ReportWire

Tag: Labor/Personnel Issues

  • Here are MarketWatch’s most popular Moneyist advice columns of 2022

    Here are MarketWatch’s most popular Moneyist advice columns of 2022

    What fresh shenanigans and money dilemmas enthralled readers in 2022?

    Another year of broken promises, dodgy dealings and moving letters about how to get back on one’s feet after divorce, unemployment and even a 15-year abusive relationship. 

    The most widely-read Moneyist of 2022, however, was actually one of the shortest letters from someone called ‘Surprised Sister.” The answer, as is often the case, was not so simple, nor so short.

    Here is the No. 1 Moneyist column of the year: ‘We are surprised and bewildered’: My brother passed away and left his house, cash and possessions to charity. Can his siblings contest his will?

    My response: There are times to contest a will: a parent who was being controlled by a new friend or greedy child, and/or someone who was forced to change their will when they were not of sound mind.

    But her own legal advice notwithstanding, I suggested she should accept your brother’s wishes. Feeling aggrieved that she did not inherit his estate is not enough to break his will. 

    Separate the emotions from the finance, and the answer often reveals itself. But there were others that ran the gamut from romance to stocks. They other most-read columns are an eclectic bunch:

    Here are the 5 runner-ups:

    1. I had a date with a great guy. I didn’t drink, but his wine added $36 to our bill. We split the check evenly. Should I have spoken up?

    It would be nice to offer to take the booze off the check, you were a non-drinker, would you speak up at one drink or two or three, if your date split the entire bill 50/50? 

    The financial intricacies of dating are like an onion that can be peeled ad infinitum. We’ve had plenty to chew over. Paying for one of your date’s drinks is OK, paying for two is pushing it.

    1. My father offered his 3 kids equal monetary gifts. My siblings took cash. I took stock. It’s soared in value — now they’re crying foul

    “The Other Brother” wrote that his father offered three children a choice: stocks or cash. The other two siblings took the cash. He took the cash. The stock soared. Dems are the breaks.

    Her siblings could have chosen stocks over cash, but they wanted immediate gratification. That was their decision, and they are going to have to take ownership of their choice and live with it.

    1. I’m an unmarried stay-at-home mother in a 20-year relationship, but my boyfriend won’t put my name on the deed of our house. Am I unreasonable?

    They have been in a 20-year relationship and have a 10-year-old child. “Not on the Deed” said she and her partner have had several tense “discussions” about adding me to the deed.

    I told her that her contribution to your partnership is valuable, her sense of worth is valuable, and her role as a homemaker and a mother is also valuable. Yes, he should add her.

    1. My friend got us free theater tickets. When I got home, she texted me, ‘Can you get our next meal or activity?’ Am I obliged to treat her?

    Even amidst the fights over inheritances, some breaches of social and financial etiquette seem so bizarre some people might think, ‘That behavior is too outrageous to be believable.” 

    The letter writer received free theater tickets, they split the bill 50/50 even though her friend had a cocktail, and she paid $10 for parking. Is he obliged to take her out again? No-can-do.

    1. My date chose an exclusive L.A. restaurant. After dinner, he accepted my credit card — and we split a $600 bill. Shouldn’t he have paid?

    Another dating story, this time where the guy chose a fancy restaurant and, as the date wore on, things took a turn for the worst, at least in the letter writer’s eyes: She was asked to split the bill.

    What if they didn’t get along? What if he was an abortion-rights supporter and she was anti-abortion? What if he was a Republican and she was a Democrat? Or vice-versa?  Always be prepared to pay.

    Follow Quentin Fottrell on Twitter.

    You can email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions related to coronavirus at qfottrell@marketwatch.com.

    Check out the Moneyist private Facebook group, where we look for answers to life’s thorniest money issues. Readers write to me with all sorts of dilemmas. Post your questions, tell me what you want to know more about, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.

    The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.

    More from Quentin Fottrell:

    ‘I’m left with a $100 Bûche de Noël for 10 people — and no place to go’: My friends canceled Christmas dinner. Should I end the 30-year friendship?

    I met my wife in 2019 and we married in 2020. I put her name on the deed of my $998,000 California home. Now I want a divorce. What can I do?

    I want to meet someone rich. Is that so wrong?’ I’m 46, earn $210,000, and own a $700,000 home. I’m tired of dating ‘losers.’

    Source link

  • Eat, drink and be merry: Here’s where shoppers have been spending the most money this holiday season

    Eat, drink and be merry: Here’s where shoppers have been spending the most money this holiday season

    Restaurants are set to become the biggest winners of a holiday season that could turn out to be the most normalized since the onset of the pandemic.

    That’s according to a new Mastercard SpendingPulse survey released on Monday, which showed spending at dining establishments surging 15.1% over the 2021 holiday period. Total retail expenditures for the Nov. 1–to–Dec. 24 period in 2022 rose 7.6%, with in-store spending up 6.8% and online spending up 10.6%.

    Restaurant spending beat out several other categories, such as apparel, where spending was up 4.4% from 2021, and electronics and jewelry, where a respective 5.3% and 5.4% less were spent, and department stores, which saw spending rise 1%.

    “This holiday retail season looked different than years past,” said Steve Sadove, senior adviser for Mastercard and former CEO and chairman of Saks Inc. “Retailers discounted heavily but consumers diversified their holiday spending to accommodate rising prices and an appetite for experiences and festive gatherings postpandemic.”

    Government data for November showed consumer spending was up just 0.1%, reflecting cautiousness among households and price cutting by retailers to lure those hesitant shoppers in. But the data also showed more spending on holiday recreation and travel, expected to go in the books as a busy season even if deadly winter storm may have wreaked havoc on the plans of many Americans over the Christmas weekend.

    Of course, even as some merrymakers felt confident enough to make more plans and see more friends and family this year, the virus of course continues to cause illness and death. The U.S. reported 70,000 newly diagnosed cases for the first time since September on Thursday, while 422 people died of COVID-19 on Wednesday.

    Don’t miss: As COVID cases rise, how to steer clear of viruses during the holiday season

    Also see: 4 tips for staying healthy while traveling during this ‘tripledemic’ cold and flu season

    The Mastercard SpendingPulse data measure in-store and online retail sales for all payment forms and are not inflation-adjusted.

    As for the companies that might be benefiting from that increased traffic, the year-end cheer probably won’t be enough to make a dent in what has been a difficult year with would-be consumers juggling worries over inflation, rising interest rates and a war in Europe.

    The Invesco Dynamic Leisure & Entertainment exchange-traded fund
    PEJ,
    +0.79%    ,
    whose holdings include Chipotle Mexican Grill
    CMG,
    +0.32%    ,
    McDonald’s
    MCD,
    +0.68%
    and First Watch Restaurant Group
    FWRG,
    +0.42%    ,
    has gained 6.5% to date in the fourth quarter and is down 20% for the year as of Thursday. The broad benchmark S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.59%
    is poised for a nearly 20% loss in 2022.

    Read: How a Santa Claus rally, or lack thereof, sets the stage for the stock market in first quarter

    And: Best stock picks for 2023: Here are Wall Street analysts’ most heavily favored choices

     

     

    Source link

  • Micron sales could dive more than 50%, and more belt-tightening is expected before outlook improves

    Micron sales could dive more than 50%, and more belt-tightening is expected before outlook improves

    Micron Technology Inc.’s revenue declines could worsen to more than 50% before inventory-saturated customers work though that product and boost sales in the second half of 2023, but before then the memory-chip maker is implementing some austerity measures.

    Micron
    MU,
    +1.01%
    said it expects an adjusted loss of between 72 cents and 52 cents a share on revenue of $3.6 billion to $4 billion for the fiscal second quarter, with the midpoint 51% lower than last year’s second-quarter revenue total of $7.78 billion. Analysts had forecast an adjusted loss of 32 cents a share on revenue of $3.92 billion.

    In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the memory-chip specialist disclosed that management plans to cut about 10% of its staff in 2023, “through a combination of voluntary attrition and personnel reductions.” About $30 million in restructuring costs are expected, all in the fiscal second quarter.

    Along with headcount reductions, Micron said in 2023 it will also suspend share buybacks, productivity programs and company bonuses, and that executive salaries would be “cured” for the rest of the fiscal year. Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron’s chief executive, also told analysts after the release of results that he expected profitability to remain challenged through 2023.

    Micron specializes in DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, the type of memory commonly used in PCs and servers, and NAND chips, which are the flash memory chips used in smaller devices like smartphones and USB drives.

    Micron shares were down less than 1% after hours, following a 1% rise to close the regular session at $51.19. Micron shares are down 45% for the year compared with a 19% fall by the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.49%
    and a 32% drop by the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    +1.54%
    and a 33% drop on the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    +2.36%    .

    Mehrotra said he expects DRAM growth to rise by about 10% and NAND to rise by around 20%. “For both years, demand in DRAM and NAND is well below historical trends and future expectations of growth largely due to reductions in the end demand in most markets, high inventories at customers, the impact of the macroeconomic environment and the regional factors in Europe and China,” Mehrotra said.

    “But the largest impact to the profitability and financial outlook for us is the supply-demand balance, and the rate and pace of this improvement is going to be a function of aligning supply with demand, and we’re taking decisive actions on CapEx and utilization to address it,” Mark Murphy, Micron’s chief financial officer, told analysts on the call.

    Data-center and cloud sales were considered relatively safe, but in another potentially developing crack, Mehrotra said the current environment showed some softness in cloud data-center demand, given tighter consumer spending.

    “We do absolutely expect that once we get past the current macroeconomic environment and macroeconomic weakening, longer-term trends for cloud will remain strong,” Mehrotra said. “In terms of the current environment, yes, inventory adjustments and some impact of cloud and demand weakening as well. That’s impacting our overall data-center outlook.”

    The CEO also told analysts he expects customers to be in a much better position in the burning off of their inventories by the middle of 2023.

    “By mid-calendar ’23, we are projecting, even though we don’t have perfect visibility, but based on all of our discussions with our customers, we are projecting that inventory at customers will be in relatively healthier position by that time.”

    “And that’s where we say that our second half of fiscal-year revenue will be greater than first half, and we would expect continued improvements beyond the second half as well,” the CEO said.

    Source link

  • Vanguard sees a recession in 2023 — and one ‘silver lining’ for investors

    Vanguard sees a recession in 2023 — and one ‘silver lining’ for investors

    The last 12 months was a year of fast-rising inflation, fast-rising interest rates and fast-rising questions about a future recession.

    Prices went up while stock markets and savings account balances went down, leaving consumers and investors dizzy and their wallets hurting.

    There may be more financial pain, that’s pretty sure — but it might not be as bad as feared, according to Vanguard’s look ahead to 2023.

    The likely recession will not send jobless rates charging sharply higher, sticker shock will fade for the price of goods, and the rise in rent and mortgages will also ease, Vanguard said.

    “On Tuesday, inflation data for November showed prices are continuing to cool. Analysts say that makes a 50-basis point increase, rather than a 75-basis-point increase, more likely.”

    The good news: This opens up chances for stocks to rebound, the asset-manager added.

    The outlook, released this week, comes as Americans are trying to guess what 2023 holds for their finances while they manage their holiday shopping budgets, and 2022 investments.

    On Tuesday, inflation data for November showed prices are continuing to cool. From October to November, the cost of living nudged up 0.1%, lower than the 0.3% forecast, the Consumer Price Index showed. Year over year, the inflation rate receded to 7.1% from 7.7% in October, according to the CPI data.

    On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest decision on interest rate increases. A 50-basis point increase is widely expected after four jumbo-sized 75-basis point hikes from the central bank.

    Here’s one roadmap for what’s next, as far as Vanguard’s researchers and experts can see.

    Hot inflation will cool

    Inflation rates during 2022 climbed to four-decade highs. There have been signs of easing, such as smaller-than-expected price increases in October.

    “As we step into 2023, early signs of a recovery in goods supply and softening demand could help balance supply and demand for consumption goods and bring prices lower,” the authors noted ahead of Tuesday’s CPI numbers.

    But the cost and demand of services are going to prevent a quick fall, they noted. Signs of slowing price increases are already emerging in rents and mortgages, but they will take longer to ease than prices of consumer goods, the authors said.

    That echoes the view from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said Sunday there will be “much lower inflation,” absent any unanticipated shocks to the economy.

    But while hot inflation will cool, it will still be warm to the touch. The Fed says 2% inflation is its target goal; Vanguard sees 3% inflation by the end of 2023.

    A recession is very much on the cards

    As “generationally high inflation” slowed economies across the world, the Fed and other central banks have countered with interest-rate increases to tame price increases. That “will ultimately succeed, but at a cost of a global recession in 2023,” according to Vanguard’s report. Vanguard sees a 90% chance of a recession in the United States by the end of next year.

    Vanguard is hardly alone in the recession call, so the question is how bad could the big picture look?

    In Vanguard’s view, it’s not so bad. “Households, businesses, and financial institutions are in a much better position to handle the eventual downturn, such that drawing parallels with the 1970s, 1980s, 2008, or 2020 seems misplaced,” the authors wrote.

    Job losses may be clustered

    For now, the jobless rate in a tight labor market is 3.7%, which is just a little above the lowest levels in five decades. That stands against the headline-grabbing list of companies where layoffs are mounting, notably in the tech sector.

    When a recession, in all likelihood, lands next year, “unemployment may peak around 5%, a historically low rate for a recession,” the Vanguard outlook said. As interest rates climb, the job losses “should be most concentrated in the technology and real estate sectors, which were among the strongest beneficiaries of the zero-rate environment.”

    The unemployment rate going from 3.7% to the 5% vicinity is “a sizable move,” Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Americas chief economist for Vanguard, said in a Monday press conference on the report. “But it is less dramatic of a rise than compared to past recessions perhaps.”

    Spotting the opportunities

    When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. So it’s been difficult for bonds with lower returns and “near-term pain” for investors this year, the Vanguard outlook said.

    “However the bright side of higher rates is higher interest payments. These have led our return expectations for U.S. and international bonds to increase by more than twofold,” the report said.

    Vanguard said U.S. bond return projections could be 4.1% – 5.1% annually over the next year versus its 1.4% – 2.4% return estimate last year. For U.S. stocks, the forecast could be 4.7% – 6.7% annually, while returns in emerging market equities could be between 7% and 9%.

    On Tuesday morning, stock markets are soaring higher on the cooler than expected inflation data, igniting hopes of an end of year Santa Claus rally.

    “‘There’s one silver lining of our outlook for a modest global recession. And it’s the clear silver lining of higher expected returns for investors.’”


    — Joseph Davis, Vanguard’s chief global economist

    Still, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.30%
    is down nearly 5% year to date. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.73%
    is off 14% in that time and for the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +0.38%
    is down more than 26%.

    When the market hits bottom is impossible to know, the outlook said — but it noted “valuations and yields are clearly more attractive than they were a year ago.”

    “There’s one silver lining of our outlook for a modest global recession. And it’s the clear silver lining of higher expected returns for investors,” said Joseph Davis, Vanguard’s chief global economist.

    “We’re long concerned that the low rate environment was both unsustainable and ultimately a tax and a headwind for savers and long term investors,” Davis said.

    But even with all the turbulence this year, “we certainly are starting to see the dividends to higher real interest rates around the world in the higher projected returns that we anticipate for investors over the coming decade.”

    Source link

  • Exclusive: San Francisco city attorney looking into loss of Twitter janitors’ jobs

    Exclusive: San Francisco city attorney looking into loss of Twitter janitors’ jobs

    San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu said Tuesday that he will look into the loss of Twitter janitors’ jobs, which appears to be in violation of San Francisco law.

    Members of the SEIU Local 87 went on strike Monday as their contract was set to expire Dec. 9. The contractor that employed them is set to be replaced by another contractor that Twitter would not disclose to the union, according to Olga Miranda, president of the union local. Twitter then moved up the janitors’ last day on the job to Monday, she said.

    According to San Francisco law, when a company changes contractors for security or janitorial services, the contractor is supposed to rehire workers for at least 90 days after the transition.

    When contacted by MarketWatch on Tuesday, Chiu said: “Elon Musk has a long history of flouting labor laws. While I’m not surprised this happened, I feel for those workers as well as all Twitter employees and contractors who have been laid off. We will be looking into this further.”

    Miranda said 48 janitors in total are affected, 30 of whom were waiting to go back to work because many Twitter employees had been working from home and not as many janitors were needed.

    San Francisco-based Twitter, whose communications team was reportedly almost entirely laid off at the beginning of November after Musk bought the company, has not returned a request for comment. Musk has cut about half of the company’s pre-acquisition workforce of 7,500 since he took over.

    Also Tuesday, Ted Goldberg, a senior editor at KQED, San Francisco’s public radio station, tweeted that the San Francisco Department of Building Inspection is launching an investigation into news reported by Forbes that Twitter has set up bedrooms for employees at its headquarters.

    “We need to make sure the building is being used as intended,” a representative of the department told KQED News.

    Source link

  • ‘Gaslighters have two signature moves’: Are you being gaslighted at work? Here’s how to recognize the signs.

    ‘Gaslighters have two signature moves’: Are you being gaslighted at work? Here’s how to recognize the signs.

    Are you less happy at work since you befriended that new recruit? Have they told you stories about how colleagues have constantly undermined them? Or do you have a boss who excludes you from key meetings — and then asks why you did not attend a meeting even though you are pretty sure you were not invited to begin with? If so, you may be working with a gaslighter.

    Gaslighters, as the name suggests, cast themselves in a positive light — friend or confidante who is here to help — but actually operate much more effectively in the shadows. Merriam-Webster named “gaslighting” the word of the year. Searches for the word on merriam-webster.com surged 1,740% in 2022 over the prior year year, despite there not being an event that the publisher — known for its dictionaries — could point to as a cause of the spike.

    It defines gaslighting as “psychological manipulation of a person usually over an extended period of time that causes the victim to question the validity of their own thoughts, perception of reality, or memories and typically leads to confusion, loss of confidence and self-esteem, uncertainty of one’s emotional or mental stability, and a dependency on the perpetrator.”

    Perhaps the reasons were more personal — or professional — than political. My social media feed is now full of thought pieces on how to spot one of these saboteurs. The comments sections read like the show notes of a True Crime podcast — gruesome yet hard to turn away from. 

    The term was coined in a 1938 play, “Gas Light,” a psychological thriller set in Victorian London and written by Patrick Hamilton.

    The term was further popularized after George Cukor’s 1944 film, “Gaslight,” based on the play, in which Gregory (Charles Boyer) tries to convince his wife Paula (Ingrid Bergman) that she has lost her reason. While he turns on the lights in the attic while searching for hidden jewels, the gaslight flickers in the rest of the house. He tells Paula that she is merely imagining the dimming of the lights.

    The workplace is fertile ground for such behavior, given what’s at stake: money, power, status, promotion, rivalry and the intrigue that often comes with office politics. 

    I’m in the business of helping people work out their conflicts at work. None of this surprises me. In fact, I dedicated a whole chapter in my book, “Jerks at Work,” to gaslighters. 

    “‘For gaslighters, slow and steady wins the race, and the best ones make friends with their victims first.’”

    What has surprised me is how wide-ranging the definition of “gaslighting” has become. Everything from “not respecting personal boundaries” to “talking so much shit about me I couldn’t get hired for two years” seems to fall under the umbrella. 

    What I’ve learned from my doom scrolling is that the word “gaslighter” — probably the worst name to bestow on a colleague or boss — seems to refer to anyone who’s done a whole bunch of bad things to us at work, especially things that involve humiliation. 

    So what really is a gaslighter, and why is it important to distinguish one from, say, a demeaning boss with a chip on their shoulder and a penchant for public shaming?

    If we stick to the clinical definition, gaslighters have two signature moves: They lie with the intent of creating a false reality, and they cut off their victims socially. 

    They position themselves as both savior and underminer, creating a negative and fearful atmosphere, spreading gossip and taking credit for other people’s work. They are often jealous and resentful, and aim to undercut others in order to further their own position.

    You may also be an unwitting pawn in the gaslighting of another colleague. The gaslighter might try to convince you that Johnny is trying to steal your leadership role on a project, and encourage you to freeze him out in the cafeteria at lunch time, or simply be extra wary about sharing important information.

    For gaslighters, slow and steady wins the race, and the best ones make friends with their victims first. For this reason, it could also be considered a form of workplace harassment.

    They often flatter them, make them feel special. Others create a fear of speaking up in their victims by making their position at work seem more precarious than it is. And the lies are complex, coming at you in layers. It takes a long time to realize your status as a victim of gaslighting, and social isolation is a necessary part of this process. 

    “‘It takes a long time to realize your status as a victim of gaslighting, and social isolation is a necessary part of this process.’”

    But there’s a difference between an annoying coworker or micromanaging boss, and a gaslighter, who lies and conspires to undermine your position. “The gaslighter doesn’t want you to improve or succeed — they’re out to sabotage you,” according to the careers website Monster.com. “They will accuse you of being confused or mistaken, or that you took something they said the wrong way because you are insecure. They might even manipulate paper trails to “prove” they are right.”

    Examples cited by Monster.com: “You know you turned in a project, but the gaslighter insists you never gave it to them. You can tell someone has been in your space, moving things around, or even on your computer, but you don’t have proof. You are the only one not included in a team email or meeting invite, or intentionally kept out of the loop. Then when you don’t respond or show up, you are reprimanded.”

    Knowing this, what can you do to prevent yourself from becoming a target? First, recognize that gaslighters don’t wear their strategy on their sleeve. Flattery, making you feel like you’re a part of a special club, or questioning your expertise are not things that raise gaslighting alarm bells. 

    Rather than looking out for mean behavior by a boss or coworker, look out for signs of social isolation. A boss who wants to cut you off from coworkers and other leaders should raise red flags, even if the reason is that “you’re better than them.” 

    Second, recognize that lie detection is a precarious — and from a scientific perspective, almost impossible — business. Don’t try to become a lie detector, instead take notes, so you can put your “gaslighter” on notice that you are wise to their tactics. You can also use the notes as evidence if you decide to later raise the situation with Human Resources. 

    Here are some ways to beat the gaslighter: Send emails with “a summary of today’s meeting” so you can document the origin of ideas and make sure they don’t steal credit from you. Furthermore, document things that happened in person, and share it with your would-be gaslighter. And speak up at meetings. Don’t allow yourself to be browbeaten into submission. 

    The more you document, the more difficult it will be to be victimized. But a word of warning: Don’t try to confront gaslighters — instead, go to your social network to build your reality back up. Trying to beat these folks at their own game is a losing strategy. But these small things, done early in a working relationship, can work wonders. 

    Tessa West is a New York University social psychology professor with a particular interest in workplace behavior, and author of “Jerks at Work: Toxic Coworkers and What to Do About Them.“

    Related stories:

    ‘We’re like rats in a cage’: Sick and tired of their jobs, American workers strive to regain their agency, their time — and their sanity‘

    People are seeking a genuine connection with their colleagues’ — one that goes beyond ‘Hollywood Squares’ Zoom meetings. Not all workers are happy with remote work.‘

    The backlash to quiet quitting smacks of another attempt by the ruling class to get workers back under their thumbs:’ Am I wrong?

    We want to hear from readers who have stories to share about the effects of increasing costs and a changing economy. If you’d like to share your experience, write to readerstories@marketwatch.com. Please include your name and the best way to reach you. A reporter may be in touch.

    Source link

  • This 82-year-old retiree makes makes moose calls

    This 82-year-old retiree makes makes moose calls

    Butch Phillips, an 82-year-old member of the Penobscot Nation, etches 18-inch long moose call horns from birch bark he harvests off tribal land. While some moose calls he gives away to local hunters, others have sold at auction for as much as $3,200 and some sit in museums.

    “It’s very exciting calling a moose. You can hear them coming. Snuffing and grunting,” said Phillips, who hunts a moose each year on tribal land, the largest being 940 pounds. He also sometimes calls moose just to watch them and study them.

    Based in Milford, Maine, Phillips has been making the moose calls, which are hornlike devices used to attract moose when hunting, for about 30 years with a wooden-handled knife his late wife bought him. He has more orders than he can keep up with, due in part to some local media coverage and word-of-mouth. He hopes to pass down his skills to his grown sons.

    Phillips retired 31 years ago from telecommunications jobs with NYMEX and AT&T
    T,
    -0.49%    ,
    and he’s been filling his time with his etching talents ever since.

    “I just can’t imagine being retired with nothing to do. I think I’d go crazy,” Phillips said.

    Plus, in the winter, etching gives him something productive to do to pass time.

    “There’s not a lot you can do outdoors. It gives me something to do rather than just sitting around. Can you imagine doing that for 31 years?” Phillips said.

    Phillips used to make moose calls by peeling a piece of bark off a tree and using it for the day and tossing it aside. Then he started tying spruce roots around the bark to help keep the shape and use it again and again. Hunters started asking for his moose calls and his work spread by word-of-mouth.

    Phillips in a 14-foot birch bark canoe that he built.


    Credit: Butch Phillips

    “Some hunters will use a roadside cone to call a moose. I wanted to do it the traditional way. A large majority of native hunters use a birch bark call,” Phillips said.

    He uses a variety of tools, but the knife given to him by his late wife is his most treasured tool.

    “The blade’s pretty much worn down. But I treasure it. It’s very special,” Phillips said.

    As he became more adept at making moose calls, Phillips started making more permanent models, refining the workmanship and using thicker bark that was suitable for etching.

    “I decided to do etching like they did in the old days. Everything they used to make, they carved. My artwork evolved. I try to keep the older designs alive. I’ve taken symbols like the Wabanaki symbol and incorporated them into the art to keep them alive. I use plants and trees as fillers,” Phillips said.

    “In most of my art work, I try to combine people, plants and animals. We always memorialize our ancestors. And plants and animals are what we owe gratitude to for keeping us alive,” Phillips said. “In our prayers, we always give thanks to ancestors, plants and animals. There’s a theme.”

    Phillips said he writes up explanations of the symbols so each buyer knows what the designs mean. Diamond shapes, for example, represent wigwams, he said. More often these days his buyers are collectors rather than moose hunters.

    Phillips is an expert in his materials.

    “All bark is not created equal. There’s curly bark, thick, thin, white, dark, gray. I use bark that is thick and pliable and doesn’t separate into layers,” Phillips said.

    With winter bark, it’s brown with a thick rind on the inside. He has to take it off the tree carefully and scrape away the rind to make designs. He can approach the etching in two ways – either scraping away the entire background and leaving just a thin image, or carve images onto rind. Summer bark has no rind and is just yellow.

    His museum-quality pieces have used winter bark with an elaborate scraping process that leaves thin details for designs. Those are the toughest to do, he said.

    Phillips approaches each moose call with an open mind and has no preconceived idea of what the designs will be. The bark just speaks to him.

    “I never plan on paper what it’s going to look like. Most of the time I have no idea until it evolves,” Phillips said.

    In the center of the device, he often puts an image of a moose or a moose head. For special orders, he might be asked to incorporate an image of a hawk or favorite dog or even a woodpecker, in one case. He adds touches like a flower, acorns or moose tracks to fill in blank areas.

    “Each side is balanced because nature is balanced,” Phillips said. “Every design is unique.”

    Source link

  • ‘A rail shutdown would devastate our economy’: Biden urges Congress to head off potential strike

    ‘A rail shutdown would devastate our economy’: Biden urges Congress to head off potential strike

    OMAHA, Neb. — President Joe Biden on Monday asked Congress to intervene and block a railroad strike before next month’s deadline in the stalled contract talks, following pressure by business groups on the stalled negotiations.

    “Let me be clear: a rail shutdown would devastate our economy,” Biden said in a statement. “Without freight rail, many U.S. industries would shut down.”

    Congress has the power to impose contract terms on the workers, but it’s not clear what lawmakers might include if they do. They could also force the negotiations to continue into the new year.

    Both the unions and railroads have been lobbying Congress while contract talks continue. Four rail unions that represent more than half of the 115,000 workers in the industry have rejected the deals that Biden helped broker before the original strike deadline in September and are back at the table trying to work out new agreements. Eight other unions have approved their five-year deals with the railroads and are in the process of getting back pay for their workers for the 24% raises that are retroactive to 2020.

    Biden said that as a “a proud pro-labor president” he was reluctant to override the views of people who voted against the agreement. “But in this case — where the economic impact of a shutdown would hurt millions of other working people and families — I believe Congress must use its powers to adopt this deal.”

    Biden’s remarks came after a coalition of more than 400 business groups sent a letter to congressional leaders Monday urging them to step into the stalled talks because of fears about the devastating potential impact of a strike that could force many businesses to shut down if they can’t get the rail deliveries they need. Commuter railroads and Amtrak would also be affected in a strike because many of them use tracks owned by the freight railroads.

    The business groups led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers and National Retail Federation said even a short-term strike would have a tremendous impact and the economic pain would start to be felt even before the Dec. 9 strike deadline. They said the railroads would stop hauling hazardous chemicals, fertilizers and perishable goods up to a week beforehand to keep those products from being stranded somewhere along the tracks.

    “A potential rail strike only adds to the headwinds facing the U.S. economy,” the businesses wrote. “A rail stoppage would immediately lead to supply shortages and higher prices. The cessation of Amtrak and commuter rail services would disrupt up to 7 million travelers a day. Many businesses would see their sales disrupted right in the middle of the critical holiday shopping season.”

    A similar group of businesses sent another letter to Biden last month urging him to play a more active role in resolving the contract dispute.

    On Monday, the Association of American Railroads trade group praised Biden’s action.

    “No one benefits from a rail work stoppage — not our customers, not rail employees and not the American economy,” said AAR President and CEO Ian Jefferies. “Now is the appropriate time for Congress to pass legislation to implement the agreements already ratified by eight of the twelve unions.”

    Congressional leaders and the White House have said they are monitoring the contract talks closely but haven’t indicated when they might act or what they will do. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said leaders are aware of the situation with the rail negotiations and will monitor the talks in the coming days.

    Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., said on “Fox News Sunday” that congressional intervention is a last resort but that lawmakers will have to be ready to act.

    “Congress will not let this strike happen. That’s for sure,” said Fitzpatrick, who helps lead a bipartisan group of 58 lawmakers. “It would be devastating to our economy. So, we’ll get to a resolution one way or another.”

    “It certainly could end up in Congress’ lap, which is why we are headed to D.C. this week to meet with lawmakers on the Hill from both parties,” said Clark Ballew, a spokesman for the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division, which represents track maintenance workers. “We have instructed our members to contact their federal lawmakers in the House and Senate for several weeks now.”

    The unions have asked the railroads to consider adding paid sick time to what they already offered to address some of workers’ quality of life concerns. But so far, the railroads, which include Union Pacific
    UNP,
    -2.25%    ,
    Berkshire Hathaway’s
    BRK.B,
    -1.31%
    BNSF, Norfolk Southern
    NSC,
    -1.49%    ,
    CSX
    CSX,
    -1.00%
    and Canadian Pacific’s
    CP,
    -1.26%
    Kansas City Southern, have refused to consider that.

    The railroads want any deal to closely follow the recommendations a special board of arbitrators that Biden appointed made this summer that called for the 24% raises and $5,000 in bonuses but didn’t resolve workers’ concerns about demanding schedules that make it hard to take a day off and other working conditions.

    Source link

  • ‘There are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon’: 5 things not to buy on Black Friday

    ‘There are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon’: 5 things not to buy on Black Friday

    It’s a year for shopping prudently.

    Americans will spend between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion this holiday season, according to projections from the National Retail Federation. That’s up from last year when holiday sales hit a record $889.3 billion, the trade association said.

    However, people are not willing to go as crazy this Black Friday compared to previous years: that 6% to 8% year-over-year growth expectation is slower than the 13.5% annual increase in holiday season spending in 2021 when consumers had pandemic-era government benefits to spend.

    Once again, millions of people will also be shopping from the comfort of their home and avoiding the Black Friday crowds. Online and other non-store sales are predicted to rise 10% to 12% (to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion).

    “People have reason to be concerned about their spending. ”

    “The economy is probably doing better than it feels right now, but that’s not true for everyone of course,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com. “There are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon.” He cited rising interest rates, 40-year high inflation and tech layoffs. 

    People have reason to be concerned about their spending. The personal saving rate — meaning personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, or the share of income left after paying taxes and spending money — fell to 3.3% in the third quarter from 3.4% in the prior quarter, the government said last month. 

    Despite a strong labor market and unemployment hovering at 3.7% in October, Rossman said, “it still seems like a recession is likely in 2023, although the best guess is that it will be a mild one.”

    So what should you not buy this Black Friday? Quite a lot, if you don’t believe in living large. Here are 5 things to think about avoiding:

    — Quentin Fottrell

    Tech accessories

    For tech accessories — like earbuds and headphones — waiting until December may be a better way to score better deals, added Ryan McGonagill, director, industry research at Savings.com, another site that aggregates discounts.

    The most popular electronic products like Apple AAPL iPads, MacBooks and iPhones have scant Black Friday deals. “For a limited time, get an Apple Gift Card to use on a later purchase when you buy an eligible iPhone, Apple Watch, Mac, AirPods, and more,” according to Apple’s Black Friday offer.

    Computer makers and retailers, however, are coming off the work-from-home boom and may have inventory they need to thin before year’s end. Holiday discounts on computers, at least through October, were at 10% off the base price, according to analysis from Adobe
    ADBE,
    +2.92%    .
     

    The software and analytics provider said computer discounts could go much steeper, up to 32% off the base price before the end of the year. Cyber Monday could be the best day for bargains on computers, Adobe said, but computer deals may stick around for the rest of 2022.

    Pay attention to early deals, if you desperately need a new laptop. “Many retailers offer the same pricing on Black Friday and Cyber Monday,” said Kristin McGrath, editor at RetailMeNot.com, a site that promotes deals. “So start looking on Black Friday and use Cyber Monday as a second chance to snag what you missed.”

    — Andrew Keshner

    Seasonal items

    Winter wear is usually not going to be on sale before Christmas, so it’s best to shop for your puffy jackets and snow boots in the New Year, if you can. The same goes for white linen, tools and holiday decorations, said Charles Lindsey, associate professor in the Marketing School of Management at the University at Buffalo.

    Most stores put their coats, hats, scarves and flannel pajamas on sale — with discounts on big-name brands of 50% or more in January — to make room for their spring collections. Similarly, buy summer clothes in the fall and winter. 

    “The best time to buy holiday decor is immediately after said holidays,” according to DealNews, a site offering shopping advice. “After Christmas sales are generally your best bet for snagging deeply discounted ornaments, lights, and inflatables in order to be well prepared for next year.” 

    Fashion-conscious shoppers inclined to snap up discounted items may want to practice patience on Black Friday. Apparel may have even deeper discounts after the holidays. If you feel compelled to buy something new to wear to the office party, invest in quality pieces. Fast fashion has a cost: It has contributed to a waste crisis, in part because such items are not meant to last very long in your closet.

    But that does not mean you should not keep your eyes peeled for some seasonal goods on Black Friday. Walmart
    WMT,
    +0.34%    ,
    for instance, is pushing out the boat early with some discounts on toys, including hoverboards, bicycles, remote-control cars, and karaoke machines. Similarly, Kohl’s
    KSS,
    +4.17%
    has discounts on a range of doll’s houses.

    — Quentin Fottrell and Emma Ockerman

    Appliances and white goods

    There might be tempting Black Friday deals on appliances, mattresses and furniture. Discounts on appliances may reach up to an 18% from the base price, Adobe said. Still, “you’re going to get another shot at them during New Year’s Eve sales and again during Presidents Day sales in February,” McGrath said.

    If Black Friday is “too chaotic …you’ll have plenty of opportunities to save,” she added. Department stores usually run very attractive discounts on houseware in the days following Christmas. “Stores know they’ll be getting a lot of traffic with so many people returning gifts — and hope to convince shoppers to make an impulse self-gifting purchase or two,” McGrath said.

    If you can’t wait, Costco
    COST,
    +1.64%
    is already rolling out deals on white goods and appliances, including $70 off a Sonos
    SONO,
    +1.87%
    WiFi speaker. However, Consumer Reports cautions consumers against falling for big deals without checking out the reliability of the brand first, as you could end up paying more in repairs down the road. 

    You might be tempted by offers and rebates on matching kitchen suites — typically a refrigerator, range, dishwasher, and microwave — from the same maker,” Consumer Reports said. “But price is only part of the equation when you’re purchasing appliances. Reliability is key, and it can vary within a brand’s offerings.”

    — Andrew Keshner

    Fitness equipment

    One of the best times to buy exercise equipment is around the New Year, when people are making resolutions to improve their health, said Regina Conway, who researches sales and promotions for Slickdeals, a site that tracks retail discounts.

    When you make your purchase, think twice before buying equipment that runs on proprietary technology, like Peloton
    PTON,
    -1.13%
    or Lululemon’s
    LULU,
    +1.79%
    Mirror exercise products, mainly because the at-home fitness boom faces an uncertain future post-pandemic, Conway noted.

    However, this Black Friday is a little different than previous years, and there are some deals in categories that traditionally don’t have good Black Friday discounts, including exercise equipment. “This year we’re seeing strong Black Friday deals from industry stalwarts like NordicTrack,” Conway said.

    Peloton Interactive, which is facing a challenging time since people are no longer stuck at home due to the pandemic, is currently offering $600 off this fitness bike package. However, consumers will still have to fork over $2,195 for the machine and exercise regime.

    “We think consumers are likely to continue to prefer out-of-home experiences in the near-term and believe Peloton is still working through pandemic pull-forward,” Cowen & Co. analyst John Blackledge wrote in an analyst note on Tuesday, citing “limited visibility” on Peloton’s fiscal 2023 performance.

    — Leslie Albrecht and Quentin Fottrell

    Big-ticket items like TVs 

    Does Amazon
    AMZN,
    +0.80%
    founder Jeff Bezos have a point about the dangers of splurging this year? In something of a Black Friday surprise, Bezos offered some shocking spending tips as Americans gear up for the holiday shopping season — amid four-decade-high inflation. Or, to be more accurate, he offered tips on what not to spend your money on.

    ‘If you’re an individual and you’re thinking about buying a large-screen TV, maybe slow that down, keep that cash, see what happens. Same thing with a refrigerator, a new car, whatever. Just take some risk off the table,” Bezos said in a recent interview on CNN
    WBD,
    +2.27%    .
    The remarks drew a significant amount of scorn on social media, with some critics advising people to avoid shopping on Amazon too.

    About those TVs: “They’re normally not going to be a high-end TV brand,” Lindsey said. “It will be a lower to mid-tier brand. Companies utilize these TVS as doorbusters to get people in the store and people clicking on their website. You’re probably better off shopping around the Superbowl in late January.”

    Rossman said consumers are becoming more judicious about their Black Friday splurging. “People seem to be pulling back on some big-ticket purchases,” he told MarketWatch. “For example, sellers of appliances, electronics and furniture all posted disappointing results in the most recent retail sales report.”

    “Yet discretionary sectors such as travel and dining are seeing sharp increases in spending,” he added. “I think the main explanation is pent-up demand. People are prioritizing experiences over things right now, largely due to the pandemic. There was also a pull-forward in demand for many physical goods the past couple of years as many out-of-home activities were curtailed.”

    — Quentin Fottrell

    Source link

  • Amazon CEO says more layoffs are coming in 2023

    Amazon CEO says more layoffs are coming in 2023

    Amazon.com Inc. plans more layoffs, but employees will have to wait until 2023 to see if their jobs are affected.

    Chief Executive Andy Jassy said Thursday that while Amazon
    AMZN,
    -2.34%
    already confirmed that it was eliminating jobs in its devices and books businesses, an unknown number of layoffs impacting other teams are still to follow.

    See more: Amazon confirms layoffs, becoming latest tech powerhouse to slash roles

    “Our annual planning process extends into the new year, which means there will be more role reductions as leaders continue to make adjustments,” he said in a blog post on the company’s corporate site. “Those decisions will be shared with impacted employees and organizations early in 2023.”

    While Jassy doesn’t know “exactly how many other roles will be impacted,” he does know “that there will be reductions in our Stores and PXT organizations.” The company already announced a “voluntary reduction offer for some employees” working in PXT, or People Experience and Technology Solutions.

    The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that Amazon could end up slashing 10,000 jobs.

    Jassy took over as Amazon’s CEO in July 2021 and said Thursday that “without a doubt,” the move to cut staff is “the most difficult decision we’ve made” since he’s been in the role.

    “It’s not lost on me or any of the leaders who make these decisions that these aren’t just roles we’re eliminating, but rather, people with emotions, ambitions and responsibilities whose lives will be impacted,” Jassy said.

    He added that Amazon “has weathered uncertainty and difficult economies in the past, and we will continue to do so.” Jassy emphasized that Amazon will continue to plug away on more established areas like stores, advertising and cloud computing, as well as newer initiatives like Prime Video, the Alexa voice assistant and healthcare.

    Amazon joins other technology companies including Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    -1.57%    ,
    Snap Inc.
    SNAP,
    -1.36%    ,
    Shopify Inc.
    SHOP,
    -2.05%
    and Twitter in recently eliminating jobs. An activist investor earlier this week urged Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    -0.49%

    GOOGL,
    -0.50%
    to cut positions as well.

    See more: Here are the companies in the layoffs spotlight

    Shares of Amazon were up 0.3% in after-hours trading Thursday after declining 2.3% in the regular session.

    Source link

  • Black Friday surprise: Jeff Bezos tells people NOT to buy cars, refrigerators and other big-ticket items. Critics call him out.

    Black Friday surprise: Jeff Bezos tells people NOT to buy cars, refrigerators and other big-ticket items. Critics call him out.

    Billionaire Jeff Bezos, who founded the e-retail behemoth Amazon, has some spending tips as Americans gear up for a holiday shopping season — amid four-decade high inflation and recession worries.

    Here’s what he said:

    “‘If you’re an individual and you’re thinking about buying a large-screen TV, maybe slow that down, keep that cash, see what happens. Same thing with a refrigerator, a new car, whatever. Just take some risk off the table.’”

    Bezos made the comments in a CNN
    WBD,
    +0.46%
    interview that aired this week, the same interview where he pledged to give away most of his fortune in his lifetime.

    Why did Bezos offer the tip for consumers and small business to go easy on big-ticket items? He gave one big reason.

    “If we’re not in a recession right now, we’re likely to be in one very soon,” he said in the interview, picking up on his cautionary tweet last month that “the probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches.”

    Bezos is currently executive chair at Amazon
    AMZN,
    -2.34%    ,
    transitioning to the role last year as Andy Jassy took the reins as CEO.

    Later this week, Amazon confirmed it was laying off some of its staff in its device and services business — joining a growing list of tech companies, including Facebook parent Meta
    META,
    -1.57%
    — that is laying people off. Amazon’s job cuts could number around 10,000, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    “Critics have taken aim at these words of thrift coming from a man — now worth approximately $120 billion — who built Amazon into the online shopping bonanza.”

    To be sure, Bezos is not alone is his worries about a potential recession as the Federal Reserve and other central banks fight higher costs by hiking interest rates.

    But his advice prompted some guffaws on social media. In a nutshell, critics say these are words of thrift coming from a man — now worth approximately $120 billion — who built Amazon into the online shopping bonanza that lets consumers seamlessly spend money.

    As Joshua Becker, a proponent of minimalism wrote on Twitter: “I didn’t hear him mention refraining from Amazon’s Prime Day deals or Black Friday offers, but I recommend adding those items to your list as well.”

    Regardless of how anyone feels about hearing spending advice, particularly from one of the world’s richest people, there are some things to consider as events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday approach.

    For one thing, maybe there are discretionary expenses where people can cut back. Many Americans are still spending briskly, as Walmart
    WMT,
    -0.34%
    third-quarter earnings and October’s retail-sales numbers recently affirmed. Holiday-spending projections paint the same picture.

    Americans will spend between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion on holiday-season sales this year, according to projections from the National Retail Federation. Last year’s holiday sales totaled $889.3 billion, the trade association said.

    “During the third quarter, Americans’ credit-card balances climbed to $930 billion, the biggest annual increase in more than 20 years, according to the National Retail Federation.”

    But Americans are planning for the holidays while credit-card balances are increasing — likely because credit cards are helping them keep up with rising costs.

    During the third quarter, Americans’ credit-card balances climbed to $930 billion, the biggest annual increase in more than 20 years, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data.

    While balances grow, so do credit-card interest rates. The annual percentage rate (APR) on new credit-card offers averaged 19.14% in mid-November, according to Bankrate.com. That beats the old record on APRs for new cards, set at 19% three decades ago.

    The holiday shopping season is typically when Americans accumulate credit-card debt, pay the debts in the early part of the coming year and repeat the holiday-season debt the following year.

    This year, the stakes could be higher if high credit-card bills arrive and a recession-induced job loss follows.

    “It’s not the time to overspend and have a problem with paying your bills later,” Michele Raneri, vice president of financial services research and consulting at TransUnion
    TRU,
    -4.94%    ,
    one of the country’s three major credit bureaus, previously told MarketWatch. “We know the economy is sending mixed messages.”

    Source link

  • Cisco’s stock rises on strong quarterly sales and guidance, but a restructuring is coming

    Cisco’s stock rises on strong quarterly sales and guidance, but a restructuring is coming

    Cisco Systems Inc.’s stock rose in extended trading Wednesday after the networking-technology company delivered better-than-expected numbers on the top and bottom line, and offered encouraging guidance.

    Still, Cisco Chief Financial Officer Scott Herren announced a “limited business restructuring,” to be shared with employees on Thursday, that will right-size its real-estate portfolio and impact about 5% of its 80,000 workers worldwide — or 4,000 people. “This is about rebalancing across the board,” he said, adding that as many jobs will be added as reduced.

    “Our goal is to minimize the number of people who end up having to leave,” Herren told MarketWatch. “We will match as many with new roles at the company as we can. This is not about reducing our workforce — in fact we’ll have roughly the same number of employees at the end of this fiscal year as we had when we started.”

    Cisco
    CSCO,
    -1.14%
    reported a fiscal first-quarter net income of $2.7 billion, or 65 cents a share, compared with net income of $3 billion, or 70 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted earnings were 86 cents a share. Revenue was $13.6 billion, up 6% from $12.9 billion a year ago.

    Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected on average net income of 84 cents a share on revenue of $13.3 billion. Shares gained 4% in after-hours trading following the results, after closing down 1% in regular trading Wednesday at $44.39.

    “Our fiscal 2023 is off to a good start as we delivered the largest quarterly revenue and second-highest quarterly non-GAAP earnings per share in our history,” Cisco Chief Executive Chuck Robbins said in a statement announcing the results. During a conference call with analysts late Wednesday, Robbins noted “modest improvement” in component delivery amid an easing supply-chain pipeline.

    Cisco’s Product ($10.25 billion) and Service ($3.39 billion) businesses were up slightly year over year. Secure, Agile Networks, the company’s top business segment including data-center networking switches, hauled in $6.68 billion, up 12% from a year ago.

    Herren recognized buying caution in Europe driven by a dramatic increase in energy costs and market volatility. The company has also shut down operations in Russia.

    For the fiscal second quarter, Cisco executives guided for 84 cents to 86 cents a share in adjusted profit and revenue growth of 4.5% to 6.5%. Analysts were forecasting adjusted earnings of 85 cents and revenue of $13.24 billion, according to FactSet.

    Shares of Cisco Systems have dwindled 30% this year, while the broader S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.83%
    has tailed off 17%.

    In the days leading up to Cisco’s report, financial analysts had expected results and guidance in line with their modest expectations but warned of lingering supply-chain woes.

    “We model 15-20% declines in orders [year-over-year] due to tough compares a year ago and stronger seasonality last quarter, but backlog should protect revenues for now,” Barclays analyst Tim Long said in a note to investors on Tuesday.

    Source link

  • Investors may be whistling past the graveyard of a recession with latest rally in stocks

    Investors may be whistling past the graveyard of a recession with latest rally in stocks

    Investors feeling giddy about last week’s sharp rally for stocks might want to give a listen to Tom Waits’ song, “Whistlin’ Past the Graveyard” from 1978, to sober up for the dangers that still lurk ahead.

    The surge in stocks catapulted the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.92%
    almost back to the 4,000 mark on Friday, also lifting it to the biggest weekly gain in roughly five months, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Investors showed courage on signs of a slight slowing of inflation, but the fortitude also comes as a drearier backdrop for investors has been unfolding in plain sight. Massive layoffs at big technology companies, the dramatic implosion of crypto-exchange FTX, and the day-to-day pain of high inflation and skyrocketing borrowing on businesses and households are all taking a toll.

    “We are not convinced this is the beginning of a new bull market,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CRFA Research. “We believe that we are headed for recession. That has not been factored into earnings estimates and, therefore, share prices.”

    Stovall also said the stock market has yet to see the “traditional shakeout of confidence capitulation that we typically see that marks the end of the bear markets.”

    From Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.03%
    to Lyft Inc.
    LYFT,
    +12.59%
    to Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    +5.51%
    there is a wave of major technology companies resorting to layoffs this fall, a threat that could sweep other sectors of the economy if a recession materializes.

    Yet, information technology stocks in the S&P 500 jumped 10% for the week, while financials, which stand to benefit from higher interest rates, rose 5.7%, according to FactSet.

    That could reflect optimism about the odds of a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes in the months ahead, after sharp rate rises helped to undermine valuations and pull tech stocks dramatically lower in the past year. However, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, and other Fed officials since the October inflation reading on Thursday have reiterated the need to keep rates high, until 7.7% annual rate finds a clearer path to the central bank’s 2% target.

    The stock-market rally also might suggest that investors view continued mayhem in the crypto sector as contained, despite bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +0.42%
    trading near its lowest level in two years and the shocking collapse in recent days of FTX, once the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency exchange.

    Read: FTX’s fall: ‘This is the worst’ moment for crypto this year. Here’s what you should know.

    What happens to stocks in recessions

    Blows to the American economy rarely have been good for stocks. A look at seven past recessions, starting in 1969, shows declines for the S&P 500 as more typical than gains, with its most violent drop occurring in the 2007-2009 recession.

    The more than 37% drop of the S&P 500 from 2007 to 2009 was the worst of its kind in a recession since the late 1960s.


    Refinitiv data, London Stock Exchange Group

    While a looming U.S. recession isn’t a foregone conclusion, CEOs of America’s biggest banks have been warning about the risks for months. JP Morgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon said in October that a “tough recession” could drag the S&P 500 down another 20%, even though he also said consumers were doing fine, for now.

    Still, the steady stream of warnings about the recession odds have left many Americans confused and wondering if one can even happen without an increase in job losses.

    Big moves lately in stocks also have been hard to decode, given the economy was shocked back to life in the pandemic by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus and easy-money policies from the Fed that are now being reversed.

    “What I think goes unnoticed, certainly by the average person, is that these moves are not normal,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, about stock swings this week.

    “It’s all about who is positioned how — and for what — and how much leverage they’re employing,” Martin told MarketWatch. “You get these outsized moves when people are offside.”

    Here’s a view of the sharp trajectory upward of the S&P 500 since 2010, but also its dramatic drop this year.

    Sharp rise of S&P 500 since 2010, but recent fall


    Refinitiv Datastream

    While Martin isn’t ruling out the potential for a seasonal “Santa Claus” rally heading into year-end, he worries about a potential leg lower for stocks next year, particularly with the Fed likely to keep interest rates high.

    “Certainly what’s being priced in now is either no recession or a very, very mild recession,” he said .

    However, Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist, said the overarching story might be one of stocks sniffing out the first steps in a path to economic recovery, and the Fed potentially stopping its rate hikes at a lower “terminal” rate than expected.

    The Fed increased its benchmark interest rate to a 3.75% to 4% range in November, the highest in 15 years, but also has signaled it could top out near 4.5% to 4.75%.

    “If often happens that you can see stocks do well, in a less-than-good economic environment,” she said.

    The S&P 500 rose 4.2% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.10%
    gained 5.9%, posting its best weekly gain since late June, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Nasdaq Composite Index shot up 8.1% for the week, its best weekly stretch in seven months.

    In U.S. economic data, investors will get an update on household debt on Tuesday, retail sales and homebuilder data on Wednesday, followed by jobless claims and housing starts data Thursday. Friday brings existing home sales.

    Source link

  • How the Federal Reserve’s rate hike impacts your holiday spending plans: ‘It’s not the time to overspend’

    How the Federal Reserve’s rate hike impacts your holiday spending plans: ‘It’s not the time to overspend’

    It is three weeks before Black Friday, but the Federal Reserve is about to make the post-holiday debt hangover a little more intense.

    By the time the latest rate hikes filter through the very rate-sensitive credit card industry and pump up customers’ annual percentage rates a little more, experts say it will be some point in December 2022 or January 2023. Right in time for many holiday gifts and expenses to post on credit cards bills — and there to make the costs of a carried balance a little extra expensive.

    Every year, many people accumulate credit card debt through the holiday season, pay it off in the early part of the following year and then repeat the process.

    What’s different now is the presence of four-decade high inflation, coupled with fast-rising interest rates that the Fed hopes will ultimately cool those rising prices, although without sending the economy to a recessionary thud.

    Wednesday’s rate move is the fourth straight 75-basis-point rate hike to the federal funds rate, taking it to the 3.75% -4% range, when it was near zero last year’s holiday season. By now, Americans are all too acquainted with 2022’s fast-rising interest rates. They just haven’t gone through a Christmas and Hanakkuh with it yet.

    “It’s not the time to overspend and have a problem with paying your bills later. We know the economy is sending mixed messages,” said Michele Raneri, vice president of financial services research and consulting at TransUnion
    TRU,
    -4.31%    ,
    one of the country’s three major credit reporting companies.

    It’s extra important to think through a holiday budget and how much relies on credit, she said. “People need to think about how much they can afford to repay and how long it will take to repay it.”

    Holiday spending could be the same as 2021 for many people — but not everyone

    Last month, third-quarter earnings from major banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co.
    JPM,
    -0.92%    ,
    Wells Fargo
    WFC,
    -0.15%    ,
    Citibank
    C,
    -1.45%
    and Bank of America
    BAC,
    -0.30%
    indicated consumer finances, on the whole, are not yet showing cracks under inflation’s strains. (Other numbers show the strain, like the personal savings rate that’s been dwindling.)

    Now, two forecasts suggest many people ready to spend the same amount for this year’s holiday cheer as they did last year.

    People are planning to spend an average $1,430 on gifts, travel and entertainment this year, which is around the $1,447 spent last year, according to PwC researchers. Three-quarters of people said they were planning to spend the same or more than last year and respondents said credit cards were one of their top ways to pay.

    “ Compared to last year, credit card balances are getting bigger, more people are sitting on balances and debt costs are getting pricier.”

    By another measure, Americans will pay an average $1,455 on holiday-related gifts and experiences, essentially flat from last year, say Deloitte researchers.

    More than one-third of surveyed consumers say their financial outlook is worse than the same point last year. Nearly one-quarter of people were concerned about credit card debt as of late September, Deloitte’s numbers show in an ongoing tracking of consumer mood.

    It’s understandable to see the concern with households amassing a collective $890 billion in credit card debt through the second quarter. Compared to last year, balances are getting bigger, more people are sitting on balances and debt costs are getting pricier because the interest rates applied to those balances are rising.

    When people were carrying a credit card balance month to month, the sum was $5,474 on average, according to Raneri. That’s through the end of September and it’s a nearly 13% rise year over year, she said. The 164 million people carrying a balance is a 5% increase from last year, she noted.

    Credit cards carrying a balance during the third quarter had an average 18.43% APR, Federal Reserve data shows. That’s up from 16.65% in the second quarter and up from 17.13% in 2021’s third quarter.

    How the Fed influences credit card rates

    Credit card issuers typically determine their rates by applying a “prime rate” — typically three percentage points on top of the federal funds rate — and the issuer’s profit margin, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com.

    By late October, the rate on new card offers was 18.73%, according to Bankrate data. At this point last year, it was 16.31%, Rossman said. In a few weeks, the rates on new offers should beat the all-time record of an average 19% APR, exclusive to new offers, he added.

    While it can take a billing cycle or two for a higher APR to make its way to an existing credit card account, Rossman noted the APRs on new offers could rise in a matter of days.

    Here’s a hypothetical to show how much more expensive credit card debt becomes with every extra hike. Suppose the $5,474 balance is on a credit card with the current 18.73% average. If a person has to resort to minimum payments, Rossman said, they’d be paying $7,118 just in interest to pay off the debt.

    “ In a few weeks, the rates on new credit card offers should beat the all-time record of an average 19% APR.”

    What if the 18.73% APR gets kicked up 75 basis points to 19.48%? If that same borrower has to pay minimums, they are now paying $7,417 in interest to snuff the principal debt of $5,474, Rossman said.

    The example has its limits because people may pay more than the minimum and they may incur more credit card debt as they pay off the old one. But it shows a bigger point: “Unfortunately, anybody dealing with credit card debt is a loser from the series of rate hikes. It was already expensive. It’s getting more so,” Rossman said.

    When do rate hikes stop?

    While decisions during the Fed’s November meeting can have a ripple effect on holiday-time borrowing costs, observers say the real question about Wednesday is the clues Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell drops for what’s next. The central bank’s committee voting on interest rate increases reconvenes in mid-December.

    On Wednesday, the Fed said in a statement it expected further rate increases, but also said it would be watching to see if there were lag effects with its tightening policies, which could slow or limit the total amount of increases.

    “People, when they hear lags, they think about a pause. It’s very premature, in my view, to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have a ways to  go,” Powell told reporters at a Wednesday afternoon press conference.

    The economy is strong enough to handle higher rates, Powell said. For one thing, households have “strong balance sheets” and “strong spending power,” he noted.

    Stock markets first jumped higher after the latest interest rate announcement. But they gave up the gains — and then some — by the end of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.55%
    was down more than 500 points, or 1.6% while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -2.50%
    was down 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -3.36%
    closed 3.4% lower.

    Top economists in major North American-based banks forecasted the Fed will keep raising interest rates “until the first quarter of next year before potentially lowering rates through the end of 2023,” Sayee Srinivasan, chief economist at the American Bankers Association, the banking sector’s trade association, said ahead of Wednesday’s latest rate hike.

    “Top economists polled as part of a banking industry panel expect Fed rate increases through at least the first quarter of 2023.”

    The forecast, coming through an ABA advisory committee, is no sure thing. “Everything depends on the ability of the Fed to bring inflation down, so that will remain their clear priority,” said Srinivasan.

    Meanwhile, rising costs may cause more people to put the holiday cheer on plastic, even their decorations. The majority of Christmas tree growers in one poll are expecting wholesale prices to climb 5% to 15% for this season.

    Source link

  • IRS releases new federal tax brackets and standard deductions. Here’s how they affect your family’s tax bill.

    IRS releases new federal tax brackets and standard deductions. Here’s how they affect your family’s tax bill.

    America’s high inflation rate will produce a 7% increase in the size of the standard deduction when workers file their taxes on their 2023 income, according to new inflation adjustments from the Internal Revenue Service.

    It’s also going to pump up tax brackets by 7% as well, according to the annual inflation adjustments the IRS announced this week.

    Many tax code provisions — but not all — are indexed for inflation, so the announcements are a recurring event. But when inflation is persistently clinging to four-decade highs, these annual adjustments carry extra significance.

    “When inflation is persistently clinging to four-decade highs, these annual adjustments of approximately 7% for the standard deduction carry extra significance.”

    Start with the standard deduction, which is what most people use instead of itemizing deductions.

    The standard deduction for individuals and married people filing separately will be $13,850 for the 2023 tax year. That’s a $900 increase from the $12,950 standard deduction for the upcoming tax season.

    For married couples filing jointly, the payout climbs to $27,700 for the 2023 tax year. That’s a $1,800 increase from the $25,900 standard deduction set for the upcoming tax year.

    The increases in the marginal tax rates reflect the same 7% rise. For example, the 22% tax bracket for this year is over $41,775 for single filers and over $83,550 for married couples filing jointly. Next year, the same 22% bracket applies to incomes over $44,725 and over $89,450 for married couples filing jointly.

    MarketWatch/IRS

    “The changes seem to be much larger than previous years because inflation is running much higher than it has in previous decades,” said Alex Durante, economist at the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning tax think tank.

    The IRS arrives at its inflation adjustments by averaging a slightly different inflation gauge, the so-called “chained Consumer Price Index” instead of the widely-watched Consumer Price Index, Durante noted. That’s an outcome of the Trump-era Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, he added.

    “The reason they do this is because the regular CPI is thought to overstate inflation because it doesn’t take into account the substitution that shoppers can make as cost rise,” Durante said. Shoppers substitute when they swap a more expensive item for cheaper one, and research shows many Americans are using the tactic.

    The IRS inflation adjustments come after September CPI data last week showed inflation of 8.2% year-over-year, slightly off from 8.3% in August. Also last week, the Social Security Administration said next year’s payments would include an 8.7% cost of living adjustment.

    “The payout on the earned income tax credit — geared at low- and moderate-income working families who have been hit hard by red-hot inflation — is also increasing. ”

    The payout on the earned income tax credit is also increasing. The maximum payout for a qualifying taxpayer with at least three qualifying children climbs to $7,430, up from $6,935 for this tax year. The longstanding credit is geared at low- and moderate-income working families who have been hit hard by red-hot inflation.

    More than 60 provisions are slated for an increase inline with inflation, but many portions of the tax code are not indexed for inflation. Depending on the circumstances, the taxes or the tax breaks kick in sooner.

    Capital gains tax rules one example. The IRS lets a taxpayer use capital losses to offset capital gains taxes. If losses exceed gains, the IRS allows a taxpayer to deduct up to $3,000 in excess loses. They can then carry the remainder of the capital loses to future tax years. It’s been more than four decades since lawmakers last set the limit, according to Durante.

    “While more than 60 provisions are slated for an increase inline with inflation, many portions of the tax code are not indexed for inflation. They include capital gains tax. ”

    Given the stock market’s rocky downward slide this year, many investors might welcome a fast-approaching tax break — even if it only enables a $3,000 deduction.

    At the same time, a married couple selling their home can exclude the first $500,000 of the sale from capital gains taxation, and it’s $250,000 for a single filer. It’s been that way since the exclusion’s 1997 establishment.

    The once white-hot housing market may be cooling, but many sellers may still be facing the point when taxes kick in. The median home listing was over $367,000 as of early October, according to Redfin
    RDFN,
    +2.29%    .

    The child tax credit is another example. After the payout to parents last year jumped to $3,600 for children under age 6 and $3,000 per child age 6 to 17, it’s back to a maximum $2,000. The credit’s refundable portion climbs from $1,500 to $1,600 during tax year 2023, the IRS notes.

    Proponents of the boosted payouts and some Congressional Democrats want to revive the larger payments in negotiations tied to corporate taxes. The high costs of living are a strong reason to bring back the boosted credit, they say.

    Related:

    What smart strategies can lower your tax bill as year-end approaches? Read this before making any tax moves.

    Three things the best 401(k)s offer that can help you save a lot more

    Enhanced child tax credit helped reduce poverty for families before it ended last year. But there’s one way Republicans and Democrats could agree on reinstating it.

    Source link

  • Home builders sentiment index falls for record tenth month in a row in October. Home builders say the ‘situation is unhealthy and unsustainable.’

    Home builders sentiment index falls for record tenth month in a row in October. Home builders say the ‘situation is unhealthy and unsustainable.’

    The numbers:  The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) monthly confidence fell 8 points to 38 in October, the trade group said on Tuesday.

    It’s the tenth month in a row that the index has fallen.

    Outside of the pandemic, the October reading of 38 is the lowest level since August 2012.

    A year ago, the index stood at 80.

    The index’s ten-month drop is a new record. The index last fell for 8 months straight in 2006 and 2007.

    Key details: All three gauges that underpin the overall builder-confidence index fell.

    • The gauge that marks current sales conditions fell by 9 points. 

    • The component that assesses sales expectations for the next six months fell by 11 points.

    • And the gauge that measures traffic of prospective buyers fell by 6 points.

    All four NAHB regions posted a drop in builder confidence, led by the south and the west. 

    It’s also likely that this year will be the first time since 2011 that single-family starts see a decline, the NAHB added.

    Big picture: Builders continue to struggle to find buyers with the current rate environment.

    Now they’re saying they’re worried about that depressed demand impacting supply moving forward.

    Specifically, they’re concerned about housing affordability worsening, with potentially fewer new homes being built in the future.

    Mortgage rates have doubled from last year, now exceeding 7%, which has considerably cooled buyer demand. 

    Home price growth is moderating, but prices have not come down substantially — yet. 

    The median sales price for a new home was $436,800 in August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    What the NAHB said: Builders are expecting single-family starts to fall for the first time in 11 years — and expect additional declines through 2023, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, due to the Federal Reserve’s projected rate hikes to control inflation.

    “While some analysts have suggested that the housing market is now more ‘balanced,’ the truth is that the homeownership rate will decline in the quarters ahead as higher interest rates, and ongoing elevated construction costs continue to price out a large number of prospective buyers,” he added.

    “This situation is unhealthy and unsustainable,” Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. and the NAHB’s chairman, said in a statement.
    “Policymakers must address this worsening housing affordability crisis,” he added.

    What are they saying? “The housing sector – sentiment, building activity and sales – is collapsing under the weight of a rapid increase in interest rates and elevated prices, which are crimping affordability and demand,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note.

    So expect building activity to be depressed, she added.

    Market reaction: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.989%
    fell to 3.98% on Tuesday morning.

    While the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
    XHB,
    +2.15%
    traded slightly higher during the morning session, and the big home-builder stocks, from D.R. Horton Inc.
    DHI,
    +2.90%
    to Toll Brothers
    TOL,
    +1.87%
    to Lennar
    LEN,
    +2.97%    ,
    edged higher.

    Source link

  • I want to retire next year, but I have $25,000 in credit card debt and a major monthly mortgage payment — I also live with my three kids and ex

    I want to retire next year, but I have $25,000 in credit card debt and a major monthly mortgage payment — I also live with my three kids and ex

    I’ll be 57 next month and am divorced with three kids living with me. One is 28, she’s working, another is 21 and a senior in college (with a full scholarship) and the youngest is 15 (a sophomore in high school with a full scholarship). 

    I plan to retire at the end of next year with $25,000 in credit card debt and 15 more years to pay my mortgage. The credit cards have 0% interest. I have a good medical benefit when I retire and it will cover my two sons under 26 years old. My monthly expenses are $2,000, including life insurance, utilities, and a car payment.  

    My mortgage is around $4,000 monthly impounded. The interest rate is 2% until January 2022, then 3% until January 2023 and the remaining loan is 4.5%. Is it worth it to refinance to a lower rate? I also plan to just pay the principal and pay interest in December and April. I have two credit cards: one that totals $20,000, where the 0% promo ends in April 2021, and another with $4,500 where the 0% interest promo ends this December. 

    I work for the state and have a pension and 401(k) and 457 investments that total $110,000. I also have one month’s worth of expenses in an emergency fund. I can only apply for a loan to the retirement accounts while employed. 

    I would like to ask if retiring will be a good idea. If so, is it appropriate to take a loan with my investment to pay off the credit card debt before retiring? Based on our benefit, I don’t have to repay the debt (to the 401(k)) after my retirement unless I win the lottery or something. There won’t be a penalty. My annual gross income is $96,000.

    I’m a cohabitant with my ex on the house but get no contribution from him at all. I am working with my lawyer to see if I have the right to kick him out of the house.

    Please help.

    Thank you.

    CDT

    See: I’m a 57-year-old nurse with no retirement savings and I want to retire within seven years. What can I do?

    Dear CDT, 

    You have a lot to juggle, so the fact that you’re reaching out to someone for some financial guidance should be deemed an accomplishment all its own!

    The truth is, you may want to hold off on retiring if you can. Having $110,000 in retirement accounts is great, and you don’t want to have to start dwindling that down while also trying to manage a way to effectively pay down credit card debt and a mortgage. Should an emergency arise, taking a big chunk out of that nest egg could end up hurting you significantly in the long run. 

    “I think she needs to take a hard look at her income and expenses,” said Tammy Wener, a financial adviser and co-founder of RW Financial Planning. “When it comes to retirement, so many things are out of your control, like inflation and investment return. The one thing you do have control over is expenses.” Furthermore, your pension may be enough to maintain your lifestyle — though advisers wondered what exactly you would be getting from that pension every month — but you would still be better off with a larger nest egg to fall back on. 

    Say you retire next year after all, but you still have credit card debt and hefty bills to pay. Any retirement income you have with and outside of your current funds may not be sufficient for your current living expenses, and if in a few years you realize this, you could end up back in the workforce — though it may be hard to get the same or a similar job you already have. 

    Let’s look at your 401(k) and 457 plans for a moment. You said you could take a loan and based on your benefit you don’t need to pay it back, but you should be extremely cautious about this. With 401(k) loans, employees may be required to repay that loan if they’re separated from their employers, so this is a stipulation you should absolutely verify. If there was any misunderstanding as to how a loan is treated, that remaining loan would be treated as taxable income when you left your job, Wener said. 

    Financial advisers usually caution investors not to take loans and withdrawals from retirement accounts if they can avoid it, and in your case, this may be especially true as you plan to retire in the next year. When you take a loan, you may be paying yourself and your account back, but your balance is reduced by the amount of the loan, which means you could lose out on investment returns. In the midst of this pandemic, many of the Americans who took a loan or withdrawal regret it now, a recent survey found. “I would not recommend ‘swapping debt’ by taking a loan from her investments,” said Hank Fox, a financial planner. “Instead, she should pay whatever amount is due each month to avoid the finance charges and continue to pay-down the balances.” 

    Don’t miss: 5 ways to find free financial advice

    Also, consider what would happen if you continued to work: you’d still be able to contribute to a retirement account, boost your savings and, if applicable, reap the rewards with an employer match. You’d also narrow the amount of time you have between retirement and when you can claim Social Security benefits, Fox said. 

    Outside of the retirement accounts, you should try to build a “sizable” emergency fund, Wener said. Financial advisers typically suggest three to six months’ worth of living expenses, though you might want to strive for closer to six to offset any undesirable scenarios. 

    I’m not sure what the motivation was to retire next year, but if you can delay it, this may be the best solution. “The first thing I would recommend is that she reconsider retiring next year,” Fox said. “Since she will be 57 in November and assuming she is in good health, she should expect to be in retirement for 30 years or more.” 

    If postponing retirement is not an option, and it isn’t always, he suggests reducing or eliminating your mortgage, since it’s your largest expense by far. You could refinance, Wener said. Interest rates are very low these days, and while you may end up paying a little more every month for the next two years compared with that 2% rate you currently have, you’d end up paying the same and then less from February 2022 and on. 

    As for your credit cards, having a 0% interest rate is such a huge help in paying off debts faster, so you should try to extend that benefit, either by calling and asking about your options with your current credit card company or looking at alternative 0% interest cards. 

    A financial adviser — specifically, a Certified Financial Planner — could really help you crunch the numbers and find meaningful ways to make the most of the money you have now and will be getting in retirement, said Vince Clanton, principal and investment adviser representative at Chancellor Wealth Management. 

    An adviser can gather information on your current earnings and expenses, retirement savings, potential Social Security benefits and pension and create a financial plan to help you navigate retirement. “Voluntary retirement, and particularly early retirement, are very big decisions,” Clanton said. “It’s extremely important to know and understand all of the variables.” 

    Letters are edited for clarity.

    Have a question about your own retirement savings? Email us at HelpMeRetire@marketwatch.com

    Source link

  • Will the stock market be open on Columbus Day?

    Will the stock market be open on Columbus Day?

    It’s a regular day of business for the U.S. stock market on Monday, October 10, as equity exchanges stay open for Columbus Day, a federal holiday that also has been recognized as Indigenous Peoples’ Day.

    Bond markets, however, take the day off, which means a long weekend for the Treasury market, corporate bonds and other forms of tradable debt, starting after the close of business on Friday.

    Stocks have endured a brutal selloff in the first nine months of the year as the Federal Reserve has worked to fight inflation that’s been stuck near it highest levels since the early 1980s.

    See: Why stock-market bulls keep falling for Fed ‘pivot’ feints — and what it will take to put in a bottom

    The central bank’s main tool to battle inflation has been to dramatically increase interest rates, while also shrinking its balance sheet, in an effort to tighten financial conditions and squelch demand for goods and services, while also bringing down stubbornly high costs of living, including food, shelter and energy prices.

    The Fed’s focus in recent months also has been on cooling the roaring labor market, with strong wage gains in the past year viewed as one of several culprits behind elevated inflation.

    Friday’s jobs report for September pegged the unemployment rate as matching a prepandemic low of 3.5%, dashing hopes for now of a significant trend toward a pullback in the labor market.

    The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -2.80%
    tumbled 2.8% on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -2.11%
    fell 630.15 points, or 2.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    -3.04%
    dropped 3.8%. An early October rally had offered some hope for a bounce for stocks, after a brutal first nine months for investors.

    Bonds also have undergone a painful repricing this year as volatility tied to the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign has eroded the value of bonds issued in the past decade of low rates.

    Read: Bond markets facing historic losses grow anxious about Fed that ‘isn’t blinking yet’

    The S&P 500 is down about 24% for the year, while the Dow is off 19% and the Nasdaq nearly 32%.The 10-year Treasury rate
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.889%
    was near 3.9% Friday, after recently touching 4%, it’s highest since 2010

    Source link

  • Will the stock market be open on Columbus Day?

    Will the stock market be open on Columbus Day?

    It’s a regular day of business for the U.S. stock market on Monday, October 10, as equity exchanges stay open for Columbus Day, a federal holiday that also has been recognized as Indigenous Peoples’ Day.

    Bond markets, however, take the day off, which means a long weekend for the Treasury market, corporate bonds and other forms of tradable debt, starting after the close of business on Friday.

    Stocks have endured a brutal selloff in the first nine months of the year as the Federal Reserve has worked to fight inflation that’s been stuck near it highest levels since the early 1980s.

    The central bank’s main tool to battle inflation has been to dramatically increase interest rates, while also shrinking its balance sheet, in an effort to tighten financial conditions and squelch demand for goods and services, while also bringing down stubbornly high costs of living, including food, shelter and energy prices.

    The Fed’s focus in recent months also has been on cooling the roaring labor market, with strong wage gains in the past year viewed as one of several culprits behind elevated inflation.

    Friday’s jobs report for September pegged the unemployment rate as matching a prepandemic low of 3.5%, dashing hopes for now of a significant trend toward a pullback in the labor market.

    The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -3.03%
    tumbled 1.9% on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -2.39%
    was down 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    -3.89%
    was off 2.6%. And early October rally had offered some hope for a bounce for stocks, after a brutal first nine months for investors.

    Bonds also have undergone a painful repricing this year as volatility tied to the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign has eroded the value of bonds issued in the past decade of low rates.

    The S&P 500 is down about 23% for the year, the Dow off 19% and the Nasdaq off 31% since January. The 10-year Treasury rate
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.884%
    was near 3.9% Friday, after recently touching 4%, it’s highest since 2010

    Source link

  • Retire to Portugal? Hot springs in January, no traffic, and universal health care — the best retirement escape you’ve never heard of

    Retire to Portugal? Hot springs in January, no traffic, and universal health care — the best retirement escape you’ve never heard of

    Money manager Matt Patsky stood at the window of his hotel on the Portuguese island of São Miguel in March last year, looking out over the Atlantic, and thought: I’m not sure we can retire here after all.

    He told his husband, “I don’t know [if] we could live here. It looks like the people are crazy. There are people going in the water, swimming in the ocean. How crazy do you have to be to go swimming in the Atlantic in March?”

    Patsky, 56, mentioned this to a local real-estate agent later that day. The man didn’t understand the issue. The water, he said, was probably no cooler than 65 degrees.

    How these Americans save money in retirement: They live in Spain

    As Boston-based Patsky adds: In New England you’re lucky if the water gets that warm in August.

    It’s “one of the great selling points of the Azores,” he says. “It is rarely below 60. It is rarely above 80. And the water temperature tends to be steady between 65 and 75 degrees.”

    Patsky says he and his husband, a retired businessman who’s 66, are “80%” sure they are going to live outside the United States when they retire. They are tired especially of the politics and the racial tensions.

    The No. 1 thing that attracted them to the Azores — which lie barely more than twice as far from Boston as from Lisbon — wasn’t the weather. It was the emigration.

    Portugal, they discovered, offers the all-round fastest, cheapest, easiest way to get a so-called golden visa, putting the recipient on a fast track to permanent residence and citizenship.

    You have to have means, but this is not purely for Rockefellers. If you want to get Portuguese residency, and a passport, you need to buy a home in the country and generally to put at least some money into fixing it up, and spend at least seven days a year in the country for the next five years.

    After six months, you get a residency card. After five years, a passport.

    The threshold prices vary, depending on the type of home you buy and where you buy it, but they start at €280,000 (about $310,000).

    As part of the deal, says Patsky, you have to buy the home with cash. You can’t take out a Portuguese mortgage. But you can always raise the cash by remortgaging a U.S. home. The money thresholds are lower than in many other countries. And the seven-day requirement lets Patsky continue his job in Boston, as the CEO of socially responsible investing company Trillium, during the five years.

    A small but growing number of Americans are choosing to retire abroad — some because it’s cheaper; some because they have family or roots overseas; and some because of lifestyle, culture or ambience. The number of retired U.S. workers receiving Social Security checks overseas has risen by a third in 10 years, and that doesn’t count all the “retirement refugees” who get their benefits deposited in a bank account in the U.S.

    Europe is by far the most popular destination by continent, with about a quarter of a million U.S. retirees, based on Social Security direct deposits. That includes nearly 13,000 in Portugal.

    “Portugal has been so welcoming to the LGBT community, that you are seeing a huge number of LGBT couples looking at Portugal,” reports Patsky. On their trips to the Azores, Patsky says he and his husband have been bumping into other LGBT couples from the U.S. looking at golden visas as well.

    On a recent trip they overheard four American women at the next table in a restaurant. It was “two lesbian couples from Philadelphia, looking at the ‘golden visa’ and looking at property in the Azores. We ended up sitting with them with my iPad open looking at property.”

    You can see the islands’ attraction. There are regular flights from various North American and European cities, Patsky says. “It’s a 4½-hour flight from Boston, and, because of our large Azorean population [in New England], there are actually daily flights,” he says.

    Pretty much everyone on the island speaks some English, which is taught in schools as a compulsory second language.

    “It’s like living in a Portuguese fishing village,” Patsky says of Ponta Delgada, the main city on São Miguel. “It has a lot of the same feel as Provincetown [on Cape Cod], in terms of being a fishing village. It’s quaint.” The population is about 70,000. “It’s a good size, and it’s got a very vibrant economy.”

    Thanks to some spectacular cliffs, São Miguel — one of the nine islands that the Azores comprise — has hosted the Red Bull World Cliff Diving World Series on several occasions, including last year.

    Patsky and his husband love the island’s natural beauty. “January, we were swimming, we were at the hot springs. Incredible. This really is nice weather year round. There is no traffic. There is no rush hour.” The longest distance you could drive on the island, from one point to another, would take you an hour, he says.

    And unlike in Boston, he adds with a laugh, you don’t see snow.

    Both members of the couple are equally eager to retire abroad, Patsky says, in no small part to flee America’s rising racial tensions and poisonous politics. Last year Patsky’s husband, originally from the Philippines, was run over at a pedestrian crossing in Boston, Patsky recalls, and was left lying on the pavement with multiple fractures. When a policeman arrived at the scene, he asked the prone 65-year-old for his Social Security number to determine whether he was in the U.S. illegally, Patsky says.

    “My husband and I want to make sure that our retirement is spent in a country that respects the dignity of every person,” Patsky says, “and that treats access to health care as a human right.” Portugal has a public health service, modeled after Britain’s National Health Service, which is available to all residents.

    The couple had started talking about an “exit plan” right after the 2016 presidential election. Their research led them to Portugal, and then to the Azores.

    They are hardly alone in looking at the Azores. This is starting to turn into a well-trodden exit route. “There are hotel chains that are selling villas at exactly the price point you need to get the golden visa,” Patsky says. They’ll even rent the villa out for you to tourists, to generate income, and say they’ll buy it back after the five years are up.

    Patsky says the couple won’t be moving for at least five years. Patsky’s remaining at the helm of Trillium following its takeover by Australia’s Perpetual Ltd.
    PPT,
    -1.13%    .
    He says one of the key appeals of Portugal’s visa program is that he can carry on working full time in the U.S. while at the same time completing the steps needed to get his Portuguese passport.

    Naturally, there are forms to fill out. You’ll need the usual financial and employment records. You’ll also need an FBI report to prove you have a clean rap sheet. (Pro tip from Patsky: Don’t get your fingerprints done at the police station on card. Get them done electronically at the post office and apply online. It will save you weeks.)

    As for that major retirement headache, health care, you will need to prove you have health insurance in your home country every year during the initial five years, Patsky says. Medicare counts.

    And when you finally retire to the country full time? After your five-year period you’ll have a Portuguese passport. And that means an EU passport. And so you can move anywhere in the EU, including those places with the most lavish, generous public health insurance.

    “You can pick wherever you want to retire because it’s the EU,” Patsky says.

    Source link