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Tag: labor sector performance

  • Microsoft and Google promised to invest in these communities. Now they’re backtracking | CNN Business

    Microsoft and Google promised to invest in these communities. Now they’re backtracking | CNN Business

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    CNN Business
     — 

    When Microsoft President Brad Smith announced in February 2021 that the tech giant had purchased a 90-acre plot of land in Atlanta’s westside, he laid out a bold vision: The company, he said, would invest in the community and put it “on the path toward becoming one of Microsoft’s largest hubs” in the United States.

    The announcement, which was met with enthusiastic coverage in local media, promised the construction of affordable housing, programs to help public school children develop digital skills, support for historically Black colleges and universities, new funding for local nonprofits, and affordable broadband for more people in Atlanta.

    “Our biggest question today is not what Atlanta can do to support Microsoft,” Smith wrote. “It’s what Microsoft can do to support Atlanta.”

    Two years later, Microsoft announced a series of cost-cutting efforts, including eliminating 10,000 jobs, making changes to its hardware portfolio and consolidating leases. As part of those moves, Microsoft put development of its Atlanta campus on pause this month, a spokesperson confirmed to CNN.

    The decision to pause plans feels like a “broken promise” that caught many residents of the predominately Black neighborhood where Microsoft planned to build the campus off-guard, according to Jasmine Hope, a local resident and chair of her neighborhood planning unit.

    “All the promises of, ‘We’re going to put a grocery store here, we’re going to bring jobs to the area, we’re going to have a pipeline between the schools and Microsoft to create jobs,’ all that seems like it’s out the window,” she told CNN. “But the consequences are still being felt by the neighborhood.”

    A Microsoft spokesperson said the land is not for sale, “and we still aim to set aside a quarter of the 90 acres for community needs.” Microsoft will continue efforts “to create a positive impact in the region and be a contributing community partner,” the spokesperson added.

    As the tech industry boomed in the United States throughout the past decade, cities across the country vied to become tech hubs. State and city officials competed for Silicon Valley giants to bring offices, data centers and warehouses to their communities in hopes of creating jobs and bringing other benefits that cash-strapped local governments might struggle to fund on their own. In perhaps the biggest example of this, 238 communities submitted bids in 2017 to be home to Amazon’s second headquarters, with some offering major tax breaks or even to rename land “city of Amazon.”

    But now, a number of large tech companies are rethinking their costs, after years of seemingly limitless hiring and expansion. The reason: a perfect storm of shifting pandemic demand for online services, rising interest rates and fears of a looming recession. Much of the focus of this tech downturn so far has been on the long list of layoffs, but companies have also teased plans to dramatically reduce real estate expenses across the country.

    Facebook-parent Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce and Snap have each shuttered offices or announced plans to cut back on real estate, according to recent corporate announcements, filings and local news reports. Some tech companies have said they’ll let leases expire or go fully remote. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said his company is “transitioning to desk-sharing for people who already spend most of their time outside the office.”

    The effect of those pullbacks can already be felt across the country, from New York City, where Meta reportedly scaled back its real estate footprint in the Hudson Yards neighborhood, to San Francisco, where some local businesses say they are facing the ripple effects of remote work and multiple tech office closures.

    “Tech had pretty much gained market share to become the top industry leasing office space across the US, and that started back in 2012, 2013,” said Colin Yasukochi, the executive director of the Tech Insights Center at CBRE, a commercial real estate firm. In 2022, however, finance and insurance companies overtook the tech industry for the highest share of US office leases, according to CBRE’s data.

    “Really, over the last couple of quarters, you’ve seen the tech industry decrease its leasing activity pretty significantly,” he added. “That’s really, I think, the biggest impact that you’ve seen regarding these layoffs and austerity measures: the leasing activity pullback by the tech industry.”

    But the impact of that pullback is perhaps most stark in the communities with less robust tech hubs.

    Quarry Yards, on Atlanta’s westside, has been a source of some promise and dashed hopes. In 2017, Georgia officials included the formerly industrial area on a list of sites where Amazon could build its second headquarters, as part of its pitch to the e-commerce giant. Amazon ultimately went with other cities, but four years later, another Seattle tech giant scooped up the land.

    After the purchase, Microsoft described Quarry Yards as a place with “wide, tree-lined streets” but “broken sidewalks.” The area, Microsoft said, is “food desert with no grocery store, pharmacy or bank.”

    The community, according to Hope, consists of “a lot of elderly, Black neighbors.” These residents, she said, have been worried about gentrification and displacement for years as housing prices and property taxes surge in the metro Atlanta region.

    Jasmine Hope, PhD, Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Motions Analysis Laboratory, Emory University.

    “Just the announcement of Microsoft coming into town” brought new buyers and developers into the area, she said, exacerbating these longstanding concerns. Data from Zillow indicates average home values in the neighborhood surged more at a significantly faster pace between January 2020 and December 2022 than Atlanta as a whole.

    But residents also had cautious optimism about the benefits Microsoft promised to the community, according to Hope. Now, the community is left with higher prices but none of the promised improvements or economic opportunities. “We’re not going to see any benefits and only deal with the consequences,” she said.

    “It feels like the community is now going to be burdened by this,” she said.

    Hope’s community isn’t alone in confronting the whiplash of Silicon Valley’s real estate pullback. Late last month, the city of Kirkland, Washington, said in a press release that it had been notified by Google that the company will not be proceeding with its proposed redevelopment project that initially aimed to bring a massive new campus to the city.

    In a Kirkland City Council meeting held just last summer, representatives from Google teased a slew of community benefits from the build — including infrastructure improvements, such as the creation of bike lanes and pedestrian trails, as well as a more than $12 million investment in affordable housing. The planning process between Google and the city had been taking place since the fall of 2020.

    “As we continue to shape our future workplace experience, we’re working to ensure our real estate investments meet the current and future needs of our workforce,” Ryan Lamont, a Google spokesperson, told CNN in a statement. “Our campuses are at the heart of our Google community, and we remain committed to our long-term presence in Washington state.”

    Even San Francisco, whose fortunes are tied to Silicon Valley more than any other city, is showing signs of strain from the one-two punch of the shift to remote work and office closures.

    Office vacancy rates in the city hit a record high of 27.6% in the final three months of last year, according to CBRE, compared to the pre-pandemic figure of 3.7%.

    “The previous high was about 20%, after the Dotcom bust,” Yasukochi, of CBRE, told CNN. “We’re at the highest point that our records have shown.”

    The rise of remote and hybrid work had been a major driver in tech giants cutting back on their real estate investments, Yasukochi said. Then came the recent cost-cutting measures.

    Local business owners say they are now feeling the impacts.

    An office sits vacant on October 27, 2022 in San Francisco, California. According to a report by commercial real estate firm CBRE, the city of San Francisco has a record 27.1 million square feet of office space available as the city struggles to rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic. The US Census Bureau reports an estimated 35% of employees in San Francisco and San Jose continue to work from home.

    Mark Nagle, the owner of a 21-year-old Irish pub and restaurant in downtown San Francisco called The Chieftain, told CNN he has witnessed a “cascade of closures” of tech and corporate offices in his neighborhood recently — including the shuttering of a Snapchat office just down the street.

    “We’re in a great location normally, we’re downtown,” Nagle said. But now his business is surrounded by several vacant retail spaces and multiple lots that are under construction.

    The number of workers regularly coming into the area has not bounced back since the start of the pandemic, Nagle said, and neither has his business. Nagle said that in addition to workers stopping by for a drink at the end of their days, nearby companies would frequently hold events and meetings at The Chieftain, but that those have also largely dropped off.

    At least six bars and restaurants in a two-block radius of him have shuttered in recent years, he said.

    “You’re making do with less and it’s made the business so much more unpredictable,” he added. “And we’re one of the lucky ones that can keep their doors open.”

    – CNN’s Clare Duffy contributed to this report.

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  • Here’s what keeps Jerome Powell up at night and interest rates high | CNN Business

    Here’s what keeps Jerome Powell up at night and interest rates high | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell threw markets into a tizzy on Tuesday as he spoke about the economy alongside his former boss, Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, at the Economic Club of Washington.

    Stocks struggled for direction as investors tried to get a read on Powell’s economic outlook, attitude towards inflation and on future interest rate hikes. Wall Street cheered as the Fed chair said the disinflationary process has begun, then soured when he said the road to reaching 2% inflation will be “bumpy” and “long” with more rate hikes ahead.

    Markets soared to new highs, before quickly falling to session lows and then recovering to close the day in the green.

    “Powell doesn’t want to play games with financial markets,” said EY Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco after the conversation. But at the same time, he said Powell wanted to communicate that the Fed’s “base case was not for inflation to come down as quickly and painlessly as some market participants appear to expect.”

    Here’s why Powell thinks bringing down prices will be more difficult than investors anticipate.

    Structural changes in the labor market: The US economy added an astonishing 517,000 jobs in January, blowing economists’ expectations out of the water. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% from 3.5%, hitting a level not seen since May 1969.

    The current labor market imbalance is a reflection of the pandemic’s lasting effect on the US economy and on labor supply, said Powell on Tuesday in answer to a question about the report. “The labor market is extraordinarily strong,” he said. Demand exceeds supply by 5 million people, and the labor force participation rate has declined. “It feels almost more structural than cyclical.”

    “If we continue to get, for example, strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have to do more and raise rates more,” he said.

    Core services inflation: Powell noted that he’s seeing disinflation in the goods sector and expects to soon see declining inflation in housing. But prices remain stubborn for services. Service-sector inflation, which is more sensitive to a strong labor market, is up 7.5% from the year prior through the end of 2022, and has not abated, he said.

    “That sector is not showing any disinflation yet,” Powell said. “There has been an expectation that [higher prices] will go away quickly and painlessly and I don’t think that’s at all guaranteed.”

    Geopolitical uncertainties: Powell also cited concerns that the reopening of China’s economy after the sudden end of Covid-Zero restrictions, plus uncertainty about Russia’s war on Ukraine could also affect the inflation path in ways that remain unclear.

    The labor market is strong, but tech layoffs keep coming. There were around  50,000 tech jobs cut in January, and the trend has continued into February.

    Video conferencing service Zoom is one of the latest to announce layoffs. The company said Tuesday that it’s cutting 1,300 jobs or 15% of its workforce. 

    Zoom CEO Eric Yuan said in a blog post on Tuesday that Zoom ramped up employment  quickly due to increased demand during the pandemic. The company grew three times in size within 24 months, he said and now it must  adapt to changing demand for its services.

    “The uncertainty of the global economy, and its effect on our customers, means we need to take a hard — yet important — look inward to reset ourselves so we can weather the economic environment, deliver for our customers and achieve Zoom’s long-term vision,” he wrote.

    Yuan added that he plans to lower his own salary by 98% and forgo his 2023 bonus. Shares of Zoom closed nearly 10% higher on Tuesday. 

    The announcement comes just one day after Dell said it would lay off more than 6,500 employees.

    Amazon

    (AMZN)
    , Microsoft

    (MSFT)
    , Google and other tech giants have also recently announced plans to cut thousands of workers as the companies adapt to shifting pandemic demand and fears of a looming recession.

    Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis told CNN that he is starting to think that the US economy could avoid a recession and achieve a so-called soft landing.

    It’s hard to have a recession when the job market is still so robust, he told CNN’s Poppy Harlow on Tuesday on CNN This Morning.

    Still, “we have more work to do,” Kashkari told Harlow, adding that the labor market is “too hot” and that is a key reason why it is “harder to bring inflation back down.”

    Although many investors are starting to think the Fed may pause after just two more similarly small hikes, to a level of around 5%, Kashkari said he believes the Fed may have to raise rates further. Kashkari has a vote this year on the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s interest-rate setting group.

    It’s a good time to be in the oil business. BP’s annual profit more than doubled last year to an all-time high of nearly $28 billion.

    The British energy company said in a statement that underlying replacement cost profit rose to $27.7 billion in 2022 from $12.8 billion the previous year. The metric is a key indicator of oil companies’ profitability.

    BP

    (BP)
    also unveiled a further $2.75 billion in share buybacks and hiked its dividend for the fourth quarter by around 10% to 6.61 cents per share.

    BP’s shares rose 6% in Tuesday trading following the news. Over the past 12 months, its shares have soared 24%.

    The earnings are the latest in a string of record-setting results by the world’s biggest energy companies, which have enjoyed bumper profits off the back of skyrocketing oil and gas prices.

    Last week, another energy major Shell reported a record profit of almost $40 billion for 2022, more than double what it raked in the previous year after oil and gas prices jumped following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    On Wednesday it was TotalEnergie

    (TTFNF)
    s turn. The French company posted annual profit of $36.2 billion for 2022, double the previous year’s earnings.

    Disney has found itself in the middle of a culture war battle that could end up transferring Disney World’s governance to a board appointed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. And that may be the least of Disney’s problems, writes my colleague Chris Isidore.

    The company faces a media industry in turmoil, plunging cable subscriptions, a still-recovering box office, massive streaming losses, activist shareholders, possible reorganization and layoffs and growing labor disputes with employees. That’s a lot for CEO Bob Iger to handle.

    Iger, who retired as CEO in 2020 only to be brought back in November, has been mostly quiet about his plans for the company since his return. That ends at 4:30 p.m. ET Wednesday when he is set to begin an earnings call with Wall Street investors.

    Click here to read more about what to look for on what is certain to be a closely-followed call.

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  • Fed Chair Powell: Inflation fight will take ‘a significant period of time’ | CNN Business

    Fed Chair Powell: Inflation fight will take ‘a significant period of time’ | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    The US labor market remains “extraordinarily strong” and Friday’s monster jobs report underscored that the central bank has more work to do to bring down inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday.

    “We didn’t expect it to be this strong,” Powell said of the January jobs report, which showed the US economy added 517,000 jobs. “It kind of shows you why we think that this will be a process that takes a significant period of time.”

    Powell was speaking during a question-and-answer session with David Rubenstein of the Economic Club of Washington.

    “The disinflationary process has begun,” Powell said, noting progress especially in goods prices. However, price gains within the services sector remain high, he added.

    The Fed expects “significant” declines in inflation to occur this year. It will take “not just this year but next year to get down to 2%,” the central bank’s inflation target, Powell said. And rates will have to remain at a restrictive level “for a period of time” before that happens, he noted.

    Powell expects housing inflation to come down by the middle of this year but is keeping the closest watch on a metric within the Personal Consumption Expenditures report: Core services excluding housing.

    “There has been an expectation that [inflation] will go away quickly and painlessly; I don’t think it’s guaranteed that’s the base case,” Powell said. “It will take some time.”

    The major US stock indexes rallied during Powell’s discussion but then fell in early afternoon trading, with the Dow down by around 200 points or 0.6%, the S&P lower by 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq down by 0.2%.

    While economists said the January job total was heavily influenced by seasonal factors and will probably be adjusted downward, it was probably too hot for the Fed’s liking. The robustness of the labor market has stood somewhat at odds with the Fed’s efforts to lower inflation.

    “The labor market is strong because the economy is strong,” Powell said.

    The current labor market is also a reflection of the pandemic’s lasting effect on the US economy and labor supply, he noted. The demand exceeds the supply by 5 million people, and the labor force participation rate has declined, he said.

    “It feels almost more structural than cyclical,” he said.

    A key reason Chair Powell wants more slack in the labor market is out of concern that a tight employment situation will continue to push up wages, which could then keep inflation elevated. As the unemployment rate rises, workers lose bargaining power for higher wages and households pull back on spending.

    Fed officials also want to keep inflation expectations anchored.

    “We had a labor market with 3.5% unemployment in 2018 and ’19, and we had inflation just barely getting to 2%, and wages moving up for most of the people at the lower end of the spectrum,” he said. “We all want to get back to that place.”

    And the Fed will react accordingly with the data to ensure it does, he said.

    “If we continue to get, for example, strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have to do more and raise rates more,” he said.

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  • Why did we get a monster jobs report if the economy is slowing? | CNN Business

    Why did we get a monster jobs report if the economy is slowing? | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    The economy wasn’t supposed to add half a million jobs in January.

    In fact, a consensus poll of 81 economists expected job gains to land at around 185,000, according to Refinitiv. After 11 months of aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, the experts were naturally expecting the economy’s job gains to slow as higher borrowing costs percolated through the economy, slowing investment and growth and pushing companies to pull back on spending and hiring.

    And yet, even though it seemed impossible, the labor market is somehow getting tighter, said Rucha Vankudre, senior economist at business analytics firm Lightcast.

    “I think pretty much all the labor economists in the country this morning are shocked,” Vankudre said Friday during a webinar after the jobs report was released. I think the question on everyone’s mind is, ‘How can the labor market keep getting stronger and stronger, and how can this keep happening while at the same time we are seeing prices come down?’”

    Instead of lending credence to what was a bubbling belief in a soft landing, Friday’s jobs report only seems to beg more questions about not only the state of the economy, but also of the Federal Reserve’s attempts to hammer down high inflation.

    On Wednesday, the Fed concluded its first policymaking meeting of 2023 by green-lighting a quarter-point interest rate hike — the smallest since March — as a reflection of progress in its fight to lower inflation.

    The more moderate increase had been long telegraphed and came despite a hotter-than-expected December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, which showed job openings grew to more than 11 million, or 1.9 available jobs for every job seeker.

    Fed officials remain laser focused on wages and inflation, and are seeing some progress there, said Elizabeth Crofoot, Lightcast senior economist. Fluctuations are to be expected in any economic data, and it’s (always) important to remember that “one month does not make a trend,” especially for January data, she said.

    “I think [Fed officials] are going to say, ‘Let’s continue to keep our eye on the data,’ and they’re going to hold steady until they see that inflation rate come down,” Crofoot said.

    The January jobs report shouldn’t trigger a wholesale change of what Fed members are thinking or what they were planning on doing before this report, Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN.

    “I think it suggests that the labor market remains still very strong, and there’s still a lot of wage pressures coming from that strong labor market that the Fed needs to contend with if it’s going to get inflation back to 2% on a sustained basis,” House said, noting the Fed’s target inflation rate.

    The Covid pandemic was a tremendous shock to global economies, and the US labor force is still showing the effects of historic employment losses, sudden shifts in consumer behavior, discombobulated supply chains, and efforts to return to a state of normality.

    The employment recovery since 2021 has been historically robust, with the monthly job gains larger than anything seen on record.

    January’s jobs report came with added complexity, because it included annual updates to populations estimates and revisions to employer survey data.

    “Now we know both [2021 and 2022] had faster job growth than we previously realized,” said University of Michigan economists Betsey Stevenson and Benny Doctor in a statement Friday. “The patterns remain the same: Job growth accelerated in the second half of 2021 before slowing in the first half of 2022 and slowing further in the second half of 2022.”

    The January reports also bring with them “seasonal noise,” said Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US.

    “I’m advising policymakers and clients to ignore the topline number [of 517,000],” he said, noting it’s likely a function of seasonal adjustments and a reflection of swings in hiring activity and traditional cutbacks that take place from mid-December to mid-January.

    “That being said, even if a downward revision takes away 200,000 or so off the top, you still are sitting at around 300,000,” he added.

    “The job market is clearly too robust at this time to re-establish price stability; therefore, the Federal Reserve is going to have to not only hike by 25 basis points at its March meeting, it’s going to have to do so at the May meeting,” he predicted.

    Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on February 01, 2023, in Washington, DC. The Fed announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate increase to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%.

    Last summer, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that “some pain” (aka rising unemployment) would likely be felt as a result of the Fed’s sweeping efforts to tackle inflation.

    Yet Powell did not once utter the word “pain” during his press conference on Wednesday, said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst with Bankrate.

    “If they were to put money on it, I think Las Vegas oddsmakers would be doubling down right now on the soft landing scenario — not to say that’s the base case, per se, but the chances seem to be growing,” Hamrick said.

    “If anything, the global economic scenario has brightened in recent days and weeks — and we got a significant ray of sunshine with this January employment report, including all the revisions — but that’s not to say that consumers or businesses should be complacent with respect to an eventual risk of a recession,” he said.

    So for now, the chances of a soft landing remain unknown.

    “This is sort of a bumpy, turbulent ride to who knows where,” Crofoot said.

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  • The US economy added a whopping 517,000 jobs in January | CNN Business

    The US economy added a whopping 517,000 jobs in January | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    The US economy added an astonishing 517,000 jobs in January, showing that the labor market isn’t ready to cool down just yet.

    The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% from 3.5%, hitting a level not seen since May 1969 — two months before Neil Armstrong stepped on the moon — according to new data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Economists were expecting 185,000 jobs would be added last month, based on consensus estimates on Refinitiv.

    “With 517,000 new jobs added in January 2023 and the unemployment rate at 3.4%, this is a blockbuster report demonstrating that the labor market is more like a bullet train,” Becky Frankiewicz, president and chief commercial officer of ManpowerGroup, said Friday.

    The shockingly strong monthly jobs gain — a number that several economists cautioned was influenced by seasonal factors and is subject to future revisions — bucks a trend of five consecutive months of moderating job growth during the latter half of 2022.

    “The blowout 517,000 increase in total employment was almost certainly a function of seasonal noise and traditional churn in early-year job and wage environment and exaggerates what is already a robust trend in hiring,” Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist with RSM US, said in a statement.

    Nonetheless the juggernaut of a report may cause complications for the Federal Reserve, which has been trying to tame high inflation with higher interest rates, said Seema Shah, chief global strategist of Principal Asset Management.

    “Is [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell now wondering why he didn’t push back on the loosening in financial conditions?” Shah said in a statement. “It’s difficult to see how wage pressures can possibly soften sufficiently when jobs growth is as strong as this, and it’s even more difficult to see the Fed stop raising rates and entertain ideas of rate cuts when there is such explosive economic news coming in.”

    “The market is going to go through a roller coaster ride as it tries to decide if this is good or bad news. For now, though, looks like the US economy is doing absolutely fine,” she said.

    Still, the report also showed that wage growth moderated on an annual basis: Average hourly earnings fell 0.4 percentage points to 4.4% year over year. Monthly wage gains held steady at 0.3%.

    “It’s quite remarkable to see such a realignment of the employment picture coinciding with an easing of wage pressure,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate, said in an interview. “I think that might be part of this report that could help keep blood pressures down among Federal Reserve officials in the near term.”

    Additionally, average weekly hours jumped to 34.7 hours from 34.3, and employment in temporary help services rebounded after two months of declines, indicating further demand for labor, noted Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

    The report also showed an increase in the closely watched labor force participation rate to 62.4% from 62.3%. However, the increase in the share of people working or looking to work was a function of the BLS’ annual benchmark revisions to its household survey, one of two surveys that factor in to the monthly jobs report, noted PNC chief economist Gus Faucher.

    Had it not been for the revisions, that number would have been unchanged at 62.3%, he added.

    “The labor market is structurally tighter post-pandemic,” he said.

    Every January, the BLS makes revisions on its employment data to reflect updated population estimates and other factors.

    “On net, you saw stronger hiring in 2022 than what was initially reported,” said Sarah House, chief economist with Wells Fargo, told CNN.

    Average monthly job growth in 2022 was revised up from an average of 375,000 per month to 401,000, she said.

    Seasonality questions aside, other trends do align to support a strong January 2023 jobs report, Bankrate’s Hamrick said.

    “When you have a number of things lining up, almost like a crime scene investigation, it tends to lend some credibility to that question of believability,” he said of the surprising half-a-million-plus job gains. “What are the things that are lining up? The continued remarkably low level of jobless claims, the rise in job openings, the increase in labor force participation.”

    The gains were also widespread across industries, with job growth led by leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care, according to the BLS report.

    Industries that shed jobs last month included motor vehicles and parts (down 6,500 jobs), utilities (down 700 jobs) and information (down 5,000 jobs).

    In recent months, mass layoff announcements — especially from Big Tech — had spurred concern that the cutbacks were a harbinger of broader cutbacks to come.

    That doesn’t appear to be the case, considering jobless claims have remained historically low, job openings haven’t slipped and job gains remain strong, said Giacomo Santangelo, economist at Monster.

    “The news is talking about big names laying off, but we don’t really hear what happens at small firms with less than 200 employees,” he said. “What we’re seeing at Monster is a lot of firms, a majority of firms, are looking to hire.”

    The glut of available jobs — there are 1.9 open positions for every one job seeker — coupled with skills that are in high demand mean that workers are likely finding jobs quickly, he said. Additionally, those laid off by large technology firms likely received generous severance packages, so not all are filing for unemployment benefits.

    Friday’s report showed that the median duration of unemployment was 9.1 weeks, just a smidge above the pre-pandemic level of 8.9 weeks in February 2020.

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  • What to look for in Friday’s jobs report | CNN Business

    What to look for in Friday’s jobs report | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    A week that has been chock-full of economic data will be capped off Friday with the first US jobs report of 2023.

    Economists estimate that 185,000 positions were likely added in January, according to Refinitiv.

    That would be a considerable drop from the 504,000 jobs added in January 2022 and the 520,000 added in January 2021. It also would nearly match the 183,000 monthly average between 2010 and 2019, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

    And yet, while the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes have helped make a dent in inflation and resulted in slower economic activity without stark rises in unemployment, the full effects have yet to come, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned Wednesday.

    “I would say it is a good thing the disinflation we have seen so far has not come at the expense of a weaker labor market,” Powell said in a news conference following the Fed’s first monetary policymaking meeting of the year. “But I would also say the inflationary process you see under way is really at an early stage.”

    America’s unemployment rate dipped back down in December to 3.5%, once again matching a 50-year low. It’s expected to tick up to 3.6% come Friday.

    Layoff announcements — led by large tech firms — are picking up steam: The 43,651 job cuts announced in December jumped to 102,943 in January, according to a new data released Thursday morning by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

    Still, those spikes in cutbacks haven’t become widespread. New data released Thursday by the Labor Department showed weekly initial jobless claims fell for the fourth time in five weeks, landing at 183,000, which is the lowest weekly total since April.

    “It’s a very interesting time where it’s really not clear whether what we’re seeing is a welcome, healthy rebalancing of the labor market — or a more worrying stall,” said Julia Pollak, senior economist with ZipRecruiter.

    Beyond the key headline indicators of payroll gains, unemployment and average hourly earnings, here are some other areas of the jobs report that Pollak and other economists will scrutinize when the January jobs report is released Friday morning.

    In December, the average working week for employees — including part-time workers — was 34.3 hours, according to BLS data.

    That’s down from the January 2021 high of 35 hours when the average workweek ballooned as workers were scarce and other employees were forced to pick up the slack and the extra shifts, Pollak said.

    “Typically, in good times, the workweek tends to be somewhere between 34.3 and 34.6 hours on average, and somehow it’s slowed all the way down to the bottom end of that range,” she said. “If it continues to deteriorate, that would suggest weakening demand for labor.”

    And usually, when demand gets weak, hiring stalls and layoffs and job losses follow, she said.

    As businesses recovered from the pandemic, they’ve increasingly relied on staffing agencies and contract employees. That sector started the pandemic with 2.9 million employees, plummeted to 1.9 million during the April 2020 trough, hit a record high of 3.56 million in July 2022 and has declined in each month since.

    “The recent decline in temp staffing is mostly the result of a healthy recovery in full-time, in-house hiring,” Pollak said. “But if it falls much below 3 million, I think that would be a warning sign as well.”

    Temporary and contract hiring can show where businesses expand and reduce their workforce at the margins, said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo.

    “The fact that we see that paring down suggests that the demand backdrop is starting to soften, and maybe they just don’t see the reason to hire and expand as much as they had previously,” House said.

    The imbalance of labor demand and worker supply has been consistently highlighted by the Fed as a potential sticking point in its efforts to lower inflation. While Fed officials have noted that wages don’t appear to be driving inflation, they have expressed concern that a a low participation rate and the imbalance of worker supply and demand could cause pay to rise and, in turn, cause higher prices.

    The labor force participation rate inched up two-tenths of a percentage point in December to 62.3%. Although that came following three consecutive months of declines, the percentage of people working or actively looking for work hovered between 62.1% and 62.4% throughout 2022.

    Based on Wednesday’s labor turnover data, that gap grew wider in December: There were 11.01 million job openings, or 1.9 available jobs for every unemployed person that month.

    “Long Covid is pretty real, and there’s a sizable share of the population who continue to suffer health effects related to Covid that are preventing them from being able to work,” said John Leer, chief economist with Morning Consult. “Then there’s ongoing child care challenges; we’ve got a lot of folks who retired early; we’ve got limited immigration not where it was pre-pandemic.”

    Beyond that and the ongoing demographic shifts of Baby Boomers aging out of the workforce, there’s also possibly some “information asymmetry” that’s occurring, he said.

    “There are people outside of the labor market who aren’t working, and they just simply don’t know how needed they are right now,” he said. “And I think that’s a function of being a little removed. The world has changed pretty dramatically over the last two to three years, and it’s going to be difficult to show people that the skills they possess are needed right now.”

    The government’s monthly jobs report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.

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  • New year, new voters in Fed policymaking | CNN Business

    New year, new voters in Fed policymaking | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    Every year the Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee — aka the officials who decide interest rate moves — gets a slight refresh, with four of the district presidents rotating out as official voting members and four rotating in.

    The 2023 rotation brings a more dovish-leaning flock, and it comes during a critical year for the US central bank and the American economy.

    This year the Federal Open Market Committee’s new voting members include the newest district president Austan Goolsbee, head of the Chicago Fed; Patrick Harker, of the Philadelphia Fed; Lorie Logan, the Dallas Fed president who started in August 2022; and Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed.

    Rotating out as voting members are James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed; Susan Collins of the Boston Fed; Esther George, the Kansas City Fed chief who’s also retiring this month; and Loretta Mester of the Cleveland Fed.

    On the whole the FOMC contingent remains largely similar, with eight of the 12 voting members continuing from 2022. The non-voting members still lend their voices and perspectives to the proceedings.

    Following a stretch of seven consecutive heavy-handed interest rate hikes last year to battle rising prices, the Fed this year is expected to take a more delicate approach to its blunt monetary policy tools by downshifting on rate increases to an eventual idle.

    For new Fed members, be they governors or district presidents, it can take a while to stake out their territory and potentially differ from consensus, said Ellen Meade, a Duke University economics professor who had a 25-year career at the Fed.

    History has shown that the Reserve bank presidents typically tend to dissent more than board members; however, even that is a small percentage — about 7% — of votes cast, she added.

    “I’m not expecting that we will see a lot of dissent in terms of votes,” she said. “I think where we might see it is how they color the data that they’re seeing.”

    “Hawks” and “doves” are commonly used terms to describe Fed members’ differing monetary policy approaches. Doves tend to favor looser monetary policy and issues like low unemployment over low inflation. Hawks, however, favor robust rate hikes and keeping inflation low above all else.

    “If I had to qualify them as the hawkish- or dovish-leaning, I would say that last year’s constellation was a reasonably hawkish one, and this year’s constellation is almost certainly not quite as hawkish,” Meade said.

    That could change, however, if Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard leaves to head President Joe Biden’s economic council. Brainard has been considered as leaning more dovish than Powell and others, so her departure could result in a more hawkish shift in ideology at the top of the Fed.

    U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 14, 2022, in Washington, DC.

    This particular Fed is obviously not quite as well known, Meade noted, adding that “because we have some new policymakers voting in 2023, we don’t have as much information on their policy inclinations as we did for last year’s voters.”

    For any potential split to occur would take some large moves in labor market outcomes – something not seen to this point, Meade said.

    “If [moderating inflation] holds up and the labor market softens but doesn’t take a very negative turn, then I think consensus is with us,” she said. “I think the question is what happens if the labor market starts to turn quickly?”

    The Fed has indicated, through its economic projections, that it would tolerate unemployment rising to the 4.5% to 4.75% range. But if that grows closer or past 5% and inflation hasn’t moderated as much as desired, “then I think we’re in a place where we’re going to see more signs of disagreement.”

    As it stands now, Fed officials have largely been singing from the same songbook, said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist and founder of Sahm Consulting.

    “Whether it was voting members or non-voting members, you didn’t see a lot of pushback in public,” she said. “There was really a unified force of ‘we’re going to go big, and we’re going to go fast.’”

    That unified messaging continued during recent speeches on how the Fed would slow it down, be patient and stay the course, Sahm added.

    “The Fed is being very clear across the board, even people you would think of as more ‘dovish,’ that they do not want to let up too soon and get us into a situation where then they have to come back and do even more,” she said. “I don’t think that switching up who’s voting will matter much.”

    “They’re all hawks now,” Sahm added.

    The Fed also does not want to be in a position where it is lulled into a false sense of security by positive inflation data, she added. Fed Governor Christopher Waller put it bluntly in a speech last week: “We do not want to be head-faked.”

    “It’s going to take months and months of good news, and frankly, we’re in store for a bumpy ride this year,” Sahm said. “It’s not like every month is going to be good news on inflation.”

    Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed president and CEO, new 2023 FOMC voting member

    Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed president and CEO, new FOMC voting member for 2023

    Lorie Logan, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president and CEO, and new voting member for 2023.

    Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed president and CEO, and new FOMC voting member for 2023

    2023 Federal Open Market Committee

    Permanent voting members (Board of Governors):

    Jerome Powell, chair

    Lael Brainard, vice chair

    Michael Barr, vice chair for supervision

    Michelle Bowman, governor

    Lisa Cook, governor

    Philip Jefferson, governor

    Christopher Waller, governor

    Voting Districts:

    John Williams, New York (permanent voting district)

    *Austan Goolsbee, Chicago

    *Patrick Harker, Philadelphia

    *Lorie Logan, Dallas

    *Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis

    Non-voting districts:

    Helen Mucciolo, interim first vice president, New York

    Loretta Mester, Cleveland

    Thomas Barkin, Richmond

    Raphael Bostic, Atlanta

    Mary Daly, San Francisco

    James Bullard, St. Louis

    Esther George, Kansas City (plans to retire this month)

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  • Jobs report to give further clues about where economy is headed | CNN Business

    Jobs report to give further clues about where economy is headed | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates again on Wednesday. But will it be another half-point hike or just a quarter-point increase? And what about the rest of the year?

    The Fed’s actions beyond this week’s meeting will depend primarily on whether inflation is truly slowing. Investors will get another clue when the January jobs report is released on Friday.

    Economists predict that 185,000 jobs were added last month, a slowdown from the gain of 223,000 jobs in December and 263,000 in November. A further deceleration in the labor market would likely please the Fed, as it would show that last year’s rate hikes are successfully taking some air out of the economy.

    The Fed knows it’s in a tough situation. Inflation pressures are partly fueled by wage gains for workers. In an environment where the unemployment rate is at a half-century low of 3.5%, employees have been able to command big increases in pay to keep up with rising prices of consumer goods and services.

    Along those lines, average hourly earnings, a measure of wages that is also part of the monthly jobs report, are expected to increase 4.3% year-over year. That’s down from 4.6% in December and 5.1% in November.

    As wage growth cools, so do price increases. The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation – the Personal Consumption Price Index or PCE – rose “just” 5% over the past 12 months through last December, compared to a 5.5% annual increase in November.

    That is still uncomfortably high, but the trend is moving in the right direction.

    The problem for the Fed, though, is that it may need to keep raising interest rates until there is further evidence that the labor market is cooling off enough to push the rate of inflation even lower.

    Several other job market indicators continue to show that the US economy is in no serious danger of a recession just yet. The number of people filing for weekly jobless claims dipped last week to 186,000, a nine-month low. Investors will get the latest weekly initial claims numbers on Thursday.

    The market will also be closely watching reports about private-sector job growth from payroll processor ADP and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Department of Labor this week. The last JOLTS report showed that more jobs were available than expected in November.

    Still, some expect that wage growth should continue to fall, which should take pressure off the Fed somewhat.

    “Wage growth has been on a slowing trajectory, and we suspect that softer wage growth will be a trend in 2023 as jobs available contract,” said Tony Welch, chief investment officer at SignatureFD, a wealth management firm, in a report.

    Not everyone agrees with that assessment. Organized labor has been winning bigger pay increases lately in the transportation industry. And more workers at tech and retail giants have been unionizing as of late.

    “Workers will be loath to relinquish the bargaining power they perceive to have gained over the past year,” said Jason Vaillancourt, global macro strategist at Putnam, in a report.

    Vaillancourt also pointed out that many consumers are still flush with cash that they saved up during the early stages of the pandemic. That could mean that inflation isn’t going away anytime soon.

    And even though the pace of jobs gains may be slowing, it’s not as if economists are starting to predict monthly job losses like the US has had in previous recessions.

    “Combine a strong labor market with a still substantial reserve of excess savings, and you have all the components in place to keep the Fed up at night,” Vaillancourt said.

    So as long as hopes for an economic “soft landing” persist, the Fed will have to keep worrying that inflation is too high. That increases the chances the Fed could go too far with rate hikes and ultimately lead to a recession.

    Wall Street is clearly buying into the “soft landing” argument. Just look at how well tech stocks have done so far this year, despite a series of high-profile layoff announcements from top Silicon Valley companies in the past few months.

    The Nasdaq is up 11% so far in January, putting it on track for its best monthly performance since July.

    Some argue that more tech layoffs won’t be a problem. Investors seem to be (somewhat perversely) taking the view that companies cutting costs is a good thing for profits and that revenue likely won’t be impacted in a negative way because consumers are still spending.

    “A theme that can’t go unnoticed this month is how traders are rewarding firms for cutting jobs. With corporate layoffs making headlines each evening, you might think the consumer is strained. Maybe not so much. It turns out that demand is decent,” said Frank Newman, portfolio manager at Ally Invest, in a report.

    But a continuation of the Nasdaq’s surge may depend a lot on how well a quartet of tech leaders do when they report fourth quarter earnings next week: Facebook and Instagram owner Meta Platforms, Apple

    (AAPL)
    , Google owner Alphabet

    (GOOGL)
    and Amazon

    (AMZN)
    .

    “A set of much weaker-than-expected reports from these firms could dent the market’s strong start to 2023,” said Daniel Berkowitz, senior investment officer for investment manager Prudent Management Associates, in a report.

    So far, tech earnings season is not off to an inspiring start, with Microsoft

    (MSFT)
    , Intel

    (INTC)
    and IBM

    (IBM)
    all reporting weak results. But it’s important to note that that trio is part of the “old tech” guard while Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta all have more rapidly growing businesses.

    Tesla

    (TSLA)
    reported strong results last week, which could be a sign of good things to come from other more dynamic tech companies.

    Monday: IMF releases world outlook; earnings from Philips

    (PHG)
    , GE Healthcare, Franklin Resources

    (BEN)
    , SoFi, Ryanair

    (RYAAY)
    , Whirlpool

    (WHR)
    and Principal Financial

    (PFG)

    Tuesday: China official PMI; Europe GDP; US employment cost index; US consumer confidence; earnings from Exxon Mobil

    (XOM)
    , Samsung

    (SSNLF)
    , GM

    (GM)
    , Phillips 66

    (PSX)
    , Marathon Petroleum

    (MPC)
    , UPS

    (UPS)
    , Pfizer

    (PFE)
    , Sysco

    (SYY)
    , Caterpillar

    (CAT)
    , UBS

    (UBS)
    , McDonald’s

    (MCD)
    , Spotify

    (SPOT)
    , Mondelez

    (MDLZ)
    , Amgen

    (AMGN)
    , AMD

    (AMD)
    , Electronic Arts

    (EA)
    , Snap

    (SNAP)
    and Match

    (MTCH)

    Wednesday: Fed meeting; US ADP private sector jobs; US JOLTS; China Caixin PMI; Europe inflation; earnings from AmerisourceBergen

    (ABC)
    , Humana

    (HUM)
    , T-Mobile

    (TMUS)
    , Novartis

    (NVS)
    , Altria

    (MO)
    , Peloton

    (PTON)
    , Meta Platforms, McKesson

    (MCK)
    , MetLife

    (MET)
    and AllState

    (ALL)

    Thursday: US weekly jobless claims; US productivity; BOE meeting; ECB meting; Germany trade data; earnings from Cardinal Health

    (CAH)
    , ConocoPhillips

    (COP)
    , Merck

    (MRK)
    , Bristol-Myers

    (BMY)
    , Honeywell

    (HON)
    , Eli Lilly

    (LLY)
    , Stanley Black & Decker

    (SWK)
    , Hershey

    (HSY)
    , Sirius XM

    (SIRI)
    , Penn Entertainment

    (PENN)
    , Ferrari

    (RACE)
    , Harley-Davidso

    (HOG)
    n, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Ford

    (F)
    , Qualcomm

    (QCOM)
    , Starbucks

    (SBUX)
    , Gilead Sciences

    (GILD)
    , Hartford Financial

    (HIG)
    , Clorox

    (CLX)
    and WWE

    (WWE)

    Friday: US jobs report; US ISM non-manufacturing (services) index; earnings from Cigna

    (CI)
    , Sanofi

    (SNY)
    , LyondellBasell

    (LYB)
    and Regeneron

    (REGN)

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  • Fact check: Biden makes false and misleading claims in economic speech | CNN Politics

    Fact check: Biden makes false and misleading claims in economic speech | CNN Politics

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    President Joe Biden delivered a Thursday speech to hail economic progress during his administration and to attack congressional Republicans for their proposals on the economy and the social safety net.

    Some of Biden’s claims in the speech were false, misleading or lacking critical context, though others were correct. Here’s a breakdown of the 14 claims CNN fact-checked.

    Touting the bipartisan infrastructure law he signed in 2021, Biden said, “Last year, we funded 700,000 major construction projects – 700,000 all across America. From highways to airports to bridges to tunnels to broadband.”

    Facts First: Biden’s “700,000” figure is wildly inaccurate; it adds an extra two zeros to the correct figure Biden used in a speech last week and the White House has also used before: 7,000 projects. The White House acknowledged his misstatement later on Thursday by correcting the official transcript to say 7,000 rather than 700,000.

    Biden said, “Well, here’s the deal: I put a – we put a cap, and it’s now in effect – now in effect, as of January 1 – of $2,000 a year on prescription drug costs for seniors.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claims that this cap is now in effect and that it came into effect on January 1 are false. The $2,000 annual cap contained in the Inflation Reduction Act that Biden signed last year – on Medicare Part D enrollees’ out-of-pocket spending on covered prescription drugs – takes effect in 2025. The maximum may be higher than $2,000 in subsequent years, since it is tied to Medicare Part D’s per capita costs.

    Asked for comment, a White House official noted that other Inflation Reduction Act health care provisions that will save Americans money did indeed come into effect on January 1, 2023.

    – CNN’s Tami Luhby contributed to this item.

    Criticizing former President Donald Trump over his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, Biden said, “Back then, only 3.5 million people had been – even had their first vaccination, because the other guy and the other team didn’t think it mattered a whole lot.”

    Facts First: Biden is free to criticize Trump’s vaccine rollout, but his “only 3.5 million” figure is misleading at best. As of the day Trump left office in January 2021, about 19 million people had received a first shot of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to figures published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The “3.5 million” figure Biden cited is, in reality, the number of people at the time who had received two shots to complete their primary vaccination series.

    Someone could perhaps try to argue that completing a primary series is what Biden meant by “had their first vaccination” – but he used a different term, “fully vaccinated,” to refer to the roughly 230 million people in that very same group today. His contrasting language made it sound like there are 230 million people with at least two shots today versus 3.5 million people with just one shot when he took office. That isn’t true.

    Biden said Republicans want to cut taxes for billionaires, “who pay virtually only 3% of their income now – 3%, they pay.”

    Facts First: Biden’s “3%” claim is incorrect. For the second time in less than a week, Biden inaccurately described a 2021 finding from economists in his administration that the wealthiest 400 billionaire families paid an average of 8.2% of their income in federal individual income taxes between 2010 and 2018; after CNN inquired about Biden’s “3%” claim on Thursday, the White House published a corrected official transcript that uses “8%” instead. Also, it’s important to note that even that 8% number is contested, since it is an alternative calculation that includes unrealized capital gains that are not treated as taxable income under federal law.

    “Biden’s numbers are way too low,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute think tank, though Gleckman also said we don’t know precisely what tax rates billionaires do pay. Gleckman wrote in an email: “In 2019, Berkeley economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabe Zucman estimated the top 400 households paid an average effective tax rate of about 23 percent in 2018. They got a lot of attention at the time because that rate was lower than the average rate of 24 percent for the bottom half of the income distribution. But it still was way more than 2 or 3, or even 8 percent.”

    Biden has cited the 8% statistic in various other speeches, but unlike the administration economists who came up with it, he tends not to explain that it doesn’t describe tax rates in a conventional way. And regardless, he said “3%” in this speech and “2%” in a speech last week.

    Biden cited a 2021 report from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy think tank that found that 55 of the country’s largest corporations had made $40 billion in profit in their previous fiscal year but not paid any federal corporate income taxes. Before touting the 15% alternative corporate minimum tax he signed into law in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, Biden said, “The days are over when corporations are paying zero in federal taxes.”

    Facts First: Biden exaggerated. The new minimum tax will reduce the number of companies that don’t pay any federal taxes, but it’s not true that the days of companies paying zero are “over.” That’s because the minimum tax, on the “book income” companies report to investors, only applies to companies with at least $1 billion in average annual income. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, only 14 of the companies on its 2021 list of 55 non-payers reported having US pre-tax income of at least $1 billion.

    In other words, there will clearly still be some large and profitable corporations paying no federal income tax even after the minimum tax takes effect this year. The exact number is not yet known.

    Matthew Gardner, a senior fellow at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, told CNN in the fall that the new tax is “an important step forward from the status quo” and that it will raise substantial revenue, but he also said: “I wouldn’t want to assert that the minimum tax will end the phenomenon of zero-tax profitable corporations. A more accurate phrasing would be to say that the minimum tax will *help* ensure that *the most profitable* corporations pay at least some federal income tax.”

    There are lots of nuances to the tax; you can read more specifics here. Asked for comment on Thursday, a White House official told CNN: “The Inflation Reduction Act ensures the wealthiest corporations pay a 15% minimum tax, precisely the corporations the President focused on during the campaign and in office. The President’s full Made in America tax plan would ensure all corporations pay a 15% minimum tax, and the President has called on Congress to pass that plan.”

    Noting the big increase in the federal debt under Trump, Biden said that his administration has taken a “different path” and boasted: “As a result, the last two years – my administration – we cut the deficit by $1.7 trillion, the largest reduction in debt in American history.”

    Facts First: Biden’s boast leaves out important context. It is true that the federal deficit fell by a total of $1.7 trillion under Biden in the 2021 and 2022 fiscal years, including a record $1.4 trillion drop in 2022 – but it is highly questionable how much credit Biden deserves for this reduction. Biden did not mention that the primary reason the deficit fell so substantially was that it had skyrocketed to a record high under Trump in 2020 because of bipartisan emergency pandemic relief spending, then fell as expected as the spending expired as planned. Independent analysts say Biden’s own actions, including his laws and executive orders, have had the overall effect of adding to current and projected future deficits, not reducing those deficits.

    Dan White, senior director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics – an economics firm whose assessments Biden has repeatedly cited during his presidency – told CNN’s Matt Egan in October: “On net, the policies of the administration have increased the deficit, not reduced it.” The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an advocacy group, wrote in September that Biden’s actions will add more than $4.8 trillion to deficits from 2021 through 2031, or $2.5 trillion if you don’t count the American Rescue Plan pandemic relief bill of 2021.

    National Economic Council director Brian Deese wrote on the White House website last week that the American Rescue Plan pandemic relief bill “facilitated a strong economic recovery and enabled the responsible wind-down of emergency spending programs,” thereby reducing the deficit; David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, told Egan in October that the Biden administration does deserve credit for the recovery that has pushed the deficit downward. And Deese correctly noted that Biden’s signature legislation, last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, is expected to bring down deficits by more than $200 billion over the next decade.

    Still, the deficit-reducing impact of that one bill is expected to be swamped by the deficit-increasing impact of various additional bills and policies Biden has approved.

    Biden said, “Wages are up, and they’re growing faster than inflation. Over the past six months, inflation has gone down every month and, God willing, will continue to do that.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claim that wages are up and growing faster than inflation is true if you start the calculation seven months ago; “real” wages, which take inflation into account, started rising in mid-2022 as inflation slowed. (Biden is right that inflation has declined, on an annual basis, every month for the last six months.) However, real wages are lower today than they were both a full year ago and at the beginning of Biden’s presidency in January 2021. That’s because inflation was so high in 2021 and the beginning of 2022.

    There are various ways to measure real wages. Real average hourly earnings declined 1.7% between December 2021 and December 2022, while real average weekly earnings (which factors in the number of hours people worked) declined 3.1% over that period.

    Biden said he was disappointed that the first bill passed by the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives “added $114 billion to the deficit.”

    Facts First: Biden is correct about how the bill would affect the deficit if it became law. He accurately cited an estimate from the government’s nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

    The bill would eliminate more than $71 billion of the $80 billion in additional funding for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that Biden signed into law in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Congressional Budget Office found that taking away this funding – some of which the Biden administration said will go toward increased audits of high-income individuals and large corporations – would result in a loss of nearly $186 billion in government revenue between 2023 and 2032, for a net increase to the deficit of about $114 billion.

    The Republican bill has no chance of becoming law under Biden, who has vowed to veto it in the highly unlikely event it got through the Democratic-controlled Senate.

    Biden said that “MAGA Republicans” in the House “want to impose a 30 percent national sales tax on everything from food, clothing, school supplies, housing, cars – a whole deal.” He said they want to do that because “they want to eliminate the income tax system.”

    Facts First: This is a fair description of the Republicans’ “FairTax” bill. The bill would eliminate federal income taxes, plus the payroll tax, capital gains tax and estate tax, and replace it with a national sales tax. The bill describes a rate of 23% on the “gross payments” on a product or service, but when the tax rate is described in the way consumers are used to sales taxes being described, it’s actually right around 30%, as a pro-FairTax website acknowledges.

    It is not clear how much support the bill currently has among the House Republican caucus. Notably, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told CNN’s Manu Raju this week that he opposes the bill – though, while seeking right-wing votes for his bid for speaker in early January, he promised its supporters that it would be considered in committee. Biden wryly said in his speech, “The Republican speaker says he’s not so sure he’s for it.”

    Biden claimed the unemployment rate “is the lowest it’s been in 50 years.”

    Facts First: This is true. The unemployment rate was just below 3.5% in December, the lowest figure since 1969.

    The headline monthly rate, which is rounded to a single decimal place, was reported as 3.5% in December and also reported as 3.5% in three months of President Donald Trump’s tenure, in late 2019 and in early 2020. But if you look at more precise figures, December was indeed the lowest since 1969 – 3.47% – just below the figures for February 2020, January 2020 and September 2019.

    Biden said that the unemployment rates for Black and Hispanic Americans are “near record lows” and that the unemployment rate for people with disabilities is “the lowest ever recorded” and the “lowest ever in history.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claims are accurate, though it’s worth noting that the unemployment rate for people with disabilities has only been released by the government since 2008.

    The Black or African American unemployment rate was 5.7% in December, not far from the record low of 5.3% that was set in August 2019. (This data series goes back to 1972.) The rate was 9.2% in January 2021, the month Biden became president. The Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate was 4.1% in December, just above the record low of 4.0% that was set in September 2019. (This data series goes back to 1973.) The rate was 8.5% in January 2021.

    The unemployment rate for people with disabilities was 5.0% in December, the lowest since the beginning of the data series in 2008. The rate was 12.0% in January 2021.

    Biden said that fewer families are facing foreclosure than before the pandemic.

    Facts First: Biden is correct. According to a report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, about 28,500 people had new foreclosure notations on their credit reports in the third quarter of 2022, the most recent quarter for which data is available; that was down from about 71,420 people with new foreclosure notations in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 74,860 people in the first quarter of 2020.

    Foreclosures plummeted in the second quarter of 2020 because of government moratoriums put in place because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Foreclosures spiked in 2022, relative to 2020-2021 levels, after the expiry of these moratoriums, but they remained very low by historical standards.

    Biden said, “More American families have health insurance today than any time in American history.”

    Facts First: Biden’s claim is accurate. An analysis provided to CNN by the Kaiser Family Foundation, which studies US health care, found that about 295 million US residents had health insurance in 2021, the highest on record – and Jennifer Tolbert, the foundation’s director for state health reform, told CNN this week that “I expect the number of people with insurance continued to increase in 2022.”

    Tolbert noted that the number of insured residents generally rises over time because of population growth, but she added that “it is not a given” that there will be an increase in the number of insured residents every year – the number declined slightly under Trump from 2018 to 2019, for example – and that “policy changes as well as economic factors also affect these numbers.”

    As CNN’s Tami Luhby has reported, sign-ups on the federal insurance exchange created by the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, have spiked nearly 50% under Biden. Biden’s 2021 American Rescue Plan pandemic relief law and then the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act temporarily boosted federal premium subsidies for exchange enrollees, and the Biden administration has also taken various other steps to get people to sign up on the exchanges. In addition, enrollment in Medicaid health insurance has increased significantly during the Covid-19 pandemic, in part because of a bipartisan 2020 law that temporarily prevented people from being disenrolled from the program.

    The percentage of residents without health insurance fell to an all-time low of 8.0% in the first quarter of 2022, according to an analysis published last summer by the federal government’s Department of Health and Human Services. That meant there were 26.4 million people without health insurance, down from 48.3 million in 2010, the year Obamacare was signed into law.

    Biden said, “And over the last two years, more than 10 million people have applied to start a small business. That’s more than any two years in all of recorded American history.”

    Facts First: This is true. There were about 5.4 million business applications in 2021, the highest since 2005 (the first year for which the federal government released this data for a full year), and about 5.1 million business applications in 2022. Not every application turns into a real business, but the number of “high-propensity” business applications – those deemed to have a high likelihood of turning into a business with a payroll – also hit a record in 2021 and saw its second-highest total in 2022.

    Trump’s last full year in office, 2020, also set a then-record for total and high-propensity applications. There are various reasons for the pandemic-era boom in entrepreneurship, which began after millions of Americans lost their jobs in early 2020. Among them: some newly unemployed workers seized the moment to start their own enterprises; Americans had extra money from stimulus bills signed by Trump and Biden; interest rates were particularly low until a series of rate hikes that began in the spring of 2022.

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  • India is set to become the world’s most populous country. Can it create enough jobs? | CNN Business

    India is set to become the world’s most populous country. Can it create enough jobs? | CNN Business

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    New Delhi
    CNN
     — 

    India will overtake China this year to become the world’s most populous country.

    The likelihood of India passing that major milestone within a few months shot up Tuesday, when China reported that its population shrank in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years.

    This shift will have significant economic implications for both Asian giants, which have more than 1.4 billion residents each.

    Along with the population data, China also reported one of its worst economic growth numbers in nearly half a century, underscoring the steep challenges the country faces as its labor force shrinks and the ranks of the retired swell.

    For India, what economists and analysts call the “demographic dividend” could continue to support rapid growth as the number of healthy workers increases.

    There are fears the country might miss out, however. That’s because India is simply not creating employment opportunities for the millions of young job seekers already entering the workforce every year.

    The South Asian nation’s working-age population stands at over 900 million, according to 2021 data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This number is expected to hit more than 1 billion over the next decade, according to the Indian government.

    But these numbers could become a liability if policymakers do not create enough jobs, experts warned. Already, data show a growing number of Indians are not even looking for work, given the lack of opportunities and low wages.

    India’s labor force participation rate, an estimation of the active workforce and people looking for work, stood at 46%, which is among the lowest in Asia, according to 2021 data from the World Bank. By comparison, the rates for China and the United States stood at 68% and 61% respectively in the same year.

    For women, the numbers are even more alarming. India’s female work participation rate was just 19% in 2021, down from about 26% in 2005, the World Bank data shows.

    “India is sitting on a time bomb,” Chandrasekhar Sripada, professor of organizational behavior at the Indian School of Business, told CNN. “There will be social unrest if it cannot create enough employment in a relatively short period of time.”

    India’s unemployment rate in December stood at 8.3%, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), an independent think tank headquartered in Mumbai, which publishes job data more regularly than the Indian government. In contrast, the US rate was about 3.5% at the end of last year.

    “India has the world’s largest youth population … There is no dearth of capital in the world today,” Mahesh Vyas, the CEO of CMIE, wrote in a blog post last year. “Ideally, India should be grabbing this rare opportunity of easy availability of labor and capital to fuel rapid growth. However, it seems to be missing this bus.”

    Lack of high quality education is one of the biggest reasons behind India’s unemployment crisis. There has been a “massive failure at the education level” by policymakers, said Sripada, adding that Indian institutions emphasize “rote-learning” over “creative thinking.”

    As a result of this toxic combination of poor education and lack of jobs, thousands of college graduates, including those with doctorates, end up applying for lowly government jobs, such as those of “peons” or office boys, which pay less than $300 a month.

    The good news is that policymakers have recognized this problem and started putting “reasonable emphasis on skill creation now,” Sripada said. But it will be years before the impact of new policies can be seen, he added.

    Asia’s third largest economy also needs to create more non-farm jobs to realize its full economic potential. According to recent government data, more than 45% of the Indian workforce is employed in the agriculture sector.

    The country needs to create at least 90 million new non-farm jobs by 2030 to absorb new workers, according to a 2020 report by McKinsey Global Institute. Many of these jobs can be created in the manufacturing and constructions sectors, experts said.

    As tensions between China and the West rise, India has made some progress in boosting manufacturing by attracting international giants such as Apple to produce more in the country. But, factories still constitute only 14% of India’s GDP, according to the World Bank.

    With a 6.8% expansion in GDP forecast for this fiscal year ending March, the South Asian nation is expected to be the world’s fastest growing major economy. But, according to a former central banker, even this growth is “insufficient.”

    “A lot of this growth is jobless growth. Jobs are essentially task one for the economy. We don’t need everybody to be a software programmer or consultant but we need decent jobs,” Raghuram Rajan, the former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, told media company NDTV, last year.

    According to the Mckinsey report, for “gainful and productive employment growth of this magnitude, India’s GDP will need to grow by 8.0% to 8.5% annually over the next decade.”

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  • America capped off an extraordinary year for job growth, adding 223,000 positions in December | CNN Business

    America capped off an extraordinary year for job growth, adding 223,000 positions in December | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    The US economy added 223,000 jobs in December, according to the monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, capping a year of extraordinary job growth and marking the second-best year for the labor market in records that go back to 1939.

    The unemployment rate fell back to a record low of 3.5% from a revised 3.6% in November.

    Economists were expecting 200,000 job gains for the last month of the year, according to Refinitiv. December’s job total is lower than the downwardly revised 256,000 jobs added in November.

    Including last month’s gains, which are subject to revision, the economy added about 4.5 million jobs in 2022. That’s the second-highest-ever total, after the 6.7 million jobs added in 2021 — a boomerang from 2020’s 9.3 million job losses.

    The labor market slowed in 2022, compared to the previous year’s tear. December’s jobs total represents the lowest monthly gains in two years.

    Those latest gains come following months of jumbo interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve in its attempt to cool off the economy after inflation last year hit its highest level since the 1980s. Those efforts have, so far, remained mostly elusive.

    That means the Fed is entering 2023 looking for a considerably softer and looser labor market — notably, increased labor participation, a better alignment of job seekers to open positions, and lower levels of wage growth.

    “This is about the best report one could hope for, given a still very hot US labor market,” said Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US.

    Wall Street responded positively to Friday’s jobs data, with the Dow rising by almost 500 points by mid-morning — mostly a reaction to the slower pace of wage growth. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% over the previous month and 4.6% annually. That’s compared to 0.4% month-on-month growth in November and 4.8% annual growth.

    The December report showed that the labor force participation rate, an estimation of the active workforce and people looking for work, ticked up to 62.3% from 62.2%.

    Labor force participation rates have been on a decline — largely due to demographic changes and aging Baby Boomers — since hitting a high of 67.3% in early 2000, and had fallen to 63.3% in the month before the onset of the pandemic. The participation rate has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, vexing economists and the Fed, while also contributing to an imbalance of worker supply and demand.

    “The labor market is moving in the right direction for the Federal Reserve, according to the December employment report, but is not there yet,” Gus Faucher, senior economist for PNC Financial services said in a statement. “Job growth is slowing to a more sustainable pace, and wage growth is softening as demand in the job market slackens somewhat.”

    However, with job growth well above pre-pandemic levels, when job gains averaged 164,000 in 2019, and the unemployment rate returning to a 50-year low, there is little indication that there will be enough of a boost in the labor force to help cool off the job market, he said.

    Some of the largest monthly gains were in industries such as leisure and hospitality, health care, and accommodation and food services, which all were hit hard during the pandemic. There were also notable monthly job losses in technology and interest-rate-sensitive sectors that surged during the pandemic and are now rebalancing as consumers shift spending toward services.

    Industries such as information, finance and professional and business services, shed jobs between November and December.

    The losses seen in areas such as professional and business services are likely an effect of the waves of mass layoffs hitting the tech industry, said Ken Kim, a senior economist at KPMG.

    “We are seeing a little bit of spread to other areas,” he said.

    In addition to Friday’s strong jobs numbers, several other pieces of jobs data released this week continue to reflect a healthy labor market. Wednesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that the number of available jobs remained steady at 10.5 million in November. It also showed that quits, layoffs and hires didn’t really show any major signs of cooling that month.

    ADP’s private-sector employment report on Thursday also showed a robust labor market, with 235,000 jobs added in the private sector during December, well exceeding expectations of 150,000.

    And Thursday’s weekly jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 204,000 for the week ending November 26, while continuing claims decreased to 1.69 million from 1.72 million to 1.61 million.

    —CNN’s Matt Egan contributed to this report.

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  • US job openings totaled 10.5 million in November, more than expected | CNN Business

    US job openings totaled 10.5 million in November, more than expected | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    The number of available jobs in the United States totaled 10.46 million in November, according to data released Wednesday by the Department of Labor.

    That’s more than the 10 million total job openings that economists were expecting, according to Refinitiv, and slightly lower than the upwardly revised October total of 10.51 million.

    “The US labor market remains on fire,” Nick Bunker, head of economic research for Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement about the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. “The flames may have receded a bit from the highs of the initial reopening of the economy, but demand for workers remains robust and workers are seizing new opportunities.”

    There were still about 1.7 job openings for each job seeker in November, unchanged from October, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Federal Reserve closely monitors this ratio, since tightness in the labor market means employees have greater leverage to seek higher wages, which in turn drives up inflation.

    The robust number of job openings remains “a testament to the resilience of demand for labor on Main Street, even as job openings tumbled on Wall Street,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist with ZipRecruiter, in a tweet posted shortly after the report was released.

    Job hiring inched down to 6.06 million in November from 6.11 million in October, according to the report. Layoffs fell to 1.35 million from 1.45 million, and the number of people quitting their job increased to 4.17 million from 4.05 million.

    “The Great Resignation is far from over — quits surged in November, to 4.2 million,” Pollak said. “They have now been above 4 million for 18 straight months, after coming in at 3.4 million before the pandemic and averaging 2.6 million in the prior years.”

    Although openings came in above expectations, the JOLTS report likely won’t spur a dramatic change in course from the Fed, economists for labor market analytics company Lightcast said during a webcast Wednesday morning.

    “This report shows more positive signs for the economy than originally expected,” said Bledi Taska, Lightcast’s chief economist. “This was a very surprising report, but in some ways that’s positive for the economy overall. This report moves us from cautious to cautiously optimistic. I don’t expect to have to use the word recession any time soon.”

    Labor turnover activity this month will provide a good window of where the labor market may be heading, Taska said, adding that he would expect layoff activity to rise but not to a point of where it would indicate a serious recession was taking hold.

    The data comes ahead of the government’s closely watched monthly jobs report, which is set to be released on Friday and is expected to show that 200,000 jobs were added to the US economy in December.

    While that number is slightly lower than in previous months, it caps off an unusually strong year for the labor market — all the more so, given the Fed’s efforts to slow the economy in order to rein in demand and inflation.

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  • White House cautiously optimistic over economy in 2023: ‘Absolutely no sign’ job growth will tumble or unemployment will spike | CNN Politics

    White House cautiously optimistic over economy in 2023: ‘Absolutely no sign’ job growth will tumble or unemployment will spike | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    As Wall Street and Main Street fret about a potential recession, White House officials are projecting confidence about the economy’s ability to weather the storm in 2023.

    “We’re feeling cautiously optimistic because we are starting to see some real concrete measurable signs of progress,” Aviva Aron-Dine, deputy director of the White House National Economic Council, told CNN in a Zoom interview.

    The Biden administration economist pointed to a range of metrics showing inflation has cooled off, real wages have heated up and the job market has defied doomsday predictions.

    The White House is hoping for a soft landing, in which the Federal Reserve tames inflation without crashing the economy.

    “We remain optimistic about a transition to stable, steady growth with lower inflation – without giving up labor market gains, without a recession,” Aron-Dine said.

    So far, so good – at least from the administration’s perspective.

    For the moment, metrics suggest the economy has remained resilient and consumers are more optimistic as inflation has eased. The Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index this month, for example, showed a significant jump from November. And after spiking to record highs in June, gas prices have plunged to 17-month lows, delivering a major boost to consumers.

    And some broader trends appear to be working in the administration’s favor, like hiring, which has slowed but has not collapsed.

    There is “absolutely no sign” that job growth will fall on a “sustained basis” below a pace of roughly 150,000 jobs a month, Aron-Dine said.

    Last month, the US economy added a surprisingly strong 263,000 jobs. That’s down sharply from 647,000 in the same period last year – but still a very healthy pace.

    Despite a series of mass layoffs in the tech and media industries, Aron-Dine added that there is “no sign of a big increase in unemployment.”

    Indeed, initial jobless claims remain very low. The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose just slightly in the latest week and remain near two-month lows. However, some economists – including ones at the Fed – warn this trend could be about to change due in large part to continued pressure from higher borrowing costs.

    After raising interest rates for a seventh meeting in a row, the Fed last week projected the unemployment rate will rise from a historically low level of 3.7% today to 4.6% by the end of next year. That implies an increase of approximately 1.6 million unemployed people.

    Some, though certainly not all, business leaders and major banks expect the US economy will slip into a downturn next year. For instance, PNC is now projecting a “mild recession” that is similar to the downturns of 1990-1991 and 2001.

    “The risk of a recession is elevated right now – certainly higher than six months or a year ago,” Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, told CNN. “We need to be prepared for a recession sometime in the spring or summer of 2023.”

    Other economists including Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, are growing more confident a recession may be avoided.

    Although Fed officials say a soft landing is still possible, some of the Fed’s own metrics are flashing red.

    A New York Fed model that uses shifts in the bond market to forecast recession risks finds there is a 38% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. That narrowly surpasses the peak in 2019 and is the highest level since just before the Great Recession.

    There are signs that cracks are forming in consumer spending – the main engine of the US economy – due to high inflation that has forced some Americans to dip into savings and turn to credit cards. Retail sales declined in November by the most in nearly a year as shoppers pulled back on everything from furniture and cars to even e-commerce.

    Asked about the surprise retail sales slump, Aron-Dine noted this metric can experience significant volatility.

    “If you look at the data over a more extended period, you’re just not seeing any signs that would make us think that is a significant concern,” she said.

    In that effort to transition away from high inflation, Aron-Dine said, the White House continues to evaluate ongoing risks, calling the war in Ukraine “one of the most significant risks that we monitor.”

    “I think all year, we’ve seen that there are signs of real strength and opportunities for a successful transition, and that there are significant risks. And so our work, our strategy has been about trying to take advantage of the strengths and mitigates the risk,” she said, later adding, “I think we have reason for optimism, reasons to believe the US economy is well positioned, but there are global challenges and high on that list is potential downstream consequences of the war in Ukraine for food and energy as we saw this year and more generally.”

    Another hurdle Biden’s economic team will face in the new year will be achieving consensus among a newly divided Congress.

    Biden’s first two years in office were marked by the passage the administration’s proposed major spending bills aimed at bolstering the country’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure, overhauling major social safety net programs, enhancing domestic supply chains and making climate investments.

    But some major provisions the Biden White House has pushed for, including the revival of the enhanced child credit have failed to move forward in Congress. The previous expansion of the child tax credit lifted 2.1 million children out of poverty in 2021, according to the Census Bureau.

    A last-ditch effort this month to pass the credit into law as part of the $1.7 trillion government spending bill failed. And with Republicans taking over the House of Representatives next year, its passage is even less likely.

    “It is a disappointment that Republicans blocked inclusion of Child Tax Credit improvements during the lame duck,” Aron-Dine said, adding, “I won’t get ahead of agenda setting our strategy for next year, but of course, this will remain a priority for us.”

    Along with broader efforts to tackle inflation and avoid a recession, the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act will also be top of mind for Biden economic officials in the coming year.

    A slate of provisions in the IRA are scheduled to roll out in January, including home energy efficiency tax credits and a $35 cap on the cost of insulin for seniors on Medicare.

    And CNN previously reported that along with deploying a messaging strategy aimed at highlighting existing accomplishments, as Biden heads into the new year, the White House is looking to highlight ways the Inflation Reduction Act will lower everyday costs.

    Aron-Dine told CNN that the enactment of the IRA “is just going to have a huge effect in shaping our work in the year ahead, with one of our biggest priorities really being just making sure that we fully realize the potential of that law.”

    And as the administration prepares to frame Biden’s agenda ahead of the State of the Union address next year, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese told the Wall Street Journal this week that officials are considering a push for policies aimed at getting Americans back to work, including childcare and eldercare benefits.

    It’s not clear whether the White House is considering using executive authority or proposals to Congress to move forward on the initiative. Aron-Dine declined to offer specifics.

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  • The US economy grew much faster than previously thought in the third quarter | CNN Business

    The US economy grew much faster than previously thought in the third quarter | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    America’s economy grew much faster than previously thought in the third quarter, a sign that the Federal Reserve’s battle to cool the economy to fight inflation t is having only limited impact.

    The Commerce Department’s final reading Thursday morning showed gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the US economy, grew at an annual pace of 3.2% between July and September. That was above the 2.9% estimate from a month ago. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv had expected GDP to stay unchanged from its previous reading.

    The report said the stronger-than-expected reading was due to increases in exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a decrease in spending on new housing. Consumer spending is responsible for more than two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity.

    The Fed has been raising interest rates throughout the year to cool demand for goods and services and reduce inflation. Economists have been worried for quite some time that the Fed’s actions could tip the US economy into recession next year.

    Inflation has cooled in recent readings, but the US economy has stayed strong. Some surveys released this week suggest the Fed’s higher rates are not slowing spending by businesses or consumers.

    A recent survey of chief financial officers found the current level of interest rates have not impacted their spending plans. And consumer confidence improved in December according to a survey by the Conference Board, reaching the highest level since April.

    In addition, employers have continued to hire at a historically strong pace, although layoffs have increased in some industries, especially technology.

    A separate Labor Department report Thursday showed that unemployment claims remained relatively unchanged.

    Initial weekly claims for unemployment insurance benefits ticked up to 216,000 for the week ended, December 17. The previous week’s total was upwardly revised by 3,000 to 214,000.

    Economists were expecting initial claims to land at 222,000, according to Refinitiv.

    The weekly initial claims totals are hovering around pre-pandemic levels. In 2019, weekly claims averaged 218,000.

    Continuing claims, which include people who are collecting benefits on an ongoing basis, dropped slightly to 1.672 million for the week ended December 10. The prior week’s number of continuing claims were revised up to 1.678 million.

    The final GDP report is one of most backward-looking readings the government releases, looking at the state of the economy nearly three months ago. The current forecast from economists is that growth in the current period will be only 2.4%, significantly slower than Thursday’s reading.

    Still, Wall Street was concerned that the GDP report could give the Fed more runway to raise rates. Stocks fell modestly Thursday. Dow futures were 200 points, or 0.6% lower. S&P 500 futures fell 0.8%.

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  • The Fed offers more clues about rate hikes | CNN Business

    The Fed offers more clues about rate hikes | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN Business
     — 

    Americans are getting ready for food, family and football on Thursday, but investors were still holding off until Wednesday afternoon before starting to give thanks.

    That’s because the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its latest meeting at 2pm ET Wednesday, which provided more clues about the central bank’s thinking on inflation and interest rate hikes.

    At its November 2 meeting the Fed raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point — its fourth straight hike of such a large magnitude. But Fed chair Jerome Powell suggested at a press conference that the Fed may soon begin to slow the pace of hikes.

    The minutes from that meeting showed that several other Fed policymakers agreed with Powell’s assessment.

    “A number of participants observed that, as monetary policy approached a stance that was sufficiently restrictive to achieve the Committee’s goals, it would become appropriate to slow the pace of increase in the target range for the federal funds rate,” the Fed said in the minutes.

    The Fed added that “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate.”

    Stocks, which were relatively flat and meandering before the minutes came out, popped after their release. The Dow ended the day up more than 95 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 jumped 0.6% and the Nasdaq rose 1%.

    Other Fed members, most notably vice chair Lael Brainard, had also hinted n recent speeches at a slower pace of hikes. Yet there have been confusing signals from other Fed officials, who have continued to stress that inflation isn’t going away and must be brought under control.

    To that end, the Fed said in the minutes that inflation remains “stubbornly high” and “more persistent than anticipated.”

    With that in mind, traders are now pricing in a more than 75% chance that the Fed will raise rates by only a half-point at its December 14 meeting, according to futures contracts on the CME. That’s up from odds of 52% for a half-point hike a month ago, but lower than an 85% likelihood of a half-point increase that was priced in just last week.

    A recent batch of inflation reports seem to suggest that the pace of runaway price increases is finally starting to slow to more manageable levels. The job market remains relatively healthy as well, although the most recent jobless claims figures ticked up from a week ago.

    But as long as the labor market remains firm and inflation pressures continue to ebb, the Fed will likely pull back on the magnitude of its rate hikes.

    Some experts are growing concerned that if the Fed goes too far with rates, the increases could eventually slow the economy too much and potentially lead to much higher unemployment, job losses and even a recession.

    The Fed’s rate hikes have had a clear impact on the housing market, with surging mortgage rates helping to put a dent into home sales.

    Still, Wall Street is growing more confident that the Fed might be able to pull off a so-called soft landing. The Dow soared 14% in October, its best month since January 1976. The Dow is up another 4.5% in November and is now only down 6% this year.

    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also have rebounded significantly since October, but both of those broader market indexes remain down more sharply for the year than the Dow.

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  • Fed officials crushed investors’ hopes this week | CNN Business

    Fed officials crushed investors’ hopes this week | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN Business
     — 

    Investors sleuthing for clues about what the Federal Reserve will decide during its December policy meeting got quite a few this week. But those hints about the future of monetary policy point to an outcome they won’t be very happy about.

    What’s happening: Federal Reserve officials made a series of speeches this week indicating that aggressive interest rate hikes to fight inflation would continue, souring investors’ hopes for a forthcoming central bank policy shift. On Thursday, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the central bank still has a lot of work to do before it brings inflation under control, sending the S&P 500 down more than 1% in early trading. It later pared losses.

    Bullard, a voting member on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said that the moves the Fed has made so far to fight inflation haven’t been sufficient. “To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further,” he said.

    Those comments come a day after Kansas City Fed President Esther George, a voting member of the FOMC, said to The Wall Street Journal that she’s “looking at a labor market that is so tight, I don’t know how you continue to bring this level of inflation down without having some real slowing, and maybe we even have contraction in the economy to get there.”

    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added on Wednesday that a pause in rate hikes was “off the table.”

    A numbers game: Fed officials should increase interest rates to somewhere between 5% and 7% to tamp inflation, Bullard said Thursday. Those numbers shocked investors, as they would require a series of significant and economically painful hikes which increase the chance of a hard landing.

    The current interest rate sits between 3.75% and 4% and the median FOMC participant projected a peak funds rate of 4.5-4.75% in September. If those numbers hold steady, Fed members would only raise rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point.

    But Fed Chair Powell said at the November meeting that the projections are likely to rise in December and if Bullard is correct, that means investors can expect another one to three percentage points in rate hikes.

    Dreams of a pivot: October’s softer-than-expected CPI and producer price reading bolstered investors’ hopes that the Fed might ease its aggressive rate hikes and sent markets soaring to their best day since 2020 last week.

    But messaging from Fed officials this week has brought Wall Street back down to earth.

    That’s because market rallies help to expand the economy, said Liz Ann Sonders, Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, which is the opposite of what the Fed is trying to do with its tightening policy. Fed officials could be attempting to do some “jawboning” via excessively hawkish speeches in order to bring markets down, she said.

    The bottom line: Investors listen closely to Bullard’s comments because he’s known for having looser lips than other Fed officials, Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group, wrote in a note Thursday. But his hawkish predictions may have been “overboard,” especially since he won’t be a voting member of the FOMC next year.

    Still, Wall Street analysts are listening. Goldman Sachs raised its peak fed funds rate forecast on Thursday to 5-5.25%, up from 4.75-5%.

    A series of high-profile layoffs have rattled Big Tech this month.

    Amazon confirmed that layoffs had begun at the company and would continue into next year, just days after multiple outlets reported the e-commerce giant planned to cut around 10,000 employees. Facebook-parent Meta recently announced 11,000 job cuts, the largest in the company’s history. Twitter also announced widespread job cuts after Elon Musk bought the company for $44 billion.

    The series of high-profile layoff announcements prompted fears that the labor market was weakening and that a recession could be around the corner.

    Those fears aren’t unwarranted: The Federal Reserve is actively working to slow economic growth and tighten financial conditions to rebalance the white-hot labor market. Further layoffs in both tech and other industries are likely inevitable as the Fed continues to raise interest rates.

    But this wave of layoffs isn’t as significant as headlines might lead Americans to believe. Thursday’s weekly jobless claims actually fell by 4,000 to 222,000 in spite of the surge in tech job cuts.

    In a note on Thursday Goldman Sachs analysts outlined three reasons why the layoffs may not point to a looming recession in the US.

    First off, the tech industry accounts for a small share of aggregate employment in the US. While information technology companies account for 26% of the S&P 500 market cap, it accounts for less than 0.3% of total employment.

    Second, tech job openings remain well above their pre-pandemic level, so laid-off tech workers should have good chances of finding new jobs.

    Finally, tech worker layoffs have frequently spiked in the past without a corresponding increase in total layoffs and have not historically been a leading indicator of broader labor market deterioration, Goldman analysts found.

    “The main problem in the labor market is still that labor demand is too strong, not too weak,” they concluded.

    Mortgage rates dropped sharply last week following a series of economic reports that indicated inflation may finally be easing, reports my colleague Anna Bahney

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.61% in the week ending November 17, down from 7.08% the week before, according to Freddie Mac, the largest weekly drop since 1981.

    But that’s still significantly higher than a year ago when the 30-year fixed rate stood at 3.10%.

    “While the decline in mortgage rates is welcome news, there is still a long road ahead for the housing market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates high and consumers will continue to feel the impact.”

    Affording a home remains a challenge for many home buyers. Mortgage rates are expected to remain volatile for the rest of the year. And prices remain elevated in many areas, especially where there is a very limited inventory of available homes for sale.

    Meanwhile, inflation and rising interest rates mean many would-be buyers are also facing tightened budgets.

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  • Interest rates will keep rising. How high will they go? | CNN Business

    Interest rates will keep rising. How high will they go? | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN Business
     — 

    What will the Federal Reserve do at its meeting in December? Analysts can speculate all they want, but Fed officials say they will be using hard economic data to make their next decision.

    That means key housing, labor, and inflation reports will likely have outsized effects on the market as investors speculate about what they might mean for the future of interest rates.

    What’s happening: No one can move markets like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — with just a few words on Wednesday he crushed investors’ hopes of an interest rate pivot and sent stocks plunging. “We have a ways to go,” said Powell of the Fed’s current hiking regime meant to fight persistent inflation. “It’s very premature, in my view, to think about or be talking about pausing.”

    But Powell did add an important caveat. The Fed could start to slow the pace of those painful hikes as soon as December. “Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation,” Powell said on Wednesday.

    So what will the Fed be looking at between today and its next policy decision on December 14?

    The labor market: The Fed’s biggest worry is the super-tight US labor market, and Friday’s jobs report isn’t likely to soothe any nerves.

    The government report is expected to show the economy added another 200,000 positions in October — down from last month, but still a very solid number as demand for employment continues to outpace the supply of labor.

    That means more inflation. Businesses have to pay higher wages to attract employees and are able to charge more for their goods and services. The Fed will be looking closely at hourly wage growth in the report. In September, wages rose by 5% from a year ago.

    There is a possible upside: Another jobs report in December is expected ahead of the Fed meeting. If both reports show a downward trajectory in employment, that could be enough to placate Fed officials, even if the unemployment rate remains historically low.

    Inflation data: Expect new data from two major indexes that measure the pace of inflation ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting.

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, which tracks changes in the prices of a fixed set of goods and services, is out on November 10.

    Core CPI prices, which exclude oil and food, rose 0.6% in September month-over-month, matching August’s pace and coming in well above expectations of a 0.4% increase, not a great sign for the Fed. And analysts expect to see another large 0.5% increase in October.

    The Fed will also get to see October data from its favored measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), on December 1.

    PCE reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States. The Fed believes the measure is more accurate than CPI because it accounts for a wider range of purchases from a broader range of buyers.

    Core PCE climbed by 5.1% on an annual basis in September, higher than the August rate of 4.9% but below the consensus estimate of 5.2%, per Refinitiv.

    Housing: The housing market has been deeply impacted by the Fed’s efforts to fight inflation, and is one of the first areas of the economy to show signs of cooling.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.95% last week, up from 3.09% just a year ago, and elevated borrowing costs are leading to a decline in demand.

    “The housing market was very overheated for the couple of years after the pandemic as demand increased and rates were low,” said Powell on Wednesday. “We do understand that that’s really where a very big effect of our policies is.”

    October’s new and existing home sales numbers, due on November 18 and 23, will show the continued impact of that policy ahead of the next meeting.

    The US economy is still standing strong in the face of rising interest rates, but things are softening much more quickly across the pond.

    The United Kingdom will face hard economic times and elevated interest rates well into next year, officials warned this week.

    The Bank of England raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point on Thursday, the biggest hike in 33 years, as it attempts to fight soaring inflation.

    But the bank also issued a stark warning. It said that economic output is already contracting and that it expects a recession to continue through the first half of 2024 “as high energy prices and materially tighter financial conditions weigh on spending.”

    A two-year recession would be longer than the one that followed the 2008 global financial crisis, though the Bank of England said that any declines in GDP heading into 2024 would likely be relatively small.

    The central bank also doesn’t think inflation will start to fall back until next year. That will require more interest rate hikes in the coming months, warned policymakers.

    Elon Musk has been busy over at Twitter HQ. Aside from tweeting and deleting a conspiracy theory, he’s talked about implementing some big changes at his $44 billion acquisition. Here’s what’s happened so far:

    Layoffs begin: Elon Musk began laying off Twitter employees on Friday morning, according to a memo sent to staff. The email sent Thursday evening notified employees that they will receive a notice by 12 p.m. ET Friday that informs them of their employment status.

    The email added that “to help ensure the safety” of employees and Twitter’s systems, the company’s offices “will be temporarily closed and all badge access will be suspended.”

    Twitter had around 7,500 employees prior to Musk’s takeover.

    Several Twitter employees have already filed a class action lawsuit claiming that the layoffs violate the federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act.

    The WARN Act requires any company with over 100 employees to give 60 days’ written notice if it intends to cut 50 jobs or more at a “single site of employment.”

    Consolidating strength: In less than a week since Musk acquired Twitter, the company’s C-suite appears to have almost entirely cleared out, through a mix of firings and resignations.

    Twitter’s board of directors was also dissolved last week, according to a securities filing.

    The company filing states that all previous members of Twitter’s board, including recently ousted CEO Parag Agrawal and chairman Bret Taylor, are no longer directors “in accordance with the terms of the merger agreement.” That makes Musk, according to the filing, “the sole director of Twitter.”

    Cashing blue checks’ checks: Musk on Tuesday said he planned to charge $8 a month for Twitter’s subscription service, called “Twitter Blue,” with the promise to let anyone pay to receive a coveted blue check mark to verify their account. That’s a steep haircut from his original plan to charge users $19.99 a month to get or keep a verified account.

    In a tweet, the world’s richest man used an expletive to describe his assessment of “Twitter’s current lords & peasants system for who has or doesn’t have a blue checkmark.” He added: “Power to the people! Blue for $8/month.”

    Advertisers hit pause: Elon Musk wrote an open letter to advertisers just hours before cementing his acquisition of Twitter, explaining that he didn’t want the platform to become a “free-for-all hellscape.” But that attempt at reassuring the advertising industry, which makes up the vast majority of Twitter’s business, doesn’t appear to be working.

    General Mills

    (GIS)
    , Mondelez International

    (MDLZ)
    , Pfizer

    (PFE)
    and Audi

    (AUDVF)
    have reportedly joined a growing list of companies hitting pause on their Twitter advertising in the wake of Musk’s acquisition.

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  • Made in America is back, leaving US factories scrambling to find workers | CNN Business

    Made in America is back, leaving US factories scrambling to find workers | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN Business
     — 

    US factories are humming, and manufacturers are scrambling to find workers as the pace of hiring hits levels not seen in decades.

    Friday’s September jobs report showed US manufacturers added another 22,000 workers in September, increasing employment in the sector by nearly 500,000 over the course of the last 12 months.

    The nearly 13 million workers employed in US factories make up the industry’s largest workforce since the Great Recession caused employment in the sector to plunge more than a dozen years ago. Since April, manufacturing employment has been growing at about a 4% annual rate, the fastest sustained pace of growth since 1984, when the sector had more than twice as large a share of US jobs.

    And employers say they now are scrambling to fill even more jobs. The sector has had about 800,000 openings for most of the last year, despite the hiring binge, according to the Labor Department’s report.

    With supply chains causing problems throughout the global economy, many US companies that depended on overseas suppliers have been shifting their focus to sources of parts and goods much closer to home.

    “It was taking months for parts to not only get manufactured but come across and they decided they were willing to pay US manufacturing pricing to get that much faster,” said Hayden Jennison, production manager for Jennison Corporation, a Carnegie, Pennsylvania, company that makes everything from fire fighting equipment to construction machinery. He said there’s enough demand for his goods to staff an entire additional shift at the factory. But even though he’s paying $20 to $30 an hour he can’t find the workers he needs.

    “Hiring has been a problem since 2020,” Jennison said. “Hiring experienced candidates that understand the industry, and understand what they’re doing, has been very difficult.”

    Typically factory jobs and output take a hit during economic downturns, as they did during the Great Recession. But even with fears of a recession rising now, industry experts don’t expect factory jobs to default to their familiar boom-to-bust cycle this time.

    “I think we’re in uncharted territory,” said Jay Timmons, CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers. “For every 100 jobs openings in the sector we only have 60 people who are looking. I think it’ll take quite a while to fill that pipeline.”

    Timmons said that pay in the sector is up 5% over the course of the last year, and he expects it to keep rising as manufacturers scramble for skilled labor.

    Experts say one of the biggest problems manufacturers face in attracting workers is their perception of the nature of the job.

    “We often take a look at the images of manufacturing and we see the sparks flying and a welding environment and perhaps it’s a little bit dingy, dark. But by and large our manufacturing jobs today are high tech,” said Eric Esoda, CEO of a not-for-profit providing consulting and training services to small- and mid-size manufacturers in Northeast Pennsylvania.

    One group employers are looking to for more help: women. Manufacturing remains a male-dominated industry, with only 30% of hourly factory jobs held by women, according to NAM. But that’s up from 27% only two years ago, and the Manufacturing Institute, an education and workforce development arm of NAM, has various programs aimed at raising the share of women workers on factory floors to 35% by 2030.

    Today less than 10% of private sector jobs are in manufacturing, compared to more than 40% at the end of World War II. But it is still a key sector of the economy, one that pays much better than many others. The Labor Department reports the average weekly wage for manufacturing jobs is $1,250, or $65,000 annually — 11% more than private sector jobs overall, and 81% more than retail jobs.

    Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated Hayden Jennison’s job title.

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  • White-collar workers are feeling the brunt of the Fed’s rate hikes. Here’s why | CNN Business

    White-collar workers are feeling the brunt of the Fed’s rate hikes. Here’s why | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN Business
     — 

    September’s hotly anticipated jobs data ended up cooling markets on Friday. Stocks fell sharply as investors evaluated the report, which showed more jobs than expected were added to the US economy and indicated that more pain-inflicting interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve lie ahead.

    But a breakdown of the numbers shows that the Fed’s plans to weaken the labor market to fight persistent inflation may already be working, just not for everybody.

    White-collar office workers appear to be feeling the brunt of the Fed’s actions: The financial and business sector saw a large decline in employment last month. Legal and advertising services also experienced drops. Service and construction workers, meanwhile, are still thriving.

    What’s happening: The US economy added 263,000 jobs in September, higher than analyst estimates of 250,000. The unemployment rate came in at 3.5%, down from 3.7% in August.

    Leading the gain in jobs was the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 83,000 jobs in September — and employment in food services and drinking places made up 60,000 of those jobs alone. Manufacturing and construction also came in hot, adding 22,000 and 19,000 jobs, respectively.

    The largest non-governmental losses in jobs came from the financial industry, which shed 8,000 between August and September. Large banks hire in cycles, extending offers to recent graduates in the early fall months. That makes this September’s drop particularly significant.

    Business support services — such as telemarketing, accounting and administrative and clerical jobs — are also bleeding jobs. The sector lost 12,000 in September. Meanwhile, legal services lost 5,000 jobs, and advertising services also dropped 5,000 jobs.

    What it means: The Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy appears to be cooling certain parts of the economy, but not others. Finance workers are likely beginning to worry as their industry depends on stock and lending markets which have been particularly hard hit by Fed actions.

    Friday’s numbers indicate that we’re beginning to see that impact in the employment data.

    What remains to be seen is whether the Fed can cool the economy just by loosening employment in white-collar industries or if these losses will trickle down to other industries, hurting lower-income workers.

    Coming up: Earnings season begins in earnest this week with big banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup

    (C)
    , Morgan Stanley

    (MS)
    and BlackRock

    (BLK)
    reporting. Investors will be watching closely for any guidance on hiring and layoff plans.

    Two key inflation indicators, PPI and CPI are also set to be released. Expect markets to react poorly if inflation comes in hot.

    A panel of top US economists just released its economic outlook for the next year, and it’s not great.

    The panel of 45 forecasters, led by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), said they expected slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and weakening employment in both 2022 and 2023 than they previously expected.

    Most of the worries come down to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

    “More than three-quarters of respondents believe the odds are 50-50 or less that the economy will achieve a ‘soft landing’,” said NABE Vice President Julia Coronado. “More than half the panelists indicate that the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook is too much monetary tightness.”

    NABE panelists downgraded their median forecast for real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 to a 0.1% increase, compared to a 1.8% increase in the May 2022 survey. The vast majority of respondents placed more than a 25% probability of a recession occurring in 2023, with the most likely start date in the first quarter.

    The latest report comes as a growing number of economists are predicting that recession is imminent. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNN on Thursday that it’s “more likely than not” the US will enter a recession, calling it a consequence of the “excesses the economy has been through.”

    Friday’s jobs report showed that the share of workers telecommuting or working from home because of the pandemic ticked lower — falling to just 5.2% in September from 6.5% in August.

    Fully remote work in the United States, which many predicted would remain the norm long after the pandemic, appears to be edging away, especially as the job market loosens for white collar workers and employees have less leverage.

    Last week, a KPMG survey of US-based CEOs found that two-thirds believed in-office work would be the norm within the next three years.

    Still, it may not be enough to help an ailing commercial real estate market, where the outlook is dire. New York City office properties declined by nearly 45% in value in 2020 and are forecast to remain 39% below their pre-pandemic levels long-term as hybrid policies continue, according to a recent study from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

    Looking forward: The Bureau of Labor Statistics has noted that while hybrid work may still be popular, Covid-19 is no longer fueling work from home trends. The October report will rephrase its telework questions to remove references to the pandemic.

    Since May 2020, each jobs report has asked: “At any time in the last four weeks, did you telework or work at home for pay because of the Coronavirus pandemic?

    In May 2020, 35.4% answered yes.

    Starting next month, the question will be revised. “At any time in the last week did you telework or work at home for pay?” it will ask, limiting the timeline and eliminating any reference to the pandemic.

    The US bond market is closed for Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day.

    Coming later this week:

    ▸ Third quarter earnings season begins. Expect reports from big banks like JPMorgan Chase

    (JPM)
    , Wells Fargo

    (WFC)
    , Citigroup

    (C)
    , Morgan Stanley

    (MS)
    , PNC

    (PNC)
    and US Bancorp

    (USB)
    and consumer staples like Pepsi

    (PEP)
    , Walgreen

    (WBA)
    s and Domino’s

    (DMPZF)

    ▸ CPI and PPI, two closely watched measures of inflation in the US are also due to be released. 

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  • Opinion: The Fed doesn’t have a choice anymore. Get ready for a recession | CNN Business

    Opinion: The Fed doesn’t have a choice anymore. Get ready for a recession | CNN Business

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    Editor’s Note: Gad Levanon is the chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute. He’s the former head of The Conference Board’s Labor Market Institute. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own.

    To many economists and analysts, the US economy has represented a paradox this year. On the one hand, GDP growth has slowed significantly, and some argue, even entered a recession. On the other hand, overall employment growth has been much stronger than normal.

    While GDP declined at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the first half of 2022, the US economy added 2.3 million jobs in the last six months, far more than in any other six-month period in the 20 years prior to the pandemic.

    This tight labor market – and the rapid wage growth it has spurred – is causing inflation to become more entrenched. The Consumer Price Index, which measures a basket of goods and services, was 8.3% year-over-year in August. That’s lower than the 40-year high of 9.1% in June, but still painfully high. To address it, the Federal Reserve is likely to drive the economy into a recession in 2023, crushing continued job growth.

    Why has employment growth remained so strong? First, the US economy is holding on better than many expected. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.3%, suggesting that while the economy is now growing much more slowly than it did last year, we are still not in a recession. When the demand for goods and services strengthens, so does the demand for workers producing these goods and services.

    Second, despite the slowing of the economy and the growing fears of recession, layoffs are still historically low. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, an indicator highly correlated with layoffs, were 219,000 for the week ended October 1 – higher than the week prior, but still one of the lowest readings in recent decades. After years of increasingly traumatic labor shortages, many employers are reluctant to significantly reduce the number of workers even as their businesses are slowing. That’s because companies are worried that they will have trouble recruiting new workers when they start expanding again.

    Third, many industries are growing faster than normal because they are still recovering from the pandemic. Convention and trade show organizers, car rental companies, nursing homes and child day care services, among others, are all growing fast because they are still well below pre-pandemic employment levels.

    Fourth, just as some industries are growing because they are still catching up, others are experiencing high growth as they adjust to a new normal of higher demand. Demand for data processing and hosting services, semiconductor manufacturing, mental health services, testing laboratories, medical equipment and pharmaceutical manufacturing is higher than before the pandemic. And it’s likely that these represent structural changes to buying patterns that will keep demand high.

    Fifth, during the pandemic, corporate investments in software and R&D reached unprecedented levels, which drove a rapid increase in new STEM jobs. Because these workers are especially well paid, they have had plenty of disposable income to spend on goods and services, which has supported job growth throughout the economy.

    These factors are spurring positive momentum that will not disappear overnight. Employment growth is likely to slow down from its historically high rates, but it will still remain solid in the coming months. ManpowerGroup’s Employment Outlook Survey shows that the hiring intentions for the fourth quarter are still very high, despite dropping from the previous quarter.

    Next year, however, will look very different. Many of the industries that are still recovering from the pandemic will have reached pre-pandemic employment levels. With demand saturated, those industries may revert to slower hiring. But this alone is unlikely to push job growth into negative territory. What will do that is monetary policy.

    There are two ways to rein in the labor market: Either reduce demand for workers or increase the labor supply. But it’s hard to engineer a boost in labor supply. That takes the kind of legislative action needed to increase immigration, drive people into the labor force or grow investment in workforce training. This is likely to prove elusive in today’s polarized political environment.

    The only option that leaves the Fed is to engineer a recession by continuing to raise interest rates. Expect to see that happen in 2023.

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