Newfound optimism on Morgan Stanley helped its stock close Friday’s session at its highest level of the year. Jim Cramer is still unsure what the Club’s next move should be. Morgan Stanley’s persistent underperformance has made the stock one of our thornier positions — so much so that Jim has openly considered dumping it for investment banking rival Goldman Sachs . Dealmaking activity has picked up, but it’s not been enough to fully unlock Morgan Stanley shares. That is in large part because the bank’s wealth management division has failed to impress. Analysts at HSBC see better days ahead for Morgan Stanley and in a note to clients late Thursday upgraded the stock to a buy rating from hold, arguing its “long period of underperformance could be ending.” Among the reasons for the call: A healthy market backdrop should support the financial performance of both its investment banking and wealth management operations, analysts said. They added that negative sentiment around the stock more generally also seems to have bottomed. Shares of Morgan Stanley rose more than 3% Friday, to $107.88 each, helped by both HSBC’s upgrade and better-than-expected jobs data , which lifted the entire banking sector higher, including fellow portfolio name Wells Fargo . Morgan Stanley ended Friday within a dollar of its all-time closing high of $108.73 reached back in February 2022. Still, the stock is up only 15.7% year to date and 36.4% over the past 12 months, lagging behind the KBW Bank Index , which has climbed 19.4% and 52.6%, respectively, over those timeframes. For its part, Goldman Sachs has jumped 28.4% so far in 2024 and 60.5% in the past year. Friday’s positive developments are welcome news – but not enough to add clarity on our path forward for Morgan Stanley. We’re maintaining our hold-equivalent 2 rating on the stock. “Candidly, I think that [Morgan Stanley] is not priced for a good IPO market and [Goldman Sachs] is,” Jim said Friday. “The reason for that is because I think that people believe the wealth advisory business isn’t doing as well as it can be and the E-Trade buy seems to not be working out,” Jim said, referring to Morgan Stanley’s $13 billion acquisition of the brokerage firm in 2020. “We still do not have answers for that so I can’t say that we are going to upgrade.” However, there’s hope Morgan Stanley’s stock can climb higher if its sizable investment banking business continues its recovery. In order for that to happen, there must be a more meaningful resurgence in initial public offerings (IPO) and mergers and acquisitions (M & A) after more than two downbeat years for both dealmaking markets. Banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have long relied on fee-based revenues from deals. The more activity there is, the more fees available for them to collect. The nascent rebound has already showed up in Morgan Stanley’s results. In the second quarter, revenue for the firm’s investment banking segment surged 51% year over year. Meanwhile, advisory and equity underwriting fees both increased 30% and 56%, respectively, over the same period. The environment for deals is not back to normal just yet, though. During an industry conference in September, Morgan Stanley co-president Dan Simkowitz said that M & A and IPOs will likely remain below trend through year-end. To be sure, the executive also forecasted that this activity would accelerate in 2025 as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-cutting efforts ripple through the economy. Morgan Stanley’s wealth management franchise — a major growth priority for the bank — is a lingering concern after a miss on revenues last quarter, which caused the stock to briefly sink. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs beat analysts’ expectations for revenues in wealth. Morgan Stanley’s quarterly results on Oct. 17 will provide an important look at whether this challenged part of its business is showing any reason for optimism. For the time being, the Club is taking a wait-and-see approach with Morgan Stanley stock. If there is a surge in IPO and M & A activity that HSBC forecasted, Morgan Stanley is well-positioned to benefit. “If we get deals, [Morgan Stanley] will be a good place to be,” Jim said. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long MS, WFC. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
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Newfound optimism on Morgan Stanley helped its stock close Friday’s session at its highest level of the year. Jim Cramer is still unsure what the Club’s next move should be.
Big Wall Street banks and interest rates have a complicated relationship. As the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon embarks on easing monetary policy, banks are hoping for a more normalized bond market yield curve, with a wider spread between the short end and the long end. Banks make interest income by paying for deposits at a lower rate and lending at a higher rate. They also make money on fee-based services in businesses that pick up when rates are lower. “These banks are pretty sophisticated,” Erica Groshen, former New York Fed vice president, told CNBC in an interview. “They have been managing their risk all along knowing that eventually, interest rates were going to come down.” Groshen, a senior economic advisor at Cornell University, added, “The Fed has been doing a pretty amazing job of getting very close to a soft landing” as a stable economy can lift all boats. On the interest side, banks pull levers and push buttons to make the best of any rate environment. But the clearest line of sight to the benefits of lower rates is in investment banking because cheaper borrowing costs tend to encourage more mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings. Banks take fees from clients putting together deals and taking their companies public. For Morgan Stanley , a rebound in capital markets is crucial to the Club’s investment thesis. While diversifying in recent years to become less dependent on investment banking, it’s still a big part of the business. When the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022, M & A and IPO activity grounded to a halt. Would-be clients sought to conserve capital on concerns about a recession. Dealmaking, however, has picked up this year on the prospects of lower rates. The Club has stayed with Morgan Stanley on expectations that its investment banking outfit will flourish again. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance There has been some progress so far. Morgan Stanley was tapped for high-profile deals like Reddit’s IPO in March. Investment banking, which falls under Morgan Stanley’s Institutional Securities, accounts for roughly 46% of overall revenue. The division handily beat on second-quarter revenue . Morgan Stanley’s IB revenue increased 53% year-over-year, while advisory fees and equity underwriting fees jumped more than 30% and 56%, respectively. Still, Jim Cramer recently said there have not been enough signs of a recovery at Morgan Stanley. The stock’s underperformance compared to peers and the market has disappointed him. Shares of Morgan Stanley are up 7% year to date, versus the KBW Bank Index ‘s nearly 17% gain and the S & P 500 ‘s 18% advance in 2024. Jim has said he’s considering swapping Morgan Stanley for his old shop Goldman Sachs . “Morgan Stanley is in no man’s land, too low to sell and too high to buy. That means wait, which is exactly what we are doing,” he said during last week’s September Monthly Meeting. “That said, I think we have battled enough.” At Wells Fargo , the Club’s other financial name, lower rates should help its burgeoning investment banking business. While known as a traditional money center bank, CEO Charlie Scharf has been diversifying the firm’s business mix. Wells Fargo shares year-to-date have performed better than Morgan Stanley, gaining 11%. However, the stock was still trailing KBW and the S & P 500 over the same stretch. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date performance The Corporate and Investment Banking division makes up 23% of overall revenue. However, management has made significant strides to expand CIB through a slew of senior hires. These investments are helping Wells Fargo to rely less on interest-based revenue streams, which are at the mercy of the Fed’s policy rather than management’s own strategy. “Wells is doing incredibly well and I think that CEO Charlie Scharf has a winning formula for when rates go down,” Jim said, referencing the firm’s CIB expansion. Investment banking at Wells Fargo houses its Commercial Real Estate portfolio — once one of the largest among big banks. The estimated $21 trillion CRE sector has experienced mounting troubles due to higher vacancy rates and higher odds of delinquencies. However, with rates coming down, Wells Fargo’s CRE exposure becomes less of a concern for investors because cheap borrowing costs lead to more property sales and rentals. To be sure, Wells Fargo management said during July’s second-quarter earnings call that the bank will continue to de-risk its office portfolio. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, MS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell announces that interest rates will remain unchanged during a news conference at the bank’s William McChesney Martin building on May 01, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
Big Wall Street banks and interest rates have a complicated relationship.
When Charlie Scharf took the reins at Wells Fargo five years ago, the bank was in turmoil. A series of scandals landed it in the regulatory doghouse — dealing a major blow to the 172-year-old firm’s reputation and leading to a multi-billion-dollar plunge in its stock market value. Fast forward to 2024: Wells Fargo looks like a different bank altogether — and despite Friday’s post-earnings decline, the turnaround is still humming. Wells Fargo tumbled more than 6% to under $57 per share after missing expectations on quarterly net interest income (NII), a key measure of lending profitability. Investors on Friday were more concerned about NII weakness than overall second-quarter revenue and earnings per share (EPS) beats. Management’s drive under Scharf into fee-based businesses such as investment banking helped offset softer NII. However, since investment banking revenue is tied to compensation, the bank had to raise its expense outlook for the year. That’s a good problem to have. In Friday’s earnings commentary , the Club upgraded Wells Fargo back to our buy-equivalent 1 rating — viewing Friday’s drop as an opportunity to add shares. Expansion into new markets has been a hallmark of Scharf’s tenure, along with an overhaul of senior leadership and an improved standing with regulators. Taken together, it shows just how far the CEO has gone to rehabilitate Wells Fargo. Investors have taken notice. Despite Friday’s setback, shares of Wells Fargo are still up more than 15% so far this year, compared to 13% for the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index , which tracks the performance of major U.S. banks. Since Scharf was announced as CEO in September 2019, Wells Fargo shares gained 12.5% — on par with the banking sector. The stock hit a multiyear high of $62.55 per share in May, which was only a few dollars off its January 2018 all-time record close of nearly $66. “Scharf has done an incredible job fixing up Wells Fargo,” said Jeff Marks, director of portfolio analysis for the CNBC Investing Club. “Before he joined, the bank had a bloated cost structure, lagged in technology, and suffered from a horrible reputation. Scharf and his team have right-sized costs, invested in tech, and materially enhanced the bank’s risks and controls.” A big part of Scharf’s job has been moving the company through all the regulatory hurdles that were put in place after the scandals of the late 2010s. In 2016, Wells was found to have opened millions of unauthorized bank accounts under customer names as employees tried to meet high-pressure sales goals. Just a year later, the bank was accused of charging hundreds of thousands of people for auto insurance they did not need, many of which resulted in delinquencies. Among those affected were active duty military service members. That same year, Wells Fargo admitted to improperly charging home lending customers for mortgage-rate-lock extensions as well. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date performance The Federal Reserve ordered Wells Fargo to freeze its balance sheet in 2018, keeping its assets below $1.95 trillion until senior management cleaned up its act. The most recent sign that Scharf is repairing that damage came in February when the company cleared a major regulatory hurdle tied to the 2016 fake accounts scandal. The bank said in a release that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency terminated a consent order, or penalty, that forced it to change how it sells its retail products and services. This was a “huge accomplishment” and another big step toward removing the Fed’s asset cap, said Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala. “As we know, getting regulatory issues resolved is not an easy task for large organizations, and I think that if the bank can get out of the asset cap over the next year or so, that will be a big boost of additional credibility for Charlie and his leadership,” he added. The asset cap places a constraint on Wells Fargo’s growth by prohibiting the bank from doing more lending and, in turn, increasing interest incomes. It also keeps the bank from acquiring other high-growth companies or making strategic investments that could increase its assets beyond that nearly $2 trillion threshold. To be sure, Scharf and Wells are not out of the woods yet. The bank has cleared six of 14 consent orders from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. While they don’t all need to be cleared before the U.S. central bank lifts the cap, more progress is still needed. During a banking conference in May, Scharf said Wells had eliminated the aggressive sales targets and certain incentive plans at branches that initially spurred bad behavior. The bank has also paid billions to regulators over the years. In 2022, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ordered Wells to dish out $3.7 billion alone for violations across its auto loans, mortgages and deposit accounts. But ultimately, it’s up to the regulators to decide if the cap will be removed. “We have to close these orders. We have to build the controls and make them part of the company,” Scharf said. “So, we’re not declaring victory.” In addition, Wells Fargo’s investment banking business, while growing, is small in comparison to the other banking behemoths that also reported Friday. Revenue from Wells Fargo’s investment banking segment in the second quarter jumped 38% year over year to $430 million. JPMorgan Chase ‘s investment banking revenue surged 46% to $2.5 billion. The Club’s other bank, Morgan Stanley , also has a bigger investment banking division. It reports earnings on Tuesday. There’s still a lot to celebrate, however. Wells Fargo parted with most of its senior management from its pre-2019 era and remade its board of directors. Eleven out of the 15 members on Wells Fargo’s senior leadership team have joined since Scharf assumed his role. The same goes for six out of the 13 board members for the financial behemoth. Poonawala said the new hires will help change the company’s culture and build back its reputation for honesty and trust. “I think not having sort of a lot of intense legacy [in management] helps,” he said, adding: “If you look at the org structure, most of these executives are new to the bank during his operating committee. When you look at the turnaround and how this plays out, he’s been able to attract a lot of high-quality talent from competitors, and I think that helps” when fixing a company. Scharf’s plan to move Wells beyond its traditional lending roots is also well under way. A CNBC analysis in late May found that Wells Fargo made at least 17 senior-level hires in its corporate and investment banking (CIB) division since the start of 2023. Under Scharf’s leadership, the bank has poached top talent from Wall Street peers like Scharf’s former employer, JPMorgan Chase. For example, Doug Braunstein, an M & A veteran who spent nearly two decades at the bank, joined Wells Fargo as vice chairman in February to oversee its corporate finance and advisory businesses. “Wells Fargo has historically been known as more of a mortgage bank, but they’ve taken some measures to reduce their sensitivity to the mortgage environment,” Raymond James analyst David Long said in a recent interview. “Charlie and his team brought in several high-ranking bankers in the investment banking arena, and we’re starting to see positive results in that regard.” He added: “The higher-for-longer [interest rate] environment is not conducive to more M & A and other investment banking transactions, but if rates do start to come down, we’re likely to see a pickup in that business, which Wells would be a beneficiary of.” Thursday’s cooler consumer inflation report boosted the case for the Fed to start cutting interest rates, with market odds growing for as many as three cuts by year-end. An expansion into investment banking is beneficial for Wells Fargo because it allows the firm to rely less on interest-based revenues, which are at the mercy of the Fed’s monetary policy. Remember, management forecasted a NII decline between 7% to 9% for fiscal year 2024, and second-quarter earnings on Friday showed that it will likely come in at the top of that range. This is because customers are moving their funds to higher-yielding products as rates stay higher for longer. Instead, fee-based incomes — like those from advisory costs on M & A deals and other IB transactions — are a more durable and less volatile revenue stream. “We continued to see growth in our fee-based revenue offsetting an expected decline in net interest income,” Scharf said on Friday. “The investments we have been making allowed us to take advantage of the market activity in the quarter with strong performance in investment advisory, trading and investment banking fees.” Marks said the exec’s strategy is “really working,” citing the second-quarter’s 19% year-over-year increase in non-interest income, which handily beat expectations. “Fee revenues were fantastic, we continue to see Charlie Scharf really make a really big push into this. He’s gone on a hiring spree lately, hiring a lot of ex bankers throughout the industry,” Marks said on Friday. “He wants to make the bank less tied to the yield curve and more tied to the sticky fee-based revenues, but it’s going to take time.” (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, MS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Charlie Scharf, CEO, Wells Fargo, speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California on May 2, 2023. speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California on May 2, 2023.
Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images
When Charlie Scharf took the reins at Wells Fargo five years ago, the bank was in turmoil. A series of scandals landed it in the regulatory doghouse — dealing a major blow to the 172-year-old firm’s reputation and leading to a multi-billion-dollar plunge in its stock market value.
Fast forward to 2024: Wells Fargo looks like a different bank altogether — and despite Friday’s post-earnings decline, the turnaround is still humming.
The threat from a looming wave of maturing commercial real estate loans has been well telegraphed to investors, but it’s possible the metrics they are using to protect themselves from risk are flawed. Many investors have been avoiding bank stocks with high concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. However, that metric may miss banks that have riskier loans on their books despite having lower concentrations of CRE. For that reason, investors may want to take a more granular look at the types of loans a bank holds. In doing so, they may find some larger banks are on shakier ground than their CRE concentration suggests. Wall of maturity About 30% of outstanding CRE debt is due to mature between 2024 and 2026, according to data provider Trepp. When this debt matures and the property owners look to refinance, borrowers will face much higher debt payments due to rising interest rates, and economics could become untenable, especially given that the value of many office properties has declined. Owners may decide it’s easier to just to hand back the keys and walk away. The heightened concern about default risk is clearly weighing on bank stocks, which are already fighting the headwinds of higher interest rates. Indeed, the gap between both the KBW Bank Index (up about 4% year to date) and the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) (down 12% year to date) versus the S & P 500 Index (up nearly 14%) is even wider now than it was during the regional bank crisis in the spring of 2023, UBS analyst Erika Najarian wrote in a research note Thursday. For the moment, the troubled loans are contained. According to CoStar , about 1.23% of all outstanding CRE loans are considered at risk, but the trend may be heading in the wrong direction. At the end of the first quarter, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said the amount of real estate loans past due or in nonaccrual status was $35 billion, up 9% from the fourth quarter of 2023 and 59% higher than the same period a year ago, marking the highest level in 11 years. Investors have been punishing regional bank stocks, especially when the bank’s commercial real estate exposure tops more than 300% of its total equity . That is a benchmark the Federal Reserve has deemed excessive. Stephens analyst Matt Breese said that many of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic banks he covers that have CRE concentrations above 300% are trading below total book value. But CRE concentrations shouldn’t be the only consideration for investors. Past due loans Stephens analysts have noted that the FDIC’s first-quarter banking profiles revealed that banks with more than $250 billion in assets are the ones seeing an acceleration of past due loans, despite having some of the lowest CRE concentrations. The rate of troubled loans in this group was 4.48% in the first quarter. The analysts said that was far above the 1.47% rate at regional banks and 0.69% at community banks. The trend likely reflects that some of the bigger banks have exposure to large, high-profile office properties in major metropolitan areas. These properties have been particularly hard hit by downtown areas that were battered by the pandemic and companies that are looking to downsize their real estate needs in an age of hybrid work. The Kansas City Fed also called this out in a report , saying that the risk of default from office properties rose with the size of the property. It estimated that if a property was larger than 500,000 square feet, it had a 22% risk of default, while a building that was smaller than 150,000 square feet might have a default risk of less than 5%. In other words, community banks might be less risky than the CRE exposure figure would suggest. According to Breese, there isn’t one single metric that can be easily isolated, but investors could consider the average loan size at a bank as well what asset classes are exposed to interest rates and some of the other negative forces at play. “I think you start to isolate a much smaller piece of that pie,” he said, in an interview. Within Breese’s coverage area, his top stock picks are NBT Bancorp ., Webster Financial and Valley National Bancorp . While the latter two have some exposure to New York City real estate, both banks benefit from strong management teams, he said. (New York real estate markets are navigating both falling office values as well as the dynamics of rent-regulated multifamily properties.) Still, even these stocks are likely to have a tough go as long as interest rates stay high and fears about CRE persist. Connecticut-based Webster has fallen more than 22% year to date, while New Jersey’s Valley National has tumbled 40%. NBT, down about 16% year to date, has fared slightly better. NBTB YTD mountain NBT Bancorp shares year to date. Breese sees NBT as both a defensive and offensive play as it has strong funding and a low CRE concentration of 203%. It also has a compelling opportunity ahead as an upstate New York bank located in an area that is seeing a lot of investment in semiconductor manufacturing from companies such as Micron Technology . UBS’ Najarian said the bank scanned stocks that were both sensitive to interest rates and had the most CRE exposure and Providence, R.I.-based Citizens Financial Group had the “most compelling stand-alone ‘story.’” She cited factors such as private banking traction and a reduced drag from swaps as two catalysts. For larger banks, the sentiment could be improving, according to Piper Sandler analyst R. Scott Siefers. In early June, he explained that the larger banks have fewer outstanding “wildcards” and improving fundamentals such as the chance for a turnaround in net interest income and a bounce in investment banking business even with higher interest rates. Siefers also likes Citizens Financial as well as Cleveland’s KeyCorp. He has an overweight rating on both stocks. Citizens is up less than 3% year to date, while KeyCorp. shares are down nearly 7% over the same period. “Financial-only investor interest has increased, though generalists still seem mostly disengaged,” Siefers wrote.
Reddit’s public debut is not only a watershed moment for the social media company, but it also could deliver broad benefits for the Wall Street firm leading the multibillion-dollar deal: Club holding Morgan Stanley. On Thursday, Reddit will start trading on the New York Stock Exchange with a targeted valuation of around $6.5 billion . If the initial public offering is received positively by investors, this could boost Morgan Stanley’s investment banking business and over time its wealth management segment, too. The listing comes at a crucial time for the bank after it posted lackluster quarterly results earlier this year and shares underperform peers and the broader market. Morgan Stanley stock has dropped 2% year-to-date, compared with the KBW Bank Index ‘s more than 5% gains since the start of 2024. The portfolio’s other financial stock, Wells Fargo , is up 15% over the period. The S & P 500 has advanced 9.5%. Morgan Stanley’s weak 2024 stock performance was spurred by a post-earnings sell-off back in January. Investors were seemingly underwhelmed by the cautious macro commentary from newly installed CEO Ted Pick, who replaced James Gorman at the start of the year. Pick’s comments that operating margins for the bank’s wealth management division were likely going to consolidate in the mid-20% range over the near term also didn’t help the stock, even though he maintained confidence in achieving its 30% target down the road. The Club also was disappointed in the earnings release, but we’re hopeful leadership was lowering shareholder expectations to exceed them down the line. In any case, the Club trimmed some Morgan Stanley shares earlier this month after a curious single-session surge helped erase losses tied to its fourth-quarter results. MS .SPX YTD mountain Morgan Stanley’s 2024 stock performance compared with the S & P 500. Jim Cramer described Morgan Stanley’s recent performance — both in share price and quarterly earnings — as “horrendous,” citing “desultory management” over the past six months, a period that partially included Gorman’s efforts to pass the baton to Pick. This is exactly why Reddit’s IPO could be a nice reprieve for the Wall Street giant. “As shareholders of Morgan Stanley, we need this to work or a lot of whatever faith is left in the bank will dissipate.” Jim wrote in a recent column, adding that the IPO’s “success relies on how tightly Morgan Stanley conducts the deal.” Morgan Stanley is a lead underwriter for the IPO, meaning its bankers act as middlemen to help Reddit go from a private to a public company. Underwriters typically help structure the offering, including the number of shares to be issued and the initial price range for the stock. Goldman Sachs , JPMorgan and Bank of America are also lead underwriters for the process; it’s common for multiple banks to be involved. More dealmaking Morgan Stanley can benefit from Reddit’s stock debut in two main ways. First, its investment banking business earns a fee based on the amount of the offering and for selling shares to investors during the IPO. Although Reddit’s IPO is fairly large, it will not by itself move the needle for the Wall Street giant long term. Instead, Reddit’s debut should be viewed as a way to gauge investors’ appetite and the future of the broader dealmaking environment. After a boom during the Covid pandemic, IPO activity slowed dramatically after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in March 2022. The higher borrowing costs brought on by those rate hikes and an uncertain economic environment have weighed on Morgan Stanley’s once-lucrative investment banking business. If shares of Reddit are well-received by the market, other private companies who have been waiting for the IPO market to rebound in earnest may look to go public — and possibly choose Morgan Stanley as a facilitator for their offerings. Even though its multiyear push into wealth management means it is less dependent on investment banking than it was a decade ago, this IPO could have far-reaching implications that boost a crucial lagging part of Morgan Stanley’s business. Reddit’s IPO also isn’t the only one Morgan Stanley is underwriting. Chipmaker Astera Labs , which on Wednesday jumped 72.5% in its debut on the Nasdaq, tapped Morgan Stanley’s investment banking services for its offering. A virtuous circle Morgan Stanley’s wealth management division may also benefit from more IPO activity. Once Morgan Stanley’s bankers conduct a public offering for a client, this can create a virtuous cycle that ultimately boosts net new assets for the wealth management business. Jed Finn, Morgan Stanley’s head of wealth management, explained how at recent a Bank of America conference. “Going from private to public starts a very important catalyst within the system,” Finn said at the event. “Our investment bankers execute the IPO. The client becomes a public equity admin client in our workplace business. Our [financial advisors] cover the individuals and the employees and the founders and the early investors.” He continued: “We add financial wellness programs to support the company as they broaden out their employee base. [Morgan Stanley Investment Management] manages the corporate cash. So, it creates a flywheel in our system that drives” net new assets. Morgan Stanley needs them. In a CNBC interview in January, CEO Pick reiterated the firm’s long-term goal of reaching $10 trillion in assets across wealth and asset management. But Morgan Stanley is still a ways off from hitting this goal, which was first laid out by Pick’s predecessor. The bank brought in $47 billion worth of net new assets in the fourth quarter, according to an earnings release . For the full year, Morgan Stanley brought in an additional $282 billion in assets, up 7% on an annual to bring its client assets to $6.6 trillion. Correction: This article has been updated to correct the spelling of Jed Finn’s name. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long MS, WFC. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
A trader on the floor of the NYSE with a Reddit T-shirt works after the opening bell as Reddit begins trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on March 21, 2024.
Timothy A. Clary | AFP | Getty Images
Reddit’s public debut is not only a watershed moment for the social media company, but it also could deliver broad benefits for the Wall Street firm leading the multibillion-dollar deal: Club holding Morgan Stanley.
Wells Fargo shares jumped over the past year as the once-embattled bank continued to clear the regulatory hurdles put in place after the phony accounts scandal of 2016. But one more milestone is still on the horizon, one that could move the stock even higher: lifting the Federal Reserve’s $1.95 trillion asset cap . That asset cap was a first for the Fed, delivered in 2018 by then-Chair Janet Yellen as her last act leading the central bank and aimed at getting Wells to clean up its act. The punitive measure was also meant to send a message to other financial institutions. Other regulatory agencies also imposed punitive measures over the years, some of which have been cleared. One of the most high-profile consent orders was lifted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency last month. The move pushed Wells stock higher. Many experts say that this order was a key reason behind the Fed’s asset cap in the first place — giving investors reason to think the lifting of the cap is not a matter of if but when. What would that mean for Wells? First, investor sentiment should improve. The Club has maintained that once Wells Fargo’s asset cap is terminated the stock will have even more room to run. After climbing in the final months of 2023, shares of the bank continued higher in 2024. They have jumped nearly 17% year to date, outperforming their big bank peers as evidenced by the KBW Bank Index’s gain of just 2.4% over the period. In a note to clients dated Tuesday, Citigroup cut the rating on Wells Fargo stock to neutral, arguing the “risk/reward is fairly balanced” after the stock’s rally. Still, analysts at the firm also boosted their price target on Wells Fargo to $63 per share from $57 apiece, implying a 10.5% increase from Tuesday’s closing price. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date performance Lifting the years-long order would likely soothe shareholders’ concerns as well. “The sooner the bank can get the asset cap lifted, the greater confidence investors will have in management’s ability to drive a sustained 15% return on tangible common equity,” Jeff Marks, director of portfolio analysis for the CNBC Investing Club, said earlier this month. “The stronger a return Wells can generate, the higher the multiple investors will be willing to pay for the stock.” Wall Street analysts agreed. “It’s safe to say that it would be another leg up [for the stock],” Piper Sandler’s senior banks analyst, Scott Siefers, told CNBC in an interview. To be sure, Wells Fargo hasn’t disclosed when it expects this restriction will be lifted. But the latest consent order termination leads the Club to believe it’s more likely to extend at least into 2025. When it does happen, the bank can take on more customer deposits. Think of these deposits as income-producing assets: The bank can use them to lend more and rake in additional revenue from fees and interest. “If we got rid of the asset cap, they would have the flexibility to take on money to their heart’s content,” Siefers said. “In other words, it just opens up a lot of possibilities.” In a recent CNBC interview, Gerard Cassidy, head of U.S. bank equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said that the “silver lining in this entire period for Wells has been they have now built out a very strong core deposit base, as they’re forced to push out less profitable deposits due to the limit on what they can put on their balance sheet.” In turn, Cassidy said Wells can benefit from more wholesale deposits. These are generally much larger sums from institutions that the bank can make more money off of. This is because what Wells Fargo pays these clients to hold their funds is lower than what the bank would earn on lending it out. A lift of the cap would also allow the bank to expand. Wells Fargo CFO Michael Santomassimo said last month the bank’s markets business has inevitably scaled back because of balance sheet restrictions. “When you look at the markets business, in particular, that definitely was a business that was impacted by the asset cap,” the exec said at the UBS Financial Services Conference. “There’ll be some opportunity, we think, to increase the activity there,” he added. “Some of it could be financing type trades, some of it’s inventory that you hold in certain businesses, but all within sort of the risk appetite that we’ve got.” The firm’s corporate and investment banking business, in particular, could gain from this increased activity. “Wells Fargo on a relative basis is very undersized in businesses such as investment banking,” Siefers said, comparing the firm to rival JPMorgan. “One part of the investment banking business is being able to commit capital. … In other words, put some risk on your balance sheet. But thanks to the asset cap, Wells has not been able to build out its investment bank to the same degree as some of its other peers.” Siefers added: “So in my mind, that will be the most visible area where they’ll have more of a free rein to grow and try to compete more effectively with their largest peers.” Santomassimo said that once the asset cap is lifted, shareholders shouldn’t expect big short-term changes. “I would just caution that when it does happen, it’s not this light switch kind of moment where … all of a sudden, you start to see this growth,” Santomassismo said. “But we do believe that there’ll be some opportunity there. And I think we’re positioning ourselves to be relevant for clients.” (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Wells Fargo shares jumped over the past year as the once-embattled bank continued to clear the regulatory hurdles put in place after the phony accounts scandal of 2016.
But one more milestone is still on the horizon, one that could move the stock even higher: lifting the Federal Reserve’s $1.95 trillion asset cap.
It’s been a year this week since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank sent shockwaves through the banking sector. While the crisis most directly affected the regionals, major U.S. financial institutions for most of 2023 also found their stocks under assault. Big banks, like Club holding Wells Fargo , were largely able to turn the corner. The question is still out on the smaller lenders. On March 10, 2023, SVB abruptly shuttered and regulators seized the firm’s deposits — marking the largest U.S. banking failure since the 2008 financial crisis. The go-to bank of tech venture capitalists went from a well-capitalized institution seeking to raise some funds to closing its doors over a frantic 48-hour period . Bank stocks plummeted on contagion concerns, with shares of regional lenders getting hit the hardest. Recently, New York Community Bancorp’s financial troubles reminded the market of the risks still out there for regional banks. NYCB shares suffered a slew of bad news since the start of 2024 when management disclosed a surprise fourth-quarter loss. A leadership shakeup and Moody’s slashing the bank’s credit rating to junk status didn’t help. In a glimmer of hope, NYCB announced last week an over $1 billion capital injection from investors, led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s Liberty Strategic Capital, and shares recovered a bit. The stock, however, dropped nearly 5% on Monday and remained 68% lower year to date. Unlike 2023’s SVB-induced volatility, the troubles at NYCB have not tanked the entire banking industry. The KBW Bank Index was still up 3.5% year-to-date, with many names outperforming, including Wells Fargo. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date performance While seeing a nice climb in the final months of 2023, shares of Wells Fargo have gained 15% since the start of 2024 — making the stock a top performer among major U.S. banks. Over the same stretch, the S & P 500 rose nearly 7.3%. Wells Fargo shares got a big boost after a key win with regulators in mid-February. Days later, the Club trimmed its Wells Fargo position to lock in some profits and to right-size its weighting in the portfolio, which had swelled to nearly 5%. The stock has since hit a 52-week high last Thursday. It’s only fractionally below that level on Monday. The recent leg higher started when Wells Fargo shares shot up more than 7% on Feb. 15 after the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) lifted a big penalty related to its 2016 sales practice misconduct. Investors cheered because the regulatory news signaled that Wells Fargo could be one step closer to the Federal Reserve lifting the bank’s $1.95 trillion asset cap , which has been in place for over six years. The February OCC action was believed to be a big reason why the Fed’s balance sheet restrictions were first enforced. “That’s why I think investors really gravitated or rallied around this one getting lifted. Because even though they’ve already had a number of them lifted — and still have many more to go — this was kind of at the heart of the matter for them,” Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler senior banks analyst, told CNBC on Friday. “I think, at least psychologically, it led investors to believe ‘Okay, we’re finally getting closer to the finish line.’” Since Charlie Scharf took over as Wells Fargo CEO in 2019, the bank has cleared six of these consent orders. In a recent Club analysis , we found that these regulatory updates were overall positive for the stock over the past five years. However, a lifting of the Fed’s asset cap is the big one. It would allow Wells Fargo to finally grow its assets again and help rake in more profits. The bank would be able to write more loans, take in more customer deposits, and explore other lines of business. That’s why all strategic attempts to appease regulators are welcome news for shareholders. To be sure, though, the Club largely sees any lifting of the Fed’s asset cap as more of a 2025 story. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance Conversely, the Club’s other bank stock, Morgan Stanley , has been lagging in 2024 — down 7% year to date. While making made a mysterious 4% push higher on March 4, the Club made a small sale the next day because no specific catalyst could be identified. Such a big move in the absence of any news tends to be unsustainable. The stock has dropped since then. Morgan Stanley’s underperformance was first spurred by a post-earnings slump in January when the firm disappointed shareholders with weak wealth management guidance. Management said at the time the bank was far from hitting management’s previously-held goal of 30% operating margins for the division. “When you get this kind of cautious commentary from a new CEO, my gut says [Ted Pick] is simply trying to lower expectations” to play the under promise, over deliver game, Jim Cramer said following the earnings release. “Plus, Morgan Stanley’s paying you to wait with that 4% yield, and they’re right in there buying with you thanks to their aggressive buyback.” The Club also still sees green shoots for the Wall Street behemoth’s long-dormant investment banking business. While IB was once a very profitable segment of Morgan Stanley, an uncertain macro environment and recession concerns have weighed on the overall deal-making environment — both in companies going public and in mergers and acquisitions activity. This month is a big one on the IPO front for Morgan Stanley, which is among the lead underwriters of the upcoming Reddit offering. It’s not only a high-profile deal with a lot of exposure for Morgan Stanley’s IB division, but the social media company is targeting a big valuation close to $6.5 billion. If the Morgan Stanley places the IPO correctly, Jim said there could be upside for the bank stock. In a Monday filing, Reddit said it aims to price shares in a range of $31 to $34 each in hopes of raising about $750 million. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, MS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
A combination file photo shows Wells Fargo, Citibank, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
Reuters
It’s been a year this week since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank sent shockwaves through the banking sector. While the crisis most directly affected the regionals, major U.S. financial institutions for most of 2023 also found their stocks under assault. Big banks, like Club holding Wells Fargo, were largely able to turn the corner. The question is still out on the smaller lenders.
Since taking over as CEO of Wells Fargo in 2019, Charlie Scharf has been cleaning up the bank. He’s cleared six consent orders tied to past misdeeds there that predated his tenure. Management has eight more to go, a source told CNBC , including one from the Federal Reserve about six years ago that caps the bank’s assets at $1.95 trillion. However, every order does not have to be cleared before the cap can be removed. Most recently, shares surged after a major penalty tied to Club name Wells Fargo’s 2016 fake accounts scandal was lifted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on Feb. 15. Wells Fargo’s 16% stock gain in 2024 makes it this year’s top performer among the biggest U.S. banks. For comparison, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are up nearly 11% and 6%, respectively, year to date. Fellow Club holding Morgan Stanley is down more than 6.5% in 2024. The KBW Bank Index is up 3.2% year-to-date. The S & P 500 index is up more than 7.5% in 2024. WFC .SPX,.BKX 5Y mountain Wells Fargo vs. S & P 500 vs. KBW Bank Index over 5 years The February OCC action is getting a lot of attention because that 2016 consent order was believed to be one of the main reasons the Fed imposed an asset cap on Wells Fargo in the first place. The cap curbs the bank’s capacity to write new loans. A consent order in banking is a legal agreement between a bank and a regulatory agency to address business practices without admitting or denying the changes. “That’s why I think investors really gravitated or rallied around this one getting lifted. Because even though they’ve already had a number of them lifted — and still have many more to go — this was kind of at the heart of the matter for them,” Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler senior banks analyst, told CNBC on Friday. “I think, at least psychologically, it led investors to believe ‘Okay, we’re finally getting closer to the finish line.’” Wells Fargo’s recent outperformance can be pinned on higher hopes that the Fed-imposed asset cap will be lifted sooner rather than later. Club analysts think this may be a 2025 event. While shareholders wait, here’s a look at the progress Scharf has made to clean up the bank’s act and how shares have reacted to consent order terminations and expirations along the way. Feb. 15, 2024: The 2016 consent order lifted by the OCC last month compelled the bank to revamp how it sells its retail products and services. The stock surged more than 7.2% on the announcement. Since then, the stock added more than 9.5% and hit a series of 52-week highs, including Thursday’s peak price of $57.68. “The OCC’s action is confirmation that we have effectively put in place new systems, processes, and controls to serve our customers differently today than we did a decade ago,” Scharf said in a statement last month. “It is our responsibility to ensure we continue to operate with these disciplines.” This cleared a big hurdle for Wells Fargo regarding the Fed’s balance sheet restrictions. Days later on Feb. 20, the Club decided to make a sale on that strength to right-size the portfolio. Wells Fargo had swelled to be our largest position at nearly 5% on recent gains. At the time, Jeff Marks, director of portfolio analysis for the Club, described the regulatory news as a “clear-cut win” for Wells Fargo. Once the Fed’s asset cap is gone, he added, this will assure more confidence in management’s ability to deliver a sustained 15% return on tangible common equity (TCE), Marks added. Dec. 20, 2022: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), a little over two years ago, terminated its 2016 consent order regarding student loan servicing misconduct. At the same time, Wells Fargo said it agreed to a $3.7 billion settlement with the CFPB regarding overdraft fees, auto loans, and mortgages. Shares fell 2% that day to $40.98 apiece. The stock began trending upwards in the year to follow, jumping 19% for all of 2023. The S & P 500 rose 26% last year while the KBW fell slightly Wells Fargo was able to notch gains over the period despite the regional bank fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March of last year, which sent tremors through the entire sector. Jan. 20, 2022: Wells Fargo said more than two years ago that an OCC consent order was removed that addressed add-on products that the bank offered to certain customers before 2015. The stock fell 1% to $55 apiece that day. Shares tumbled 14% in 2022, much less than the KBW’s 24% decline. 2022 was a terrible year for the overall market: The S & P 500 sank 19.4%. Sept. 9, 2021: Less than three years ago, a CFPB 2016 consent order around Wells Fargo’s retail sales practices expired. The bank stock was up 1.2% on the announcement, climbing to $44.36 apiece. By year-end 2021, shares experienced another 8% advance since the expiration news. Wells Fargo stock gained 59% for all of 2021 compared with the KWB’s 36% rise. The S & P 500 gained nearly 27% in 2021. Jan. 5, 2021: During the same year, Wells Fargo announced that an OCC consent order from 2015 had been terminated. This was related to the bank’s anti-money laundering compliance program. Shares jumped 2.8% that day to $30.35 apiece on the update. January 2020: There was another CFPB consent order that expired more than four years ago. However, the bank did not formally announce the action at the time. CNBC reached out to Wells Fargo for clarification, and a spokesperson confirmed that on Jan. 22 the consent order had expired. Wells Fargo shares plunged nearly 44% in 2020, which were the early days of the Covid pandemic. The KBW lost 14% in 2020. The S & P 500, which dropped 30% in 22 sessions in March 2020, ended that year up just over 16.3%. Bottom line Overall, we’re upbeat on continued efforts by Wells Fargo’s management to fix the bank’s previous misdeeds. Adapting to regulatory demands will push the bank closer to having its Fed-imposed asset cap lifted. Although the Club doubts whether it will happen this year, they are optimistic that once the bank’s growth is no longer restricted, shares will have more upside. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, MS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Wells Fargo bank signs in New Brighton, Minnesota.
Michael Siluk | UCG | Universal Images Group | Getty Images
Since taking over as CEO of Wells Fargo in 2019, Charlie Scharf has been cleaning up the bank.
Wells Fargo (WFC) had to make some tough calls to stay on course with its turnaround plan. It’s one of three industry developments that impact Wells and our other bank name, Morgan Stanley (MS). Wells Fargo said this week that more layoffs are on the horizon for 2024, as the bank doubles down on efficiency and cost cuts. Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley’s asset management division raised over $1 billion for growth investing , The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, in the latest sign its long-dormant deal-making business could start to show signs of life. At the same time, the banking industry is facing the prospect of fresh regulations that threaten to chip away at profits for both firms. Banks are wading through decades-high interest rates and higher funding costs as economic uncertainty grips the sector. The KBW Bank Index, which tracks the performance of the biggest U.S. bank stocks, is down 13.85% year-to-date, compared to the S & P 500 ‘s 19.91% gains since the start of 2023. While Jim Cramer recently described the sector as the laggard of the stock market, he maintains that the stocks of both firms are still a buy. With Morgan Stanley, in particular, Jim said shares should be purchased “aggressively” because of its great dividend yield and cheap valuation. Still, recent headlines shed light on how our financial names are pushing forward amid a tough operating environment. Cost cuts The news: During a Goldman Sachs conference Tuesday, Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf warned of large severance costs for the bank’s fourth quarter. “We’re looking at something like $750 million to a little less than a billion dollars of severance in the fourth quarter that we weren’t anticipating, just because we want to continue to focus on efficiency,” Scharf said. He added that the firm needs to get even “more aggressive” on managing headcount and is “not even close” to where it should be on efficiency. Wells Fargo has already laid off more than 227,000 staffers — roughly 4.7% of its workforce — this year, as of September. The chief executive also noted that the bank wants to continue allocating funds to build out the money-making areas of its business like capital markets. The Club’s take: Although layoffs are never an easy decision, management’s focus on cost cutting is necessary to improve Wells Fargo’s efficiency ratio – a gauge of the bank’s expenses relative to its revenue. Wells Fargo’s efficiency ratio has consistently improved in recent years, helped by various initiatives like significantly scaling back its U.S. mortgage business . Overall, Wells Fargo is a multi-year play for the Club as the bank continues to show further progress around its turnaround plan, which was implemented after financial regulators imposed a $1.95 trillion asset cap on the bank back in 2018. However, we maintain that lifting the cap is a “when, not if” scenario — one that should increase the bank’s balance sheet, allowing the firm to rake in more profits. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo year-to-date performance. Fundraising The news: Morgan Stanley Investment Management has raised almost $1.2 billion in funding for late-stage growth investing, news that the bank confirmed after The Journal originally broke the story. The bank’s asset management arm closed two different private-equity vehicles, surpassing its fundraising goal by approximately 40%, the bank said. The Club’s take: Although the investment may seem like a drop in the bucket for one of the nation’s largest banks – it manages around $1.4 trillion in assets – the move signals a more positive trajectory for the broader fundraising environment. Raising capital has been significantly more difficult since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in March 2022 and the blow up of SVB earlier this year, so any indication of a pick-up in investments could be beneficial for the overall deal-making environment. This would benefit Morgan Stanley’s languishing investment-banking business, which has slowed in recent quarters due to a muted initial-public-offering market and weak mergers-and-acquisitions activity. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley year-to-date performance. Regulation The news: On Wednesday, the heads of eight of the largest U.S. banks, including Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley, tried to convince lawmakers that proposed regulations, known as the Basel 3 endgame, will hurt not only their firms but everyday Americans, too. During an annual senate oversight hearing, the CEOs pushed back on new proposed rules — designed for U.S. banks with at least $100 billion in assets — that would raise the level of capital firms must hold to mitigate against future risk. “The rule would have predictable and harmful outcomes to the economy, markets, business of all sizes and American households,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said. The Club’s take: We’re optimistic that Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley would be able to adapt to any new rules because both are well capitalized, as indicated in the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests earlier this year. Although the Basel 3 endgame could hit net interest income for Morgan Stanley, any weakness should be offset by a more profitable investment-banking division. Additionally, Morgan Stanley’s outgoing CEO, James Gorman, told CNBC last month that the bank can handle “any form” of new rules regulators might implement. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, MS . See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
A combination file photo shows Wells Fargo, Citibank, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
Reuters
Wells Fargo (WFC) had to make some tough calls to stay on course with its turnaround plan. It’s one of three industry developments that impact Wells and our other bank name, Morgan Stanley (MS).
Bank stocks remain under pressure due to high-interest rates, as financial firms like Club holdings Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) kick off earnings season starting Friday. Like other big banks, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley have been caught in the throes of the central bank’s interest-rate-hiking campaign over the past 18 months. Both have been pulling back on lending to be more conservative with their capital as credit conditions have tightened — with a potentially negative impact on revenue streams and overall profits when the firms report earnings in the coming days. “Increasingly, I think that the only thing that can change things with either bank is the end of the tightening cycle so people will be less worried about credit woes,” Jim Cramer said Wednesday . As part of its effort to battle persistent inflation, the Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times since March 2022, with rates at their highest levels in 22 years . And on top of operating in a high-interest-rate environment, financial firms are still rebounding from the collapse of a string of regional lenders, starting with the shuttering of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March. Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are down on the year amid the difficult backdrop, falling 4.3% and 8.6%, respectively. The KBW Bank Index , a benchmark stock index of the banking sector, has lost more than 24% year-to-date. Still, both Club banks have solid fundamentals and diverse revenue streams that leave us bullish in the long term. Wells Fargo is set to report third-quarter results before the opening bell on Friday, while Morgan Stanley is slated to post results next Wednesday. Wells Fargo WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date performance For the three months ended Sept. 30, analysts expect Well Fargo to report revenue of $20.1 billion, compared with $19.5 billion during the same period a year prior, according to Refinitiv. Earnings-per-share should come in at $1.24, up 45% year-over-year, Refinitiv estimates showed. Wells Fargo’s cost-cutting measures and its forecast for its real estate loans will be front and center Friday. Out of the major U.S. banks, Wells Fargo has the largest exposure to the ailing commercial real estate market, an industry troubled by higher rates and near-record office vacancy levels. Offices represent roughly 22% of Wells Fargo’s outstanding commercial property loans and 3% of its whole loan book. In the bank’s July earnings report, CEO Charlie Scharf said Wells Fargo sustained “higher losses in commercial real estate, primarily in the office portfolio,” adding that while there have been “significant losses in our office portfolio-to-date, we are reserving [capital] for the weakness that we expect to play out in that market over time.” Wells Fargo “remains focused on making the company more efficient and has been reducing headcount” since the third quarter of 2020, Barclays analysts wrote in a recent note. In September, Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said the bank could slash headcount further, on top of nearly 40,000 layoffs over the past three years. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo slowed its pace of stock buybacks significantly over the past few quarters, even though the stock is at a lower price point and the bank remains well-capitalized. “My hope is that this Friday [Scharf] changes his mind when the company reports and it can sop up the excess stock,” Jim said. Scharf “has bought back 300 million shares, almost a tenth of the share count, since he took over in 2019,” Jim added. Morgan Stanley MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance For the three months ended Sept. 30, analysts expect Morgan Stanley to report revenue of $13.2 billion, up from $12.9 billion during the same period last year, according to Refinitiv. Earnings-per-share should fall 16% year-over-year, to $1.28. For the past several quarters, Morgan Stanley’s investment banking business – once crucial to its bottom line – has been lagging on macroeconomic uncertainty. Companies have pulled back on mergers and acquisitions amid growing concerns that a recession is on the horizon. Indeed, the value of global M & A plunged 44% in the first five months of 2023, according to data analytics firm GlobalData . During a recent conference, Morgan Stanley executives said that capital markets will likely improve in 2024, potentially setting up its investment banking division for a stronger year. The bank said its “more confident now than any time this year about an improved outlook for 2024.” Morgan Stanley has adapted to the struggling M & A and initial-public-offering markets by leaning more into wealth management, a strategy we think highlights the bank’s ability to deftly navigate a range of headwinds . “Morgan Stanley is doing everything it can to be less of a bank and more of a financial advisor,” Jim said Wednesday. And with Chief Executive Office James Gorman expected to retire early next year, we’ll be looking for any further guidance from the company on its succession plans. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, MS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
A combination file photo shows Wells Fargo, Citibank, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
Reuters
Bank stocks remain under pressure due to high-interest rates, as financial firms like Club holdings Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) kick off earnings season starting Friday.
With the banking sector facing a myriad of crosscurrents — including stricter government regulations, higher interest rates and scrutiny from U.S. rating agencies — financial stocks are looking cheap. But the Club is exercising caution when it comes to our two bank names: Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS). The KBW Bank Index , a benchmark stock index of the banking sector, has fallen more than 26% over the past six months amid ongoing investor unease following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Shares of Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley have lost 8.52% and 13.73%, respectively, during the same period. Although both firms have solid fundamentals and are affordable at current levels, we can’t recommend investors buy up more shares at this time given continued uncertainty over the health of the broader financial-services industry. “I can’t tell you to pull the trigger just yet [even] when both Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are as cheap as all get out,” Jim Cramer said during the Club’s August Monthly Meeting . Banking backdrop When Silicon Valley Bank and other regional lenders were forced to shut their doors earlier this year, the U.S. banking sector faced its biggest crisis of confidence since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. Tremors spread globally, with UBS Group (UBS) forced to take over embattled Swiss lender Credit Suisse a few months thereafter. Banks are also operating in a high-interest-rate environment. To combat decades-high inflation, the Federal Reserve has delivered 11 rate hikes since launching a monetary-policy-tightening campaign in March 2022. The central bank’s latest 25-basis-point hike last month took benchmark borrowing costs to their highest level in more than 22 years . To be sure, higher rates can be beneficial for banks. Profitability on loans often increases if the spread between what is paid on deposits and what is generated on loans widens. But institutions accustomed to years of the Fed’s dovish monetary policy had to readjust and manage risk when the central bank doubled down on tightening. That created complications for many, chief among them SVB. A sharp rise in rates also hurts investment banking, particularly at a big bank like Morgan Stanley. The Wall Street giant previously benefited from structuring initial public offerings for companies, along with laying the groundwork for mergers and acquisitions. But with borrowing costs higher for corporate clients, banks have seen investment-banking profits decline. At the same time, banks are facing scrutiny from U.S. rating agencies. Moody’s downgraded 10 small and mid-sized U.S. banks on August 7, while Bank of New York Mellon (BK) and State Street (STT) were put on watch. “U.S. banks continue to contend with interest rate and asset-liability management (ALM) risks with implications for liquidity and capital,” Moody’s said. S & P Global followed suit on Monday, citing challenging operating conditions for the regional banking sector, sending shares of many big banks tumbling. Amid all these challenges, U.S. regulators in late July proposed strengthening capital requirements for the country’s largest banks — a development that could eat into banks’ revenue streams if they’re forced to lend less in order to hold more capital. Still, big banks will ultimately be able to manage any new regulatory hurdles, Oppenheimer’s Chris Kotowski told CNBC. “Banks will adapt to capitals over time,” he said. Oppenheimer on Friday slashed its price targets for a slew of big banks, including Morgan Stanley, arguing that the group has yet to fully recover since the closure of SVB. Bottom line Broadly, there’s too much uncertainty right now for the Club to invest further in bank stocks. It’s very difficult to fairly value financial names and determine the ultimate return on average tangible common shareholders’ equity, or ROTCE, if banks are forced to pull back on lending. Investors look to ROTCE as a key metric in assessing a bank’s earnings potential and valuation multiple. “How can you put a price-to-earnings ratio on something that we don’t know what they’re going to earn?” Jim said last week. What we do know is that Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley both have strong capital positions with excess cash to return to shareholders, per the Fed’s stress test in June. With Morgan Stanley, there could be green shoots for investment banking. Jim has said there may be a pickup in mergers thanks to Big Tech, which could boost a long-dormant part of Morgan Stanley’s business. For Wells Fargo, the company is buying back the most stock of any of the big banks. And the firm continues to have a strong comeback narrative under the leadership of CEO Charles Scharf. “However, both Wells and Morgan Stanley can only be as strong as the weakest link. Without bank mergers [and] labor costs, there’s no way of knowing which banks they will be hostage to,” Jim said. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, MS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
A combination file photo shows Wells Fargo, Citibank, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
Reuters
With the banking sector facing a myriad of crosscurrents — including stricter government regulations, higher interest rates and scrutiny from U.S. rating agencies — financial stocks are looking cheap. But the Club is exercising caution when it comes to our two bank names: Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS).
The Club’s 10 things to watch Friday, August 18 1. Stocks are poised to open lower Friday, putting the S & P 500 on track for its third-straight week of losses. This is certainly a moment for investors to exercise patience, as we noted during the Investing Club’s Monthly Meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the market is finally in oversold territory, per the S & P 500 Short Range Oscillator. 2. Club name Estee Lauder (EL) on Friday posts a small quarterly profit, compared with market expectations of a loss. But the prestige beauty firm’s guidance for adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) for its fiscal year 2024 was in a range of $3.50 to $3.75, well below analysts’ forecasts for $4.88 a share, as travel retail in Asia remains challenged. Still, Estee Lauder expects to return to organic sales growth in fiscal 2024 and deliver sequentially improving margins throughout the year. Shares plummeted nearly 6% in premarket trading, to around $152 apiece. 3. Shares of Applied Materials (AMAT) are rising in premarket trading after the semiconductor-equipment maker topped expectations in its third quarter and provided an upbeat view of the fourth quarter. JPMorgan on Friday raises its price target on the stock to $165 a share, from $145, while maintaining a a buy-equivalent rating. 4. Strong earnings from off-price retailers continues, with Ross Stores (ROST) posting second-quarter EPS of $1.32, ahead of market estimates of $1.16 a share. Even so, the best operator in the space remains Club name TJX Companies (TJX), which delivered a strong quarterly beat and raise on Wednesday. 5. Oppenheimer lowers its price targets on a slate of big banks, including Goldman Sachs (to $461 a share, from $483), Citigroup (to $85 from $88) and Bank of America (to $49 from $52), but maintains a buy-equivalent rating on all three. Oppenheimer notes that the KBW Bank Index (KBX) fell about 30 percentage points relative to the market in the weeks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, and the group has yet to recover this underperformance despite stable fundamentals. 6. Will there be fireworks tonight after the closing bell when Club name Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports its earnings and provides an update on its medium-term targets? There’s universal caution here, even with the stock down more than 18% this month, but the market will have a full weekend to digest whatever the cybersecurity leader has to say. 7. Deere & Co. (DE) posts a big EPS beat of $10.20, compared with analysts’ forecasts for $8.19 a share, while raising its full-year outlook. 8. Club name Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly adding a new 2% fee on third-party sellers who use the ecommerce giant’s Seller Fulfilled Prime program, according to Bloomberg. That’s another step that would incrementally help its retail margins. 9. B. Riley on Friday upgrades Marvell Technology (MRVL) to a buy rating, from neutral, thanks to an “expected wave of AI-led growth.” The firm also raised its price target on Marvell to $75 a share, from $60. The chipmaker is scheduled to report quarterly results on Thursday. 10. Evercore ISI previews Club holding Apple ‘s (AAPL) upcoming iPhone 15 launch, set for September. The firm expects the new iPhone will be more evolutionary than revolutionary, but should still drive a so-called device refresh and higher average-selling prices. Historically, Apple tends to outperform the market into its launch events, but that hasn’t been the case so far this year. Sign up for Jim Cramer’s Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free . (See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
1. Stocks are poised to open lower Friday, putting the S&P 500 on track for its third-straight week of losses. This is certainly a moment for investors to exercise patience, as we noted during the Investing Club’s Monthly Meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the market is finally in oversold territory, per the S&P 500 Short Range Oscillator.
2. Club name Estee Lauder (EL) on Friday posts a small quarterly profit, compared with market expectations of a loss. But the prestige beauty firm’s guidance for adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) for its fiscal year 2024 was in a range of $3.50 to $3.75, well below analysts’ forecasts for $4.88 a share, as travel retail in Asia remains challenged. Still, Estee Lauder expects to return to organic sales growth in fiscal 2024 and deliver sequentially improving margins throughout the year. Shares plummeted nearly 6% in premarket trading, to around $152 apiece.
3. Shares of Applied Materials (AMAT) are rising in premarket trading after the semiconductor-equipment maker topped expectations in its third quarter and provided an upbeat view of the fourth quarter. JPMorgan on Friday raises its price target on the stock to $165 a share, from $145, while maintaining a a buy-equivalent rating.
4. Strong earnings from off-price retailers continues, with Ross Stores (ROST) posting second-quarter EPS of $1.32, ahead of market estimates of $1.16 a share. Even so, the best operator in the space remains Club name TJX Companies (TJX), which delivered a strong quarterly beat and raise on Wednesday.
5. Oppenheimer lowers its price targets on a slate of big banks, including Goldman Sachs (to $461 a share, from $483), Citigroup (to $85 from $88) and Bank of America (to $49 from $52), but maintains a buy-equivalent rating on all three. Oppenheimer notes that the KBW Bank Index (KBX) fell about 30 percentage points relative to the market in the weeks after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, and the group has yet to recover this underperformance despite stable fundamentals.
6. Will there be fireworks tonight after the closing bell when Club name Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports its earnings and provides an update on its medium-term targets? There’s universal caution here, even with the stock down more than 18% this month, but the market will have a full weekend to digest whatever the cybersecurity leader has to say.
7. Deere & Co. (DE) posts a big EPS beat of $10.20, compared with analysts’ forecasts for $8.19 a share, while raising its full-year outlook.
8. Club nameAmazon (AMZN) is reportedly adding a new 2% fee on third-party sellers who use the ecommerce giant’s Seller Fulfilled Prime program, according to Bloomberg. That’s another step that would incrementally help its retail margins.
9. B. Riley on Friday upgradesMarvell Technology (MRVL) to a buy rating, from neutral, thanks to an “expected wave of AI-led growth.” The firm also raised its price target on Marvell to $75 a share, from $60. The chipmaker is scheduled to report quarterly results on Thursday.
10. Evercore ISI previews Club holding Apple‘s (AAPL) upcoming iPhone 15 launch, set for September. The firm expects the new iPhone will be more evolutionary than revolutionary, but should still drive a so-called device refresh and higher average-selling prices. Historically, Apple tends to outperform the market into its launch events, but that hasn’t been the case so far this year.
(See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)
As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER. NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., during a Bloomberg Television at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference in New York, US, on Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Goldman Sachs is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings before the opening bell Tuesday.
Here’s what Wall Street expects:
Earnings: $8.10 per share, 25% lower than a year earlier, according to Refinitiv.
Revenue: $12.79 billion, 1.1% lower than a year earlier.
Trading Revenue: Fixed Income $4.16 billion, Equities $2.9 billion, per StreetAccount.
Investing Banking Revenue: $1.44 billion
How did Goldman’s traders perform last quarter?
The answer to that question will determine whether Goldman exceeds or misses expectations for the first three months of this year.
Unlike its more diversified rivals, Goldman gets the majority of its revenue from Wall Street activities including trading and investment banking. With the advisory business remaining subdued because the IPO window remains mostly shut, it’s up to traders to pick up the slack.
Heading into the quarter, analysts wondered whether turmoil during March — in which two American banks failed and a global investment bank was forced to merge with a longtime rival — would provide a good or bad backdrop to trading.
That question was seemingly answered by JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, both of which beat estimates in part because of better-than-expected fixed income trading. Goldman has one of the biggest bond shops on Wall Street, so expectations are high.
So far this earnings season, big banks have mostly outperformed their smaller peers, helped by an influx of deposits after Silicon Valley Bank’s meltdown. But since retail banking plays a small — and probably shrinking — role at Goldman, much more focus will be on how trading and investment banking fared, and what expectations are for later this year.
Separately, analysts will want to hear what has come of CEO David Solomon’s proclamation in February that Goldman was weighing “strategic alternatives” for its consumer platforms business. That has been interpreted as potentially selling off the GreenSky business it acquired recently or offloading credit-card partnerships with Apple and others.
And they’ll likely ask for details about Goldman’s part in helping Apple offer new savings accounts; the product launched with a higher interest rate than the bank’s own Marcus product has.
Goldman shares have dipped 1.1% this year before Tuesday, a better showing than the nearly 17% decline of the KBW Bank Index.
David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., during an event on the sidelines on day three of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday, Jan. 19, 2023.
Stefan Wermuth | Bloomberg | Getty Images
When David Solomon was chosen to succeed Lloyd Blankfein as Goldman Sachs CEO in early 2018, a spasm of fear ran through the bankers working on a modest enterprise known as Marcus.
The man who lost out to Solomon, Harvey Schwartz, was one of several original backers of the firm’s foray into consumer banking and was often seen pacing the floor in Goldman’s New York headquarters where it was being built. Would Solomon kill the nascent project?
The executives were elated when Solomon soon embraced the business.
Their relief was short-lived, however. That’s because many of the decisions Solomon made over the next four years — along with aspects of the firm’s hard-charging, ego-driven culture — ultimately led to the collapse of Goldman’s consumer ambitions, according to a dozen people with knowledge of the matter.
The idea behind Marcus — the transformation of a Wall Street powerhouse into a Main Street player that could take on giants such as Jamie Dimon’s JPMorgan Chase — captivated the financial world from the start. Within three years of its 2016 launch, Marcus — a nod to the first name of Goldman’s founder — attracted $50 billion in valuable deposits, had a growing lending business and had emerged victorious from intense competition among banks to issue a credit card to Apple’s many iPhone users.
But as Marcus morphed from a side project to a focal point for investors hungry for a growth story, the business rapidly expanded and ultimately buckled under the weight of Solomon’s ambitions. Late last year, Solomon capitulated to demands to rein in the business, splitting it apart in a reorganization, killing its inaugural loan product and shelving an expensive checking account.
The episode comes at a sensitive time for Solomon. More than four years into his tenure, the CEO faces pressure from an unlikely source — disaffected partners of his own company, whose leaks to the press in the past year accelerated the bank’s strategy pivot and revealed simmering disdain for his high-profile DJ hobby.
Goldman shares have outperformed bank stock indexes during Solomon’s tenure, helped by the strong performance of its core trading and investment banking operations. But investors aren’t rewarding Solomon with a higher multiple on his earnings, while nemesis Morgan Stanley has opened up a wider lead in recent years, with a price to tangible book value ratio roughly double that of Goldman.
That adds to the stakes for Solomon’s second-ever investor day conference Tuesday, during which the CEO will provide details on his latest plan to build durable sources of revenue growth. Investors want an explanation of what went wrong at Marcus, which was touted at Goldman’s previous investor day in 2020, and evidence that management has learned lessons from the costly episode.
“We’ve made a lot of progress, been flexible when needed, and we’re looking forward to updating our investors on that progress and the path ahead,” Goldman communications chief Tony Fratto said in a statement. “It’s clear that many innovations since our last investor day are paying off across our businesses and generating returns for shareholders.”
The architects of Marcus couldn’t have predicted its journey when the idea was birthed offsite in 2014 at the vacation home of then-Goldman president Gary Cohn. While Goldman is a leader in advising corporations, heads of state and the ultrawealthy, it didn’t have a presence in retail banking.
They gave it a distinct brand, in part to distance it from negative perceptions of Goldman after the 2008 crisis, but also because it would allow them to spin off the business as a standalone fintech player if they wanted to, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
“Like a lot of things that Goldman starts, it began not as some grand vision, but more like, ‘Here’s a way we can make some money,’” one of the people said.
Ironically, Cohn himself was against the retail push and told the bank’s board that he didn’t think it would succeed, according to people with knowledge of the matter. In that way, Cohn, who left in 2017 to join the Trump administration, was emblematic of many of the company’s old guard who believed that consumer finance simply wasn’t in Goldman’s DNA.
Once Solomon took over, in 2018, he began a series of corporate reorganizations that would influence the path of the embryonic business.
From its early days, Marcus, run by ex-Discover executive Harit Talwar and Goldman veteran Omer Ismail, had been purposefully sheltered from the rest of the company. Talwar was fond of telling reporters that Marcus had the advantages of being a nimble startup within a 150-year-old investment bank.
The first of Solomon’s reorganizations came early in his tenure, when he folded it into the firm’s investment management division. Ismail and others had argued against the move to Solomon, feeling that it would hinder the business.
Solomon’s rationale was that all of Goldman’s businesses catering to individuals should be in the same division, even if most Marcus customers had only a few thousand dollars in loans or savings, while the average private wealth client had $50 million in investments.
In the process, the Marcus leaders lost some of their ability to call their own shots on engineering, marketing and personnel matters, in part because of senior hires made by Solomon. Marcus engineering resources were pulled in different directions, including into a project to consolidate its technology stack with that of the broader firm, a step that Ismail and Talwar disagreed with.
“Marcus became a shiny object,” said one source. “At Goldman, everyone wants to leave their mark on the new shiny thing.”
Besides the deposits business, which has attracted $100 billion so far and essentially prints money for the company, the biggest consumer success has been its rollout of the Apple Card.
What is less well-known is that Goldman won the Apple account in part because it agreed to terms that other, established card issuers wouldn’t. After a veteran of the credit-card industry named Scott Young joined Goldman in 2017, he was flabbergasted at one-sided elements of the Apple deal, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
“Who the f— agreed to this?” Young exclaimed in a meeting shortly after learning of the details of the deal, according to a person present.
Some of the customer servicing aspects of the deal ultimately added to Goldman’s unexpectedly high costs for the Apple partnership, the people said. Goldman executives were eager to seal the deal with the tech giant, which happened before Solomon became CEO, they added.
Young declined to comment about the outburst.
The rapid growth of the card, which was launched in 2019, is one reason the consumer division saw mounting financial losses. Heading into an economic downturn, Goldman had to set aside reserves for future losses, even if they don’t happen. The card ramp-up also brought regulatory scrutiny on the way it dealt with customer chargebacks, CNBC reported last year.
Beneath the smooth veneer of the bank’s fintech products, which were gaining traction at the time, there were growing tensions: disagreements with Solomon over products, acquisitions and branding, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about internal Goldman matters.
Ismail, who was well-regarded internally and had the ability to push back against Solomon, lost some battles and held the line on others. For instance, Marcus officials had to entertain potential sponsorships with Rihanna, Reese Witherspoon and other celebrities, as well as study whether the Goldman brand should replace that of Marcus.
The CEO was said to be enamored of the rise of fast-growing digital players such as Chime and believed that Goldman needed to offer a checking account, while Marcus leaders didn’t think the bank had advantages there and should continue as a more focused player.
One of the final straws for Ismail came when Solomon, in his second reorganization, made his strategy chief, Stephanie Cohen, co-head of the consumer and wealth division in September 2020. Cohen, who is known as a tireless executive, would be even more hands-on than her predecessor, Eric Lane, and Ismail felt that he deserved the promotion.
Within months, Ismail left Goldman, sending shock waves through the consumer division and deeply angering Solomon. Ismail and Talwar declined to comment for this article.
Ismail’s exit ushered in a new, ultimately disastrous era for Marcus, a dysfunctional period that included a steep ramp-up in hiring and expenses, blown product deadlines and waves of talent departures.
Now run by two former tech executives with scant retail experience, ex-Uber executive Peeyush Nahar and Swati Bhatia, formerly of payments giant Stripe, Marcus was, ironically, also cursed by Goldman’s success on Wall Street in 2021.
The pandemic-fueled boom in public listings, mergers and other deals meant that Goldman was en route to a banner year for investment banking, its most profitable ever. Goldman should plow some of those volatile earnings into more durable consumer banking revenues, the thinking went.
“People at the firm including David Solomon were like, ‘Go, go, go!’” said a person with knowledge of the period. “We have all these excess profits, you go create recurring revenues.”
In April 2022, the bank widened testing of its checking account to employees, telling staff that it was “only the beginning of what we hope will soon become the primary checking account for tens of millions of customers.”
But as 2022 ground on, it became clear that Goldman was facing a very different environment. The Federal Reserve ended a decade-plus era of cheap money by raising interest rates, casting a pall over capital markets. Among the six biggest American banks, Goldman Sachs was most hurt by the declines, and suddenly Solomon was pushing to cut expenses at Marcus and elsewhere.
Amid leaks that Marcus was hemorrhaging money, Solomon finally decided to pull back sharply on the effort that he had once championed to investors and the media. His checking account would be repurposed for wealth management clients, which would save money on marketing costs.
Now it is Ismail, who joined a Walmart-backed fintech called One in early 2021, who will be taking on the banking world with a direct-to-consumer digital startup. His former employer Goldman would largely content itself with being a behind-the-scenes player, providing its technology and balance sheet to established brands.
For a company with as much self-regard as Goldman, it would mark a sharp comedown from the vision held by Solomon only months earlier.
“David would say, ‘We’re building the business for the next 50 years, not for today,’” said one former Goldman insider. “He should’ve listened to his own sound bite.”
The top picks of Morgan Stanley bank analyst Betsy Graseck are looking undervalued as the market rallies, she said Wednesday in a report. The shares of Graseck’s three overweight-rated banks, JPMorgan Chase , Wells Fargo and Regions Financial , have underperformed versus the S & P 500 since last month, when the companies released fourth-quarter results , she said. “Our most preferred stocks RF, WFC & JPM have largely been left out of the current market rally and look undervalued for their asset sensitivity and skew to quality,” Graseck said. Graseck is among the analysts who have generally urged caution on banks, citing the expectation that loan losses will rise this year as the economy slows or even enters a recession. But bank stocks have caught a bid in early 2023, along with 2022’s other beaten-down sectors, with the KBW Bank Index up 11.5% year to date. .BKX YTD mountain 24-company KBW Bank Index Investors’ attention will likely shift from 2023 guidance to how the companies perform on net interest income and provisions for loan losses, she said. Her three top picks could rise a median 24%, about 4% more than other large-cap banks in her coverage in a base-case scenario, she said. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo named Bank of America his top pick for 2023 on expectations for “near best-in-class” growth in net interest income, profit margins and earnings. The stock should merit a higher multiple this year and can climb 55% from its price on Tuesday, Mayo wrote in a note published that day. The country’s second biggest bank by assets exemplifies Mayo’s bull thesis for banks, which is that they will weather the impending economic downturn better than expected because the industry has spent the past decade reducing risk across businesses. “As much as any bank, it is ‘showtime’ for BAC if, as we expect, the onslaught of higher rates leads to greater NII growth, more business volume demonstrates model scalability, and slower economic growth further proves BAC’s resiliency after years of de-risking,” Mayo wrote. The veteran bank analyst’s call clashes with several of his peers, who published bearish notes last month that cited expectations for a U.S. recession in 2023. Higher reserves for bad loans, rising expenses and funding costs for deposits, and moribund results in wealth management and investment banking were predicted by the pessimistic analysts. To be fair, Bank of America was also Mayo’s top pick at the start of 2022. After a strong start to the year, investors bailed on banks amid worries that an impending recession will lead to higher defaults. Shares of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank fell 26% last year, worse than the 15% decline of rival JPMorgan Chase and the 24% drop of the KBW Bank Index . “Our view is that this stemmed from recency bias from the Global Financial Crisis and ignores what amounts to perhaps the greatest amount of de-risking of any large bank, esp. based on the Fed stress test,” Mayo wrote of last year’s stock decline. Mayo’s other top picks are U.S. Bancorp and PNC Financial , both of which should beat consensus earnings by at least 6% over the next two years, Mayo wrote. His favored banks should be able to address investors’ concerns better than competitors by holding onto gains in net interest income, exhibit good expense control and “superior” credit quality, he wrote. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Banks finally got a long-awaited boost to interest rates this year after a decade of toiling in a low-rate environment. It didn’t go as planned. A year ago, big lenders including Bank of America and Wells Fargo were the top picks of the analyst community because they were expected to benefit from higher rates . Loan growth coupled with vast deposit bases would drive gains in interest income as the Federal Reserve hiked rates, the thinking went. While that trend played out, the bull case was spoiled by inflation at four-decade highs, which forced the Fed to boost rates more than expected , triggering concerns of a recession. In a downturn, banks are exposed to surging loan defaults, reduced loan demand and write-downs on assets. That’s why the KBW Bank Index slumped 23% through mid-December, worse than the 17% decline of the S & P 500 and on track for its worst year since 2008. “The interest rate-trade is getting long in the tooth, and meanwhile there are uncertainties on deposits, both on costs and outflows,” David Konrad, a KBW analyst, told CNBC in a phone interview. He cut his recommendation on the sector to market weight from overweight last week. Net interest income growth will probably peak in this year’s fourth quarter at 30% and slump to just 5% by the end of 2023, Konrad said in a Dec. 13 note. Among banks, he favors Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley because “they have already been operating in a recession” and their capital markets businesses will rebound before retail banking does, he said in the interview. Multiple headwinds Headwinds faced by banks next year include expectations for shrinking loan margins in the second half, higher reserves for bad loans, rising funding costs for deposits, higher expenses due to wage inflation and continued pressure on mortgage , wealth management and investment banking revenue, according to Raymond James analysts led by Daniel Tamayo. “With many of our positive catalysts from 2021-22 played out, we believe 2023 will be volatile for bank stocks, with the best performers those who can withstand headwinds for the industry,” Tamayo said in a Dec. 15 note. Tamayo favors smaller banks over megacaps for their lower valuations, less strict regulatory oversight and the possibility of mergers. He has a strong buy rating on Cadence Bank , Huntington Bancshares , First Republic and Wintrust Financial. Hold off until 2024? In that vein, Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck advised that it was too early to go long large cap banks. Investors should pile into the sector only after loan delinquencies peak or the Fed ends its balance sheet-shrinking campaign known as quantitative tightening, she said in a Dec. 6 note. “It’s not enough for the Fed to just slow or stop hiking rates, it has to end QT to get more positive on the banks,” Graseck said. That’s because “we expect that credit is likely to surprise more negatively than positively over the next 12 months as the economy deals with still-high inflation, higher borrowing costs” and rising joblessness, she added. The wait could be long: Morgan Stanley economists see QT ending in the first half of 2024. The bull case On the other hand, the group could rally next year if the economy manages a soft landing or mild recession, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim H. Poonawala said in a Dec. 11 note. Much of the downside for the industry is already embedded in current valuations, according to Baird analyst David George. That could set up the inverse of 2022 – a year in which pessimism leads to better-than-expected stock returns. Veteran analyst Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo said that bank stocks could pop 50% in 2023 by proving their resilience in a recession. That’s because they’ve been de-risked over more than a decade of increasingly stringent financial regulations. “We think banks should perform better in an upcoming recession than for any other in modern history,” Mayo said in a Dec. 14 note. “What seems most underappreciated is the degree that bank structural changes over the past decade prepare the industry for the cyclical challenges ahead.” His top picks are Bank of America, U.S. Bancorp and PNC Financial Services . The three lenders are prepared to navigate a downturn with strong credit quality, lower expenses and higher efficiency, he said. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Bank Of America CEO Brian Moynihan is interviewed by Jack Otter during “Barron’s Roundtable” at Fox Business Network Studios on January 09, 2020 in New York City.
John Lamparski | Getty Images
Bank of America said Monday that quarterly profit and revenue topped expectations on better-than-expected fixed income trading and gains in interest income, thanks to choppy markets and rising rates
Here’s what the company reported compared with what analysts were expecting, based on Refinitiv data:
Earnings per share: 81 cents vs. 77 cents expected
Revenue: $24.61 billion adjusted vs. $23.57 billion expected
Bank of America said in a release that third-quarter profit fell 8% to $7.1 billion, or 81 cents a share, as the company booked a $898 million provision for credit losses in the quarter. Revenue net of interest expense jumped to $24.61 billion, on a non-GAAP basis.
Shares of the bank rose 6.1%.
Bank of America, led by CEO Brian Moynihan, was supposed to be one of the main beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve’s rate-boosting campaign. That is playing out, as lenders including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo are producing more revenue as rates rise, allowing them to generate more profit from their core activities of taking in deposits and making loans.
“Our U.S. consumer clients remained resilient with strong, although slower growing, spending levels and still maintained elevated deposit amounts,” Moynihan said in the release. “Across the bank, we grew loans by 12% over the last year as we delivered the financial resources to support our clients.”
Net interest income at the bank jumped 24% to $13.87 billion in the quarter, topping the $13.6 billion StreetAccount estimate, thanks to higher rates in the quarter and an expanding book of loans.
Net interest margin, a key profitability metric for bank investors, widened to 2.06% from 1.86% in the second quarter of this year, edging out analysts’ estimate of 2.00%.
Fixed income trading revenue surged 27% from a year earlier to $2.6 billion, handily exceeding the $2.24 billion estimate. That more than offset equities revenue that dropped 4% to $1.5 billion, below the $1.61 billion estimate.
Like its Wall Street rivals, investment banking revenue posted a steep decline, falling about 46% to $1.2 billion, slightly exceeding the $1.13 billion estimate.
Of note, the bank’s evolving provision for credit losses showed the company was beginning to factor in a more harsh economic outlook.
While Bank of America released $1.1 billion in reserves in the year-earlier period, in the third quarter the firm had to build reserves by $378 million. That, in addition to a 12% increase in net charge-offs for bad loans to $520 million in the quarter, accounted for the $898 million provision.
Analysts have said that they want to see bank executives factor in the possibility of an impending recession before investors return to the beaten-down sector. Bank of America shares hit a new 52-week low last week and have fallen 29% this year through Friday, worse than the 26% decline of the KBW Bank Index.