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Tag: Kamala Harris poll

  • Even The GOP’s Own Polling Shows Kamala Harris Leading In Michigan And Pennsylvania

    Even The GOP’s Own Polling Shows Kamala Harris Leading In Michigan And Pennsylvania

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    The GOP own internal polling from the Senate Leadership Fund shows Kamala Harris leading Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

    A summary of the Senate and presidential polling numbers from a memo:

    Texas: Cruz +1 (48-47), Trump +5 (50-45)
    Wisconsin: Baldwin +1 (46-45), Trump

    +1 (46-45)
    Pennsylvania: Casey +2 (48-46), Harris +1 (49-48)
    Montana: Sheehy +4 (48-44), Trump +17 (57-40)
    Arizona: Gallego +5 (47-42), TIE pres (47-47)
    Ohio: Brown +6 (45-39), Trump +4 (47-43)
    Nevada: Rosen +7 (43-36), TIE pres (46/46)
    Maryland: Alsobrooks +7 (48-41), Harris +29 (61-32)
    Michigan: Slotkin +8 (46-38), Harris +3 (45-42)

    Internal Republican polling polling numbers are based on a rosy turnout scenario for the GOP, so the takeaway from these numbers is that even with a good Republican turnout model, Trump is still trailing in two of the three blue wall states.

    If Trump loses, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he loss the election.

    Except for Jon Tester in Montana, Senate Democratic incumbents are more than holding their own. The Republican polling memo makes it clear that the GOP is counting on Trump winning in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania and pulling the Republican Senate candidates over the finish lines. If Trump loses these states, the GOP Senate candidates are probably cooked too.

    Add in the fact that Republicans could lose a Senate seat in Nebraska to an Independent, and the GOP control of the Senate is far from a given. If Ted Cruz gets upset in Texas, Republican dreams of Senate control if Harris wins the election will dead.

    If the Republican internal polls show Harris leading in key swing states, it is a bad sign for the GOP and Trump just weeks before election day.

    To comment on this story, join us on Reddit.

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    Jason Easley

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  • Kamala Harris Has Erased Trump’s Lead On The Economy And Leadership

    Kamala Harris Has Erased Trump’s Lead On The Economy And Leadership

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    Two big issues for Trump, the economy and the perception of strong leadership, have now become tied with Kamala Harris in a new poll.

    Puck reported on their new poll with Echelon Insights:

    A new survey from Echelon Insights, which is partnering with Puck for exclusive polling on the 2024 electorate, suggests that the tolerant-but-tough message is working. In one of the few surveys conducted entirely after the D.N.C., a poll of likely voters conducted from Friday to Sunday found Harris running about even with Trump on a range of attributes that previously favored the Republican nominee.

    On the question of which candidate is “a strong leader,” Trump leads Harris by only one point, 48 percent to 47 percent. Who would do better at “keeping the country safe”? Again, Trump leads by one point, 47-46. “Good at managing a crisis”? They’re tied, 46-46. Harris is also trailing Trump by only a single point (48-47) on the question of which candidate “would make our economy work better.” On pretty much every single question about strength or toughness—and on questions where Republicans might typically lead—Harris has essentially erased Joe Biden’s deficits against Trump.

    Trump has been trying to sell himself as a strong leader for years. Until Harris got in the race, Trump had led Biden on the economy. If voters no longer view Trump as a strong leader or strong on the economy, then why would anyone outside of the Republican Party vote for him?

    It is just one poll, but it indicates that the Democratic Party was successful with its convention. Voters view Harris as even with Trump in many areas where Republicans were hoping that the ex-president would have an advantage.

    Outside of the border, it is difficult to see where Trump has much of an advantage on the issues. If other polling confirms these results, the Trump campaign will likely focus on personal attacks on Harris that aren’t working.

    If Kamala Harris takes the lead on the economy, it would put Democrats in a good position to win in November.

     

    Jason Easley
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    Jason Easley

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