Tag: JPM

WFA of San Diego LLC Acquires 523 Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)

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WFA of San Diego LLC grew its position in JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) by 70.6% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund owned 1,264 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after acquiring an additional 523 shares during the quarter. WFA of San Diego LLC’s holdings in JPMorgan Chase & Co. were worth $183,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

A number of other large investors also recently bought and sold shares of JPM. OFI Invest Asset Management grew its holdings in JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 5.8% during the third quarter. OFI Invest Asset Management now owns 449,527 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $61,573,000 after acquiring an additional 24,575 shares during the period. Diversified LLC raised its holdings in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 10.9% in the 3rd quarter. Diversified LLC now owns 8,345 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $1,210,000 after buying an additional 820 shares during the period. ML & R Wealth Management LLC grew its stake in JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 13.9% during the 3rd quarter. ML & R Wealth Management LLC now owns 3,957 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $574,000 after purchasing an additional 482 shares in the last quarter. C2P Capital Advisory Group LLC d.b.a. Prosperity Capital Advisors boosted its position in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 27.3% in the 3rd quarter. C2P Capital Advisory Group LLC d.b.a. Prosperity Capital Advisors now owns 3,986 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $578,000 after purchasing an additional 855 shares during the period. Finally, Todd Asset Management LLC boosted its position in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 25.6% in the 3rd quarter. Todd Asset Management LLC now owns 249,993 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $36,254,000 after purchasing an additional 50,884 shares during the period. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 68.94% of the company’s stock.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

JPM has been the topic of several analyst reports. Morgan Stanley raised their price objective on JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $187.00 to $191.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a report on Monday, October 16th. Evercore ISI boosted their price objective on JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $158.00 to $167.00 in a research report on Thursday, October 5th. BMO Capital Markets boosted their target price on shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $192.00 to $194.00 and gave the company a “market perform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, January 16th. Jefferies Financial Group decreased their price objective on shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $176.00 to $169.00 in a report on Tuesday, October 10th. Finally, Oppenheimer cut their target price on shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $234.00 to $232.00 and set an “outperform” rating for the company in a research report on Tuesday, January 16th. Eight investment analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and eleven have given a buy rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $177.21.

Check Out Our Latest Analysis on JPM

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Price Performance

Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock traded down $0.66 during trading hours on Friday, hitting $172.28. The company’s stock had a trading volume of 7,442,955 shares, compared to its average volume of 10,066,694. JPMorgan Chase & Co. has a 12-month low of $123.11 and a 12-month high of $176.31. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.30, a quick ratio of 0.90 and a current ratio of 0.91. The business has a 50 day moving average price of $164.53 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $153.77. The company has a market cap of $495.59 billion, a PE ratio of 10.62, a PEG ratio of 2.20 and a beta of 1.13.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM – Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Friday, January 12th. The financial services provider reported $3.04 EPS for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $3.73 by ($0.69). The firm had revenue of $38.57 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $39.73 billion. JPMorgan Chase & Co. had a return on equity of 17.80% and a net margin of 20.70%. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s quarterly revenue was up 11.7% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted $3.57 earnings per share. Analysts expect that JPMorgan Chase & Co. will post 15.74 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Dividend Announcement

The firm also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, January 31st. Investors of record on Thursday, January 4th will be given a dividend of $1.05 per share. This represents a $4.20 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 2.44%. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, January 4th. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s dividend payout ratio is presently 25.89%.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In other JPMorgan Chase & Co. news, insider Ashley Bacon sold 3,368 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, January 16th. The shares were sold at an average price of $166.73, for a total value of $561,546.64. Following the transaction, the insider now owns 205,461 shares in the company, valued at approximately $34,256,512.53. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which can be accessed through this link. In related news, CEO Marianne Lake sold 32,243 shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. stock in a transaction on Tuesday, December 12th. The shares were sold at an average price of $160.00, for a total value of $5,158,880.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer now owns 131,962 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $21,113,920. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is accessible through the SEC website. Also, insider Ashley Bacon sold 3,368 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, January 16th. The stock was sold at an average price of $166.73, for a total value of $561,546.64. Following the transaction, the insider now directly owns 205,461 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $34,256,512.53. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. In the last 90 days, insiders sold 39,072 shares of company stock worth $6,297,103. Insiders own 0.79% of the company’s stock.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Company Profile

(Free Report)

JPMorgan Chase & Co operates as a financial services company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Consumer & Community Banking (CCB), Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB), Commercial Banking (CB), and Asset & Wealth Management (AWM). The CCB segment offers deposit, investment and lending products, cash management, and payments and services to consumers and small businesses; mortgage origination and servicing activities; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and credit cards, auto loans, leases, and travel services.

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Want to see what other hedge funds are holding JPM? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM – Free Report).

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January 27, 2024
Oldfather Financial Services LLC Cuts Stake in JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)

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Oldfather Financial Services LLC reduced its stake in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) by 3.5% during the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 5,812 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after selling 210 shares during the period. Oldfather Financial Services LLC’s holdings in JPMorgan Chase & Co. were worth $843,000 as of its most recent SEC filing.

Other large investors have also modified their holdings of the company. Atlas Private Wealth Management lifted its holdings in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 11.7% during the 2nd quarter. Atlas Private Wealth Management now owns 27,106 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $3,942,000 after acquiring an additional 2,834 shares during the period. Valicenti Advisory Services Inc. lifted its holdings in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 2.9% during the 3rd quarter. Valicenti Advisory Services Inc. now owns 79,891 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $11,586,000 after acquiring an additional 2,220 shares during the period. Hilltop Holdings Inc. lifted its holdings in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 4.4% during the 2nd quarter. Hilltop Holdings Inc. now owns 34,079 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $4,956,000 after acquiring an additional 1,439 shares during the period. Checchi Capital Advisers LLC increased its position in JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 4.4% during the 2nd quarter. Checchi Capital Advisers LLC now owns 39,447 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $5,737,000 after purchasing an additional 1,652 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Geneos Wealth Management Inc. increased its position in JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 14.0% during the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 50,991 shares of the financial services provider’s stock worth $7,416,000 after purchasing an additional 6,264 shares in the last quarter. 68.94% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

A number of analysts recently issued reports on the stock. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft raised shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and increased their target price for the stock from $140.00 to $190.00 in a research report on Tuesday, January 9th. Barclays increased their target price on shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $186.00 to $212.00 and gave the stock an “overweight” rating in a research report on Tuesday, January 2nd. BMO Capital Markets increased their target price on shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $167.00 to $171.00 and gave the stock a “market perform” rating in a research report on Monday, October 16th. Bank of America increased their target price on shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $177.00 to $188.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Thursday, January 4th. Finally, StockNews.com assumed coverage on shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. in a research report on Thursday, October 5th. They issued a “hold” rating for the company. Eight equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and eleven have given a buy rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company presently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $175.00.

Check Out Our Latest Research Report on JPM

Insider Buying and Selling

In related news, CEO Marianne Lake sold 32,243 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, December 12th. The shares were sold at an average price of $160.00, for a total value of $5,158,880.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer now owns 131,962 shares of the company’s stock, valued at $21,113,920. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through the SEC website. Corporate insiders own 0.79% of the company’s stock.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Stock Performance

Shares of JPM opened at $169.05 on Friday. JPMorgan Chase & Co. has a 1 year low of $123.11 and a 1 year high of $176.31. The company has a market cap of $488.73 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.09, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 2.18 and a beta of 1.13. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.25, a quick ratio of 0.90 and a current ratio of 0.90. The firm has a fifty day moving average of $160.03 and a 200-day moving average of $152.05.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM – Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Friday, January 12th. The financial services provider reported $3.04 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $3.73 by ($0.69). JPMorgan Chase & Co. had a net margin of 22.79% and a return on equity of 17.97%. The firm had revenue of $38.57 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $39.73 billion. During the same period last year, the firm posted $3.57 EPS. The business’s revenue was up 11.7% compared to the same quarter last year. As a group, equities analysts anticipate that JPMorgan Chase & Co. will post 16.61 earnings per share for the current year.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Announces Dividend

The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Wednesday, January 31st. Investors of record on Thursday, January 4th will be issued a $1.05 dividend. This represents a $4.20 annualized dividend and a yield of 2.48%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Thursday, January 4th. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s payout ratio is currently 25.07%.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Company Profile

(Free Report)

JPMorgan Chase & Co operates as a financial services company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Consumer & Community Banking (CCB), Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB), Commercial Banking (CB), and Asset & Wealth Management (AWM). The CCB segment offers deposit, investment and lending products, cash management, and payments and services to consumers and small businesses; mortgage origination and servicing activities; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and credit cards, auto loans, leases, and travel services.

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Want to see what other hedge funds are holding JPM? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM – Free Report).

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January 14, 2024
So Long, Apple and Tesla. We Built a Better Magnificent 7.
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Markets

Feature
By Nicholas Jasinski

Jan 12, 2024, 1:00 am EST
In this article

AMZN

AAPL

MSFT

NVDA

SPX

The Magnificent Seven had an extraordinary year in 2023—one that will be very difficult to repeat. And there will be a new Magnificent Seven in 2024.

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January 11, 2024
Citi TTS taps Icon Solutions for payments platform | Bank Automation News

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Citi Treasury and Trade Solutions invested in payments fintech Icon Solutions last week to modernize its core payments capabilities and expand its payments offerings. Citi TTS, the global banking arm of the $1.6 trillion Citibank, plans to use Icon Solutions’ technology to modernize its core payments capabilities globally, including Automated Clearing House payments, wires and […]

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Vaidik Trivedi

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December 13, 2023
Yields Are Raising a Big Red Flag. What the Risks Are to You.

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Call it the mystery of the rising 10-year yield—and it’s led investors straight to the so-called ‘ Treasury Term Premium .’

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October 17, 2023
Investors Hope Earnings Season Will Revive Stocks

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Investors Hope Earnings Season Will Revive Stocks

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October 8, 2023
Stock Plays for October: 3 to Watch, According to J.P. Morgan

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The stock market is entering October a little battered and bruised after September’s selloff. However, that also offers opportunities and

J.P. Morgan

analysts have some ideas for where to invest at the start of t…

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October 2, 2023
A Rough September Is Finally Over. Now Is the Time to Buy Stocks.

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The forecast for the market is cloudy at best—and there are no meatballs involved. Questions about the strength of the economy, what the Federal Reserve plans to do next, and even the path of corporate earnings won’t be answered for months, leaving certainty-starved investors feeling like they’re walking on quicksand. It’s a good time to…

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September 30, 2023
Plancorp LLC Sells 1,398 Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)

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Plancorp LLC trimmed its position in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) by 17.0% during the 1st quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund owned 6,803 shares of the financial services provider’s stock after selling 1,398 shares during the quarter. Plancorp LLC’s holdings in JPMorgan Chase & Co. were worth $886,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Several other large investors have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in JPM. Adirondack Retirement Specialists Inc. grew its stake in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 510.8% during the first quarter. Adirondack Retirement Specialists Inc. now owns 226 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $29,000 after purchasing an additional 189 shares during the last quarter. Nordwand Advisors LLC bought a new stake in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. during the first quarter valued at approximately $30,000. Boulder Wealth Advisors LLC bought a new stake in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. during the fourth quarter valued at approximately $43,000. Sageworth Trust Co grew its stake in shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. by 266.7% during the first quarter. Sageworth Trust Co now owns 407 shares of the financial services provider’s stock valued at $53,000 after purchasing an additional 296 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Freedom Wealth Alliance LLC acquired a new position in JPMorgan Chase & Co. in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $60,000. 70.10% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Stock Down 0.1 %

JPM opened at $147.19 on Friday. The stock’s fifty day simple moving average is $149.60 and its 200 day simple moving average is $141.06. The stock has a market cap of $427.75 billion, a PE ratio of 9.47, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.89 and a beta of 1.10. The company has a current ratio of 0.90, a quick ratio of 0.90 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.28. JPMorgan Chase & Co. has a 1-year low of $101.28 and a 1-year high of $159.38.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM – Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Friday, July 14th. The financial services provider reported $4.37 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $3.62 by $0.75. The business had revenue of $42.40 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $38.66 billion. JPMorgan Chase & Co. had a net margin of 23.45% and a return on equity of 17.29%. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 34.1% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period in the prior year, the company earned $2.76 EPS. As a group, research analysts expect that JPMorgan Chase & Co. will post 15.57 earnings per share for the current year.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other JPMorgan Chase & Co. news, Vice Chairman Peter Scher sold 2,482 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, June 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $141.39, for a total value of $350,929.98. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider now directly owns 41,333 shares in the company, valued at approximately $5,844,072.87. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. In other JPMorgan Chase & Co. news, Vice Chairman Peter Scher sold 2,482 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, June 15th. The shares were sold at an average price of $141.39, for a total value of $350,929.98. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider now directly owns 41,333 shares in the company, valued at approximately $5,844,072.87. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at this hyperlink. Also, General Counsel Stacey Friedman sold 4,310 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Monday, August 7th. The shares were sold at an average price of $157.16, for a total transaction of $677,359.60. Following the completion of the sale, the general counsel now directly owns 57,735 shares in the company, valued at $9,073,632.60. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Insiders sold a total of 13,593 shares of company stock worth $1,992,388 in the last three months. 0.79% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.

Analyst Ratings Changes

JPM has been the topic of several analyst reports. Citigroup lowered shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating and set a $160.00 price objective on the stock. in a report on Wednesday, July 12th. Barclays increased their target price on shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $179.00 to $182.00 in a report on Sunday, July 16th. StockNews.com assumed coverage on shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. in a report on Thursday, August 17th. They issued a “hold” rating on the stock. Wolfe Research upgraded shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from a “peer perform” rating to an “outperform” rating and set a $170.00 target price on the stock in a report on Friday, July 7th. Finally, Societe Generale lowered shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Monday, July 10th. Seven analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and twelve have issued a buy rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $165.89.

View Our Latest Analysis on JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Company Profile

(Free Report)

JPMorgan Chase & Co is a financial holding company, which engages in providing financial and investment banking services. The firm offers a range of investment banking products and services in all capital markets, including advising on corporate strategy and structure, capital raising in equity and debt markets, risk management, market making in cash securities and derivative instruments, and brokerage and research.

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Want to see what other hedge funds are holding JPM? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM – Free Report).

Receive News & Ratings for JPMorgan Chase & Co. Daily – Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts’ ratings for JPMorgan Chase & Co. and related companies with MarketBeat.com’s FREE daily email newsletter.

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August 25, 2023
‘Good news really is bad news’: Stocks hit a roadblock as strong retail sales reinforce soft-landing view

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Investors were jolted by a stronger-than-expected retail sales report on Tuesday, which underscores the dual-edged sword now facing markets.

July’s 0.7% surge in retail sales is helping to bolster the view that a resilient U.S. economy can avoid a recession, despite more than a year of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, the data also serves as another piece of information that some policy makers can use to support even more hikes in the final four months of this year, and left the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield…

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August 15, 2023
‘Eye-popping’ borrowing need from U.S. Treasury raises risk of buyers’ fatigue

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Just a day after the Treasury Department released a $1 trillion borrowing estimate for the third quarter, questions are being raised about the extent to which foreign and domestic buyers can continue to keep up their demand for U.S. government debt.

Further details about Treasury’s financing need will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday. For now, the $1 trillion estimate, the largest ever for the July-September period, has analysts concluding that the U.S. is facing a deteriorating fiscal deficit outlook and continuing pressure to borrow.

At stake for the broader fixed-income market is whether the presence of large ongoing auctions over the coming quarter and beyond will lead to a prolonged period where demand from potential buyers might begin to dry up, Treasury yields edge higher, and the government-debt market returns to some form of illiquidity.

“You can make the argument that since 2020, with the onset of Covid, that Treasury issuances have been met with reasonably good demand,” said Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies
JEF,
-1.75%.
“But as we go forward and further away from that period of time, it’s hard to see where that same flow of dollars can come from. We may be looking at recent history and drawing too much of a conclusion that this borrowing need will be easily met.”

Simons said in a phone interview Tuesday that “the risk is that you don’t get continued demand from foreign or domestic buyers of fixed income.” The result could be “six to nine months where the market is fatigued by bigger auction sizes, Treasurys become more and more difficult to trade, there’s a grind higher in yields, and there may be issues with liquidity where markets may not be so deep.” Still, he expects such a period, if there is one, to be less acute than what was seen in the 2013 taper tantrum or last year’s volatility in the U.K. bond market.

On Monday, the Treasury revealed a $1.007 trillion third-quarter borrowing estimate that was $274 billion higher than what it had expected in May. The estimate — which Simons calls “eye-popping” — assumes an end-of-September cash balance of $650 billion, and has gone up partly because of projections for lower receipts and higher outlays, according to Treasury officials.

Monday’s estimate is the largest ever for the third quarter, though not relative to other parts of the year. In May 2020, a few months after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., Treasury gave an almost $3 trillion borrowing estimate for the April-June quarter of that year.

For the upcoming fourth quarter, Treasury is now expecting to borrow $852 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $750 billion. According to strategist Jay Barry and others at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM,
-1.05%,
the third- and fourth-quarter estimates “suggest that, at face value, Treasury continues to expect a wider budget deficit” for the 2023 fiscal year.

As of Tuesday, investors appeared to be less focused on the Treasury’s borrowing needs than on signs of continued strength in the U.S. labor market, which raises the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates. One-
TMUBMUSD01Y,
5.400%
through 30-year Treasury yields
TMUBMUSD30Y,
4.100%
were all higher as data showed demand for workers is still strong. Meanwhile, all three major U.S. stock indexes
DJIA,
+0.05%

SPX,
-0.33%

COMP,
-0.41%
were mostly lower in morning trading.

According to Simons, who the most likely buyers will be at Treasury’s upcoming auctions will depend on where the department decides to focus its issuances. If the focus is on bills, then money-market mutual funds could “move some cash over,” he said. And if it’s on long-duration coupons, it would be “real money” players such as insurers, pension funds, hedge funds and bond funds — though much will rely on inflows from clients “before demand would pick up.”

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August 1, 2023
AT&T, Verizon Investors Have More Than Lead Cables to Worry About

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AT&T, Verizon Investors Have More Than Lead Cables to Worry About

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July 23, 2023
Wall Street’s most AI-enthusiastic bank delivers machine-generated research notes

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JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank, has been wading into artificial intelligence to a greater extent than its rivals and is now producing a series of research notes that are AI-generated.

The move represents something of a step forward in an area that’s been seen as ripe for disruption — investment research — at a time when the AI revolution is taking hold on Wall Street. At JPMorgan, AI is being used to create short summaries of human-produced reports and to link those reports inside the firm’s Cross Asset Spotlight.

Questions remain over how far machine-generated research can go in replacing humans, and regulations on it are still in the early stages — putting pressure on Wall Street banks to be completely transparent about how their research is being put together. Research reports are generally subject to rules from Finra, or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, which require that a qualified registered principal approves a report prior to distribution to the public. Banks may also include legal or compliance approvals as part of their process. Through a spokeswoman, JPMorgan
JPM,
-0.23%
declined to comment for this article.

In a disclaimer attached to JPMorgan’s Cross Asset Spotlight note, primary authors Thomas Salopek and Federico Manicardi cited the large amount of content that investors need to sift through in constantly-moving markets as part of the reason that AI is being used. Salopek and Manicardi said they can produce an AI-generated summary of the most relevant and recent analyst reports on a particular topic or event — as they did on Tuesday with a focus on earnings, China, the soft-landing scenario, and AI’s impact on U.S. interest rates.

“What seems to be going on here is that they’re using an AI-based system to build a summary publication of existing human-generated reports that are already out there,” said Michael Wagner, co-founder and chief operating officer of Omnia Family Wealth, a multifamily office based in Miami, which oversees more than $2.5 billion and is already using AI to assist with its client conversations.

“It certainly is still relatively unusual, but I think analyst jobs are safe for now,” Wagner said in an email to MarketWatch. “It’s an interesting development that shows how AI-driven automation could impact labor markets. If relatively repetitive ‘knowledge work’ can be automated in this fashion, banks and law firms may not need as many lower-level employees as they do today.”

New York-based JPMorgan has been leading Wall Street’s shift toward AI in a number of different ways. From February through April, the bank advertised more than 3,600 jobs globally that are all related to AI, according to Bloomberg. In May, it filed a patent application for its own software, known as IndexGPT, which can be used for analyzing and selecting securities for its clients. And JPMorgan has also created a tool that scans speeches by Federal Reserve officials to detect policy shifts and potential trading signals.

WSJ: Pro Take: JPMorgan’s Fedspeak Evaluator Is Unsure About This Week’s Rate Decision

Rivals of JPMorgan haven’t gone quite as far. Representatives of BofA Securities
BAC,
+1.06%,
Citi
C,
-0.64%,
and Deutsche Bank
DB,
+0.66%
said their organizations haven’t produced any AI-generated research notes.

Goldman Sachs
GS,
+0.96%
has written about the economic and market impacts of AI, but hasn’t used the technology to write text for its research yet, according to economist Joseph Briggs and chief global strategist Praveen Korapaty. Morgan Stanley
MS,
+0.25%
declined to comment through a spokeswoman.

As of Friday afternoon, U.S. stocks
DJIA,
+0.20%

SPX,
+0.25%

COMP,
+0.06%
were heading higher as investors prepared for a major rebalancing of the Nasdaq-100 index and the expiration of trillions of dollars of stock option contracts. Meanwhile, Treasury yields were mixed ahead of next week’s policy announcement by the Federal Reserve.

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July 21, 2023
Virgin Islands seeking at least $190 million in damages from JP Morgan over Jeffrey Epstein

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The U.S. Virgin Islands said it will seek damages of at least $190 million from JP Morgan Chase & Co.
JPM,
+0.60%,
according to a filing Friday. In a late Friday report, CNBC said the damages were related to a lawsuit that accuses the bank of protecting customer Jeffery Epstein. JP Morgan shares were down 0.4% after hours Friday, following a 0.6% rise to close the regular session at $149.77.

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July 14, 2023
S&P 500 ends above 4,500 level for first time in 15 months as stocks gain ahead of bank earnings

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Stocks rose for a fourth day in a row on Thursday, a day ahead of second-quarter earnings from America’s biggest lenders. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.14%
rose about 46 points, or 0.1%, ending near 34,394, according to preliminary data from FactSet. But the S&P 500 index
SPX,
+0.85%
gained 0.9% to end at 4,509, clearing the 4,500 mark for the first time since April 5, 2022 when it ended at 4,545.86, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
+1.58%
scored another blockbuster day, up 1.6%. Investors have been optimistic as inflation pressures ease and as perhaps the best-telegraphed U.S. economic recession in recent history has yet to materialize. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been charging higher on buzz about AI technology, with much of this year’s stock-market gains fueled by a small group of stocks. The risk-on tone ahead of earnings from JPMorgan Chase and Co.,
JPM,
+0.49%
Wells Fargo
WFC,
+1.04%
and Citigroup
C,
+0.63%,
had the U.S. dollar
DXY,
-0.74%
earlier on pace to end at its lowest level since early April 2022. Treasury yields also continued to fall, with the 10-year
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.768%
rate back down to 3.759%, after topping 4% in recent weeks. The six biggest banks are expected to issue a deluge of fresh debt after earnings, despite the Federal Reserve having sharply increased rates and borrowing costs for businesses and households to tame inflation.

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July 13, 2023
This earnings season, expect companies to keep margins high ‘the usual way, by firing people’

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Writ large, corporate America had a pretty profitable pandemic.

Lockdowns left shoppers burning stimulus cash on AirPods and Nintendo Switches to dilute boredom and anxiety. Supply convulsions from the war in Ukraine rerouted spending from things to pass the time to things, like groceries, that were needed to survive.

One way or another, demand for things overwhelmed the ability of workers, factories, boats and trucks to supply and ship them. And the biggest sellers of those goods—to cover their own costs, take advantage of the dislocation or both—hiked prices, leading to profit margins in 2021 and 2022 that were higher than anything seen before the pandemic.

But in 2023, the trend reversed. Margins are falling, putting pressure on executives to keep prices elevated while cutting costs, and potentially staff, to stave off investor tantrums. And as higher prices exhaust consumers, more bearish economists insist that a recession is set to start at some point between now and the end of the year.

So when companies report second-quarter earnings this week, it’ll be something of a moment of truth for the economy. Markets will get more detail on what decisions business leaders are making to replicate two years of near-fantasyland profit, amid differing views on how much more room they have to lean on further price increases. And they’ll get the first glimpse of what executives think about the prospect of a downturn.

“It keeps getting disproved by the actual numbers,” Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks, said of the recession forecasts. “The bears keep pushing it out to the next quarter and the next quarter. “So the biggest thing I’ll be watching out for is whether we are in the same kind of trend line we’ve been seeing the last few quarters or if things really are weakening.”

He added later: “The second half has kind of become the proving point for the bearish narrative.”

Q2 Earnings, Delta, JPMorgan

For companies in the S&P 500 index overall, FactSet forecasts a 7.2% drop in per-share profit for the second quarter, according to a report from the firm on Friday. That would still be pretty bad—the biggest percentage drop since the second quarter of 2020, when the pandemic strangled the economy and sent earnings 31.6% lower.

But for the rest of the year, for now, Wall Street expects a comeback. They see profit inching 0.3% higher in the third quarter. And for the fourth, earnings are expected to be even better, with gains of 7.8%.

The first big companies to report second-quarter results this week, among them JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Delta Air Lines, will set the tone.

See also: Megabank profits on tap after eventful Q2 of bank failures and climbing interest rates

Related: Jefferies upgrades JPMorgan Chase to buy from hold ahead of Q2 profit update

Results from Delta
DAL,
+0.41%,
which arrive on Thursday, will be a window into whether customers feel good enough about their savings and job security to still take vacations, and whether the business backdrop is solid enough to justify more corporate travel. And as fuel costs fall, Morgan Stanley analysts said the quarter would be the first since the pandemic “with no asterisks from costs and capacity.”

“While the Airlines have sounded extremely confident on demand all year, their visibility / confidence has only extended as far as the summer,” the analysts said in a research note. “However, we will now start to get our first glimpses into what the fall booking curve looks like, which is important to fend off the (second-half) demand bear case.”

As a one-stop shop for financial matters, JPMorgan’s
JPM,
+1.56%
results, due Friday, will offer an outline for the economy as a whole for that second half. Markets have rebounded. But higher interest rates have made it more difficult for customers to borrow money, the landscape for dealmaking remains cloudy, and worries have endured following the failure of a handful of banks earlier this year.

Mian said that he didn’t personally buy into the case that the economy was headed for a bigger turn south, citing strength in the labor market and household finances. But he said that the pessimists still had plenty of reasons to stay pessimistic—amid weakness in manufacturing—and that they could push their forecasts for a recession out to next year even if the earnings for 2023’s second half aren’t that bad.

Within the tech industry, large companies like Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
+1.30%
have helped lead a broader rebound this year, after pandemic-era digital demand dried up last year. Ivana Delevska, founder and chief investment officer of Spear Invest, said she expected that rebound to continue this year, as tech companies lap weaker trends in 2022 and businesses shake off their hesitation to spend on IT and cloud services and stampede toward AI.

“The main driver on top of easy comparisons will be AI,” she said. “This is really the biggest theme in our portfolio right now.”

Margins, AI and ‘firing people’

The results for the second quarter will come as more economists point to efforts by corporations to pad or protect profit margins—largely through price increases—as one of the primary drivers of inflation over the past year. Some economists worry that executives’ efforts to keep up with investors’ higher profit expectations will come at the expense of workers.

“Firms will offset margin pressure in the usual way, by firing people,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a report in April.

“The idea that margins have to fall, because they rose to unsustainable heights during the pandemic, likely will cut little ice with markets, which will reward firms taking the most aggressive action to limit the (per-share profit) hit,” he continued.

See also: More than 216,000 global tech employees have lost their jobs since the start of 2023

Within the S&P 500 index, last year’s overall profit margin—or the percentage of sales that end up as profit—came in at 12.12%, according to Dow Jones Market Data, in line with the record 12.19% recorded in 2021. Before those two years, the index had never produced a profit margin higher than 10.75%, records dating back to 1999 show.

Put another way, of the $15.45 trillion in sales that those 500 companies put up last year, $1.87 trillion went straight to profits. Every 0.1% of the S&P 500’s margins in 2023 added $1.87 billion to those businesses’ bank accounts.

Suspicions have grown over the past year that companies were using the convulsions to the economy—like 2021’s supply-chain fiasco and the war in Ukraine—to ram through price increases and keep prices higher. Costs for things like oil, crops and shipping have fallen since. Wage growth, one of the biggest costs that businesses have passed onto consumers, has slowed, and hasn’t caught up with inflation.

UBS analyst Paul Donovan, in February, noted that real wage growth—or wage growth that factors in the impacts from inflation—had been negative for 22 straight months. And he said on Friday that that growth had been “catastrophically bad.”

“Despite low unemployment, workers have not been able (to) achieve their most basic aim—maintaining living standards,” he said on Friday. “While real wage growth should turn positive as inflation falls, this argues against a structural shift of power from employers to workers.”

Efforts by executives to repeat the abnormal gains for investors through a formula of price hikes and layoffs represent a multi-pronged threat for already-struggling consumers: The prospect of losing a job, yet still having to pay up at checkout, even if weaker demand overall nudges the nation into a downturn. Some analysts also worry that the Federal Reserve’s current prescription to bring down higher prices—raising borrowing costs and engineering a slowdown in the job market, thereby weakening demand and lowering prices—will inadvertently widen economic inequality.

Rivals’ price movements

But industry bellwethers have plenty of sway to prop up prices and margins. Businesses, to some extent, have trained customers to expect higher prices. Industry consolidation has also allowed larger companies to bend some of the most basic laws of economics.

Isabella Weber, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told MarketWatch in April that while mainstream theory dictates that prices reflect the laws of supply and demand, that theory doesn’t always gibe with an economy where corporate concentration has increased.

Weber said that while recessions can pull prices lower, firms that are so-called “price makers” tend not to lower their prices as much as others. Sometimes, they may even raise prices even as demand falls, she said.

“In our exploration of earnings calls we find that large firms with market power set their prices focusing on target returns with a careful eye on the price movements of their competitors,” she said over email. “Thus, prices are largely the outcomes of strategic interactions between firms.”

Weber said that for decades, economists in wealthy nations hadn’t thought much about inflation, and that when it returned last year, it was thought about only in basic terms. That is, there was too much demand, or workers had too much money, or central banks were dumping too much money into the economy. Rate hikes from the Fed, the thinking went, would raise borrowing costs, cool off investment and reverse those trends.

“Within this interpretation of inflation, there is no room for a connection between rising profits and rising prices,” she told MarketWatch. “Given this dominant mindset, pointing to the role of profits was heretic, since it implied a fundamentally different understanding of inflation.”

“Furthermore,” she continued, “it meant questioning the policies maintained by central banks around the world, most notably austerity that causes harm to working people who are already most harmed by inflation itself. So this is as much about economics as it is about politics.”

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July 11, 2023
JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi and Morgan Stanley boost dividends after Fed stress tests

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Major U.S. banks including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced dividend increases late Friday, in the wake of the results of the Federal Reserve’s latest bank stress tests earlier this week.

JPMorgan
JPM,
+1.40%
said it plans to raise the bank’s dividend to $1.05 a share, up from $1 a share, for the third quarter, subject to board approval.

The stress tests “show that banks are resilient — even while withstanding severe shocks — and continue to serve as a pillar of strength to the financial system and broader economy,” JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said in a statement.

“We continue to maintain a fortress balance sheet with strong capital levels and robust liquidity,” Dimon added.

Morgan Stanley
MS,
+0.19%
said it will increase its quarterly dividend to 85 cents a share from the current 77.5 cents a share, beginning with its third-quarter dividend. The bank also said that its board reauthorized a multiyear share buyback totaling as much as $20 billion, without an expiration date, beginning in the third quarter.

Don’t miss: Fed stress tests see large banks able to handle recession and slide in commercial-real-estate prices

See also: Wall Street upbeat on banks after ‘mostly positive’ Fed stress tests results

“The results of the Federal Reserve’s stress test demonstrate the durability of our transformed business model. We remain committed to returning capital to our shareholders and are raising our dividend by 7.5 cents,” Chief Executive James P. Gorman said in a statement.

Wells Fargo
WFC,
+0.54%,
for its part, said it will increase its dividend to 35 cents a share, up from 30 cents a share, subject to board approval. It said it has the capacity to undertake a share buyback, “which will be routinely assessed as part of the company’s internal capital adequacy framework that considers current market conditions, potential changes to regulatory capital requirements, and other risk factors,” without elaborating further.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
GS,
-0.17%
said it would raise its dividend, to $2.75 a share from $2.50 a share, starting July 1.

Market Pulse: Goldman Sachs reportedly looking to exit Apple partnership

Citigroup Inc. C said its board had approved an increase in its quarterly dividend to 53 cents a share, from 51 cents, also for the third quarter.

Citi Chief Executive Jane Fraser said that, while the bank “would have clearly preferred not to see an increase in our stress capital buffer, these results still demonstrate Citi’s financial resilience through all economic environments, including the severely adverse scenario envisioned in the Federal Reserve’s stress test.”

Citi’s “robust capital and liquidity position, as well as the diversification of our funding and our business model, allow Citi to continue to be a source of strength for our clients and navigate challenging macro environments securely,” Fraser said.

The bank bought back $1 billon in shares in the second quarter and will continue to evaluate its capital actions, the chief executive said. “We are completely committed to simplifying Citi, improving returns and delivering value to our shareholders.”

Shares of Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo rose 1.5% and 0.1%, respectively, in the after-hours session after ending the regular trading day up a respective 0.2% and 0.5%. JPMorgan shares edged up 0.2% in the extended session after closing 1.4% higher on Friday. Citigroup shares were up 0.2%, while Goldman’s were largely unchanged.

Bill Peters contributed.

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June 30, 2023
Banks Boost Dividends After Passing Stress Test. Their Stocks Are on the Rise.

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Banks Boost Dividends After Passing Stress Test. Their Stocks Are on the Rise.

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June 30, 2023
Fed stress tests see large banks able to handle recession and slide in commercial real estate prices

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The U.S. Federal Reserve said Wednesday that all 23 banks in this year’s stress tests withstood a hypothetical “severe” global recession and losses of up to $541 billion as well as a 40% decline in commercial real estate prices.

The banks in the 2023 stress tests hold about 20% of the office and downtown commercial real estate loans held by banks and should be able to handle office space weakness that has loomed amid slack demand for space in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The projected decline in commercial real estate prices, combined with
the substantial increase in office vacancies, contributes to projected loss rates on office properties that are roughly triple the levels reached during the 2008 financial crisis,” the Fed said in a prepared statement.

Also read: FDIC studying plan to include smaller U.S. banks in Basel III capital requirements after failures in early 2023

Fed vice chair of supervision Michael S. Barr said the exams confirm that the U.S. banking system remains resilient, even in the wake of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank earlier this year.

Barr also alluded to comments he made last week when he said the Fed should consider a wider range of risks that could derail banks in a process he described as reverse stress tests.

“We should remain humble about how risks can arise and continue our
work to ensure that banks are resilient to a range of economic scenarios, market shocks, and other stresses,” Barr said in a prepared statement.

The bank stress tests are closely watched because they help determine what capital banks have left over for stock buybacks and dividends. However, expectations are not particularly high at the current time for any huge payouts to investors given talk by regulators about high capital requirements tied to Basel III international banking laws, as well as a challenging economic environment with interest rates on the rise in an attempt to cool economic activity and tame inflation.

Senior Fed officials said banks will be clear to provide updates on their stock buybacks and dividends after the market close on Friday.

For the first time, the Fed conducted an “exploratory market shock” on the trading books of the U.S.’s eight largest banks including greater inflationary pressures and rising interest rates.

The results showed that the largest banks’ trading books were resilient to the rising rate environment tested. That group included Bank of America Corp., the Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup Inc., the Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. , Morgan Stanley , State Street Corp, and Wells Fargo & Co.

Senior federal officials said they’re studying a wider application of the exploratory market shock to other banks.

In last year’s tests, the Fed did not place an emphasis on a rapid rise in interest rates partly because expectations were high for a recession with lower interest rates in 2023. Instead, interest rates rose. That market dynamic was a factor in the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which sold securities with lower interest rates at a loss to cover an increase in withdrawals, only to spark a run on the bank.

All told, the Fed said the 23 banks in the stress test managed to maintain their capital requirements even with a projected $541 billion in losses. (See breakdown below).

U.S. Federal Reserve chart

Under the most severe stress, the aggregate common equity risk-based capital ratio would decline by 2.3% to a minimum of 10.1%.

Other facets of the hypothetical recession included a “substantial” increase in office vacancies, a 38% reduction in house prices and a 6.4% increase in U.S. unemployment to a high of 10%. The drop in house prices in this year’s stress tests is worse than the decline in the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

“The results looked pretty good,” said Maclyn Clouse, a professor of finance at the University of Denver’s Daniels College of Business. “The banks were in pretty good shape from a capital standpoint and they’d be able to withstand some shock. It’s good news.”

Barr’s remark on Fed officials being “humble” reflects the fact that regulators largely missed the Global Financial Crisis as well as the sudden demise of Silicon Valley Bank in March.

“They need to be humble,” Clouse said. “We need to be a little more humble about the results and a little more alert about new challenges that normally haven’t been looked at with stress tests.”

This year, the banks that took part in the stress tests including Bank of America Corp.
BAC,
-0.60%,
Bank of New York Mellon Corp.
BK,
-0.64%,
Capitol One Financial Corp.
COF,
+0.52%,
Charles Schwab Corp.
SCHW,
+1.01%,
Citigroup
C,
-0.37%,
Citizens Financial Group Inc.
CFG,
-1.61%
and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
GS,
+0.07%.

Other exams took place at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
JPM,
-0.44%,
M&T Bank Corp.
MTB,
-0.18%,
Morgan Stanley
MS,
-0.52%,
Northern Trust Corp.
NTRS,
-0.46%,
PNC Financial Services Group Inc.
PNC,
-0.36%,
State Street Corp.
STT,
-0.62%,
Truist Financial Corp.
TFC,
-0.07%,
U.S. Bancorp
USB,
-0.71%
and Wells Fargo & Co.
WFC,
-0.71%.

In 2022, the Fed said banks could withstand 10% unemployment and a 55% drop in stock prices as part of the year-ago stress test.

KBW analyst David Konrad said in a June 22 research note he expected no “huge surprises” in addition to capital uncertainty around dividends and buybacks already expected by Wall Street.

Providing guidance on how the Fed will study bank strength, Fed chair of supervision Michael Barr said last week that the Fed needs to consider “reverse stress tests” to look at “different ways an institution can die” instead of simply submitting banks to a specific list of hypothetical hardships.

“We have to work harder at looking at patterns we haven’t seen before,” Barr said at an appearance on June 20.

Also Read: Fed official eyes ‘reverse stress tests’ for banks as results awaited after 2023 bank failures

Also read: FDIC studying plan to include smaller U.S. banks in Basel III capital requirements after failures in early 2023

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June 28, 2023
HELOCs are back. Cash-strapped borrowers are tapping into a $33 trillion pile of home equity.

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Goodbye pandemic refi cash-outs. Hello HELOCs?

Home-equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and second-lien mortgages have been staging a notable comeback as U.S. homeowners look for liquidity and ways to monetize the pandemic surge in home prices, according to BofA Global.

It used to be that borrowers sitting on an estimated $33 trillion pile of equity built up in their homes could simply refinance and pull out cash, until the Federal Reserve’s rapid rate hikes began squelching the option.

Now, with mortgage rates above 6%, and the Fed penciling in two more rate hikes in 2023, cash-strapped homeowners have been seeking out alternatives to extract cash from their properties.

While cash-out refinances tumbled 83% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from a year before, HELOCs rose 7% and home-equity loans grew 31%, according to the latest TransUnion data.

“Borrower demand remains high, particularly given household budgets have been pressured by rising food and energy costs,” a BofA Global credit strategy team led by Pratik Gupta’s, wrote in a weekly client note.

Risky loans to subprime borrowers and home equity products helped precipitate the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and the era’s wave of devastating home foreclosures.

At the time, households had more than $1.2 trillion of home equity revolving and available credit (see chart), whereas the figure was closer to $900 billion in the first quarter of this year.

Home equity products are making a big comeback as households seek liquidity

BofA Global, New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax

The pandemic saw home prices surge, giving a big boost to home equity levels. The Urban Institute pegged home equity in the U.S. at $33 trillion as of May, up from a post-2008 peak of about $15 trillion.

BofA analysts argued this time home equity products look different, with roughly $17 trillion of tappable equity across 117 million U.S. homeowners, and most borrowers having high credit scores and low rates.

“The vast majority of that — $14 trillion — is from the cohort of homeowners who own their homes free & clear,” Gupta’s team wrote.

Another $1.6 trillion of equity could be available from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae borrowers, according to his team, which pegged an estimated 94% of all outstanding U.S. first-lien home mortgages now below 4% rates.

Major banks own the bulk of home equity balances (see chart), led by Bank of America Corp.
BAC,
+1.23%,
PNC Bank
PNC,
+0.57%,
Wells Fargo,
WFC,
-0.05%,
JPMorgan Chase
JPM,
+0.24%
and Citizens
CFG,
+0.35%,
according to the team, which notes several other major banks appear to have hit pause on their programs.

A smaller portion of HELOCs and second-lien mortgages have been securitized, or packaged up and sold as bond deals, while nonbank lenders have been offering the products as well.

Stocks closed lower Monday, taking a pause from a recent rally, as investors monitored weekend tumult in Russia. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.04%
was less than 0.1% lower, while the S&P 500 index
SPX,
-0.45%
was off 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-1.16%
fell 1.2%, according to FactSet.

Related: The economy was supposed to cave in by now. It hasn’t — and GDP is set to rise again.

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June 26, 2023