The good times are still rolling on Wall Street. An intensifying earnings season will put that momentum to the test. The S & P 500 ended Friday at a record high, buoyed by strong quarterly results from Club holding Wells Fargo and other major financial firms, which reinforced the idea of a healthy U.S. economy. The index posted its fifth positive week in a row, advancing 1.1%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% in the week and also closed Friday at an all-time high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% and now sits just 1.6% below its July peak. The third-quarter earnings calendar starts to get crowded in the coming days, featuring more major U.S. banks, health-care heavyweights and a few industrial and tech players. All eyes will be on the numbers and what executives have to say on their outlooks — just as it should be, according to Jim Cramer. When consumer price index for September came in a bit hotter than expected Thursday morning , Jim cautioned investors against sweating every line in every economic report. Keep your “eye on the prize,” he said. Right now, he said, that prize is “companies which are about to have earnings.” The high-level takeaway from the economic data in recent days is what matters most: Inflation is broadly trending down. The CPI in September showed an annual inflation rate of 2.4%, slightly above consensus but below the 2.5% figure seen in August. In Friday’s look at wholesale inflation, the producer price index was unchanged month over month . Economists had expected a 0.1% monthly gain. As the market marched back to records, we mostly sat tight. Exiting Procter & Gamble on Tuesday was our lone trade of the week. Simply put: a defensive stock like the maker of Crest toothpaste and Dawn soap didn’t seem right for the portfolio as the Federal Reserve embarks on an easing cycle and the economy remains on solid ground. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan reinforced that notion Friday with their earnings reports. Shares of both banks surged — Wells up 5.6%, JPMorgan up 4.4% — and helped the financial sector climb the S & P 500 leaderboard for the week. Tech led the way, up 2.5%, followed by industrials and financials, which added 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively. Utilities and communication services were the main laggards, losing 2.6% and 1.4%, respectively. In the week ahead, a number of influential companies are set to report including UnitedHealth and Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. ASML on Wednesday and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co . on Thursday will provide a glimpse at the state of the AI trade before the megacap tech companies report later in the month and beyond. We’ll hear from Club holdings Morgan Stanley and Abbott Laboratories on Wednesday morning. Morgan Stanley: The ongoing recovery in investment banking will be front and center. That was a key theme in the second quarter , and the hope is that the July-to-September period showed a continuation of the trend for Morgan Stanley. An encouraging sign arrived Friday, with JPMorgan reporting a better-than-expected number for its investment banking segment. Shares of Morgan Stanley had suffered through a period of underperformance, leading Jim to openly question whether owning rival Goldman Sachs was a better idea. Morgan Stanley has been strong lately, though. The stock is up more than 14% over the past month and closed Friday at a record $110.91 a share. Morgan Stanley’s results Wednesday should hopefully add more clarity on our next move. Indications that its growing wealth management segment has found its footing would be welcome news. Abbott Labs: The medical products maker’s legal fight over its premature infant formula looks more manageable after a trio of U.S. health agencies recently pushed back against claims that formulas like Abbott’s cause an intestinal illness commonly abbreviated as NEC. To be sure, a second trial on the matter is ongoing in St. Louis, so Abbott Labs is not out of the woods just yet. Nevertheless, agencies including the Food and Drug Administration lending their support to the formulas is a big deal. “You clean up the lawsuits, [the stock] goes to $125,” Jim predicted Friday. The reason it would be so positive? Abbott’s strong fundamentals have been obscured by the legal issues. On that front, we’ll be looking for updates on the U.S. launch of Abbott’s over-the-counter continuous glucose monitoring systems and the state of its medical devices business overall. Weak points in the second quarter were nutrition and established pharmaceuticals, but even with them, Abbott has reported back-to-back beat-and-raise quarters. A third would be nice. Week ahead Monday, Oct.14 Before the bell: Charles Schwab (SCHW) Tuesday, Oct. 15 Before the bell: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), UnitedHealth (UNH), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Goldman Sachs (GS) After the bell: United Airlines (UAL), Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and JB Hunt (JBHT) Wednesday, Oct.16 Before the bell: Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Labs (ABT), ASML (ASML), US Bancorp (USB), Citizens (CFG) and Prologis (PLD) After the bell: Alcoa (AA), PPG Industries (PPG), CSX (CSX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Discover (DFS) and Crown Castle (CCI) Thursday, Oct. 17 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. ET: Retail Sales 8:30 a.m. ET: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Before the bell: Taiwan Semi (TSM), Travelers (TRV), Elevance (ELV), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Blackstone (BX), Truist (TFC) and KeyCorp (KEY) After the bell: Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Crown Holdings (CCK) Friday, Oct. 18 8:30 a.m. ET: Housing Starts & Building Permits Before the bell: American Express (AXP), SLB (SLB) and Procter & Gamble (PG) (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, MS and ABT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
A view of the New York Stock Exchange building in the Financial District in New York City on Aug. 5, 2024.
Charly Triballeau | Afp | Getty Images
The good times are still rolling on Wall Street. An intensifying earnings season will put that momentum to the test.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris face off in the ABC presidential debate on Sept. 10, 2024.
Getty Images
With the U.S. election less than a month away, the country and its corporations are staring down two drastically different options.
For airlines, banks, electric vehicle makers, health-care companies, media firms, restaurants and tech giants, the outcome of the presidential contest could result in stark differences in the rules they’ll face, the mergers they’ll be allowed to pursue, and the taxes they’ll pay.
During his last time in power, former President Donald Trump slashed the corporate tax rate, imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, and sought to cut regulation and red tape and discourage immigration, ideas he’s expected to push again if he wins a second term.
In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris has endorsed hiking the tax rate on corporations to 28% from the 21% rate enacted under Trump, a move that would require congressional approval. Most business executives expect Harris to broadly continue President Joe Biden‘s policies, including his war on so-called junk fees across industries.
Personnel is policy, as the saying goes, so the ramifications of the presidential race won’t become clear until the winner begins appointments for as many as a dozen key bodies, including the Treasury, Justice Department, Federal Trade Commission, and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
CNBC examined the stakes of the 2024 presidential election for some of corporate America’s biggest sectors. Here’s what a Harris or Trump administration could mean for business:
The result of the presidential election could affect everything from what airlines owe consumers for flight disruptions to how much it costs to build an aircraft in the United States.
The Biden Department of Transportation, led by Secretary Pete Buttigieg, has taken a hard line on filling what it considers to be holes in air traveler protections. It has established or proposed new rules on issues including refunds for cancellations, family seating and service fee disclosures, a measure airlines have challenged in court.
“Who’s in that DOT seat matters,” said Jonathan Kletzel, who heads the travel, transportation and logistics practice at PwC.
The current Democratic administration has also fought industry consolidation, winning two antitrust lawsuits that blocked a partnership between American Airlines and JetBlue Airways in the Northeast and JetBlue’s now-scuttled plan to buy budget carrier Spirit Airlines.
The previous Trump administration didn’t pursue those types of consumer protections. Industry members say that under Trump, they would expect a more favorable environment for mergers, though four airlines already control more than three-quarters of the U.S. market.
On the aerospace side, Boeing and the hundreds of suppliers that support it are seeking stability more than anything else.
Trump has said on the campaign trail that he supports additional tariffs of 10% or 20% and higher duties on goods from China. That could drive up the cost of producing aircraft and other components for aerospace companies, just as a labor and skills shortage after the pandemic drives up expenses.
Tariffs could also challenge the industry, if they spark retaliatory taxes or trade barriers to China and other countries, which are major buyers of aircraft from Boeing, a top U.S. exporter.
Big banks such as JPMorgan Chase faced an onslaught of new rules this year as Biden appointees pursued the most significant slate of regulations since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
Those efforts threaten tens of billions of dollars in industry revenue by slashing fees that banks impose on credit cards and overdrafts and radically revising the capital and risk framework they operate in. The fate of all of those measures is at risk if Trump is elected.
Trump is expected to nominate appointees for key financial regulators, including the CFPB, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that could result in a weakening or killing off completely of the myriad rules in play.
“The Biden administration’s regulatory agenda across sectors has been very ambitious, especially in finance, and large swaths of it stand to be rolled back by Trump appointees if he wins,” said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy at Wolfe Research.
Bank CEOs and consultants say it would be a relief if aspects of the Biden era — an aggressive CFPB, regulators who discouraged most mergers and elongated times for deal approvals — were dialed back.
“It certainly helps if the president is Republican, and the odds tilt more favorably for the industry if it’s a Republican sweep” in Congress, said the CEO of a bank with nearly $100 billion in assets who declined to be identified speaking about regulators.
Still, some observers point out that Trump 2.0 might not be as friendly to the industry as his first time in office.
Trump’s vice presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance, of Ohio, has often criticized Wall Street banks, and Trump last month began pushing an idea to cap credit card interest rates at 10%, a move that if enacted would have seismic implications for the industry.
Bankers also say that Harris won’t necessarily cater to traditional Democratic Party ideas that have made life tougher for banks. Unless Democrats seize both chambers of Congress as well as the presidency, it may be difficult to get agency heads approved if they’re considered partisan picks, experts note.
“I would not write off the vice president as someone who’s automatically going to go more progressive,” said Lindsey Johnson, head of the Consumer Bankers Association, a trade group for big U.S. retail banks.
Electric vehicles have become a polarizing issue between Democrats and Republicans, especially in swing states such as Michigan that rely on the auto industry. There could be major changes in regulations and incentives for EVs if Trump regains power, a fact that’s placed the industry in a temporary limbo.
“Depending on the election in the U.S., we may have mandates; we may not,” Volkswagen Group of America CEO Pablo Di Si said Sept. 24 during an Automotive News conference. “Am I going to make any decisions on future investments right now? Obviously not. We’re waiting to see.”
Republicans, led by Trump, have largely condemned EVs, claiming they are being forced upon consumers and that they will ruin the U.S. automotive industry. Trump has vowed to roll back or eliminate many vehicle emissions standards under the Environmental Protection Agency and incentives to promote production and adoption of the vehicles.
If elected, he’s also expected to renew a battle with California and other states who set their own vehicle emissions standards.
“In a Republican win … We see higher variance and more potential for change,” UBS analyst Joseph Spak said in a Sept. 18 investor note.
In contrast, Democrats, including Harris, have historically supported EVs and incentives such as those under the Biden administration’s signature Inflation Reduction Act.
Harris hasn’t been as vocal a supporter of EVs lately amid slower-than-expected consumer adoption of the vehicles and consumer pushback. She has said she does not support an EV mandate such as the Zero-Emission Vehicles Act of 2019, which she cosponsored during her time as a senator, that would have required automakers to sell only electrified vehicles by 2040. Still, auto industry executives and officials expect a Harris presidency would be largely a continuation, though not a copy, of the past four years of Biden’s EV policy.
They expect some potential leniency on federal fuel economy regulations but minimal changes to the billions of dollars in incentives under the IRA.
Both Harris and Trump have called for sweeping changes to the costly, complicated and entrenched U.S. health-care system of doctors, insurers, drug manufacturers and middlemen, which costs the nation more than $4 trillion a year.
Despite spending more on health care than any other wealthy country, the U.S. has the lowest life expectancy at birth, the highest rate of people with multiple chronic diseases and the highest maternal and infant death rates, according to the Commonwealth Fund, an independent research group.
Meanwhile, roughly half of American adults say it is difficult to afford health-care costs, which can drive some into debt or lead them to put off necessary care, according to a May poll conducted by health policy research organization KFF.
Both Harris and Trump have taken aim at the pharmaceutical industry and proposed efforts to lower prescription drug prices in the U.S., which are nearly three times higher than those seen in other countries.
But many of Trump’s efforts to lower costs have been temporary or not immediately effective, health policy experts said. Meanwhile, Harris, if elected, can build on existing efforts of the Biden administration to deliver savings to more patients, they said.
Harris specifically plans to expand certain provisions of the IRA, part of which aims to lower health-care costs for seniors enrolled in Medicare. Harris cast the tie-breaking Senate vote to pass the law in 2022.
Her campaign says she plans to extend two provisions to all Americans, not just seniors: a $2,000 annual cap on out-of-pocket drug spending and a $35 limit on monthly insulin costs.
Harris also intends to accelerate and expand a provision allowing Medicare to directly negotiate drug prices with manufacturers for the first time. Drugmakers fiercely oppose those price talks, with some challenging the effort’s constitutionality in court.
Trump hasn’t publicly indicated what he intends to do about IRA provisions.
Some of Trump’s prior efforts to lower drug prices “didn’t really come into fruition” during his presidency, according to Dr. Mariana Socal, a professor of health policy and management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
For example, he planned to use executive action to have Medicare pay no more than the lowest price that select other developed countries pay for drugs, a proposal that was blocked by court action and later rescinded.
Trump also led multiple efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, including its expansion of Medicaid to low-income adults. In a campaign video in April, Trump said he was not running on terminating the ACA and would rather make it “much, much better and far less money,” though he has provided no specific plans.
He reiterated his belief that the ACA was “lousy health care” during his Sept. 10 debate with Harris. But when asked he did not offer a replacement proposal, saying only that he has “concepts of a plan.”
Top of mind for media executives is mergers and the path, or lack thereof, to push them through.
The media industry’s state of turmoil — shrinking audiences for traditional pay TV, the slowdown in advertising, and the rise of streaming and challenges in making it profitable — means its companies are often mentioned in discussions of acquisitions and consolidation.
While a merger between Paramount Global and Skydance Media is set to move forward, with plans to close in the first half of 2025, many in media have said the Biden administration has broadly chilled deal-making.
“We just need an opportunity for deregulation, so companies can consolidate and do what we need to do even better,” Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav said in July at Allen & Co.’s annual Sun Valley conference.
Media mogul John Malone recently told MoffettNathanson analysts that some deals are a nonstarter with this current Justice Department, including mergers between companies in the telecommunications and cable broadband space.
Still, it’s unclear how the regulatory environment could or would change depending on which party is in office. Disney was allowed to acquire Fox Corp.’s assets when Trump was in office, but his administration sued to block AT&T’s merger with Time Warner. Meanwhile, under Biden’s presidency, a federal judge blocked the sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House, but Amazon’s acquisition of MGM was approved.
“My sense is, regardless of the election outcome, we are likely to remain in a similar tighter regulatory environment when looking at media industry dealmaking,” said Marc DeBevoise, CEO and board director of Brightcove, a streaming technology company.
When major media, and even tech, assets change hands, it could also mean increased scrutiny on those in control and whether it creates bias on the platforms.
“Overall, the government and FCC have always been most concerned with having a diversity of voices,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Integrated Media, which specializes in digital media investment. “But then [Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter] happened, and it’s clearly showing you can skew a platform to not just what the business needs, but to maybe your personal approach and whims,” he said.
Since Musk acquired the social media platform in 2022, changing its name to X, he has implemented sweeping changes including cutting staff and giving “amnesty” to previously suspended accounts, including Trump’s, which had been suspended following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection. Musk has also faced widespread criticism from civil rights groups for the amplification of bigotry on the platform.
Musk has publicly endorsed Trump, and was recently on the campaign trail with the former president. “As you can see, I’m not just MAGA, I’m Dark MAGA,” Musk said at a recent event. The billionaire has raised funds for Republican causes, and Trump has suggested Musk could eventually play a role in his administration if the Republican candidate were to be reelected.
During his first term, Trump took a particularly hard stance against journalists, and pursued investigations into leaks from his administration to news organizations. Under Biden, the White House has been notably more amenable to journalists.
Also top of mind for media executives — and government officials — is TikTok.
Lawmakers have argued that TikTok’s Chinese ownership could be a national security risk.
Earlier this year, Biden signed legislation that gives Chinese parent ByteDance until January to find a new owner for the platform or face a U.S. ban. TikTok has said the bill, the Protecting Americans From Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which passed with bipartisan support, violates the First Amendment. The platform has sued the government to stop a potential ban.
While Trump was in office, he attempted to ban TikTok through an executive order, but the effort failed. However, he has more recently switched to supporting the platform, arguing that without it there’s less competition against Meta’s Facebook and other social media.
Both Trump and Harris have endorsed plans to end taxes on restaurant workers’ tips, although how they would do so is likely to differ.
The food service and restaurant industry is the nation’s second-largest private-sector employer, with 15.5 million jobs, according to the National Restaurant Association. Roughly 2.2 million of those employees are tipped servers and bartenders, who could end up with more money in their pockets if their tips are no longer taxed.
Trump’s campaign hasn’t given much detail on how his administration would eliminate taxes on tips, but tax experts have warned that it could turn into a loophole for high earners. Claims from the Trump campaign that the Republican candidate is pro-labor have clashed with his record of appointing leaders to the National Labor Relations Board who have rolled back worker protections.
Meanwhile, Harris has said she’d only exempt workers who make $75,000 or less from paying income tax on their tips, but the money would still be subject to taxes toward Social Security and Medicare, the Washington Post previously reported.
In keeping with the campaign’s more labor-friendly approach, Harris is also pledging to eliminate the tip credit: In 37 states, employers only have to pay tipped workers the minimum wage as long as that hourly wage and tips add up to the area’s pay floor. Since 1991, the federal pay floor for tipped wages has been stuck at $2.13.
“In the short term, if [restaurants] have to pay higher wages to their waiters, they’re going to have to raise menu prices, which is going to lower demand,” said Michael Lynn, a tipping expert and Cornell University professor.
Whichever candidate comes out ahead in November will have to grapple with the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence sector.
Generative AI is the biggest story in tech since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in late 2022. It presents a conundrum for regulators, because it allows consumers to easily create text and images from simple queries, creating privacy and safety concerns.
Harris has said she and Biden “reject the false choice that suggests we can either protect the public or advance innovation.” Last year, the White House issued an executive order that led to the formation of the Commerce Department’s U.S. AI Safety Institute, which is evaluating AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic.
Trump has committed to repealing the executive order.
A second Trump administration might also attempt to challenge a Securities and Exchange Commission rule that requires companies to disclose cybersecurity incidents. The White House said in January that more transparency “will incentivize corporate executives to invest in cybersecurity and cyber risk management.”
Trump’s running mate, Vance, co-sponsored a bill designed to end the rule. Andrew Garbarino, the House Republican who introduced an identical bill, has said the SEC rule increases cybersecurity risk and overlaps with existing law on incident reporting.
Also at stake in the election is the fate of dealmaking for tech investors and executives.
With Lina Khan helming the FTC, the top tech companies have been largely thwarted from making big acquisitions, though the Justice Department and European regulators have also created hurdles.
Tech transaction volume peaked at $1.5 trillion in 2021, then plummeted to $544 billion last year and $465 billion in 2024 as of September, according to Dealogic.
Many in the tech industry are critical of Khan and want her to be replaced should Harris win in November. Meanwhile, Vance, who worked in venture capital before entering politics, said as recently as February — before he was chosen as Trump’s running mate — that Khan was “doing a pretty good job.”
Khan, whom Biden nominated in 2021, has challenged Amazon and Meta on antitrust grounds and has said the FTC will investigate AI investments at Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft.
Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America Securities senior analyst, joins ‘Closing Bell Overtime’ to talk bank earnings and what to expect form next week’s slate of earnings.
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a “Morning Meeting” livestream at 10:20 a.m. ET. Here’s a recap of Friday’s key moments. U.S. stocks jumped Friday, with the S & P 500 on pace for its fifth straight week of gains. The government’s producer price index was cooler than expected, one day after a slightly hotter consumer price index. Bank earnings are the star of the show. During the Club’s Morning Meeting, Jim Cramer said Wall Street is “starting earnings season off with a bang.” Club stock Wells Fargo rose more than 5.5% after quarterly profit exceeded estimates. Check your email inboxes and your texts shortly for our full Wells Fargo earnings commentary. Jim said he would like to buy some more Advanced Micro Devices if he weren’t restricted due to the Club’s trading rules. AMD dropped 1% on Wednesday and then another 4% on Thursday following its Advancing AI meeting. Melius Research said the stock sold off because the market wanted to see another cloud giant in attendance. Jim said the AMD slide was a bit unfair because Jensen Huang, CEO of AI chip leader Nvidia CEO, sucked all the oxygen out of the room during a three-day roadshow. Palo Alto Networks stock is having a great week, up 10% through early Friday, and our best weekly performer. Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the cybersecurity stock to $421 per share from $390. That implies 14% upside from Thursday’s close. We battled the stock, buying some on the dip in early August and then taking some profits later in the month. Jim has been considering adding cyber rival CrowdStrike to the portfolio, pointing out that Bullpen name CrowdStrike didn’t lose customers after its glitch caused a worldwide IT outage in July. Stocks covered in Friday’s rapid fire at the end of the video were: JPMorgan , BlackRock , Tesla , Affirm , and Ferrari . (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, AMD, PANW. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a “Morning Meeting” livestream at 10:20 a.m. ET. Here’s a recap of Friday’s key moments.
JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., December 6, 2023.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees risks climbing around the world amid widening conflicts in the Middle East and with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showing no signs of abating.
“We have been closely monitoring the geopolitical situation for some time, and recent events show that conditions are treacherous and getting worse,” Dimon said Friday in the bank’s third-quarter earnings release.
“There is significant human suffering, and the outcome of these situations could have far-reaching effects on both short-term economic outcomes and more importantly on the course of history,” he said.
Dimon went deeper into his concerns last month during a fireside chat held at Georgetown University.
The international order in place since the end of World War II was unraveling with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, rising U.S.-China tensions and the risk of “nuclear blackmail” from Iran, North Korea and Russia, Dimon said.
“It’s ratcheting up, folks, and it takes really strong American leadership and western world leaders to do something about that,” Dimon said. “That’s my number one concern, and it dwarves any I’ve had since I’ve been working.”
Dimon also said that he remained wary about the future of the economy, despite signs that the Federal Reserve has engineered a soft landing.
“While inflation is slowing and the U.S. economy remains resilient, several critical issues remain, including large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world,” Dimon said. “While we hope for the best, these events and the prevailing uncertainty demonstrate why we must be prepared for any environment.”
CEO of Chase Jamie Dimon looks on as he attends the seventh “Choose France Summit”, aiming to attract foreign investors to the country, at the Chateau de Versailles, outside Paris, on May 13, 2024.
Lucovic Marin | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the opening bell Friday.
Here’s what Wall Street expects:
Earnings: $4.01 a share, according to LSEG
Revenue: $41.63 billion, according to LSEG
Net interest income: $22.73 billion, according to StreetAccount
Trading Revenue: Fixed income of $4.38 billion, Equities of $2.41 billion, according to StreetAccount
JPMorgan will be watched closely for clues on how banks are faring at the start of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.
The biggest American bank has thrived in a rising rate environment, posting record net income figures since the Fed started hiking rates in 2022.
Now, with the Fed cutting rates, there are questions as to how JPMorgan will navigate the change. Like other big banks, it’s margins may be squeezed as yields on interest-generating assets like loans fall faster than its funding costs.
Last month, JPMorgan dialed back expectations for 2025 net interest income and expenses, and analysts will want more details on those projections.
Analysts will also want to hear JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s thoughts about the upcoming U.S. election and the industry’s efforts to push back against an array of regulatory moves to rein in fees and force banks to hold more capital.
Shares of JPMorgan have jumped 25% this year, exceeding the 20% gain of the KBW Bank Index.
“Jamie Dimon has not endorsed anyone. He has not endorsed a candidate,” Dimon spokesman Joe Evangelisti told CNBC in a phone call.
Trump on Truth Social had posted a screenshot falsely claiming, “New: Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has endorsed Trump for President.”
The claim appears to have originated from a verified account on X earlier Friday. It was quickly amplified on social media by other pro-Trump accounts, and then the former president himself, before the bank issued its denial.
When NBC News asked Trump about the post later Friday, Trump said he did not know about it and that it was not posted by him.
“Somebody put it up,” Trump said, adding, “I don’t know.”
The post, published at 1:56 p.m. ET, was still visible on Trump’s official account more than two hours later.
The Trump campaign did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.
Former President and GOP Presidential candidate Donald Trump post a Truth that claims J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has endorsed Trump for President.
Source: @realDonaldTrump | Truth Social
In September, Dimon said that he is not backing either Trump or Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
“I’m not endorsing anyone at this time,” Dimon told CNBCTV-18 at the JPMorgan Investor Summit in Mumbai.
Dimon has at times offered qualified praise for Trump, but the two men have also clashed repeatedly over the years.
During the Republican presidential primary season, Dimon had urged corporate leaders to support former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley over Trump.
Trump tore into Dimon for siding with Haley, saying he “had to live with this guy when he came begging to the White House.”
Great news for Club stocks Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley : The rebound in investment banking isn’t over yet. The catalyst? Dealmaking is expected to continue to rise as the Federal Reserve delivers more interest rate cuts. This should, in turn, boost revenues for a key business within both Wall Street firms. We’ll find out to what extent when Wells Fargo reports earnings on Oct. 11 and Morgan Stanley delivers quarterly results on Oct. 16. Lower borrowing costs tend to spur mergers and acquisitions (M & A) and initial public offerings (IPO), which means more business for the banks. Recent numbers from consulting firm KPMG and financial data provider S & P Global Market Intelligence indicate a solid pickup in activity for M & A and IPOs already. So far in 2024, mergers and acquisitions transaction values and money raised from initial public offerings are largely outperforming all of last year’s lackluster activity. U.S. mergers and acquisitions rose 37% to $1.3 trillion in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period a year ago, according to KPMG, citing data through Sept. 15. Global M & A transaction values so far this year of roughly $2 trillion have already beat 2023’s total of $1.6 trillion, according to S & P Global data captured on Oct. 1. The IPO market has improved, too. According to KPMG, public offerings listed in the U.S. raised $28.3 billion during the first nine months of 2024. That’s up 50% year over year. All of this bodes well for the kind of advisory and underwriting fees that investment banks can charge to facilitate these deals. To be sure, M & A and IPO values are still down significantly from their Covid peaks in 2021 after the Fed delivered two emergency rate cuts in March 2020 that took the cost of borrowing to near zero. Rates remained that way until March 2022 when central bankers started their tightening cycle to fight inflation. The Fed hiked rates 11 times over 18 months before cutting rates by 50 basis points last month. Speaking at a National Association for Business Economics event in Nashville, Tennessee, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Monday that he expects an additional 50 basis points worth of rate cuts this year — 25 in November and 25 in December. The market is not quite ready to take Powell at his word. As of Tuesday, the CME FedWatch tool was putting roughly 66% odds on a 50 basis point cut in December. Rebecca Brokmeier, group head of KPMG’s investment banking platform, sees “an increase in new deals in the market in the fourth calendar quarter and expects this trend to continue as we move into 2025” while the Fed continues to lower rates. Brokmeier told CNBC Tuesday that a lot of this activity is expected to be driven by private equity, which is “more reliant on low interest rates for transactions than corporations and have record levels of dry powder to deploy as well as long-held assets that must be exited in order to return cash to their investors.” MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance For Morgan Stanley, a resurgence in its investment banking division is crucial to our investment thesis and why we stuck with it. Following nearly two downbeat years, we saw reason to be optimistic about Morgan Stanley’s IB business last quarter, which was out in July. IB segment revenue jumped 51%. Breaking IB down further, advisory and equity underwriting fees both surged 30% and 56%, respectively, from the prior year. Last month, however, Jim Cramer criticized the stock’s underperformance , adding that he was considering exiting Morgan Stanley and swapping in investment banking rival Goldman Sachs , where he used to work during his days on Wall Street. Part of that underperformance came after co-president Dan Simkowitz said that M & A and IPOs will remain below trend for the rest of 2024 at an industry conference. To be sure, he also predicted that this activity would accelerate in 2025 as the Fed lowers rates. “Morgan Stanley is in no man’s land, too low to sell and too high to buy. That means wait, which is exactly what we are doing,” Jim said during the Club’s Monthly Meeting on Sept. 12, two days after Simkowitz’s comments. “It might be time to say goodbye and pick up some of the much better run Goldman Sachs.” A week later, Morgan Stanley stock rose on the Fed rate cut, and the Club settled for trimming the position . Morgan Stanley has diversified its portfolio and moved more heavily into wealth management in recent years to reduce its exposure to the volatility of the IB business. So, it remains to be seen how investment banking performance fits into the whole profit picture. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date Morgan Stanley’s IB business is much larger than Wells Fargo’s. However, Wells Fargo, known for its roots as a traditional money center bank, has been working diligently to build out its dealmaking side of the shop. It’s kind of the opposite of Morgan Stanley. Wells Fargo, which has a strong wealth management franchise, is branching out to take a slice of the IB pie. Wells has made a series of senior-level hires in recent years to expand its corporate and investment banking (CIB) division. This helps the bank rely less on interest-based incomes from its consumer lending business, which have been long at the mercy of the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. We’ve seen positive signs already, as CIB revenue jumped 38% year over year in the July quarter. “We continued to see growth in our fee-based revenue offsetting an expected decline in net interest income,” Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said during the July 12 earnings call. “The investments we have been making allowed us to take advantage of the market activity in the quarter with strong performance in investment advisory, trading and investment banking fees.” In another positive development in Scharf’s bid to clean up the bank’s past missteps and get regulatory permission to expand, Bloomberg News reported last week that Wells Fargo submitted a third-party review of its risk and control overhauls to the Fed in an effort to get the central bank-mandated $1.95 trillion asset cap removed. The restriction was put in place by the Fed in 2018 after a series of scandals under previous leadership. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long WFC, MS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on September 18, 2024 in Washington, DC.
JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon gestures as he speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 6, 2023.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
Buried in a roughly 200-page quarterly filing from JPMorgan Chase last month were eight words that underscore how contentious the bank’s relationship with the government has become.
The lender disclosed that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau could punish JPMorgan for its role in Zelle, the giant peer-to-peer digital payments network. The bank is accused of failing to kick criminal accounts off its platform and failing to compensate some scam victims, according to people who declined to be identified speaking about an ongoing investigation.
In response, JPMorgan issued a thinly veiled threat: “The firm is evaluating next steps, including litigation.”
The prospect of a bank suing its regulator would’ve been unheard of in an earlier era, according to policy experts, mostly because corporations used to fear provoking their overseers. That was especially the case for the American banking industry, which needed hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer bailouts to survive after irresponsible lending and trading activities caused the 2008 financial crisis, those experts say.
But a combination of factors in the intervening years has created an environment where banks and their regulators have never been farther apart.
Trade groups say that in the aftermath of the financial crisis, banks became easy targets for populist attacks from Democrat-led regulatory agencies. Those on the side of regulators point out that banks and their lobbyists increasingly lean on courts in Republican-dominated districts to fend off reform and protect billions of dollars in fees at the expense of consumers.
“If you go back 15 or 20 years, the view was it’s not particularly smart to antagonize your regulator, that litigating all this stuff is just kicking the hornet’s nest,” said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy at Wolfe Research.
“The disparity between how ambitious [President Joe] Biden’s regulators have been and how conservative the courts are, at least a subset of the courts, is historically wide,” Marcus said. “That’s created so many opportunities for successful industry litigation against regulatory proposals.”
Those forces collided this year, which started out as one of the most consequential for bank regulation since the post-2008 reforms that curbed Wall Street risk-taking, introduced annual stress tests and created the industry’s lead antagonist, the CFPB.
In the final months of the Biden administration, efforts from a half-dozen government agencies were meant to slash fees on credit card late payments, debit transactions and overdrafts, among other proposals. The industry’s biggest threat was the Basel Endgame, a sweeping plan to force big banks to hold tens of billions of dollars more in capital for activities like trading and lending.
“The industry is facing an onslaught of regulatory and potential legislative change,” Marianne Lake, head of JPMorgan’s consumer bank, warned investors in May.
JPMorgan’s disclosure about the CFPB probe into Zelle comes after years of grilling by Democrat lawmakers over financial crimes on the platform. Zelle was launched in 2017 by a bank-owned firm called Early Warning Services in response to the threat from peer-to-peer networks including PayPal.
The vast majority of Zelle activity is uneventful; of the $806 billion that flowed across the network last year, only $166 million in transactions was disputed as fraud by customers of JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, the three biggest players on the platform.
But the three banks collectively reimbursed just 38% of those claims, according to a July Senate report that looked at disputed unauthorized transactions.
Banks are typically on the hook to reimburse fraudulent Zelle payments that the customer didn’t give permission for, but usually don’t refund losses if the customer is duped into authorizing the payment by a scammer, according to the Electronic Fund Transfer Act.
A JPMorgan payments executive told lawmakers in July that the bank actually reimburses 100% of unauthorized transactions; the discrepancy in the Senate report’s findings is because bank personnel often determine that customers have authorized the transactions.
Amid the scrutiny, the bank began warning Zelle users on the Chase app to “Stay safe from scams” and added disclosures that customers won’t likely be refunded for bogus transactions.
The company, which has grown to become the largest and most profitable American bank in history under CEO Jamie Dimon, is at the fore of several other skirmishes with regulators.
Thanks to his reputation guiding JPMorgan through the 2008 crisis and last year’s regional banking upheaval, Dimon may be one of few CEOs with the standing to openly criticize regulators. That was highlighted this year when Dimon led a campaign, both public and behind closed doors, to weaken the Basel proposal.
In May, at JPMorgan’s investor day, Dimon’s deputies made the case that Basel and other regulations would end up harming consumers instead of protecting them.
The cumulative effect of pending regulation would boost the cost of mortgages by at least $500 a year and credit card rates by 2%; it would also force banks to charge two-thirds of consumers for checking accounts, according to JPMorgan.
The message: banks won’t just eat the extra costs from regulation, but instead pass them on to consumers.
While all of these battles are ongoing, the financial industry has racked up several victories so far.
Some contend the threat of litigation helped convince the Federal Reserve to offer a new Basel Endgame proposal this month that roughly cuts in half the extra capital that the largest institutions would be forced to hold, among other industry-friendly changes.
It’s not even clear if the watered-down version of the proposal, a long-in-the-making response to the 2008 crisis, will ever be implemented because it won’t be finalized until well after U.S. elections.
If Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, the rules might be further weakened or killed outright, and even under a Kamala Harris administration, the industry could fight the regulation in court.
That’s been banks’ approach to the CFPB credit card rule, which aimed to cap late fees at $8 per incident and was set to go into effect in May.
A last-ditch effort from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and bank trade groups successfully delayed its implementation when Judge Mark Pittman of the Northern District of Texas sided with the industry, granting a freeze of the rule.
A key playbook for banks has been to file cases in conservative jurisdictions where they are likely to prevail, according to Lori Yue, a Columbia Business School associate professor who has studied the interplay between corporations and the judicial system.
The Northern District of Texas feeds into the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, which is “well-known for its friendliness to industry lawsuits against regulators,” Yue said.
“Venue-shopping like this has become well-established corporate strategy,” Yue said. “The financial industry has been particularly active this year in suing regulators.”
Since 2017, nearly two-thirds of the lawsuits filed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce challenging federal regulations have been in courts under the 5th Circuit, according to an analysis by Accountable US.
Industries dominated by a few large players — from banks to airlines, pharmaceutical companies and energy firms — tend to have well-funded trade organizations that are more likely to resist regulators, Yue added.
The polarized environment, where weakened federal agencies are undermined by conservative courts, ultimately preserves the advantages of the largest corporations, according to Brian Graham, co-founder of bank consulting firm Klaros.
“It’s really bad in the long run, because it locks in place whatever the regulations have been, while the reality is that the world is changing,” Graham said. “It’s what happens when you can’t adopt new regulations because you’re terrified that you’ll get sued.”
— With data visualizations by CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes.
A worker sweeps the floor at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, US, on Monday, Sept. 16, 2024.
Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images
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Tech surges After taking a day to digest the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut, investors flocked to tech stocks. On Thursday, Tesla soared 7.4%, Nvidia popped 4% and Apple jumped 3.7%. Lifted by those stocks, the Nasdaq rose 2.5%, its fourth-biggest single-day gain in 2024. Its sharpest rally this year was a 3% increase on Feb. 22.
“Recalibration” Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s use of the word “recalibration” seemed to reassure investors that the central bank’s 50 basis point cut wasn’t thatworrying. It signaled the Fed wasn’t responding to a slowing economy, but shifting focus to ensuring employment doesn’t dip further, wrote CNBC’s Jeff Cox.
Staying its hand The Bank of England decided to hold interest rates steady at 5%. The decision was nearly unanimous: Only one out of nine members in the Monetary Policy Committee voted to reduce rates by a quarter percentage point. Market watchers expect the BOE to cut rates at its next meeting in November.
[PRO] Another big cut? Some experts thought the Fed would lower rates by a quarter percentage point at its September meeting.That call was wrong. A JPMorgan Chase economistnailed the half-point call – and he sees another big rate cut in November.
“Twenty-four little hours / Brought the sun and the flowers / Where there used to be rain,” sings American 1950s star Dinah Washington.
Washington might as well be singing about the market’s behavior. Immediately after the Fed announced the jumbo rate slash on Wednesday, stocks hit fresh highs before falling into the red by the end of that day.
But twenty-four hours later, after investors assessed that the half-point cut probably didn’t portend the start of a recession, major indexes rallied to close at record highs.
The S&P climbed 1.7% to end at 5,713.64, the first time the broad-based index has broken through the 5,700 ceiling. Likewise, the Dow closed at 42,025.19, its first above the 42,000 level, after the index rose 1.26%.
The Nasdaq, buoyed by a rally in names like Tesla, Nvidia and Apple, was the biggest winner among major indexes, surging 2.51%, for its fourth-best day this year.
And while history shows that September hasn’t been nice to stocks, it also tells us that when the S&P notches record highs during the month, the fourth quarter’s likely to remain strong. Since 1950, this pattern has played out in 20 out of 22 occasions, noted Oppenheimer.
Indeed, BMO is so bullish about the market that the bank raised its year-end target for the S&P to 6,100 – an 8.6% climb from Wednesday’s close – the highest projection on Wall Street.
“Much like our last target increase in May, we continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted,” chief investment strategist Brian Belski wrote to clients in a Thursday note.
At the end of Washington’s song, she croons, “What a difference a day makes / And the difference is you.” Powell can perhaps feel like Washington’s serenading him.
– CNBC’s Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Hakyung Kim and Lisa Kailai Han contributed to this story.
Correction: An earlier version of this report did not state the time frame for the Nasdaq’s best performance. It has been added to this report.
JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon gestures as he speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 6, 2023.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
JPMorgan Chase has created a new global role overseeing all junior bankers in an effort to better manage their workload after the death of a Bank of America associate in May forced Wall Street to examine how it treats its youngest employees.
The firm named Ryland McClendon its global investment banking associate and analyst leader in a memo sent this month, CNBC has learned.
Associates and analysts are on the two lowest rungs in Wall Street’s hierarchy for investment banking and trading; recent college graduates flock to the roles for the high pay and opportunities they can provide.
The memo specifically stated that McClendon, a 14-year JPMorgan veteran and former banker who was previously head of talent and career development, would support the “well-being and success” of junior bankers.
The move shows how JPMorgan, the biggest American investment bank by revenue, is responding to the latest untimely death on Wall Street. In May, Bank of America’s Leo Lukenas III died after reportedly working 100-hour weeks on a bank merger. Later that month, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said his bank was examining what it could learn from the tragedy.
Then, starting in August, JPMorgan’s senior managers instructed their investment banking teams that junior bankers should typically work no more than 80 hours, part of a renewed focus to track their workload, according to a person with knowledge of the situation.
Exceptions can be made for live deals, said the person, who declined to be identified speaking about the internal policy.
Dimon railed against some of Wall Street’s ingrained practices at a financial conference held Tuesday at Georgetown University. Some of the hours worked by junior bankers are just a function of inefficiency or tradition, rather than need, he indicated.
“A lot of investment bankers, they’ve been traveling all week, they come home and they give you four assignments, and you’ve got to work all weekend,” Dimon said. “It’s just not right.”
Senior bankers would be held accountable if their analysts and associates routinely tripped over the policy, he said.
“You’re violating it,” Dimon warned. “You’ve got to stop, and it will be in your bonus, so that people know we actually mean it.”
Apple CEO Tim Cook introduces the Apple Card during a launch event at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, California, on March 25, 2019.
Noah Berger | AFP | Getty Images
Apple is in discussions with JPMorgan Chase for the bank to take over the tech giant’s flagship credit card program from Goldman Sachs, a person with knowledge of the negotiations said.
The discussions are still early and key elements of a deal — such as price and whether JPMorgan would continue certain features of the Apple Card — are yet to be decided, said the person, who requested anonymity to discuss the nature of the potential deal. The talks could fall apart over these or other matters in the coming months, this person said.
But the move shows the extent to which Apple’s choices were limited when Goldman Sachs decided to pivot from its ill-fated retail banking strategy. There are only a few card issuers in the U.S. with the scale and appetite to take over the Apple Card program, which had saddled Goldman with losses and regulatory scrutiny.
JPMorgan is the country’s biggest credit card issuer by purchase volume, according to the Nilson Report, an industry newsletter.
The bank is seeking to pay less than face value for the roughly $17 billion in loans on the Apple Card because of elevated losses on the cards, the person familiar with the matter said. Sources close to Goldman argued that higher-than-average delinquencies and defaults on the Apple Card portfolio were mostly because the users were new accounts. Those losses were supposed to ease over time.
But questions around credit quality have made the portfolio less attractive to issuers at a time when there are concerns the U.S. economy could be headed for a slowdown.
JPMorgan is also seeking to do away with a key Apple Card feature known as calendar-based billing, which means that all customers get statements at the start of the month rather than staggered throughout the period, the person familiar with the matter said. The feature, while appealing to customers, means service personnel are flooded with calls at the same time every month.
Apple and JPMorgan declined to comment on the negotiations, which were reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on Tuesday proposed a new rule forcing banks to keep detailed records for customers of fintech apps after the failure of tech firm Synapse resulted in thousands of Americans being locked out of their accounts.
The rule, aimed at accounts opened by fintech firms that partner with banks, would make the institution maintain records of who owns it and the daily balances attributed to the owner, according to an FDIC memo.
Fintech apps often lean on a practice where many customers’ funds are pooled into a single large account at a bank, which relies on either the fintech or a third party to maintain ledgers of transactions and ownership.
That situation exposed customers to the risk that the nonbanks involved would keep shoddy or incomplete records, making it hard to determine who to pay out in the event of a failure. That’s what happened in the Synapse collapse, which impacted more than 100,000 users of fintech apps including Yotta and Juno. Customers with funds in these “for benefit of” accounts have been unable to access their money since May.
“In many cases, it was advertised that the funds were FDIC-insured, and consumers may have believed that their funds would remain safe and accessible due to representations made regarding placement of those funds in” FDIC-member banks, the regulator said in its memo.
Keeping better records would allow the FDIC to quickly pay depositors in the event of a bank failure by helping to satisfy conditions needed for “pass-through insurance,” FDIC officials said Tuesday in a briefing.
While FDIC insurance doesn’t get paid out in the event the fintech provider fails, like in the Synapse situation, enhanced records would help a bankruptcy court determine who is owed what, the officials added.
If approved by the FDIC board of governors in a vote Tuesday, the rule will get published in the Federal Register for a 60-day comment period.
Separately, the FDIC also released a statement on its policy on bank mergers, which would heighten scrutiny of the impacts of consolidation, especially for deals creating banks with more than $100 billion in assets.
Bank mergers slowed under the Biden administration, drawing criticism from industry analysts who say that consolidation would create more robust competitors for the likes of megabanks including JPMorgan Chase.
JP Morgan headquarters at Canary Wharf financial district at the heart of Canary Wharf financial district on 6th February 2024 in London, United Kingdom.
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
First Harris-Trump debate In their first face-to-face meeting, Vice President Kamala Harris met former President Donald Trump for their first — and perhaps only – presidential debate. On the economic front, both candidates clashed over tariffs, fracking and China policy. After the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, and signed off her post as “Childless Cat Lady.”
Tough environment for European companies China’s environment for businesses is so thorny that European companies have grown discouraged with operating in the country, according to the EU Chamber of Commerce. If European companies were to invest in China further, Beijing must act on its pledges to improve the business conditions, the chamber’s paper wrote.
Big price reports The U.S. consumer price index for August comes out later today, while the producer price index, which measures prices at the wholesale level, will be released a day later. They’re the last major economic data the Federal Reserve will receive — and hence influence its decision on the size of cuts — before its meeting next week.
[PRO] U.S.-listed global stocks With the outlook for the U.S. economy looking uncertain, investors can turn their attention to global companies. At the same time, investors may want to stick with the safety of the U.S. stock market. CNBC Pro looked for companies headquartered overseas, but listed in the U.S. – and may experience over 100% upside, according to analysts.
As rates fall, borrowing becomes cheaper. For the consumer, that’s most felt in areas like housing; for companies, it tends to boost spending on expansion and investment.
Those acts trigger a virtuous cycle of spending, boosting consumption and growth, which in turns increases employment. The economy loves lower rates too and swells up.
There’s one industry, however, that generally enjoys higher interest rates: banking.
One way banks make money is through the net interest income. That’s the difference between the interest rate they charge on loans and the rate they offer on savings. As rates rise, banks can raise the former, which is a revenue source, while keeping the latter, a cost, low.
With rate cuts looming on the horizon, however, that age of abundance is coming to an end for big banks.
JPMorgan poured cold water on the market’s expectation of around $90 billion for NII in 2025. That number “is not very reasonable” because the Fed will cut rates, said JPMorgan President Daniel Pinto.
If the biggest bank in the U.S. thinks it can’t keep loan rates high, it’s hard to imagine smaller banks can maintain juicy NII of the previous years.
Investors didn’t take JPMorgan’s caution warmly. Its shares lost around 5% and weighed down the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which declined 0.23%.
JPMorgan signage outside a Chase bank branch in New York, US, on Thursday, Jan. 12, 2023.
Stephanie Keith | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
Big price reports The U.S. consumer price index for August comes out later today, while the producer price index, which measures prices at the wholesale level, will be released a day later. They’re the last major economic data the Federal Reserve will receive — and hence influence its decision on the size of cuts — before its meeting next week.
Endgame for Basel regulations The Basel Endgame regulation, introduced in July 2023, was meant to increase capital requirements for big banks by around 19%. On Tuesday, however, a Federal Reserve official announced that regulatory institutions have agreed to resubmit the proposal, reducing the increase in capital requirement to just 9%.
Risk of stagflation Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said stagflation is a possibility for the U.S. The government’s budget deficit and high spending on infrastructure works are inflationary forces, he said. Separately, JPMorgan shares fell 5.19% after the bank’s president Daniel Pinto lowered expectations for next year’s net interest income.
[PRO] Underwhelming Apple Intelligence Apple announced new iPhones yesterday. But Wall Street was more focused on the company’s artificial intelligence offerings, given their potential to start an iPhone-upgrade cycle and establish a new source of revenue. Unfortunately, analysts came away underwhelmed.
As rates fall, borrowing becomes cheaper. For the consumer, that’s most felt in areas like housing; for companies, it tends to boost spending on expansion and investment.
Those acts trigger a virtuous cycle of spending, boosting consumption and growth, which in turns increases employment. The economy loves lower rates too and swells up.
There’s one industry, however, that generally enjoys higher interest rates: banking.
One way banks make money is through the net interest income. That’s the difference between the interest rate they charge on loans and the rate they offer on savings. As rates rise, banks can raise the former, which is a revenue source, while keeping the latter, a cost, low.
With rate cuts looming on the horizon, however, that age of abundance is coming to an end for big banks.
JPMorgan poured cold water on the market’s expectation of around $90 billion for NII in 2025. That number “is not very reasonable” because the Fed will cut rates, said JPMorgan President Daniel Pinto.
If the biggest bank in the U.S. thinks it can’t keep loan rates high, it’s hard to imagine smaller banks can maintain juicy NII of the previous years.
Investors didn’t take JPMorgan’s caution warmly. Its shares lost around 5% and weighed down the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which declined 0.23%.
