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Tag: Kalshi

  • Kalshi App Gains Ground on Sportsbooks Before Super Bowl

    A newcomer to the sports betting scene has jumped into the limelight right before the year’s biggest game. Kalshi, a small-time player next to big-name sportsbooks, saw a big jump in people downloading its mobile app in January. It was ahead of well-known brands like DraftKings and FanDuel as the Super Bowl got closer.

    Kalshi Outpaces Sportsbook Giants in January Download Race

    Based on numbers from Apptopia, an app analytics company, Kalshi’s app saw over 3 million downloads in the US last month. This number tops the combined January downloads of DraftKings and FanDuel, reaching a growth level neither traditional sportsbook has ever hit in one month. Just a few months before, when the NFL season kicked off in August, Kalshi’s downloads were much lower than those of its rivals, reported Bloomberg.

    The surge’s timing stands out. Sports betting interest hits its peak during football season, with the Super Bowl as the main event. Industry projections indicate that traditional sportsbooks will handle a record $1.76 billion in bets on this year’s championship game between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. Prediction markets, though, are growing even quicker. H2 Gambling Capital experts expect platforms like Kalshi to draw about $630 million in Super Bowl-related trading, making up most of the year-over-year growth linked to the event.

    Kalshi’s Exchange-Style Betting Tests the Boundaries of US Gambling Rules

    Kalshi’s quick rise has a strong connection to its regulatory position. Unlike sportsbooks, which must deal with different gambling laws in each state, Kalshi works under federal supervision from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Its contracts are seen as financial tools instead of bets, letting the platform offer sports-related markets across the country, even in states where you cannot bet on sports on your phone. However, Apptopia data shows the app is popular in all states, which means users pick it because they like how it works, not just to get around local rules.

    The platform works differently from sportsbooks. Rather than betting against users, Kalshi pairs them up and takes a cut of each transaction. This marketplace approach has allowed it to expand into non-sports areas like elections and economic data, though sports markets have seen the most action since football kicked off.

    The company’s growth has hit some snags. A number of state regulators have tried to limit Kalshi’s sports offerings, with legal battles still going on in places like Massachusetts. Meanwhile, the NFL has stopped prediction market firms from running ads during the Super Bowl, pointing to worries about fair play and partnership rules.Big betting companies are paying attention. DraftKings and FanDuel have rolled out their own apps for making predictions in some states, but so far, not many people have downloaded them.

    Silvia Pavlof

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  • Kalshi Promo Code AMNY: Get $10 Sign-Up Bonus for NBA Predictions – amNewYork

    Note: if you purchase something through one of our affiliate links, Schneps Media may earn a commission.

    Photo Credit: Craig Dudek

    Start making predictions on the NBA, NFL, NHL, college basketball and other sports with Kalshi promo code AMNY. New customers who take advantage of this offer will have options throughout the week. Click here to start signing up.

     

    Create an account and start with $100 worth of trades on sports, politics, culture, crypto, climate and more. This will unlock a $10 sign-up bonus.

    Kalshi is changing the game for sports fans. New users can make predictions on individual games like Bucks-Thunder, Knicks-Nets, Hornets-Cavaliers and Grizzlies-Hawks. Not to mention, there are options for long-term predictions like the NBA Finals. Take a closer look at how to sign up and start reaping the rewards with this exclusive offer.

    Click here to activate Kalshi promo code AMNY and secure a $10 bonus with $100 worth of trades.

    Kalshi Promo Code AMNY Unlocks $10 Sign-Up Bonus

    Kalshi Promo Code AMNY
    New User Offer Make $100 Worth of Trades, Get $10 Sign-Up Bonus
    Bonus Last Verified On January 21, 2026
    Information Confirmed By AMNY

    This promo is a great opportunity for new customers to test out Kalshi. Start making predictions on Wednesday’s NBA games or take a long-term look at the NBA Finals.

    We also expect to see a lot of interest in the NFL this weekend. Make predictions on the AFC and NFC Championship Games this Sunday with Kalshi. Here is a look at the current percentages to make the Super Bowl (percentages are subject to change before kickoff):

    • Denver (32%) vs. New England (70%)
    • Seattle (59%) vs. Los Angeles R (42%)

    There are also tons of options for non-sports fans on Kalshi. Politics and culture are two of the most popular options on prediction markets. Once players make $100 worth of trades on any market, this promo will unlock the $10 bonus.

    How to Get Started With Kalshi Promo Code AMNY

    Creating a new account on Kalshi is a quick and stress-free process. Get in on the action and start making predictions in a few simple steps:

    • Click here to start signing up. This will redirect players to a registration landing page.
    • Make sure to apply promo code AMNY to qualify for this sign-up bonus.
    • Answer the necessary information sections to create a new profile (online banking, PayPal, credit/debit card, Apple Pay, etc.)
    • Using any of the secure payment methods, make a cash deposit of $10 or more.
    • Start making trades on sports, politics, culture, crypto, climate, companies, financials, tech and more.
    • New customers will receive a $10 welcome bonus after making $100 worth of trades.

    NBA Finals Outlook

    Although plenty of sports fans are locked in on who will win the Super Bowl in February, we are also looking ahead to the NBA Finals in June. Kalshi has options for basketball fans who want to predict who will hoist the Larry O’Brien. Unsurprisingly, Oklahoma City appears to be the favorite in 2026, but the last team to repeat as champions was Golden State in 2018. Take a quick look at the current percentages to win it all (percentages are subject to change):

    • Oklahoma City (43%)
    • Denver (13%)
    • San Antonio (9%)
    • Boston (6%)
    • New York (6%)
    • Detroit (5%)
    • Houston (5%)
    • Los Angeles L (4%)
    • Minnesota (4%)
    • Cleveland (2%)
    • Golden State (2%)
    • Orlando (2%)
    • Philadelphia (2%)

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  • Kalshi Starts Research Group to Push Prediction Market Science Forward

    Kalshi has made a big move beyond running prediction markets by setting up a new research team. This team aims to improve our understanding of forecasting through market data, both in theory and practice. The New York company announced Kalshi Research on December 22, setting up this new group to connect live prediction markets with academic study.

    Kalshi Expands Research Efforts with Data Access and Industry Conference

    This effort plans to give qualified researchers access to Kalshi’s internal data. The company says this is the largest collection of prediction market information out there right now. By doing this, Kalshi hopes to spark more in-depth study into how group decision-making, trading habits, and market prices can help predict real-world outcomes. These outcomes could range from economic indicators to changes in policy.

    Along with the news, Kalshi shared its plans to host the first Prediction Market Conference. This event will gather academics, professional forecasters, traders, and industry members to share findings and discuss methods in a field that has been on the edges of mainstream economics. The public can now register and submit research papers. Scholars from top schools like Harvard, Stanford, Yale, and the University of Chicago have already confirmed they will take part.

    Kalshi Study Shows Its Inflation Forecasts Surpass Wall Street Consensus

    To kick off Kalshi Research, the company put out a study it did in-house. This study compared how well its inflation forecasts stacked up against what top Wall Street economists thought. The team looked at how these predictions did in all sorts of market situations. They found that the prices from Kalshi’s markets did a lot better overall. The study shows that Kalshi’s guesses were about 40% more on the money when compared to the usual ways of predicting.

    The short-term results stood out. Kalshi’s markets matched or beat Wall Street’s consensus in most cases when checked a week before official inflation reports came out. This gap grew even more during uncertain times. When expectations and real outcomes differed a lot in volatile periods, Kalshi’s data had much smaller forecasting errors. This hints that prediction markets might work well at catching quick changes in how people feel.

    Kalshi Leans on Research to Prove Prediction Markets Go Beyond Trading

    Kalshi’s executives see these findings as proof that prediction markets can do more than just trading. The company says decision-makers, business leaders, and experts could use market-based odds to spot early signs of economic trouble or new trends.

    The research kickoff happens as Kalshi keeps growing fast, backed by big funding rounds and team-ups with major financial and crypto companies. Meanwhile, the company is still dealing with ongoing legal fights at the state level about how to classify its event contracts. As courts think about these challenges, Kalshi is counting on more academic respect and openness to help make prediction markets a real forecasting tool instead of just an odd financial quirk.

    Silvia Pavlof

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  • Chris Christie Joins AGA to Fight Prediction Markets

    Posted on: December 23, 2025, 12:18h. 

    Last updated on: December 22, 2025, 05:21h.

    • Chris Christie has joined the fight against sports prediction markets
    • Christie helped states win the right to legalize sports betting
    • Christie and President Trump are not friends, which could hamper Christie’s CFTC influence

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), who championed the fight against the US federal government for states to possess the right to legalize sports betting, has a new target in sports prediction markets.

    Chris Christie prediction markets sports
    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie opines that prediction markets licensed by the CFTC offering sports contracts are breaking the law. Christie recently partnered with the American Gaming Association to fight against predictive market exchanges facilitating events involving sports. (Image: CNBC)

    Christie, a two-term Republican governor in the blue Garden State, helped lead New Jersey’s legal challenge to the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA). The federal law had restricted single-game sports gambling to Nevada.

    After years in court, the US Supreme Court in May 2018 ultimately sided with New Jersey in that PASPA violated anti-commandeering interpretations of the Tenth Amendment. The landmark ruling led to 40 states and Washington, DC, passing sports betting laws.

    Now, Christie is joining the American Gaming Association (AGA), a trade group representing the interests of the commercial and tribal gaming industries, to campaign against the continued rise of sports prediction markets.

    CNBC’s Contessa Brewer, who covers gaming matters for the business news outlet, broke the Christie news last Friday.

    Sports Prediction Markets 

    Prediction markets licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) claim to facilitate the buying and selling of binary markets and yes/no contracts. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket initially focused on the outcome of real-world happenings and events, from the weather to politics, but more recently ventured into sports.

    State attorneys general, gaming regulators, and certain state lawmakers have said the sports prediction markets are nothing more than sports gambling, but Kalshi and the like do not hold sports betting licenses in states where they operate. They’re even operating in states like California and Texas, where sports betting is illegal.

    Several traditional sportsbook giants, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics, recently withdrew their AGA memberships to pursue their own prediction markets. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts launched over the past week.

    The AGA is betting on Christie being able to change the narrative.

    They are clearly illegal in the sports gaming space,” Christie told Brewer. “The Supreme Court turned this [sports betting] over to the states. Regulation is very important,” Christie said. “This is not compliant with the law.”

    The CFTC, which administers the Commodity Exchange Act, has allowed its Designated Contract Market (DCM) licensees to offer contracts on sporting outcomes. The CFTC, under the Trump administration, seems unlikely to force prediction markets to cease trading sports contracts. Even the president’s family is prepping a prediction market entry through its media group, and Donald Trump Jr. is a special advisor to Polymarket and Kalshi.

    The Commodity Exchange Act prohibits CFTC licensees from trading contracts involving “gaming” and events “contrary to the public interest” like war, terrorism, and assassination.

    “Just because people brazenly break the law doesn’t mean they should be permitted to do so,” Christie said.

    Sports Integrity in Focus 

    Christie says, unlike legal, regulated sportsbooks, which report suspicious betting activity to state gaming regulators and sports leagues when wagering patterns suggest a game or player could be compromised, predictive markets are like the wild west, where no such monitoring is occurring.

    The things that have happened in the NBA and MLB were discovered because the licensed sportsbooks are partnered with state regulators to look for irregularities. No one is looking for irregularities in sports prediction markets,” Christie said.

    “The CFTC has made it clear they aren’t regulating it with any rigor,” Christie continued. “The CFTC is not doing the job regarding sports, nor do they claim to be doing the job.”  

    Christie will try and help the AGA stress to the CFTC that prediction markets should not be allowed to offer sports contracts. It could be a tall task, as Christie’s relationship with Trump has soured greatly since his 2016 endorsement of the billionaire, something he’s called the “biggest mistake I’ve made in my political career.”

    Devin O’Connor

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  • Kalshi Faces Rising Risk in Nevada as Court Ruling Clears Way for Enforcement

    Kalshi’s push to secure a nationwide presence is clashing with Nevada’s historic view of gambling regulation. The ongoing legal tension in the state could soon extend beyond civil litigation. After a federal judge refused to give the prediction market a stay, Kalshi is now facing potential enforcement action in the state, including the risk of criminal liability.

    Kalshi’s Expansion into Sports Riled State Regulators

    The latest ruling dissolved a preliminary injunction that was shielding Kalshi from state regulators. The Nevada Gaming Control Board is now free to act on its prior cease-and-desist order, which accused the company of offering sports products without a state license. According to Nevada law, unlicensed sports betting is a serious offense with steep penalties.

    Kalshi’s legal position rests on its federal registration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company insists that its event contracts are financial instruments, not wagers, and are consequently governed by federal commodities law rather than state gaming regulations. This argument was pivotal to Kalshi’s successful forays into political prediction markets ahead of the presidential election.

    However, sports have proven to be a significantly more divisive issue. Many argue that Kalshi, which now offers contracts relating to the NFL, NBA, and college games, looks suspiciously similar to a traditional sportsbook. This pivot has alarmed state regulators, who state that Kalshi’s sports-related offerings directly infringe on local gambling law.

    The Platform Faces Rising Pressure

    Judge Andrew Gordon’s recent ruling made clear he is unconvinced by Kalshi’s reading of federal law. While Gordon acknowledged that the legal questions are complex, he ultimately concluded that Kalshi was unlikely to prevail. That conclusion was enough to deny a stay, leaving the company exposed while it seeks relief from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

    An appellate ruling could take weeks. Meanwhile, Kalshi faces a difficult choice. It could block access to its services in Nevada, similar to Crypto.com, which lost a similar court fight. Alternatively, Kalshi could continue operating and risk enforcement action such as fines, injunctions, and, in extreme cases, criminal charges.

    Kalshi has been vocal against state-by-state shutdowns, arguing that geofencing is costly and potentially inconsistent with CFTC rules. However, other platforms have managed to limit access when necessary, undermining Kalshi’s arguments. Regulators in Ohio, New York, Maryland, and Connecticut have also raised objections to Kalshi’s sports markets, adding to the platform’s legal woes.

    Deyan Dimitrov

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  • Are Prediction Markets Poised to Take Over Sports Betting?

    Posted on: December 11, 2025, 02:26h. 

    Last updated on: December 10, 2025, 01:54h.

    • Prediction markets continue to be the talk of the legal gaming industry
    • Kalshi and its competitors say state gaming laws don’t apply to prediction markets, including sports event contracts

    No issue facing the legal gaming industry in the United States is more concerning than prediction markets. The divisive online trading exchanges, which facilitate the buying and selling of binary yes/no bets on everything from tomorrow’s weather to whether Ukraine and Russia will reach a peace deal, could soon become a concern for lawmaking and regulatory officials across the pond.

    prediction markets sports Kalshi Polymarket
    Prediction markets rushed onto the US gaming scene in 2025. Will prediction markets, including sports event contracts, be around in 2026? Prediction markets could also expand to additional countries overseas. (Image: Shutterstock)

    Prediction markets like Kalshi, Crypto.com, Polymarket, and Robinhood claim they facilitate derivative trades. With licenses from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the online websites and apps say state gaming laws don’t apply.

    While federal court cases to determine the legitimacy of those claims are ongoing, with Casino.org’s Todd Shriber reporting this week that the odds are good the cases will reach the US Supreme Court, established sports betting operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics are moving forward with their prediction market entries.

    State gaming regulators have warned sportsbooks that prediction markets running sports event contracts are violating sports betting laws and, therefore, must be avoided. But the sportsbook leaders continuing to invest in PM platforms hints that they anticipate the legal outcome to go in the way of the emerging markets.

    The prediction markets have a major supporter in President Donald Trump. The former casino tycoon’s public company, Trump Media & Technology Group, is readying Truth Predict, a prediction market platform to integrate with the president’s Truth Social media platform.  

    Prediction Markets’ Global Reach

    NYC-based Kalshi is the US leader in prediction markets, but Polymarket, a crypto-based PM exchange also based in New York, leads elsewhere. Kalshi is focused on expanding globally, with the firm in October announcing that its liquidity pool spans more than 140 countries.

    While Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia have banned Kalshi, most other countries have not.

    Kalshi is available to users around the world under a global model that supports participation from over 140 countries. This expansion will create a single, unified liquidity pool for prediction markets, a structure that is unique to Kalshi,” the company said.

    “While other platforms operate with fragmented, region-specific markets, Kalshi’s global exchange connects traders worldwide to the same set of events, deepening liquidity and price discovery across every market,” the company added.

    “Prediction markets have always had worldwide relevance. Events don’t stop at borders, and neither does trading on them. Whether it’s elections, central bank decisions, sports, or climate, users across continents can trade directly on the outcomes that shape their world,” Kalshi declared.

    Odds of US Sports Prediction Market Ban

    State regulators, attorneys general, and lawmakers continue to seek ways to force the end of sports prediction markets in their jurisdictions. But with federal law preemption, bettors on Polymarket aren’t overly worried.

    Will sports prediction markets be banned in any US state in 2025?” is one such yes/no contract on Polymarket. The trading suggests a chance of only 22%.

    For the contract to resolve “yes,” the rules state that “sports event contracts listed by a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market, whether accessed directly or through a Futures Commission Merchant, are legally prohibited or blocked for users in at least one U.S. state or nationwide” by Dec. 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

    Devin O’Connor

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  • Nevada Federal Ruling Deals Major Blow to Kalshi’s Sports Event Markets

    Posted on: November 26, 2025, 05:54h. 

    Last updated on: November 26, 2025, 05:54h.

    • Nevada judge rules Kalshi’s sports-event contracts are unlicensed gambling products.
    • Decision weakens federal preemption arguments prediction markets use against states.
    • Sportsbook stocks, including DraftKings, rise as rivals to face stricter scrutiny.

    A federal judge in Las Vegas has ruled, in effect, that Kalshi’s “sports-event” contracts amount to unlicensed gambling – not regulated financial instruments under federal law.

    Kalshi, prediction markets, Nevada ruling, sports betting regulation, CFTC
    Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour addresses Web Summit in Lisbon in November 2021. Yesterday’s ruling in Nevada could prove to be a disaster for his company. (Image: Getty)

    US District Judge Andrew Gordon’s ruling undermines the core assumption of Kalshi’s and similar platforms’ business models: that federal oversight automatically shields them from state gambling laws. Kalshi has presented the same argument in multiple legal battles with state regulators across the US, and so the ruling could ripple far beyond Nevada.

    Shares in US regulated sports betting platforms rose on the news, with DraftKings’ stock climbing by 7.7%.

    What’s an Event Contract?

    Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC because the product it offers, events contracts, are a type of derivative. These contracts allow users to speculate on the outcome of a specific event by placing money on a “yes” or “no” eventuality before expiring.

    Judge Gordon rejected Kalshi’s claim that contracts on sporting outcomes qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), which would put them under the jurisdiction of the CFTC and pre-empt state gambling law.

    That interpretation is “strained,” and would, if accepted, effectively convert all sports betting into federally regulated derivatives trading, upending decades of state-level legal gambling frameworks, the judge said.

    Kalshi’s interpretation would require all sports betting across the country to come within the jurisdiction of the CFTC,” rather than state and tribal gaming regulators, wrote the judge. “That interpretation upsets decades of federalism regarding gaming regulation, is contrary to Congress’ intent … and cannot be sustained.”

    And, more bluntly: “Nobody thought sports bets were commodities or excluded commodities or swaps until some brilliant people at Kalshi [did].”

    Kalshi’s Shield Cracks

    The case came about after Nevada sent Kalshi a cease-and-desist letter in March, accusing it of violating state gambling laws and warning that the state could pursue civil or criminal penalties. The company sued Nevada in response, winning a temporary order from Gordon blocking the state from taking action.

    Gordon dissolved the preliminary injunction he granted earlier this year that had protected Kalshi from enforcement by Nevada regulators. Now, with the injunction gone, they are free to act against the prediction platform.

    Things were looking great for Kalshi in October 2024, when a federal court allowed the company to list political event contracts ahead of the presidential election. That indicated federal courts were open to treating at least some prediction markets as lawful derivatives. Suddenly, the ground is far shakier for Kalshi

    Philip Conneller

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  • Ruling Stops Kalshi from Offering Sports Contracts in Nevada

    A Las Vegas federal court has given Nevada gaming regulators the go-ahead to act against Kalshi, a prediction-market operator. 

    Nevada Regulators Gain Ground as Court Blocks Kalshi’s Bid to Offer Sports-Based Markets

    This decision puts a stop, at least for now, to the company’s attempts to offer sports-related contracts in the state. US District Judge Andrew Gordon made this ruling on Monday, overturning his earlier preliminary order from April. That previous order had protected the firm from enforcement while its lawsuit against state officials was ongoing.

    Gordon concluded that Kalshi’s view of its business would put sports betting under the sole control of the federal commodities regulator. He said this stance goes against long-standing lines between federal oversight and state control of gambling, reported The Nevada Independent. He pointed out that treating sports outcomes as regulated derivatives would upset decades of regulatory practice and lacked support from congressional intent.

    Betting platforms like Kalshi let traders buy and sell binary contracts linked to real-world results. The company says it works as a supervised exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission‘s watch. However, officials in Nevada, along with almost two dozen other states and tribal areas, argue these contracts are just another type of sports betting that state law covers.

    Fresh evidence shown in recent hearings seemed to have an impact on the court’s viewpoint. Gordon highlighted certain football-related bets, such as wagers on when touchdowns would happen, as cases that weakened Kalshi’s claim that its products serve wider economic goals beyond just betting. In past cases involving another platform Crypto.com, he came to a similar conclusion, deciding that contracts linked to sports did not count as swaps under federal law.

    After the ruling, Nevada gaming regulators reported that Kalshi had not stopped its operations in the state yet. They indicated they would fight any appeal by the company to halt enforcement during its appeal process. Kalshi said it did not agree with the decision and planned to ask the Ninth Circuit to review it. The company emphasized that its exchange differs from state-licensed sportsbooks.

    The decision also affects Robinhood, which offers Kalshi’s contracts to its customers. Gordon turned down the brokerage’s request for temporary protection. He pointed out that Robinhood could lessen any disruption to its business by blocking Nevada residents until the case ends.

    The fight over prediction markets is spreading across several federal courts, with judges handing down conflicting opinions on how to classify these platforms. Legal experts say the mix of rulings makes it more likely that the dispute could end up at the US Supreme Court since the CFTC has stayed quiet on the issue.

    Silvia Pavlof

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  • Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong trolls the prediction markets | TechCrunch

    On Thursday, at the end of Coinbase’s third quarter earnings call, CEO Brian Armstrong admitted that he was “a little bit distracted,” because he’d been “tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call.”

    “And I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, Blockchain, Staking, and Web3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call,” Armstrong added.

    Why blurt those out without any apparent context? As Armstrong hinted, they were words that users on “mention markets” on Kalshi and Polymarket had wagered would be spoken on the call. So by speaking the words, Armstrong was allowing some of those bets to pay off.

    Bloomberg reports that while mention markets remain a relatively niche part of prediction markets, a total of $84,000 had been bet on whether certain words would be spoken on the cryptocurrency company’s call. And while Armstrong may have helped some Kalshi and Polymarket users make a little money, he was also illustrating how easily these markets can be manipulated when executives become aware of them.

    In fact, Jeff Dorman, CIO at digital assets investment firm Arca, wrote on X that “you need your head examined if you think it’s cute or clever or savvy that the CEO of the biggest company in this industry openly manipulated a market.”

    “It’s not fun working tirelessly for 8 years trying to educate institutional investors on the value of crypto investing as an investable asset class, and working to help them gain comfort in this industry, while one of the supposed ‘leaders’ openly mocks the industry with crap like this,” Dorman said.

    Polymarket, meanwhile, posted that Armstrong’s comments were “diabolical work.”

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    Coinbase is moving into supporting prediction markets itself through its Everything Exchange, which Armstrong touted on the earnings call, and the company has also invested in Kalshi and Polymarket. A Coinbase spokesperson told Bloomberg that the company prohibits employees from participating in prediction markets or related activity around the company.

    After Armstrong’s remarks began drawing attention, he wrote on X, “lol this was fun – happened spontaneously when someone on our team dropped a link in the chat.”

    Anthony Ha

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  • Kalshi Hit with Lawsuit over Alleged Sports Gambling Operations

    From gambling regulators to attorney generals and now private citizens, Kalshi has had to fend off one lawsuit after another. Although it appears to be winning at least in Nevada, the prediction market platform has not had a quiet moment.

    The latest legal development filed against it comes in the form of a New York Southern District class-action lawsuit and plaintiff Daniel Yee.

    Private Individual Files Class-Action Complaint Against Kalshi

    The San Francisco resident claims that the New York-based company had wronged him by convincing him that it operates a “legal sports betting product,” but that wasn’t the case, and Kalshi’s offer was indeed “illegal.”

    Kalshi insists that it has never claimed that it offers sports gambling products, but rather event contracts that can feature the outcomes of sports, which are different and regulated by the CFTC. Gambling regulators and Yee have objected.

    “Based on Kalshi’s false representations, Plaintiff Daniel Yee and the Classes bargained for entry into legal sports gambling contests. But all they received from Kalshi was entry into illegal sports gambling contests,” the lawsuit reads, and insists that Kalshi failed to disclose the “fact” that it was offering illegal gambling contests.

    Should it have done so, Yee would never have registered. The lawsuit also insists that Kalshi conveyed the message that gambling was “legal in all 50 states,” which was also not true. The lawsuit also cites specific California law according to which sports event contracts are a “banking game” and the “house” is, in fact, a participant.

    Pressure on Kalshi’s Sport Event Contracts Continues

    It is not immediately clear whether the case has merit, but it is true that other states, including New York, have already been debating the legitimacy of Kalshi as a platform.

    Yee is looking for $2,000 in restitution of funds he lost with Kalshi, but similarly, nominal, punitive, consequential, and other damages, equitable relief, and all legal costs and expenses associated with the case.

    Ideally, Yee is hoping to bring the court to a jury trial. Kalshi is not shy of spearheading legal challenges itself, with the platform most recently suing Ohio.

    Jerome García

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  • Kalshi hits $5B valuation days after rival Polymarket gets $2B NYSE backing at $8B | TechCrunch

    Kalshi, a prediction market that allows people to bet on future events, announced that it raised over $300 million at a $5 billion valuation. The company’s value has increased 2.5x since its last fundraise just three months ago, when it was valued at $2 billion.

    The fresh capital came from Kalshi’s existing investor, Sequoia Capital, with new investor Andreessen Horowitz co-leading the round. Paradigm Ventures, CapitalG, and Coinbase Ventures also participated.

    Kalshi also revealed that consumers in 140 countries can now make bets on its platform.

    The prediction market is seeing a dramatic surge in activity: Kalshi is set to reach $50 billion in annualized trading volume, up significantly from the approximately $300 million volume posted last year, the New York Times reported.

    Kalshi’s fundraise announcement follows one made just days earlier by archrival Polymarket, which revealed that it had secured an investment of up to $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, at a pre-money valuation of $8 billion. The deal valued Polymarket at $8 billion pre-money, a monumental increase from its $1 billion valuation only two months earlier in August.

    Both Kalshi and Polymarket rose to prominence last year, drawing significant attention for their prediction markets on the presidential election outcome.

    Polymarket has been barred from serving U.S. residents since 2022, following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In July, the company acquired a derivatives exchange and a clearing house. The move helped Polymarket receive the right to reenter the U.S. market. Last month, the company’s CEO and founder, Shayne Coplan, said on X: “Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the CFTC.”

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    Kalshi secured the right for Americans to use its platform after successfully suing the CFTC last year.

    Marina Temkin

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  • Polymarket Just Got a $2 Billion Investment From the NYSE. But Its Future Is Far From Clear

    It has been roughly three years since prediction site Polymarket has been available to U.S. users. Since July, though, the company has been taking steps to restore that access—and it just got one of its biggest votes of confidence.

    The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, on Tuesday, announced an investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, which will value the prediction market at approximately $8 billion. The investment by Intercontinental Exchange Inc. makes 27-year-old founder Shayne Coplan the youngest self-made billionaire in history.

    It comes less than three months after New York City-based Polymarket began publicly talking about its U.S. comeback, announcing it had acquired QCX, the holding company of a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed derivatives exchange, and QC Clearing, a clearinghouse, for $112 million. That, it said at the time, “paves the way for U.S. users to access Polymarket in the near future.”

    Maybe not quite as near as it had hoped for, though. Despite all the positive momentum, Polymarket remains unavailable to U.S. users. A message on the site’s home page currently reads, “Polymarket will soon be available for US traders. We’re working hard to get the U.S. platform ready for launch.”

    Polymarket ceased operations here as part of a settlement with the CFTC. That dispute emerged from Polymarket’s lack of a license. There were also concerns of market manipulation. In July, though, the Justice Department and CFTC ended their investigations (which were launched by the Biden administration). That led to the QCX deal, which opened the path to resume operations in the U.S.

    Any delay in resuming those operations, however, only gives Polymarket’s competitors a chance to lock in users—and there are plenty of competitors.

    With the Intercontinental investment, Polymarket’s valuation is now four times that of rival Kalshi, but when it comes to trading volume, the two are still largely on even footing. For the week to September 29, New York City-based Kalshi boasted a 67 percent share of the global prediction market. Polymarket had 31 percent. Up until late August, Polymarket had been far and away the category leader.

    Polymarket has a global audience, while Kalshi tends to focus more on the U.S., which has a larger customer pool. Kalshi also scored a big victory last year when a federal court authorized it to offer presidential election contracts, something that had been illegal for a century in the U.S. (Some two million users bet more than $1 billion on the Trump versus Harris race alone. Polymarket racked up $3.6 billion in wagers outside of the U.S.)

    There are plenty of other prediction markets in the mix as well. Robinhood launched one before the presidential election last year and has since partnered with Kalshi to add event contracts trading. And Crypto.com partnered with Underdog to start a sports prediction market last month.

    “At the most fundamental level, [prediction markets] are the application of capitalism to the pursuit of truth,” wrote Robinhood founder Vlad Tenev on social media after the deal with Kalshi was struck. “Market incentives and the wisdom of the crowds sift through all the information out there to determine answers to well-specified questions and outcomes to important events.” 

    Prediction markets operate in something of a grey area compared to professional sportsbook operations, and their legality is still being figured out by courts and the CFTC. As that drags on, though, prediction market sites have continued to grow and become habitual for users.

    Wagering on events, from politics to sports to the number of posts Elon Musk will make on X in a given week, has become a multibillion-dollar business. A forecast from Metatech Insights predicts the decentralized prediction market alone will reach $95.5 billion by 2035. The majority of that growth is expected to take place in the U.S., which is why Polymarket has been so eager to return.

    Beyond acquiring QCX, the company has taken other steps to ensure it doesn’t run into the same problems it did before it was banned. Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board in August, and his venture-capital firm 1789 Capital is now an investor in the company (as is Peter Thiel’s Founder’s Fund). Intercontinental Exchange, meanwhile, has its own ties to the Trump administration. Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Sprecher is married to SBA administrator Kelly Loeffler.

    Chris Morris

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  • Kalshi Surpasses $1B in Monthly Trading Volume, Establishes Global Dominance

    Over the past year, prediction markets giant Kalshi has experienced a significant transformation, topping $1 billion in monthly traded volume, firmly establishing itself as the clear leader in the industry.

    Kalshi Establishes Global Prediction Markets Dominance 

    The company reports that newly released data, drawn from publicly available metrics, shows Kalshi now controls 62.2% of the global prediction market volume, a dramatic rise from just 3.1% a year ago. The platform recently exceeded $1 billion in monthly trading volume, a major milestone. This comes despite being limited to US users, which is a constraint that has not prevented it from dominating global activity in the space. A similar pattern emerges in transaction counts, with Kalshi’s share surging from 12.9% to 63.9% over the same 12-month period. 

    The company also reportedly set a single-day record of 588,520 trades during Week 2 of the NFL season. While these props aren’t as comprehensive as those offered by major sports betting platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings, they mark the prediction market’s first foray into sports betting beyond its traditional offerings.

    It’s important to note that Kalshi posted these impressive numbers despite the continually uncertain state of prediction markets in the US. We recently reported on a talk between experts discussing how the issue with “swaps” might become another stumbling block in Kalshi’s and other prediction markets operators’ growth in the country.

    How Kalshi Grew So Much?

    Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour credited the company’s success to a consistent focus on creating a product that genuinely connects with users. He highlighted that the results reflect the team’s dedication and effort, explaining that Kalshi’s approach has been to prioritize user experience over chasing metrics, trusting that strong performance would follow organically.

    It’s remarkable to see how fast Kalshi is growing. We’ve been heads down focusing on building a product we love, and we let the score take care of itself. This result is a testament to how good the team at Kalshi is.

    Tarek Mansour. CEO, Kalshi

    Another major reason for Kalshi’s fast growth is the company’s expansion into various spheres, such as cryptocurrency. In May, Kalshi announced a partnership with Solana, a high-performance blockchain platform designed for decentralized applications and cryptocurrencies. By leveraging these ecosystems, Kalshi aims to overcome current limitations in prediction market infrastructure and expand its user base.

    Stefan Velikov

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  • The Legality of Betting on US Elections • This Week in Gambling

    The Legality of Betting on US Elections • This Week in Gambling

    Americans love to gamble, but for years a line has been drawn around betting on US elections. That was until the New York-based startup Kalshi sued the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission over the issue. And in early September, a Judge agreed with the company and overturned the Commission’s prohibition on the activity. Kalshi then began offering election bets before the CFTC  appealed the courts decision.

    Now the whole matter of betting on US elections is up in the air again, as the federal appeals court heard the case but has yet to make a decision on the issue. However, during the eight-hour period when Kalshi was accepting wagers, they processed about $50,000 bets about which political party would control Congress in November. So obviously, there is a large appetite for these sorts of things.

    The CFTC contends that allowing bets on elections could undermine public confidence in an already delicate electoral system. They raised concerns that such a market might lead to increased manipulation and doubts about election integrity. Really? With all the accusations of voter fraud, hanging chads, illegal voting, and even Russian interference we’re worried about a few people placing bets on the outcome?

    Kalshi’s legal team argued that a well-regulated and liquid futures market could actually deter manipulation. They claimed that transparency in these markets could help prevent attempts to distort outcomes, thereby reinforcing the system. After some heavy sighs, eye rolls, and sarcastic remarks both sides are eager for a ruling ahead of the upcoming election cycle, but the three-judge panel has not indicated when a decision might be reached.

    This discussion occurs against a backdrop of increasing political polarization in the U.S. and heightened scrutiny over election security and integrity. And with November 5th closing in quickly, it’s unlikely that any decision from the appellant court regarding betting on US elections will be reached by that point. But with the candidates running this year, maybe we’re already gambling more than we can afford to lose.

    This Week in Gambling

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  • Kalshi Cleared to Offer Congressional Prediction Markets in Victory Against CFTC

    Kalshi Cleared to Offer Congressional Prediction Markets in Victory Against CFTC

    “For the reasons stated in the Court’s forthcoming memorandum opinion, the Court GRANTS Plaintiff’s motion for summary judgment … and DENIES Defendant’s cross motion for summary judgment,” Cobb wrote. “Defendant’s September 22, 2023 order prohibiting Plaintiff from listing its congressional control contracts for trading is hereby VACATED.”

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