-20, the last time things were cooking around here, Louisville announced an average crowd of 16,658. That ranked seventh nationally.

    But the real problem is, the Cards aren’t drawing anywhere near what’s being announced at games. According to university records requested by The Athletic, last year’s actual through-the-gates attendance averaged 6,557 per game. Only three games drew over 9,000. The Cards’ highly successful women’s program, riding a wave of five Elite Eights and two Final Four appearances since 2018, averaged 5,269 per game.

    This year is worse for the men. The first three regular-season home dates drew 16,037, total. Or 5,435 per game. Season ticket sales have fallen from 10,501 to 9,099.

    These are numbers that put bars out of business and leave hotel rooms empty.

    They’re numbers that speak to a city missing part of its identity. Most places, a first-year homegrown football coach (Jeff Brohm) leading a program to its first-ever ACC Championship game appearance would occupy all the oxygen. Here, it’s a nice distraction. Louisville is a basketball town. It’s where this year the mayor displayed a replica 2013 national champion banner on Metro Hall to celebrate its 10th anniversary, since it can’t hang at Yum! Center because the NCAA vacated the title.

    All that passion doesn’t disappear. It gets repurposed. A harsh shift has occurred from people supporting Kenny Payne as a person to people being so distraught by losing that it turns personal. Everything Payne says is seemingly subject to interpretation and attack. After this season opened with a 71-68 exhibition game loss to Kentucky Wesleyan, Payne said, “We can’t beat teams with talent. We’re never going to be the most talented team.” Payne meant his young team can’t simply show up and expect to win, but fans and media pounced on the quote.

    After the loss to Indiana, when asked if he expected the Hoosiers to shift to a late zone defense, Payne said, “I did not. I knew (Mike Woodson) wouldn’t play zone — or I thought. He tricked me.” Again, the line scorched social media. Yet as of that day, Indiana had played, per Synergy, 27 possessions of zone defense and 5,781 in man-to-man in three years under Woodson. Twelve of those 27 zone possessions came in the final eight minutes against Louisville. Payne was justified to not prep for a zone. But all people heard was a struggling coach say he got tricked.

    One program alum living in town, who requested anonymity to speak freely, says he dreads stopping at Starbucks for his daily coffee. He ducks his head, trying to be inconspicuous. But that’s impossible. He’s instantly recognized and the questions come before he can place an order. What do we do about Kenny? How’d it get so bad? Who should we hire?

    Publicly, the ex-player voices support for Payne and the program. But truthfully?

    “I think it’s too foregone at this point,” the ex-player said. “‘Sad’ is the word that comes to my mind, you know? By now, I would guess like 95 percent of the fan base has given up on this working. It’s hard to argue. The negativity is overwhelming.”

    Multiple alums echoed the sentiment. That they don’t bother looking at social media anymore. They cringe seeing Yum! so barren. They worry about the current players trying to navigate something they didn’t sign up for.

    As Peyton Siva puts it, playing college ball in a town like Louisville is “a gift and a curse.”

    “When it’s going good, it’s so great. They show you love,” Siva says. “When it’s going bad, man, there are some people who make it tough.”


    Louisville lost at home to Arkansas State 75-63 on Dec. 13. (Andy Lyons / Getty Images)

    Heird, the Louisville athletic director, is sitting in an empty practice gym connected to the Yum! Center. Groans are audible from the arena. Asked how it’s come to this, he admits that he, too, is trying to understand.

    “I think that’s the most difficult part of being an athletic director,” he says. “Everything can align to say, ‘This is the one.’ Right? ‘A can’t-miss (hire).’ The example I always use is Scott Frost. Name one person in the country, when he was at UCF, that thought that wasn’t going to work at Nebraska.”

    Heird pauses, waiting for an answer that doesn’t come.

    “There wasn’t one,” he concludes.

    Whatever happens next at Louisville will ultimately be in Heird’s hands. He’s not a native, but he knows the place. He spent 2006 to 2017 in the department, as it expanded and improved wildly under former AD Tom Jurich, before spending three years at Villanova. Heird returned as deputy AD under Vince Tyra in 2019, before ascending to the top seat. Now he oversees a department that is winning in every sport except the one that matters the most.

    Heird knows all the rumors. That he’s supposedly going to fire Payne if he loses this game or that game. Heird counters that he would never treat a single result as a line of demarcation.

    “That’s unrealistic to put on any coach,” he says.

    Instead, Heird says, he looks for progress. Even if it is gradual. Is there progress?

    That probably depends on how hard one is willing to look.

    It was Heird and Louisville that decided to hire a first-time head coach for one of the most prominent jobs in college basketball. As one ex-player put it: “They hired KP and got KP. Don’t you have to give him a chance to figure this out?”

    Asked if Payne has been given any degree of grace as a first-time head coach, Heird draws a long pause.

    “No, but I didn’t expect him to, and he didn’t, either,” Heird says. “You’re the head coach of Louisville men’s basketball. Nobody cares that you’re a first-time head coach, you know? Nobody cares.”

    Heird says he hasn’t discussed with Payne any assurance that he’ll make it to the end of this season. It’s on Heird to decide whether the program can afford to give Payne a chance at a third season or pay an $8 million buyout to remove him before March 31. The buyout drops to $6 million after that date.

    Some see an in-season move as an inevitability. That, though, would come with its own complications. What is there to realistically be saved? Who would be a viable interim coach? What’s the harm in giving Payne a chance to salvage … something?

    Louisville fans, meanwhile, who’ve seen 13 losses to sub-150 KenPom opponents over the last 34 games, will continue to wait for what’s next. They’ll talk about Mick Cronin or Bruce Pearl or Andy Enfield; or Randy Bennett, Sean Miller, Dennis Gates, Chris Beard. Some will dream the ultimate dreams — Billy Donovan or Jay Wright. Still, some other Card fans, albeit a few, will hold out hope that the answer is still right in front of them.

    As for Payne, he told reporters last week that he doesn’t spend time thinking about his job security. He coaches for the players and the community, he said, not himself.

    “I learned at an early age,” Payne said, “that if you’re motivated by the critics, or if you’re motivated by praise, you’ll set yourself up to be heartbroken.”

    (Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photo: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: Conference championship games to settle 2023’s final debates

    The Athletic 133: Conference championship games to settle 2023’s final debates

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    The 2023 season comes down to conference championship weekend. We could have the simplest and most impressive College Football Playoff field in the 10-year history of the event, we could have complete chaos or we could have something in between, with a little bit of last-minute drama.

    Michigan’s win against Ohio State moves the Wolverines up to No. 2 in this week’s rankings and leaves four undefeated Power 5 teams entering the weekend. If Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State win, it’s an easy selection. But the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC games could be very competitive and see undefeated teams lose, giving the committee its hardest decisions since 2014.

    Oregon still likely has the strongest case among one-loss teams. The Ducks were the top-ranked one-loss team by the committee last week, and if they beat Washington, they’ll avenge their only loss of the season. Oregon entered the week as a 9.5-point favorite on BetMGM. An Alabama win against Georgia would create the most chaos, but can you put the Crimson Tide ahead of a Texas team that won in Tuscaloosa?

    It’s impossible to predict what the results will be and what the committee will do. Let’s just appreciate the most consequential conference championship weekend we’ve had in a long time.

    GO DEEPER

    Behind the AP Top 25 ballot: Oregon-Washington making Pac-12 history and more takeaways

    The regular season has come to a close, meaning teams with losing seasons have essentially locked in their final positions in these rankings, pending some small moves due to bowl games. But there can still be a lot of change in the upper half. Here is this week’s Athletic 133.

    1-10

    The only question in the top nine was where to place Ohio State, even though it may be ultimately irrelevant to the Playoff picture with the other one-loss teams playing in championship games. Here, the Buckeyes fall a few spots but remain as the top one-loss team because they have two good wins (Penn State, Notre Dame) plus a one-score loss to the No. 2 team. Oregon has dominated opponents in victory but has no wins over current top-20 teams and a one-score loss to No. 3 Washington. Texas beat Alabama and has a one-score loss to Oklahoma but doesn’t have a second top-25 win. Alabama, of course, lost to Texas and still has an ugly performance against USF on the resume to go with some good wins (Ole Miss, LSU).

    All of those teams could jump Ohio State (and get into the CFP) if they win their conference championship games, and they’ll still likely finish in New Year’s Six games if they lose. Do I think Ohio State would beat those teams right now? Perhaps not. But we try to emphasize resume and head-to-head in these rankings.

    The No. 9 and 10 spots are important for NY6 purposes. Ole Miss actually jumps Missouri here because of its wins against LSU and Tulane (though the Green Wave were playing with their backup QB). While Missouri played Georgia close, its best win was either Tennessee, Kansas State or Memphis, none of which are in my top 25, and the Tigers also lost to LSU, whom Ole Miss beat.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Emerson: Georgia’s three-peat hopes depend on beating familiar nemesis

    11-25

    Rank Team Record Prev

    11

    10-2

    14

    12

    10-2

    12

    13

    9-3

    13

    14

    9-3

    15

    15

    10-2

    9

    16

    9-3

    17

    17

    11-1

    20

    18

    12-0

    22

    19

    11-1

    21

    20

    9-3

    18

    21

    8-4

    16

    22

    9-3

    23

    23

    10-2

    24

    24

    11-1

    25

    25

    10-2

    26

    Oklahoma slides up to No. 11 after beating TCU. Although No. 12 Penn State has better losses (Ohio State, Michigan), the Sooners have better wins (Texas, SMU, greater margin of victory against West Virginia), and it’s possible Oklahoma could get up to No. 10 if Texas wins the Big 12 and SMU wins the AAC. Louisville slides down to No. 15 after losing to Kentucky, one spot ahead of Notre Dame due to their head-to-head result.

    Tulane beat UTSA and remains the top Group of 5 team at No. 17, ahead of a clash with No. 25 SMU. Liberty is 12-0, and the early-season win against now-10-win New Mexico State is a quality win. James Madison is 11-1 and going bowling, but it’s not eligible for the New Year’s Six. The big question is whether the CFP committee would put a two-loss AAC champion SMU over a potentially 13-0 Liberty.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Sampson: Notre Dame’s largely successful season can’t represent a peak

    26-50

    Not much change in this group. Kansas State drops out of the top 25 after a loss to Iowa State. New Mexico State is up to No. 31 after beating Jacksonville State to move to 10-3. Kentucky’s win against Louisville moves the Wildcats up to No. 43, while No. 48 Northwestern and No. 49 Maryland move into the top 25 after wins against Illinois and Rutgers, respectively. Northwestern has the head-to-head over the Terps. No. 45 Iowa State beat Kansas State but stays behind 9-3 Ohio due to their head-to-head result. Appalachian State whipped Georgia Southern 55-27 to move up to No. 50 with five consecutive wins to close the regular season.

    51-75

    Georgia Tech slides up to No. 51 after battling Georgia to an eight-point loss. Cal jumps up to No. 55 after beating UCLA but remains behind Auburn due to the head-to-head. Fresno State drops to No. 61 after ending its regular season with losses to New Mexico and San Diego State, but the Bulldogs stay ahead of Boise State thanks to their head-to-head win. San Jose State moves up to No. 70 after beating UNLV and closing its regular season with six consecutive wins.

    76-100

    Colorado ended its season losing eight of its last nine games after a 3-0 start, and Deion Sanders’ group sits at No. 79. Bowling Green rises to No. 83 after beating Western Michigan and winning five of its last six games, with the lone loss against Toledo. No. 87 USF got to 6-6 after beating Charlotte 48-14, and Alex Golesh put together one of the most impressive seasons for a first-year coach this season. Old Dominion beat Georgia State at the buzzer to finish 6-6 and move up to No. 88. The Monarchs played 10 one-score games this season. Utah State beat New Mexico in double-overtime and Louisiana beat ULM, as both got to bowl eligibility.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Feldman’s candidates to replace Dana Holgorsen at Houston

    101-133

    No. 103 Northern Illinois and No. 106 Eastern Michigan both won to get to bowl eligibility, but EMU remains behind Western Michigan and Central Michigan due to losses against both. Vanderbilt finishes as the lowest-ranked Power 5 team at No. 114; Baylor is the next closest at No. 109. Sam Houston closed its season with a walk-off field goal against Middle Tennessee, winning three of its last four games after an 0-8 start. UConn won its final two games against Sacred Heart and UMass to move up to No. 120. Tulsa’s win against East Carolina sees the Golden Hurricane finish at No. 125 and the Pirates finish at No. 128. Kent State finishes as No. 133, having gone 0-11 against FBS competition.

    The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.

    The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • Women’s college basketball power rankings: South Carolina returns to a familiar spot

    Women’s college basketball power rankings: South Carolina returns to a familiar spot

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    If the hope was that two weeks of basketball would have given a clearer picture of the hierarchy in women’s college basketball this season, that has not been the case. In fact, most of my conversations since Nov. 6 have featured some variation of, “Wait, is Team X good?”

    Aside from South Carolina at the top — stop me if you’ve heard that before — every other projected contender has taken its lumps. While the Gamecocks roll through their opposition, most teams around the country need some time to figure out new rosters and systems. Growing pains were expected, like LSU and Virginia Tech integrating new transfers, or Maryland and Indiana dealing with the graduations of WNBA first-round picks.

    Nevertheless, on the whole, the quality of play around the country has been better than expected. But given my regional biases, and the fact that this is the final year of the Pac-12 as we know it, these inaugural rankings will focus out west on the conference that is in the midst of an epic going-away party.

    Almost Famous: Duke, Princeton, Maryland

    Is the promise of Stanford’s frontcourt being realized?

    The Cardinal had an embarrassment of riches at the forward positions last season, but there were too many options for any individual players – other than Cameron Brink – to get sufficient run, especially since Stanford so often went small with Haley Jones at the four. Now the rotation is shorter, and the primary beneficiary is Kiki Iriafen, who is thriving with the larger minutes load.

    Carolyn Peck called Iriafen a mix of Chiney and Nneka Ogwumike with a dash of A’ja Wilson on the Stanford-Duke broadcast Sunday, and though the praise seems hyperbolic, Iriafen’s start has been noteworthy. The junior is averaging 21 points and nine rebounds per game through four contests, blowing away her per-minute averages from the prior two seasons. The Cardinal were already a good paint offense in 2022-23, converting 63 percent of their shot attempts at the rim; Iriafen’s success rate thus far is almost comically impressive, as she has made 25 of 31 shots at the basket. Brink’s ability to space the floor as a shooter and a high-low passer allows Iriafen the room to operate, and that frontcourt tandem is the primary reason Stanford sits undefeated despite welcoming two strong opponents (Indiana and Duke) to Maples Pavilion to start the year.

    One of the most confounding storylines of Stanford’s 2022-23 campaign was the way the Cardinal used (or perhaps, failed to use) Lauren Betts. The No. 1 recruit in the country was an afterthought in Stanford’s rotation, averaging fewer than 10 minutes and getting DNP-ed twice, so it wasn’t exactly surprising that Betts sought out a different location for the rest of her collegiate career.

    Betts’ move to Los Angeles cleared up the frontcourt situation for the Cardinal, and it’s also been a boon for the Bruins. UCLA plays an active brand of defense, swarming ballhandlers and applying heavy ball pressure, but that can create openings at the rim if the opponent gets behind the defense, especially when the Bruins spent much of the season without a traditional center on the court. That is no longer an issue with Betts, who serves as an eraser in the paint, but more often deters opponents from even attempting shots in her vicinity. Opponents are taking less than 15 percent of their shots at the rim against UCLA, better than 97 percent of defenses, per CBB Analytics.

    What’s interesting is that Betts’ impact has actually been more pronounced on offense. Through four games, UCLA is 38 points per 100 possessions better with Betts on the floor, with 25 of those points coming on offense. She works hard to seal her defender so that the Bruins can deliver her the ball inside, but when that doesn’t work, she’s a willing and effective screener who creates space for her guards to get to the basket. Against Princeton, Betts made all nine of her field-goal attempts through three quarters, but didn’t get any shot attempts in the fourth as the Tigers did whatever they could to deny her the ball. She responded by playing pick-and-roll with Charisma Osborne, and as one defender stayed glued to Betts, Osborne had open jumpers and driving lanes.

    The most complete offensive player in the Pac-12

    Iriafen, Brink and Betts have brought the goods to start the season, and although the Utes were the first Pac-12 team to register a loss in 2023-24, that doesn’t diminish how good the reigning conference player of the year has been. The only way to stop Alissa Pili is by getting her off the court, because Pili can do just about anything on offense. She entered Sunday having made nearly 79 percent of her field goals on the season; her jumper has been on point, an almost unfair complement to her beautiful footwork in the post.

    This reverse finish from Pili against Baylor high off the glass was hard to even comprehend in real time.

    At a later date, we’ll dive into the defensive improvements Utah needs to make and how it can stay afloat when Pili is in foul trouble. For now, it’s more fun to simply appreciate what a uniquely skilled offensive player Pili is.

    Why the Buffs are in the national conversation

    We’re weeks away from conference play, and I’m already giddy about the potential Pac-12 player of the year race. The league is filled with dominant frontcourt players, but through two weeks, I can’t take my eyes off of Jaylyn Sherrod. At 5-foot-7, she finishes 60 percent of her shots in the restricted area and gets there nearly five times per game. It takes a rare combination of speed and strength to make her way to the basket so often and so effectively, especially when her long-range jumper is essentially nonexistent. Even when defenses go under on Sherrod since she isn’t a threat to pull up off a screen, they can’t corral her on her path to the hoop.

    What’s been most impressive about Sherrod is her ability to adapt to any pace. Colorado is comfortable executing in the half court, whether that’s letting Sherrod dictate the action from the top of the key or using its forwards as hand-off hubs on the elbows. Sherrod can also push the ball down opponents’ throats with her speed in transition. Against LSU in the opener, the Buffaloes excelled in the open court, and against SMU Saturday, Colorado had to execute against a set defense. Both games resulted in comfortable victories.

    Notre Dame’s one-woman wrecking crew

    From a fifth-year senior to an audacious rookie, the state of guard play in college basketball is at an all-time high. It’s hard to believe that Hidalgo is in her first year at Notre Dame, because she has commanded that team on both ends of the floor like a seasoned veteran. The injuries to Olivia Miles and now Sonia Citron (though coach Niele Ivey was relieved to reveal that Citron should be back in a few weeks) have given Hidalgo more responsibility for the Irish, but it seems like — with her confidence — she would have seized a larger role regardless.

    Hidalgo has been a one-woman wrecking crew for Notre Dame, and it’s fitting that the player who sealed a gold medal for Team USA at the FIBA U-19 World Cup this summer with a steal has brought that level of defensive prowess to South Bend. She is averaging nearly seven takeaways per game — for context, 117 teams in Division I are recording fewer — and had a 12-steal night that tied a program record with fellow New Jersey fireball Marina Mabrey.

    It’s baffling to see opposing teams try to bring the ball up against her full-court pressure or go right at Hidalgo on defense without attempting to screen her off the ball. She has an unending motor as a point-of-attack defender and tremendous instincts in help defense. Notre Dame is 22.1 points per 100 possessions better on defense alone when Hidalgo is on the court, which seems like a misprint until you realize opponents turn over the ball 11 percent more often in those minutes. Two weeks into her college career, Hidalgo might be the most exciting defensive playmaker in the country.

    Is Iowa’s shot distribution the issue?

    Monika Czinano attempted 10.6 field goals per game last season, with another 7.7 coming from McKenna Warnock. That’s about 18 shots per night that Iowa had to reallocate for this season. The ideal outcome would be Hannah Stuelke assuming the bulk of that workload, but she’s added only four more attempts per game. Sharon Goodman and Addison O’Grady have each added three more shot attempts to their averages, but that still leaves about eight more field goals per contest, and most of those are going to Caitlin Clark.

    In theory, giving more shots to the best offensive player in the country isn’t a problem, but Clark’s workload is a little overwhelming for Iowa right now. And the reigning national player of the year admitted after the Hawkeyes’ loss to Kansas State that she needs to be better at getting everyone involved. Coach Lisa Bluder further drove that point home when she said about her post players: “We have to have more faith in them.”

    The magic Clark created with Czinano can’t be easily replicated, even if it seems like Iowa is constantly churning out one great post after another. But the only hope of that happening is for Clark to at least give Stuelke, Goodman and O’Grady a chance.

    (Photo of Te-Hina Paopao: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • The Athletic 133: 11-0 Washington deserves more respect

    The Athletic 133: 11-0 Washington deserves more respect

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    It’s time to put some respect back on Washington’s name.

    The Huskies are undefeated and have the best win in the country, based on these rankings, but they have continually sat outside the top four of the College Football Playoff selection committee’s in-season rankings. That needs to change this week. After pulling out a 22-20 win against Oregon State on a rainy night in Corvallis, Washington has the most impressive resume in the country. The Huskies move up to No. 2 in this week’s Athletic 133.

    Washington has wins over Oregon, Arizona, Utah, Oregon State and USC. Nobody can match that many good victories. Yes, the Huskies needed a pick six and a questionable penalty to escape Arizona State and played Stanford close, but no team blows everyone out every single week.

    Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. struggled at times against the Beaver defense, completing 13 of 28 passes, but he was responsible for all three touchdowns in a difficult environment, and he came up with a clutch third-down completion to Rome Odunze to seal a game which Washington entered as a betting underdog.

    Georgia continues to look like the best team in the country and is getting better every week, but everyone else looks beatable, including Washington. Perhaps Oregon will be favored if the Ducks and Huskies meet again in the Pac-12 championship game, but that’s for another time. Right now, Washington deserves to not only be in the top four but higher than fourth.

    Here is this week’s Athletic 133.

    1-10

    Other than Washington moving up, the only change in the top 10 is Missouri moving in after beating Florida to move to 9-2.

    We’ve never seen a season in the CFP era with five 11-0 Power 5 teams. In theory, the situation could work itself out easily, with Georgia, Washington, Florida State and the Michigan/Ohio State winner making the top four. But the devastating leg injury to Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis could upend that possibility and create some difficult CFP conversations about the ‘Noles. They’ll play Louisville in the ACC championship game, which could be a top-10 matchup.

    11-25

    Penn State’s wins over Iowa and West Virginia have looked better as the season has played out, and the Nittany Lions move up to No. 12, behind Ole Miss because of the Rebels’ wins against LSU and Tulane. Oklahoma drops to No. 14 after escaping BYU. Oregon State drops to No. 16 after its loss, falling just behind Arizona, which demolished Utah 42-18 and beat the Beavers in October. James Madison’s undefeated run is over, but the Dukes don’t fall out of the top 25 because it was an overtime loss and JMU still has a good win against Troy. JMU’s full bowl eligibility waiver was denied, so No. 20 Tulane is in the leading position for the New Year’s Six spot, but the Green Wave play UTSA this week before a potential AAC championship game where they could see No. 26 SMU, which just won at Memphis.

    Toledo is 10-1 and also in that NY6 mix after a late win against Bowling Green; the Rockets also move into the top 25. Iowa landing at No. 16 in last week’s CFP rankings was surprising, especially because it was unranked in the AP Poll. They’re No. 24 here this week. The Hawkeyes don’t have a victory over a team with more than six wins and were blown out by Penn State. Their defense is elite, but Iowa has escaped several .500 Big Ten West teams in recent weeks. They’re ahead of Toledo because the Rockets lost to Illinois in Week 1 and Iowa beat the Illini.

    26-50

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    45

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    48

    46

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    40

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    49

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    50

    6-5

    41

    Clemson climbs to No. 30 after beating North Carolina. UNLV is up to No. 32 after coming back to beat Air Force. UCLA’s comfortable win over USC moves the Bruins up to No. 34 and USC down to No. 35. I continue to have no idea why Tennessee, No. 33 here, is ranked in the polls.

    Miami’s one-score loss to Louisville sees the Hurricanes only slide to No. 38 and stay ahead of Texas A&M due to their head-to-head result. Duke continues to slide, now down to No. 40 after a loss to Virginia. Wyoming bounces back up to No. 43, aided by its early-season win against Texas Tech, which beat UCF to get to bowl eligibility.

    New Mexico State’s 31-10 win at Auburn to move to 9-3 sees the Aggies jump up to No. 37. The Fightin’ Jerry Kills have won seven consecutive games, overcoming early losses to UMass and Hawaii that make them a bizarre team to place.

    51-75

    Kentucky and Florida fall out of the top 50 after losses to South Carolina and Missouri, respectively. Georgia Tech is up to No. 54 after beating Syracuse to become bowl-eligible. Maryland only slides two spots to No. 55 after playing Michigan close. Appalachian State’s overtime win at James Madison sees the Mountaineers move up to No. 62.

    Wisconsin got back on track with an overtime win against Nebraska to move up to No. 66. Twelve teams in this group of 25 need a win this weekend to get to a bowl game.

    76-100

    In the Week 3 edition of these rankings, Colorado was No. 14 and Arkansas State was dead last at No. 133. Now, they’re next to each other. Colorado has lost six of seven, including a 56-14 pounding at the hands of Washington State on Friday night, to fall to No. 77. Arkansas State dropped 77 points on Texas State to get bowl-eligible and move up to No. 78.

    No. 83 Virginia and No. 84 Michigan State won’t be going to a bowl game, but they picked up conference wins over the weekend. Georgia Southern’s loss to Old Dominion and Georgia State’s loss to LSU see the Sun Belt rivals drop to No. 85 and 86, respectively. It’s been an odd season for No. 89 Army, which has wins against UTSA, Air Force and Coastal Carolina but losses to UMass and Louisiana-Monroe. The Black Knights are the toughest team to rank and only have Navy left.

    101-133

    Navy’s bounceback season continues, now 5-5 and up to No. 107 after beating East Carolina. New Mexico beat Fresno State and moves up to No. 111. Sam Houston continues to battle, leading Western Kentucky in the fourth quarter before losing. The Bearkats move up to No. 127 as a result. Kent State lost 34-3 to Ball State and remains at No. 133 as the only one-win team in FBS.

    The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.

    The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Tom Hauck / Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • The Athletic 133: Five 10-0 Power 5 teams, three weeks to sort them

    The Athletic 133: Five 10-0 Power 5 teams, three weeks to sort them

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    We’re finally in the stretch run. The biggest games have arrived, and the shakeup at the top is underway.

    Michigan finally played a notable team, taking care of Penn State in Happy Valley. Georgia crushed a top-10 Ole Miss team. Washington held on against Utah and Oregon handled USC. They all have more big games to come in the next two weeks before conference championships.

    After all of that, there is a change at the top here. Georgia is back to No. 1 in this week’s Athletic 133.

    The two-time defending national champs have rounded into form, beating up on Kentucky, Florida, Missouri and Ole Miss in their last five games. This past week was a reminder that Georgia at its best again looks like the best team in the country. Oh, and Brock Bowers, one of the nation’s best pass-catchers, is back. With consecutive wins over top-15 teams, the Bulldogs move back in front of Ohio State.

    Still, a CFP spot is not yet guaranteed. Georgia finishes with Tennessee and Georgia Tech, then has the SEC championship game against an Alabama team that has also very much figured things out.

    We have five 10-0 Power 5 teams for the first time since the College Football Playoff began, and none of them have an easy path to the top four. Buckle up.

    Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 133.

    1-10

    As I promised all season, Michigan has slid into the top three after beating Penn State, the Wolverines’ first opponent of note. The victory was very similar to Ohio State’s win over PSU, both in how the game played out with its lack of offensive fireworks, but also in the way the Wolverines and Buckeyes spent most of the game in control. The Buckeyes stay ahead of Michigan by virtue of their win at Notre Dame, but these teams look very even right now. Their meeting in Ann Arbor in two weeks should be another classic.

    Among the one-loss teams, Oregon, Texas and Alabama all have a case to be the best. Alabama has the most quality wins. Texas beat Alabama. Oregon manhandled Utah, beat USC and has the best loss, coming at Washington when the Ducks were two yards away from victory. Oregon ultimately stays atop the group for now after notching a second notable win. The Ducks have No. 10 Oregon State in two weeks. While all the attention is on the 10-0 teams, all three of these teams very much have a path to the CFP. Does Louisville? It’s hard to say. The 9-1 Cardinals had to rally to beat Virginia and lack notable wins, but a potential ACC championship game win against Florida State might make things interesting.

    GO DEEPER

    Behind the AP Top 25 ballot: There’s still hope for compelling rankings drama

    11-25

    Ole Miss continues to prove itself as a good team that is nowhere near the top teams in the country with the nature of its losses to Georgia and Alabama, and the Rebels drop to No. 11. Oklahoma is a tough team to grade. The Sooners lost consecutive games to Kansas and Oklahoma State but also have one of the best wins in the country (Texas), and their win over SMU (now 8-2) continues to look better. Penn State drops back to No. 15 after the loss to Michigan, and the Nittany Lions’ offensive struggles resulted in the firing of offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich on Sunday.

    James Madison remains the top-ranked Group of 5 team, up to No. 17 after beating UConn 44-6. The Dukes have wins against Troy (8-2), Virginia, South Alabama and Marshall. Tulane is the top-ranked G5 team eligible for the New Year’s Six, but the Green Wave have had to hang on in four consecutive one-score wins against lesser opponents and stay at No. 21. Tulane is battling injuries, but it keeps the door open for Liberty, which is now 10-0 and up to No. 22 after beating Old Dominion 38-10.

    Arizona moves up to No. 19 after beating Colorado on a last-second field goal, and North Carolina moves into the top 25 again after beating Duke in overtime. Oklahoma State and Kansas fall after losses to UCF and Texas Tech, respectively, but remain in the top 25 for now on the strength of their wins.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Snyder: James Franklin needs to look in mirror before making next OC hire

    26-50

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    31

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    32

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    40

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    41

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    51

    44

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    36

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    48

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    53

    49

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    42

    50

    7-3

    64

    Iowa is back near the top 25 after a 22-0 win against Rutgers to move to 8-2. Troy, Toledo and SMU continue to move up after wins, and Toledo has won nine consecutive games. Tennessee falls out of the top 25 after a 36-7 loss to Missouri, and next up is Georgia.

    Fresno State tumbles down to No. 35 after a stunning 42-18 loss to San Jose State. UNLV moves up to No. 36 after beating Wyoming, which beat Fresno State, but the Bulldogs have a win over UNLV. Miami lost 27-20 to Florida State but remains at No. 37 thanks to its wins against Clemson and Texas A&M. Auburn’s 48-10 win against Arkansas moves the Tigers up to No. 41. Air Force drops down to No. 45 after a second consecutive loss, this one against Hawaii. UCLA falls to No. 46 after losing 17-7 to Arizona State. Coastal Carolina has won five consecutive games and moves up to No. 50 after beating Texas State.

    51-75

    Virginia Tech jumps to No. 52 after a 48-22 win against Boston College. Rutgers remains ahead at No. 51 thanks to its head-to-head win against the Hokies. Illinois’ overtime win against Indiana sees the Illini climb back up to No. 62. New Mexico State is 8-3 with six consecutive wins, clinching a spot in the CUSA championship game and moving up to No. 60.

    No. 63 Colorado has lost six of seven. No. 64 TCU has lost five of six. No. 67 Washington State has lost six consecutive games, and No. 70 Wisconsin has lost four of five, including consecutive losses to Indiana and Northwestern.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Boise State head coach job profile, key factors for next hire

    76-100

    Georgia State has tumbled down to No. 77 after three consecutive lopsided losses to Georgia Southern, James Madison and Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have won three consecutive games to move up to No. 76. Marshall beat Georgia Southern to end a five-game losing streak and move up to No. 79.

    A shorthanded Arizona State beat UCLA and moved up to No. 83. Purdue beat Minnesota 49-30 to move up to No. 89, Cincinnati moved up to No. 90 after beating Houston, and San Jose State jumped up to No. 94 after beating Fresno State. Virginia is 2-8 but continues to play close games to the end, most recently against Louisville, so the Cavaliers remain at No. 98.

    101-133

    Sam Houston is on a winning streak! The Bearkats got their first win as an FBS team last week and got their first FBS win against an FBS team this weekend by beating Louisiana Tech. As a result, they get out of the No. 133 spot and jump up to No. 128. Navy’s 31-6 win against UAB sees the Midshipmen move up to No. 108 and the Blazers drop behind them. Vanderbilt is the lowest-ranked Power 5 team at No. 111, losing to South Carolina 47-6.

    (Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • Listen to Duke vs. Louisville on October 28

    Listen to Duke vs. Louisville on October 28

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    The No. 20 Duke Blue Devils are headed to Louisville, KY, to take on the No. 18 Louisville Cardinals on October 28 at 3:30pm ET.

    You can listen to every snap live from Cardinal Stadium on the SiriusXM App and in car radios with your choice of the home or away feed.


    Stream the Louisville Cardinals broadcast (Ch. 955)

    Stream the Duke Blue Devils broadcast (Ch. 956)


    Home: Louisville Cardinals

    The Cardinals are on a quest to reach a 7-1 overall record, reminiscent of their impressive 2016 season when they started with a remarkable 9-1 before finishing at 9-4. Their home field dominance is undeniable, as they seek their ninth consecutive home win, following a recent victory over Notre Dame.

    Linebacker TJ Quinn has been a standout, leading the team with 55 tackles, including a career-best 12 in their recent game against Pitt. Quarterback Jack Plummer has been delivering impressive performances, including two 300-yard passing games this season. Wide receiver Jamari Thrash has been a key asset, amassing 17 receptions for 195 yards and a touchdown in the last two games.

    The Cardinals’ defense has stood tall, allowing a mere 317.9 yards of offense in their seven games. In fact, they’ve held their last three opponents to under 300 yards of total offense.

    Away: Duke Blue Devils

    Duke, currently ranked 16th, experienced a tough 38-20 loss to Florida State last week, marking their second defeat of the season against nationally ranked opponents.

    Running back Jaquez Moore made an impact last week, rushing for a career-best 110 yards with a touchdown. Quarterback Riley Leonard, despite battling injuries, has showcased his skills this season, throwing for 981 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 339 yards and four scores. Duke also boasts talented receivers in Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore, both with over 25 catches and 300+ receiving yards.

    Duke’s defense ranks third in the ACC by allowing just 315.9 yards per game. They excel in pass defense, yielding a mere 179.4 yards through the air, a statistic that places them 15th nationally.


    Louisville Cardinals Home Feed:

    SiriusXM channel 193 in your vehicle

    Channel 955 on the SiriusXM App

    Duke Blue Devils Away Feed:

    SiriusXM channel 194 in your vehicle

    Channel 956 on the SiriusXM App


    Want to listen to more games? Throughout the 2023 College Football season, SiriusXM listeners get access to dozens of game broadcasts each week involving teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC, and other conferences — plus Army, Navy, HBCU football and more. For more information about SiriusXM’s college football offerings, click here.


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    Matthew Fanizza

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  • College basketball coaching tiers 2023: Dan Hurley moves into Tier 1, John Calipari falls

    College basketball coaching tiers 2023: Dan Hurley moves into Tier 1, John Calipari falls

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    In a sport with 362 teams, one would have to be a dummy to attempt any contextualization of the hierarchy of the coaches who lead the game.

    Fortunately, we’re not one, but three, such dummies.

    This is Year 2 of The Athletic’s Men’s Basketball Coaching Tiers. (See last year’s here.) This exercise is meant to go beyond the subjectivity of a numeric coaching ranking or the inherent callousness of the dreaded annual Hot Seat list.

    Instead, we break down coaches into tiers, trying to find lines of demarcation among groups of coaches, then take those tiers to multiple authorities throughout college hoops, glean their opinions, tweak the tiers as necessary and share our findings with you.

    Is it a perfect method? No.

    Will you probably be angry about your favorite coach? Probably.

    But we’re trying.

    Criteria for inclusion span a few categories that, we think, encapsulate a picture of college basketball’s pecking order. Coaches rated here are required to fit the following qualifications:

    • All coaches from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC.

    • Any coach from a non-“power” conference who has led his team to the NCAA Tournament in the last three seasons.

    • Any coach leading a program currently ranked in KenPom’s top 100 program rating.

    • Each must have coached a full season at the Division I level.

    • Each must be an active Division I coach.

    It must be said, there’s no science or unassailable consistency to our grading. As in, each tier doesn’t come with benchmark qualifications. A lot of this is based on feel, opinion, familiarity and some occasional admitted recency bias.

    Everything is debatable, and that’s partially the point.

    We reviewed these tiers with a former player-turned-analyst, an X’s and O’s guru, multiple former coaches, a high-profile grassroots director, a current university basketball administrator and a search firm head. All were granted anonymity in exchange for their candor. We took their opinions, used them to shape some of what you see here and will share with you some of their insight.

    There’s no exact definition of what makes a great coach — be it drawing up plays, in-game adjustments, scouting chops, recruiting, program leadership, player relations, etc. What matters most is arbitrary, hence our variant panel. Each agreed that the challenge of this task is the quantity, quality and variety of college basketball coaches. That, and, of course, the results.

    As one industry insider put it: “We are definitely in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world, which is what makes this so hard. Fan bases not only don’t have a lot of patience; they don’t have a real appreciation for what people have done in the past.”

    So, now that it’s clear that this is an impossible task, let’s get to these infallible, incontrovertible tiers.

    Tier 1

    Coach Team

    Tony Bennett

    Scott Drew

    Mark Few

    Dan Hurley

    Tom Izzo

    Rick Pitino

    Kelvin Sampson

    Bill Self

    There’s no debating these are the best coaches in college basketball. There’s also no guarantee such status is indefinite. The tough decision was made this year to drop a coach from a certain public land-grant research university in Lexington, Ky., from the top tier (we’ll get to him shortly), while a new name has risen into this rare air.

    Multiple respondents referred to either Bill Self or Rick Pitino as the best coach in the game or said the two are worthy of being in a tier all of their own. A grassroots coach we highly respect called them “probably two of the greatest five college coaches ever.”

    We considered a 1A and 1B tier distinction, placing Self and Pitino on their own. Maybe that’s warranted — these are the only active coaches with multiple national championships — but separating the two coaches with the most, um, “complicated,” resumes just didn’t sit well.

    At the same time, that would be perfectly representative of our college basketball ecosystem, wouldn’t it?


    Bill Self is widely regarded as the best coach in the game. (Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)

    It’s almost inarguable that Self has been the best coach at the highest level for some time. He’s widely regarded among fellow coaches as the best out of timeouts, dead balls and halftime. As one respondent who delves deep into Xs and Os and data analysis put it, Self is “the best combination of coaching and recruiting.”

    As for Pitino, yeah, it’s complicated, but there’s no questioning his place in the game. Does anyone expect anything other than immediate success at St. John’s? He just went 34-6 in league play during the last two years at Iona. Now he’s stacking talent in Queens. He wins everywhere.

    One former high-major coach suggested Izzo belongs in his own category on account of his 26 straight NCAA Tournament appearances. “Do you know how hard that is to do?” the coach said.

    Other names here should come as little surprise. Drew, Few, Sampson and Bennett are consistently among the best, most successful program leaders out there. Bennett’s staying power here, however, is starting to come into question.

    Since the COVID-19 cancellation of 2020, Virginia has won a pair of ACC championships but hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game and missed the dance entirely in 2022. That’s a tough stretch to swallow. Three of UVA’s last four NCAA Tournament appearances ended with first-round losses to UMBC, Ohio and Furman. The other resulted in a national title. It’s all hard to square.

    “I can’t believe I’m going to say this,” a player-turned-analyst said, “because he’s a really good coach, but I’m questioning Tony Bennett. … He’d be at the top of (Tier 2) for me.”

    Is that fair? This is one of the great difficulties in creating a caste system like this. Single-game NCAA Tournament results carry so much weight but are inherently fitful. As one high-major administrator said: “I really struggle judging people by any one result.”

    That brings us to Dan Hurley. Before March, the 50-year-old was 2-4 in NCAA Tournament games. He was most known for his last name and sideline hysterics. Then UConn beat Iona, Saint Mary’s, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Miami and San Diego State, and now, as far as this exercise goes, he’s among the best of the best.

    There was much discussion. The aforementioned administrator chalked this up as recency bias and countered, “Hasn’t John Calipari accomplished significantly more than Dan Hurley?” Yes, he has. Still, in the here and now, Calipari is treading water with one NCAA win in the last three years, while Hurley has built a sustainable rocket ship at UConn.

    “If Scott Drew’s there, if Kelvin Sampson’s there, if Mark Few is there,” said a former longtime high-major coach, “then Dan Hurley deserves to be there, too.”

    Should one title carry so much sway? Maybe not (where is Kevin Ollie, anyway?), but we’re buying this stock as a long-term name in a game looking to replace the likes of Mike Krzyzewski, Jim Boeheim, Roy Williams, Jay Wright, Bob Huggins, etc. If he doesn’t already, it won’t be long until Hurley fits the part.

    Tier 2

    Coach Team

    Rick Barnes

    Randy Bennett

    John Calipari

    Ed Cooley

    Mick Cronin

    Brian Dutcher

    Jim Larrañaga

    Greg McDermott

    Sean Miller

    Eric Musselman

    Nate Oats

    Matt Painter

    Bruce Pearl

    Shaka Smart

    Let’s get right at it: Calipari is the only coach with a national championship who is not in Tier 1. Go mad, Big Blue Nation. Reminiscent of this exercise a year ago, when we debated and dithered about Boeheim and Huggins, slotting Calipari proved tricky. He’s won and taken three schools to a Final Four — asterisks be damned. But none of that has happened in nine long years.

    Insiders argued both sides of the coin: that Kentucky has every available resource, but having every available resource makes it that much harder to realize outsized expectations; that Cal has been dogged for being a bad coach unfairly but sometimes schematically he’s not a great coach. One source called watching Kentucky last year “brutal,” while another argued, “he probably gets hated on too much.”

    The bottom line, as Cats fans know all too well, is there has been nearly a decade’s worth of disappointment — of stacked rosters moving on to the draft, but not moving on in the NCAA Tournament.

    “With the talent they have, it’s not good enough for Kentucky, and it’s not good enough for him,” an analyst said.

    The good news for Calipari: Nothing is forever, as the transiency of Tier 2 this year proves. Three coaches checked out, and six moved in — Shaka Smart, Greg McDermott, Nate Oats, Brian Dutcher, Jim Larrañaga and Randy Bennett.

    That the new entrants run from 46 (Smart) to 74 (Larrañaga) says pretty much everything about how this thing works. Adjusting to the evolution of the game, remaining relevant at various levels of programs and sustaining success are the secret sauce. Smart won at VCU and Texas, and now he has Marquette poised to challenge for a national title.

    McDermott, whom one analyst called “maybe the best offensive coach in the country,” steadily and consistently built has Creighton into a national program. He and Dutcher probably had their best squads in the COVID-19 canceled 2020 season, with the Bluejays winning the Big East and San Diego State sitting on a 30-2 record. Oats won at Buffalo and is now winning at Alabama, where fans only recently discovered the basketball arena. As for Bennett, he hasn’t had a losing season since his first year at Saint Mary’s. Were he not existing in the immense shadow of Gonzaga, who knows what his program could achieve?

    No one proves how to make success last better than Larrañaga. He has taken two non-traditional powers (George Mason and Miami) to the Final Four, while unabashedly embracing the sport’s new wave.

    “Talk about a guy in his 70s who changed his whole philosophy,” one grassroots coach said. “He didn’t hesitate jumping on the NIL.”

    A final note on the transiency of Tier 2: moving up and on is also a possibility, and if anyone is poised for the jump, it’s Matt Painter. Plenty of insiders thought he should be in Tier 1 already, citing his playcalling acumen and ability to identify and develop players who suit Purdue.

    “In the sense of longevity, consistency, reinvention, winning with lesser talent, development,’’ one former coach said. “Outside of that recency bias of the game last year, I just think he’s that good.”

    The catch, of course, is how to measure March success — or in this case, lack of success. If Calipari is held to that standard, Painter probably needs to be, too.

    “I love Paint, so my instinct is to say he’s among the best coaches in the game,” an administrative source said. “And he is, but this is probably the right spot for him. Results-wise, there are a lot of similarities between him and (Xavier’s) Sean Miller, and there have been some very average years in there.”

    Tier 3

    Coach Team

    Dana Altman

    Chris Beard

    John Becker

    Hubert Davis

    Darian DeVries

    Jamie Dixon

    Andy Enfield

    Greg Gard

    Dennis Gates

    Leonard Hamilton

    Chris Holtmann

    James Jones

    Matt Langel

    Tommy Lloyd

    Dusty May

    Fran McCaffery

    Grant McCasland

    Ritchie McKay

    Niko Medved

    TJ Otzelberger

    Steve Pikiell

    Mike Rhoades

    Bob Richey

    Jon Scheyer

    Jerome Tang

    Brad Underwood

    Kevin Willard

    Buzz Williams

    Mike Young

    Large group. A wide array of circumstances. A wide array of conclusions.

    Such as: What in the world do you do with Chris Beard?

    Career .701 win percentage, a national championship game appearance, assembled a Texas roster that won 29 games and lost in the Elite Eight last season.

    “He’s just too good,” an industry source said. “He’s got too many answers for too many things.”

    Beard also lost his dream job after an arrest following a domestic incident, after which Ole Miss threw him a lifeline.

    “He gets the most out of his players, wherever he is,” the analyst said. “But it’s fair to ask if the other stuff counts. If it’s strictly basketball, he’s Tier 2. With the other stuff, that matters because it affects doing your job.”

    And then there’s Hubert Davis. One season, it’s a run to the national championship game. The next, it’s one of the most disappointing seasons in recent men’s college basketball history. Add to that the concern that he has strayed too far from what made North Carolina great, at least according to those watching from afar.

    “There’s really not similarities to the old Carolina Way, with the way that they play,” an industry source said.

    Davis has five-star guard Elliot Cadeau on campus, plus a 2024 recruiting class currently featuring two national top-10 prospects.

    “He’s a tricky one,” the former coach said. “He has a lot to prove still. Can he run the type of program he’s been given? I think he can, but he hasn’t yet. Not consistently. And I’m not talking about getting to the Final Four. I’m talking about making the (NCAA) Tournament.”


    Year 3 will be an important one for Hubert Davis. (Grant Halverson / Getty Images)

    Some of these coaches — Texas A&M’s Buzz Williams and Maryland’s Kevin Willard, in particular — were deemed to be on the cusp of seasons that demand reassessment in a good way. Some of them — the Big Ten trio of Brad Underwood, Greg Gard and Chris Holtmann — could use a jolt of high-level success in March, at least according to the sources The Athletic spoke to for feedback. And there was some mystification regarding one coach in particular.

    “It’s amazing to me that nobody’s hired John Becker,” the grassroots coach said. “Just literally amazing.”

    Vermont’s coach has a .712 win percentage in 12 seasons and six straight regular-season conference titles. Becker is almost certainly at the point in his career where he would take on a challenge at a higher level. But that call has yet to come.

    “He’s done an incredible job,” the administrative source said. “The resources they have at Vermont relative to the rest of the league are good but still lacking at the same time. He really struggles to get (quality) games scheduled based on their region and their sustained success. But they just win over and over and over again.”

    Tier 4

    Coach Team

    Amir Abdur-Rahim

    Steve Alford

    Kenny Blakeney

    Tad Boyle

    Mike Boynton

    Bryce Drew

    Steve Forbes

    Joe Golding

    Anthony Grant

    Penny Hardaway

    Ray Harper

    Eric Henderson

    Shaheen Holloway

    Juwan Howard

    Chris Jans

    Robert Jones

    Pat Kelsey

    Andy Kennedy

    Eric Konkol

    Thad Matta

    Matt McMahon

    Wes Miller

    Porter Moser

    Ryan Odom

    Joe Pasternack

    Mark Pope

    Leon Rice

    Mark Schmidt

    Rob Senderoff

    Micah Shrewsberry

    Danny Sprinkle

    Jerry Stackhouse

    Damon Stoudamire

    Rodney Terry

    Mike Woodson

    Now it gets interesting. Or complicated. Here you have 35 coaches who could move up or down a tier and probably not draw too much pushback.

    Perfect examples — Porter Moser and Juwan Howard. It wasn’t long ago both were being hailed as rising stocks anyone would buy. Moser was mentioned for every opening in college basketball after vaulting Loyola Chicago to national prominence. Howard was mentioned for every NBA opening after making major waves at Michigan.

    Now? Moser is 34–33 in two years at Oklahoma, trying to find upward momentum in college basketball’s most brutal league. A 5-13 Big 12 mark in Year 2 of his six-year deal means a lot is riding on Year 3.

    As for Howard.

    “You had two lotto picks and Hunter Dickinson and couldn’t win? That’s a problem,” the analyst said of last year’s Michigan team. “I don’t think there’s been a lot of impressive X-and-O going on the last couple of years, and the end-of-game situations have been really poor.”

    Multiple respondents cited the oft-repeated line that Howard only won with John Beilein’s players. That’s not entirely accurate. Howard’s best team was a 2021 group that went 23-5 and reached the Elite Eight. Four of that team’s top six players (Franz Wagner, Dickinson, Mike Smith and Chaundee Brown) never played for Beilein. That said, things do need to turn around in Ann Arbor. Last season was bad, and judging by projections, this year could be worse.

    Moving up from Tier 5 are Jerry Stackhouse, Bryce Drew, Pat Kelsey, Ryan Odom, Joe Pasternack and Andy Kennedy. Micah Shrewsberry, meanwhile, after taking Penn State to the NCAA Tournament with a team built from spare portal parts, moves up two spots. No one in this entire exercise received as much universal praise as the new Notre Dame coach.

    “I was surprised Micah is not higher,” the grassroots coach said. “Micah, of anybody in Tier 4, could be in Tier 2 in the next year or two and Tier 1 for the next 15 years.”

    We received some pushback on Leon Rice. A few insiders noted that it’s absurd to produce his level of success at Boise State. One former coach said, “You could put Leon Rice in Tier 3, and nobody that follows basketball would doubt that.”

    Both Mike Boynton and Andy Enfield were highlighted as coaches who do good work that gets easily overlooked.

    It’s sort of forgotten now that Enfield did the impossible at Florida Gulf Coast and was considered a potential one-hit wonder when landing at USC. Did anyone envision him lasting 10 years there and winning at a .616 clip?

    And Boynton, at 41, remains a coach many are high on, despite some trying times at Oklahoma State, much of which was out of his control.

    “He’s had to handle an NCAA postseason ban that was wrongly administered,” a high-major administrator told us. “But his teams have been tough as nails. This is a guy I buy long-term. Every time I talk to him, I leave more impressed by him.”

    Tier 5

    Coach Team

    Tobin Anderson

    Jeff Boals

    Jeff Capel

    Speedy Claxton

    Chris Collins

    Johnny Dawkins

    Kim English

    Todd Golden

    Earl Grant

    John Groce

    Mitch Henderson

    Darrin Horn

    Martin Ingelsby

    Ben Jacobson

    Kevin Keatts

    Rob Lanier

    Shantay Legans

    Jeff Linder

    Steve Lutz

    Bob Marlin

    Paul Mills

    Chris Mooney

    Mike Morrell

    Scott Nagy

    Kyle Neptune

    Lamont Paris

    Richard Pitino

    Craig Smith

    Kyle Smith

    Preston Spradlin

    Drew Valentine

    Mike White

    It’s crowded in the middle, which makes sense, but there is a legitimate difference between how coaches got here. Some are on the rise like Kim English. After just two years at George Mason, he jumped directly to Providence — and straight to Tier 5.

    “I don’t know if it’s confidence or if it’s arrogance, but he is unafraid,” one industry source said. “And in that league, you gotta be that way. … I think he’s going to be toe-to-toe with those guys. I just respect him as a coach. There’s people that don’t like him, and I think that’s because he’s tough and there’s a confidence there. And there’s people that love him, and I think it’s because he’s tough, and there’s a confidence there. So is it confidence? Arrogance? Either way, it’s working.”

    People feel similarly about Tobin Anderson. From the outside, it might look like he’s simply catapulted himself off of one win — Fairleigh Dickinson’s epic 16-over-1 NCAA Tournament upset of Purdue — but people inside basketball point to his longevity outside of Division I. Anderson went 209-62 at St. Thomas Aquinas, reaching three Sweet 16s and one Elite Eight. Experts expect more of the same at Iona.

    “He has a unique style,’’ one analyst said. “Press all game, motion-centric offense. It’s a style shock when you play them.”

    Mitch Henderson earns similar praise at Princeton. The former Tigers player does not run Pete Carril’s fabled “Princeton offense” to a tee, but his variation works well.

    “I like Mitch Henderson a lot,” one insider said. “He’s got a very unique style of play, he’s got a very unique way about him. He probably doesn’t get enough credit because he really wants to be at Princeton.”


    This season should tell us whether Villanova’s Kyle Neptune is ready for the big time. (Kyle Ross / USA Today)

    Mixed in, however, with the coaches on the rise are the Tier 5 coaches who have now or have had Power 6 jobs and are either climbing the ladder for the first time or on their second round. Kyle Neptune fits the first group. The Villanova coach got the keys to the sport’s sweetest ride, but his team a year ago was beset by injuries to key players — Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore, namely — and earned something of a mulligan in Year 1. But now the Wildcats are healthy and have tapped into the transfer portal. The Villanova coach isn’t supposed to be in Tier 5.

    “They’re not going to give you a bunch of time to be good at Villanova,” one grassroots coach said simply.

    Then again, no one thought Pitt would give Jeff Capel much more time, either. Instead, athletic director Heather Lyke’s long-game plan paid off, as the Panthers doubled their win total and went back to the tourney last year. That moved Capel from Tier 6 to 5. He might not last long there.

    Sources don’t think Richard Pitino is long for New Mexico. In two seasons, he has turned the program into a 22-game winner, jumpstarting the Lobos and restarting his career.

    “He’s quietly done a really nice job,” one analyst said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up back at a high-major soon.”

    Perhaps the trickiest guy to figure out is Chris Collins. He jumped up a tier after taking Northwestern to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in program history. Sources laud his ability to do the darned near impossible in Evanston and his decision to surround himself with savvy coaches. More than one industry insider cited the addition of Chris Lowery to run the defense as a difference-maker for the Wildcats, who jumped from 73 to 22 in adjusted defense per KenPom with Lowery on the bench. But the question for Collins isn’t about what he has done, it’s about what more can he do.

    “You were right to move him up one, but I don’t think he’ll ever go higher than this in that job,” the administrative source said. “It’s so hard. Think about it. He’s gotten Northwestern to the NCAA Tournament more than the rest of the planet.”

    Tier 6

    Coach Team

    Griff Aldrich

    Brad Brownell

    Fred Hoiberg

    Bobby Hurley

    Johnny Jones

    Dustin Kerns

    Brad Korn

    Kevin Kruger

    Mark Madsen

    Tony Stubblefield

    Dedrique Taylor

    It’s a bit of a limbo level, with some of the coaches doing enough to avoid any true employment peril while also not exactly filling the fan base with rampant optimism.

    Bobby Hurley, for example, is 141-113 overall at Arizona State and just received a two-year contract extension through 2026 after leading the Sun Devils back to the NCAA Tournament.

    “That’s a really hard job,” the former coach said. “I don’t know why it is, but it is. Think of all the head coaches who have gone through there. Bill Frieder left Michigan because he thought that was going to be a good job. Herb Sendek went there. That to me is a very hard job.’’

    If there’s true upward mobility in the group, it manifests in Appalachian State’s Dustin Kerns. The 70-58 record in Boone maybe isn’t eye-catching … but how Kerns operates is, at least to a couple of sources The Athletic contacted.

    “It’s not exactly a great basketball job,” the grassroots coach said. “And he’s been to the NCAA Tournament, and he’s recruited well.”

    Said an industry source: “You could easily put him in Tier 5. Innovative system. Very good situationally. Makes players better. It’s guys like that, that are going to be hurt as it moves on down the line — the better he makes his players, the more they’re going to leave. But he’s one jump away from a higher league.”

    Tier 7

    Coach Team

    Dan Engelstadt

    Jerod Haase

    Mike Hopkins

    Ben Johnson

    Kenny Payne

    Wayne Tinkle

    “So these are the guys basically getting fired next year, right?” That’s how one industry insider categorized Tier 7, and well, yes. That’s where we are, with the coaches who desperately need to find some semblance of success to stay employed.

    The question here isn’t if it’s bad — that’s obvious. It’s why. In some cases — Jerrod Haase at Stanford, Wayne Tinkle at Oregon State — the jobs are not easy. Then again, it’s not going to get easier for Haase if he’s around when the Cardinal move to the ACC. Tinkle did make the bubble Elite Eight in 2021 — “It’s crazy how quickly perceptions and narratives can change,” one administrative source said. Then again, he followed that up with three- and 11-win seasons.

    Mike Hopkins and Kenny Payne have, on the other hand, been gifted strong programs with a history of success. Hopkins, the former longtime Boeheim assistant, started hot by winning Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors his first two seasons and winning the league regular-season title in his second season. That year, however, was the last the Huskies made it to the NCAA Tournament, a run of diminishing returns. Hopkins’ staunch commitment to his old boss’ defense seems to be part of the problem.

    “I’ve heard a couple coaches make fun of that zone they play,” one analyst said. “It’s just so hard to play 2-3 with the way 3-point shooting is in this day and age.”

    With a new athletic director in town, Hopkins certainly needs to get things right in a hurry.

    As does Payne. It may seem premature to turn on the flames under Payne’s seat. He’s only in his second season at Louisville and inherited a team that has been through a thing or two. Except …

    “I had one of their games, and I think it was the worst shootaround I’ve ever witnessed,” one analyst said. “It was shocking. Messing up the scouting report, guys running into each other, not knowing what they were doing on drills. It was a disaster.”

    The Cardinals lost by an average of 11.9 points per game, including by plus-20 six times and more than 30 twice. The entire season was an abject disaster.

    (Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; Photos of Greg McDermott, John Calipari and Rick Pitino: Justin Casterline, Porter Binks and Rob Carr / Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: Ohio State on the rise in Week 8 as Penn State, USC slide

    The Athletic 133: Ohio State on the rise in Week 8 as Penn State, USC slide

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    Week 8 turned out to be Survival Saturday within much of the top 10.

    Washington escaped Arizona State, thanks to a picked-up flag and a late pick six. Oklahoma escaped UCF by stopping a late two-point conversion. Texas escaped Houston with a fourth down stop. Florida State came back to beat Duke, a game that turned when Duke quarterback Riley Leonard was injured again.

    As a result, there is a shakeup in this week’s Athletic 133 and a new No. 1: Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat Penn State 20-12, holding the Nittany Lions to a 1-for-16 performance on third down. That gives Ohio State two wins over current top-15 teams, enough to catapult the Buckeyes to No. 1 this week.

    Does this mean Ohio State will beat Michigan? I don’t know. The Wolverines have won the last two against Ohio State and have been a buzzsaw against weak competition this year. They look really, really good again. The escapes by other top-10 teams do help the case for Michigan, which hasn’t had such struggles. But as I get ahead of explaining each week, I can’t put a team whose current best win is Rutgers much higher yet. Once Michigan plays Penn State on Nov. 11, that’ll change. I actually have Michigan in my CFP predictions. But these rankings are not predictions. They’re an attempt to evaluate what you’ve done. Margin of victory matters, but who you’ve played weighs more.

    GO DEEPER

    Behind the AP Top 25 ballot: Weak Michigan schedule doesn’t mean it can’t be voted No. 1

    Here is this week’s Athletic 133.

    1-10

    Georgia remains at No. 2 while idle. Florida State moves up to No. 3 thanks to its win and Washington/Oklahoma scraping by. Michigan leaps Texas after the Longhorns barely got out of Houston. Oregon and Oregon State slide into the top 10. The Ducks beat Washington State 38-24, while Oregon State was idle. The Beavers gave Utah their only loss earlier in the season.

    11-25

    Rank Team Record Prev

    11

    6-1

    16

    12

    6-1

    8

    13

    6-1

    17

    14

    6-1

    13

    15

    6-2

    14

    16

    6-2

    19

    17

    7-1

    20

    18

    6-1

    10

    19

    5-2

    15

    20

    7-0

    21

    21

    6-1

    23

    22

    7-0

    24

    23

    5-2

    25

    24

    6-2

    18

    25

    5-2

    26

    Utah jumps to No. 11 after beating USC. Both Penn State and North Carolina fell out of the top 10 after losses. The Nittany Lions drop to No. 13 because they lack notable wins, but the Tar Heels fall to No. 18 after losing to a 1-5 Virginia team at home. Duke was in a battle with Florida State until quarterback Riley Leonard reinjured his right ankle, an unfortunate turn of events. The Blue Devils fall from No. 15 to No. 19. USC hangs on in the top 25 after yet another loss to Utah, and Kentucky slides into the top 25 while idle, on the strength of its earlier win against Florida.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Is the Big Ten’s ‘Big Three’ really just a ‘Big One’?

    26-50

    Iowa is the only team to drop out of the top 25, falling to No. 27. Yes, a fluky referee decision changed what would’ve been a game-winning play, but it was still an ugly affair against a struggling Minnesota team. Oklahoma State has figured things out with three consecutive wins against Kansas State, Kansas and West Virginia to jump up to No. 28. Tennessee sits at No. 29 after losing a halftime lead against Alabama. I remain surprised the Vols are ranked in the polls given their loss to Florida and their best win coming against Texas A&M.

    Miami’s overtime win against Clemson sees the Hurricanes rise to No. 30. The Tigers fall down to No. 37. TCU lost 41-3 to Kansas State, and BYU beat Texas Tech, but both the Horned Frogs and Cougars remain in their position because of TCU’s blowout of BYU just last week. Georgia State moves into the top 50 after getting to 6-1.

    51-75

    UNLV is 6-1 and bowl-eligible for the second time since 2000 after beating Colorado State to move up to No. 57. Boston College has won three consecutive games since an ugly start to the year and now sits at 4-3 overall and No. 58 in the rankings. UTSA is 3-0 since quarterback Frank Harris came back, beating FAU 36-10 to jump up to No. 60. Jacksonville State jumps up to No. 63 after beating Western Kentucky. Like James Madison, Jax State can only reach a bowl game if there aren’t enough 6-6 teams.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Saturday Superlatives: Another Utah-USC classic, upsets and scares galore

    76-100

    Not a ton of movement in this group. Old Dominion’s 28-21 win against Appalachian State moves the Monarchs up to No. 88. FAU was blown out by UTSA and USF beat UConn, but FAU remains ahead of USF after the Owls’ win over the Bulls last week. Northern Illinois has won three consecutive games to get up to No. 91. One week after Stanford beat Colorado, the Cardinal lost 42-7 to UCLA and drop back down to No. 95. Michigan State’s 49-0 loss to Michigan drops the Spartans down to No. 97.

    101-133

    Nevada ended its 16-game losing streak with a 6-0 win against San Diego State, so the Wolf Pack get out of the bottom spot. The new No. 133 is Sam Houston, which is 0-7. The Bearkats were 1:11 away from beating Jacksonville State, three yards away from beating Liberty and one fourth-and-18 stop away from beating FIU. Alas, they have yet to get their first FBS win. Elsewhere in this group, East Carolina drops to No. 126 after a 10-7 loss to Charlotte, and New Mexico State moved up to No. 108 with its third consecutive win.

    The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.

    The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Ben Jackson / Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: Why Washington has earned the No. 1 ranking at midseason

    The Athletic 133: Why Washington has earned the No. 1 ranking at midseason

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    Sign up for the Until Saturday newsletter | Jayna Bardahl and The Athletic’s college football staff deliver expert analysis on the biggest CFB stories five days per week. Get it sent to your inbox.


    It’s rare that a monster game lives up to the hype. We’ve now had it happen two weeks in a row in college football, shaking up the rankings.

    Last week, Oklahoma beat Texas with a touchdown in the final seconds. This week, Washington beat Oregon with a late fourth-down stop, a touchdown and a missed Ducks field goal as time expired. We knew Washington looked like world-beaters up to this point. The Huskies just hadn’t played anyone notable. Placed in one of the biggest games of the year, Washington and Michael Penix Jr. delivered. As a result of the 36-33 win, Washington takes the top spot in this week’s Athletic 133.

    Penix took control of the Heisman Trophy race with his performance and a seemingly never-ending supply of good wide receivers. The Huskies aren’t perfect, but they game-planned well with a banged-up offensive line, and the defense got the stops when they needed them, keeping Oregon to 0-for-3 on fourth downs.

    It’s a top-three win for any team this season, also up there with Texas beating Alabama on the road and Oklahoma beating Texas on a neutral site. That Oregon win, coupled with the strong play otherwise (including a win at Arizona that looks a lot better recently), moves Washington to No. 1 for now. But we’ve got a lot more top-10 matchups coming this year.

    Here is this week’s Athletic 133.

    1-10

    Other than Washington’s move up to No. 1, the only other changes in here include Michigan hopping past Penn State to No. 7 and North Carolina sliding into No. 10 after taking care of Miami. On the Michigan point, the Wolverines leap the Nittany Lions because their Rutgers win is now essentially equal to Penn State’s West Virginia win (though neither is very notable), and Michigan has been so dominant otherwise. As I say every week, Michigan looks extremely good. The Wolverines just don’t play anyone notable until Penn State on Nov. 11. If they win that game, they’ll rocket up near the very top, just like Washington did. As for the comparison to Georgia, the Bulldogs have a blowout top-30 win against Kentucky. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Penn State meet this coming weekend.

    GO DEEPER

    Auerbach’s Top 10: Washington takes No. 1, UNC enters the mix

    11-25

    Rank Team Record Prev

    11

    5-1

    9

    12

    6-1

    18

    13

    6-1

    13

    14

    6-2

    14

    15

    5-1

    15

    16

    5-1

    19

    17

    5-1

    20

    18

    6-1

    12

    19

    5-2

    21

    20

    6-1

    23

    21

    6-0

    35

    22

    6-1

    36

    23

    5-1

    33

    24

    6-0

    34

    25

    4-2

    16

    Oregon slips just out of the top 10 to No. 11. While the Ducks played well and nearly beat Washington on the road, they don’t have a notable win to justify a top-10 spot at the moment, unlike Texas. Oregon State sits just behind at No. 12 after a 36-24 win against UCLA. Louisville was the most difficult team to place this week. The Cardinals lost to Pitt 38-21 but remain at No. 13 because their lopsided win against Notre Dame last week looks much better after the Fighting Irish beat USC. I can’t yet justify putting a two-loss Notre Dame ahead of Louisville after what we just saw last week, so they remain in place for now. It’s always natural to move teams each week after a win or loss, but previous games matter, too.

    After a bunch of losses from the bottom of this group, a handful of Group of 5 teams slide into the top 25, including Air Force (No. 21), Tulane (No. 23) and James Madison (No. 24). The Falcons and Dukes are undefeated, while Tulane beat Memphis on the road. Iowa also jumps up to No. 22 after beating Wisconsin on the road to move to 6-1. Whatever you think of the offense and the injuries, the Hawkeyes keep winning.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Ubben: Iowa to the College Football Playoff? Avert your eyes — but it’s possible

    26-50

    Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee were also very difficult to place, just outside the top 25. They all have similar records, but Kentucky walloped Florida, which beat Tennessee. I wanted to put Florida and Tennessee in the top 25 after Kentucky lost to Missouri, but I can’t do it quite yet because of that Kentucky-Florida result.

    Arizona makes another big leap up to No. 30 after finally getting a breakthrough win, destroying Washington State 44-6 one week after taking USC to overtime and losing to Washington by just seven before that. Quarterback Noah Fifita (342 passing yards) has changed the trajectory for the Wildcats. Oklahoma State similarly makes a big jump to No. 36 thanks to a quarterback decision (Alan Bowman) that has fixed things, with consecutive wins against Kansas State last week and Kansas this week. The Jayhawks don’t fall behind the Cowboys, though, because starting quarterback Jalon Daniels didn’t play in Stillwater.

    Miami (No. 39) and Texas A&M (No. 40) continue to tumble after losses. Iowa State has won three of its last four games since a loss to Ohio, which stunningly lost to Northern Illinois this weekend. And Liberty finally played a somewhat notable opponent, handling 5-1 Jacksonville State to move up to No. 38. Troy is also back on track with a 19-0 shutout of Army, its fourth consecutive win.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    What we learned in CFB’s first half: Pac-12 peaking, UGA cruising, and who’s ‘back’?

    51-75

    Georgia State moves up to No. 51 after a 41-24 win against Marshall to get to 5-1 on the season. A lot of teams dropped out of the top 50 after losses, including Memphis (No. 54), NC State (No. 54), South Carolina (No. 55), Auburn (No. 56) and Texas Tech (No. 63). There were more drops from the likes of Arkansas (No. 62), Syracuse (No. 64) and Cal (No. 65) with losses. Texas State, meanwhile, escaped ULM to move to 5-2 overall and up to No. 68, while UNLV beat Nevada to get to 5-1 and move to No. 69.

    UTSA seems to have rounded into form with Frank Harris playing again, beating UAB convincingly to move to No. 71, and Virginia Tech has won two of its last three after beating Wake Forest 30-13 to move up to No. 72.

    76-100

    Houston (No. 78) beat West Virginia on a Hail Mary and Colorado State (No. 84) beat Boise State on a Hail Mary, but other previous results keep both teams from moving higher for now. Michigan State blew a 24-6 fourth-quarter lead against Rutgers and continues to fall apart, now down to No. 88 with Michigan coming to town next week.

    USF is a very difficult team to place. Since playing Alabama close and winning the next two games, the Bulls have lost to UAB and FAU convincingly in the last two weeks and have tumbled to No. 93. Army continues to struggle, getting shut out by Troy and dropping to No. 95. Central Michigan (No. 94) is a tough team to play, beating South Alabama but losing to Buffalo and holding on to beat Akron 17-10 this week.

    101-133

    No. 101 Northern Illinois has wins against Boston College and now Ohio to go with losses against FCS Southern Illinois and Tulsa. But over the last three weeks, the Huskies seem to have turned things around. Keep an eye on them. Sam Houston, still looking for its first win as an FBS program, fell behind quickly to New Mexico State and tumbles down to No. 132. But Nevada, with its 16th consecutive loss, this one to rival UNLV, remains No. 133.

    The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.

    The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Jesse Beals / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: Who knocked Georgia off the top spot after Week 5?

    The Athletic 133: Who knocked Georgia off the top spot after Week 5?

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    Sign up for the Until Saturday newsletter | Jayna Bardahl and The Athletic’s college football staff deliver expert analysis on the biggest CFB stories five days per week. Get it sent to your inbox.


    It’s been a while since we’ve had a season without a clear-cut No. 1 team this deep into the fall.

    Several teams can make a case, and there are still many big games to be played. But at this point, it’s time for a change. Texas is the new No. 1 in this week’s Athletic 133.

    There are two reasons for it. The first is Texas itself. The Longhorns went to Alabama and handled the Crimson Tide in what is the most impressive single win of the season. Texas also took care of business with blowouts of Baylor and Kansas in the last two weeks. Yes, Texas had a brief scare against Wyoming, but the other teams in the top four have each had a scare against an inferior team as well. The Longhorns have played like the best team in the country and have a marquee win. That’s good for No. 1.

    The second reason is Georgia. We’re almost halfway through the season, and these slow starts can’t be ignored anymore. The Bulldogs trailed South Carolina at halftime and needed a second-half comeback to beat an Auburn team that was pushed around by Texas A&M last week and barely escaped Cal. Georgia hasn’t lost, but the Dawgs don’t have a notable win, unlike Texas (Alabama), Ohio State (Notre Dame) and Florida State (LSU, Clemson). Sagarin ranks Georgia’s schedule strength at 130th nationally. It’s not that bad, but nothing Georgia has done this year is worth a No. 1 ranking at this point compared to other teams.

    Now, believing in Texas might be famous last words for one week. The Longhorns play Oklahoma in Dallas this Saturday. If they win, we might see everyone else come around and rank Texas at No. 1. But I’m making the move now. If the Longhorns lose, well, that’s what I get for thinking Texas has turned a corner. These rankings aren’t meant to be predictive. They’re based solely on what has been accomplished, and thus far, Texas deserves that spot.

    GO DEEPER

    Behind the AP Top 25 ballot: Why I moved Texas to No. 1 over Georgia

    Here is this week’s Athletic 133.

    1-10

    Outside of Texas and Georgia, the other notable move in this group is USC. The Trojans get jumped by Oregon on account of their results against common opponent Colorado, and by Notre Dame after the Irish rallied to beat Duke in the final seconds. USC now sits at No. 10.

    Florida State and Ohio State were both idle, while Oregon and Washington are both off this coming week before playing each other in Seattle on Oct. 14 in a massive game. Michigan finally dominated an opponent (Nebraska) from start to finish like it should, but again, the Wolverines are going to just float around in these rankings until they play a notable opponent (Penn State on Nov. 11) or the teams ahead of them drop games. It’s the same as Georgia. The Bulldogs just started higher. Both teams have played very easy schedules, making their rankings basically irrelevant for now. They have the talent to win the national championship. They just don’t have the resume yet.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    How good is Washington? After a sizzling start, the Huskies got tested Saturday

    11-25

    Maybe Alabama has figured some things out? The Crimson Tide have rebounded from the scare at USF with multi-score wins against Ole Miss and Mississippi State, and they move up to No. 11. Oklahoma continues to look dominant but hasn’t played anyone of note yet, so the Sooners sit behind North Carolina and Washington State. We’ll get a good read on Oklahoma against Texas this Saturday.

    Duke was one fourth-and-long stop away from beating Notre Dame, so the Blue Devils only fall one spot to No. 15. Oregon State rises ahead of Utah up to No. 17 after beating the shorthanded Utes on Friday night. Ole Miss dropped out of the top 25 after losing to Alabama, but the Rebels are back in at No. 20 after their wild 55-49 win against LSU, which falls to No. 24.

    Maryland and Kentucky, both 5-0, have moved into the top 25. The Wildcats sit slightly ahead at No. 21 thanks to the win against Florida this weekend. Texas A&M also slides in at No. 25. The Aggies may have figured things out since Max Johnson became quarterback, with consecutive wins against Auburn and Arkansas.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Auerbach’s Top 10: Week 5 leaves some contenders sweating more than others

    26-50

    Rank Team Record Prev

    26

    4-1

    22

    27

    3-1

    27

    28

    3-2

    21

    29

    4-1

    29

    30

    3-2

    30

    31

    5-0

    34

    32

    3-2

    24

    33

    3-1

    31

    34

    4-1

    32

    35

    5-0

    37

    36

    5-0

    46

    37

    5-0

    48

    38

    4-1

    41

    39

    4-1

    49

    40

    3-2

    25

    41

    4-1

    44

    42

    4-1

    47

    43

    4-1

    36

    44

    4-1

    52

    45

    4-0

    55

    46

    3-2

    45

    47

    3-2

    38

    48

    2-3

    39

    49

    3-2

    50

    50

    3-2

    40

    Kansas falls just out of the top 25 after its 26-point loss to Texas because it didn’t have quarterback Jalon Daniels. Florida only remains in the top 30 for now by virtue of its win against Tennessee. Louisville is 5-0 but still outside the top 25 due to a weak schedule and close calls against Georgia Tech and Indiana. A home game this Saturday against Notre Dame will give us a true read on the Cardinals. Colorado only falls to No. 32 after rallying to within seven of USC late. The Buffs have a lot of problems, but they can still score.

    Tulane remains the top Group of 5 team (No. 34) after a comeback win against UAB, but undefeated Fresno State, James Madison and Air Force are right on the heels of the Green Wave. Fresno State’s game against Wyoming this week is a big one that could boost the Bulldogs into the top 25.

    51-75

    Arkansas and Mississippi State fall out of the top 50 after lopsided losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, respectively. Troy got back on track with a dominant win against previously undefeated Georgia State and moves up to No. 54. One week after comfortably beating Wake Forest, Georgia Tech lost to Bowling Green, making the Yellow Jackets a difficult team to place. They are now down to No. 61.

    USF has beaten Rice and Navy since its narrow loss against Alabama, and the Bulls rise up to No. 65. Texas State is 4-1 and ninth nationally in scoring, and the Bobcats are up to No. 66. Michigan State allowed 26 points to Iowa but just one offensive touchdown, which is a pretty typical way to lose to Iowa these days. Purdue handled Illinois 44-19 in a stunning final score; the Boilermakers move up to No. 57 and Illinois falls to No. 72, remaining ahead of Toledo for now because of its head-to-head win. Miami (Ohio) and UNLV are both 4-1 and squeeze into the top 75 as teams to keep an eye on in their respective conferences.

    76-100

    Baylor scored 29 points in the final 19 minutes to come back and beat UCF 36-35 and move up to No. 79. The Bears remain behind UTSA for now due to their loss to common opponent Texas State. San Diego State has lost four in a row, including 49-10 to Air Force on Saturday, and continues to tumble down to No. 83. Virginia Tech got a much-needed 38-21 win against Pitt to jump up to No. 87.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Saturday Superlatives: Top Week 5 highlights, from Ole Miss-LSU to Caleb Williams

    101-133

    Bowling Green, which was blown out by Ohio a week ago, beat Georgia Tech 38-27 to jump up to No. 101. Stanford drops into this group at No. 102 after a 42-6 loss to Oregon. ULM remains at No. 103 after Appalachian State needed a 54-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Warhawks. Virginia is now the lowest-ranked Power 5 at No. 104 after losing to Boston College, which previously held the title.

    Arkansas State, which was No. 133 after Week 2, has won three games in a row and is up to No. 113 after beating UMass. Sam Houston nearly notched its first FBS win but allowed a late Jacksonville State touchdown drive and lost in overtime. Buffalo beat Akron for its first win to get out of the bottom spot, and the new No. 133 is Nevada, which is now on a 15-game losing streak.

    The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)

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  • Women’s college basketball top 25: LSU, UConn, UCLA lead 2023-24 rankings

    Women’s college basketball top 25: LSU, UConn, UCLA lead 2023-24 rankings

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    The 2022-23 women’s college basketball season ended on a high note as nearly 10 million viewers tuned in to watch LSU and Iowa — two teams on seemingly fate-driven runs — collide in the national championship. The Tigers took home their first title under Kim Mulkey and then turned the offseason into more wins by signing the top two players out of the transfer portal and welcomed the No. 1 high school recruiting class to Baton Rouge.

    But now, it’s a new season. Every team is 0-0. And though the Tigers remain the top team in our preseason projections, several other programs — some perennial powers, some new faces and some programs with chips on their shoulders — look like they could be holding the trophy in Cleveland in April.

    As squads rebuilt, reloaded and re-tooled this offseason, The Athletic took notice (and took lots of notes). With teams across the country kicking off practices this week, it’s the perfect time to debut our preseason top 25.

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    LSU has an abundance of offensive talent, starting with the 2023 Final Four Most Outstanding Player Angel Reese. Nobody works harder in the paint than Reese, who relentlessly attacks the offensive glass and has a superior second jump that keeps her in every play. The Tigers’ offensive rebound percentage of 45.3 last season was due in large part to Reese rebounding one-fifth of the Tigers’ misses. Reese is also a great rebounder on the other end of the floor and showed the ability to grab-and-go on occasion, giving LSU another way to score in transition.

    In addition to Reese, Flau’jae Johnson is guaranteed to get into the paint on drives. Aneesah Morrow scored efficiently at the rim and in the midrange to the tune of 25.7 points per game last year. Hailey Van Lith is another big-game player who averaged 21.1 points during last season’s conference and NCAA tournaments and can consistently get her shot in isolation. Add in super freshman Mikaylah Williams and Kateri Poole’s 38 percent shooting from 3-point range, and there are plenty of sources of scoring on this roster.

    The graduations of two veterans could create some holes. Ladazhia Williams was LSU’s best rim protector, and the Tigers’ only true center now is freshman Aalyah Del Rosario, who will need some time to adjust to the speed of the college game. LSU also relied heavily on Alexis Morris to organize the offense, and none of their perimeter stars are true point guards. One will have to shift her game to run the show – likely Van Lith, since that’s the role she’ll have to play at the next level – but it isn’t certain they’ll adapt as well as Morris.

    Nevertheless, there’s too much talent on this roster to count out the Tigers, even if they take time to grow into themselves like last season. They should be favorites to once again cut down the nets.

    • +Star power
    • +Championship experience
    • +Paint scoring
    • +Offensive rebounding
    • +Depth
    • Rim protection
    • Point guard play

    Is this the season when all of the injuries and adversity that hit Storrs over the past two years finally makes sense? As if it was building to something? Think of it this way: The silver lining of injuries to stars — like Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd — is that it forces other players to step up, and step up the Huskies did. Nika Mühl has made a name for herself in a vaunted history of UConn point guards, Aaliyah Edwards expanded her role and has become a top player heading into her senior season, Caroline Ducharme played like a former top-10 recruit who wasn’t just complementary to other top-10 recruits. And if all of those players can come together for the Huskies this season, the end of UConn’s historic Final Four streak could feel like a distant memory if this team is hanging a banner in Gampel Pavilion.

    But then comes in the cloud that has hung over UConn the past two years: Can the Huskies stay healthy? Because every time this group seemed as if it were finding momentum, there was an injury. Can that be avoided this season? And specifically, can it be avoided when it comes to Bueckers and Fudd. Even without those two, this is one of the most talented rosters in the country. But it needs those two to be healthy (or heck, even one of them) if the Huskies are going to make a run to the national title.

    Edwards, the reigning Big East’s Most Improved Player, will anchor the paint alongside Griffin, but Geno Auriemma will need to fill out depth behind them. Ayanna Patterson and Amari DeBerry got limited minutes last season, and freshman Qadence Samuels got some run with the starting group in Europe when Ducharme was out with injury, but the Huskies will want to be able to run with a deeper rotation in the paint.

    • +Azzi Fudd and Paige Bueckers together
    • +Backcourt play
    • +Talent
    • Remaining healthy
    • Experienced post depth

    Aubrey Griffin

    Guard / Forward

    UCLA returns eight players from a rotation that went nine deep last season, headlined by fifth-year guard Charisma Osborne and sophomore Kiki Rice. Between Osborne and Rice, the Bruins have an abundance of shot creation and one of the stouter defensive backcourts in the country. Both guards need to expand their shooting range for UCLA to hit a higher offensive ceiling — Osborne was effective in the midrange and corners but stands to improve above the break, and Rice was paint-bound other than the left elbow.

    The paint will be more occupied this season with the addition of 6-7 Lauren Betts. The Bruins needed a fulcrum in the paint, as they played mostly without a traditional center, and she should immediately be the team’s most efficient scorer. That will allow Emily Bessoir and Lina Sontag to defend down a position and play on the perimeter on offense. Both players are gifted passers as well, opening up the possibility for high-lows with Betts.

    UCLA will be able to shape-shift depending on the matchup given their surfeit of depth. Londynn Jones provides an active point-of-attack defender off the bench who can also hit 3s. Fellow sophomore Gabriela Jaquez has some old-school post moves to bully smaller wings, while veteran Camryn Brown is another potential defensive stopper on bigger guards. But the Bruins need their stars to be among the nation’s best.

    • +Playmaking
    • +Depth
    • +Offensive rebounding
    • +Continuity
    • Shooting
    • Defending without fouling

    It feels fair to say that we’ll never see another class quite like The Freshies (especially with the advent of the transfer portal). Led by Aliyah Boston, South Carolina’s 2019 recruiting class went 129-9 (including 60-1 at home) during their four years. Given the amount of talent and experience with that group, there was obviously a bit of a vacuum when it came to experience for players outside of The Freshies. So, entering 2023-24, Dawn Staley will be going through a transition and rebuild, though she certainly has the kind of roster talent needed for a deep run.

    Kamilla Cardoso is one of the country’s most exciting players. At 6-7 (and with a wingspan that can feel like 7-6 to opposing players), Cardoso will anchor both ends of the floor. If Staley can bring out a bit more of an edge in her, there won’t be a team in the country that can contend on every play in the paint against the Gamecocks. Cardoso could simply be that good and that dominant if she takes her game to the next level.

    The big remaining question will be the same one that was a downfall for South Carolina last season: lack of consistent outside shooters. There seem to be options, though. Bree Hall was a 36 percent shooter in limited minutes last season, and Te-Hina Paopao should help out in that area — the Oregon transfer shot a career-best 42 percent from long range last season — as will the freshman star MiLaysia Fulwiley, who is dangerous from deep.

    • +Defense
    • +Paint play
    • +Rebounding
    • +Ballhandling
    • Experience
    • Outside shooting

    The Utes came into last season flying under the radar. They were unranked to start the season and didn’t crack the top 15 until Week 5, when they were 7-0. Under coach Lynne Roberts, Utah has built methodically. But with a regular-season Pac-12 title, a run to the Sweet 16 last year, and the return of its starting five this season, there’s no doubt: Utah has arrived. So, what do they do now that they’re here? (And, especially now that everyone knows it.) Handling that pressure will be one of the biggest storylines to watch with this motivated group that played eventual champs LSU the best of any tournament opponent.

    On the floor, Gianna Kneepkens, Kennady McQueen and Maty Wilke — the Wisconsin transfer — will stretch the floor with their 3-point shooting while Alissa Pili takes advantage of any space defenders give her. She and Jenna Johnson should be able to contend in the paint with any Pac-12 team, but the big remaining question is what happens when Roberts needs to turn to her bench for some post depth and production. Dasia Young and Samantha Crispe provide college experience, but a major potential difference-maker is Néné Sow, the 6-8 JUCO transfer from Belgium. She redshirted last year, so she has had a chance to get acclimated in the system, and if she’s ready to go, her length and size would be a real change up for a post group that could be the difference between a Final Four run or another second-weekend tournament exit.

    • +Continuity
    • +3-point shooting
    • +Go-to scorers
    • Post depth
    • Being targeted

    Last season’s assignment for opponents will be the same this year: Stop (or, at least, slow) Caitlin Clark. This season, there are a few wrinkles. Though Clark is a thrilling scorer and playmaker, part of her efficiency last season was that defenses couldn’t sell out on her entirely. They still had to contend with Monika Czinano in the paint and the established chemistry those two had using one another. Now, Czinano is gone, and Addison O’Grady and Hannah Stuelke — who can both be effective and efficient in their own ways — are not going to be stepping into Czinano’s shoes entirely on their own.

    If Gabbie Marshall or Kate Martin become similar complementary scorers to Clark that Czinano was a season ago, that will take some pressure off the paint and off Clark, helping the Hawkeyes find ways to win. But make no bones about it: Iowa will go as Clark goes. If she’s dropping 40-point triple-doubles, watch out. If she’s not, there better be at least two others going for 15-plus.

    Ultimately, more questions linger for Iowa than most teams. But the Hawkeyes have a player no other team has, and the kind of player who can more than make up for a plethora of questions.

    • +Caitlin Clark’s scoring
    • +Perimeter shooting
    • Paint play
    • Scorers outside Clark
    • Depth

    Addison O’Grady

    Forward / Center

    How does the Ohio State defense that led power conferences in steals per game last season (11.3) come into this season even more terrifying? Just go ahead and add the ACC defensive player of the year to your backcourt, why don’t ya? Celeste Taylor’s pickup was one of the best overall fits for any player coming out of the portal. Coach Kevin McGuff will have the ability to rotate through Taylor, Jacy Sheldon, Taylor Thierry and Rikki Harris — all of whom are absolute ball hawks — as the Buckeyes ramp up their full-court defensive pressure and drive opponents into mistakes and turnovers.

    With Taylor Mikesell’s graduation, the Buckeyes’ offensive identity needs to evolve. Mikesell accounted for almost a quarter of Ohio State’s shot attempts over the past two seasons, including more than one-third of its 3-point attempts. In her absence, Cotie McMahon — the reigning Big Ten freshman of the year — should become an even larger offensive centerpiece, especially as the Buckeyes don’t return any long-range shooters who are nearly as consistent as Mikesell.

    Though the Buckeyes lack a tall, traditional big who would be able to match up one-on-one with some of the posts on the other top-10 teams, it ultimately might not be as big of an issue for OSU given the potential of its full-court pressure and pestering perimeter defense.

    • +Backcourt play
    • +Full-court press
    • +Perimeter defense
    • +Guard depth
    • 3-point shooting
    • One-on-one post depth

    Taylor Thierry

    Guard / Forward

    Rebeka Mikulášiková

    Forward

    The return of Elizabeth Kitley and Cayla King for another season, alongside Georgia Amoore, guaranteed this group would be a preseason top-10 team and the ACC favorites. That trio is well established in Kenny Brooks’ system, and they’ll be able to help this group weather early season bumps that come along with a slew of transfers and young players entering the rotation.

    Last season, Virginia Tech relied on its starters more than almost any other team in the country. The five starters played 81 percent of the Hokies’ minutes and accounted for 88 percent of their scoring. And though Amoore, King and Kitley are talented and have an established chemistry, they won’t be able to carry the full load through the full season. But by bringing in so many transfers, it seems to indicate that Brooks might go a bit deeper into his bench if the Hokies can get production and efficiency out of that group. And that’s a fair wager considering Virginia Tech’s recent success with transfers — look no further than Taylor Soule, who came in as a grad transfer and was a bedrock for a team that went to the program’s first Final Four.

    • +Rebounding
    • +Outside shooting
    • +Half-court offense
    • Bench production
    • Rotation

    Matilda Ekh

    Guard / Forward

    Olivia Summiel

    Guard / Forward

    Indiana played eight games in the middle of the season with this starting five when Grace Berger was hurt, and the Hoosiers finished 7-1 against quality opponents, including tournament teams North Carolina and Illinois. This group knows how to play together and has a dominant offensive unit, even if there is nothing flashy about it. Mackenzie Holmes is one of the best screeners and pick-and-roll finishers in college basketball, and she’s afforded the space to work thanks to shooting threats surrounding her. Sara Scalia, Sydney Parrish and Yarden Garzon all shot at least 38.7 percent from 3-point range last season, and Chloe Moore-McNeil wasn’t too far behind at 36.2 percent.

    Defensively, Indiana is solid, if predictable. The Hoosiers execute man coverages well and don’t send extra help on the pick-and-roll, trusting their guards to maneuver through screens and Holmes to navigate the space between the ballhandler and the roller. A healthy Holmes had the mobility to contend with just about everyone the Hoosiers faced last season other than Caitlin Clark.

    The formula works, but Indiana will have to introduce some wrinkles to adapt to specific opponents. The Hoosiers don’t have a great answer for teams with deep shooting threats or athletic guards who can muscle their way to the basket. Indiana needs to find some diversity in its blueprint during the regular season to avoid being matchup-dependent in March.

    • +Offensive flow
    • +Pick-and-roll scoring
    • +Ball control
    • Depth
    • Athleticism
    • Paint defense

    Rori Harmon will be the focal point on both ends of the floor — the defensive stalwart and first point of attack in full-court pressure, and the offensive catalyst that makes Texas run. As a junior and three-year starter, she’s an obvious name in the small circle of the most elite point guards in the country, and Vic Shaefer should rest easy that Harmon is his coach on the floor.

    While every Shaefer team is known for its defense (and this year’s iteration will be no different), the reigning Big 12 champs were also one of the country’s most balanced offensive teams last season. But without a single focal point, Texas struggled to close out tight games when it needed a scorer to step up. Case in point: The Longhorns didn’t lose a single regular-season game by more than 10 points last season. The other side of that coin? In games decided by 10 or fewer points, Texas went 4-9.

    One puzzle piece that could help there: Aaliyah Moore, a player who seemed like she would have grown into that last year. But the junior suffered a season-ending ACL tear nine games into the 2022-23 season. Her status hasn’t been made public yet but her return would be key. If she’s not ready right away, Texas won’t need to fret — Shaylee Gonzales, Taylor Jones, DeYona Gaston and Harmon can carry the load while working freshman Madison Booker into the mix.

    • +Defensive pressure
    • +Transition offense
    • +Point guard play
    • Free-throw shooting
    • Avoiding fouling
    • Closing out games

    Notre Dame had an outside chance at national title contention before two knee injuries derailed last season, and the injury to Olivia Miles is the biggest cloud hovering over this year.

    Even without Miles available at the start, this is one of the best guard groups in the country. Sonia Citron is an elite shooting guard who made 51 percent of her 2-pointers and 40 percent of her 3-pointers as a sophomore while routinely guarding opponents’ best players. The Irish should be able to leverage her off the ball even more as KK Bransford and Cassandre
    Prosper grow as ballhandlers and with the addition of super freshman Hannah Hidalgo. Hidalgo’s rampage through the U19 World Cup over the summer showcased her advanced playmaking on both ends of the court — a team that struggled to create turnovers last season now has a ball hawk at the point of attack.

    The path to victory will be pushing the pace and letting the guards get downhill early and often because the Irish are a little small, and beyond Citron, a little light on shooting. Transfer Anna DeWolfe made 35 percent of her 3-pointers at Fordham, and Maddy Westbeld was at 34.4 percent, but neither is the long-range shooter that defenses have to stay glued to. The Irish will be at their best leaning into their speed by being disruptive on defense and playing in transition offense as much as possible. When Miles returns, she’ll fit in seamlessly to that style.

    • +Playmaking
    • +Pace
    • +Paint scoring
    • Olivia Miles’ knee
    • Jump shooting
    • Post depth

    The potential scoring trifecta that Jewel Spear, Rickea Jackson and Tamari Key could be this season is really something, giving the Lady Vols a “pick your poison” type offense for opponents to try to stop. The addition of Wells — the Belmont transfer who dropped 22 on Tennessee during the 2022 NCAA Tournament — gives the Lady Vols a fourth double-digit scorer in the form of a point guard who can be both a pass-first player and a shot hunter (she shot 46 percent from beyond the arc last season).

    Even with all that offensive potential, this is Tennessee after all, so defense will be prioritized. And even without Key for the full season, the Lady Vols’ interior defense performed well, holding opponents to 47 percent shooting at the rim, per Pivot Analysis. Having Key (6-6), Jillian Hollingshead (6-5) and Jackson (6-2) gives them defensive length, versatility and shot adjusting potential in the paint that could take this defense into pretty terrifying territory. Tennessee lost its leading rebounder in Jordan Horston, but this trio should be able to clean up the glass.

    Tennessee hasn’t won the regular-season conference title in nearly a decade, but there are some promising indicators that this season in Knoxville could be special (which is something we’ve said before to no avail). But with the returners as well as the personnel turnover on other SEC teams, could this be the year that Kellie Harper gets Tennessee over the hump and brings her first banner to Rocky Top?

    • +Rebounding
    • +Scoring potential
    • +Half-court defense
    • +Late shot-clock defense
    • Bench production
    • Transition defense

    Jillian Hollingshead

    Forward

    Tess Darby

    Guard / Forward

    Sara Puckett

    Guard / Forward

    Coach Courtney Banghart’s first recruiting class has reached its senior season, and this should be the best North Carolina team yet of her tenure.
    The Tar Heels needed to add some offensive firepower this offseason, and they did so in two distinct and important ways. Lexi Donarski helps fill the role of Eva Hodgson as a designated spacer, but the former Big 12 defensive player of the year also has some teeth at the other end as a perimeter stopper. Maria Gakdeng is an offensive hub in the post as a rim protector and by providing efficient scoring, which North Carolina sorely missed last year.

    UNC resorted to one-on-one basketball too often last season — its assist percentage was in the 19th percentile of Division I, per CBB analytics. Deja Kelly turning into more of a distributor will help, but having more capable ballhandlers on the floor should improve the overall flow on offense. Paulina Paris at least took care of the ball as a freshman; now she has to figure out how to move it. Transfer Indya Nivar didn’t get much time on the ball at Stanford but should get a chance to show off what made the Apex, N.C., product one of the nation’s top guard recruits.

    North Carolina has depth in the frontcourt, too, with returning starters Alyssa Ustby and Anya Poole complemented by Gakdeng and incoming freshman Cierra Toomey, who was No. 4 in ESPN’s rankings of the class of 2023. Rotating in more bodies is a necessity considering how physically the Tar Heels play.

    • +Rim pressure
    • +Transition defense
    • Outside shooting
    • Rebounding
    • Ball movement

    Alyssa Ustby

    Guard / Forward

    Maria Gakdeng

    Forward / Center

    A year ago, no one was talking about Ole Miss. Heck, heading into the NCAA Tournament last season, no one was talking about Ole Miss. The Rebels didn’t appear in a single AP Top 25 last season. Even though they played LSU and South Carolina well in mid-February, few outside of Oxford took notice. Then they held perennial mid-major power Gonzaga to 48 points in the first round and knocked off No. 1 seed Stanford in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. People across the country took notice of Yolett McPhee-McCuin’s vaunted defensive team.

    Now, as a top-15 team with a lot of hype coming into this season — and in the SEC that feels a bit more up-for-grabs this year — how do the Rebels respond … especially with so many new faces on this roster?

    Ole Miss added transfers Kennedy Todd-Williams (North Carolina), KK Deans (Florida) and Kharyssa Richardson (Auburn). As she predicted, McPhee-McCuin did “damage in the portal,” complementing an already-established Davis-Collins-Scott starting core. So, the talent is there and the fits — on defense, especially — seem obvious.

    Offensively, considering the Rebels lost five games last season by single digits, this side of the ball could see some growth. One big area: the 3-point line. Though Ole Miss’ offensive system isn’t predicated on a ton of long-range shots, the Rebels shot worse than 30 percent from deep last season (and their highest-volume 3-point shooter only 28 percent). That’s not a great recipe for success even if the 3 ball isn’t the highest priority. But McPhee-McCuin might’ve started to answer part of this question with two transfers — Deans shot 38 percent while Todd-Williams hit 32 percent on 3s last season.

    • +Defensive execution
    • +Paint protection
    • +Rebounding
    • +Transition defense
    • 3-point shooting
    • Handling increased expectations

    Kennedy Todd-Williams

    Guard

    Kharyssa Richardson

    Forward

    No matter how much continuity Maryland has, Brenda Freese manages to consistently construct one of the country’s best offenses. The Terrapins play fast and have pristine spacing. Abby Meyers may be gone, but Maryland still has three players who shot at least 39 percent from 3-point range last season (Lavender Briggs, Brinae Alexander and Bri McDaniel), plus Jakia Brown-Turner, who made nearly 42 percent of her 3s in four seasons at NC State.

    The problem for the Terrapins is lack of playmaking. Shyanne Sellers returns as the point guard, but she’ll have to score more with the graduations of Meyers and Diamond Miller, and there isn’t as much ballhandling in the starting lineup. Perhaps Maryland won’t have to worry about half-court execution if it can get out in transition and rain 3-pointers, but defenses that can slow the pace may find success against the Terrapins.

    Maryland’s depth could be an issue. Three of last season’s freshmen transferred, leaving five returnees and two incoming transfers. The good news is that the Terrapins brought in the No. 7 freshman class in the country, led by McDonald’s All-American wing Riley Nelson. Hawa Doumbouya also adds some needed size in the middle – at 6-7, she’s the only player on the roster taller than 6-2. They could be called upon to contribute right away.

    • +Coaching
    • +Offensive spacing
    • +Transition
    • Frontcourt rotation
    • Isolation scoring
    • Depth

    Brinae Alexander

    Guard / Forward

    Faith Masonius

    Guard / Forward

    The Seminoles return their three top scorers while adding multiple players who should bolster their offensive potential. Alexis Tucker, the UCSB transfer, averaged 14 points a game last season while Sakyia White averaged 18. Throw into the mix Carla Viegas, the Spanish sharpshooter who shot 45 percent from beyond the arc at the FIBA U18 European Championship. She and Amaya Bonner will bring a one-two scoring punch off the bench.

    Those additional scorers should make life slightly less difficult for Ta’Niya Latson, the reigning ACC freshman of the year who was an absolute matchup nightmare last season. Though FSU should have scoring threats across the board, make no bones about it, Latson will be the No. 1 option. Despite missing the postseason with an injury, she has been 100 percent since the spring and will come into this season with a similar offensive propensity, but with a focus on becoming a more disciplined defender.

    Post depth and paint presence will be the real question marks for the Seminoles, who have only three players 6-2 or taller. Makayla Timpson was one of 11 power conference players to average more than two blocks per game last season (she averaged 2.6), and the Seminoles’ overall rim protection was quite good (per Pivot Analysis, FSU’s opponents shot just 44 percent at the rim). But developing depth in the paint will be key to fight Virginia Tech and Notre Dame for control of the ACC.

    • +Transition offense
    • +Pace
    • +Latson’s injury recovery

    Fresh off its first Sweet 16 appearance in 21 years, Colorado returns six of its top seven players in total minutes and is in prime position to contend for a Pac-12 title in the conference’s swan song.

    The Buffaloes are once again led by Quay Miller and Jaylyn Sherrod. Miller’s versatility as a forward shines, especially in her ability to operate in the midrange and beyond the arc as a scorer and passer. Sherrod’s game is a little more paint-bound than ideal for a 5-7 guard, but her ability to turn the corner, get to the basket and spray out to the 3-point line is useful when she’s surrounded by shooters. Miller has upped her 3-point percentage every year at Colorado, getting to 33 percent in 2022-23, and she’s joined by some veritable scorers in Frida Formann, Kindyll Wetta and incoming players Maddie Nolan and Kennedy Sanders.

    With a frontcourt of Miller and Aaronette Vonleh each standing at 6-3, the Buffaloes can get outmatched inside. They shot just above league-average in the paint and weren’t very good at getting second-chance opportunities or blocking shots last season. The defense holds up due to its speed and activity, especially on the perimeter. However, bigger opposing posts like Rayah Marshall and Cameron Brink, along with guards who put pressure on the rim, could present a problem.

    • +Continuity
    • +Forcing turnovers
    • +Transition offense
    • Fouling on defense
    • Drawing fouls
    • Interior size

    Outside of Cameron Brink, Hannah Jump and Haley Jones, rotations for the Cardinal last season seemed to vary wildly. That might not be as much of an issue this season given the shorter roster for Tara VanDerveer. And though that lack of depth could be a downfall (especially if particular players get into foul trouble — cough, Cam Brink, cough), fewer players might also end up being a good thing as Stanford potentially settles on — by necessity — a core group more quickly.

    With that smaller rotation, every player will need to expand her game. While Brink will anchor both ends of the floor, she’ll need to make sure she plays within herself and the system so her minutes aren’t limited by fouls. Stanford will be significantly worse off anytime Brink needs to be on the bench. If Talana Lepolo makes a jump similar to Kiana Williams from her freshman to sophomore seasons, the Cardinal could be in good hands as she becomes more consistent and gets more involved as a scorer. Jump has been an excellent 3-point shooter, but if she can at least threaten more as a three-level scorer and distributor, Stanford will be much better off.

    Kiki Iriafen could raise the ceiling. Her potential on offense and defense could help separate this group. Her free-throw shooting needs to improve, especially as she gets more involved in the paint on offense, but the possibilities for Iriafen and Brink playing in tandem and off one another could give the Cardinal a dynamic unit to build around.

    • +Rebounding
    • +3-point shooting
    • Depth
    • Multiple distributors

    Jeff Walz is well aware of the new reality of college basketball. As he said during the NCAA Tournament: There’s Selection Sunday, then Portal Monday. And even though the Cardinals lost one of the country’s best players (Hailey Van Lith) as a transfer, Walz reloaded in impressive fashion.

    Jayda Curry is the new jitterbug scoring guard running the show, and her hot shooting stretch (48 percent on 2-pointers and 3-pointers in the last five games) to end the season for Cal provides excitement for playing off the ball with more help. She’ll get that in the form of Sydney Taylor, who averaged at least 15.6 points each of the last three seasons while improving her 3-point percentage every year, and Kiki Jefferson, who put up at least 16.2 points per game the last three seasons. Combined with Olivia Cochran inside, scoring shouldn’t be an issue. Curry and Jefferson will need a crash course in defending the Louisville way, however, because neither came from programs that emphasized that end of the floor.

    The Cardinals have grown accustomed to integrating hordes of transfers over the past few years. But Walz doesn’t have a veteran floor general or even a natural point guard this year with the departures of Van Lith and Mykasa Robinson. Still, expect Louisville to once again coalesce by March, even if there are growing pains.

    • +Coaching
    • +Shot creation
    • +Perimeter scoring
    • Post depth
    • Point guard play
    • Chemistry

    In coach Nicki Collen’s third season, Baylor has a serious chance to put up massive offensive numbers despite losing two of its top-three scorers. Andrews returns as the Bears’ leading scorer (15 points per game last season), and she has around her five others who scored in double digits in their most recent full seasons — Darianna Littlepage-Buggs (11 PPG, Baylor), Aijha Blackwell (15 PPG, Missouri 2021-22), Jada Walker (13 PPG, Kentucky), Dre’Una Edwards (17 PPG, Kentucky 2021-22) and Madison Bartley (14 PPG, Belmont). Balancing expectations and shot distribution with so many scorers is ultimately a good problem, but it’s a problem nonetheless.

    Add to that core scoring group Yaya Felder, the Ohio transfer who can attack the paint and put pressure on defenses, as well as 6-7 freshman Lety Vasconcelos, a solid passer with good touch around the rim who gives Baylor a lob option deep. Each brings a unique skillset, allowing the Bears to go through different players as Collen throws out versatile lineups without many redundancies at each position.

    The flip side? Players will need to adjust to working in Baylor’s schemes with teammates who attack the game in distinct manners. Building cohesion while maintaining that versatility will be Collen’s priority through camp and in early games.

    • +Scoring potential
    • +Ball movement
    • +Depth
    • +Pick-and-roll action
    • Cohesion
    • Shot distribution

    Bella Fontleroy

    Guard / Forward

    Aijha Blackwell

    Guard / Forward

    Darianna Littlepage-Buggs

    Guard / Forward

    In Shauna Green’s first year, Illinois put together one of the most impressive year-over-year turnarounds in women’s college hoops. Now in Year 2, with all five starters returning, the Illini are a dangerous top-25 team in a conference that could prepare them for a deeper postseason run.

    Last year, lack of depth hurt the Illini, especially as the season wore on, but with another full season of recruiting (and transfer portal recruiting), Illinois could prove to be a deeper team. Illinois’ top six will look the same but the two key additions — Camille Hobby and Gretchen Dolan — could be big difference makers.

    Hobby comes to Illinois from NC State, where she averaged eight points and four rebounds a game as a senior. As a 6-3 center, she gives the Illini more depth in the paint alongside Kendall Bostic and Brynn Shoup-Hill. Dolan, a freshman, averaged 39 points a game as a senior and ended her high school career with 2,622 points. To bring Hobby, Jada Peebles and Dolan off the bench should give Green the kind of depth and fresh legs she didn’t have last season.

    • +Experience
    • +Half-court offense
    • +3-point shooting
    • Defensive consistency
    • Rebounding

    Last season, USC played in the muck. The Trojans worked so hard to slow the pace and be disruptive on defense to break opponents’ offensive flow. It was tough to execute, and tough to watch for long stretches, but it was how they had to play to account for their offensive deficiencies.

    Now, the Trojans have 3-point shooters by raiding the Ivy League for McKenzie Forbes (Harvard) and Kayla Padilla (Penn) and adding an off-the-bounce scorer and creator in JuJu Watkins. If Watkins is as dynamic as advertised, she’ll be an offense unto herself. She and Rayah Marshall, who was already one of the nation’s finest defensive centers as a sophomore, are the foundations for USC on both ends. For the Trojans to take a meaningful step forward, however, Marshall has to become a passable scorer — her true shooting percentage of 42.4 was in the bottom fifth for centers last year.

    This is the second straight season that Gottlieb must weave together a patchwork roster, as only three rotation players (plus Clarice Akunwafo) remain from last year’s roster. The hope is that Watkins can provide some structure on offense while the defensive integrity from 2022-23 remains.

    • +Interior defense
    • +Athleticism
    • +3-point shooting
    • Passing
    • Experience
    • Paint scoring

    It’s not out of the question to think Wes Moore might have four freshmen in his main rotation, as the Wolfpack welcome four top-100 recruits, including ninth-ranked Zoe Brooks, who famously won the 2022 WNBA All-Star skills challenge alongside Sabrina Ionescu. But at the start of the season, expect Moore to lean on whatever continuity and veteran presence NC State does have, as well as the Wolfpack’s pace.

    Aziaha James and Saniya Rivers are two of the nation’s fastest players with the ball, each dynamite at getting into the paint, and together create a devastating open floor attack. The two guards had the best plus-minuses on the team last season, suggesting the Wolfpack are better off when they lean on that athleticism. Neither is a pure point guard, but their ability to turn the corner on defenders allows them to make plays. Brooks has this same burst to keep the tempo going when she comes off the bench.

    Katie Peneueta arrives from Sacramento State having canned 46 percent of her 3-pointers over two seasons, and River Baldwin likes to spot up from distance and hit trail jumpers in transition. But if the frontcourt needs shaking up, reigning WAC defensive player of the year Lizzy Williamson is ready to step in for Baldwin, and Madison Hayes provides a small-ball spacing element that Mimi Collins doesn’t.

    • +Speed
    • +Athleticism
    • +Dribble penetration
    • Youth
    • Chemistry
    • Ball movement

    Creighton is a model of consistency in an otherwise chaotic college basketball landscape. Jim Flanery has been a part of the program for more than 30 years, the last 20 as head coach, and his offensive system has remained relatively unchanged the past few seasons. It helps that the core four Bluejays (Lauren Jensen, Morgan Maly, Molly Mogensen and Emma Ronsiek) are all entering at least their third year at Creighton. The Bluejays will get into their offense deliberately and methodically, using east-west ball movement and screening actions to get layups and 3s. Their shot chart is an analytics dream.

    The only problem on offense is when jumpers don’t fall. Opponents can’t really take them out of what the Bluejays do — the movement generally works, but there is volatility in relying on such a high percentage of outside shots.
    Defense is another story. Creighton still doesn’t have the size inside to effectively protect the rim, and teams with more strength and athleticism can blow by its perimeter defense. Creighton should try more switching this year considering the players’ familiarity with one another and the like-sized rotation, or even throw out some junk defenses to keep opponents out of the paint. Flanery needs to take advantage of team chemistry on defense as well.

    • +Offensive system
    • +Continuity
    • +Efficiency
    • Size
    • Interior Defense
    • Athleticism

    Morgan Maly

    Guard / Forward

    The only team on this list that didn’t make the tournament last year, Texas A&M is in line to be one of the most improved programs in the country. Fortunately, there’s nowhere to go but up after finishing 9-20 overall and 2-14 in the SEC last season.

    The main source for optimism is second-year forward Janiah Barker, who was an absolute force in the 19 games she was available during her freshman year. Barker is excellent driving to her right and is an awesome play finisher on cuts, as a spot-up shooter, and in transition. The less creating she has to do, the better, which makes it important that the Aggies cleaned up in the transfer portal, starting with point guard Endyia Rogers.

    Rogers has been a disciplined distributor at two stops before College Station and has oodles of talent to work with between Barker, Sydney Bowles, and transfers Lauren Ware and Aicha Coulibaly. Texas A&M also brings in three top-100 perimeter recruits in Kylie Marshall, Solè Williams and Erica Moon, allowing Joni Taylor to use multiple ballhandlers when necessary.

    Coulibaly and Ware add paint protection to a team that has struggled defensively. Ware can play next to Barker in the frontcourt in smaller lineups, or the Aggies have enough depth with Jada Malone off the bench to play units with three bigs. Things didn’t come together for Texas A&M in Year 1 of the Taylor era, but Gary Blair went 2-14 in the SEC in his first year with the Aggies, too. There’s reason to have hope with this new roster.

    • +Point guard play
    • +Offensive versatility
    • +Frontcourt depth

    Also considered: Arizona, Duke, Kansas State, Miami

    (Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos, from left, of Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese and Paige Bueckers: Maddie Meyer, Justin Tofoya, G Fiume / Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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