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TCU football is aiming to end the regular season on a high note with one final game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at 2:30 p.m. Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium (broadcast on Fox).
Neither team has played particularly well this month, with the Bearcats (7-4, 5-3 Big 12) in the middle of a three-game losing streak, while the Horned Frogs (7-4, 4-4) have dropped two of their past three games.
Both teams went from being in the Big 12 title race to merely jockeying for bowl position in the final week of the regular season. However, despite that disappointment both teams showed some fight last week as TCU picked up a win over a ranked Houston team, while Cincinnati gave BYU a run for its money.
Both teams have shown flashes of being Top 25-caliber teams, but they’ve also had performances that have left their fan bases scratching their heads. It’s what makes this game fascinating.
Here are three reasons why TCU will come out on top, or end the year with another disappointing defeat:
Three reasons TCU will defeat Cincinnati
1. Scott Satterfield’s struggles
The month of November hasn’t been kind to head coach Scott Satterfield since he took over at Cincinnati. The Bearcats are just 1-10 in November under Satterfield and have allowed 40 points four times and 30 points seven times during that stretch.
The offense goes from being explosive in September and October to a shell of itself. The Bearcats have scored more than 24 points just once and have scored fewer than 20 points six times under Satterfield in November, including last year’s 20-13 defeat to the Horned Frogs.
Based on this trend alone, TCU has a good shot at extending Cincinnati’s losing streak to four games.
2. Jeremy Payne rising?
The emergence of TCU sophomore running back Jeremy Payne has been a significant storyline for this season and the future, as Payne is making his case to be the starter next season. He recorded his first career 100-yard game last week in the win over Houston and also rushed for 71 yards against Iowa State and 55 against BYU’s tough defense.
Payne was known for his speed and his ability to be a change-of-pace back, but now he’s beginning to show he can be an every-down running back. Cincinnati’s run defense has been woeful during its losing streak, and Payne will have a chance for another big performance.
3. Eric McAlister’s last stand
Despite having better numbers than Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, Eric McAlister was snubbed at being one of the three finalists for the Biletnikoff Award, given annually to the nation’s best receiver. That was one of the many preseason goals the talented receiver had, and falling short could serve as extra motivation in what could be his final game as a Horned Frog.
McAlister has produced at least 60 yards in eight straight games, with five games of 100 yards or more during that stretch. Simply put, nobody has been able to slow McAlister down this season, and the Bearcats’ secondary has also struggled during the past three weeks.
Another 100-yard game by McAlister would significantly improve TCU’s chances of winning.
Three reasons Cincinnati will defeat TCU
1. Dontay Corleone
The All-American nose tackle nicknamed “The Godfather” will end his career as one of the greatest players in program history. Corleone hasn’t quite had his usual all-conference production this season — 11 tackles and two quarterback hits — but he’s still the type of player who can single-handedly disrupt a team’s game plan if the offensive line isn’t ready.
The Horned Frogs struggled against the massive interior defensive lines of BYU and Iowa State. Those teams had more depth than Cincinnati, but neither had a player quite like Corleone. If Corleone is able to live in the backfield or occupy blocks to allow talented Bearcats defenders like Jake Golday to make plays, TCU’s offense could be in trouble.
2. TCU’s struggling offense
The Horned Frogs’ offense has had a rough month, with three straight games under 20 points during their 1-2 stretch. Last week against Houston, the offense continued to shoot itself in the foot with four turnovers, including three interceptions by Josh Hoover. TCU also had two touchdowns wiped off the board due to penalties.
Even if you want to argue the calls were weak, it doesn’t change the fact that the offense isn’t executing at a high enough level. Hoover in particular must play better, as he’s thrown seven interceptions in the past three games.
If TCU makes those types of mistakes against Cincinnati, it could open the door for another upset at “The Carter.”
3. Brendan Sorsby’s mobility
Once again TCU will face a dual-threat quarterback when Brendan Sorsby rolls into town. The Horned Frogs have a lot of experience facing mobile quarterbacks this season, but it doesn’t make the challenge any easier. Houston’s offense was lifeless last week until Conner Weigman started being more aggressive scrambling outside the pocket.
Sorsby is also capable of having those moments, and he showed that against TCU last year when he rushed for 93 yards. Sorsby is good enough as a passer and Cincinnati has dangerous receivers, but TCU’s top priority has to be to keep Sorsby in the pocket and make him beat the defense with his arm.
Prediction
The game will mirror last year’s contest with TCU leading most of the way, but the defense needing a late stop to clinch it.
The Horned Frogs win 27-23 to finish the regular season 8-4.
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Steven Johnson
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