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Tag: Kamile Uray

  • Ethereum Loses Structure After $3,220 Rejection — Is This Distribution Or Just The First Crack?

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    Ethereum has taken a sharp turn after facing a firm rejection at the $3,220 level, with price breaking structure and slipping into a weaker posture. The speed of the drop and lack of strong buying interest raise an important question for traders: Is this merely an early warning sign within a broader uptrend, or the start of a deeper distribution phase that could pressure ETH further in the near term?

    Rejection At $3,220 Signals Distribution, Not A Shakeout

    Crypto analyst PEPE is Friend highlighted that Ethereum’s sharp rejection at the $3,220 level was deliberate rather than random. The drop was clean, with key structure breaking down, selling pressure accelerating, and price quickly flushing toward the $3,106 area, aligning with a classic distribution behavior rather than a simple shakeout.

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    Assessing the current price reaction, there are still no signs of a true reversal. The bounce has been notably weak, trading volume remains thin, and buyers have yet to show a strong commitment. Instead of signaling renewed bullish momentum, the move higher appears to be a technical pullback within a broader weakening structure.

    Source: Chart from PEPE is Friend on X

    The key technical zone remains well-defined. ETH is trading below the former support band between $3,170 and $3,200. As long as the price stays below this range, any upside move is likely to be viewed as a selling opportunity rather than the start of a sustained recovery. 

    When this price action is viewed alongside Ethereum spot ETF data, the picture becomes clearer. While ETF flows remain positive daily, they lack strong momentum or a standout confirmation day. Capital appears to be absorbed rather than aggressively deployed, suggesting institutional demand is not yet strong enough to drive a decisive breakout. Until that changes, sellers are expected to remain in control below the $3,170–$3,200 resistance zone.

    Ethereum Slips Below $3,062 As Bears Regain Short-Term Control

    In an X post, Kamile Uray noted that Ethereum has closed below the $3,062 level, shifting attention toward the next major downside zone at $2,623. This level is now critical, as holding above it could allow ETH to stabilize and attempt another recovery move.

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    On the upside, a clean break above the pink-box resistance near $3,445 would activate bullish formations such as a cup-and-handle or an ascending triangle, opening the door for a move toward the $3,894 area.

    Further strength would be confirmed if ETH manages to close above the $3,661 high, which would mark the first higher high on the daily chart relative to the previous downtrend, improving the bullish outlook. Still, $3,894 remains a key level, as it aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the last decline.

    On the downside, a clear break below the $2,623 low would expose ETH to deeper losses, with the $2,274–$2,104 zone emerging as the next major support area. This region hosts a potential bullish “Libra” reversal setup, and Ethereum could once again attempt a bounce toward its previous all-time high if reversal confirmation appears there.

    Ethereum
    ETH trading at $2,960 on the 1D chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

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  • Bitcoin Hovering In A Descending Range, But Alts Are Quietly Gaining Momentum

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    Bitcoin is holding steady within a descending range, showing little directional conviction, while several altcoins are quietly building strength. As the market consolidates, these smaller assets could hint at early upside moves before BTC breaks out.

    Key Resistance In Focus: $90,588 And The Descending Trendline

    According to a recent update by Kamile Uray, there are no changes in the key levels being tracked on the daily chart, as the focus remains on the $90,588 level and the descending blue trendline. Unless BTC can close above these levels, the current decline may continue. Any upward moves below the blue descending trend are considered corrective rather than a trend reversal.

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    The first support zone to monitor during the decline is between $83,822 and $82,477. A daily close below $82,477 would signal a continuation of the downtrend and could open the door toward the $74,496–$71,237 zone, marked by the blue box. This lower zone is viewed as a strong support area where buyers may step in.

    BTC still below a descending trendline | Source: Chart from Kamile Uray on X

    Thus, a clear reversal confirmation is key before considering any significant upward move. Once confirmed, a rally toward the blue descending trendline could follow, testing resistance levels along the way.

    For the uptrend to resume decisively, BTC would need to close above $90,588 and break the descending resistance. Meanwhile, a daily close above $94,130 would confirm that the blue descending trend has been broken, potentially signaling a shift to sustained bullish momentum.

    LTF Moves Show Less Impulse, But Structure Holds

    Crypto analyst The Penguin noted that the lower time frame (LTF) is showing slightly less impulsive action, though the overall count remains unchanged. The recent moves on the LTF appear more like noise and do not affect the broader wave count, and confidence in a leading diagonal for wave 1 remains intact.

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    Putting Elliott Wave analysis aside for a moment and leaning on standard technical analysis, BTC is clearly respecting a defined range. As a result, a minor deviation toward the 0.886 level marked on the chart is being closely watched as a potential entry point.

    Bullish confirmation will come if BTC manages to close and hold above $90,500, which would invalidate the current bearish scenario and signal the potential for a more sustained upward trend. Until then, the short-term fluctuations are considered normal noise, especially with the yearly open approaching.

    On the altcoin side, momentum appears to be holding, suggesting potential upside. Outperformance is already visible in altcoins like XPL, indicating that while BTC consolidates, some alts are starting to push higher.

    Bitcoin
    BTC trading at $87,481 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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