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Today is election day in Russia but there’s no suspense. 71-year-old Vladimir Putin will be named the winner as he has been over the last 24 years. This time, as often, his challengers died; one, after an explosion on a plane and, Alexey Navalny, Putin’s leading rival, who died last month in an Arctic prison camp. Putin has killed nearly all internal opposition to his unprovoked war in Ukraine. And yet, many courageous Russians continue the struggle outside the country. We met some of them in a city you might think of as the capital of free Russia.
It’s 500 miles west of Moscow, the city of Vilnius, in Lithuania where there is no love lost for Russia.
Lithuania is a democracy of about 3 million people and a NATO ally. Vilnius, the capital, is clothed in the colors of Ukraine. The city changed the Russian embassy’s address to “Heroes of Ukraine Street.” And Putin is reminded the international court in the Hague is waiting with his arrest warrant. Since Putin’s 2022 invasion, Lithuania has welcomed more than 2,500 Russian exiles.
Mantas Adomenas: It is our policy to provide shelter to all freedom fighters.
Mantas Adomenas served as Lithuania’s deputy foreign minister from 2020 until last August.
Scott Pelley: I haven’t seen so many Ukrainian flags since I was in Kyiv. Why do your people feel so strongly about this?
Mantas Adomenas: Our freedom, our independence, our sort of security is being defended in the battlefields in Ukraine. Ukrainians are dying so that we can be safe.
Scott Pelley: There are many more Russian dissidents who would like to come to Lithuania. Can you accept any more?
Mantas Adomenas: Yes, I think we can accept. Of course— we will accommodate as many as needed and to provide them with possibility to work for the freedom and democracy in Russia.
60 Minutes
One of the Russian exiles, in Lithuania, working for freedom and democracy is a crusading mom. Two years ago, Anastasia Shevchenko fled Putin’s regime.
Anastasia Shevchenko: This is a terrorist regime. They are threatening other countries with oil, gas, nuclear weapon, and grain. They are threatening us with our children, with our parents, with our lives, and so on.
More than anything, it was her daughter, Alina, severely disabled at birth, that made Shevchenko an activist against Putin. Back then, the family was in southern Russia and Alina was in a Russian government nursing home.
Scott Pelley: Alina could not speak, could not communicate?
Anastasia Shevchenko: No. She was like a one-week child, like a baby. She was 17, but even, you know, to feed her, it was a whole science, because she needed blended food. You need to hold her in a special position.
Shevchenko cared for Alina much of the time because the Russian nursing facility was short on staff and supplies.
Anastasia Shevchenko: I was struggling to get medication for my daughter, begging in the pharmacy that she needed it. It was very important for her health. They said, “No, we just don’t have it, because the ministry forgot to order it this month and you need to wait.” I decided, I’m not going to keep silence. I’m going to stand out and to speak out.
She spoke out through a Russian democracy group called Open Russia. It was tolerated 10 years ago and Shevchenko organized protests in her hometown. But in 2019, the Kremlin cracked down. Shevchenko was arrested and her lawyer warned her she would be shocked by what the police had already done.
Anastasia Shevchenko: He showed me the screenshots of me– in my bed. And I realized that they had installed the video camera into the air conditioning unit above my bed. and they have been watching me for six months in my bedroom.
A Russian court ordered Shevchenko into house arrest. She couldn’t visit or care for Alina. It wasn’t long before her daughter developed pneumonia. By the time a judge granted Shevchenko a pass to the hospital, Alina was unconscious.
Anastasia Shevchenko: I spent– maybe ten minutes, holding her hand, because that’s what I do when my children are ill. When you hold their hand, they feel better. But this time, she was cold. She didn’t feel me. And she died in an hour.
60 Minutes
In 2021, Shevchenko was given a four-year suspended sentence. But when Putin invaded Ukraine, the next year, she decided to flee Russia. From her southern city, she took her two surviving children on an 1,100 mile drive. A U.S.-based democracy group arranged Lithuanian visas.
Scott Pelley: What does this tell us about Russia today?
Anastasia Shevchenko: It’s enough to write something on social media. Just one sentence, and you can be imprisoned for years. They are listening to your phone calls. They’re watching you in your bedroom. They are controlling you.
Breaking that control is why Sergei Davidis also left Russia for Lithuania in 2022.
Scott Pelley: You would be in a Russian prison just for doing this interview.
Sergei Davidis: Oh, for sure, for sure
In Moscow, Davidis helped lead one of Russia’s largest human rights groups called Memorial. It won the Nobel Peace Prize two years ago but now it’s banned. He told us…
Sergei Davidis (translation): Almost every day there are more and more arrests. We hear news about new political arrests. And apart from the legal side of it, more often than before, there’s violence and torture.
Davidis heads Memorial’s project to support political prisoners. He told us he has confirmed 680 in prison today but he believes the actual number is multiples of that. Since 2022, Russians can be sentenced to 15 years just for criticizing the war– on the street or in the media.
Sergei Davidis (translation): One of the consequences of the war was a complete wipe out of independent mass media, a prohibition of any opinion that’s not under control of the government.
60 Minutes
Independent newsrooms in Russia have been forced to close. Government-controlled newscasts report only the absurd lie that the war is self-defense against Nazis. This host says, “we are on the side of good against the forces of absolute evil, embodied by the Ukrainian Nazi battalions.”
Tatyana Felgenhauer: People are scared. So they feel lonely. They feel terribly lonely.
Tatyana Felgenhauer and Aleksandr Plyuschev were talk radio hosts on a prominent Moscow station. They were allowed to speak their minds until the day Putin launched his war.
Aleksandr Plyuschev: It was my morning show. I said, “It’s half past 6:00. Good morning. War began.”
“War began” and within two weeks, their station was forced to close.
Now, Plyuschev and Felgenhauer are in Vilnius, streaming, daily, into Russia on YouTube. Putin silenced Facebook, “X” and Instagram but YouTube may be too popular for the Kremlin to block, so far.
Tatyana Felgenhauer: This is the only chance to talk about the war honestly because the propaganda tries to create this feeling that you are completely alone if you are against the war.
Scott Pelley: Why does this mean so much to you?
Tatyana Felgenhauer: Really, I would hate myself if I am silent or pretending that everything is OK.
60 Minutes
If Russian radio and TV stations are allowed only Kremlin talking points…
…we saw a Lithuanian station telling the truth, not on a channel, but on platform number 5—to a captive Russian audience.
Because part of Russia, Kaliningrad, on the left, is separate, like Alaska from the lower 48, the Moscow-Kaliningrad train must travel through Lithuania.
The cars are sealed for the transit but at a stop in Vilnius, Russian passengers were confronted by posters of atrocities. Each read, “Putin is killing civilians in Ukraine. Do you agree with this?” The gallery testified as the train waited half an hour. There’s no way to know how much truth climbed aboard. And no one is allowed off the train, in part, because Lithuania worries about Russian agents.
Scott Pelley: Putin is infamous for attempting to attack his enemies in foreign countries. And I wonder if the Russian dissidents are safe here in Lithuania.
Mantas Adomenas: Of course, it is a major concern for us. And we spend considerable– effort in– in making sure that– dissidents are safe here and– safer than they would be, in fact, in– in many other countries.
Scott Pelley: Have there been attempts?
Mantas Adomenas: Well, I’m afraid I can’t release that information in more detail. But– let’s put it this way– that– that Russia is constantly probing and constantly trying.
And this past week, Russia may have gotten through. Leonid Volkov was attacked with a hammer outside Vilnius. Volkov, on the right, was a top aide to Putin’s late rival Alexey Navalny. Volkov’s arm was broken. The attacker fled.
Vladimir Putin’s re-election this week will bring him to his fifth term, which will cover the next six years. He enjoys support from nationalists who want to believe that today’s Russia is an exceptional nation. But Putin also has weaknesses. It’s estimated he’s lost 300,000 troops killed and wounded and Russia has a population less than half that of the United States and an economy about the size of Italy’s.
Anastasia Shevchenko: My hope is– a country where a government takes care about citizens.
Anastasia Shevchenko is free in Vilnius but she’s wanted in Russia for breaking her probation. These days she’s streaming her own YouTube show and sends medicine, food and letters to political prisoners. She’s become another voice to the isolated and the lonely and those, like her daughter, who will never escape the new iron curtain.
Anastasia Shevchenko: She was alone, no one next to her. I really feel very guilty about it. But I wouldn’t change anything in my life, I think.
Scott Pelley: Why not?
Anastasia Shevchenko: You know, the society in Russia is based on fakes. We have fake democracy, by constitution it is a democracy, fake news, fake elections And I want to be the opposite. I want to be open. I want Russia to be open.
Produced by Henry Schuster. Associate producer, Sarah Turcotte. Broadcast associate, Michelle Karim. Edited by Michael Mongulla.
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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán regularly pushes the EU to the cliff edge, but diplomats are panicking that his hostility to Ukraine is now about to finally kick the bloc over the precipice.
A brewing political crisis is set to boil over at a summit in mid-December when EU leaders are due to make a historic decision on bringing Ukraine into the 27-nation club and seal a key budget deal to throw a €50 billion lifeline to Kyiv’s flailing war economy. The meeting is supposed to signal to the U.S. that, despite the political distraction over the war in the Middle East, the EU is fully committed to Ukraine.
Those hopes look likely to be knocked off course by Orbán, a strongman who cultivates close ties with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and who is widely seen as having undermined democracy and rule of law at home. He is demanding the whole political and financial process should be put on ice until leaders agree to a wholesale review of EU support for Kyiv.
That gives EU leaders a massive headache. Although Hungary only represents 2 percent of the EU population, Orbán can hold the bloc hostage as it is supposed to act unanimously on big strategic decisions — and they hardly come bigger than initiating accession talks with Ukraine.
It’s far from the first time Orbán is throwing a spanner in the works of the EU’s sausage making machine. Indeed, he has been the most vocal opponent of sanctions against Russia ever since Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. But this time is different, EU diplomats and officials said.
“We are heading toward a major crisis,” one EU official said, who was granted anonymity to discuss confidential deliberations. One senior EU diplomat warned this could become “one of the most difficult European Councils.”
Orbán is playing the long game, said Péter Krekó, director of the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute. “Orbán has been waiting for Europe to realize that it’s not possible to win the war in Ukraine and that Kyiv has to make concessions. (…) Now, he feels his time is coming because Ukraine fatigue is going up in public opinion in many EU countries.”
In theory, there is a nuclear option on the table — one that would cut Hungary out of EU political decisions — but countries feel that emergency cord is toxic because of the precedent it would deliver on EU disunity and fragmentation. For now, the European leaders seem to be taking to their usual approach of fawning courtship of the EU’s bad boy to try to coax out a compromise.
European Council President Charles Michel, whose job it is to forge deals between the 27 leaders, is leading the softly-softly pursuit of a compromise. He travelled to Budapest earlier this week for an intense two hour discussion with Orbán. While the meeting did not reach an immediate break-through, it was useful to understand Orbán’s concerns, another EU official said.
Some EU diplomats interpret Orbán’s threats as a strategy to raise pressure on the European Commission, which is holding back €13 billion in EU funds for Hungary over concerns that the country is falling foul of the EU’s standards on rule of law.
Others however said it’s a mistake not to look beyond the immediate transactional tactics. Orbán has long been questioning the EU’s Ukraine strategy, but was largely ignored or portrayed as a puppet for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“We were watching it, amazed, but maybe we didn’t take enough time to actually listen,” a second senior EU diplomat acknowledged.
Increasingly, the leader of the Fidesz party has been isolated in Brussels. Previous peacemakers such as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel or other Orbán-whisperers from the so-called Visegrád Four — Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic — are no longer there. The expected comeback of Donald Tusk for Poland, a pro-EU and anti-Russian leader, will only heighten Orbán’s status as the lonely, defiant hold-out.
“There is no one left to talk sense into Orbán,” a third EU official said. “He is now undermining the EU from within.”
As frustration grows, the EU is weighing how to deal with the Hungarian threats.
In theory, Brussels could come out with the big guns and use the EU’s so-called Article 7 procedure against Hungary, used when a country is considered at risk of breaching the bloc’s core values. The procedure is sometimes called the EU’s “nuclear option” as it provides for the most serious political sanction the bloc can impose on a member country — the suspension of the right to vote on EU decisions.
Because of those far-reaching consequences, there is reticence to roll out this option against Hungary. When EU leaders brought in “diplomatic sanctions” against Austria in 2000, the day after the party of Austrian far-right leader Jörg Haider entered the coalition, it backfired. Many Austrians were angry at EU interference and anti-EU sentiment soared. Sanctions were lifted later that year.
There is now a widespread feeling in Brussels that Article 7 could create a similar backlash in Budapest, fueling populism and in the longer term potentially even trigger a snowball effect leading to an unintended Hungarian exit of the bloc.
Given those fears, diplomats are doubling down on ways to work around a Hungarian veto.
One option is to split the €50 billion from 2024 to 2027 for Ukraine into smaller amounts on an annual basis, three officials said. But critics warn this option would fall short in the goal of offering greater predictability and certainty to Ukraine’s struggling public finances. It would also send a bad political signal: if the EU can’t make a long term commitment to Ukraine, then how can it ask the U.S. to do the same?
The same dilemma goes for the EU’s planned military aid. EU countries could use bilateral deals rather than EU structures such as the European Peace Facility to send military aid to Ukraine — effectively freezing out Budapest. Yet this would mean that the EU as such plays no role in providing weapons, an admission of impotence that is hard to swallow and hurts EU unity toward Kyiv.
It’s “obvious” that concern is growing about EU political support for Ukraine, Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told POLITICO. “At first it’s Hungary, now, more countries are doubtful whether there’s a path.”
Asked about Hungary’s objections, Ruslan Stefanchuk, the chairman of Ukraine’s parliament, told POLITICO: “Ukraine is going to the European Union and Ukraine has followed all the recommendations (…) I want to make sure that all member states respect the progress that Ukraine has demonstrated.”
That leaves one other default option, and it’s an EU classic: kicking the can down the road and pushing key decisions on Ukraine policy to early next year. Apart from Hungary, Berlin is also struggling with the consequences of Germany’s top court wiping out €60 billion from a climate fund — thus creating a huge hole in its budget.

Such a delay would also lead to stories about fractured EU unity, said another EU diplomat. But “in the real world it wouldn’t be a problem because the Ukraine budget is fine until March 2024.”
But for others, buying time is tricky. Europe is heading to the polls in June next year, which makes sensitive decision-making harder. “Getting closer to the elections will not make things easier,” the second EU official said, while stressing that fast decisions are key for Ukraine. “For Zelenskyy, this is existential to keep up morale on the battlefield.”
Both, like another official quoted in this story, were granted anonymity to speak freely.
Increasingly, Brussels is also worried about Orbán’s long game.
There is a constant stream of attacks coming from Budapest against Brussels, on issues ranging from democratic deficit to culture wars over the EU’s migration policy. The latest example is an aggressive euroskeptic advertising campaign featuring posters targeting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen herself. The posters show von der Leyen next to Alexander Soros, the son of George Soros, chair of the Open Society Foundations, with the line: “Let’s not dance to the tune they whistle!”
“Nobody feels comfortable given what’s going on in Hungary,” Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn told reporters on Thursday. “It’s very difficult to digest given the campaign that he’s leading against the EU and against the president. When he’s asking his people many things, he’s not asking if the Union is so much worse than USSR why is he not leaving?”
But Orbán seems more eager to hijack the EU from within rather than jump ship, as the U.K. did. Increasingly, he also feels the wind is blowing his way after the recent election results in Slovakia and the Netherlands, said Krekó, where the winners are on the same page as him when it comes to Ukraine, migration or gender issues.
Hungary’s prime minister was quick to congratulate the winner of the Dutch election, the vehemently anti-EU Geert Wilders, saying that “the winds of change are here.”
“Orbán plays the long game,” the third EU official said. “With Wilders, one or two more far-right leaders in Europe and a potential return of Trump he could soon be less isolated than we all think.”
Gregorio Sorgi, Nicolas Camut, Stuart Lau and Jakob Hanke Vela contributed reporting.
CORRECTION: This story has been amended to correct a quote on Ukraine’s budget.
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Barbara Moens, Nicholas Vinocur and Jacopo Barigazzi
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As the world’s eyes turn from Ukraine to Israel and Gaza, NATO countries on the alliance’s eastern edge are staring down Russia and strengthening their presence on the bloc’s “most exposed” flank.
Lithuania, Poland, and other NATO nations close to Russia and Belarus are bolstering defense and their “deterrence posture on the Eastern flank,” including protection for the contentious Suwałki Gap, Vilnius’ defense minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, told Newsweek.
A small strip of land close to the Polish-Lithuanian border that links Belarus to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, the Suwałki Gap is a constant, rumbling concern in eastern Europe. With Poland and Lithuania staunch allies of Ukraine—and Belarus firmly standing with Russia—the Suwałki Gap has been intermittently described as NATO’s weak point and the alliance’s most fortified boundary.
“Together with our allies, we are creating [the] right set of capabilities and plans to defend every inch of NATO’s territory,” Anušauskas said. Lithuania is investing in its armed forces and its supplies and NATO’s presence close to the Gap, he added, although the strategically important strip of land will “remain a fundamental challenge.”
“In geographical terms, the Baltic States remain as the most exposed [of] NATO’s territory, which requires specific measures to ensure credible deterrence and defense,” Anušauskas explained.
Russia used Belarus as a springboard to launch its invasion of Ukraine 20 months ago, and reignited fears over the Suwałki Gap earlier this year when exiled Wagner mercenaries moved en masse to Belarusian bases close to it.
In the midst of the heightened tensions around Belarus, Poland and Lithuania, a Russian lawmaker told Moscow-controlled state television that Wagner forces could be in Belarus to seize the Suwałki Gap. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko also commented in mid-July that Wagner mercenaries arriving and training in Belarus after leaving Russia were itching to move “westward” towards the country’s border with Poland.
Poland quickly moved to swell its military presence close to the Gap, and Warsaw’s defense minister, Mariusz Błaszczak, declared: “We care about the security of the eastern flank!” Lithuania’s defense ministry also told Newsweek in late July it was “actively monitoring” Russian mercenary activity around the Suwałki Gap.
The main concern for the Baltic nations is that Russia could mount some form of military incursion into NATO via the Gap from Belarus, burrowing into Europe via the strip of land on the way to Kaliningrad.
“It facilitates the possible land routes for NATO troops in between Central Europe and the Baltic States,” Anušauskas said. With Belarus “basically integrated into Russia’s military planning,” as Anušauskas put it, it is not hard to see how Moscow could move a large number of its troops through it into NATO heartlands, while having the ability to resupply them via the port at Kaliningrad.
Any incursion of this type on a NATO country would likely spark a collective, emphatic response under the alliance’s Article 5, which regards an attack on a member as an attack on all other member states.
But despite the worries of the NATO governments close to the Gap, the Kremlin is not inclined to do so, not least because of NATO’s attention on the territory, Western experts say.
It is “baffling” to consider the Gap a significant possible flashpoint now, and it is very hard to see how Russia could, or would want to, mount such an attack on NATO, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Chatham House think tank, told Newsweek.
For the moment, Russia has neither the intent nor the capability to mount such an assault on NATO, agreed Emily Ferris, a research fellow specializing in Russia at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank. It is “quite unrealistic” to imagine Russia could launch a ground operation in the Gap as it fights its war in Ukraine, she told Newsweek.
“Russian troops are so embroiled in eastern Ukraine at the moment, but very hard to see where there would be even breathing room for them to consider a land assault on another country,” she said. It would “be a declaration of war in Europe” that Moscow shows all the signs of wanting to avoid, she continued. And while Kaliningrad, and the Baltic Russian bases there, may be “inherently vulnerable,” this is balanced out by Russia’s significant military presence and missile systems based there, she added.
“The idea of attacking a NATO state, I think, is a red line—even for Moscow,” Ferris said.
The Wagner troops that loomed on the alliance’s eastern flank have retreated as a threat in recent weeks; reports have suggested their Belarusian bases have been dismantled, and many fighters have returned to Ukraine.
But the geography hasn’t changed, and the NATO countries do not forget the “range of provocations from Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarusian sides” described by Anušauskas. The Wagner formations may have faded, but Lithuania remembers “orchestrated migration waves” and “increased tactical nuclear threatening” over the last two years, he said.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin is not worried about Western sanctions — quite the opposite, in fact.
Faced with the prospect of a 12th round of EU sanctions — which could include trade in anything from diamonds to needles — the Russian leader brushed off the plan as ridiculous and took a jab at Europe and its crawling bedbug problem.
“Perhaps the less junk, the better. There is less of a chance of bedbugs coming here from large European cities,” Putin joked on Wednesday, reported Russian state-run news agency TASS.
Several European cities, including Paris, are battling an infestation of bedbugs in recent months. The tiny insects have swarmed public transport, raising alarm among residents and public officials, and sending cities into a frenzy.
Last month, French intelligence even blamed Russian propaganda for stoking fears about the bedbugs by posting fake articles that looked like they were written by reputable French newspapers.
Putin’s comment comes as the EU is preparing a new round of sanctions against Russia, which is likely to include export restrictions on welding machines, chemicals and diamonds, among other items. According to EUobserver, Lithuania has proposed a plan which also includes the ban of exports of “nails, tacks, drawing pins” and “sewing needles, knitting needles.”
Putin — whose full-scale invasion of Ukraine is heading toward the two-year mark — has ridiculed the proposal, saying that Western officials “are now simply reaching the point of absurdity in their fantasies.”
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NATO member Poland held its biggest military parade since the Cold War in an event that marked victory over Soviet forces in 1920 and showcased the country’s state-of-the-art weaponry as war rages in neighbouring Ukraine and defence takes centre-stage ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for October.
The Armed Forces Day parade on Tuesday marked the 103rd anniversary of Poland’s victory over the Soviet Union’s Red Army in the Battle of Warsaw in 1920, during which Polish troops defeated Bolshevik forces advancing on Europe.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has made boosting the Polish armed forces a priority for the country’s ruling nationalists Law and Justice (PiS). With the country’s election campaign in full swing, the immense display of military hardware on Tuesday provided a chance for the government to promote its security credentials.
“The defence of our eastern border, the border of the European Union and of NATO is today a key element of Poland’s state interest,” Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, the chief commander of the armed forces, said in his opening speech at the event.
Crowds, waving national white-and-red flags, gathered in scorching temperatures that reached 35C (95F) to see United States-made Abrams tanks, HIMARS mobile artillery systems and Patriot missile systems on parade through the streets of the capital.
Also on display were F-16 fighter planes, South Korean FA-50 fighters and K9 howitzers. A US Air Force F-35 roared overhead in a sign Poland was also buying these advanced fighter planes. Polish-made equipment including Krab tracked gun howitzers and Rosomak armoured transporters were also featured.
Some 2,000 troops from Poland and other NATO countries took part in the parade as well as 200 military vehicles and other equipment and almost 100 aircraft.
“August 15 is not only an opportunity to pay homage to the heroes of the victorious Battle of Warsaw and to thank contemporary soldiers for defending our homeland,” Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak told troops and onlookers who had gathered near the Vistula River.
“It is also a perfect day to show our strength, to show that we have built powerful armed forces that will effectively defend our borders without hesitation,” he said.
Dziękuję, że byliście dziś z żołnierzami Wojska Polskiego! #SilnaBiałoCzerwona pic.twitter.com/VaMQ09kTAK
— Mariusz Błaszczak (@mblaszczak) August 15, 2023
[Unofficial translation: Thank you for being with the soldiers of the Polish Army today!]
Poland’s army has more than 175,000 troops, an increase from approximately 100,000 eight years ago, Duda said.
He also said Poland’s defence budget this year will be a record 137 billion zlotys ($34bn) or some 4 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), the highest proportion in all of NATO.
“The goal of this huge modernisation is to equip Poland’s armed forces and create such a defence system that no one ever dares attack us, that Polish soldiers will never need to fight,” Duda said, while voicing his respect for the military.
Responding to criticism that Poland, a nation of some 37 million, was taking out huge loans to make the purchases, Duda said: “We cannot afford to be idle. This is why we are strengthening our armed forces here and now.”
“The security of Poles is priceless,” he added.
Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid, reporting from Warsaw, said that more than 100 years since the war with Soviet forces, “a shadow of war” looms once again on Poland’s borders.
“And that is why the government continues to tell its people that it needs a strong, powerful army,” he said.
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Poland’s conservative government has focused on strengthening the armed forces and spent more than $16bn on tanks, missile interceptor systems and fighter jets, many bought from the US and South Korea.
Poland has a border to the east with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad; with Lithuania, a fellow NATO member; and with Russia’s key ally Belarus as well as with Ukraine.
Military upgrades have bolstered Poland’s defence capabilities and some items replaced Soviet- and Russian-made equipment that Poland provided to Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
Poland is building one of Europe’s strongest armies to beef up deterrence against potential aggressors and has increased the number of troops to some 10,000 along its border with Belarus, where it has also built a wall to stop migrants arriving from that direction.
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Russia’s Wagner Group might carry out “sabotage actions” and their threat should not be underestimated, said Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on Thursday, warning that the mercenary group’s provocations are an attempt to destabilize NATO.
Morawiecki and Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda met at the Suwałki Gap to discuss the threat posed by the Wagner forces, some of whom have relocated to Belarus following the aborted mutiny in June against the Kremlin.
“Our borders have been stopping various hybrid attacks for years,” Morawiecki said. “Russia and Belarus are increasing their numerous provocations and intrigues in order to destabilize the border of NATO’s eastern flank.”
Nausėda echoed the sentiment, saying the presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus is a security risk for Lithuania, Poland and other NATO allies.
“We stay vigilant and prepared for any possible scenario,” Nausėda wrote on social media. Morawiecki said that the number of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus could exceed 4,000.
The Polish prime minister also thanked Lithuania for “military cooperation and for the joint promise that we will defend every piece of land of NATO countries.”
“Today, the borders of Poland and Lithuania are the borders of the free world that stops the pressure from the despotism from the East,” he said, about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing war on Ukraine.
Nausėda said that any closing of the border with Belarus is a decision that should be taken “in a coordinated way between Poland, Lithuania and Latvia,” national broadcaster LRT reported.
Some Wagner troops have moved to Belarus from Russia under a deal to end the group’s 24-hour rebellion against Moscow led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. The move immediately sparked tension with Belarusian neighbors, prompting Poland to re-station military units to the east of the country, closer to the frontier with Belarus.
Tensions escalated Tuesday when Poland moved troops to its border after accusing two Belarusian helicopters of breaching its airspace. Belarus denied the accusation, but Poland notified NATO and summoned Belarusian representatives to discuss the incident.
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Lithuania’s president said Monday that establishing a pathway for Ukraine’s NATO membership is an “achievable goal,” even as lesser security assurances have been touted by members of the military alliance ahead of a two-day summit this week.
Speaking to CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick in Vilnius, Gitanas Nauseda said various interim security assurances would be discussed when NATO members meet in the Lithuanian capital Tuesday, but he added that Ukraine ultimately had a rightful place in the military alliance.
U.S. President Joe Biden said Sunday that Washington was ready to provide security to Ukraine in a similar way as it does to Israel, offering “the weaponry they need, the capacity to defend themselves.” These comments were echoed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
“As a temporary solution on the path toward full integration of in NATO, it might be considered. And it is a quite beneficial form of cooperation. But this is not a replacement for the full-fledged membership in NATO,” Nauseda said.
“I don’t think that this is the final goal for Ukraine. The final destination of Ukraine is to be in the family of NATO alliance,” he added.
Asked whether Ukraine would receive a pathway to membership at this week’s meeting, Nauseda said it was possible.
“I think it’s [an] achievable goal and this is a very important goal, too,” he said.
Kyiv applied for fast-track NATO membership in September 2022 in retaliation against Moscow after it said it had annexed four Ukrainian regions amid its full-scale invasion. NATO’s European expansion has long been considered a point of provocation by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Earlier Monday, Ukraine’s foreign ninister, Dmytro Kuleba, said NATO had dropped the Membership Action Plan (MAP) requirement for Ukraine — one of the major sticking points in accession negotiations.
Nauseda said that would simplify and speed up negotiations, and added that Ukraine was likely to see further pledges of support from NATO members during the meeting.
“Ukraine needs [a] political signal but Ukraine needs also practical support, and I think this support will be granted,” he said.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (L) and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda speak to the media prior to the 2023 NATO Summit on July 10, 2023 in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images
It is not clear whether Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will attend this week’s summit, having previously said that he would do so only if Kyiv were given a “signal” on accession to the alliance.
However, Nauseda said he was hopeful and expectant that his counterpart would make an appearance.
“I think it’s very important to see him here in Vilnius, especially now,” he said, highlighting the rising security risks around the eastern flank. It follows the apparent relocation of Russia’s Wagner forces to Belarus following the mercenary group’s failed mutiny just over two weeks ago.
“The security situation in our region is deteriorating. It’s not improving, it’s even not stable,” Nauseda said.
“We see additional capabilities sent to Kaliningrad region. Belarus as a close ally of Russia is playing a more and more important role. So we have to be aware that we have to take the decisions to strengthen all of the eastern flank.”
Another closely watched topic at the talks will be Sweden’s ongoing accession negotiations, which have faced pushback from Turkey over claims Stockholm has not done enough to crackdown on Kurdish groups that Ankara deems to be terrorists. Countries need unanimous approval from NATO’s existing 31 member states in order to join.
Nauseda said he was hopeful that a resolution could be reached with Ankara and fellow dissenter Hungary, perhaps as soon as Monday evening.
“I am still expecting that there will be some pleasant news, maybe even this evening, regarding Sweden, too,” he said.
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Washington — The Biden administration will provide cluster munitions to Ukraine, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday, vowing the U.S. will not leave Ukraine defenseless and asserting that Kyiv has promised to use the controversial weapons carefully.
The decision comes on the eve of the NATO summit in Lithuania, where President Biden is likely to face questions from allies on why the U.S. would send a weapon into Ukraine that more than two-thirds of alliance members have banned because it has a track record for causing many civilian casualties. And it was met with divided reactions from Congress, as some Democrats criticized the plan while a Republican backed it.
The munitions — which are bombs that open in the air and release scores of smaller bomblets — are seen by the U.S. as a way to get Kyiv critically needed ammunition to help bolster its offensive and push through Russian front lines. U.S. leaders debated the thorny issue for months, before Mr. Biden made the final call this week.
In an interview with CNN, Mr. Biden said it was a “very difficult decision” and that it “took me a while to be convinced to do it.” But he said Ukraine’s dwindling ammunition supply tipped the scale in favor of providing the cluster bombs.
“The main thing is they either have the weapons to stop the Russians now — keep them from stopping the Ukrainian offensive through these areas — or they don’t. And I think they needed them,” Mr. Biden said.
Sullivan also defended the decision, saying the U.S. will send a version of the munition that has a reduced “dud rate,” meaning fewer of the smaller bomblets fail to explode. The unexploded rounds, which often litter battlefields and populated civilian areas, cause unintended deaths. U.S. officials have said the U.S. will provide thousands of the rounds, but provided no specific numbers.
Pierre Crom/Getty Images
“We recognize the cluster munitions create a risk of civilian harm from unexploded ordnance,” he said during a White House briefing. “This is why we’ve deferred the decision for as long as we could. But there is also a massive risk of civilian harm if Russian troops and tanks roll over Ukrainian positions and take more Ukrainian territory and subjugate more Ukrainian civilians, because Ukraine does not have enough artillery. That is intolerable to us.”
Questioned at length about the move, Sullivan said Ukraine provided written assurances that it will use the cluster munitions “in a very careful way that is aimed at minimizing any risk to civilians.” And noting that the U.S. consulted closely with allies before finally making the decision, he said the U.S. made the determination that “we will not leave Ukraine defenseless at any point in this conflict. Period.”
According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, some cluster munitions leave behind bomblets that have a high rate of failure to explode — up to 40% in some cases. The rate of unexploded ordnance for the munitions that will be going to Ukraine is under 3% and therefore will mean fewer unexploded bombs left behind to potentially harm civilians.
A convention banning the use of cluster bombs has been joined by more than 120 countries that agreed not to use, produce, transfer or stockpile the weapons and to clear them after they’ve been used. The U.S., Russia and Ukraine are among those who have not signed on.
Ryan Brobst, a research analyst for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that while the majority of NATO members have signed on to the cluster munitions ban, several of those nearest Russia — Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Turkey — have not.
“The most important of those are Poland and Romania,” Brobst said, noting that the U.S. weapons will probably go through those countries en route to Ukraine. “While some allies raise objections, this is not going to prevent [cluster munitions] from being transferred into Ukraine.”
The cluster munitions are included in a new $800 million package of military aid the U.S. will send to Ukraine. Friday’s package, which will come from Pentagon stocks, will also include Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles and an array of ammunition, such as rounds for howitzers and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, officials said.
Tony Overman / AP
Providing the cluster bombs will also ease the pressure on limited U.S. ammunition stockpiles. The U.S. has been taking massive amounts of 155 mm rounds from Pentagon stocks and sending them to Ukraine, creating concerns about eating into American stores. The cluster munitions, which are fired by the same artillery as the conventional 155 mm, will give Ukraine a highly lethal capability and also allow them to strike more Russian targets using fewer rounds.
At a Pentagon briefing Thursday, Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said the Defense Department has “multiple variants” of the munitions and “the ones that we are considering providing would not include older variants with [unexploding] rates that are higher than 2.35%.”
He said the U.S. “would be carefully selecting rounds with lower dud rates, for which we have recent testing data.”
So far the reactions from allies have been muted. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stressed on Friday that the military alliance takes no position on cluster munitions and it is a decision that allies will make. And Germany, which has signed the ban treaty, said it won’t provide the bombs to Ukraine, but expressed understanding for the American position.
“We’re certain that our U.S. friends didn’t take the decision about supplying such ammunition lightly,” German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit told reporters in Berlin. “We need to remember once again that Russia has already used cluster ammunition at a large scale in its illegal war of aggression against Ukraine.”
Oleksandra Ustinova, a member of Ukraine’s parliament who has been advocating that Washington send more weapons, noted that Ukrainian forces have had to disable mines from much of the territory they are winning back from Russia. As part of that process, Ukrainians will also be able to catch any unexploded ordnance from cluster munitions.
“We will have to de-mine anyway, but it’s better to have this capability,” Ustinova said.
The last large-scale American use of cluster bombs was during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, according to the Pentagon. But U.S. forces considered them a key weapon during the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, according to Human Rights Watch. In the first three years of that conflict, it is estimated the U.S.-led coalition dropped more than 1,500 cluster bombs in Afghanistan.
Proponents of banning cluster bombs say they kill indiscriminately and endanger civilians long after their use.
Marta Hurtado, speaking for the U.N. human rights office, said Friday that “the use of such munitions should stop immediately and not be used in any place.”
“We will urge the Russian Federation and Ukraine to join the more than 100 states that have ratified the convention of cluster munitions and that effectively ban their use,” she added.
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A small group of Western allies are engaged in “advanced” and “frantic, last-minute” negotiations to finalize a security assurance declaration for Ukraine ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Lithuania, according to four officials familiar with the talks.
For weeks, the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany have been discussing the issue with Kyiv, and have also reached out to other allies in NATO, the EU and the G7. The idea is to create an “umbrella” for all countries willing to provide Ukraine with ongoing military aid, even if the details vary from country to country.
The effort is part of broader negotiations at NATO and among several groups of nations over how Western allies should display long-term support for Ukraine.
Kyiv wants to join NATO as soon as possible, giving it access to the alliance’s vaunted Article 5 clause — an attack on one is an attack on all. But many allies within the alliance broadly agree Ukraine can only join after the war ends, at the earliest.
So the alliance’s biggest powers have been working to see what stop-gap security commitments they can each give Ukraine in the meantime. That view is not universal, however, with countries along NATO’s eastern flank pushing for Ukraine to get a quicker path to ascension, even as the fighting rages on.
The Western powers’ goal is to unveil their umbrella framework around NATO’s annual summit, according to officials in Berlin, Paris, London and Brussels, all of whom spoke under the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the discussions. The two-day event starts Tuesday in Vilnius.
“A discussion is under way; it’s quite advanced, in fact it’s very advanced, and we’re very hopeful that it can be concluded by the end of the summit,” a French official told reporters at a briefing.
A senior NATO diplomat agreed, telling reporters in a separate briefing there are “frantic last-minute negotiations” occurring at the moment “on what this should look like.”
U.S. President Joe Biden is slated to meet with U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Monday in London, where their two staffs will huddle to try and iron out last-minute details, according to a second NATO diplomat with knowledge of the plans. On the U.S. side, Pentagon policy chief Colin Kahl is tasked with getting the agreement to the finish line.
The initiative may ultimately amount to promises to continue much of the aid allies are already providing: arms, equipment, training, financing and intelligence. But the intent is to offer a more-permanent signal of unity for Ukraine, especially as Kyiv is unlikely to get the firm pledge on NATO membership it wants at this week’s summit.
“It is basically a guarantee towards Ukraine that we will, for a very long time to come, we will equip their armed forces, we will finance them, we will advise them, we will train them in order for them to have a deterrent force against any future aggression,” the senior NATO diplomat said.
Many specifics of this support would be left for later, however. The diplomat said it would be up to each interested country to bilaterally determine with Ukraine “what your commitment will be. And it could be anything, from air defense to tanks to whatever.”
Last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz issued an “appeal to all countries that want to support Ukraine,” saying they should “make decisions for themselves that enable them to continue to keep up that support for one, two, three, and, if need be, more years, because we do not know how long the military conflict will last.”

Separate from the security assurance declaration that Western powers are finalizing, NATO is also drawing up new ways to aid Ukraine’s military for years to come.
At the summit, NATO will agree on plans to help modernize Ukraine’s defenses, alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Friday. The plan, he said, will involve “a multi-year program of assistance to ensure full interoperability between the Ukrainian armed forces and NATO.”
That multi-year effort will also focus on Ukrainian military modernization programs, and like the “umbrella” initiative, will depend on individual countries contributing what they see fit.
NATO leaders will also create a new NATO-Ukraine forum, giving the two sides a space to work on “practical joint activities,” Stoltenberg added.
The broader security assurance conversation has inevitably become intertwined with the debate around Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, which will be high on the agenda when leaders gather in Vilnius.
In the formal communiqué that will be issued during the summit, “we will be addressing Ukraine’s membership aspirations and that is something that NATO allies continue to work on,” U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told reporters on Friday.
Specifically, leaders are aiming to update the alliance’s vague 2008 promise that Ukraine “will become” a NATO member at some point. But they aren’t expected to offer Kyiv the “clear invitation” that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy is seeking.
Scholz conceded as much last week.
“Certainly, we will also discuss the question of how to continue to deal with the perspective of the countries that look to NATO and want to join it,” Scholz said. Yet, he added, “it is also clear that no one can become a member of a defense alliance during a war.”
Stoltenberg nonetheless struck an upbeat tone on Friday.
“I’m confident that we’ll have a message which is clear,” he said. “We have to remember that Allies also agree already on a lot of important principles when it comes to Ukraine and membership.”
Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting.
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Ankara hasn’t seen sufficient progress from Sweden to support its application to join NATO, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned U.S. President Joe Biden in a phone call Sunday ahead of a summit of NATO leaders this week.
“Erdoğan stated that Sweden has taken some steps in the right direction by making changes in the anti-terrorism legislation,” Turkey’s communications directorate said in a statement following the bilateral call.
But the supporters of “terrorist organizations” — pro-Kurdish groups including the PKK and YPG, which are banned in Turkey — continue to hold demonstrations in Sweden, the statement said. “This nullifies the steps taken,” it said.
The call comes ahead of a two-day summit of NATO leaders in Lithuania that starts on Tuesday. Biden has thrown his support behind a push to get a deal done on Sweden at the meeting in Vilnius.
Erdoğan’s administration has been blocking Sweden’s hopes of joining the defense alliance, accusing Stockholm of backing Kurdish separatism. While it had initially accused Finland of doing the same, Erdoğan later gave the green light on Helsinki’s application and the country became a NATO member in April.
Biden and Erdoğan also discussed the sale of U.S. F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in the call, with the Turkish president “noting that it is not correct to associate” Ankara’s request for F-16 aircraft with Sweden’s NATO membership bid, according to the statement.
On the call, Erdoğan also brought up Turkey’s “desire to revive the EU membership process,” according to the statement. The Turkish president said he would like to see EU member states send a “clear and strong message” in support of its EU bid at the NATO summit in Lithuania.
While Turkey became a candidate for full membership of the EU in 1999, talks have effectively stalled over the past decade. The country has not committed to making the reforms required to meet the criteria set out by Brussels.
Erdoğan and Biden agreed to meet face-to-face in Vilnius and discuss Turkey-U.S. bilateral relations and regional issues in detail, according to the Turkish statement.
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Air exercises come amid growing number of intercepts between NATO and Russian military planes over the Baltic and Black Sea.
Russia has started tactical fighter jet exercises over the Baltic Sea with the goal of testing readiness to perform combat and other special operations, the country’s defence ministry has said, a day after Moscow said its jets had scrambled to intercept United Kingdom military planes over the Black Sea.
“The main goal of the exercise is to test the readiness of the flight crew to perform combat and special tasks as intended,” Russia’s defence ministry said on Tuesday.
“The crews of the Su-27 [fighter jets] of the Baltic Fleet fired from airborne weapons at cruise missiles and mock enemy aircraft,” the ministry announced on the Telegram messaging channel, adding that as well as improving skills, Russian fighter pilots are on “round-the-clock combat duty” guarding the air space of Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.
Wedged between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic coast, Kaliningrad is Moscow’s westernmost state and was part of Germany until the end of World War II. Given to the Soviet Union at the Potsdam Conference in 1945, the enclave has roughly 1 million residents – mainly Russians but also a small number of Ukrainians, Poles and Lithuanians.
Russia said last year that it had deployed warplanes armed with state-of-the-art Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to the Chkalovsk airbase in Kaliningrad as part of its “strategic deterrence”.
On Monday, the Russian defence ministry said that it had scrambled two fighter jets as UK Typhoon warplanes approached its border above the Black Sea and that the planes had “turned around and distanced themselves from the Russian border” following intervention from Russia’s fighter planes. The Typhoon jets were accompanying an RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft, the defence ministry said.
“The Russian planes safely returned to their airfield. There was no violation of the Russian border,” the ministry said.
Interceptions involving Russian and Western military aircraft have multiplied over the Black Sea and Baltic Sea in recent months amid growing tensions over Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
On Sunday, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said that Royal Air Force (RAF) Typhoon fighter aircraft operating with the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission in Estonia have scrambled to respond to Russian aircraft 21 times in the last 21 days. The RAF fighters are currently operating out of Estonia as part of NATO’s “quick reaction alert” to secure its eastern European flank.
“The RAF Typhoons launch to monitor the Russian aircraft when they do not talk to air traffic agencies, making them a flight safety hazard,” the UK defence ministry said in a statement on Sunday.
“These intercepts are a stark reminder of the value of collective defence and deterrence provided by NATO,” the UK’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said.
RAF Typhoons in Estonia scrambled this afternoon to intercept a Russian Tu-134 ‘CRUSTY’ and 2x Su-27 ‘FLANKER’ Bs flying close to @NATO airspace. The Russian aircraft failed to comply with international norms and did not liaise with the relevant airspace control agencies. pic.twitter.com/XlEpK5onLv
— Royal Air Force (@RoyalAirForce) June 22, 2023
In May, Moscow said it had intercepted four US strategic bombers above the Baltic Sea in two separate incidents in one week. In April, a US Reaper military drone crashed in the Black Sea after a confrontation with two Russian fighter jets. Washington blamed risky manoeuvres by Russian fighter jets for causing the drone to crash.
Russia also scrambled warplanes to intercept French, German and Polish aircraft.
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BULBOACA, Moldova — European leaders mounted a powerful show of defiance — and support for Ukraine — as they gathered Thursday for a historic summit in the ex-Soviet country of Moldova just kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
But even as over 40 leaders pledged their solidarity with Ukraine at the second gathering of the so-called European Political Community, the difficulty in maintaining that unity was on display. Before and during the summit, leaders hedged and staked out competing positions on an increasingly contentious issue — what security guarantees the Western alliance can give Kyiv to ensure that if Russia is ever pushed out, it won’t return.
French President Emmanuel Macron set the tone on Wednesday, imploring allies to offer Kyiv “tangible and credible” security guarantees — a shift in the French position. His German counterpart, Olaf Scholz, was more hesitant on Thursday, declining to provide any details and indicating it might be a question for after the war.
Against this backdrop, Ukraine’s own leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, joined the leaders in a surprise appearance. Under a crisp blue sky, Zelenskyy made two explicit demands: One, a “clear invitation” to join NATO — another subject that divides allies — and “security guarantees on the way to NATO membership.”
Both, he said, “are needed.”
The divergent positions illustrate the fraught questions that lie ahead as the West strives to hold together against Russia and the war grinds on. Yet, for now, unity is still the predominant rhetorical theme when European leaders gather.
“Today’s summit showed us how valuable the European Political Community is,” Moldovan President Maia Sandu said as the summit drew to a close. “We have shown that we are a family, a strong and united family of European nations acting together to make the continent stronger — more united and more peaceful.”
The summit at Castle Mimi, a vineyard only 20 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, kicked off on an emotional note with Zelenskyy’s arrival.
Sandu welcomed the Ukrainian president ahead of the other leaders, thanking him profusely for “keeping Moldova safe.” The side-by-side image of the two leaders, whose countries have both been battling Russian aggression to various degrees, was a powerful symbol.
But with Kyiv under an intensifying hail of Russia’s bombs, Zelenskyy moved swiftly to his plea, asking allies to give Ukraine firm security guarantees and a commitment to NATO membership at an upcoming NATO summit in Lithuania. NATO agreed in 2008 that Ukraine would eventually become a member, but it has never offered a firm promise or timeline.
While Zelenskyy is unlikely to get everything he wants at the July gathering, both issues are being hotly debated at the moment.
Macron set the stage on Wednesday when he turned heads with his most forthcoming remarks yet about security guarantees.
“I’m in favor — and it will be the topic of collective discussions in the coming weeks — of giving tangible and credible security guarantees for two reasons: Ukraine protects Europe today and she gives Europe security guarantees,” he said.
But on Thursday, Scholz, the German chancellor, was more guarded.
“One thing is very clear: We are now making our contribution to supporting Ukraine,” he said. “We have always said that there must also be guarantees for a peace order after the war. Germany will make a contribution to this.”
Scholz then refused to be drawn into the details of the discussion, even as it moved to center stage.
Still, both Scholz and Macron confirmed that allies are actively discussing the subject, and working to coordinate their approaches ahead of the NATO summit.
Speaking in Oslo on Thursday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg was similarly careful when addressing the touchy subject.
“When the war ends, we need to ensure that history doesn’t repeat itself, that this pattern of Russian aggression against Ukraine really stops and therefore, we need to have in place frameworks to provide guarantees for Ukrainian security after the end of the war, so history doesn’t repeat itself,” he said.

The lack of clarity reflects the complexity of offering — or even defining — “security guarantees” for another country. Europe may also be waiting to take its cue from the U.S. One option on the table may reflect the security model binding the U.S. and Israel, which prioritizes arms transfers and long-term support commitments.
Nonetheless, Scholz, speaking at the conclusion of the summit, was keen to stress that helping Ukraine defend itself was “the task at hand.” And he ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine at this juncture.
“There are clear criteria for membership. You can’t have border conflicts for instance,” he said — an obvious reference to Ukraine.
Scholz’s remarks reflect the broad understanding that Ukraine cannot join NATO so long as it’s actively at war with Russia. But Ukrainian officials want NATO leaders to offer a concrete political gesture that Kyiv is at least on the membership path.
Some NATO allies are willing to be far blunter than Scholz on the subject, most notably those representing the Baltic countries, highlighting yet another fissure that separates allies.
“The only security guarantee that works … is NATO membership,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said Thursday, echoing Zelenskyy’s message.
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It’s an hour before dawn breaks over the North Sea. Aboard the KV Bergen, the officer of the watch is wide awake.
The 93-meter long Norwegian Navy Coast Guard vessel is on patrol, 50 miles out to sea. The sky is dark, the sea darker. But off the starboard bow, bright lights gleam through the rain and mist. Something huge and incongruous is looming out of the water, lit like a Christmas display.
“Troll A,” says Torgeir Standal, 49, the ship’s second in command, who is taking the watch on this bleak March morning.
It’s a gas platform — a big one.
When it was transported out to this desolate spot nearly 30 years ago, Troll A — stretching 472 meters from its seabed foundations to the tip of its drilling rig — became the tallest structure ever moved by people across the surface of the Earth. Last year, Troll, the gas field it taps into, provided 10 percent of the EU’s total supply of natural gas — heating homes, lighting streets, fueling industry.
“There are many platforms here,” says Standal, standing on the dark bridge of the Bergen, his face illuminated by the glow from the radar and satellite screens on his control panel. “And thousands of miles of pipeline underneath.”
And that’s why the Bergen has come to this spot today.
In September 2022, an explosion on another undersea gas pipeline nearly 600 miles away shook the world. Despite three ongoing investigations, there is still no official answer to the question of who blew up the Nord Stream pipe. But the fact that it could happen at all triggered a Europe-wide alert.
The Norwegian Navy’s KV Bergen, seen in the background, after departing from the port of Bergen
Against a backdrop of growing confrontation with Moscow over its brutal invasion of Ukraine and its willingness to use energy as a weapon, the vulnerability of the undersea pipes and cables that deliver gas, electricity and data to the Continent — the vital arteries of comfortable, modern European life — has been starkly exposed.
In response, Norway, alongside NATO allies, increased naval patrols in the North Sea — an area vital for Europe’s energy security. The presence of the Bergen, day and night, in these unforgiving waters, is part of the effort to remain vigilant. The task of the men and women on board is to keep watch on behalf of Europe — and to stop the next Nord Stream attack before it happens.
But what are they looking for?
In recent weeks the Bergen has tracked the movements of a Russian military frigate through the North Sea — something that it has to do “several times every year,” says Kenneth Dyb, 47, the skippsjef, or commander of the ship.
The Russians have a right to sail through these seas out to the Atlantic, and it is very unlikely Moscow would be so brazen as to openly attack a gas platform or a pipeline. But, says Dyb, as his ship steams west to another gas and oil field, Oseberg, “it’s important to show that we are present. That we are watching.”
Recent reports that Russian naval ships — with their trackers turned off — were present near the site of the Nord Stream blasts in the months running up to the incident have reinforced the importance of having extra eyes on the water itself.
The Oseberg oil and gas field, 130 kilometers north-west of Bergen
Of course, the gas didn’t come for free. Norway has profited hugely from the spike in gas and oil prices that followed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The state-owned energy giant Equinor made a record $75 billion profit in 2022. Oslo is sensitive to accusations of war profiteering — and keen to show Europe that it cares about its neighbors’ energy security as much as it cares about their cash.
But the threat to the pipelines could also be more low-key. One of the many theories about the Nord Stream attack is that it was carried out by a small group of divers, operating from an ordinary yacht. In such a scenario, something as seemingly innocent as a ship suddenly going stationary, or following an unaccustomed course through the water, could be suspicious. The Bergen’s crew have the authority to board and inspect vessels that its crew consider a cause for concern.
Russia’s covert presence in these waters has been acknowledged by Norway’s intelligence services in recent weeks. A joint investigation by the public broadcasters in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland uncovered evidence of civilian vessels, such as fishing ships, being used for surveillance activities. This is something that has been “going on forever,” according to Ståle Ulriksen, a researcher at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, but it has increased in intensity in recent years.
“We always look for oddities, anything that is unusual, like new ships in the area that have not been here before,” says Magne Storebø, 26, senior petty officer, as he takes the afternoon watch on the bridge later that day.
The sky is leaden and the horizon lost in cloud. Coffee in hand, Storebø casts his eye over the radar and satellite screens as giant windscreen wipers whip North Sea spray from the floor-to-ceiling windows. There are few ships around, all of them familiar to the crew; service vessels plying back and forth from the gas and oil platforms.
The Nord Stream incident and the new security situation has changed the way Storebø thinks about his work, he says.
He is “more aware of the consequences suspicious vessels could have,” he says. “More awake, you could say.”

Senior Petty Officer Magne Storebø keeps watch from the bridge
Soft-spoken and calm beyond his years, Storebø is philosophical about the potential dangers of his work. He has been in the Navy for four years, in which time war has broken out on the European continent and the threat to his home waters has come into sharp focus.
“If you are going to put a rainy cloud over your head and bury yourself down, I don’t think the Navy or the coastguard is the right place to work in,” he says in conversation with two shipmates later that day. “You need to adjust and to look in a positive direction — and to be ready in case things don’t go that way.”
As Europe emerges from the first winter of its energy war with Russia, its gas supplies have held up better than almost anyone expected.
But as the Continent braces for next winter, the risk of another Nord Stream-style attack to a key pipeline is taken seriously at the highest levels of leadership.
“Things look OK for gas security now,” said one senior European Commission official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters of energy security. “But if Norway has a pipeline that blows up, we are in a different situation.”
EU policymakers see four key risks to gas security going into next winter, the senior official added: exceptionally cold weather; a stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery hoovering up global gas supply; Russia cutting off the remaining gas it sends to Europe; and last but not least, an “incident” affecting energy infrastructure.
Such an event might not only threaten supply but could potentially spark panic in the gas market, as seen in 2022, driving up prices and hitting European citizens and industries in the wallet. And nowhere is the potential for harm greater than in the North Sea.
Norway is now Europe’s biggest single supplier of gas. After Russian President Vladimir Putin and the energy giant Gazprom shut off supply via Nord Stream and other pipelines, Norway stepped up its own production in the North Sea, delivering well over 100 billion cubic meters to the EU and the U.K. in 2022. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Troll A herself in March this year — the first visit of a Commission president to Norway since 2011 — to personally thank the country’s president, Jonas Gahr Støre, for supplies that “helped us through the winter.”
“We have a huge responsibility, supplying the rest of Europe with energy,” Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram told POLITICO. “To be a stable, reliable producer of energy, of gas, is an important role for us and we take that very seriously. That is why we are also doing so much to protect this infrastructure.”
The vast majority of that gas is transported into northwest Europe via a complex network of seabed pipes — more than 5,000 miles of them in Norway’s jurisdiction alone. The North Sea has an average depth of just 95 meters. That’s not much deeper than the Nord Stream pipes at the location they were attacked.
“It actually doesn’t take a particularly sophisticated capability to attack a pipeline in relatively shallow waters,” says Sidharth Kaushal, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in the U.K. A small vessel, “some divers and an [explosive] charge” are all it could take, Kaushal says.
After the Nord Stream incident in September, suspicion instantly fell on Russia. Moscow has a record of operating in the so-called gray zone — committing hostile acts short of warfare, often covertly.
To date, the three investigations looking into the incident have yet to confirm that suspicion. But European governments — and their militaries — are not taking any chances.
In the days immediately following the explosions, NATO navy chiefs started calling each other to try to coordinate efforts to protect energy infrastructure, says Rune Andersen, the chief of Norway’s navy, speaking to POLITICO at Haakonsvern naval base, before the KV Bergen’s voyage.
Everyone had the same thought, he says. “If that happens in the North Sea, we will have a problem.”
Andersen joined the Navy as a young man in 1988, in the last days of the Cold War. Now 54, he is used to the Russian threat overshadowing Norway’s and Europe’s security.
“After decades of attempts to integrate or cooperate with Russia, we now have war in Europe. We see that our neighbor is brutal and willing to use military force,” he says grimly. “I worked in the Navy in the ’90s when it was enduring peace and partnership on the agenda. We are back to a situation where our job feels more meaningful — and necessary.”

Kenneth Dyb, the skippsjef, or commander of the ship
However, he points out, his own forces have so far not seen any Russian movements or operations “that are different to what they were before” the Nord Stream attacks. “The job we are doing is precautionary, rather than tailored to any specific threat,” he adds.
Even so, those early discussions with NATO allies have now formalized into daily coordination via the Allied Maritime Command headquarters in the U.K., to ensure there are always NATO ships on hand that can act as “first responders” to potential incidents. British, German and French ships have joined their Norwegian counterparts in the monitoring and surveillance effort.
It is “by nature challenging” to protect every inch of pipeline, all of the time, Andersen says.
The role of the Bergen and ships like it, he adds, is just “one bit of the puzzle.” Simply by their presence at sea, these ships increase the chances of catching would-be saboteurs in the act, and hopefully deter them from trying in the first place.
The goal, in other words, is to reduce the size of the “gray zone” — or to “increase the resolution” of the navy’s picture of the activity out on the North Sea, as Andersen puts it.
In collaboration with the energy companies and pipeline operators, unmanned underwater vehicles — drones — using cameras and high-resolution sonar have been used, Andersen says, to “map the micro-terrain” around pipelines. These are sensitive enough to spot an explosive charge or other signs of foul play.
Equinor, alongside the pipeline operator Gassco, has carried out a “large inspection survey” of its undersea pipeline infrastructure, a company spokesperson says. The survey revealed “no identified signs of malicious activities” but pipeline inspections are ongoing “continuously.”

Senior Petty Officer Simen Strand speaks to the crew. “We haven’t had much to fear in the past. We are probably less naïve nowadays,” he says.
Perhaps understandably, the heightened level of alert has led to the occasional false alarm. A spate of aerial drone sightings near Norwegian energy infrastructure around the time of the Nord Stream attacks last year included a report of a suspicious craft circling above Haakonsvern naval base itself.
“After a while, we concluded it was a seagull,” says Andersen, with the shadow of a grin.
The navy chief is nonetheless deadly serious about the potential threat. A Nord Stream-style attack in the North Sea is possible. Anderson will not be drawn on the most vulnerable points in the network, saying only that “easy to access” places and “key hubs” are “two things in the back of mind when we think [about] risk.”
Throughout Europe, the alert has been raised. This month, NATO warned of a “significant risk” that Russia could target undersea pipelines or internet cables as part of its confrontation with the West.
Several countries are increasing patrols and underwater surveillance capabilities. The British Royal Navy accelerated the purchase of two specialist ocean surveillance ships, the first of which will be operational this summer. The EU and NATO have established a new joint task force focusing on critical infrastructure protection, and a “coordination cell” has been established at NATO headquarters in Brussels to improve “engagement with industry and bring key military and civilian stakeholders together” to keep the cables and pipelines secure.
Norway — and Europe — are in this struggle for the long haul, Andersen believes.
Indeed, even as Europe transitions from fossil fuels to green energy, the North Sea will remain a vital powerhouse of offshore wind energy, with plans for a huge expansion over the next 25 years. Earlier this year, the Netherlands’ intelligence services reported a Russian ship seeking to map wind farm infrastructure in the Dutch sector of the North Sea. “We think the Russians wanted to investigate the possibilities for potential future sabotage,” Jan Swillens, head of the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service tells POLITICO in an emailed statement. “This incident makes clear that these kinds of Russian operations are performed closer than one might think.”
At the same time in the Baltic, countries are shoring up security around their infrastructure, at sea and on land. Late last year, Estonia carried out an underwater inspection of the two Estlink power cables and the Baltic Connector gas pipeline linking it to Finland, the Estonian navy says. Lithuania, meanwhile, is paying “special attention” to security around its LNG terminal at Klaipėda and the gas cargoes that arrive there, a defense ministry spokesperson says.

Torgeir Standal, left, the KV Bergen’s second in command
It was in Lithuania that Europe had its first major false alarm since the Nord Stream incident, when a gas pipeline on land exploded on a Friday evening in January. Foul play was briefly considered a possibility in the immediate aftermath but was quickly ruled out. The pipe was 40 years old, and had been subject to a technical fault.
The danger posed by Russia to infrastructure throughout Europe should not be underestimated, says Vilmantas Vitkauskas, director of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre and a former NATO intelligence official.
“We know their way of thinking, [the way] they send signals or apply pressure,” Vitkauskas says. “We understand Russia quite well, and we are quite worried by what we see — and how vulnerable our infrastructure is in Europe.”
Back aboard the Bergen, life for the sailors carries on as normal. It’s a young crew, with an average age of around 30. Some are conscripts. It’s still compulsory in Norway for 19-year-olds to present themselves for national service, but only around one in four are actually recruited for the mandated 19-month stint.
The days are long. Surveillance, maintenance and exercises in search and rescue are all part of the crew’s regular routine. A helicopter from one of the Oseberg oil and gas platforms soars overhead, and the crew are drafted into an exercise winching people on and off the deck of the Bergen in the dead of night, simulating a rescue operation.
The ship needs to be ready to respond to an incident should the call come in from naval headquarters that help is required, or a suspicious vessel has been identified in their patch of the North Sea. But in their downtime, the sailors head to the gym on the lower deck, or play FIFA on the X-box in the sparse games room. Three hearty meals a day are served in the galley kitchen. There is even a ship’s band, cheekily named “Dyb Purple” after their commander. Dyb “takes it well,” says Senior Petty Officer Storebø.
In the daily whirl of activity, most of the young sailors don’t think of their work in the grand strategic sense of protecting the energy security — the warmth, the light, the industry — of an entire continent.
But the context of the Ukraine war — and the precedent set by the Nord Stream attack — has added a note of solemnity just below the surface of the comradeship and bonhomie.
“We are probably less naïve nowadays,” says 33-year-old Senior Petty Officer Simen Strand, who has a wife and two children, a boy and a girl, back home in Bergen. “We haven’t had much to fear in the past, there hasn’t been a concrete threat.”
Storebø agrees but is characteristically sanguine. “Russia has always been there … I’ve not personally felt any more unease than before.”
The next day, Storebø has the night watch, from midnight to four in the morning, as the Bergen travels back to base for a short stop before heading out to sea again.
It’s dark up on the bridge, with the glow of the control panel screens the only light inside. Twenty miles away, little lights can be seen on the Norwegian coast. A lighthouse flares to the south, at Slåtterøy, not far from Storebø’s home island of Austevoll. Beneath the waves, unseen, gas flows from the Troll field back to the mainland, where it is processed. From there, it continues its journey south to light the dark of European nights.
All is quiet but Storebø can’t afford to lose focus. “Coffee and music help,” he says. “I like the night shifts.”
As the officer of the watch, he has to be ready, should the radar, the satellites, or his own eyes see something out of the ordinary — ready to call the captain and raise the alarm.
That’s the job, he says. “You always have it in the back of your mind.”
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Charlie Cooper
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HIROSHIMA, Japan — China on Saturday faced a strong pushback from the Group of Seven countries over its stances on Russia, Taiwan, trade bullying, economic monopoly and domestic interference, with the G7 leaders’ statement reflecting a broad convergence of the U.S., Europe and Japan on a need to change tack.
Issued around the time of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s arrival in Hiroshima, where the summit is taking place, the statement by leaders of the G7 wealthy democracies asked Beijing to do more to stop Russia’s war on Ukraine.
“We call on China to press Russia to stop its military aggression, and immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw its troops from Ukraine,” the leaders said in the statement. “We encourage China to support a comprehensive, just and lasting peace based on territorial integrity and the principles and purposes of the U.N. Charter, including through its direct dialogue with Ukraine.”
Crucially, the U.S. and Europe — the two main constituents of the G7 — came round to a common set of language on China. For France and Germany, in particular, their focus on a conciliatory attitude to China was reflected in the final statement, which began the China section by stating “We stand prepared to build constructive and stable relations with China.”
The G7’s repeated emphasis of “de-risking, not decoupling” is a nod to the EU approach to China, as European member countries are wary of completely cutting off business ties with Beijing.
The language on Taiwan remained the same compared with recent statements. “We reaffirm the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as indispensable to security and prosperity in the international community,” the statement said, adding there’s “no change in the basic positions” in terms of the one China policies.
Apart from Russia, another new element this year is the mention of domestic interference — which human rights groups say is a reflection of the growing concern about China’s “overseas police stations” in other countries. “We call on China … not to conduct interference activities aimed at undermining the security and safety of our communities, the integrity of our democratic institutions and our economic prosperity,” the leaders said in their statement, citing the Vienna Convention which regulates diplomatic affairs.
On global economics, both sides of the Atlantic and Japan now see the need to fundamentally change the overall dynamic of economic globalization, placing security at the front of policy considerations.
“Our policy approaches are not designed to harm China nor do we seek to thwart China’s economic progress and development. A growing China that plays by international rules would be of global interest,” the G7 leaders said in the statement.
“We are not decoupling or turning inwards. At the same time, we recognize that economic resilience requires de-risking and diversifying. We will take steps, individually and collectively, to invest in our own economic vibrancy. We will reduce excessive dependencies in our critical supply chains,” they said.
One central theme is economic coercion, where China has punished a wide range of countries — from Japan and Australia to Lithuania and South Korea — over the decade when political disagreements arose.
The G7 countries launched a new “coordination platform on economic coercion” to “increase our collective assessment, preparedness, deterrence and response to economic coercion,” according to the statement. They also plan to coordinate with other partners to further the work on this.
The joint call for diverse sources of critical minerals, while stopping short of naming China, is widely seen as targeted against the Asian superpower that controls, for instance, 70 percent of global rare earths output. The G7 countries “support open, fair, transparent, secure, diverse, sustainable, traceable, rules and market-based trade in critical minerals” and “oppose market-distorting practices and monopolistic policies on critical minerals,” according to the statement.
They also vow to deliver the goal of mobilizing up to $600 billion in financing for quality infrastructure through the Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment, a rival to China’s Belt and Road initiative. “We will mobilize the private sector for accelerated action to this end,” they said.
In a bilateral in Hiroshima, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron “welcomed the strong unity of purpose at the G7 on … our collective approach to the economic threat posed by China,” a spokesperson for Sunak’s office said.
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Stuart Lau and Eli Stokols
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The Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are demanding an explanation from Beijing after China’s top envoy to France questioned the independence of former Soviet countries like Ukraine.
Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, said in an interview on Friday with French television network LCI that former Soviet countries have no “effective status” in international law.
Asked whether Crimea belongs to Ukraine, Lu said that “it depends how you perceive the problem,” arguing that it was historically part of Russia and offered to Ukraine by former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
“In international law, even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have the status, the effective [status] in international law, because there is no international agreement to materialize their status as a sovereign country,” he said.
The comments sparked outrage among Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia — three former Soviet countries.
Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs said in a tweet that his ministry summoned “the authorized chargé d’affaires of the Chinese embassy in Riga on Monday to provide explanations. This step is coordinated with Lithuania and Estonia.”
He called the comments “completely unacceptable,” adding: “We expect explanation from the Chinese side and complete retraction of this statement.”
Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s foreign minister, called the comments “false” and “a misinterpretation of history.”
Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s foreign minister, shared the interview on Twitter with the comment: “If anyone is still wondering why the Baltic States don’t trust China to “broker peace in Ukraine,” here’s a Chinese ambassador arguing that Crimea is Russian and our countries’ borders have no legal basis.”
Kyiv also pushed back strongly against the ambassador’s comments.
“It is strange to hear an absurd version of the ‘history of Crimea’ from a representative of a country that is scrupulous about its thousand-year history,” Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, said in a tweet on Sunday. “If you want to be a major political player, do not parrot the propaganda of Russian outsiders.”
France in a statement on Sunday stated its “full solidarity” with all the allied countries affected, which it said had acquired their independence “after decades of oppression,” according to Reuters. “On Ukraine specifically, it was internationally recognized within borders including Crimea in 1991 by the entire international community, including China,” a foreign ministry spokesperson was quoted as saying.
The foreign ministry spokesperson also called on China to clarify whether the ambassador’s statement reflects its position or not.
The row comes ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday, where relations with China are on the agenda.
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Antonia Zimmermann
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